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  • Climate change
  • 2010-2014  (47)
  • 1985-1989  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1274–1290, doi:10.1002/2013GB004599.
    Description: Here we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880–2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3.1) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-sea ice model. The climate response differs fundamentally in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for diatom and small phytoplankton biomass and consequently for total biomass, primary, and export production. Increasing vertical stratification in the Northern Hemisphere oceans decreases the nutrient supply to the ocean surface. Resulting decreases in diatom and small phytoplankton biomass together with a relative shift from diatoms to small phytoplankton in the Northern Hemisphere result in decreases in the total primary and export production and export ratio, and a shift to a more oligotrophic, more efficiently recycled, lower biomass euphotic layer. By contrast, temperature and stratification increases are smaller in the Southern compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, a southward shift and increase in strength of the Southern Ocean westerlies act against increasing temperature and freshwater fluxes to destratify the water-column. The wind-driven, poleward shift in the Southern Ocean subpolar-subtropical boundary results in a poleward shift and increase in the frontal diatom bloom. This boundary shift, localized increases in iron supply, and the direct impact of warming temperatures on phytoplankton growth result in diatom increases in the Southern Hemisphere. An increase in diatoms and decrease in small phytoplankton partly compensate such that while total production and the efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean increase, total Southern Hemisphere biomass does not change substantially. The impact of ecological shifts on the global carbon cycle is complex and varies across ecological biomes, with Northern and Southern Hemisphere effects on the biological production and export partially compensating. The net result of climate change is a small Northern Hemisphere-driven decrease in total primary production and efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean.
    Description: I. Marinov was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant ATM06-28582 while at WHOI and by NASA Grant NNX13AC92G while at Penn. I. Lima and S. Doney were supported by the Center for Microbial Oceanography, Research, and Education (CMORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599).
    Description: 2014-06-20
    Keywords: Phytoplankton ; Climate change ; Ocean models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8297–8301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1.
    Description: There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.
    Description: GH acknowledges funding from the Federal Ministry for Education and Research. MA acknowledges partial support from the Giannini Foundation.
    Description: 2015-05-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Statistics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Progress in Oceanography 122 (2014): 10-29, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.007.
    Description: The productivity and linkages in the food web of the southern region of the west Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf were investigated using a multi-trophic level mass balance model. Data collected during the Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics field program were combined with data from the literature on the abundance and diet composition of zooplankton, fish, seabirds and marine mammals to calculate energy flows in the food web and to infer the overall food web structure at the annual level. Sensitivity analyses investigated the effects of variability in growth and biomass of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and in the biomass of Antarctic krill predators on the structure and energy fluxes in the food web. Scenario simulations provided insights into the potential responses of the food web to a reduced contribution of large phytoplankton (diatom) production to total primary production, and to reduced consumption of primary production by Antarctic krill and mesozooplankton coincident with increased consumption by microzooplankton and salps. Model-derived estimates of primary production were 187 – 207 g C m-2 y-1, which are consistent with observed values (47-351 g C m-2 y-1). Simulations showed that Antarctic krill provide the majority of energy needed to sustain seabird and marine mammal production, thereby exerting a bottom-up control on higher trophic level predators. Energy transfer to top predators via mesozooplanton was a less efficient pathway, and salps were a production loss pathway because little of the primary production they consumed was passed to higher trophic levels. Increased predominance of small phytoplankton (nanoflagellates and cryptophytes) reduced the production of Antarctic krill and of its predators, including seabirds and seals.
    Description: Support for T. Ballerini and E. Hofmann was provided by NSF grant OCE-0814584, for D. Ainley by ANT-0944411 and OCE-0814406, for C. Ribic by OCE-0814406. K. Daly and M. Marrari were supported by NSF grant OCE-0814405.
    Keywords: Antarctic krill ; Climate change ; Donor-controlled model ; Food web ; Mass balance model ; Southern Ocean
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 5 (2014): art72, doi:10.1890/ES13-00281.1.
    Description: Warming Arctic temperatures can drive changes in vegetation structure and function directly by stimulating plant growth or indirectly by stimulating microbial decomposition of organic matter and releasing more nutrients for plant uptake and growth. The arctic biome is currently increasing in deciduous shrub cover and this increase is expected to continue with climate warming. However, little is known how current deciduous shrub communities will respond to future climate induced warming and nutrient increase. We examined the plant and ecosystem response to a long-term (18 years) nutrient addition and warming experiment in an Alaskan arctic tall deciduous shrub tundra ecosystem to understand controls over plant productivity and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage in shrub tundra ecosystems. In addition, we used a meta-analysis approach to compare the treatment effect size for aboveground biomass among seven long-term studies conducted across multiple plant community types within the Arctic. We found that biomass, productivity, and aboveground N pools increased with nutrient additions and warming, while species diversity decreased. Both nutrient additions and warming caused the dominant functional group, deciduous shrubs, to increase biomass and proportional C and N allocation to aboveground stems but decreased allocation to belowground stems. For all response variables except soil C and N pools, effects of nutrients plus warming were largest. Soil C and N pools were highly variable and we could not detect any response to the treatments. The biomass response to warming and fertilization in tall deciduous shrub tundra was greater than moist acidic and moist non-acidic tundra and more similar to the biomass response of wet sedge tundra. Our data suggest that in a warmer and more nutrient-rich Arctic, tall deciduous shrub tundra will have greater total deciduous shrub biomass and a higher proportion of woody tissue that has a longer residence time, with a lower proportion of C and N allocated to belowground stems.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF grants DEB-0516041, DEB-0516509 and the Arctic LTER (DEB-0423385).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Carbon pools ; Climate change ; Deciduous shrubs ; Manipulated warming ; Meta-analysis ; Nitrogen pools ; Nutrient additions ; Tundra
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 23 (2013): 1817-1836, doi:10.1890/11-1050.1.
