ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • Books  (17)
  • Articles  (206)
  • climate change
  • risk assessment
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (219)
  • Medicine  (4)
Collection
  • Books  (17)
  • Articles  (206)
Keywords
Language
  • 1
    Unknown
    Rijeka : InTech
    Keywords: evapotranspiration ; water flux ; moisture evaporation ; climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: Chapter 1: Comparison of Evapotranspiration Methods Under Limited Data by Hsin-Fu Yeh --- Chapter 2: Assessment and Prediction of Evapotranspiration Based on Scintillometry and Meteorological Datasets by Antonin Poisson, Angel Fernandez, Dario G. Gomez, Régis Barillé and Benoit Chorro --- Chapter 3: Sensitivity of Evapotranspiration Models to Onsite and Offsite Meteorological Data for a Poderosa Pine Forest by Wonsook Ha, Abraham E. Springer, Frances C. O'Donnell and Thomas E. Kolb --- Chapter 4: Evapotranspiration in Northern Agro-Ecosystems: Numerical Simulation and Experimental Comparison by Watcharee Ruairuen, Gilberto J. Fochesatto, Marco Bittelli, Elena B. Sparrow, Mingchu Zhang and William Schnabel --- Chapter 5: Moisture Evaporation from Granular Biopesticides Containing Quiescent Entomopathogenic Nematodes by Carlos Inocencio Cortés-Martínez, Jaime Ruiz-Vega and Gabino Alberto Martínez-Gutiérrez
    Pages: Online-Ressource (114 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9789535131748
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Unknown
    Basel, Beijing, Wuhan, Barcelona, Belgrade : MDPI
    Keywords: climate change ; coastal forcing ; storm surge ; waves ; physical impacts on coasts ; environmental risk in coastal zones ; economic risks
    Description / Table of Contents: Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 141; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040141 --- Regional Scale Risk-Informed Land-Use Planning Using Probabilistic Coastline Recession Modelling and Economical Optimisation: East Coast of Sri Lanka / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(4), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040120 --- Optimized Reliability Based Upgrading of Rubble Mound Breakwaters in a Changing Climate / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030092 --- Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Coarse Scale Marsh Migration on Storm Surge Hydrodynamics and Waves on Coastal Protected Areas in the Chesapeake Bay / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030086 --- Significance of Fluvial Sediment Supply in Coastline Modelling at Tidal Inlets / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030079 --- Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030076 --- Failure of Grass Covered Flood Defences with Roads on Top Due to Wave Overtopping: A Probabilistic Assessment Method / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(3), 74; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6030074 --- Modelling Hydrodynamic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Wave-Dominated Australian Estuaries with Differing Geomorphology / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020066 --- Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoS Model / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 59; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020059 --- An Effective Modelling Approach to Support Probabilistic Flood Forecasting in Coastal Cities—Case Study: Can Tho, Mekong Delta, Vietnam / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020055 --- Probabilistic Assessment of Overtopping of Sea Dikes with Foreshores including Infragravity Waves and Morphological Changes: Westkapelle Case Study / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(2), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6020048 --- How Well Do AR5 Sea Surface-Height Model Projections Match Observational Rates of Sea-Level Rise at the Regional Scale? / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010011 --- Two Centuries of Climate Change and Climate Variability, East Coast Australia / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010003 --- Jump to: Editorial, Research / Open AccessFeature PaperReview / Quantifying Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: A Review / J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2018, 6(1), 5; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse6010005
    Pages: Online-Ressource (IX, 285 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    Edition: Printed Edition of the Special Issue Published in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
    ISBN: 9783038974826
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: dams ; forestry ; climate change ; downstream impacts ; integrated water resources management ; natural resources ; fish ; environmental policy ; wetlands ; economic growth ; drinking water ; environmental water allocation ; sustainable water ; sustainable development ; environmental risk ; water infrastructure ; environmental flows ; water policy ; benefit sharing ; environmental management ; environmental impact assessment
    Description / Table of Contents: This book advances the understanding and integration in operational terms of environmental flows (water allocation) into integrated water resources management (IWRM). Based on an in-depth analysis of 17 global water policy, plan, and project case studies, it addresses the highly contested complexities of environmentally responsible water resources development, broadens the global perspectives on "equitable sharing" and "sustainable use" of water resources, and expands the definitions of "benefits sharing" in high-risk water resources development. The book fills a major gap in knowledge on IWRM and forms an important contribution to the ongoing discourse on climate change adaptation in the water sector.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XVIII, 189 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821380123
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Unknown
    London : Bloomsbury Academic
    Keywords: climate change ; climate crisis
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction: Climate Crisis and the Cultural Imagination / pp. 1–22 --- Chapter 1. Collapse / pp. 23–48 --- Chapter 2. Pastoral / pp. 49–78 --- Chapter 3. Urban / pp. 79–104 --- Chapter 4. Polar / pp. 105–132 --- Conclusion / pp. 133–145
    Pages: Online-Ressource (VIII, 184 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781474271158
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    Keywords: climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: 1. Planning the Adaptation to Climate Change in Cities: an Introduction / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Cristofori, Elena --- 2. Climate Change Characterisation and Planning in Large Tropical and Subtropical Cities / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Cristofori, Elena --- 3. Extreme Events Assessment Methodology as a Tool for Engineering Adaptation Measures – Case Study of North Coast of São Paulo State (SP), Brazil / Sakai, Rafael de Oliveira; Cartacho, Diego Lourenço; Arasaki, Emilia; Alfredini, Paolo; Rosso, Maurizio; Pezzoli, Alessandro; Cabral De Souza Junior, Wilson; Cabral De Souza, Wilson --- 4. Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought in the Chaco, Paraguay / Pezzoli, Alessandro; Ponte, Enrico --- 5. Characterization of Flood Hazard at a Municipal Level. A Case Study in Tillabéri Region, Niger / Bacci, Maurizio --- 6. Sensitivity of Dar Es Salaam Coastal Aquifer to Climate Change with Regard to Seawater Intrusion and Groundwater Availability / Sappa, Giuseppe; Luciani, Giulia --- 7. Impact of the Construction of an Offshore Highway on the Sea-Spray Dynamics in La Reunion Island / Piazzola, Jacques; Tedeschi, Gilles; Missamou, Tathy --- 8. Early Warning Systems & Geomatics: Value-added Information in the Absence of High Resolution Data / Cristofori, Elena; Albanese, Adriana; Boccardo, Piero --- 9. Planning the Adaptation of Coastal Cities to Climate Change: a Review of 14 Pilot Projects / Ponte, Enrico --- 10. National and Local Contingency Planning: a Comparative Analysis of Plans in Africa and Latin America / Ponte, Enrico --- 11. Measures of Adaptation and Community-based Water Management in Mékhé, Senegal / Biconne, Rita --- 12. Flood Risk Preliminary Mapping in Niamey, Niger / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Braccio, Sarah --- 13. Flood Risk Assessment at Municipal Level in the Tillabéri Region, Niger / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Braccio, Sarah --- 14. Drought Risk in the Tillabery Region, Niger / Tarchiani, Vieri; Bacci, Maurizio --- 15. Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Planning: a Proposed Approach for Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania / Macchi, Silvia; Ricci, Liana --- 16. Climate Change Adaptation in Dar es Salaam: Local Government Opinions and Proposed Interventions / Shemdoe, Riziki S.; Rugai, Dionis; Fantini, Laura --- 17. Household Level Vulnerability to Climate Change in Nepal – A Comparison of a Semi-urban and a Rural Village Development Committee / Giri, Madhav --- 18. Weather Observation Network and Climate Change Monitoring in Catalonia, Spain / Prohom, Marc; Puig, Oriol --- 19. Assessing flood risk in Zurich, Switzerland: the KR-RRA approach / Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Olschewski, Roland; Marcomini, Antonio --- 20. Flood Risk Assessment and Quantification in the Piedmont Region, Italy / Franzi, Luca; Bianco, Gennaro; Bruno, Alessandro; Foglino, Sara --- 21. Conclusion / Tiepolo, Maurizio; Ponte, Enrico
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIII, 380 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9783110480795
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    Keywords: climate change ; government policy ; citizen participation ; social aspects ; Alberta ; Canada
    Description / Table of Contents: Introduction: Advancing Public Deliberation on Climate Change and Other Wicked Problems / Lorelei L. Hanson and David Kahane --- 1. Profiles of Four Citizen Deliberations / Lorelei L. Hanson --- 2. The Theory and Practice of Deliberative Democracy / David Kahane and Gwendolyn Blue --- 3. The Economic and Political Context of Climate Policy in Alberta / Geoff Salomons and John R. Parkins --- 4. Beyond the Usual Suspects: Representation in Deliberative Exercises / Shelley Boulianne --- 5. From Facts to Frames: Dominant and Alternative Meanings of Climate Change / Gwendolyn Blue --- 6. Collaborating on Deliberative Democracy / David Kahane and Lorelei L. Hanson --- 7. On the Ground: Practitioners Reflect on ABCD’s Citizen Deliberations / Mary Pat MacKinnon, Jacquie Dale, and Susanna Haas Lyons --- 8. Climate Change, Social Change, and Systems Change / David Kahane --- Conclusion: The Potential of Deliberation to Tap the Power of Citizens to Address Climate Change and Other Issues of Sustainability / Tom Prugh and Matt Leighninger
