ALBERT

Notes: Analyses of risk-bearing often assume that agents face only one risk. Agents however usually face several risks and the interaction between them can affect the willingness to bear any one of them. We consider how the introduction of background risk affects the comparative statics predictions of distribution changes in the standard two asset portfolio model. We show that such predictions are fairly robust, no matter what the correlation between the two risks. We consider changes in the conditional distributions of the risky asset's return; and changes in the marginal distribution of the asset's return. For the first question, a version of Gollier's (1995) Central Riskiness order is sufficient and necessary to increase risk-bearing. For the second question, Monotone Likelihood Ratio improvements are sufficient and necessary. Many of our proofs illustrate the "basis" approach to comparative statics under uncertainty.

Notes: If Cournot oligopolists face uncertainty about the intercept of a linear demand function and if the realized market price must be non-negative, then expected demand becomes convex, which can create a multiplicity of equilibria. This note shows that if the distribution of the demand intercept has a monotone hazard rate and if another, rather weak, assumption is satisfied, then uniqueness of equilibrium is guaranteed.

Notes: This paper examines whether taxation is effective in eliminating sunspot fluctuations by considering two separate model economies by which indeterminacy occurs for empirically plausible specification of the model parameters. In the first model where production exhibits social increasing returns to scale and private constant returns to scale, I find that i) labor income tax alone, even if the tax schedule is flat, is effective; ii) taxes on labor and capital income would be more effective with increased progressivity; iii) at each average tax rate, labor income tax is more effective than capital income tax. However, in the second model where production exhibits social constant returns to scale and private decreasing returns to scale, I find that labor and capital income taxes at all progressivity levels are ineffective in removing sunspot fluctuations.

Notes: This paper analyzes some unnoticed predictions of the two-sector AK model in line with the recent literature on embodied technical change. Firstly, by confining constant returns to capital to the investment sector, the AK model generates endogenously the secular downward trend of the relative price of equipment investment and the rising real investment rate observed in US NIPA data. Secondly, Jones' (1995) claim that the AK model fails to reconcile the empirical facts of trending real investment rates and stationary output growth vanishes in the two-sector version. Thirdly, consistent with the evidence from cross-country studies, the model predicts a negative relation between GDP per capita and the relative price of equipment. Hence, in spite of its overly simplistic structure, the two-sector AK model provides important intuition on the implications of a trending relative price of equipment investment in endogenous growth environments.

Notes: We examine stability under learning of sunspot equilibria in Real Business Cycle type models with indeterminacies. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of examining alternative representations of sunspot solutions. A general bivariate reduced form contains parameter regions in which sunspots are stable under learning. However, for parameters restricted to those generated by standard models of indeterminacy, we find, under one information assumption, that no stable sunspots exist, and under another information assumption, that they exist only for a very small part of the indeterminacy region. This leads to the following puzzle: why does indeterminacy almost always imply instability in RBC-type models?

Notes: The technology growth trends that underlie recent productivity patterns are investigated in a framework that incorporates investment-specific technological progress. Structural-break tests and regime-shifting models reveal the presence of a downward shift in total factor productivity growth in the late 1960s and an upward shift in investment-specific technology growth in the mid-1980s. In both cases, these breaks precede the generally recognized dates of labor productivity growth shifts. Simulations of technology growth shocks in a basic neoclassical model show that induced patterns of capital accumulation are generally consistent with the observed lags between technological advances and changes in productivity growth.

Notes: We develop a graphical 3-equation New Keynesian model for macroeconomic analysis to replace the traditional IS-LM-AS model. The new graphical IS-PC-MR model is a simple version of the one commonly used by central banks and captures the forward-looking thinking engaged in by the policy maker. Within a common framework, we compare our model to other monetary-rule based models that are used for teaching and policy analysis. We show that the differences among the models centre on whether the central bank optimizes and on the lag structure in the IS and Phillips curve equations. We highlight the analytical and pedagogical advantages of our preferred model. The model can be used to analyze the consequences of a wide range of macroeconomic shocks, to identify the structural determinants of the coefficients of a Taylor type interest rate rule, and to explain the origin and size of inflation bias.

Notes: This paper examines a search-matching model in which match specific output follows a geometric Brownian motion. As opposed to Poisson Processes, Brownian motions generate a negative correlation between job output and the likelihood of separation. Introducing geometric Brownian motion improves the fit of the standard model with respect to the observed patterns of worker turnover and wage dispersion, without taking from its relevance at the macro level. Firstly, the proposed set-up does not require learning about match quality in order to yield a hump-shaped hazard rate of job separation. Secondly, the aggregate wage distribution is unimodal and its right tail belongs to the Pareto family, so it satisfies the "heavy-tail" property that is commonly observed in the data.

Notes: This paper demonstrates that sectoral heterogeneity itself, without additional bells or whistles, has important, first-order implications for the transmission of aggregate shocks to aggregate variables in an otherwise standard DSGE model. The effects of sectoral heterogeneity on this transmission are decomposed into two channels: a "relative price" channel and a "relative productivity" channel. The relative price channel results from changes in the relative prices of aggregates, such as investment vs. consumption, in response to a shock. The relative productivity channel arises from changes in the distribution of inputs across sectors. We show that, for standard multi-sector models, this latter channel is second-order, but becomes first-order if we consider a nontraded input such as capital utilization or introduce a wedge that thwarts the steady-state equalization of marginal products of a traded input across sectors. For reasonable parameterizations, the relative productivity channel causes aggregate productivity to vary procyclically in response to even non-technological shocks, such as changes in government purchases.

Notes: This paper derives a closed form solution for the Ramsey model with CRRA utility and Cobb-Douglas technology, for the case where capital's share is equal to the reciprocal of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. The solution sheds light on the dynamics of the model and provides an exact expression for the speed of convergence.

Notes: This paper considers whether the sticky information model of Mankiw and Reis (2002) can robustly deliver inflation inertia. I find that four features of the model play a key role in determining inflation inertia: the frequency of information updating, the degree of real rigidities, the nature and persistence of monetary policy, and the presence or not of information stickiness elsewhere in the economy. Real rigidities serve to dampen firms' desired price changes and are a critical element in delivering inflation inertia. The type of monetary policy, money-growth vs. interest rate rules, also matters, with Taylor rules making inflation inertia less likely than under money growth rules. Adding sticky information in consumption to the model yields a more gradual adjustment of output, thereby decreasing the incentive for firms to change prices on impact and increasing the inertia of inflation. I also explore the implications of using random versus fixed durations of information rigidity and argue that with the latter, the choice of the policy rule has a smaller effect on the qualitative response of inflation. These results allow us to sort out some conflicting conclusions on inflation inertia in sticky information models and suggest that inertia is more sensitive to parameter choices than previously thought.

Notes: We study an optimal growth model with one-hoss-shay vintage capital, where labor resources can be allocated freely either to production, technology adoption or capital maintenance. Technological progress is partly embodied. Adoption labor increases the level of embodied technical progress. First, we are able to disentangle the amplification-propagation role of maintenance in business fluctuations: in the short run, the response of the model to transitory shocks on total factor productivity in the final good sector are definitely much sharper compared to the counterpart model without maintenance but with the same average depreciation rate. Moreover, the one-hoss shay technology is shown to reinforce this amplification-propagation mechanism. We also find that accelerations in embodied technical progress should be responded by a gradual adoption effort, and capital maintenance should be the preferred instrument in the short run.

Notes: Inflation can "grease" the wheels of the labor market by relaxing downward wage rigidity but it can also increase uncertainty and have a negative "sand" effect. This paper studies the grease effect of inflation by looking at whether the interaction between inflation and labor market regulations affects how employment responds to changes in output. The results show that in industrial countries with highly regulated labor markets, the grease effect of inflation dominates the sand effect. In the case of developing countries, we rarely find a significant effect of inflation or labor market regulations and provide evidence indicating that this could be due to the presence of a large informal sector and limited enforcement of de jure labor market regulations.

Notes: We study standard monetary-policy rules with inflation-rate targets and either interest-rate or money-supply instruments using a flexible-price, perfect-foresight model. We focus mainly on interest-rate rules, but the results for money-supply rules are analogous. A locally-unique target equilibrium always exists. There are also below-target equilibria (BTE) with inflation below target and constant or asymptotically approaching or eventually reaching a below-target value. Liquidity traps are neither necessary nor sufficient for BTE. Such equilibria can also arise if monetary policy keeps the interest rate above a lower bound. We construct monetary-policy rules that preclude BTE. All are non-monotonic and discontinuous in current inflation. Each implies a difference equation in inflation. Some of these difference equations are continuous, but others are not. They are all non-monotonic and non-differentiable at a point. We argue that Japan's difficulties in the 1990s were probably the result of a stabilization problem rather than an indeterminacy problem.

