ALBERT

Notes: Microsimulation methods are used to identify the contribution of tax and benefit reforms to the significant growth in UK income inequality since 1979. The total effect turns out to depend crucially on the counterfactual against which the reforms are assessed: compared with the alternative of pure price-indexation, the total effect of reform is small; by contrast, compared with a counterfactual in which benefits rose in line with national income (historically the case before 1979), the effect is substantial – approximately half the total rise in income inequality is explained. The impact of reforms on inequality has varied significantly over time: income tax cuts in the late 1970s and late 1980s increased inequality; direct tax rises in the early 1980s and 1990s, together with increases in means-tested benefits in the late 1990s, reduced it. The robustness of the results to sampling variation and to the measure of inequality used is also investigated.

Notes: In this paper, we consider research on links between higher education and family background, focusing particularly on the experiences of two cohorts of individuals born in 1958 and 1970. The findings point to a rise in educational inequality during the period relevant to these two cohorts. Specifically, links between educational achievement and parental income / social class strengthened during this period. Furthermore, a person's actual (measured) ability became a poorer predictor of whether they would get a degree than was previously the case. The expansion of higher education in the UK during this period appears to have disproportionately benefited children from richer families rather than the most able. Furthermore, the labour market success or failure of individuals became more closely connected to their parents' income, revealing a fall in the extent of intergenerational mobility over time.

Notes: This paper tests the published section-level price and weight data used in the compilation of the UK retail price index (RPI) for consistency with the theory of the cost-of-living index. We use a non-parametric test of theoretical consistency and bootstrap statistical methods to estimate the probability of consistency.

Notes: This paper assesses the distributional impact of indirect taxes among Greek households between 1988 and 2002, a period that coincides with the introduction of significant reforms in the tax system due to EU membership. The highly differentiated indirect tax structure prevailing at the beginning of the period had distributional benefits over the more simplified 2002 tax structure. The overall inequality of the after-tax welfare distribution has increased by 6–12½ per cent and changes in the indirect tax system seem to explain about half of this increase. The paper also applies a recent method of measuring the distributional impact of relative price changes caused by changes in tax rates of commodities (Newbery, 1995) and establishes that indirect tax reforms introduced since 1988 had an adverse impact on the distribution of purchasing power, which nevertheless seems to be very small.

Notes: Consensual deprivation indicators assume that there is a broad consensus on what goods/services families should be able to afford, and that an inability to afford those items can measure deprivation. Using data from two British surveys in 1999, this paper makes two arguments. First, there is only limited agreement about which items families should be able to afford. Secondly, different social groups are more (or less) likely to say the absence of a ‘necessity’ is due to choice. Families who cannot afford two or more ‘necessities’ invariably have a number of ‘nonnecessities’, often many. Their patterns of preferences (and spending) are not typical and they are choosing to buy other goods – through preference rather than poverty. Simply checking whether people lack items for any reason provides results empirically as reliable, but subject to similar criticisms.

Notes: This paper provides estimates of individual and aggregate revenue elasticities of income and consumption taxes in the UK over the period 1989–2000. It shows how budgetary changes, including changes to income-related deductions, have substantially affected income elasticities. The estimates of consumption tax revenue elasticities show that changes in consumption patterns over time are important. A merit of the approach used here is that elasticity estimates can be calculated readily from official published sources.

Notes: Household accumulation of debt and arrears on debt, especially among low-income families, is an extremely topical issue in the UK media and in policy circles. This paper utilises data from the UK's Survey of Low Income Families in order to examine use of credit, and default and arrears, among low-income families with children. It shows how credit use and accumulation of arrears differ between single parents and couples with children, and also between homeowners and renters. It also briefly examines the persistence of arrears on specific forms of credit using the panel element of the data-set, now named the Families and Children Survey.

Notes: The evaluation of taxpayers' compliance costs has grown in significance within tax system research over the last 15 years. In 2001, two surveys of VAT and personal income taxpayers were conducted in Slovenia to evaluate compliance costs for the 2000 fiscal year. This paper presents the results of research into compliance costs for personal income tax in Slovenia. The results show that compliance costs for personal income tax are relatively low, primarily because most taxpayers consider filing their tax declaration to be a simple procedure, which means that consultancy costs are low.

Notes: A key figure suited to measuring intergenerational imbalances in unfunded public pension schemes is given by the ‘implicit tax rate’ imposed on each generation's lifetime income. The implicit tax arises from the fact that, quite generally, pension benefits fall short of actuarial returns to contributions paid to these systems while actively working. Under current pension policies, implicit tax rates will increase sharply for younger generations in most industrialised countries. In this paper, this is illustrated for the cases of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Nevertheless, there are remarkable differences across countries regarding both the level of implicit taxes and their development over successive age cohorts, which can be attributed to differences in ageing processes and in the institutional features of national pension systems. In addition, we can demonstrate how effective different approaches to pension reform are in smoothing the intergenerational profile of implicit tax rates.

Notes: Evidence that welfare-to-work programmes in the USA succeed in boosting welfare recipients' earnings at modest cost has helped shape policy in Britain since 1997. So too has the belief that programmes that prioritise moving people into work quickly are more effective than ones that seek to enhance human capital. However, there is little evidence on how long the beneficial effects of programmes persist after individuals leave them. The analysis reported draws on the experience of 64 US welfare-to-work programmes that have all been evaluated using random assignment. It concludes that, on average, these programmes have a positive effect on participants' earnings for five to six years. The effects of ‘work first’ interventions are most marked early on and decline more rapidly than those of programmes emphasising human capital. Nevertheless, work first interventions typically increase earnings received over six years by more than two-and-a-half times that achieved by human capital approaches.

Notes: Over the last decade, managed-care companies have been consolidating on both a regional and national scale. More recently, nonprofit health plans have been converting to for-profit status, and this conversion has frequently occurred as a step to facilitate merger or acquisition with a for-profit company. Some industry observers attribute these managed-care marketplace trends to an industry shakeout resulting from increased competition in the sector. At the same time, these perceived competitive pressures have led to questions about the long-run viability of nonprofit health plans. Furthermore, some industry and government leaders believe that some nonprofits are already conducting themselves like for-profit health plans and question the state premium tax exemption ordinarily accorded to such plans. This paper examines related health policy issues through the lens of a case study of the proposed conversion of the CareFirst Blue Cross Blue Shield company to a for-profit public-stock company and its merger with the Wellpoint Corporation. Company executives and board members argued that CareFirst lacked access to sufficient capital and faced serious threats to its viability as a financially healthy nonprofit health care company. They also argued that CareFirst and its beneficiaries would benefit from merger through enhanced economies of scale and product-line extensions. Critics of the proposed conversion and merger raised concerns about the adverse impacts on access to care, coverage availability, quality of care, safety-net providers, and the cost of health insurance. Analyses demonstrate that CareFirst wields substantial market power in its local market, that it is unlikely to realize cost savings through expanded economies of scale, and that access to capital concerns are largely driven by the perceived need for further expansion through merger and acquisition. Although it is impossible to predict future changes in quality of care for CareFirst, analyses suggest that quality appears to be somewhat lower in for-profit national managed-care companies. Additional research is needed to assess the viability of true nonprofits, the potential effects of nonprofits and for-profit national managed-care plans on the evolution of local insurance andprovider markets, and methods for effective oversight of nonprofit healthplans.

