ALBERT

Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.

Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.

Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.

Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.

Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Notes: Identifying the causes of accidents is a necessary prerequisite for preventive action. Some research suggests however that the analysis of accidents does not only differ between experts and laymen but that it is also linked to certain characteristics inherent in the analyst and in the social group to which he belongs: beliefs, value systems, norms, experiences in common, attitudes, roles, social and technical practices, etc. Culturally determined bias seems to affect the perception of risk and the causes of accidents. This article presents a certain number of thoughts and results based upon research carried out on causal attributions of traffic accidents in The Ivory Coast (West Africa) and discusses the importance of culture in risk-taking and accident prevention. It shows in particular that fatalistic beliefs and mystical practices influence the perception of accidents and consequently incite one to take more risks and neglect safety measures.

Notes: Since substantial bias can result from assigning some type of mean exposure to a group, risk assessments based on epidemiological data should avoid the grouping of data whenever possible. However, ungrouped data are frequently unavailable, and the question arises as to whether an arithmetic or geometric mean is the most appropriate summary measure of exposure. It is argued in this paper that one should use the type of mean for which the total risk that would result if every member of the population was exposed to the mean level is as close as possible to the actual total population risk. Using this criterion an arithmetic mean is always preferred over a geometric mean whenever the dose response is convex. In each of several data sets examined in this paper for which the dose response was not convex, an arithmetic mean was still preferred based on this criterion.

Notes: Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose (ED05) and the benchmark dose (BMD05) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED05 with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED05 for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED05 for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.

Notes: Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.

Notes: The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human-made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk-assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk-design procedures.

Notes: Importance measures have been useful in the process of extracting insights from risk analyses. Importance measures have also been suggested for use in component classification. However, there are difficulties of interpretation associated with component classification based on importance measures. This paper briefly reviews an alternative method, “Top Event Prevention Analysis,” and, based on a simple example, compares its key characteristics to those of conventional applications of importance measures. The methods are compared with respect to the task of formulating a safety case for a complex and potentially hazardous facility, in which component classification plays an important role. A key subtask is identification of a collection of design elements that is necessary and sufficient to achieve the desired level of protection of the public, the workers, and the environment. At the design stage, identifying this set helps to determine what elements to include in the final design. Separately, a similar selection process could be used in order to justify limiting the scope of regulatory oversight to a subset of design elements, on which a safety case is to be based. This step could be taken during initial review of a design, or later as part of an effort to justify relief from regulatory requirements that are burdensome but provide little actual risk reduction.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARYA safety case should arguably be based on a collection of design elements that combine to provide satisfactory plant response to important safety challenges, and provide this response with the desired reliability (achieved through redundancy and diversity in design, and programmatic support activities as necessary in implementation). The key property of such a collection resides in the set as a whole, and not in any single element: the implications of including or not including any given design element in the collection depend strongly on what other design elements are included. Given a logic model that comprehensively addresses plant response, reflecting all components under consideration, and a defense-in-depth safety standard of the kind discussed above, TEPA is capable of choosing prevention sets: subsets of components that have the desired defense-in-depth property, and are suitable candidates for serving as the nucleus of a safety case.Single-event importance measures cannot capture considerations like this, except perhaps as part of an arduous iterative reformulation of a logic model to successively remove and restore combinations of events in a trial-and-error approach to a self-consistent design solution. No method of applying conventional importance measures has been shown to produce solutions that are feasible in the sense of completing pathsets, nor is one expected. Interpreting the upper portion of a ranked list of components as a safety case would therefore be a misapplication of the importance measure concept.However, given a prevention set, one could apply importance measures to fine-tune the allocation of resources within this set. That is, one could compute importances within a model that took credit only for elements of the prevention set, and reason from there. Even in this case, some iteration might be required in order to achieve a self-consistent allocation (one for which the reliability credit taken for each component is commensurate with the resources allocated to it). In order to draw valid conclusions in an application of this type, one must recall that all importance measures are predicated on credit for all modeled components; it is invalid to infer that components can be dropped from a safety case on grounds of low calculated importance. In short, application of importance measures is valid when (a) the selection problem has been solved by other means, (b) the importances are calculated with credit only for selected components, and (c) the resources allocated to each component are commensurate with the level of credit taken for the component (e.g., credit for a component's availability is backed up by an appropriate test schedule.).A byproduct of this work is the observation that whether or not TEPA itself is applied to choose prevention sets, a useful litmus test to be applied to a safety case is simply whether it is based on a union of complete success paths. As discussed above, thinking of the safety case in this way has other benefits, in helping to identify unmodeled components and in helping to specify the demands that must be met by each component, so that programmatic activities necessary to ensure its function can be identified and carried out. This formulation of the safety case helps in thinking about the relationship between component performance and resources allocated to that component. Understanding this relationship is essential to optimizing the use of safety resources.The number of combinations (possible prevention sets) that must be examined grows very rapidly as the number of design elements and minimal cutsets increases. Therefore, many realistic problems will be very demanding computationally. To some extent, this could be considered a drawback of TEPA, but it should be understood that the underlying problem is combinatorially very difficult, and actual solutions to it should not be expected to come easily in all cases. Fortunately, as illustrated by the practical applications summarized above, many real large-scale problems have specific features that permit their solution by adaptations of the general approach.

Notes: This paper raises two questions, i.e., Are some people more prone to perceive hazards than others embedded in the same dangerous working environment?, and—if so—Is it possible to find distinguishing characteristics allowing us to profile this worker segment? A survey study was conducted among catering personnel working on a drilling platform at the continental shelf in the North sea. It was observed that some people more than others perceived hazards in their working environment. By contrasting the extreme groups, i.e., the high and low hazards perceivers it was found that sociodemographics, e.g., gender, marital status, age and working experience possessed no descriptive power. However, the findings revealed that the worker segment prone to perceive high hazards also reported higher degree of burnout, anxiety and depression than did the low hazards perceivers. They (the high hazards perceivers) were also less satisfied with their stay on the platform, and they reported more health problems as well. The findings indicate that hazards perceptions of hazards go beyond mere “cold cognition,” also tapping into negatively feelings and emotional states. Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted.

Notes: This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or “as consumed” condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.

Notes: The combination of radon and smoking produces a synergistic risk of lung cancer. Lay understanding of this risk was examined from the perspectives of mental models theory, the psychometric approach to risk perception, and optimistic bias. As assessed by interview, participants (N= 50) had more extensive mental models for the risks of smoking than for the risks of radon or the combination of radon and smoking; 32% knew little or nothing about radon. Despite reading an informational brochure, their risk-perception ratings of the three hazards showed no perception of the synergy between smoking and radon risk, although the combined hazard was rated as less familiar but more controllable than the average of the single hazards (p 〈 .01). No evidence of optimistic bias for the health consequences of radon, or the combination of radon and smoking was observed. Participants appeared to be combining the single-hazard risks subadditively to arrive at their combined-hazard risk perceptions. Further research on the integration of perceived risks would be beneficial for designing optimal communications about synergistic risk.

Notes: This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.

