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  • Cambridge University Press  (14,959)
  • 2020-2023  (19)
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  • 1
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Antarctic Science, Cambridge University Press, 33(6), pp. 575-595, ISSN: 0954-1020
    Publication Date: 2022-01-13
    Description: The waters along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) have experienced warming and increased freshwater inputs from melting sea ice and glaciers in recent decades. Challenges exist in understanding the consequences of these changes on the inorganic carbon system in this ecologically important and highly productive ecosystem. Distributions of dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), total alkalinity (AT) and nutrients revealed key physical, biological and biogeochemical controls of the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ωaragonite) in different water masses across the WAP shelf during the summer. Biological production in spring and summer dominated changes in surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +1.39; ∼90%) relative to underlying Winter Water. Sea-ice and glacial meltwater constituted a minor source of AT that increased surface water Ωaragonite (ΔΩaragonite up to +0.07; ∼13%). Remineralization of organic matter and an influx of carbon-rich brines led to cross-shelf decreases in Ωaragonite in Winter Water and Circumpolar Deep Water. A strong biological carbon pump over the shelf created Ωaragonite oversaturation in surface waters and suppression of Ωaragonite in subsurface waters. Undersaturation of aragonite occurred at 〈 ∼1000 m. Ongoing changes along the WAP will impact the biologically driven and meltwater-driven processes that influence the vulnerability of shelf waters to calcium carbonate undersaturation in the future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-06-22
    Description: Pliocene–Quaternary faults are relevant structures with which to constrain the seismotectonic context and contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard of a region. Many of these faults, however, do not show clear surface evidence even when releasing earthquakes. For these reasons they can be extremely dangerous as they receive relatively little attention and can be difficult to identify. From among the various surface geology studies and/or palaeoseismological investigations, we focus our attention on the integration of different datasets such as seismic reflection profiles, surface kinematic data and the relocation of seismological data, which make it possible to identify and characterize active faults whose dimension and earthquake potential would otherwise not be large enough to make them identifiable. We take as an example the Montespertoli NE-trending fault in southern Tuscany (central Italy) with which we associate the 2016 M=3.9 Castelfiorentino earthquake. This structure is part of a wider (in the order of 15–20 km) crustal-scale shear zone, which may be responsible for strong historical earthquakes in the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 853 - 872
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: active faults ; seismic faults ; Earthquakes ; strike-slip faults ; inner Northern Apennines ; solid earth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hughen, K. A., & Heaton, T. J. Updated Cariaco Basin C-14 calibration dataset from 0-60 cal kyr BP. Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 1001-1043, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.53.
    Description: We present new updates to the calendar and radiocarbon (14C) chronologies for the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela. Calendar ages were generated by tuning abrupt climate shifts in Cariaco Basin sediments to those in speleothems from Hulu Cave. After the original Cariaco-Hulu calendar age model was published, Hulu Cave δ18O records have been augmented with increased temporal resolution and a greater number of U/Th dates. These updated Hulu Cave records provide increased accuracy as well as precision in the final Cariaco calendar age model. The depth scale for the Ocean Drilling Program Site 1002D sediment core, the primary source of samples for 14C dating, has been corrected to account for missing sediment from a core break, eliminating age-depth anomalies that afflicted the earlier calendar age models. Individual 14C dates for the Cariaco Basin remain unchanged from previous papers, although detailed comparisons of the Cariaco calibration dataset to those from Hulu Cave and Lake Suigetsu suggest that the Cariaco marine reservoir age may have shifted systematically during the past. We describe these recent changes to the Cariaco datasets and provide the data in a comprehensive format that will facilitate use by the community.
    Description: K.A. Hughen was supported by funds from U.S. NSF grant #OCE-1657191, and by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI. T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9, “Improving the Measurement of Time Using Radiocarbon”.
    Keywords: Calibration ; Climate ; Radiocarbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baker, M. G., Aster, R. C., Wiens, D. A., Nyblade, A., Bromirski, P. D., Gerstoft, P., & Stephen, R. A. Teleseismic earthquake wavefields observed on the Ross Ice Shelf. Journal of Glaciology, 67(261), (2021): 58-74, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.83.
    Description: Observations of teleseismic earthquakes using broadband seismometers on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) must contend with environmental and structural processes that do not exist for land-sited seismometers. Important considerations are: (1) a broadband, multi-mode ambient wavefield excited by ocean gravity wave interactions with the ice shelf; (2) body wave reverberations produced by seismic impedance contrasts at the ice/water and water/seafloor interfaces and (3) decoupling of the solid Earth horizontal wavefield by the sub-shelf water column. We analyze seasonal and geographic variations in signal-to-noise ratios for teleseismic P-wave (0.5–2.0 s), S-wave (10–15 s) and surface wave (13–25 s) arrivals relative to the RIS noise field. We use ice and water layer reverberations generated by teleseismic P-waves to accurately estimate the sub-station thicknesses of these layers. We present observations consistent with the theoretically predicted transition of the water column from compressible to incompressible mechanics, relevant for vertically incident solid Earth waves with periods longer than 3 s. Finally, we observe symmetric-mode Lamb waves generated by teleseismic S-waves incident on the grounding zones. Despite their complexity, we conclude that teleseismic coda can be utilized for passive imaging of sub-shelf Earth structure, although longer deployments relative to conventional land-sited seismometers will be necessary to acquire adequate data.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF grants PLR-1142518, 1141916, 1142126, 1246151, 1246416 and OPP-1744852 and 1744856.
    Keywords: Glacier geophysics ; Ice shelves ; Seismology
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in McNichol, A., Key, R., & Guilderson, T. Global ocean radiocarbon programs. Radiocarbon, (2022): 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1017/rdc.2022.17.
    Description: The importance of studying the radiocarbon content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DI14C) in the oceans has been recognized for decades. Starting with the GEOSECS program in the 1970s, 14C sampling has been a part of most global survey programs. Early results were used to study air-sea gas exchange while the more recent results are critical for helping calibrate ocean general circulation models used to study the effects of climate change. Here we summarize the major programs and discuss some of the important insights the results are starting to provide.
    Description: Authors received funding from the National Science Foundation OCE-85865400 (APM) and a Woods Hole Oceanographic Technical Staff Award (APM).
