ALBERT

Beschreibung: Seismic facies analysis can generate a map to describe the spatial distribution characteristics of reservoirs, and therefore plays a critical role in seismic interpretation. To analyse the characteristics of the horizon of interest, it is usually necessary to extract seismic waveforms along the target horizon using a selected time window. The inaccuracy of horizon interpretation often produces some inconsistent phases and leads to inaccurate classification. Therefore, the developed adaptive phase K-means algorithm proposed a sliding time window to extract seismic waveforms. However, setting the maximum offset of the sliding window is difficult in a real data application. A value that is too large may cause the cross-layer problem, whereas a value that is too small reduces the flexibility of the algorithm. To address this disadvantage, this paper proposes a robust K-means (R-K-means) algorithm with a Gaussian-weighted sliding window for seismic waveform classification. The used weights punish those windows distant from the interpretation horizon in the objective function, consequently producing a smaller range of horizon adjustments even when using relatively large maximum offsets and benefitting the generation of stable and reliable seismic facies maps. The application of real seismic data from the F3 block proves the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Beschreibung: As the robustness for the wave equation-based inversion methods, wave equation migration velocity analysis (WEMVA) is stable for overcoming the multipathing problem and has become popular in recent years. As a rapidly developed method, differential semblance optimisation (DSO) is convenient to implement and can automatically detect the moveout existing in common image gathers (CIGs). However, by implementing in the image domain with the target of minimising moveouts and improving coherence of the CIGs, the DSO method often suffers from imaging artefacts caused by uneven illumination and irregular observation geometry, which may produce poor velocity updates with artefact contamination. To deal with this issue, in this paper, by introducing Wiener-like filters, we modify the conventional image matching-based objective function to a new one by introducing the quadratic Wasserstein metric technique. The new misfit function measures the distance of two distributions obtained by the convolutional filters and target functions. With the new misfit function, the adjoint sources and the corresponding gradients are improved. We apply the new method to two numerical examples and one field dataset. The corresponding results indicate that the new method is robust to compensate low frequency components of velocity models.

Beschreibung: Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations throughout the North Atlantic have declined in recent decades largely due to reduced marine survival, yet our understanding of marine distribution patterns and migratory routes remains limited. Here, we assigned archived individual samples (n = 3891) collected over a half century (1968–2018) throughout the North Atlantic to region of origin using range-wide genetic assignment. In the Northwest Atlantic, the distribution of assignments reinforced the importance of the Labrador Sea as an aggregation area, with 73% of all reporting groups detected. Moreover, individuals from six European reporting groups were identified in the Northwest Atlantic, and detections decreased with decreasing latitude spanning an area from Greenland to southern Newfoundland. In the Northeast Atlantic, six North American reporting groups were detected in samples from around the Faroe Islands. Based on the distribution of samples, estimates of trans-Atlantic migration distance averaged 3861 and 2889 km for North American and European salmon respectively. Our analysis highlights the widespread importance of the Labrador Sea and Faroe Islands to the species marine distribution patterns, and the prevalence of long-distance trans-Atlantic migration. Ultimately, the results suggest that environmental conditions experienced by many Atlantic salmon populations span much of the North Atlantic Ocean.

Beschreibung: Heterotrophic protists are essential components of the marine ecosystem, yet they are often excluded from monitoring programmes. With limited resources, monitoring strategies need to be optimised considering both scientific knowledge and available resources. In doing so, it is crucial to understand how sampling frequency affects the value of the data. We analysed 11 years of weekly heterotrophic protist time-series data from Station L4 in the Western English Channel to explore how different sampling intervals impact data quality. In the L4 dataset, comprising 55 protist taxa, the reduction of sampling frequency from weekly to four times a year at specific seasons decreased the number of taxa encountered by 38% for ciliates and 29% for heterotrophic dinoflagellates while the mean annual biomass or its mean variation were not affected. Furthermore, when samples were taken only four times a year, biomass peaks of the ten most important taxa were often missed. The primary motivator for this study was furthering the development of the heterotrophic protist monitoring in temperate and subarctic marine areas, e.g. the Baltic Sea. Based on our findings, we give recommendations on sampling frequency to optimise the value of heterotrophic protist monitoring.

Beschreibung: The Lafaye orbicular body was emplaced in the Villatange tonalite-granodiorite unit of the Guéret magmatic complex (Massif Central, France). It consists of plagioclasic orbicules (4–35 cm diameter) embedded in homogeneous cordierite granodiorite. Orbicule cores consist mostly of residual metasedimentary xenoliths or autolithic plagioclasic cumulates. Rims (0.7–8 cm thickness) are single- or multi-layered; layers, mostly comb-textured, comprise alternating sheets dominated by cordierite (XFe = 0.32–0.37) or plagioclase (mostly An25–30). Additional mineral phases are minor biotite (XFe = 0.52; AlVI = 0.58–0.92 atoms per formula unit) and interstitial quartz. Plagioclase and cordierite morphologies (needle-like, skeletal, branching or fan-shaped) indicate growth under high initial supersaturation. However, the final polyhedral shapes and primary zoning of many individual plagioclase crystals, as well as evidence of partial recrystallization, imply significant textural maturation. Whole-rock major and trace element data (A/CNK = 1.12–1.46) and Sr and Nd isotopic compositions (εNd(355 Ma)  = −8.6 to −7.4; 87Sr/86Sr(355 Ma) = 0.7110–0.7147) suggest that the parental magma of the orbicules resulted from bulk assimilation of aluminous metasediments by a Villatange-type granodioritic magma. Heterogeneous nucleation and growth of plagioclase and cordierite around xenoliths/autoliths are interpreted in terms of (1) adiabatic decompression of magma pulses ascending in dykes leading to superheating and resorption of early solids, and (2) volatile exsolution, inducing undercooling, supersaturation, and rim crystallization. The variability of layers (number, thickness, mineral distribution, and texture) is considered to result from oscillatory crystallization combined with variable plagioclase growth rates linked to changes in the degree of supersaturation as a function of the extent of melt degassing, itself linked to magma transfer dynamics.