Notes: Sapphirine, coexisting with quartz, is an indicator mineral for ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism in aluminous rock compositions. Here a new activity-composition model for sapphirine is combined with the internally consistent thermodynamic dataset used by THERMOCALC, for calculations primarily in K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O (KFMASH). A discrepancy between published experimentally derived FMAS grids and our calculations is understood with reference to H2O. Published FMAS grids effectively represent constant aH2O sections, thereby limiting their detailed use for the interpretation of mineral reaction textures in compositions with differing H2O.For the calculated KFMASH univariant reaction grid, sapphirine + quartz assemblages occur at P–T in excess of 6–7 kbar and 1005 °C. Sapphirine compositions and composition ranges are consistent with natural examples. However, as many univariant equilibria are typically not ‘seen’ by a specific bulk composition, the univariant reaction grid may reveal little about the detailed topology of multi-variant equilibria, and therefore is of limited use for interpreting the P–T evolution of mineral assemblages and reaction sequences. Calculated pseudosections, which quantify bulk composition and multi-variant equilibria, predict experimentally determined KFMASH mineral assemblages with consistent topology, and also indicate that sapphirine stabilizes at increasingly higher pressure and temperature as XMg increases. Although coexisting sapphirine and quartz can occur in relatively iron-rich rocks if the bulk chemistry is sufficiently aluminous, the P–T window of stability shrinks with decreasing XMg. An array of mineral assemblages and mineral reaction sequences from natural sapphirine + quartz and other rocks from Enderby Land, Antarctica, are reproducible with calculated pseudosections. That consistent phase diagram calculations involving sapphirine can be performed allows for a more thorough assessment of the metamorphic evolution of high-temperature granulite facies terranes than was previously possible. The establishment of a a-x model for sapphirine provides the basis for expansion to larger, more geologically realistic chemical systems (e.g. involving Fe3+).

Notes: Chemical disequilibrium exists between all phases of the Alpe Arami garnet-peridotite body (Ticino, Switzerland) which hampers the evaluation of P-T conditions of origin, yet disequilibrium offers the inherent possibility to derive a P-T-t path for this mantle slice. We tried to tackle this problem by carrying out new mineral analyses and taking diffusion rates and bulk-rock compositional effects into consideration. Peak metamorphic conditions from mineral core compositions were estimated as 112050C/50.2 GPa. These values are significantly higher than previously published results and were determined from a combination of the O'Neill & Wood (1979) Fe/Mg garnet-olivine exchange thermometer and the Al-in-orthopyroxene barometer (Brey & Köhler, 1990), and are supported by the Ca/Cr ratios in garnet, which are in accord with these conditions. Details of the exhumation path were derived from (1) rim compositions of minerals that yield a first retrograde stage of 720 50C/2 0.25 GPa (2) a spinel lherzolite assemblage in narrow shear zones (tectonic phase F0″, after Möckel, 1969) which documents a second retrograde stage at 500–600C/0.8-l.5 GPa. The Ca content in olivine (Köhler & Brey, 1989) can be used to evaluate further P-T conditions along the retrograde path. We measured very low values (30–40 ppm Ca) in the cores of olivine and a remarkable increase towards the rim (120 ppm). The low core values may reflect an equilibrium stage during the main Alpine metamorphism. The increasing values towards the olivine rims probably represent a late-stage heating event. The initial cooling rates for the peridotite body are between 2700 and 5100C Ma-1, depending on which diffusion data are used.

Notes: Declines in native plant and animal communities have prompted new interest in the restoration of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Past restoration activities typically have been site specific, with little thought to processes operating at larger scales. A watershed analysis process developed in the Pacific northwest identifies four operating scales useful in developing restoration priorities: region, basin, water-shed, and specific site. Wtershed analysis provides a template for restoration practitioners to use in prioritizing restoration activities. The template identifies seven key steps necessary to understand and develop restoration priorities: (1) characterization, (2) identification of key issues and questions, (3) documentation of current conditions, (4) description of reference conditions, (5) identification of objectives, (6) summary of conditions and determination of causes, and (7) recommendations. When a similar process was used in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, and in the Sluslaw National Forest, Orgon, specialists were able to identify key habitat conditions and habitat forming processes and then to establish restoration priorities and implement the appropriate activities. Watershed analysis provides a valuable set of tools for identifying restoration activities and is currently being used throughout the Pacific Northwest to develop management strategies and restoration priorities. Although the analysis requires significant time, money, and personnel, experience suggests that watershed analysis provides valuable direction for managing aquatic and riparian resources.

Notes: Landscape ecology focuses on questions typically addressed over broad spatial scales. A landscape approach embraces spatial heterogeneity, consisting of a number of ecosystems and/or landscape structures of different types, as a central theme. Such studies may aid restoration efforts in a variety of ways, including (1) provision of better guidance for selecting reference sites and establishing project goals and (2) suggestions for appropriate spatial configurations of restored elements to facilitate recruitment of flora/fauna. Likewise, restoration efforts may assist landscape–level studies, given that restored habitats, possessing various patch arrangements or being established among landscapes of varying diversity and conditions of human alteration, can provide extraordinary opportunities for experimentation over a large spatial scale. Restoration studies can facilitate the rate of information gathering for expected changes in natural landscapes for which introduction of landscape elements may be relatively slow. Moreover, data collected from restoration studies can assist in validation of dynamic models of current interest in landscape ecology. We suggest that restoration and landscape ecology have an unexplored mutualistic relationship that could enhance research and application of both disciplines.

Notes: Restoration ecologists use reference information to define restoration goals, determine the restoration potential of sites, and evaluate the success of restoration efforts. Basic to the selection and use of reference information is the need to understand temporal and spatial variation in nature. This is a challenging task: variation is likely to be scale dependent; ecosystems vary in complex ways at several spatial and temporal scales; and there is an important interaction between spatial and temporal variation. The two most common forms of reference information are historical data from the site to be restored and contemporary data from reference sites (sites chosen as good analogs of the site to be restored). Among the problems of historical data are unmeasured factors that confound the interpretation of historical changes observed. Among the problems of individual reference sites is the difficulty of finding or proving a close match in all relevant ecological dimensions. Approximating and understanding ecological variation will require multiple sources of information. Restoration, by its inherently experimental nature, can further the understanding of the distribution, causes, and functions of nature's variation.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Water Quality: Management of a Natural Resource James Perry and Elizabeth Vanderklein

Notes: The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation created a shallow, 110-m channel to provide habitat for two endangered fishes, Cyprinodon elegans (Comanche Springs pupfish) and Gambusia nobilis (Pecos gambusia), at the site of the fishes' former natural habitat. The ciénega (marsh) associated with Phantom Lake Spring in Jeff Davis County, Texas, was destroyed by the creation of an irrigation canal system. In 1993, the endangered fishes were stocked into the refuge with individuals from the irrigation canals, and in the case of C. elegans, hatchery stocks. The condition of habitat, status of fish populations, and fish ecology within the refuge were then monitored for two years. The abundance and density of both species increased in accordance with aquatic plant development. Cyprinodon elegans abundance peaked after one year and stabilized at an average density of 14.7/m2 by the end of our study. Juvenile C. elegans were always rare, which may indicate that the population reached the refuge's carrying capacity and that recruitment is low. Gambusia nobilis was the most abundant fish in the refuge (average density 96/m2), used the entire refuge, and outcom-peted nonindigenous G. geiseri. The two Gambusia species used similar habitats but showed almost no dietary overlap. High densities of aquatic plants reduced the amount of open water areas necessary for C. elegans. The refuge will sustain the two endangered fishes at this historic site of endemism while maintaining flow to the irrigation system; however, the refuge is not equivalent to a restored ciénega.