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIV, 248 Seiten) , Illustrationen
    ISBN: 9781771992169
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    Unknown
    Johannesburg : Wits University Press
    Keywords: climate change ; climate crisis ; capitalism ; South Africa
    Description / Table of Contents: 1 The Climate Crisis and Systemic Alternatives Vishwas Satgar --- PART ONE :THE CLIMATE CRISIS AS CAPITALIST CRISIS --- 2 The Limits of Capitalist Solutions to the Climate Crisis Dorothy Grace Guerrero --- 3 The Anthropocene and Imperial Ecocide: Prospects for Just Transitions Vishwas Satgar --- PART TWO: DEMOCRATIC ECO-SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVES IN THE WORLD --- 4 The Employment Crisis, Just Transition and the Universal Basic Income Grant Hein Marais --- 5 The Rights of Mother Earth Pablo Sólon --- 6 Buen Vivir: An Alternative Perspective from the Peoples of the Global South Alberto Acosta and Mateo Martínez Abarca --- 7 Challenging the Growth Paradigm: Marx, Buddha and the Pursuit of ‘Happiness’ Devan Pillay --- 8 Ubuntu and the Struggle for an African Eco-socialist Alternative Christelle Terreblanche --- 9 The Climate Crisis and the Struggle for African Food Sovereignty Nnimmo Bassey --- PART THREE: DEMOCRATIC ECO-SOCIALIST ALTERNATIVES IN SOUTH AFRICA --- 10 The Climate Crisis and a ‘Just Transition’ in South Africa: An Eco-Feminist-Socialist Perspective Jacklyn Cock --- 11 Energy, Labour, and Democracy in South Africa Michelle Williams --- 12 Capital, Climate and the Politics of Nuclear Procurement in South Africa David Fig --- 13 Climate Jobs at Two Minutes to Midnight Brian Ashley --- 14 Deepening the Just Transition Through Food Sovereignty and the Solidarity Economy Andrew Bennie and Athish Satgoor --- 15 Eco-Capitalist Crises in the ‘Blue Economy’: Operation Phakisa’s Small, Slow Failures Desné Masie and Patrick Bond --- CONCLUSION: Vishwas Satgar
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 357 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781776142088
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 8
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: alternative energy ; sustainable forest management ; carbon finance ; carbon ; forests ; climate change ; biodiversity conservation ; emissions ; oceans ; silver ; colors ; carbon sinks ; carbon offsets ; climate ; ecosystem ; emissions from deforestation ; coral reefs ; carbon stores ; forest ; sustainable forest
    Description / Table of Contents: Global warming and changes in climate will have severe and lasting impacts on national efforts to alleviate poverty and promote sustainable development. Some of the world s poorest countries and communities are the most vulnerable and are already suffering the consequences. Yet often these countries are rich in natural capital, ecosystems, and biodiversity that can contribute to solutions as they can to climate change. Biodiversity is the foundation and mainstay of agriculture, forests, and fisheries. Biological resources provide the raw materials for livelihoods, agriculture, medicines, trade, tourism, and industry. Forests, grasslands, freshwater, and marine and other natural ecosystems provide a range of services, often not recognized in national economic accounts but vital to human welfare: regulating water flows and water quality, flood control, pollination, decontamination, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and nutrient and hydrological cycling. Current efforts to address climate change focus mainly on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly through cleaner energy strategies, and on attempting to reduce vulnerability of the communities at risk by improving infrastructure to meet new energy and water needs. This book book sets out a compelling argument for including ecosystem-based approaches to mitigation and adaptation as a third essential pillar in national strategies to address climate change. Such ecosystem-based strategies can offer cost-effective, proven and sustainable solutions contributing to, and complementing, other national and regional adaptation strategies.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 114 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821381274
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 9
    Keywords: archaeology ; northern Australia ; environment ; climate change
    Description / Table of Contents: The research presented here is primarily concerned with human-environment interactions on the tropical coast of northern Australia during the late Holocene. Based on the suggestion that significant change can occur within short time-frames as a direct result of interactive processes, the archaeological evidence from the Point Blane Peninsula, Blue Mud Bay, is used to address the issue of how much change and variability occurred in hunter-gatherer economic and social structures during the late Holocene in coastal northeastern Arnhem Land. The suggestion proposed here is that processes of environmental and climatic change resulted in changes in resource distribution and abundance, which in turn affected patterns of settlement and resource exploitation strategies, levels of mobility and, potentially, the size of foraging groups on the coast. The question of human behavioural variability over the last 3000 years in Blue Mud Bay has been addressed by examining issues of scale and resolution in archaeological interpretation, specifically the differential chronological and spatial patterning of shell midden and mound sites on the peninsula in conjunction with variability in molluscan resource exploitation. To this end, the biological and ecological characteristics of the dominant molluscan species is considered in detail, in combination with assessing the potential for human impact through predation. Investigating pre-contact coastal foraging behaviour via the archaeological record provides an opportunity for change to recognised in a number of ways. For example, a differential focus on resources, variations in group size and levels of mobility can all be identified. It has also been shown that human-environment interactions are non-linear or progressive, and that human behaviour during the late Holocene was both flexible and dynamic.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XIX, 216 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781925021103
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 10
    Keywords: Australia ; environment ; climate change ; biogeography ; palaeoecology ; human ecology
    Description / Table of Contents: Like a star chart this volume orientates the reader to the key issues and debates in Pacific and Australasian biogeography, palaeoecology and human ecology. A feature of this collection is the diversity of approaches ranging from interpretation of the biogeographic significance of plant and animal distributional patterns, pollen analysis from peats and lake sediments to discern Quaternary climate change, explanation of the patterns of faunal extinction events, the interplay of fire on landscape evolution, and models of the environmental consequences of human settlement patterns. The diversity of approaches, geographic scope and academic rigor are a fitting tribute to the enormous contributions of Geoff Hope. As made apparent in this volume, Hope pioneered multidisciplinary understanding of the history and impacts of human cultures in the Australia- Pacific region, arguably the globe’s premier model systems for understanding the consequences of human colonization on ecological systems. The distinguished scholars who have contributed to this volume also demonstrate Hope’s enduring contribution as an inspirational research leader, collaborator and mentor. Terra Australis leave no doubt that history matters, not only for land management, but more importantly, in alerting settler and indigenous societies alike to their past ecological impacts and future environmental trajectories.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (512 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781921666810
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 11
    Unknown
    Durham NC : Duke University Press
    Keywords: climate change ; petro industry ; oil
    Description / Table of Contents: "In Energy without Conscience" David McDermott Hughes investigates why climate change has yet to be seen as a moral issue. He examines the forces that render the use of fossil fuels ordinary and therefore exempt from ethical evaluation. Hughes centers his analysis on Trinidad and Tobago, which is the world's oldest petro-state, having drilled the first continuously producing oil well in 1866. Marrying historical research with interviews with Trinidadian petroleum scientists, policymakers, technicians, and managers, he draws parallels between Trinidad's eighteenth- and nineteenth-century slave labor energy economy and its contemporary oil industry. Hughes shows how both forms of energy rely upon a complicity that absolves producers and consumers from acknowledging the immoral nature of each. He passionately argues that like slavery, producing oil is a moral choice and that oil is at its most dangerous when it is accepted as an ordinary part of everyday life.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 191 ppages)
    ISBN: 9780822373360
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 12
    Keywords: climate change ; agriculture