    Keywords: Dissolved inorganic carbon ; Ocean models ; Oceanography ; Radiocarbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ackley, S. F., Perovich, D. K., Maksym, T., Weissling, B., & Xie, H. Surface flooding of Antarctic summer sea ice. Annals of Glaciology, 61(82), (2020): 117-126, doi:10.1017/aog.2020.22.
    Description: The surface flooding of Antarctic sea ice in summer covers 50% or more of the sea-ice area in the major summer ice packs, the western Weddell and the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas. Two CRREL ice mass-balance buoys were deployed on the Amundsen Sea pack in late December 2010 from the icebreaker Oden, bridging the summer period (January–February 2011). Temperature records from thermistors embedded vertically in the snow and ice showed progressive increases in the depth of the flooded layer (up to 0.3–0.35 m) on the ice cover during January and February. While the snow depth was relatively unchanged from accumulation (〈10 cm), ice thickness decreased by up to a meter from bottom melting during this period. Contemporaneous with the high bottom melting, under-ice water temperatures up to 1°C above the freezing point were found. The high temperature arises from solar heating of the upper mixed layer which can occur when ice concentration in the local area falls and lower albedo ocean water is exposed to radiative heating. The higher proportion of snow ice found in the Amundsen Sea pack ice therefore results from both winter snowfall and summer ice bottom melt found here that can lead to extensive surface flooding.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grant to UTSA, ANT-0839053-Sea Ice System in Antarctic Summer (S.F. Ackley, H. Xie and B. Weissling), and to WHOI, ANT-1341513 (T. Maksym), and by the NASA Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments or NASA-CAMEE at UTSA, NASA #80NSSC19M0194 (S.F. Ackley, H. Xie, B.Weissling).
    Keywords: Ice/ocean interactions ; Sea ice ; Sea-ice growth and decay ; Snow/ice surface processes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Reimer, P. J., Austin, W. E. N., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Blackwell, P. G., Ramsey, C. B., Butzin, M., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Friedrich, M., Grootes, P. M., Guilderson, T. P., Hajdas, I., Heaton, T. J., Hogg, A. G., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Manning, S. W., Muscheler, R., Palmer, J. G., Pearson, C., van der Plicht, J., Reimer, R. W., Richards, D. A., Scott, E. M., Southon, J. R., Turney, C. S. M., Wacker, L., Adolphi, F., Buentgen, U., Capano, M., Fahrni, S. M., Fogtmann-Schulz, A., Friedrich, R., Koehler, P., Kudsk, S., Miyake, F., Olsen, J., Reinig, F., Sakamoto, M., Sookdeo, A., & Talamo, S. The Intcal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 725-757, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.41.
    Description: Radiocarbon (14C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.
    Description: We would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants NSFC 41888101 and NSFC 41731174, the 111 program of China (D19002), U.S. NSF Grant 1702816, and the Malcolm H. Wiener Foundation for support for research that contributed to the IntCal20 curve. The work on the Swiss and German YD trees was funded by the German Science foundation and the Swiss National Foundation (grant number: 200021L_157187). The operation in Aix-en-Provence is funded by the EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE, the Collège de France and the ANR project CARBOTRYDH (to EB). The work on the correlation of tree ring 14C with ice core 10Be was partially supported by the Swedish Research Council and the Knut and Alice Wallenberg foundation. M. Butzin was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as Research for Sustainable Development (FONA; http://www.fona.de) through the PalMod project (grant number: 01LP1505B). S. Talamo and M. Friedrich are funded by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No. 803147-RESOLUTION, awarded to ST). CA. Turney would like to acknowledge support of the Australian Research Council (FL100100195 and DP170104665). P. Reimer and W. Austin acknowledge the support of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/M004619/1). T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9. Other datasets and the IntCal20 database were created without external support through internal funding by the respective laboratories. We also would like to thank various institutions that provided funding or facilities for meetings.
    Keywords: Calibration curve ; Radiocarbon ; IntCal20
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Druffel, E., Beaupre, S., Grotheer, H., Lewis, C., McNichol, A., Mollenhauer, G., & Walker, B. Marine organic carbon and radiocarbon – present and future challenges. Radiocarbon, (2022): 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2021.105.
    Description: We discuss present and developing techniques for studying radiocarbon in marine organic carbon (C). Bulk DOC (dissolved organic C) Δ14C measurements reveal information about the cycling time and sources of DOC in the ocean, yet they are time consuming and need to be streamlined. To further elucidate the cycling of DOC, various fractions have been separated from bulk DOC, through solid phase extraction of DOC, and ultrafiltration of high and low molecular weight DOC. Research using 14C of DOC and particulate organic C separated into organic fractions revealed that the acid insoluble fraction is similar in 14C signature to that of the lipid fraction. Plans for utilizing this methodology are described. Studies using compound specific radiocarbon analyses to study the origin of biomarkers in the marine environment are reviewed and plans for the future are outlined. Development of ramped pyrolysis oxidation methods are discussed and scientific questions addressed. A modified elemental analysis (EA) combustion reactor is described that allows high particulate organic C sample throughput by direct coupling with the MIniCArbonDAtingSystem.
    Keywords: CSRA ; Dissolved organic carbon ; Methodology ; Organic carbon ; Radiocarbon
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Priscu, J. C., Kalin, J., Winans, J., Campbell, T., Siegfried, M. R., Skidmore, M., Dore, J. E., Leventer, A., Harwood, D. M., Duling, D., Zook, R., Burnett, J., Gibson, D., Krula, E., Mironov, A., McManis, J., Roberts, G., Rosenheim, B. E., Christner, B. C., Kasic, K., Fricker, H. A., Lyons, W. B., Barker, J., Bowling, M., Collins, B., Davis, C., Gagnon, A., Gardner, C., Gustafson, C., Kim, O-S., Li, W., Michaud, A., Patterson, M. O., Tranter, M., Ryan Venturelli, R., Trista Vick-Majors, T., & Elsworth, C. Scientific access into Mercer Subglacial Lake: scientific objectives, drilling operations and initial observations. Annals of Glaciology, 62(85–86), (2021): 340–352, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2021.10.
