ALBERT

Description: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.

Description: Evapotranspiration (ET) from tropical forests serves as a critical moisture source for regional and global climate cycles. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET in the Congo Basin remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct observations, despite the Congo being the second-largest river basin in the world and containing a vast region of tropical forest. In this study, we applied a water balance model to an array of remotely sensed and in situ datasets to produce monthly, basin-wide ET estimates spanning April 2002 to November 2016. Data sources include water storage changes estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in situ measurements of river discharge, and precipitation from several remotely sensed and gauge-based sources. An optimal precipitation dataset was determined as a weighted average of interpolated data by Nicholson et al. (2018), Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 (CHIRPS2) , and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record product (PERSIANN-CDR), with the relative weights based on the error magnitudes of each dataset as determined by triple collocation. The resulting water-balance-derived ET (ETwb) features a long-term average that is consistent with previous studies (117.2±3.5 cm yr−1) but displays greater seasonal and interannual variability than seven global ET products. The seasonal cycle of ETwb generally tracks that of precipitation over the basin, with the exception that ETwb is greater in March–April–May (MAM) than in the relatively wetter September–October–November (SON) periods. This pattern appears to be driven by seasonal variations in the diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) fraction, net radiation (Rn), and soil water availability. From 2002 to 2016, Rn, PAR, and vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) all increased significantly within the Congo Basin; however, no corresponding trend occurred in ETwb. We hypothesize that the stability of ETwb over the study period despite sunnier and less humid conditions may be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that offset the impacts of rising VPD and irradiance on stomatal water use efficiency (WUE).

Description: Optimum management of irrigated crops in regions with shallow saline groundwater requires a careful balance between application of irrigation water and upward movement of salinity from the groundwater. Few field-validated surrogate models are available to aid in the management of irrigation water under shallow groundwater conditions. The objective of this research is to develop a model that can aid in the management using a minimum of input data that are field validated. In this paper a 2-year field experiment was carried out in the Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, China, and a physically based integrated surrogate model for arid irrigated areas with shallow groundwater was developed and validated with the collected field data. The integrated model that links crop growth with available water and salinity in the vadose zone is called Evaluation of the Performance of Irrigated Crops and Soils (EPICS). EPICS recognizes that field capacity is reached when the matric potential is equal to the height above the groundwater table and thus not by a limiting hydraulic conductivity. In the field experiment, soil moisture contents and soil salt conductivity at five depths in the top 100 cm, groundwater depth, crop height, and leaf area index were measured in 2017 and 2018. The field results were used for calibration and validation of EPICS. Simulated and observed data fitted generally well during both calibration and validation. The EPICS model that can predict crop growth, soil water, groundwater depth, and soil salinity can aid in optimizing water management in irrigation districts with shallow aquifers.

Description: In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

Description: The controls that affect the degree of spatio-temporal change to foredunes following scarping are reviewed herein. As sea-levels rises and climate changes, dune scarping will become more common. Thus, it is critical to understand what factors contribute to the magnitude of scarping, and what effect this has on dune systems to better manage coastal erosion into the future. Scarping occurs when foredunes are partially eroded by waves, generally during periods of high water level. The controls on the degree and magnitude of scarping examined include water level, foredune vegetation cover and species present, plant root mass, height and volume of the foredune, the original foredune morphology, surfzone–beach type, and compaction of sediment. Water-level height and duration of high water is the most significant control as it determines the elevation at which wave action can erode the dune and, therefore, the extent of scarping and dune volumetric loss. Higher plant density, greater rooting depth, high root mass, and greater compaction aid in reducing the degree of scaping. The presence of large woody debris and wrack may also influence the degree of scarping. The effects scarping has on the morphology of a foredune after the initial erosion event can range from small changes (e.g. minor, small scarps and slight slumping), to moderate changes such as the foredune translating landwards, to large change such as the transition of an entire dune system into a new transgressive dunefield phase. A new model summarising the key controls and their relationship/significance to the magnitude and extent of scarping is presented.

Description: Humans kill and care for animals in a multitude of contexts. These themes – killing and caring – form the focus of this second report on animal geographies research. Most notably, killing and caring take place through conservation and the production and consumption of food. Other realms of recent research include killing through climate change, formal arrangements of care, how animals are made killable, and the significance of the individual and collective. Further to these two major themes, the review identifies other approaches to animal geographies research in recent years; namely, political and relational. Finally, the propensity for humans to kill and care for animals is highlighted by crisis. I open and close the review by considering connections between animals and two contemporary emergencies: the fires that burned south-eastern Australia over summer 2019–20 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Description: In the past decades, severe heat waves have frequently occurred in many parts of the world. These conspicuous heat waves exerted terrible influences on human health, society, the economy, agriculture, the ecosystem and so on. Based on observed daily temperatures in China, an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days was established involving the frequency, duration, intensity and scale of these events across large cities in China. Heat waves and extreme-temperature days showed an increasing trend in most regions except northwest China from 1955 to 2014. After the late 1980s, the increasing trend was more obvious than the decades before. The cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were threatened by the most serious heat events in the past 60 years, especially Chongqing and Changsha. Due to the subtropical monsoon climate and special terrain, Chongqing experienced the most heat events in a long period of time. In particular, there was obvious fluctuation of hot years in 31 cities, which did not continuously rise with global warming; 21 cities mainly located in the eastern and southern regions of China had an obvious rising trend; eight cities had a clear declining trend which was mainly distributed in the western and northern regions of China; and there were no extreme-temperature days in Kunming and Lhasa in the past 60 years. The study revealed an obvious differentiation of heat events for 31 cities under climate change; heat threat in most cities is increasing but declining or remaining unchanged in the other cities. The trend is likely to intensify with global warming.

Description: The total Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) experiences a distinct annual cycle, peaking in September and reaching its minimum in February. In this paper we propose a mathematical and statistical decomposition of this temporal variation in SIE. Each component is interpretable and, when combined, gives a complete picture of the variation in the sea ice. We consider timescales varying from the instantaneous and not previously defined to the multi-decadal curvilinear trend, the longest. Because our representation is daily, these timescales of variability give precise information about the timing and rates of advance and retreat of the ice and may be used to diagnose physical contributors to variability in the sea ice. We define a number of annual cycles each capturing different components of variation, especially the yearly amplitude and phase that are major contributors to SIE variation. Using daily sea ice concentration data, we show that our proposed invariant annual cycle explains 29 % more of the variation in daily SIE than the traditional method. The proposed annual cycle that incorporates amplitude and phase variation explains 77 % more variation than the traditional method. The variation in phase explains more of the variability in SIE than the amplitude. Using our methodology, we show that the anomalous decay of sea ice in 2016 was associated largely with a change of phase rather than amplitude. We show that the long term trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly curvilinear and the reported positive linear trend is small and dependent strongly on a positive trend that began around 2011 and continued until 2016.

Description: This paper argues for a sustained study of knowledge-intensive or liberal professions in geography. I review existing work in political geography and related fields to identify a gap in the study of knowledge-intensive professions, especially those that are popularly associated with elites. I draw from sociology, anthropology, and international relations to explain why we need to better understand such professions. By the geographical study of professions and their expertise I mean the examination of the places, spatial networks, and travels of ideas that shape these professions and the expertise created therein.

Description: The invasion of aquifer microbial communities by aboveground microorganisms, a phenomenon known as community coalescence, is likely to be exacerbated in groundwaters fed by stormwater infiltration systems (SISs). Here, the incidence of this increased connectivity with upslope soils and impermeabilized surfaces was assessed through a meta-analysis of 16S rRNA gene libraries. Specifically, DNA sequences encoding 16S rRNA V5-V6 regions from free-living and attached aquifer bacteria (i.e., water and biofilm samples) were analysed upstream and downstream of a SIS and compared with those from bacterial communities from watershed runoffs and surface sediments from the SIS detention and infiltration basins. Significant bacterial transfers were inferred by the SourceTracker Bayesian approach, with 23 % to 57 % of the aquifer bacterial biofilms being composed of taxa from aboveground sediments and urban runoffs. Sediments from the detention basin were found more significant contributors of taxa involved in the buildup of these biofilms than soils from the infiltration basin. Inferred taxa among the coalesced biofilm community were predicted to be high in hydrocarbon degraders such as Sphingobium and Nocardia. The 16S rRNA-based bacterial community structure of the downstream-SIS aquifer waters showed lower coalescence with aboveground taxa (8 % to 38 %) than those of biofilms and higher numbers of taxa predicted to be involved in the N and S cycles. A DNA marker named tpm enabled the tracking of bacterial species from 24 genera including Pseudomonas, Aeromonas and Xanthomonas, among these communities. Several tpm sequence types were found to be shared between the aboveground and aquifer samples. Reads related to Pseudomonas were allocated to 50 species, of which 16 were found in the aquifer samples. Several of these aquifer species were found to be involved in denitrification but also hydrocarbon degradation (P. aeruginosa, P. putida and P. fluorescens). Some tpm sequence types allocated to P. umsongensis and P. chengduensis were found to be enriched among the tpm-harbouring bacteria, respectively, of the aquifer biofilms and waters. Reads related to Aeromonas were allocated to 11 species, but only those from A. caviae were recovered aboveground and in the aquifer samples. Some tpm sequence types of the X. axonopodis phytopathogen  were recorded in higher proportions among the tpm-harbouring bacteria of the aquifer waters than in the aboveground samples. A significant coalescence of microbial communities from an urban watershed with those of an aquifer was thus observed, and recent aquifer biofilms were found to be significantly colonized by runoff-opportunistic taxa able to use urban C sources from aboveground compartments.

Description: Landfast sea ice (fast ice) attached to Antarctic (near-)coastal elements is a critical component of the local physical and ecological systems. Through its direct coupling with the atmosphere and ocean, fast-ice properties are also a potential indicator of processes related to a changing climate. However, in situ fast-ice observations in Antarctica are extremely sparse because of logistical challenges and harsh environmental conditions. Since 2010, a monitoring program observing the seasonal evolution of fast ice in Atka Bay has been conducted as part of the Antarctic Fast Ice Network (AFIN). The bay is located on the northeastern edge of Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the German wintering station Neumayer III. A number of sampling sites have been regularly revisited each year between annual ice formation and breakup to obtain a continuous record of sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness, as well as snow depth and freeboard across the bay. Here, we present the time series of these measurements over the last 9 years. Combining them with observations from the nearby Neumayer III meteorological observatory as well as auxiliary satellite images enables us to relate the seasonal and interannual fast-ice cycle to the factors that influence their evolution. On average, the annual consolidated fast-ice thickness at the end of the growth season is about 2 m, with a loose platelet layer of 4 m thickness beneath and 0.70 m thick snow on top. Results highlight the predominately seasonal character of the fast-ice regime in Atka Bay without a significant interannual trend in any of the observed variables over the 9-year observation period. Also, no changes are evident when comparing with sporadic measurements in the 1980s and 1990s. It is shown that strong easterly winds in the area govern the year-round snow distribution and also trigger the breakup of fast ice in the bay during summer months. Due to the substantial snow accumulation on the fast ice, a characteristic feature is frequent negative freeboard, associated flooding of the snow–ice interface, and a likely subsequent snow ice formation. The buoyant platelet layer beneath negates the snow weight to some extent, but snow thermodynamics is identified as the main driver of the energy and mass budgets for the fast-ice cover in Atka Bay. The new knowledge of the seasonal and interannual variability of fast-ice properties from the present study helps to improve our understanding of interactions between atmosphere, fast ice, ocean, and ice shelves in one of the key regions of Antarctica and calls for intensified multidisciplinary studies in this region.