Beschreibung: La Réunion Island includes two major volcanic systems. About 0·5 Myr ago, Piton des Neiges volcano declined, while Piton de la Fournaise volcano grew on its flank. Since then the Piton de la Fournaise shield volcano has produced homogeneous lavas with chemical compositions transitional between alkali and tholeiitic basalts. In April 2007, the volcano emitted a very small volume of trachytic pumice during its largest historical eruption. We conducted a comprehensive petrological and geochemical study of the pumice to understand the occurrence of such silicic melt in the feeding system of this highly active basaltic volcano. Isotopes of Sr, Nd, Pb and O, together with trace elements, indicate that the trachyte is genetically related to the La Réunion mantle plume and derives from crystallization of a typical basalt. The trachyte chemistry records a long and complex history of differentiation and outgassing. The extensive depletion of moderately volatile elements (F, Cl, B, Cs, Cu, Li) and less volatile uranium is consistent with exsolution of dense fluids at depths of several kilometres. Lithium isotopes point to closed-system degassing during the very late stages of crystallization. U-series isotopes and radiogenic 208Pb*/206Pb* constrain the age of U loss to between 0·4 and 2·1 Ma. This age is as old as or older than the Piton de la Fournaise shield edifice. The 2007 trachyte could thus be a liquid remnant of an extinct volcano, such as Piton des Neiges or Les Alizés (Piton de la Fournaise proto-volcano). It could also result from partial melting of an old syenite intrusion or remobilization of interstitial melts not fully solidified. Thermal modelling indicates that the sustained heat flux from hot basaltic magmas rising from the mantle can maintain temperatures above 800 °C in the central feeding system, and prevent total solidification of magmas trapped in this hot core.

Beschreibung: Fisheries management is usually supported by technical and financial measurements (i.e. logbooks and market data), which are helpful for ecological or economic assessments. Yet this information is not able to address social heterogeneity and fisher motivations, which are key to understanding fisher behaviour. This case study of the demersal segment in the Netherlands shows that combining quantitative analysis of logbooks with qualitative data collected by engaging with fishers can capture both fishing activity and its motivations, generating a more social understanding of fisher behaviour. A métier analysis of logbook data describes five dominant fishing practices among the selected segment. Twenty-five in-depth interviews with fishers along with focus groups including other experts identify three social factors that influence fisher behaviour in the Dutch demersal fleet: business structure, working rhythm, and polyvalence. The results show that motivations for fisher behaviour are more complex than complying with regulations or seeking profit: social factors also influence fishing activity. Furthermore, these social factors have real implications for the impacts of management measures on both the fishing communities and the environment, especially in times of change. These results are useful for management strategy development or evaluation because they are feasibly observable through existing data collection protocols.

Beschreibung: Harbour seals are surveyed aerially when they haul-out to moult in August. The proportion of the population hauled out throughout the year is related to temporal, environmental, and meteorological variables. Thus, monitoring is conducted under predefined ranges of conditions. Effects of variation within these ranges are rarely reviewed. We used linear models to assess effects of time, date and weather on the difference between counts predicted by a population growth model and observed counts, based on a 30-year time-series. Our top-ranked model explained 34.4% of the variance. Survey date and its interaction with survey year were the most important variables, with higher counts earlier in August, particularly early in the time series, where surveys may not have been timed optimally to capture the peak in the moult. Cloud cover, wind speed, temperature, and interactions between these were of lesser importance; there were fewer seals on land during cloudy, windy days and on clear, warm days. These effects of weather are likely related to temperature regulation. Power analyses suggested that correction for survey conditions would allow detection of a one percentage point annual change in population growth rate with 80% power 4 years sooner than without taking survey conditions into account.

Beschreibung: Sargassum forests play an important role in coastal waters as habitats for marine organisms, including commercial species. However, human activities have negatively affected their distribution causing a worldwide decline of Sargassum forests. Mapping and monitoring the distribution and biomass of these habitats using acoustic remote sensing techniques is key for their conservation. Nonetheless, most researches based on acoustic remote sensing methods focus on estimations of macrophyte area and its canopy height, and less researches reporting 3D visualization of these habitats. This study demonstrates the use of high-resolution multibeam echosounder (MBES) bathymetric data to visualize the 3D structure of Sargassum forests. Comparing acoustic data and underwater camera photos collected in field surveys, we identified Sargassum individuals as vertical clusters of contiguous sounding points with a base close to the sea bottom in the sounding data of the MBES. Using this criterion, we could distinguish Sargassum echoes, visualize the 3D structure of Sargassum forests and estimate the number of Sargassum individuals in the survey area. Using the relation between thallus length and dry weight of sampled Sargassum plants, standing stock and biomass could be estimated assuming the thallus length was the height of Sargassum plants identified with the MBES.

Beschreibung: This paper reviews application of the Daily Egg Production Method (DEPM) to sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southern Australia between 1995 and 2019. Coefficients of variation (CVs) of estimates of spawning biomass (SB) were reduced from 23–59% to 8–12% by: (i) estimating mean daily egg production (P0), spawning fraction (S), and sex ratio (R) from all historical data rather than annually; and (ii) combining batch fecundity (F) and female weight (W) into a single parameter, relative fecundity (F′ = F^/W). Total daily egg production was estimated most precisely from annual estimates of spawning area (A) and estimates of P0 obtained from historical data. Both S and R were estimated most precisely from historical data. Estimating W and F from historical data did not increase precision. F′ had lower CVs than both W and F, and was stable across years and a wide range of W. Findings demonstrate that A can be converted into a precise estimates of SB using estimates of P0, S, R, and F′ obtained from historical data. However, the possibility that DEPM parameters may change in the future cannot be discounted. Future monitoring should include annual estimation of P0 and periodic (e.g. 3–5 years) re-estimation of adult parameters.

Beschreibung: In his 1953 paper, Harald Sverdrup argued that the development of a spring bloom in the ocean depends on the juxtaposition of two depth horizons: the mixed-layer depth and the critical depth. Mixed-layer depth shallower than the critical depth favours phytoplankton growth in the layer and vice versa. However, mathematically, Sverdrup left the problem unsolved in the form of a transcendental equation. In spite of the high number of citations that this paper has garnered, the solution to this equation has not been found, until now. In this work, we present an analytical solution for the critical depth, as originally defined by Sverdrup. The paper opens with the definition of the critical depth and the description of the Lambert W function. The analytical solution for critical depth follows. Sverdrup’s original model is extended to include the effect of light attenuation by phytoplankton and the analytical solution for steady-state biomass in the mixed layer is derived. The expression for mixed-layer production at steady state is also presented. Two novel variants of the critical depth are defined: the optically uncoupled critical depth and the optically coupled critical depth. It is demonstrated that at steady state the optically coupled critical depth equals the mixed-layer depth and that the irradiance at the base of the mixed layer equals the irradiance at the optically uncoupled critical depth. Competitive exclusion is demonstrated to hold and the optically uncoupled critical depth is linked to the critical light intensity in multi-species competition. Finally, a conservation principle for the critical depth is found.

