ALBERT

Description: The paper describes the architecture for a data repository and distribution system to be used in the case of a SETI detection event. This system is conceptually modelled after the Deep Space Network, although the hardware and infrastructure involved are different and substantially less expensive to operate. The system is designed to accommodate a large number of users from a variety of fields who wish to contribute to the analysis and comprehension effort that would follow the detection of an information-bearing signal.

Description: Under the potential to reconstruct the past climatic and atmospheric conditions from a deep ice core in the coastal Antarctic site (Styx Glacier), an 8.84 m long firn core (73°50.975′ S, 163°41.640′ E; 1623 m a.s.l.) was initially studied to propose a reliable age scale for the local estimation of snow accumulation rate. The seasonal variations of δ18O, methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42–) were used for the firn core dating and revealed 25 annual peaks (from 1990 to 2014) with volcanic sulfate signal. The observed declining trend in annual accumulation rate with a mean value of 146 ± 60 kg m–2 a–1 is likely to be linked to the changes of sea-ice extent in the Ross Sea region. Moreover, the temporal variation of the annual mean δ18O, an annual flux of MSA and nssSO42– also likely to be under the influence of ice-covered and open water area. This study suggests a potential to recover past changes in an oceanic environment and will be useful for the interpretation of the long ice core drilled at the same site.

Description: Clouds play an important role in the Arctic surface radiative budget, impacting the seasonal evolution of Arctic sea-ice cover. We explore the large-scale impacts of springtime and early summer (March through July) cloud and radiative fluxes on sea ice by comparing these fluxes to seasonal ice volume losses over the central Arctic basin, calculated for available observational years 2004–2007 (ICESat) and 2011–2017 (CryoSat-2). We also supplement observation data with sea-ice volume computed from the Pan-Arctic Ice–Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) during summer months. We find that the volume of sea ice lost over the melt season is most closely related to observed downwelling longwave radiation in March and early summer (June and July) longwave cloud radiative forcing, which together explain a large fraction of interannual variability in seasonal sea-ice volume loss (R2 = 0.71, p = 0.007). We show that downwelling longwave fluxes likely impact the timing of melt onset near the sea-ice edge, and can limit the magnitude of ice thickening from March to April. Radiative fluxes in June and July are likely critical to seasonal volume loss because modeled data show the greatest ice volume reductions occur during these months.

Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

Description: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.

Description: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.

Description: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.

Description: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.

Description: Transformation of refractory cratonic mantle into more fertile lithologies is the key to the fate of cratonic lithosphere. This process has been extensively studied in the eastern North China Craton (NCC) while that of its western part is still poorly constrained. A comprehensive study of newly-found pyroxenite xenoliths from the Langshan area, in the northwestern part of this craton is integrated with a regional synthesis of pyroxenite and peridotite xenoliths to constrain the petrogenesis of the pyroxenites and provide an overview of the processes involved in the modification of the deep lithosphere. The Langshan pyroxenites are of two types, high-Mg# [Mg2+/(Mg2++Fe2+)*100 = ∼ 90, atomic ratios] olivine-bearing websterites with high equilibration temperatures (880 ∼ 970 oC), and low-Mg# (70 ∼ 80) plagioclase-bearing websterites with low equilibration temperatures (550 ∼ 835 oC). The high-Mg# pyroxenites show trade-off abundances of olivine and orthopyroxene, highly depleted bulk Sr-Nd (ƐNd = +11.41, 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.7034) and low clinopyroxene Sr isotopic ratios (mean 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.703). They are considered to reflect the reaction of mantle peridotites with silica-rich silicate melts derived from the convective mantle. Their depletion in fusible components (e.g., FeO, TiO2 and Na2O) and progressive exhaustion of incompatible elements suggest melt extraction after their formation. The low-Mg# pyroxenites display layered structures, convex-upward rare earth element patterns, moderately enriched bulk Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (ƐNd = -14.20 ∼ -16.74, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7070 ∼ 0.7078) and variable clinopyroxene Sr-isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr = 0.706-0.711). They are interpreted to be crustal cumulates from hypersthene-normative melts generated by interaction between the asthenosphere and heterogeneous lithospheric mantle. Combined with studies on regional peridotite xenoliths, it is shown that the thinning and refertilization of the lithospheric mantle was accompanied by crustal rejuvenation and that such processes occurred ubiquitously in the northwestern part of the NCC. A geodynamic model is proposed for the evolution of the deep lithosphere, which includes long-term mass transfer through a mantle wedge into the deep crust from the Paleozoic to the Cenozoic, triggered by subduction of the Paleo-Asian ocean and the Late Mesozoic lithospheric extension of eastern Asia.

Description: Fishermen are known to try to avoid fishing in stormy weather, as storms pose a physical threat to fishers, their vessels, and their gear. In this article, a dataset and methods are developed to investigate the degree to which fishers avoid storms, estimate storm aversion parameters, and explore how this response varies across vessel characteristics and across regions of the United States. The data consist of vessel-level trip-taking decisions from six federal fisheries across the United States combined with marine storm warning data from the National Weather Service. The estimates of storm aversion can be used to parameterize predictive models. Fishers’ aversion to storms decreases with increasing vessel size and increases with the severity of the storm warning. This information contributes to our understanding of the risk-to-revenue trade-off that fishers evaluate every time they consider going to sea, and of the propensity of fishers to take adaptive actions to avoid facing additional physical risk.

Description: Sardine Sardinops sagax is an ecologically and economically important Clupeid found off the entire South African coast that includes both coastal upwelling and western boundary current systems. Although the management of the sardine fisheries historically assumed a single, panmictic population, the existence of three, semi-discrete subpopulations has recently been hypothesized. We conducted otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses to investigate nursery habitat temperatures and early life growth rates, respectively, of sardine collected from three biogeographic regions around South Africa’s coast to test that hypothesis. Analyses indicated that for both summer- and winter-captured adults and summer-captured juveniles, fishes from the west coast grew significantly slower in water that was several degrees cooler than those from the south and east coasts. This suggests that mixing of sardines between regions, particularly the west and other coasts, is relatively limited and supports the hypothesis of semi-discrete subpopulations. However, the west-south differences disappeared in the results for winter-captured juveniles, suggesting that differences in early life conditions between regions may change seasonally, and/or that all or most winter-captured juveniles originated from the west coast. Further elucidating the interactions between South African sardine subpopulations and the mechanisms thereof is important for sustainable harvesting of this species.

Description: The orogenic development after the continental collision between Laurussia and Gondwana, led to two contrasting associations of mantle-derived magmatic rocks on the territory of the Bohemian Massif: (i) a 340–310 Ma lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association and (ii) a 300–275 Ma lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity. Major types of potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks recognised in the orogenic and anorogenic associations include: (i) calc-alkaline to alkaline lamprophyres, (ii) alkaline “orthopyroxene minettes” (and geochemically related rocks), and (iii) peralkaline lamproites. These three types significantly differ with respect to mineral, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb–Li isotope composition, and spatial distribution. The calc-alkaline lamprophyres occur throughout the entire Saxo-Thuringian and Moldanubian zones, whereas the different types of malte-derived potassic rocks are spatially restricted to particular zones. Rocks of the Carboniferous lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association are characterised by variable negative εNd(i) and variably radiogenic Sr(i), whereas the rocks of the Permian lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity are characterised by positive εNd(i) and relatively young depleted-mantle Nd-model ages reflecting increasing input from upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The small variation in the Pb isotopic composition of post-collisional potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks (of both the orogenic and anorogenic series) implies that the Pb budget of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif is dominated by the same crust-derived material, which itself may include material derived from several sources. The source rocks of “orthopyroxene minettes” are characterised by isotopically light (“eclogitic”) Li and strongly radiogenic (crustal) Sr and may have been metasomatised by high-pressure fluids along the edge of a subduction zone. In contrast, the strongly Al2O3 and CaO depleted mantle source of the lamproites is characterised by isotopically heavy Li and high SiO2 and extreme K2O contents. This mantle source may have been metasomatised predominantly by melts. The mantle source of the lamprophyres may have undergone metasomatism by both fluids and melts.

Description: We present a high-resolution spatial study of ocean surface carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2), temperature and salinity coupled with a seismic survey performed in subpolar waters with a variable presence of glaciers along the coastal margins of Admiralty Bay and the Bransfield Strait, northern Antarctic Peninsula, during the late spring season. Three zones were identified in this bay. The shallow and relatively fresh SHALLOW GLACIER THAW zone in the inner portion of the bay had high freshwater inputs from active glacial meltwater channels, representing higher pCO2 levels (median ~438 μatm) than the shallow and relatively salty SHALLOW zone without glaciers along the margins and dominated by macroalgae communities at the bottom, which showed relatively low pCO2 levels (median ~371 μatm). The deep and relatively salty CENTRE zone was highly influenced by seawater intrusions from the Bransfield Strait, representing intermediate pCO2 levels (median ~397 μatm). The net sea-air CO2 fluxes in late spring obtained from the high-resolution surface survey in Admiralty Bay indicate a condition of near neutral air-sea CO2 flux, with a median (25–75% interquartile range) value of -0.07 mmol m-2 day-1 (ranging from -12.21 to +4.33 mmol m-2 day-1), contrasting with the slight source to the atmosphere estimated from measurements only in the CENTRE zone. This finding suggests that temperature-sensitive metabolic and physical-chemical processes may cause significant variability in the ocean surface distribution of CO2 over short shoreline distances in the northern Antarctic Peninsula.

Description: Geological, geomorphological and soil maps provide important information on the substrate as well as on the past and present physical landscape. For the intensely studied Netherlands coastal plain and Rhine–Meuse delta, many such map datasets have been compiled over the last two centuries. These mapping materials comprise older and younger legacy datasets, often fragmented over regions. They have been compiled within various research traditions and by various parties, involving geologists, soil scientists, geomorphologists and landscape archaeologists. The maps and datasets summarise overwhelming amounts of underlying data accumulated over the last few centuries, and are therefore valuable for reconstructing past landscapes. Digital-infrastructure developments have enhanced possibilities for recombining existing and new data over the last few decades, e.g. through GIS solutions such as palaeogeographical base maps, from which multiple derived map products can be generated. Integration of thematic information from various source maps and underlying data is needed to use the accumulated data diversity to its full potential and to answer applied and fundamental scientific questions. Using diverse information to compile or update maps, however, requires awareness of legacy surveying strategies and the state of knowledge at the time the original data and maps were produced. This paper reviews the soil, geological and geomorphological mapping traditions. We evaluate their products, underlying data and the reasoning behind their compilation, focusing on their use in conventional and digital palaeogeographical mapping. This helps get the most out of large quantities of legacy and modern data, a major challenge for surface and substrate digital mapping in the big-data era.

Description: SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.

Description: Although luminescence sensitivity of quartz grains of desert sands has been used in discriminating provenance, it still remains unclear about its spatiotemporal variations and climatic implications. In this paper, the luminescence sensitivity of quartz grains from the northern margin of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) was studied using single-aliquot optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and “pseudo” single-grain OSL measurements. Our results indicate that the OSL sensitivities have lower values in sand/loess beds and higher values in paleosols. We suggest that the variations in OSL sensitivity of quartz grains with depth on the CLP are mainly influenced by the origin of the quartz grains as they are related to the loess-sized material production processes and the migration of desert regions. More quartz grains of glacial origin with lower luminescence sensitivity, together with the reduced durations of irradiation and exposure cycles induced by shorter transport distance due to desert expansion, account for the lower luminescence sensitivity of glacial periods. Moreover, both the mountain processes and the retreat–advance of deserts are ultimately related to climatic changes, therefore, the orbital scale variations of luminescence sensitivity are controlled by glacial–interglacial oscillations on the CLP.

