ALBERT

Description: The paper presents a numerical model for the simulation of flood waves and suspended sediment transport in a lowland river basin of North Eastern Italy. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations are modified to take into account the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamics in partially dry areas, as for example, in the first stages of an inundation process or in tidal flow. The set of equations are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme where the effects of both the small channel network and the regulation devices on the flood wave propagation are accounted for. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the hydrodynamics using an appropriate form of the advection-dispersion equation and Exner's equation. Applications to a case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flooding on the Brenta River (Italy) are examined. Urban and rural flood risk areas are identified and the effects of a alleviating action based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon are simulated. The results show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important source of sediment for the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion due to currents and waves in the Venice Lagoon are presented.

Description: Large slope instabilities are gravitational phenomena whose main characteristics are the multi-km2 area extension and the complex geometrical, geomorphological and geomechanical settings. Several studies outlined their importance in spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards on wide mountain areas and their possible interaction in human activities. For the study of large slope instability and deep seated slope gravitational deformations in the Susa and Aosta Valleys (Western Italian Alps) a complete multiscale program (spatial and temporal) analysis has been performed, giving contributions to the reconstruction and settings of their possible evolution. A complex geodatabase has been created, including thematic elements from field-data collection (geomorphology, hydrology, lithology, structural geology) and instability events analysis from data archives and remote sensing images. To facilitate the management of a large amount of collected data a G.I.S. (Geographical Information System) has been developed, including two main levels of information: local and regional. Local information is mainly devoted to detailed geothematic mapping of single instability phenomena. Clot Brun case study is presented, where original and derived landslide features have been elaborated through arithmetical and statistical operations, in order to identify different instability zones and to assess displacements and state of activity through-time. Regional information collected for a landslide inventory of Aosta Valley (IFFI project) summarizes historical and remote sensing data, combined with metadata from local analysis, in order to assess spatial and temporal hazards. To avoid problems of data accuracy (quality and positioning) due to different source archives, a semi-automatic system for selection and validation of data has been created, based on their spatial characteristics (buffer analysis and control). G.I.S. technologies have been used to archive, manage and visualize collected data through 2-D and 3-D models of single case studies and regional distribution of large slope instabilities.

Description: The tidal changes of the barometric pressure in the area of Thessaloniki were studied by analysing a sample of 21 years of hourly measurements. The resulted tidal parameters (amplitude and phase difference) were considered as "mean values" of the corresponding parameters for this long time period. Using these parameters, barometric changes were computed and subtracted from the observations. Assuming that the residuals might include local (in terms of time) information,the residual time series was split in 21 blocks and a new analysis was performed for each block separately. The 21 amplitude values computed for each tidal wave were considered as the amplitude variation with respect to the correspondingmean value. An observable correlation of the amplitude exalting of the most of the tidal waves was found to Earthquakes of magnitude 〉4, occurred close to Thessaloniki in the test period.

Description: During the period 1996–2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.

Description: As over seventy percent of the land of Hong Kong is mountainous, rainfall-induced debris flows are not uncommon in Hong Kong. The objective of this study is to incorporate numerical simulations of debris flows with GIS to identify potential debris flow hazard areas. To illustrate this approach, the proposed methodology is applied to Leung King Estate in Tuen Mun. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the terrain and the potential debris-flow sources were generated by using GIS to provide the required terrain and flow source data for the numerical simulations. A theoretical model by Takahashi et al. (1992) improved by incorporating a new erosion initiation criterion was used for simulating the runout distances of debris flows. The well-documented 1990 Tsing Shan debris flow, which occurred not too far from Leung King Estate, was used to calibrate most of the flow parameters needed for computer simulations. Based on the simulation results, a potential hazard zone was identified and presented by using GIS. Our proposed hazard map was thus determined by flow dynamics and a deposition mechanism through computer simulations without using any so- called expert opinions, which are bounded to be subjective and biased.

Description: The method called "phase cone" is developed in order to define the location, time of arising and velocity of the earthquakes initiating the low-speed interference stress waves. From the data of the strong earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Caucasus region during 1900-1992, the immigrators or tectonic sources of low-speed waves were revealed, interference nodes of which had initiated 19 earthquakes out of total 33. The time of arising of low-speed stress waves or periods of awaking of tectonic sources is defined. The velocities of constant initiative waves for all events were calculated. Its average value is equal to 2.97km per year.

Description: Sediment – water flows occurring in mountain torrents may show a variety of regimes, ranging from water flows with transport of individual particles to massive transport of debris, as it occurs in case of debris flows. Sometimes it is possible, by means of accurate field investigations, to identify the kind of processes that took place in a torrent after the occurrence of an event. However this procedure cannot give indications regarding the development of the process in time. In fact, because of the frequent presence of different surges within the same event, the rheological characteristics of an event can be detected only when some recorded hydrographs or videos are available. For the same reason, since the rheological behaviour of the flow changes according to the solid concentration, the analysis of the materials deposited on the debris fan cannot directly give any information on the particular types of flow that took place: a possible alternation in time of different water sediment surges with different concentrations may have occurred, during the same event. The installation of ultrasonic gauges or videocameras along the torrent might give more information on this issue. To this regard, the analysis of a flow event which occurred in 2002 in the Moscardo torrent watershed, instrumented for debris flow monitoring, has been undertaken, studying the hydrographs recorded at two different ultrasonic gauges placed at a known distance along the torrent. An empirical flow resistance law has been applied analysing the values assumed by its parameters after calibration. The application of this law actually spans from debris flow and immature debris flow to bed load transport. Only field observations and surveys, together with ultrasonic data, may allow to clearly discriminate which type of flow really occurred. The analysis confirms that different water sediment surges alternated in time while the mathematical simulation of the flow compared with field observations revealed that the dynamic behaviour of the flow was different from that of previous debris flow events and might reflect, among the different types of possible rheological behaviors, a dilatant-type behavior typical of stony debris flows.

Description: During the first half of August 2002, a sequence of extreme precipitation episodes affected many regions of central and southern Europe, culminating in one of the most severe flooding events ever experienced along sections of the river Elbe and its tributaries. In this paper, the synoptic meteorological situation during the primary flooding event, 11-13 August 2002, and its recent background is illustrated and discussed. Then, backward trajectory modelling of water vapour transport is employed to determine the sources and transport pathways of the moisture which rained out during the event. The Lagrangian trajectory model FLEXTRA is used together with high resolution operational meteorological analyses from the ECMWF to track a very large number of trajectories, initialized in a dense three-dimensional grid array over the extreme rainfall region. Specific humidity changes along each trajectory are mapped out to yield source-receptor relationships between evaporation and subsequent precipitation for the event. Regions of significant surface evaporation of moisture which later rained out were determined to be parts of the Aegean and Ligurian Seas during the initial stages of the event, while strong evaporation from eastern European land surfaces and from the Black Sea became dominant later on. The method also provides precipitation estimates based solely on specific humidity changes along Lagrangian airmass trajectories, which can be compared to ECMWF model forecast precipitation estimates.

Description: In the XIX century when Mexico City was much smaller than at present, there was non-regulated mining of building materials in a region of tuffs northwest of the city in an inhabited countryside. With the growth of the city during the XX century, this region was increasingly populated and in the 1970's many two-level bricks houses were built, without regard for underground caves created by the earlier extractions. Some ground sinkings in adjacent areas alarmed the residents who now are worried about this permanent hazard. An association of residents contracted a private company for a geophysical study in order to know the distribution of the caves. Resistivity measurements were taken in the area to detect the caves in order to alert city authorities. Resistivity data along most of the streets were collected with the array pole-dipole that consisted of three grounded electrodes. We performed 2-D dimensional inversions to the data in order to get a 2-D resistivity image of every street. This is similar to a resistivity cross-section of the ground but obtained from the inversion of pole-dipole and Schlumberger resistivity data simultaneously. Using the information of previous drills we modified our programming code in order to perform constrained inversion and to get more accurate resistivity models in agreement with the drills. From the resistivity models obtained for every street it was possible to produce a map which shows the horizontal distribution of the resistive bodies at a depth of 12m. These resistive bodies show coherent alignments that seem to correspond with a distributions of interconnected caves or tunnels used for extracting the sandy-tuffs. From these kind of interpretation method it was intended to get a more accurate horizontal distribution of the excavated areas in order to better know the urbanized area affected and lead the authorities to remedy the area with refill material.

Description: The capability of evaluating and managing rockfall related risks is largely based on numerical modelling. Nevertheless, the reliability and accuracy of rockfall models is greatly affected by the strong uncertainty and spatial variability which characterise all the relevant parameters. In particular, 3D effects related to the variability of slope geometry and micro-topography play a major role in controlling the dynamics of falling blocks. The most important 3D effect is the "lateral dispersion" of rockfall trajectories, largely affecting the way we model rockfall dynamics, design countermeasures and assess rockfall hazard. Nevertheless, the dependence of lateral dispersion on different controlling factors has been hardly ever systematically evaluated. In this paper, the influence of different controlling factors on the dispersion of rockfall trajectories has been systematically evaluated by performing 3D parametric modelling. Numerical simulations have been performed through a new software code able to use both a lumped mass and an hybrid (kinematic-dynamic) approach. Parametric modelling has been performed at different spatial resolutions using sets of biplanar simplified slopes characterised by different mean inclination and roughness. Model results outlined a complex dependence of lateral dispersion phenomena on slope mean gradient (macro-topography), slope roughness (micro-topography) and the spatial resolution of the model (model-dependent topography). Furthermore, the sensitivity of model results in terms of kinematic variables of motion (i.e. velocity and height to the ground) to the factors controlling lateral dispersion has been evaluated, resulting in practical constraints on countermeasure design and hazard assessment.