Beschreibung: Fishery bycatch poses a serious threat to seabird populations globally. Traditional haul-only post-capture observations are inadequate and inefficient to document seabird bycatch due to the substantial bycatch loss known to occur. Pre-capture observations offer an alternative by documenting seabird interactions leading up to captures. Based on the long-term large-scale dedicated field observations, this study revealed significant risk factors for the pre-capture stages of the seabird bycatch process in pelagic longline fisheries using Bayesian methods. Rough sea conditions were found to correlate with more seabirds following fishing vessels. Species identity, density effect, inter-species effect, and sea condition were found to significantly affect how frequently seabirds aggregated around a fishing vessel engage in bait-taking interactions. Intra-species competition was found to be the dominant type of density effect. Moreover, a web of inter-species interactions was identified to facilitate the bait-taking of superior competitors at the expense of inferior ones. The findings of this study are relevant to fishery managers in updating current data collection protocols to alleviate data issues caused by bycatch loss, to conservation biologists in quantifying bycatch risks for susceptible seabird populations, and in aiding the design and evaluation of bycatch mitigation measures.

Beschreibung: Multiyear climate predictions provide climate outlooks from years to a decade in advance. As multiyear temperature predictions become more mainstream and skillful, guidance is needed to assist practitioners who wish to explore this maturing field. This paper demonstrates the process and considerations of incorporating multiyear temperature predictions into water resources planning. Multiyear temperature predictions from the Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble are presented as discrete and probabilistic products and are used to force two common hydrologic modeling approaches: conceptual and empirical. The approaches are demonstrated to simulate streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin watershed in Colorado, where diagnostics show that increasing temperatures are associated with decreasing streamflows. Using temperature information for lead years 2–6, two analyses are performed: (i) a retrospective hindcast for the climatological period (1981–2010) and (ii) a blind forecast for 2011–15. For the retrospective hindcast, including temperature information improved the percent error as compared with climatology. For the blind forecast, the multiyear temperature prediction for warming was skillful, but the corresponding multiyear average streamflow predictions from both approaches were counterintuitive: with the predicted warming, the multiyear average streamflow was predicted to be lower than the climatological mean; however, the observed multiyear average streamflow was higher than the climatological mean. This was due to above-average precipitation during the prediction time frame, particularly for one of the years. With that year removed, the multiyear streamflow average became lower than the climatological mean. Temperature provides a marginal source of streamflow predictability, but there will be substantial uncertainty until prediction skill for year-to-year climate variability, especially for precipitation, increases.

Beschreibung: Fishing and translocation of marine species for use in aquaculture is widespread. Corkwing, goldsinny, and ballan wrasse (Symphodus melops, Ctenolabrus rupestris, and Labrus bergylta) are fished on the Swedish west coast for use as cleaner-fish in Norwegian salmon farms. Here, we aim to provide knowledge and recommendations to support ecosystem-based management for wrasse fisheries in Sweden. We compared fished and non-fished areas to test if current fishery levels have led to stock depletion. To gain insight on the role of wrasse in the algal belt trophic chain, we analysed the gut contents of goldsinny and corkwing using metabarcoding. Finally, we analysed the trophic interactions of wrasse and potential prey in a mesocosm study. We could not detect any signs of stock depletion or altered size structure in fished areas compared to the protected control area. Gut analyses confirmed both goldsinny and corkwing as non-specialized, omnivorous opportunists and revealed, with 189 prey taxa detected, a broader spectrum of prey than previously known. Common prey items included mesoherbivores such as small gastropods and crustaceans, but also insects and algae. We conclude that there are no visible signs of stock depletion at the current removal level of wrasses by the fishery. However, this emerging fishery should be closely monitored for potential cascading effects on the algal belt ecosystem, and our study could provide a baseline for future monitoring.

Beschreibung: Target strength model inputs including morphometry, material properties, lipid composition, and in situ orientations were measured for sub-Arctic krill (Euphausia pacifica, Thysanoessa spinifera, T. inermis, and T. raschii) in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS, 2016) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA, 2017). Inter-species and -regional animal lengths were significantly different (F1,680 = 114.10, p 

Beschreibung: Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is one of the most commercially important fish species in the North Atlantic. Environmental factors, such as water temperatures, influence growth of individuals over time, thus forming population-specific growth patterns across climatic regions. Here we develop an integrative approach to investigate the role of temperature in shaping geographic differences of cod growth in the Celtic Sea, North Sea, Iceland, and Barents Sea. We combine a physiology-based growth model and 50-years observational temperature data of 0.5 × 0.5° spatial resolution to simulate continuous growth of cod. The model generated weight-at-age data for the period 1959–2007 which we compared to observational data from fishery-independent scientific surveys. In the Celtic and the northern North Sea, simulated growth matches well observational data. We also show that relatively warm temperatures in the Celtic Sea facilitate maximum growth rates; future warming is likely to have a negative impact on growth of these cod stocks. Growth simulations in Icelandic waters and the Barents Sea are less consistent with local observational data. More complex growth patterns in these regions are probably shaped by ontogenetic shifts in temperature regimes, feeding conditions and physiological adaptations. These findings should stimulate further research on critical processes to be considered in population-specific projections of growth of cod and productivity.