    Description: The Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA) Project accessed Mercer Subglacial Lake using environmentally clean hot-water drilling to examine interactions among ice, water, sediment, rock, microbes and carbon reservoirs within the lake water column and underlying sediments. A ~0.4 m diameter borehole was melted through 1087 m of ice and maintained over ~10 days, allowing observation of ice properties and collection of water and sediment with various tools. Over this period, SALSA collected: 60 L of lake water and 10 L of deep borehole water; microbes 〉0.2 μm in diameter from in situ filtration of ~100 L of lake water; 10 multicores 0.32–0.49 m long; 1.0 and 1.76 m long gravity cores; three conductivity–temperature–depth profiles of borehole and lake water; five discrete depth current meter measurements in the lake and images of ice, the lake water–ice interface and lake sediments. Temperature and conductivity data showed the hydrodynamic character of water mixing between the borehole and lake after entry. Models simulating melting of the ~6 m thick basal accreted ice layer imply that debris fall-out through the ~15 m water column to the lake sediments from borehole melting had little effect on the stratigraphy of surficial sediment cores.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation, Section for Antarctic Sciences, Antarctic Integrated System Science program as part of the interdisciplinary (Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA): Integrated study of carbon cycling in hydrologically-active subglacial environments) project (NSF-OPP 1543537, 1543396, 1543405, 1543453 and 1543441). Ok-Sun Kim was funded by the Korean Polar Research Institute. We are particularly thankful to the SALSA traverse personnel for crucial technical and logistical support. The United States Antarctic Program enabled our fieldwork; the New York Air National Guard and Kenn Borek Air provided air support; UNAVCO provided geodetic instrument support. Hot water drilling activities, including repair and upgrade modifications of the WISSARD hot water drill system, for the SALSA project were supported by a subaward from the Ice Drilling Program of Dartmouth College (NSF-PLR 1327315) to the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. J. Lawrence assisted with manuscript preparation. Finally, we are grateful to C. Dean, the SALSA Project Manager, and R. Ricards, SALSA Project Coordinator at McMurdo Station, for their organizational skills, and B. Huber of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory for providing the SBE39 PT sensors and the Nortek Aquadopp current meter and assisting with interpretation of the data. B. Huber also provided helpful input on programing and calibrating the SBE19PlusV2 6112 CTD.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; Basal ice ; Biogeochemistry ; Glacial sedimentology ; Subglacial lakes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tison, J.-L., Maksym, T., Fraser, A. D., Corkill, M., Kimura, N., Nosaka, Y., Nomura, D., Vancoppenolle, M., Ackley, S., Stammerjohn, S., Wauthy, S., Van der Linden, F., Carnat, G., Sapart, C., de Jong, J., Fripiat, F., & Delille, B. Physical and biological properties of early winter Antarctic sea ice in the Ross Sea. Annals of Glaciology, 61(83), (2020): 241–259, https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.43.
    Description: This work presents the results of physical and biological investigations at 27 biogeochemical stations of early winter sea ice in the Ross Sea during the 2017 PIPERS cruise. Only two similar cruises occurred in the past, in 1995 and 1998. The year 2017 was a specific year, in that ice growth in the Central Ross Sea was considerably delayed, compared to previous years. These conditions resulted in lower ice thicknesses and Chl-a burdens, as compared to those observed during the previous cruises. It also resulted in a different structure of the sympagic algal community, unusually dominated by Phaeocystis rather than diatoms. Compared to autumn-winter sea ice in the Weddell Sea (AWECS cruise), the 2017 Ross Sea pack ice displayed similar thickness distribution, but much lower snow cover and therefore nearly no flooding conditions. It is shown that contrasted dynamics of autumnal-winter sea-ice growth between the Weddell Sea and the Ross Sea impacted the development of the sympagic community. Mean/median ice Chl-a concentrations were 3–5 times lower at PIPERS, and the community status there appeared to be more mature (decaying?), based on Phaeopigments/Chl-a ratios. These contrasts are discussed in the light of temporal and spatial differences between the two cruises.
    Description: S. Stammerjohn was supported by the PIPERS and LTER Programs of the U.S. National Science Foundation, ANT-1341606 (S. Stammerjohn and J. Cassano, U Colorado) and ANT-0823101 (H. Ducklow, LDEO/Columbia University), respectively. Steve Ackley (UTSA) was supported by the PIPERS program of the U.S. National Science Foundation ANT-1341717 and by NASA Grant 80NSSC19M0194 to the Center for Adv. Meas. in Extreme Environments at UTSA.Ted Maksym (WHOI) was supported by the PIPERS program of the U.S. National Science Foundation ANT-1341513. This research was supported by the Belgian F.R.S-FNRS (project ISOGGAP and IODIne, contract T.0268.16 and J.0262.17, respectively). Fanny Van der Linden, Sarah Wauthy, Gauthier Carnat, Célia Sapart and Bruno Delille are PhD students, postdoctoral researchers and research associate, respectively, of the Belgian F.R.S.-FNRS. This work was also supported by the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centre program through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, and by the Australian Research Council's Special Research Initiative for Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). Daiki Nomura was supported by grants from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (#17H04715) and the National Institute for Polar Research through Project Research KP-303 (ROBOTICA) and #28-14.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; biogeochemistry ; sea ice
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, ,, IPCC AR6 WGII, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter03.pdf, Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2022-08-23
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 12
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR6 WGII, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR6 WGII, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FinalDraft_Chapter02.pdf, Cambridge University Press, 5 p., pp. 22-26
    Publication Date: 2022-06-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-07-20
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tan, S., Pratt, L. J., Voet, G., Cusack, J. M., Helfrich, K. R., Alford, M. H., Girton, J. B., & Carter, G. S. Hydraulic control of flow in a multi-passage system connecting two basins. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 940, (2022): A8, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2022.212.
    Description: When a fluid stream in a conduit splits in order to pass around an obstruction, it is possible that one branch will be critically controlled while the other remains not so. This is apparently the situation in Pacific Ocean abyssal circulation, where most of the northward flow of Antarctic bottom water passes through the Samoan Passage, where it is hydraulically controlled, while the remainder is diverted around the Manihiki Plateau and is not controlled. These observations raise a number of questions concerning the dynamics necessary to support such a regime in the steady state, the nature of upstream influence and the usefulness of rotating hydraulic theory to predict the partitioning of volume transport between the two paths, which assumes the controlled branch is inviscid. Through the use of a theory for constant potential vorticity flow and accompanying numerical model, we show that a steady-state regime similar to what is observed is dynamically possible provided that sufficient bottom friction is present in the uncontrolled branch. In this case, the upstream influence that typically exists for rotating channel flow is transformed into influence into how the flow is partitioned. As a result, the partitioning of volume flux can still be reasonably well predicted with an inviscid theory that exploits the lack of upstream influence.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants OCE-1029268, OCE-1029483, OCE-1657264, OCE-1657795, OCE-1657870 and OCE-1658027.