Description: Exploring ancient socio-economic adaptation is a basic issue of human-environment interaction. Xinjiang in northwest China is a region of high geographic diversity. Past human adaptations to this arid marginal area is a current focus of research interest but still lacks in-depth study. This article presents data from the Wupu Cemetery, located in the extremely arid Hami Basin in the eastern Tianshan Mountains. Archaeobotanical analysis is used to reconstruct the local environment niche and the subsistence economy of inhabitants. Radiocarbon dating results indicate the cemetery was occupied between 3000 and 2400 cal BP, during the late Bronze Age and early Iron Age. In total 16 species of the plant remains are identified, including four cereal crops, foxtail millet ( Setaria italica), broomcorn millet ( Panicum miliaceum), naked barley ( Hordeum vulgare var. coeleste), wheat ( Triticum aestivum) and 12 wild types. The riparian plant Populus euphratica and aquatic plant Typha sp. indicate inhabitants lived in an oasis near the cemetery. Environmental interpretation of this data compares well with other seven sites in arid southern Xinjiang. In addition to faunal remains from the site, it is assumed that a flexible system of multi-crop farming and herding was the subsistence pattern around Wupu. This system was widespread across Inner Asia and appears to have played a central role in adapting to different marginal environments during the Bronze Age and Iron Age.

Description: Storm tides are a major hazard for the German North Sea coasts. For coastal protection and economic activities, planning information on the probability and magnitude of extreme storm tides and their possible future changes is important. This study focuses on the most extreme events and examines whether they could have become more severe under slightly different conditions while still remaining within physical plausibility. In the face of a limited number of observational data on very severe events, an extensive set of model data is used to extract most extreme storm tide events for locations in the German Bight, in particular Borkum and the Ems estuary. The data set includes water levels and respective atmospheric conditions from a hindcast and future climate realizations without sea level rise describing today's and possible future conditions. A number of very severe events with water levels exceeding those measured near Borkum since 1906 are identified in the data set. A possible further amplification of the highest events is investigated by simulating these events for the North Sea with different phase lags between the astronomical tide given at the open model boundaries and the wind forcing. It is found that superposition of spring tide conditions, different timing of the astronomical high water and atmospheric conditions during the highest storm event would cause an enhancement of the highest water level up to about 50 cm. The water levels of the two highest events from the data set are used to analyse the effects in the Ems estuary using a high-resolution model of the German Bight. Additionally, the influences of an extreme river runoff and of sea level rise are studied. The extreme river runoff of 1200 m3 s−1 increases the highest water levels by several decimetres in the narrow upstream part of the Ems estuary. This effect diminishes downstream. The sea level rise increases the water level in the downstream part of the Ems estuary by the amount applied at the model boundary to the North Sea. In the upstream part, its influence on the water level decreases. This study may serve as a first step towards an impact assessment for severe storm tides and towards implications for coastal zone management in times of climate change.

Description: Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important gateway for nutrients and pollutants from land to sea. While understanding SGD is crucial for managing nearshore ecosystems and coastal freshwater reserves, studying this discharge is complicated by its occurrence at the limit between land and sea, a dynamic environment. This practical difficulty is exacerbated by the significant spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, to capture the magnitude of SGD, a variety of techniques and measurements, applied over multiple periods, is needed. Here, we combine several geophysical methods to detect zones of fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) in the intertidal zone, upper beach, dunes, and shallow coastal area. Both terrestrial electrical-resistivity tomography (ERT; roll-along) and marine continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) are used from the shallow continental shelf up to the dunes and combined with frequency domain electromagnetic (FDEM) mapping in the intertidal zone. In particular, we apply an estimation of robust apparent electrical conductivity (rECa) from FDEM data to provide reliable lateral and vertical discrimination of FSGD zones. The study area is a very dynamic environment along the North Sea, characterized by semi-diurnal tides between 3 and 5 m. CRP is usually applied in calmer conditions, but we prove that such surveys are possible and provide additional information to primarily land-bound ERT surveying. The 2D inversion models created from ERT and CRP data clearly indicate the presence of FSGD on the lower beach or below the low-water line. This discharge originates from a potable freshwater lens below the dunes and flows underneath a thick saltwater lens, present from the dunes to the lower sandy beach, which is fully observed with ERT. Freshwater outflow intensity has increased since 1980, due to a decrease of groundwater pumping in the dunes. FDEM mapping at two different times reveals discharge at the same locations, clearly displays the lateral variation of the zone of discharge, and suggests that FSGD is stronger at the end of winter compared to the beginning of autumn. ERT, CRP, and FDEM are complementary tools in the investigation of SGD. They provide a high-resolution 3D image of the saltwater and freshwater distribution in the phreatic coastal aquifer over a relatively large area, both off- and onshore.

Description: Transcontinental exchange emerged and intensified in northern China since the late fifth millennium BP (Before present), especially in the arc, which was the core area of the eastern part of the trans-Eurasian exchange during the Late Neolithic and the Bronze Age. In the arc, the exchange profoundly affected the human subsistence strategy and human-environment relationship. Relative to the crop patterns and human diets during the Bronze Age in northern China, systematic investigations of zooarcheological data based on broad spatial and temporal framework to understand the influence of introduced livestock and indigenous livestock on human subsistence are lacking. To show the spatial-temporal variation in animal utilization patterns and its relation to prehistoric trans-Eurasian exchange, the zooarcheological data from 40 sites in northern China dated between 5000 and 2500 BP were analyzed. The strategy of animal utilization in northern China changed substantially from 5000 to 2500 BP, with notable spatial features in different chronological phases. From 5000 to 4300 BP, wild mammals and indigenous livestock (pig, dog) use dominated in the arc and the North China Plain (NCP). During 4300–3500 BP, the importance of introduced livestock (cattle, sheep/goat, horse) exceeded that of indigenous livestock in the arc, whereas indigenous livestock continued to dominate in the NCP. Indigenous livestock acted as the most important animal subsistence in northern China, although the exploitation of introduced livestock increased during 3500–2000 BP. These spatio-temporal differences in animal utilization appear to be closely associated with the prehistoric trans-Eurasian exchange, but were also affected by local environment, agriculture development, and climate change.

Description: We test a recent prediction that stable carbon isotope ratios from UK oaks will display age-trends of more than 4‰ per century by measuring 〉5400 carbon isotope ratios from the late-wood alpha-cellulose of individual rings from 18 modern oak trees and 50 building timbers spanning the 9th–21st centuries. After a very short (c.5 years) juvenile phase with slightly elevated values, the number of series that show rising and falling trends is almost equal (33:35) and the average trend is almost zero. These results are based upon measuring and averaging the trends in individual time-series; the ‘mean of the slopes’ approach. We demonstrate that the more conventional ‘slope of the mean’ approach can produce strong but spurious ‘age-trends’ even when the constituent series are flat, with zero slope and zero variance. We conclude that it is safe to compile stable carbon isotope chronologies from UK oaks without de-trending. The isotope chronologies produced in this way are not subject to the ‘segment length curse’, which applies to growth measurements, such as ring width or density, and have the potential to retain very long-term climate signals.

Description: The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter (CRISTAL) mission is one of six high-priority candidate missions (HPCMs) under consideration by the European Commission to enlarge the Copernicus Space Component. Together, the high-priority candidate missions fill gaps in the measurement capability of the existing Copernicus Space Component to address emerging and urgent user requirements in relation to monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions, polar environments, and land surfaces. The ambition is to enlarge the Copernicus Space Component with the high-priority candidate missions in the mid-2020s to provide enhanced continuity of services in synergy with the next generation of the existing Copernicus Sentinel missions. CRISTAL will carry a dual-frequency synthetic-aperture radar altimeter as its primary payload for measuring surface height and a passive microwave radiometer to support atmospheric corrections and surface-type classification. The altimeter will have interferometric capabilities at Ku-band for improved ground resolution and a second (non-interferometric) Ka-band frequency to provide information on snow layer properties. This paper outlines the user consultations that have supported expansion of the Copernicus Space Component to include the high-priority candidate missions, describes the primary and secondary objectives of the CRISTAL mission, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.

Description: Für die Verortung der deutschen akademischen Humangeographie im Geflecht zwischen wissenschaftlicher Praxis, theoretischen Propositionen und Lehralltag war der Geographentag in Kiel im Jahre 1969 ein Meilenstein. Anlässlich der Erinnerung an den Ort und die Debatten vor 50 Jahren wurde wiederum Kiel im Jahre 2019 zu einem Ort der Reflektion. Der hier vorliegende Beitrag versucht in einer bewusst persönlich formulierten Art die Impulse, die von „Kiel 1969“ ausgingen, im universitären Alltag des Geographischen Institutes der TU München in den 1980er Jahren zu verorten und hierdurch gewissermaßen zu relativieren. Hierdurch entsteht ein differenziertes Bild von richtungsweisenden Veränderungen und verharrenden Strukturen, welche ineinander verwoben die damals überregional bekannte Münchener Sozialgeographie charakterisierten – und für die deutschsprachige Humangeographie über die speziell Münchner Zustände hinaus bezeichnend waren.

Description: Per capita arable land is decreasing due to the rapidly increasing population, and fresh water is becoming scarce and more expensive. Therefore, farmers should continue to use technology and innovative solutions to improve efficiency, save input costs, and optimise environmental resources (such as water). In the case study presented in this paper, the Global Navigation Satellite System interferometric reflectometry (GNSS-IR) technique was used to monitor soil moisture during 66 d, from 3 December 2018 to 6 February 2019, in the installations of the Cajamar Centre of Experiences, Paiporta, Valencia, Spain. Two main objectives were pursued. The first was the extension of the technique to a multi-constellation solution using GPS, GLONASS, and GALILEO satellites, and the second was to test whether mass-market sensors could be used for this technique. Both objectives were achieved. At the same time that the GNSS observations were made, soil samples taken at 5 cm depth were used for soil moisture determination to establish a reference data set. Based on a comparison with that reference data set, all GNSS solutions, including the three constellations and the two sensors (geodetic and mass market), were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient between 0.7 and 0.85.

Description: In Australia, the drivers of precolonial fire regimes remain contentious, with some advocating an anthropogenic-dominated regime, and others highlighting the importance of climate, climatic variability or alternatively some nexus between climate and human activity. Here, we explore the inter-relationships between fire, humans and vegetation using macroscopic charcoal, archaeology and palynology over the last ~5430 cal. year BP from Broughton Island, a small, near-shore island located in eastern Australia. We find a clear link between fire and the reduction of arboreal pollen and rainforest indicators on the island, especially at ~4.0 ka and in the last ~1000 years. Similarities with comparable palaeoenvironmental records of fire in the region and a record of strong El Niño (dry, fire-prone) events supports the contention that climate was a significant influence on the fire regimes of Broughton Island. However, two periods of enhanced fire activity, at ~4000 years BP and ~

Description: Wildfire is a ubiquitous disturbance agent in subalpine forests in western North America. Lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia), a dominant tree species in these forests, is largely resilient to high-severity fires, but this resilience may be compromised under future scenarios of altered climate and fire activity. We investigated fire occurrence and post-fire vegetation change in a lodgepole pine forest over the past 2500 years to understand ecosystem responses to variability in wildfire and climate. We reconstructed vegetation composition from pollen preserved in a sediment core from Chickaree Lake, Colorado, USA (1.5-ha lake), in Rocky Mountain National Park, and compared vegetation change to an existing fire history record. Pollen samples ( n = 52) were analyzed to characterize millennial-scale and short-term (decadal-scale) changes in vegetation associated with multiple high-severity fire events. Pollen assemblages were dominated by Pinus throughout the record, reflecting the persistence of lodgepole pine. Wildfires resulted in significant declines in Pinus pollen percentages, but pollen assemblages returned to pre-fire conditions after 18 fire events, within c.75 years. The primary broad-scale change was an increase in Picea, Artemisia, Rosaceae, and Arceuthobium pollen types, around 1155 calibrated years before present. The timing of this change is coincident with changes in regional pollen records, and a shift toward wetter winter conditions identified from regional paleoclimate records. Our results indicate the overall stability of vegetation in Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine forests during climate changes and repeated high-severity fires. Contemporary deviations from this pattern of resilience could indicate future recovery challenges in these ecosystems.

Description: The aim of this paper is to elucidate the dynamic interplay of visuality, space and power through an analysis of what we call scopic relational spaces (SRS). Our primary claim is that scopic relations are intrinsically spatial relations and scopic practices are spatial practices. We contend that such analysis facilitates the discernment of significant socio-spatial processes and events that are otherwise unrecognized. We suggest that attention to the socio-spatial phenomena under investigation can contribute to debates about the alleged incommensurability of territorial and relational spatial imaginaries.

