ALBERT

Description: "With so much media and political criticism of their shortcomings and failures, it is easy to overlook the fact that many governments work pretty well much of the time. Great Policy Successes turns the spotlight on instances of public policy that are remarkably successful. It develops a framework for identifying and assessing policy successes, paying attention not just to their programmatic outcomes but also to the quality of the processes by which policies are designed and delivered, the level of support and legitimacy they attain, and the extent to which successful performance endures over time. The bulk of the book is then devoted to 15 detailed case studies of striking policy successes from around the world, including Singapore's public health system, Copenhagen and Melbourne's rise from stilted backwaters to the highly liveable and dynamic urban centres they are today, Brazil's Bolsa Familia poverty relief scheme, the US's GI Bill, and Germany's breakthrough labour market reforms of the 2000s. Each case is set in context, its main actors are introduced, key events and decisions are described, the assessment framework is applied to gauge the nature and level of its success, key contributing factors to success are identified, and potential lessons and future challenges are identified. Purposefully avoiding the kind of heavy theorizing that characterizes many accounts of public policy processes, each case is written in an accessible and narrative style ideally suited for classroom use in conjunction with mainstream textbooks on public policy design, implementation, and evaluation.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The investigation of using a novel radial basis function-based meshfree method for forward modelling magnetotelluric data is presented. The meshfree method, which can be termed radial basis function-based finite difference (RBF-FD), uses only a cloud of unconnected points to obtain the numerical solution throughout the computational domain. Unlike mesh-based numerical methods (for example, grid-based finite difference, finite volume and finite element), the meshfree method has the unique feature that the discretization of the conductivity model can be decoupled from the discretization used for numerical computation, thus avoiding traditional expensive mesh generation and allowing complicated geometries of the model be easily represented. To accelerate the computation, unstructured point discretization with local refinements are employed. Maxwell’s equations in the frequency domain are re-formulated using $\mathbf {A}$-ψ potentials in conjuction with the Coulomb gauge condition, and are solved numerically with a direct solver to obtain magnetotelluric responses. A major obstacle in applying common meshfree methods in modelling geophysical electromagnetic data is that they are incapable of reproducing discontinuous fields such as the discontinuous electric field over conductivity jumps, causing spurious solutions. The occurrence of spurious, or non-physical, solutions when applying standard meshfree methods is removed here by proposing a novel mixed scheme of the RBF-FD and a Galerkin-type weak-form treatment in discretizing the equations. The RBF-FD is applied to the points in uniform conductivity regions, whereas the weak-form treatment is introduced to points located on the interfaces separating different homogeneous conductivity regions. The effectiveness of the proposed meshfree method is validated with two numerical examples of modelling the magnetotelluric responses over three-dimensional conductivity models.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Receiver functions are sensitive to sharp seismic velocity variations with depth and are commonly used to constrain crustal thickness. The H-κ stacking method of Zhu and Kanamori (〈span〉2000〈/span〉) is often employed to constrain both the crustal thickness (H) and ${V_P}$/${V_S}$ ratio ($\kappa $) beneath a seismic station using P-to-s converted waves (Ps). However, traditional H-κ stacks require an assumption of average crustal velocity (usually ${V_P}$). Additionally, large amplitude reverberations from low velocity shallow layers, such as sedimentary basins, can overprint sought-after crustal signals, rendering traditional H-$\ \kappa $ stacking uninterpretable. We overcome these difficulties in two ways. When S-wave reverberations from sediment are present, they are removed by applying a resonance removal filter allowing crustal signals to be clarified and interpreted. We also combine complementary Ps receiver functions, Sp receiver functions, and the post-critical P wave reflection from the Moho (SP〈sub〉m〈/sub〉p) to remove the dependence on an assumed average crustal ${V_P}$. By correcting for sediment and combining multiple data sets, the crustal thickness, average crustal P-wave velocity, and crustal ${V_P}$/${V_S}$ ratio is constrained in geologic regions where traditional H-$\ \kappa $ stacking fails, without making an initial P-wave velocity assumption or suffering from contamination by sedimentary reverberations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉In the original version of this article the author, Adrian Flores Orozco, was incorrectly listed. This has now been corrected and the publisher apologises for the error.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The evolution of the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) since Jurassic is one of the key issues in the dynamics of lithosphere and mantle. The related studies benefited mostly from seismic tomography which provides velocity structures in the upper mantle. However, the upper-mantle structure is not well resolved compared to the continental areas due to the lack of seismic data in the Philippine Sea. We employ a 3-D gravity inversion constrained by an initial model based on the 〈span〉S〈/span〉-wave tomography (SL2013sv; Schaeffer & Lebedev 2013) to image the density structure of the upper mantle of the PSP and adjacent region. The resulting model shows a three-layer pattern of vertical high-low-high density variation in the upper mantle under the PSP. The thin high-density layer evidences for strong oceanic lithosphere in the West Philippine Sea. The relatively low dense mantle located below the PSP possibly originates from the asthenosphere. The PSP differs from the Pacific and the Indian-Australian plates in the whole depth range, while its structure is similar to the eastern Eurasian and Sunda plates. In the depth range, 200–300 km, the relative high-density zone beneath PSP extends to the Sunda Plate and to the eastern Eurasian Plate. We further estimated the conversion factor of our density model and the velocity model (SL2013sv; Schaeffer & Lebedev 2013) in order to locate the changes of compositional effects in the upper mantle. The negative conversion factor indicates that the compositional changes primarily affect the density anomalies beneath the PSP. We, therefore, describe the layered density structures as ‘sandwich’ pattern, which is unique and different from adjacent regions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Low-velocity layers within the crust can indicate the presence of melt and lithologic differences with implications for crustal composition and formation. Seismic wave conversions and reverberations across the base of the crust or intracrustal discontinuities, analysed using the receiver function method, can be used to constrain crustal layering. This is commonly accomplished by inverting receiver functions jointly with surface wave dispersion. Recently, the proliferation of model-space search approaches has made this technique a workhorse of crustal seismology. We show that reverberations from shallow layers such as sedimentary basins produce spurious low-velocity zones when inverted for crustal structure with surface wave data of insufficiently high frequency. Therefore, reports of such layers in the literature based on inversions using receiver function data should be re-evaluated. We demonstrate that a simple resonance-removal filter can suppress these effects and yield reliable estimates of crustal structure, and advocate for its use in receiver-function based inversions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a numerical method for simulating both single-event dynamic ruptures and earthquake sequences with full inertial effects in antiplane shear with rate-and-state fault friction. We use the second-order form of the wave equation, expressed in terms of displacements, discretized with high-order-accurate finite difference operators in space. Advantages of this method over other methods include reduced computational memory usage and reduced spurious high frequency oscillations. Our method handles complex geometries, such as non-planar fault interfaces and free surface topography. Boundary conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. We prove time stability by constructing discrete energy estimates. We present numerical experiments demonstrating the stability and convergence of the method, and showcasing applications of the method, including the transition in rupture style from crack-like ruptures to slip pulses for strongly rate-weakening friction and the simulation of earthquake sequences in a viscoelastic solid with a fully dynamic coseismic phase.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We derive a theoretical relationship between the cross correlation of ambient Rayleigh waves (seismic ambient noise) and the attenuation parameter α associated with Rayleigh-wave propagation. In particular, we derive a mathematical expression for the multiplicative factor relating normalized cross correlation to the Rayleigh-wave Green’s function. Based on this expression, we formulate an inverse problem to determine α from cross correlations of recorded ambient signal. We conduct a preliminary application of our algorithm to a relatively small instrument array, conveniently deployed on an island. In our setup, the mentioned multiplicative factor has values of about 2.5 to 3, which, if neglected, could result in a significant underestimate of α. We find that our inferred values of α are reasonable, in comparison with independently obtained estimates found in the literature. Allowing α to vary with respect to frequency results in a reduction of misfit between observed and predicted cross correlations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Global phases, viz. seismic phases that travel through the Earth’s core, can be used to locally image the crust by means of seismic interferometry. This method is known as Global Phase Seismic Interferometry (GloPSI). Traditionally, GloPSI retrieves low-frequency information (up to 1 Hz). Recent studies, however, suggest that there is high-frequency signal present in the coda of strong, distant earthquakes. This research quantifies the potential of these high-frequency signals, by analysing recordings of a multitude of high-magnitude earthquakes (≥6.4 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉) and their coda on a selection of permanent USArray stations. Nearly half of the 〈span〉P, PKP〈/span〉 and PKIKP phases are recorded with a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 5 dB at 3 Hz. To assess the viability of using the high-frequency signal, the second half of the paper highlights two case studies. First, a known sedimentary structure is imaged in Malargüe, Argentina. Secondly, the method is used to reveal the structure of the Midcontinent Rift below the SPREE array in Minnesota, USA. Both studies demonstrate that structural information of the shallow crust (≤5 km) below the arrays can be retrieved. In particular, the interpreted thickness of the sedimentary layer below the Malargüe array is in agreement with earlier studies in the same area. Being able to use global phases and direct 〈span〉P〈/span〉-phases with large epicentral distances (〉80°) to recover the Earth’s sedimentary structure suggests that GloPSI can be applied in an industrial context.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The localization of passive seismic sources in form of microseismic tremors as well as large-scale earthquakes is a key issue in seismology. While most previous studies are assuming fairly good knowledge of the underlying velocity model, we propose an automatic spatial localization and joint velocity model building scheme that is independent of detailed 〈span〉a priori〈/span〉 information. The first step is a coherence analysis, estimating so-called wavefront attributes to locally describe the wavefield in terms of slopes and curvatures. In a similar fashion, we also obtain an initial guess of the source excitation times of the recorded events. The wavefront attributes constitute the input for wavefront tomography which represents the next step of the workflow and allows for a refinement of the previously evaluated source excitation times while simultaneously approximating the velocity distribution. In a last step, we use the final estimate of the velocity distribution and compute the respective image function by reverse time modelling to gain the source locations. This paper introduces the theoretical concept of our proposed approach for the general 3-D case. We analyse the feasibility of our strategy and the influences of different acquisition settings by means of a synthetic 2-D data example. In a final 3-D field data example we use the workflow to localize a deep earthquake without relying on a given velocity model. The approach can deal with high levels of noise and low signal amplitudes, respectively, as well as sparse geophone sampling. The workflow generally delivers good approximations of the long-wavelength velocity variations along with accurate source locations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The 2017 July 20, 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake occurred in the Gulf of Gökova in the SE Aegean, a region characterized by N–S extension in the backarc of the easternmost Hellenic Trench. The dip direction of the fault that ruptured during the earthquake has been a matter of controversy where both north- and south-dipping fault planes were used to model the coseismic slip in previous studies. Here, we use seismic (seismicity, main shock modelling, aftershock relocations and aftershock mechanisms using regional body and surface waves), geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and structural observations to estimate the location, and the dip direction of the fault that ruptured during the 2017 earthquake, and the relationship of this event to regional tectonics. We consider both dip directions and systematically search for the best-fitting locations for the north- and south-dipping fault planes. Comparing the best-fitting planes for both dip directions in terms of their misfit to the geodetic data, proximity to the hypocenter location and Coulomb stress changes at the aftershock locations, we conclude that the 2017 earthquake ruptured a north-dipping fault. We find that the earthquake occurred on a 20–25 km long, ∼E–W striking, 40° north-dipping, pure normal fault with slip primarily confined between 3 and 15 km depth, and the largest slip exceeding 2 m between depths of 4 and 10 km. The coseismic fault, not mapped previously, projects to the surface within the western Gulf, and partly serves both to widen the Gulf and separate Kos Island from the Bodrum Peninsula of SW Anatolia. The coseismic fault may be an extension of a mapped, north-dipping normal fault along the south side of the Gulf of Gökova. While all of the larger aftershocks are consistent with N–S extension, their spatially dispersed pattern attests to the high degree of crustal fracturing within the basin, due to rapid trenchward extension and anticlockwise rotation within the southeastern Aegean.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The harmonic electromagnetic noise produced by anthropic electrical structures is a critical component of the global noise affecting geophysical signals and increasing data uncertainty. It is composed of a series of harmonic signals whose frequencies are multiple integers of the fundamental frequency specific to the electrical noise source. To date, most model-based noise removal strategies assume that the fundamental frequency constraining the harmonic noise is single and constant over the duration of the geophysical record. In this paper, we demonstrate that classical harmonic processing methods lose efficacy when these assumptions are not valid. We present several surface nuclear magnetic resonance field data sets, which testify the increasing probability of recording the harmonic noise with such multiple or unstable frequency content. For each case (multiple frequencies or unstable frequency) we propose new processing strategies, namely, the 〈span〉2-D grid-search〈/span〉 and the 〈span〉segmentation〈/span〉 approach, respectively, which efficiently manage to remove the harmonic noise in these difficult conditions. In the process, we also apply a fast frequency estimator called the Nyman, Gaiser and Saucier estimation method, which shows equivalent performance as classical estimators while allowing a reduction of the computing time by a factor of 2.5.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasible solutions can occur. Two methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquakes: integer programming and the greedy-sequential algorithm. For the integer-programming method, the binary decision vector includes all possible locations along the fault where each earthquake can occur. Once a set of solutions that satisfy the constraints is found, the cumulative slip misfit on the fault is globally minimized relative to the target slip-rate function. The greedy algorithm sequentially places earthquakes to locally optimize slip accumulation. As a case study, we calculate how earthquakes are distributed along the megathrust of the Nankai subduction zone, in which the slip rate varies significantly along strike. For both methods, the spatial distribution of magnitudes depends on slip rate, except for the largest magnitude earthquakes that span multiple sections of the fault. The greedy-sequential algorithm, previously applied to this fault (Parsons et al., 2012), tends to produce smoother spatial distributions and fewer lower magnitude earthquakes in the low slip-rate section of the fault compared to the integer-programming method. Differences in results from the two methods relate to how much emphasis is placed on minimizing the misfit to the target slip rate (integer programming) compared to finding a solution within the slip-rate constraints (greedy sequential). Specifics of the spatial distribution of magnitudes also depend on the shape of the target slip-rate function: that is, stepped at the section boundaries versus a smooth function. This study isolates the effects of slip-rate variation along a single fault in determining the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes, helping to better interpret results from more complex, interconnected fault systems.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The southcentral Hikurangi subduction margin (North Island, New Zealand) has a wide, low-taper accretionary wedge that is frontally accreting a 〉3-km-thick layer of sediments, with deformation currently focused near the toe of the wedge. We use a geological model based on a depth-converted seismic section, together with physically realistic parameters for fluid pressure, and sediment and décollement friction based on laboratory experiments, to investigate the present-day force balance in the wedge. Numerical models are used to establish the range of physical parameters compatible with the present-day wedge geometry and mechanics. Our analysis shows that the accretionary wedge stability and taper angle require either high to moderate fluid pressure on the plate interface, and/or weak frictional strength along the décollement. The décollement beneath the outer wedge requires a relatively weaker effective strength than beneath the inner (consolidated) wedge. Increasing density and cohesion with depth make it easier to attain a stable taper within the inner wedge, while anything that weakens the wedge—such as high fluid pressures and weak faults—make it harder. Our results allow a near-hydrostatic wedge fluid pressure, sublithostatic fluid overpressure at the subduction interface, and friction coefficients compatible with measurements from laboratory experiments on weak clay minerals.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a new methodology to compute the gravitational fields generated by tesseroids (spherical prisms) whose density varies with depth according to an arbitrary continuous function. It approximates the gravitational fields through the Gauss–Legendre Quadrature along with two discretization algorithms that automatically control its accuracy by adaptively dividing the tesseroid into smaller ones. The first one is a preexisting 2-D adaptive discretization algorithm that reduces the errors due to the distance between the tesseroid and the computation point. The second is a new density-based discretization algorithm that decreases the errors introduced by the variation of the density function with depth. The amount of divisions made by each algorithm is indirectly controlled by two parameters: the distance-size ratio and the delta ratio. We have obtained analytical solutions for a spherical shell with radially variable density and compared them to the results of the numerical model for linear, exponential, and sinusoidal density functions. The heavily oscillating density functions are intended only to test the algorithm to its limits and not to emulate a real world case. These comparisons allowed us to obtain optimal values for the distance-size and delta ratios that yield an accuracy of 0.1 per cent of the analytical solutions. The resulting optimal values of distance-size ratio for the gravitational potential and its gradient are 1 and 2.5, respectively. The density-based discretization algorithm produces no discretizations in the linear density case, but a delta ratio of 0.1 is needed for the exponential and most sinusoidal density functions. These values can be extrapolated to cover most common use cases, which are simpler than oscillating density profiles. However, the distance-size and delta ratios can be configured by the user to increase the accuracy of the results at the expense of computational speed. Finally, we apply this new methodology to model the Neuquén Basin, a foreland basin in Argentina with a maximum depth of over 5000 m, using an exponential density function.