Description: The assessment of historical data of small mountain torrents in Alpine catchment areas has shown a significant difference between the results of a regular hazard zone mapping and a thorough historical analysis. The Gemsbach in the Ostrach valley near Hinterstein (Municipality of Hindelang, southern Bavaria/Germany) serves, among others, as an example. A "traditional" hazard zone for the Gemsbach has been mapped in the 1990s. The oldest event included in the analysis was the flood of 1954. But historical data collected and analysed by the HANG-project shows flood-prone areas around the Gemsbach differing greatly in size and location from the one shown in the hazard zone maps. The inclusion of all data available for the Gemsbach area (15 events between 1671 and 1960 collected from four different archives) leads to a completely new picture of the regional hazardous activity and demands a re-structuring of the traditional way of hazard zone mapping.

Description: Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control) only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

Description: Numerical simulations of a bora event, recently occurred in the Adriatic area, are presented. Two reference runs at different horizontal resolution (about 20km and 8km) describe the case. Initial conditions for the atmospheric model integration are obtained from ECMWF analyses. Satellite data are used for comparisons. A further run at horizontal resolution of 8km, using initial satellite sea surface temperatures, is performed to evaluate their impact on the low level wind over the Adriatic Sea. All the simulations are carried out with 50 layers in the vertical. Numerous aspects of the simulations are found to be in agreement with the understanding as well as the observational knowledge of bora distinctive characteristics. Satellite data and model results indicate that a more realistic simulation of the bora wind over the sea is achieved using the model with 8km horizontal resolution and that the low level wind in this case is sensitive, though weakly, to the difference between the used sea surface temperature fields. Simulation results also show that both wind intensity and the area around wind peaks tend to increase when relatively higher sea surface temperatures are used.

Description: We present a GIS-based model for predicting debris-flows occurrence. The availability of two different digital datasets and the use of a Digital Elevation Model (at a given scale) have greatly enhanced our ability to quantify and to analyse the topography in relation to debris-flows. In particular, analysing the relationship between debris-flows and the various causative factors provides new understanding of the mechanisms. We studied the contact zone between the calcareous basement and the fluvial-lacustrine infill adjacent northern area of the Terni basin (Umbria, Italy), and identified eleven basins and corresponding alluvial fans. We suggest that accumulations of colluvium in topographic hollows, whatever the sources might be, should be considered potential debris-flow source areas. In order to develop a susceptibility map for the entire area, an index was calculated from the number of initiation locations in each causative factor unit divided by the areal extent of that unit within the study area. This index identifies those units that produce the most debris-flows in each Representative Elementary Area (REA). Finally, the results are presented with the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, and the need for further research.

Description: The probabilistic approach that was recently introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998,1999) was applied for the estimation of seismic hazard for various sites in Greece in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV). These sites represent geographically cities of Greece among which are the capital of Greece and some others with high, intermediate and low seismicity. The approach allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incomplete reported historical and complete instrumental data, the consideration of different magnitude thresholds, and the incorporation of magnitude uncertainties. One of the advantages of the method is that it does not require any determination of seismic zones. The estimated values of PGA for return periods of 476 years were grouped in 4 categories, the same ones used in the seismic hazard map for the New Seismic Code of Greece. Comparison results were quite interesting and very encouraging concerning the reliability of this probabilistic approach.

Description: We present new radar-based techniques for efficient identification of surface changes generated by lava and pyroclastic flows, and apply these to the 1996 eruption of Manam Volcano, Papua New Guinea. Polarimetric L- and P-band airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, along with a C-band DEM, were acquired over the volcano on 17 November 1996 during a major eruption sequence. The L-band data are analyzed for dominant scattering mechanisms on a per pixel basis using radar target decomposition techniques. A classification method is presented, and when applied to the L-band polarimetry, it readily distinguishes bare surfaces from forest cover over Manam volcano. In particular, the classification scheme identifies a post-1992 lava flow in NE Valley of Manam Island as a mainly bare surface and the underlying 1992 flow units as mainly vegetated surfaces. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Network reports allow us to speculate whether the bare surface is a flow dating from October or November in the early part of the late-1996 eruption sequence. This work shows that fully polarimetric SAR is sensitive to scattering mechanism changes caused by volcanic resurfacing processes such as lava and pyroclastic flows. By extension, this technique should also prove useful in mapping debris flows, ash deposits and volcanic landslides associated with major eruptions.

Description: We investigate the relevance of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits at the onset of intermittent chaos in the phase dynamics of nonlinear Alfvén waves by using the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) equation as a model for phase dynamics. We focus on the role of nonattracting chaotic solutions of the KS equation, known as chaotic saddles, in the transition from weak chaos to strong chaos via an interior crisis and show how two of these unstable chaotic saddles can interact to produce the plasma intermittency observed in the strongly chaotic regimes. The dynamical systems approach discussed in this work can lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the phenomena of intermittency in space plasmas.

Description: This work is focused on the application of neural network based models to the analysis of total ozone (TO) time series. Processes that affect total ozone are extremely non linear, especially at the considered European mid-latitudes. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are intrinsically non-linear systems, hence they are expected to cope with TO series better than classical statistics do. Moreover, neural networks do not assume the stationarity of the data series so they are also able to follow time-changing situations among the implicated variables. These two features turn NNs into a promising tool to catch the interactions between atmospheric variables, and therefore to extract as much information as possible from the available data in order to make, for example, time series reconstructions or future predictions. Models based on NNs have also proved to be very suitable for the treatment of missing values within the data series. In this paper we present several models based on neural networks to fill the missing periods of data within a total ozone time series, and models able to reconstruct the data series. The results released by the ANNs have been compared with those obtained by using classical statistics methods, and better accuracy has been achieved with the non linear ANNs techniques. Different network structures and training strategies have been tested depending on the specific task to be accomplished.

Description: The analysis of a data area or segment containing steep transitions between regions with different textures (for example a cloud and its background) leads to addressing the problem of discontinuities and their impact on texture analysis. In that purpose, an original one-dimensional analytical model of spectrum and roughness function has been worked out, with a discontinuity between two fractal regions, each one specified by its average µ, standard deviation σ, spectral index β and Hurst exponent H. This has the advantage of not needing the generation of a fractal structure with a particular algorithm or random functions and clearly puts into evidence the role played by the average in generating spectral poles and side lobes. After validation of the model calibration, a parametric study is carried out in order to understand the influence of this discontinuity on the estimation of the spectral index β and the Hurst parameter H. It shows that for a pure µ-gap, H is well estimated everywhere, though overestimated, and β is overestimated in the anti-correlation range and saturates in the correlation range. For a pure σ-gap the retrieval of H is excellent everywhere and the behaviour of β is better than for a µ-gap, leading to less overestimation in the anti-correlation range. For a pure β-gap, saturation degrades measurements in the case of raw data and the medium with smaller spectral index is predominant in the case of trend-corrected data. For a pure H-gap, there is also dominance of the medium with smaller fractal exponent.

Description: This paper presents a review of recent progress in nonlinear kinetic Alfvén wave (KAW hereafter). We start with the two-fluid theory of KAWs and show how the difference between the motions of electrons and ions in small-scale fields of KAWs modifies the Alfvén wave properties. Then, we focus on nonlinear solitary structures of KAWs. A general criterion of the existence for solitary KAW (SKAW hereafter) and its exact analytical solution in a low-β plasma (β

Description: In this paper, we employ a non-decimated wavelet decomposition to analyse long-term variations of the teleconnection pattern monthly indices (the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation) and the relationship of these variations with eddy kinetic energy contents (KE) in the atmosphere of mid-latitudes and tropics. Major advantage of using this tool is to isolate short- and long-term components of fluctuations. Such analysis allows revealing basic periodic behaviours for the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) indices such as the 4-8-year and the natural change of dominant phase. The main results can be posed as follows. First, if the phases of North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations vary synchronously with the 4-8-year period then the relationship between the variations of the NAO indices and the KE contents is the most appreciable. Second, if the NAO phase tends to abrupt changes then the impact of these variations on the eddy kinetic energy contents in both mid-latitudes and tropics is more significant than for the durational dominance of certain phase.

Description: The problem of the null-modes existence and some particularities of their interaction with nonlinear vortex-wave-like structures is discussed. We show that the null-modes are fundamental elements of nonlinear wave fields. The conditions under which null-modes can manifest themselves are elucidated. The Rossby-Hasegawa-Mima (RHM) model is used for the illustration of features of null-modes-waves interactions.

Description: Electron-acoustic solitary waves are studied in an unmagnetized plasma consisting of non-thermally distributed electrons, fluid cold electrons and ions. The Sagdeev pseudo-potential technique is used to carry out the analysis. The presence of non-thermal electrons modifies the parametric region where electron acoustic solitons can exist. For parameters representative of auroral zone field lines, the electron acoustic solitons do not exist when either α 〉 0.225 or Tc/Th 〉 0.142, where α is the fractional non-thermal electron density, and Tc (Th) represents the temperature of cold (hot) electrons. Further, for these parameters, the simple model predicts negatively charged potential structures. Inclusion of an electron beam in the model may provide the positive potential solitary structures.

Description: The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes and the damage potential. Even though the damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. This study presents a detailed recording of the damage potential in the study area and describes the development of the damage potential since 1950 in decades. In the community, the increase of the number of buildings and their values is above average of the region. 37% of the existing buildings are located in legally declared avalanche hazard zones. In these areas, the probability of presence of persons increased considerably due to tourism activities and shows substantial seasonal fluctuations. If the analysis of the damage potential and the hazard estimation are performed with the same degree of precision, risk analysis and risk management will be improved significantly.