Description: The Guizhou karst area is one of the largest continuous areas of karst in the humid climate zone and is representative of karst landforms in China. Large portions of the karst system are characterized by extremely shallow soils underlain by weathered bedrock and water deficits are common. Although the distribution of ecosystem productivity is largely related to variations in the temperature and precipitation, the influence of the substrate in karst areas requires further exploration. We explored the relative importance of the bedrock geochemistry (characterized by the concentrations of Ca, Mg and Si) and climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) to explain the spatial variability in gross primary productivity (GPP) with various degrees of water deficit during the time period 2001–2015. Our results show that the impact of bedrock geochemistry is an important parameter in changing the original relationship between climate and the GPP. The bedrock geochemistry functioned as a “regulator” of the relation between climate and the GPP, which strengthened with decreasing climate favourability. The variations in GPP and surface water storage were significantly different when different elements (Ca, Mg or Si) were dominant. The Mg-rich regions showed the greatest annual variations in the GPP, whereas the Si-rich regions had the strongest surface water storage potential to support vegetation growth. The results of our study are important for systematically evaluating the effects of climate on vegetation productivity and provide a benchmark for global vegetation modelling predictions.

Description: In this paper, we identify the ways in which the existing literature has examined financial technology (FinTech). Using the frame of the ‘FinTech Cube’, we examine how FinTech unfolds through the intersections of key actors, technologies and institutions. We demonstrate the relevance of FinTech for two areas of geographical enquiry: i) the reshaping of global production and financial networks, and ii) financial inclusion and poverty reduction in poorer countries. In doing so, we accord particular attention to the significance of FinTech for theoretical and empirical research in economic geography.

Description: Projecting the spatiotemporal changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires physically based integrated hydrologic models which simulate the transfer of water and energy across the earth's surface. These models show promise in the context of unprecedented climate extremes given their reliance on the underlying physics of the system as opposed to empirical relationships. However, these techniques are plagued by several sources of uncertainty, including the inaccuracy of input datasets such as meteorological forcing. These datasets, usually derived from climate models or satellite-based products, are typically only resolved on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, while hydrologic variables of interest (e.g., discharge and groundwater levels) require a resolution at much smaller scales. In this work, a high-resolution hydrologic model is forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) generated by a dynamical downscaling analysis from the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Cosumnes watershed, which spans the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley interface of California (USA), exhibits semi-natural flow conditions due to its rare undammed river basin and is used here as a test bed to illustrate potential impacts of various resolutions of meteorological forcing on snow accumulation and snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Results show that the errors in spatial distribution patterns impact land surface processes and can be delayed in time. Localized biases in groundwater levels can be as large as 5–10 m and 3 m in surface water. Most hydrologic variables reveal that biases are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for model calibration and ultimately water management decisions.

Description: The Late Antique Little Ice Age, spanning the period from 536 CE to roughly 560 CE, saw temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere drop by a degree C in less than a decade. This rapid cooling is thought to have caused widespread famine, epidemic disease, and social disruption. The relationship between cooling and social disruption is examined here using a set of high-resolution climate and historical data. A significant link between cooling and social disruption is demonstrated, but it is also demonstrated that the link is highly variable, with some societies experiencing dramatic cooling changing very little, and others experiencing only slight cooling changing dramatically. This points to variation in vulnerability, and serves to establish the Late Antique Little Ice Age as a context within which naturalistic quasi-experiments on vulnerability to climate change might be conducted.

Description: Snow instability tests provide valuable information regarding the stability of the snowpack. Test results are key data used to prepare public avalanche forecasts. However, to include them into operational procedures, a quantitative interpretation scheme is needed. Whereas the interpretation of the rutschblock test (RB) is well established, a similar detailed classification for the extended column test (ECT) is lacking. Therefore, we develop a four-class stability interpretation scheme. Exploring a large data set of 1719 ECTs observed at 1226 sites, often performed together with a RB in the same snow pit, and corresponding slope stability information, we revisit the existing stability interpretations and suggest a more detailed classification. In addition, we consider the interpretation of cases when two ECTs were performed in the same snow pit. Our findings confirm previous research, namely that the crack propagation propensity is the most relevant ECT result and that the loading step required to initiate a crack is of secondary importance for stability assessment. The comparison with the RB showed that the ECT classifies slope stability less reliably than the RB. In some situations, performing a second ECT may be helpful when the first test did not indicate rather unstable or stable conditions. Finally, the data clearly show that false-unstable predictions of stability tests outnumber the correct-unstable predictions in an environment where overall unstable locations are rare.

Description: On 5 March 2019 12:00 UTC, an atmospheric river (AR) made landfall in Santa Barbara, CA, and lasted approximately 30 h. While ARs are typical winter storms in the area, the extraordinary number of lightning strikes observed near coastal Santa Barbara made this event unique. The Earth Networks Global Lightning Network (ENGLN) detected 8811 lightning flashes around southern California (30 to 37∘ N and 130 to 115∘ W) in 24 h, which is roughly 2500 times the climatological flash rate in this region. The AR-related thunderstorm resulted in approximately 23.18 mm accumulated precipitation in 30 h in Santa Barbara. This article examines synoptic and mesoscale features conducive to this electrifying AR event, characterizing its uniqueness in the context of previous March events that made landfall in the region. We show that this AR was characterized by an unusual deep moist layer extending from the low to mid-troposphere in an environment with potential instability and low-elevation freezing level. Despite the negligible convective available potential energy (CAPE) during the peak of the thunderstorm near Santa Barbara, the lifting of layers with high water vapor content in the AR via warm conveyor belt and orographic forcing in a convectively unstable atmosphere resulted in the formation of hail and enhanced electrification.

Description: The first aim of this corrigendum is to point out and correct calculation errors on solar depression angle and azimuth angle in Bertolin and Domínguez-Castro (2020a, 2020b). The second aim is to recognize that these calculations are correct in Dalin (2020). The third aim is to analyze the chances of Antonio Colla to observe the noctilucent cloud (NLC) taking into account the correct calculations of the twilight sky arc determining the illuminated area of an NLC and the uncertainties in the Colla’s observation report.

Description: In this paper, we propose that there is a politics of encounters centered on the body at play in seeking asylum and refuge, and that it is critical to study how it unfolds from the point of view of both governing and agency. Building on existing work that looks at the role of embodiment in the political struggles of refugees, and leaning on Helmuth Plessner’s original thinking about social embodiment, we develop a theoretical understanding of this political dynamic, illustrating how it can help us make sense of power relations and forms of governance and (latent) resistance involved in it.

Description: In this first report, I overview research on storytelling of the histories of GIS. I suggest that these efforts reveal important pathways for thinking the current moment and conditioning technoscience futures. I argue that these stories around technology illustrate various disciplinary crucibles around technical practices and knowledge work. To report on progress in GIScience is also to narrate the moments of change in the discipline, whether marked as quantitative, qualitative, radical, critical, black, feminist, Marxist, indigenous, environmental, postcolonial, queer, or minor, among others. I suggest ‘minor GISciences’ to encourage attentiveness to the historical conditions and social implications of geographic technologies.

Description: Territorial stigmatisation emerged over the past decade as the prevailing concept for understanding the phenomenon of disreputable places and the processes by which they are produced. Following the work of Loïc Wacquant, several studies have articulated its centrality to the neoliberal restructuring of capital and the state. Departing from Wacquant, several have also examined the various forms of resistance to territorial stigmatisation. In reviewing this literature, this paper argues and outlines how territory – paradoxically under-theorised in the literature to date – can clarify the production of territorial stigmatisation, the obfuscations and legitimations it performs, and resistance and contestation.

Description: This article identifies new geographies of commemoration. These draw on non-representational perspectives that foreground the experiential aspects of commemorative sites and events, drawing these together with methodologies alive to the subtle but excessive feelings that arise in such settings. It argues that one aim of commemoration – to reinforce the contours of national identity – is disrupted by a focus on the experiential world because of the unpredictable and excessive nature of sensory and affective feelings. New research in geographies of commemoration also draws together different temporalities, holding the potential to unsettle and complicate national narratives.

Description: Limited availability of ground measurements in the vast majority of river basins world-wide increases the value of alternative data sources such as satellite observations in hydrological modelling. This study investigates the potential of using remotely sensed river water levels, i.e. altimetry observations, from multiple satellite missions to identify parameter sets for a hydrological model in the semi-arid Luangwa River basin in Zambia. A distributed process-based rainfall–runoff model with sub-grid process heterogeneity was developed and run on a daily timescale for the time period 2002 to 2016. As a benchmark, feasible model parameter sets were identified using traditional model calibration with observed river discharge data. For the parameter identification using remote sensing, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used in a first step to restrict the feasible parameter sets based on the seasonal fluctuations in total water storage. Next, three alternative ways of further restricting feasible model parameter sets using satellite altimetry time series from 18 different locations along the river were compared. In the calibrated benchmark case, daily river flows were reproduced relatively well with an optimum Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of ENS,Q=0.78 (5/95th percentiles of all feasible solutions ENS,Q,5/95=0.61–0.75). When using only GRACE observations to restrict the parameter space, assuming no discharge observations are available, an optimum of ENS,Q=-1.4 (ENS,Q,5/95=-2.3–0.38) with respect to discharge was obtained. The direct use of altimetry-based river levels frequently led to overestimated flows and poorly identified feasible parameter sets (ENS,Q,5/95=-2.9–0.10). Similarly, converting modelled discharge into water levels using rating curves in the form of power relationships with two additional free calibration parameters per virtual station resulted in an overestimation of the discharge and poorly identified feasible parameter sets (ENS,Q,5/95=-2.6–0.25). However, accounting for river geometry proved to be highly effective. This included using river cross-section and gradient information extracted from global high-resolution terrain data available on Google Earth and applying the Strickler–Manning equation to convert modelled discharge into water levels. Many parameter sets identified with this method reproduced the hydrograph and multiple other signatures of discharge reasonably well, with an optimum of ENS,Q=0.60 (ENS,Q,5/95=-0.31–0.50). It was further shown that more accurate river cross-section data improved the water-level simulations, modelled rating curve, and discharge simulations during intermediate and low flows at the basin outlet where detailed on-site cross-section information was available. Also, increasing the number of virtual stations used for parameter selection in the calibration period considerably improved the model performance in a spatial split-sample validation. The results provide robust evidence that in the absence of directly observed discharge data for larger rivers in data-scarce regions, altimetry data from multiple virtual stations combined with GRACE observations have the potential to fill this gap when combined with readily available estimates of river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in poorly gauged or ungauged basins.

Description: The Maxwell elasto-brittle (MEB) rheology is implemented in the Eulerian finite-difference (FD) modeling framework commonly used in classical viscous-plastic (VP) models. The role of the damage parameterization, the cornerstone of the MEB rheology, in the formation and collapse of ice arches and ice bridges in a narrow channel is investigated. Ice bridge simulations are compared with observations to derive constraints on the mechanical properties of landfast sea ice. Results show that the overall dynamical behavior documented in previous MEB models is reproduced in the FD implementation, such as the localization of the damage in space and time and the propagation of ice fractures in space at very short timescales. In the simulations, an ice arch is easily formed downstream of the channel, sustaining an ice bridge upstream. The ice bridge collapses under a critical surface forcing that depends on the material cohesion. Typical ice arch conditions observed in the Arctic are best simulated using a material cohesion in the range of 5–10 kN m−2. Upstream of the channel, fracture lines along which convergence (ridging) takes place are oriented at an angle that depends on the angle of internal friction. Their orientation, however, deviates from the Mohr–Coulomb theory. The damage parameterization is found to cause instabilities at large compressive stresses, which prevents the production of longer-term simulations required for the formation of stable ice arches upstream of the channel between these lines of fracture. Based on these results, we propose that the stress correction scheme used in the damage parameterization be modified to remove numerical instabilities.