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Heaton, T. J., Koehler, P., Butzin, M., Bard, E., Reimer, R. W., Austin, W. E. N., Ramsey, C. B., Grootes, P. M., Hughen, K. A., Kromer, B., Reimer, P. J., Adkins, J., Burke, A., Cook, M. S., Olsen, J., & Skinner, L. C. Marine20-the marine radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55,000 cal BP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), (2020): 779-820, doi:10.1017/RDC.2020.68.
    Description: The concentration of radiocarbon (14C) differs between ocean and atmosphere. Radiocarbon determinations from samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment therefore need a marine-specific calibration curve and cannot be calibrated directly against the atmospheric-based IntCal20 curve. This paper presents Marine20, an update to the internationally agreed marine radiocarbon age calibration curve that provides a non-polar global-average marine record of radiocarbon from 0–55 cal kBP and serves as a baseline for regional oceanic variation. Marine20 is intended for calibration of marine radiocarbon samples from non-polar regions; it is not suitable for calibration in polar regions where variability in sea ice extent, ocean upwelling and air-sea gas exchange may have caused larger changes to concentrations of marine radiocarbon. The Marine20 curve is based upon 500 simulations with an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box-model of the global carbon cycle that has been forced by posterior realizations of our Northern Hemispheric atmospheric IntCal20 14C curve and reconstructed changes in CO2 obtained from ice core data. These forcings enable us to incorporate carbon cycle dynamics and temporal changes in the atmospheric 14C level. The box-model simulations of the global-average marine radiocarbon reservoir age are similar to those of a more complex three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. However, simplicity and speed of the box model allow us to use a Monte Carlo approach to rigorously propagate the uncertainty in both the historic concentration of atmospheric 14C and other key parameters of the carbon cycle through to our final Marine20 calibration curve. This robust propagation of uncertainty is fundamental to providing reliable precision for the radiocarbon age calibration of marine based samples. We make a first step towards deconvolving the contributions of different processes to the total uncertainty; discuss the main differences of Marine20 from the previous age calibration curve Marine13; and identify the limitations of our approach together with key areas for further work. The updated values for ΔR, the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age corrections required to calibrate against Marine20, can be found at the data base http://calib.org/marine/.
    Description: We would like to thank Jeremy Oakley and Richard Bintanja for informative discussions during the development of this work. T.J. Heaton is supported by a Leverhulme Trust Fellowship RF-2019-140\9, “Improving the Measurement of Time Using Radiocarbon”. M Butzin is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), as Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA); www.fona.de through the PalMod project (grant numbers: 01LP1505B, 01LP1919A). E. Bard is supported by EQUIPEX ASTER-CEREGE and ANR CARBOTRYDH. Meetings of the IntCal Marine Focus group have been supported by Collège de France. Data are available on the PANGAEA database at doi:10.159/ANGAEA.914500.
    Keywords: Bayesian modeling ; calibration ; carbon cycle ; computer model ; marine environment
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in [Schiller, C. M., Whitlock, C., Elder, K. L., Iverson, N. A., & Abbott, M. B. Erroneously old radiocarbon ages from terrestrial pollen concentrates in Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, USA. Radiocarbon, 63(1), (2021): 321-342, https://doi.org/10.1017/RDC.2020.118.
    Description: Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of pollen concentrates is often used in lake sediment records where large, terrestrial plant remains are unavailable. Ages produced from chemically concentrated pollen as well as manually picked Pinaceae grains in Yellowstone Lake (Wyoming) sediments were consistently 1700–4300 cal years older than ages established by terrestrial plant remains, tephrochronology, and the age of the sediment-water interface. Previous studies have successfully utilized the same laboratory space and methods, suggesting the source of old-carbon contamination is specific to these samples. Manually picking pollen grains precludes admixture of non-pollen materials. Furthermore, no clear source of old pollen grains occurs on the deglaciated landscape, making reworking of old pollen grains unlikely. High volumes of CO2 are degassed in the Yellowstone Caldera, potentially introducing old carbon to pollen. While uptake of old CO2 through photosynthesis is minor (F14C approximately 0.99), old-carbon contamination may still take place in the water column or in surficial lake sediments. It remains unclear, however, what mechanism allows for the erroneous ages of highly refractory pollen grains while terrestrial plant remains were unaffected. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for erroneously old radiocarbon ages from pollen concentrates, we propose steps for further study.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF Grant No. 1515353 to C. Whitlock and sampling in Yellowstone National Park was conducted under permits YELL-SCI-0009 and YELL-SCI-5054.
    Keywords: AMS dating ; Chronology ; Contamination ; Paleoecology ; Pine
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Roberts, Mark L., Elder, Kathryn L., Jenkins, William J., Gagnon, Alan R., Xu, Li, Hlavenka, Joshua D., & Longworth, Brett E. C-14 Blank Corrections for 25-100 mu G samples at the National Ocean Sciences AMS Laboratory. Radiocarbon, 61(5), (2019): 1403-1411, Doi: 10.1017/RDC.2019.74.
    Description: Replicate radiocarbon (14C) measurements of organic and inorganic control samples, with known Fraction Modern values in the range Fm = 0–1.5 and mass range 6 μg–2 mg carbon, are used to determine both the mass and radiocarbon content of the blank carbon introduced during sample processing and measurement in our laboratory. These data are used to model, separately for organic and inorganic samples, the blank contribution and subsequently “blank correct” measured unknowns in the mass range 25–100 μg. Data, formulas, and an assessment of the precision and accuracy of the blank correction are presented.
    Description: This work is supported by a Cooperative Agreement (OCE-1755125) with the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: AMS ; AMS dating ; Blank corrections
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Baker, M. G., Aster, R. C., Anthony, R. E., Chaput, J., Wiens, D. A., Nyblade, A., Bromirski, P. D., Gerstoft, P., & Stephen, R. A. Seasonal and spatial variations in the ocean-coupled ambient wavefield of the Ross Ice Shelf. Journal of Glaciology, 65(254), (2019): 912-925, doi:10.1017/jog.2019.64.