Notes: The United States relies for its government revenues more on the taxation of capital relative to the taxation of labor than countries in continental Europe do. In this paper we ask what can account for this. Our approach is to look at Markov perfect equilibria of a two-country growth model where both governments use labor, capital and corporate taxes to finance exogenously given streams of public expenditure under period-by-period balanced budget constraints. There is no commitment technology and the equilibrium policies are time-consistent. We find that differences in productivity, size, and government spending can account for the heavy American reliance on capital taxation.

Notes: This paper evaluates quantitatively the impact of the observed demographic transition on aggregate variables (factor prices, saving rate, output growth), and on inter-generational welfare in developing economies. It does so by developing a large-scale two-region equilibrium overlapping generations model calibrated to the North (more developed countries) and the South (less developed countries). The paper highlights that the effects of the demographic trends for less developed regions may depend on the degree of international capital mobility and on the extent to which the large Pay-As-You-Go systems in place in the more developed world will be reformed.

Notes: We analyze the effect that competition between HMOs has on the cost and quality of medical services. Our key result is that increasing competition enhances consumer utility while also moderating the impact of managed care on quality and costs. Indeed, we find that heightened competition between HMOs can cause an overall increase in care quality and costs. This result derives from an important, but overlooked, feature of the managed care market place. Plans differentiate themselves by the size and depth of their provider network. The resulting competition to attract physicians exerts a moderating effect on the incentive contracts HMOs write with providers.

Notes: Eliciting actual donations toward a public good has been proposed as a means of estimating a lower bound to individuals' compensating surplus, and can be accomplished using mail/phone surveys or field experiments. This study shows that when warm-glow is present, the elicitation instrument decreases the transaction costs of donating. This presents an obstacle to using the donation mechanism. As a remedy, we propose the use of a multi-donation mechanism where subjects can direct their donation to alternative public goods. Results from a field experiment confirm this instrument-induced bias can be large, suggesting field experiment practitioners should seriously consider how their experimental procedures may alter economic behavior.

Notes: In the light of recent policies aiming at raising the computer literacy of young generations and at reducing the digital divide, this paper analyzes to what extent the probability of an individual having computer abilities is affected by the computer skills of her household's other members, i.e. if there are significant within household peer effects. We show how peer effects can be identified when skills are measured with a continuous variable and the learning costs are increasing and convex. Our application on a sample of Italian households indicates that peer abilities within a family significantly increase the individual probability of being skilled.

Notes: This paper presents new evidence on the role of gender segregation and pay structure in explaining gender wage differentials of full-time salaried workers in Spain. Data from the 1995 and 2002 Wage Structure Surveys reveal that raw gender wage gaps decreased from 0.24 to 0.14 over the seven-year period. Average differences in the base wage and wage complements decreased from 0.09 to 0.05 and from 0.59 to 0.40, respectively. However, the gender wage gap is still large after accounting for workers' human capital, job and pay structure characteristics, and female segregation into low-paying industries, occupations, establishments, and occupations within establishments.

Notes: Using a broad multi-country sample, we find that individuals who contribute to the public good of environmental protection report higher levels of life satisfaction and happiness. We show that this result is robust to the use of an instrumental variables technique and provide several pieces of evidence that this positive relationship between contributions and well-being is due to a warm-glow motive. First, well-being does not increase proportionally with contributions, consistent with the warm-glow model that it is the act of giving that generates utility. Second, individuals who think of themselves as socially responsible derive greater satisfaction from their contribution to environmental protection as would be the case if the contribution reinforces a favorable self image. Interestingly, conforming to a social norm may be a motivation for some individuals, but the presence of this motive depends on individual attitudes towards social responsibility. Among those who express the highest level of social responsibility, conforming to the norm makes them less satisfied with life. However, individuals with a moderate level of social responsibility do report higher levels of happiness when their public goods contributions conform to societal norms.

Notes: Although there is a sizeable literature on the effect of private school attendance on academic student outcomes, the number of studies that investigate the impact of school sector on non-academic outcomes is limited. Using a rich data set, we analyze the impact of Catholic school attendance on the likelihood that teenagers use or sell drugs, commit property crime, have sex, join gangs, attempt suicide, or run away from home. We employ propensity score matching methods to control for the endogeneity of school choice. Catholic school attendance reduces the propensity to use cocaine and to have sex for female students. However, it increases the propensity to use and sell drugs for male students.

Notes: One expects people with graduate training in economics to have a deeper understanding of economic processes and reasoning than people without such training. However, as others have noted over the past 25 years, modern graduate education may emphasize mathematics and technique to the detriment of economic reasoning. One of the most important contributions economics has to offer as a discipline is the understanding of opportunity cost and how to apply this concept to all forms of decision making. We examine how PhD economists answer an introductory economics textbook question that requires identifying the relevant opportunity cost of an action. The results are not consistent with our expectation that graduate training leads to a deeper understanding of the concept. We explore the implications of our results for the relevance of economists in policy, research, and teaching.

Notes: Framing a decision situation differently has affected behavior substantially in previous studies. This paper tests a framing effect in a field experiment at the University of Zurich. Each semester, every student has to decide whether to contribute to two social funds. Students were randomly informed that a high percentage of the student population contributed (or, equivalently, that a low percentage did not contribute), while others received the information that a relatively low percentage contributed (or a high percentage did not contribute).The results show the influence of framing effects is limited. People behave in a conditional cooperative way if informed either about the number of contributors or about the equivalent number of non-contributors. The positive correlation between group behavior and individual behavior is, however, weaker when the focus is on the defectors. The field experiment also shows gender differences in social comparison.

Notes: With fixed costs of developing technology, taxes can generate large efficiency costs by slowing the rate of diffusion and these costs are not accounted for in conventional analyses. This paper illustrates the potential importance of this idea in the context of taxes on broadband Internet access at an early stage of its existence by combining data on individual demand by area with data on supplier entry into those markets. Applying a tax to broadband in 1998 would have reduced the quantity and generated a large deadweight loss in the conventional model but when the analysis accounts for the fixed costs of entering new markets, taxes lead to delayed entry in several markets. In these places, the lost consumer surplus is additional deadweight loss and it more than doubles the true efficiency costs from taxation. The conventional model also dramatically understates the share of the tax burden borne by consumers.

Notes: Our maintained hypothesis is that drug development responds to the intensity of consumer demand. We look at the distribution of drug development by disease and link this to the economic harm caused by disease as measured by mortality. Mortality data represent the net effect of human frailty and the efficacy of the existing drugs on the market. If people continue to die from a given condition then existing drugs are not perfect and there are potential profits from developing a more effective compound. We aggregate economic harm worldwide and into three broad regions: the United States, other developed countries, and underdeveloped countries. We find that economic harm motivates the distribution of drug development across diseases, but it is economic harm in the United States alone that matters.

Notes: Our research presents new evidence on the age pattern of the implicit value of life revealed from workers' differential wages and job safety pairings. Although aging reduces the number of years of life expectancy, aging can affect the value of life through an effect on planned life-cycle consumption. The elderly could, a priori, have the highest implicit value of life if there is a life-cycle plan to defer consumption until old age. We find that largely due to the age pattern of consumption, which is non-constant, the implicit value of life rises and falls over the lifetime in a way that the value for the elderly is higher than the average over all ages or for the young. There are important health policy implications of our empirical results. Because there may be age-specific benefits of programs to save statistical lives, instead of valuing the lives of the elderly at less than the young, health policymakers should more correctly value the lives of the elderly at as much as twice the young because of relatively greater consumption lost when accidental death occurs.

Notes: This paper analyzes the problem of child labor in an infinite-horizon dynamic model with a variable rate of time preference and credit constraints. The variability in the rate of time preference leads to the possibility of multiple steady states and a poverty trap. The paper considers the long-run and short-run effects of an array of policies like enrollment subsidy, improvement in primary education infrastructure, lump-sum subsidy, and variations in loan market parameters. We distinguish between policies that reduce child labor in the long run only in the presence of a variable discount rate and other policies which work whether or not the discount rate is variable. Credit-related policies belong to the former group. Policies that reduce child labor and increase family consumption in the long run may have an adverse effect of lowering consumption in the short run.