Beschreibung: In designing and performing surveys of animal abundance, monitoring programs often struggle to determine the sampling intensity and design required to achieve their objectives, and this problem greatly increases in complexity for multispecies surveys with inherent trade-offs among species. To address these issues, we conducted a multispecies stratified random survey design optimization using a spatiotemporal operating model and a genetic algorithm that optimizes both the stratification (defined by depth and longitude) and the minimum optimal allocation of samples across strata subject to prespecified precision limits. Surveys were then simulated under those optimized designs and performance was evaluated by calculating the precision and accuracy of a resulting design-based abundance index. We applied this framework to a multispecies fishery-independent bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska, USA. Incorporating only spatial variation in the optimization failed to produce population estimates within the prespecified precision constraints, whereas including additional spatiotemporal variation ensured that estimates were both unbiased and within prespecified precision constraints. In general, results were not sensitive to the number of strata in the optimized solutions. This optimization approach provides an objective quantitative framework for designing new, or improving existing, survey designs for many different ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Changes in animal movement and behaviour at fine scales (tens of metres) in immediate proximity to tidal stream turbine structures are largely unknown and have implications for risks of animal collision with turbine blades. This study used upward-facing multibeam echosounder data to detect and track animal movement comprising fish, diving seabirds, and marine mammals. Measurements over spring-neap tidal cycles at a turbine structure (no blades present) are compared to a neighbouring reference area with no structure and comparable conditions, with measurements consecutive in time to maximize comparability. The majority of tracked animals (93.4% around turbine structure and 99.1% without turbine structure) were observed swimming against the flow, with 87.5% and 97.8%, respectively, making ground and showing capability of manoeuvring in tidal stream flow speeds. Track tortuosity increased around the turbine structure compared to the reference site, particularly in the wake and at low flow speeds, indicating animal station-holding or milling behaviour. These data also evidence the benefits of multibeam echosounders to measure animal movement through larger measurement volumes rather than relying on single-beam echosounders to measure animal presence alone, including to avoid large biases overestimating the size of schools swimming against the flow measured by time-in-beam.

Beschreibung: The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming regions on earth, and it is likely that the abundance and distribution of marine predators will change as a result.Procellariiform seabirds are highly mobile predators, which target specific habitat characteristics associated with underlying distributions of prey and areas of increased prey availability. We use ship surveys and hurdle models, to estimate the summer distribution and relative density of 11 seabird species within the northern Antarctic Peninsula marine ecosystem. Models differed among species; however, sea surface temperature and depth were frequently associated with seabird occurrence and had the greatest explanatory power across many species. Null models based on observation data were better at predicting seabird density than models that included environmental covariates. This suggests that the main driver of distribution patterns is the broad-scale habitat features, and fine-scale aggregations within these ranges are harder to predict. Our seabird distribution models reflect known habitat associations, species hotspots, and community organization relative to oceanic and coastal marine processes. Application of species distribution models will benefit the assessments of critical habitat and potential responses to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance, which will provide insight into how species may change in polar ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Many data-limited fish stocks worldwide require management advice. Simple empirical management procedures have been used to manage data-limited fisheries but do not necessarily ensure compliance with maximum sustainable yield objectives and precautionary principles. Genetic algorithms are efficient optimization procedures for which the objectives are formalized as a fitness function. This optimization can be included when testing management procedures in a management strategy evaluation. This study explored the application of a genetic algorithm to an empirical catch rule and found that this approach could substantially improve the performance of the catch rule. The optimized parameterization and the magnitude of the improvement were dependent on the specific stock, stock status, and definition of the fitness function. The genetic algorithm proved to be an efficient and automated method for tuning the catch rule and removed the need for manual intervention during the optimization process. Therefore, we conclude that the approach could also be applied to other management procedures, case-specific tuning, and even data-rich stocks. Finally, we recommend the phasing out of the current generic ICES “2 over 3” advice rule in favour of case-specific catch rules of the form tested here, although we caution that neither works well for fast-growing stocks.

Beschreibung: Ocean grabbing occurs when traditional users, such as small-scale fishers, are pushed aside by new development activities. This grabbing must be prevented to avoid sea uses that maintain or increase social inequity. In this paper, we show that in tropical Atlantic countries, such as Brazil and Senegal, examples of ocean grabbing already occur. In this context, we analyse if Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) may be an opportunity to limit ocean grabbing or, to the contrary, poses a risk to increase it. MSP calls for an ecosystem approach that requires integrated coastal and marine management and involves stakeholders in developing a shared vision of the future, where society and environment are preserved. However, recent studies have shown that MSP is a process to be used cautiously to ensure equitable decisions. Meanwhile, the concept is spreading worldwide including in tropical Atlantic countries. We highlight that context matters and the specificities of the tropical Atlantic must be taken into account when deploying MSP processes. In the tropical Atlantic context, there is increased imbalances of stakeholder power, traps from decision support tools, and a need for adaptive management. These specific features must be addressed when deploying MSP in a way to avoid ocean grabbing.

Beschreibung: The influence of oceanographic variables on assemblages of meso- and bathypelagic fish was investigated along a Northeastern Atlantic Ocean transect (Cape Verde to the Bay of Biscay) during May 2019. Fish were collected using a mrozooplankton trawl during daylight hours at ten stations. Along the transect, 17 hydrographic stations were also performed with a CTD (Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth). A total of 130 fish taxa were identified. The dominant family was Gonostomatidae, with four species (Cyclothone braueri, Cyclothone microdon, Cyclothone pseudopallida, and Cyclothone pallida) being responsible of more than 78% of the total density. The most frequent species that appeared to be ubiquitous were C. braueri and C. pseudopallida, while Myctophidae was the most diverse family. Multivariate analyses revealed two clusters related with the latitudinal gradient. The fish community in the southern stations (25–37°N) was more diverse than in the northern stations (42–48°N). Temperature from 300 to 700 m depth explained 65% of variation in terms of density and 58% in terms of biomass, both statistically significant. The investigated variation in the deep-pelagic ecosystems on a large spatial scale gives essential information to ecosystem management approhes and marine spatial planning.

Beschreibung: In the European Union (EU), the ecosystem approach to fisheries is implemented through several directives and polices, which are overarched by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The MSFD requires the assessment of the environmental status of exploited fish and shellfish stocks, among others, to advise the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) on sustainable catch options. The stock assessments for the CFP and the MSFD are supposed to be congruent, yet they differ in several substantial subjects. While the annual CFP assessment is based on two indicators, fishing mortality (F) and spawning stock biomass (SSB), in its Descriptor 3 (D3) the MSFD requires the assessment of three criteria (F, SSB, and age or size structure) within a six year period. Assessing exploited fish and shellfish stocks under the MSFD by using existing CFP assessments has therefore been a half-completed task, which had to be fulfilled by the member states of the EU. This paper suggests six easy steps, referred to as “quick wins” (QW), which are based on existing information from CFP stock assessments. The implementation of these six QW would allow for assessments of exploited fish and shellfish stocks that are compliant to D3. These QW are to (i) assess length/age structure within a stock, (ii) analyse and assess selectivity by fisheries, (iii) use all available information to assess a stock, (iv) use response indicators to assess environmental targets, (v) provide integrated stock-specific advice, and (vi) provide assessments with a mid-term perspective over a-period of six years. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) combines the infrastructure and expertise to produce stock-specific assessment products tailored to the requirements of MSFD D3. Thereby, ICES could provide a valuable service to EU member states in the north-east Atlantic region by providing scientifically validated, quality-assured, and MSFD-compliant single-stock assessment products. This would be a big advancement towards implementing the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within Europe.