    Description: The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is host to a broadband, multimode seismic wavefield that is excited in response to atmospheric, oceanic and solid Earth source processes. A 34-station broadband seismographic network installed on the RIS from late 2014 through early 2017 produced continuous vibrational observations of Earth's largest ice shelf at both floating and grounded locations. We characterize temporal and spatial variations in broadband ambient wavefield power, with a focus on period bands associated with primary (10–20 s) and secondary (5–10 s) microseism signals, and an oceanic source process near the ice front (0.4–4.0 s). Horizontal component signals on floating stations overwhelmingly reflect oceanic excitations year-round due to near-complete isolation from solid Earth shear waves. The spectrum at all periods is shown to be strongly modulated by the concentration of sea ice near the ice shelf front. Contiguous and extensive sea ice damps ocean wave coupling sufficiently so that wintertime background levels can approach or surpass those of land-sited stations in Antarctica.
    Description: This research was supported by NSF grants PLR-1142518, 1141916, 1142126, 1246151 and 1246416. JC was additionally supported by Yates funds in the Colorado State University Department of Mathematics. PDB also received support from the California Department of Parks and Recreation, Division of Boating and Waterways under contract 11-106-107. We thank Reinhard Flick and Patrick Shore for their support during field work, Tom Bolmer in locating stations and preparing maps, and the US Antarctic Program for logistical support. The seismic instruments were provided by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) through the PASSCAL Instrument Center at New Mexico Tech. Data collected are available through the IRIS Data Management Center under RIS and DRIS network code XH. The PSD-PDFs presented in this study were processed with the IRIS Noise Tool Kit (Bahavar and others, 2013). The facilities of the IRIS Consortium are supported by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement EAR-1261681 and the DOE National Nuclear Security Administration. The authors appreciate the support of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Automatic Weather Station Program for the data set, data display and information; funded under NSF grant number ANT-1543305. The Ross Ice Shelf profiles were generated using the Antarctic Mapping Tools (Greene and others, 2017). Regional maps were generated with the Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith, 1998). Topography and bathymetry data for all maps in this study were sourced from the National Geophysical Data Center ETOPO1 Global Relief Model (doi:10.7289/V5C8276M). We thank two anonymous reviewers for suggestions on the scope and organization of this paper.
    Keywords: Antarctic glaciology ; Ice shelves ; Seismology
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Xu, L., Roberts, M., Elder, K., Hansman, R., Gagnon, A., & Kurz, M. Radiocarbon in dissolved organic carbon by UV oxidation: an update of procedures and blank characterization at NOSAMS. Radiocarbon, 64(1), (2022): 195-199, https://doi.org/10.1017/rdc.2022.4.
    Description: This note describes improvements of UV oxidation method that is used to measure carbon isotopes of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the National Ocean Sciences Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Facility (NOSAMS). The procedural blank is reduced to 2.6 ± 0.6 μg C, with Fm of 0.42 ± 0.10 and δ13C of –28.43 ± 1.19‰. The throughput is improved from one sample per day to two samples per day.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge support from the U.S. National Science Foundation, via NSF-OCE-1755125.
    Keywords: Blank ; Dissolved organic carbon ; Radiocarbon ; UV-oxidation
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ackley, S. F., Stammerjohn, S., Maksym, T., Smith, M., Cassano, J., Guest, P., Tison, J., Delille, B., Loose, B., Sedwick, P., DePace, L., Roach, L., & Parno, J. Sea-ice production and air/ice/ocean/biogeochemistry interactions in the Ross Sea during the PIPERS 2017 autumn field campaign. Annals of Glaciology, 61(82), (2020): 181-195, doi:10.1017/aog.2020.31.
    Description: The Ross Sea is known for showing the greatest sea-ice increase, as observed globally, particularly from 1979 to 2015. However, corresponding changes in sea-ice thickness and production in the Ross Sea are not known, nor how these changes have impacted water masses, carbon fluxes, biogeochemical processes and availability of micronutrients. The PIPERS project sought to address these questions during an autumn ship campaign in 2017 and two spring airborne campaigns in 2016 and 2017. PIPERS used a multidisciplinary approach of manned and autonomous platforms to study the coupled air/ice/ocean/biogeochemical interactions during autumn and related those to spring conditions. Unexpectedly, the Ross Sea experienced record low sea ice in spring 2016 and autumn 2017. The delayed ice advance in 2017 contributed to (1) increased ice production and export in coastal polynyas, (2) thinner snow and ice cover in the central pack, (3) lower sea-ice Chl-a burdens and differences in sympagic communities, (4) sustained ocean heat flux delaying ice thickening and (5) a melting, anomalously southward ice edge persisting into winter. Despite these impacts, airborne observations in spring 2017 suggest that winter ice production over the continental shelf was likely not anomalous.
    Description: NSF supported PIPERS award numbers: ANT-1341717 (S.F. Ackley, UTSA); ANT-1341513 (E. Maksym, WHOI); ANT-1341606 (S. Stammerjohn and J. Cassano, U Colorado); ANT-1341725 (P. Guest, NPS). P. Sedwick was supported by NSF ANT-1543483. S.F. Ackley was also supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC19M0194 to the Center for Advanced Measurements in Extreme Environments at UTSA. S. Stammerjohn was also supported by the LTER Program under NFS award number ANT-0823101 (H. Ducklow, LDEO/Columbia University). Additional support was by the Belgian F.R.S-FNRS (project ISOGGAP and IODIne, contract T.0268.16 and J.0262.17, respectively). Bruno Delille is a research associate of the F.R.S.-FNRS. Terra-Sar-X quicklook imagery was coordinated by Kathrin Hoeppner at DLR, and Andy Archer (with the Antarctic Support Contractor) provided selected (cloud-free) MODIS scenes and daily maps of AMSR2 sea-ice concentration.