    Description: Terrestrial carbon dynamics influence the contribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to river networks in addition to hydrology. In this study, we use a biogeochemical process model to simulate the lateral transfer of DOC from land to the Arctic Ocean via riverine transport. We estimate that, over the 20th century, the pan-Arctic watershed has contributed, on average, 32 Tg C/yr of DOC to river networks emptying into the Arctic Ocean with most of the DOC coming from the extensive area of boreal deciduous needle-leaved forests and forested wetlands in Eurasian watersheds. We also estimate that the rate of terrestrial DOC loading has been increasing by 0.037 Tg C/yr2 over the 20th century primarily as a result of climate-induced increases in water yield. These increases have been offset by decreases in terrestrial DOC loading caused by wildfires. Other environmental factors (CO2 fertilization, ozone pollution, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, timber harvest, agriculture) are estimated to have relatively small effects on terrestrial DOC loading to Arctic rivers. The effects of the various environmental factors on terrestrial carbon dynamics have both offset and enhanced concurrent effects on hydrology to influence terrestrial DOC loading and may be changing the relative importance of terrestrial carbon dynamics on this carbon flux. Improvements in simulating terrestrial DOC loading to pan-Arctic rivers in the future will require better information on the production and consumption of DOC within the soil profile, the transfer of DOC from land to headwater streams, the spatial distribution of precipitation and its temporal trends, carbon dynamics of larch-dominated ecosystems in eastern Siberia, and the role of industrial organic effluents on carbon budgets of rivers in western Russia.
    Description: This study was supported, in part, by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants ARC-0531047, ARC-0531082, ARC-0531119, ARC-0554811, and ARC- 0652838; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grant R833261; the U.S. Department of Energy under grant DE-FG02-08ER64597; and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NNX09A126G.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Permafrost degradation ; River discharge ; Riverine DOC export ; Terrestrial DOC loading ; Trajectory of the Arctic ; Water yield ; Wildfire
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 2861–2885, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1.
    Description: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO amplitude around December; however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
    Description: 2014-10-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Climate models ; Model evaluation/performance
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Environmental Research 98 (2014): 29-38, doi:10.1016/j.marenvres.2014.04.002.
    Description: As sea surface temperatures rise and the global human population increases, large-scale field observations of marine organism health and water quality are increasingly necessary. We investigated the health of corals from the family Fungiidae using visual observations in relation to water quality and microbial biogeochemistry parameters along 1300 km of the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. At large scales, incidence of lesions caused by unidentified etiology showed consistent signs, increasing significantly from the northern to southern coast and positively correlated to annual mean seawater temperatures. Lesion abundance also increased to a maximum of 96% near the populous city of Jeddah. The presence of lesioned corals in the region surrounding Jeddah was strongly correlated with elevated concentrations of ammonium and changes in microbial communities that are linked to decreased water quality. This study suggests that both high seawater temperatures and nutrient pollution may play an indirect role in the formation of lesions on corals.
    Description: This research was supported by Award No. USA 00002 to K. Hughen by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and a WHOI Ocean Life Institute postdoctoral scholar fellowship to A. Apprill.
    Keywords: Scleractinia ; Saudi Arabia ; Microbes ; Climate change ; Marine ecology ; Nutrients
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  • 8
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    Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). Contact: bco-dmo-data@whoi.edu
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: The Series 4 Experiment, Aggregation of Thalassiosira weissflogii as a function of pCO2, temperature and bacteria, is made up of 2 phases. The Acclimatisation Phase and the Aggregation Phase. The Acclimatisation Phase has two components – The Carbonate System data and the Cell Counts Data. The Aggregation Phase also has two components – The Carbonate System + TEP data and the Sinking Velocity data. Note: For a complete list of measurements, refer to the supplemental document ' Series4_Field_names.pdf' .
    Description: Increasing Transparent Exopolymer Particle (TEP) formation during diatom blooms as a result of elevated temperature and pCO2 have been suggested to result in enhanced aggregation and carbon flux, therewith potentially increasing the sequestration of carbon by the ocean. We present experimental results on TEP and aggregate formation by Thalassiosira weissflogii (diatom) in the presence or absence of bacteria under two temperature and three pCO2 scenarios. During the aggregation phase of the experiment TEP formation was elevated at the higher temperature (20ºC vs. 15ºC), as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations based on the established relationship between TEP and aggregation, aggregation rates and sinking velocity of aggregates were depressed in warmer treatments, especially under ocean acidification conditions. If our experimental findings can be extrapolated to natural conditions, they would imply a reduction in carbon flux and potentially reduced carbon sequestration after diatoms blooms in the future ocean.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF Grant: OCE-0926711
    Description: 2014-10-08
    Keywords: Ocean acidification ; Temperature ; Transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) ; Marine aggregates ; Climate change ; Diatom ; Thalassiosira weissflogii ; Marinobacter adhaerens HP15
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Dataset
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Annual Reviews for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Annual Review of Marine Science 4 (2012): 143-176, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081121.
    Description: The public health, tourism, fisheries and ecosystem impacts from harmful algal blooms (HABs) have all increased over the last few decades. This has led to heightened scientific and regulatory attention, and the development of many new technologies and approaches for research and management. This in turn, is leading to significant paradigm shifts with regard to, e.g., our interpretation of the phytoplankton species concept (strain variation), the dogma of their apparent cosmopolitanism, the role of bacteria and zooplankton grazing in HABs, and our approaches to investigating the ecological and genetic basis for the production of toxins and allelochemicals. Increasingly, eutrophication and climate change are viewed and managed as multifactorial environmental stressors that will further challenge managers of coastal resources and those responsible for protecting human health. Here we review HAB science with an eye towards new concepts and approaches, emphasizing, where possible, the unexpected yet promising new directions that research has taken in this diverse field.
    Description: Support to DMA was provided by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (1-P50-ES012742) and the National Science Foundation through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health (OCE-0430724), and by NOAA Grants NA09NOS4260212 and NA09OAR4320129.
