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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: In situ observations of cloud properties made by airborne probes play a critical role in ice cloud research through their role in process studies, parameterization development, and evaluation of simulations and remote sensing retrievals. To determine how cloud properties vary with environmental conditions, in situ data collected during different field projects processed by different groups must be used. However, because of the diverse algorithms and codes that are used to process measurements, it can be challenging to compare the results. Therefore it is vital to understand both the limitations of specific probes and uncertainties introduced by processing algorithms. Since there is currently no universally accepted framework regarding how in situ measurements should be processed, there is a need for a general reference that describes the most commonly applied algorithms along with their strengths and weaknesses. Methods used to process data from bulk water probes, single-particle light-scattering spectrometers and cloud-imaging probes are reviewed herein, with emphasis on measurements of the ice phase. Particular attention is paid to how uncertainties, caveats, and assumptions in processing algorithms affect derived products since there is currently no consensus on the optimal way of analyzing data. Recommendations for improving the analysis and interpretation of in situ data include the following: establishment of a common reference library of individual processing algorithms, better documentation of assumptions used in these algorithms, development and maintenance of sustainable community software for processing in situ observations, and more studies that compare different algorithms with the same benchmark datasets.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: It has been known that aerosol particles act as nuclei for ice formation for over a century and a half (see Dufour). Initial attempts to understand the nature of these ice nucleating particles were optical and electron microscope inspection of inclusions at the center of a crystal (see Isono; Kumai). Only within the last few decades has instrumentation to extract ice crystals from clouds and analyze the residual material after sublimation of condensed-phase water been available (see Cziczo and Froyd). Techniques to ascertain the ice nucleating potential of atmospheric aerosols have only been in place for a similar amount of time (see DeMott et al.). In this chapter the history of measurements of ice nucleating particles, both in the field and complementary studies in the laboratory, are reviewed. Remaining uncertainties and artifacts associated with measurements are described and suggestions for future areas of improvement are made.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 6
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: The life cycle of individual (initially line shaped) contrails behind aircraft and of contrail cirrus (aged contrails mixed with other ice clouds) is described. The full contrail life cycle is covered, from ice formation for given water, heat, and particulate emissions; to changes in the jet, wake, and dispersion phases; through final sublimation or sedimentation. Contrail properties are deduced from various in situ, remote sensing, and model studies. Aerodynamically induced contrails and distrails are explained briefly. Contrails form both in clear air and inside cirrus. Young contrails consume most of the ambient ice supersaturation. Optical properties of contrails are age and humidity dependent. Contrail occurrence and radiative forcing depends on the ambient Earth–atmosphere conditions. Contrail cirrus seems to be optically thicker than assessed previously and may not only increase cirrus coverage but also thicken existing cirrus. Some observational constraints for contrail cirrus occurrence and radiative forcing are derived. Key parameters controlling contrail properties—besides aircraft and fuel properties, ambient pressure, temperature, and humidity—are the number of ice particles per flight distance surviving the wake vortex phase, the contrail depth, and particle sedimentation, wind shear, turbulence, and vertical motions controlling contrail dispersion. The climate impact of contrails depends among other things on the ratio of shortwave to longwave radiative forcing (RF) and on the efficacy with which contrail RF contributes to surface warming. Several open issues are identified, including renucleation from residuals of sublimated contrail ice particles.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 7