    Description / Table of Contents: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project: Phase I Activities by a Global Community of Science (Cynthia Rosenzweig, James W Jones, Jerry L Hatfield, John M Antle, Alexander C Ruane, and Carolyn Z Mutter) --- AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (John M Antle, Roberto O Valdivia, Kenneth J Boote, Sander Janssen, James W Jones, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, and Peter J Thorburn) --- AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment (Alexander C Ruane, Jonathan M Winter, Sonali P McDermid, and Nicholas I Hudson) --- Cropping Systems Modeling in AgMIP: A New Protocol-Driven Approach for Regional Integrated Assessments (Peter J Thorburn, Kenneth J Boote, John N G Hargreaves, Perry L Poulton, and James W Jones) --- Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation (Roberto O Valdivia, John M Antle, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Joost Vervoort, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ibrahima Hathie, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Richard Mulwa, Charles Nhemachena, Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Herath Rasnayaka, and Harbir Singh) --- Data Interoperability Tools for Regional Integrated Assessments (Cheryl H Porter, Chris Villalobos, Dean Holzworth, Roger Nelson, Jefffrey W White, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, Meng Zhang, Sander Janssen, Rob Knapen, James W Jones, Kenneth J Boote, John Hargreaves, and John M Antle) --- The AgMIP GRIDded Crop Modeling Initiative (AgGRID) and the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) (Joshua Elliott and Christoph Müller) --- The AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP): Methods and Protocols (Sonali P McDermid, Alexander C Ruane, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Nicholas I Hudson, Monica D Morales, Prabodha Agalawatte, Shakeel Ahmad, L R Ahuja, Istiqlal Amien, Saseendran S Anapalli, Jakarat Anothai, Senthold Asseng, Jody Biggs, Federico Bert, Patrick Bertuzzi, Virender S Bhatia, Marco Bindi, Ian Broad, Davide Cammarano, Ramiro Carretero, Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha, Uran Chung, Stephanie Debats, Paola Deligios, Giacomo De Sanctis, Thanda Dhliwayo, Benjamin Dumont, Lyndon Estes, Frank Ewert, Roberto Ferrise, Thomas Gaiser, Guillermo Garcia, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Vellingiri Geethalakshmi, Edward Gerardeaux, Richard Goldberg, Brian Grant, Edgardo Guevara, Jonathan Hickman, Holger Hoffmann, Huanping Huang, Jamshad Hussain, Flavio Barbosa Justino, Asha S Karunaratne, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Patrice K Kouakou, Soora Naresh Kumar, Arunachalam Lakshmanan, Mark Lieffering, Xiaomao Lin, Qunying Luo, Graciela Magrin, Marco Mancini, Fabio Ricardo Marin, Anna Dalla Marta, Yuji Masutomi, Theodoros Mavromatis, Greg McLean, Santiago Meira, Monoranjan Mohanty, Marco Moriondo, Wajid Nasim, Lamyaa Negm, Francesca Orlando, Simone Orlandini, Isik Ozturk, Helena Maria Soares Pinto, Guillermo Podesta, Zhiming Qi, Johanna Ramarohetra, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Helene Raynal, Gabriel Rodriguez, Reimund Rötter, Vaishali Sharda, Lu Shuo, Ward Smith, Val Snow, Afshin Soltani, K Srinivas, Benjamin Sultan, Dillip Kumar Swain, Fulu Tao, Kindie Tesfaye, Maria I Travasso, Giacomo Trombi, Alex Topaj, Eline Vanuytrecht, Federico E Viscarra, Syed Aftab Wajid, Enli Wang, Hong Wang, Jing Wang, Erandika Wijekoon, Lee Byun-Woo, Yang Xiaoguang, Ban Ho Young, Jin I Yun, Zhigan Zhao, and Lareef Zubair) --- Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment (Daniel Wallach, Linda O Mearns, Michael Rivington, John M Antle, and Alexander C Ruane) --- Uncertainties in Scaling-Up Crop Models for Large-Area Climate Change Impact Assessments (Frank Ewert, Lenny G J van Bussel, Gang Zhao, Holger Hoffmann, Thomas Gaiser, Xenia Specka, Claas Nendel, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Carmen Sosa, Elisabet Lewan, Jagadeesh Yeluripati, Matthias Kuhnert, Fulu Tao, Reimund Rötter, Julie Constantin, Helene Raynal, Daniel Wallach, Edmar Teixeira, Balasz Grosz, Michaela Bach, Luca Doro, Pier Paolo Roggero, Zhigan Zhao, Enli Wang, Ralf Kiese, Edwin Haas, Henrik Eckersten, Giacomo Trombi, Marco Bindi, Christian Klein, Christian Biernath, Florian Heinlein, Eckart Priesack, Davide Cammarano, Senthold Asseng, Joshua Elliott, Michael Glotter, Bruno Basso, Guillermo A Baigorria, Consuelo C Romero, and Marco Moriondo) --- Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Change Effects (David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J Challinor, Sjakk J G Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L A Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E E Jongschaap, James W Jones, Armen R Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J O'Leary, Jorgen E Olesen, Tom M Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W White, Jimmy R Williams, and Joost Wolf) --- Crop Diseases and Climate Change in the AgMIP Framework (Ariena H C van Bruggen, James W Jones, Jose Mauricio C Fernandes, Karen Garrett, and Kenneth J Boote) --- Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa (Job Kihara, Dilys S MacCarthy, Andre Bationo, Saidou Koala, Jonathan Hickman, Jawoo Koo, Charles Vanya, Samuel Adiku, Yacob Beletse, Patricia Masikate, Karuturi P C Rao, Carolyn Z Mutter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, and James W Jones) --- Climate Change Impacts on West African Agriculture: An Integrated Regional Assessment (CIWARA) (Samuel G K Adiku, Dilys S MacCarthy, Ibrahima Hathie, Madina Diancoumba, Bright S Freduah, Joseph Amikuzuno, P C Sibiry Traore, Seydou Traore, Eric Koomson, Alhassane Agali, Jon I Lizaso, Dougbedji Fatondji, Myriam Adams, Lodoun Tigana, Daouda Z Diarra, Ousmane N'diaye, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agricultural Systems in East Africa (Karuturi P C Rao, Gummadi Sridhar, Richard M Mulwa, Mary N Kilavi, Anthony Esilaba, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Projected Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on the Production of Maize in Southern Africa: An Integrated Assessment Case Study of the Bethlehem District, Central Free State, South Africa (Yacob G Beletse, Wiltrud Durand, Charles Nhemachena, Olivier Crespo, Weldemichael A Tesfuhuney, Matthew R Jones, Mogos Y Teweldemedhin, Sunshine M Gamedze, Pontsho M Bonolo, Syanda Jonas, SueWalker, Patrick Gwimbi, Thembeka N Mpuisang, Davide Cammarano, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Crop-Livestock Intensification in the Face of Climate Change: Exploring Opportunities to Reduce Risk and Increase Resilience in Southern Africa by Using an Integrated Multi-modeling Approach (Patricia Masikati, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Katrien Descheemaeker, Olivier Crespo, Sue Walker, Christopher J Lennard, Lieven Claessens, Arthur C Gama, Sebastiao Famba, Andre F van Rooyen, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia (Sonali P McDermid, Guntuku Dileepkumar, K M Dakshina Murthy, S Nedumaran, Piara Singh, Chukka Srinivasa, B Gangwar, N Subash, Ashfaq Ahmad, Lareef Zubair, and S P Nissanka) --- Impact of Climate Change on the Rice–Wheat Cropping System of Pakistan (Ashfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ghulam Rasul, Syed Aftab Wajid, Tasneem Khaliq, Fahd Rasul, Umer Saeed, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Jamshad Hussain, Irfan Ahmad Baig, Syed Asif Ali Naqvi, Syed Ahsan Ali Bokhari, Shakeel Ahmad, Wajid Naseem, Gerrit Hoogenboom, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Climate Change Assessment through Linking Crop Simulation with Economic Modeling — Results from the Indo-Gangetic Basin (Nataraja Subash, Babooji Gangwar, Harbir Singh, Guillermo Baigorria, Alok Kumar Sikka, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Maize Farms and Farm Household Incomes in South India: A Case Study from Tamil Nadu (Paramasivam Ponnusamy, Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Raji Reddy Danda, Lakshmanan Arunachalam, Dakshina Murthy, Sunandini Prema, Sreenivas Gade, Sonali P McDermid, and Roberto O Valdivia) --- Climate Change Impacts on Rice Farming Systems in Northwestern Sri Lanka (Lareef Zubair, Sarath P Nissanka, W M W Weerakoon, Dumindu I Herath, Asha S Karunaratne, A S M Prabodha, M B Agalawatte, Rasnayaka M Herath, S Zeenas Yahiya, B V R Punyawardene, Janan Vishwanathan, Punya Delpitiya, A Erandika N Wijekoon, Janaka Gunaratna, Sewwandhi S K Chandrasekara, P Wickramagamage, K D N Weerasinghe, Champa M Navaratne, Ruchika S Perera, Asela I Gunesekara, G M Pradeep Kumara, Daniel Wallach, Roberto O Valdivia, and Sonali P McDermid) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The Brazil Experience (Eduardo D Assad, Fábio R Marin, Roberto O Valdivia, and Cynthia Rosenzweig) --- AgMIP Regional Activities in a Global Framework: The China Experience (Fulu Tao and Erda Lin) --- AgMIP Training in Multiple Crop Models and Tools (Kenneth J Boote, Cheryl H Porter, John Hargreaves, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Peter Thorburn, and Carolyn Mutter) --- Major Findings and Future Activities (Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel)
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXVII, 525 pages (part 1); XXIII, 580 pages (part 2))
    ISBN: 9781783265633
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 13
    Unknown
    Washington, D. C. : The World Bank
    Keywords: global challenge ; commodities, pricing, and trade ; global trade ; climate change ; global emission goals ; trade policies ; global trade objectives ; climate regimes ; policy objective ; environment and pollution prevention
    Description / Table of Contents: Climate change remains a global challenge requiring international collaborative action. Another area where countries have successfully committed to a long-term multilateral resolution is the liberalization of international trade. Integration into the world economy has proven a powerful means for countries to promote economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. The broad objectives of the betterment of current and future human welfare are shared by both global trade and climate regimes. Yet both climate and trade agendas have evolved largely independently through the years, despite their mutually supporting objectives. Since global emission goals and global trade objectives are shared policy objectives of most countries, and nearly all of the World Bank's clients, it makes sense to consider the two sets of objectives together.This book is one of the first comprehensive attempts to look at the synergies between climate change and trade objectives from economic, legal, and institutional perspectives. It addresses an important policy question - how changes in trade policies and international cooperation on trade policies can help address global environmental spillovers, especially GHG emissions, and what the (potential) effects of (national) environmental policies that are aimed at global environmental problems might be for trade and investment. It explores opportunities for aligning development and energy policies in such a way that they could stimulate production, trade, and investment in cleaner technology options.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 144 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9780821372265