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The dynamics of dyke emplacement are typically modeled by assuming an elastic rheology for the host rock. However, the resulting stress field predicts significant shear failure in the region surrounding the dyke tip. Here, we model the dyking process in an elastic-perfectly plastic host rock in order to simulate distributed shear fracturing and subsequent frictional slip on the fracture surfaces. The fluid mechanical aspects of the magma are neglected as we are interested only in the fracture mechanics of the process. Magma overpressure in dykes is typically of the same order of magnitude as the yield stress of the host rock in shear, especially when the pressure effect of volatiles exsolving from the magma is taken into account. Under these conditions, the plastic deformation zone has spatial dimensions that approach the length of the dyke itself, and concepts based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) no longer apply. As incremental plasticity is path dependent, we describe two geologically meaningful endmember cases, namely dyke propagation at constant driving pressure, and gradual inflation of a pre-existing crack. For both models, we find that plastic deformation surrounding the fracture tip enhances dyke opening, and thus increases the energy input into the system due to pressure work integrated over the fracture wall. At the same time, energy is dissipated by plastic deformation. Dissipation in the propagation model is greater by about an order of magnitude than it is in the inflation model because the propagating dyke tip leaves behind it a broad halo of deformation due to plastic bending and unbending in the relict process zone. The net effect is that plastic deformation impedes dyke growth in the propagation model, while it enhances dyke growth in the inflation model. The results show that, when the plastic failure zone is large, a single parameter such as fracture toughness is unable to capture the physics that underpin the resistance of a fracture or dyke against propagation. In these cases, plastic failure has to be modeled explicitly for the given conditions. We provide analytical approximations for the propagation forces and the maximum dyke aperture for the two endmember cases, that is, the propagating dyke and the dyke formed by inflation of a crack. Furthermore, we show that the effect of plasticity on dyke energetics, together with an overestimate of magma pressure when interpreting dyke aspect ratios using elastic host rock models, offers a possible explanation for the long-standing paradox that laboratory measurements of fracture toughness of rocks consistently indicate values about two orders of magnitude lower than those derived from dyke observations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Building geomechanical models for induced seismicity in complex reservoirs poses a major challenge, in particular if many faults need to be included. We developed a novel way of calculating induced stress changes and associated seismic moment response for structurally complex reservoirs with tens to hundreds of faults. Our specific target was to improve the predictive capability of stress evolution along multiple faults, and to use the calculations to enhance physics-based understanding of the reservoir seismicity. Our methodology deploys a mesh-free numerical and analytical approach for both the stress calculation and the seismic moment calculation. We introduce a high-performance computational method for high-resolution induced Coulomb stress changes along faults, based on a Green's function for the stress response to a nucleus of strain. One key ingredient is the deployment of an octree representation and calculation scheme for the nuclei of strain, based on the topology and spatial variability of the mesh of the reservoir flow model. Once the induced stress changes are evaluated along multiple faults, we calculate potential seismic moment release in a fault system supposing an initial stress field. The capability of the approach, dubbed as MACRIS (〈strong〉M〈/strong〉echanical 〈strong〉A〈/strong〉nalysis of 〈strong〉C〈/strong〉omplex 〈strong〉R〈/strong〉eservoirs for 〈strong〉I〈/strong〉nduced 〈strong〉S〈/strong〉eismicity) is proven through comparisons with finite element models. Computational performance and suitability for probabilistic assessment of seismic hazards are demonstrated though the use of the complex, heavily faulted Gullfaks field.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We test the feasibility of GPS-based rapid centroid moment tensor (GPS CMT) methods for Taiwan, one of the most earthquake prone areas in the world. In recent years, Taiwan has become a leading developer of seismometer-based earthquake early warning systems, which have successfully been applied to several large events. The rapid determination of earthquake magnitude and focal mechanism, important for a number of rapid response applications, including tsunami warning, is still challenging because of the limitations of near-field inertial recordings. This instrumental issue can be solved by an entirely different observation system: a GPS network. Taiwan is well posed to take advantage of GPS because in the last decade it has developed a very dense network. Thus, in this research, we explore the suitability of the GPS CMT inversion for Taiwan. We retrospectively investigate six moderate to large (〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉6.0 ∼ 7.0) earthquakes and propose a resolution test for our model, we find that the minimum resolvable earthquake magnitude of this system is ∼〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉5.5 (at 5 km depth). Our tests also suggest that the finite fault complexity, often challenging for the near-field methodology, can be ignored under such good station coverage and thus, can provide a fast and robust solution for large earthquake directly from the near field. Our findings help to understand and quantify how the proposed methodology could be implemented in real time and what its contributions could be to the overall earthquake monitoring system.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Time-domain processing of seismic reflection data has always been an important engine that is routinely utilized to produce seismic images and to expeditiously construct subsurface models. The conventional procedure involves analysing parameters related to the derivatives of reflection traveltime with respect to offset including normal moveout (NMO) velocities (second-order derivatives) and quartic coefficients (fourth-order derivatives). In this study, we propose to go beyond the typical assumption of 1-D laterally homogeneous medium when relating those ‘processing’ parameters to the subsurface medium parameters and take into account the additional influences from lateral heterogeneity including curved interfaces and smoothly variable velocities. We fill in the theoretical gap from previous studies and develop a general framework for such connection in layered anisotropic media. We show that in general, the influences of lateral heterogeneity get accumulated from all layers via a recursive relationship according to the Fermat’s principle and can be approximately quantified in terms of the lateral derivatives of the layer interface surfaces and velocities. Based on the same general principle, we show that our approach can also be used to study the lateral heterogeneity effects on diffraction traveltime and its second-order derivative related to time-migration velocity. In this paper, we explicitly specify expressions for NMO and time-migration velocities with the influences from both types of heterogeneity suitable for 2-D data sets and also discuss possible extensions of the proposed theory to 3-D data sets and to parameters related to higher-order traveltime derivatives. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that the proposed theory can lead to more accurate reflection and diffraction traveltime predictions in comparison with those obtained based on the 1-D assumption. Both the proposed theoretical framework and its numerical testing for forward traveltime computation presented in this study aid in understanding the effects from lateral heterogeneity on time-processing parameters and also serve as an important basis for designing an efficient technique to separate those influences in important processes such as Dix inversion for a more accurate subsurface model in the future.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Estimating shear wave velocity with depth from Rayleigh-wave dispersion data is limited by the accuracy of fundamental and higher mode identification and characterization. In many cases, the fundamental mode signal propagates exclusively in retrograde motion, while higher modes propagate in prograde motion. It has previously been shown that differences in particle motion can be identified with multicomponent recordings and used to separate prograde from retrograde signals. Here we explore the domain of existence of prograde motion of the fundamental mode, arising from a combination of two conditions: (1) a shallow, high-impedance contrast and (2) a high Poisson ratio material. We present solutions to isolate fundamental and higher mode signals using multicomponent recordings. Previously, a time-domain polarity mute was used with limited success due to the overlap in the time domain of fundamental and higher mode signals at low frequencies. We present several new approaches to overcome this low-frequency obstacle, all of which utilize the different particle motions of retrograde and prograde signals. First, the Hilbert transform is used to phase shift one component by 90° prior to summation or subtraction of the other component. This enhances either retrograde or prograde motion and can increase the mode amplitude. Secondly, we present a new time–frequency domain polarity mute to separate retrograde and prograde signals. We demonstrate these methods with synthetic and field data to highlight the improvements to dispersion images and the resulting dispersion curve extraction.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We use seismic noise cross-correlations to obtain a 3-D tomography model of 〈span〉SV〈/span〉-wave velocities beneath the western Indian Ocean, in the depth range of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle. The study area covers 2000 × 2000 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 between Madagascar and the three spreading ridges of the Indian Ocean, centred on the volcanic hotspot of La Réunion. We use seismograms from 38 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed by the RHUM-RUM project and 10 island stations on La Réunion, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rodrigues, and Tromelin. Phase cross-correlations are calculated for 1119 OBS-to-OBS, land-to-OBS, and land-to-land station pairs, and a phase-weighted stacking algorithm yields robust group velocity measurements in the period range of 3–50 s. We demonstrate that OBS correlations across large interstation distances of 〉2000 km are of sufficiently high quality for large-scale tomography of ocean basins. Many OBSs yielded similarly good group velocity measurements as land stations. Besides Rayleigh waves, the noise correlations contain a low-velocity wave type propagating at 0.8–1.5 km s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 over distances exceeding 1000 km, presumably Scholte waves travelling through seafloor sediments. The 100 highest-quality group velocity curves are selected for tomographic inversion at crustal and lithospheric depths. The inversion is executed jointly with a data set of longer-period, Rayleigh-wave phase and group velocity measurements from earthquakes, which had previously yielded a 3-D model of Indian Ocean lithosphere and asthenosphere. Robust resolution tests and plausible structural findings in the upper 30 km validate the use of noise-derived OBS correlations for adding crustal structure to earthquake-derived tomography of the oceanic mantle. Relative to crustal reference model CRUST1.0, our new shear-velocity model tends to enhance both slow and fast anomalies. It reveals slow anomalies at 20 km depth beneath La Réunion, Mauritius, Rodrigues Ridge, Madagascar Rise, and beneath the Central Indian spreading ridge. These structures can clearly be associated with increased crustal thickness and/or volcanic activity. Locally thickened crust beneath La Réunion and Mauritius is probably related to magmatic underplating by the hotspot. In addition, these islands are characterized by a thickened lithosphere that may reflect the depleted, dehydrated mantle regions from which the crustal melts where sourced. Our tomography model is available as electronic supplement.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Since the completion of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission (GOCE), global gravity models of uniform quality and coverage are available. We investigate their potential of being useful tools for estimating the thermal structure of the continental lithosphere, through simulation and real-data test in Central-Eastern Europe across the Trans-European Suture Zone. Heat flow, measured near the Earth surface, is the result of the superposition of a complex set of contributions, one of them being the heat production occurring in the crust. The crust is enriched in radioactive elements respect to the underlying mantle and crustal thickness is an essential parameter in isolating the thermal contribution of the crust. Obtaining reliable estimates of crustal thickness through inversion of GOCE-derived gravity models has already proven feasible, especially when weak constraints from other observables are introduced. We test a way to integrate this in a geothermal framework, building a 3-D, steady state, solid Earth conductive heat transport model, from the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary to the surface. This thermal model is coupled with a crust-mantle boundary depth resulting from inverse modelling, after correcting the gravity model for the effects of topography, far-field isostatic roots and sediments. We employ a mixed space- and spectral-domain based forward modelling strategy to ensure full spectral coherency between the limited spectral content of the gravity model and the reductions. Deviations from a direct crustal thickness to crustal heat production relationship are accommodated using a subsequent substitution scheme, constrained by surface heat flow measurements, where available. The result is a 3-D model of the lithosphere characterised in temperature, radiogenic heat and thermal conductivity. It provides added information respect to the lithospheric structure and sparse heat flow measurements alone, revealing a satisfactory coherence with the geological features in the area and their controlling effect on the conductive heat transport.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We investigate the possibility of passive monitoring of a salt-water disposal well in British Columbia, Canada, using continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We find seismic velocity variations induced by a reduction of injection pressure in an effort to mitigate an elevated level of seismicity, most likely associated with the disposal of salt water. The relative velocity variations are derived from time-shifts measured between consecutive cross-correlation functions for each station pair in a surface array composed of five broad-band seismometers. The probable driving mechanisms responsible for the velocity changes are reduced pore pressures and/or lowered poroelastic stresses beyond the injection wellbore, respectively. Hydrologic data (e.g. snow and rainfall), noise energy trends and fluctuations in the incident direction of dominant noise sources do not correlate with the estimated relative velocity variations. Velocity variations are detected ahead of the zone of induced seismicity, thus indicating that seismic interferometry may aid in mitigation efforts to reduce the risk of induced seismicity by (1) providing verifiable and repeatable measurements of physical changes within the surrounding area and (2) providing hard constraints for modelling efforts to constrain how and where pore-pressure fronts change.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Electrical conductivity is one of the most commonly used geophysical method for reservoir and environmental studies. Its main interest lies in its sensitivity to key properties of storage and transport in porous media. Its quantitative use therefore depends on the efficiency of the petrophysical relationship to link them. In this work, we develop a new physically based model for estimating electrical conductivity of saturated porous media. The model is derived assuming that the porous media is represented by a bundle of tortuous capillary tubes with a fractal pore-size distribution. The model is expressed in terms of the porosity, electrical conductivity of the pore liquid and the microstructural parameters of porous media. It takes into account the interface properties between minerals and pore water by introducing a surface conductivity. Expressions for the formation factor and hydraulic tortuosity are also obtained from the model derivation. The model is then successfully compared with published data and performs better than previous models. The proposed approach also permits to relate the electrical conductivity to other transport properties such as the hydraulic conductivity.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Thinning of the lithosphere under continental collisional orogens is often attributed to delamination or convective thinning. Both processes remove part or all of the mantle lithosphere that has become denser and gravitationally unstable. Previous studies mostly focused on the different thermomagmatic consequences of these two processes; the dynamic links between them, and the critical conditions for one or the other process to dominate lithosphere thinning, remain uncertain. Here, we used high-resolution thermomechanical models with various rheology (linear viscous, power-law viscous and/or the extended Drucker–Prager plasticity) to systematically investigate the dynamics of delamination and convective thinning under collisional orogens. Our results show that convective thinning is favoured in models of linear (Newtonian) viscous rheology and low viscosity $({10^{19}}\!-\! {10^{20}}\,\,{\rm{Pa}} \, {\rm{s}})$. Power-law viscous rheology promotes strain localization, which reduces the effective viscosity and may lead to localized rising of the asthenosphere to the crustal base, thus triggering delamination. Further strain localization and stronger delamination are predicted with inclusion of plastic rheology in the model. These results indicate that convective thinning and delamination are dynamically linked and can occur in the same orogeny. Their relative dominance during orogenesis may be distinguished by the resulting spatiotemporal evolutions of thermal perturbation, magmatism and elevation changes. We applied the models to show that the evolution of the Central Anatolian Plateau is consistent with the dominance of convective thinning, whereas delamination played a major role in thinning the mantle lithosphere under central-northern Tibetan Plateau.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Developing a model for anthropogenic seismic hazard remains an open challenge whatever the geo-resource production. We analyse the (〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉) largest reported magnitude on each site where (RTS) Reservoir Triggered Seismicity in documented (37 events, 1933–2008), for aftershocks of reservoir impoundment loading. We relate each reservoir impoundment to its magnitude-equivalent 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 = 〈span〉M〈/span〉*(〈span〉L〈/span〉〈sub〉r〈/sub〉). We use (〈span〉L〈/span〉〈sub〉r〈/sub〉) the reservoir length as a proxy for a rupture length of the reservoir main shock-equivallent. This latter is derived from the empirical relationship that exists for tectonic earthquake among magnitude and rupture length. We resolve (i) 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 for RTS are bounded by 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 at a 95 per cent confidence level; (ii) in average 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 are smaller than 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 by 2.2 units (iii) 50 per cent of the 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 occurrence is within 2 ± 1 yr from the reservoir impoundment. These triggering patterns support the signature of fluid driven seismicity during the slow reservoir impoundment emerges as a weaker efficiency (larger Δ〈span〉M〈/span〉 = 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 – 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉) to trigger 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 events than from earthquake interactions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The activities of frontal thrusts in the northern Qilian Shan are critical for understanding the deformation of the Qilian Shan and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we estimate the slip rate of the active Fodongmiao–Hongyazi thrust along the northern margin of the Qilian Shan. High-resolution satellite imagery interpretations and detailed field investigations suggest that the fault displaced late Pleistocene terraces and formed fresh prominent north-facing fault scarps. To quantify the slip rate of the fault, we measured the displacements along the fault scarps using an unmanned aerial vehicle system and dated the displaced geomorphic surfaces using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and 〈sup〉14〈/sup〉C methods. The vertical slip rate of the fault is estimated at 1.0 ± 0.3 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 for the western segment. The slip rates for two branches in the eastern segment are 0.3 ± 0.1 and 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. Using a fault dip of 40 ± 10°, we constrain the corresponding shortening rates to 1.4 ± 0.5 and 1.2 ± 0.4 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉, respectively. The rates are consistent with values over different timescales, which suggests steady rock uplift and northeastward growth of the western Qilian Shan. Crustal shortening occurs mainly on the range-bounding frontal thrust.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a numerical method for the simulation of earthquake cycles on a 1-D fault interface embedded in a 2-D homogeneous, anisotropic elastic solid. The fault is governed by an experimentally motivated friction law known as rate-and-state friction which furnishes a set of ordinary differential equations which couple the interface to the surrounding volume. Time enters the problem through the evolution of the ordinary differential equations along the fault and provides boundary conditions for the volume, which is governed by quasi-static elasticity. We develop a time-stepping method which accounts for the interface/volume coupling and requires solving an elliptic partial differential equation for the volume response at each time step. The 2-D volume is discretized with a second-order accurate finite difference method satisfying the summation-by-parts property, with boundary and fault interface conditions enforced weakly. This framework leads to a provably stable semi-discretization. To mimic slow tectonic loading, the remote side-boundaries are displaced at a slow rate, which eventually leads to earthquake nucleation at the fault. Time stepping is based on an adaptive, fourth-order Runge–Kutta method and captures the highly varying timescales present. The method is verified with convergence tests for both the orthotropic and fully anisotropic cases. An initial parameter study reveals regions of parameter space where the systems experience a bifurcation from period one to period two behaviour. Additionally, we find that anisotropy influences the recurrence interval between earthquakes, as well as the emergence of aseismic transients and the nucleation zone size and depth of earthquakes.