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  • Articles  (45)
  • Earthquake prediction  (28)
  • paleolimnology  (17)
  • Springer  (45)
  • 1985-1989  (32)
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  • 1
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: British Columbia ; chironomids ; Pacific Northwest ; paleoclimate ; paleolimnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Chironomids typical of cold, well-oxygenated, oligotrophic environments are common in late-Pleistocene deposits, but these taxa are rare in Holocene sediments of most small temperate lakes. Hypotheses to explain the demise of these taxa include variations in climate, lake trophic state, lake levels, terrestrial vegetation, and/or sediment composition. In southwestern British Columbia, this demise correlates with palynological evidence for a lodgepole pine decline, and for rapid climatic amelioration, at about 10 000 yr B.P. Faunal changes are poorly correlated with lithological boundaries. The similar timing of the declines among lakes suggests that a regional influence, climate, has possibly been the principal determinant of early chironomid faunal succession.
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: acidification ; diatoms ; sediment chemistry ; magnetic stratigraphy ; soot ; paleolimnology ; Wales
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A variety of paleolimnological techniques, coupled with historical data on land-use and fisheries, are used to evaluate the magnitude, timing, and causes of acidification of Llyn Hir, a moorland lake in central Wales. pH reconstruction based on diatom analysis suggests a gradual decline in lakewater pH beginning ca. 1870 and intensifying in the mid-1930's, with a total decline of 1.1 pH units between 1870 and 1984. This pH decline correlates with increased sedimentary concentrations of carbonaceous particles, trace metals, and magnetic minerals, which indicate the local deposition of atmospherically transported products of fossil-fuel combustion. Pollen data and the historical record show no significant alterations in land-use or catchment vegetation, indicating that acidification of Llyn Hir is a result of the increased deposition of atmospheric pollutants, not of land-use and vegetation change.
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: alpine ; arctic ; Chironomidae ; Chaoborus ; Ceratopogonidae ; lake typology ; paleoclimate ; paleolimnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The altitudinal distribution of Chironomidae (Diptera) in the southern Canadian Cordillera was analyzed by means of head capsules preserved in surficial sediments of 30 lakes. Taxa characteristic of late-glacial deposits of southern, coastal British Columbia are extant at high elevations, particularly in the Rocky Mountains, and in large, deep, low-elevation lakes. Many chironomid taxa common at low elevations in the southern Canadian Cordillera were not found in alpine and upper subalpine lakes. These faunal differences are probably climatically related. The differences in fauna between high and low-elevation lakes parallel differences between arctic and temperate lakes.
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  • 4
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    Journal of paleolimnology 2 (1989), S. 147-158 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; pigments ; varves ; mixing ; resolution ; benthos
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Effects of sediment mixing and benthic algal production on fossil pigment profiles were quantified by fine-interval analysis of cores in a transect across the basin of Paul Lake, MI. Annually resolved profiles (1957–1986) of carotenoids and chlorophyll a from varved sediments at deepwater (15 m) sites were compared to fine-interval (2.5–3.5 mm) stratigraphies from sites with increasing sediment mixing and benthic algal production (4 m〉7 m〉9 m). The degree of sediment mixing was also modelled using running means of pigment concentrations in varved sediments and compared to disturbed profiles. Effects of sediment mixing included reduction of peak pigment concentrations, broadening of peaks and migration of maxima deeper into deposits. Sedimentary signal strength was defined as the ratio of peak concentrations to baseline levels. Short-lived or weak signals (∼ 1.5 x baseline) were resolved only in the least disturbed deposits, while strong signals (5 x baseline) withstood sediment homogenization to depths greater than 1 cm (〉5 year accumulation). Comparison of core-wide mean pigment concentrations suggested that cores recovered from within the photic zone are influenced by benthic algal production and will not represent either historical or current ecological dynamics in the water column. We conclude that: moderate levels of mixing do not destroy fossil pigment profiles; disturbed stratigraphies can remain ecologically interpretable; and fine-interval analyses are warranted in lakes with undisturbed 137Cs profiles and where sediment porosity 〈90%.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: acid rain ; biostratigraphy ; diatoms ; paleolimnology ; lake acidification ; Sierra Nevada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We have completed a paleolimnological analysis of sediment cores from four lakes in the Sierra Nevada Range of California (USA). The diatom-inferred pH profile from Harriet Lake in Yosemite National Park (present pH=6.52) indicates no significant trends over the last 250 years. Inferred pH from Emerald Lake in Sequoia National Park (present pH=6.10) indicates a very small increase (〈0.1 pH unit) over the past 60 years and perhaps another small increase (ca. 0.15 pH unit) since 1976. Eastern Brook Lake in Inyo National Forest (present pH=7.06) shows evidence of both long-term alkalinification (ca. 0.3 pH unit over the last 200 years) and pH fluctuations since 1970. Lake 45 in King's Canyon National Park (present pH=5.16) appears to have acidified slightly (ca. 0.2 pH unit) over the last 60 years. Factors causing the observed trends are uncertain, but a role for acidic deposition cannot be ruled out.