Notes: No guidelines are currently available that advise which soil properties of arable land can be used to suggest suitable locations for heathland reconstruction. This paper reviews studies comparing soil properties of heathland or semi-natural grassland with those of adjacent arable fields, investigations in the autecology of the dominant heathland plant, Calluna vulgaris (common heather), and long-term experiments of fertilizer inputs on arable soils. Three properties must be assessed before the suitability of a field can be determined: extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH. A number of other nutrients may also be important, but evidence is currently insufficient to substantiate this. Natural changes in levels of extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH appear to be very slow, so nutrient stripping and acidification will be necessary where recommended levels are exceeded to successfully restore heathland vegetation.

Notes: Ants are widely used as bioindicators in Australian land assessment and monitoring programs, particularly in relation to ecosystem restoration following mining. Little is known, however, about the relationship between ant community development and key ecological processes such as nutrient cycling. We have examined the relationship between ant species richness and soil microbial biomass at 17 sites subject to disturbance by mining in the Kakadu region of Australia's Northern Territory. The number of ant species recorded ranged from 7 at an unvegetated site undergoing restoration to 43 at a site that was undisturbed except for edge effects. Soil microbial biomass ranged from 19.3 to 134.3 μgC/g. Ant species richness was positively correlated with soil microbial biomass (r= 0.638), more so than was plant species richness (r= 0.342 for total plant species, r= 0.499 for woody species only). Our findings demonstrate a correlation between aboveground ant activity and belowground decomposition processes at disturbed sites, thereby providing support for the use of ants as indicators of restoration success following disturbance. Interestingly, when a range of undisturbed sites in the region was considered, a negative rather than positive relationship between ant richness and soil microbial biomass was found. This illustrates the importance of distinguishing between variation within a habitat due to disturbance and variation across different habitats when searching for indicators of ecological change.

Notes: Bottomland hardwood forests in the southcentral United States have been cleared extensively for agriculture, and many of the remaining forests are fragmented and degraded. During the last decade, however, approximately 75,000 ha of land—mainly agricultural fields—have been replanted or contracted for replanting, with many more acres likely to be reforested in the near future. The approach used in most reforestation projects to date has been to plant one to three overstory tree species, usually Quercus spp. (oaks), and to rely on natural dispersal for the establishment of other woody species. I critique this practice by two means. First, a brief literature review demonstrates that moderately high woody species diversity occurs in natural bottomland hardwood forests in the region. This review, which relates diversity to site characteristics, serves as a basis for comparison with stands established by means of current reforestation practices. Second, I reevaluate data on the invasion of woody species from an earlier study of 10 reforestation projects in Mississippi, with the goal of assessing the likelihood that stands with high woody species diversity will develop. I show that natural invasion cannot always be counted on to produce a diverse stand, particularly on sites more than about 60 m from an existing forest edge. I then make several recommendations for altering current reforestation practices in order to establish stands with greater woody species diversity, a more natural appearance, and a more positive environmental impact at scales larger than individual sites.

Notes: We evaluated the ecological and reproductive characteristics of plant species occurring in severely disturbed areas that were revegetated with exotic grasses. We identified those species with the best combination of attributes that increase their probability of success in degraded lands. Fifteen degraded areas were studied in two different bioclimatic regions, a high premontane humid bioclimate and a low premontane humid bioclimate. The frequency of native colonizing species and the presence of arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization in their roots were evaluated. The sexual and breeding system, pollination mode, fruit set, and dispersal syndrome of ten of the most frequent colonizing species were also studied. The floristic survey of the colonizing species revealed a similarity to the reported flora of the treeless savannas that are dominant in the region. Bioclimatic conditions prevailing in the degraded lands seem to be an important factor for the presence of colonizing species and for species richness. All colonizing species studied were mycorrhizal, and for this reason the restoration program in these degraded areas should take mycorrhizae into account, reintroducing them or manipulating the soils to increase the mycorrhizal inoculum. We suggest Scleria cyperina and Trachypogon plumosus to start or promote the natural succession in the degraded areas from La Gran Sabana. Because their frequency is high and their reproductive system is less dependent on biotic factors, these species stand out in the studied areas.

Notes: Disturbance of coastal sage scrub in southern California has led to extensive displacement of native shrubs by exotic annual grasses. The initial conversion from shrubland to exotic grassland is typically associated with disturbance caused by intense grazing, high fire frequency, or mechanical vegetation removal. While native shrubs have been shown to recolonize annual grasslands under some conditions, other annual grasslands are persistent and show no evidence of shrub recolonization. This study examined the mechanisms by which annual grasses may exclude native shrubs and persist after release from disturbance. Grass density was manipulated in experimental plots to achieve a series of prescribed densities. Artemisia californica, a dominant native shrub, was seeded or planted into the plots and responses to the grass density treatments were measured over two growing seasons. A. californica germination, first season growth, and survival were all negatively related to the density of neighboring annual grasses. The most probable mechanism underlying the reduction of first season growth and survival was depletion of soil water by the grasses. The effects of the grasses on A. californica were no longer significant in the second season. The results of this study indicate that Mediterranean annual grasses reduce recruitment and can persist by inhibiting post-disturbance establishment of A. californica from seed. Although succession alone may not return disturbed annual grasslands to their former shrubland composition, the results suggest that restoration can be achieved by using container plantings or grass removal followed by seeding.

Notes: This study evaluated the genetic consequences of a reintroduction of the endangered annual plant Cordylanthus maritimus ssp. maritimus to Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California). A survey of 21 enzyme loci in natural populations revealed that genetic diversity is very low and is primarily found as rare alleles at a few loci, making this species especially susceptible to the loss of alleles and heterozygosity through genetic drift. The reintroduction was performed in 1991 and 1992 by sowing seeds (collected from Tijuana Estuary) in numerous small patches of suitable habitat. For this study, leaf tissue was collected from all plants in all patches during flowering in 1995 and surveyed for genotype at the three enzyme loci that are polymorphic at Tijuana Estuary. Rare alleles were absent in 27 out of 30 patches for Pgm-1, in 17 out of 30 patches for Pgm-2, and in 10 out of 11 patches for Mdh-1. In all, half of the patches lacked any rare allele. Rare alleles tended to occur in patches with few individuals. Overall rare allele frequency was lower than in the colonies from which seeds were collected at two of the three loci, and heterozygosity was reduced. The Sweetwater Marsh population is at risk of losing most of its genetic variation at enzyme loci through the extinction of patches with few individuals. Future reintroduction attempts should attempt to create contiguous sets of patches or to periodically reseed existing patches to reduce the loss of genetic variation.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Riparian Ecosystem Recovery in Arid Lands: Strategies and References. Mark K. Briggs Land Restoration and Reclamation: Principles and Practice James A. Harris, Paul Birch, and John Palmer