Beschreibung: Managers, stakeholders, and scientists recognize the need for collaborative, transparent, integrated approaches to complex resource management issues, and frameworks to address these complex issues are developing. Through the course of 2019, the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council developed a conceptual model of ecosystem linkages and risks for summer flounder, a species of recreational and commercial fisheries importance. The proximal aim of the model was to develop a list of integrated management questions that could be refined and addressed through a future quantitative management strategy evaluation. As such, this conceptual model served as a scoping tool. However, the true value of the conceptual model lays elsewhere: familiarizing resource managers historically focused on single-species management with the potential utility of an ecosystem approach to management. This paper details the goals and development of the conceptual model and situates this process in the broader context of best practices for collaborative open science and scientific reproducibility. Further, it highlights a successful path by which the shift towards ecosystem-based management can be actuated.

Beschreibung: Understanding the competitive interactions of ecological similar species is essential to determine their role and niche in the ecosystem. Using both conventional dietary methods and stable isotope analysis, we examined the feeding ecology, trophic position and possible niche partitioning of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), Icelandic summer spawning (ISS) herring (Clupea harengus), and Norwegian spring spawning (NSS) herring from Icelandic waters during the spring and summer 2012 and 2014. The stomach analysis showed differences in prey preferences among the species during summer, where mackerel diets were almost exclusively calanoid copepods, while herring ate larger zooplankton, i.e. euphausiids and amphipods. Analysis of isotopic diet contribution of mackerel and herring using Bayesian mixing models, representing mainly the spring consumption, revealed that euphausiids were the main dietary contributor of both mackerel and herring. Fish prey were also an important dietary source for ISS herring, and amphipods were important to the diet of NSS herring. In addition, mackerel encompassed a broad isotopic niche, whereas the two herring stocks had narrower and separated niches from each other. The results from this analysis reveal new and holistic information into the diet of these species, which have various ecological implications.

Beschreibung: Theoretical size at the onset of maturity (TSOM) for female Norway lobster was estimated by a new methodology based on the probability distributions of mature individuals built on physiological maturity measures. Onset of maturity using TSOM varied from 18.4- to 33.7-mm carapace length for the Irish functional management units (FUs). These estimates showed a significant negative linear relationship (R2 = 0.60) with population density and a significant positive linear relationship with average size in females (R2 = 0.84). The size class at which 50% of the females are sexually mature (L50) was linked to the new TSOM metric by a significant positive linear relationship (R2 = 0.40). This set of linear relationships ultimately allowed TSOM and L50 to be estimated without a requirement for maturity stages to be distinguished. As well as contributing to the stock assessment and management of Nephrops (e.g. in data-limited FUs) and its potential for the calibration of more routinely used estimates, TSOM might be applied in new species and meta-analyses where size of maturity data are scarce. This new metric also better-defines the maturity process since, taken together, TSOM, L50, and smallest berried female represent sequential maturity events: (i) onset of maturity, (ii) 50% mature (from gonad staging), and (iii) berried females.

Beschreibung: Although gelatinous zooplankton are an important component of marine ecosystems, gelatinous mesozooplankton that are

Beschreibung: The carapace length (CL) at which American lobster (Homarus americanus) females reach maturity can be used to evaluate egg production, growth patterns, and the overall health of lobster stocks. The female maturity datasets used to represent Gulf of Maine (GOM) lobsters in the 2015 Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission American Lobster Stock Assessment were collected in the 1990s by the Maine Department of Marine Resources at two coastal sites. Many studies have demonstrated an inverse relationship between temperature and the size at maturity in female lobsters, and GOM waters have warmed significantly over this period. To update these GOM maturity datasets, we used ovarian staging to determine the maturity status of over 1200 females from fives sites over 3 years. Broad application of this methodology in tandem with key growth measurements on females 50–120 mm CL allowed us to characterize reproductive development and generate maturity ogives (proportion mature at a given CL). We observed a latitudinal gradient in the size at maturity across this coastal region of the GOM and quantified a decrease in this size over 25 years. These findings have implications for future stock assessment approaches and management measures implemented to sustain this valuable fishery.

Beschreibung: The carbonate chemistry in coastal waters is more variable compared with that of open oceans, both in magnitude and time scale of its fluctuations. However, knowledge of the responses of coastal phytoplankton to dynamic changes in pH/pCO2 has been scarcely documented. Hence, we investigated the physiological performance of a coastal isolate of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (PML B92/11) under fluctuating and stable pCO2 regimes (steady ambient pCO2, 400 μatm; steady elevated pCO2, 1200 μatm; diurnally fluctuating elevated pCO2, 600–1800 μatm). Elevated pCO2 inhibited the calcification rate in both the steady and fluctuating regimes. However, higher specific growth rates and lower ratios of calcification to photosynthesis were detected in the cells grown under diurnally fluctuating elevated pCO2 conditions. The fluctuating pCO2 regime alleviated the negative effects of elevated pCO2 on effective photochemical quantum yield and relative photosynthetic electron transport rate compared with the steady elevated pCO2 treatment. Our results suggest that growth of E. huxleyi could benefit from diel fluctuations of pH/pCO2 under future-projected ocean acidification, but its calcification was reduced by the fluctuation and the increased concentration of CO2, reflecting a necessity to consider the influences of dynamic pH fluctuations on coastal carbon cycles associated with ocean global changes.

Beschreibung: Millions of people’s livelihoods rely on artisanal fisheries. However, in many regions fishers are increasingly facing ciguatera poisoning, a seafood-borne illness. The toxin, produced by benthic dinoflagellates, can spread through marine food webs and to humans by direct consumption. Ciguatera risk can play a major role in fisher’s activities but has never been considered in any marine spatial plans thus far. To fill this gap, we examined if integrating ciguatera in systematic conservation plans could affect these decisions. We developed through map-based interviews, a novel seven-step framework to collect and map local knowledge on ciguatera risk and fisheries activities with two innovations: (i) better mapping of fishing grounds by combining geomorphological habitat and fishing gear information, and (ii) integrating ciguatera risk directly into systematic spatial planning designs and scenarios conceived to maximize benthic habitat conservation while minimizing impacts to fishers. The approach is illustrated for Raivavae Island, in French Polynesia, Pacific Ocean. We found that integrating ciguatera significantly improved prioritization solutions with a 24–38% decrease of costs to fishers compared with scenarios based solely on fishery data. This framework was designed for scientists and managers to optimize the implementation of conservation plans and could be generalized to ciguatera-prone areas.