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  • 6
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    Journal of paleolimnology 2 (1989), S. 263-283 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; lake ; lake sediment ; Quaternary ; limnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract I describe Quaternary paleolimnology on the basis of a review of abstracts published for meetings of: (1) American Society of Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO), 10 meetings since 1980; (2) International Association of Theoretical and Applied Limnology (SIL), 4 since 1977, (3) International Symposia on Paleolimnology (ISP), 4 since 1967, and (4) International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA), 5 since 1969. A total of 9538 abstracts were scanned to find 678 with paleolimnological content. A data base constructed from the 678 contains frequencies of coverage of techniques, parameters, themes, interpretive aspects, and character and geography of study sites. These data indicate that Quaternary paleolimnology has been a diverse science dealing with many of the same aspects of lakes as neolimnology but with a longer time perspective. Most frequently studied paleolimnological characteristics were trophic state, water chemistry (particularly salinity, pH, alkalinity (ANC), micronutrients and oxygen), water levels, lake morphology, and mixis and other hydrology. Lake biological parameters that received greatest attention were diatoms, pigments, Cladocera, Mallomonadaceae, non-siliceous algae, Ostracoda, and Mollusca. Most often considered to influence these characteristics and parameters were climate; catchment vegetation, soil, geology, land use and erosion; water chemistry; aerial and non aerial pollutants; sedimentation; and tectonism. Most frequent chronologic sequences were (1) late-glacial to present, and (2) modern (ca. 0.3 ka to present). Lakes in moist temperate and boreal regions were most heavily studied. Of the four series, INQUA covered the longest time scales (to late Tertiary), but emphasized the last 100 ka. INQUA stressed outside-lake geomorphology (as it relates to lake) and lake morphology, physical forcing functions (e.g., climate and tectonism), hydrologic factors including water levels, paleosalinities, and reconstruction of paleoclimates. In contrast, SIL and ASLO rarely covered pre-15 ka. Most SIL and ASLO abstracts dealt with only the most recent ∼ 0.3 ka. Of strong interest to SIL and ASLO were the effects of catchment vegetation and soils, land uses, and pollutants (e.g., acid deposition) on past lake chemistry, biology, and trophic conditions. To infer these conditions from sediment contents, frequent use was made of modern analogues and, starting in the 1970's of microfossil (mostly diatoms) transfer functions based on calibration data sets. In several respects, ISP subject coverage and approaches were intermediate between those of INQUA and SIL/ASLO. Major improvements in paleolimnology have occurred since the 1960's, particularly in the areas of chronology and use of multivariate statistical techniques for paleoenvironmental inference based on microfossils. I conclude this paper with several suggestions for further advancement of the science.
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  • 7
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    Pure and applied geophysics 130 (1989), S. 661-686 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; precursory seismic activity ; foreshocks ; seismic moment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is $$d(\Sigma \sqrt {M_0 } )/dt = C/(t_f - t)^n$$ ,where $$\Sigma \sqrt {M_0 }$$ is the cumulative sum until time,t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C andn are constants; andt fis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock,t f,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of $$\Sigma \sqrt {M_0 }$$ versus time using successive estimates oft fin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination,r 2,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values ofn. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation logN=a−bM, and the productn timesb for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes.
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  • 8
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 9-21 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; Sevier Lake ; Great Basin ; western United States ; Lake Bonneville
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Sevier Lake is the modern lake in the topographically closed Sevier Lake basin, and is fed primarily by the Sevier River. During the last 12 000 years, the Beaver River also was a major tributary to the lake. Lake Bonneville occupied the Sevier Desert until late in its regressive phase when it dropped to the Old River Bed threshold, which is the low point on the drainage divide between the Sevier Lake basin and the Great Salt Lake basin. Lake Gunnison, a shallow freshwater lake at 1390 m in the Sevier Desert, overflowed continuously from about 12 000 to 10 000 yr B.P., into the saline lake in the Great Salt Lake basin, which continued to contract. This contrast in hydrologic histories between the two basins may have been caused by a northward shift of monsoon circulation into the Sevier Lake basin, but not as far north as the Great Salt Lake basin. Increased summer precipitation and cloudiness could have kept the Sevier Lake basin relatively wet. By shortly after 10 000 yr B.P. Lake Gunnison had stopped overflowing and the Sevier and Beaver Rivers had begun depositing fine-grained alluvium across the lake bed. Sevier Lake remained at an altitude below 1381 m during the early and middle Holocene. Between 3000 and 2000 yr B.P. the lake expanded slightly to an altitude of about 1382.3 m. A second expansion, probably in the last 500 years, culminated at about 1379.8 m. In the mid 1800s the lake had a surface altitude of 1379.5 m. Sevier Lake was essentially dry (1376 m) from 1880 until 1982. In 1984–1985 the lake expanded to a 20th-century high of 1378.9 m in response to abnormally high snow-melt runoff in the Sevier River. The late Holocene high stands of Sevier Lake were most likely related to increased precipitation derived from westerly air masses.
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  • 9
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; acidification ; diatoms ; chydorids ; scaled chrysophytes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In a sediment core of Lake Kleiner Arbersee, located in the Bavarian Forest on gneiss bedrock and with spodosolic soils in the catchment, acidification was reconstructed using assemblages of chydorids, scaled chrysophytes, and diatoms as paleoindicators. All paleoindicators demonstrated acidification of Kleiner Arbersee. There were marked differences, however, in the extent of the indicated acidification: In lower layers, where scaled chrysophytes and chydorids clearly indicate beginning acidification, pH-decline inferred by diatoms lies within the standard deviation, and is statistically not significant until the 7 cm layer. We conclude that mallomonadaceans reflect the acidification of the water body and strongly respond to the lowest seasonal pH, as their indicated rate of acidification is higher than that of diatoms, which appear to more closely indicate the pH of the sediment/water interface, especially when the pH of the water column has dropped below ca. 5.5. Chydorids may additionally be influenced by proton release of dense Sphagnum-stands, which cover the littoral of Kleiner Arbersee completely.
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  • 10
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 215-227 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Carotenoids ; degradation ; myxoxanthophyll ; β-carotene ; sediment ; paleolimnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Reversed-phase thin layer chromatography was used to quantify carotenoid degradation resulting from the in vitro decomposition of Oscillatoria utermöhlii. Laboratory conditions simulated lacustrine sediments. The effects of light, oxygen, temperature and the presence of a sedimentary bacterial flora on the rate and extent of degradation were evaluated. Under anaerobic conditions, bacterially-mediated decomposition of O. utermöhlii did not result in statistically significant (P〉0.05) declines in the concentrations of most carotenoids at either 6 °C after 37 weeks or 21 °C after 26 weeks. Light, in the absence of oxygen, did not promote carotenoid degradation. Carotenoid concentrations declined linearly with time (25%–62% lost by 37 weeks) in a dark environment exposed to the atmosphere at 6 °C, but only if algae were exposed to lake sediments or water containing natural, lacustrine bacterial populations. No distinct difference between the rates of carotene and xanthophyll destruction was noted, although myxoxanthophyll was more labile than other cyanophyte carotenoids, especially at 21 °C (85% loss by 26 weeks). Based on these results and published descriptions of algal decomposition kinetics, I conclude that; 1) the high sedimentary carotenoid concentrations typical of productive lakes may reflect a preferential loss of nonpigmented organic matter and, 2) sedimentary bacterial activity alone may not affect the reliability of carotenoids as paleolimnological indicators of past algal abundances in lakes with completely anoxic sediments.
