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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
  • 2010-2014  (154)
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  • 1
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    Volcanic ash retrieval from IR multispectral measurements by means of Neural Networks (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-18
    Description: The lesson learned from the recent Icelandic Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption is the need to obtain accurate near real time retrievals in order to sample the phenomenon evolution. In particular, because of the harming effects of fine volcanic ash particles on aircrafts, the real time tracking of volcanic clouds is a key issue for aviation safety. The current mostly utilized procedure for the ash retrievals is based on the Brightness Temperature Difference (BTD) algorithm, using the 11 and 12 micron channels measurements and radiative transfer model computation. This latter requires many input parameters and is time consuming, preventing the utilization during the crisis phases. In this work a fast and accurate Neural Network (NN) approach has been developed to detect and retrieve volcanic ash cloud properties using multispectral IR measurements. The exploited data come from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) acquired over Mt. Etna volcano during the 2001, 2002 and 2006 eruptive events. The procedure consists in two separate steps that uses the three MODIS channels 28, 31 and 32: the detection and the ash retrievals. The detection is reduced to a classification problem. In this context several classes can be individuated, such as free sea surface, meteorological clouds, and ash plume. To maintain the solution of the problem as easy as possible we have simplified the scenario identifying only two classes on the MODIS images: 'ash' and 'no ash' pixels. This approach is coherent with the philosophy of this work in which the time passed to obtain the result is a stringent factor. For the ash mass retrieval, the trained network replicates the model. In fact, in order to have a network able to learn a behavior and to represent it through a functional approximation, it is necessary to provide appropriate information by an ensemble of examples. These latter can be obtained from a model if a direct measure is not available. In this work the results obtained with the BTD procedure have been considered. The results obtained from the entire procedure are encouraging, indeed the confusion matrix for the test set has an accuracy greater than 90%. Moreover the ash mass retrieval shows a good agreement with that achieved by BTD procedure.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco - USA
    Description: open
    Keywords: ash retrievals ; MODIS ; neural networks ; volcanic risk ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 2
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    Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1 – 20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained.
    Description: Published
    Description: B11201
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: volcanic hazard ; forecasting eruptions ; Mount Vesuvius ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    The scientific management of volcanic crises (2013)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-08
    Description: Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely com- plicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational miti- gation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.
    Description: Published
    Description: 181-189
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; decision making ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility (2014)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-21
    Description: One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).
    Description: Published
    Description: 3031–3042
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: volcanic susceptibility ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Numerical inversion and analysis of tephra fallout deposits fromthe 472 ADsub-Plinian eruption at Vesuvius (Italy) through a new best-fit procedure (2011)
    elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: A simple semi-analytical model for ash-fall deposit was applied to reconstruct the tephra deposits of the sub- Plinian 472 AD eruption of Vesuvius, Italy, which is of the scale of the reference eruptive scenario for the emergency planning, at Vesuvius. Applying a novel least-squares method, the bulk grain-size distribution, the total mass, and the eruption column height were obtained by fitting the computed ground load and granulometries with the observed ones. The analysis of the effect of three different weighting factors in the minimization procedure was also performed. Results showed that the statistical weighting factor produced the minimum bias. The best correlation between calculated and measured deposit was found, even though the quantity of the input data was not very high, as it commonly occurs for several ancient eruptions. Model results were also in agreement with estimations provided by other independent methods.