Description: SUMMARY The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of ambient noise is commonly used to infer a site's resonance frequency (${f_{0,site}}$). HVSR calculations are performed most commonly using the Fourier amplitude spectrum obtained from a single merged horizontal component (e.g. the geometric mean component) from a three-component sensor. However, the use of a single merged horizontal component implicitly relies on the assumptions of azimuthally isotropic seismic noise and 1-D surface and subsurface conditions. These assumptions may not be justified at many sites, leading to azimuthal variability in HVSR measurements that cannot be accounted for using a single merged component. This paper proposes a new statistical method to account for azimuthal variability in the peak frequency of HVSR curves (${f_{0,HVSR}}$). The method uses rotated horizontal components at evenly distributed azimuthal intervals to investigate and quantify azimuthal variability. To ensure unbiased statistics for ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ are obtained, a frequency-domain window-rejection algorithm is applied at each azimuth to automatically remove contaminated time windows in which the ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ values are statistical outliers relative to those obtained from the majority of windows at that azimuth. Then, a weighting scheme is used to account for different numbers of accepted time windows at each azimuth. The new method is applied to a data set of 114 HVSR measurements with significant azimuthal variability in ${f_{0,HVSR}}$, and is shown to reliably account for this variability. The methodology is also extended to the estimation of a complete lognormal-median HVSR curve that accounts for azimuthal variability. To encourage the adoption of this statistical approach to accounting for azimuthal variability in single-station HVSR measurements, the methods presented in this paper have been incorporated into hvsrpy, an open-source Python package for HVSR processing.

Description: SUMMARY This study focuses in the analysis of the internal structure of the upper 3 km of Los Humeros (LH) caldera and the relation of electrical and hydrothermal anomalies. For this purpose, we measured, processed and interpreted 78 broad-band magnetotelluric (MT) soundings. We performed a 3-D inversion of the data set (ModEM) using all MT soundings, although only half of the available frequencies per sounding due to limited computed power. We also carried out the 2-D inversions (NLCG) of the invariant determinant along two orthogonal profiles (EW and NS) crossing the caldera structure; their comparison yields similar resistivity and structural models results. The resistivity modelling is complemented with the results of a joint 3-D inversion of an accurate gravity database of 720 stations, and total field aeromagnetic data (SGM) from the caldera crater. The combined results provide novel details about the structure of the shallow geothermal reservoir of the resurgence caldera complex hosting the active hydrothermal system. Density and resistivity models show the existence of a composed crater basin structure separated by an EW high-density structure; the northern basin is associated to the LH crater, whereas the southern basin associates to the emergent Los Potreros (LP) caldera basin. The magnetization model indicates that there is a common source for the magnetic volcanic products observed at the caldera surface, and that the LP fault is the more magnetized fault of the geothermal system. The propylic zoning under the geothermal field, which according to the MT model results has resistivities above ∼100 Ω-m, was extrapolated using this and additional criteria to obtain the distribution of other hypothetical propylitic zones of hydrothermal potential.

Description: SUMMARY For the time stationary global geomagnetic field, a new modelling concept is presented. A Bayesian non-parametric approach provides realistic location dependent uncertainty estimates. Modelling related variabilities are dealt with systematically by making little subjective a priori assumptions. Rather than parametrizing the model by Gauss coefficients, a functional analytic approach is applied. The geomagnetic potential is assumed a Gaussian process to describe a distribution over functions. A priori correlations are given by an explicit kernel function with non-informative dipole contribution. A refined modelling strategy is proposed that accommodates non-linearities of archeomagnetic observables: First, a rough field estimate is obtained considering only sites that provide full field vector records. Subsequently, this estimate supports the linearization that incorporates the remaining incomplete records. The comparison of results for the archeomagnetic field over the past 1000 yr is in general agreement with previous models while improved model uncertainty estimates are provided.

Description: SUMMARY Rapid development of time-lapse seismic monitoring instrumentations has made it possible to collect dense time-lapse data for tomographically retrieving time-lapse (even continuous) images of subsurface changes. While traditional time-lapse full waveform inversion (TLFWI) algorithms are designed for sparse time-lapse surveys, they lack of effective temporal constraint on time-lapse data, and, more importantly, lack of the uncertainty estimation of the TLFWI results that is critical for further interpretation. Here, we propose a new data assimilation TLFWI method, using hierarchical matrix powered extended Kalman filter (HiEKF) to quantify the image uncertainty. Compared to existing Kalman filter algorithms, HiEKF allows to store and update a data-sparse representation of the cross-covariance matrices and propagate model errors without expensive operations involving covariance matrices. Hence, HiEKF is computationally efficient and applicable to 3-D TLFWI problems. Then, we reformulate TLFWI in the framework of HiEKF (termed hereafter as TLFWI-HiEKF) to predict time-lapse images of subsurface spatiotemporal velocity changes and simultaneously quantify the uncertainty of the inverted velocity changes over time. We demonstrate the validity and applicability of TLFWI–HiEKF with two realistic CO2 monitoring models derived from Frio-II and Cranfield CO2 injection sites, respectively. In both 2-D and 3-D examples, the inverted high-resolution time-lapse velocity results clearly reveal a continuous velocity reduction due to the injection of CO2. Moreover, the accuracy of the model is increasing over time by assimilating more time-lapse data while the standard deviation is decreasing over lapsed time. We expect TLFWI-HiEKF to be equipped with real-time seismic monitoring systems for continuously imaging the distribution of subsurface gas and fluids in the future large-scale CO2 sequestration experiments and reservoir management.

Description: SUMMARY Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indicate that the surge of seismicity is being induced by the re-injection of produced water into the same three producing reservoirs. Earthquake activity began on known faults once disposal rates had reached a threshold of ∼2 × 106 m3 of water per month. The average reservoir pressure had remained constant at 7.6 MPa after several years of production, sustained by a large, active aquifer. Surface injection pressures in the seismically active areas remain below 8.3 MPa, a value large enough to activate some of the faults. Since faults are mapped throughout the region and many do not have seismicity on them, we conclude that the existence of known faults is not the only control on whether earthquakes are generated. Stress conditions of these faults are open to future studies. Earthquakes are primarily found in four clusters, located near faults mapped by the operator. The hypocentres reveal vertical planes with orientations consistent with focal mechanisms of these events. Stress inversion of the focal mechanisms gives a maximum compression in the direction ENE-WSW, which is in agreement with borehole breakout measurements. Since the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are consistent with the tectonic stress regime, we can conclude that the seismicity is resulting from the activation of critically stressed faults. Slip was progressive and seismic activity reached a peak before declining to few events per month. The decline in seismicity suggests that most of the stress has been relieved on the main faults. The magnitude of a large majority of the recorded earthquakes was lower than 4, as the pore pressure disturbance did not reach the mapped large faults whose activation might have resulted in larger magnitude earthquakes. Our study shows that a good knowledge of the local fault network and conditions of stress is of paramount importance when planning a massive water disposal program. These earthquakes indicate that while faults provide an opportunity to dispose produced water at an economically attractive volume–pressure ratio, the possibility of induced seismicity must also be considered.

Description: Two satellite datasets are used to characterize winter landfast first-year sea-ice (FYI), deformed FYI (DFYI) and multiyear sea-ice (MYI) roughness in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA): (1) optical Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and (2) synthetic aperture radar Sentinel-1. The Normalized Difference Angular Index (NDAI) roughness proxy derived from MISR, and backscatter from Sentinel-1 are intercompared. NDAI and backscatter are also compared to surface roughness derived from an airborne LiDAR track covering a subset of FYI and MYI (no DFYI). Overall, NDAI and backscatter are significantly positively correlated when all ice type samples are considered. When individual ice types are evaluated, NDAI and backscatter are only significantly correlated for DFYI. Both NDAI and backscatter are correlated with LiDAR-derived roughness (r = 0.71 and r = 0.74, respectively). The relationship between NDAI and roughness is greater for MYI than FYI, whereas for backscatter and ice roughness, the relationship is greater for FYI than MYI. Linear regression models are created for the estimation of FYI and MYI roughness from NDAI, and FYI roughness from backscatter. Results suggest that using a combination of Sentinel-1 backscatter for FYI and MISR NDAI for MYI may be optimal for mapping winter sea-ice roughness in the CAA.

Description: Drumlins form at the ice/bed interface through subglacial processes that are not directly observable. The internal stratigraphy of drumlins provides insight into how they developed and associated subglacial processes, but traditional stratigraphic logging techniques are limited to natural exposures and excavations. Using ground-penetrating radar, we imaged the internal stratigraphy of seven drumlins from a recently exposed drumlin field in the forefield of Múlajökull, Iceland. Data were collected with 100 and 200 MHz antennas with maximum resolvable depths of 8 and 4 m, respectively. Longitudinal echograms contained coherent down-ice dipping reflectors over the lengths of the drumlins. Near the drumlin heads (i.e., stoss sides), down-glacier dipping beds lie at high angles to the surface, whereas on the lee sides, the down-glacier dipping beds lie at low angles, or conform, to drumlin surfaces. Transverse echograms exhibited unconformities along the flanks of drumlin heads and conformable bedding across the lee side widths of the drumlins. These observations were ground-truthed with stratigraphic logs from a subset of drumlins and good agreement was found. The stratigraphic patterns support previous conclusions that drumlins at Múlajökull formed on a deformable bed through both depositional and erosional processes which may alternate between its surge and quiescent phases.

Description: The Souter Head sub-volcanic complex (Aberdeenshire, Scotland) intruded the high-grade metamorphic core of the Grampian Orogen at 469.1 ± 0.6 Ma (uranium-238–lead-206 (238U–206Pb) zircon). It follows closely peak metamorphism and deformation in the Grampian Terrane and tightly constrains the end of the Grampian Event of the Caledonian Orogeny. Temporally coincident U–Pb and argon/argon (40Ar/39Ar) data show the complex cooled quickly with temperatures decreasing from ca.800 °C to less than 200 °C within 1 Ma. Younger rhenium–osmium (Re–Os) ages are due to post-emplacement alteration of molybdenite to powellite. The U–Pb and Ar/Ar data combined with existing geochronological data show that D2/D3 deformation, peak metamorphism (Barrovian and Buchan style) and basic magmatism in NE Scotland were synchronous at ca.470 Ma and are associated with rapid uplift (5–10 km Ma−1) of the orogen, which, by ca.469 Ma, had removed the cover to the metamorphic pile. Rapid uplift resulted in decompressional melting and the generation of mafic and felsic magmatism. Shallow slab break-off (50–100 km) is invoked to explain the synchroneity of these events. This interpretation implies that peak metamorphism and D2/D3 ductile deformation were associated with extension. Similarities in the nature and timing of orogenic events in Connemara, western Ireland, with NE Scotland suggest that shallow slab break-off occurred in both localities.