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  • 11
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 249-267 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; river diversion ; climate change ; pollen ; diatoms ; ostracodes ; brine shrimp
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology.
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  • 12
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 85-97 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: land-water interactions ; limnology ; paleolimnology ; 210Pb ; sediment geochemistry ; West Indies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Lake Miragoane, Haiti is one of the largest, natural freshwater lakes in the Caribbean (A=7.06 km2, zmax=41.0 m, conductivity = 350 μS cm−1). Lake waters are dominated by calcium and bicarbonate ions. The lake was thermally stratified, and oxygen profiles were clinograde during summer visits in 1983 and 1985. A 72-cm mud-water interface core was taken near the center of the lake and dated with 210Pb. The local 210Pb fallout rate is low (0.09 pCi cm−2 yr−1), about 20% of the global average. Bulk sedimentation rates ranged from 0.008 to 0.030 g cm−2 yr−1 during the past 130 years (0–8 cm depth). Sediment geochemistry and pollen have been analyzed in the topmost 58 cm of the section. Tentative ages were assigned to the core by extrapolation of 210Pb dates. According to this preliminary chronology, the bottom part of the core (58–30 cm) records pre-Columbian sedimentation (1000–500 B.P.) and contains pollen evidence of intact, dry and mesic forest. Pre-Columbian deposits are rich in organic matter (x = 30%) and relatively poor in carbonates (x = 15% as CO2). The top 30 cm of the core preserve the record since European contact (500 B.P. to present). Pollen data reveal two episodes of deforestation following European arrival. Consequent soil erosion is documented by a decrease in organic matter content (x = 15%) and an increase in carbonates (x = 27% as CO2). Surficial sediments reflect the widespread deforestation and soil loss that characterize the watershed today.
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  • 13
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 115-131 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: diatom succession ; climate ; Minnesota lakes ; sediment traps ; paleolimnology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Sediment traps placed in the profundal region of Elk Lake, north central Minnesota during the 1979 spring and 1983–84 fall and spring seasons monitored seasonal diatom production for two climatically distinctive periods. The spring of 1979 was one of the coldest and wettest on record. Ice out at Elk Lake was 10 days later than average, and spring circulation was short. Fragilaria crotonensis dominated the late spring and early summer diatom production in association with Synedra and Cyclotella species, perhaps because rates of phosphorus supply were low compared to silica. The winter of 1983–84 was drier than usual, and the early but cold spring of 1984 caused ice out at Elk Lake to be about 1 week earlier than normal. Spring storms promoted a long and full circulation that allowed Stephanodiscus minulutus to bloom, presumably in response to increased phosphorus loading related to deep and vigorous circulation. The two dominant diatoms in Elk Lake, F. crotonensis and S. minutulus may reflect climatic patterns that control lake circulation. The climatically regulated occurrence of these diatoms is generally, but not specifically, comparable to their distribution in lake surface sediments throughout Minnesota. A combination of regional and lake-specific studies on the controls of diatom succession and distribution provides climatic insights for interpreting paleolimnogical records of diatoms.
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  • 14
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 141-147 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: paleolimnology ; peatlands ; Holocene fossils ; Habrotrocha angusticollis ; Bdelloidea ; Rotifera ; Ontario ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Holocene fossil shells of the rotifer, Habrotrocha angusticollus (Bdelloidea: Rotifera) is reported from two peatlands in northern Ontario, Canada. H. angusticollis is a common component of the microfauna in Sphagnum peatlands and other wet mossy habitats. Our knowledge of the distribution and ecology of H. angusticollis is limited and this paper is the first detailed report of the shells as fossils in North America. Fossil shells of H. angusticollis may prove to be a valuable paleoecological indicator in peat deposits once Quaternary paleoecologists learn to recognize them and neoecologists extend their surveys to peatlands.
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  • 15
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 23-38 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: diatoms ; paleolimnology ; diatom-inferred pH ; acidification ; Quebec
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Surface sediment diatoms from 35 soft-water lakes in southern Quebec were studied to examine the relationship with lakewater pH. The lakes ranged in pH from 5.25 to 7.66. The species composition and the relative abundance of diatoms in the study lakes was found to be closely related to pH and/or factors closely associated with pH. Predictive models were developed to infer lakewater pH using simple linear regression equations of index alpha, index B, and multiple regressions using pH preference categories. Among the predictive models examined here, the multiple regression technique provided the highest correlation coefficient (r2=0.88) and the lowest standard error (±0.26 of a pH unit) in computing diatom-inferred pH. This model appears to be the most appropriate to reconstruct lake pH histories in Quebec region.
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  • 16
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    Journal of paleolimnology 1 (1988), S. 201-213 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: carotenoids ; grazing ; Daphnia ; paleolimnology ; degradation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Reverse-phase thin layer chromatography was used to quantify algal carotenoid degradation resulting from grazing by Daphnia magna in suspensions of lyophilized Oscillatoria utermöhlii, O. limnetica, Anabaena flos-aquae and Synechococcus sp. Three samples were removed every 24 h from 0 h to 144 h and the carotenoid, carbon and nitrogen content of the remaining algal-fecal mixture was determined. Grazing by Daphnia reduced carotenoid concentrations by 30%–80% after 144 h, with myxoxanthophyll being the most labile pigment in experiments with filamentous cyanophytes. However, as a group, the carotenoids were more resistant to the combined effects of grazing by Daphnia and bacterial action than were particulate algal carbon (78% to 82% lost by 144 h) or nitrogen (86%–90%) during the period in which easily digestible material remained. The maximal extent of carotenoid enrichment relative to particulate carbon ranged from 150% to 300% of initial pigment concentrations but declined with repeated coprophagy. On the basis of these results and published pigment budgets, we conclude both that fecal transportation of pigments may be an important determinant of carotenoid accumulation rates and that carotenoid stratigraphies should record predator-mediated changes in zooplankton community structure, especially in oligotrophic conditions.