Notes: Barriers to trade are commonly viewed as a result of political systems in which politically influential groups benefit from and successfully lobby for protection. However, trade policy is a highly inefficient tool for redistributing income. Although recent theoretical research has focused on explanations of why (inefficient) trade barriers might be preferred to more direct means of redistribution, this research has been carried out with little empirical support. We address this gap in the literature with an exploratory cross-country empirical investigation of the economic factors correlated with a reliance on tariffs over subsidies. We find that the existing theoretical literature is consistent with the cross-country evidence.

Notes: Although most models of environmental compliance are based on a variation of the rational polluter model, regulated entities may not always intentionally decide to violate based on the relative costs and benefits of doing so. According to the complexity critique, a significant amount of noncompliance may be the result of ignorance about the requirements of the law. Using hazardous waste regulations as a case study, this paper examines the role that rationality and complexity play in environmental compliance. The results suggest that both are necessary to explain hazardous waste compliance behavior. In support of the rational polluter model, the results show that factors which increase the cost of compliance also increase the likelihood of a violation while factors that increase the likelihood of inspections and detection decrease the probability of a violation. In support of the complexity critique, the results show that larger facilities and facilities of multi-plant companies are less likely to violate, while facilities that are subject to more complex regulations are more likely to violate. Also in support of the complexity critique, facilities learn from past inspections and facilities in states with programs directed toward reducing complexity are less likely to violate. This mixed support holds across various subgroup of facilities, although there does appear to be some difference in the factors that contribute to different types of violations. In particular, non-management violations appear to be driven less by a rational comparison of the costs and benefits of violations than by the complexity of regulations.

Notes: This paper examines whether local relative factor supplies affect local relative factor prices across US states. Using data on relative wages and relative labor supplies across the US, I find that state specific relative labor supplies significantly impact state specific relative wages across the US. Moreover, in an effort to reconcile my finding with that of Hanson and Slaughter (2000), I rerun their model and I prove that their interpretation is incorrect, and that in fact, differences in relative labor supplies across states determine relative wages and industry production techniques. These findings suggest that relative FPE does not hold across US states. In addition, the findings imply that immigration shocks to US states have a significant effect on relative wages, holding all else equal, as long as the immigrant inflows significantly impact states' relative labor supplies.

Notes: Many of the North American railroads have introduced differentiated services for grain shipments in the past decade. Most interesting have been innovations in guaranteed railcar service which have evolved since their inception. In most cases, pricing and allocation of these services have used some type of bidding mechanism. This paper explores the strategic implications of these mechanisms for the grain shipping industry. A model was developed to analyze the effects of critical variables on equilibrium bids. The paper extends the literature on pricing and car allocation mechanisms whereby auctions are used as an alternative to negotiations and posted-prices in the rail transport sector.

Notes: In the presence of scarce shelf space, retail grocers face the proliferation of new products and high failure rates. Accurately predicting the demand for a new product becomes increasingly difficult for retailers as the number of product offerings increases. This study explores slotting allowances and failure fees as mechanisms to screen new products' demand distributions. Mechanism design framework and two moments of the product demand distribution are utilized to eliminate mean-variance dominated products and separate non-dominated products by their demand distributions. Model results suggest that accurately designed menus of contracts including retail prices, slotting allowances, failure fees (or success rebates) and sales targets can separate products by their demand distributions and alleviate asymmetric information problems.

Notes: We study the price response of national brands to the development of private labels. Using monthly data from a consumer survey, we show that prices of national brands increase with the development of private labels. However, we also show that the price increase in national brand products is explained by a strategy of product differentiation. Finally, price reaction of national brands differs with the type of private labels they are facing.

Notes: This paper explores the indirect inflationary mechanism allowed by loss-leaders banning laws. In a model where a monopolist producer sells his product through vertically separated and differentiated retailers, we show that the ban of loss-leading can be used strategically by the producer to increase his wholesale price and pay the retailers through negotiated listing fees, thus raising his profit. The ban turns wholesale prices into floor prices, thus increasing resale price and lessening consumers' welfare. These results are robust if the listing fees are two-part tariff.

Notes: This study examines supermarket retailer behavior in the procurement of iceberg lettuce from California and Arizona, vine-ripe and mature-green tomatoes from California, and mature-green tomatoes from Florida. The analysis relies upon both a reduced-form specification of farm-retail price spreads and a structural model of procurement for a perishable commodity with inelastic supply. The evidence supports a conclusion that buyers have been able to exercise oligopsony power in procuring iceberg lettuce from grower-shippers in California and Arizona. The evidence regarding buyer market power is more mixed for fresh tomatoes. The apparent success of the Florida mature-green tomato industry in enforcing a price floor and capturing a significant share of the surplus in excess of the price floor demonstrates the potential benefits to producers from coordinated behavior.

Notes: This paper examines how ownership structure affects endogenous quality choice and the subsequent equilibrium outcomes. Investor owned firms (IOFs) and producer cooperatives (COOPs) are analyzed within a duopoly framework including a primary and a secondary level. The firms play a two-stage game, first simultaneously choosing the level of quality to produce and then compete in prices. It is shown that if the cost of quality at primary level is fixed, and/or variable exhibiting non-constant returns to scale, firms can have a structural cost advantage due to ownership structure in addition to the high-quality advantage identified in the previous literature.In the case of a fixed cost of quality at primary level, it is shown that although IOFs charge higher prices they generate a larger consumer surplus than COOPs by marketing higher qualities. Cooperatives generate a larger producer surplus while the market share of the high-quality good is independent of ownership structure. In the case of a variable cost of quality at primary level, a cooperative firm possesses a structural cost advantage which is used to market larger quantities of higher levels of quality generating larger profits, larger consumer surplus and larger social welfare. Policy implications of the different structures are discussed.

Notes: Psychological experiments have revealed that more choice does not always make one better off. For example, consumers are sometimes more likely to purchase a product from a small variety than a large variety. Some have suggested that this excessive-choice effect may have implications for how well markets serve society. This paper constructs an economic model where the excessive-choice effect results from search costs. The model shows that it is possible for markets to produce too much variety, but there are also incentives inducing markets to provide an optimal variety. Advertising, retailer market power, and slotting fees are not just signs of imperfect competition, but mechanisms of ensuring consumers are presented with an ideal choice set.

Notes: Although many theoretical industrial organization models are based on the existence of a critical mass of exogenously "brand loyal" consumers, we find little empirical evidence supporting these assumptions in the orange juice retail market. There are very few loyal consumers. More importantly, the frequency with which stores conduct sales affects the share of loyal types so that loyalty is endogenous rather than exogenous. Households' demographics have statistically significant but economically minor effects on switching behavior. Switching across frozen and refrigerated states is very common, leading to more complicated substitution patterns and less loyalty than one observes looking at each state separately.

Notes: This paper investigates the existence of market power in the Swedish food and beverage industry and how market power has been affected by European competition (the Single Market and Swedish EU membership). The study makes use of a census of some 500 firms for the period 1990-2002. The results show that firms in the Swedish food and beverage industry do enjoy some market power, the degree of which varies significantly across the sectors of the food and beverage industry. Increased foreign competition has contributed to reducing market power in sectors that were protected by tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade prior to Swedish EU membership.

Notes: This paper revisits the analysis of generic commodity advertising under product differentiation by Crespi and Marette. Crespi and Marette had shown that a dominant firm producing high-quality goods and facing a competitive fringe of lower quality producers could be harmed by a generic advertising campaign while the fringe was left unaffected. Under this dominant-firm model, a question remained why these producers might support a program for which they were indifferent. In this paper we show that under a duopoly model a high-quality firm may be harmed while its lower-quality rival may be made better off by a generic program, thus helping to explain why some producers might favor a program while others do not. Further, this paper dismisses the claim made by some litigants that increased branded advertising is the result of a deleterious effect of generic advertising.

Notes: With increasing interest in renewable energy from agriculture, including biopower and cellulose ethanol, there is a need for better understanding of the economic organization of this emerging industry. Study of the organization of the biopower industry represents an under-researched area and a new application of transaction cost theory to an emerging industry. Refinement of the theory can also result from challenging applications. This article provides an application of transaction cost economics to the existing United States biopower industry while challenging the empirical convention of excluding production cost variables from transaction cost analysis. Utilizing survey data from 53 biopower generators we study the relationship between physical asset specificity, site specificity, and scale in explaining firms' decisions to procure inputs internally, externally, or to use both methods. Consistent with transaction cost theory, both site specificity and scale are good predictors of organizational form. Given this evidence, this article reconsiders the impact of scale and transaction costs on the choice of organizational from.