Description: Based on the discourse analysis of articles collected between 2010 and 2016 from the Süddeutsche Zeitung – a leading local and German national newspaper – my aim is to reconstruct the central conditions limiting or enabling the participation of those citizens in the public discourse who are generally constructed as „migrants“. Therefore, I analyse the central elements of the discourse around the subject migration/integration. My analysis is guided by the ‚postmigrant debate‘, in particular by the approaches of the ‚differential inclusion‘ of migrantised groups and their ‚struggles of migration‘ combining it with critical race debates. My aim is to outline the different discursive ways that allow migrantised citizens to participate in public meaning making, and the ways, they use to contest majoritarian views. My analysis reveals their critical reconsideration of the system of differentiated inclusion, which is organizing the majoritarian discourse and ‚migrants‘ everyday lives. While the journalistic strategy exemplified within the analysis is working in support of the ‚migrant's perspectives‘, it simultaneously acts to normalize majoritarian position contra migration.

Description: Cave microclimate and geochemical monitoring is vitally important for correct interpretations of proxy time series from speleothems with regard to past climatic and environmental dynamics. We present results of a comprehensive cave-monitoring programme in Waipuna Cave in the North Island of New Zealand, a region that is strongly influenced by the Southern Westerlies and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to characterise the response of the Waipuna Cave hydrological system to atmospheric circulation dynamics in the southwestern Pacific region in order to assure the quality of ongoing palaeo-environmental reconstructions from this cave. Drip water from 10 drip sites was collected at roughly monthly intervals for a period of ca. 3 years for isotopic (δ18O, δD, d-excess parameter, δ17O, and 17Oexcess) and elemental (Mg∕Ca and Sr∕Ca) analysis. The monitoring included spot measurements of drip rates and cave air CO2 concentration. Cave air temperature and drip rates were also continuously recorded by automatic loggers. These datasets were compared to surface air temperature, rainfall, and potential evaporation from nearby meteorological stations to test the degree of signal transfer and expression of surface environmental conditions in Waipuna Cave hydrochemistry. Based on the drip response dynamics to rainfall and other characteristics, we identified three types of discharge associated with hydrological routing in Waipuna Cave: (i) type 1 – diffuse flow, (ii) type 2 – fracture flow, and (iii) type 3 – combined flow. Drip water isotopes do not reflect seasonal variability but show higher values during severe drought. Drip water δ18O values are characterised by small variability and reflect the mean isotopic signature of precipitation, testifying to rapid and thorough homogenisation in the epikarst. Mg∕Ca and Sr∕Ca ratios in drip waters are predominantly controlled by prior calcite precipitation (PCP). Prior calcite precipitation is strongest during austral summer (December–February), reflecting drier conditions and a lack of effective infiltration, and is weakest during the wet austral winter (July–September). The Sr∕Ca ratio is particularly sensitive to ENSO conditions due to the interplay of congruent or incongruent host rock dissolution, which manifests itself in lower Sr∕Ca in above-average warmer and wetter (La Niña-like) conditions. Our microclimatic observations at Waipuna Cave provide a valuable baseline for the rigorous interpretation of speleothem proxy records aiming at reconstructing the past expression of Pacific climate modes.

Description: A number of seaside communities in Troms, northern Norway, are vulnerable to sudden weather-induced access disruptions due to high-impact weather and dependency on one or few roads. In this paper we study changes in winter weather known to potentially cause access disruptions in Troms, for the present climate (1958–2017) and two future periods (2041–2070; 2071–2100). We focus on climate indices associated with snow avalanches and weather that may lead to for example slippery road conditions. In two focus areas, the most important results show larger snow amounts now compared to 50 years ago, and heavy snowfall has become more intense and frequent. This trend is expected to turn in the future, particularly at low elevations where snow cover during winter might become a rarity by 2100. Strong snow drift, due to a combination of snowfall and wind speed, has slightly increased in the two focus areas, but a strong decrease is expected in the future due to less snow. Events of heavy rain during winter are rather infrequent in the present winter climate of Troms, but we show that these events are likely to occur much more often in all regions in the future.

Description: The Antarctic ice sheet extent in the Weddell Sea embayment (WSE) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ca. 19–25 calibrated kiloyears before present, ka cal BP) and its subsequent retreat from the shelf are poorly constrained, with two conflicting scenarios being discussed. Today, the modern Brunt Ice Shelf, the last remaining ice shelf in the northeastern WSE, is only pinned at a single location and recent crevasse development may lead to its rapid disintegration in the near future. We investigated the seafloor morphology on the northeastern WSE shelf and discuss its implications, in combination with marine geological records, to create reconstructions of the past behaviour of this sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), including ice–seafloor interactions. Our data show that an ice stream flowed through Stancomb-Wills Trough and acted as the main conduit for EAIS drainage during the LGM in this sector. Post-LGM ice stream retreat occurred stepwise, with at least three documented grounding-line still-stands, and the trough had become free of grounded ice by ∼10.5 ka cal BP. In contrast, slow-flowing ice once covered the shelf in Brunt Basin and extended westwards toward McDonald Bank. During a later time period, only floating ice was present within Brunt Basin, but large “ice slabs” enclosed within the ice shelf occasionally ran aground at the eastern side of McDonald Bank, forming 10 unusual ramp-shaped seabed features. These ramps are the result of temporary ice shelf grounding events buttressing the ice further upstream. To the west of this area, Halley Trough very likely was free of grounded ice during the LGM, representing a potential refuge for benthic shelf fauna at this time.

Description: Expansion of the hydrologically connected area during rainfall events causes previously disconnected areas to contribute to streamflow. If these newly contributing areas have a different hydrochemical composition compared to the previously connected contributing areas, this may cause a change in stream water chemistry that cannot be explained by simple mixing of rainfall and baseflow. Changes in stormflow composition are, therefore, sometimes used to identify when transiently connected areas (or water sources) contribute to stormflow. We identified the dominant sources of streamflow for a steep 20 ha pre-Alpine headwater catchment in Switzerland and investigated the temporal changes in connectivity for four rainfall events based on stream water concentrations and groundwater level data. First, we compared the isotopic and chemical composition of stormflow at the catchment outlet to the composition of rainfall, groundwater and soil water. Three-component end-member mixing analyses indicated that groundwater dominated stormflow during all events, and that soil water fractions were minimal for three of the four events. However, the large variability in soil and groundwater composition compared to the temporal changes in stormflow composition inhibited the determination of the contributions from the different groundwater sources. Second, we estimated the concentrations of different solutes in stormflow based on the mixing fractions derived from two-component hydrograph separation using a conservative tracer (δ2H) and the measured concentrations of the solutes in baseflow and rainfall. The estimated concentrations differed from the measured stormflow concentrations for many solutes and samples. The deviations increased gradually with increasing streamflow for some solutes (e.g. iron and copper), suggesting increased contributions from riparian and hillslope groundwater with higher concentrations of these solutes and thus increased hydrological connectivity. The findings of this study show that solute concentrations partly reflect the gradual changes in hydrologic connectivity, and that it is important to quantify the variability in the composition of different source areas.

Description: In this study, the fine-scale responses of a stratified oligotrophic karstic lake (Kozjak Lake, Plitvice Lakes, Croatia; the lake fetch is 2.3 km, and the maximum depth is 46 m) to atmospheric forcing on the lake surface are investigated. Lake temperatures measured at a resolution of 2 min at 15 depths ranging from 0.2 to 43 m, which were observed during the 6 July–5 November 2018 period, were analyzed. The results show thermocline deepening from 10 m at the beginning of the observation period to 16 m at the end of the observation period, where the latter depth corresponds to approximately one-third of the lake depth. The pycnocline followed the same pattern, except that the deepening occurred throughout the entire period approximately 1 m above the thermocline. On average, thermocline deepening was 3–4 cm d−1, while the maximum deepening (12.5 cm d−1) coincided with the occurrence of internal seiches. Furthermore, the results indicate three different types of forcings on the lake surface; two of these forcings have diurnal periodicity – (1) continuous heat fluxes and (2) occasional periodic stronger winds – whereas forcing (3) corresponds to occasional nonperiodic stronger winds with steady along-basin directions. Continuous heat fluxes (1) produced forced diurnal oscillations in the lake temperature within the first 5 m of the lake throughout the entire observation period. Noncontinuous periodic stronger winds (2) resulted in occasional forced diurnal oscillations in the lake temperatures at depths from approximately 7 to 20 m. Occasional strong and steady along-basin winds (3) triggered both baroclinic internal seiches with a principal period of 8.0 h and barotropic surface seiches with a principal period of 9 min. Lake currents produced by the surface seiches under realistic-topography conditions generated baroclinic oscillations of the thermocline region (at depths from 9 to 17 m) with periods corresponding to the period of surface seiches (≈ 9 min), which, to the best of our knowledge, has not been reported in previous lake studies.

Description: The discovery that orbital variations are the driving force behind Quaternary climate change provides an impetus to set local and regional records of environmental change into the global context, a principle that has been strongly embraced by Quaternary scientists working in New Zealand. Their major achievements and significant current initiatives are reviewed here. The importance of the New Zealand Quaternary stems from its geographical context: a climatically sensitive, remote oceanic, southern location spanning 17 degrees of the mid-latitudes; an obliquely convergent plate boundary setting resulting in a high mountain range athwart the prevailing westerlies, active volcanism, a youthful and dynamic landscape, and mountains high enough to maintain glaciers today; and a remarkably short prehistory. The resultant records show marked environmental changes due not only to climatic oscillations but also to vigorous, active tectonism and volcanism. The Taupo Volcanic Zone, containing the world's strongest concentration of youthful rhyolitic volcanoes, has produced at least 10 000 km3of magma in the last 2 Ma. Climatic interpretations of records from marine sediments in the New Zealand region, together with several long sequences of alternating marine and terrestrial sediments, indicate broad synchrony with Northern Hemisphere events (within limitations of dating), although there are differences in detail for shorter-term climatic events. It is not yet certain that glacial advances coincided precisely with those in the Northern Hemisphere or were of similar duration. Late Cainozoic glaciation commenced c. 2.6-2.4 Ma but the record of glacial deposits is fragmentary and poorly dated except for the most recent events. The Last (Otira) Glaciation, from c. 100-10 ka, was characterized by at least five glacial advances including during the Last Glacial Maximum from 25 to 15 ka, when snowlines fell by 600-800 m. New Zealand evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas stade is equivocal whilst isotopic records from speleothems, and other data, indicate warmer and wetter conditions from 10-7 ka, broadly conforming with records from mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere locations. Future advances will require sampling at shorter timescales, improvements in the accuracy and precision of existing dating methods and the development of new ones, extension of palaeoecological techniques to cover the full potential of new Zealand's diverse biota, and a stronger emphasis on quantification of palaeoclimatic parameters.

Description: Affecting an area of ca. 800 000 km2and killing up to 100 000 people, the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 is probably the greatest seismic disaster to have struck western Europe. The shock waves of the earthquake placed a temporary brake on the emerging rationalism of the European Enlightenment and attempts to explain the disaster in terms of human sinfulness coloured many contemporary accounts. Notwithstanding these difficulties, through careful archival research it has proved possible to obtain relatively value-free accounts of most aspects of the earthquake and to use these not only to model the physical characteristics of and damage caused by the earthquake, but also to consider the implications for present day hazard assessment and urban planning. This paper reviews the progress that has been made in: identifying source and faulting mechanisms; the processes involved in the generation and impact of tsunamis; damage caused to different types of building and the use being made of historical earthquakes of different sizes - of which the 1755 event is the largest - in defining future hazard scenarios for Lisbon and other areas of Iberia.

Description: This paper reports the first detailed palaeogeographical analysis of the environmental context of late Mesolithic shell midden sites in the lower Tagus area and focuses on the lower Muge valley, which contains an internationally significant Mesolithic record. The lower Muge valley fill comprises buried estuarine and fluvial environments contemporary with Mesolithic settlement. Holocene environmental and palaeogeographic changes influenced Mesolithic settlement-subsistence and midden accumulation. The sudden appearance of large late Mesolithic shell middens throughout Portugal represents a process of increased visibility and preferential preservation of the archaeological record. Prior to ~6100 cal. BC, aggrading valley floor environments did not occupy the entire width of the present lower Tagus floodplain and any sites located in the early Holocene valley are currently deeply buried. Shell midden occupation on terrace levels followed the establishment of aggrading estuarine environments, containing productive shell beds, near the mouth of the lower Muge valley at ~6100 cal. BC. The critical factors in site choice appear to have been the nearby presence of (i) rich shell resources and (ii) freshwater environments. Long-term site occupation and (semi-)sedentary behaviour was favoured by the local presence, for over 2000 years, of rich resources from estuarine, freshwater and open woodland environments. Site abandonment (~5300—4800 cal. BC) coincided with the regional establishment of an open landscape (~5000 cal. BC) and the contraction of local estuarine environments (~5555—3800 cal. BC). The associated gradual decrease in resources and cultural interaction with the expanding early Neolithic communities may have influenced Mesolithic site abandonment.