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 14
    Unknown
    New York, Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London : Springer
    Keywords: climate change ; mitigation ; fossil energy ; alternative energy ; renewable energy ; solar energy ; biofuel ; atmospheric carbon ; energy conservation ; advanced combustion ; emission ; fuel cells ; precipitation ; sustainability
    Description / Table of Contents: There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Climate Change and Societal Issues, Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Conservation, Alternative Energies, Advanced Combustion, Advanced Technologies, and Education and Outreach.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXVII, 2130 Seiten)
    ISBN: 9781441979919
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 15
    Unknown
    Basel, Beijing, Wuhan : MDPI
    Keywords: climate ; time of wetness ; climate change ; aerosols ; particle induced corrosion ; chloride-rich atmospheres ; de-icing salts ; impact of atmospheric corrosion on the environment (runoff) ; prediction ; modelling ; degradation and conservation of cultural heritage ; weathering steels ; copper (alloys) ; surface coatings ; worldwide atmospheric corrosion research ; new analytical techniques
    Description / Table of Contents: Nishimura, T. Rust Formation Mechanism on Low Alloy Steels after Exposure Test in High Cl− and High SOx Environmen. Materials 2017, 10(2), 199; doi:10.3390/ma10020199. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/2/199 --- Chang, T.; Odnevall Wallinder, I.; de la Fuente, D.; Chico, B.; Morcillo, M.; Welter, J.; Leygraf, C. Analysis of Historic Copper Patinas. Influence of Inclusions on Patina Uniformity. Materials 2017, 10(3), 298; doi:10.3390/ma10030298. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/3/298 --- Na, O.; Cai, X.; Xi, Y. Corrosion Prediction with Parallel Finite Element Modeling for Coupled Hygro-Chemo Transport into Concrete under Chloride-Rich Environment. Materials 2017, 10(4), 350; doi:10.3390/ma10040350. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/350 --- Kreislova, K.; Knotkova, D. The Results of 45 Years of Atmospheric Corrosion Study in the Czech Republic. Materials 2017, 10(4), 394; doi:10.3390/ma10040394. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/394 --- Alcántara, J.; Fuente, D.; Chico, B.; Simancas, J.; Díaz, I.; Morcillo, M. Marine Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel: A Review. Materials 2017, 10(4), 406; doi:10.3390/ma10040406. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/406 --- Hosseinpour, S.; Johnson, M. Vibrational Spectroscopy in Studies of Atmospheric Corrosion. Materials 2017, 10(4), 413; doi:10.3390/ma10040413. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/413 --- Panchenko, Y.; Marshakov, A. Prediction of First-Year Corrosion Losses of Carbon Steel and Zinc in Continental Regions. Materials 2017, 10(4), 422; doi:10.3390/ma10040422. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/4/422 --- Chico, B.; de la Fuente, D.; Díaz, I.; Simancas, J.; Morcillo, M. Annual Atmospheric Corrosion of Carbon Steel Worldwide. An Integration of ISOCORRAG, ICP/UNECE and MICAT Databases. Materials 2017, 10(6), 601; doi:10.3390/ma10060601. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/6/601 --- Bouchar, M.; Dillmann, P.; Neff, D. New Insights in the Long-Term Atmospheric Corrosion Mechanisms of Low Alloy Steel Reinforcements of Cultural Heritage Buildings. Materials 2017, 10(6), 670; doi:10.3390/ma10060670. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/6/670 --- Tidblad, J.; Kreislová, K.; Faller, M.; de la Fuente, D.; Yates, T.; Verney-Carron, A.; Grøntoft, T.; Gordon, A.; Hans, U. ICP Materials Trends in Corrosion, Soiling and Air Pollution (1987–2014). Materials 2017, 10(8), 969; doi:10.3390/ma10080969. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/8/969 --- Cole, I. Recent Progress and Required Developments in Atmospheric Corrosion of Galvanised Steel and Zinc. Materials 2017, 10(11), 1288; doi:10.3390/ma10111288. http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/10/11/1288
    Pages: Online-Ressource (X, 262 Seiten)
    Edition: Printed Edition of the Special Issue Published in Materials
    ISBN: 9783038426424
    Language: English
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 16
    Keywords: Klimawandel ; climate change ; changement climatique
    Description / Table of Contents: Les scientifiques et les ingénieurs ont un rôle majeur à jouer pour l’avenir de l’humanité : ce sont eux qui ont pu alerter le monde sur le danger que court le climat de la planète et sur ses conséquences ; ce sont eux qui en ont identifié une cause très probable et sur laquelle nous pouvons réagir. Notre action dépend de nombreux facteurs : prise de conscience universelle, volontés politiques, solidarité entre les Etats et les peuples, moyens financiers... mais aussi in fine moyens scientifiques et techniques. Cependant, les ingénieurs ne sont pas des magiciens. Remplacer l’usage des ressources énergétiques traditionnelles, stockées depuis des millions d’années, par des ressources non carbonées, autant que possible renouvelables (nucléaire, hydraulique, géothermie, biomasse, vent, soleil…) demande du temps. L’objet de ce livre est double : montrer d’une part l’attention que les ingénieurs et scientifiques portent à cette menace fondamentale et leur compréhension du problème, d’autre part leur souhait de participer davantage aux débats et aux décisions, avec l’espoir d’aboutir à des orientations et des réalisations plus efficaces en faveur de l’objectif recherché. Les auteurs estiment que par leur indépendance, leur objectivité, leurs compétences et leur pragmatisme, les ingénieurs devraient contribuer au rapprochement entre rêve et réalité.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (104 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    ISBN: 9782759822508
    Language: French
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 17
    Keywords: Switzerland ; environmental planning ; environmental policy ; environmental protocols ; climate change ; public action ; public policy standards ; allocation of public resources
    Description / Table of Contents: Depuis le début des années 2000, l’insuffisance des efforts politiques pour réduire drastiquement les émissions globales de gaz à effet de serre a conduit au renforcement d’un discours sur la nécessité de s’adapter au changement climatique. Particulièrement dans les régions vulnérables aux effets du changement climatique, une transformation des politiques de gestion de l’environnement apparaît comme nécessaire afin de réduire les risques et d’exploiter les nouvelles opportunités découlant du changement climatique et de ses im-pacts. Or, si les analystes constatent un développement des activités d’adaptation au changement climatique, peu de travaux interrogent l’efficacité réelle des mesures actuelles et leurs éventuelles limites. Cet ouvrage tente de combler cette lacune en déconstruisant la notion d’adaptation au changement climatique et en interrogeant sa signification réelle pour la conduite des politiques à incidence environnementale. Il exa-mine de manière théorique en quoi l’adaptation au changement climatique nécessiterait des réformes de l’action publique. Puis, il examine l’état des pratiques actuelles au travers d’études de cas dans le secteur agricole en Inde (Rajasthan et Maharashtra) et dans le secteur du tourisme hivernal en Suisse (Alpes vaudoises et vallée de Joux). Sur la base de cette incursion théorique et empirique dans l’univers de ces nouvelles politiques de gestion de l’environnement, l’auteur discute des limitations observées et suggère des voies d’amélioration pour le futur.
    Pages: Online-Ressource (384 Seiten) , Illustrationen, Diagramme, Karten
    ISBN: 9782889300617
    Language: French
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 21
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 22
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 23
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 24
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 25
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 527-545 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: breast-feeding ; chlorinated compounds ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Exposure to persistent organochlorines in breast milk was estimated probabilistically for Canadian infants. Noncancer health effects were evaluated by comparing the predicted exposure distributions to published guidance values. For chemicals identified as potential human carcinogens, cancer risks were evaluated using standard methodology typically applied in Canada, as well as an alternative method developed under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act. Potential health risks associated with exposure to persistent organochlorines were quantitatively and qualitatively weighed against the benefits of breast-feeding. Current levels of the majority of contaminants identified in Canadian breast milk do not pose unacceptable risks to infants. Benefits of breast-feeding are well documented and qualitatively appear to outweigh potential health concerns associated with organochlorine exposure. Furthermore, the risks of mortality from not breast-feeding estimated by Rogan and colleagues exceed the theoretical cancer risks estimated for infant exposure to potential carcinogens in Canadian breast milk. Although levels of persistent compounds have been declining in Canadian breast milk, potentially significant risks were estimated for exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls, dibenzo-p-dioxins, and dibenzofurans. Follow-up work is suggested that would involve the use of a physiologically based toxicokinetic model with probabilistic inputs to predict dioxin exposure to the infant. A more detailed risk analysis could be carried out by coupling the exposure estimates with a dose–response analysis that accounts for uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 26
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 689-701 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk ; risk perception ; risk assessment ; risk communication ; risk management