Notes: Restrictive policies aimed at reducing the likelihood of bank failure during recessions tend to increase the probability of a credit crunch. In this paper we infer governments' policy responses to this dilemma by studying the cyclical behavior of bank capital in 1369 banks from 28 OECD countries during the period 1992-98. We find significant differences across countries. In the US and Japan, bank capital is counter-cyclical, that is, the typical bank strengthens its capital base during periods of weak economic activity. In the other countries, there is no relationship between the level of macroeconomic activity and bank capital. From these findings we infer that severe banking crises in the US and Japan may have made policymakers there more vigilant towards "unhealthy" banks, even when this implies an increase in the risk of a credit crunch. In countries without such crisis experience, policymakers seem to be less concerned about future banking crises. Our results suggest that the strong push by the US for the 1988 Basle Accord may have been a reflection of this increased sensitivity. They also suggest that, to the extent business cycles do not develop in synchronicity across countries and policymakers respond differently to the banking crisis-credit crunch dilemma, current reforms of the Basle Accord, which are designed to tighten regulatory requirements, may encounter difficulties.

Notes: In an economy with multiple sources of risk, the short-term interest rate does not capture all the information that determines the conditional distribution of bond yields. This is also true for path-dependent term structure models. In either case, the current short rate level is not a sufficient statistic for the conditional density of future short rates. This paper studies the empirical relevance of both issues from a time-series nonparametric perspective. The analysis is formulated as a test for the dependence of the short rate drift and diffusion on variables other than the short rate, and exploits Ait-Sahalia, Bickel, and Stocker (2001) dimension reduction method. The paper explores the finite sample performance of the method and applies the test to US interest rate data. Results reject a single-factor Markovian model, although conclusions are sensitive to the choice of additional conditioning variables.

Notes: The paper introduces the class of seasonal specific structural time series models, according to which each season follows specific dynamics, but is also tied to the others by a common random effect. Seasonal specific models are dynamic variance components models that account for some kind of periodic behaviour, such as periodic heteroscedasticity, and are also tailored to deal with situations such that one or a group of seasons behave differently. Trends and non periodic features can still be extracted and their nature is discussed. Multivariate extensions entertain the case when cointegration pertains only to groups of seasons. It is finally shown that a circular correlation pattern for the idiosyncratic disturbances yields a periodic component that is isomorphic to a trigonometric seasonal com- ponent.

Notes: We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement and work well in practice.

Notes: This paper considers the measurement of the equity risk premium in financial markets from a new perspective that picks up on a suggestion from Merton (1980) to use implied volatility of options on a market portfolio as a direct 'ex-ante' estimate for market variance, and hence the risk premium. Here the time variation of the unobserved risk premium is modelled by a system of stochastic differential equations connected by arbitrage arguments between the spot equity market, the index futures and options on index futures. We motivate and analyse a mean-reverting form for the dynamics of the risk premium. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, information about its time varying conditional distribution is extracted using an unobserved component state space formulation of the system and Kalman filtering methodology. In order to cater for the time variation of volatility we use the option implied volatility in the dynamic equations for the index and its derivatives. This quantity is in a sense treated as a signal that impounds the market's 'ex-ante', forward looking, view on the equity risk premium. The results using monthly U.S. market data over the period January 1995 to June 2003 are presented and the model fit is found to be statistically significant using a number of measures. Comparisons with ex-post returns indicate that such historical measures may be understating the market risk premium.

Notes: This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime.

Notes: The past decade has witnessed an increasingly rapid tendency toward globalization in the world economy, and this has significantly affected the comparative advantage and international competitiveness of nations. This paper examines the effect of globalization on the comparative advantage and international competitiveness of Europe in manufactured goods as a whole, in high technology goods, and in office equipment and telecommunications during the past two decades. In particular, the paper evaluates the view that Europe is facing a serious double competitiveness squeeze - in high-technology goods from the United States and Japan and from the bottom in simpler manufactured goods from emerging developing countries, especially the Dynamic Asian Economies. This view is based on the over-regulation and rigid labor markets prevailing in most European countries. The paper shows, however, that this view is not generally correct.

Notes: This paper evaluates the impact of China's WTO entry and the establishment of a free-trade agreement between China and ASEAN on the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). We examine the trade competition between the two regions using a market-share model and assess the impact of China's WTO entry on the ASEAN-5 with an exchange rate-tariff model, based on two-digit SITC data. It is found that for the period 1987 to 2000 the competition in trade only occurred between China and Singapore in manufacturing goods, while the competition between China and other four nations was in primary goods. The trade-widening opportunity between the two regions appears much larger than the competitive challenges for ASEAN-5 after the WTO entry of China and the establishment of FTA between ASEAN and China, impacts on different industries are evaluated.

Notes: This article presents the empirical results of an intra-industry trade analysis of the United States fabric industry. The analysis included 92 countries in four Standard Industrialized Trade Classification (SITC) categories that represent the fabric industry. Results indicated that intra-industry trade levels were generally low, and country specific factors such as levels of economic development, levels of market size and trade deficit were negatively associated with intra-industry trade levels, while distance and trade barriers were somewhat positively associated. These results have strong implications for trade analysts, policy makers and fabric manufacturers as this industry is currently undergoing changes.

Notes: We study decentralized trade in dynamic markets with homogeneous, non-atomic, buyers and sellers that wish to exchange one unit. In the first part of the paper we characterize equilibrium in a bargaining model with two-sided time varying outside options. In the second part we analyze a market equilibrium model in which (i) buyers and sellers are randomly matched in pairs; (ii) each buyer-seller pair bargains over the price of a good; and (iii) each agent has the option of abandoning negotiations, in which case the value of returning to the pool of unmatched agents constitutes an outside option. The second part is therefore an application of the first part in which the values of the outside options are endogenous to the model. Conditions for uniqueness of the market equilibrium are given; when it is unique it converges to the Walrasian outcome as frictions vanish. To the extent that multiplicity of market equilibria may (under some conditions) persist as frictions are removed, the limit of some sequences of equilibrium prices may converge to non-Walrasian values.

Notes: This paper presents a novel explanation of the decision by a firm to make an input within the firm rather than to out-source the production to another firm. Due to the limited attention of the manager/entrepreneur, time spent overseeing production in-house has an opportunity cost: the neglect of potential new products/markets. Outsourcing production economizes on attention, but writing and negotiating contracts also has an opportunity cost: the neglect of current operations. This paper derives the endogenous transaction costs of writing a contract with another party and shows that positive transaction costs are not sufficient for the optimal internalization of transactions. However, positive net transaction costs results in the optimal decision to produce the input internally. In addition, although there are larger firm sizes of higher value than obtainable under the optimal policy, the optimal policy maximizes the social value of each individual transaction.

Notes: In a model of bank lending characterized by asymmetric information, we show that banks may use an interim monitoring technology strategically to soften price competition, even though the borrowers face no moral hazard problem. The interim monitoring technology can also be used to alleviate adverse selection. The equilibria that emerge resemble those in vertical product differentiation models. We also show that because of the strategic use of interim monitoring, a bank may forego the use of a costless and perfect ex-ante screening technology.

Notes: In this paper we try to explain how price discrimination can cause bilateral trade patterns of the type seen under countertrade agreements. We interpret countertrade as a form of transaction bundling, which can discriminate between potential trading partners, and we combine characteristics from two explanations as to the existence of countertrade: Price discrimination through transaction bundling, and adverse selection arising from the uncertainty in the quality of the goods produced by trading partners in a less developed country (LDC) leading to a partner preference from the side of the Western (DC) firm. Our paper shows that the trade volume prospects of a firm in a LDC can be considerably enhanced if a countertrade transaction is bundled, and that such gains in trade become greater (relative to the case of no bundling), the greater the degree of quality uncertainty in the good it sells. It is also shown that it is profit maximising for a firm in a DC to offer mixed bundling for the exchange transaction, and that the profits derived from such bundling are a decreasing function of both the degree of uncertainty in the good sold by the firm in the LDC, and the marginal cost of the good sold by firm in the DC.