    Keywords: Red tide ; Shellfish toxicity ; Fish kills ; Ecogenomics ; Monitoring ; Climate change
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  • 10
    Keywords: Environment ; Renewable energy resources ; Energy policy ; Energy and state ; Energy efficiency ; Climate change ; Renewable energy sources ; Alternate energy sources ; Green energy industries ; Environmental engineering ; Biotechnology ; Sustainable development ; Environment ; Sustainable Development ; Energy Policy, Economics and Management ; Energy Efficiency (incl. Buildings) ; Climate Change Management and Policy ; Renewable and Green Energy ; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
    Description / Table of Contents: 1 “Diffusive Demand” and “Creative Demand” --- 2 The 21st Century Paradigm and the Role of Information Technology --- 3 “Vision 2050” as the Rescue of a “Limited Earth” --- 4 Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, I --- 5 Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, II --- 6 Toward the Realization of a “Platinum Society”
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXIX, 103 pages) , 30 illustrations, 29 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9784431545590
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Keywords: Climate change ; Environmental economics ; Economics ; Environmental Economics ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface --- Part 1 Theory and Methodology --- Part 2 General Report of Global Environment Competitiveness --- Part 3 Sub Report --- Appendix --- Postscript
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXXI, 846 pages) , 437 illustrations
    ISBN: 9783642546785
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Keywords: Environment ; Regional planning ; Urban planning ; Applied ecology ; Wildlife ; Fish ; Climate change ; Nature conservation ; Environment ; Climate Change ; Nature Conservation ; Fish & Wildlife Biology & Management ; Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning ; Applied Ecology
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface --- Acknowledgements --- Chapter 1 – Natural Heritage at Risk by Climate Change --- Chapter 2 – Climate Change in Central and Eastern Europe --- Chapter 3 – Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe --- Chapter 4 – Potential impacts of climate change on protected habitats --- Chapter 5 – Climate Change impact modelling cascade - Benefits and limitations for --- Chapter 6 – Indicators for Monitoring Climate Change-Induced Effects on Habitats – a --- Chapter 7 – Remote Sensing-based Monitoring of Potential Climate-induced Impacts on Habitats --- Chapter 8 – Assessment of Climate-induced Impacts on Habitats --- Chapter 9 – Legal Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation --- Chapter 10 – A Methodical Framework for Climate Change-Adapted Management in Protected Areas --- Chapter 11 – Monitoring concept of climate-induced impacts on peat bog vegetation in Pokljuka plateau in Triglav National Park, Slovenia --- Chapter 12 – Concept for the monitoring of climate induced impacts on rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) in Triglav National Park, Slovenia --- Chapter 13 – Suggested management measures for Natura 2000 Habitats in Körös-Maros National Park, Hungary --- Chapter 14 – Climate-induced challenges for wetlands: revealing the background for the adaptive ecosystem management in the Biebrza Valley, Poland --- Chapter 15 – Habitat changes caused by sea level rise, driven by climate change in the Northern Adriatic coastal wetlands, Slovenia --- Chapter 16 – Potential impacts of climate change on forest habitats in the Biosphere Reserve Vessertal-Thuringian Forest in Germany --- Chapter 17 – Potential Impact of Climate Change on Alpine Habitats from Bucegi Natural Park, Romania --- Chapter 18 – Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Habitats and their Effects on Invasive Plant Species in Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania --- Chapter 19 - Reproduction biology of an alien invasive plant: a case of drought-tolerant Aster squamatus on the Northern Adriatic seacoast, Slovenia --- Chapter 20 – Conclusions and Recommendations for Adapting Conservation Management in the Face of Climate Change --- Index
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXV, 308 pages) , 77 illustrations, 33 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9789400779600
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Keywords: Environment ; Regional planning ; Urban planning ; Applied ecology ; Wildlife ; Fish ; Climate change ; Nature conservation ; Environment ; Climate Change ; Nature Conservation ; Fish & Wildlife Biology & Management ; Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning ; Applied Ecology
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface --- Acknowledgements --- Chapter 1 – Natural Heritage at Risk by Climate Change --- Chapter 2 – Climate Change in Central and Eastern Europe --- Chapter 3 – Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe --- Chapter 4 – Potential impacts of climate change on protected habitats --- Chapter 5 – Climate Change impact modelling cascade - Benefits and limitations for --- Chapter 6 – Indicators for Monitoring Climate Change-Induced Effects on Habitats – a --- Chapter 7 – Remote Sensing-based Monitoring of Potential Climate-induced Impacts on Habitats --- Chapter 8 – Assessment of Climate-induced Impacts on Habitats --- Chapter 9 – Legal Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation --- Chapter 10 – A Methodical Framework for Climate Change-Adapted Management in Protected Areas --- Chapter 11 – Monitoring concept of climate-induced impacts on peat bog vegetation in Pokljuka plateau in Triglav National Park, Slovenia --- Chapter 12 – Concept for the monitoring of climate induced impacts on rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) in Triglav National Park, Slovenia --- Chapter 13 – Suggested management measures for Natura 2000 Habitats in Körös-Maros National Park, Hungary --- Chapter 14 – Climate-induced challenges for wetlands: revealing the background for the adaptive ecosystem management in the Biebrza Valley, Poland --- Chapter 15 – Habitat changes caused by sea level rise, driven by climate change in the Northern Adriatic coastal wetlands, Slovenia --- Chapter 16 – Potential impacts of climate change on forest habitats in the Biosphere Reserve Vessertal-Thuringian Forest in Germany --- Chapter 17 – Potential Impact of Climate Change on Alpine Habitats from Bucegi Natural Park, Romania --- Chapter 18 – Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Habitats and their Effects on Invasive Plant Species in Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, Romania --- Chapter 19 - Reproduction biology of an alien invasive plant: a case of drought-tolerant Aster squamatus on the Northern Adriatic seacoast, Slovenia --- Chapter 20 – Conclusions and Recommendations for Adapting Conservation Management in the Face of Climate Change --- Index
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXV, 308 pages) , 77 illustrations, 33 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9789400779600
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Keywords: Environment ; Renewable energy resources ; Energy policy ; Energy and state ; Energy efficiency ; Climate change ; Renewable energy sources ; Alternate energy sources ; Green energy industries ; Environmental engineering ; Biotechnology ; Sustainable development ; Environment ; Sustainable Development ; Energy Policy, Economics and Management ; Energy Efficiency (incl. Buildings) ; Climate Change Management and Policy ; Renewable and Green Energy ; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
    Description / Table of Contents: 1 “Diffusive Demand” and “Creative Demand” --- 2 The 21st Century Paradigm and the Role of Information Technology --- 3 “Vision 2050” as the Rescue of a “Limited Earth” --- 4 Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, I --- 5 Finding a Way Out Through Creative Demand, II --- 6 Toward the Realization of a “Platinum Society”
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXIX, 103 pages) , 30 illustrations, 29 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9784431545590
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Environmental economics ; Economics ; Environmental Economics ; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface --- Part 1 Theory and Methodology --- Part 2 General Report of Global Environment Competitiveness --- Part 3 Sub Report --- Appendix --- Postscript
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XXXI, 846 pages) , 437 illustrations
    ISBN: 9783642546785
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © University of California Press and American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of University of California Press and American Institute of Biological Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in BioScience 63 (2013): 350-361, doi:10.1525/bio.2013.63.5.8.