Description: To get the best result for seismic imaging using primary reflections, data with densely-spaced sources and receivers are ideally preferred. However, dense acquisition can sometimes be hindered by various obstacles, like platforms or complex topography. Such areas with large data gaps may deter exploration or monitoring, as conventional imaging strategies would either provide poor seismic images or turn out to be very expensive. Surface-related multiples travel along different paths compared to primaries, illuminating a wider subsurface area and hence making them valuable in case of data with large gaps. We propose different strategies of using surface-related multiples to get around the problem of imaging in the case of a large data gap. Conventional least-squares imaging methods that incorporate surface-related multiples do so by re-injecting the measured wavefield in the forward-modelling process, which makes it still sensitive to missing data. We introduce a ‘non-linear’ inversion approach in which the surface multiples are modelled from the original source field. This makes the method less dependent on the receiver geometry, therefore, effectively exploiting the information from surface multiples in cases of limited illumination. However, such an approach is sensitive to the knowledge of the source properties. Therefore, we propose a ‘hybrid’ method that combines the non-linear imaging method with the conventional ‘linear’ multiple imaging method, which further improves our imaging result. We test the methods on numerical as well as field data. The results indicate substantial removal of artefacts in the image derived from linear imaging methods due to incomplete data, by exploiting the surface multiples to a maximum extent.

Description: Ancient cities are excellent spatiotemporal indicators for the study of historical human activities and environmental change. The ancient city of Sanchahe is located at the southern margin of the Mu Us Desert, China. It is an ideal location for studying the complex relationships between historical desertification and human activities. Field observations of the ancient city walls, a well, and a spring, as well as 14C dating, grain size, spatial analysis of archaeological sites, and analyses of historical seismicity, indicated that neotectonics may have contributed to crustal uplift and accelerated fluvial incision of the Wuding River. This rapid incision caused a decline in groundwater levels, which is an important reason for the irreversible environmental degradation around Sanchahe city over the past 800 yr. This study provides new evidence for such environmental degradation and may contribute to a better understanding of historical desertification in the Mu Us Desert.

Description: The Lu–Hf isotope system and Sr–Nd–Hf–Os isotope systematics of mantle rocks are capable of unravelling the early processes in collision belts, especially in a hot subduction context where the Sm–Nd and U–Pb systems in crustal rocks are prone to resetting owing to high temperatures and interaction with melts during exhumation. To improve models of the Devonian–Carboniferous evolution of the Bohemian Massif, we investigated in detail mafic and ultramafic rocks (eclogite, pyroxenite, and peridotite) from the ultrahigh-pressure and ultrahigh-temperature Kutná Hora Crystalline Complex (KHCC: Úhrov, Bečváry, Doubrava, and Spačice localities). Petrography, multiphase solid inclusions, major and trace element compositions of rocks and minerals, and radiogenic isotopic data document contrasting sources and protoliths as well as effects of subduction-related processes for these rocks. The Úhrov peridotite has a depleted composition corresponding to the suboceanic asthenospheric mantle, whereas Bečváry and Doubrava peridotites represent lithospheric mantle that underwent melt refertilization by basaltic and SiO2-undersaturated melts, respectively. Multiphase solid inclusions enclosed in garnet from Úhrov and Bečváry peridotites represent trapped H2O ± CO2-bearing metasomatizing agents and Fe–Ti-rich melts. The KHCC eclogites either formed by high-pressure crystal accumulation from mantle-derived basaltic melts (Úhrov) or represent a fragment of mid-ocean ridge basalt-like gabbroic cumulate (Spačice) and crustal-derived material (Doubrava) both metamorphosed at high P–T conditions. The Lu–Hf age of 395 ± 23 Ma obtained for the Úhrov peridotite reflects garnet growth related to burial of the asthenospheric mantle during subduction of the oceanic slab. By contrast, Spačice and Doubrava eclogites yield younger Lu–Hf ages of ∼350 and 330 Ma, respectively, representing mixed ages as demonstrated by the strong granulite-facies overprint and trace element zoning in garnet grains. We propose a refined model for the Early Variscan evolution of the Bohemian Massif starting with the subduction of the oceanic crust (Saxothuringian ocean) and associated oceanic asthenospheric mantle (Úhrov) beneath the Teplá–Barrandian at ≥380 Ma, which was responsible for melt refertilization of the associated mantle wedge (Bečváry, Doubrava). This was followed by continental subduction (∼370–360 Ma?) accompanied by the oceanic slab break-off and incorporation of the upwelling asthenospheric mantle into the Moldanubian lithospheric mantle and subsequent coeval exhumation of mantle and crustal rocks at ∼350–330 Ma.

Description: Summary Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding (VDSS) uses the arrival time of post-critical SsPmp relative to the direct S wave to infer Moho depth at the Pmp reflection point. Due to the large offset between the virtual source and the receiver, SsPmp is more sensitive to lateral variations of structures than near-vertical phases such as Ps, which is used to construct conventional P receiver functions. However, the way post-critical SsPmp is affected by lateral variations in lithospheric structure is not well understood, and previous studies largely assumed a 1D structure when analyzing SsPmp waveforms. Here we present synthetic tests with various 2D models to show that lateral variations in lithospheric structures, from the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary to sedimentary basins, profoundly affect travel time, phase, and amplitude of post-critical SsPmp, and that a 1D approximation is usually inappropriate when analyzing 2D data. Despite these strong effects we show, with synthetic examples and the ChinArray data from the Ordos Block in northern China, that a simple ray-theory-based back-projection method can retrieve the geometry of the crust-mantle boundary given array observations in cases with moderate lateral variations in the crust-mantle boundary and/or the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The success of our back-projection method indicates that ray-theory approximations are sufficient in modeling SsPmp travel times in the presence of moderate lateral heterogeneity. In contrast, we show that the ray theory is generally insufficient in modeling SsPmp phase shifts in a strongly heterogeneous lithosphere due to non-planar down-going P waves incident at the crust-mantle boundary. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate the feasibility of direct imaging of the crust-mantle boundary with post-critical SsPmp even in the presence of 2D variations of lithospheric structure.

Description: Progress towards ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for useful tools to prioritize actions. To select suitable methods for local circumstances, evaluating approaches used in other jurisdictions can be a cost-effective first step. We tested Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to assess the potential vulnerability of the marine fish community in the Skagerrak–Kattegat (Eastern North Sea) to possible interactions with all Swedish fisheries operating in the area. This analysis combines attributes for a species productivity with attributes related to the susceptibility to capture to quantify a single score for vulnerability: high, medium, or low risk. Results indicate that demersal trawl and gillnet fisheries were associated with the highest risk levels if interaction occurs, i.e. having the highest prevalence of species with potentially high vulnerability to the fisheries. Mixed results were seen when comparing the assessment results with available data. The main benefit of utilizing PSA in the area is the comprehensiveness of the assessment, including data-deficient fisheries and species. Drawbacks include potential overestimation of actual risks. Overall, together with available data, PSA in the studied area provides a comprehensive map of potential risks for further actions and may progress a science-based, precautionary management of the area.

Description: While fisheries provide food and employment for hundreds of millions of people, they also can have significant impact on biodiversity. We explore the potential of area-based fisheries management to simultaneously maintain biodiversity and high levels of sustainable food production. We used two illustrative examples of fisheries that have different gear types, areas, and species to evaluate the trade-off between biodiversity and harvest. We calculate the optimal effort by gear and area that maximizes a weighted objective function of biodiversity and harvest, ranging from 100% of the weight on harvest to 100% on biodiversity. We found for both case studies that the trade-off was highly convex, with win–win solutions allowing for high levels of both fishery harvest and conservation. This is achieved by reducing or eliminating fishing effort that negatively impacts high conservation value species while maintaining fishing effort with gears and in areas where there is low conservation impact. We suggest that, in most fisheries, such situations can be found and that effective area-based management can provide for high levels of biodiversity protection and food production.

Description: A Fast Ice Prediction System (FIPS) was constructed and is the first regional land-fast sea-ice forecasting system for the Antarctic. FIPS had two components: (1) near-real-time information on the ice-covered area from MODIS and SAR imagery that revealed, tidal cracks, ridged and rafted ice regions; (2) a high-resolution 1-D thermodynamic snow and ice model (HIGHTSI) that was extended to perform a 2-D simulation on snow and ice evolution using atmospheric forcing from ECMWF: either using ERA-Interim reanalysis (in hindcast mode) or HERS operational 10-day predictions (in forecast mode). A hindcast experiment for the 2015 season was in good agreement with field observations, with a mean bias of 0.14 ± 0.07 m and a correlation coefficient of 0.98 for modeled ice thickness. The errors are largely caused by a cold bias in the atmospheric forcing. The thick snow cover during the 2015 season led to modeled formation of extensive snow ice and superimposed ice. The first FIPS operational service was performed during the 2017/18 season. The system predicted a realistic ice thickness and onset of snow surface melt as well as the area of internal ice melt. The model results on the snow and ice properties were considered by the captain of R/V Xuelong when optimizing a low-risk route for on-ice transportation through fast ice to the coastal Zhongshan Station.

Description: To determine the failure characteristics and evolution regularity of the floor strata during fully mechanised top-coal cave mining in typical deep and extra-thick seams in western China, the 61303 working face of an Ordos mine was selected as the engineering research object. A comprehensive monitoring method combining a BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time-Domain Reflection) distributed fiber strain test and a borehole resistivity CT (Computerised Tomography) test was adopted. The results show that floor stress distribution of the deep-buried and extra-thick coal seam is significantly affected by the different depths of rock lithology. At the interface of the rock strata with a large difference in the elastic modulus, phenomena such as the asynchronism of strata movement and obvious differences in failure easily occur. The failure depth of the floor strata in the 61303 working face is approximately 15.90 m, and the influence depth of the floor disturbance is approximately 32.70 m. Under the influence of the mining pressure, floor stress distribution and crack evolution have obvious spatial and temporal effects. In different inclined boreholes, the data captured by the cable have different values and the fracture locations of the cable also differ. Compared with a single borehole, multiple boreholes with different inclinations, directions and locations can provide more comprehensive and reliable data trends. The knowledge obtained by this monitoring can provide reference information for the study of floor damage under similar conditions and the formulation of technical measures such as those that prevent mine water disasters.

Description: Summary The Mw 6.0 earthquake that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016 caused an abnormally high level of destruction in the town of Amatrice. In order to clarify the role of site response in causing such a disaster, a series of ambient noise recordings acquired in the aftermath of the event are analysed here to identify site resonance properties from the ratios H/V between horizontal and vertical amplitudes of ground motion. Although the noise data acquisition was limited by the emergency management activities, the use of a new analysis technique, which isolates the contribution of Rayleigh waves to the noise wavefield and averages instantaneous estimates of H/V ratios, provided more stable results compared to the standard Nakamura's technique based on mean spectral ratios. The results demonstrated the occurrence of significant resonance phenomena, but without an obvious correlation with the spatial distribution of damage severity. It is apparent that the damage severity was also influenced by some additional local factors related to building vulnerability. Moreover, the time series analysis revealed seasonal variations in the Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves likely related to the water content changes in the surface deposits and their influence on the Poisson coefficient. Finally, the new method proved capable of recognizing time-varying directions of Rayleigh wave propagation. This capability could be exploited to support other passive seismic methods (e.g. ReMi), whose results reliability is limited by the lack of control on wave direction origin.

Description: SUMMARY This paper explores the effects on tsunami simulations of the level of detail of the bathymetric grid in use. For this purpose, we expand available bathymetric data sets of the Pacific Basin in spherical harmonics. For realistic scenarios of tsunamis generated by earthquake dislocations, we conclude that an expansion to a maximum degree lmax = 40, corresponding to wavelengths of 1000 km, is sufficient to reproduce the main features of the tsunami wavefield synthesized in deep water, that is, without considering final shoaling and interaction with coastal features.