Notes: This paper contributes to the unresolved issue regarding the effect of economic integration on environmental policymaking. In particular, we discuss the joint impact of trade openness and political stability on environmental policymaking. Our theory predicts that the effect of trade integration on environmental policy is conditional on the degree of political stability. Trade integration affects the stringency of environmental policies due to changes in industry bribery behavior, and the effect is conditional on the degree of political stability. The empirical findings support the theory and are robust to alternative specifications. The stringency enhancing effect on environmental policy of trade integration is greater in politically stable countries.

Notes: Many existing studies have found a correlation between inflation and price dispersion in goods markets. In this paper, we document that a similar correlation can be found in equity markets. We estimate the correlation between overall price changes and dispersion in the NYSE and in the NASDAQ. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 1999, we compare the stock market correlations with those of goods markets. We find striking correlations in both sets of markets. The most prominent explanations of the goods market correlation (such as menu costs) cannot plausibly apply to equity markets. Thus, our findings indicate that the correlation appears to be more widespread than can be accounted for by the usual explanations.

Notes: The Soviet Union was competing head to head with market economies in the generation of new technologies, not only in traditional industries such as steelmaking, electricity, and machineries, but also in high tech-areas such as synthetic materials and microelectronics. Yet its productivity performance was significantly worse than that of both developing and industrial countries. R&D-based growth models cannot explain this fact, as the Soviet effort in research and education was comparable to that of most advanced countries. I claim that a technology adoption model helps us understand better the Soviet experience. I hypothesize that the Soviet managerial compensation system generated an incentive for the manager to perform only a modest retooling activity out of fear of breaking the production norm that the planner imposed upon the firm.

Notes: We present a simple multiple equilibria model that incorporates the functioning of crony capitalism. We find that a government which is keen to support the interests of the élite is ready to stand the risk of a bank run since this is part of an equilibrium where investments are heavily subsidized, which favors the élite. However, we find that the liaison between the government and the business community is not per se sufficient to induce vulnerability of financial institutions to panic: the willingness to favor the élite also provides an incentive to rescue the banking system in the event of a run. This stabilizing effect dominates when the élite is relatively large. We also study how a policy of banks recapitalization may contribute to the stability of the banking institution. In fact, such a policy can make credible an ex post recovery of the financial system, thus preventing the panic from generating a self-fulfilling bank crisis.

Notes: This paper presents a two-country non-scale Schumpeterian endogenous growth model with interindustry North-South trade and wage rigidity in the North. Its purpose is to analyze the effects of a compression of the wage structure and an increase in unemployment benefits on Northern unskilled unemployment and growth. Both innovation and skill acquisition rates are endogenously determined. We show how the two labor market policies differ with respect to education incentives in a general equilibrium with balanced trade. We further highlight the relevance of North-South trade and incomplete Northern specialization for the labor market effects that we obtain in our model. We demonstrate that the growth effects of a compression of the Northern wage structure depend decisively on the specific formulation of rising R&D difficulty.

Notes: I present new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998. I first adopt Berndt's (1976) specification, which assumes that technological change is Hicks neutral. Consistently with his results, I estimate elasticities of substitution that are not significantly different from one. I next show, however, that restricting the analysis to Hicks-neutral technological change necessarily biases the estimates of the elasticity towards one. When I modify the econometric specification to allow for biased technical change, I obtain significantly lower estimates of the elasticity of substitution. I conclude that the U.S. economy is not well described by a Cobb-Douglas aggregate production function. I present estimates based on both classical regression analysis and time series analysis. In the process, I deal with issues related to the nonsphericality of the disturbances, the endogeneity of the regressors, and the nonstationarity of the series involved in the estimation.

Notes: Interest-rate smoothing is traditionally attributed to the gradual adjustment of monetary policy to shocks. Rudebusch (2002) argues that smoothing can also arise spuriously if an autocorrelated variable is incorrectly excluded from the estimated reaction function. This paper presents a model which discriminates between these two explanations using U.S. data. We find that both seem to matter, but that policy inertia appears to be less important than suggested by the existing literature. Further, the excluded variable is likely to reflect financial market conditions.

Notes: In this paper we use a modified neoclassical business cycle model to test two competing explanations of the expansion of the 1990s. The model can have indeterminate, multiple equilibria that give rise to expectation-driven business cycles. We fit into the model series of estimated speculative and productivity shocks and compare its predictions with empirical data. Our results suggest that the speculation hypothesis has more explanatory power than the productivity hypothesis in terms of matching the data. Speculative behavior of investors, therefore, may have contributed to the investment boom, the prolonged expansion, and the subsequent recession of the period 1991-2001.

Notes: Labor productivity comoves strongly with output, leads output and employment, and is only weakly correlated with employment. Procyclical productivity is observed in virtually all countries and industries, and it is observed even in periods of fluctuations due to pure demand shocks, such as during the Great Depression and the second World War. This paper shows that a standard RBC model driven by demand shocks alone is able to explain procyclical productivity without the need to resort to technology shocks or increasing returns to scale. The key element is labor hoarding due to adjustment cost of labor. It is also shown that the observed cross-country differences in productivity cycles can be rationalized by a single parameter alone - the size of the adjustment cost of labor.

Notes: In comparison to the standard literature on inequality and growth which assumes the former to be exogenous, we formulate a model in which inequality and growth are both endogenous. Long-run distribution, at least locally, is shown to be independent of the initial distribution of factor ownership. It is shown that exogenous policy changes that are primarily targeted towards growth and foster less inequality do enhance growth. But policies that are primarily redistributive and imply a more equal distribution reduce growth. This is consistent with recent empirical work which shows that inequality and growth may be positively related.

Notes: This paper fills an important gap in the literature on determinacy and existence of sunspot equilibria in stochastic linear self-referential models. The results in this paper demonstrate that heterogeneity in expectations may alter a model's regions of determinacy. We show how to associate with a heterogeneous expectations model (HE-model) a rational expectations model (ARE-model), the solutions to which are the equilibria of the HE-model. This association recasts the analysis of determinacy in the HE-model to analysis of determinacy in the ARE-model. We proceed to study a forward looking model and find that the stability properties of rational expectations models may not be robust. In particular, we present new results showing that in some models even a very small fraction of non-rational agents may preclude rational agents from coordinating on sunspots. Also, we present parameterizations of the model in which sunspots exist in the heterogeneous model when they do not exist in the rational expectations version of the model.

Notes: A number of recent papers have hypothesized that the Federal Reserve possesses information about the course of inflation and output that is unknown to the private sector, and that policy actions by the Federal Reserve convey some of this superior information. We conduct two tests of this hypothesis: 1) could monetary policy surprises be used to improve the private sector's ex ante forecasts of subsequent macroeconomic statistical releases, and 2) does the private sector revise its forecasts of macroeconomic statistical releases in response to these monetary policy surprises? We find little evidence that Federal Reserve policy surprises convey superior information about the state of the economy: they could not systematically be used to improve forecasts of statistical releases and forecasts are not systematically revised in response to policy surprises. One possible exception to this pattern is Industrial Production, a statistic that the Federal Reserve produces.