Notes: Effects of waterlogging were studied in the field and under glasshouse conditions on two clonal lines of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh (river red gum), which are used in the rehabilitation of damaged agricultural catchments in Western Australia. The plantation of 9-year-old trees was in a position that covered a range of waterlogging and salinity conditions. Up-slope the water table was deeper (0.65–1.5 m), whereas the water table was closer to the ground surface down-slope (0.45 m in winter; 1.25 m in summer). Salinity was greater downslope and increased at the end of the dry summer, remaining high until diluted by the winter rains. Trees of both clonal lines were smaller downslope and used less water over the year. Clone M80 used more water in winter; clone M66 more in summer. In the field, the roots of clone M80 were evenly distributed through the soil profile, while roots of clone M66 decreased with increasing depth. Production of new root terminals varied with season. Greatest production was in spring and early summer, with much lower production over late autumn and winter. Only clone M66 produced new root terminals at depth (60–75 cm) during the drier months of late summer and early autumn. At this time, saline ground-water was the main source for water uptake. To explore clonal differences more closely, the effects of prolonged waterlogging were studied under glasshouse conditions. Clone M80 grew similarly under freely drained and continuously waterlogged conditions for the experimental period (21 weeks). The response under continuously waterlogged conditions was achieved through adventitious root production. By contrast, growth of clone M66 was suppressed under continuous waterlogging, a response associated with the lack of adventitious root production. The results from field and glasshouse studies suggest that clone M80 is more adapted to waterlogging by relatively fresh water than clone M66, but that clone M66 may use water of higher salinity than clone M80. Clone M80 would be better suited to higher positions in partially cleared catchments, where rainfall provides relatively fresh soil water. Clone M66 is better suited to lower catchment positions due to its ability to utilize more saline groundwater. Restoration of the water balance of damaged agricultural catchments can be best managed by matching specialized genotypes with particular catchment positions.

Notes: I conducted small-mammal trapping surveys on a desert scrub restoration site in Palm Springs, California, to document concomitant recovery of the rodent community. These surveys were conducted following quantitative vegetation sampling efforts that indicated that a predefined successful restoration criterion of 15% total shrub cover had been met throughout most of the area. But shrub cover, native shrub cover, herb cover, native herb cover, total cover, and total native cover remained significantly lower in the restoration area than in undeveloped desert scrub immediately surrounding the site. Native herb species richness was also generally lower in the restoration area. Despite these vegetation differences, rodent diversity, evenness, and abundance were very similar between the restoration and natural areas (they were consistently slightly higher in the restoration area). More diverse microhabitats, proximity to water, and reduced competition with harvester ants may have contributed to this outcome. If ecosystem restoration is the goal, reestablishment of a faunal community in restored habitat, rather than surpassing a predefined percent cover of vegetation, may be a better indicator of success, because plant cover proved to be a poor predictor of mammal success.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: California Rivers and Streams: The Conflict Between Fluvial Processes and Land Use. Jeffery F. Mount Evolution and the Aquatic Ecosystem: Defining Unique Units in Population Conservation. J. L. Nielson, editor

Notes: Closed or abandoned landfills represent significant land areas, often in or near urban centers, that are potential sites for ecological restoration of native woodlands. But current guidelines in many jurisdictions do not allow for the installation of trees or shrubs above landfill clay caps, although these plants have many environmental, functional, and aesthetic advantages, including a rapid start to community succession. Typical closure procedures for capped landfills include only a grass cover to control moisture infiltration and impede soil erosion. The main concern that limits the application of a woody cover to a closed landfill is that roots may penetrate and weaken the clay cap. As part of a comprehensive experimental program on woodland restoration, we installed 22 tree and shrub species on Staten Island, New York (the Fresh Kills Sanitary Landfill). We found no evidence that roots of the transplanted woody plants penetrate caps used on these landfills. Root growth requirements and dynamics stop penetration of these materials. Anoxic and acidic conditions were found in the sandy subsoil above the cap, as indicated by corrosion patterns on steel test rods. Also, the intensity of mycorrhizal infection on the experimental plants was high in the surface soil and decreased progressively with increasing soil depth. The potential vertical rooting depth during this time period was greater than that occurring over the clay cap. This was shown from data collected on a nearby control site, where seven of the species were installed on an engineered soil lacking a clay barrier layer, and roots of all seven species penetrated deeper than on the landfill. The engineered landfill soils are poor growth media for roots, and below ground constraints that limit restoration on these sites must be addressed.

Notes: The Northern Rocky Mountain Wolf Recovery plan proposed reintroduction of Canis lupus (gray wolf) to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho as part of a wolf restoration plan for the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Strong opposition from some factions within the region forestalled the action for two decades. An environmental impact statement, conducted in 1992–1994 with extensive public input, culminated in a proposal to reintroduce wolves designated as “non-essential—experimental” under Section 10 (j) of the federal Endangered Species Act. This approach, approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1994, provided for wolf restoration while allowing management flexibility to deal with concerns of the local public. A reintroduction plan was developed in the summer and fall of 1994. Acquiring, holding, transporting, and releasing suitable wolves for reintroduction presented a myriad of technical and logistical challenges that required effective planning and coordination by all participants. In January 1995, 29 wolves were captured in Alberta and transported to Yellowstone National Park (14) and central Idaho (15). Idaho wolves were freed immediately upon arrival; Yellowstone wolves (three family groups) were held in acclimation pens in the park until late March. Most Idaho wolves traveled extensively within the area intended for them, averaging 82 km net distance away from release sites after 5 months (range = 30–220 km), and three male-female pairs formed by July. After 5 months in the wild, at least 13 of 15 Idaho-released wolves were alive within the intended area, as were 13 of 14 Yellowstone wolves; one wolf was known to have been illegally killed in each area. No livestock were killed. Wolves released into Yellowstone Park continued to live as packs, stayed closer to their release sites (x = 22 km at end of June), and settled into home ranges; two packs produced a total of nine pups. The progress of the reintroduction program in its first year far exceeded expectations. Reintroductions of about 15 wolves to each area for 2–4 more years are scheduled, but the project may be shortened because of early successes. Future reintroduction planners can expect sociocultural issues to pervade the effort, but they can be optimistic that, from a biological standpoint, reintroduction of wolves has strong potential as a restoration technique.

Notes: This paper summarizes the accumulation of nutrient capital during the natural afforestation of iron-smelting slag. The study site was the Beckley Furnace (North Caanan, Connecticut, U.S.A.) slag dump, which was abandoned around 1918. Currently, a Pinus strobus (white pine)-dominated forest occupies the site. Our primary objective was to determine the relationships among stand development and belowground nutrient pools to evaluate controls on the rates at which nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, and potassium accumulate in the developing forest. Along a developmental gradient of increasing stand basal area, we measured (1) aboveground biomass, (2) root biomass, (3) above-ground nutrient capital, (4) belowground nutrient capital, (5) soil weight, (6) soil organic carbon weight, (7) soil moisture, and (8) understory richness and density. Regression analysis suggests, as expected, that the addition of organic matter controls the accumulation of above- and belowground nutrients, soil water, and understory plant composition and distribution. The rather rapid rate of nitrogen accumulation suggests that allochthonous as well as autochthonous organic matter is an important source of nutrients for the developing forest soil and vegetation. Compared to those of other northeastern forests, soils in the most developed areas at the Beckley site have accumulated more than enough labile nutrient capital in 75 years to support a forest typical of the region. In the most developed stands, understory composition indicates mesic soil conditions, and that within the next 75 years or so the Beckley slag dump will be floristically very similar to the surrounding forest.