    Keywords: Atmosphere/ice/ocean interactions ; Ice/ocean interactions ; Sea ice ; Sea-ice growth and decay
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    Notes: From its early origins to the present, the development of mainstream economic theory has taken a direction which has excluded the analysis of human needs as a basis for social policy. The problems associated with this orientation are increasingly recognized both by economists and non-economists. As Sen (1985) points out, it is indeed strange for a discipline concerned with the well-being of people to neglect the question of needs. Currently, some writers such as Doyal and Gough (1991), post-Keynesian economists such as Lavoie (1994), and those such as Davis and O'Boyle (1994) who work in the newly emerging school of social economics have begun to address the question of human needs, especially in relation to problems of policy assessment and evaluation. The approaches of some development economists who have dealt with similar issues were also instrumental in drawing attention to the significance of the long-neglected concept of needs (Stewart, 1985; Cole and Miles, 1984).
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 209-233 
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    Notes: Modern law and economics received much of its impetus from Ronald Coase's analysis in ‘The Problem of Social Cost,’ and a goodly amount of that comes from the Coase theorem, which states that, absent transaction costs, externalities will be efficiently resolved through bargaining. The fact that the analysis that came to be codified in the Coase theorem was (intentionally) an exercise in pure fiction on Coase's part did not deter the erection of a substantial edifice of positive and normative analysis on this foundation, nor, for that matter, has subsequent elaboration of Coase's intent done anything to abate the interest in the theorem and its implications.
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 307-311 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 324-330 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 318-324 
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 23-42 
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    Notes: Some writers have noted that valuation is often focused on foreseen changes. They say that we often don't value situations in terms of what we would have in them only but also in terms of the gains or losses that they offer us — that we then focus on departures from our status quo. They argue that such thinking conflicts with basic economic analysis, and also that it violates logic: they say that it is irrational. I agree that it seems to be common. But is such a way of setting one's values a challenge to economics? And does it conflict with being rational?
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    Economics and philosophy 15 (1999), S. 1-22 
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    Notes: Over the last few decades, theoretical discussions about metaphors have appeared with increasing frequency in the literature and, during the last fifteen years or so, such discussions have become more and more common in the methodology of economics. But what exactly is a metaphor? According to a tradition which dates back to Aristotle, a metaphor is the attribution to one object, A, of the name (and indirectly of the qualities) of another object, B, while this name or these qualities do not properly or normally belong to A. Thus, a metaphor is present when a term used to describe (or even to name) A is a term which is already commonly used to name B (quite a different kind of entity). Defined in such a way, one must admit that metaphors are frequently found in economics as well as in other sciences. Let us consider, for example, a term like ‘elasticity’ which is extensively used by economists. According to the ordinary dictionary definition, this word designates a property of bodies by which they recover their initial form after having been submitted to a pressure; in a less technical sense, it refers to the flexibility of some bodies or to their responsiveness to pressures.
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    Economics and philosophy 14 (1998), S. 1-2 
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    Economics and philosophy 14 (1998), S. 1-11 
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    Notes: There is a long tradition in economics of evaluating social arrangements by the extent to which individuals' preferences are satisfied. This is the tradition of welfarism, which has developed from nineteenth-century utilitarianism. Increasingly, however, the presumption that preference-satisfaction is the appropriate standard for evaluating social arrangements is being challenged by an alternative view: that we should focus on the set of opportunities open to each individual.
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    Economics and philosophy 14 (1998), S. 339-342 
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 197-206 
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    Notes: 1. Despite the plain fact that there is nothing in this world that can be proved without reliance on some assumption or another (perhaps only the assumption that the laws of logic are correct), there is an inalienable difference between an argument that begins by assuming what it is designed to establish and one that begins by assuming the contradictory of what it is designed to establish. Arguments of the first kind are uncontroversially acknowledged to be circular, or question-begging; though valid they achieve nothing. Those of the second kind conform to the classical pattern of reductio ad absurdum or indirect proof. A typical example is the proof of the irrationality of √2, which begins by assuming that for some integral m, n the identity m2/n2 = 2, and (using some trite principles of number theory) arrives at a contradiction. Nothing whatever is established or justified by arguments of the first kind, even granted the truth of all the other assumptions (if any), and the validity of the rules of inference; while the second may establish that, if those assumptions are true (and the rules of inference employed valid), then the additional assumption (that √2 is rational) is false.
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    Economics and philosophy 12 (1996), S. 125-132 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 309-331 
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    Notes: In his book A General Theory of Exploitation and Class (1982) (hereafter GT), John Roemer employs the tools of mainstream general equilibrium and game-theoretic analysis to develop a fundamental critique and broadbased reformulation of Marxian economic theory. Perhaps Roemer's most striking departure from traditional Marxian tenets lies in his explanation of the material basis of exploitation in capitalist economies. Roemer argues that capitalist exploitation must be understood as essentially the consequence of exchange given differential ownership of relatively scarce productive assets (DORSPA). In particular, Roemer concludes that capitalist exploitation does not fundamentally depend on capitalist domination of production, or what Marx termed the subsumption of labor under capital.
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 333-343 
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    Notes: The prisoner 's dilemma game (henceforth, PD) has acquired large literatures in several disciplines. It is surprising, therefore, that a good definition of the game is hard to find. Typically an author relates a story about captured criminals or military rivals, provides a particular payoff matrix and asserts that the PD is characterized, or illustrated, by that matrix. In the few cases in which characterizing conditions are given, the conditions, and the motivations for them, do not always agree with each other or with the paradigm examples elsewhere. In this paper we describe several varieties of PD's. In particular, we suggest there are two distinctions among PD's with philosophical significance, the pure/impure and the utilitarian/nonutilitarian distinctions. In the first section, we explain and characterize the two distinctions. In the second, we discuss an issue of moral philosophy that illustrates the significance of the former.
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 353-358 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 344-351 
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    Notes: In his Comment ‘Adam Smith on the Morality of the Pursuit of Fortune’, Richard Arlen Kleer accepts much of the argument in my article ‘Signifying Voices’ (Brown, 1991) but insists that I have ‘gone too far’ (Kleer, 1993). Kleer agrees that there is a moral hierarchy in Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments (TMS) where benevolence and self-command are ranked higher than justice and prudence, but he is uneasy with the conclusion that economic activity and the pursuit of gain are ‘amoral’ activities and insists that they do have a significant moral standing. In addition, although Kleer accepts a good deal of the stylistic analysis, again he is uneasy with the results that are derived from it. This reply will take each of these aspects in turn.