Notes: Actual and potential competition is a powerful source of discipline on the pricing behavior of firms. This paper extends the empirical literature on the pro-competitive impact of policy reforms by investigating the effects on price markups of barriers to both domestic and foreign entry in a sample of developed and developing countries. While both are found to be important determinants of industry markups, we find that country size affects the impact of tariffs and domestic entry regulation. Country size dampens the impact of the former and strengthens the effect of the latter.

Notes: This paper employs stochastic simulations of a small structural rational expectations model to investigate the consequences of the zero bound on nominal interest rates. We find that if the economy is subject to stochastic shocks similar in magnitude to those experienced in the United States over the 1980s and 1990s, the consequences of the zero bound are negligible for target inflation rates as low as 2 percent. However, the effects of the constraint are non-linear with respect to the inflation target and produce a quantitatively significant deterioration of the performance of the economy with targets between 0 and 1 percent. The variability of output increases significantly and that of inflation also rises somewhat. Also, we show that the asymmetry of the policy ineffectiveness induced by the zero bound generates a non-vertical long-run Phillips curve. Average output falls increasingly short of potential with lower inflation targets.

Notes: We analyze models where agents search for partners to form relationships (employment, marriage, etc.), and may or may not continue searching for different partners while matched. Matched agents are less inclined to search if their match yields more utility, and also if it is more stable. If one partner searches the relationship is less stable, so the other is more inclined to search, potentially making instability a self-fulfilling prophecy. We show this can generate multiple -- indeed, a continuum of -- equilibria. We investigate efficiency and show that in any equilibrium there tends to be too much turnover, unemployment, and inequality. We calibrate an example to see how well the model can account for job-to-job transitions, and to see how much endogenous instability matters.

Notes: We analyze a model of repeated franchise bidding for natural monopoly with contestable licensing -- a franchisee holds an (exclusive) license to operate a franchise until another firm offers to pay more for it. In a world where quality is observable but not verifiable, the simple regulatory scheme we describe combines market-like incentives with regulatory oversight to generate efficient outcomes.

Notes: This paper estimates the extent to which reduced employment following job loss among older workers can be explained as a response to altered pension incentives and earnings opportunities. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we first examine how workers' earnings, assets, pensions and the resulting financial incentive to retire are affected by job loss. We find important effects of job loss on the main financial components of workers' incentive to retire. We then examine retirement behavior after job loss, controlling for these changed retirement incentives, along with any additional effects of displacement not captured by retirement incentives. We find that the observed increased rates of retirement among displaced workers go far beyond these purely financial considerations. Very little of the reduced employment among older job losers can be explained by changes in wages and pension-related retirement incentives. Other barriers to reemployment may be more important explanations for the low employment rates of recently displaced older workers.

Notes: We present a perfect Nash equilibrium in which the creator of a work, motivated by economic considerations, selectively enforces her own copyright. In fact, the creator may not only permit, but may strategically promote infringement of the copyright, thereby participating indirectly in predatory pricing, and so raising barriers to entry. Our model is highly applicable to the software industry, where relatively high entry costs and the relatively low cost of copyright infringement make this phenomenon likely. We further show the conditions under which exogenous intervention, through intensive enforcement of copyrights, increases social welfare. Finally, we explore some potential strategies for such legal intervention.

Notes: This paper shows how to take into account risk aversion when measuring poverty under income variability. An application to British panel data suggests that income and poverty comparisons between the self-employed and other groups of households are sensitive to assumptions on the degree of risk aversion. The results point to the importance of panel data in order to account for risk aversion and income variability in the measurement of poverty.

Notes: While it is typically taken for granted that settlement of lawsuits increases social welfare, this paper shows that settlement can lower welfare. If the defendant has private information about the harm from his action both at the time of the action and the time of settlement bargaining, then defendants who cause different levels of harm can pay the same settlement amount in a partial pooling equilibrium. Settlement acts as a damage cap, preventing the defendant's liability from increasing with the harm over the full range of possible harms, leading to under-deterrence. This result holds even though the social planner can choose the socially optimal damage rule.

Notes: This paper models investment/entry decisions in a competitive industry that is subject to a quantity control, either on output or on a production input. The quantity control is implemented via the sale of licenses for the restricted output/input. We show that liberalizing the quantity control could reduce investment in the industry under certain circumstances. Furthermore, the level of investment in the industry is different depending on whether the licenses are tradable or not. Key factors to consider are the elasticity of demand for the final good and the degree of input substitutability. Two examples are presented to illustrate the results.

Notes: The benefits of competition among the long-distance interexchange carriers (IXCs) are not realized equally by all their customers. Despite the declines in rates under the discount plans, we document that basic message toll service (MTS) rates have been rising for several years. We show that poorer and less educated customers pay more than better educated and more affluent customers. We suspect that the reason for this correlation is that they are more apt to pay the MTS rates or other high rates, and we present some preliminary evidence that this tendency explains the correlation that we find. We also present evidence that the payment differences exist even after controlling for usage. These findings are significant because it seems likely to us that these two patterns (rising MTS rates and higher payments by the poor and the less educated) will each be ameliorated by the entry of the regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs) into long-distance markets--a state-by-state regulatory process that was nearly complete as of the beginning of 2004.

Notes: Using data from more than 400 legal serials, I estimate the impact of six publisher mergers on law serial prices during the period, 1990-2000. The results suggest that merger-related price increases were substantial during this period, even after accounting for secular price trends. Furthermore, these merger effects occurred across a broadly-defined portfolio of serial titles consisting of legal encyclopedias and treatises. For other types of serials, such as newsletters and looseleaf services, these effects were not observed. Based on the portfolio demand behavior of buyers, I offer an explanation for this result based on the degree of product differentiation at the level of the individual title. Of particular interest is the purchase of West Publishing Company by Thomson Financial & Professional Publishing Group in 1996. Despite a government-mandated divestiture of more than 50 titles, the results indicate that titles published by West-Thomson experienced a significant post-merger price increase.

Notes: Texas evaluates, accredits, and financially rewards schools based on student test scores. Test scores increased dramatically following this implementation of high stakes testing. This paper examines whether homebuyers valued these test score increases. The results show little or no relation between changes in test scores and changes in total housing value in a district. Strikingly, improved performance on college entrance exams is associated with increased total housing value. Using the college entrance exams as a benchmark, the results on the state test suggest that high stakes testing failed to increase perceived school quality.

Notes: This paper describes a new method of utility pricing - Variable Unit Pricing (VUP) - that results in both economic efficiency and cost recovery for a variety of supply situations faced by water utilities. The main advantage of VUP - compared to Increasing Block Rates - is that its parameters can be objectively determined from demand and cost information. The theoretical support for VUP is a welfare economics paradigm that integrates pricing with economic organization. VUP is shown to achieve social efficiency for a fixed-fee contractual arrangement between a profit-maximizing water utility and a public agency. Public involvement is required to express equity concerns, demand for public goods such as water quality and security, and to identify appropriate supply limits for conservation.

Notes: This paper examines whether community characteristics impact the air pollution abatement (APA) activity at nearby manufacturing plants, using establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey. Controlling for facility characteristics and various forms of formal environmental regulation, certain community characteristics are found to have additional effects on local APA expenditures. In particular, for the most pollution-intensive industries, larger per capita income is found to increase plant-level APA activity, as is a higher degree of homeownership, a greater concentration of Democratic voters, and being located in a metropolitan area. Meanwhile, a greater presence of manufacturing employees is found to decrease APA expenditures, suggesting a constituency that is more resistant to additional regulation. If local populations can indeed affect pollution abatement activity, they can impact the spatial distribution of pollution, thereby creating pollution haven effects.