Notes: This article is a theoretical contribution to the debate surrounding the introduction of Fair Trade products into large-scale retail distribution. In the model, a Fair Trade certifier and a traditional producer compete to supply their product to a single retailer, consumers who are Fair Trade likers are willing to pay an "ethical" premium for the Fair Trade product, and the premium depends on the revenue of Fair Trade product producers. The conditions of existence of an equilibrium where the Fair Trade product coexists with the traditional brand product on the retailer's shelves are highlighted. In particular, we show that a Fair Trade certifier implements this equilibrium if his preferences are such that the weight devoted to the price paid to producers is smaller than the weight he grants to the quantities of Fair Trade product sold. We also show that a retailer's decision to sell the Fair Trade product is not based on the percentage of consumers who are willing to pay for it, but on how much the Fair Trade likers are willing to pay.

Notes: US and state governments have subsidized ethanol since 1978, and the rationale for these subsidies has varied over time from supporting farm prices and income, to environmental quality, and more recently to energy security and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The recent boom in ethanol investment and production can be considered as an unintended consequence of an ethanol subsidy keyed to $20 crude oil and fixed at 51 cents per gallon combined with oil surging to $70/bbl. Thus, in the 2005-07 period, ethanol was extremely profitable inducing substantial new investment. For the future, different political action groups and political figures propose renewable fuels targets or standards ranging from 35 to 100 billion gallons per year. To achieve anything like these levels, it is likely that the current policy set will need to be reconsidered. In addition to the current policy, this paper considers using a subsidy tied to the energy security gains and greenhouse gas emission reductions provided by renewable fuels, subsidies targeted specifically at cellulose ethanol, and different versions of a renewable fuel standard such as the one passed by the US Senate. It is clear that we must develop a better understanding of the consequences of these alternative policy pathways.

Notes: The EU has set ambitious targets to raise the share of renewable energies, particularly biofuels. With an increasingly controversial public debate and more scientific evidence about the downsites of biofuels, recently the European Unions biofuel targets have been bound to the condition that they have to be produced sustainable. Therefore the European Commission is currently developing sustainability criteria for biofuels. Establishing certification schemes is a possible strategy to ensure that bioenergy crops are produced in a sustainable manner. However, many questions with regard to the design and implementation of sustainability criteria and certification schemes remain unsolved. This article discusses the role that bioenergy plays in the European policy context and the approach the EU is currently following in order to ensure the sustainability of biofuels. It addresses the limits of the chosen approach, concluding that certification schemes can not serve as the only safeguard for sustainable bioenergy, but need to be complemented by other tools and policies.

Notes: Research indicates that large biorefineries capable of handling 5000-10000MT of biomass per day are necessary to achieve process economies. However, such large biorefineries also entail increased costs of biomass transportation and storage, high transaction costs of contracting with a large number of farmers for biomass supply, potential market power issues, and local environmental impacts. We propose a network of regional biomass preprocessing centers (RBPC) that form an extended biomass supply chain feeding into a biorefinery, as a way to address these issues. The RBPC, in its mature form, is conceptualized as a flexible processing facility capable of pre-treating and converting biomass into appropriate feedstocks for a variety of final products such as fuels, chemicals, electricity, and animal feeds. We evaluate the technical and financial feasibility of a simple RBPC that uses ammonia fiber expansion pretreatment process and produces animal feed along with biorefinery feedstock.

Notes: We present a novel, cost efficient two-phase design for predictive clinical gene expression studies: early marker panel determination (EMPD). In Phase-1, genome-wide microarrays are used only for a small number of individual patient samples. From this Phase-1 data a panel of marker genes is derived. In Phase-2, the expression values of these marker panel genes are measured for a large group of patients and a predictive classification model is learned from this data. Phase-2 does not require the use of expensive whole genome microarrays, thus making EMPD a cost efficient alternative for current trials. The expected performance loss of EMPD is compared to designs which use genome-wide microarrays for all patients. We also examine the trade-off between the number of patients included in Phase-1 and the number of marker genes required in Phase-2. By analysis of five published datasets we find that in Phase-1 already 16 patients per group are sufficient to determine a suitable marker panel of 10 genes, and that this early decision compromises the final performance only marginally.

Notes: Many alternative data-adaptive algorithms can be used to learn a predictor based on observed data. Examples of such learners include decision trees, neural networks, support vector regression, least angle regression, logic regression, and the Deletion/Substitution/Addition algorithm. The optimal learner for prediction will vary depending on the underlying data-generating distribution. In this article we introduce the "super learner", a prediction algorithm that applies any set of candidate learners and uses cross-validation to select between them. Theory shows that asymptotically the super learner performs essentially as well as or better than any of the candidate learners. In this article we present the theory behind the super learner, and illustrate its performance using simulations. We further apply the super learner to a data example, in which we predict the phenotypic antiretroviral susceptibility of HIV based on viral genotype. Specifically, we apply the super learner to predict susceptibility to a specific protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, using a set of database-derived non-polymorphic treatment-selected mutations.

Notes: Microarrays are a tool for measuring the expression levels of a large number of genes simultaneously. In the microarray experiment, however, many undesirable systematic variations are observed. Correct identification and removal of these variations is essential to allow the comparison of expression levels across experiments. We describe the use of linear mixed models for the normalization of two-color spotted microarrays for various sources of variation including printtip variation. Normalization with linear mixed models provides a parametric model of which results compare favorably to intensity dependent normalization LOWESS methods. We illustrate the use of this technique on two datasets. The first dataset contains 24 arrays, each with approximately 600 genes, replicated 3 times per array. A second dataset, coming from the apo AI experiment, was used to further illustrate the methods. Finally, a simulation study was done to compare between methods.

Notes: Multi-color optical mapping is a new technique being developed to obtain detailed physical maps (indicating relative positions of various recognition sites) of DNA molecules. We consider a study design in which the data consist of noisy observations of multiple copies of a DNA molecule marked with colors at recognition sites. The primary goal is to estimate a physical map. A secondary goal is to estimate error rates associated with the experiment, which are potentially useful for analysis and refinement of the biochemical steps in the mapping procedure. We propose statistical models for various sources of error and use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to construct a physical map and estimate error rates. To overcome difficulties arising in the maximization process, a latent-variable Markov chain version of the model is proposed, and the EM algorithm is used for maximization. In addition, a simulated annealing procedure is applied to maximize the profile likelihood over the discrete space of sequences of colors. We apply the methods to simulated data on the bacteriophage lambda genome.

Notes: The objective of the present paper is to develop a truly functional Bayesian method specifically designed for time series microarray data. The method allows one to identify differentially expressed genes in a time-course microarray experiment, to rank them and to estimate their expression profiles. Each gene expression profile is modeled as an expansion over some orthonormal basis, where the coefficients and the number of basis functions are estimated from the data. The proposed procedure deals successfully with various technical difficulties that arise in typical microarray experiments such as a small number of observations, non-uniform sampling intervals and missing or replicated data. The procedure allows one to account for various types of errors and offers a good compromise between nonparametric techniques and techniques based on normality assumptions. In addition, all evaluations are performed using analytic expressions, so the entire procedure requires very small computational effort. The procedure is studied using both simulated and real data, and is compared with competitive recent approaches. Finally, the procedure is applied to a case study of a human breast cancer cell line stimulated with estrogen. We succeeded in finding new significant genes that were not marked in an earlier work on the same dataset.

Notes: We describe a general model for pairwise microsatellite allele matching probabilities. The model can be used for analysis of population substructure, and is particularly focused on relating genetic correlation to measurable covariates. The approach is intended for cases when the existence of subpopulations is uncertain and a priori assignment of samples to hypothesized subpopulations is difficult. Such a situation arises, for example, with western Arctic bowhead whales, where genetic samples are available only from a possibly mixed migratory assemblage. We estimate genetic structure associated with spatial, temporal, or other variables that may confound the detection of population structure. In the bowhead case, the model permits detection of genetic patterns associated with a temporally pulsed multi-population assemblage in the annual migration. Hypothesis tests for population substructure and for covariate effects can be carried out using permutation methods. Simulated and real examples illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of the approach and enable comparisons with other familiar approaches. Analysis of the bowhead data finds no evidence for two temporally pulsed subpopulations using the best available data, although a significant pattern found by other researchers using preliminary data is also confirmed here. Code in the R language is available from www.stat.colostate.edu/~geof/gammmp.html.