Description: The evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice in summer is one of the main factors that affect sea-ice albedo and hence the polar climate system. Due to the different spectral properties of open water, melt pond and sea ice, the melt pond fraction (MPF) can be retrieved using a fully constrained least-squares algorithm, which shows a high accuracy with root mean square error ~0.06 based on the validation experiment using WorldView-2 image. In this study, the evolution of ponds on first-year and multiyear ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago was compared based on Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 images. The relationships of pond coverage with air temperature and albedo were analysed. The results show that the pond coverage on first-year ice changed dramatically with seasonal maximum of 54%, whereas that on multiyear ice changed relatively flat with only 30% during the entire melting period. During the stage of pond formation, the ponds expanded rapidly when the temperature increased to over 0°C for three consecutive days. Sea-ice albedo shows a significantly negative correlation (R = −1) with the MPF in melt season and increases gradually with the refreezing of ponds and sea ice.

Description: We report apatite fission-track and 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) dating of 14 moraine boulders originating from inland Terre Adélie, East Antarctica. These data show cooling of the Proterozoic Terre Adélie craton at 〈 ~120°C between 350 and 300 Ma, suggesting 〉 4 km temperate glacial erosion during the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age, followed by nearly null Mesozoic erosion and low glacial erosion (〈 2 km) in the Cenozoic. Based on glacial flux maps, the origin of the boulders may be located ~400 km upstream. Preliminary TCN (10Be) datings of moraine boulders cluster within the last 30 ka. Cosmogenic ages from the Lacroix Nunatak suggest a main deglaciation after the Younger Dryas at c. 10 ka, while those of Cap Prud'homme mostly cluster at 0.6 ka, in agreement with an exhumation of boulders during the Little Ice Age.

Description: Glacial environments exhibit temporally variable microseismicity. To investigate how microseismicity influences event detection, we implement two noise-adaptive digital power detectors to process seismic data from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. We add scaled icequake waveforms to the original data stream, run detectors on the hybrid data stream to estimate reliable detection magnitudes and compare analytical magnitudes predicted from an ice crack source model. We find that detection capability is influenced by environmental microseismicity for seismic events with source size comparable to thermal penetration depths. When event counts and minimum detectable event sizes change in the same direction (i.e. increase in event counts and minimum detectable event size), we interpret measured seismicity changes as ‘true’ seismicity changes rather than as changes in detection. Generally, one detector (two degree of freedom (2dof)) outperforms the other: it identifies more events, a more prominent summertime diurnal signal and maintains a higher detection capability. We conclude that real physical processes are responsible for the summertime diurnal inter-detector difference. One detector (3dof) identifies this process as environmental microseismicity; the other detector (2dof) identifies it as elevated waveform activity. Our analysis provides an example for minimizing detection biases and estimating source sizes when interpreting temporal seismicity patterns to better infer glacial seismogenic processes.

Description: SUMMARY Full-waveform inversion (FWI) has demonstrated increasing success in estimating medium properties, but its computational cost still poses challenges in moving towards high-resolution imaging of targets at depth. Here, we propose a target-oriented FWI method that inverts for the medium parameters confined within an arbitrary region of interest. Our method is novel in terms of both local wavefield modelling and data redatuming, in order to build a target-oriented objective function which is sensitive to the target medium only without further assumptions about the medium outside. Based on the convolution-type representation theorem, our local forward modelling operator propagates wavefields within the target medium only while providing full acoustic coupling between the target medium and the surrounding geology. A key requirement of our local FWI method is that the subsurface wavefields surrounding and inside the target be as accurate as possible. As such, the subsurface wavefields are retrieved by the Marchenko method, which can redatum the single-sided surface reflection data to the target zone while preserving both primary and multiple reflections, with minimal a priori knowledge of the full-domain medium. Given a sufficiently accurate initial velocity macromodel, our numerical examples show that our local FWI method resolves the reservoir zone of a 2-D Barrett Unconventional P-wave velocity model much more efficiently than the conventional full-domain FWI without significantly sacrificing accuracy. Our method may further enable FWI approaches to high-resolution imaging of subsurface targets.

Description: The Changning–Menglian orogenic belt (CMOB) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is an important link between the Longmu Co–Shuanghu suture (LCSS) in the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Chiang Mai–Inthanon and Bentong–Raub sutures in Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia. These belts and sutures are generally regarded as containing the remnants of the oceanic crust of the Palaeo-Tethys that formed by seafloor spreading as a result of the separation of Gondwana- and Eurasia-derived blocks during the Middle Cambrian. In this paper we report the first discovery of abundant unaltered and retrograde eclogites that occur as irregular lenses and blocks in metasedimentary rocks of the CMOB, and these eclogites form an elongate and almost north–south-trending high-pressure (HP)–ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic belt that is ∼200 km long and ∼50 km wide. The newly discovered phengite/talc/epidote–glaucophane eclogites, lawsonite–talc–phengite eclogites, dolomite/magnesite–kyanite eclogites and phengite–kyanite-bearing retrograde eclogites have enriched (E-) and normal mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB)-like affinities and mainly positive as well as some negative whole-rock εNd values (–4·34 to +7·89), which suggest an enriched and depleted oceanic lithosphere source for their protoliths. Magmatic zircons separated from the epidote–glaucophane, magnesite–kyanite and (phengite–kyanite-bearing) retrograde eclogites gave protolith ages of 317–250 Ma, which fit well within the time frame of the opening of the Palaeo-Tethys during the Middle Cambrian and its closure during the Triassic. Abundant metamorphic zircons in the eclogites indicate a Triassic metamorphic event related to the subduction of the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic crust from 235 to 227 Ma. Taking into account previous isotopic age data, we now establish the periods of Early–Middle Triassic (246–227 Ma) and Late Triassic (222–209 Ma) as the ages of subduction and exhumation of the Palaeo-Tethyan oceanic crust, respectively. Thermodynamic modelling revealed that the eclogites record distinct HP–UHP peak metamorphic conditions of 23·0–25·5 kbar and 582–610 °C for the phengite–glaucophane eclogites, 24·0–25·5 kbar and 570–586 °C for the talc–glaucophane eclogites, 29·0–31·0 kbar and 675–712 °C for the dolomite–kyanite eclogites, and 30·0–32·0 kbar and 717–754 °C for the magnesite–kyanite eclogites. These P–T estimates and geochronological data indicate that the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic slab was subducted to different mantle depths from 75 km down to 95 km, forming distinct types of eclogite with a variety of peak eclogite-facies mineral assemblages. The eclogites consistently record clockwise metamorphic P–T–t paths characterized by a heating–compression prograde loop under a low geothermal gradient of 5–10 °C km–1, indicating the rapid subduction of cold oceanic crust at a rate of 4·5–6·0 km Ma–1, followed by isothermal or cooling–decompressive retrogression and exhumation at an average rate of 3·2–4·2 km Ma–1. The newly discovered eclogites of the CMOB with their signatures of ocean-crust subduction are petrologically, geochemically and geochronologically comparable with those of the LCSS, providing powerful support for the idea that a nearly 2000 km long HP–UHP eclogite belt extends from the northern Tibetan Plateau to the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and that it represents the main boundary suture of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain. These results have far-reaching implications for the tectonic framework and complex metamorphic evolution of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain.

Description: Whole-rock major and trace elements and Hf isotopes of magmatic zircons of tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite (TTG) rocks with different ages (2.9, 2.7 and 2.5 Ga) from the three blocks (the Eastern Block, Western Block and Trans-North China Orogen) of the North China Craton were compiled to investigate their respective petrogenesis, tectonic setting and implications for crustal growth and evolution. Geochemical features of the 2.5 Ga TTGs of the Eastern Block require melting of predominant rutile-bearing eclogite and subordinate garnet-amphibolite at higher pressure, while the source material of the 2.7 Ga TTGs is garnet-amphibolite or granulite at lower pressure. The 2.5 Ga TTGs have high Mg#, Cr and Ni, negative Nb–Ta anomalies and a juvenile basaltic crustal source, indicating derivation from the melting of a subducting slab. In contrast, features of the 2.7 Ga TTGs suggest generation from melting of thickened lower crust. The 2.5 and 2.7 Ga TTGs in the Trans-North China Orogen were formed at garnet-amphibolite to eclogite facies, and the source material of the 2.5 Ga TTGs in the Western Block is most likely garnet-amphibolite or eclogite. The 2.5 Ga TTGs in the Trans-North China Orogen and Western Block were generated by the melting of a subducting slab, whereas the 2.7 Ga TTGs in the Trans-North China Orogen derived from melting of thickened lower crust. The Hf isotopic data suggest both the 2.5 and 2.7 Ga TTG magmas were involved with contemporary crustal growth and reworking. The two-stage model age (TDM2) histograms show major crustal growth between 2.9 and 2.7 Ga for the whole North China Craton.

Description: The accuracy of sea-ice motion products provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) was validated with data collected by ice drifters that were deployed in the western Arctic Ocean in 2014 and 2016. Data from both NSIDC and OSI-SAF products exhibited statistically significant (p 〈 0.001) correlation with drifter data. The OSI-SAF product tended to overestimate ice speed, while underestimation was demonstrated for the NSIDC product, especially for the melt season and the marginal ice zone. Monthly Lagrangian trajectories of ice floes were reconstructed using the products. Larger spatial variability in the deviation between NSIDC and drifter trajectories was observed than that of OSI-SAF, and seasonal variability in the deviation for NSIDC was observed. Furthermore, trajectories reconstructed using the NSIDC product were sensitive to variations in sea-ice concentration. The feasibility of using remote-sensing products to characterize sea-ice deformation was assessed by evaluating the distance between two arbitrary positions as estimated by the products. Compared with the OSI-SAF product, relative errors are lower (

Description: Nektaspids are Palaeozoic non-biomineralized euarthropods that were at the peak of their diversity during the Cambrian Period. Post-Cambrian nektaspids are a low-diversity group with only a few species described so far. Here we describe Tariccoia tazagurtensis, a new species of small-bodied nektaspid from the Lower Ordovician Fezouata Shale of Morocco. The new species differs from the type (and only other known) species from the Ordovician strata of Sardinia (Italy), Tariccoia arrusensis, in possessing more pointed genal angles, a cephalon with marginal rim, a pygidium with anterior margin curved forwards, a rounded posterior margin, and longer and more curved thoracic tergites. The two specimens of T. tazagurtensis sp. nov. show remains of digestive glands that are comparable to those seen in the Cambrian nektaspid Naraoia. The rare occurrence of T. tazagurtensis sp. nov. in the Fezouata Shale and the distribution of other liwiids suggest that these liwiids were originally minor members of open-marine communities during the Cambrian Period, and migrated into colder brackish or restricted seas during the Ordovician Period.

Description: Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and nature of subduction events during the closure of the Tethyan seas in what is now NW Iran. This study thus presents new geochemical compositions and U–Pb ages for a suite of volcanic rocks emplaced during Cenozoic volcanism in the west Alborz Magmatic Assemblage, which is commonly regarded as the back-arc of the Neotethyan magmatism in Central Iran. The subalkali basalts and andesites are dated to 57 ± 1.2 Ma, and are likely derived from a supra-subduction mantle wedge. Later, trachytic A-type rocks erupted from ~42 to 25 Ma during an anorogenic (extensional) stage triggered by slab retreat and associated asthenospheric mantle influx. A-type melts were at least partly concurrent with lithospheric mantle magmatism implied by eruption of subalkali basalts–andesites around 26–24 Ma. Next, Amp-Bt trachybasaltic volcanism with high-Nb basaltic affinity at ~19 Ma likely records slab deepening and slab partial melting, which reacted with the mantle wedge to produce the source material for the high-Nb basalts. Sr–Nd isotopic ratios for SE Ahar mafic as well as A-type rocks imply rather enriched mantle source(s). Some crustal contamination is implied by the presence of inherited zircons dominated by those derived from Neoproterozoic–Cambrian basement rocks and Carboniferous magmatism. Rhyolitic rocks with adakitic affinity probably mark the final volcanism in the study area. The adakitic rocks show crustal signatures such as high K and Th, probably formed as a consequence of higher temperature gradients, at crustal levels, imposed by both slab and mantle partial melts.