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  • 17
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 619-641 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; earthquake instability ; subduction ; Nankai Trough
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract An earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The model is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido earthquake. In model simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace.
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  • 18
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 279-318 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; precursory quiescence ; quiescence ; seismicity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date. In addition to these successes, the number of detailed post-mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing. These facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future. For this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon. The history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and ‘seismic preconditions’ as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence. These papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis. During the early 1980's the impact of man-made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time. Despite progress in catalog understanding, the identification and correction of man-made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data. Effects of man-made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns, making the results difficult to evaluate. Recent experience with real-time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors. Determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance. A number of successful predictions, which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence, provide important lessons for present and future work. There are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor.
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  • 19
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 211-240 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; epicentral distance of precursor ; groundwater level ; intermediateterm precursor ; precursor time ; reversible water-level change ; short-term precursor ; temperature of thermal water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Since 1976 groundwater-levels and the temperature of thermal water have been monitored in 100 wells distributed mostly in the southern Kanto and Tokai districts of Japan in order to predict earthquakes. Good examples of groundwater precursors were recognized prior to the following destructive earthquakes: the 1978 West Off Izu-Oshima Earthquake (M 7.0), the 1978 Off Miyagi Earthquakes (M 7.4), and the 1980 East Off Izu Peninsula Earthquake (M 6.7). In the 1978 West Off Izu-Oshima Earthquake, groundwater levels and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) volume strainmeters, installed in the Izu peninsula, showed precursory changes at about the same time. In the other cases, however, precursory behavior was observed only in water level and temperature monitoring. Empirical relations are given between earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance of the farthest groundwater anomaly, and between earthquake magnitude and the precursor time of groundwater.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 319-332 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; seismicity patterns ; seismic quiescence
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence to mainshocks with magnitudes fromM L=4.7 toM S=8.0 are summarized. The amount of rate decrease ranges from 45% to 90%. The significance of these changes varies between 90% and 99.99%. The assumption that the background rate is approximately constant is fulfilled in most crustal volumes studied. All quiescence anomalies seem to have abrupt beginnings, and the rate during the anomalous period is fairly constant. The duration of the precursors ranges from 15 to 75 months, and it is not clear what factors determine that time. At least three successful predictions have been based on seismic quiescence. These cases have shown that mainshocks can be predicted based on quiescence, but they have also shown that the interpretation of the data in real time is difficult and nonunique. If a false alarm is defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area, then we estimate, based on searches in four areas, that the false alarm rate may be on the order of 50%. Failure to predict may be expected in perhaps 50% of mainshocks, even in carefully monitored areas. Quiescence cannot be used as a precursor in tectonic environments with low seismic activity. Most characteristics of the phenomenon are still poorly defined, but data exist which probably permit at least a doubling of the presently available data on case histories.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 373-406 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; quiescence ; seismic quiescence ; statistics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Numerous cases of precursory seismic quiescence have been reported in recent years. Some investigators have interpreted these observations as evidence that seismic quiescence is a somewhat reliable precursor to moderate or large earthquakes. However, because failures of the pattern to predict earthquakes may not, in general, be reported, and because numerous earthquakes are not preceded by quiescence, the validity and reliability of the quiescence precursor have not been established. We have analyzed the seismicity rate prior to, and in the source region of, 37 shallow earthquakes (M 5.3–7.0) in central California and Japan for patterns of rate fluctuation, especially precursory quiescence. Nonuniformity in rate for these pre-mainshock sequences is relatively high, and numerous intervals with significant (p〈0.10) extrema in rate are observed in some of the sequences. In other sequences, however, the rate remains within normal limits up to the time of the mainshock. Overall, in terms of an observational basis for intermediate-term earthquake prediction, no evidence is found in the cases studied for a systematic, widespread or reliable pattern of quiescence prior to the mainshocks. In earthquake sequences comprising full seismic cycles for 5 sets of (M 3.7–5.1) repeat earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Bear Valley, California, the seismicity rates are found to be uniform. A composite of the estimated rate fluctuations for the sequences, normalized to the length of the seismic cycle, reveals a weak pattern of a low rate in the first third of the cycle, and a high rate in the last few months. While these observations are qualitative, they may represent weak expressions of physical processes occurring in the source region over the seismic cycle. Re-examination of seismicity rate fluctuations in volumes along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault specified by Wyss and Burford (1985) qualitatively confirms the existence of low-rate intervals in volumes 361, 386, 382, 372 and 401. However, only the quiescence in volume 386 is found by the present study to be statistically significant.