Notes: Maximum Likelihood (ML) is used as a standard method for estimating divergence times in phylogenetic trees. The method is consistent and hence the precision can be improved by analyzing longer sequences. In this paper we show that the precision can be improved also by including more taxa to the existing tree. It is a theoretical study, complemented with simulations, showing that the gain in precision is faster with increasing sequence length than with increasing number of taxa.We further compare the results of estimating divergence times using Maximum Likelihood with the much faster and less complex estimation method of Mean Path Length (MPL), which works with the evolution model of Jukes-Cantor (1969). It is shown that MPL is as good as ML in estimating divergence times of nodes that are located near the root in the tree, but ML is better in estimating the divergence times of nodes lower down.

Notes: The paper examines under what conditions vertically differentiated duopolists engage in first-degree price discrimination. Each firm decides on a pricing regime at a first stage and sets prices at a second stage. The paper shows that when unit cost is an increasing and convex function of quality, the discriminatory regime is the unique subgame-perfect equilibrium of such two-stage game. In contrast to the case of horizontal differentiation, the discriminatory equilibrium is not necessarily Pareto-dominated by a bilateral commitment to uniform pricing. Also, the quality choices of perfectly discriminating duopolists are welfare maximizing. The paper explains why a threat of entry may elicit price discrimination by an incumbent monopolist.

Notes: In many capacity-intensive industries (e.g. electricity, bandwidth), exchanges allow firms, including competitors, to buy and sell wholesale capacity before selling on the retail market. Capacity exchanges allow firms to smooth demand shocks, but do they also facilitate tacit collusion to limit capacity investment? This paper models investment and exchange in a one-shot game and in a repeated game with tacit collusion. It finds that the presence of the exchange does not reduce total capacity investment, and thus does not raise consumer prices. In fact, the exchange may make it more difficult to sustain tacit collusion.

Notes: In a two-stage Cournot oligopoly cost minimization sometimes calls for ex ante identical firms to invest in diverse technologies. It is an implication of this result that it might be optimal to treat identical duopolistic polluters asymmetrically. We discuss the efficiency properties of a per-unit tax and a tradable permit when ex ante identical duopolists should ideally invest asymmetrically. It is argued that a tradable permit is efficient in promoting differential investments.

Notes: Ability of managers and other nonproduction professionals is key for the productivity of firms. Hence, the assignment of heterogeneous nonproduction workers across firms determines the distribution of productivity. In turn, the transmission of productivity differences into profit differences -- resulting from product market competition -- determines firms' willingness to pay for higher managerial skills. This paper explores the equilibrium assignment of nonproduction workers across ex ante identical firms which results from this interaction between product market and the market for nonproduction skills. The analysis suggests that, typically, large and productive firms coexist with small, low-productivity firms. Consistent with empirical evidence, a skewed distribution of firm size tends to arise. Moreover, the model predicts a positive relationship of firm size to productivity, manager quality, and manager remuneration. Finally, according to comparative-static analysis, higher intensity of product market competition can account for increases in the compensation at the top of the wage distribution.

Notes: In competitive economies with private firm ownership, incomplete markets, and firm shareholders changing over time, several firm objectives have been proposed. Some are useful to understand efficiency of equilibria, and others are explicitly consistent with majority shareholder control or collective choice rules, but it is not always clear if versions of each type are consistent with versions of the other type. This paper shows that ex-post, value maximizing rules, (including those proposed by Dreze, and Grossman and Hart,) are consistent with shareholder preferences in such economies; that is, along the equilibrium path, in every period and state of the world, every coalition of a firm's shareholders in that period and state approves a value maximizing production plan. This result applies to cases when shareholders within a firm and across firms can form coalitions, and when stock trading can be ex-dividend or cum-dividend, and with a combination of both. This result does not resolve the problem of inefficiency of stock market equilibria, or that of ex ante disagreement among shareholders. It can help understand when firm objectives with some desirable properties are consistent with a particular version of shareholder control, and it provides a stability criterion (in terms of robustness to shareholder coalitions) for organizing productive resources in such economies.

Notes: In this paper we introduce product demand uncertainty in a mixed oligopoly model and reexamine the nature of sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) when firms decide in the first stage whether to lead or follow in the subsequent quantity-setting game. In the non-stochastic setting, Pal (1998) demonstrated that when a public firm competes with a domestic private firm, multiple equilibria exist but the efficient equilibrium outcome is for the public firm to follow. Matsumura (2003a) proved that when the public firm's rival is a foreign private firm, leadership of the public firm is both efficient as well as SPN equilibrium. Our stochastic model shows that when the leader must commit to output before the resolution of uncertainty, multiple SPNE is possible. Whether the equilibrium outcome is public or private leadership hinges upon the degree of privatization and market volatility. More importantly, Pareto-inefficient simultaneous production is a likely SPNE. Our results are driven by the fact that the resolution of uncertainty enhances the profits of the follower firm in a manner that is well known in real option theory.

Notes: This paper presents a model of opportunistic behaviour in decentralized economic exchange and considers the impact of inadequate institutional framework of formal contract enforcement on economic performance. It is shown that (i) when the number of cheating traders is sufficiently large, inadequate institutions result in a loss of decentralized trading contracts, (ii) an adequate institutional framework, while being necessary for the attainment of a Pareto optimal outcome, may not be sufficient if traders perceive it as inadequate; and (iii) sufficiently good formal enforcement provisions help deter contractual breach in environments with corrupt and powerful enforcers.

Notes: This paper develops a model of competition among multiproduct retailers that is consistent with observed pricing regularities, such as the facts that virtually all products have large mass points in their price distributions and that most deviations fall below these mass points. The basis of the model is that, when consumers prefer to buy a bundle of goods from the same retailer, a given discount on any one good in the bundle will have a similar effect on consumers' likelihood of visiting that retailer. Consequently, discounts on goods sold by a retailer are substitute instruments for attracting customers, and factors that influence one goods' price will also affect other goods' prices. Hence, if intertemporal price changes are a means of price discriminating (as the literature suggests), then the impact of these changes will be reflected in the prices of many goods - including those for which discrimination is infeasible.

Notes: We analyze credit market equilibrium when banks screen loan applicants. When banks have a convex cost function of screening, a pure strategy equilibrium exists where banks optimally set interest rates at the same level as their competitors. This result complements Broecker's (1990) analysis, where he demonstrates that no pure strategy equilibrium exists when banks have zero screening costs. In our set up we show that interest rate on loans are largely independent of marginal costs, a feature consistent with the extant empirical evidence. In equilibrium, banks make positive profits in our model in spite of the threat of entry by inactive banks. Moreover, an increase in the number of active banks increases credit risk and so does not improve credit market efficiency: this point has important regulatory implications. Finally, we extend our analysis to the case where banks have differing screening abilities.

Notes: This paper analyses comparative statics for first price auctions and all pay auctions with independent private values. In all pay auctions, bidders with low values will respond to a stochastically higher (in the sense of likelihood ratio dominance) distribution of types by playing less aggressively while high value bidders bid more. In the first price auction, a similar change results in all types playing more aggressively. Furthermore, we show that a decrease in dispersion of values, in the sense of a refinement of second order stochastic dominance, although also associated with an increase in competitiveness, may in addition result in less aggressive play by bidders with high values in both auction forms. We also find similar considerations in an oligopoly game with incomplete information: stochastically lower costs can lead to higher prices.

Notes: By combining a theory of herding behavior with the phenomenon of availability heuristic, this paper shows that non-informative advertisements can affect people's choices by influencing their perception of product quality. We present a model in which people can learn about product quality by observing the choices of others. Consumers are, however, not able to fully distinguish between the observations of real people and fictitious characters in advertisements. Even if a person is aware of this limitation and updates his beliefs accordingly, it is still rational for him to choose the product he has observed most often. In equilibrium the most observed product is always most likely to be of the highest quality. The analysis has important policy implications.