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept “risk” and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach—one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase the legitimacy and public acceptance of the resulting decisions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 27
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 711-726 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: variability ; exposure ; susceptibility ; risk assessment ; pharmacokinetics ; pharmacodynamics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters and parameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are: •Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per body weight) •Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate •General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilution via Distribution Volume (e.g., initial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake) •Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance) •Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration •Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant) •Functional Reserve Capacity–Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal Function Comparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process–differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimating effective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants that are thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 28
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 763-807 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; probabilistic risk assessment ; performance assessment ; policy analysis ; history of technology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 29
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk perception ; CRESP ; trust ; DOE Savannah River site ; risk assessment ; stakeholder ; economic dependence
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to human health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted with the purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 30
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; uncertainty ; formaldehyde ; decision analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approach that draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenic risks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 31
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1157-1171 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; transportation risk ; diesel exhaust ; fugitive dust ; vehicle emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate the risks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas for all diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 32
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: municipal waste incineration ; risk assessment ; Monte-Carlo simulation ; time activity patterns
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracer pollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1, 1, 1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2·10−5 μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5·10−5 and 6.5·10−5 μg/m3), yielding a 2.6·10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2·10−10–5.4·10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8·10−4 μg/m3 (0.9.10−4 – 3.6·10−4 μg/m3) and 8.6·10−8 (4.3·10−8–17.3·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3·10−6 μg/m3 (4.0·10−6–17.6·10−6) and 1.5·10−8 (7.2·10−9–3.1·10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 33
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: MeHg ; pharmacokinetics ; PBPK model ; variability ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract An analysis of the uncertainty in guidelines for the ingestion of methylmercury (MeHg) due to human pharmacokinetic variability was conducted using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that describes MeHg kinetics in the pregnant human and fetus. Two alternative derivations of an ingestion guideline for MeHg were considered: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 μg/kg/day derived from studies of an Iraqi grain poisoning episode, and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry chronic oral minimal risk level (MRL) of 0.5 μg/kg/day based on studies of a fish-eating population in the Seychelles Islands. Calculation of an ingestion guideline for MeHg from either of these epidemiological studies requires calculation of a dose conversion factor (DCF) relating a hair mercury concentration to a chronic MeHg ingestion rate. To evaluate the uncertainty in this DCF across the population of U.S. women of child-bearing age, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which distributions for each of the parameters in the PBPK model were randomly sampled 1000 times. The 1st and 5th percentiles of the resulting distribution of DCFs were a factor of 1.8 and 1.5 below the median, respectively. This estimate of variability is consistent with, but somewhat less than, previous analyses performed with empirical, one-compartment pharmacokinetic models. The use of a consistent factor in both guidelines of 1.5 for pharmacokinetic variability in the DCF, and keeping all other aspects of the derivations unchanged, would result in an RfD of 0.2 μg/kg/day and an MRL of 0.3 μg/kg/day.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 34
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 577-584 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; exposure point concentration ; bootstrapping ; gamma distribution ; lognormal
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends the use of the one-sided 95% upper confidence limit of the arithmetic mean based on either a normal or lognormal distribution for the contaminant (or exposure point) concentration term in the Superfund risk assessment process. When the data are not normal or lognormal this recommended approach may overestimate the exposure point concentration (EPC) and may lead to unecessary cleanup at a hazardous waste site. The EPA concentration term only seems to perform like alternative EPC methods when the data are well fit by a lognormal distribution. Several alternative methods for calculating the EPC are investigated and compared using soil data collected from three hazardous waste sites in Montana, Utah, and Colorado. For data sets that are well fit by a lognormal distribution, values for the Chebychev inequality or the EPA concentration term may be appropriate EPCs. For data sets where the soil concentration data are well fit by gamma distributions, Wong's method may be used for calculating EPCs. The studentized bootstrap-t and Hall's bootstrap-t transformation are recommended for EPC calculation when all distribution fits are poor. If a data set is well fit by a distribution, parametric bootstrap may provide a suitable EPC.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 35
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: regulation ; radioactive waste ; performance assessment ; risk assessment ; regulatory assessment ; bias evaluation ; international collaboration ; underground disposal ; quantitative risk analysis ; public debate ; decision process
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators' review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 36
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 18 (1998), S. 679-688 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Air quality ; benchmarking ; best available control technology ; contaminant exposure ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 37
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 23-32 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Software failures ; software hazard analysis ; safety-critical systems ; risk assessment ; context
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 38
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Benchmark ; mercury ; risk assessment ; epidemiology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mg/kg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mg/kg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mg/kg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mg/kg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mg/kg.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 39
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Remediation ; stakeholders ; deliberation ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision-making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the “analysis”) in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 40
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 327-334 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Biological introductions ; binucleate Rhizoctonia ; biocontrol ; risk assessment ; seedlings ; susceptibility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 41
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: dose-response ; models ; food-borne ; pathogens ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose-response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal, log-logistic, exponential, β-Poisson and Weibull-Gamma. These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella flexneri, Shigella dysenteriae,Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella typhosa, using the method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 42
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: ethylene oxide ; risk assessment ; epidemiology ; cancer guidelines
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of the animal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenarios and a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 43
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 1223-1234 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: risk assessment ; standard-setting ; carcinogens ; OSHA ; ACGIH
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 44
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Extreme events ; risk assessment ; risk management ; extreme value theory ; judgmental distributions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include: guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 45
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 46
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Market response ; risk assessment ; airplane accidents ; airline industry
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 47
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Uncertainty ; variability ; risk assessment ; risk management ; ozone ; clean air act ; social policy ; analysis of benefits and costs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 48