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 589-617 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; foreshocks ; aftershocks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Current methods for calculation of long-term probabilities for the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific fault segments are based upon models of the faulting process that implicitly assume constant stress rates during the interval separating earthquakes and instantaneous failure at a critical stress threshold. However, observations indicate that the process of stress recovery following an earthquake involves rate variations at all time scales in addition to stress steps caused by nearby earthquakes. Additionally, the existence of foreshocks, aftershocks and possible precursory processes suggest that there may be significant time dependence of the earthquake nucleation process. A method for determining the conditional probabilities for earthquake occurrence under conditions of irregular stressing is developed that could be useful at all time scales including those pertinent to short-and intermediate-term prediction. Used with models for earthquake occurrence at a stress threshold, the addition of variable stressing introduces a simple scaling of the conditional probabilities by stress level and stress rate. A model for the time-dependent nucleation of earthquake slip has been proposed recently that is based upon laboratory observations of fault strength. This failure criterion results in large but relatively short duration changes in the probability of earthquake recurrence particularly following stress steps. Applied to populations of earthquakes the models predicts a 1/t decay of seismicity following stress steps as observed for aftershocks and for frequency of foreshock-mainshock pairs. The model suggests that variations of seismicity rates of small earthquakes in the nucleation zone of the expected earthquake directly indicate variations in probability of recurrence of the large earthquake.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 701-718 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; earthquake mechanism ; dilatancy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract In the past decade there have been major advances in understanding the seismic cycle in terms of the recognition of characteristic patterns of seismicity over the entire tectonic loading cycle. The most distinctive types of patterns are seismic quiescences, of which three types can be recognized:post-seismic quiescence, which occurs in the region of the rupture zone of an earthquake and persists for a substantial fraction of the recurrence time following the earthquake,intermediate-term quiescences, which appear over a similar region and persist for several years prior to large plate-rupturing earthquakes, andshort-term quiescences, which are pronounced lulls in premonitory swarms that occur in the hypocentral region hours or days before an earthquake. Although the frequency with which intermediate-term and short-term quiescences precede earthquakes is not known, and the statistical significance of some of the former has been challenged, there is a need, if this phenomena is to be considered a possibly real precursor, to consider physical mechanisms that may be responsible for them. The characteristic features of these quiescences are reviewed, and possible mechanisms for their cause are discussed. Post-seismic quiescence can be readily explained by any simple model of the tectonic loading cycle as due to the regional effect of the stress-drop of the previous principal earthquake. The other types of quiescence require significant modification to any such simple model. Of the possibilities considered, only two seem viable in predicting the observed phenomena, dilatancy hardening and slip weakening. Intermediate-term quiescences typically occur over a region equal to or several times the size of the rupture zone of the later earthquake and exhibit a relationship between the quiescence duration and size of the earthquake: they thus involve regional hardening or stress relaxation and agree with the predictions of the dilatancy-diffusion theory. Short-term quiescences, on the other hand, are more likely explained by fault zone dilatancy hardening and/or slip weakening within a small nucleation zone. Because seismicity is a locally relaxing process, seismicity should follow a behaviour known in rock mechanics as the Kaiser effect, in which only a very slight increase in strength, due to dilatancy hardening or decrease in stress due to slip weakening, is required to cause quiescence. This is in contrast to other precursory phenomena predicted by dilatancy, which require large dilatant strains and complete dilatancy hardening.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 687-700 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; earthquake precursor ; physical precursor ; tectonic precursor ; 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ; 1923 Kanto earthquake
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract I suggest that earthquake precursors can be divided into two major categories, physical and tectonic. I define physical precursor to be a direct or indirect indication of initiation or progression of an irreversible rupture-generating physical process within the preparation zone of a forthcoming earthquake. Tectonic precursor is defined as a manifestation of tectonic movement which takes place outside the preparation zone of an impending earthquake as a link in a chain of particular local tectonism in each individual area preceding the earthquake. Most intermediate-term, short-term and immediate precursors of various disciplines within the source regions of main shocks are considered physical ones. Some precursory crustal deformations around the source regions are, however, possibly tectonic precursors, because they may be caused by episodic plate motions or resultant block movements in the neighboring regions of the fault segments that will break. A possible example of this phenomena is the anomalous crustal uplift in the Izu Peninsula, Japan, before the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ofM s 6.8. Some precursory changes in seismicity patterns in wide areas surrounding source regions also seem to be tectonic precursors, because they were probably caused by the particular tectonic setting of each region. A typical example is a so-called doughnut pattern before the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake ofM s 8.2. Although most studies on earthquake precursors so far seem to regard implicitly all precursory phenomena observed as physical ones, the two categories should be distinguished carefully when statistical analysis or physical modeling is carried out based on reported precursory phenomena. In active plate boundary zones, where a practical strategy for earthquake prediction may well be different from that in intraplate regions, tectonic precursors can be powerful additional tools for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 177-209 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; hydrologic precursors ; water level
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstracts This review summarizes reports of anomalous flow rates or pressures of groundwater, oil, or gas that have been interpreted as earthquake precursors. Both increases and decreases of pressure and flow rate have been observed, at distances up to several hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter, with precursor times ranging from less than one day to more than one year. Although information that might rule out nontectonic causes does not appear in many published accounts of hydrologic anomalies, several recent studies have critically evaluated the possible influences of barometric pressure, rainfall, and groundwater or oil exploitation. Anomalies preceding the 1976 Tangshan, China, and the 1978 Izu-Oshima-Kinkai, Japan, earthquakes are especially well-documented and worthy of further examination. Among hydrologic precursors, pressure head changes in confined subsurface reservoirs are those most amenable to quantitative interpretation in terms of crustal strain. The response of pressure head to earth tides determines coefficients of proportionality between pressure head and crustal strain. The same coefficients of proportionality should govern the fluid pressure response to any crustal strain field in which fluid flow in the reservoir is unimportant. Water level changes in response to independently recorded tectonic events, such as earthquakes and aseismic fault creep, provide evidence that a calibration based on response to earth tides may be applied to crustal strains of tectonic origin. Several models of earthquake generation predict accelerating stable slip on part of the future rupture plane. If precursory slip has moment less than or equal to that of the impending earthquake, then the coseismic volume strain is an upper bound for precursory volume strain. Although crustal strain can be only crudely estimated from most reported pressure head anomalies, the sizes of many anomalies within 150 kilometers of earthquake epicenters appear consistent with this upper bound. In contrast, water level anomalies at greater epicentral distances appear to be larger than this bound by several orders of magnitude. It is clear that water level monitoring can yield information about the earthquake generation process, but progress higes on better documentation of the data.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 267-278 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; radon ; groundwater ; geochemical precursor