Notes: The paper investigates the impact of examinations on incentives and decision-making in bureaucracies and similar organisations. When one amongst a group of bureaucrats can be appointed to give policy advice whose outcome affects all parties, with advisory ability increasing in personal effort, a free-riding problem is generated if preferences are aligned, leading to an ex ante inefficiency. Free-riding may be mitigated by an examination with a pass-mark, i.e., a minimum ability requirement as a necessary criterion for advisory appointment. By collectively punishing all experts when maximal ability is low, it raises private incentive to enhance ability, and improves decision quality.

Notes: We study two-player all-pay contests in which there is a positive probability of a tied outcome. We show that the players' efforts in equilibrium do not depend on the expected prize in the case of a tie given that this prize is smaller than the prize for winning. The implications of this result are twofold. First, in symmetric one-stage contests, the designer who wishes to maximize the expected total effort should not award a prize in the case of a tie which is larger than one-third of the prize for winning. Second, in multi-stage contests, the designer should not limit the number of stages (tie-breaks) but should allow the contest to continue until a winner is decided.

Notes: In two-sided matching markets, stable mechanisms are vulnerable to various kinds of manipulations. This paper investigates conditions for the student-optimal stable mechanism (SOSM) and the college-optimal stable mechanism (COSM) to be immune to manipulations via capacities and pre-arranged matches. For SOSM, we find that strongly monotone preferences in populations and weakly maximin preferences are the maximal domains of college preferences that guarantee immunity to manipulations via capacities and pre-arranged matches, respectively. In contrast, COSM is susceptible to both manipulations whenever colleges have multiple positions.

Notes: The paper studies the concept of ``ex post equilibrium" that has recently become popular in literature on auctions, mechanism design and implementation. We ask how one should define ex post equilibrium if one wants to consider extensive games, such as dynamic auctions, and if one wants to include sequential rationality in the equilibrium definition. As it turns out, this raises some conceptual questions that are not present in the static setting. We are lead to introduce three different definitions - all variations of what we call ``information-invariant equilibrium." One of these three definitions is equivalent to ``ex post equilibrium." In static games the three definitions coincide. In extensive games they do not - if we impose sequential rationality. Our main purpose is to make a methodological contribution to game theory, but we illustrate the relevance of this contribution by applying our concepts to several auction games.

Notes: This article looks at the use of privatization to solve urban poverty under the auspices of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals and the United States Agency for International Development's Urban Strategy. It questions whether the urban poor should be asked to pay their way out of poverty.

Notes: Genetic engineering is one of the most advanced technologies in the world and can bring vast profits to developers by patenting resultant achievements. But genetic engineering must be based on original genetic materials. For obtaining such materials, developers travel around the world, especially to genetically rich areas in developing countries, to prospect for valuable genetic resources and bring back for research and patent derivate products. However a lot of disputes have arisen from such patents, such as the Enola patent dispute on Mexican traditional crop mayocoba bean and the patent dispute on sacred plant Ayahuasca between people and one U.S. Company. Indigenous people, who live in the origin areas of genetic resources for a long history, have established traditional and cultural genuine relation with some living species. These disputes revealed that some genetic engineering exploitation and patents based on certain species may be severely offensive against indigenous people's spiritual, religious, or cultural traditions. Although genetic engineering achievements' patentability has been argued for a long time, the TRIPs Agreement requirement and the world's legislation trend, either in developed countries such as the U.S., European Union or in developing countries such as China, have indicated that genetic engineering products and processes are legitimately patentable. But some loophole exists in the patent acquisition procedure of current legislation, which allows such offensive patents to be granted. To prevent such offensive patents, one prior consents solution is proposed in this article, which requires genetic engineering developers to obtain prior consents from origin countries of genetic resources before they exploit these resources and patent derivate achievements. This solution is based on the Convention on Biological Diversity, which affirmed country's sovereignty over their genetic resources and allowed countries to regulate and manage genetic resources in their territory. The Convention on Biological Diversity does not conflict with IPR legislation, in particular the TRIPs Agreement and the obligations under both treaties should be respected. The implementation of this proposed solution is based on the establishment of national genetic resources authority, which generally manages its country's genetic resources and works as indigenous people's representative with the authorization of state government. This solution should be implemented in three levels: domestically, transnationally and globally. Therefore, offensive genetic engineering patents could be prevented both by such authority's examination and granting prior consents before developers' access to genetic resources and by national patent administration's examination on prior consents proof from origin country's authority before granting patents.

Notes: As the result of a series of U.S. Supreme Court decisions over the last several years, the U.S. has entered a period of chaos sentencing in criminal cases. For nearly twenty years, reformers of sentencing had tried to get states to adopt a sentencing guidelines model that helped structure sentencing decisions and that protected defendants from the sort of arbitrary sentencing power that was possible in many U.S. jurisdictions where judges were given broad sentencing discretion with few limits on their power. The Court's recent decisions, however, have dealt a major blow to sentencing guidelines and the result is uncertainty over issues even as basic as who should sentence - the judge or a jury.This Article explains how sentencing works in the U.S. and then analyses the recent Supreme Court decisions that have had the rather disturbing consequence of favoring those jurisdictions that leave sentencing within the broad discretion of the trial judge with no significant limits on that power.In the last section of the Article, the author shows that the intellectual confusion that plagues sentencing in the U.S. stems from the fact that the U.S. has difficulty recognizing that sentencing in the U.S. has traditionally been built on a model that is strongly inquisitorial, vesting tremendous power in the trial judge. This model does not integrate well with a trial system which is at the same time extremely adversarial. The Article concludes that any reform of sentencing that fails to understand the clash of values between a trial system that puts tremendous power in the hands of the parties and a sentencing system that puts similar power in the hands of a single judge is likely to be ineffective and counterproductive.

Notes: This article aims at mapping out the existing relationships across three levels of decision making, framing an hypothesis on the functioning of the system. Inter-institutional relationships across different levels of decision making in the area of food safety regulation can be compared to a sandglass the two poles of which are constituted by, respectively, the international and the national legal orders, with the European one standing in the middle. At each turning of the sandglass, the sand flow is "filtered" through European law. This suggests that European institutions are actively engaged in both the bottom-up and the top-down processes of implementation. The paper suggests a model for approaching the trends driving European policies in the area of food safety regulation in both international and national arenas.

Notes: The Kyoto Protocol not only establishes specific deadlines and quantitative objectives for the reduction of greenhouse gases, but also provides for so called ``flexibility mechanisms". Among the different mechanisms envisaged in the Protocol, the one destined to play a central role is ``emissions trading". For national regulators, global rules provide, at the same time, limits and opportunities. The limits are established by means of binding pollution-reduction objectives; the opportunities stem from the incentives to cooperation among different actors, provided for by the new rules. As some scholars observed, ``there is a redrawing of the borders of the public sphere": public entities accomplish some tasks, but leave other activities to private entities. The pollution market plays a central role, since it gathers, in the same place, different players, who share a common goal - the achievement of agreed global environmental outcomes - that can be attained through regulation. In this context, the paper analyses three main aspects: firstly, the choice of market-based instruments, that mark the shift from ``command and control" to a new type of regulation; secondly, the roles and tasks of the different actors involved (public powers and private entities) and the relationships among them, both within national boundaries and in the new global market; thirdly, the controls and sanctions provided for in order to create an integrated system of environmental protection. The Author argues that the degree of effectiveness of the measures analysed in the paper depends upon an organized flow of information as well as on clear mechanisms of accountability, both at national and international levels.

Notes: The recent judiciary reform in Brazil (Constitutional Amendment 45) added Paragraph (3) to Article 5 of the Brazilian Constitution. The new clause establishes that international human rights treaties if approved by three fifths of the members of the Parliament, in two readings in both Houses (Chamber of Deputies and Federal Senate), are to be incorporated into the Brazilian legal order as constitutional amendments. Contrary to what a significant number of Brazilian legal circles have asserted, the author argues that the judiciary reform, at least in regard to the matter of the status of human rights treaties in Brazilian domestic law, represents a backslide from the normative point of view when compared to what was originally established by the authors of the 1988 Constitution. This is so, because, from now on, rights established in treaties cannot be considered as equal in rank to rights originally established in the 1988 Brazilian Constitution, by the Constituent Power, but as rights originated from the Amending Power - a difference with substantial consequences from the Brazilian constitutional law point of view. Some controversial topics originated from the new Article 5 (3) are analyzed in order to stress the problems Brazilian legal profession will have to face to provide a stronger sense of openness of Brazilian law to the International Law of Human Rights.