Notes: The rise of managed healthcare organizations (MCOs) and the associated increased integration among providers has transformed US healthcare and at the same time raised antitrust concern. This paper examines how competition among MCOs affects the efficiency gains of improved price coordination achieved through integration. MCOs offer differentiated services and contract with specialized and complementary upstream providers to supply these services. We identify strategic pricing equilibria under three different market structures: overlapping upstream physician-hospital alliances, upstream-downstream arrangements such as Preferred Provider Organizations, and vertically integrated Health Maintenance Organizations. The efficiency gains achieved depend not only on organizational form but also on the toughness of premium competition. We show that, contrary to popular thinking, providers and insurers do not earn maximum net revenue when they are monopolies or monopsonies, but rather at an intermediate level of market power. Furthermore, closer integration of upstream and downstream providers does not necessarily increase net revenues.

Notes: This paper examines whether trade relationships facilitate resolution of international environmental spillovers. Trade might promote cooperation by providing opportunities for implicit side payments, allowing linkage between environmental and trade concessions, providing direct leverage over other countries' production, or instilling a perception of shared goals. Using data from the UN's Global Environmental Monitoring System (GEMS) on water quality in international rivers, the paper examines the influence of bilateral trade on pollution in rivers that cross international borders. It reports evidence of lower water pollution in rivers shared between countries with more extensive trade. Improved coordination from expanded trade may thus represent a benefit to weigh against the environmental costs of the pollution havens effect.

Notes: Several different theoretical models of economic growth and environmental quality each generate inverse-U-shaped pollution-income paths, or "environmental Kuznets curves." They rely on different assumptions to generate the reversal of pollution trends, with correspondingly different policy implications. While the empirical implications for pollution are indistinguishable (by design), the models have distinct implications for the pattern of people's marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for environmental improvements as a function of income. In this paper we demonstrate those different implications theoretically, and test for them empirically using data from the World Value Survey (WVS). We find strong relationships between MWTP and individual characteristics, such as age, income, and education, but little evidence that MWTP varies systematically with economic growth.

Notes: This study investigates the issue of whether part of the increase in total IRA contributions from 1997 to 1998 can be attributed to increased advertising due to the introduction of Roth IRAs in 1998. In this study, the use of a tax preparer will proxy for exposure to information regarding IRAs. A preparer is expected to have less of an influence on IRA participation in 1998 relative to 1997. I find evidence supporting this prediction amongst taxpayers eligible for an IRA contribution in both 1997 and 1998. However, I also find evidence suggesting that more information would have led to a potentially sizable increase in participation for taxpayers newly eligible for an IRA contribution in 1998.

Notes: In recent years, a plethora of public and private programs in the United States have been created to close the "Digital Divide." Interestingly, however, we know very little about the underlying causes of racial differences in rates of computer and Internet access. In this paper, I use data from the Computer and Internet Use Supplement to the August 2000 Current Population Survey (CPS) to explore this question. Estimates from the CPS indicate that Mexican-Americans are roughly one-half as likely to own a computer and one-third as likely to have Internet access at home as whites. The black home computer rate is 59 percent of the white rate and the black home Internet access rate is 51 percent of the white rate. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decompositions, I find that racial differences in education, income and occupation contribute substantially to the black/white and Mexican-American/white gaps in home computer and Internet access rates. The digital divide between races, however, is not simply an "income divide" as income differences explain only 10 to 30 percent of the gaps in access to technology. I do not find evidence that price or school differences are responsible for the remaining gaps. I find some evidence, however, that language barriers may be important in explaining low rates of computer and Internet access among Mexican-Americans.

Notes: This paper develops a common agency model to analyze the strategic interaction between governments in regulating polluting multinationals. We show that when a firm has private information about its production technology relating output to pollution that is difficult to monitor, the information rent extraction behavior of non-cooperative governments will work against the "pollution haven" hypothesis in a Nash equilibrium with or without pooling. The "pollution haven" result is more likely to be reversed in a separating equilibrium than in a pooling equilibrium as a firm's output is further away from the most efficient outcome. This result provides an explanation for why many empirical studies do not support the "pollution haven" hypothesis even after controlling for private non-environmental cost differentials.

Notes: We empirically investigate the responsiveness of international trade to the stringency of environmental regulation. Stringent environmental regulation may impair the export competitiveness of 'dirty' domestic industries, and as a result, 'pollution havens' emerge in countries where environmental regulation is relatively less stringent. We examine the impact of pollution abatement and control costs on net exports in order to grasp this phenomenon. Theoretically, our analysis is related to a general equilibrium model of trade and pollution nesting the pollution haven motive for trade with the factor endowment motive. We analyze data on two-digit ISIC manufacturing industries during the period 1977-1992 in Germany, the Netherlands and the US, and show that trade patterns in 'dirty' commodities are jointly determined by relative factor endowments and environmental stringency differentials.

Notes: An important question that has continued to elude trade economists is why trade interventions are biased in favor of import-competing rather than exportable sectors. Indeed, as Philip Levy (1999) points out, under a set of neutrality assumptions, the dominant political-economy model, Grossman and Helpman (1994), predicts a pro-trade bias. We demonstrate that if we replace the almost partial equilibrium model with a general equilibrium model in the Grossman-Helpman political economy model, anti-trade bias may emerge even if we assume symmetric technologies, endowments and preferences across sectors provided that the elasticity of substitution in production exceeds unity. In addition, we show that ceteris paribus, in general equilibrium, increases in the imports-to-GDP ratio lower the endogenously chosen tariff and the production share of the import sector in GDP has an ambiguous effect.

Notes: This paper examines the importance of competition in innovation and the growth of firms. We make use of the large-scale natural experiment of the shift from an economic system without competition to a market economy to shed light on the factors that influence innovation by firms and their subsequent growth, thereby alleviating problems due to non-random clustering of innovation opportunities in mature market economies. We find evidence that monopolies innovate less and have weaker growth than firms facing a minimum of rivalry. The presence of competitors has both a direct effect on performance, and an indirect effect, through improving the efficiency with which the rents from market power in product markets are utilised to undertake innovation. There is also some less clear-cut evidence of an 'inverted-U', namely that the presence of a few rivals is more conducive to performance than the presence of many competitors.

Notes: We present and discuss a simple model of international trade in agricultural and manufactured commodities. Production of the latter takes places under monopolistic competition, and causes pollution. We incorporate mobility of skilled labor, the input in the manufacturing sector. One of the main findings is that pollution and environmental policy tend to countervail clustering that would occur in their absence.

Notes: This note provides a simple exposition of what IV can and cannot estimate in a model with binary treatment variable and heterogenous treatment effects. It shows how linear IV is essentially a misspecification of functional form and the reason why linear IV estimates will generally depend on the instrument used is because of this misspecification. It shows that if one can estimate the correct functional form then the treatment effects are independent of the instruments used. However, the data may not be rich enough in practice to be able to identify these treatments effects without strong distributional assumptions. In this case, one will have to settle for estimations of treatment effects that are instrument-dependent.

Notes: In a reciprocal market model with imperfectly competitive firms, domestic policies will differ across countries that are economically and politically diverse. We explore the implications of this standard result with regard to harmonization of environmental policies between corrupt and non-corrupt countries. Imposing a more stringent policy on a non-corrupt government will be welfare reducing to the 'receiving' country, but may be welfare enhancing for the 'imposing' country. However, where environmental standards are under the control of a corrupt government, it is possible that harmonization is welfare enhancing to both countries.