    Description: Humans depend on diverse ocean ecosystems for food, jobs, and sustained well-being, yet many stressors threaten marine life. Extensive research has demonstrated that maintaining biodiversity promotes ocean health and service provision; therefore, monitoring the status and trends of marine biodiversity is important for effective ecosystem management. However, there is no systematic sustained program for evaluating ocean biodiversity. Coordinating existing monitoring and building a proactive marine biodiversity observation network will support efficient, economical resource management and conservation and should be a high priority. A synthesis of expert opinions suggests that, to be most effective, a marine biodiversity observation network should integrate biological levels, from genes to habitats; link biodiversity observations to abiotic environmental variables; site projects to incorporate environmental forcing and biogeography; and monitor adaptively to address emerging issues. We summarize examples illustrating how to leverage existing data and infrastructure to meet these goals.
    Keywords: Biodiversity observation network (BON), ; Biosecurity ; Climate change ; Ecosystem-based management ; Ecosystem services
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences 368 (2013): 20120490, doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0490.
    Description: Fire causes dramatic short-term changes in vegetation and ecosystem function, and may promote rapid vegetation change by creating recruitment opportunities. Climate warming likely will increase the frequency of wildfire in the Arctic, where it is not common now. In 2007, the unusually severe Anaktuvuk River fire burned 1039 km2 of tundra on Alaska's North Slope. Four years later, we harvested plant biomass and soils across a gradient of burn severity, to assess recovery. In burned areas, above-ground net primary productivity of vascular plants equalled that in unburned areas, though total live biomass was less. Graminoid biomass had recovered to unburned levels, but shrubs had not. Virtually all vascular plant biomass had resprouted from surviving underground parts; no non-native species were seen. However, bryophytes were mostly disturbance-adapted species, and non-vascular biomass had recovered less than vascular plant biomass. Soil nitrogen availability did not differ between burned and unburned sites. Graminoids showed allocation changes consistent with nitrogen stress. These patterns are similar to those seen following other, smaller tundra fires. Soil nitrogen limitation and the persistence of resprouters will likely lead to recovery of mixed shrub–sedge tussock tundra, unless permafrost thaws, as climate warms, more extensively than has yet occurred.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF (no. OPP-0632264) and NSF (no. OPP-1107892) to M. S. Bret-Harte, NSF (no. OPP-0856853) to G. R. Shaver and NSF (no. OPP-6737545) to M. C. Mack.
    Keywords: Alaskan tussock tundra ; Fire ; Vegetation recovery ; Permafrost ; Climate change ; Soil N availability
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Marine Ecology Progress Series 492 (2013): 253-272, doi:10.3354/meps10534.
    Description: An inverse food-web model for the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) pelagic food web was constrained with data from Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (PAL-LTER) project annual austral summer sampling cruises. Model solutions were generated for 2 regions with Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae colonies presenting different population trends (a northern and a southern colony) for a 12 yr period (1995-2006). Counter to the standard paradigm, comparisons of carbon flow through bacteria, microzooplankton, and krill showed that the diatom-krill-top predator food chain is not the dominant pathway for organic carbon exchanges. The food web is more complex, including significant contributions by microzooplankton and the microbial loop. Using both inverse model results and network indices, it appears that in the northern WAP the food web is dominated by the microbial food web, with a temporal trend toward its increasing importance. The dominant pathway for the southern WAP food web varies from year to year, with no detectable temporal trend toward dominance of microzooplankton versus krill. In addition, sensitivity analyses indicated that the northern colony of Adélie penguins, whose population size has been declining over the past 35 yr, appears to have sufficient krill during summer to sustain its basic metabolic needs and rear chicks, suggesting the importance of other processes in regulating the Adélie population decline.
    Description: We acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs, Award 0823101 (Antarctic Organisms and Ecosystems Program) to Palmer LTER.
    Keywords: Inverse model ; Food web ; Antarctica ; Microzooplankton ; Krill ; Ecosystem state change ; Climate change
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: The files included are computer code for achieving the test described in the associated manuscript. The code is written in MATLAB and requires the optimization toolbox.
    Description: One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper butterfly and the European goldfinch in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Extreme value statistics ; Occupancy ; Species range ; Bootstrap ; Endpoint estimation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Coral Reefs 32 (2013): 727-735, doi:10.1007/s00338-013-1021-5.
    Description: Ocean acidification (OA) threatens the existence of coral reefs by slowing the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production of framework-building corals thus reducing the amount of CaCO3 the reef can produce to counteract natural dissolution. Some evidence exists to suggest that elevated levels of dissolved inorganic nutrients can reduce the impact of OA on coral calcification. Here, we investigated the potential for enhanced energetic status of juvenile corals, achieved via heterotrophic feeding, to modulate the negative impact of OA on calcification. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum, were collected and reared for 3 weeks under ambient (421 μatm) or significantly elevated (1,311 μatm) CO2 conditions. The metamorphosed, zooxanthellate spat were either fed brine shrimp (i.e., received nutrition from photosynthesis plus heterotrophy) or not fed (i.e., primarily autotrophic). Regardless of CO2 condition, the skeletons of fed corals exhibited accelerated development of septal cycles and were larger than those of unfed corals. At each CO2 level, fed corals accreted more CaCO3 than unfed corals, and fed corals reared under 1,311 μatm CO2 accreted as much CaCO3 as unfed corals reared under ambient CO2. However, feeding did not alter the sensitivity of calcification to increased CO2; Δcalcification/ΔΩ was comparable for fed and unfed corals. Our results suggest that calcification rates of nutritionally replete juvenile corals will decline as OA intensifies over the course of this century. Critically, however, such corals could maintain higher rates of skeletal growth and CaCO3 production under OA than those in nutritionally limited environments.
    Description: This project was funded by NSF OCE-1041106 and NSF OCE-1041052, a WHOI winter intern fellowship to A. Zicht made possible by the A. V. Davis Foundation and support from the MIT/WHOI Bermuda Biological Station for Research Fund.