Notes: Nous avons, dans ce présent texte, esquissé les grandes lignes d'une procédure d'action, locale, nationale et mondiale, à  laquelle les organisations de la société civile peuvent avoir recours pour mieux faire entendre leurs voix en vue de mieux peser sur les structures politques des États et celles économiques des multinationales.

Notes: This paper develops a model of terrorist activity and behavior. A terrorist organization chooses the size and the number of attacks. The defending state chooses the level of security-deterrence measures. The equilibrium sequence is such that the Organization moves first, followed by the State. A defensive policy such as an innovation in security-deterrence technology tends to reduce the size of attacks but increase their number, while an offensive policy, lowering the total "strike" or "output" potential of a terrorist organization, has opposite effects. Both policies reduce the expected damage from terror. An individual's decision to become a terrorist or a financier is also modeled, leading to endogenous supplies of terrorists and funds. The effects of terrorist-flushing measures, provisions to curb the flow of funds to terrorist organizations and income-enhancing policies are evaluated by taking into account their "supply-side" effects.

Notes: This paper shows that in a contest with the "Tullock" forms of contest success function, an increase in the number of contestants always reduces individual effort. However, when the outcome of the contest is governed by a noisy function of effort, then individual effort could either increase or decrease following an increase in the number of contestants, depending on whether the density function of the shock is upward or downward sloping.

Notes: This paper investigates whether monetary and exchange rate policies are important for the success of major fiscal adjustments. We assess their role controlling for other determinants of success identified in the literature, including the size and composition of the deficit cut, the level of public debt and the rate of economic growth. We find that successful adjustments are preceded by exchange rate depreciations. Empirically, a depreciation of the nominal effective exchange of one standard deviation of the sample mean in the two years before an adjustment increases the probability of success by 2 percentage points. The size and composition of the deficit cut are also important determinants of success: an increase of one standard deviation of the sample mean raises the probability of success by 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. One implication of our results is that it may be more difficult to attain persistent fiscal adjustments within the Economic and Monetary Union of Europe, since the adoption of a single currency rules out the use of exchange rate policy among member countries.

Notes: This study examines the relationship between growth in manufacturing employment and youth outcomes in Indonesia from 1985 to 1995, a time of rapid industrialization. In comparison with cross-national studies, this study has a larger sample size of regions, defines data more consistently, and conducts better checks for causality and specification. We also distinguish between the effects of manufacturing employment in the region and in the household and explore potential causal mechanisms underlying the observed correlations. Overall, manufacturing employment in the region modestly increases enrollment and decreases labor force participation for male and female young teens. At the household level, employment of adult females in manufacturing is associated with lower enrollment and higher labor force participation for young women relative to young men.

Notes: I show that in a Ramsey growth model, where the production function is of fixed proportions type and the utility function is CRRA, the saddle path is a closed form expression. The closed form expression greatly simplifies the analysis of how the labor productivity growth, the intertemporal rate of substitution, and the discount factor affect investments and growth.

Notes: Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and the degree of inflation persistence in a simple macroeconomic model that incorporates rational learning by the central bank as well as market participants. Two conflicting motives drive the optimal policy. In the static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the policymaker to move more cautiously than she would if she knew the true parameters. In the dynamic version, uncertainty also motivates an element of experimentation in policy. The optimal policy, which balances the cautionary and activist motives, is computed using empirical estimates of Phillips curve uncertainty. Experimentation matters quantitatively for moderate to high degrees of uncertainty. Nevertheless, gradual inflation stabilization typically remains optimal, that is, the optimal policy response to inflation is less aggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur when uncertainty is very high and inflation close to target.

Notes: In this paper we discuss fiscal and monetary policy issues facing heavily-indebted poor countries (HIPCs) who receive debt reduction via the enhanced HIPC initiative. This debt relief program is distinguished from previous ones by its conditionality: freed resources must be used for poverty reduction. We argue that (i) this conditionality severely limits the extent to which the initiative provides significant debt relief; (ii) depending on the response of monetary policy to an increase in social spending there could be a short-run increase in inflation in HIPC countries and (iii) the keys to long-run fiscal sustainability in the HIPCs are significant fiscal reforms by their governments, and the effectiveness of their poverty reduction programs in raising growth.

Notes: Search-theory has become the main paradigm for the micro-foundation of money. But no comprehensive business cycle analysis has been undertaken yet with a search-based monetary model. This paper extends the model with divisible goods and divisible money of Shi (JET, 1998) to allow for capital formation, analyses the monetary propagation mechanism and contrasts the model's implications with US business cycle stylized facts. The propagation mechanism based on a feedback between increased search intensity and depleted inventories only survives in the presence of non-negligible capital adjustment costs. With intermediate adjustment costs the model is able to replicate fairly well the volatility and cross-correlation with output of key US time series, including sales and inventory investment.

Notes: In recent decades there has been a worldwide shift toward market-oriented economic policies, sometimes termed 'neoliberalism'. In the policy arena this trend has been most apparent in the widespread move toward privatization and deregulation. And in the academic world there has been increased respect shown to free market ideologies, even to policy views that would once have been regarded as impractical. Surprisingly, monetary policy is one area that has been relatively unaffected by the neoliberal revolution. Not only have governments retained a monopoly on fiat money, but even some free market ideologues have been skeptical of proposals for laissez-faire monetary regimes. This paper will show that market forces can greatly improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. I will argue that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should do no more than set the goals of monetary policy. Sumner (1989, 1995) and Dowd (1994) argued that the creative use of prediction markets for goal variables might allow central banks to more accurately target variables such as inflation. I will briefly review the literature on policy futures markets, examine Bernanke and Woodford's (1997) critique of policies that "target the forecast", and then suggest some improvements in previous reform proposals. More importantly, I show that policy future markets can address some of the key weaknesses of orthodox macroeconomic theory and policy, particularly the lack of consensus over structural models. Under this sort of policy regime, open market operations would reflect the views of not merely 12 individuals, but rather the consensus opinion of all those who choose to engage in open market operations. Even an issue as basic as the optimal monetary instrument would no longer be determined by the monetary authority, instead, each individual participant in the policymaking process would choose their own policy indicator. I will also show that a universal FOMC can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy even if the average level of decision-making skills on the expanded FOMC is inferior to the average skill level of the current 12 members.

Notes: This paper revisits the issue of what factors produced the macroeconomic policies that led to the Great Inflation of the 1970s. I emphasize that a satisfactory explanation should satisfy two important criteria. First, it must be consistent with the record of views on the economy, manifested in statements by policymakers and prominent financial commentators. Second, it should work for countries beside the United States. I show that the monetary policy neglect hypothesis--which claims that policymakers took a nonmonetary view of the inflation process--meets these criteria. Other explanations of the Great Inflation are ruled out, with one exception (the output gap mismeasurement hypothesis), which supplements the monetary policy neglect hypothesis. The study covers the Great Inflation in both the United Kingdom and the United States, with policymakers' views on the economy documented using 1970s news reports.

Notes: There is ample evidence that the frequency of price adjustments differs substantially across sectors. This paper introduces sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness into an otherwise standard sticky price model to study how it affects the dynamics of monetary economies. Qualitative and quantitative results from a realistic calibration for the U.S. economy show that monetary shocks tend to have larger and more persistent real effects in heterogeneous economies, when compared to identical-firms economies with similar degrees of nominal and real rigidity. In the presence of strategic complementarities in price setting, sectors with lower frequencies of price adjustment have a disproportionate effect on the aggregate price level. In order to better approximate the dynamics of the calibrated heterogeneous economy, an identical-firms model requires a frequency of price changes that is up to three times lower than the average of the heterogeneous economy.

Notes: This paper deals with second-best pollution taxation by investigating allocations instead of the corresponding tax rates. Assuming certain restrictions on utility and that the marginal revenue from environmental taxation is positive, it is shown that environmental quality is higher in second best where only distortionary taxes are used to finance public expenditures than in the first-best optimum where lump-sum taxes are available.

Notes: Some commentators believe that slotting allowances enhance social welfare by providing retailers with an efficient way to allocate scarce retail shelf space. The claim is that, by offering their shelf space to the highest bidders, retailers act as agents for consumers and ensure that only the most socially desirable products obtain distribution. I show that this claim does not hold in a model in which a dominant firm and competitive fringe compete for retailer patronage. By using slotting allowances to bid up the price of shelf space, the dominant firm can sometimes exclude the competitive fringe even when welfare would be higher if the fringe obtained distribution.