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Palaeomagnetic constraints are essential factors in the reconstruction of the Mesozoic convergence of Eastern Asia blocks. As one of the key blocks, Indochina was constrained only by sedimentary-rocks-derived palaeomagnetic data. To evaluate whether the palaeomagnetic data used to restore the Late Triassic position of Indochina suffered inclination shallowing effects, we conducted a palaeomagnetic and geochronologic study on a coeval volcanic clastic rocks sequence in the western margin of the Khorat Basin, Thailand. The U-Pb SIMS dating on zircons indicates the age of the sampling section is between 205.1 ± 1.5 and 204.7 ± 1.4 Ma. Site mean directions are D〈sub〉g〈/sub〉/I〈sub〉g〈/sub〉 = 217.2°/−39.4° (κ〈sub〉g〈/sub〉 = 45.1, α〈sub〉95g〈/sub〉 = 10.1°) before and D〈sub〉s〈/sub〉/I〈sub〉s〈/sub〉 = 209.2°/−44.5° (κ〈sub〉s〈/sub〉 = 43.8, α〈sub〉95s〈/sub〉 = 10.2°) after tilt correction. The new data set indicates a positive reversal test result at ‘Category C’ level. The characteristic remanent magnetization recorded by the coexistent magnetite and hematite is interpreted to be primary remanence acquired during the initial cooling of the volcanic clastic rocks. The consistence of the corresponding palaeolatitudes derived from the volcanic clastic rocks and the former reported sedimentary rocks suggests that there is probably no significant inclination shallowing bias in the sedimentary-rocks-derived palaeomagnetic data. Therefore, the estimates of the Late Triassic position of Indochina are confirmed to be reliable. The Indochina Block had collided to the southern margin of Eurasia by the Late Triassic and played an important role in the Mesozoic convergence of the Eastern Asia blocks.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a numerically exact method for calculating the internal and external gravitational potential of aspherical and heterogeneous planets. Our approach is based on the transformation of Poisson’s equation into an equivalent equation posed on a spherical computational domain. This new problem is solved in an efficient iterative manner based on a hybrid pseudospectral/spectral element discretization. The main advantage of our method is that its computational cost reflects the planet’s geometric and structural complexity, being in many situations only marginally more expensive than boundary perturbation theory. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the method’s efficacy and potential range of applications.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉In the case of long-range propagation of forward scattering, due to the accumulation of phase changes caused by the velocity perturbations, the validity of the Born approximation will be violated. In contrast, the phase-change accumulation can be handled by the Rytov approximation, which has been widely used for long-distance propagation with only forward scattering or small-angle scattering involved. However, the weak scattering assumption (i.e. small velocity perturbation) in the Rytov approximation limits its scope of application. To address this problem, we analyse the integral kernel of the Rytov transform using the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin-Jeffreys (WKBJ) approximation and we demonstrate that the integral kernel is a function of velocity perturbation and scattering angle. By applying a small scattering angle approximation, we show that the phase variation has a linear relationship with the slowness perturbation, no matter how strong the magnitude of perturbation is. Therefore, the new integral equation is then referred to as the generalized Rytov approximation (GRA) because it overcomes the weak scattering assumption of the Rytov approximation. To show the limitations of the Rytov approximation and the advantages of the proposed GRA method, first we design a two-layer model and we analytically calculate the errors introduced by the small scattering angle assumption using plane wave incidence. We show that the phase (traveltime) variations predicted by the GRA are always more accurate than the Rytov approximation. Particularly, the GRA produces accurate phase variations for the normal incident plane wave regardless of the magnitude of velocity perturbation. Numerical examples using Gaussian anomaly models demonstrate that the scattering angle has a crucial impact on the accuracy of the GRA. If the small scattering angle assumption holds, the GRA can produce an accurate phase approximation even if the velocity perturbation is very strong. On the contrary, both the first-order Rytov approximation and the GRA fail to get satisfying results when the scattering angle is large enough. The proposed GRA method has the potential to be used for traveltime modelling and inversion for large-scale strong perturbation media.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Estimating the location of geologic and tectonic features on a subducting plate is important for interpreting their spatial relationships with other observables including seismicity, seismic velocity and attenuation anomalies, and the location of ore deposits and arc volcanism in the over-riding plate. Here we present two methods for estimating the location of predictable features such as seamounts, ridges and fracture zones on the slab. One uses kinematic reconstructions of plate motions, and the other uses multidimensional scaling to flatten the slab onto the surface of the Earth. We demonstrate the methods using synthetic examples and also using the test case of fracture zones entering the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. The two methods produce results that are in good agreement with each other in both the synthetic and real examples. In the Lesser Antilles, the subducted fracture zones trend northwards of the surface projections. The two methods begin to diverge in regions where the multidimensional scaling method has its greatest likely error. Wider application of these methods may help to establish spatial correlations globally.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Microseismic monitoring is a primary tool for understanding and tracking the progress of mechanical processes occurring in active rock fracture systems. In geothermal or hydrocarbon fields or along seismogenic fault systems, the detection and location of microseismicity facilitates resolution of the fracture system geometry and the investigation of the interaction between fluids and rocks, in response of stress field perturbations. Seismic monitoring aims to detect locate and characterize seismic sources. The detection of weak signals is often achieved at the cost of increasing the number of false detections, related to transient signals generated by a range of noise sources, or related to instrumental problems, ambient conditions or human activity that often affect seismic records. A variety of fast and automated methods has been recently proposed to detect and locate microseismicity based on the coherent detection of signal anomalies, such as increase in amplitude or coherent polarization, at dense seismic networks. While these methods proved to be very powerful to detect weak events and to reduce the magnitude of completeness, a major problem remains to discriminate among weak seismic signals produced by microseismicity and false detections. In this work, the microseimic data recorded along the Irpinia fault zone (Southern Apennines, Italy) are analysed to detect weak, natural earthquakes using one of such automated, migration-based, method. We propose a new method for the automatic discrimination of real vs false detections, which is based on empirical data and information about the detectability (i.e. detection capability) of the seismic network. Our approach allows obtaining high performances in detecting earthquakes without requiring a visual inspection of the seismic signals and minimizing analyst intervention. The proposed methodology is automated, self-updating and can be tuned at different success rates.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉A multitaper estimator is proposed that accommodates time-series containing gaps without using any form of interpolation. In contrast with prior missing-data multitaper estimators that force standard Slepian sequences to be zero at gaps, the proposed missing-data Slepian sequences are defined only where data are present. The missing-data Slepian sequences are frequency independent, as are the eigenvalues that define the energy concentration within the resolution bandwidth, when the process bandwidth is $[ { - 1/2,\,\,\,1/2} )$ for unit sampling and the sampling scheme comprises integer multiples of unity. As a consequence, one need only compute the ensuing missing-data Slepian sequences for a given sampling scheme once, and then the spectrum at an arbitrary set of frequencies can be computed using them. It is also shown that the resulting missing-data multitaper estimator can incorporate all of the optimality features (i.e. adaptive-weighting, 〈span〉F〈/span〉-test and reshaping) of the standard multitaper estimator, and can be applied to bivariate or multivariate situations in similar ways. Performance of the missing-data multitaper estimator is illustrated using length of day, seafloor pressure and Nile River low stand time-series.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The analysis of surface wave dispersion curves (DCs) is widely used for near-surface 〈span〉S〈/span〉-wave velocity (VS) reconstruction. However, a comprehensive characterization of the near-surface requires also the estimation of 〈span〉P〈/span〉-wave velocity (VP). We focus on the estimation of both VS and VP models from surface waves using a direct data transform approach. We estimate a relationship between the wavelength of the fundamental mode of surface waves and the investigation depth and we use it to directly transform the DCs into VS and VP models in laterally varying sites. We apply the workflow to a real data set acquired on a known test site. The accuracy of such reconstruction is validated by a waveform comparison between field data and synthetic data obtained by performing elastic numerical simulations on the estimated VP and VS models. The uncertainties on the estimated velocity models are also computed.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Seismic signal recognition can serve as a powerful auxiliary tool for analysing and processing ever-larger volumes of seismic data. It can facilitate many subsequent procedures such as first-break picking, statics correction, denoising, signal detection, events tracking, structural interpretation, inversion and imaging. In this study, I propose an automatic technique of seismic signal recognition taking advantage of unsupervised machine learning. In the proposed technique, seismic signal recognition is considered as a problem of clustering data points. All the seismic sampling points in time domain are clustered into two clusters, that is, signal or non-signal. The hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to group these sampling points. Four attributes, that is, two short-term-average-to-long-term-average ratios, variance and envelope are investigated in the clustering process. In addition, to quantitatively evaluate the performance of seismic signal recognition properly, I propose two new statistical indicators, namely, the rate between the total energies of original and recognized signals (RTE), and the rate between the average energies of original and recognized signals (RAE). A large number of numerical experiments show that when the signal is slightly corrupted by noise, the proposed technique performs very well, with recognizing accuracy, precision and RTE of nearly 1 (i.e. 100 per cent), recall greater than 0.8 and RAE about 1–1.3. When the signal is moderately corrupted by noise, the proposed technique can hold recognizing accuracy about 0.9, recognizing precision nearly to 1, RTE about 0.9, recall around 0.6 and RAE about 1.5. Applications of the proposed technique to real microseismic data induced from hydraulic fracturing and reflection seismic data demonstrate its feasibility and encouraging prospect.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Measurements of seismo-acoustic events by collocated seismic and infrasound arrays allow for studying the two wavefields that were produced by the same event. However, some of the scientific and technical constraints on the building of the two technologies are different and may be contradicting. For the case of a new station, an optimal design that will satisfy the constraints of the two technologies can be found. However, in the case of upgrading an existing array by adding the complementing technology, the situation is different. The site location, the array configuration and physical constraints are fixed and may not be optimal for the complementing technology, which may lead to rejection of the upgrade. The International Monitoring System (IMS) for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes 37 seismic arrays and 51 infrasound arrays. Although the CTBT verification regime is fixed in the treaty, an upgrade of the existing arrays by adding more technologies is possible.The Mount Meron seismic array (MMAI), which is part of the IMS, is composed of 16 sites. Microbarometers were installed at five MMAI sites to form the Mount Meron infrasound array. Due to regulation and physical constraints, it was not possible to relocate the sites nor to install analogue noise reduction filters (i.e. a pipe array). In this study, it is demonstrated that the installation of the MMAI infrasound array is beneficial despite the non-optimal conditions. It is shown that the noise levels of the individual array sites are between the high and median global noise levels. However, we claim that the more indicative measures are the noise levels of the beams of interest, as demonstrated by analysing the microbaroms originated from the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, the ability to detect events relevant to the CTBT is demonstrated by analysing man-made events during 2011 from the Libya region.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Static and quasi-static Coulomb stress changes produced by large earthquakes can modify the probability of occurrence of subsequent events on neighbouring faults. This approach is based on physical (Coulomb stress changes) and statistical (probability calculations) models, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of data available in the study region. Here, we focus on the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ), a well-studied active normal fault system having abundant geological and palaeoseismological data. Palaeoseismological trench investigations of the WFZ indicate that at least 24 large, surface-faulting earthquakes have ruptured the fault's five central, 35–59-km long segments since ∼7 ka. Our goal is to determine if the stress changes due to the youngest palaeoevents have significantly modified the present-day probability of occurrence of large earthquakes on each of the segments. For each segment, we modelled the cumulative (coseismic + post-seismic) Coulomb stress changes (∆CFS〈sub〉cum〈/sub〉) due to earthquakes younger than the most recent event on the segment in question and applied the resulting values to the time-dependent probability calculations. Results from the Coulomb stress modelling suggest that the Brigham City, Salt Lake City, and Provo segments have accumulated ∆CFS〈sub〉cum〈/sub〉 larger than 10 bar, whereas the Weber segment has experienced a stress decrease of 5 bar, in the scenario of recent rupture of the Great Salt Lake fault to the west. Probability calculations predict high probability of occurrence for the Brigham City and Salt Lake City segments, due to their long elapsed times (〉1–2 ka) when compared to the Weber, Provo and Nephi segments (〈1 ka). The range of calculated coefficients of variation has a large influence on the final probabilities, mostly in the case of the Brigham City segment. Finally, when the Coulomb stress and the probability models are combined, our results indicate that the ∆CFS〈sub〉cum〈/sub〉 resulting from earthquakes post-dating the youngest events on each of the five segments substantially affects the probability calculations for three of the segments: Brigham City, Salt Lake City and Provo. The probability of occurrence of a large earthquake in the next 50 yr on these three segments may, therefore, be underestimated if a time-independent approach, or a time-dependent approach that does not consider ∆CFS, is adopted.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Quantifying landslide activity in remote regions is difficult because of the numerous complications that prevent direct landslide observations. However, building exhaustive landslide catalogues is critical to document and assess the impacts of climate change on landslide activity such as increasing precipitation, glacial retreat and permafrost thawing, which are thought to be strong drivers of the destabilization of large parts of the high-latitude/altitude regions of the Earth. In this study, we take advantage of the capability offered by seismological observations to continuously and remotely record landslide occurrences at regional scales. We developed a new automated machine learning processing chain, based on the Random Forest classifier, able to automatically detect and identify landslide seismic signals in continuous seismic records. We processed two decades of continuous seismological observations acquired by the Alaskan seismic networks. This allowed detection of 5087 potential landslides over a period of 22 yr (1995–2017). We observe an increase in the number of landslides for the period and discuss the possible causes.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉To describe the energy transport in the seismic coda, we introduce a system of radiative transfer equations for coupled surface and body waves in a scalar approximation. Our model is based on the Helmholtz equation in a half-space geometry with mixed boundary conditions. In this model, Green’s function can be represented as a sum of body waves and surface waves, which mimics the situation on Earth. In a first step, we study the single-scattering problem for point-like objects in the Born approximation. Using the assumption that the phase of body waves is randomized by surface reflection or by interaction with the scatterers, we show that it becomes possible to define, in the usual manner, the cross-sections for surface-to-body and body-to-surface scattering. Adopting the independent scattering approximation, we then define the scattering mean free paths of body and surface waves including the coupling between the two types of waves. Using a phenomenological approach, we then derive a set of coupled transport equations satisfied by the specific energy density of surface and body waves in a medium containing a homogeneous distribution of point scatterers. In our model, the scattering mean free path of body waves is depth dependent as a consequence of the body-to-surface coupling. We demonstrate that an equipartition between surface and body waves is established at long lapse-time, with a ratio which is predicted by usual mode counting arguments. We derive a diffusion approximation from the set of transport equations and show that the diffusivity is both anisotropic and depth dependent. The physical origin of the two properties is discussed. Finally, we present Monte Carlo solutions of the transport equations which illustrate the convergence towards equipartition at long lapse-time as well as the importance of the coupling between surface and body waves in the generation of coda waves.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉In the profile analysis of faults, the distribution of GNSS sites directly affects the accuracy of the results of slip rate and locking depth. This paper discusses strategies for designing the layout of GNSS stations perpendicular to strike-slip faults in terms of site spacing and the Minimum Effective Distance, which is 20 times the locking depth of the fault. Three layout models are proposed considering the complexity of strike-slip faults: (1) Equal spacing layout, in which many stations are deployed in the far field, only a few are deployed in the near field. (2) Equal deformation layout, in which stations are densely arranged in the near field and sparsely arranged in the far field according to the frequency of deformation curve. (3) Equal slope spacing layout, in which stations are arranged according to the nonlinear degree of the deformation curve, with dense distribution in regions with high nonlinearity and sparse distribution in approximately linear regions. The three models were used to redistribute the sites in the Qiaojia to Dongchuan segment of the Xiaojiang fault profile, and their performances were compared with that of the current sites distribution of the segment. The results showed that model 1 is optimal for fitting the accuracy of slip rate and model 3 is optimal for the accuracy of locking depth. Overall, model 3 appears to be the best choice, considering that the accuracy of the locking depth is more difficult to control. One of the main purposes of deployment is to identify the seismogenic depth of the fault. With the locking depth of the fault gradually approaching the depth of the seismogenic layer during an interseismic period, the accuracy of observations of sites deployed at a preset value of historical seismogenic depth of the fault would improve.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉HY-2A is China's first satellite altimeter mission, launched in Aug. 2011. Its geodetic mission (GM) started from 2016 March 30 till present, collecting sea surface heights for about five 168-d cycles. To test how the HY-2A altimeter performs in marine gravity derivation, we use the least-squares collocation method to determine marine gravity anomalies on 1′ × 1′ grids around the South China Sea (covering 0°–30°N, 105°E–125°E) from the HY-2A/GM-measured geoid gradients. We assess the qualities of the HY-2A/GM-derived gravity over different depths and areas using the bias and tilt-adjusted ship-borne gravity anomalies from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) of P. R. China. The RMS difference between the HY-2A/GM-derived and the NCEI ship-borne gravity is 5.91 mGal, and is 5.33 mGal when replacing the HY-2A value from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) V23.1 value. The RMS difference between the HY-2A/GM-derived and the MNR ship-borne gravity is 2.90 mGal, and is 2.76 mGal when replacing the HY-2A value from the SIO V23.1 value. The RMS difference between the HY-2A and SIO V23.1 value is 3.57 mGal in open sea areas at least 20 km far away from the coast. In general, the difference between the HY-2A/GM-derived gravity and ship-borne gravity decreases with decreasing gravity field roughness and increasing depth. HY-2A results in the lowest gravity accuracy in areas with islands or reefs. Our assessment result suggests that HY-2A can compete with other Ku-band altimeter missions in marine gravity derivation.