    Description: 2014-03-08
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ocean acidification ; Coral reefs ; Coral calcification ; Heterotrophy ; Energetics
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  • 22
    Keywords: Statistics ; Climate change ; Quality control ; Reliability ; Industrial safety ; Statistics ; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences ; Climate Change Management and Policy ; Quality Control, Reliability, Safety and Risk
    Description / Table of Contents: 1.Abstract --- 2.Introduction --- 3.Climate Change and Variability --- 4.Changes in Wind, Waves and Sea Water Level in the 20th Century --- 5.Expected Changes in Wind, Waves and Sea Water Level in the 21st Century --- 5.1. Changes in the Average Values and Extremes --- 5.2 .Uncertainties --- 6.Potential Impact on Design of Marine Structures --- 6.1. Met-ocean Design Bases --- 6.2.Risk-based Approach --- 6.3.Illustration of Application --- 7.Conclusions and Recommendations
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 69 pages) , 17 illustrations, 13 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9783642341380
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Keywords: Statistics ; Climate change ; Quality control ; Reliability ; Industrial safety ; Statistics ; Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences ; Climate Change Management and Policy ; Quality Control, Reliability, Safety and Risk
    Description / Table of Contents: 1.Abstract --- 2.Introduction --- 3.Climate Change and Variability --- 4.Changes in Wind, Waves and Sea Water Level in the 20th Century --- 5.Expected Changes in Wind, Waves and Sea Water Level in the 21st Century --- 5.1. Changes in the Average Values and Extremes --- 5.2 .Uncertainties --- 6.Potential Impact on Design of Marine Structures --- 6.1. Met-ocean Design Bases --- 6.2.Risk-based Approach --- 6.3.Illustration of Application --- 7.Conclusions and Recommendations
    Pages: Online-Ressource (XII, 69 pages) , 17 illustrations, 13 illustrations in color
    ISBN: 9783642341380
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: Para entender esta problemática, en lenguaje ameno y didáctico, profusamente ilustrado se ofrecen conceptos importantes como efecto invernadero, calentamiento global, zonas vulnerables, entre otros. Describe además que han hecho, hacen y harán los niños cubanos para mitigar el cambio climático. Al final, pueden comprobar los conocimientos adquiridos a través de juegos y conocer nuevas palabras en el glosario ofrecido.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Non-Refereed , Article
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Institute of Biological Sciences, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Institute of Biological Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in BioScience 62 (2012): 377-389, doi:10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.9.
    Description: The US National Science Foundation—funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network supports a large (around 240) and diverse portfolio of long-term ecological experiments. Collectively, these long-term experiments have (a) provided unique insights into ecological patterns and processes, although such insight often became apparent only after many years of study; (b) influenced management and policy decisions; and (c) evolved into research platforms supporting studies and involving investigators who were not part of the original design. Furthermore, this suite of long-term experiments addresses, at the site level, all of the US National Research Council's Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences. Despite these contributions, we argue that the scale and scope of global environmental change requires a more-coordinated multisite approach to long-term experiments. Ideally, such an approach would include a network of spatially extensive multifactor experiments, designed in collaboration with ecological modelers that would build on and extend the unique context provided by the LTER Network.
    Description: 2012-10-01
    Keywords: Climate change ; Global change ; Long-term research ; LTER Network ; Multifactor experiments
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Plant and Soil 356 (2012): 405-417, doi:10.1007/s11104-012-1130-x.
    Description: Soil warming from global climate change could increase decomposition of fine woody debris (FWD), but debris size and quality may mitigate this effect. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of soil warming on decomposition of fine woody debris of differing size and quality. We placed FWD of two size classes (2 × 20 cm and 4 × 40 cm) and four species (Acer saccharum, Betula lenta, Quercus rubra and Tsuga canadensis) in a soil warming and ambient area at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. We collected the debris from each area over two years and measured mass loss and lignin concentration. Warming increased mass loss for all species and size classes (by as much as 30%), but larger debris and debris with higher initial lignin content decomposed slower than smaller debris and debris with lower initial lignin content. Lignin degradation did not follow the same trends as mass loss. Lignin loss from the most lignin-rich species, T. canadensis, was the highest despite the fact that it lost mass the slowest. Our results suggest that soil warming will increase decomposition of FWD in temperate forests. It is imperative that future models and policy efforts account for this potential shift in the carbon storage pool.
    Keywords: Woody debris ; Lignin ; Decomposition ; Soil warming ; Climate change
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L15501, doi:10.1029/2012GL052222.
    Description: Starting in Late Pleistocene time (~19 ka), sea level rise inundated coastal zones worldwide. On some parts of the present-day circum-Arctic continental shelf, this led to flooding and thawing of formerly subaerial permafrost and probable dissociation of associated gas hydrates. Relict permafrost has never been systematically mapped along the 700-km-long U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf and is often assumed to extend to ~120 m water depth, the approximate amount of sea level rise since the Late Pleistocene. Here, 5,000 km of multichannel seismic (MCS) data acquired between 1977 and 1992 were examined for high-velocity (〉2.3 km s−1) refractions consistent with ice-bearing, coarse-grained sediments. Permafrost refractions were identified along 〈5% of the tracklines at depths of ~5 to 470 m below the seafloor. The resulting map reveals the minimum extent of subsea ice-bearing permafrost, which does not extend seaward of 30 km offshore or beyond the 20 m isobath.
    Description: This research was sponsored by DOE-USGS Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911. L.B. was supported by a DOE NETL/NRC Methane Hydrate Fellowship under DE-FC26-05NT42248.
    Keywords: Beaufort Sea ; Climate change ; Methane hydrates ; Refraction ; Sea level ; Subsea permafrost
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 2 (2012): 553, doi:10.1038/srep00553.
    Description: Sea surface temperature imagery, satellite altimetry, and a surface drifter track reveal an unusual tilt in the Gulf Stream path that brought the Gulf Stream to 39.9°N near the Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak—200 km north of its mean position—in October 2011, while a large meander brought Gulf Stream water within 12 km of the shelfbreak in December 2011. Near-bottom temperature measurements from lobster traps on the outer continental shelf south of New England show distinct warming events (temperature increases exceeding 6°C) in November and December 2011. Moored profiler measurements over the continental slope show high salinities and temperatures, suggesting that the warm water on the continental shelf originated in the Gulf Stream. The combination of unusual water properties over the shelf and slope in late fall and the subsequent mild winter may affect seasonal stratification and habitat selection for marine life over the continental shelf in 2012.
    Description: Profiler data were made available by the Ocean Observatory Initiative (OOI) during the construction phase of the project. The OOI is funded by the National Science Foundation and managed by the Consortium for Ocean Leadership. Drifter data were provided by Tim Shaw and David Calhoun at Cape Fear Community College.GGGwas supported by NSFGrant OCE-1129125. RET was supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region. MA was supported by the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists.
    Keywords: Ecology ; Climate change ; Atmospheric science ; Oceanography
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2838–2852, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02754.x.