Description: Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is considered a fundamental molecule in prebiotic chemistry experiments due to the fact that it could have an important role as raw material to form more complex molecules, as well as it could be an intermediate molecule in chemical reactions. However, the primitive scenarios in which this molecule might be available have been widely discussed. Hydrothermal systems have been considered as abiotic reactors and ideal niches for chemical evolution. Nevertheless, several experiments have shown that high temperatures and pressures could be adverse to the stability of organic molecules. Thus, it is necessary to carry out systematic experiments to study the synthesis, stability and fate of organic molecules in hydrothermal scenarios. In this work, we performed experiments focused on the stability and fate of HCN under a simple hydrothermal system scenario: the thermolysis of HCN at 100°C, at acidic and basic pH and in the presence of Mg-montmorillonite. Furthermore, we analysed the products from HCN thermolysis and highlighted the role of these chemical species as prebiotic molecules under a hydrothermal scenario.

Description: The cross-sectional profile of a glacial valley can be obtained with a variational principle in which the friction against the valley walls and the glacier bed is extremized, subject to a Lagrangian constraint. We show that the actual valley profile maximizes the friction, thus settling an old debate.

Description: The objective of this study was to identify attitudes towards the scientific search for extraterrestrial life among students from public and private universities in Peru. This research was inspired by similar studies, realized in Sweden, which used the same instrument adapting it to our reality. The process consisted of a survey of the Peruvian student population by targeting it in different regions of Peru. The sample consisted of 1237 students from different academic areas. The findings show that 92% of the students believe in the existence of life outside our planet, with differences between the subgroups surveyed.

Description: SUMMARY Determining rock microstructure remains challenging, since a proper rock-physics model is needed to establish the relation between pore microstructure and elastic and transport properties. We present a model to estimate pore microstructure based on porosity, ultrasonic velocities and permeability, assuming that the microstructure consists on randomly oriented stiff equant pores and penny-shaped cracks. The stiff pore and crack porosity varying with differential pressure is estimated from the measured total porosity on the basis of a dual porosity model. The aspect ratio of pores and cracks and the crack density as a function of differential pressure are obtained from dry-rock P- and S-wave velocities, by using a differential effective medium model. These results are used to invert the pore radius from the matrix permeability by using a circular pore model. Above a crack density of 0.13, the crack radius can be estimated from permeability, and below that threshold, the radius is estimated from P-wave velocities, taking into account the wave dispersion induced by local fluid flow between pores and cracks. The approach is applied to experimental data for dry and saturated Fontainebleau sandstone and Chelmsford Granite.

Description: Astrobiology has been gaining increasing scientific prominence and public attention as the search for life beyond Earth continues to make significant headway on multiple fronts. In view of these recent developments, the fascinating and dynamic etymology of astrobiology is elucidated, and thus shown to encompass a plethora of vivid characters drawn from different continents, religions, ideologies and centuries.

Description: Multiple-layered coal seams widely exist in main coal mining areas of China. When these coal seams are exploited, the pillar mining method is always employed. This leads to many coal pillars left in the upper coal seams as a protective barrier. As a result, these residual pillars will not only cause the loss of coal resources but also could trigger environmental issues and a serious of mine disasters. A theoretical model was built to analyse the effect of the residual pillars. From the theoretical model, it was found that four stress concentration areas were formed by the upper residual coal pillars. To address the issues of the residual coal pillars, Datong Coal Mine Group has developed an innovative technology of the roof cutting with a chainsaw. A new protective coal seam mining method using chainsaw roof-cutting technology is introduced. A numerical model is constructed to analyse the mining pressure distribution law in working face within the lower layer coal seam. From the numerical simulation, the new protective layer mining method could reduce about 15.2% of the advancing stress, which contributes a lot to controlling the mining pressure within the lower layer. The field measurement showed that the hydraulic support utilised at the site was at lower pressure levels, which proves the new protective seam mining method can significantly reduce the working face pressure.

Description: Quantifying the rate of wave attenuation in sea ice is key to understanding trends in the Antarctic marginal ice zone extent. However, a paucity of observations of waves in sea ice limits progress on this front. We deployed 14 waves-in-ice observation systems (WIIOS) on Antarctic sea ice during the Polynyas, Ice Production, and seasonal Evolution in the Ross Sea expedition (PIPERS) in 2017. The WIIOS provide in situ measurement of surface wave characteristics. Two experiments were conducted, one while the ship was inbound and one outbound. The sea ice throughout the experiments generally consisted of pancake and young ice

Description: Recent application of Fourier transform near infra-red spectroscopy (FT-NIRS) to predict age in fish otoliths has gained attention among fisheries managers as a potential alternative to costly production ageing of managed species. We assessed the age prediction capability of FT-NIRS scans in whole otoliths from red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, collected from the US Gulf of Mexico and US Atlantic Ocean (South Atlantic). Otoliths were scanned with an FT-NIR spectrometer and resulting spectral signatures were regressed with traditionally estimated ages via partial least squares regression to produce calibration models, which were validated for predictive capability against test sets of otoliths. Calibration models successfully predicted age with R2 ranging 0.94–0.95, mean squared error ≤1.8 years, and bias 31 years were not well predicted, possibly due to light attenuation in the thickest otoliths. Our results suggest that FT-NIRS can improve efficiency in production ageing for fisheries management while maintaining data quality standards.

Description: Replacive symplectites (vermicular intergrowths of two or more minerals) are an important feature of layered igneous intrusions, recording evidence of late-stage reactions between interstitial liquid and crystals. They are common throughout the Layered Series of the 564 Ma Sept Iles layered intrusion in Quebec, Canada, and fall into three types: oxy-symplectites, ‘Type I’ symplectites, and ‘Type II’ symplectites. Oxy-symplectites are comprised of magnetite and orthopyroxene, nucleate on olivine primocrysts, and form via the reaction Olivine + O2 → Orthopyroxene + Magnetite; Type I symplectites (of which there are 3 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with pyroxene, amphibole, or olivine vermicules, grow from primocryst oxide grains, and replace primary plagioclase; and Type II symplectites (of which there are 2 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with orthopyroxene ± amphibole vermicules, grow from primocryst olivine grains, and replace primocryst plagioclase. Rare symplectites composed of biotite and plagioclase are also present. Symplectite growth occurred at 700-1030 °C with pressure constraints of 1-2 kbar. We propose that Type I symplectites, and some Type II symplectites, formed from interaction of primocrysts with residual Fe-rich liquid as a consequence of differential loss of an immiscible Si-rich liquid conjugate from the crystal mush. However, redistribution and concentration of hydrous fluids in incompletely solidified rock, or an increase in water activity of the interstitial melt, may be more plausible processes responsible for the formation of replacive symplectites comprising abundant hydrous mineral assemblages.

Description: This article investigates the diet of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and its feeding intensity in the Barents Sea. Data show that snow crab has a diverse diet that includes almost all types of benthic invertebrates living in the Barents Sea. There are differences between the diets of females and males and of juveniles and adults. Juveniles and females typically occupy shallow areas with communities of bivalve molluscs, while males typically live deeper on slopes and depressions where polychaetes and crustaceans are the most abundant groups. Stomach contents were analysed to determine the species composition and frequency of occurrence of various benthic taxa. Consumption of food was estimated and compared with data from the Russian seas of the Pacific region. The total annual consumption of macrozoobenthos by snow crab was calculated in accordance with its current distribution in the Barents Sea. Snow crab consumes at least 30 000 tonnes of benthos annually, which amounts to 0.1–0.2% of the total macrozoobenthic biomass in the investigated area. The population of snow crab causes the largest impact on the benthic communities in the northeastern part of the Barents Sea and near the south side of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

Description: Deglaciation of high mountain rockwalls alters slope stability as rockwalls become more sensitive to modifications in environmental factors (e.g. seasonal temperature variations). In the past decades, increasing efforts focused on studying deglaciated Alpine rockwalls. Yet, currently deglaciating rockfaces remain unstudied. Here, we quantify surface area variations of massive ice bodies lying on high mountain rockwalls (ice aprons) in the French sector of the Mont Blanc massif between the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and 2018. Surface area estimates are computed from terrestrial and aerial oblique photographs via photogrammetry. This technique allows using photographs taken without scientific intent, and to tap into diverse historical or recent photographic catalogs. We derive an ice apron surface area model from precipitation records and the positive degree-days. The studied ice aprons shrank from 1854 to the 1950s, before expanding until the end of the 1990s. The beginning of the 21st century shows a decrease in surface area, leading to the complete melt of one of the studied ice aprons in 2017. Observed variations correlate with modeled surface area, suggesting strong sensitivity of ice aprons to changes in climatic variables. By studying site-specific correlations, we explore the importance of local drivers over the balance of ice aprons.

Description: Until the late 19th century, extensive beds of flat oyster Ostrea edulis populated the Central North Sea, which have vanished after intensive fisheries. At present, various initiatives are being carried out to investigate the potential to restore this former key species in the area. This historical ecological study contributes by delineating the former oyster bed area and through an assessment of its limits against known gradients in the North Sea. Extensive data from historical maps, texts, and ship-based surveys were used to synthesize our knowledge on the former beds. It was revealed that the area with oyster beds covered ∼6.2% of the total North Sea bottom, with a delineation that could partly be explained by hydrodynamic and temperature gradients. The position and extent of the area are notably different from the area that is used in recent feasibility studies on the restoration of North Sea oyster beds. The offshore oysters lived on muddy sand in relatively cold conditions, and there are several indications that their reproductive rate was low. The apparent disappearance of cold water adapted flat oysters will challenge restoration projects. This study provides indispensable information for the future restoration of flat oyster beds in the North Sea.

Description: This study focused on the ability of the Antarctic bacterium Rhodococcus sp. strain AQ5-14 to survive exposure to and to degrade high concentrations of phenol at 0.5 g l-1. After initial evaluation of phenol-degrading performance, the effects of salinity, pH and temperature on the rate of phenol degradation were examined. The optimum conditions for phenol degradation were pH 7 and 0.4 g l-1 NaCl at a temperature of 25°C (83.90%). An analysis using response surface methodology (RSM) and the Plackett-Burman design identified salinity, pH and temperature as three statistically significant factors influencing phenol degradation. The maximum bacterial growth was observed (optical density at 600 nm = 0.455), with medium conditions of pH 6.5, 22.5°C and 0.47 g l-1 NaCl in the central composite design of the RSM experiments enhancing phenol degradation to 99.10%. A central composite design was then used to examine the interactions among these three variables and to determine their optimal levels. There was excellent agreement (R2 = 0.9785) between experimental and predicted values, with less strong but still good agreement (R2 = 0.8376) between the predicted model values and those obtained experimentally under optimized conditions. Rhodococcus sp. strain AQ5-14 has excellent potential for the bioremediation of phenol.