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding (VDSS) has emerged as a novel method to image the crust-mantle-boundary (CMB) and potentially other lithospheric boundaries. In Part 1 (Liu et al., 2018), we showed that the arrival time and waveform of post-critical 〈span〉SsPmp〈/span〉, the post-critical reflection phase at the CMB used in VDSS, is sensitive to several different attributes of the crust and upper mantle. Here, we synthesize our methodology of deriving Moho depth, average crustal 〈span〉Vp〈/span〉 and uppermost-mantle 〈span〉Vp〈/span〉 from single-station observations of post-critical 〈span〉SsPmp〈/span〉 under a 1D assumption. We first verify our method with synthetics and then substantiate it with a case study using the Yellowknife and POLARIS arrays in the Slave Craton, Canada. We show good agreement of crustal and upper-mantle properties derived with VDSS with those given by previous active-source experiments and our own P receiver functions (PRF) in our study area. Finally, we propose a PRF-VDSS joint analysis method to constrain average crustal 〈span〉Vp〈/span〉/〈span〉Vs〈/span〉 ratio and composition. Our PRF-VDSS joint analysis shows that the southwest Slave Craton has an intermediate crustal composition, most consistent with a Mesoarchean age.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The variation of temperature in the crust is difficult to quantify due to the sparsity of surface heat flow observations and lack of measurements on the thermal properties of rocks at depth. We examine the degree to which the thermal structure of the crust can be constrained from Curie depth and surface heat flow data in Southeastern Australia. We cast the inverse problem of heat conduction within a Bayesian framework and derive its adjoint so we can efficiently find the optimal model that best reproduces the data and prior information on the thermal properties of the crust. Efficiency gains obtained from the adjoint method facilitates a detailed exploration of thermal structure in SE Australia, where we predict high temperatures within Precambrian rocks of 650 〈sup〉○〈/sup〉C due to relatively high rates of heat production (0.9–1.4 μW m〈sup〉−3〈/sup〉). In contrast, temperatures within dominantly Phanerozoic crust reach only 520 〈sup〉○〈/sup〉C at the Moho due to the low rates of heat production in Cambrian mafic volcanics. A combination of Curie depth and heat flow data are required to constrain the uncertainty of lower crustal temperatures to ± 73 〈sup〉○〈/sup〉C. We also show that parts of the crust are unconstrained if either dataset is omitted from the inversion.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The mantle transition zone is the region between the globally observed major seismic velocity discontinuities around depths of 410 and 660 km and is important for determining the style of convection and mixing between the upper and the lower mantle. In this study, P-to-S converted waves, or receiver functions, are used to study these discontinuities beneath the Alaskan subduction zone, where the Pacific plate subducts underneath the North American plate. Previous tomographic models do not agree on the depth extent of the subducting slab, therefore improved imaging of the Earth structure underneath Alaska is required. We use 27,800 high quality radial receiver functions to make common conversion point stacks. Upper mantle velocity anomalies are accounted for by two recently published regional tomographic S-wave velocity models. Using these two tomographic models, we show that the discontinuity depths within our CCP stacks are highly dependent on the choice of velocity model, between which velocity anomaly magnitudes vary greatly. We design a quantitative test to show whether the anomalies in the velocity models are too strong or too weak, leading to over- or under-corrected discontinuity depths. We also show how this test can be used to rescale the 3D velocity corrections in order to improve the discontinuity topography maps. After applying the appropriate corrections, we find a localised thicker mantle transition zone and an uplifted 410 discontinuity, which show that the slab has clearly penetrated into the mantle transition zone. Little topography is seen on the 660 discontinuity, indicating that the slab has probably not reached the lower mantle. In the southwest, P410s arrivals have very small amplitudes or no significant arrival at all. This could be caused by water or basalt in the subducting slab, reducing the strength at the 410, or by topography on the 410 discontinuity, preventing coherent stacking. In the southeast of Alaska, a thinner mantle transition zone is observed. This area corresponds to the location of a slab window, and thinning of the mantle transition zone may be caused by hot mantle upwellings.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We present an iterative classification scheme using inter-event cross-correlation to update an existing earthquake catalogue with similar events from a list of automatic seismic event detections. The algorithm automatically produces catalogue quality events, with improved hypocentres and reliable P and S arrival time information. Detected events are classified into four event categories with the purpose of using the top category, with the highest assessed event quality and highest true-to-false ratio, directly for local earthquake tomography without additional manual analysis. The remaining categories have varying proportions of lower quality events, quality being defined primarily by the number of observed phase onsets, and can be viewed as different priority groups for manual inspection to reduce the time spent by a seismic analyst. A list of 3348 event detections from the geothermally active volcanic region around Hengill, southwest Iceland, produced by our migration and stack detector (Wagner et al. 2017), was processed using a reference catalogue of 1108 manually picked events from the same area. P and S phase onset times were automatically determined for the detected events using correlation time lags with respect to manually picked phase arrivals from different multiple reference events at the same station. A significant improvement of the initial hypocentre estimates was achieved after re-locating the detected events using the computed phase onset times. The differential time dataset resulting from the correlation was successfully used for a double-difference re-location of the final updated catalogue. The routine can potentially be implemented in real-time seismic monitoring environments in combination with a variety of seismic event/phase detectors.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉To describe the energy transport in the seismic coda, we introduce a system of radiative transfer equations for coupled surface and body waves in a scalar approximation. Our model is based on the Helmholtz equation in a half-space geometry with mixed boundary conditions. In this model, Green’s function can be represented as a sum of body waves and surface waves, which mimics the situation on Earth. In a first step, we study the single-scattering problem for point-like objects in the Born approximation. Using the assumption that the phase of body waves is randomized by surface reflection or by interaction with the scatterers, we show that it becomes possible to define, in the usual manner, the cross-sections for surface-to-body and body-to-surface scattering. Adopting the independent scattering approximation, we then define the scattering mean free paths of body and surface waves including the coupling between the two types of waves. Using a phenomenological approach, we then derive a set of coupled transport equations satisfied by the specific energy density of surface and body waves in a medium containing a homogeneous distribution of point scatterers. In our model, the scattering mean free path of body waves is depth dependent as a consequence of the body-to-surface coupling. We demonstrate that an equipartition between surface and body waves is established at long lapse-time, with a ratio which is predicted by usual mode counting arguments. We derive a diffusion approximation from the set of transport equations and show that the diffusivity is both anisotropic and depth dependent. The physical origin of the two properties is discussed. Finally, we present Monte-Carlo solutions of the transport equations which illustrate the convergence towards equipartition at long lapse-time as well as the importance of the coupling between surface and body waves in the generation of coda waves.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉In planetary fluid cores, the density depends on temperature and chemical composition, which diffuse at very different rates. This leads to various instabilities, bearing the name of double-diffusive convection. We investigate rotating double-diffusive convection (RDDC) in fluid spheres. We use the Boussinesq approximation with homogeneous internal thermal and compositional source terms. We focus on the finger regime, in which the thermal gradient is stabilising whereas the compositional one is destabilising. First, we perform a global linear stability analysis in spheres. The critical Rayleigh numbers drastically drop for stably stratified fluids, yielding large-scale convective motions where local analyses predict stability. We evidence the inviscid nature of this large-scale double-diffusive instability, enabling the determination of the marginal stability curve at realistic planetary regimes. In particular, we show that in stably stratified spheres, the Rayleigh numbers 〈span〉Ra〈/span〉 at the onset evolve like 〈span〉Ra〈/span〉 ∼ 〈span〉Ek〈/span〉〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉, where 〈span〉Ek〈/span〉 is the Ekman number. This differs from rotating convection in unstably stratified spheres, for which 〈span〉Ra〈/span〉 ∼ 〈span〉Ek〈/span〉〈sup〉−4/3〈/sup〉. The domain of existence of inviscid convection thus increases as 〈span〉Ek〈/span〉〈sup〉−1/3〈/sup〉. Second, we perform nonlinear simulations. We find a transition between two regimes of RDDC, controlled by the strength of the stratification. Furthermore, far from the RDDC onset, we find a dominating equatorially anti-symmetric, large-scale zonal flow slightly above the associated linear onset. Unexpectedly, a purely linear mechanism can explain this phenomenon, even far from the instability onset, yielding a symmetry breaking of the nonlinear flow at saturation. For even stronger stable stratification, the flow becomes mainly equatorially-symmetric and intense zonal jets develop. Finally, we apply our results to the early Earth core. Double diffusion can reduce the critical Rayleigh number by four decades for realistic core conditions. We suggest that the early Earth core was prone to turbulent RDDC, with large-scale zonal flows.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Time-domain processing of seismic reflection data has always been an important engine that is routinely utilized to produce seismic images and to expeditiously construct subsurface models. The conventional procedure involves analyzing parameters related to the derivatives of reflection traveltime with respect to offset including normal moveout (NMO) velocities (second-order derivatives) and quartic coefficients (fourth-order derivatives). In this study, we propose to go beyond the typical assumption of 1D laterally homogeneous medium when relating those ‘processing’ parameters to the subsurface medium parameters and take into account the additional influences from lateral heterogeneity including curved interfaces and smoothly variable velocities. We fill in the theoretical gap from previous studies and develop a general framework for such connection in layered anisotropic media. We show that in general, the influences of lateral heterogeneity get accumulated from all layers via a recursive relationship according to the Fermat’s principle and can be approximately quantified in terms of the lateral derivatives of the layer interface surfaces and velocities. Based on the same general principle, we show that our approach can also be used to study the lateral heterogeneity effects on diffraction traveltime and its second-order derivative related to time-migration velocity. In this paper, we explicitly specify expressions for NMO and time-migration velocities with the influences from both types of heterogeneity suitable for 2D datasets and also discuss possible extensions of the proposed theory to 3D datasets and to parameters related to higher-order traveltime derivatives. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that the proposed theory can lead to more accurate reflection and diffraction traveltime predictions in comparison with those obtained based on the 1D assumption. Both the proposed theoretical framework and its numerical testing for forward traveltime computation presented in this study aid in understanding the effects from lateral heterogeneity on time-processing parameters and also serve as an important basis for designing an efficient technique to separate those influences in important processes such as Dix inversion for a more accurate subsurface model in the future.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉H-κ stacking is used routinely to infer crustal thickness and bulk-crustal V〈sub〉〈span〉P〈/span〉〈/sub〉/V〈sub〉〈span〉S〈/span〉〈/sub〉 ratio from teleseismic receiver functions. The method assumes that the largest amplitude P-to-S conversions beneath the seismograph station are generated at the Moho. This is reasonable where the crust is simple and the Moho marks a relatively abrupt transition from crust to mantle, but not if the crust-mantle transition is gradational and/or complex intra-crustal structure exists. We demonstrate via synthetic seismogram analysis that H-κ results can be strongly dependent on the choice of stacking parameters (the relative weights assigned to the Moho P-to-S conversion and its subsequent reverberations, the choice of linear or phase-weighted stacking, input crustal P-wave velocity) and associated data parameters (receiver function frequency content and the sample of receiver functions analyzed). To address this parameter sensitivity issue, we develop an H-κ approach in which cluster analysis selects a final solution from 1000 individual H-κ results, each calculated using randomly-selected receiver functions, and H-κ input parameters. Ten quality control criteria that variously assess the final numerical result, the receiver function dataset, and the extent to which the results are tightly clustered, are used to assess the reliability of H-κ stacking at a station. Analysis of synthetic datasets indicates H-κ works reliably when the Moho is sharp and intra-crustal structure is lacking but is less successful when the Moho is gradational. Limiting the frequency content of receiver functions can improve the H-κ solutions in such settings, provided intra-crustal structure is simple. In cratonic Canada, India and Australia, H-κ solutions generally cluster tightly, indicative of simple crust and a sharp Moho. In contrast, on the Ethiopian plateau, where Paleogene flood-basalts overlie marine sediments, H-κ results are unstable and erroneous. For stations that lie on thinner flood-basalt outcrops, and/or in regions where Blue Nile river incision has eroded through to the sediments below, limiting the receiver function frequency content to longer periods improves the H-κ solution and reveals a 6–10 km gradational Moho, readily interpreted as a lower-crustal intrusion layer at the base of a mafic (V〈sub〉〈span〉P〈/span〉〈/sub〉/V〈sub〉〈span〉S〈/span〉〈/sub〉=1.77–1.87) crust. Moving off the flood-basalt province, H-κ results are reliable and the crust is thinner and more felsic (V〈sub〉〈span〉P〈/span〉〈/sub〉/V〈sub〉〈span〉S〈/span〉〈/sub〉=1.70–1.77), indicating the lower crustal intrusion layer is confined to the region covered by flood-basaltic volcanism. Analysis of data from other tectonically-complex settings (e.g., Japan, Cyprus) shows H-κ stacking results should be treated cautiously. Only in regions of relatively simple crust can H-κ stacking analysis be considered truly reliable.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The 280-km-long San Cristobal Trough (SCT), created by the tearing of the Australia plate as it subducts under the Pacific plate near the Solomon and Vanuatu subduction zones, has hosted strike-slip earthquake sequences in 1993 and 2015. Both sequences, which likely represent a complete seismic cycle, began along the oldest section of the SCT—the portion farthest from the tear that has experienced the most cumulative displacement—and migrated to the younger sections closer to the tear. The SCT's abundant seismicity allows us to study transform boundary development—a process rarely observed along a single fault system—through observations of earthquake rupture properties. Using the spectral ratio method based on empirical Green's functions (EGFs), we calculate the corner frequencies of three M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉 ∼7 2015 earthquakes and co-located smaller earthquakes. We utilize two different spectral ratio stacking methods and fit both Brune and Boatwright models to the stacked spectral ratios. Regardless of stacking methods and spectral models, we find that the corner frequencies of the 2015 M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉 ∼7 earthquakes decrease slightly with distance from the tear. Assuming a constant rupture velocity and an omega-square spectral model, this corner frequency decrease may be due to an increase in rupture length with distance from the tear. The spectrum of the 2015 earthquake farthest from the tear also deviates from the omega-square model, which may indicate rupture complexity. Stress drop estimates from the corner frequencies of the 2015 M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉 ∼7 earthquakes range between 1 and 7 MPa, whereas stress drop estimates of their EGFs range from ∼0.05 to 10 MPa with most values between 0.1 to 1 MPa. Independent evidence from a second moments analysis of the 2015 earthquake sequence also indicates a possible increase in rupture length with distance from the tear, confirming the results from the spectral ratio analysis. We also observe an increase in normalized centroid time-delay values, a first-order proxy for rupture behavior, with distance from the tear for the 2015 sequence. A similar trend for the 1993 sequence suggests that earthquake rupture varies systematically along the SCT. Since distance from the tear corresponds to cumulative fault displacement, these along-strike rupture variations may be due to a displacement-driven fault maturation process.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Thickness of cover over crystalline basement is an important consideration for mineral exploration in covered regions. It can be estimated from a variety of geophysical data types using a variety of inference methods. A robust method for combining such estimates to map the cover-basement interface over a region of interest is needed. Due to the large uncertainties involved, these need to be a probabilistic maps. Predominantly, interpolation methods are used for this purpose, but these are built on simplifying assumptions about the inputs which are often inappropriate. Bayesian estimate fusion is an alternative capable of addressing that issue by enabling more extensive use of domain knowledge about all inputs. This study is intended as a first step towards making Bayesian estimate fusion a practical tool for cover thickness uncertainty mapping. The main contribution is to identify the types of data assumptions that are important for this problem, to demonstrate their importance using synthetic tests, and to design a method that enables their use without introducing excessive tedium. We argue that interpolation methods like kriging often cannot achieve this goal and demonstrate that Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can. This paper focuses on development of statistical methodology and presents synthetic data tests designed to reflect realistic exploration scenarios on an abstract level. Intended application is for the early stages of exploration where some geophysical data is available while drill hole coverage is poor.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The uneven distribution of earthquakes and stations in seismic tomography leads to slower convergence of nonlinear inversions and spatial bias in inversion results. Including dense regional arrays, such as USArray or Hi-Net, in global tomography causes severe convergence and spatial bias problems, against which conventional preconditioning schemes are ineffective. To save computational cost and reduce model bias, we propose a new strategy based on a geographical weighting of sources and receivers. Unlike approaches based on ray density or Voronoi tessellation, this method scales to large full-waveform inversion problems and avoids instabilities at the edges of dense receiver or source clusters. We validate our strategy using a 2D global waveform inversion test and show that the new weighting scheme leads to a nearly two-fold reduction in model error and much faster convergence relative to a conventionally-preconditioned inversion. We implement this geographical weighting strategy for global adjoint tomography.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉S-wave spectral amplitudes from 312 crustal earthquakes recorded at the Iranian National Broadband Seismic Network in the Alborz region between 2005 and 2017 are analysed in order to evaluate earthquake source parameters, path attenuation and site amplification functions using the nonparametric generalized inversion technique (GIT). We exploit a total number of 1117 seismograms with M〈sub〉L〈/sub〉 3–5.6 in the frequency range 0.3–20 Hz. The evaluated nonparametric attenuation functions decay uniformly with distance for the entire frequency range and the estimated S-wave quality factor shows low Q values with relatively strong frequency dependence. We assume the omega-square source model to retrieve earthquake source parameters from the inverted source spectra. The obtained stress drops range from 0.02 to 16 MPa with a mean value of 1.1 MPa. Stress drop and radiated energy show fairly self-similar scaling with seismic moment over the available magnitude range; however, the magnitude range of this study is too narrow to draw a definite conclusion on source scaling characteristics. The obtained moment magnitude M〈sub〉W〈/sub〉 and the local magnitude M〈sub〉L〈/sub〉 are linearly correlated and approximately equivalent in the range of M〈sub〉W〈/sub〉 3–4. For larger events, M〈sub〉W〈/sub〉 generally underestimates M〈sub〉L〈/sub〉 by about 0.1–0.5 magnitude units. The estimated site amplification functions for horizontal component (GIT H) are nearly flat with no obvious predominant frequency peaks for most stations, as expected for the sites of permanent broadband seismic stations located on rock, though a few stations show amplification peaks from 1 to 8 Hz, with a maximum amplification of about a factor of 7 with respect to the reference site. The evaluated site responses for the vertical components present remarkable amplification or deamplification, leading to differences of the H/V amplitude levels in comparison with the GIT H amplification curves. The results of this study provide a valuable basis for predicting appropriate ground motions in a context of seismic hazard assessment.