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Detection of precursory phenomena in observation data is essential to earthquake prediction studies. Continuous monitoring of radon concentration in groundwater in Japan in one case showed a short-term anomaly related to a nearby earthquake. With the exception of the 1978 Izu-Oshimakinkai earthquake (M7.0), however, no abnormal change has been noted. This may be due partially to difficulty in detecting insignificant precursory signals from observation data, which ordinarily contains a noise-induced fluctuations, and partially to lack of understanding of the mechanism controlling the appearance of precursory phenomena. In order to increase our knowledge of the variation pattern of precursory changes in radon concentration of groundwater, hydrologic precursors with significant features are examined in this paper. Complexity of appearance of precursory phenomena and problems in assignment of the specific earthquake are discussed.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 333-356 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; seismic quiescence ; San Andreas fault
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM L ≥4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM L =4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM L =5.0. Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M S =7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence. The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 126 (1988), S. 241-266 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; earthquake precursors
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    Notes: Abstract Studies of earthquake precursory phenomena during the last several decades have found that significant geophysical and geochemical changes can occur prior to intermediate and large earthquakes. Among the more intensely investigated geochemical phenomena have been: (1) changes in the concentrations of dissolved ions and gases in groundwaters and (2) variations in the concentrations of crustal and mantle volatiles in ground gases. The concentration changes have typically showed no conanomalies trend (either increasing or decreasing), and the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed anomalies have been highly variable. As a result, there is little agreement on the physical or chemical processes responsible for the observed anomalies. Mechanisms proposed to account for precursory groundwater anomalies include ultrasonic vibration, pressure sensitive solubility, pore volume collapse, fracture induced increases in reactive surfaces, and aquifer breaching/fluid mixing. Precursory changes in soil gas composition have been suggested to result from pore volume collapse, micro-fracture induced exposure of fresh reactive silicate surfaces, and breaching of buried gas-rich horizons. An analysis of the available field and laboratory data suggests that the aquifer breaching/fluid mixing (AB/FM) model can best account for many of the reported changes in temperature, dissolved ion and dissolved gas concentrations in groundwater. Ultrasonic vibration and pressure sensitive solubility models cannot reasonably account for the geochemical variations observed and, although the pore collapse model could explain some of the observed chemical changes in groundwater and ground gas, uncertainties remain regarding its ability to generate anomalies of the magnitude observed. Other geochemical anomalies, in particular those associated with hydrogen and radon, seem best accounted for by increases in reactive surface areas (IRSA model) that may accompany precursory deformation around the epicenter of an impending earthquake. Analysis of the probable response of these models to the earthquake preparation process, as well as to other environmental factors, suggests that geochemical monitoring programs can provide information that may be valuable in forecasting the probability of an earthquake; however, because of the complexity of the earthquake preparation process, the absolute prediction of seismic events using geochemical methods alone, does not presently appear to be feasible.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 127 (1988), S. 1-19 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; seismic cycle ; seismic gaps ; aftershock identification ; positive and negative aftereffects ; self-similarity of seismic regime ; Aki's barriers
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog. Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM≥7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM≥8 in their 1o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM〉7 events in the vicinities. Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6≤M〈7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM≥7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog. The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places.
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    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; precursor ; seismicity ; ground tilt ; strain ; pre-slip ; model
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Data from an extensive routine network and a high-density temporary seismic observation using the ocean bottom seismometer in and around Suruga Bay, Japan, showed that a simultaneous increase of microearthquake seismicity occurred from mid-July 1984 (Ukawa et al., 1988). The area extended over a region of about 60 km (NS) × 80 km (EW), and is nearly included in the assumed fault zone of the presumed Tokai earthquake. The analyses of the bore-hole ground tilt and volumetric strain data revealed that an anomalous small ground tilt and volumetric strain change occurred at the time of the seismic activity with a duration of about a month. Data of geodetic measurements, groundwater, and radon content were examined with the result that many observational items showed small anomalies during that period. The observed crustal movement was compared with that of slip models of the Philippine Sea plate around Suruga Bay, suggesting that some type of episodic aseismic subducting motion occurred and, thus, caused a crustal movement in the overlying continental plate in the very region of the future fault zone.
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    Biogeochemistry 6 (1988), S. 79-90 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: chlorophyll ; grazing ; lakes ; paleolimnology ; pheophorbide ; sedimentation
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    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Budgets for chlorophyll a and selected degradation products were constructed during summer stratification in 1984 and 1985 in two lakes. In Paul Lake, the reference ecosystem, pigment sedimentation showed no significant interannual differences. In Tuesday Lake, fish manipulations in May 1985 changed the zooplankton from an assemblage of Bosmina and small cyclopoids to one of large cladoceran grazers. Sedimentation of pigments, especially the grazing indicator pheophorbide a, increased significantly as the grazer assemblage changed. Mean grazer size was positively related to pheophorbide deposition rate in both lakes. Results of this whole-lake experiment indicate that major changes in lake food webs alter pigment deposition rates.