Description: In recent years, risk assessment has become increasingly important for the protection of settlements against natural hazards because the public authorities have to economise their budgets and therefore to legitimate their investments. To quantify risk, information is needed on both, recurrence intervals of the potentially damaging natural processes and on the associated damage potential. In the past, high efforts were undertaken to assess the former, while the latter was almost ignored. The aim of this study was to determine the development of the avalanche risk in the inhabited areas of the municipality of Davos, canton of Grisons, Switzerland, for the period between 1950 and 2000. The extent of avalanche prone areas was quantified using the numerical avalanche model AVAL-1D and the current legal hazard maps. The damage potential was quantified by the number and reinstatement values of buildings and by the number of persons per building. It has been demonstrated that, contrary to the frequently expressed statement that the vulnerability of communities has increased, the risk for this settlement in fact decreased substantially. This can mainly be attributed to the realisation of mitigation measures, such as defence structures in avalanche starting zones. The only exception regarding the development of risk was in the category of residential buildings, were an increase in risk was already detectable at medium recurrence intervals. This is remarkable because methods of land use planning, such as hazard mapping, are intended to protect residential buildings from the impact of hazardous processes. However, general statements referring to a larger area (region, country) might be difficult to make, since small-scale disparities have a very important influence on the diversification of risk and risk management. Furthermore, it has to be emphasized that the results are highly dependent on the assumptions made in this study.

Description: We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.

Description: Since 1990, we have maintained a database of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy, known as the National Research Council's AVI (Damaged Urban Areas) archive. The database was originally designed to respond to a request of the Minister of Civil Protection, and was aimed at helping the regional assessment of landslide and flood risk in Italy. The database was compiled in 1991-1992 to cover the period 1917 to 1990, and then updated to cover systematically the period 1917 to 2000, and non-systematically the periods 1900 to 1916 and 2001 to 2002. The database currently contains information on more than 32000 landslide events occurred at more than 21000 sites, and on more than 29000 flood events occurred at more than 14000 sites. Independently from the AVI archive, we have obtained other databases containing information on damage caused by mass movements and inundations, daily discharge measurements and solid-transport measurements at selected gauging stations, bibliographical and reference information on landslides and inundations, and a catalogue of National legislation on hydrological and geological hazards and risk in Italy. The databases are part of an information system known as SICI (an Italian acronym for Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, Information System on Hydrological and Geomorphological Catastrophes), which is currently the largest single repository of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy. After an outline of the history and evolution of the AVI Project archive, we present and discuss: (a) the structure of the SICI information system, including the hardware and software solutions adopted to maintain, manage, update, use and disseminate the information stored in the various databases, (b) the type and amount of information stored in each database, including an estimate of their completeness, and (c) examples of recent applications of the information system, including a web-based GIS system to show the location of sites historically affected by landslides and floods, and an estimate of geo-hydrological (i.e. landslide and flood) risk in Italy based on the available historical information.

Description: Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, degassing phenomena and landslides, being the cause of thousands of deaths and severe damage and loss. To reduce the impact of future events it is necessary to improve the emergency response and reinforce land-use planning, and this has given rise to the development of AZORIS, a GIS database for risk analysis in the Azores. At present this computer-based system comprises nine main dynamic data sets where elemental, monitoring and historical data are grouped in layers of first and second order. The logical structure of the database was conceived in order to facilitate interactivity between data sets and to guarantee the evolution of the system, as determined by the input and the generation of new and more detailed information. Archive organization was designed taking into account regional and local aspects of geological hazard. In order to ensure consistency of the database and the quality of the data within it, an internal process of validation was included.

Description: Electric Earthquake Precursor (EEP) recognition is essentially a problem of weak signal detection. An EEP signal, according to the theory of propagating cracks, is usually a very weak electric potential anomaly appearing on the Earth's electric field prior to an earthquake, often unobservable within the electric background, which is significantly stronger and embedded in noise. Furthermore, EEP signals vary in terms of duration and size making reliable recognition even more difficult. An average model for EEP signals has been identified based on a time function describing the evolution of the number of propagating cracks. This paper describes the use of neuro-fuzzy networks (Neural Networks with intrinsic fuzzy logic abilities) for the reliable recognition of EEP signals within the electric field. Pattern recognition is performed by the neural network to identify the average EEP model from within the electric field. Use of the neuro-fuzzy model enables classification of signals that are not exactly the same, but do approximate the average EEP model, as EEPs. On the other hand, signals that look like EEPs but do not approximate enough the average model are suppressed, preventing false classification. The effectiveness of the proposed network is demonstrated using electrotelluric data recorded in NW Greece.

Description: Urban development is a process. In structuring and developing its phases different actors are implied, who act under different, sometimes opposite, dynamic conditions and within different reference systems. This paper aims to explore the contribution of participatism to disaster mitigation, when this concerns earthquake impact on urban settlements, through the support provided to multi-criteria decision in matters of retrofit. The research broadness in field of decision making on one side and the lack of a specific model for the retrofit of existing buildings on another side led to an extensive review of the state of the art in related models to address the issue. Core idea in the selection of existing models has been the preoccupation for collaborative issues, in other words, the consideration for the different actors implied in the planning process. The historic perspective on participative planning models is made from the view of two generations of citizen implication. The first approaches focus on the participation of the building owner/inhabitant in the planning process of building construction. As current strategies building rehabilitation and selection from alternative retrofit strategies are presented. New developments include innovative models using the internet or spatial databases. The investigated participation approaches show, that participation and communication as a more comprehensive term are an old topic in the field politics-democratisation-urbanism. In all cases it can be talked of "successful learning processes", of the improvement of the level of the professional debate. More than 30 years history of participation marked a transition in understanding the concept: from participation, based on a central decision process leading to a solution controlled and steered by the political-administrative system, to communication, characterised by simultaneous decision processes taking place outside politics and administration in co-operative procedures.

Description: Earthquake prediction is a main topic in Seismology. Here, the goal is to know the correlation between the seismicity at a certain place at a given time with the seismicity at the same place, but at a following interval of time. There are no ways for exact predictions, but one can wonder about the causality relations between the seismic characteristics at a given time interval and another in a region. In this paper, a new approach to this kind of studies is presented. Tools which include cellular automata theory and Shannon's entropy are used. First, the catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region into cells. The activity or inactivity of each cell at a certain time is described using an energy criterion; thus a pattern which evolves over time is given. The aim is to find the rules of the stochastic cellular automaton which best fits the evolution of the pattern. The neighborhood utilized is the cross template (CT). A grid search is made to choose the best model, being the mutual information between the different times the function to be maximized. This function depends on the size of the cells β on and the interval of time τ which is considered for studying the activity of a cell. With these β and τ, a set of probabilities which characterizes the evolution rules is calculated, giving a probabilistic approach to the spatiotemporal evolution of the region. The sample catalogue for the Iberian Peninsula covers since 1970 till 2001. The results point out that the seismic activity must be deduced not only from the past activity at the same region but also from its surrounding activity. The time and spatial highest interaction for the catalogue used are of around 3.3 years and 290x165 km2, respectively; if a cell is inactive, it will continue inactive with a high probability; an active cell has around the 60% probability of continuing active in the future. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map obtained marks the main seismic active areas (northwestern Africa) were the real seismicity has been occurred after the date of the data set studied. Also, the Hurst exponent has been studied. The value calculated is 0.48±0.02, which means that the process is inherently unpredictable. This result can be related to the incapacity of the cellular automaton obtained of predicting sudden changes.

Description: The establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation remains a powerful tool in the risk analysis of natural hazards. Indeed the IDF-curves allow for the estimation of the return period of an observed rainfall event or conversely of the rainfall amount corresponding to a given return period for different aggregation times. There is a high need for IDF-curves in the tropical region of Central Africa but unfortunately the adequate long-term data sets are frequently not available. The present paper assesses IDF-curves for precipitation for three stations in Central Africa. More physically based models for the IDF-curves are proposed. The methodology used here has been advanced by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) and an inter-station and inter-technique comparison is being carried out. The IDF-curves for tropical Central Africa are an interesting tool to be used in sewer system design to combat the frequently occurring inundations in semi-urbanized and urbanized areas of the Kinshasa megapolis.

Description: The results of recent observations of the non-thermal electromagnetic (EM) emission at wavelengths of 2.5cm, 13cm, and 21cm are summarized. After strong impacts of meteorites or spacecrafts (Lunar Prospector) with the Moon's surface, the radio emissions in various frequency ranges were recorded. The most distinctive phenomenon is the appearance of quasi-periodic oscillations with amplitudes of 3–10K during several hours. The mechanism concerning the EM emission from a propagating crack within a piezoactive dielectric medium is considered. The impact may cause the global acoustic oscillations of the Moon. These oscillations lead to the crackening of the Moon's surface. The propagation of a crack within a piezoactive medium is accompanied by the excitation of an alternative current source. It is revealed that the source of the EM emission is the effective transient magnetization that appears in the case of a moving crack in piezoelectrics. The moving crack creates additional non-stationary local mechanical stresses around the apex of the crack, which generate the non-stationary electromagnetic field. For the cracks with a length of 0.1–1µm, the maximum of the EM emission may be in the 1–10GHz range.

Description: A magnetotelluric monitoring station has been installed in the Val d'Agri area (southern Italy), to investigate the physics underlying the generation mechanisms of the electrokinetic effect, due to rapid pore pressure changes and fluid flows near the focal area of incoming earthquakes. It is well known that the magnetotelluric method reveals variations in electrical resistivity within the Earth at large depths, reaching within appropriate frequency bands the Earth's mantle. Depth sounding is performed by measuring the ratio between the mutually perpendicular horizontal electric and magnetic fields at the earth's surface, furnishing the apparent resistivity, which describes the electrical properties of subsoil as function of depth. The selected site of Val d'Agri has been struck by strong seismic events in past and recent years, this suggesting the investigation of possible changes in apparent resistivity correlated with the local tectonic activity. We analyzed the stability of the measurement of apparent resistivity and phase of the impedance tensor Z(ω) during time. Our findings suggest that the measure of apparent resistivity during night-time is more stable. Therefore, we identified the characteristic apparent resistivity curve of the subsoil of the Val d'Agri site, which could be considered as a reference.