    Description: Arctic vegetation is characterized by high spatial variability in plant functional type (PFT) composition and gross primary productivity (P). Despite this variability, the two main drivers of P in sub-Arctic tundra are leaf area index (LT) and total foliar nitrogen (NT). LT and NT have been shown to be tightly coupled across PFTs in sub-Arctic tundra vegetation, which simplifies up-scaling by allowing quantification of the main drivers of P from remotely sensed LT. Our objective was to test the LT–NT relationship across multiple Arctic latitudes and to assess LT as a predictor of P for the pan-Arctic. Including PFT-specific parameters in models of LT–NT coupling provided only incremental improvements in model fit, but significant improvements were gained from including site-specific parameters. The degree of curvature in the LT–NT relationship, controlled by a fitted canopy nitrogen extinction co-efficient, was negatively related to average levels of diffuse radiation at a site. This is consistent with theoretical predictions of more uniform vertical canopy N distributions under diffuse light conditions. Higher latitude sites had higher average leaf N content by mass (NM), and we show for the first time that LT–NT coupling is achieved across latitudes via canopy-scale trade-offs between NM and leaf mass per unit leaf area (LM). Site-specific parameters provided small but significant improvements in models of P based on LT and moss cover. Our results suggest that differences in LT–NT coupling between sites could be used to improve pan-Arctic models of P and we provide unique evidence that prevailing radiation conditions can significantly affect N allocation over regional scales.
    Description: This work was supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation to the Marine Biological Laboratory including grants # OPP-0352897, DEB-0423385, and DEB-0444592.
    Keywords: Carbon balance ; Climate change ; Gross primary production ; Diffuse radiation ; Tundra vegetation ; CO2 flux ; Specific leaf area ; Light extinction ; Nitrogen extinction
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Inter-Research, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of Inter-Research for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Ecology Progress Series 310 (2006): 1-14, doi:10.3354/meps310001.
    Description: We assessed the digestibility and utilization of ice algae and phytoplankton by the shallow, subtidal benthos in Ny Ålesund (Kongsfjord) on Svalbard (79°N, 12°E) using chlorophyll a (chl a), essential fatty acids (EFAs) and stable isotopes as tracers of food consumption and assimilation. Intact benthic communities in sediment cores and individuals of dominant benthic taxa were given ice algae, phytoplankton, 13C-enriched ice algae or a no food addition control for 19 to 32 d. Ice algae and phytoplankton had significantly different isotopic signatures and relative concentrations of fatty acids. In the food addition cores, sediment concentrations of chl a and the EFA C20:5(n-3) were elevated by 80 and 93%, respectively, compared to the control after 12 h, but decreased to background levels by 19 d, suggesting that both ice algae and phytoplankton were rapidly consumed. Whole core respiration rates in the ice algae treatments were 1.4 times greater than in the other treatments within 12 h of food addition. In the ice algae treatment, both suspension and deposit feeding taxa from 3 different phyla (Mollusca, Annelida and Sipuncula) exhibited significant enrichment in δ13C values compared to the control. Deposit feeders (15% uptake), however, exhibited significantly greater uptake of the 13C-enriched ice algae tracer than suspension feeders (3% uptake). Our study demonstrates that ice algae are readily consumed and assimilated by the Arctic benthos, and may be preferentially selected by some benthic species (i.e. deposit feeders) due to their elevated EFA content, thus serving as an important component of the Arctic benthic food web.
    Description: Funding for this study came from the National Science Foundation (Grant numbers OPP- 0514115 to W.G.A.; OPP-0222410 to L.M.C.; OPP-0222408 to M.-Y.S.; OPP0222500 to G.R.L.), the Norwegian Research Council (Grant number 151815-720 to M.L.C.), the Howard Hughes Medical Institute through Bates College and the Maine Marine Research Fund.
    Keywords: Ice algae ; Phytoplankton ; Food quality ; Arctic benthos ; Climate change ; Stable isotopes ; Essential fatty acids ; Svalbard
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1.
    Description: We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and 75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73° S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adélie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adélies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.
    Description: This project was funded by the World Wildlife Fund and the National Science Foundation, NSF grant OPP-0440643 (D. G. Ainley), and a Marie-Curie Fellowship to S. Jenouvrier.
    Keywords: Adelie penguin ; Antarctica ; Climate change ; Climate modeling ; Emperor Penguin ; Habitat optimum ; Sea ice ; 2°C warming
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 91 (2010): 2883–2897, doi:10.1890/09-1641.1.
    Description: The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture–recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001–2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004–2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in λ in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log λs, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log λs ≈ − 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with “business as usual” (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.
    Description: We acknowledge primary funding for model development and analysis from the U.S. Geological Survey and additional funding from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0343820 and DEB-0816514), NOAA, the Ocean Life Institute and the Arctic Research Initiative at WHOI, and the Institute of Arctic Biology at the University of Alaska–Fairbanks. Funding for the capture–recapture effort in 2001–2006 was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Canadian Wildlife Service, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of the Northwest Territories, and the Polar Continental Shelf Project, Ottawa, Canada.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Demography ; IPCC ; LTRE analysis ; Matrix population models ; Polar bear ; Sea ice ; Stochastic growth rate ; Stochastic models ; Ursus maritimus
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ecology 99 (2011): 1481-1488, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01859.x.
    Description: Climate change in northern high latitudes is predicted to be greater in winter rather than summer, yet little is known about the effects of winter climate change on northern ecosystems. Among the unknowns are the effects of an increasing frequency of acute, short-lasting winter warming events. Such events can damage higher plants exposed to warm, then returning cold, temperatures after snow melt and it is not known how bryophytes and lichens, which are of considerable ecological importance in high-latitude ecosystems, are affected by such warming events. However, even physiological adaptations of these cryptogams to winter environments in general are poorly understood. Here we describe findings from a novel field experiment that uses heating from infrared lamps and soil warming cables to simulate acute mid-winter warming events in a sub-Arctic heath. In particular, we report the growing season responses of the dominant lichen, Peltigera aphthosa, and bryophyte, Hylocomium splendens, to warming events in three consecutive winters. While summertime photosynthetic performance of P. aphthosa was unaffected by the winter warming treatments, H. splendens showed significant reductions of net photosynthetic rates and growth rates (of up to 48% and 52% respectively). Negative effects were evident already during the summer following the first winter warming event. While the lichen develops without going through critical phenological stages during which vulnerable organs are produced, the moss has a seasonal rhythm, which includes initiation of growth of young, freeze-susceptible shoot apices in the early growing season; these might be damaged by breaking of dormancy during warm winter events. Synthesis. Different sensitivities of the bryophyte and lichen species were unexpected, and illustrate that very little is known about the winter ecology of bryophytes and lichens from cold biomes in general. In sharp contrast to summer warming experiments that show increased vascular plant biomass and reduced lichen biomass, these results demonstrate that acute climate events in mid-winter may be readily tolerated by lichens, in contrast to previously observed sensitivity of co-occurring dwarf shrubs, suggesting winter climate change may compensate for (or even reverse) predicted lichen declines resulting from summer warming.