Description: Summary Relative location of microearthquakes that occurred at Mt. Pollino (Italy) from 2011 to 2013 have been analyzed with the aim of a detailed imaging of the geometry of active faults. We identified 27 clusters composed of a number of earthquakes from 9 to 33, with local magnitude in the range 0.6–2.7. The relative location shows that the distribution of hypocenters in each cluster is characterized by extension from few tens of meters to at most 350 m. For each cluster the hypocenter distribution was fitted by a plane to infer the fault orientation, and results were compared with the fault plane solutions corresponding to the focal mechanism of earthquakes of the same cluster. The comparison shows a good agreement in most of the cases. The relative location analysis, generally applied to earthquakes with similar waveform, has been improved to permit also the relative location of earthquakes characterized by not similar signals. To achieve this purpose a modified procedure that overcome the condition of very similar waveforms has been applied to estimate the time delay between first pulses of the master events. The relative location of master events of all clusters shows a precise imaging of the relative position of all analyzed sources and allows also to follow with high accuracy the evolution in time of the seismic swarm within the selected periods. The hypocenter position of master events and the nearly parallel fitting planes of any clusters suggest that most of the analyzed earthquakes were produced by different patches of the same fault. The final results depict a main fault plane characterized by NW-SE strike, dip of about 35–45 degrees, and depth between 4.5 and 6.5 km b.s.l.. Focal mechanisms, used also to evaluate the local stress field, are mostly of normal type with few strike slip solutions for the shallowest events. This result is in good agreement with the local tectonic stress regime that is characterized by predominant NE-SW trans-tension, as inferred from structural, seismological and geophysical data.

Description: SUMMARY The source characteristics of offshore seismic events, especially regular (or fast) and slow earthquakes, can provide key information on their source physics and frictional conditions at the plate boundary. Due to strong 3-D heterogeneities in offshore regions, such as those relating to sea water, accretionary prism and small-scale velocity heterogeneity, conventional methods using a 1-D earth model may mis-estimate source parameters such as the duration and radiation energy. Estimations could become severe inaccuracies for small offshore seismic events because high-frequency (〉1 Hz) seismograms, which are strongly affected by 3-D heterogeneities, are only available for analysis because of their signal-to-noise ratio. To investigate the effects of offshore heterogeneities on source parameter estimation for small seismic events, we analysed both observed and simulated high-frequency seismograms southeast off the Kii Peninsula, Japan, in the Nankai subduction zone. Numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation using a 3-D velocity structure model clarified the effects of each heterogeneity. Comparisons between observations and model simulations demonstrated that the thick low-velocity accretionary prism has significant effects on high-frequency seismic wave propagation. Especially for shallow low-frequency tremors occurring at depths just below the accretionary prism toe, seismogram durations are significantly broader than an assumed source duration, even for stations with epicentral distances of approximately 10 km. Spindle-shape seismogram envelopes were observed even at such close stations. Our results suggest that incorporating 3-D heterogeneities is necessary for practical estimation of source parameters for small offshore events.

Description: Fuente Mudarra is on a gentle slope on the left bank of the Pico River, near Sierra de Atapuerca, Burgos, Spain. A 12−m2 test pit was dug at this large open-air site between 2012 and 2017. Several upper Pleistocene archaeological levels were documented. Results from Fuente Mudarra confirm that Neanderthal groups, little represented at cave sites, occupied Sierra de Atapuerca from the end of the middle Pleistocene and during the upper Pleistocene. The site also provides insight into Neanderthal spatial organization in the Atapuerca area and whether they used the caves in an occasional, non-habitual way like the open-air sites.

Description: SUMMARY We present an updated joint tomographic method to simultaneously invert receiver function waveforms and surface wave dispersions for a 3-D S-wave velocity (Vs) model. By applying this method to observations from ∼900 seismic stations and with a priori Moho constraints from previous studies, we construct a 3-D lithospheric S-wave velocity model and crustal-thickness map for the central–east Tibetan plateau. Data misfit/fitting shows that the inverted model can fit the receiver functions and surface wave dispersions reasonably well, and checkerboard tests show the model can retrieve major structural information. The results highlight several features. Within the plateau crustal thickness is 〉60 km and outwith the plateau it is ∼40 km. Obvious Moho offsets and lateral variations of crustal velocities exist beneath the eastern (Longmen Shan Fault), northern (central–east Kunlun Fault) and northeastern (east Kunlun Fault) boundaries of the plateau, but with decreasing intensity. Segmented high upper-mantle velocities have varied occurrences and depth extents from south/southwest to north/northeast in the plateau. A Z-shaped upper-mantle low-velocity channel, which was taken as Tibetan lithospheric mantle, reflecting deformable material lies along the northern and eastern periphery of the Tibetan plateau, seemingly separating two large high-velocity mantle areas that, respectively, correspond to the Indian and Asian lithospheres. Other small high-velocity mantle segments overlain by the Z-shaped channel are possibly remnants of cold microplates/slabs associated with subductions/collisions prior to the Indian–Eurasian collision during the accretion of the Tibetan region. By integrating the Vs structures with known tectonic information, we derive that the Indian slab generally underlies the plateau south of the Bangong–Nujiang suture in central Tibet and the Jinsha River suture in eastern Tibet and west of the Lanchangjiang suture in southeastern Tibet. The eastern, northern, northeastern and southeastern boundaries of the Tibetan plateau have undergone deformation with decreasing intensity. The weakly resisting northeast and southeast margins, bounded by a wider softer channel of uppermost mantle material, are two potential regions for plateau expansion in the future.

Description: The representation of iceberg calving in numerical models is a key source of uncertainty in century-scale sea-level rise projections. Parameters central to model representations of calving, including the tensile strength of glacier ice, remain poorly constrained. Grain-size and sample-size dependence make it difficult to reconcile laboratory and in situ estimates of ice tensile strength. Further, assumptions of various numerical models obscure comparison of the ‘strength’ parameter with a physically observable value. Here, we address the problem of fracture during calving using an analogous natural laboratory: a viscoelastic analysis of observed surface deformation and associated stresses in the 2015 collapse of eastern Skaftá cauldron, Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. We find that the ice within the cauldron could have experienced instantaneous elastic stress on the order of several MPa. We observe surface crevasses at the cauldron edges and center, but find that large areas of ice remain intact despite high stress. Our findings suggest a tensile strength of glacier ice on the order of 1 MPa, consistent with laboratory estimates but exceeding previous glacier-specific estimates.

Description: Climate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region.

Description: SUMMARY We present unambiguous evidence that the Mahogany salt body, located in the Northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, is seismically anisotropic. Evidence of anisotropy comes from shear wave splitting data obtained from a vertical seismic profile VSP. The data set consists of 48 vertically aligned receivers in a borehole drilled through the salt body. Splitting analysis is performed on shear wave phases that are converted from compressional waves at the top and bottom of the salt body. The phase converted at the top of the salt layer shows a clear signature of seismic anisotropy, while the phase at the base of the salt layer shows negligible splitting. We investigate the possibility of rock salt halite LPO as a cause of the observed anisotropy. A finite element geomechanical salt deformation model of the Mahogany salt body is developed, where deformation history is used as an input to the texture plasticity simulation program VPSC. Assuming a halite salt body, a full elasticity model is then calculated and used to create a synthetic VSP splitting data set. The comparison between the synthetic and real VSP data set shows that LPO of rock salt can explain the observed anisotropy remarkably well. This is the strongest evidence to date of seismic anisotropy in a deforming salt structure. Furthermore, for the first time, we are able to demonstrate clear evidence that deforming halite is the most likely cause of this anisotropy, combining data set analysis and synthetic full wave form modelling based on calculated rock salt elasticities. Neglecting anisotropy in seismic processing in salt settings could lead to potential imaging errors, for example the deformation models show an averaged delta parameter of δ = –0.06, which would lead in a zero offset reflection setting to a depth mismatch of 6.2 per cent. Our work also show how observations of salt anisotropy can be used to probe characteristics of salt deformation.

Description: Each summer, surface melting of the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet exposes a distinctive visible stratigraphy that is related to past variability in subaerial dust deposition across the accumulation zone and subsequent ice flow toward the margin. Here we map this surface stratigraphy along the northern margin of the ice sheet using mosaicked Sentinel-2 multispectral satellite imagery from the end of the 2019 melt season and finer-resolution WorldView-2/3 imagery for smaller regions of interest. We trace three distinct transitions in apparent dust concentration and the top of a darker basal layer. The three dust transitions have been identified previously as representing late-Pleistocene climatic transitions, allowing us to develop a coarse margin chronostratigraphy for northern Greenland. Substantial folding of late-Pleistocene stratigraphy is observed but uncommon. The oldest conformal surface-exposed ice in northern Greenland is likely located adjacent to Warming Land and may be up to ~55 thousand years old. Basal ice is commonly exposed hundreds of metres from the ice margin and may indicate a widespread frozen basal thermal state. We conclude that the ice margin across northern Greenland offers multiple opportunities to recover paleoclimatically distinct ice relative to previously studied regions in southwestern Greenland.

Description: Summary About a decade ago, noise-based monitoring became a key tool in seismology. One of the tools is Passive Image Interferometry (PII), which uses Noise Correlation Functions (NCF) to retrieve seismic velocity variations. Most studies apply PII to vertical components recording oceanic low-frequent ambient noise ( 1 Hz) on three three-component sensors. With environmental sensors inside the subsurface and in the air, we are able to connect observed velocity variations with environmental parameters. Temperatures below 0○C correlate well with strong shear wave velocity increases. The temperature sensors inside the ground suggest that a frozen layer of less than 5cm thickness causes apparent velocity increases above 2%, depending on the channel pair. The observations indicate that the different velocity variation retrieved from the different channel pairs are due to different surface wave responses inherent in the channel pairs. With dispersion curve modelling in a 1D medium we can verify that surfaces waves of several tens of meters wavelength experience a velocity increase of several percent due to a centimeters thick frozen layer. Moreover, the model verifies that Love waves show larger velocity increases than Rayleigh waves. The findings of this study provide new insights for monitoring with PII. A few days with temperature below 0○C can already mask other potential targets (e.g. faults or storage sites). Here we suggest to use vertical components, which is less sensitive to the frozen layer at the surface. If the target is the seasonal freezing, like in permafrost studies, we suggest to use three-component sensors in order to retrieve the Love wave response. This opens the possibility to study other small scale processes at the shallow subsurface with surface wave responses.

Description: SUMMARY The behaviour of tsunami waves at any location depends on the local morphology of the coasts, the encountered bathymetric features, and the characteristics of the source. However, the importance of accurately modelling the geometric properties of the causative fault for simulations of seismically induced tsunamis is rarely addressed. In this work, we analyse the effects of using two different geometric models of the subduction interface of the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy, Ionian Sea) onto the simulated tsunamis: a detailed 3-D subduction interface obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles, and a planar interface that roughly approximates the 3-D one. These models can be thought of as representing two end-members of the level of knowledge of fault geometry. We define three hypothetical earthquake ruptures of different magnitudes (Mw 7.5, 8.0, 8.5) on each geometry. The resulting tsunami impact is evaluated at the 50-m isobath in front of coastlines of the central and eastern Mediterranean. Our results show that the source geometry imprint is evident on the tsunami waveforms, as recorded at various distances and positions relative to the source. The absolute differences in maximum and minimum wave amplitudes locally exceed one metre, and the relative differences remain systematically above 20 per cent with peaks over 40 per cent. We also observe that tsunami energy directivity and focusing due to bathymetric waveguides take different paths depending on which fault is used. Although the differences increase with increasing earthquake magnitude, there is no simple rule to anticipate the different effects produced by these end-member models of the earthquake source. Our findings suggest that oversimplified source models may hinder our fundamental understanding of the tsunami impact and great care should be adopted when making simplistic assumptions regarding the appropriateness of the planar fault approximation in tsunami studies. We also remark that the geological and geophysical 3-D fault characterization remains a crucial and unavoidable step in tsunami hazard analyses.