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We introduce a new relative moment tensor (MT) inversion method for clusters of nearby earthquakes. The method extends previous work by introducing constraints from S-waves that do not require modal decomposition and by employing principal component analysis to produce robust estimates of excitation. At each receiver, P- and S-waves from each event are independently aligned and decomposed into principal components. P-wave constraints on MTs are obtained from a ratio of coefficients corresponding to the first principal component, equivalent to a relative amplitude. For S-waves we produce constraints on MTs involving three events, where one event is described as a linear combination of the other two, and coefficients are derived from the first two principal components. Non-linear optimization is applied to efficiently find best-fit tensile-earthquake and double-couple solutions for relative MT systems. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the P and S constraints both individually and in combination. We then apply the relative MT inversion to a set of 16 earthquakes from southern Alaska, at ∼125 km depth within the subducted Yakutat terrane. Most events are compatible with a stress tensor dominated by down-dip tension, however, we observe several pairs of earthquakes with nearly antiparallel slip implying that the stress regime is heterogeneous and/or faults are extremely weak. The location of these events near the abrupt down-dip termination of seismicity and the low-velocity zone suggest that they are caused by weakening via grain-size and volume reduction associated with eclogitization of the lower-crustal gabbro layer.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution, above the completeness magnitude 〈span〉mc〈/span〉, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. On the other hand, incomplete data does not follow any specific law, since the shape of the frequency-magnitude distribution below max(〈span〉mc〈/span〉) is function of 〈span〉mc〈/span〉 heterogeneities that depend on the seismic network spatiotemporal configuration. This paper attempts to solve this problem by presenting an asymmetric Laplace mixture model, defined as the weighted sum of Laplace (or double exponential) distribution components of constant 〈span〉mc〈/span〉, where the inverse scale parameter of the exponential function is the detection parameter κ below 〈span〉mc〈/span〉, and the Gutenberg-Richter β-value above 〈span〉mc〈/span〉. Using a variant of the expectation maximization algorithm, the mixture model confirms the ontology proposed by Mignan [2012, 〈a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009347"〉https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009347〈/a〉], which states that the shape of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution shifts from angular (in log-linear space) in a homogeneous space-time volume of constant 〈span〉mc〈/span〉 to rounded in a heterogeneous volume corresponding to the union of smaller homogeneous volumes. The performance of the proposed mixture model is analysed, with encouraging results obtained in simulations and in 8 real earthquake catalogues that represent different seismic network spatial configurations. We find that 〈span〉k〈/span〉 = κ/ln(10) ≈ 3 in most earthquake catalogues (compared to 〈span〉b〈/span〉 = β/ln(10) ≈ 1), suggesting a common detection capability of different seismic networks. Although simpler algorithms may be preferred on pragmatic grounds to estimate 〈span〉mc〈/span〉 and the 〈span〉b〈/span〉-value, other methods so far fail to model the angular distributions observed in homogeneous space-time volumes. Mixture modelling is a promising strategy to model the full earthquake magnitude range, hence potentially increasing seismicity data availability tenfold, since c. 90 per cent of earthquake catalogue events are below max(〈span〉mc〈/span〉).〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Full waveform inversion (FWI) is a nonlinear waveform matching procedure, which suffers from cycle skipping when the initial model is not kinematically-accurate enough. To mitigate cycle skipping, wavefield reconstruction inversion (WRI) extends the inversion search space by computing wavefields with a relaxation of the wave equation in order to fit the data from the first iteration. Then, the subsurface parameters are updated by minimizing the source residuals the relaxation generated. Capitalizing on the wave-equation bilinearity, performing wavefield reconstruction and parameter estimation in alternating mode decomposes WRI into two linear subproblems, which can solved efficiently with the alternating-direction method of multiplier (ADMM), leading to the so-called iteratively refined wavefield reconstruction inversion (IR-WRI). Moreover, ADMM provides a suitable framework to implement bound constraints and different types of regularizations and their mixture in IR-WRI. Here, IR-WRI is extended to multiparameter reconstruction for VTI acoustic media. To achieve this goal, we first propose different forms of bilinear VTI acoustic wave equation. We develop more specifically IR-WRI for the one that relies on a parametrisation involving vertical wavespeed and Thomsen’s parameters δ and ε. With a toy numerical example, we first show that the radiation patterns of the virtual sources generate similar wavenumber filtering and parameter cross-talks in classical FWI and IR-WRI. Bound constraints and TV regularization in IR-WRI fully remove these undesired effects for an idealized piecewise constant target. We show with a more realistic long-offset case study representative of the North Sea that anisotropic IR-WRI successfully reconstruct the vertical wavespeed starting from a laterally homogeneous model and update the long-wavelengths of the starting ε model, while a smooth δ model is used as a passive background model. VTI acoustic IR-WRI can be alternatively performed with subsurface parametrisations involving stiffness or compliance coefficients or normal moveout velocities and η parameter (or horizontal velocity).〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Seismic signal recognition can serve as a powerful auxiliary tool for analyzing and processing ever-larger volumes of seismic data. It can facilitate many subsequent procedures such as first-break picking, statics correction, denoising, signal detection, events tracking, structural interpretation, inversion and imaging. In this study, I propose an automatic technique of seismic signal recognition taking advantage of unsupervised machine learning (ML). In the proposed technique, seismic signal recognition is considered as a problem of clustering data points. All the seismic sampling points in time domain are clustered into two clusters, i.e. signal or non-signal. The hierarchical clustering (HC) algorithm is used to group these sampling points. Four attributes, i.e. two short-term-average-to-long-term-average ratios (STA/LTAs), variance and envelope are investigated in the clustering process. In addition, to quantitatively evaluate the performance of seismic signal recognition properly, I propose two new statistical indicators, namely the rate between the total energies of original and recognized signals (RTE), and the rate between the average energies of original and recognized signals (RAE). A large number of numerical experiments show that, when the signal is slightly corrupted by noise, the proposed technique performs very well, with recognizing accuracy, precision and RTE of nearly 1 (i.e., 100%), recall greater than 0.8 and RAE about 1-1.3. When the signal is moderately corrupted by noise, the proposed technique can hold recognizing accuracy about 0.9, recognizing precision nearly to 1, RTE about 0.9, recall around 0.6 and RAE about 1.5. Applications of the proposed technique to real micro-seismic data induced from hydraulic fracturing and reflection seismic data demonstrate its feasibility and encouraging prospect.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Mantle plumes may play a major role in the transport of heat and mass through the Earth, but establishing their existence and structure using seismology has proven challenging and controversial. Previous studies have mainly focused on imaging plumes using waveform modelling and inversion (i.e. tomography). In this study we investigate the potential visibility of mantle plumes using array methods, and in particular whether we can detect seismic scattering from the plumes. By combining geodynamic modelling with mineral physics data we compute ‘seismic’ plumes whose shape and structure correspond to dynamically-plausible thermochemical plumes. We use these seismic models to perform a full-waveform simulation, sending seismic waves through the plumes, in order to generate synthetic seismograms. Using velocity spectral analysis and slowness-backazimuth plots, we are unable to detect scattering. However at longer dominant periods (25 seconds) we see several arrivals from outside the plane of the great circle path, that are consistent with an apparent bending of the wavefront around the plume conduit. At shorter periods (15 seconds), these arrivals are less obvious and less strong, consistent with the expected changes in the waves' behaviour at higher frequencies. We also detect reflections off the iron-rich chemical pile which serves as the plume source in the D'' region, indicating that D'' reflections may not always be due to a phase transformation. We suggest that slowness-backazimuth analysis may be a useful tool to locate mantle plumes in real array datasets. However, it is important to analyse the data at different dominant periods since, depending on the width of the plume, there is probably an optimum frequency band at which the plume is most visible. Our results also show the importance of studying the incoming energy in all directions, so that any apparently out-of-plane arrivals can be correctly interpreted.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We test the feasibility of GPS-based rapid centroid moment tensor (GPS CMT) methods for Taiwan, one of the most earthquake prone areas in the world. In recent years Taiwan has become a leading developer of seismometer-based earthquake early warning systems which have successfully been applied to several large events. The rapid determination of earthquake magnitude and focal mechanism, important for a number of rapid response applications, including tsunami warning, is still challenging because of the limitations of near-field inertial recordings. This instrumental issue can be solved by an entirely different observation system: a GPS network. Taiwan is well-posed to take advantage of GPS because in the last decade it has developed a very dense network. Thus, in this research, we explore the suitability of the GPS CMT inversion for Taiwan. We retrospectively investigate six moderate to large (M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉6.0∼7.0) earthquakes and propose a resolution test for our model, we find that the minimum resolvable earthquake magnitude of this system is ∼M〈sub〉w〈/sub〉5.5 (at 5 km depth). Our tests also suggest that the finite fault complexity, often challenging for the near-field methodology, can be ignored under such good station coverage and thus, can provide a fast and robust solution for large earthquake directly from the near-field. Our findings help to understand and quantify how the proposed methodology could be implemented in real-time and what its contributions could be to the overall earthquake monitoring system.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The ice cap covering Antarctica has long limited our understanding of the continental-scale crustal model due to its inaccessibility and the resulting logistical difficulties when executing geophysical field work, such as seismograph deployment. Resolving a high spatial resolution crustal model for Antarctica where seismographs are sparsely distributed, stimulates scientific interest in this relatively less studied continent. In this study, we utilize satellite gravity observations from the global gravity model EIGEN-6C4 to create an alternative crustal thickness model of Antarctica. The gravity data was corrected for sediments, topography and ice cover. Furthermore, we considered the gravity effect due to vertical deformation of the lithosphere caused by ice load besides the earth's curvature in the modeling. We inverted the corrected gravity data using the regularized Bott's inversion method in spherical approximation and constrained the results by seismic observations. This crustal thickness model shows a thicker average crust in East Antarctica and a thinner one in West Antarctica. The thickest crust is in the Gamburtsev sub-glacial mountains with a Moho depth of over 40 km. The thicker crust is particularly evident along the Transantarctic Mountains and the Dronning Maud lands. Comparisons with existing models show a good correlation in gravity-constrained areas. Differences appear in the sedimentary basins and crust with thickness closer to seismic point observations. Overall, our crustal model is relatively improved than the existing gravity derived models.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Flexure and fracturing of the seafloor on the outer trench wall of subduction zones reflects bending of the lithosphere beyond its elastic limit. To investigate these inelastic processes, we have developed a full non-linear inversion approach for estimating the bending moment, curvature, and outer trench wall fracturing using shipboard bathymetry and satellite altimetry derived gravity data as constraints. Bending moments and downward forces are imposed along curved trench axes and an iterative method is used to calculate the non-linear response for 26 sites in the circum-Pacific region having seafloor age ranging from 15 to 148 Ma. We use standard thermal and yield strength envelope models to develop the non-linear moment versus curvature relationship. Two coefficients of friction of 0.6 and 0.3 are considered and we find the lower value provides a better overall fit to the data. The main result is that the lithosphere is nearly moment saturated at the trench axis. The effective elastic thickness of the plate on the outer trench slope is at least three times smaller than the elastic thickness of the plate before bending at the outer rise, in agreement with previous studies. The average seafloor depth of the unbent plate in these 26 sites matches the Parsons & Sclater (1977) depth versus age model beyond 120 Ma. We also use the model to predict the offsets of normal faults on the outer trench walls and compare this with the horst and graben structures observed by multibeam surveys. The model with the lower coefficient of friction fits the fault offset data close to the trench axis. However, the model predicts significant fracturing of the lithosphere between 75 and 150 kilometres away from the trench axis where no fracturing is observed. To reconcile these observations, we impose a thermoelastic pre-stress in the lithosphere (Wessel 1992) prior to subduction. This pre-stress delays the onset of fracturing in better agreement with the data.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We applied a non-linear teleseismic tomography algorithm to explore the 3D structure of the upper mantle beneath the Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone in western Iran. An unprecedented dataset consisting of 32738 teleseismic 〈span〉P〈/span〉-wave relative arrival time residuals from 129 permanent and temporary seismic stations was inverted for seismic imaging. The seismic images suggest a thick high-velocity lithospheric mantle beneath the Zagros. Other high-velocity domain observed below ∼300 km depth, which is not connected to the Zagros lithosphere, is interpreted as a slab segment in the upper mantle beneath the collision zone. The low-velocity anomalies beneath Central Iran and Alborz, consistent with a weak upper mantle, may be a result of upwelling asthenosphere and partial melting of the subducted lithosphere.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Non-uniqueness in the geophysical inverse problem is well recognized and so too is the ability to obtain solutions with different character by altering the form of the regularization function. Of particular note is the use of ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norms with 〈span〉p〈/span〉 ∈ [0, 2] which gives rise to sparse or smooth models. Most algorithms are designed to implement a single ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norm for the entire model domain. This is not adequate when the fundamental character of the model changes throughout the volume of interest. In such cases we require a generalized regularization function where each sub-volume of the model domain has penalties on smallness and roughness and its own suite of ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉 parameters. Solving the inverse problem using mixed ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norms in the regularization (especially for 〈span〉p〈/span〉 〈 1) is computationally challenging. We use the Lawson formulation for the ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norm and solve the optimization problem with Iterative Reweighted Least Squares. The algorithm has two stages; we first solve the 〈span〉l〈/span〉〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-norm problem and then we switch to the desired suite of ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norms; there is one value of 〈span〉p〈/span〉 for each term in the objective function. To handle the large changes in numerical values of the regularization function when 〈span〉p〈/span〉-values are changed, and to ensure that each component of the regularization is contributing to the final solution, we successively rescale the gradients in our Gauss-Newton solution. An indicator function allows us to evaluate our success in finding a solution in which components of the objective function have been equally influential. We use our algorithm to generate an ensemble of solutions with mixed ℓ〈sub〉〈span〉p〈/span〉〈/sub〉-norms. This illuminates some of the non-uniqueness in the inverse problem and helps prevent over-interpretation that can occur by having only one solution. In addition, we use this ensemble to estimate the suite of 〈span〉p〈/span〉-values that can be used in a final inversion. First, the most common features of our ensemble are extracted using principal component analysis and edge detection procedures; this provides a reference model. A correlation of each member of the ensemble with the reference model, carried out in a windowed domain, then yields a set of 〈span〉p〈/span〉-values for each model cell. The efficacy of our technique is illustrated on a synthetic 2D cross-well example. We then apply our technique to the field example that motivated this research, the 3D inversion of magnetic data at a kimberlite site in Canada. Since the final regularization terms have different sets of 〈span〉p〈/span〉-values in different regions of model space we are able to recover compact regions associated with the kimberlite intrusions, continuous linear features with sharp edges that are associated with dykes, and a background that is relatively smooth. The result has a geologic character that would not have been achievable without the use of spatially variable mixed norms.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The engines of surface deformation in the Anatolia—Aegean region are a matter of debate, including the origin of the high elevations of the Anatolian plateau. Recent publications based on geological and thermo-mechanical modelling emphasize the role of dynamic topography in the plateau uplift. However, quantitative estimates of the contribution of dynamic topography are affected by large uncertainties due to insufficient knowledge of the crustal structure, in particular crustal thickness and density. To reduce these uncertainties, we provide a new accurate crustal thickness map of the Anatolia-Aegean domain computed from a large volume of broadband seismic data. In addition, we display high-resolution seismic sections of the internal structure of the crust in Western and Central Anatolia. Density contrasts are derived from the same seismic data set and Bouguer gravity anomaly computed from the EGM2008 model. Our crustal thickness model is highly correlated with the topography suggesting that the Anatolian plateau is close to isostatic equilibrium. The average density difference between crust and upper mantle computed from our crustal model and Bouguer gravity anomaly is low compared to the global average, ∼0.315 10〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 kg.m〈sup〉−3〈/sup〉. The ratio of surface elevation to crustal thickness is lower than average, 1/9.4, which also indicates a low-density crust. Differences between isostatic topography and observed topography are overall small (〈 500 m). The East-to-West gradients of crustal thickness and topography changes are nearly constant in between the Taurides and Pontides at the northern and southern borders of Anatolia. The observed constant crustal thickness gradient may indicate a low viscosity lower crust supported by the thin mantle lithosphere evidenced by seismic tomography beneath the Anatolian plateau. We propose that viscous flow in the lower crust has smoothed out lateral changes in the crustal structure expected for such a heterogeneous collage of continental fragments. This flow may originate from gravitational potential energy differences between Eastern Anatolia (thick crust, high elevations) and the Aegean Sea (thin crust, low elevations), suggesting that gravity plays an integral part in the westward escape of Anatolia.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We found that SH〈sub〉〈span〉diff〈/span〉〈/sub〉 phases generated by earthquakes in the Fiji-Tonga, recorded in India, are accompanied by secondary pulses. We interpreted them as a consequence of multipathing of S waves caused by the Pacific Large Low-Shear-Velocity Province (LLSVP). We analyzed the differential travel times between SH〈sub〉〈span〉diff〈/span〉〈/sub〉 and the secondary pulse, together with the absolute SH〈sub〉〈span〉diff〈/span〉〈/sub〉 arrival times, to constrain the thickness and velocity perturbations in the western end of the Pacific LLSVP. Our preferred model shows a lateral variation in the thickness of the LLSVP; the southern part reveals a thicker (300 km) low velocity region compared to the northern part (200 km). However, the velocity perturbations of the LLSVP appear to be comparable (-1.5%). The results are consistent with a scenario that the LLSVP is a chemically distinct pile with significant surface topography.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Primary microseism is the less studied seismic background vibration of the Earth. Evidence points to sources caused by ocean gravity waves coupling with the seafloor topography. As a result, these sources should be in water depth smaller than the wavelength of ocean waves. Using a state-of-the-art ocean wave model, we carry out the first global-scale seismic modeling of the vertical-component power spectral density of primary microseisms. Our modeling allows us to infer that the observed weak seasonality of primary microseisms in the southern hemisphere corresponds to a weak local seasonality of the sources. Moreover, a systematic analysis of the source regions that mostly contribute to each station reveals that stations on both the East and West sides of the North Atlantic Ocean are sensitive to frequency-dependent source regions. At low frequency (i.e., 0.05 Hz), the dominant source regions can be located thousands of kilometers away from the stations. This observation suggests that identifying the source regions of primary microseisms as the closest coasts can be misleading.〈/span〉