Beschreibung: Deep-sea marine fishes support important fisheries but estimates of their distributions are often incomplete as the data behind them may reflect fishing practices, access rights, or political boundaries, rather than actual geographic distributions. We use a simple suitable habitat model based on bottom depth, temperature, and salinity to estimate the potential distribution of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides). A large presence-only dataset is examined using multivariate kernel densities to define environmental envelopes, which we link to spatial distribution using a pan-Arctic oceanographic model. Occurrences generally fit the model well, although there were gaps in the predicted circum-Arctic distribution likely due to limited survey activity in many of the ice-covered seas around the Arctic Ocean. Bottom temperature and depth were major factors defining model fit to observations, but other factors, such as ecosystem interactions and larval drift could also influence distribution. Model predictions can be tested by increasing sampling effort in poorly explored regions and by studying the connectivity of putative populations. While abundances of Greenland halibut in the High Arctic are currently low, some areas are predicted to be suitable habitat for this species, suggesting that on-going sea-ice melt may lead to fisheries expansion into new areas.

Beschreibung: On the continental shelf, New Zealand bryozoans dominate ecologically-important three-dimensional benthic habitat providing structural complexity which hosts a wide variety of fauna, including economically valuable species (e.g. oysters and blue cod). The association between these species and bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat commonly results in trawling damage to the benthos; eliminating pressure from destructive fishing practices could support bryozoan regrowth. In 2002, a voluntary fishing restriction was designated over part of one such bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat, but the efficacy of this ban has not been assessed. Statutory marine protected areas have been proposed in the same area; they aim to achieve bryozoan protection and recovery. A comparison of the bryozoan fauna using benthic images from 2003 and 2019 from the Otago shelf, South Island, New Zealand/Te Waipounamu, Aotearoa shows that a 17-year voluntary fishing ban has been ineffective at increasing the cover and richness of bryozoan-dominated biogenic habitat on the Otago shelf. This study provides a baseline for future monitoring and develops useful metrics for recovery, while calling for further research on the biology and ecology of habitat-forming bryozoans.

Beschreibung: Ecosystem-based management is generally viewed as one of the most promising avenues for addressing the various anthropogenic pressures facing the world’s marine ecosystems. These approaches have been developed to varying degrees by individual countries or international organisations, but there remain a large proportion of marine ecosystems, particularly in developing regions, that have not yet been the subject of such research. In these areas, lack of effective regulation and the often high importance of the marine environment in providing food and economic opportunities, together create conditions where marine resources and habitats come under unsustainable levels of pressure. Here, we present a data-limited assessment approach to discern marine ecological patterns, in this case for the exclusive economic zone of Vietnam. By combining data from environmental and biological surveys from the Vietnamese national survey dataset and local oceanographic models, we have identified a series of 12 candidate ecological production units, delineated by their environmental characteristics, and the key commercial species that exist within them. These units are suggested as a possible foundation for a spatial management structure in the Vietnamese exclusive economic zone including considerations such as placement of marine protected areas, or ecological boundaries of key areas of socio-economic importance.

Beschreibung: This paper explores the possibility of using the ensemble modelling paradigm to fully capture assessment uncertainty and improve the robustness of advice provision. We identify and discuss advantages and challenges of ensemble modelling approaches in the context of scientific advice. There are uncertainties associated with every phase in the stock assessment process: data collection, assessment model choice, model assumptions, interpretation of risk, up to the implementation of management advice. Additionally, the dynamics of fish populations are complex, and our incomplete understanding of those dynamics and limited observations of important mechanisms, necessitate that models are simpler than nature. The aim is for the model to capture enough of the dynamics to accurately estimate trends and abundance, and provide the basis for robust advice about sustainable harvests. The status quo approach to assessment modelling has been to identify the “best” model and generate advice from that model, mostly ignoring advice from other model configurations regardless of how closely they performed relative to the chosen model. We discuss and make suggestions about the utility of ensemble models, including revisions to the formal process of providing advice to management bodies, and recommend further research to evaluate potential gains in modelling and advice performance.

Beschreibung: Climate effects on marine fish depend on life stage, particularly when life stages differ in habitat utilization. In the present study, we investigated life stage-dependent responses of lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) to temperature at contrasting geographical scales. We related population density and individual growth to temperature and found different temperature responses between the first and the second years of life. During the first year of life, fish size was the single most important factor influencing sandeel abundances, indicating a positive relationship between growth and survival. In contrast, during the second year of life, autumn bottom temperature was negatively correlated with sandeel abundance, suggesting elevated mortality in warm years. Southerly areas, experiencing higher temperatures in general, were also the areas showing the strongest response to temperature. This study sheds light on how warming impacts population dynamics of one of the most important forage fishes in the North Sea and supports the discussion of underlying mechanisms.

Beschreibung: A cloud web platform for analysis and interpretation of atomic pair distribution function (PDF) data (PDFitc) is described. The platform is able to host applications for PDF analysis to help researchers study the local and nanoscale structure of nanostructured materials. The applications are designed to be powerful and easy to use and can, and will, be extended over time through community adoption and development. The currently available PDF analysis applications, structureMining, spacegroupMining and similarityMapping, are described. In the first and second the user uploads a single PDF and the application returns a list of best-fit candidate structures, and the most likely space group of the underlying structure, respectively. In the third, the user can upload a set of measured or calculated PDFs and the application returns a matrix of Pearson correlations, allowing assessment of the similarity between different data sets. structureMining is presented here as an example to show the easy-to-use workflow on PDFitc. In the future, as well as using the PDFitc applications for data analysis, it is hoped that the community will contribute their own codes and software to the platform.