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    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Adirondacks ; lake acidification ; acid precipitation ; paleolimnology ; diatoms ; chrysophytes ; chironomids ; geochemistry ; sulfur ; PAH
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Big Moose L. has become significantly more acidic since the 1950s, based on paleolimnological analyses of sediment cores. Reconstruction of past lakewater pH using diatom assemblage data indicates that from prior to 1800 to ca. 1950, lakewater pH was about 5.8. After the mid-1950s, the inferred pH decreased steadily and relatively quickly to about 4.6. Alkalinity reconstructions indicate a decrease of about 30 μeq · l-1 during the same period. There was a major shift in diatom assemblage composition, including a nearly total loss of euplanktonic taxa. Chrysophyte scale assemblages and chironomid (midge larvae remains also changed in a pattern indicating decreasing lakewater pH starting in the 1950s. Accumulation rates of total Ca, exchangeable and oxide Al, and other metals suggest recent lake-watershed acidification. Cores were dated using210Pb, pollen, and charcoal. Indicators of watershed change (deposition rates of Ti, Si, Al) do not suggest any major erosional events resulting from fires or logging. Accumulation rates of materials associated with combustion of fossil fuels (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, coal and oil soot particles, some trace metals, and sulfur) are low until the late 1800s-early 1900s and increase relatively rapidly until the 1920s–1930s. Peak rates occurred between the late 1940s and about 1970, when rates declined. The recent decrease in pH of Big Moose L. cannot be accounted for by natural acidification or processes associated with watershed disturbance. The magnitude, rate and timing of the recent pH and alkalinity decreases, and their relationship to indicators of coal and oil combustion, indicate that the most reasonable explanation for the recent acidification is increased atmospheric deposition of strong acids derived from combustion of fossil fuels.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1172-1186 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Seismic gaps ; Tectonics of Japan
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The same term ‘seismic gaps’ has been used for different kinds of seismic gaps, resulting in some confusion. It is shown that there are two kinds of seismic gaps which are defined by two different features of seismic activity. One is a gap in the spatial distribution of rupture zones of the largest earthquakes in a seismic belt. This is termed a seismic gap of the first kind. A seismic gap of the first kind could be identified not only for great shallow earthquakes along plate boundaries, but also probably for smaller intra-plate earthquakes. The other is a gap in seismicity of smaller-magnitude earthquakes before larger earthquakes. This premonitory phenomenon is termed a seismic gap of the second kind. Focal regions of the largest earthquakes in an active seismic belt are frequently seismic gaps of both the first and the second kind. Some earthquakes, however, are not preceded by any appreciable premonitory gap (the second kind). This different feature in different cases may depend on the structural states of the earth's crust, such as heterogeneity.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1082-1147 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismic gaps ; Earthquake prediction ; Plate tectonics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1212-1228 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Seismic gaps ; Tectonics Iran ; Tectonics Pakistan
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Teleseismic activity in the Makran region of southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan prior to the great earthquake (Ms=8) of 1945 can be characterized in terms of two stages. First, during the period 30 (or more) to 10 years prior to the main event, the frequency of occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes was relatively high in the region between the impending rupture zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest. These events probably occurred near the down-dip limit of seismic activity within the subducted slab. Second, activity was concentrated along the coast during the ten years immediately preceding the great earthquake and most of this activity was confined to the vicinity of the epicenter of the 1945 earthquake. These patterns are similar in some respects to those observed prior to some large earthquakes in other parts of the world. Three observations concerning the pre-1945 seismicity suggest it was associated with the preparation for rupture of the zone that eventually broke during the great earthquake in 1945: (1) The activity before 1945 is located either within the 1945 rupture zone or between this zone and the volcanic arc to the northwest; (2) No activity of similar magnitude and occurrence rate is observed elsewhere along the Makran plate boundary; and (3) The region that was active prior to 1945 has been relatively quiet since the decline in aftershock activity associated with the 1945 shock. The current quiescence may be related to the release of stress during the 1945 earthquake. Recent seismicity in the region west of that affected prior to 1945 suggests that this western region may be the site of the next large earthquake. Events along the coast are grouped at both ends of a seismically quiet zone, producing a distribution similar to the ‘donut’ pattern identified by Mogi. In addition, one moderate-magnitude earthquake occurred within the subducted slab to the northwest of the donut pattern along the coast. This moderate-magnitude earthquake, the first to occur in the region immediately west of the 1945 rupture zone since the advent of instrumental recording, may be analogous to the activity of stage one associated with the 1945 earthquake. While by no means providing conclusive evidence of an impending earthquake, the characteristic patterns identified in the recent seismicity indicate that this region should be closely monitored in the future.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1187-1194 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Seismicity gap ; Tectonics of Mexico
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract An attempted use of seismic gap observations to predict a large earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico is discussed. The observations were initially published in a scientific journal and were subsequently distorted by noncientists, who predicted a major earthquake and tsunami to take place at Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca on 23 April 1978. Public reactions and property losess sustained by individuals and communities were comparable to those expected from an actual earthquake. A revision of epicenter locations from the NOAA data file revealed that a number of earthquakes did occur in the alleged gap but had been excluded because their reported focal depth was in excess of 60 km. It is shown that the probability that the number of earthquakes in two consecutive time intervals of a stationary Poisson process differs by an amount which would be reported as a ‘seismic gap’ is of the order of 5% or more for Oaxaca. This means that spurious ‘seismic gaps’ would be observed in one out of 20 data runs. The possibility of detecting a true interval of abnormal quiescence in a random earthquake sequence appears to be fairly remote in this case.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1258-1270 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Seismicity migration ; Tectonics of Turkey
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The North Anatolian fault is a well-defined tectonic feature extending for 1400 km across Northern Turkey. The space-time distribution of seismicity and faulting of this zone has been examined with a particular emphasis on the identification of possible seismic gaps. Results suggest several conclusions with respect to the temporal and spatial distribution of seismicity. First, the earthquake activity appears not to be stationary over time. Periods of high activity in 1850–1900 and 1940 to the present bracket a period of relatively low activity in 1910–39. Second, there appears to have been a two-directional migration of earthquake epicenters away from a central region located at about 39°E longitude. The migration to the west has a higher velocity (〉50 km/yr) than the migration to the east (≤10km/yr). The faulting associated with successive earthquakes generally abuts the previous rupture. Some existing gaps were filled by later earthquakes. At present there are two possible seismic gaps along the North Anatolian fault zone. One is at the western end of the fault, from about 29° to 30°E. Unless this is a region of ongoing aseismic creep, it could be the site of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake. The other possible gap is at the eastern end, from about 42° to 43°E, to the west of the unexpected M=7.3 event of 24 November 1976.
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  • 38
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Seismicity and rainfall ; Tectonics California
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract By comparing seasonal rainfall data from the past 90 years with the occurrence of large (M≥6) earthquakes along an arid stretch of the San Andreas fault system in southern California, certain correlations have been observed. Most large earthquakes are preceded by a pattern consisting of a few years of below normal precipitation (drought) terminated by one or more consecutive seasons of heavy (above normal) rainfall. While this drought-above normal rainfall cycle can be seen at times other than prior to major earthquakes, it precedes, to varying degrees, all of the twelve M≥6 events. This new precursor evidence, when combined with other premonitory signals, may offer a helpful diagnostic measure that could be useful in earthquake prediction in arid regions.