Description: Maps of areas with different vulnerability degrees are an integral part of environmental protection and management policies. It is difficult to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas since the stage and type of karst structure development and its related underground discharge behaviour are not easy to determine. Therefore, some improvements, which take into account dolines, caves and superficial lineament arrangement, have been integrated into the SINTACS R5 method and applied to a karst area of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy). The proposed approach integrates the SINTACS model giving more weight to morphological and structural data; in particular the following parameters have been modified: depth to groundwater, effective infiltration action, unsaturated zone attenuation capacity and soil/overburden attenuation capacity. Effective hydrogeological and impacting situations are also arranged using superficial lineaments and karst density. In order to verify the reliability of the modified procedure, a comparison is made with the original SINTACS R5 index evaluated in the same area. The results of both SINTACS index maps are compared with karst and structural features identified in the area and with groundwater nitrate concentrations recorded in wells. The best fitting SINTACS map is then overlaid by the layout of potential pollution centres providing a complete map of the pollution risk in the area.

Description: Using a new 3-D physical modelling technique we investigated the initiation and evolution of large scale landslides in presence of pre-existing large scale fractures and taking into account the slope material weakening due to the alteration/weathering. The modelling technique is based on the specially developed properly scaled analogue materials, as well as on the original vertical accelerator device enabling increases in the "gravity acceleration" up to a factor 50. The weathering primarily affects the uppermost layers through the water circulation. We simulated the effect of this process by making models of two parts. The shallower one represents the zone subject to homogeneous weathering and is made of low strength material of compressive strength σl. The deeper (core) part of the model is stronger and simulates intact rocks. Deformation of such a model subjected to the gravity force occurred only in its upper (low strength) layer. In another set of experiments, low strength (σw) narrow planar zones sub-parallel to the slope surface (σw

Description: The spontaneous electrification of marble samples was studied while they were subjected to uniaxial stress. The Pressure Stimulated Current (PSC) technique was applied to measure the charge released from compressed Dionysos marble samples, while they were subjected to cyclic loading. The experimental results demonstrate that, in the linear elastic region of the sample, no PSC is recorded, while beyond the stress limit (s〉0.60), observable variations appear, which increase considerably in the vicinity of sample failure, reaching a maximum value just before the failure. The emitted current is reduced on each loading cycle and it has a reciprocal dependence to the normalized Young modulus. The MCD model, applied out of the vicinity of sample failure explains successfully the above findings. The existence of a "memory-like" behavior of the sample, could justify the weakness or absence of electrical earthquake precursors, during an aftershock sequence.

Description: Results of simultaneous LF subionospheric monitoring over two different propagation paths prior to the very strong Tokachi earthquake (near the east coast of Hokkaido Island, 25 September 2003) of magnitude 8.3 are presented firstly. Nighttime amplitude fluctuations of the Japanese Time Standard Transmitter (JG2AS, 40kHz) signal received at Moshiri (Japan, 142°E, 44°N) and at Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski (Russia, 158°E, 53°N) were analyzed. As a possible precursory signature we observed synchronous intensification of quasi periodical 16-day variations of the dispersion in the signals received at both observation stations before the earthquake. The strongest deviations observed as a rule were depletions of signal amplitude probably connected with increase of loss in the ionosphere by the enhancement of turbulence. This is due to dissipation of internal gravity waves (IGW) at the lower ionosphere heights. A scheme for seismo-IGW-planetary waves (PW) interconnection has been justified to explain the observed connection with strong earthquakes. It considers the seasonal variability in the signal.

Description: Thunderstorm tracks in the eastern Alps for the summers of 1993-1999 are investigated based on lightning data. The tracking method consists of three steps. Step one filters weak storms. Step two fixes the positions of the single cells, which are then connected. The wind at 700hPa, which approximates the steering level of the thunderstorms, is used to distinguish between six weather patterns. Maps including all discovered tracks are discussed for each flow type. While locations from which thunderstorms originate are almost similar, the track patterns are distinct for each flow type. Main initiation areas are mountain ranges of moderate altitude (≈2.5km MSL) from where most of the tracks lead into flat areas.

Description: One hundred and one landslides were documented across 370km2 following a rainstorm that swept the British Columbia coastline on 18 November 2001. Despite the regional nature of the storm, the landslides were spaced close together, even within the study area. Landslide clustering is attributed to high intensity storm cells too small to be recorded by the general hydrometric network. The evidence nicely corroborates previous historical studies that reached similar conclusions, but against which there was no modern analog analyzed for coastal British Columbia. Magnitude-cumulative frequency data plotted well on a power law curve for landslides greater than 10000m2, however, below that size several curves would fit. The rollover effect, a point where the data is no longer represented by the power law, therefore occurs at about 1.5 orders of magnitude higher than the smallest landslide. Additional work on Vancouver Island has provided evidence for rollovers at similar values. We propose that the rollover is a manifestation of the physical conditions of landslide occurrence and process uniformity. The data was fit to a double Pareto distribution and P-P plots were generated for several data sets to examine the fit of that model. The double Pareto model describes the bulk of the data well, however, less well at the tails. For small landslides (

Description: Starting from 1992 geochemical data are being collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the pH value and of the most common ions and gases in the groundwater in one deep well located in Petropavlovsk, the capital city of Kamchatka (Russia). On 1 January 1996 a strong eruption started from the Karymsky volcano, that is located about 100km far from the well, in the north-northeastern direction. At the same time, a large earthquake (M=6.9) occurred in the Karymsky area. On 5 December 1997 a very large earthquake (M=7.7) occurred offshore, at a distance of 350km from the well and towards the same direction. The analysis of the geochemical data shows clear variations in the raw temporal trends on both cases. For the first event, a clear premonitory phase appeared; for the second one, some pre-seismic variations could be revealed but permanent modifications of the chemistry of the water subsequent to the earthquake are very clear. In both cases the feature of the geochemical variations is consistent with an afflux of new water in the aquifer connected with the well and with an escape of the Carbon dioxide gas from the ground in different directions. A schematic model able to justify such a phenomenology and the connections of the geochemical variations with the previous tectonic activities is proposed.

Description: This article examines retrospective public-supplied precursor reports statistically, and confirms published hypotheses that some alleged precursors within 100km and within a day prior to the large 1995 Kobe and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, may be valid. The confirmations are mostly at the p

Description: The local "when" for earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic "quakes" and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately ±1 day and for the maximum ±2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002-2003 for the Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local "when, where" earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accurate monitoring of the electromagnetic field with special space and time scales under, on and over the Earth's surface. The periodically upgraded information from seismic hazard maps and other standard geodetic information, as well as other precursory information, is essential.

Description: The 2003 Gibbs thermodynamic potential function represents a very accurate, compact, consistent and comprehensive formulation of equilibrium properties of seawater. It is expressed in the International Temperature Scale ITS-90 and is fully consistent with the current scientific pure water standard, IAPWS-95. Source code examples in FORTRAN, C++ and Visual Basic are presented for the numerical implementation of the potential function and its partial derivatives, as well as for potential temperature. A collection of thermodynamic formulas and relations is given for possible applications in oceanography, from density and chemical potential over entropy and potential density to mixing heat and entropy production. For colligative properties like vapour pressure, freezing points, and for a Gibbs potential of sea ice, the equations relating the Gibbs function of seawater to those of vapour and ice are presented.

Description: We review the basic approximations underlying magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory, with special emphasis on the closure approximations, i.e. the approximations used in any fluid approach to close the hierarchy of moment equations. We then present the main closure models that have been constructed for collisionless plasmas in the large-scale regime, and we describe our own mixed MHD-kinetic model, which is designed to study low-frequency linear waves and instabilities in collisionless plasmas. We write down the full dispersion relation in a new, general form, which gathers all the specific features of our MHD-kinetic model into four polytropic indices, and which can be applied to standard adiabatic MHD and to double-adiabatic MHD through a simple change in the expressions of the polytropic indices. We study the mode solutions and the stability properties of the full dispersion relation in each of these three theories, first in the case of a uniform plasma, and then in the case of a stratified plasma. In both cases, we show how the results are affected by the collisionless nature of the plasma.

Description: We apply Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to seismic signals recorded at Stromboli volcano. Firstly, we show how ICA works considering synthetic signals, which are generated by dynamical systems. We prove that Strombolian signals, both tremor and explosions, in the high frequency band (〉0.5 Hz), are similar in time domain. This seems to give some insights to the organ pipe model generation for the source of these events. Moreover, we are able to recognize in the tremor signals a low frequency component (

Description: When studying transverse modes propagating parallel to a static magnetic field, an apparent contradiction arises between the weakly nonlinear results obtained from the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation, predicting envelope solitons (where the amplitude is stationary in the wave frame, but the phase is not), and recent results for whistler oscillitons, indicating that really stationary structures of large amplitude are possible. Revisiting this problem in the fluid dynamic approach, care has been taken not to introduce charge neutrality from the outset, because this not only neglects electric stresses compared to magnetic stresses, which is reasonable, but could also imply from Poisson's equation a vanishing of the wave electric field. Nevertheless, the fixed points of the remaining equations are the same, whether charge neutrality is assumed from the outset or not, so that the solitary wave solutions at not too large amplitudes will be very similar. This is borne out by numerical simulations of the solutions under the two hypotheses, showing that the lack of correspondence with the DNLS envelope solitons indicates the limitations of the reductive perturbation approach, and is not a consequence of assuming charge neutrality.

Description: Recently, we suggested that the source of ion heating in solar coronal holes is small-scale reconnection events (microflares) at the coronal base. The microflares launch intermittent heat flux up into the corona exciting ion cyclotron waves through a plasma microinstability. The ions are heated by these waves during the microflare bursts and then evolve with no energy input between the bursts. The overall coronal heating by this mechanism is a summed effect of all microflare bursts during the expansion time of the solar wind and adiabatic cooling between the microflares. The intermittent heat flux produced by the microflares was modeled as electron beams with constant speed and temperature for simplicity. In this paper, we consider a more sophisticated model of the heat flux taking into account the action of the mirror force and the charge separation electric field on the beam particles. We show that the radial evolution of the heat flux is determined mainly by the beam expansion along the magnetic field roughly at the root mean square velocity of the beam particles, while the variation of the beam bulk speed and thermal energy is less important.

