ALBERT

Description: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

Description: Many coastal oceans experience not only increased loads of nutrients but also changes in the stoichiometry of nutrient supply. Excess supply of nitrogen and stable or decreased supply of silicon lower silicon to nitrogen (Si:N) ratios, which may decrease diatom proportion in phytoplankton. To examine how Si:N ratios affect plankton community composition and food web structure, we performed a mesocosm experiment where we manipulated Si:N ratios and copepod abundance in a Baltic Sea plankton community. In high Si:N treatments, diatoms dominated. Some of them were likely spared from grazing unexpectedly resulting in higher diatom biomass under high copepod grazing. With declining Si:N ratios, dinoflagellates became more abundant under low and picoplankton under high copepod grazing. This altered plankton food web structure: under high Si:N ratios, edible diatoms were directly accessible food for copepods, while under low Si:N ratios, microzooplankton and phago-mixotrophs (mixoplankton) were a more important food source for mesograzers. The response of copepods to changes in the phytoplankton community was complex and copepod density-dependent. We suggest that declining Si:N ratios favor microzoo- and mixoplankton leading to increased complexity of planktonic food webs. Consequences on higher trophic levels will, however, likely be moderated by edibility, nutritional value or toxicity of dominant phytoplankton species.

Description: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

Description: Quantification and attribution of the food web changes associated with the invasion of non-indigenous species in the marine realm often remain a challenge. One of the pelagic non-indigenous species of concern in the recent history of aquatic bioinvasions is the predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi, which invaded the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. While several studies have reported immediate declines in abundances of its potential prey, the long-term effects of C. pengoi on the food webs remain to be examined. Based on the long-term time series (1968–2018) in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea), we found significant declines in abundance of the cladoceran Pleopis spp. and copepod Eurytemora affinis by 90 and 80%, respectively, are associated with the invasion of C. pengoi as well as significant alterations in seasonal abundance patterns of Pleopis spp., E. affinis and cladoceran Bosmina spp. The invasion of the non-indigenous predator has led to the changed prey abundance–temperature relationships. Special caution was taken in data preprocessing, to minimize the likelihood that observed changes in the zooplankton prey could be associated with factors other than the invasion of C. pengoi, such as temperature and storminess.

Description: There is a zonally oriented teleconnection pattern over the high-latitude Eurasian continent, which is maintained through baroclinic energy conversion. In this study, we investigate the unique features of the maintenance mechanism of this teleconnection. It is found that the baroclinic energy conversion is most efficient in both the mid-troposphere and the lower troposphere, and that the baroclinic energy conversion in the lower troposphere is comparable to that in the mid-troposphere. Further results indicate that the basic state plays a crucial role in the baroclinic energy conversion. For both the mid and lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability is low and the Coriolis parameter is large over high-latitude Eurasia, favoring strong baroclinic energy conversion. Particularly, in the lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability exhibits a clear land-sea contrast, favoring baroclinic energy conversion over the continents rather than the oceans. Furthermore, in the lower troposphere, the in-phase configuration of the meridional wind and temperature anomalies, which results from the strong meridional gradient of mean temperature around the north edge of the Eurasian continent, also significantly contributes to baroclinic energy conversion. This study highlights the role of the basic state of temperature rather than zonal wind in maintaining the high-latitude teleconnection through baroclinic energy conversion.

Description: Subtropical dry zones, located in the Hadley cells' subsidence regions, strongly influence regional climate as well as outgoing longwave radiation. Changes in these dry zones could have significant impact on surface climate as well as on the atmospheric energy budget. This study investigates the behavior of upper-tropospheric dry zones in a changing climate, using the variable upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH), calculated from climate model experiment output as well as from radiances measured with satellite-based sensors. The global UTH distribution shows that dry zones form a belt in the subtropical winter hemisphere. In the summer hemisphere they concentrate over the eastern ocean basins, where the descent regions of the subtropical anticyclones are located. Recent studies with model and satellite data have found tendencies of increasing dryness at the poleward edges of the subtropical subsidence zones. However, UTH calculated from climate simulations with 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows these tendencies only for parts of the winter-hemispheric dry belts. In the summer hemisphere, even though differences exist between the simulations, UTH is increasing in most dry zones, particularly in the South and North Pacific Ocean. None of the summer dry zones is expanding in these simulations. Upper-tropospheric dry zones estimated from observational data do not show any robust signs of change since 1979. Apart from a weak drying tendency at the poleward edge of the southern winter-hemispheric dry belt in infrared measurements, nothing indicates that the subtropical dry belts have expanded poleward.