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  • 39
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1025-1044 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Earthquake precursory models ; Strain accumulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract During the earthquake preparation a zone of cracked rocks is formed in the region of a future earthquake focal zone under the influence of tectonic stresses. In the study of the surrounding medium this region may be considered as a solid inclusion with altered moduli. The inclusion appearance causes a redistribution of the stresses accompanied by corresponding deformations. This paper deals with the study of deformations at the Earth's surface, resulting from the appearance of a soft inclusion. The Appendix contains an approximate solution of the problem for a soft elastic inclusion in an elastic half-space. It is assumed that the moduli of the inclusion differ slightly from those of the surrounding medium (by no more than 30%). The solution permits us to calculate the deformations at the Earth's surface for the inclusion with an arbitrary heterogeneity and anisotropy. The problem is solved by the small perturbation method. The calculation is made for a special case of a homogeneous isotropic inclusion where only the shear modulus decreases. The shear stresses act at infinity. The equations are deduced for the estimation of deformations and tilts at the Earth's surface as a function of the magnitude of the preparing earthquake and the distance from the epicentre. Comparison has shown a satisfactory agreement between the theoretical and field results. Let us assume that the zone of effective manifestation of the precursor deformations is a circle with the centre in the epicentre of the preparing earthquake. The radius of this circle called ‘strain radius’ may be calculated from the equation $$\rho = 10^{0.43M} km,$$ where M is the magnitude. It was shown that the precursors of other physical nature fall into this circle.
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  • 40
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1271-1285 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Earthquake migration ; Tectonics South America
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Earthquake migration along linear seismic belts is investigated by analyzing spacetime diagrams using spectral analysis. In order to sample the earthquakes in the space-time domain, they must first be convolved with a (sinx sint)/xt surface to obtain an unbiased and alias free twodimensional Fourier spectrum. Further enhancements are provided by selectively stacking patterns (a pattern is defined as the distribution of earthquakes in space and time before a particular earthquake), thereby reinforcing the similarities within the various patterns. With these techniques, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the migration rates (from theirspatial frequencies) and recurrence intervals (from theirtemporal frequencies) of large earthquakes in South America. Preliminary examination of the spectra for South America indicates that a low frequency peak occurs at approximately 2500 km and 27 years for earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.7. The results suggest a migration rate of approximately 95 km/yr from south to north and a recurrence interval of 27 years.
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  • 41
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    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1301-1315 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; Crustal strain ; Tectonics of Japan
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Horizontal earth's strains preceding the Kanto, Japan, earthquake of 1, September 1923, are deduced from the analysis of the old triangulation data. The anomalous strains that are several times larger than usual tectonic strain are found in the western part of Tokyo Bay, Sagamihara district, Japan for the observational period 1882/91–1898/1910, while any significant strain is not revealed in the other region of the Kanto district. The Kanto district was surveyed twice during the period 1883/85–1890/92 in the west and during the period 1890/92–1897/99 in the east respectively. The polarity of the detected anomalous strains, the directions and the signs of the principal strains, are quite the same as those of the postseismic crustal strains during the period 1924–74, and are reversed as compared to the coseismic one. The Philippine Sea plate thrusts under the South Kanto district with N25°W direction and pulls down the land during the interseismic period. The aseismic reverse faulting would begin several decades before the 1923 Kanto earthquake along the deep interface between the Asian plate and the convergent Philippine Sea plate. The down-going along the locked part of the interface would be accelerated, thus the compressional stress on the earth's surface might be concentrated over the deep fault plane together with the acceleration of the subsidence at the tip of the peninsula close to the Sagami trough.
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  • 42
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    Pure and applied geophysics 116 (1978), S. 586-602 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Rock mechanics ; Earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Premonitory phenomena such as dilatancy, creep, acoustic emission, and changes in seismic velocity and attenuation, electrical resistivity, magnetic moment, and gas emission, which occur before fracture of initially intact rock and before stick-slip on faults or between finely ground surfaces of rock, have been reviewed and discussed in relation to earthquake prediction. This review is restricted to the results of laboratory experiments that have been carried out in the United States of America.
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  • 43
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    Pure and applied geophysics 115 (1977), S. 357-374 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismicity ; Earthquake prediction ; Stressin-situ
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Anomalous seismicity changes (increase followed by a decrease) were recorded prior to three moderate rock bursts in the Star mine, Burke, Idaho. In each case, based upon the anomalous seismicity behavior, miners were evacuated or were prohibited from entering active mine stopes that were located in the immediate vicinity of the seismicity buildup prior to the bursts. Analyses of pre- and post-seismic activity are interpreted in terms of, and shown to be consistent with, the inclusion theory of failure. Implications of these observational results for the problem of rock bursts and earthquake prediction are discussed.
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  • 44
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    Pure and applied geophysics 115 (1977), S. 375-385 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismicity ; Earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake. The most probable estimates are: 7 1/2±1/4 for the magnitude and ϕ=16.5°±0.5°N, λ=96.5°±0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.
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  • 45
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    Pure and applied geophysics 115 (1977), S. 675-692 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Seismology ; P wave residuals ; Travel-time anomalies ; Earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary Mean travel-time residuals of P waves for the period 1964–1970 at stations in North America and Europe are well separated into large domains of positive and negative values. The spatial distribution of residuals in North America is in good agreement with the structure of the upper mantle obtained from Rayleigh wave dispersion and is in accord with magnitude anomalies and heat flow data. A systematic variation of residuals in time is found to be sensitive to major changes in the nature of the earthquake source distribution, as for example aftershocks, as well as to changes in methods of detection of first arrivals. Residuals at neighboring stations are correlated up to distances of the order of 2°. Half year mean residuals at stations within 2° distance from the epicenters of strong earthquakes have a sudden jump 1.5 years before the occurrence of an earthquake. A formal algorithm based on this pattern permits prediction of the times of all 16 earthquakes with magnitudeM≥7.5 occurring during the interval 1966–1972. Although the average duration of the alarm periods is about half the total time interval of the catalog, so that the algorithm has no practical importance, these results are statistically significant on a 99% level of confidence.
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