    Description: Published
    Description: 238–246
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: tephra fallout ; Pollena eruption ; HAZMAP model ; Vesuvius ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.08. Sediments: dating, processes, transport ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Quantitative hazard assessment of phreatomagmatic eruptions at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Southern Italy) as obtained by combining stratigraphy, event statistics and physical modelling (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-16
    Description: The detailed analysis of stratigraphy allowed the reconstruction of the complex volcanic history of La Fossa di Vulcano. An eruptive activity mainly driven by superficial phreatomagmatic explosions emerged. A statistical analysis of the pyroclastic Successions led to the identification of dilute pyroclastic density currents (base surges) as the most recurrent events, followed by fallout of dense ballistic blocks. The scale of events is related to the amount of magma involved in each explosion. Events involving about 1 million cm3 of magma occurred during recent eruptions. They led to the formation of hundreds of meters thick dilute pyroclastic density currents, moving down the volcano slope at velocities exceeding 50 m/s. The dispersion of density currents affected the whole Vulcano Porto area, the Vulcanello area. They also overrode the Fossa Caldera's rim, spreading over the Piano area. For the aim of hazard assessment, deposits from La Fossa Cone and La Fossa Caldera were studied in detail, to depict the eruptive scenarios at short-term and at long-term. By means of physical models that make use of deposit particle features, the impact parameters have been calculated. They are dynamic pressure and particle volumetric concentration of density currents, and impact energy of ballistic blocks. A quantitative hazard map, based on these impact parameters, is presented. It could be useful for territory planning and for the calculation of the expected damage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 364-384
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Volcanic Hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Satellite detection of volcanic ash from Eyjafjallajökull and the threat to aviation (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-02
    Description: Earth orbiting satellites provide an excellent means for monitoring and measuring emissions from volcanic eruptions. The recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland on 14 April, 2010 and the subsequent movement of the ash clouds were tracked using a variety of satellite instruments as they moved over Europe. Data from the rapid sampling (every 15 minutes) SEVIRI on Meteosat Second Generation were especially useful during this event as the thermal channels between 10–12 micron could be used to detect the ash signal and perform quantitative ash retrievals of mass loadings, optical depths and effective particle size. Higher-spatial resolution ( 1 km2) information from the MODIS sensors on NASA’s Terra and Aqua platforms were also analysed to determine ash microphysics and also to provide ash cloud top height. High-spectral resolution data from the IASI and AIRS sensors showed that initially quantities of ice, potentially with ash cores, were present, and that multi-species retrievals could be performed by exploiting the spectral content of the data. Vertically resolved ash layers were detected using the Caliop lidar on board the Calipso platform. Ash was clearly detected over Europe using the infra-red sensors with mass loadings typically in the range 0.1–5 gm-2, which for layers of 500–1000 m thickness, suggests ash concentrations in the range 0.1–10 mg m-3, and therefore represent a potential hazard to aviation.Little SO2 was detected at the start of the eruption, although both OMI and AIRS detected upper-level SO2 on 15 April. By late April and early May, 0.1–0.3 Tg (SO2) could be detected using these sensors. The wealth of satellite data available, some in near real-time, and the ability of infrared and ultra-violet sensors to detect volcanic ash and SO2 are emphasised in this presentation. The ash/aviation problem can be addressed using remote sensing measurements, validated with ground-based and air-borne, and combined with dispersion modelling. The volcanic ash threat to aviation can be ameliorated by utilising these space-based resources.