Notes: Empirical researchers commonly invoke instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. This paper considers what can be learned under two specific violations of those assumptions: contaminated and corrupted data. Either of these violations prevents point identification, but sharp bounds of the treatment effect remain feasible. In an applied example, random miscarriages are an IV for women's age at first birth. However, the inability to separate random miscarriages from behaviorally induced miscarriages (those caused by smoking and drinking) results in a contaminated sample. Furthermore, censored child outcomes produce a corrupted sample. Despite these limitations, the bounds demonstrate that delaying the age at first birth for the current population of non-black teenage mothers reduces their first-born child's well-being.

Notes: Critics of stated preference methods argue that hypothetical bias precludes survey techniques from providing reliable economic values for non-market goods and services, rendering estimation of the total economic benefits of public programs fruitless. This paper explores a relatively new methodology to obtain the total value of non-market goods and services--choice experiments--which conveniently provide information on the purchase decision as well as the characteristic value vector. The empirical work revolves around examining behavior in two very different field settings. In the first field study, we explore hypothetical bias in the purchase decision by eliciting contributions for a threshold public good in an actual capital campaign. To extend the analysis a level deeper, in a second field experiment we examine both the purchase decision and the marginal value vector via inspection of consumption decisions in an actual marketplace. In support of the new valuation design, both field experiments provide some evidence that hypothetical choice experiments combined with "cheap talk" can yield credible estimates of the purchase decision. Furthermore, we find no evidence of hypothetical bias when estimating marginal attribute values. Yet, we do find that the "cheap talk" component might induce internal inconsistency of subjects' preferences in the choice experiment.

Notes: This paper studies optimal linear taxation in a general equilibrium model with Cournot oligopoly. The main result is the following. With imperfect competition the tendency toward "inverse elasticities" tax rules will be weakened and may even be reversed. That is, an upward sloping relationship may exist between an industry's optimal tax rate and its own-price elasticity of demand, unlike the perfectly competitive case.

Notes: Using data from American magazines, we explore the relationship between newsstand and subscription prices and magazine characteristics. In particular, we distinguish between magazines that provide benefits in the future (investment magazines) versus those that are simply fun to read now (leisure magazines). A consumer with a present bias at the newsstand discounts the future payoff of the investment good but fully values the leisure good. This difference does not exist for subscriptions. Thus, the ratio of the subscription to newsstand willingness to pay for a magazine should differ between investment and leisure goods. We find that for magazines whose payoff is in the future, subscriptions are relatively more costly, ceteris paribus. This finding suggests that publishers reflect the present bias preferences of consumers in their price setting behavior.

Notes: If communication involves some transactions cost to both sender and recipient, what policy ensures that correct messages -- those with positive social surplus -- get sent? Filters block messages that harm recipients but benefit senders by more than transactions costs. Taxes can block positive value messages, and allow harmful messages through. In contrast, we propose an ``Attention Bond,'' allowing recipients to define a price that senders must risk to deliver the initial message.The underlying problem is first-contact information asymmetry with negative externalities. Uninformed senders waste recipient attention through message pollution. Requiring attention bonds creates an attention market, effectively applying the Coase Theorem to price this scarce resource. In this market, screening mechanisms shift the burden of message classification from recipients to senders, who know message content. Price signals can also facilitate decentralized two-sided matching. In certain limited cases, this leads to greater welfare than use of even ``perfect'' filters.

Notes: Our paper focuses on the role of endogenous technology and technology spillovers in explaining cross country differences in pollution and the pollution haven effect of international trade. In our North-South trade model, technology is endogenously developed by the North and imitated by the South. Environmental regulators choose national environmental policies by trading off the income gains and the disutility from a rise in pollution. Differences in environmental stringency are entirely driven by differences in investment opportunities and distortions that follow from the difference in intellectual property rights protection. We show that without goods trade and in the absence of technology subsidies, the North imposes more stringent environmental regulation than the South. When opening up to trade, the South experiences a rise in prices for pollution-intensive goods and tends to raise pollution as in a standard trade model. Induced technical change, however, may reverse this pollution haven effect.

Notes: Bank regulators are required to consider a bank's record of providing credit to low- and moderate-income neighborhoods and individuals in approving bank applications for mergers and acquisitions. We provide evidence that banks self-regulate by strategically increasing their lending to these populations prior to acquiring another institution in anticipation of the regulatory and public scrutiny associated with a merger or acquisition. In particular, we show that the higher the percentage of the institution's mortgage originations in a given year that are directed to low- and moderate-income individuals or neighborhoods, the greater the probability that the institution will acquire another bank in the following year. Further investigation bolsters the view that this correlation is due to banks' anticipation of the public and regulatory scrutiny during the merger review process: (1) the effect cannot be explained by regulator behavior or by unobserved bank characteristics; (2) the relationship is observed for acquiring banks, which are the primary focus of scrutiny, but not for the banks that are being acquired; (3) the positive effect increases over the 1991 to 1995 time frame, a period when scrutiny of an institution's community lending record increased; and (4) the effect is largest for big banks, who face particularly intense scrutiny.

Notes: The "Pollution Haven Hypothesis" (PHH) is one of the most hotly debated predictions in all of international economics. This paper explains the theory behind the PHH by dividing the hypothesis into a series of logical steps linking assumptions on exogenous country characteristics to predictions on trade flows and pollution levels. I then discuss recent theoretical and empirical contributions investigating the PHH to show how each contribution either questions the logical inevitability, or the empirical significance of one or more steps in the pollution haven chain of logic. Suggestions for future research are also provided.

Notes: Some policy makers justify cigarette taxes by arguing that they actually make smokers better off. This argument has been hard to evaluate because behavioral data, such as that showing reduced cigarette consumption following a tax hike, cannot resolve the issue of whether smokers are made better off by the reduction or not. In this paper, we directly assess the effect of cigarette taxes on well-being, using subjective well-being data. We model the differential impact of excise taxes on those with a propensity to smoke, relative to others, in order to control for omitted correlations between happiness and excise taxation. Using US data on happiness and state-level changes in excise taxes, we find consistent evidence that excise taxes make those who have a propensity to smoke happier. To assess robustness, we repeat the exercise using Canadian data, which has independent information on well-being and also much larger tax changes, and find the exact same pattern. Moreover, these impacts are present for cigarette excise taxes, but not for other excise taxes. These results suggest that the welfare effects of cigarette taxation are far more complex than simple rational economic models might predict.

Notes: Choosing a type of education is one of the largest financial decisions we make. Educational investment differs from other types of investment in that it is indivisible and non-tradable. These differences lead agents to demand a premium to enter careers with more idiosyncratic risk. Since the required premium will be smaller for wealthier agents, they will tend to enter careers with more idiosyncratic risk.After developing a model of career choice, we use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to estimate the risk associated with different careers. We find education, health care, and engineering careers to have relatively safe streams of labor income; business, sales, and entertainment careers are more risky.By choosing a college major, many students make a costly human capital investment that allows them to enter a specific career. To examine the link between wealth and college major choice implied by the model, we use data on choice of college major from the National Postsecondary Student Aid Survey (NPSAS). Controlling for observable measures of ability and background, we find evidence that wealthier students tend to choose riskier careers, particularly business.

Notes: Pairs of carefully-matched, written applications were made to advertised job vacancies in England to test for sexual discrimination in hiring. Two standard résumés were constructed for each occupation to control for all relevant supply-side variables, such as qualifications, experience and age. Consequently any differential response recorded can be attributed to demand-side discrimination. Statistically significant discrimination against men was found in the `female occupation' - secretary, and against women in the `male occupation' - engineer. Statistically significant, and unprecedented, discrimination against men was found in two `mixed occupations' - trainee chartered accountant and computer analyst programmer.

Notes: Many firms divide the price a consumer pays for a good into two pieces---the price for the item itself and the price for shipping and handling. With fully rational customers, the exact division between the two prices is irrelevant---only the total price matters. We test this hypothesis by selling matched pairs of CDs and Xbox games in a series of field experiments on eBay. In theory, the ending auction price should vary inversely with the shipping charge to leave the total price paid constant. Contrary to the theory, we find that charging a high shipping cost and starting the auction at a low opening price leads to higher numbers of bidders and higher revenues when the shipping charge is not excessive. We show that these results can be accounted for by boundedly rational bidding behavior such as loss-aversion with separate mental accounts for different attributes of the price or disregard for shipping costs.