Beschreibung: Experimental values of atomic positions in the β-Mn crystal permit one to distinguish among them a fragment of the helix containing 15 interpenetrating distorted icosahedra, 90 vertices and 225 tetrahedra. This fragment corresponds to the closed helix of 15 icosahedra in the 4D {3, 3, 5} polytope. The primitive cubic lattice of these icosahedral helices envelopes not only all atoms of β-Mn, but also all tetrahedra belonging to the tiling of the β-Mn structure. The 2D projection of all atomic positions in the β-Mn unit cells shows that they are situated (by neglecting small differences) on three circumferences containing 2D projections of 90 vertices of the {3, 3, 5} polytope on the same plane. Non-crystallographic symmetry of the β-Mn crystal is defined by mapping the closed icosahedral helix of the {3, 3, 5} polytope into 3D Euclidean space E 3. This interpretation must be correlated also with the known previous determination of non-crystallographic symmetry of the β-Mn crystal by mapping into the 3D E 3 space system of icosahedra from the 6D cubic B 6 lattice. The recently proposed determination of non-crystallographic symmetry of the β-Mn crystal actually uses the symmetries of the 8D E 8 lattice, in which both the 4D {3, 3, 5} polytope and cubic 6D B 6 lattice can be inserted.

Beschreibung: In the molecular structure of the title compound, C20H21N3O7, the quinoline ring system is slightly bent, with a dihedral angle between the phenyl and the pyridine rings of 3.47 (7)°. In the crystal, corrugated layers of molecules extending along the ab plane are generated by C—H...O hydrogen bonds. The intermolecular interactions were quantified by Hirshfeld surface analysis and two-dimensional fingerprint plots. The most significant contributions to the crystal packing are from H...H (42.3%), H...O/O...H (34.5%) and H...C/ C...H (17.6%) contacts. Molecular orbital calculations providing electron-density plots of the HOMO and LUMO as well as molecular electrostatic potentials (MEP) were computed, both with the DFT/B3LYP/6–311 G++(d,p) basis set. A molecular docking study between the title molecule and the COVID-19 main protease (PDB ID: 6LU7) was performed, showing that it is a good agent because of its affinity and ability to adhere to the active sites of the protein.

Beschreibung: In the crystal structure of the title compound, [Cu4Cl6O(C13H9N)4]·CH2Cl2, the core molecular structure consists of a Cu4 tetrahedron with a central interstitial O atom. Each edge of the Cu4 tetrahedron is bridged by a chlorido ligand. Each copper(II) cation is coordinated to the central O atom, two chlorido ligands and one N atom of the 4-phenylethynylpyridine ligand. In the crystal, the molecules are linked by intermolecular C—H...Cl interactions. Furthermore, C—H...π and π–π interactions also connect the molecules, forming a three-dimensional network. Hirshfeld surface analysis indicates that the most important contributions for the packing arrangement are from H...H and C...H/H...C interactions.

Beschreibung: At 100 K, the title compound, C13H12N2O2, crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group Pna21 with two very similar molecules in the asymmetric unit. An intramolecular N—H...O hydrogen bond leads to an S(6) graph-set motif in each of the molecules. Intermolecular π–π stacking and C=O...π interactions involving the aldehyde O atoms link molecules into stacks parallel to [100]. A Hirshfeld surface analysis indicates that the most important contributions to the crystal packing stem from H...H (49.4%) and H...O/O...H (21.5%) interactions. Energy framework calculations reveal a significant contribution of dispersion energy. The crystal studied was refined as a two-component inversion twin.

Beschreibung: Co-crystallization from methanol of 3-amino-1H-pyrazole with 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid produces 3-amino-1H-pyrazol-2-ium 3,5-dinitrobenzoate monohydrate, C3H6N3 +·C7H3N2O6 −·H2O, (I), while similar co-crystallization of this pyrazole with an equimolar quantity of fumaric acid produces bis(3-amino-1H-pyrazol-2-ium) fumarate–fumaric acid (1/1), 2C3H6N3 +·C4H2O4 2−·C4H4O4, (II). The reaction of 3-amino-1H-pyrazole with a dilute solution of nitric acid in methanol yields a second, orthorhombic polymorph of 3-amino-1H-pyrazol-2-ium nitrate, C3H6N3 +·NO3 −, (III). In each of (I)–(III), the bond distances in the cation provide evidence for extensive delocalization of the positive charge. In each of (I) and (II), an extensive series of O—H...O and N—H...O hydrogen bonds links the components into complex sheets, while in the structure of (III), the ions are linked by multiple N—H...O hydrogen bonds into a three-dimensional arrangement. Comparisons are made with the structures of some related compounds.

Beschreibung: Previous studies have concluded that the wind-input vorticity in ocean gyres is balanced by bottom pressure torques (BPT), when integrated over latitude bands. However, the BPT must vanish when integrated over any area enclosed by an isobath. This constraint raises ambiguities regarding the regions over which BPT should close the vorticity budget, and implies that BPT generated to balance a local wind stress curl necessitates the generation of a compensating, non-local BPT and thus non-local circulation. This study aims to clarify the role of BPT in wind-driven gyres using an idealized isopycnal model. Experiments performed with a single-signed wind stress curl in an enclosed, sloped basin reveal that BPT balances the winds only when integrated over latitude bands. Integrating over other, dynamically-motivated definitions of the gyre, such as barotropic streamlines, yields a balance between wind stress curl and bottom frictional torques. This implies that bottom friction plays a non-negligible role in structuring the gyre circulation. Non-local bottom pressure torques manifest in the form of along-slope pressure gradients associated with a weak basin-scale circulation, and are associated with a transition to a balance between wind stress and bottom friction around the coasts. Finally, a suite of perturbation experiments is used to investigate the dynamics of BPT. To predict the BPT, the authors extend previous theory that describes propagation of surface pressure signals from the gyre interior toward the coast along planetary potential vorticity contours. This theory is shown to agree closely with the diagnosed contributions to the vorticity budget across the suite of model experiments.

Beschreibung: Sufficient and accurate tide data are essential for analyzing physical processes in the ocean. A method is developed to spatially fit the tidal amplitude and phase lag data along satellite altimeter tracks near Hawaii and construct reliable cotidal charts by using the Chebyshev polynomials. The method is completely dependent on satellite altimeter data. By using the cross-validation method, the optimal orders of Chebyshev polynomials are determined and the polynomial coefficients are calculated by the least squares method. The tidal amplitudes and phase lags obtained by the method are compared with those from the Finite Element Solutions 2014 (FES2014), National Astronomical Observatory 99b (NAO.99b) and TPXO9 models. Results indicate that the method yields accurate results as its fitting results are consistent with the harmonic constants of the three models. The feasibility of this method is also validated by the harmonic constants from tidal gauges near Hawaii.