Description: It might be impossible to truly fathom the magnitude of the threat that global-mean sea level rise poses. However, conceptualizing the scale of the solutions required to protect ourselves against global-mean sea level rise, aids in our ability to acknowledge and understand the threat that sea level rise poses. On these grounds, we here discuss a means to protect over 25 million people and important economical regions in northern Europe against sea level rise. We propose the construction of a Northern European Enclosure Dam (NEED) that stretches between France, the United Kingdom and Norway. NEED may seem an overwhelming and unrealistic solution at first. However, our preliminary study suggests that NEED is potentially favorable financially, but also in scale, impacts and challenges compared to that of alternative solutions, such as (managed) migrations and that of country-by-country protection efforts. The mere realization that a solution as considerable as NEED might be a viable and cost-effective protection measure is illustrative of the extraordinary global threat of global-mean sea level rise that we are facing. As such, the concept of constructing NEED showcases the extent of protection efforts that are required if mitigation efforts fail to limit sea level rise.

Description: The copepod Acartia tonsa is a key component of a wide range of marine ecosystems, linking energy transfer from phytoplankton to higher trophic levels, and has a central role in productivity and biogeochemistry. The interaction of end-of-century global warming and ocean acidification scenarios with testing moderate temperature effects on a seminatural copepod community is needed to understand future community functioning. Here, we deployed a mesocosm experimental set-up with a full factorial design using two temperatures (13°C and 19°C) crossed with a pCO2 gradient ranging from ambient (550 μatm) to 3000 μatm. We used the natural bacteria, phyto- and microzooplankton species composition and biomass of the Kiel Bight and tested the response of A. tonsa development, carbon growth, mortality, size and condition. The tested traits were differently affected by the interaction of temperature and acidification. Ocean acidification increased development, carbon growth, size and mortality under the warming scenario of 19°C. At 13°C mortality rates decreased, while carbon growth, size and condition increased with acidification. We conclude from our experimental approach that a single species shows a variety of responses depending on the focal functional trait. Trait-specific mesozooplankton responses need to be further investigated and compared between geographical regions, seasons and taxonomic groups.

Description: The comparison of equivalent neutral winds obtained from (a) four WHOI buoys in the subtropics and (b) scatterometer estimates at those locations reveals a root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 0.56-0.76 m/s. To investigate this RMS difference, different buoy wind error sources were examined. These buoys are particularly well suited to examine two important sources of buoy wind errors because: (1) redundant anemometers and a comparison with numerical flow simulations allow us to quantitatively assess flow distortion errors, and (2) one-minute sampling at the buoys allows us to examine the sensitivity of buoy temporal sampling/averaging in the buoy-scatterometer comparisons. The inter-anemometer difference varies as a function of wind direction relative to the buoy wind vane and is consistent with the effects of flow distortion expected based on numerical flow simulations. Comparison between the anemometers and scatterometer winds supports the interpretation that the inter-anemometer disagreement, which can be up to 5% of the wind speed, is due to flow distortion. These insights motivate an empirical correction to the individual anemometer records and subsequent comparison with scatterometer estimates show good agreement.

Description: The North Atlantic (NA) basin-averaged sea surface temperature (NASST) is often used as an index to study climate variability in the NA sector. However, there is still some debate on what drives it. Based on observations and climate models, an analysis of the different influences on the NASST index and its low-pass filtered version, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index, is provided. In particular, the relationships of the two indices with some of its mechanistic drivers including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. In observations, the NASST index accounts for significant SST variability over the tropical and subpolar NA. The NASST index is shown to lump together SST variability originating from different mechanisms operating on different time scales. The AMO index emphasizes the subpolar SST variability. In the climate models, the SST-anomaly pattern associated with the NASST index is similar. The AMO index, however, only represents pronounced SST variability over the extratropical NA, and this variability is significantly linked to the AMOC. There is a sensitivity of this linkage to the cold NA SST bias observed in many climate models. Models suffering from a large cold bias exhibit a relatively weak linkage between the AMOC and AMO and vice versa. Finally, the basin-averaged SST in its unfiltered form, which has been used to question a strong influence of ocean dynamics on NA SST variability, mixes together multiple types of variability occurring on different time scales and therefore underemphasizes the role of ocean dynamics in the multidecadal variability of NA SSTs.