Description: We examine the event statistics obtained from two differing simplified models for earthquake faults. The first model is a reproduction of the Block-Slider model of Carlson et al. (1991), a model often employed in seismicity studies. The second model is an elastodynamic fault model based upon the Lattice Solid Model (LSM) of Mora and Place (1994). We performed simulations in which the fault length was varied in each model and generated synthetic catalogs of event sizes and times. From these catalogs, we constructed interval event size distributions and inter-event time distributions. The larger, localised events in the Block-Slider model displayed the same scaling behaviour as events in the LSM however the distribution of inter-event times was markedly different. The analysis of both event size and inter-event time statistics is an effective method for comparative studies of differing simplified models for earthquake faults.

Description: Short wavelength ion sound waves (2-4kHz) are detected in association with the Langmuir waves (~15-30kHz) in the source regions of several local type III radio bursts. They are most probably not due to any resonant wave-wave interactions such as the electrostatic decay instability because their wavelengths are much shorter than those of Langmuir waves. The Langmuir waves occur as coherent field structures with peak intensities exceeding the Langmuir collapse thresholds. Their scale sizes are of the order of the wavelength of an ion sound wave. These Langmuir wave field characteristics indicate that the observed short wavelength ion sound waves are most probably generated during the thermalization of the burnt-out cavitons left behind by the Langmuir collapse. Moreover, the peak intensities of the observed short wavelength ion sound waves are comparable to the expected intensities of those ion sound waves radiated by the burnt-out cavitons. However, the speeds of the electron beams derived from the frequency drift of type III radio bursts are too slow to satisfy the needed adiabatic ion approximation. Therefore, some non-linear process such as the induced scattering on thermal ions most probably pumps the beam excited Langmuir waves towards the lower wavenumbers, where the adiabatic ion approximation is justified.

Description: Linear methods of dimensionality reduction are useful tools for handling and interpreting high dimensional data. However, the cumulative variance explained by each of the subspaces in which the data space is decomposed may show a slow convergence that makes the selection of a proper minimum number of subspaces for successfully representing the variability of the process ambiguous. The use of nonlinear methods can improve the embedding of multivariate data into lower dimensional manifolds. In this article, a nonlinear method for dimensionality reduction, Isomap, is applied to the sea surface temperature and thermocline data in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the annual cycle phenomena interact. Isomap gives a more accurate description of the manifold dimensionality of the physical system. The knowledge of the minimum number of dimensions is expected to improve the development of low dimensional models for understanding and predicting ENSO.

Description: The relative impact of model quality and ensemble deficiencies, on the performance of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts, is investigated from a set of idealized experiments. Data are generated according to a statistical model, the validation of which is achieved by comparing generated data to ECMWF ensemble forecasts and analyses. The performance of probabilistic forecasts is evaluated through the reliability and resolution terms of the Brier score. Results are as follows. (i) Resolution appears essentially attributable to the average level of forecast skill. (ii) The lack of reliability comes primarily from forecast bias, and to a lower extent from the ensemble being systematically under-dispersive (or over-dispersive). (iii) Forecast skill contributes very little to reliability in the absence of forecast bias, and this impact is entirely due to the finiteness of the ensemble population. (iv) In the presence of forecast bias, reducing forecast skill leads to improve the reliability. This unexpected feature comes from the fact that lower forecast skill leads to a larger ensemble spread, that compensates for the strong proportion of outliers consequent to forecast bias. (v) The lack of ensemble skill, i.e. non systematic errors affecting both ensemble mean and ensemble spread, contributes little, but significantly, to the lack of reliability and resolution.

Description: In fluviokarst landscapes flow may be partitioned into its surface and subsurface components as well as into diffuse and concentrated flow. The competition among these is hypothesized to be responsible for the divergence of the landscape in a fluviokarst region of central Kentucky into depression-rich, unchannelled karst-rich and channel-poor (KRCP) and strongly fluvially dissected channel-rich karst-poor (CRKP) zones. The interrelationships between diffuse surface runoff, channelized surface flow, diffuse recharge, and point recharge are dynamically unstable and chaotic, implying that small changes in the partitioning are likely to have disproportionately large and long-lived impacts, reflected in geomorphology. In the Kentucky River gorge, rapid Quaternary incision has resulted in local slope changes which should induce instability in the flow partitioning system. A GIS-based landscape classification scheme showed that there is a relationship between slope gradients and the degree of karstification or fluvial dissection. Geomorphic interpretation of landforms in the river gorge area indicates that CRKP and KRCP zones are growing at the expense of other landscape classes. This results in an increase in Kolmogorov entropy, a characteristic of a dynamically, unstable, chaotic system. Results support the hypothesis that divergent landscape evolution is linked to the complex nonlinear dynamics of low partitioning.

Description: We present new diagnostics of the solar flare reconnection, mainly based on the plasma radio emission. We propose that the high-frequency (600-2000 MHz) slowly drifting pulsating structures map the flare magnetic field reconnection. These structures correspond to the radio emission from plasmoids which are formed in the extended current sheet due to tearing and coalescence processes. An increase of the frequency drift of the drifting structures is interpreted as an increase of the reconnection rate. Using this model, time scales of slowly drifting pulsating structure observed during the 12 April 2001 flare by the Trieste radiopolarimeter with high time resolution (1 ms) are interpreted as a radio manifestation of electron beams accelerated in the multi-scale reconnection process. For short periods Fourier spectra of the observed structure have a power-law form with power-law indices in the 1.3-1.6 range. For comparison the 2-D MHD numerical modeling of the multi-scale reconnection is made and it is shown that Fourier spectrum of the reconnection dissipation power has also a power-law form, but with power-law index 2. Furthermore, we compute a time evolution of plasma parameters (density, magnetic field etc) in the 2-D MHD model of the reconnection. Then assuming a plasma radio emission from locations, where the "double-resonance" instability generates the upper-hybrid waves due to unstable distribution function of suprathermal electrons, we model radio spectra. Effects of the MHD turbulence are included. The resulting spectra are compared with those observed. It is found, that depending on model parameters the lace bursts and the decimetric spikes can be reproduced. Thus, it is shown that the model can be used for diagnostics of the flare reconnection process. We also point out possible radio signatures of reconnection outflow termination shocks. They are detected as type II-like herringbone structures in the 200-700 MHz frequency range. Finally, we mention Hα spectra of the 18 September 1995 eruptive prominence which indicate the bi-directional plasma flow as expected in the reconnection process.

Description: The implications of state dependent, finite time error growth has been studied using singular values in a chaotic 2-dimensional map. Earlier studies have demonstrated the superiority of the singular values over the Lyapunov number in representing error growth over finite time scales, since they take state dependency into account. In this work, linearized error growth as given by singular values under operational constraints like non-isotropic initial uncertainty and model error is considered. It is demonstrated that the relevant singular values in the case of non-isotropic initial uncertainty are quite different from the isotropic case. The effect of model inadequacy on error growth is delineated.

Description: By adopting an essentially fluid dynamic viewpoint we derive the wave structure equation for stationary, fully nonlinear, electrostatic, ion-cyclotron waves. The existence of two fundamental constants of the motion, namely, conservation of momentum flux parallel to the ambient magnetic field, and energy flux parallel to the direction of wave propagation, enables the wave structure equation to be reduced to a first order differential equation, which has solutions that are physically transparent. The analysis shows that sufficiently oblique waves, propagating at sub-ion acoustic speeds, form soliton pulse-like solutions whose amplitudes are greatest for perpendicular propagation. Waves that propagate supersonically have periodic cnoidal waveforms, which are asymmetric about the compressive and rarefactive phases of the wave. It is also shown that there exist critical driver fields for which the end point of the compressive phase goes sonic (in the wave frame), with the consequence that the wave form develops a cusp. It is possible that this trans-sonic, choked flow feature provides a mechanism for the "spiky" waveforms observed in auroral electric field measurements.

Description: During 2002, the Voyager 1 spacecraft was in the heliosphere between 83.4 and 85.9AU (1AU is the mean distance from the Sun to Earth) at 34° N heliographic latitude. The magnetic field strength profile observed in this region had a multifractal structure in the range of scales from 2 to 16 days. The multifractal spectrum observed near 85AU is similar to that observed near 40AU, indicating relatively little evolution of the multifractal structure of the magnetic field with increasing distance in the distant heliosphere in the epoch near solar maximum.

Description: We test a simple technique based on breeding to separate fast and slow unstable modes in coupled systems with different time scales of evolution and variable amplitudes. The technique takes advantage of the earlier saturation of error growth rate of the fastest mode and of the lower value of the saturation amplitude of perturbation of either the fast or the slow modes. These properties of the coupled system allow a physically-based selection of the rescaling time interval and the amplitude of initial perturbations in the "breeding" of unstable modes (Toth and Kalnay, 1993, 1996, 1997; Aurell et al., 1997; Boffetta et al., 1998) to isolate the desired mode. We perform tests in coupled models composed of fast and slow versions of the Lorenz (1963) model with different strengths of coupling. As examples we present first a coupled system which we denote "weather with convection", with a slow, large amplitude model coupled with a fast, small amplitude model, second an "ENSO" system with a "tropical atmosphere" strongly coupled with a "tropical ocean", and finally a triply coupled system denoted "tropical-extratropical" in which a fast model (representing the "extratropical atmosphere") is loosely coupled to the "ENSO" system. We find that it is always possible to isolate the fast modes by taking the limit of small amplitudes and short rescaling intervals, in which case, as expected, the results are the same as the local Lyapunov growth obtained with the linear tangent model. In contrast, slow modes cannot be isolated with either Lyapunov or Singular vectors, since the linear tangent and adjoint models are dominated by the fast modes. Breeding is successful in isolating slow modes if rescaling intervals and amplitudes are chosen from physically appropriate scales.

Description: Small amplitude electron - acoustic solitons are studied in a magnetized plasma consisting of two types of electrons, namely cold electron beam and background plasma electrons and two temperature ion plasma. The analysis predicts rarefactive solitons. The model may provide a possible explanation for the perpendicular polarization of the low-frequency component of the broadband electrostatic noise observed in the Earth's magnetotail.