    Description: This research was supported by a grant from the Research Council of Norway (project no. 171542/V10) awarded to J.W.B., by a Leverhulme Trust (UK) grant to G.K.P. and T.V.C. (grant F/00 118/AV), by ATANS grants (EU Transnational Access Program, FP6 Contract no. 506004) to J.W.B., S.B., M.Z. and G.K.P., and by the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research. J.W.B.’s position at the Tromsø University Museum was financed by the Norwegian-Swedish Research School in Biosystematics, which received funding from the Research Council of Norway and the Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre.
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Ecophysiology ; Extreme events ; Hylocomium splendens ; Lichenized ascomycete ; Moss ; Peltigera aphthosa ; Plant–climate interactions ; Warming experiment
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L06602, doi:10.1029/2010GL046573.
    Description: Iron is an essential micronutrient that limits primary productivity in much of the ocean, including the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). However, the processes that transport iron to the ocean surface are poorly quantified. We combine satellite and meteorological data to provide the first description of widespread dust transport from coastal Alaska into the GoA. Dust is frequently transported from glacially-derived sediment at the mouths of several rivers, the most prominent of which is the Copper River. These dust events occur most frequently in autumn, when coastal river levels are low and riverbed sediments are exposed. The dust plumes are transported several hundred kilometers beyond the continental shelf into iron-limited waters. We estimate the mass of dust transported from the Copper River valley during one 2006 dust event to be between 25–80 ktons. Based on conservative estimates, this equates to a soluble iron loading of 30–200 tons. We suggest the soluble Fe flux from dust originating in glaciofluvial sediment deposits from the entire GoA coastline is two to three times larger, and is comparable to the annual Fe flux to GoA surface waters from eddies of coastal origin. Given that glaciers are retreating in the coastal GoA region and in other locations, it is important to examine whether fluxes of dust are increasing from glacierized landscapes to the ocean, and to assess the impact of associated Fe on marine ecosystems.
    Description: We appreciate support from the USGS CMGP, NCCWSC, the Mendenhall postdoc program, the Woods Hole PEP intern program, and from NASA‐IDS.
    Keywords: Dust ; Glacier ; Iron ; Aerosol ; Climate change ; Micronutrient
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C03026, doi:10.1029/2010JC006670.
    Description: A regional coupled model is used for a dynamic downscaling over the tropical Atlantic based on a global warming simulation carried out with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1. The regional coupled model features a realistic representation of equatorial ocean dynamical processes such as the tropical instability waves (TIWs) that are not adequately simulated in many global coupled climate models. The coupled downscaling hence provides a unique opportunity to assess their response and impact in a changing climate. Under global warming, both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall in the tropical northeast (South) Atlantic. Given this asymmetric change in mean state, the regional model produces the intensified near-surface cross-equatorial southerly wind and zonal currents. The equatorial cold tongue exhibits a reduced surface warming due to the enhanced upwelling. It is mainly associated with the increased vertical velocities driven by cross-equatorial wind, in contrast to the equatorial Pacific, where thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling and zonal currents in turn amplify the dynamic instability of the equatorial ocean, thereby intensifying TIWs. The increased eddy heat flux significantly warms the equator and counters the effect of enhanced upwelling. Zonal eddy heat flux makes the largest contribution, suggesting a need for sustained monitoring of TIWs with spatially denser observational arrays in the equatorial oceans. Overall, results suggest that eddy heat flux is an important factor that may impact the mean state warming of equatorial oceans, as it does in the current climate.
    Description: H.S. acknowledges the support from the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI. H.S. and S.‐P.X. are thankful for support from NOAA, NSF, and the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ocean mesoscale eddy ; Equatorial Atlantic
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology Letters 12 (2009): E15-E18, doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01332.x.
    Description: Hartley et al. question whether reduction in Rmass, under experimental warming, arises because of the biomass method. We show the method they treat as independent yields the same result. We describe why the substrate-depletion hypothesis cannot alone explain observed responses, and urge caution in the interpretation of the seasonal data.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and U.S. National Science Foundation grants to the Coweeta LTER program.
    Keywords: Acclimation ; Adaptation ; Soil respiration ; Thermal biology ; Temperature ; Carbon cycling ; Climate change ; Climate warming ; Microbial community ; CO2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.
    Description: Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.
    Description: The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Streams ; Ecosystem dynamics ; Sediment ; Thermokarst ; Water quality
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C12 (2003): 3384, doi:10.1029/2002JC001347.
    Description: The decade of the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century, while the year 1998 was the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques, with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest months. Satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (wind), and ocean hydrographic data are examined to gain insights into this warming phenomenon. Areas of ice-free water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic are found to have followed a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about 3 years between the eastern and western regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in 1993 and 1998 in the western region and in 1995 in the eastern region. The area of open water in 1998 was the largest ever observed in the western region and occurred concurrently with large surface temperature anomalies in the area and adjacent regions. This also occurred at a time when the atmospheric circulation changed from predominantly cyclonic in 1996 to anticyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrographic measurements over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 indicate a warming and significant freshening in the top layer of the ocean, suggesting increases in ice melt and/or river runoff. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys at depths of 8, 45, and 75 m confirm these results and show large interannual changes during the 1996–1998 period. Surface temperature data show a general warming in the region that is highly correlated with observed decline in summer sea ice, while hydrographic data suggest that in 1997 and 1998, the upper part of the ocean was unusually fresh and warm compared to available data between 1956 and 1996.
    Description: Deployments of the IOEB were supported by the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC).
    Keywords: Arctic Sea ice ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Wind ; Buoy ; Hydrography
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): D22S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008521.
    Description: We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with climate variability, increasing CO2, and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961–2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3 and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O3 could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O3 on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O3 effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O3, as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors, should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O3 concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future, and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO2. Our estimation of O3 impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China, however, must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O3 data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments.
    Description: This research is funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C).
    Keywords: Air pollution ; Carbon storage ; China ; Climate change ; Net primary productivity ; Tropospheric ozone
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Plankton Research 32 (2010): 1355-1368, doi:10.1093/plankt/fbq062.
    Description: Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.
    Description: This study was supported by NSF grants to R.J.: OCE-0727033, 0815838 and 0732152. NSF grants to A.C.T.: OCE-0535386, 0815051 and 0814413. NSF grant to J.A.R.: OCE 0815336.