Description: We present the first step to quantitatively reconstruct vegetation cover in central Europe. Modern vegetation and pollen deposition were compared for 20 small to medium sized lakes and their catchments on the Swiss Plateau, a relatively flat region between the Jura Mountains and the Alps. To correct for the pollen dispersal bias in pollen assemblages, vegetation abundance was distance-weighted using three different approaches. The Relevant Source Area of Pollen (RSAP) and pollen productivity of 13 plant taxa were estimated using three different submodels of the Extended R-Value model (ERV-model). RSAP was 800 m regardless of the applied distance-weighting or ERV submodel. Pollen Productivity Estimates (PPE) varied from 10 to 〈 0.1 among pollen taxa and differed slightly between the models. Relative to grasses most trees were higher pollen producers and some were equal producers, whereas the herb taxa showed lower PPE. Generally, PPE from lowland Switzerland differ from those found in other European regions. Sampling strategies of vegetation and pollen samples are a likely cause for this variation. However, pollen productivity is also influenced by regionally different factors, such as climate, vegetation structure, geology and soil types. In addition, differences at genus or species level may occur between areas. Our comparison between the different regions in Europe shows that PPE of one region may not be directly applicable to other regions.

Description: Wetlands are poorly documented features of many landscapes, and there is often little understanding of the geomorphological controls on their origin, development and characteristics. This paper addresses the apparent paradox of wetlands in drylands, focusing particularly on the geomorphology and sedimentology of wetlands in southern Africa. Drylands are characterized by high (but variable) levels of aridity, reflecting low ratios between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, so wetlands can only exist where there are locally positive surface water balances for all or part of the year. Most moderate to large wetlands in drylands are thus maintained by river inflows that combine with other factors that serve to impede drainage or reduce infiltration, including faulting, rock outcrops, swelling soils, and ponding by tributary or aeolian sediments. Together with variations in sediment supply, vegetation communities, and levels of animal activity, this promotes a diverse range of wetlands that span a continuum from permanently inundated, to seasonally inundated, to ephemerally inundated. In detail, every wetland has a unique range of geomorphological and sedimentological characteristics but, at a general level, the dryland setting can be shown to impart some distinctive features. By comparison with humid region (tropical and temperate) wetlands, we propose that many wetlands in drylands are characterized by: 1) more frequent and/or longer periods of desiccation; 2) channels that commonly decrease in size and even disappear downstream; 3) higher levels of chemical sedimentation; 4) more frequent fires that reduce the potential for thick organic accumulations and promote aeolian activity; and 5) longer timescales of development that may extend far back into the Pleistocene. Additional studies of wetlands in different drylands may reveal other distinctive characteristics. Correct identification of the factors giving rise to wetlands, and improved understanding of the geomorphological and sedimentological processes governing their development, is vital for the design of sustainable management guidelines for these diverse yet fragile habitats.

Description: The glaciers and snowfields of the Southern Alps of New Zealand are the most significant in the Southern Hemisphere outside Antarctica and South America. The most substantial data on Southern Hemisphere glacier fluctuations come from New Zealand. The nature and behaviour of New Zealand's glaciers are also of wider scientific interest, because they are highly sensitive, high input-output systems that represent the temperate, maritime end of the glacier process-behaviour continuum. The areal extent and volume of glaciers and snow are outlined and an assessment is made of their scientific relevance and of their importance as resources and hazards. The main themes and progress of research on glaciers and snow, including snow avalanches, are reviewed. Glacier research has concentrated on only a few key glaciers and has focused on understanding glacier change. Main topics covered in this review relate to this focus and include fluctuations in termini, other mass balance signals and response to climate variability. Research on mass balance processes, glacier dynamics and glacier hydrology is also outlined. Seasonal snow has received less attention until recently. The main emphasis has been on quantification and past variability and its contribution to river flow, particularly in the most important hydroelectric power catchments of the South Island. Some field measurements have been made of the energy balance over snow. Research on snow avalanches has grown as the demands of winter recreation and alpine tourism have increased the hazard. Research first concentrated on production of avalanche atlases for the most hazardous areas and on quantifying the nature of the hazard. Subsequently, there has been a shift towards more process studies that are related to avalanche formation and runout distance. The main gaps in research on glaciers and snow are identified and key areas for future work proposed. There is an urgent need, in particular, for glacier mass-balance measurements. Extensive data on snow structure need to be synthesized. Satellite imagery should be used for monitoring of seasonal snow. Snow melt during northwest storms needs to be better defined. A more developed engineering approach is required for the study of snow avalanches. New Zealand offers exciting possibilities for the study of cryospheric processes, including response to future climate change.

Description: Mediterrranean regions are characterized by high spatiotemporal heterogeneity of vegetation patterns. Understanding the dynamic nature of these environments requires detailed data for wide regions regarding changes in their phyto-ecology, biomass and productivity. This article assesses the current status of satellite remote sensing in this field of application. Mapping the five main life-forms (physiognomic classes) in Mediterranean regions (forests, woodlands, scrub, dwarf shrubs and herbaceous growth) has attracted major attention in recent years. Methodologies developed for this purpose are based on the spectral, temporal and spatial (textural) information domains provided by satellite data. Wide regional vegetation mapping was achieved using phenological classification of vegetation indices derived mainly from NOAA AVHRR images. More detailed mapping was conducted with multispectral techniques in local areas using mainly Landsat TM images. Assessments of multispectral and multi-temporal categories have shown limitations in their applicability over wide regions due mainly to the heterogeneity of Mediterranean regions. This heterogeneity cannot be regarded as a simple mixing of life-forms over large areas but, rather, the formation of transitional zones of varying mixtures resulting from disturbance and recovery cycles. Productivity and biomass monitoring has been found to be an active methodological development due to the introduction of new off-nadir viewing sensors in the visible and infrared spectral bands, and because of the development of methodologies for the retrieval of biophysical information from Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) data. Studies of ecosystem evolution using satellite data were conducted mainly in the fields of fire disturbance and desertification. Further progress in the remote sensing of Mediterranean vegetation ecology requires a better synergy of sensors, methods and ancillary data.

Description: Pollen analysis of a 48 m AMS radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence from the Guadiana estuary provides the first record of Lateglacial and Holocene vegetation history in the Algarve province of Portugal. This paper focuses on the record of terrestrial pollen taxa, which document a series of forest expansions and declines during the period 13 000 cal. BP to 1600 cal. BP and provide insights into climate evolution in southwestern Iberia. The main vegetation phases identified in the Guadiana valley are (1) Lateglacial interstadial (Allerød) forest with Quercus and Pinus under a temperate, moist, continental climate; (2) a Younger Dryas forest decline ( Quercus) and expansion of pinewoods, xeric scrub and open ground habitats (with Juniperus , Artemisia, Ephedra distachya type, Centaurea scabiosa type) under arid and cold conditions; (3) an early Holocene forest/scrub/open-ground vegetation mosaic developing under a warm, dry and continental climate; (4) a maximum of Quercus forest and thermomediterranean evergreen taxa ( Olea, Phillyrea, Pistacia) reflecting a warm, moist oceanic climate between c. 9000 cal. BP and c. 5000 cal. BP; and (5) the expansion of shrublands with Cistaceae and Ericaceae under a drier climatic regime and increasing anthropogenic activity since c. 5000 cal. BP. Holocene episodes of maximum climatic aridity are identified in the record of xerophytic taxa ( Juniperus, Artemisia, Ephedra distachya type) centred around 10 200 cal. BP, 7800 cal. BP, 4800 cal. BP, 3100 cal. BP and 1700 cal. BP. Regional comparisons suggest a correlation of arid phases across southern Iberia and northwest Africa, which can be related to abrupt North Atlantic coolings (Bond events).

Description: A multiproxy record including benthic foraminifera, diatoms and XRF data of a marine sediment core from a SW Greenland fjord provides a detailed reconstruction of the oceanographic and climatic variations of the region during the last 4400 cal. years. The lower part of our record represents the final termination of the Holocene Thermal Maximum. After the onset of the `Neoglaciation' at approximately 3.2 ka cal. BP, the fjord system was subject to a number of marked hydrographical changes that were closely linked to the general climatic and oceanographic development of the Labrador Sea and the North Atlantic region. Our data show that increased advection of Atlantic water (Irminger Sea Water) from the West Greenland Current into the Labrador Sea was a typical feature of Northeast Atlantic cooling episodes such as the `Little Ice Age' and the `European Dark Ages', while the advection of Irminger Sea Water decreased significantly during warm episodes such as the `Mediaeval Warm Period' and the `Roman Warm Period'. Whereas the `Mediaeval Warm Period' was characterized by relatively cool climate as suggested by low meltwater production, the preceding `Dark Ages' display higher meltwater runoff and consequently warmer climate. When compared with European climate, these regional climate anomalies indicate persisting patterns of advection of colder, respectively warmer air masses in the study region during these periods and thus a long-term seesaw climate pattern between West Greenland and Europe.

Description: This article presents an overview of palaeofluvial geomorphology research in southern Africa. For the purposes of this article this includes South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland and Botswana. Although interest in fluvial systems has a long history in southern Africa, the scientific study of rivers was initiated by the discovery of the first alluvial diamond along the banks of the Orange River in 1867. Since then, significant progress has been made in unravelling the fluvial history of southern Africa from the early Archaean Ventersdorp Contact Reef River to modern channel process studies. The development of an understanding of palaeofluvial systems has occurred along two main lines. The first was alluvial diamond exploration work undertaken by the large mining houses. The second line was of a more ‘academic’ interest and included determining the impact of superimposition, tectonics, base level and climate changes. The review suggests that southern Africa fluvial systems have shown large-scale changes in drainage pattern, discharge and sediment yield and that these can be related to a complex set of causative factors including the geological template, the Jurassic rifting of Gondwana, tectonic episodes and climate change.

Description: Sedimentological studies of coarse-grained alluvial rivers reveal patterns of bed material sorting at a variety of spatial scales ranging from downstream fining over the length of the long profile to the vertical segregation of a coarse surface layer at the scale of individual particles. This article reviews the mechanisms that sort bed material by size during sediment entrainment, transport and deposition and discusses some of the inter-relationships that exist between patterns and processes of sediment sorting at different spatial and temporal scales. At initiation of motion, sorting can arise from the preferential entrainment of the finer fractions from the heterogeneous bed sediments. Bedload grain-size distributions are modified during transport as different size fractions are routed along different transport pathways under the influence of nonuniform bed topography and associated flow patterns, and during deposition as the variable pocket geometry of the rough bed surface and turbulence intensity of the flow control the size of the particles that deposit. The review highlights the poor understanding of the many feedback linkages that exist between patterns and processes of sediment sorting at different scales and the need for a greater awareness of the spatial and temporal bounds of these linkages.