Description: Recent research using high-resolution magnetic field data to examine the interior structures of MHD shocks in interplanetary space and in the magnetotail led to a surprising discovery that a slow-mode shock is often followed by an adjoining rotational discontinuity layer on the postshock side. The thickness of each layer is of the order of a few ion inertial lengths. Such a compound structure is known as a double discontinuity. When the magnetic field rotates by several degrees per ion inertial length inside a thin layer, the Hall current term becomes important in the generalized Ohm's law. Steady state solutions based on the Hall-MHD theory have been obtained to show the merging of a rotational layer and a slow shock layer to form a compound structure like the observed double discontinuities.

Description: We report on the in situ identification of a narrow electrostatic acceleration layer (electrostatic shock) containing intense plasma turbulence in the upward current region, and its effect on auroral particles. Wave turbulence recorded in the center of the layer differs in character from that recorded above and beneath. It is concluded that the shock is sustained by different nonlinear waves which, at each level, act on the particles in such a way to produce a net upward directed electric field. The main power is in the ion acoustic range. We point out that anomalous resistivities are incapable of locally generating the observed parallel potential drop.

Description: Using a fully 3-D particle in-cell simulation, we studied the electrodynamics of a thin current sheet (CS). Starting with a uniform plasma and anti-parallel magnetic field, Harris equilibrium is achieved during the early stage of the simulation. In the processes of reaching the equilibrium, both electrons and ions in the newly formed CS are energized and develop pitch-angle anisotropies. We find two distinct stages of primarily electrostatic instabilities; in the first stage the relative drift between electrons and ions drives the instability in the central regions of the CS. The electrostatic fluctuations scatter electrons causing current disruption in the central region. The associated reduction in the average drift velocity of the current-carrying electrons generates sheared flow. The second stage of the instability begins when the drift velocity develops a minimum in the central plane. Then the shear and the growing electrostatic fluctuations under the condition of the maintained anti-parallel driving magnetic field configuration feed each other making the instability explosive. The growing fluctuations create plasma clumps as the electrons and ions are progressively trapped in the large-amplitude waves. The density clumping also generates clumps in the current. The non-uniform current distribution causes magnetic reconnection, accompanied by heating of electrons and ion at a fast rate and nearly complete bifurcation of the current sheet. Anomalous resistivity during different stages of the evolution of the CS is calculated and compared against theory.

Description: It has recently reported that electromagnetic flashes of low-energy -rays emitted during multi-fracturing on a neutron star, and electromagnetic pulses emitted in the laboratory by a disordered material subjected to an increasing external load, share distinctive statistical properties with earthquakes, such as power-law energy distributions (Cheng et al., 1996; Kossobokov et al., 2000; Rabinovitch et al., 2001; Sornette and Helmstetter, 2002). The neutron starquakes may release strain energies up to erg, while, the fractures in laboratory samples release strain energies approximately a fraction of an erg. An earthquake fault region can build up strain energy up to approximately erg for the strongest earthquakes. Clear sequences of kilohertz-megahertz electromagnetic avalanches have been detected from a few days up to a few hours prior to recent destructive earthquakes in Greece. A question that arises effortlessly is if the pre-seismic electromagnetic fluctuations also share the same statistical properties. Our study justifies a positive answer. Our analysis also reveals "symptoms" of a transition to the main rupture common with earthquake sequences and acoustic emission pulses observed during laboratory experiments (Maes et al., 1998).

Description: In this paper, we describe a unified algorithm for locating and computing hyperbolic trajectories, and then computing their stable and unstable manifolds, for finite time velocity fields in the form of a data set defined on a space-time grid. The algorithm is applied to a turbulent regime of a quasigeostrophic wind-driven double gyre in a rectangular domain.

Description: Catastrophic events like strong earthquakes can cause big losses in life and economic values. An increase in the efficiency of reconnaissance techniques could help to reduce the losses in life as many victims die after and not during the event. A basic prerequisite to improve the rescue teams' work is an improved planning of the measures. This can only be done on the basis of reliable and detailed information about the actual situation in the affected regions. Therefore, a bundle of projects at Karlsruhe university aim at the development of a tool for fast information retrieval after strong earthquakes. The focus is on urban areas as the most losses occur there. In this paper the approach for a damage analysis of buildings will be presented. It consists of an automatic methodology to model buildings in three dimensions, a comparison of pre- and post-event models to detect changes and a subsequent classification of the changes into damage types. The process is based on information extraction from airborne laserscanning data, i.e. digital surface models (DSM) acquired through scanning of an area with pulsed laser light. To date, there are no laserscanning derived DSMs available to the authors that were taken of areas that suffered damages from earthquakes. Therefore, it was necessary to simulate such data for the development of the damage detection methodology. In this paper two different methodologies used for simulating the data will be presented. The first method is to create CAD models of undamaged buildings based on their construction plans and alter them artificially in such a way as if they had suffered serious damage. Then, a laserscanning data set is simulated based on these models which can be compared with real laserscanning data acquired of the buildings (in intact state). The other approach is to use measurements of actual damaged buildings and simulate their intact state. It is possible to model the geometrical structure of these damaged buildings based on digital photography taken after the event by evaluating the images with photogrammetrical methods. The intact state of the buildings is simulated based on on-site investigations, and finally laserscanning data are simulated for both states.

Description: The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national weather services. COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to 150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation structure very similar to the observed one.

Description: Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the "German Research Network of Natural Disasters" (DFNK) the working group "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability) and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system). The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results obtained with aleatory uncertainty alone. The model was applied to reaches of the river Rhine downstream of Cologne.

Description: Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such analyses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing factors. Although the flood damage of a building is influenced by many factors, usually only inundation depth and building use are considered as damage-causing factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 damage records is analysed. Each record represents the direct monetary damage to an inundated building. The data set covers nine flood events in Germany from 1978 to 1994. It is shown that the damage data follow a Lognormal distribution with a large variability, even when stratified according to the building use and to water depth categories. Absolute depth-damage functions which relate the total damage to the water depth are not very helpful in explaining the variability of the damage data, because damage is determined by various parameters besides the water depth. Because of this limitation it has to be expected that flood damage assessments are associated with large uncertainties. It is shown that the uncertainty of damage estimates depends on the number of flooded buildings and on the distribution of building use within the flooded area. The results are exemplified by a damage assessment for a rural area in southwest Germany, for which damage estimates and uncertainty bounds are quantified for a 100-year flood event. The estimates are compared to reported flood damages of a severe flood in 1993. Given the enormous uncertainty of flood damage estimates the refinement of flood damage data collection and modelling are major issues for further empirical and methodological improvements.

Description: The need for monitoring slope movements increases with the increasing need for new areas to inhabit and new land management requirements. Rock-slope monitoring implies the use of a database, but also the use of other tools to facilitate the analysis of movements. The experience and the philosophy of monitoring the top of the Randa rockfall scar which is sliding down into the valley near Randa village in Switzerland are presented. The database includes data correction tools, display facilities and information about benchmarks. Tools for analysing the movement acceleration and spatial changes and forecasting movement are also presented. Using the database and its tools it was possible to discriminate errors from critical slope movement. This demonstrates the efficiency of these tools in monitoring the Randa scar.

Description: We present a suite of extensions for ARCVIEW GIS™ (ESRI) that allows to map the spatial distribution of first-order mechanical slope-properties in hard rock terrain, e.g. for large slope areas like water reservoir slopes. Besides digital elevation data, this expert-system includes regional continuous grid-based data on geological structures that might act as potential sliding or cutoff planes for rockslides. The system allows rapid automated mapping of geometrical and kinematical slope properties in hard rock, providing the basis for spatially distributed deterministic sliding-susceptibility evaluations on a pixel base. Changing hydrostatic slope conditions and rock mechanical parameters can be implemented and used for simple predictive static stability calculations. Application is demonstrated for a study area in the Harz Mts., Germany.

Description: Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative landslide risk analysis the associated uncertainties are estimated qualitatively. In the study area the highest risks throughout all of the analyses (individual risk to life and object risk to life) are caused by debris flows, followed by rock falls, showing that risk heavily varies depending on the process considered. The resultant maps show areas, in which the individual risk to life exceeds the acceptable risk (defined in the aforementioned regulation), so that for these locations risk reduction measures should be developed and implemented. It can be concluded that the newly developed method works satisfactory and is applicable to further catchments in Iceland, and potentially to further countries with different environmental settings.

Description: A general methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of landslide hazard is applied, taking in account both the landslide susceptibility and the instability triggering factors, mainly rainfall. The method is applied in the Fanhões-Trancão test site (north of Lisbon, Portugal) where 100 shallow translational slides were mapped and integrated into a GIS database. For the landslide susceptibility assessment it is assumed that future landslides can be predicted by statistical relationships between past landslides and the spatial data set of the predisposing factors (slope angle, slope aspect, transversal slope profile, lithology, superficial deposits, geomorphology, and land use). Susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Bayesian model) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. The landslide susceptibility map is prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. In order to validate the results of the susceptibility ana- lysis, the landslide data set is divided in two parts, using a temporal criterion. The first subset is used for obtaining a prediction image and the second subset is compared with the prediction results for validation. The obtained prediction-rate curve is used for the quantitative interpretation of the initial susceptibility map. Landslides in the study area are triggered by rainfall. The integration of triggering information in hazard assessment includes (i) the definition of thresholds of rainfall (quantity-duration) responsible for past landslide events; (ii) the calculation of the relevant return periods; (iii) the assumption that the same rainfall patterns (quantity/duration) which produced slope instability in the past will produce the same effects in the future (i.e. same types of landslides and same total affected area). The landslide hazard is present as the probability of each pixel to be affected by a slope movement, and results from the coupling between the susceptibility map, the prediction-rate curve, and the return periods of critical rainfall events, on a scenario basis. Using this methodology, different hazard scenarios were assessed, corresponding to different rain paths with different return periods.

