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  • 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • INGV  (8)
  • Wiley-Blackwell  (8)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-10-27
    Description: Primary and secondary surface deformation related to the 2001 Bhuj-Kachchh earthquake suggests that thrusting movement took place along an E-W fault near the western extension of the South Wagad Fault, a synthetic fault of the Kachchh Mainland Fault (KMF). Despite early reconnaissance reports that concluded there was no primary surface faulting, we describe an 830 m long, 15-35 cm high, east-west-trending thrust fault scarp near where the seismogenic fault plane would project to the surface, near Bharodiya village (between 23°34.912'N, 70°23.942'E and 23°34.304'N, 70°24.884'E). Along most of the scarp Jurassic bedrock is thrust over Quaternary deposits, but the fault scarp also displaces Holocene alluvium and an earth dam, with dips of 13° to 36° south. Secondary co-seismic features, mainly liquefaction and lateral spreading, dominate the area south of the thrust. Transverse right-lateral movement along the «Manfara Fault» and a parallel fault near Bharodiya suggests segmentation of the E-W master faults. Primary (thrust) surface rupture had a length of 0.8 km, maximum displacement of about 35 cm, and average displacement of about 15 cm. Secondary (strike-slip) faulting was more extensive, with a total end-to-end length of 15 km, maximum displacement of 35 cm, and average displacement of about 20 cm.
    Description: Published
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: surface rupture ; Kachchh earthquake ; thrust fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 1530934 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: BREVIA
    Description: Current emission inventories require an additional "unknown" source to balance the global atmospheric budgets of ethane (C2H6). Here, we provide evidence that a substantial part of the missing source can be attributed to natural gas seepage from petroliferous, geothermal, and volcanic areas. Such geologic sources also inject propane (C3H8) into the atmosphere. The analysis of a large data set of methane (CH4), ethane, and propane concentrations in surface gas emissions of 238 sites from different geographic and geologic areas, coupled with published estimates of geomethane emissions, suggests that Earth's degassing accounts for at least 17% and 10% of total ethane and propane emissions, respectively.
    Description: Published
    Description: 478
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Ethane ; Propane ; Geologic emissions ; Seepage ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Episodes of nonvolcanic tremor and accompanying slow slip recently have been observed in the subduction zones of Japan and Cascadia. In Cascadia, such episodes typically last a few weeks, and differ from “normal” earthquakes in their source location and momentduration scaling. The three most recent episodes in the Puget Sound/Southern Vancouver Island portion of the Cascadia subduction zone have been exceptionally well recorded. In each episode, we see clear pulsing of tremor activity with periods of 12.4 and 24-25 hours, the same as the principal lunar and lunisolar tides. This indicates that the small stresses associated with the solid-earth and ocean tides influence the genesis of tremor much more effectively than they do “normal” earthquakes. Because the lithostatic stresses are 105 times larger than those associated with the tides, we argue that tremor occurs on very weak faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: 186 -189
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Nonvolcanic ; tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On August 1, 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of this CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic earthquake forecasts over temporal scales that range from days to years. In the first round of forecast submissions, members of the CSEP- Italy Working Group presented 18 five-year and ten-year earthquake forecasts to the European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We have considered here the twelve time-independent earthquake forecasts among this set, and evaluated them with respect to past seismicity data from two Italian earthquake catalogs. We present the results of the tests that measure the consistencies of the forecasts according to past observations. As well as being an evaluation of the time-independent forecasts submitted, this exercise provides insight into a number of important issues in predictability experiments with regard to the specification of the forecasts, the performance of the tests, and the trade-off between robustness of results and experiment duration. We conclude with suggestions for the design of future earthquake predictability experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 11-30
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; CSEP experiment ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2009 April 6, Mw= 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake occurred within a complex system of NW–SE trending normal faults in the Abruzzi Central Apennines (Italy). We analyse the coseismic deformation as measured by 〉70 global positioning system (GPS) stations, both from continuous and survey-mode networks, providing unprecedented details for a moderate normal faulting earthquake in Italy from GPS measurements. We use rectangular, uniform-slip, dislocations embedded in an elastic, homogeneous and isotropic half-space and a constrained, non-linear optimization algorithm, to solve for the best-fitting rectangular dislocation geometry and coseismic-slip distribution. We use a bootstrap approach to investigate uncertainties in the model parameters and define confidence bounds for all the inverted parameters. The rupture occurred on a N129°E striking and 50° southwestward dipping normal fault, in agreement with geological observations of surface breaks along the Paganica fault. Our distributed slip model exhibits a zone of relatively higher slip (〉60 cm) between ∼1.5 and ∼11 km depth, along a roughly downdip, NW–SE elongated patch, confined within the fault plane inverted assuming uniform-slip. The highest slip, of the order of ∼1 m, occurred on a ∼16 km2 area located at ∼5 km depth, SE of the mainshock epicentre. The analysis of model resolution suggests that slip at depth below ∼5 km can be resolved only at a spatial scale larger than 2 km, so a finer discretization of different asperities within the main patch of coseismic-slip is not allowed by GPS data. We compute the coseismic Coulomb stress changes in the crustal volume affected by the major aftershocks, and compare the results obtained from the uniform-slip and the heterogeneous-slip models. We find that most of the large aftershocks occurred in areas of Coulomb stress increase of 0.2–13 bar and that a deepening of the slip distribution down to a depth greater than 6 km in the SE part of the fault plane, in agreement with the inverted slip model, can explain the deepest, April 7, Mw 5.3 aftershock.