Notes: Extensive land loss, which is mostly wetland loss, has taken place during this century in the Mississippi River delta and other river deltas. Our purpose was to evaluate the effectiveness of constructing “artificial” crevasses, or cuts in the natural levee, made by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Delta National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) to slow or reverse this type of land loss. Land growth of the crevasses was determined from aerial photographs and was related to crevasse-site characteristics. The newly constructed crevasses create emergent wetlands after 2 years of subaqueous growth at about 4.7 ha/year and an average cost of $21,377 per crevasse. The present total cost per hectare declines with age as new land builds, and it will equal $48 per hectare if all the open water in the receiving ponds fills in. At these rates, the net land loss rates in the DNWR measured from 1958 to 1978 would be compensated for by the building of 63 crevasses, 24 of which are already in place.

Notes: During the last two decades Chlamydotis undulata (houbara bustard) has declined drastically throughout its range, due primarily to over-hunting and severe habitat degradation. The threatened extinction of local populations led the National Commission for Wildlife Conservation and Development of Saudi Arabia to implement ex- and in-situ conservation measures: (1) a captive breeding program initiated in 1986, which achieved production of a self-sustaining breeding flock as well as a surplus for reintroduction by 1992; (2) establishment of a 13,775-km2 protected area around the last known breeding population in Saudi Arabia; (3) studies of wild birds, to determine densities, feeding ecology, and habitat requirements; and (4) studies on different release techniques (adult releases, sub-adult releases, feather-cut sub-adult releases, and covey releases), carried out since 1991 within the 2,300-km2 fenced and protected area of the Mahazat as-Sayd reserve.

Notes: The unique marine ecosystems of coral reefs express varying levels of degradation as a result of increasing anthropogenic pressures. This is the main reason why more than 200 coral reef localities were proclaimed as natural reserves or marine parks under varying legislation, rules, and monitoring and management programs. Ironically, the conventional management plans increased accessibility to many reef localities and enhanced dramatically the impact of tourism on reef habitats. Recreational activities including SCUBA and skin diving, fishing, human trampling, sediment re-suspension, and other damage caused by “innocent” visitors are causing a rapid deterioration of many reefs. Their destruction requires years and decades for full recovery. I propose to rehabilitate such damaged habitats by the alternate strategy of “gardening coral reefs” with asexual and sexual recruits. Coral branches, colony fragments, and whole small colonies (asexual recruits) and laboratory or in situ settled planula-larvae (sexual recruits) are designed to be transplanted into denuded reefs for restoration. This approach is further improved when the sexual and asexual recruits are maricultured in situ within special protected areas, before being transplanted. The use of sexual recruits ensures an increase in genetic diversity. I discuss several methodologies and results already accumulated showing the applicability of this gardening strategy for rehabilitation of denuded coral reefs. This restoration strategy should be integrated with proper management similar to that of already established reforestation in terrestrial habitats. The best candidates for employing this strategy are the fast-growing coral species, usually branching forms and species that brood their planulae larvae.

Notes: Large areas of North American prairie have been planted with grasses introduced from Eurasia. We examined three strategies (herbicide, tilling, and nitrogen manipulation) for enhancing the establishment of seedlings of native species and suppressing the introduced grasses Agropyron cristatum (crested wheat grass) and Bromus inermis (smooth brome). Plots (5 × 15 m) were subjected to one of three levels of tilling (none, intermediate, complete) and four levels of nitrogen (none, intermediate, high, and sawdust added to immobilize nitrogen). Treatments were applied in a factorial design with twelve treatments and ten replicates. Seeds of 41 native species were drilled into the plots in May 1992. Following the failure of seeds to establish in 1992, a subplot (5 × 13 m) within each main plot was sprayed with the herbicide glyphosate in April 1993. The nitrogen treatments were repeated in Spring 1993. In August 1993, the density of native seedlings in sprayed subplots was 20 times that in unsprayed subplots. Within sprayed subplots, native seedling density and the cover of bare ground decreased significantly with increasing nitrogen availability. Plots receiving sawdust had significantly higher mean cover of bare ground and significantly lower concentrations of soil available nitrogen. Native seedling density was significantly higher in plots receiving the highest intensity of tilling. The responses of native seedlings to all these factors point to the importance of neighbor-free establishment sites as a prerequisite for prairie restoration.

Notes: At least 43 agriculture fields were built in south Louisiana wetlands between 1900 and 1920 using pumps and levees. All but one project is now abandoned as a result of soil subsidence, financial difficulties, or multiple levee failures. Some are now in flood-protected urban zones, and the remainder are mostly open water. The total area of abandoned agricultural fields in 1990 is large (〉 80,000 ha), and their levees continue to deteriorate naturally. Ten failed or abandoned coastal agricultural impoundments (22,680 ha) were examined to determine recent wetland restoration or regression rates from 1978 to 1988. Wetland area and levee length were determined from aerial photography for 1978,1983,1985, and 1988. Average wetland change rates for all areas ranged from −4.28 to +2.54% per year from 1978 to 1988. One site gained wetland area between 1978 and 1988 (77 ha/yr), and four sites gained wetland area between 1985 and 1988 (range 14–439 ha/yr). Wetland area in the other sites either remained stable or declined during the study period. The results from a multiple regression model indicate that restoration is inversely related to impoundment size and directly related to levee reduction. Results from a multiple regression model indicate that active levee removal will probably enhance wetland restoration rates at a very favorable cost (〈 $1/ha) and will be sustainable with little additional management.

Notes: Interest in using native grass species for restoration is increasing, yet little is known about the ecology and genetics of native grass populations or the spatial scales over which seed can be transferred and successfully grown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the genetic structure within and among populations of Elymus glaucus in order to make some preliminary recommendations for the transfer and use of this species in revegetation and restoration projects. Twenty populations from California, Oregon, and Washington were analyzed for allozyme genotype at 20 loci, and patterns of variation within and among populations were determined. Allozyme variation at the species level was high, with 80% of the loci polymorphic and an average expected heterozygosity (an index of genetic diversity) of 0.194. All but two of the populations showed some level of polymorphism. A high degree of population differentiation was found, with 54.9% of the variation at allozyme loci partitioned among populations (Fst= 0.549). A lesser degree of genetic differentiation among closely spaced subpopulations within one of the populations was also demonstrated (Fst= 0.124). Self-pollination and the patchy natural distribution of the species both likely contribute to the low level of gene flow (Nm= 0.205) that was estimated. Zones developed for the transfer of seed of commercial conifer species may be inappropriate for transfer of E. glaucus germplasm because conifer species are characterized by high levels of gene flow. Limited gene flow in E. glaucus can facilitate the divergence of populations over relatively small spatial scales. This genetic differentiation can be due to random genetic drift, localized selective pressures, or both. In order to minimize the chances of planting poorly adapted germplasm, seed of E. glaucus may need to be collected in close proximity to the proposed restoration site.