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 135-152 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Probability ; uncertainty ; data ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Risk assessors attempting to use probabilistic approaches to describe uncertainty often find themselves in a data-sparse situation: available data are only partially relevant to the parameter of interest, so one needs to adjust empirical distributions, use explicit judgmental distributions, or collect new data. In determining whether or not to collect additional data, whether by measurement or by elicitation of experts, it is useful to consider the expected value of the additional information. The expected value of information depends on the prior distribution used to represent current information; if the prior distribution is too narrow, in many risk-analytic cases the calculated expected value of information will be biased downward. The well-documented tendency toward overconfidence, including the neglect of potential surprise, suggests this bias may be substantial. We examine the expected value of information, including the role of surprise, test for bias in estimating the expected value of information, and suggest procedures to guard against overconfidence and underestimation of the expected value of information when developing prior distributions and when combining distributions obtained from multiple experts. The methods are illustrated with applications to potential carcinogens in food, commercial energy demand, and global climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 49
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 50
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 57-77 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic transport ; risk assessment ; concentration CDF ; exceedance probabilities
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents the principles underlying a recently developed numerical technique for modeling transport in heterogeneous porous media. The method is then applied to derive the concentration mean and variance, the concentration CDF, exceedance probabilities and exposure time CDF, which are required by various regulatory agencies for risk and performance assessment calculations. The dependence of the various statistics on elapsed travel time, location in space, the dimension of the detection volume, natural variability and pore-scale dispersion is investigated and discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 51
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Cellular and molecular life sciences 49 (1993), S. 190-200 
    ISSN: 1420-9071
    Keywords: Philosophy of technology ; resease experiments ; gene technology ; technology assessment ; risk assessment ; transgenic organisms ; ethics in genetic engineering ; environmental ethics ; bioethics ; field tests
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Notes: Abstract Field tests with genetically modified organisms go beyond the boundaries of the politically and morally neutralized space that normally surrounds scientific experiments. They enter public areas. As a social process of shaping nature they are political in a fundamental sense. Consequences of this observation concern the legitimacy of decisions and the legitimacy of deciding procedures. The political rights of citizens and their human rights can only be respected if these procedures are democratic. Without a more serious exploration of the specific circumstances of release tests — for example, the precise ecological context, the consequences for the future development of the affected ecosystem, the social consequences, and the possible institutional ways of establishing gene technology in agriculture — we do not really know what we are doing when we release transgenic organisms. Moral judgements today can therefore only be prima facie, not free from shortcomings. As responsible judges we must confess that we are still morally blind.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 52
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 22 (2000), S. 117-138 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: fatalities ; flood ; bushfire ; heatwave ; eastern Australia ; ENSO ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers. The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 53
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 347-360 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: volcanic hazard ; risk assessment ; GIS ; physical simulation models ; information systems ; emergency planning
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The incorporation of a set ofcomputer-based tools, such as Geographical InformationSystems and physical models, to the field of riskassessment, introduces a new perspective in thevolcanic risk maps production, increasing the analysisand modelling capabilities available through theapplication of conventional methodologies. Amethodology adapted to the requirements andcharacteristics of the new operating environment hasbeen applied at Tenerife island (Canary Islands,Spain) to carry out a study devoted to analyse thesuitability of these tools for near real-timemanagement of volcanic crises. With this in mind, aseries of potential eruption scenarios have beenselected to identify and characterise which elementsat risk would prove most vulnerable against a specificvolcanic phenomenon, depending on the socio-economiccharacteristics of the area affected and the resultingdistribution of the volcanic products. This kind ofinformation is fundamental to update, adapt or produceeffective risk management and emergency plans orprotocols, where the measures to mitigate or fightagainst a specific volcanic disaster have to be taken,incorporating the existing knowledge of the phenomenonbehaviour and taking into account their potentialeffects on the area of interest.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 54
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 279-294 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; groundwater contamination ; vulnerability ; GIS ; hazard ; economic ; value
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The groundwater contamination risk map of a samplealluvial area was produced by using the IlwisGeographical Information System (GIS) to construct andto overlay thematic maps. The risk map has beenderived from the vulnerability map, the hazard map,where the potential contaminating sources wereidentified, and the socio-economic value of thegroundwater resource, represented by the wells. Thegroundwater quality map allowed thereliability of hazard and risk maps to be tested. The final map shows interesting results and stressesthe need for the GIS to test and improve on thegroundwater contamination risk assessment methods.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 55
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 21 (2000), S. 225-245 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; emergency preparedness ; legislative measures ; flood prevention and mitigation ; forecasting and warning ; control structure ; public participation ; Canada ; Red River Valley
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts. In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 56
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Tsunami catalog ; precursors ; warning system ; public education ; risk assessment ; Mexico ; Mesoamerican subduction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract From an inspection of all tide gauge records for the western coast of Mexico over the last 37 years, a data base of all recorded tsunamis was made. Information on relevant historical events dating back two centuries, using newspaper archives, previous catalogs, and local witness interviews, was added to produce a catalog of tsunamis for the western coast of Mexico. A description of the 1932 Cuyutlán tsunami is given. This is considered to be the most destructive local tsunami which has ever occurred in the region for which historical accounts are available. It was preceded by two precursor events, a not uncommon occurrence in that zone. A summary of the generation and coastal effects from the 1985 Michoacán tsunamis is also given. These Michoacán tsunamis are the most recent local events in that zone. This information, and knowledge of local undersea faulting characteristics along the Mexican Pacific coast, leads to a clear differentiation of two zones of potential tsunami hazard: locally generated tsunamis south of the Rivera fracture, in the Cocos plate subsidence region, and remotely generated tsunamis north of this zone. Based on this zonation, two types of tsunami warning systems are proposed: real-time for the southern zone, and delayed-time for the northern. A description is provided of the Baja California Regional Tsunami Warning System that is presently operational in the northern zone. Several major industrial ports and tourist resort areas are located in the southern zone, and are therefore most vulnerable to local destructive tsunamis. Some of these sites represent important socioeconomic resources for Mexico, and have therefore been chosen for a vulnerability assessment and microzonation risk analysis. Land use patterns are identified, risks defined, and recommendations to minimize future tsunami impact are given. One case is illustrated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 57
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 58
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 59
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 489-501 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis ; environmental policy ; precautionary principle ; risk assessment ; sustainable development
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Revisions to the European Treaty of Union require some form of environmental appraisal – primarily risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis – of regulatory initiatives by the European Commission. A retrospective look at the emergence of environmental appraisal also shows that, while the Commission has made great advances in introducing cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness appraisals in recent years, past environmental decisions and overall environmental policy have not been informed by systematic appraisal techniques. Nor is it clear what role is now being played by risk assessments. While it is impossible to gauge the extent to which systematic appraisal procedures will save on regulatory and compliance expenditures, some indications are provided of the costs of past neglect of these procedures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 60