Beschreibung: Synchrotron serial crystallography (SSX) is an emerging data-collection method for micro-crystallography on synchrotron macromolecular (MX) crystallography beamlines. At SPring-8, the feasibility of the fixed-target approach was examined by collecting data using a 2D raster scan combined with goniometer rotation. Results at cryogenic temperatures demonstrated that rotation is effective for efficient data collection in SSX and the method was named serial synchrotron rotation crystallography (SS-ROX). To use this method for room-temperature (RT) data collection, a humid air and glue-coating (HAG) method was developed in which data were collected from polyvinyl alcohol-coated microcrystals fixed on a loop under humidity-controlled air. The performance and the RT data-collection strategy for micro-crystallography were evaluated using microcrystals of lysozyme. Although a change in unit-cell dimensions of up to 1% was observed during data collection, the impact on data quality was marginal. A comparison of data obtained at various absorbed doses revealed that absorbed doses of up to 210 kGy were tolerable in both global and local damage. Although this limits the number of photons deposited on each crystal, increasing the number of merged images improved the resolution. On the basis of these results, an equation was proposed that relates the achievable resolution to the total photon flux used to obtain a data set.

Beschreibung: The temporal-spatial variations of the static stability of dry air and the relative importance of their influencing quantities are explored. Derivation shows that while it links to the vertical difference of temperature, static stability also relates to the temperature itself. The static stability is expressed as a nonlinear function of temperature and the vertical difference of temperature. The relative importance of the two influencing quantities is assessed with the linear regression. Tests show that the linear fitting method is robust. The results of the dominance rely on the data examined, which include an interannual variation, a seasonal variation, and a spatial variation that consists of the grid points over the globe. It is revealed that in lower troposphere, while the temporal variations of static stability are dominated by the vertical difference of temperature, the temperature itself may also have considerable influence, especially over the high latitudes of the two hemispheres. In stratosphere, temperature tends to have more contributions. Over Antarctic, temperature dominates the seasonal and interannual variations of the static stability. The spatial variation of the static stability of July is influenced by both temperature and its vertical difference before 1980, but after that it is dominated by temperature.

Beschreibung: In recent winters, there have been repeated observations of extreme warm and cold spells in the mid-latitude countries. This has evoked questions regarding how winter temperature extremes are induced. In this study, we demonstrate that abnormally warm winter weather in East Asia can drive the onset of extremely cold weather in North America approximately one week forward. These seesawing extremes across the basin are mediated by the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the recurrent atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific. Budget analysis of the quasi-geostrophic geopotential tendency equation shows that intense thermal advection over East Asia is able to trigger the growth of the NPO. Vorticity fluxes associated with the upper-level stationary trough then strengthen and maintain the NPO against thermal damping following the onset of the NPO. Differential diabatic heating accompanied by changes in circulation also positively contribute to the growth and maintenance of the NPO. These results imply that recurrent cold extremes, seemingly contrary to global warming, may be an inherent feature resulting from strengthening warm extremes.

Beschreibung: This study revisits the long-term variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1958-2017 through examining diurnal cycles. We group monsoon days into four dynamic quadrants, with emphasis on the strong daily southerlies coupled with a large (Q1) or small (Q4) diurnal amplitude over Southeast China. The occurrence day of Q1 increases in June-July with the seasonal progress of EASM. It is most pronounced in 1960s-1970s and declines to the lowest in 1980s-1990s, while the Q4 occurrence increases notably from 1970s to 1990s; both groups return to normal in recent years. The interdecadal decrease (increase) of Q1 (Q4) occurrence corresponds well to the known weakening of EASM in the 20th century, and it also coincides with the rainfall anomalies over China shifting from “North flooding and South drought” to “North drought and South flooding” modes. The rainfall under Q1 (Q4) can account for ∼60% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall in northern (southern) China. The contrasting effects of Q1 and Q4 on rainfall are due to their remarkably different regulation on water vapor transports and convergence. The interannual/interdecadal variations of Q1 (Q4) occurrence determine the anomalous water vapor transports to northern (southern) China, in association with the various expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high. In particular, Q1 condition can greatly intensify nighttime moisture convergence, which is responsible for the long-term variations of rainfall in northern China. The results highlight that the diurnal cycles in monsoon flow act as a key regional process working with large-scale circulations to regulate the spatial distributions and long-term variabilities of EASM rainfall.

Beschreibung: A lightning risk assessment for application to human safety was created and applied in 10 West Texas locations from 2 May 2016 to 30 September 2016. The method combined spatial lightning mapping data, probabilistic risk calculation adapted from the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 62305-2, and weighted average interpolation to produce risk magnitudes that were compared to tolerability thresholds to issue lightning warnings. These warnings were compared to warnings created for the same dataset using a more standard lightning safety approach based on National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) total lightning within 5 nautical miles of each location. Four variations of the calculation as well as different units of risk were tested to find the optimal configuration to calculate risk to an isolated human outdoors.The best performing risk configuration using risk 10min−1 or larger produced the most comparable results to the standard method, such as number of failures, average warning duration, and total time under warnings. This risk configuration produced fewer failures than the standard method, but longer total time under warnings and higher false alarm ratios. Median lead times associated with the risk configuration were longer than the standard method for all units considered, while median down times were shorter for risk 10min−1 and risk 15min−1. Overall, the risk method provides a baseline framework to quantify the changing lightning hazard on the storm-scale, and could be a useful tool to aid in lightning decision support scenarios.

Beschreibung: Baroclinic waves drive both regional variations in weather and large-scale variability in the extratropical general circulation. They generally do not exist in isolation, but rather often form into coherent wave packets that propagate to the east via a mechanism called downstream development. Downstream development has been widely documented and explored. Here we document a novel but also key aspect of baroclinic waves: the downstream suppression of baroclinic activity that occurs in the wake of eastward propagating disturbances. Downstream suppression is apparent not only in the Southern Hemisphere storm track as shown in previous work, but also in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks. It plays an essential role in driving subseasonal periodicity in extratropical eddy activity in both hemispheres, and gives rise to the observed quiescence of the North Atlantic storm track 1–2 weeks following pronounced eddy activity in the North Pacific sector. It is argued that downstream suppression results from the anomalously low baroclinicity that arises as eastward propagating wave packets convert potential to kinetic energy. In contrast to baroclinic wave packets, which propagate to the east at roughly the group velocity in the upper troposphere, the suppression of baroclinic activity propagates eastward at a slower rate that is comparable to that of the lower to midtropospheric flow. The results have implications for understanding subseasonal variability in the extratropical troposphere of both hemispheres.