Notes: The restoration of the high botanical diversity of the premining jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest is a major priority of rehabilitation following bauxite mining in southwestern Australia. This study investigated the effects of different ripping, seeding, and scarifying dates on the establishment of plants from propagules stored in the topsoil and from applied seed on areas being rehabilitated after mining. Seed stored in the topsoil, rather than applied seed, was the major contributor to plant diversity. Ripping late (April) or scarifying in June significantly reduced the number of species and numbers of individual plants that established from propagules in the topsoil. Species originating from broadcast seed were most numerous when the seed was broadcast in April or after scarifying in June. Scarifying before seeding, particularly in June, increased the establishment of species from the broadcast seed. To make best use of the applied seed, without jeopardizing the establishment of species from the topsoil, pits should be ripped and sown by April. We list a number of strategies that can help maximize plant numbers and botanical diversity on rehabilitated bauxite mines, which may also be of more general application for restoring the original native vegetation on disturbed sites.

Notes: Annual legumes are often used as nurse plants for restoration projects, but two commonly used legume species were competitors at all densities with Artemisia californica (California sagebrush), a dominant shrub of southern California coastal sage scrub. Survival of Artemisia was not reduced by the lowest densities of the native Lupinus succulentus (arroyo lupine) at ratios of Artemisia to Lupinus of 1:1 or 1:3 or by the exotic Trifolium hirtum (rose clover) at the 1:1 density, but its survival was as low as 4% at the highest densities of Trifolium (1:16) and 1:32). Overall, Trifolium was more detrimental to survival of Artemisia, but the biomass of Artemisia was reduced by 90% or more in mixtures with both legumes even at the lowest densities of 1:1. The total soil nitrogen either did not change or decreased in two of the mixtures between planting and harvest dates, indicating that the legumes not only did not add nitrogen to the soil within one growing season but even depleted it in these two cases. Whereas Lupinus had greater aboveground bio-mass than Trifolium, it had a lower root density than Trifolium. The Artemisia root system was more shallow than either Trifolium or Lupinus, possibly explaining the poor growth of Artemisia in mixtures, The legumes were one to two orders of magnitude greater in aboveground biomass than Artemisia at the 1:1 ratio and therefore may be inappropriate choices as nurse plants. There is no evidence from this study that either of these legumes can act as nurse plants, even at the lowest ratio of one nurse plant to on shrub. Nurse plants are probably more important in harsher environments than in coastal sage scrub.

Notes: Over the last 150 years butterflies have declined rapidly in both distribution and abundance in Britain. The majority of species declines can be linked with widespread habitat destruction that has occurred over the same period. The resulting concern for their conservation has provided many examples of attempts at restoration, most of which have been unsuccessful. The most common reasons for failure appear to be unsuitability of the habitat or lack of knowledge of the species' requirements, but in many cases the recording of the attempt is inadequate for any assessment to be made. Case studies of recent restoration efforts for four butterfly species are used to illustrate that successful restoration depends on detailed study of the species1 ecology and–particularly–habitat requirements, the ability and the resources to manage the habitat to provide those requirements, and a formal scientific approach that maximizes the information gained from the restoration process. As more land in Britain is taken out of intensive agricultural use, opportunities will increase for restoration programs. Prominent and popular species indicative of particular habitats can act as a focus for restoration of the habitat as a whole.

Notes: The role of tree plantations as facilitators of tropical forest restoration in degraded lands has been explored recently, but there are few data on the effect of different tree species on invasion of the plant understory. We evaluated early patterns of understory composition in three-year-old native tree plantations in lowland Costa Rica using two pure-species treatment (Jacaranda copaia and Vochysia guatemalensis) and one mixed-species treatment (J. copaia, V. guatemalensis, Stryphnodendron microstachyum, and Calophyllum brasiliense). We also monitored woody invasion in unplanted control areas dominated by grasses. The understory of the different plantation treatments differed in light environment, woody-plant growth and recruitment, and quantity and quality of woody regeneration. Forest tree invasion appeared to be enhanced under Vochysia, while shrubs were more abundant under the Jacaranda and mixed-species treatments. Woody plant growth, herbaceous cover, and understory light availability were highest under Jacaranda, intermediate under mixed species, and lowest under Vochysia. Soil-stored seeds seemed an important source for woody plant recruitment in Jacaranda and mixed species and of minimal importance under Vochysia, probably due to light suppression. It appears that competition from grasses is a major factor influencing early woody invasion in our study area. We found no woody recruitment after one year in the unplanted controls. We suggest that to promote the use of plantations as tools of forest restoration, there is a need to gather basic ecological information on how different tree species may influence patterns of plant understory colonization.

Notes: Prescribed burns are increasingly being used in ecological restoration and vegetation management. Despite the accumulation of scientific information on fire behavior and fire effects, however, in many cases fires are prescribed without consideration of such information and often simply because of evidence of past fires. Rather than basing fire management plans on ideas of the historical “natural” occurrence of fire, we present the case for fire management being based on the fire effects desired. Effective fire management and development of proper fire prescriptions require an understanding of fire processes and heat transfer that explain fire behavior characteristics, as well as an understanding of how fire behavior is coupled to specific fire effects. We provide a basic introduction to these concepts and processes, which will help in understanding the importance of having a more technical understanding of fire. The discussion includes the processes of heat transfer and the relative role of various fuel variables in these processes, as well as the concepts of fire intensity, rate of spread, fuel consumption, duff consumption, fire frequency, and the ecological effects associated with variation in these characteristics of fire behavior.

Notes: Restoration ecologists are increasingly aware of the potential to re-create chalk grassland on abandoned farmland. Success is often hampered by lack of desirable species in the seed bank and by poor dispersal from nearby sites. In certain schemes, the input of seed may be essential. Locally collected seed is desirable but availability is limited. We examined whether lower sowing rates than currently recommended may be successfully utilized, facilitating more-efficient use of available seed. Experimental plots on former agricultural land were sown at different rates in a randomized complete block, and the vegetation was surveyed for two years. We compared species richness and cover for chalk grassland plants and weeds - species not associated with chalk grassland communities. Values for cover and abundance were matched with data for communities of the British National Vegetation Classification (NVC). Species richness for chalk grassland plants increased with sowing rate and with time, although after two years there was no significant difference between the treatments sown at 0.4, 1.0, and 4.0 grams of seed per square meter. Weed species decreased with increasing rate and time. After two seasons, the vegetation on all treatment plots was similar to that of recognized NVC chalk grassland communities, while the controls were dominated by weeds and showed signs of developing into species-poor grassland. Higher rates rapidly eliminated weeds, but even a small inoculum of seed seemed to significantly enhance establishment of desirable plants and to reduce weed cover. We conclude that lower sowing rates would enable the desired vegetation to become established successfully, under appropriate conditions and management regimes. Lower rates allow for the re-creation of sizable areas using local seed, and they minimize damage to donor sites.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Ecology of Greenways — Design and Function of Linear Conservation Areas. Daniel S. Smith and Paul Cawood Hellmund, editors Reconstruction of Fragmented Ecosystems: Global and Regional Perspectives. D. Saunders, R. Hobbs, and P. Ehrlich, editors Defining Sustainable Forests G. H. Aplet, N. Johnson, J. T. Olson, and V. A. Sample, editors

Notes: Seed bank experiments are described to assess the species richness potential of coal slurry ponds reclaimed as wetlands (ranging from 6 to more than 40 years old). Experimental treatments test the drawdown and flooded conditions characteristic of the vegetation dynamics of emergent wetlands in the Upper Mississippi Valley. More seedlings, primarily annuals, emerged from exposed wet sediments (freely drained) than under continuous flooded sediments in cold ponds (339 versus 136 seedlings m−2, respectively) and in natural ponds (163 versus 47, respectively). More seeds were produced by plants established in freely drained conditions than under flooded conditions from sediments in the coal ponds (26546 versus 1842 seeds m−2, respectively) and the natural ponds (28430 versus 4526, respectively). Similarly, more biomass was also produced by these plants in freely drained than under flooded conditions in coal ponds (118 versus 47 g m−2, respectively) and natural ponds (118 versus 52, respectively). Fertilization (NPK) did not affect germination for the most part, but it did affect seed set and biomass production, especially for C4 annuals such as Echinochloa crusgalli and Panicum dichotomiflorum. I propose that lime (calcium carbonate) and fertilizer be applied during the first few scheduled drawdowns for these coal slurry ponds reclaimed as wetlands to increase the number of species and to allow their more rapid development as self-sustaining systems.