Description: The Upper Mustang region of west-central Nepal contains exposures of metamorphosed Tethyan Sedimentary Sequence rocks that have been interpreted to reflect either contact metamorphism related to the nearby Mugu pluton or regional metamorphism associated with the North Himalayan domes. New monazite geochronology results show that the Mugu leucogranite crystallized at c. 21.3 Ma, while the dominant monazite age peaks from the surrounding garnet ± staurolite ± sillimanite schists range between c. 21.7 and 19.4 Ma, generally decreasing in age away from the pluton. Metamorphic temperature estimates based on Ti-in-biotite and garnet–biotite thermometry are highest in the specimens closest to the pluton (648 ± 24°C and 615 ± 25°C, respectively) and lowest in those furthest away (578 ± 24°C and 563 ± 25°C, respectively), while pressure estimates are all within uncertainty of one another, averaging 5.0 ± 0.5 kbar. These results are interpreted to be consistent with contact metamorphism of the rocks in proximity to the Mugu pluton, which was emplaced at c. 18 ± 2 km depth after local movement across the South Tibetan detachment system had ceased. While this new dataset helps to characterize the metamorphic rocks of the Tethyan Sedimentary Sequence and provides new constraints on the thickness of the upper crust, it also emphasizes the importance of careful integration of metamorphic conditions and inferred processes that may affect interpretation of currently proposed Himalayan models.

Description: SUMMARY We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (

Description: The 2013 Lushan Mw 6.7 earthquake is the largest blind thrust event ever occurred on the southern segment of the Longmen Shan fault system. It has attracted extensive attention since it occurred 5 yr later following the 2008 Mw 7.8 Wenchuan destructive earthquake in this region. However, its slip distribution is still on debate due to the complex tectonic settings and limited near-field observations. In this study, we added some near-field GPS data, together with previously published GPS data and levelling data, and take consideration of possible coseismic and post-seismic effects caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, to construct a more accurate horizontal and vertical coseismic surface displacement field associated with the 2013 Lushan earthquake with a better spatial coverage. Then we invert for a refined slip distribution based on a flat-ramp-flat fault suggested by the relocated aftershock sequence and seismic imaging. Our preferred fault plane is striking southwest with 211° and dipping at varying angles of 4°, 35° and 12° separately for such a flat-ramp-flat geometry. The main rupture is roughly characterized by two asperities, including a round disk on the ramp with larger slips and an adjoining oval asperity on the shallow flat with smaller slips. The maximum slip is 1.2 m at 14.3 km focal depth, located at ∼20 km to the northwest of the GCMT epicentre. The released geodetic moment is 1.50 $ imes $ 1019 Nm, equivalent to a Mw 6.7 earthquake. The slips on the fault plane clearly illustrate that this event is dominated by the thrusting and minor striking, which is consistent with its tectonic settings. Furthermore, if we assume the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan event to be the characteristic earthquake on the southern section of the Longmen Shan thrust zone, the accumulated strain should not be fully released by this strong event, and a potential seismic risk still exists in this region.

Description: On 30 September 2017, an Air France Airbus A380-800 suffered a failure of its fourth engine while over Greenland. This failure resulted in the loss of the engine fan hub, fan blades and surrounding structure. An initial search recovered 30 pieces of light debris, but the primary part of interest, a ~220 kg titanium fan hub, was not recovered because it had a different fall trajectory than the light debris, impacted into the ice-sheet's snow surface, and was quickly covered by drifting snow. Here we describe the methods used for the detection of the fan hub and details of the field campaigns. The search area included two crevasse fields of at least 50 snow-covered crevasses 1 to ~30 m wide with similar snow bridge thicknesses. After 21 months and six campaigns, using airborne synthetic aperture radar, ground-penetrating radar, transient electromagnetics and an autonomous vehicle to survey the crevasse fields, the fan hub was found within ~1 m of a crevasse at a depth of ~3.3 to 4 m and was excavated with shovels, chain saws, an electric winch, sleds and a gasoline heater, by workers using fall-arrest systems.

Description: This work is a collection of radar equations for low-frequency radar sounding and radar in general that emphasize the form of the radar equation for different target and source geometries. This is meant as a handbook for scientists and engineers that work with or analyze radar sounder systems and interpret radar sounding echoes. Lookup tables summarize the results and derivations are provided for each equation.

Description: Larval settlement is a key process in the lifecycle of benthic marine organisms; however, little is known on how it could change in reduced seawater pH and carbonate saturation states under future ocean acidification (OA). This is important, as settlement ensures species occur in optimal environments and, for commercially important species such as abalone, reduced settlement could decrease future population success. We investigated how OA could affect settlement success in the New Zealand abalone Haliotis iris by examining: (1) direct effects of seawater at ambient (pHT 8.05) and reduced pHT (7.65) at the time of settlement, (2) indirect effects of settlement substrates (crustose coralline algae, CCA) preconditioned at ambient and reduced pHT for 171 days, and (3) carry-over effects, by examining settlement in larvae reared to competency at ambient and reduced pHT (7.80). We found no effects of seawater pH or CCA incubation on larval settlement success. OA-induced carry-over effects were evident, with lower settlement in larvae reared at reduced pH. Understanding the mechanisms behind these responses is key to fully comprehend the extent to which OA will affect marine organisms and the industries that rely on them.

Description: 2-D full-waveform inversion (FWI) of shallow-seismic wavefields has recently become a novel way to reconstruct S-wave velocity models of the shallow subsurface with high vertical and lateral resolution. In most applications, seismic wave attenuation is ignored or considered as a passive modelling parameter only. In this study, we explore the feasibility and performance of multiparameter viscoelastic 2-D FWI in which seismic velocities and attenuation of P and S waves, respectively, and mass density are inverted simultaneously. Synthetic reconstruction experiments reveal that multiple crosstalks between all viscoelastic material parameters may occur. The reconstruction of S-wave velocity is always robust and of high quality. The parameters P-wave velocity and density exhibit weaker sensitivity and can be reconstructed more reliably by multiparameter viscoelastic FWI. Anomalies in S-wave attenuation can be recovered but with limited resolution. In a field-data application, a small-scale refilled trench is nicely delineated as a low P- and S-wave velocity anomaly. The reconstruction of P-wave velocity is improved by the simultaneous inversion of attenuation. The reconstructed S-wave attenuation reveals higher attenuation in the shallow weathering zone and weaker attenuation below. The variations in the reconstructed P- and S-wave velocity models are consistent with the reflectivity observed in a ground penetrating radar (GPR) profile.

Description: We present changes of the ice margin in Northwest Greenland at the Eastern part of the Nunatarssuaq Ice Cap (NIC) over six decades. The ice margin in this area terminates as a near-vertical ice cliff of between 9 and 33 m thickness. During the years 1954–1957 and in 1965 multi-disciplinary studies were performed. We digitise and orthorectify material, that is often difficult to access, in order to use the historical data as an absolute starting point of our change assessment. We compare the cliff morphology of the mid-1950s and the mid-1960s with various time-steps between 1985 and 2017. The studied ice margin remained remarkably constant with very subtle changes of changing sign: rather slow advance rates are reported from the 1950s and 1960s that accelerated until 1985 and were followed by a general retreat until 2012 and a subsequent advance until 2017. Thickness changes are negative throughout the entire time-period, however, different rates of thinning are shown and there is a positive relationship with air temperature anomalies. Compared to similar elevations on the adjacent Greenland ice sheet, we find significantly weaker thinning rates at the NIC.

Description: Our understanding of ice algal responses to the recent changes in Arctic sea ice is impeded by limited field observations. In the present study, environmental characteristics of the landfast sea-ice zone as well as primary production and macromolecular composition of ice algae and phytoplankton were studied in the Kitikmeot Sea near Cambridge Bay in spring 2017. Averaged total chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration was within the lower range reported previously for the same region, while daily carbon uptake rates of bottom-ice algae were significantly lower in this study than previously reported for the Arctic. Based on various indicators, the region's low nutrient concentrations appear to limit carbon uptake rates and associated accumulation of bottom-ice algal biomass. Furthermore, the lipids-dominant biochemical composition of bottom-ice algae suggests strong nutrient limitation relative to the distinctly different carbohydrates-dominant composition of phytoplankton. Together, the results confirm strong nitrate limitation of the local marine system.

Description: The presence of sets of open fractures is common in most reservoirs, and they exert important controls on the reservoir permeability as fractures act as preferential pathways for fluid flow. Therefore, the correct characterization of fracture sets in fluid-saturated rocks is of great practical importance. In this context, the inversion of fracture characteristics from seismic data is promising since their signatures are sensitive to a wide range of pertinent fracture parameters, such as density, orientation and fluid infill. The most commonly used inversion schemes are based on the classical linear slip theory (LST), in which the effects of the fractures are represented by a real-valued diagonal excess compliance matrix. To account for the effects of wave-induced fluid pressure diffusion (FPD) between fractures and their embedding background, several authors have shown that this matrix should be complex-valued and frequency-dependent. However, these approaches neglect the effects of FPD on the coupling between orthogonal deformations of the rock. With this motivation, we considered a fracture model based on a sequence of alternating poroelastic layers of finite thickness representing the background and the fractures, and derived analytical expressions for the corresponding excess compliance matrix. We evaluated this matrix for a wide range of background parameters to quantify the magnitude of its coefficients not accounted for by the classical LST and to determine how they are affected by FPD. We estimated the relative errors in the computation of anisotropic seismic velocity and attenuation associated with the LST approach. Our analysis showed that, in some cases, considering the simplified excess compliance matrix may lead to an incorrect representation of the anisotropic response of the probed fractured rock.

Description: SUMMARY Seismic full waveform inversion (FWI) is a state-of-the-art technique for estimating subsurface physical models from recorded seismic waveform, but its application requires care because of high non-linearity and non-uniqueness. The final outcome of global convergence from conventional FWI using local gradient information relies on an informative starting model. Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is able to remove such dependence, by a direct extensive search of the model space. We use a Bayesian trans-dimensional MCMC seismic FWI method with a parsimonious dipping layer parametrization, to invert for subsurface velocity models from pre-stack seismic shot gathers that contain mainly reflections. For the synthetic study, we use a simple four-layer model and a modified Marmousi model. A recently collected multichannel off-shore seismic reflection data set, from the Lord Howe Rise (LHR) in the east of Australia, is used for the field data test. The trans-dimensional FWI method is able to provide model ensembles for describing posterior distribution, when the dipping-layer model assumption satisfies the observed data. The model assumption requires narrow models, thus only near-offset data to be used. We use model stitching with lateral and depth constraints to create larger 2-D models from many adjacent overlapping submodel inversions. The inverted 2-D velocity model from the Bayesian inference can then be used as a starting model for the gradient-based FWI, from which we are able to obtain high-resolution subsurface velocity models, as demonstrated using the synthetic data. However, lacking far-offset data limits the constraints for the low-wavenumber part of the velocity model, making the inversion highly non-unique. We found it challenging to apply the dipping-layer based Bayesian FWI to the field data. The approximations in the source wavelet and forward modelling physics increase the multimodality of the posterior distribution; the sampled velocity models clearly show the trade-off between interface depth and velocity. Numerical examples using the synthetic and field data indicate that trans-dimensional FWI has the potential for inverting earth models from reflection waveform. However, a sparse model parametrization and far offset constraints are required, especially for field application.