    Description: Published
    Description: Vienna - Austria
    Description: open
    Keywords: ash retrieval ; volcanic risk ; MODIS ; SEVIRI ; AIRS ; IASI ; CALIOP ; OMI ; SO2 retrieval ; Eyjafjallajokull ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 8
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    SAFER Response to Eyjafjallajökull and Merapi Volcanic Eruptions. In: ‘Let's embrace space’ Space Research achievements under the 7th Framework Programme, Edit by European Commission, DG Enterprise and Industry (2012)
    European Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-02
    Description: After PREVIEW FP6 Project’s conclusion, the WP30210 within FP7 GMES SAFER (Services and Applications For Emergency Response) Project has the main objective to refine and consolidate the Earthquake & Volcanoes (E&V) services that were just tested in previous activities and to provide operative services to Users, the Civil Protection Authorities. Here we mainly report objectives and results for the specific tasks related to Eruptive volcanic parameters (WP30211). Four specific products related to the volcanic events which will contribute to the monitoring of the phenomena and mitigation of the eruption effects are expected within the end of the Project. They mainly concern: SAR displacement, high temperature events (HTE), Ash detection, SO2 concentration and flux, and Ash dispersion models. In particular, here we mostly focus on the activity performed in the occasion of FP7 GMES SAFER activation during two major volcanic eruptions occurred in 2010. The first activation was for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption occurred in Iceland between April and May 2010, and the second one was solicited in the occasion of the eruption of Mount Merapi (Indonesia) in October-November 2010. Here we present the results of both remote sensing and modeling activities performed during these two events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 212-222
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcanic risk ; Remote sensing technique ; Volcanic ash dispersal simulation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.01. Data processing
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 9
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    Pyroclastic flow hazard assessment at Somma–Vesuvius based on the geological record. (2011)
    Springer-Verlag
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-03
    Description: During the past 22 ka of activity at Somma– Vesuvius, catastrophic pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) have been generated repeatedly. Examples are those that destroyed the towns of Pompeii and Ercolano in AD 79, as well as Torre del Greco and several circum-Vesuvian villages in AD 1631. Using new field data and data available from the literature, we delineate the area impacted by PDCs at Somma–Vesuvius to improve the related hazard assessment. We mainly focus on the dispersal, thickness, and extent of the PDC deposits generated during seven plinian and sub-plinian eruptions, namely, the Pomici di Base, Greenish Pumice, Pomici di Mercato, Pomici di Avellino, Pompeii Pumice, AD 472 Pollena, and AD 1631 eruptions. We present maps of the total thickness of the PDC deposits for each eruption. Five out of seven eruptions dispersed PDCs radially, sometimes showing a preferred direction controlled by the position of the vent and the paleotopography. Only the PDCs from AD 1631 eruption were influenced by the presence of the Mt Somma caldera wall which stopped their advance in a northerly direction. Most PDC deposits are located downslope of the pronounced break-in slope that marks the base of the Somma– Vesuvius cone. PDCs from the Pomici di Avellino and Pompeii Pumice eruptions have the most dispersed deposits (extending more than 20 km from the inferred vent). These deposits are relatively thin, normally graded, and stratified. In contrast, thick, massive, lithic-rich deposits are only dispersed within 7 to 8 km of the vent. Isopach maps and the deposit features reveal that PDC dispersal was strongly controlled by the intensity of the eruption (in terms of magma discharge rate), the position of the vent area with respect to the Mt Somma caldera wall, and the pre-existing topography. Facies characteristics of the PDC deposits appear to correlate with dispersal; the stratified facies are consistently dispersed more widely than the massive facies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1021–1038
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Pyroclastic flow ; Hazard assessment ; Mt Somma ; Pyroclastic density currents ; Facies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Potential Field modeling of collapse-prone submarine volcanoes in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy) (2010)
    AGU
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: Hydrothermal alteration may weaken volcanic rocks, causing the gravitational instability of portions of active volcanoes with potentially hazardous collapses. Here we show high‐resolution multibeam, magnetic and gravity surveys of the Marsili seamount, the largest active volcano of Europe located in the southern Tyrrhenian back‐arc basin. These surveys reveal zones with exceptionally low densities and with vanishing magnetizations, due probably to the comminution of basalts during hyaloclastic submarine eruptions and to their post‐eruptive hydrothermal alteration. The location of these regions correlates with morphological data showing the occurrence of past collapses. Similar evidence has been obtained from pre existing data at Vavilov Seamount, another older volcanic system in the Tyrrhenian back‐arc basin. Here a large volume of at least 50 km3 may have collapsed in a single event from its 40 km long western flank. Given the similarities between these volcanoes, a large collapse event may also be expected at Marsili.
    Description: Published
    Description: L03305
    Description: 2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attive
    Description: 3.4. Geomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Marsili Seamount ; Gravity anomalies ; Magnetic anomalies ; Tyrrhenian Sea ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.02. Gravity methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.05. Geomagnetism::04.05.04. Magnetic anomalies ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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