Description: Wherever people gain their livelihood in mountains and steeplands, the productive capacity of the soils they use is likely to be affected by mass movement erosion. The impacts of mass movement erosion on land productivity are significant but under-rated in the scientific literature. Impacts on cropping are here reported from 15 countries in south and southeast Asia, east Africa, the Caribbean and Melanesia, but accounts are generalized or anecdotal, and do not quantify crop loss or damage attributable to mass movement separately from that due to surface or fluvial erosion. Impacts on pastoral grazing have been studied in New Zealand, where production losses of up to 80% at field scale, and up to 20% at farm scale, have been measured. Studies in the Pacific Northwest coastal forests of North America show plantation forest wood volume declines by 35-50% on eroded sites. Mass movement impacts on production from tropical forests or agroforestry appear to be as yet undocumented.The reasons for lack of documentation are, first, that most soil erosion-productivity research has been done on gently sloping cropland, which is subject to surface rather than mass movement erosion. Secondly, geomorphological research in steeplands has dealt with mass movement as a hazard to human life, settlements and infrastructure -with limited identification of its contribution to sediment loads in rivers, and disregarding its impact on land productivity.We suggest there are many other countries where significant impacts are likely to occur, and that erosion-productivity studies should pay more attention to this type of erosion. Studies should not be restricted to cropland, but also extend to grazing land, plantation forestry, agro-forestry and traditional uses of natural forest as mass movement appears to affect all these forms of land-based production, particularly in densely populated steeplands whether tropical or temperate. Topics needing study are the documentation and costing of productivity losses, ways to reduce mass movement impacts on productivity, and ways to enhance recovery of soil on eroded areas (e.g., revegetation with fertility-building shrubs and legumes).

Description: Remote sensing has demonstrated wide applicability in the area of estimating and mapping forest physical and structural features. Focus in recent years has been directed towards measuring the biophysical/physiological character of forest ecosystems in order to estimate and predict forest ecosystem health and sustainability. The following reviews the relationship between forest condition and reflectance; remote-sensing measurements (and derivatives) that provide biophysical/physiological information; and the potential of hyperspectral sensors in the measurement of these parameters.

Description: This article draws attention to the potential of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for studies of patterns and mechanisms of water infiltration into soils, and stresses the vitally important need for collaboration between hydrologists, soil physicists and MRI experts. A brief introduction of the principles of MRI is given. This is followed by a review of the literature relating to nonpreferential infiltration, preferential infiltration exhibiting fingering and preferential infiltration involving a wide range of macropore flow. These differing degrees of complexity of infiltration dynamics require the employment of noninvasive and nondestructive techniques for their detailed investigation. Finally, an overview of applications of MRI to the detection of the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture and its changes is given. General conclusions are drawn from previous and current research, and the potential of the application of MRI to infiltration studies is summarized.

Description: The analysis and interpretation of remote sensing data facilitates investigation of land surface complexity on large spatial scales. We introduce here a geometrically high-resolution data set provided by the airborne High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC-A). The sensor records digital multispectral and panchromatic stereo bands from which a very high-resolution ground elevation model can be produced. After introducing the basic principles of the HRSC technique and data, applications of HRSC data within the multidisciplinary Research Training Group 437 are presented. Applications include geomorphologic mapping, geomorphometric analysis, mapping of surficial grain-size distribution, rock glacier kinematic analysis, vegetation monitoring and three-dimensional landform visualization. A final evaluation of the HRSC data based on three years of multipurpose usage concludes this presentation. A combination of image and elevation data opens up various possibilities for visualization and three-dimensional analysis of the land surface, especially in geomorphology. Additionally, the multispectral imagery of the HRSC data has potential for land cover mapping and vegetation monitoring. We consider HRSC data a valuable source of high-resolution terrain information with high applicability in physical geography and earth system science.

Description: Following the Holocene thermal maximum, the Greenland ice sheet began to expand, and many local glaciers formed. The maximum extent of most outlet glaciers from the Inland Ice was reached around 100 to 200 years ago. However, some exceptions have been recorded. In southern Greenland, the Neoglacial Narssarssuaq stade marks an older re-advance that exceeded the historical advance. The dating of the Narssarssuaq stade has been much debated. Here we present new radiocarbon dates from a sediment core collected from a small lake within the moraines formed during this stade. A minimum age for the Narssarssuaq stade of around 1200 yr BP is suggested from the dates.

Description: Fourteen hillslope soil profiles were sampled under natural vegetation (ie, grassland or forest) and plantations in the Nilgiri highlands, Southern India. Delta13C ratios were measured at different depths and14C ages determined for six profiles. In these highland soils where the turnover rate of organic matter is extremely low, the δ13C ratios of entire soil profiles have recorded signatures of past land cover. By correlating the data with results previously obtained from peat bogs and with knowledge concerning the history of human settlement, we distinguish three contrasting trajectories of palaeoenvironmental history and landscape change since the last glacial maximum. In the Central Nilgiris, between 18 and 10 ka BP, forest expansion occurred through the conjunction of a wetter climate (the maximum of southwest monsoon-related humidity occurring at c. 11 ka BP) and higher temperatures; since 10 ka BP, the reversal towards grassland vegetation is attributed to drier conditions. In the Western Nilgiris, where strong southwest monsoon winds permanently restrict forest patches to sheltered valley sites, steady but limited expansion of forest from 18 ka BP to the present is recorded and attributed to rising temperatures. The Southern and Eastern Nilgiris, where the northeast monsoon contributes 20% of the annual rainfall, are the less sensitive to fluctuations in the southwest monsoon. In these areas, rapid and extensive expansion of forest occurred mainly as a consequence of higher temperatures from 18 ka BP to the present. Massive deforestation by Badaga cultivators and Europeans planters followed after the sixteenth century AD.As a result, and in contrast with the Western Nilgiris where the land cover mosaic has remained remarkably stable in the last 18 ka BP, the current landscape differs sharply from the land cover pattern detected by the soil record.

Description: The paradigm of landscape ecology describes a landscape as a mosaic of landscape elements including the matrix, patches and corridors. Corridors are described as linear disruptions to the matrix, produced by anthropogenic actions or by streams which produce riparian corridors. Snow avalanches and debris flows are other geomorphic processes that should be considered as geomorphic process corridors rather than as disturbance patches. They possess requisite linearity, and they accomplish the five functions of a corridor: habitat, conduit, filter, source and sink. The definition of corridor in landscape ecology should be modified to embrace the concept of geomorphic process corridors.

Description: A characteristic of beaver ecology is their ability to build dams and, thus, to modify the landscape to increase its suitability for their occupation. This ability gives beaver great significance as a geomorphic agent. In order to review the hydrogeomorphological effects of beaver dam-building activity, this article places a context on the likely distribution and magnitude of beaver activity by considering the spatial and temporal variability of distributions of beaver and the habitat characteristics which might favour the establishment of substantial beaver populations. A description is then given of the nature and potential dimensions of instream structures built by beaver and the environmental conditions under which dam building has been observed to occur. The hydrogeomorphological impact of dam building is then appraised both locally and at the landscape scale, illustrating the very significant process modification caused by beaver. While the European beaver, Castor fiber, is the main focus of this review, it necessarily draws extensively on the much larger literature concerning the North American beaver (Castor canadensis).

Description: With global periglacial geomorphology undergoing significant advancements, it is appropriate to review the past and current status of such research in Africa. A brief historical overview of research outputs and approaches is presented for the respective African regions. Potential future quantitative periglacial research needs and approaches identified for Africa include: the examination of active periglacial processes, the identification of landforms and ground-ice forms, the potential for environmental change and the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction, and the application of periglacial studies.It is demonstrated that while periglacial geomorphology has progressed significantly in southern Africa, there has been little or no advancement elsewhere on the continent over the last two decades. None the less, on a more positive note, it is concluded that Africa has considerable potential in future global periglacial research.

Description: Remote sensing has served as an efficient method of gathering data about glaciers since its emergence. The recent advent of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS) has created an effective means by which the acquired data are analysed for the effective monitoring and mapping of temporal dynamics of glaciers. A large number of researchers have taken advantage of remote sensing, GIS and GPS in their studies of glaciers. These applications are comprehensively reviewed in this paper. This review shows that glacial features identifiable from aerial photographs and satellite imagery include spatial extent, transient snowline, equilibrium line elevation, accumulation and ablation zones, and differentiation of ice/snow. Digital image processing (e.g., image enhancement, spectral ratioing and automatic classification) improves the ease and accuracy of mapping these parameters. The traditional visible light/infrared remote sensing of two-dimensional glacier distribution has been extended to three-dimensional volume estimation and dynamic monitoring using radar imagery and GPS. Longitudinal variations in glacial extent have been detected from multi-temporal images in GIS. However, the detected variations have neither been explored nor modelled from environmental and topographic variables. GPS has been utilized independent of remote sensing and GIS to determine glacier ice velocity and to obtain information about glacier surfaces. Therefore, the potential afforded by the integration of nonconventional remote sensing (e.g., SAR interferometry) with GIS and GPS still remains to be realized in glaciology. The emergence of new satellite images will make remote sensing of glaciology more predictive, more global and towards longer terms.

Description: A widening variety of applications is diversifying geomorphometry ( digital terrain modelling), the quantitative study of topography. An amalgam of earth science, mathematics, engineering and computer science, the discipline has been revolutionized by the computer manipulation of gridded terrain heights, or digital elevation models (DEMs). Its rapid expansion continues. This article reviews the remarkable diversity of recent morphometric work in 15 selected topics and discusses their significance and prospects. The quantitative analysis of industrial microsurface topography is introduced to the earth science community. The 14 other topics are Internet access to geomorphometry; global DEMs; DEM modelling of channel networks; self-organized criticality; fractal and wavelet analysis; soil resources; landslide hazards; barchan dunes; harvesting wind energy; sea-ice surfaces; sea-floor abyssal hills; Japanese work in morphometry; and the emerging fields of landscape ecology and image understanding. Closing remarks note reasons for the diversity within geomorphometry, speculate on future trends and recommend creating a unified field of surface representation.

Description: Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from travel – a GIS-based study Geographica Helvetica, 70, 185-192, 2015 Author(s): S. Kuonen Conferences, meetings and congresses are an important part of today's economic and scientific world. But the environmental impact, especially from greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel, can be extensive. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for the warming of the atmosphere and oceans. This study draws on the need to quantify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel activities and aims to give suggestions for organizers and participants on possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrated on the example of the European Geography Association (EGEA) Annual Congress 2013 in Wasilkow, Poland. The lack of a comprehensive methodology for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from travel led to an outline of a methodology that uses geographic information systems (GIS) to calculate travel distances. The calculation of travel distances in GIS is adapted from actual transportation infrastructure, derived from the open-source platform OpenStreetMap. The methodology also aims to assess the possibilities to reduce GHG emissions by choosing different means of transportation and a more central conference location. The results of the participants of the EGEA congress, who shared their travel data for this study, show that the total travel distance adds up to 238 000 km, with average travel distance of 2429 km per participant. The travel activities of the participants in the study result in total GHG emissions of 39 300 kg CO 2 -eq including both outward and return trip. On average a participant caused GHG emissions of 401 kg CO 2 -eq. In addition, the analysis of the travel data showed differences in travel behaviour depending on the distance between conference site and point of origin. The findings on travel behaviour have then been used to give an estimation of total greenhouse gas emissions from travel for all participants of the conference, which result in a total amount of 79 711 kg CO 2 -eq. The potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by substituting short flights with train rides and car rides with bus and train rides is limited. Only 6 % of greenhouse gas emissions could be saved by applying these measures. Further considerable savings could only be made by substituting longer flights (32.6 %) or choosing a more central conference location (26.3 %).

Description: Uncertainties in calculating precipitation climatology in East Asia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7765-7783, 2015 Author(s): J. Kim and S. K. Park This study examines the uncertainty in calculating the fundamental climatological characteristics of precipitation in the East Asia region from multiple fine-resolution gridded analysis datasets based on in-situ rain gauge observations. Five observation-based gridded precipitation datasets are used to derive the long-term means, standard deviations in lieu of interannual variability and linear trends over the 28-year period from 1980 to 2007. Both the annual and summer (June–July–August) mean precipitation is examined. The agreement amongst these precipitation datasets are examined using multiple metrics including the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) defined as the ratio between long-term means and the corresponding standard deviations, and Taylor diagrams which allows examinations of the pattern correlation, the standard deviation, and the centered root mean square error. It is found that the five gauge-based precipitation analysis datasets agree well in the long-term mean and interannual variability in most of the East Asia region including eastern China, Manchuria, South Korea, and Japan, which are densely populated and have fairly high density observation networks. The regions of large inter-dataset variations include Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, northern Indo-China, and North Korea. The regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or extreme high elevations. Unlike the long-term mean and interannual variability, agreements between datasets in the linear trend is weak, both for the annual and summer mean values. In most of the East Asia region, the SNR for the linear trend is below 0.5, i.e., the inter-dataset variability exceeds the multi-data ensemble mean. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of long-term means among these datasets occurs both in the spatial pattern and variability, but the uncertainty for the interannual variability and time trend is much larger in the variability than in the pattern correlation. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over the East Asia region.