Notes: Efforts to restore fish communities of the Kissimmee River will require carefully defined criteria for assessing success. A goal of regaining communities mirroring those in the historical river may not be an appropriate target because the ecological conditions of the river before channelization are poorly known. The Kissimmee River is in a biogeographic region historically low in fish diversity, and no comparable rivers in that region remain substantially unaltered by human activity to permit their use as reference sites indicative of conditions in the Kissimmee before channelization. I propose alternative criteria for assessing restoration success emphasizing expectations for ecosystem function in similar floodplain rivers. Assessing ecosystem function will be less simple than assessing criteria such as fish condition or density of selected species. But criteria based solely on fish-population characteristics cannot be justified quantitatively. Information integrated from several levels of biotic organization (individuals, populations, communities, and systems) should be drawn upon in making conclusions about restoration success. I develop a conceptual model to outline aspects of ecosystem function that could serve as a basis for evaluation of the restoration of fish communities of the Kissimmee River. The model focuses on the dynamics of the flux of floodplain-channel nutrients and the movement of larvae, juvenile, and adult fishes and macroinvertebrates. The present community may be dominated more by species tolerant of low-oxygen conditions, such as gar and bowfin, than the restored community will be. I propose that nest sites may be the limiting recruitment success of substrate spawning species in the channelized river and that these species, including sunfish and large-mouth bass, will increase in abundance after restoration. Also, species relying on floodplain habitats, including sun-fish species, darters, and some minnows, may also increase in frequency with restoration of floodplain-channel hydro-logical conditions and habitats. The observation that no species are known to have disappeared from the Kissimmee River, and its relatively simple community structure compared to rivers of comparable size elsewhere, are encouraging for prospects of successful restoration.

Notes: Restoration of the Kissimmee River and floodplain ultimately will involve restoring 70 km of river channel and riparian zone and 11,000 ha of wetland over a period of two decades. Restoring ecosystem integrity is a crucial goal of the project, and the evaluation program is designed to assess the success of this endeavor. Major components of the riverine and floodplain ecosystem will be evaluated, guided by conceptual models of their structure and function. These studies will be referenced to historic conditions of the past and to present-day conditions in the channelized system. Enhanced connectivity and interactions between the river and floodplain, the interplay of abiotic and biotic variables, and interactions between trophic levels will restructure the channelized river and the largely drained floodplain that now exist. The key to evaluating the success of this ambitious project will be selecting measurements of the structure and function of the river and floodplain ecosystems that are responsive to this large-scale manipulation. The timing and duration of floodplain inundation, improved dissolved oxygen conditions, germination and establishment of wetland vegetation, and enhancement and expansion of rheophilic benthic invertebrate populations are critical initial elements of restoration. Further expected outcomes are an increase in the primary productivity of the ecosystem, expansion of the fish community into the reopened channels and onto the reflooded floodplain, and improved visitation and use by waterbirds in the restored regions. We highlight predictions of some of these key linkages and primary structural and functional attributes of the restored river and floodplain that should be measured.

Notes: Beach nourishment is an engineering solution to erosion of beaches. As in any restoration project, the goals of beach nourishment are the restoration of habitat to promote survival of plants and animals and to maintain aesthetically pleasing sites for humans. Unfortunately, beach nourishment sometimes alters parameters of the natural beach, decreasing the reproductive success of sea turtles. Engineers have recognized this problem and are working to improve nourishment practices. Biologists must specify problems incurred by sea turtles as a result of beach nourishment so that they may be addressed. A review of the literature on sea turtles and beach nourishment found certain problems repeatedly identified. For nesting females, characteristics induced by nourishment can cause (1) beach compaction, which can decrease nesting success, alter nest-chamber geometry, and alter nest concealment, and (2) escarpments, which can block turtles from reaching nesting areas. For eggs and hatchlings, nourishment can decrease survivorship and affect development by altering beach characteristics such as sand compaction, gaseous environment, hydric environment, contaminant levels, nutrient availability, and thermal environment. Also, nests can be covered with excess sand if nourishment is implemented in areas with incubating eggs. The extent and implication of each problem are discussed, and future research initiatives are proposed.

Notes: We investigated the role of artificially introduced Panicum virgatum (switch grass) on the sequential natural revegetation of 15- and 35-year-old tailings in the Adirondack region of northern New York. Switch grass covered approximately 48% of the 15-year-old Chaumont Tailings. Establishment of switch-grass stands improved the fertility of the site by adding organic matter, raising pH, and elevating cation exchange capacity and concentrations of major nutrients (N, P, and K). Switch-grass stands also aided the initial recruitment of such pioneer species as Populus spp. (aspens), Salix spp. (willows), and Betula spp. (birches). This facilitation of recruitment of woody species is explained as follows: (1) robust switch-grass stands physically captured the wind-disseminated seeds of these species; (2) switch grass acted as a “nurse crop” for these species, thus these species were able to increase their density vigorously through root or stem sprouting; (3) a combination of both. Switch grass decreased its cover (14%), however, as observed in the 35-year-old South Tailings. As switch grass declined, such vigorous “root-suckering” species as aspens increased in dominance, followed by the invasion of Prunus pensylvanica (pin cherry).

Notes: The purpose of this study was to clarify the effect of grazing exclosures on the recovery and rehabilitation of overgrazed steppe vegetation on varying slope aspects in the Loess Plateau of northwest China. The annual precipitation in the area studied was 400–480 mm. Soil samples were taken on nine slopes in the five-year exclosure and on five slopes outside the exclosure after a vegetation survey; they were then analyzed chemically. Mean number of species recorded per 0.25 m2 was lower on the south-facing slope than all other slopes. The reverse trend was observed for aerial biomass. Species diversity estimated by information content was higher in the grazing zone than in a 3200-ha protected zone within an exclosure. From species ordination by principal component analysis, species with lower coverage in the grazing zone were Poa sphondylodes, Roegneria purpurascens, Hierochloe odorata, and Potentilla bifurca, which are all recognized as indicator species for rehabilitation efforts. In the soil surface layer, calcium contents were low, and the total contents of carbon and nitrogen were high on the north-facing slope in the exclosure. The protection by exclosure of overgrazed steppe was seen to be effective because the accumulation of soil organic matter increased and water balance improved.