    Keywords: Plankton ; Phenology ; Life history ; Climate change
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Soil Biology and Biochemistry 42 (2010): 611-617, doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2009.12.011.
    Description: Arctic climate change is expected to lead to a greater frequency of extreme winter warming events. During these events, temperatures rapidly increase to well above 0ºC for a number of days, which can lead to snow melt at the landscape scale, loss of insulating snow cover and warming of soils. However, upon return of cold ambient temperatures, soils can freeze deeper and may experience more freeze-thaw cycles due to the absence of a buffering snow layer. Such loss of snow cover and changes in soil temperatures may be critical for litter decomposition since a stable soil microclimate during winter (facilitated by snow cover) allows activity of soil organisms. Indeed, a substantial part of fresh litter decomposition may occur in winter. However, the impacts of extreme winter warming events on soil processes such as decomposition have never before been investigated. With this study we quantify the impacts of winter warming events on fresh litter decomposition using field simulations and lab studies. Winter warming events were simulated in sub-Arctic heathland using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables during March (typically the period of maximum snow depth) in three consecutive years of 2007, 2008, and 2009. During the winters of 2008 and 2009, simulations were also run in January (typically a period of shallow snow cover) on separate plots. The lab study included soil cores with and without fresh litter subjected to winter warming simulations in climate chambers. Litter decomposition of common plant species was unaffected by winter warming events simulated either in the lab (litter of Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii), or field (litter of Vaccinium vitis-idaea, and B. pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) with the exception of Vaccinium myrtillus (a common deciduous dwarf shrub) that showed less mass loss in response to winter warming events. Soil CO2 efflux measured in the lab study was (as expected) highly responsive to winter warming events but surprisingly fresh litter decomposition was not. Most fresh litter mass loss in the lab occurred during the first 3-4 weeks (simulating the period after litter fall). In contrast to past understanding, this suggests that winter decomposition of fresh litter is almost non-existent and observations of substantial mass loss across the cold season seen here and in other studies may result from leaching in autumn, prior to the onset of “true” winter. Further, our findings surprisingly suggest that extreme winter warming events do not affect fresh litter decomposition.
    Description: This research was supported by a Leverhulme Trust (UK) grant to GKP and TVC, by a grant from the Norwegian Research Council awarded to JWB, and by ATANS grants (EU Transnational Access Programme) to JWB, GKP and SB.
    Keywords: Arctic ; Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii ; Climate change ; Decomposition ; Extreme weather ; Freeze-thaw ; Snow ; Vaccinium vitis-idaea ; V. myrtillus ; Winter warming event
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  • 45
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 1262-1265, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2803.1.
    Description: There is considerable interest in detecting a long-term trend in hurricane intensity possibly related to large-scale ocean warming. This effort is complicated by the paucity of wind speed measurements for hurricanes occurring in the early part of the observational record. Here, results are presented regarding the maximum observed wind speed in a sparsely randomly sampled hurricane based on a model of the evolution of wind speed over the lifetime of a hurricane.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223.
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Wind ; Tropical cyclones ; Wind gusts ; Statistical techniques ; Climate change
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): F03033, doi:10.1029/2009JF001486.
    Description: When modeling the large-scale (〉 km) evolution of coastline morphology, the influence of natural forces is not the only consideration; ongoing direct human manipulations can substantially drive geomorphic change. In this paper, we couple a human component to a numerical model of large-scale coastline evolution, incorporating beach “nourishment” (periodically placing sand on the beach, also called “beach replenishment” or “beach fill”). Beach nourishment is the most prevalent means humans employ to alter the natural shoreline system in our case study, the Carolina coastline. Beach nourishment can cause shorelines adjacent to those that are nourished to shift both seaward and landward. When we further consider how changes to storm behaviors could change wave climates, the magnitude of morphological change induced by beach nourishment can rival that expected from sea level rise and affect the coast as far as tens of kilometers away from the nourishment site. In some instances, nonlocal processes governing large-scale cuspate-cape coastline evolution may transmit the human morphological “signal” over surprisingly large (hundreds of kilometer) distances.
    Description: The National Science Foundation (DEB 0507987) and the Duke University Center on Global Change supported this work.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Beach nourishment ; Climate change
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of IOP Publishing for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 4 (2009): 044008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044008.
    Description: Rising sea level threatens existing coastal wetlands. Overall ecosystems could often survive by migrating inland, if adjacent lands remained vacant. On the basis of 131 state and local land use plans, we estimate that almost 60% of the land below 1 m along the US Atlantic coast is expected to be developed and thus unavailable for the inland migration of wetlands. Less than 10% of the land below 1 m has been set aside for conservation. Environmental regulators routinely grant permits for shore protection structures (which block wetland migration) on the basis of a federal finding that these structures have no cumulative environmental impact. Our results suggest that shore protection does have a cumulative impact. If sea level rise is taken into account, wetland policies that previously seemed to comply with federal law probably violate the Clean Water Act.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Adaptation ; Land use planning ; Sea-level rise ; Wetland migration ; Shore protection
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  • 48
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Plant ecology 82 (1989), S. 55-58 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Boreal forest ; Climate change ; Deciduous forest ; Frost resistance ; Vegetation distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The observed northern limit of the deciduous forest formation in North America is shown to agree closely with the reported −40°C average annual minimum temperature isotherm. This indicates that supercooling as a means of resisting freezing stresses may set a physiological limit on the northern expansion of the deciduous forest formation.
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  • 49
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Plant ecology 79 (1988), S. 41-49 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Age structure ; Climate change ; Conifer regeneration gap ; Dacrydium biforme ; Disturbance ; Forest dynamics ; Size structure ; Westland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Size and age structure analysis were used to reconstruct the population dynamics of six apparently old and stable stands dominated by the conifers Libocedrus bidwillii and/or Dacrydium biforme in Camp Creek, Westland, New Zealand. All stands contained relatively even-aged groups of Libocedrus that had probably originated after either mass movement or windthrow. The age distributions of stands reflected the effects of disturbances 200–400 yr ago. There was no evidence to support synchronous failure of regeneration of Libocedrus and Dacrydium biforme. Between 1600 and 1800 A.D., the period of the postulated conifer regeneration gap, over 70% of trees of these species had established. A lack of Libocedrus regeneration over the last 200 yr reflects a lack of disturbance over that time. Because of the dominating influence of disturbances and other factors it may be inappropriate to use tree population structures alone to substantiate or refute claims of recent climate change.
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