Notes: This paper analyses the consequences of an unusual type of land redistribution; we take land from the very rich, as usual, but give it to the rich instead of the poor. We show that such "moderate" reform reduces agency costs and thereby increases productivity, total surplus in the economy, and the welfare of rural workers. Compared to the classic redistribution "to the tiller", moderate reforms do worse in terms of equity and do not give the poor a collaterizable asset. They can however do equally well in terms of efficiency and might be more sustainable both financially and politically.

Notes: Knowles, Persico, and Todd (2001) develop a model of police search and offender behavior. Their model implies that if police are unprejudiced the rate of guilt should not vary across groups. Using data from Interstate 95 in Maryland, they find equal guilt rates for African-Americans and whites and conclude that the data is not consistent with racial prejudice against African-Americans. This paper generalizes the model of Knowles, Persico, and Todd by accounting for the fact that potential offenders are frequently not observed by the police, and by including two different levels of offense severity. We show that the data is consistent with prejudice against African-American males, no prejudice, and reverse discrimination, depending on the type of equilibrium that exists. Additional analyses, based on stratification by type of vehicle and time of day, do not shed any light on the nature of the equilibrium.

Notes: We examine a two-jurisdiction tax competition environment where local governments can only imperfectly monitor where agents pay taxes and risk-averse individuals may choose to cross borders to pay lower taxes in a neighboring location.In a game between local authorities, we find that, when communities differ in size, in equilibrium the smaller community sets lower taxes and attracts agents fromthe larger jurisdiction. With identical communities, tax rates must be equal.Finally, we examine the incentives of jurisdictions to harmonize tax rates and find that, whenever the smaller community benefits from tax harmonization, the largerjurisdiction will benefit also.

Notes: We consider a computational equilibrium model of spatially differentiated Bertrand competition and apply it to merger analysis. Two pricing paradigms are studied: one where firms cannot price discriminate among customers and one where firms can. The model encompasses many details that make it highly realistic. A detailed example illustrates several insights into merger analysis that are not readily apparent through traditional means. The most important of these is that merger of substitute products under Bertrand price competition need not result in a price increase.

Notes: Genetically modified (GM) foods have been engulfed in considerable controversy, and the early optimism has been dampened. Information issues--labeling and asymmetric information--are central to the GM-food debate. Furthermore, it is important to understand the reaction in developed countries to GM-foods because they set the tone of the world market in grains, oilseeds, and animal products. New results are reported from a statistical analysis of the market characteristics that push consumers in a high-income country to resist GM foods, with an emphasis on negative information from environmental groups and third-party, verifiable information, which could neutralize private information distributed by interested parties. A unique sample of adult consumers participated in laboratory auctions of three food products with randomized labeling and information treatments. A key finding is that GM information supplied by environmental groups increases the probability that consumers are out of the market for GM-foods. Third-party verifiable information, however, dissipates most of the negative effect of the environmental group perspective. Selective adoption of GM crops seems likely to raise world welfare but Western Europe's banning of GM imports and technology will largely affect them negatively.

Notes: Roads are being franchised to private firms in many countries, raising the issue of regulating the tolls they charge. When there is more than one road to get from one point to another, regulation need not be necessary, since competition may substitute for toll regulation. This paper studies toll competition among private asymmetric roads subject to congestion. We obtain two main results. First, in equilibrium tolls are higher than optimal, that is, there is too little congestion. This happens because road owners internalize the reduction in drivers' willingness to pay due to congestion, thereby softening competition. It follows that the drawback of private competition is exercise of market power, not excessive congestion as is sometimes conjectured. Second, the distortion becomes smaller as market size and the number of roads grow, even if the density of drivers does not change. In the limit tolls converge to the socially optimal level and are just enough to make each driver internalize the congestion externality. This suggests that the scope for competition is better in larger networks.

Notes: The paper presents some results from a stated-preference study that compares three samples of urban consumers of extra-virgin olive oil from three representative Italian cities: Naples (South), Rome (Centre) and Milan (North). A series of multinomial logit models are estimated from choice experiments responses and tested for unobserved heterogeneity for EU labelling informing on PDO/PGI, organic and place of origin attributes. The consequences of such form of heterogeneity are flashed out with respect to issues of market segmentation on the basis of the pattern of correlation across preferences as estimated from mixed logit models. Results indicate that product origin matters differently in different cities, while the sample from Naples is the least heterogeneous the Milan and Rome samples display highest taste heterogeneity, but also stronger intensity of taste.

Notes: This study analyzes gambling addiction in Taiwan by using lottery data from 1978 to 1984. Two main conclusions can be drawn from the empirical evidence of this study. First, lottery play is strongly addictive in Taiwan, and the results are consistent with the theory of rational addiction. Second, the estimated short-run and long-run price elasticities are -0.136, and -1.463, respectively. Because consumers are very likely rational, the concerns of public policy toward gambling should focus on the negative externalities rather than on its addictive nature.

Notes: A weak double-dividend is the proposition that the welfare improvement from a green tax reform, where the revenue from an environmental tax is used to reduce other tax rates, must be greater than the welfare improvement from a reform where the environmental taxes are returned in a lump sum fashion. We show in this note that a weak double-dividend need not hold in a world with multiple distortions. In an economy with multiple distortions one must choose carefully which tax rates to reduce, or one can do worse than a lump sum redistribution of the environmental tax revenues.

Notes: New health warnings on tobacco packaging in Canada became mandatory in January 2001. As of that time producers were required to print large-font warning text and graphic images describing the health consequences of using tobacco. This study uses micro data from two waves of Health Canada's Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Surveys bordering the legislation to investigate if the introduction of the warnings had any significant impacts on smokers. The recently drafted Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, under the sponsorship of the World Health Assembly, assigns a central role for this type of message. Our findings indicate that the warnings have not had a discernible impact on smoking prevalence. The evidence of their impact on quantity smoked is positive, though only at a relatively low level of confidence.

Notes: This paper utilizes field experiment methodology and market data to study the "Buy-it-Now" (BIN) function in a series of eBay coin auctions. BIN auctions are typically listed by sellers with higher reputations. The probability an auction will end BIN increases with seller reputation and is not significantly affected by negative comments. Auctions listed by new sellers average lower prices and are less likely to end BIN. Buyer use of the BIN option increases as the BIN price decreases. We find that price is directly related to seller reputation, though not affected by negative comments, and is negatively related to buyer reputation. This result is driven by those auctions that start with a BIN price.

Notes: As patent applications increase, and the range of patentable technologies increases, the length of time it takes for an invention to go through the examination process at the U.S. Patent Office has increased. Concerns over the distributional effects of these changes have been expressed during policy debates. We use data on U.S. patent applications and grants to ask who is affected by longer grant lags. We augment this analysis with interviews of patent examiners, leading to a better understanding of the examination process. Our analysis finds that differences across technology are most important. These differences do not erode over time, suggesting that learning effects alone will not reduce grant lags. Inventor characteristics have statistically significant effects, but the magnitudes are small.

Notes: This article analyzes voter mobilization and interest group activity within a citizen-candidate model. Interest groups influence the decisions of 'high cost' voters by running a 'get out the vote' campaign. Membership fees paid by citizens joining an interest group finance the vote drives. Because citizens choose whether to join an interest group, size is an endogenous feature of equilibrium outcomes. In contrast to the existing literature, it is shown that smaller groups may have greater influence. Importantly, this result does not depend on the ability of smaller groups to overcome the free rider problem. Intuitively, because smaller groups may have a less diverse membership, they can advocate more extreme policy outcomes. An interest group's influence is shown to depend on voting costs and the separation between candidate positions. The presence of multiple interest groups mitigates an interest's influence, resulting in inefficiency.