Description: 〈b〉Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China – Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo–Panda prediction system, version 1〈/b〉〈br〉 Guy P. Brasseur, Ying Xie, Anna Katinka Petersen, Idir Bouarar, Johannes Flemming, Michael Gauss, Fei Jiang, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Richard Kranenburg, Bas Mijling, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Matthieu Pommier, Arjo Segers, Mikhail Sofiev, Renske Timmermans, Ronald van der A, Stacy Walters, Jianming Xu, and Guangqiang Zhou〈br〉 Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 33-67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-33-2019, 2019〈br〉 An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for 37 urban areas in China. The paper presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a specific period of time and highlights recurrent differences between the model output. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.

Description: 〈b〉RandomFront 2.3: a physical parameterisation of fire spotting for operational fire spread models – implementation in WRF-SFIRE and response analysis with LSFire+〈/b〉〈br〉 Andrea Trucchia, Vera Egorova, Anton Butenko, Inderpreet Kaur, and Gianni Pagnini〈br〉 Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 69-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-69-2019, 2019〈br〉 Wildfires are a concrete problem and impact on human life, property and the environment. An extremely dangerous phenomenon is so-called 〈q〉fire spotting〈/q〉, i.e., the generation of secondary ignitions responsible for dangerous flare-ups during wildfires. The aim of this research was to improve the tools used for risk management through the inclusion of fire spotting in operational wildfire simulators used by forest service agencies.