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 61
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 62
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 63
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 64
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 65
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 66
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 67
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 68
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 69
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 70
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 71
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 72
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 73
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 74
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 75
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 76
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 77
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 167-176 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollution ; health effects ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Based on combined information available from air quality monitoring data and long-range transport models, European population exposure to SO2, NO2 and O3 has been estimated. This information has been combined with the results of epidemiological studies assessing strength of association between the exposure and health effects to estimate an impact of the pollution on health in Europe. The analysis indicates that a considerable number of health problems, ranging from mild irritation of the respiratory system to increased mortality, can be attributed to short-term peaks of pollution observed in Europe. Chronic impacts of prolonged elevated SO2 levels on lung function are estimated to occur in close to10 million people in Europe.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 78
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 90 (1996), S. 335-343 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: snowmelt ; runoff ; net radiation ; snow cover ; climate change ; water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In mountainous regions where the accumulation and melt of seasonal snow cover are important for runoff production, the timing and quantity of water supply could be strongly affected by regional climate change, particularly altered temperature and precipitation regimes.In this paper, the hydrological response to climate change scenarios is examined using a semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. The model represents an improvement over simple temperature-based models, in that it incorporates the net radiation into the snowpack. Thus it takes into account the basin's topography and slope orientation when computing snowmelt. In general, a warmer climate is expected to shift snowmelt earlier into the winter and spring, decreasing summer runoff. The effects of other potential climate changes (such as precipitation and cloudiness patterns) are explored. The uncertainties in these predictions are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 79
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: mercury ; foodplains ; humic substances ; complexation ; speciation ; mobilization ; risk assessment ; water solubility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The water-mobilizability of mercury from contaminated floodplain soils of the river Elbe in Northern Germany was evaluated by batch extraction experiments. It was shown that only a small amount of the total mercury present (about 1% per extraction) can be mobilized by water. This mercury is transported entirely in the form of a complex bound to humic acids (HA); particulates and fulvic acids (FA) did not seem to contribute to the process. It could not be removed from the HA even at pH 1, indicating an extremely strong complexation e.g. by sulfur-containing ligands. Furthermore, the influence of pH on the mobilization was investigated. It was found that in the range of natural pH-values, there was no observable effect of pH on the mobilization of either mercury or dissolved organic carbon (DOC). This surprising finding is explained by an unexpectedly high buffering capacity of the humics, both in the acidic and in the alkaline region. Only at extreme pH-values there was deviation from this behaviour. In contrast to other heavy metals, the amount of mobilized mercury decreases at pH 〈 3; and at pH 〉 12, an increased mobilization of mercury was observed because the humics are mobilized completely, accompanied by the total amount of mercury bound to them.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 80
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 445-454 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Choristoneura fumiferana (lepidoptera: tortricidae) ; disturbance Regimes ; trophic interactions ; climate change ; boreal forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Insect populations have a substantial impact on Canada's forest. They are a dominating disturbance factor and during outbreaks they can cause tree mortality over vast areas of forest. If the predicted climate changes take effect, the damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely limited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, potential changes in damage patterns can affect ecosystem resilience. This paper presents a number of plausible scenarios that describe how some key processes in the boreal forest's insect defoliator outbreak systems may respond to climate change. The spruce budworm,Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an illustrative case study throughout. The potential importance of phonological synchrony in the dynamical interactions between species is emphasised. It is argued that natural selection may be a particularly important process in the response of insects to climate change and that climate change may already be influencing some insect lifecycles. The importance of threshold effects, rare but extreme events, and transient dynamics is emphasised, and the inadequacy of ‘equilibrium’ models for forest:pest systems noted. We conclude by discussing approaches to developing forecasts of how one of the boreal forest's insect defoliator-based disturbance regimes, as a whole, might respond to climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 81
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 111-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate change ; embedded society ; adaptation ; biogenetics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 82
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 50 (1998), S. 173-187 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystemdynamics ; ecotone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past ∼ 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 83
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: risk assessment ; chlorinated compound ; environmental ; marine ; exposure ; aquatic toxicity ; monitoring ; trichloroethylene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This risk assessment on trichloroethylene (TRI) was carried out specifically for the marine environment, according to the methodology laid down in the EU risk assessment Regulation (1488/94) and the Guidance Document of the EU New and Existing Substances Regulation (TGD, 1997). The study consists of the collection and evaluation of data on effects and environmental concentrations from analytical monitoring programs in large rivers and estuaries in the North Sea area. The risk is indicated by the ratio of the "predicted environmental concentrations" (PEC) and the "predicted no effect concentrations" (PNEC) for the marine aquatic environment. In total, 19 studies for fish, 30 studies for invertebrates and 14 studies for algae have been evaluated. Both acute and chronic toxicity studies have been taken into account and the appropriate assessment factors have been used to define a PNEC value of 150 µg/l. Most of the available monitoring data apply to rivers and estuaries and were used to calculate PECs. The most recent data (1991-1995) support a typical PEC of 0.1 µg TRI/l water and a worst case PEC of 3.5 µg TRI/l water. The calculated PEC/PNEC ratios give a safety margin of 40 to 1,500 between the predicted no effect concentration and the exposure concentration. Additional evaluation of environmental fate and bioaccumulation characteristics showed that no concern for food chain accumulation is expected.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 84
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 59 (1999), S. 225-247 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: cross-cultural ; perceived risk ; risk ; risk analysis ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This study examines perceived risk data from the U.S., China, Japan, and South Korea. These data are then compared with similar results collected from previous studies. Psychometric scaling scores from Burkino Faso (a West African Country), France, Norway, and Hungary have been analyzed and compared with results from our study. The data reveal certain risk events like nuclear weapons, war, and AIDS to have high perceived risks in all countries. These data also show that many of the events have dissimilar perceived risks in different countries. The conclusions also show some countries have higher over all levels of perceive risk (South Korea) while others like the United States display generally lower values.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 85
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 86
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 87
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 165-178 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: exposure assessment ; ground water contamination ; risk assessment ; spatial variability ; geostatistical analysis ; deterministic modeling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a new methodology for modeling contaminant transport in ground water for (1) better quantifying the magnitude of exposure in a contaminated aquifer, (2) characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of exposure in a heterogeneous aquifer, and (3) providing more tools for characterizing population exposure. This methodology is also applied to a semi-hypothetical case study.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 88