Description: SUMMARY Parker–Oldenburg's method is perhaps the most commonly used technique to estimate the depth of density interface from gravity data. To account for large density variations reported, for instance, at the Moho interface, between the ocean seawater density and marine sediments, or between sediments and the underlying bedrock, some authors extended this method for variable density models. Parker–Oldenburg's method is suitable for local studies, given that a functional relationship between gravity data and interface geometry is derived for Earth's planar approximation. The application of this method in (large-scale) regional, continental or global studies is, however, practically restricted by errors due to disregarding Earth's sphericity. Parker–Oldenburg's method was, therefore, reformulated also for Earth's spherical approximation, but assuming only a uniform density. The importance of taking into consideration density heterogeneities at the interface becomes even more relevant in the context of (large-scale) regional or global studies. To address this issue, we generalize Parker–Oldenburg's method (defined for a spherical coordinate system) for the depth of heterogeneous density interface. Furthermore, we extend our definitions for gravity gradient data of which use in geoscience applications increased considerably, especially after launching the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) gravity-gradiometry satellite mission. For completeness, we also provide expressions for potential. The study provides the most complete review of Parker–Oldenburg's method in planar and spherical cases defined for potential, gravity and gravity gradient, while incorporating either uniform or heterogeneous density model at the interface. To improve a numerical efficiency of gravimetric forward modelling and inversion, described in terms of spherical harmonics of Earth's gravity field and interface geometry, we use the fast Fourier transform technique for spherical harmonic analysis and synthesis. The (newly derived) functional models are tested numerically. Our results over a (large-scale) regional study area confirm that the consideration of a global integration and Earth's sphericty improves results of a gravimetric forward modelling and inversion.

Description: The growing seismic networks and the increasing number of permanent seismic stations can help in improving the physical basis of seismic hazard assessment. For this purpose, the definition of reference site conditions is of great significance. If a reliable estimate of the reference ground motion is known, its modification at any given site can be modelled with respect to that reference site. Since the choice of a well-characterized reference site is not straightforward, mainly due to the high variability in the shallow layers, such choices prove to be affected by large uncertainties. While proxy parameters like the average S-wave velocity over the uppermost 30 m (vS30) might help in characterizing reference site conditions, such parameters are neither available at all sites nor do they allow concluding that the site is not affected by amplification and attenuation effects. In this study, we identify prospective reference sites across Europe in a harmonized and fully data-driven way. All analysis is based on freely available geological and geophysical data and no on-site measurements or site-specific proxies are required. The study accounts for both the influence of amplification and attenuation in a large frequency range. To address the key conceptual issues, we verify our classification based on machine learning techniques in which the influence of the individual site characterization parameters is investigated. Our study indicates that around 250 sites in Europe over more than 2000 investigated are not affected by local site effects and can de facto be considered as reference sites based on the criteria applied.

Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.

Description: The Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) balloon experiment was designed to detect radio signals initiated by high-energy neutrinos and cosmic ray (CR) air showers. These signals are typically discriminated by the polarization and phase inversions of the radio signal. The reflected signal from CRs suffer phase inversion compared to a direct ‘tau neutrino’ event. In this paper, we study subsurface reflection, which can occur without phase inversion, in the context of the two anomalous up-going events reported by ANITA. It is found that subsurface layers and firn density inversions may plausibly account for the events, while ice fabric layers and wind ablation crusts could also play a role. This hypothesis can be tested with radar surveying of the Antarctic region in the vicinity of the anomalous ANITA events. Future experiments should not use phase inversion as a sole criterion to discriminate between down-going and up-going events, unless the subsurface reflection properties are well understood.

Description: The S-receiver function (SRF) technique is an effective tool to study seismic discontinuities in the upper mantle such as the mid-lithospheric discontinuity (MLD) and the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB). This technique uses deconvolution and aligns traces along the maximum of the deconvolved SV signal. Both of these steps lead to acausal signals, which may cause interference with real signals from below the Moho. Here we go back to the origin of the S-receiver function method and process S-to-P converted waves using S-onset times as the reference time and waveform summation without any filter like deconvolution or bandpass. We apply this ‘causal’ SRF (C-SRF) method to data of the USArray and obtain partially different results in comparison with previous studies using the traditional acausal SRF method. The new method does not confirm the existence of an MLD beneath large regions of the cratonic US. The shallow LAB in the western US is, however, confirmed with the new method. The elimination of the MLD signal below much of the cratonic US reveals lower amplitude but highly significant phases that previously had been overwhelmed by the apparent MLD signals. Along the northern part of the area with data coverage we see relics of Archean or younger north-west directed low-angle subduction below the entire Superior Craton. In the cratonic part of the US we see indications of the cratonic LAB near 200 km depth. In the Gulf Coast of the southern US we image relics of southeast directed shallow subduction, likely of mid-Paleozoic age.

Description: Ambient noise correlation has been used extensively to retrieve traveltimes of surface waves. However, studies of retrieving amplitude information and attenuation from ambient noise are limited. In this study, we develop methods and strategies to extract Rayleigh wave amplitude and attenuation from ambient noise correlation, based on theoretical derivation, numerical simulation, and practical considerations of real seismic data. The synthetic data included a numerical simulation of a highly anisotropic noise source and Earth-like temporally varying strength. Results from synthetic data validate that amplitudes and attenuations can indeed be extracted from noise correlations for a linear array. A temporal flattening procedure is effective in speeding up convergence while preserving relative amplitudes. The traditional one-bit normalization and other types of temporal normalization that are applied to each individual station separately are problematic in recovering attenuation and should be avoided. In this study, we propose an ‘asynchronous’ temporal flattening procedure for real data that does not require all stations to have data at the same time. Furthermore, we present the detailed procedure for amplitude retrieval from ambient noise. Tests on real data suggest attenuations extracted from our noise-based methods are comparable with those from earthquakes. Our study shows an exciting promise of retrieving amplitude and attenuation information from ambient noise correlations and suggests practical considerations for applications to real data.

Description: The themed article set (TS) “Science in support of a nonlinear non-equilibrium world” reflects the challenge presented by the increasing potential for complex non-linear behaviour in marine ecosystems, many of which are undergoing dramatic changes due to anthropogenic perturbations. Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, yet management strategies are often guided by a linear, stable perspective that excludes non-linearities and the possibility for evolution and adaptation. Rapidly increasing amounts of observational data, the interdisciplinary development of powerful mathematical approaches from complexity theory, and the evolving complex adaptive systems approach that includes human behaviour promise to substantially advance the development of management strategies. For these reasons, the ICES Journal of Marine Science solicited contributions to a TS that would take up these issues. In this introduction, I focus on three important areas—causality, prediction, and emergence—where a “non-linear” perspective can advance our understanding and better support sustainable management of ecosystems. I briefly present the nine contributions that are included in the themed set and suggest some ways forward. We hope that these articles serve to convince managers and marine scientists of the benefits of incorporating approaches and results from research on non-linear dynamics.

Description: A 1.3-m-long sediment core from the Penzi-la pass, Zanskar Valley, provides a record of hydroclimatic conditions and abrupt climate changes over short time scales since the mid-Holocene. These climatic changes of centennial time scale are crucial to understanding the hydroclimatic variability in northwestern (NW) Himalaya. Relatively higher δ13C values complemented by total organic carbon, loss on ignition, grain size parameters, and lower Rubidium/Strontium ratios during the Late Northgrippian imply that the area had a dry climate during the period from ~6200–4500 cal yr BP. Subsequently, a relatively stable hydroclimatic environment was experienced between ~4500 and 3400 cal yr BP. After ~3400 cal yr BP the multiproxy data show gradual strengthening of hydroclimatic conditions, however, this trend is interrupted by high-amplitude abrupt reversals (dry events) with a stepwise decreasing intensity at ~3300, 2600, 1700, and 400 cal yr BP. The two most important climatic events of the last millennia (i.e., Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age) were also recorded from the sedimentary archive. Overall, our data show a progressive increase in the moisture availability in the Zanskar Valley and are in agreement with the late Holocene climatic trends of central and western Himalaya.

Description: We present a long-term seasonal tree ring cellulose oxygen isotope (δ18Oc) time series created by analyzing four segments (S1, S2, S3, and S4) per year during the period of 1951–2009 from southeastern Tibetan Plateau. This intraseasonal δ18Oc reveals the onset and mature phase of the summer monsoon precipitation in this region. Analysis indicates that the δ18Oc of S1 has the strongest correlation with precipitation during the regional monsoon onset (29–33 pentads, May 21–June 10, r = −0.69), and the δ18Oc values for S2, S3, and S4 correlate strongly with June, July, and August precipitation, respectively. Combined δ18Oc of S2, S3, and S4 shows the most robust correlation (r = −0.82) with the mature-phase monsoon precipitation (June-July-August, JJA), passing rigorous statistical tests for calibration and verification in dendroclimatology. These results demonstrate the feasibility in using long-term intraseasonal δ18Oc to reconstruct the Asian summer monsoon's intraseasonal variations.

Description: The island of Pantelleria, located in the Sicily Channel Rift Zone (Italy), has been the site of violent peralkaline silicic magmatism alternating with minor effusive to low-intensity Strombolian eruptions of basaltic composition. The basaltic rock suites exposed on the island were sampled to investigate the plumbing system dynamics through the study of chemical stratigraphy and temporal records of olivine crystals. Our petrographic and geochemical observations, together with the compositional variability of olivine, suggest different evolutionary histories for basaltic magmas erupted over two major periods divided by the ∼45 ka Green Tuff (GT) eruption. Core-to-rim compositional traverses across olivine crystals document different types of zoning. We recognized olivine zones affected by Fo oscillations at very fine scales in the inner cores, rims and/or in intermediate portions of crystals and used them to reconstruct the residence and passage of crystals through different magmatic environments, with P–T–ƒO2 and compositional characteristics constrained by thermodynamic modeling. The sequence of magmatic environments evidenced by olivine zoning indicate that the pre-GT volcanic period was dominated by injection at shallow crustal levels (∼300–200 MPa) of primitive melts, initially moving from a deep storage zone at the crust-mantle boundary. Supply of this magma significantly decreased after the GT eruption, while the dynamics of magma transfer within the upper portion of the plumbing system were greatly enhanced. The diffusive relaxation of olivine zoning provided the timing of storage and migration of a crystal through different environments. For magmas feeding the ancient (〉45 ka) basaltic activity we retrieved transfer histories that are much longer (up to ∼3 years) if compared with those calculated for the post-GT basalts (1–9 months). The compositional and temporal dataset presented in this study supports the idea that the GT eruption and the subsequent collapse of the volcanic edifice could have caused major changes to the internal structural setting of Pantelleria, creating more favorable conditions for the migration of magmas in the upper portions of the plumbing system.

Description: We report on a diverse and abundant mammal fauna from Chongphadae Cave—Hwangju region in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The cave sediments include many mammal fossils and consist of fluvial, cave clay, and calcareous deposits. During our field excavation 33 species were encountered: 9 species of rodents, 1 species of lagomorph, 1 species of insectivore, 8 species of carnivores, 4 species of perissodactyls, 9 species of artiodactyls, and 1 species of primates. Of these, perissodactyls and artiodactyls dominate the fauna in terms of diversity. The cave sediments include 15 layers. Radiocarbon dating showed that Layers 12 and 13 were formed from 34,770 to 27,800 cal yr BP and from 24,980 to 21,340 cal yr BP, respectively. Additional identification of various palyno-botanical remains including 25 families and genera of trees, 19 families and genera of grasses and herbs, and 10 families and genera of ferns provides a wealth of information on the past ecology of the Chongphadae Cave Site area. During the Late Pleistocene, the Chongphadae area was surrounded by luxuriant forests associated with hills and grasslands in a cool and humid temperate climatic environment.