Description: 〈b〉Vertical characterization of aerosol optical properties and brown carbon in winter in urban Beijing, China〈/b〉〈br〉 Conghui Xie, Weiqi Xu, Junfeng Wang, Qingqing Wang, Dantong Liu, Guiqian Tang, Ping Chen, Wei Du, Jian Zhao, Yingjie Zhang, Wei Zhou, Tingting Han, Qingyun Bian, Jie Li, Pingqing Fu, Zifa Wang, Xinlei Ge, James Allan, Hugh Coe, and Yele Sun〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 165-179, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-165-2019, 2019〈br〉 We present the first simultaneous real-time online measurements of aerosol optical properties at ground level and at 260 m on a meteorological tower in urban Beijing in winter. The vertical similarities and differences in scattering and absorption coefficients were characterized. The increases in MAC of BC were mainly associated with the coating materials on rBC. Coal combustion was the dominant source contribution of brown carbon followed by biomass burning and SOA in winter in Beijing.

Description: 〈b〉Dynamic changes in optical and chemical properties of tar ball aerosols by atmospheric photochemical aging〈/b〉〈br〉 Chunlin Li, Quanfu He, Julian Schade, Johannes Passig, Ralf Zimmermann, Daphne Meidan, Alexander Laskin, and Yinon Rudich〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 139-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-139-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉Following wood pyrolysis, tar ball aerosols were laboratory generated from wood tar separated into polar and nonpolar phases. Chemical information of fresh tar balls was obtained from a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and single-particle laser desorption/resonance enhanced multiphoton ionization mass spectrometry (SP-LD-REMPI-MS). Their continuous refractive index (RI) between 365 and 425 nm was retrieved using a broadband cavity enhanced spectroscopy (BBCES). Dynamic changes in the optical and chemical properties for the nonpolar tar ball aerosols in 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉-dependent photochemical process were investigated in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR). Distinct differences in the chemical composition of the fresh polar and nonpolar tar aerosols were identified. Nonpolar tar aerosols contain predominantly high-molecular weight unsubstituted and alkyl-substituted polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), while polar tar aerosols consist of a high number of oxidized aromatic substances (e.g., methoxy-phenols, benzenediol) with higher O : C ratios and carbon oxidation states. Fresh tar balls have light absorption characteristics similar to atmospheric brown carbon (BrC) aerosol with higher absorption efficiency towards the UV wavelengths. The average retrieved RI is 〈span〉1.661+0.020〈i〉i〈/i〉〈/span〉 and 〈span〉1.635+0.003〈i〉i〈/i〉〈/span〉 for the nonpolar and polar tar aerosols, respectively, with an absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) between 5.7 and 7.8 in the detected wavelength range. The RI fits a volume mixing rule for internally mixed nonpolar/polar tar balls. The RI of the tar ball aerosols decreased with increasing wavelength under photochemical oxidation. Photolysis by UV light (254 nm), without strong oxidants in the system, slightly decreased the RI and increased the oxidation state of the tar balls. Oxidation under varying OH exposure levels and in the absence of 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉 diminished the absorption (bleaching) and increased the O : C ratio of the tar balls. The photobleaching via OH radical initiated oxidation is mainly attributed to decomposition of chromophoric aromatics, nitrogen-containing organics, and high-molecular weight components in the aged particles. Photolysis of nitrous oxide (〈span〉N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O〈/span〉) was used to simulate 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉-dependent photochemical aging of tar balls in the OFR. Under high-〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉 conditions with similar OH exposure, photochemical aging led to the formation of organic nitrates, and increased both oxidation degree and light absorption for the aged tar ball aerosols. These observations suggest that secondary organic nitrate formation counteracts the bleaching by OH radical photooxidation to eventually regain some absorption of the aged tar ball aerosols. The atmospheric implication and climate effects from tar balls upon various oxidation processes are briefly discussed.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Atmospheric new particle formation in China〈/b〉〈br〉 Biwu Chu, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Federico Bianchi, Chao Yan, Tuukka Petäjä, and Markku Kulmala〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 115-138, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-115-2019, 2019〈br〉 The characteristics of new particle formation (NPF) in China, including frequency, formation rate, and particle growth rate, were summarized comprehensively and were compared among observations in different environments. The interactions between air pollution and NPF are discussed, as well as the possible reasons for more frequent NPF under heavy pollution conditions than in our current understanding. Significant and future research directions for NPF studies in China are also summarized.

Description: 〈b〉Dynamic changes in optical and chemical properties of tar ball aerosols by atmospheric photochemical aging〈/b〉〈br〉 Chunlin Li, Quanfu He, Julian Schade, Johannes Passig, Ralf Zimmermann, Daphne Meidan, Alexander Laskin, and Yinon Rudich〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 139-163, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-139-2019, 2019〈br〉 〈p〉Following wood pyrolysis, tar ball aerosols were laboratory generated from wood tar separated into polar and nonpolar phases. Chemical information of fresh tar balls was obtained from a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS) and single-particle laser desorption/resonance enhanced multiphoton ionization mass spectrometry (SP-LD-REMPI-MS). Their continuous refractive index (RI) between 365 and 425 nm was retrieved using a broadband cavity enhanced spectroscopy (BBCES). Dynamic changes in the optical and chemical properties for the nonpolar tar ball aerosols in 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉-dependent photochemical process were investigated in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR). Distinct differences in the chemical composition of the fresh polar and nonpolar tar aerosols were identified. Nonpolar tar aerosols contain predominantly high-molecular weight unsubstituted and alkyl-substituted polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), while polar tar aerosols consist of a high number of oxidized aromatic substances (e.g., methoxy-phenols, benzenediol) with higher O : C ratios and carbon oxidation states. Fresh tar balls have light absorption characteristics similar to atmospheric brown carbon (BrC) aerosol with higher absorption efficiency towards the UV wavelengths. The average retrieved RI is 〈span〉1.661+0.020〈i〉i〈/i〉〈/span〉 and 〈span〉1.635+0.003〈i〉i〈/i〉〈/span〉 for the nonpolar and polar tar aerosols, respectively, with an absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) between 5.7 and 7.8 in the detected wavelength range. The RI fits a volume mixing rule for internally mixed nonpolar/polar tar balls. The RI of the tar ball aerosols decreased with increasing wavelength under photochemical oxidation. Photolysis by UV light (254 nm), without strong oxidants in the system, slightly decreased the RI and increased the oxidation state of the tar balls. Oxidation under varying OH exposure levels and in the absence of 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉 diminished the absorption (bleaching) and increased the O : C ratio of the tar balls. The photobleaching via OH radical initiated oxidation is mainly attributed to decomposition of chromophoric aromatics, nitrogen-containing organics, and high-molecular weight components in the aged particles. Photolysis of nitrous oxide (〈span〉N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O〈/span〉) was used to simulate 〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉-dependent photochemical aging of tar balls in the OFR. Under high-〈span〉NO〈sub〉〈i〉x〈/i〉〈/sub〉〈/span〉 conditions with similar OH exposure, photochemical aging led to the formation of organic nitrates, and increased both oxidation degree and light absorption for the aged tar ball aerosols. These observations suggest that secondary organic nitrate formation counteracts the bleaching by OH radical photooxidation to eventually regain some absorption of the aged tar ball aerosols. The atmospheric implication and climate effects from tar balls upon various oxidation processes are briefly discussed.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Watershed classification for the Canadian prairie〈/b〉〈br〉 Jared D. Wolfe, Kevin R. Shook, Chris Spence, and Colin J. Whitfield〈br〉 Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-625,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for HESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Watershed classification can identify regions expected to respond similarly to disturbance. Methods should extend beyond hydrology to include other environmental questions, such as ecology and water quality. We developed a classification for the Canadian Prairie, and identified seven classes defined by watershed characteristics, including elevation, climate, wetland density, and surficial geology. Results provide a basis for evaluating watershed response to land management and climate condition.

Description: 〈b〉Implications of water management representations for watershed hydrologic modeling in the Yakima River basin〈/b〉〈br〉 Jiali Qiu, Qichun Yang, Xuesong Zhang, Maoyi Huang, Jennifer C. Adam, and Keyvan Malek〈br〉 Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 35-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-35-2019, 2019〈br〉 Complex water management activities challenge hydrologic modeling. We evaluated how different representations of reservoir operation and agricultural irrigation affect streamflow simulations in the Yakima River basin. Results highlight the importance of the inclusion of reliable reservoir and irrigation information in watershed models for improving watershed hydrology modeling. Models used here are public and hold the promise to benefit water assessment and management in other basins.

Description: 〈b〉Aircraft-based measurements of High Arctic springtime aerosol show evidence for vertically varying sources, transport and composition〈/b〉〈br〉 Megan D. Willis, Heiko Bozem, Daniel Kunkel, Alex K. Y. Lee, Hannes Schulz, Julia Burkart, Amir A. Aliabadi, Andreas B. Herber, W. Richard Leaitch, and Jonathan P. D. Abbatt〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 57-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-57-2019, 2019〈br〉 The vertical distribution of Arctic aerosol is an important driver of its climate impacts. We present vertically resolved measurements of aerosol composition and properties made in the High Arctic during spring on an aircraft platform. We explore how aerosol properties are related to transport history and show evidence of vertical trends in aerosol sources, transport mechanisms and composition. These results will help us to better understand aerosol–climate interactions in the Arctic.

Description: 〈b〉Estimating the soil N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O emission intensity of croplands in northwest Europe〈/b〉〈br〉 Vasileios Myrgiotis, Mathew Williams, Robert M. Rees, and Cairistiona F. E. Topp〈br〉 Biogeosciences Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-490,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for BG〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This study focuses on a northwest European cropland region and shows that the type of crop growing on a soil has notable effects on the emission of nitrous oxide (N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O – a greenhouse gas) from that soil. It was found that N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O emissions from soils under oilseed cultivation are significantly higher than soils under cereal cultivation. This variation is mostly explained by the fact that oilseeds require more nitrogen (fertiliser) than cereals especially at early crop growth stages.

Description: 〈b〉A Double ITCZ Phenomenology of Wind Errors in the Equatorial Atlantic in Seasonal Forecasts with ECMWF Models〈/b〉〈br〉 Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Teferi D. Demissie, and Thomas Toniazzo〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1316,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Modern climate models are affected by systematic biases that harm their ability to produce reliable seasonal forecasts and climate projections. In this study, we investigate causes of biases in wind patterns over the tropical Atlantic during northern spring in three related models. We find that the wind biases are associated with an increase in excess rainfall and convergence in the tropical western Atlantic at the start of April, leading to the redirection of trade winds away from the equator.

Description: 〈b〉Spiky Fluctuations and Scaling in High-Resolution EPICA Ice Core Dust Fluxes〈/b〉〈br〉 Shaun Lovejoy and Fabrice Lambert〈br〉 Clim. Past Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-171,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for CP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We analyze the statistical properties of the eight past glacial-interglacial cycles as well as subsections of a generic glacial cycle using the high-resolution dust flux dataset from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core. We show that the high southern latitude climate during glacial maxima, interglacial, and glacial inception is generally more stable but more drought-prone than during mid-glacial conditions.

Description: 〈b〉Nutrient distribution and nitrogen and oxygen isotopic composition of nitrate in water masses of the subtropical South Indian Ocean〈/b〉〈br〉 Natalie C. Harms, Niko Lahajnar, Birgit Gaye, Tim Rixen, Kirstin Dähnke, Markus Ankele, Ulrich Schwarz-Schampera, and Kay-Christian Emeis〈br〉 Biogeosciences Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-511,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for BG〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The Indian Ocean subtropical gyre is a large oligotrophic area that is likely to adjust to continued warming by increasing stratification, reduced nutrient supply, and decreasing biological production. In this study, we investigated concentrations of nutrients and stable isotopes of nitrate. We determine the lateral influence of water masses entering the gyre from the northern Indian Ocean and from the Southern Ocean and quantify the input of nitrogen by N〈sub〉2〈/sub〉-fixation into the surface layer.