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 359-366 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 366-370 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 401-402 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 386-391 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 85-112 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Difficult moral issues in economic life, such as evaluating the impact of hostile takeovers and plant relocations or determining the obligations of business to the environment, constitute the raison d'etre of business ethics. Yet, while the ultimate resolution of such issues clearly requires detailed, normative analysis, a shortcoming of business ethics is that to date it has failed to develop an adequate normative theory.1 The failing is especially acute when it results in an inability to provide a basis for fine-grained analyses of issues. Both general moral theories and stakeholder theory seem incapable of expressing the moral complexity necessary to provide practical normative guidance for many business ethics contexts.
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 182-189 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 113-136 
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    Notes: Most philosophical accounts of the foundations of economics have assumed that economics is intended to be an empirical science concerned with human behaviour, though they have, of course, differed over the extent to which it has been or can be successful as such an enterprise. A prominent source of dissent against this consensus is Alexander Rosenberg. In his recent book, Rosenberg summarizes and completes his statement of a position that he has been developing for some time (Rosenberg, 1992a). He argues that although economists evaluate one another's work according to shared and rigorous standards of adequacy, these standards are strictly internal, like those of mathematics, instead of being derived from discoveries about contingent relationships between theoretical statements and empirical facts. Economics, that is to say, is essentially conceptual rather than empirical inquiry. In the following discussion, I will provide grounds for resisting Rosenberg's conclusion. The point of this criticism, however, is not mainly negative. Most of the historical preoccupations of the philosophy of economics, like those of the philosophy of science in general, have been epistemological. Careful attention to Rosenberg's argument, however, redirects our attention to ontological questions about the objects of economics, and this redirection, I will maintain, is to be welcomed. I will argue that while the majority of philosophers of economics is correct, as against Rosenberg, in regarding economics as an empirical science, the conventional view as to the identity of its empirical objects should be substantially revised under the pressure of Rosenberg's criticisms. My critical analysis of the implications of Rosenberg's work for the ontological commitments of economics is intended to furnish one line of argument towards my own conception of the objects of economics. This conception, which is still preliminary in many respects, will be briefly sketched toward the end of the present paper; a detailed account of it is given in Ross and LaCasse (1993).
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 197-203 
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    Economics and philosophy 11 (1995), S. 221-224 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 583-588 
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    Notes: This paper investigates the semiparametric efficiency of the conditional maximum likelihood estimation in some panel models. The nonparametric component of the model is the unknown distribution of the fixed effect. For the exponential panel model, there exists a complete sufficient statistic for the fixed effect. When the complete sufficient statistic does not depend on the parameter of interest, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. In particular, the CMLE is semiparametrically efficient for the panel Poisson regression model and the panel negative binomial model.
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 313-314 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 32-51 
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    Notes: Latent variable discrete choice model estimation and interpretation depend on the density function of the latent variable's unobserved random component. This paper provides a simple semiparametric estimator of the moments of this density. The results can be used as starting values for parametric estimators, to estimate the appropriate location and scaling for semiparametric estimators, for specification testing including tests of latent error skewness and kurtosis, and to estimate coefficients of discrete explanatory variables in the model.
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 133-142 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 119-132 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 743-743 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 745-746 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 752-752 
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    Notes: The editor is grateful to Francisco Goerlich for pointing out that there was a misprint in the criterion defined in Problem 94.1.4. It should read as[...]instead of[...]as it was originally published.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 432-457 
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    Notes: It is common for an applied researcher to use filtered data, like seasonally adjusted series, for instance, to estimate the parameters of a dynamic regression model. In this paper, we study the effect of (linear) filters on the distribution of parameters of a dynamic regression model with a lagged dependent variable and a set of exogenous regressors. So far, only asymptotic results are available. Our main interest is to investigate the effect of filtering on the small sample bias and mean squared error. In general, these results entail a numerical integration of derivatives of the joint moment generating function of two quadratic forms in normal variables. The computation of these integrals is quite involved. However, we take advantage of the Laplace approximations to the bias and mean squared error, which substantially reduce the computational burden, as they yield relatively simple analytic expressions. We obtain analytic formulae for approximating the effect of filtering on the finite sample bias and mean squared error. We evaluate the adequacy of the approximations by comparison with Monte Carlo simulations, using the Census X-11 filter as a specific example
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 569-580 
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    Notes: The usual standard errors for the regression coefficients in a seemingly unrelated regression model have a substantial downward bias. Bootstrapping the standard errors does not seem to improve inferences. In this paper, Monte Carlo evidence is reported which indicates that bootstrapping can result in substantially better inferences when applied to t-ratios rather than to standard errors.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 586-587 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 587-589 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 306-307 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 307-308 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 148-148 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 506-528 
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    Notes: This paper generalizes the univariate results of Chan and Tran (1989, Econometric Theory 5, 354–362) and Phillips (1990, Econometric Theory 6, 44–62) to multivariate time series. We develop the limit theory for the least-squares estimate of a VAR(l) for a random walk with independent and identically distributed errors and for I(1) processes with weakly dependent errors whose distributions are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. The limit laws are represented by functional of a stable process. A semiparametric correction is used in order to asymptotically eliminate the “bias” term in the limit law. These results are also an extension of the multivariate limit theory for square-integrable disturbances derived by Phillips and Durlauf (1986, Review of Economic Studies 53, 473–495). Potential applications include tests for multivariate unit roots and cointegration.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 739-740 
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    Notes: In “Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity” (1994, Econometric Theory 10, 701–719), we used posterior-odds calculations to evaluate restrictions imposed by a present-value model of stock prices across the equations of a VAR representation of stock prices and dividends. The results we reported are tainted by the omission of two factors: the Jacobians induced by the mapping of our priors over VAR parameters β into the restricted sample spaces relevant under hypotheses H-H (hence, tainting our calculations of p(Hi|y,X) in (22) for i = 2–4), and an integrating constant needed in calculating the unrestricted probability p(Hi|y,X) in (22). Table 1 reports our revised calculations, which differ substantively from those reported previously.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 746-748 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 1-1 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 481-499 
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    Notes: For a first-order autoregressive AR(1) model with zero initial value, xi = axi−1,_, + ei, we provide the bias, mean squared error, skewness, and kurtosis of the maximum likelihood estimator â. Brownian motion approximations by Phillips (1977, Econometrica 45, 463–485; 1978, Biometrika 65, 91–98; 1987, Econometrica 55, 277–301), Phillips and Perron (1988, Biometrika 75, 335–346), and Perron (1991, Econometric Theory 7, 236–252; 1991, Econometrica 59, 211–236), among others, yield an elegant unified theory but do not yield convenient formulas for calibration of skewness and kurtosis. In addition to the usual stationary case |α| 〈 1, we include the unstable |α| = 1 case of the random walk model. For the |α| 〈 1 case, we give new exact results for White's (1961, Biometrika 48, 85–94) model B, where the initial value x0 is a normal random variable N(0,σ2/(l – α2)). Our expressions are exact for small samples computed by relatively reliable Gaussian quadrature methods, rather than approximate ones in powers of n−l or α2.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 581-583 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 590-592 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 305-330 
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    Notes: Estimation of simultaneous equations with limited (or transformed) endogenous regressors has been difficult in the parametric literature for various reasons. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric two-stage method that is analogous to two-stage least-squares estimation. A simultaneous censored model is used to illustrate our approach, and then its generalization to other cases is developed. The technical highlight is in handling a nondifferentiable second-stage minimand with an infinite-dimensional first-stage nuisance parameter when the first-stage error is not orthogonal to the second.