Description: Droughts are related with prolonged periods when moisture is significantly below normal values. Drought indices attempt to scale the main drought features to facilitate comparisons. Numerous indices are found in the literature based on different drought features. Many of them were created for particular places and specific objectives, and therefore not suitable to generalize the results. However, there have been attempts to develop a general index, which would provide full characterization of drought events. Two of the most well known are the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Each one has particular advantages and disadvantages. Still neither of them or any other includes a full representation of droughts in a single value index, being useful for all general application. The fact that droughts have a random nature prescribes the statistical theory for the foundation of a complete and generic index, which would meet this goal. In this work, a procedure that allows a complete statistical characterization of drought events is presented. Droughts are characterized, from a statistical point of view, based both on the deviation from a normal regime and persistence. The events are represented as multivariate ones, whose dimensionality depends on the duration. Equal duration events are discriminated through their deviations from normality. The mean frequency of recurrence (MFR) is theoretically derived for such multivariate events, and it is used to scale such deviations. Therefore, events with different dimensionalities can be compared on a common dimension of interest, the MFR. This may be used as a drought index for drought characterization, both for analyzing historical events and monitoring current conditions. It may also be applied to analyze precipitation, streamflows and other hydroclimatic records. Its statistical nature and its general conception support its universality. Results may be applied not only to drought analysis, but also to analyze other random natural hazards. Applications of the procedure for drought analysis in Texas (USA) and in Gibraltar (Iberian Peninsula) are made and compared with PDSI and SPI results. The MFR applied over drought analysis allows the representation of the main drought characteristics in a single value, based on the statistical feature of the phenomenon, and scaled on the mean frequency of recurrence.

Description: The linkages between the space-time variability of observed clouds, rainfall, large-circulation patterns and topography in northern India and the Himalayas were investigated using remote sensing data. The research purpose was to test the hypothesis that cloudiness patterns are dynamic tracers of rainstorms, and therefore their temporal and spatial evolution can be used as a proxy of the spatial and temporal organization of precipitation and precipitation processes in the Himalayan range during the monsoon. The results suggest that the space-time distribution of precipitation, the spatial variability of the diurnal cycle of convective activity, and the terrain (landform and altitudinal gradients) are intertwined at spatial scales ranging from the order of a few kms (1–5km) up to the continental-scale. Furthermore, this relationship is equally strong in the time domain with respect to the onset and intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon. Infrared and microwave imagery of cloud fields were analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of mesoscale convective weather systems and short-lived convection in Northern India, the Himalayan range, and in the Tibetan Plateau during three monsoon seasons (1999, 2000 and 2001). The life cycle of convective systems suggests landform and orographic controls consistent with a convergence zone constrained to the valley of the Ganges and the Himalayan range, bounded in the west by the Aravalli range and the Garhwal mountains and in the East by the Khasi Hills and the Bay of Bengal, which we call the Northern India Convergence Zone (NICZ). The NICZ exhibits strong night-time activity along the south-facing slopes of the Himalayan range, which is characterized by the development of short-lived convection (1–3h) aligned with protruding ridges between 1:00 and 3:00 AM. The intra-annual and inter-annual variability of convective activity in the NICZ were assessed with respect to large-scale synoptic conditions, monsoon activity in the Bay of Bengal, and the modulating role of orography. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and canonical correlation (CC) analysis suggest that joint modes of variability of monsoon weather and topography, which we call orographic land-atmosphere interactions, modulate the space-time variability of cloudiness in the region. Finally, scaling analysis of cloudiness suggests three different scaling regimes of orographic land-atmosphere interactions: 1) a synoptic-scale regime (≥70-80km); 2) an orographic meso–β regime (30–70km) associated with the succession of wide valleys and bulky terrain features; and 3) an orographic meso–α regime (≤30km) associated with the complex succession of protruding south-facing ridges and narrow valleys that characterize the Himalayan foothills between altitudes of 3000 and 5000m elevations.

Description: We examined the groundwater Argon content data sampled from 1988 to 2001 at two wells in Kamchatka (Russia) and anomalous increases appeared clearly during June-July 1996. On 21 June, a shallow (1km) earthquake with M=7.1 occurred at a distance less than 250km from the wells and so the previous increases could be related to this earthquake and, in particular, could be considered premonitory anomalies. In order to support this raw interpretation, we analysed the data collected in details. At first we smoothed out the high frequency fluctuations arising from the errors in a single measurement. Next we considered the known external effects on the water of a well that are the slow tectonic re-adjustment processes, the meteorology and the gravity tides and we separated these effects applying band-pass filters to the Argon content raw trends. Then we identified the largest fluctuations in these trends applying the 3 σ criterion and we found three anomalies in a case and two anomalies in other case. Comparing the time occurrence of the anomalies at the two wells we found out that a coincidence exists only in the case of the premonitory anomalies we are studying. The simultaneous appearance of well definite anomalies in the residual trends of the same parameter at two different sites supports their meaning and the possibility that they are related to some large scale effect, as the occurrence of a strong earthquake. But, other earthquakes similar to the June 1996 event took place during the Argon content measurements time and no anomaly appeared in this content. In the past, some of the authors of this paper studied the Helium content data collected in three natural springs of the Caucasus during seven years. A very similar result, that is the simultaneous appearance of clear premonitory anomalies only on the occasion of a strong (M=7.0) but shallow (2–4km) earthquake, was obtained. The correspondence with the case of the Caucasus validates the interpretation of the Kamchatkian anomalies as precursors.

Description: Based on the assumption that major class of rock instabilities are created by discontinuities, a method is proposed to estimate the fracture density by means of a digital elevation model (DEM). By using the mean orientation, the mean spacing and the mean trace length of discontinuity sets potentially involved in slope instabilities and a DEM, it is possible to calculate the mean number of discontinuities of a given set per cell of the DEM. This would allow for an estimation of the probability of the presence of at least one discontinuity in a given area or simply in a topographic cell of the DEM. This analysis highlights sites potentially affected by rockslides within a region. Depending on the available data, the mean number can be calculated either by area, or along a line parallel to the mean apparent spacing. The effective use of the probability of occurrence is dependent on the size of the discontinuities because short and closely spaced discontinuities will have a 100% probability of occurrence in each favorable location. The a posteriori prediction of a recent rockslide is discussed as an example.

Description: A technique of direction finding is proposed, which can be applied to the magnetic-dipole type source located in the conductive ground. To distinguish a weak ULF source signal from the natural noise a network of multicomponent magnetometers is supposed to be used. The data obtained by the ground-based stations is processed in such a way that a set of partial derivatives of the magnetic perturbations due to the source are found. Comparing these derivatives with theoretical formulae makes it possible, in principle, to find the ULF source parameters such as the distance and amplitude. Averaging the data and a special procedure are proposed in order to exclude random fluctuations in the magnetic moment orientation and to avoid hydrogeological and other local factors.

Description: The present study describes entrainment characteristics of bed material into debris flow, based on flume tests, numerical and dimensional analyses. Flume tests are conducted to investigate influences of bed sediment size on erosion rate by supplying debris flows having unsaturated sediment concentration over erodible beds. Experimental results show that the erosion rate decreases monotonically with increase of sediment size, although erosion rate changes with sediment concentration of debris flow body. In order to evaluate critical condition of bed sediment entrainment, a length scale which measures an effective bed shear stress is introduced. The effective bed shear stress is defined as total shear stress minus yield stress on the bed surface. The results show that critical entrainment conditions can be evaluated well in terms of Shields curve using the effective bed shear stress instead of a usual bed shear stress.

Description: Sinkhole development occurs in many areas of the world where soluble rocks crop out. Sinkholes are generally the surface expression of the presence of caves and other groundwater flow conduits in carbonate rocks, which are solutionally enlarged secondary permeability features. Their formation may be either natural or caused by man's activities. In both cases, heavy consequences have to be registered on the anthropogenic environment and related infrastructures. Knowledge of the mechanism of formation of this subtle geohazard is therefore necessary to planners and decision makers for performing the most appropriate and suitable programs of land use and development. The Apulia region of southern Italy is characterized for most of its extension by carbonate rocks, which makes it one of the most remarkable example of karst in the Mediterranean Basin. Based on analysis of literature and in situ surveys, including caving explorations, we have identified in Apulia three main types of possible mechanisms for sinkhole formation: 1) collapse of a chamber in a natural cave or in man-made cavities; 2) slow and gradual enlargement of doline through dissolution; 3) settlement and internal erosion of filling deposits of pre-existing dolines. Since sinkhole formation very often affects directly the human settlements in Apulia, and have recently produced severe damage, some considerations are eventually presented as regards the interrelationships between sinkholes and the anthropogenic environment.

Description: The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Thessaly is the most intensely cultivated and productive agricultural plain region in Greece. Thessaly's total area is about 13700 km2 and it is surrounded by mountains and traversed by Pinios River. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined. Thessaly was divided into 212 grid-cells of 8 x 8 km and monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–1993 from 50 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinates and elevation data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded SPI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed and then, Drought Severity – Areal extent – Frequency (SAF) annual and monthly curves were developed. The analysis indicated that moderate and severe droughts are common in Thessaly region. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed.

Description: Geoelectrical fluctuations are the end product of several geophysical phenomena. In particular geoelectrical signals measured in seismically active areas can be attributed to stress and strain changes, associated with earthquakes. The complexity of this problem has suggested the development of advanced statistical methods to investigate the heterogeneous nature of these fluctuations. In this paper we analysed the time dynamics of short-term variability of geoelectrical field measured at Giuliano station, located in Basilicata Region, one of the most seismically active areas of southern Italy. We applied the principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis has shown earthquake precursory patterns in the daily variation of the principal components, revealing that the PCA approach is promising for monitoring seismic areas.