Notes: New businesses face constraints in the form of limited access to capital and managerial expertise. Many governments have developed public venture capital programs for the purpose of easing these constraints and assisting young firms in generating growth in output and employment. The paper develops a model that incorporates occupational choice and informational asymmetries with regard to the ability of entrepreneurs and supply of effort, and determines the optimal supply of entrepreneurship, financial assistance, and managerial advice provided by a public venture capital program.

Notes: A number of studies show that consumers are willing to pay premiums for GM-Free foods. In this paper, we examine the effect, if any, that GM-Free messages have on product selection by the consumer. We made sample products which differed in the use of the labels and conducted two experiments: a choice experiment and a memory recall experiment. The result of our choice experiment demonstrates that the consumer who shows general concern about GM foods without relevant biotech knowledge responds to GM-Free messages on front labels. On the other hand, the result of our memory recall experiment shows that the consumer with relevant biotech knowledge uses the product information on back labels. Thus, firms can positively influence the product selection of biotech un-savvy consumers by placing GM-Free message on front labels.

Notes: Genetically modified crops have met some consumer opposition domestically and abroad. This opposition has resulted in variety market and policy reactions with a large potential to disrupt trade and to become a focus of international negotiations. In this paper we consider the spillover from adopters to the non-adopters and non-consumers of GM technology. In the absence of any (organizational) transaction costs the assignment of property right to use the name corn will result in Pareto improving decisions with respect to the introduction of GM technology. However, in the presence of transaction costs the ability to use generic crop names such as corn, the adopters of GM technology have the implicit right and will impose costs on participants in the non-GM marketing channel, by creating a lemons problem. This assignment of property rights can result in the commercial introduction of GM despite potential losses in overall social welfare. If the property rights are reassigned such that the innovators are forced to segregate their GM products through labeling laws, this preempts welfare decreasing technology introduction. The relative efficiency of either allocation of property rights depends on the cost savings, rate of adoption, segregation costs, and consumers' preference for the GM crop in question. This suggests that assignment of property rights may be more effective if done on a case-by-case basis rather than a one size fits all policy.

Notes: The EU Commission has swayed away from the voice of industry by adopting an economic approach to the assessment of agreements under EU competition rules. These new rules have brought about some radical changes. The key factor for determining whether an agreement can be exempted will now be the level of the combined market share of the parties to the agreement /market share threshold/ and whether an agreement contains a prohibited restriction on competition list of hard core restrictions/.The New Block Exemption Regulation 2790/99/ lays down the basic rules on when and how distribution agreements can be exempted from Article 81 EC Treaty prohibition. Distribution agreements are regarded as anti-competitive, because they prevent competitors from entering into a specific distribution territory or product range. On the other side, they promote distribution and help manufacturers to enter into new markets. These agreements are very important for the functioning of the economy. The Block Exemption Regulation has been adopted for exclusive distribution agreements, selective distribution agreements, exclusive purchasing agreements and franchising. The new Regulation provides similar legal framework to the American one . The Law on the Protection of Market Competition of Croatia is based on the experience with the EC Competition Law and is in line with its Article 81. This law shows that in Croatia, the importance of the competition law as a part of economic law has been recognized since 1995. The Law sets the basis for the balancing of disadvantages and benefits for certain types of agreements (including distribution agreements) which, although they restrict competition to a certain extent, have to be considered as useful and efficient in the business sense. Also, there has been a revision of the Croatian Commercial Act , which has integrated the distribution agreements in the Croatian legal system.Due to all these positive changes and having in mind that Croatia is approaching the European economic integration, special attention must be paid to any legislative changes in theEU. For a further development of the Croatian competition law, the harmonization with this new Regulation will be a great challenge.Special attention must be paid to the way this new Regulation, together with an economic analysis, will be accepted in EC law and practice, because long after the new rules will have been introduced, many people in industry may remain puzzled by the complexity of these radical changes.

Notes: A few decades ago nobody was discussing a European Sales Law. Nowadays there are already academic working groups coming up with drafts on a future European Sales Law. The academic endeavours can be divided into three channels at this point in time. One concentrates on an already existing codification and aims to create a whole civil code. Another deduces some principles for European use from the already existing acquis communautaire. The third group is drafting principles on the basis of national legislation, the acquis communautaire and international instruments and will later combine these principles in a Civil Code. The drafted Principles of European Sales Law seek to serve different purposes. On the one hand, they will be an academic answer to the ongoing process relating to the EU-wide harmonization of contract law and will therefore offer their own dogmatic system. On the other hand, they could also be a model law for further comparative and legislative activities within European contract law. The final outcome of this process cannot be predicted, but it can be said that all approaches see the harmonised sales law imbedded within a structure of general rules.

Notes: How relevant is economic analysis of law in legal scholarship and in the teaching of tort law? To shed light on this question, the use of welfare-economic considerations to evaluate and explain decision-making in field of private law and torts is discussed. In particular, the article investigates the support in Norwegian tort law for the claim that welfare economics can improve our understanding of legal rules. After an introduction of the basic ideas and concepts with some illustrations from the "law and economics" literature, it will be focused on the Scandinavian law of negligence and the twin issues of strict liability and the concept of compensable harm. A due care formula dated 1914 which is equivalent to Learned Hand's well-known version is documented. Moreover, it is shown how Victor Mataja's 1888 book on the economics of strict liability had, contrary to previous assessments, a great deal of influence in parts of Europe (Denmark and Norway). The exposition shows that important tort doctrines have been discussed in light of an economic approach for more than a century and that this method can work also as a current form of pedagogy. In addition, the discussion indicates both that the legal-dogmatic tradition supports the use of welfare considerations resembling that of the economic approach, and that legal-dogmatic research borrowing ideas, concepts and models from economics is still likely to be fruitful.

Notes: This Essay argues that there is not, and indeed cannot be, a single exclusive method that comparative law research should follow. The tasks of teaching, research, of law reform, or historical investigation are too varied and contingent to be achieved by a single approach. It would be a serious blow if all matters had to be analysed from one angle or perspective, or treated with the same detail and depth, or prepared to the same degree or in the same way. Instead there should be a sliding scale of methods and the best approach will always be adapted in terms of the specific purposes of the research, the subjective abilities of the researcher, and the affordability of the costs. It cannot be said a priori that one method is always better than another until we know these variables. It is also shown that prescriptions about method must carefully distinguish the principal user groups, for the complex methods of scholars may be unworkable in the practical world where comparisons must be cost-justified. The message from Mount Olympus must not be that comparative law is always forbidding and difficult. The discipline must be accessible and its methods must be flexible.

Notes: Horatia Muir Watt and Luca Radicati di Brozolo have highlighted the circumstance that in an increasing number of contractual relationships the grasp of mandatory rules belonging to a specific national legal order may be reduced, by several devices. The reading of the article causes a number of considerations. As a first reaction one is drawn to reconsider one's long lasting persuasion: the strong attachment of a national legal system to the ordre public's exception may finally be declining, contrary to previous experience. Secondly, one has to reconcile the new data collected by the authors with indications pointing in a different direction: some of them emerging from the Inter-American Convention on the Law Applicable to International Contracts (Mexico City). Scholars show different reactions to a possible decline of the enforcement of mandatory rules: some writers are heartily in favour of a stronger competition between legal systems, cleared from restrictions depending on the "mandatory character" of certain rules. But elsewhere we also find voices advocating the intervention of supranational legislation in order to preserve some standards independently from the various States' policies. Curiously enough some sources of private legislation, such a the UNIDROIT Principles of international commercial contracts, conceived as eminently optional instruments, choose to qualify some of their provisions as mandatory (e.g. the good faith principle): you may choose whether or not to apply the Unidroit Principles, but once you opt in, you may not get away from some of its provisions.