Description: Qualitative soil moisture assessment in semi-arid Africa – the role of experience and training on inter-rater reliability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3505-3516, 2015 Author(s): M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert Soil and water management is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions to enhance agricultural productivity. During periods of water scarcity, soil moisture differences are important indicators of the soil water deficit and are traditionally used for allocating water resources among farmers of a village community. Here we present a simple, inexpensive soil wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators which one can see or touch on the soil surface. It incorporates the local farmers' knowledge on the best soil moisture conditions for seeding and brick making in the semi-arid environment of the study site near Arusha, Tanzania. The scheme was tested twice in 2014 with farmers, students and experts (April: 40 persons, June: 25 persons) for inter-rater reliability, bias of individuals and functional relation between qualitative and quantitative soil moisture values. During the test in April farmers assigned the same wetness class in 46 % of all cases, while students and experts agreed on about 60 % of all cases. Students who had been trained in how to apply the method gained higher inter-rater reliability than their colleagues with only a basic introduction. When repeating the test in June, participants were given improved instructions, organized in small subgroups, which resulted in a higher inter-rater reliability among farmers. In 66 % of all classifications, farmers assigned the same wetness class and the spread of class assignments was smaller. This study demonstrates that a wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators is a robust tool and can be applied successfully regardless of experience in crop growing and education level when an in-depth introduction and training is provided. The use of a simple and clear layout of the assessment form is important for reliable wetness class assignments.

Description: Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream–aquifer exchanges Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7727-7764, 2015 Author(s): J. Zhu, C. L. Winter, and Z. Wang Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River Basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream–aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow-paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream–aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW simulation environment, and the PEST tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop log-normally distributed conductivity ( K ) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow-paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer–stream exchanges. Since surface water–groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Description: Near–surface air temperature and snow skin temperature comparison from CREST-SAFE station data with MODIS land surface temperature data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7665-7687, 2015 Author(s): C. L. Pérez Díaz, T. Lakhankar, P. Romanov, J. Muñoz, R. Khanbilvardi, and Y. Yu Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable (commonly studied to understand the hydrological cycle) that helps drive the energy balance and water exchange between the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. One observable constituent of much importance in the land surface water balance model is snow. Snow cover plays a critical role in the regional to global scale hydrological cycle because rain-on-snow with warm air temperatures accelerates rapid snow-melt, which is responsible for the majority of the spring floods. Accurate information on near-surface air temperature ( T -air) and snow skin temperature ( T -skin) helps us comprehend the energy and water balances in the Earth's hydrological cycle. T -skin is critical in estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes over snow covered areas because incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes from the snow mass and the air temperature above make it different from the average snowpack temperature. This study investigates the correlation between MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data and observed T -air and T -skin data from NOAA-CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE) for the winters of 2013 and 2014. LST satellite validation is imperative because high-latitude regions are significantly affected by climate warming and there is a need to aid existing meteorological station networks with the spatially continuous measurements provided by satellites. Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data. Additional findings show that there is a negative trend demonstrating that the air minus snow skin temperature difference is inversely proportional to cloud cover. To a lesser extent, it will be examined whether the surface properties at the site are representative for the LST properties within the instrument field of view.

Description: Does drought alter hydrological functions in forest soils? An infiltration experiment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7689-7725, 2015 Author(s): K. F. Gimbel, H. Puhlmann, and M. Weiler The water cycle is expected to change in future and severely affect precipitation patterns across central Europe and in other parts of the world, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Usually, it is assumed that system properties, like soil properties, remain stable and will not be affected by drought events. To study if this assumption is appropriate, we address the effects of drought on the infiltration behavior of forest soils using dye tracer experiments on six sites in three regions across Germany, which were forced into drought conditions. The sites cover clayey, loamy and sandy textured soils. In each region, we compared a deciduous and a coniferous forest stand to address differences between the main tree species. The results of the dye tracer experiments show clear evidence for changes in infiltration behavior at the sites. The infiltration changed at the clayey plots from regular and homogeneous flow to fast preferential flow. Similar behavior was observed at the loamy plots, where large areas in the upper layers remained dry, displaying signs of strong water repellency. This was confirmed by WDPT tests, which revealed, in all except one plot, moderate to severe water repellency. Water repellency was also accountable for the change of regular infiltration to fingered flow in the sandy soils. The results of this study suggest that the "drought-history" or generally the climatic conditions in the past of a soil are more important than the actual antecedent soil moisture status regarding hydrophobicity and infiltration behavior; and also, that drought effects on infiltration need to be considered in hydrological models to obtain realistic predictions concerning water quality and quantity in runoff and groundwater recharge.

Description: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model The Cryosphere, 9, 1505-1521, 2015 Author(s): S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2 . Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 °C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 °C −1 in the new model version. However, the near-surface permafrost area is still projected to approximately half by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Description: Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4147-4203, 2015 Author(s): J. Seguinot, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, M. Margold, and J. Kleman Despite more than a century of geological observations, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains poorly understood in terms of its former extent, volume and dynamics. Although geomorphological evidence is abundant, its complexity is such that whole ice-sheet reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (61.9–56.5 ka) and 2 (23.2–16.8 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.6–6.2 ka).

Description: Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1757-1761, 2015 Author(s): M. Raschke In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

Description: Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3541-3556, 2015 Author(s): M. Majerova, B. T. Neilson, N. M. Schmadel, J. M. Wheaton, and C. J. Snow Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater–surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.

Description: Does the Budyko curve reflect a maximum power state of hydrological systems? A backward analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7821-7842, 2015 Author(s): M. Westhoff, E. Zehe, P. Archambeau, and B. Dewals Almost all catchments plot within a small envelope around the Budyko curve. This apparent behaviour suggests that organizing principles may play a role in the evolution of catchments. In this paper we applied the thermodynamic principle of maximum power as the organizing principle. In a top-down approach we derived mathematical formulations of the relation between relative wetness and gradients driving runoff and evaporation for a simple one-box model. We did this in such a way that when the conductances are optimized with the maximum power principle, the steady state behaviour of the model leads exactly to a point on the Budyko curve. Subsequently we derived gradients that, under constant forcing, resulted in a Budyko curve following the asymptotes closely. With these gradients we explored the sensitivity of dry spells and dynamics in actual evaporation. Despite the simplicity of the model, catchment observations compare reasonably well with the Budyko curves derived with dynamics in rainfall and evaporation. This indicates that the maximum power principle may be used (i) to derive the Budyko curve and (ii) to move away from the empiricism in free parameters present in many Budyko functions. Future work should focus on better representing the boundary conditions of real catchments and eventually adding more complexity to the model.

Description: Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7785-7819, 2015 Author(s): J. K. Zheng, G. Sun, W. H. Li, X. X. Yu, C. Zhang, Y. B. Gong, and L. H. Tu Miyun reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contributes the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in Miyun reservoir are debatable in a non-stationary climate in the past four decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into Miyun reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies, this work objectively identified breakpoints by analyzing the long-term historical hydrometeorology and land cover records. To effectively study the different impacts of the climate variation and land cover change during different sub-periods, annual water balance model (AWB), climate elasticity model (CEM), and rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant decrease in annual streamflow ( p 〈 0.01), a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration ( p 〈 0.01), and an insignificant negative trend in annual precipitation ( p 〉 0.1) during 1961–2008. Combined with historical records, we identified two breakpoints as in 1983 and 1999 for the period 1961–2008 by the sequential Mann–Kendall Test and Double Mass Curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to Miyun reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in evapotranspiration rates due to the expansion of forestlands and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. Our study found that the contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the 2000s. We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the goal of water supply of Miyun reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management.

Description: Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1695-1709, 2015 Author(s): J. P. Sierra, M. Casas-Prat, M. Virgili, C. Mösso, and A. Sánchez-Arcilla The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

Description: Utilisation of CryoSat-2 SAR altimeter in operational ice charting The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4117-4145, 2015 Author(s): E. Rinne and M. Similä We present methods to utilise Cryosat-2 (CS-2) Synthetic Aperture (SAR) mode data in operational ice charting. We compare CS-2 data qualitatively to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mosaics over Barents and Kara seas. Furthermore, we compare the CS-2 to archived operational ice charts. We present distributions of four CS-2 waveform parameters for different ice types as presented in the ice charts. We go on to present an automatic classification method for CS-2 data which, after training with operational ice charts, is capable of determining open water from ice with a hit rate of 〉 90 %. The training data is dynamically updated every five days using the most recent 15 days CS-2 data and operative ice charts. This helps the adaption of the classifier to the evolving ice/snow conditions throughout winter. The classifier is also capable of detecting three different ice classes (thin and thick first year ice as well as old ice) with success rates good enough for the output to be usable to support operational ice charting. Finally, we present a near real time CS-2 product just plotting the waveform characteristics and conclude that even such a simple product is usable for some of the needs of ice charting.

Description: Relating seasonal dynamics of enhanced vegetation index to the recycling of water in two endorheic river basins in north-west China Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3387-3403, 2015 Author(s): M. A. Matin and C. P.-A. Bourque This study associates the dynamics of enhanced vegetation index in lowland desert oases to the recycling of water in two endorheic (hydrologically closed) river basins in Gansu Province, north-west China, along a gradient of elevation zones and land cover types. Each river basin was subdivided into four elevation zones representative of (i) oasis plains and foothills, and (ii) low-, (iii) mid-, and (iv) high-mountain elevations. Comparison of monthly vegetation phenology with precipitation and snowmelt dynamics within the same basins over a 10-year period (2000–2009) suggested that the onset of the precipitation season (cumulative % precipitation 〉 7–8 %) in the mountains, typically in late April to early May, was triggered by the greening of vegetation and increased production of water vapour at the base of the mountains. Seasonal evolution of in-mountain precipitation correlated fairly well with the temporal variation in oasis-vegetation coverage and phenology characterised by monthly enhanced vegetation index, yielding coefficients of determination of 0.65 and 0.85 for the two basins. Convergent cross-mapping of related time series indicated bi-directional causality (feedback) between the two variables. Comparisons between same-zone monthly precipitation amounts and enhanced vegetation index provided weaker correlations. Start of the growing season in the oases was shown to coincide with favourable spring warming and discharge of meltwater from low- to mid-elevations of the Qilian Mountains (zones 1 and 2) in mid-to-late March. In terms of plant requirement for water, mid-seasonal development of oasis vegetation was seen to be controlled to a greater extent by the production of rain in the mountains. Comparison of water volumes associated with in-basin production of rainfall and snowmelt with that associated with evaporation seemed to suggest that about 90 % of the available liquid water (i.e. mostly in the form of direct rainfall and snowmelt in the mountains) was recycled locally.

Description: Investigating suspended sediment dynamics in contrasting agricultural catchments using ex situ turbidity-based suspended sediment monitoring Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3349-3363, 2015 Author(s): S. C. Sherriff, J. S. Rowan, A. R. Melland, P. Jordan, O. Fenton, and D. Ó hUallacháin Soil erosion and suspended sediment (SS) pose risks to chemical and ecological water quality. Agricultural activities may accelerate erosional fluxes from bare, poached or compacted soils, and enhance connectivity through modified channels and artificial drainage networks. Storm-event fluxes dominate SS transport in agricultural catchments; therefore, high temporal-resolution monitoring approaches are required, but can be expensive and technically challenging. Here, the performance of in situ turbidity sensors, conventionally installed submerged at the river bankside, is compared with installations where river water is delivered to sensors ex situ, i.e. within instrument kiosks on the riverbank, at two experimental catchments (Grassland B and Arable B). The in situ and ex situ installations gave comparable results when calibrated against storm-period, depth-integrated SS data, with total loads at Grassland B estimated at 12 800 and 15 400 t, and 22 600 and 24 900 t at Arable B, respectively. The absence of spurious turbidity readings relating to bankside debris around the in situ sensor and its greater security make the ex situ sensor more robust. The ex situ approach was then used to characterise SS dynamics and fluxes in five intensively managed agricultural catchments in Ireland which feature a range of landscape characteristics and land use pressures. Average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was below the Freshwater Fish Directive (78/659/EEC) guideline of 25 mg L −1 , and the continuous hourly record demonstrated that exceedance occurred less than 12 % of the observation year. Soil drainage class and proportion of arable land were key controls determining flux rates, but all catchments reported a high degree of inter-annual variability associated with variable precipitation patterns compared to the long-term average. Poorly drained soils had greater sensitivity to runoff and soil erosion, particularly in catchments with periods of bare soils. Well drained soils were less sensitive to erosion even on arable land; however, under extreme rainfall conditions, all bare soils remain a high sediment loss risk. Analysis of storm-period and seasonal dynamics (over the long term) using high-resolution monitoring would be beneficial to further explore the impact of landscape, climate and land use characteristics on SS export.