Notes: Theoretical work on population viability and extinction probabilities, empirical data from Canis lupus (gray wolf) populations, and expert opinion provide only general and conflicting conclusions about the number of wolves and the size of areas needed for conservation of wolf populations. There is no threshold population size or proven reserve design that guarantees long-term (century or more) survival for a gray wolf population. Most theoretical analyses of population viability have assumed a single, isolated population and lack of management intervention, neither of which is likely for wolves. Data on survival of actual wolf populations suggest greater resiliency than is indicated by theory. In our view, the previous theoretical treatments of population viability have not been appropriate to wolves, have contributed little to their conservation, and have created unnecessary dilemmas for wolf recovery programs by overstating the required population size. Nonetheless, viability as commonly understood may be problematic for small populations at the fringe of or outside the contiguous species range, unless they are part of a metapopulation. The capability of existing nature reserves to support viable wolf populations appears related to a variety of in situ circumstances, including size, shape and topography of the reserve; productivity, numbers, dispersion, and seasonal movement of prey; extent of poaching inside; degree of persecution outside; exposure to enzootica; attitudes of local people; and proximity to other wolf populations. We estimate that a population of 100 or more wolves and a reserve of several thousand square kilometers may be necessary to maintain a viable population in complete isolation, although 3000 km2 or even 500–1000 km2 may be adequate under favorable circumstances. In most cases, management intervention is probably necessary to assure the viability of relatively small, isolated populations. Because most reserves may be inadequate by themselves to ensure the long-term survival of wolf populations, favorable human attitudes toward the species and its management must be recognized as paramount, and cooperation of neighboring management jurisdictions will be increasingly important.

Notes: Dieout of Ammophila breviligulata— death of the major dune-stabilizing plants — has been observed along the north and mid-Atlantic coast of the United States for the past decade and a half. Pathogenic nematodes have been identified as the probable causal agents; they can bring about a complete dieout of sand dune vegetation, with Ammophila breviligulata being the first species to die. Typically, such an area would remain barren for up to five years before plants could be successfully introduced. Applications of fertilizer and dolomitic limestone were tested in the field as a possible management strategy to alleviate the vulnerability of a denuded dune to erosion by making it possible to plant such a site earlier than usual. These applications were also tested in an area of weakened and dying plants to determine if the vegetation could be saved before complete dieout occurred. By creating soil conditions conducive to vigorous plant growth, it was hypothesized that the plants could better withstand the stress of nematode attack. The addition of N-P-K macronutrient fertilizer resulted in increased growth and spread of plants introduced into a site where the grass had been dead for only one to two years. Results indicate that application of fertilizer would be necessary only every other year at most. Micronutrient application, at the concentration used in this study, had little or a somewhat detrimental effect. The addition of dolomitic limestone increased the survival of newly introduced plants. It was also found that the application of macronutrients to a site of moribund vegetation could not only rescue the plants in that site, but could also increase their growth, vigor, and spread, thereby preventing further loss of plant cover essential to dune stabilization.

Notes: Our objectives were to evaluate the use of microcatchments in the establishment of Leucaena retusa (little-leaf leadtree) and Atriplex canescens (four-wing saltbush) and their role in the initiation of autogenic landscape restoration processes on a shallow semiarid site. Three six-month-old seedlings of either Leucaena retusa or Atriplex canescens were planted in 1.5-m2 microcatchments. An equal number of seedlings was planted in control plots (unmodified soil surface). The water collection effects on shrub survival, standing biomass, and the natural immigration of herbaceous vegetation were determined over 42 months. Planting in microcatchment basins doubled Leucaena seedling survival and resulted in a five-fold increase in standing biomass, compared to the control, during the first growing season. There was a significant increase in soil organic matter in the microcatchment basins within 32 months. At the same time, microcatchments planted with Atriplex canescens seedlings had a ten-fold increase in seedling standing biomass compared to the control. Forty-two months after transplanting, the herbaceous standing crop was significantly greater near Atriplex canescens or in microcatchment basins than in plots with unmodified surface soil. Basins containing Atriplex produced significantly more herbaceous vegetation than basins containing Leucaena, and empty basins produced the least herbaceous vegetation of three basin treatments. These data suggest that landscape-scale procedures that concentrate scarce resources (water, organic matter, nutrients, and propagules), establish keystone species, and ameliorate microenvironmental conditions can initiate autogenic restoration of degraded semiarid ecosystems.

Notes: Environmental Effects of Mining Earle A. Ripley, Robert E. Redmann, and Adele A. Crowder. Managing Habitats for Conservation William J. Sutherland and David A. Hill, editors. The Ecology of Woodland Creation Richard Ferris-Kuan, editor.

Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.

Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.

Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.

Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.

Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.

Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.

Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.

Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.

Notes: Monte Carlo methods in risk assessment are finding increasingly widespread application. With the recognition that inputs may be correlated, the incorporation of such correlations into the simulation has become important. Most implementations rely upon the method of Iman and Conover for generating correlated random variables. In this work, alternative methods using copulas are presented for deriving correlated random variables. It is further shown that the particular algorithm or assumption used may have a substantial effect on the output results, due to differences in higher order bivariate moments.

Notes: In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include : guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.

Notes: It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual “trust” effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Notes: The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD, values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECSQ database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD, values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mgadministered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Notes: This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters andparameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:〈list xml:id="l2" style="custom"〉•Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per bodyweight)•Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate•General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilutionvia Distribution Volume (e.g., intial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)•Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)•Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration•Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)•Functional Reserve Capacity-Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process-differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimatingeffective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants thatare thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

Notes: Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.

Notes: The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristicsof those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for agiven constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions providedinformation beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).

Notes: Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives.A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.

Notes: The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.

Notes: This paper describes the application of two multimedia models, PRESTO and MMSOILS, to predict contaminant migration from a landfill that contains an organic chemical (methylene chloride) and a radionuclide (uranium-238). Exposure point concentrations and human health risks are predicted, and distributions of those predictions are generated using Monte Carlo techniques. Analysis of exposure point concentrations shows that predictions of uranium-238 in groundwater differ by more than one order of magnitude between models. These differences occur mainly because PRESTO simulates uranium-238 transport through the groundwater using a one-dimensional algorithm and vertically mixes the plume over an effective mixing depth, whereas MMSOILS uses a three-dimensional algorithm and simulates a plume that resides near the surface of the aquifer.A sensitivity analysis, using stepwise multiple linear regression, is performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of exposure point concentrations and health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. Simple regression techniques are applied, for comparison, to the same scenarios, and results are similar. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints.

Notes: A sample of 323 residents of New Jersey stratified by neighborhood quality (excellent, good, fair, poor) was gathered to determine if trust in science and technology to protect public health and environment at the societal scale was associated with trust of the local officials, such as the mayor, health officer, developers, mass media, and legislators who are guardians of the local environment. Societal (trust of science and technology) and neighborhood (mayor, health officer) dimensions of trust were found. These societal and neighborhood trust dimen-sions were weakly correlated. Respondents were divided into four trust-of-authority groups: high societal-high neighborhood, low societal-low neighborhood, high societal-low neigh-borhood, and low societal-high neighborhood. High societal-high neighborhood trust re-spondents were older, had lived in the neighborhoods for many years, were not troubled much by neighborhood or societal environmental threats, and had a strong sense of control over their environment. In strong contrast, low societal-low neighborhood trust respondents were relatively young, typically had lived in their present neighborhood for a short time, were troubled by numerous neighborhood and societal environmental threats, did not practice many personal public health practices, and felt little control over their environment.