Notes: At the Democratic Convention Clinton argued that he had put police on the street and took guns off, but that Bush has done the opposite. Was Clinton truly more anti-crime? I estimate that Clinton-era federal programs were responsible for a six to eight percent reduction in crime seen in the last decade. The Bush administration has failed to build on the Clinton administration's success in funding more police. For no good reason, a crime-control program that has a very favorable benefit/cost ratio is being cut back.

Notes: Fifteen years ago, I found it easy to be in favor of international capital mobility -- the free flow of investment financing from one country to another. Then it was easy to preach for an end to all systems of controls on capital that hindered this flow. Now it is harder.

Notes: Not long ago, Republicans were trying to pass a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. Democrats were skeptical, overwhelmingly Keynesian, and believed that deficit spending had ended the Great Depression. Under Rubinomics the positions began to switch: Democrats became the defenders of fiscal orthodoxy. Now Bush has cut taxes for the rich and caused huge deficits. Is the flip-flop just politics?

Notes: Larry Lessig flagellates himself about losing the Eldred case, which upheld the legality of copyright extensions. He shouldn't: Eldred was unwinnable. (The Court's 7-2 vote is one clue). Besides, the worst of the Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act's effects can still be made to disappear, if courts deem it "fair use" to copy an old work whose copyright owner hasn't taken reasonable steps to provide notice of his rights. This is what Bill Patry and I propose in a forthcoming article in the California Law Review. The present paper is based on that article and on a stint of guest blogging that I did for the Lessig Blog the week of August 22, 2004. See http://www.lessig.org/blog/archives/posner.shtml.

Notes: Under reasonable projections, the unified budget deficits over the next decade will average 3.5 percent of GDP. Compared to a balanced budget, the unified budget deficits will reduce annual national income a decade hence by 1 to 2 percent (or roughly $1,500 to $3,000 per household per year, on average), and raise average long-term interest rates over the next decade by 80 to 120 basis points. Looking out beyond the next decade, the budget outlook grows steadily worse. Over the next 75 years, if the tax cuts are made permanent, this nation's fiscal gap amounts to about 7 percent of GDP. The main drivers of this long-term fiscal gap are, in order, the spending growth associated with Medicare and Medicaid, the revenue losses from the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, and increases in Social Security costs. The nation has never before experienced such large long-term fiscal imbalances. They will gradually impair economic performance and living standards, and carry with them the risk of a severe fiscal crisis.

Notes: How did Enron, a firm worth $60 billion, collapse over the discovery of a billion or so in hidden debt and fraudulent accounting? It didn't. Or, at least, not directly. Market makers like Enron and Ebay are in the "trust" business, just as banks and insurance companies are. Once trust was lost, the rest of Enron's value quickly disappeared. The maintenance of customer trust is an important, and frequently mismanaged, aspect of business strategy. The legislative response of Sarbanes-Oxley may do some good, but cannot really ensure trust.

Notes: In "Eldred and Fair Use," Posner comments that awarding a monopoly over Mickey Mouse avoids the congestion problem that occurs with open access highways. Is the public domain a commons like an open access highway? No, it is not.

Notes: Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early results suggest that market participants strongly believe that Osama bin Laden's capture would have a substantial effect on President Bush's electoral fortunes, and interestingly that the chance of his capture peaks just before the election. More generally, these markets suggest that issues outside the campaign -- like the state of the economy, and progress on the war on terror -- are the key factors in the forthcoming election.

Notes: In a campaign speech given in Iowa, George Akerlof argues that the Bush administration has hamstrung its good administrators and opted time and again for waving a magic wand to solve problems instead of facing reality. The problem may be most severe in the case of the deficits, where if we don't face up to reality, Akerlof argues, there will be profound consequences.

Notes: Although substantial current account deficits can be sustained indefinitely, large deficits in goods and services trade cannot be. Even to stabilise the current account deficit, the United States must restore balance in goods and services trade within a decade or so. If this adjustment is to be achieved without a crisis, a range of policy adjustments will be needed. Options include a managed devaluation of the US dollar, substantial increases in public and household saving and initiatives to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas.

Notes: The question is whether it is possible to have a congestion externality in intellectual property, such as the Mickey Mouse character. Literally, the answer is no. Figuratively, it is yes.

Notes: All candidates and Presidents make some statements that make economists cringe, often put into speeches by political advisors unconstrained by economic literacy. From its description of the state of the economy to its policy prescriptions, much of the Kerry-Edwards campaign's pronouncements are at odds with economic reality and basic economic principles. While their first term was far from perfect (too much spending, steel tariffs), Bush-Cheney policies and proposals are much closer to textbook economics, both micro and macro. The article discusses several such areas: the description of the economy; countercyclical fiscal policy; and price regulation.

Notes: Government deficits are accelerating deindustrialization in the United States. Should we care? Absolutely. One reason is that manufacturing and associated learning-by-doing are powerful sources of external benefits that accelerate economy-wide productivity growth. A second is that the loss of manufacturing jobs is a powerful source of anger against free trade. The U.S. federal government needs to run surpluses to eliminate the savings deficiency of the American economy.

Notes: In the short run, the Bush tax cuts were one of the largest and best-timed uses of fiscal policy in history, helping to prevent a much worse downturn (but it would have been better still if the tax rate cuts had been immediate and real spending controls enacted simultaneously to take effect well into the economic expansion). In the medium run of five-to-ten years, the CBO projects gradually declining deficits and a debt-GDP ratio that rises slightly to peak at about 40% in two or three years, and then stabilizes for the rest of the decade through 2014 even as the tax cuts are made permanent, so long as the post-1998 splurge in non-defense discretionary spending is slowed substantially. This is hardly a debt spiraling out of control. The deficits will reduce domestic investment, but less than dollar-for-dollar. The effect is important, but hardly a cause for hysteria. Of course, President Bush's tax cuts and Senator Kerry's spending increases have ramifications well beyond the next decade, when fiscal pressures will become even more pronounced. In the long run of decades, the deficits in Social Security and Medicare are projected to be much larger than the unified deficit in the next ten years. Standard projections exceed fifty trillion dollars in present value, but may overstate the problem by assuming quite modest long-run annual growth, increases in health care outlays far in excess of GDP growth for the better part of a century (the only way that will happen is if the health benefits are sufficient for citizens to want to spend that much), large real benefit increases in Social Security, and continuous tax cuts to offset real bracket creep and the AMT. But even with less stark projections, there would still be large deficits and large tax increases looming. To avoid them, continuously rigorous spending control and major program reform is essential.

Notes: The U.S. economy is now on a sound footing for sustained expansion. This is a remarkable state of affairs in light of the powerful contractionary forces that have been at work since early 2000 -- the bursting of the high-tech bubble of the 1990s, corporate scandals, slow growth among our major trading partners, and of course terrorist attacks. But it is important not to take the economic expansion for granted. President Bush has set out an ambitious agenda to ensure a continued and expanding prosperity. At the top of his economic agenda are tax reform, the reduction of the fiscal deficit, and social security reform.