Description: Landscape heterogeneity drives contrasting concentration–discharge relationships in shale headwater catchments Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3333-3347, 2015 Author(s): E. M. Herndon, A. L. Dere, P. L. Sullivan, D. Norris, B. Reynolds, and S. L. Brantley Solute concentrations in stream water vary with discharge in patterns that record complex feedbacks between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. In a comparison of three shale-underlain headwater catchments located in Pennsylvania, USA (the forested Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory), and Wales, UK (the peatland-dominated Upper Hafren and forest-dominated Upper Hore catchments in the Plynlimon forest), dissimilar concentration–discharge ( C – Q ) behaviors are best explained by contrasting landscape distributions of soil solution chemistry – especially dissolved organic carbon (DOC) – that have been established by patterns of vegetation and soil organic matter (SOM). Specifically, elements that are concentrated in organic-rich soils due to biotic cycling (Mn, Ca, K) or that form strong complexes with DOC (Fe, Al) are spatially heterogeneous in pore waters because organic matter is heterogeneously distributed across the catchments. These solutes exhibit non-chemostatic behavior in the streams, and solute concentrations either decrease (Shale Hills) or increase (Plynlimon) with increasing discharge. In contrast, solutes that are concentrated in soil minerals and form only weak complexes with DOC (Na, Mg, Si) are spatially homogeneous in pore waters across each catchment. These solutes are chemostatic in that their stream concentrations vary little with stream discharge, likely because these solutes are released quickly from exchange sites in the soils during rainfall events. Furthermore, concentration–discharge relationships of non-chemostatic solutes changed following tree harvest in the Upper Hore catchment in Plynlimon, while no changes were observed for chemostatic solutes, underscoring the role of vegetation in regulating the concentrations of certain elements in the stream. These results indicate that differences in the hydrologic connectivity of organic-rich soils to the stream drive differences in concentration behavior between catchments. As such, in catchments where SOM is dominantly in lowlands (e.g., Shale Hills), we infer that non-chemostatic elements associated with organic matter are released to the stream early during rainfall events, whereas in catchments where SOM is dominantly in uplands (e.g., Plynlimon), these non-chemostatic elements are released later during rainfall events. The distribution of SOM across the landscape is thus a key component for predictive models of solute transport in headwater catchments.

Description: Future changes in flash flood frequency and intensity of the Tha Di River (Thailand) based on rainfall–runoff modeling and advanced delta change scaling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7327-7352, 2015 Author(s): S. Hilgert, A. Wagner, and S. Fuchs As a consequence of climate change, extreme and flood-causing precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, especially in today's high-precipitation areas. During the north-east monsoon seasons, Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand is flash-flooded every 2.22 years on average. This study investigates frequency and intensity of harmful discharges of the Tha Di River regarding the IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2. The regional climate model (RCM) PRECIS was transformed using the advanced delta change (ADC) method. The hydrologic response model HBV-Light was calibrated to the catchment and supplied with ADC-scaled daily precipitation and temperature data for 2010–2089. Under the A2 (B2) scenario, the flood threshold exceedance frequency on average increases by 133 % (decreases by 10 %), average flood intensity increases by 3 % (decreases by 2 %) and the annual top five discharge peaks intensities increase by 46 % (decrease by 5 %). Yearly precipitation sums increase by 30 % (10 %) towards the end of the century. The A2 scenario predicts a precipitation increase during the rainy season, which intensifies flood events; while increases projected exclusively for the dry season are not expected to cause floods. Retention volume demand of past events was calculated to be up to 12 × 10 6 m 3 . Flood risks are staying at high levels under the B2 scenario or increase dramatically under the A2 scenario. Results show that the RCM scaling process is inflicted with systematic biases but is crucial to investigate small, mountainous catchments. Improvement of scaling techniques should therefore accompany the development towards high-resolution climate models.

Description: A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3365-3385, 2015 Author(s): V. Thiemig, B. Bisselink, F. Pappenberger, and J. Thielen The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (〉 1 week) and large affected areas (〉 10 000 km 2 ) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Description: A comprehensive filtering scheme for high-resolution estimation of the water balance components from high-precision lysimeters Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3405-3418, 2015 Author(s): M. Hannes, U. Wollschläger, F. Schrader, W. Durner, S. Gebler, T. Pütz, J. Fank, G. von Unold, and H.-J. Vogel Large weighing lysimeters are currently the most precise method to directly measure all components of the terrestrial water balance in parallel via the built-in weighing system. As lysimeters are exposed to several external forces such as management practices or wind influencing the weighing data, the calculated fluxes of precipitation and evapotranspiration can be altered considerably without having applied appropriate corrections to the raw data. Therefore, adequate filtering schemes for obtaining most accurate estimates of the water balance components are required. In this study, we use data from the TERENO (TERrestrial ENvironmental Observatories) SoilCan research site in Bad Lauchstädt to develop a comprehensive filtering procedure for high-precision lysimeter data, which is designed to deal with various kinds of possible errors starting from the elimination of large disturbances in the raw data resulting e.g., from management practices all the way to the reduction of noise caused e.g., by moderate wind. Furthermore, we analyze the influence of averaging times and thresholds required by some of the filtering steps on the calculated water balance and investigate the ability of two adaptive filtering methods (the adaptive window and adaptive threshold filter (AWAT filter; Peters et al., 2014), and a new synchro filter applicable to the data from a set of several lysimeters) to further reduce the filtering error. Finally, we take advantage of the data sets of all 18 lysimeters running in parallel at the Bad Lauchstädt site to evaluate the performance and accuracy of the proposed filtering scheme. For the tested time interval of 2 months, we show that the estimation of the water balance with high temporal resolution and good accuracy is possible. The filtering code can be downloaded from the journal website as Supplement to this publication.

Description: Assimilation of Antarctic velocity observations provides evidence for uncharted pinning points The Cryosphere, 9, 1427-1443, 2015 Author(s): J. J. Fürst, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, N. Merino, L. Tavard, J. Mouginot, N. Gourmelen, and O. Gagliardini In ice flow modelling, the use of control methods to assimilate the dynamic and geometric state of an ice body has become common practice. These methods have primarily focussed on inverting for one of the two least known properties in glaciology, namely the basal friction coefficient or the ice viscosity parameter. Here, we present an approach to infer both properties simultaneously for the whole of the Antarctic ice sheet. After the assimilation, the root-mean-square deviation between modelled and observed surface velocities attains 8.7 m a −1 for the entire domain, with a slightly higher value of 14.0 m a −1 for the ice shelves. An exception in terms of the velocity mismatch is the Thwaites Glacier Ice Shelf, where the RMS value is almost 70 m a −1 . The reason is that the underlying Bedmap2 geometry ignores the presence of an ice rise, which exerts major control on the dynamics of the eastern part of the ice shelf. On these grounds, we suggest an approach to account for pinning points not included in Bedmap2 by locally allowing an optimisation of basal friction during the inversion. In this way, the velocity mismatch on the ice shelf of Thwaites Glacier is more than halved. A characteristic velocity mismatch pattern emerges for unaccounted pinning points close to the marine shelf front. This pattern is exploited to manually identify seven uncharted features around Antarctica that exert significant resistance to the shelf flow. Potential pinning points are detected on Fimbul, West, Shackleton, Nickerson and Venable ice shelves. As pinning points can provide substantial resistance to shelf flow, with considerable consequences if they became ungrounded in the future, the model community is in need of detailed bathymetry there. Our data assimilation points to some of these dynamically important features not present in Bedmap2 and implicitly quantifies their relevance.

Description: Long-term coastal-polynya dynamics in the Southern Weddell Sea from MODIS thermal-infrared imagery The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3959-3993, 2015 Author(s): S. Paul, S. Willmes, and G. Heinemann Based upon high-resolution thermal-infrared Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery in combination with ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data, we derived long-term polynya parameters such as polynya area, thin-ice thickness distribution and ice-production rates from daily cloud-cover corrected thin-ice thickness composites. Our study is based on a thirteen year investigation period (2002–2014) for the austral winter (1 April to 30 September) in the Antarctic Southern Weddell Sea. The focus lies on coastal polynyas which are important hot spots for new-ice formation, bottom-water formation and heat/moisture release into the atmosphere. MODIS has the capability to resolve even very narrow coastal polynyas. Its major disadvantage is the sensor limitation due to cloud cover. We make use of a newly developed and adapted spatial feature reconstruction scheme to account for cloud-covered areas. We find the sea-ice areas in front of Ronne and Brunt Ice Shelf to be the most active with an annual average polynya area of 3018 ± 1298 and 3516 ± 1420 km 2 as well as an accumulated volume ice production of 31 ± 13 and 31 ± 12 km 3 , respectively. For the remaining four regions, estimates amount to 421 ± 294 km 2 and 4 ± 3 km 3 (Antarctic Peninsula), 1148 ± 432 km 2 and 12 ± 5 km 3 (Iceberg A23A), 901 ± 703 km 2 and 10 ± 8 km 3 (Filchner Ice Shelf) as well as 499 ± 277 km 2 and 5 ± 2 km 3 (Coats Land). Our findings are discussed in comparison to recent studies based on coupled sea-ice/ocean models and passive-microwave satellite imagery, each investigating different parts of the Southern Weddell Sea.

Description: Climatic controls and climate proxy potential of Lewis Glacier, Mt Kenya The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 3887-3924, 2015 Author(s): R. Prinz, L. I. Nicholson, T. Mölg, W. Gurgiser, and G. Kaser The Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya is one of the best studied tropical glaciers and has experienced considerable retreat since a maximum extent in the late 19th century (L19). From distributed mass and energy balance modelling, this study evaluates the current sensitivity of the surface mass and energy balance to climatic drivers, explores climate conditions under which the L19 maximum extent might have sustained, and discusses the potential for using the glacier retreat to quantify climate change. Multiyear meteorological measurements at 4828 m provide data for input, optimization and evaluation of a spatially distributed glacier mass balance model to quantify the exchanges of energy and mass at the glacier–atmosphere interface. Currently the glacier loses mass due to the imbalance between insufficient accumulation and enhanced melt, because radiative energy gains cannot be compensated by turbulent energy sinks. Exchanging model input data with synthetic climate scenarios, which were sampled from the meteorological measurements and account for coupled climatic variable perturbations, reveal that the current mass balance is most sensitive to changes in atmospheric moisture (via its impact on solid precipitation, cloudiness and surface albedo). Positive mass balances result from scenarios with an increase of annual (seasonal) accumulation of 30 % (100 %), compared to values observed today, without significant changes in air temperature required. Scenarios with lower air temperatures are drier and associated with lower accumulation and increased net radiation due to reduced cloudiness and albedo. If the scenarios currently producing positive mass balances are applied to the L19 extent, negative mass balances are the result, meaning that the conditions required to sustain the glacier in its L19 extent are not reflected in today's observations. Alternatively, a balanced mass budget for the L19 extent can be explained by changing model parameters that imply a distinctly different coupling between the glacier's local surface-air layer and its surrounding boundary-layer. This result underlines the difficulty of deriving paleoclimates for larger glacier extents on the basis of modern measurements of small glaciers.