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 464-465 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 464-464 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 396-401 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 641-642 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 312-313 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 310-312 
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    Econometric theory 13 (1997), S. 52-78 
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    Notes: A typical statistic encountered can be characterized as a ratio of polynomials of arbitrary degree in a random vector. This vector may possess any admissible cumulant structure. We provide in this paper general formulae for the effect of nonnormality on the density and distribution functions of this ratio. The results appear in terms of generalized cumulants, a theory developed by McCullagh (1984, Biometrika 71, 461–476). With the aid of suitable notation, the expressions are applied to the distributions of tests for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, the least-squares estimator of the autoregressive coefficient in a dynamic model, and tests for linear restrictions.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1095-1130 
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    Notes: A limit theory for instrumental variables (IV) estimation that allows for possibly nonstationary processes was developed in Kitamura and Phillips (1992, Fully Modified IV, GIVE, and GMM Estimation with Possibly Non-stationary Regressors and Instruments, mimeo, Yale University). This theory covers a case that is important for practitioners, where the nonstationarity of the regressors may not be of full rank, and shows that the fully modified (FM) regression procedure of Phillips and Hansen (1990) is still applicable. FM. versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and the generalized instrumental variables estimator (GIVE) were also developed, and these estimators (FM-GMM and FM-GIVE) were designed specifically to take advantage of potential stationarity in the regressors (or unknown linear combinations of them). These estimators were shown to deliver efficiency gains over FM-IV in the estimation of the stationary components of a model.This paper provides an overview of the FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE procedures and investigates the small sample properties of these estimation procedures by simulations. We compare the following five estimation methods: ordinary least squares, crude (conventional) IV, FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE. Our findings are as follows, (i) In terms of overall performance in both stationary and nonstationary cases, FM-IV is more concentrated and better centered than OLS and crude IV, though it has a higher root mean square error than crude IV due to occasional outliers, (ii) Among FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE, (a) when applied to the stationary coefficients, FM-GIVE generally outperforms FM-IV and FM-GMM by a wide margin, whereas the difference between the latter two is quite small when the AR roots of the stationary processes are rather large; and (b) when applied to the nonstationary coefficients, the three estimators are numerically very close. The performance of the FM-GIVE estimator is generally very encouraging.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 1179-1180 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 796-796 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 798-800 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 484-497 
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    Notes: This paper is devoted to a detailed examination of the exact sampling properties of the instrumental variables (IV) estimator of the vector of coefficients on the exogenous variables in a single structural equation. The first two moments of a linear combination of the elements of this estimator and the joint distribution of these elements are considered. Estimable bounds for the first moment that can readily be incorporated into any IV estimation package are provided. The results obtained are in terms of the same special functions as those that characterize other results for this model, allowing a unified treatment of the model.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 437-483 
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    Notes: In this article, we investigate a bias in an asymptotic expansion of the simulated maximum likelihood estimator introduced by Lerman and Manski (pp. 305–319 in C. Manski and D. McFadden (eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1981) for the estimation of discrete choice models. This bias occurs due to the nonlinearity of the derivatives of the log likelihood function and the statistically independent simulation errors of the choice probabilities across observations. This bias can be the dominating bias in an asymptotic expansion of the simulated maximum likelihood estimator when the number of simulated random variables per observation does not increase at least as fast as the sample size. The properly normalized simulated maximum likelihood estimator even has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution if the number of simulated random variables increases only as fast as the square root of the sample size. A bias-adjustment is introduced that can reduce the bias. Some Monte Carlo experiments have demonstrated the usefulness of the bias-adjustment procedure.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 550-559 
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    Notes: In this comment, I first want to offer a few general remarks on the problems caused by nonuniformity in the convergence of coverage probabilities as pointed out in Kabaila's (1995) very stimulating paper. Second, I also argue that within the context of set estimation after model selection one typically will be more interested in conditional coverage probabilities than in unconditional ones. Concentrating on the last example of Section 2 in Kabaila, I then illustrate how a confidence region can be constructed such that the conditional coverage probabilities do not suffer from the nonuniformity problem discussed in Kabaila. As a by-product, I show that the confidence region considered in this example in Kabaila is not a very natural one and that it has undesirable conditional coverage properties, which I find actually more troublesome than the lack of uniformity in the unconditional coverage probability pointed out by Kabaila.
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 631-635 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 639-639 
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    Econometric theory 11 (1995), S. 646-646 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 393-393 
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 407-408 
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    Notes: The following solution, which corrects a mistake in the solution to Problem 92.2.7 by Peter C.B. Phillips, was prepared by Marie Blanchet and Peter Burridge.
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    Econometric theory 12 (1996), S. 30-60 
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    Notes: We examine the higher order asymptotic properties of semiparametric regression estimators that were obtained by the general MINPIN method described in Andrews (1989, Semiparametric Econometric Models: I. Estimation, Discussion paper 908, Cowles Foundation). We derive an order n−1 stochastic expansion and give a theorem justifying order n−1 distributional approximation of the Edgeworth type.
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