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  • 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous  (7)
  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis  (3)
  • Springer Science+Business Media B.V.  (5)
  • Giunti Progetti Educativi  (4)
  • American Chemical Society
Collection
Years
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquake analysis for prediction purposes is a delicate and still open problem largely debated among scientists. In this work, we want to show that a successful time-predictable model is possible if based on large instrumental data from dense monitoring networks. To this aim, we propose a new simple data-driven and quantitative methodology which takes into account the accumulated geodetic strain and the seismically-released strain to calculate a balance of energies. The proposed index quantifies the state of energy of the selected area and allows us to evaluate better the ingoing potential seismic risk, giving a new tool to read recurrence of small-scale and shallow earthquakes. In spite of its intrinsic simple formulation, the application of the methodology has been successfully simulated in the Eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy) by tuning it in the period 2007–2011 and testing it in the period 2012–2013, allowing us to predict, within days, the earthquakes with highest magnitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-8
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Time-predictable model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This review addresses long-term (tens of years) seismic ground-motion forecasting (seismic hazard assessment) in the presence of alternative computational models (the so-called epistemic uncertainty affecting hazard estimates). We review the different approaches that have been proposed to manage epistemic uncertainty in the context of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Ex-ante procedures (based on the combination of expert judgments about inherent characteristics of the PSHA model) and expost approaches (based on empirical comparison of model outcomes and observations) should not be considered as mutually exclusive alternatives but can be combined in a coherent Bayesian view. Therefore, we propose a procedure that allows a better exploitation of available PSHA models to obtain comprehensive estimates, which account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. We also discuss the respective roles of empirical ex-post scoring and testing of alternative models concurring in the development of comprehensive hazard maps. In order to show how the proposed procedure may work, we also present a tentative application to the Italian area. In particular, four PSHA models are evaluated ex-post against macroseismic effects actually observed in a large set of Italian municipalities during the time span 1957–2006. This analysis shows that, when the whole Italian area is considered, all the models provide estimates that do not agree with the observations. However, two of them provide results that are compatible with observations, when a subregion of Italy (Apulia Region) is considered. By focusing on this area, we computed a comprehensive hazard curve for a single locality in order to show the feasibility of the proposed procedure.
    Description: Published
    Description: 269–293
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; PSHA ; Testing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahe ́ Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments
    Description: Published
    Description: 1507–1525
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami; Numerical modeling; Indian Ocean; Tsunami scenarios ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time–space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggre- gation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.
    Description: FP6 European project NaRaS; FP7 European project MATRIX
    Description: Published
    Description: 551-573
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: multi-risk assessment ; hazard interaction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Abstract Tsunami activity in the Adriatic Sea from the sixteenth century until the present has been analysed with the ultimate goal to improve the European tsunami catalogue and provide data for a new geo-database of tsunami events in the European-Mediterranean region. The study encompasses twenty-seven events, nine on the western and eighteen on the eastern coast of the Adriatic, with special attention being devoted to contemporary sources and to local journals and newspapers. For all the analysed events, the path of information from coeval sources, through the nineteenth century and up to modern tsunami catalogues, has been constructed. Tsunamis on the western coast have already been studied, but to obtain a coherent picture of tsunamigenic activity in the Adriatic Sea, they have been included in this work. Furthermore, the study was extended to see whether they had propagated to the opposite coast. Most of the events on the eastern coast have now been systematically analysed for the first time. The search of bibliographical sources revealed three new reports on tsunamis on the eastern coast that had not been previously recorded in international publications. The study established that, out of the eighteen eastern Adriatic events, twelve can be considered false, while six were true tsunamis. In the last 600 years, fifteen true tsunami events occurred in the Adriatic. One was very strong, six were strong or rather strong, and eight were light tsunamis. As a final result of this analysis, carried out according to standardised criteria, fifteen Adriatic tsunami events will be inserted in the TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region) database for the European-Mediterranean region.
    Description: The research was funded by the EU through the TRANSFER project and by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia (grant 119-1193086-3085).
    Description: Published
    Description: 281–316
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: historical tsunamis ; catalogue ; Adriatic Sea ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Published
    Description: 5.9. Formazione e informazione
    Description: open
    Keywords: informazione ; educazione ; protezione civile ; terremoti ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Published
    Description: 5.9. Formazione e informazione
    Description: open
    Keywords: informazione ; educazione ; protezione civile ; terremoti ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Published
    Description: 5.9. Formazione e informazione
    Description: open
    Keywords: informazione ; educazione ; protezione civile ; terremoti ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Published
    Description: 5.9. Formazione e informazione
    Description: open
    Keywords: informazione ; educazione ; protezione civile ; terremoti ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Red Pompeian paintings, very famous for their deep intensity, are currently suffering from darkening. The origins of this darkening degradation are not clearly identified yet and remain a major issue for curators. In the specific case of cinnabar (HgS)-based red pigment, a photoinduced conversion into black metacinnabar is usually suspected. This work is focused on the blackening of red cinnabar paintings coated on a sparry calcite mortar. Different samples exhibiting different levels of degradation were selected upon visual observations and analyzed by synchrotron-based microanalytical techniques. Atomic and molecular compositions of the different debased regions revealed two possible degradation mechanisms. On one hand, micro X-ray fluorescence elemental maps show peculiar distributions of chlorine and sulfur. On the other hand, X-ray absorption spectroscopy performed at both Cl and S K-edges confirms the presence of characteristic degradation products: (i) Hg- Cl compounds (e.g., corderoite, calomel, and terlinguaite), which may result from the reaction with exogenous NaCl, in gray areas; (ii) gypsum, produced by the calcite sulfation, in black coatings. Metacinnabar is never detected. Finally, a cross section was analyzed to map the in-depth alteration gradient. Reduced and oxidized sulfur distributions reveal that the sulfated black coating consists of a 5-ím-thick layer covering intact cinnabar.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7484-7492
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Microspectroscopy Analysis ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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