Description: Results of ULF geomagnetic measurements at station Teoloyucan (Central Mexico, 99.11'35.735''W, 19.44'45.100''N, 2280m height) in relation to seismic activity in the period 1998-2001 and their analysis are presented. Variations of spectral densities for horizontal and vertical components, polarization densities and spectrograms of magnetic field, their derivatives are analyzed as a part of traditional analysis in this study. Values of spectral density were calculated for 6 fixed frequencies f=1, 3, 10, 30, 100 and 300mHz. Fractal characteristics of spectra were analyzed in the conception of SOC (Self-Organized Criticality). 2 nighttime intervals, 0-3 and 3-6h by local time have been used to decrease the noise interference in row data. In order to exclude the intervals with a high geomagnetic activity from analysis we referred to Ap indices, calculated for corresponding time intervals. The contribution of seismic events to geomagnetic emission was estimated by seismic index ks=100.75Ms/10D, where Ms is the amplitude of the earthquake and D is the distance from its epicenter to the station.

Description: In this work we present a spectral and multifractal study of the electric self-potential fluctuations registered in an electroseismic station located at 100km from the epicenter of an earthquake (EQ) with Mw=6.5 in the Pacific coast of Mexico. Our study suggests that in general the time series analyzed displays a persistent behavior. Our results show an anticorrelation between the spectral exponent β and the width of the multifractal spectrum Δα, when they are calculated during a time interval of five months (four months before the EQ and one month after the EQ). In addition, we also calculate the time evolution of the correlation coefficient finding that it has a very similar behavior that the time evolution of Δα.

Description: At the beginning of 2002 an OmniPAL receiver was put into operation at the Department of Physics of Bari University (Southern Italy). The electric field strength of five VLF-LF signals transmitted from United Kingdom (f=16kHz), France (f=20.9kHz), Germany (f=23.4kHz), Iceland (f=37.5kHz) and Italy (f=54kHz) has been monitoring with a 5s sampling frequency. In a first step we reduced the amount of the data taking one datum each 10min (mean of the ±5min raw data) and then we smoothed these data by a running adjacent averaging over 7 days. Analysing the trends we obtained, we revealed at first in the signal from the Italian transmitter two clear intensity decreases in April 2002 and in August-September 2002. At these times we observed earthquakes with M=4.3 and M=5.6 respectively near the transmitter-receiver path and a precursory effect in the previous decreases appeared. Then, we noted that all of the five radio trends in the time interval March 2002-February 2003 are more disturbed than in other periods; in particular an evident simultaneous decrease appears in January-February 2003. We propose that these disturbances are related to general excitation of the margin between the African and European plates. In a second step we examined the terminator time (evening) changes for the Italian transmitter in July-September 2002, and we found significant deviations from the mean value at the end of August, which is supportive for some precursory ionospheric signature of earthquakes.

Description: Recently, it has been proposed a new method to investigate the linear/nonlinear properties of a time series by decomposing it into two sub-series: magnitude and sign sub-series (Ashkenazy et al., 2003). The long-range correlation properties of the magnitude and sign sub-series relate to nonlinear and linear behavior of the original time series respectively. We apply this method to the hourly time variability of geoelectrical signals, measured from January 2001 to September 2002 by four stations installed in Basilicata region (southern Italy). Three stations (Giuliano, Marsico and Tito) are located in a seismic area, and one (Laterza) in a low-seismicity area. A site-dependence of the linear/nonlinear properties has been shown, revealing that different dynamics govern signals measured in seismic and low-seismicity areas.

Description: Damaging hydrogeomorphological events are defined as one or more simultaneous phenomena (e.g. accelerated erosions, landslides, flash floods and river floods), occurring in a spatially and temporal random way and triggered by rainfall with different intensity and extent. The storm rainfall values are highly dependent on weather condition and relief. However, the impact of rainstorms in Mediterranean mountain environments depend mainly on climatic fluctuations in the short and long term, especially in rainfall quantity. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Rainfall Hazard Index (RHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In RHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. RHI integrate two rainfall variables based upon storm depth current and historical data, both of a fixed duration, and a one-dimensionless parameter representative of the degree ecosystem flexibility. The approach was applied to a test site in the Benevento river-torrential landscape, Campania (Southern Italy). So, a database including data from 27 events which have occurred during an 77-year period (1926-2002) was compared with Benevento-station RHI(24h), for a qualitative validation. Trends in RHIx for annual maximum storms of duration 1, 3 and 24h were also examined. Little change is observed at the 3- and 24-h duration of a storm, but a significant increase results in hazard of a short and intense storm (RHIx(1h)), in agreement with a reduction in return period for extreme rainfall events.

Description: Multi sensor data available through remote sensing satellites provide information about changes in the state of the oceans, land and atmosphere. Recent studies have shown anomalous changes in oceans, land, atmospheric and ionospheric parameters prior to earthquakes events. This paper introduces an innovative data mining technique to identify precursory signals associated with earthquakes. The proposed methodology is a multi strategy approach which employs one dimensional wavelet transformations to identify singularities in the data, and an analysis of the continuity of the wavelet maxima in time and space to identify the singularities associated with earthquakes. The proposed methodology has been employed using Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) data to study the earthquakes which occurred on 14 August 2003 and on 1 March 2004 in Greece. A single prominent SLHF anomaly has been found about two weeks prior to each of the earthquakes.

Description: According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1) prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2) unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.

Description: Temporal and spatial characteristics of intense quasi-static electric fields and associated electric potential structures in the return current region are discussed using Cluster observations at geocentric distances of about 5 Earth radii. Results are presented from four Cluster encounters with such acceleration structures to illustrate common as well as different features of such structures. The electric field structures are characterized by (all values are projected to 100 km altitude) peak amplitudes of ≈1V/m, bipolar or unipolar profiles, perpendicular scale sizes of ≈10km, occurrence at auroral plasma boundaries associated with plasma density gradients, downward field-aligned currents of ≈10µA/m2, and upward electron beams with characteristic energies of a few hundred eV to a fewkeV. Two events illustrate the temporal evolution of bipolar, diverging electric field structures, indicative of positive U-shaped potentials increasing in magnitude from less than 1kV to a few kV on a few 100s time scale. This is also the typical formation time for ionospheric plasma cavities, which are connected to the potential structure and suggested to evolve hand-in-hand with these. In one of these events an energy decay of inverted-V ions was observed in the upward field-aligned current region prior to the acceleration potential increase in the adjacent downward current region, possibly suggesting that a potential redistribution took place between the two current branches. The other two events were characterized by intense unipolar electric fields, indicative of S-shaped potential contours and were encountered at the polar cap boundary. The total observation time for these events was typically 10-20s, too short for monitoring the evolution of the structure, but yet of interest for revealing their short term stability. The locations of the two bipolar events at the poleward boundary of the central plasma sheet and of the two unipolar events at the polar cap boundary, suggest that the special profile shape depends on whether plasma populations, dense enough to support upward field-aligned currents and closure of the return current, exist on both sides, or on one side only, of the boundary.

Description: The global auroral dissipation power as observed by the imager on the Polar spacecraft is used as a proxy for the power dissipation of the Earth's magnetosphere to examine whether or not the magnetosphere is an avalanching system. It is found that the probability density distributions for the area and power of auroral activity sites have a power law component within a finite scale range, suggestive of a scale-free nature in this finite-size system. This property is robust, prevailing with variations in the threshold used to define auroral activity sites and in the strength of the external driver, namely, the solar wind. The statistical characteristics on the temporal evolution of auroral sites are then examined, which leads to a criterion that can be used to predict about 42min in advance the total energy dissipation during the lifetime of an auroral activity site. The scale-free characteristics of auroral activity appears to be an intrinsic feature of the magnetosphere based on a comparison of the probability density distribution in the total auroral brightness power with that of the solar wind power input parameters in the same period as the auroral observations. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of the magnetosphere behaving like an avalanching system.

Description: A dispersive Landau-fluid model is used to study the decay and modulational instabilities of circularly-polarized Alfvén waves in a collisionless plasma, as well as their nonlinear developments. Comparisons are presented with the drift-kinetic approximation for the dispersionless regime and with hybrid simulations in more general conditions. The effect of the nature of the instability on particle heating is discussed, together with the formation of coherent structures or the development of an inverse cascade.

Description: An extension of the Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis (MC SSA) is described, based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, in addition to the test based on variance (eigenvalues). The application of the regularity index, computed from a coarse-grained estimation of mutual information, enhances the test sensitivity and reliability in detection of relatively more regular dynamical modes than those obtained by decomposition of colored noises, in particular, in detection of irregular oscillations embedded in red noise. This enhanced MC SSA is successfully applied in detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in records of monthly average near-surface air temperature from several European locations, as well as in the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index.

Description: Thin current sheets represent important and puzzling sites of magnetic energy storage and subsequent fast release. Such structures are observed in planetary magnetospheres, solar atmosphere and are expected to be widespread in nature. The thin current sheet structure resembles a collapsing MHD solution with a plane singularity. Being potential sites of effective energy accumulation, these structures have received a good deal of attention during the last decade, especially after the launch of the multiprobe CLUSTER mission which is capable of resolving their 3D features. Many theoretical models of thin current sheet dynamics, including the well-known current sheet bifurcation, have been developed recently. A self-consistent 1D analytical model of thin current sheets in which the tension of the magnetic field lines is balanced by the ion inertia rather than by the plasma pressure gradients was developed earlier. The influence of the anisotropic electron population and of the corresponding electrostatic field that acts to restore quasi-neutrality of the plasma is taken into account. It is assumed that the electron motion is fluid-like in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field and fast enough to support quasi-equilibrium Boltzmann distribution along the field lines. Electrostatic effects lead to an interesting feature of the current density profile inside the current sheet, i.e. a narrow sharp peak of electron current in the very center of the sheet due to fast curvature drift of the particles in this region. The corresponding magnetic field profile becomes much steeper near the neutral plane although the total cross-tail current is in all cases dominated by the ion contribution. The dependence of electrostatic effects on the ion to electron temperature ratio, the curvature of the magnetic field lines, and the average electron magnetic moment is also analyzed. The implications of these effects on the fine structure of thin current sheets and their potential impact on substorm dynamics are presented.