Description: 〈b〉New particle formation in the marine atmosphere during seven cruise campaigns〈/b〉〈br〉 Yujiao Zhu, Kai Li, Yanjie Shen, Yang Gao, Xiaohuan Liu, Yang Yu, Huiwang Gao, and Xiaohong Yao〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 89-113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-89-2019, 2019〈br〉 In this paper, we investigate new particle formation (NPF) events during seven cruises. NPF events were observed on 25 days and were most likely associated with the long-range transport of anthropogenic air pollutants. The relationship between the net generated amount of new particles and their apparent formation rate is established and explained in terms of the roles of different vapor precursors. The survival probability of new particles to CCN size is also discussed.

Description: 〈b〉Aircraft-based measurements of High Arctic springtime aerosol show evidence for vertically varying sources, transport and composition〈/b〉〈br〉 Megan D. Willis, Heiko Bozem, Daniel Kunkel, Alex K. Y. Lee, Hannes Schulz, Julia Burkart, Amir A. Aliabadi, Andreas B. Herber, W. Richard Leaitch, and Jonathan P. D. Abbatt〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 57-76, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-57-2019, 2019〈br〉 The vertical distribution of Arctic aerosol is an important driver of its climate impacts. We present vertically resolved measurements of aerosol composition and properties made in the High Arctic during spring on an aircraft platform. We explore how aerosol properties are related to transport history and show evidence of vertical trends in aerosol sources, transport mechanisms and composition. These results will help us to better understand aerosol–climate interactions in the Arctic.

Description: 〈b〉Simulated single-layer forest canopies delay Northern Hemisphere snowmelt〈/b〉〈br〉 Markus Todt, Nick Rutter, Christopher G. Fletcher, and Leanne M. Wake〈br〉 The Cryosphere Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-270,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for TC〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Vegetation is often represented by a single layer in global land models. Studies have found deficient simulation of thermal radiation beneath forest canopies when represented by single-layer vegetation. This study corrects thermal radiation in forests for a global land model using single-layer vegetation in order to assess the effect of deficient thermal radiation on snow cover and snowmelt. Results indicate that single-layer vegetation causes snow in forests being too cold and melting too late.

Description: 〈b〉Brief Communication: Early season snowpack loss and implications for oversnow vehicle recreation travel planning〈/b〉〈br〉 Benjamin J. Hatchett and Hilary G. Eisen〈br〉 The Cryosphere, 13, 21-28, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-21-2019, 2019〈br〉 We examine the timing of early season snowpack relevant to oversnow vehicle (OSV) recreation over the past 3 decades in the Lake Tahoe region (USA). Data from two independent data sources suggest that the timing of achieving sufficient snowpack has shifted later by 2 weeks. Increasing rainfall and more dry days play a role in the later onset. Adaptation strategies are provided for winter travel management planning to address negative impacts of loss of early season snowpack for OSV usage.

Description: 〈b〉Aerosol radiative effects with MACv2〈/b〉〈br〉 Stefan Kinne〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-949,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 〈p〉onthly global maps for aerosol properties of the MACv2 climatology are applied in an off-line radiative transfer model to determine aerosol radiative effects. For details beyond global averages in most cases global maps are presented to visualize regional and seasonal details. Aside from the direct radiative (aerosol presence) effect, including those for aerosol components as extracted from MACv2 aerosol optics, also the major aerosol indirect radiative effect is covered. Hereby, the impact of smaller drops in water clouds due to added anthropogenic aerosol was simulated by applying a satellite retrieval based fit from locally associations between aerosol and drop concentrations over oceans. Present-day anthropogenic aerosols of MACv2 – on a global average basis – reduce the radiative net-fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by −1.0 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and at the surface by −2.1 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉. Direct cooling contributions are only about half of indirect contributions (−.35 vs −.65) at TOA, but about twice at the surface (−1.45 vs −.65), as solar absorption of the direct effect warms the atmosphere by +1.1 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉. Natural aerosols are on average less absorbing (for a relatively larger solar TOA cooling) and larger in size (now contributing with IR greenhouse warming). Thus, average TOA direct forcing efficiencies for total and anthropogenic aerosol happen to be similar: −11 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉/AOD at all-sky and −24 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉/AOD at clear-sky conditions. The present-day direct impact by all soot (BC) is globally averaged +0.55W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and at least half of it should be attributed to anthropogenic sources. Hereby any accuracy of anthropogenic impacts, not just for soot, suffers from the limited access to a pre-industrial reference. Anthropogenic uncertainty has a particular strong impact on aerosol indirect effects, which dominate the (TOA) forcing. Accounting for uncertainties in the anthropogenic definition, present-day aerosol forcing is estimated to stay within the −0.7 to −1.6 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 range, with a best estimate at −1 W/m〈sup〉2〈/sup〉. Calculations with model predicted temporal changes to anthropogenic AOD indicate that qualitatively the anthropogenic aerosol forcing has not changed much over the last decades and is not likely to increase over the next decades, despite strong regional shifts. These regional shifts explain most solar insolation (brightening or dimming) trends that have been observed by ground-based radiation data.〈/p〉

Description: 〈b〉Thermal structure of the mesopause region during the WADIS-2 rocket campaign〈/b〉〈br〉 Raimund Wörl, Boris Strelnikov, Timo P. Viehl, Josef Höffner, Pierre-Dominique Pautet, Michael J. Taylor, Yucheng Zhao, and Franz-Josef Lübken〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 77-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-77-2019, 2019〈br〉 Simultaneous temperature measurements during the WADIS-2 rocket campaign are used to investigate the thermal structure of the mesopause region. Vertically and horizontally resolved in situ and remote measurements are in good agreement and show dominating long-term and large-scale waves with periods of 24 h and higher tidal harmonics. Only a few gravity waves with periods shorter than 6 h and small amplitudes are there.

Description: 〈b〉Verification of anthropogenic VOC emission inventory through ambient measurements and satellite retrievals〈/b〉〈br〉 Jing Li, Yufang Hao, Maimaiti Simayi, Yuqi Shi, Ziyan Xi, and Shaodong Xie〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1133,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 We established an emission inventory of anthropogenic VOCs in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China. The developed emission inventory was evaluated through ambient measurements and satellite retrieval results. To obtain a more accurate emission inventory, we propose the investigation of the household coal consumption, the adjustment of EFs based on the latest pollution control policies, and the verification of the source profiles of OVOCs and halocarbons.

Description: 〈b〉Classification of aerosol population type and cloud condensation nuclei properties in a coastal California littoral environment using an unsupervised cluster model〈/b〉〈br〉 Samuel A. Atwood, Sonia M. Kreidenweis, Paul J. DeMott, Markus D. Petters, Gavin C. Cornwell, Andrew C. Martin, and Kathryn A. Moore〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1297,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This paper presents measurements of aerosol particles at a coastal location. The particles were classified into distinct aerosol types using both microphysical measurements and meteorological information, allowing rapid changes between the aerosol types to be reliably identified. These particles can alter cloud and precipitation processes, and inclusion of the differences between types can improve atmospheric models and remote sensing retrievals in littoral zones.

Description: 〈b〉Development of a balloon-borne instrument for CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 vertical profile observations in the troposphere〈/b〉〈br〉 Mai Ouchi, Yutaka Matsumi, Tomoki Nakayama, Kensaku Shimizu, Takehiko Sawada, Toshinobu Machida, Hidekazu Matsueda, Yousuke Sawa, Isamu Morino, Osamu Uchino, Tomoaki Tanaka, and Ryoichi Imasu〈br〉 Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/amt-2018-376,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for AMT〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A novel, practical observation system for measuring tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) concentrations carried by a small helium-filled balloon (CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 sonde), has been developed for the first time. The low-cost CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 sondes can potentially be used for frequently measurements of vertical profiles of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 in any parts of the world providing as useful information to understand the global and regional carbon budgets by replenishing the present sparse observation coverage.

Description: 〈b〉Comparison of Different Sequential Assimilation Algorithms for Satellite-derived Leaf Area Index Using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (lanai)〈/b〉〈br〉 Xiao-Lu Ling, Cong-Bin Fu, Zong-Liang Yang, and Wei-Dong Guo〈br〉 Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-232,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for GMD〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Both observation and simulation can provide the temporal and spatial variation of vegetation characteristic, while they are not satisfactory for understanding the mechanism of the exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere. Data assimilation (DA) can combine the observation and models via mathematical statistical analysis.The results show that the Ensemble Adjust Kalman Filter (EAKF) is the optical algorithm. In addition, models perform better when the DA accept more proportion of observation.

Description: 〈b〉The importance of crystalline phases in ice nucleation by volcanic ash〈/b〉〈br〉 Elena C. Maters, Donald B. Dingwell, Corrado Cimarelli, Dirk Müller, Thomas F. Whale, and Benjamin J. Murray〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1326,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 This experimental study investigates the influence of volcanic ash chemical composition, crystallinity, and mineralogy on its ability to promote freezing of supercooled water. The results indicate that crystals in ash play a key role in this process, and suggest that alkali and plagioclase feldspars in ash may be highly ice-active. These findings contribute to improving understanding of the potential of ash emissions from different explosive eruptions to impact ice formation in the atmosphere.

Description: 〈b〉Large increases in N〈sub〉cn〈/sub〉 and N〈sub〉ccn〈/sub〉 together with a nucleation-modeparticle pool over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in the spring of 2014〈/b〉〈br〉 Juntao Wang, Yanjie Shen, Kai Li, Yang Gao, Huiwang Gao, and Xiaohong Yao〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1089,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this paper, we studied the spatiotemporal variability of N〈sub〉cn〈/sub〉 and particle number size distributions, as well as N〈sub〉ccn〈/sub〉 and CCN activities over the NWPO in the spring of 2014. Several new findings have been revealed and discussed, e.g., large increases of N〈sub〉cn〈/sub〉 and N〈sub〉ccn〈/sub〉, against historical data and small contributions of dust and BB aerosols to N〈sub〉cn〈/sub〉 and N〈sub〉ccn〈/sub〉 on the monthly time scale, etc. This work may help understand the influence of the current outflow from the Asian continent on the climate.

Description: 〈b〉Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events〈/b〉〈br〉 Sumira Nazir Zaz, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Ramkumar Thokuluwa Krishnamoorthy, and Yesubabu Viswanadhapalli〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 15-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15-2019, 2019〈br〉 This paper is of first of its kind for the Jammu and Kashmir (western Himalayas) region, India. It shows the clear relation between the upper tropospheric Rossby wave activity (potential vorticity at the 350 K potential temperature and 200 mb level surface pressure) and the surface weather parameters (e.g., precipitation) over a period of 3 decades during 1980–2016. This indicates that the climatic weather pattern over the Kashmir region is influenced mostly by global climate change processes.

Description: 〈b〉Secondary organic aerosol formation from smoldering and flaming combustion of biomass: a box model parametrization based on volatility basis set〈/b〉〈br〉 Giulia Stefenelli, Jianhui Jiang, Amelie Bertrand, Emily A. Bruns, Simone M. Pieber, Urs Baltensperger, Nicolas Marchand, Sebnem Aksoyoglu, André S. H. Prévôt, Jay G. Slowik, and Imad El Haddad〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1308,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 Box model simulations, based on the volatility basis set (VBS) approach, of smog chamber wood combustion experiments conducted at different temperatures (−10 °C, 2 °C, 15 °C), emission loads, combustion conditions (flaming and smoldering) and residential stoves fabricated in the last two decades. Novel parameterization methods based on a genetic algorithm approach allowed estimation of precursor class contributions to SOA and evaluation of the effect of emission variability on SOA yield predictions.

Description: 〈b〉Impacts of Horizontal Resolution and Air–Sea Flux Parameterization on the Intensity and Structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)〈/b〉〈br〉 Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin〈br〉 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-333,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for NHESS〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air-sea flux parameterization can exert large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.

Description: 〈b〉Primary and secondary sources of ambient formaldehyde in the Yangtze River Delta based on OMPS observation〈/b〉〈br〉 Wenjing Su, Cheng Liu, Qihou Hu, Shaohua Zhao, Youwen Sun, Wei Wang, Yizhi Zhu, Jianguo Liu, and Jhoon Kim〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1192,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 For a better understanding of the pollution and atmospheric chemistry of HCHO, we evaluated its primary and secondary sources in the Yangtze River Delta based on HCHO column density from Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and combining with surface in-situ measurements. We found that secondary formation contributed most to ambient HCHO for a long time, but primary emission could be dominant in the winter. The usability of total HCHO as the proxy of VOCs reactivity depends on time scale.

Description: 〈b〉Local and regional contributions to fine particulate matter in the 18 cities of Sichuan Basin, southwestern China〈/b〉〈br〉 Xue Qiao, Hao Guo, Ya Tang, Pengfei Wang, Wenye Deng, Xing Zhao, Jianlin Hu, Qi Ying, and Hongliang Zhang〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1214,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 A source-oriented version of the CMAQ model was used to quantify contributions from nine regions to PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉 and its components in the 18 cities within the Sichuan Basin. Non-local emissions contribute to 39~66 % and 25~52 % to the citywide average PM〈sub〉2.5〈/sub〉 concentrations of 45~126 and 14~31 μg m〈sup〉−3〈/sup〉 in the winter and summer, respectively. This study demonstrates the importance of joint emission control efforts among cities within the SCB and neighbor regions to the east.

Description: 〈b〉MAX-DOAS measurements of tropospheric NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and HCHO in Nanjing and the comparison to OMI observations〈/b〉〈br〉 Ka Lok Chan, Zhuoru Wang, Aijun Ding, Klaus-Peter Heue, Yicheng Shen, Jing Wang, Feng Zhang, Nan Hao, and Mark Wenig〈br〉 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-1266,2019〈br〉 〈b〉Manuscript under review for ACP〈/b〉 (discussion: open, 0 comments)〈br〉 The manuscript presents long term observations of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) and formaldehyde (HCHO) in Nanjing using a MAX-DOAS instrument. The measurements were performed from April 2013 to February 2017. The MAX-DOAS measurements of NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and HCHO are used to validate OMI satellite observations and to investigate the influences of region transport of air pollutants on the air quality in Nanjing.