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and ecological statistics 3 (1996), S. 81-97 
    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Keywords: gamma distribution ; left censoring ; product limit estimate ; risk assessment ; truncated normal distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A frequent assumption in environmental risk assessment is that the underlying distribution of an analyte concentration is lognormal. However, the distribution of a random variable whose log has a t-distribution has infinite mean. Because of the proximity of the standard normal and t-distribution, this suggests that a distribution such as the gamma or truncated normal, with smaller right tail probabilities, might make a better statistical model for mean estimation than the lognormal. In order to assess the effect of departures from lognormality on lognormal-based statistics, we simulated complete lognormal, truncated normal, and gamma data for various sample sizes and coefficients of variation. In these cases, departures from lognormality were not easily detected with the Shapiro-Wilk test. Various lognormal-based estimates and tests were compared with alternate methods based on the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The examples were also considered in the presence of random left censoring with the mean and standard error of the product limit estimate replacing the ordinary sample mean and standard error. The results suggest that in the estimation of or tests about a mean, if the assumption of lognormality is at all suspect, then lognormal-based approaches may not be as good as the alternative methods.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 89
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 5 (1996), S. 59-81 
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: pesticides ; synergism ; risk assessment ; wildlife
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Reviews of pesticide usage survey data and vertebrate wildlife and honeybee poisoning incident schemes in the UK show that there is considerable potential for wildlife to be exposed to combinations of agricultural pesticides. According to the published literature the toxicity of many pesticide combinations is at least additive. In some cases pesticide mixtures, particularly those involving insecticides, have been shown to be synergistic, with reported increases in toxicity of up to 100-fold. However, these effects are species, time and dose dependent and are therefore difficult to predict routinely. It is suggested that risk assessments should routinely take additive toxicity into account and those based on synergism should be targeted at those mixtures for which a further defined increase in toxicity would result in a high-risk classification. In order to support this risk assessment approach there is a need to develop and validate a standard in vivo test in order to confirm the interaction in those cases where additive or synergistic toxicity results in a high-risk classification.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 90
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 5 (1996), S. 139-144 
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: ED point ; NOEL ; risk assessment ; pesticides
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The availability and use of ED point and NOEL values in ecotoxicological data submitted to the UK Pesticides Safety Directorate is explored. In first tier data normally submitted for pesticide registration, ED points such as EC/LC/LD50s are commonly available from acute laboratory toxicity studies conducted using birds, small mammals, fish, aquatic invertebrates, plants, honeybees and earthworms. These ED points are subsequently used for hazard classification of the pesticide and in toxicity: exposure ratio (TER) calculations required during the acute risk assessment. Although NOELs can often be available from the same first tier data, they are generally not used. However, NOELs commonly available from higher tier chronic toxicity studies such as chronic fish, Daphnia reproduction and avian reproduction studies, are used in TER calculations to assess chronic risk. The statistical limitations of the NOEL are recognized and the regulatory implications of replacing the NOEL with an alternative ED point are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 91
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Keywords: climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Philosophy
    Notes: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 92
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 9 (2000), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: pyridaben ; water-effect ratio ; WER ; FIFRA ; hazard assessment ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The toxicity and environmental fate of the insecticide-miticide, pyridaben were investigated using both standardized laboratory procedures and outdoor studies with natural water. Outdoor studies provide a more realistic exposure scenario to aquatic organisms and any toxicity is a response to actual exposure concentrations resulting from the natural degradation and dissipation of the chemical. This paper describes the environmental chemistry/fate and aquatic toxicity of pyridaben. The subsequent paper describes the results of the outdoor aquatic toxicity studies and the use of the water-effect ratio in hazard/risk assessment. Environmental fate studies indicate that pyridaben has a low water solubility and high Kd and Koc values, which favors partitioning from water onto soil and sediment. Pyridaben is stable to hydrolysis but has a short photolysis half-life in water (〈30 min) and soil (∼11 d). Furthermore, pyridaben has a short half-life in soil (12 to 14 d) when applied in the field to citrus crops. Laboratory studies with constant 48- to 96-h exposures to pyridaben show it is acutely toxic to fish (Lepomis macrochirus, Pimephales promelas, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Cyprinodon variegatus) and invertebrates (Daphnia magna, Mysidopsis bahia). Invertebrates are more sensitive (lower LC50s) than fish to pyridaben, and most mortalities occur 〈24 h for fish and 〈72 h for invertebrates. Chronic laboratory studies indicate that the MATCs for pyridaben and D. magna, M. bahia and P. promelas were 0.12, 0.15 and 0.39 μg/L, respectively. Acute-to-chronic ratios for pyridaben are low for fish and invertebrates, indicating a low potential for residual activity. Chronic toxicity to aquatic organisms is not an issue after application in the field because exposures tend to be brief.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 93
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Ecotoxicology 9 (2000), S. 169-177 
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: pyridaben ; water-effect ratio ; FIFRA ; hazard assessment ; risk assessment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Outdoor acute aquatic toxicity studies with pyridaben and bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) and mysid (Mysidopsis bahia) showed that the 96-h LC50s in site-specific water were significantly greater than in classical laboratory studies. In addition, outdoor acute studies showed that pyridaben degrades rapidly in water, in hours, which supports other laboratory and field studies on the fate of pyridaben in aquatic systems. Chronic toxicity to aquatic organisms is not an issue after application in the field because exposures will be brief. The water-effect ratio (WER) of site-specific to laboratory-water 96-h LC50s for L. macrochirus and M. bahia were 18.5 and 24.5, respectively. The lowest WER was used as an application factor with the laboratory LC50 values of several other aquatic organisms to develop “adjusted” site-specific LC50 values. Comparison of the distribution of “adjusted” LC50 values with a distribution of potential environmental exposure concentrations for pyridaben in water indicates minimal acute risk to aquatic organisms. When only acute laboratory data are available, the WER approach is a relevant and realistic means for determining an application factor and for estimating the aquatic hazard/risk assessment of non-persistent pesticides, because it considers a host of factors that affect bioavailability and subsequent toxicity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 94
    ISSN: 1573-3017
    Keywords: lead ; waterfawl ; sediment ; toxicity ; mining ; risk assessment ; swans ; ALAD ; protoporphyrin
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract For many years, waterfowl have been poisoned by lead after ingesting contaminated sediment in the Coeur d'Alene River Basin, in Idaho. Results of studies on waterfowl experimentally fed this sediment were combined with results from field studies conducted in the Basin to relate sediment lead concentration to injury to waterfowl. The first step in the model estimated exposure as the relation of sediment lead concentration to blood lead concentration in mute swans (Cygnus olor), ingesting 22% sediment in a rice diet. That rate corresponded to the 90th percentile of sediment ingestion estimated from analyses of feces of tundra swans (Olor columbianus) in the Basin. Then, with additional laboratory studies on Canada geese (Branta canadensis) and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) fed the sediment, we developed the general relation of blood lead to injury in waterfowl. Injury was quantified by blood lead concentrations, ALAD (δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase) activity, protoporphyrin concentrations, hemoglobin concentrations, hepatic lead concentrations, and the prevalence of renal nuclear inclusion bodies. Putting the exposure and injury relations together provided a powerful tool for assessing hazards to wildlife in the Basin. The no effect concentration of sediment lead was estimated as 24 mg/kg and the lowest effect level as 530 mg/kg. By combining our exposure equation with data on blood lead concentrations measured in moribund tundra swans in the Basin, we estimated that some mortality would occur at a sediment lead concentration as low as 1800 mg/kg.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 95
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 96
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 97
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 98
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 100
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...