    Description: Published
    Description: 473-489
    Description: 1.9. Rete GPS nazionale
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Space geodetic surveys ; Earthquake ground motions ; Earthquake source observations ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.
    Description: Published
    Description: 422-431
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: probabilistic forecasting ; statistical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor dis- placement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (H Max) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these ‘linear’ SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate ‘non-linear’ probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75–80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.
    Description: Published
    Description: 574-588
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami ; Hazard ; Probabilistic ; Subduction ; Mediterranean ; SPTHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Acidification of seawater is one of the aspect tightly linked to volcanic risk, due to the presence of submarine vents releasing abundant volcanic fluids. In aquatic system CO2 gas dissolves, hydrates and dissociates to form weak carbonic acid, which is the main driver of natural weathering reactions [Drever, 1997]. The result of the CO2 increase is seawater acidification. Vulcano Island, the southernmost of Aeolian Islands, is located in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy), approximately 18 miles off the NE coast of Sicily. The Baia di Levante can be considered a natural laboratory where almost all of the biogeochemical processes related to the ocean acidification can be studied. In this area many submarine vents release CO2. Four geochemical surveys of the Bay were carried out in April - September 2011 and May - June 2012. The main physic-chemical parameters (T, pH, Eh, electric conductivity) were measured at more than 70 sites and more than 40 samples for chemical analyses were collected at representative points. Major (Na, K, Mg, Ca, Cl, SO4) and some minor components (B, Sr, Fe) and trace elements (Mn, Mo, Al, U, Ce, Pb, Tm, Tb, Nd, Th) dissolved in water, the chemical composition of dissolved gases (He, H2, O2, N2, CH4 and CO2) and the isotopic composition of total dissolved inorganic carbon were determined in the laboratory. The bubbling CO2 produces a strong decrease in pH from the normal seawater value of 8.2 down to 5.5 (Figure 1). In the area close to the main degassing vents, characterized by very low pH, macroorganisms were absent. Acidification of sea water is one of the aspect tightly linked to volcanic risk, due to the presence of submarine vents releasing abundant volcanic fluids. At Baia di Levante, about 300 m from the main vents the seawater is only slightly acidic (pH 6.5 - 7.0) resembling the ocean water conditions in equilibrium with the high atmospheric CO2 concentrations expected in the near future. Therefore environments like this, naturally enriched in CO2, are good laboratories to study the consequences of ocean acidification on aquatic biota [Doney et al., 2009]. Furthermore acidification is tightly linked with the mobility and bio-availability of heavy metals [Millero et al., 2009] in sea water and volcanoes were always the favourite choice for human settlements; as a consequence economic anthropological activity, such as fishing, could be dangerous for human health, because of the presence toxic level of trace metals in the food chain due to the presence of the volcano’s. The present study could provide important information about the best environmental management of volcanic areas such as Vulcano Island
    Description: Published
    Description: Nicolosi (Catania)
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: open
    Keywords: ocean acidification ; environmental impact of volcanic activity ; volcanic gases ; trace elements ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.01. Biogeochemical cycles ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.03. Chemistry of waters ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Extended abstract
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Solfatara is one of the major volcanoes of the Phlegrean Fields (Campi Flegrei) volcanic complex, and it is located in a densely populated area a few kilometres west of the city of Naples. It is an active resurgent caldera that has been characterized by a rich history of surface–ground deformation and soil diffuse degassing and fumarolic emissions, which are indications of the top of a hydrothermal plume. A seismic survey was completed in May 2009 for the characterization of the main subsurface features of the Solfatara. Using the complete data set, we have carried out surface wave inversion with high spatial resolution. A classical minimization of a least-squares objective function was first computed to retrieve the dispersion curves of the surface waves. Then, the fitting procedure between the data and a three-sedimentlayer forward model was carried out (to a depth of 7 m), using an improved version of the neighbourhood algorithm. The inversion results indicate a NE-SW fault, which is not visible at the surface. This was confirmed by a temperature survey conducted in 2010. A passive seismic experiment localized the ambient noise sources that correlate well with the areas of high CO2 flux and high soil temperatures. Finally, considering that the intrinsic attenuation is proportional to the frequency, a centroid analysis provides an overview of the attenuation of the seismic waves, which is closely linked to the petrophysical properties of the rock. These different approaches that merge complete active and passive seismic data with soil temperature and CO2 flux maps confirm the presence of the hydrothermal system plume. Some properties of the top of the plume are indicated and localized.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1725–1733
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Inverse theory ; Tomography ; Hydrothermal systems ; Europe ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.04. Measurements and monitoring ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.05. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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