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: Ice-phase precipitation occurs at Earth’s surface and may include various types of pristine crystals, rimed crystals, freezing droplets, secondary crystals, aggregates, graupel, hail, or combinations of any of these. Formation of ice-phase precipitation is directly related to environmental and cloud meteorological parameters that include available moisture, temperature, and three-dimensional wind speed and turbulence, as well as processes related to nucleation, cooling rate, and microphysics. Cloud microphysical parameters in the numerical models are resolved based on various processes such as nucleation, mixing, collision and coalescence, accretion, riming, secondary ice particle generation, turbulence, and cooling processes. These processes are usually parameterized based on assumed particle size distributions and ice crystal microphysical parameters such as mass, size, and number and mass density. Microphysical algorithms in the numerical models are developed based on their need for applications. Observations of ice-phase precipitation are performed using in situ and remote sensing platforms, including radars and satellite-based systems. Because of the low density of snow particles with small ice water content, their measurements and predictions at the surface can include large uncertainties. Wind and turbulence affecting collection efficiency of the sensors, calibration issues, and sensitivity of ground-based in situ observations of snow are important challenges to assessing the snow precipitation. This chapter’s goals are to provide an overview for accurately measuring and predicting ice-phase precipitation. The processes within and below cloud that affect falling snow, as well as the known sources of error that affect understanding and prediction of these processes, are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 8
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: Ice fog is a natural, outdoor cloud laboratory that provides an excellent opportunity to study ice microphysical processes. Ice crystals in fog are formed through similar pathways as those in elevated clouds; that is, cloud condensation or ice nuclei are activated in an atmosphere supersaturated with respect to liquid water or ice. The primary differences between surface and elevated ice clouds are related to the sources of water vapor, the cooling mechanisms and dynamical processes leading to supersaturation, and the microphysical characteristics of the nuclei that affect ice fog crystal physical properties. As with any fog, its presence can be a hazard for ground or airborne traffic because of poor visibility and icing. In addition, ice fog plays a role in climate change by modulating the heat and moisture budgets. Ice fog wintertime occurrence in many parts of the world can have a significant impact on the environment. Global climate models need to accurately account for the temporal and spatial microphysical and optical properties of ice fog, as do weather forecast models. The primary handicap is the lack of adequate information on nucleation processes and microphysical algorithms that accurately represent glaciation of supercooled water fog. This chapter summarizes the current understanding of ice fog formation and evolution; discusses operating principles, limitations, and uncertainties associated with the instruments used to measure ice fog microphysical properties; describes the prediction of ice fog by the numerical forecast models and physical parameterizations used in climate models; identifies the outstanding questions to be resolved; and lists recommended actions to address and solve these questions.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 9
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: State-of-the-art remote sensing techniques applicable to the investigation of ice formation and evolution are described. Ground-based and spaceborne measurements with lidar, radar, and radiometric techniques are discussed together with a global view on past and ongoing remote sensing measurement campaigns concerned with the study of ice formation and evolution. This chapter has the intention of a literature study and should illustrate the major efforts that are currently taken in the field of remote sensing of atmospheric ice. Since other chapters of this monograph mainly focus on aircraft in situ measurements, special emphasis is put on active remote sensing instruments and synergies between aircraft in situ measurements and passive remote sensing methods. The chapter concentrates on homogeneous and heterogeneous ice formation in the troposphere because this is a major topic of this monograph. Furthermore, methods that deliver direct, process-level information about ice formation are elaborated with a special emphasis on active remote sensing methods. Passive remote sensing methods are also dealt with but only in the context of synergy with aircraft in situ measurements.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 10
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: Ice particle formation in tropospheric clouds significantly changes cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Ice nucleation in the troposphere via homogeneous freezing occurs at temperatures lower than −38°C and relative humidity with respect to ice above 140%. In the absence of these conditions, ice formation can proceed via heterogeneous nucleation aided by aerosol particles known as ice nucleating particles (INPs). In this chapter, new developments in identifying the heterogeneous freezing mechanisms, atmospheric relevance, uncertainties, and unknowns about INPs are described. The change in conventional wisdom regarding the requirements of INPs as new studies discover physical and chemical properties of these particles is explained. INP sources and known reasons for their ice nucleating properties are presented. The need for more studies to systematically identify particle properties that facilitate ice nucleation is highlighted. The atmospheric relevance of long-range transport, aerosol aging, and coating studies (in the laboratory) of INPs are also presented. Possible mechanisms for processes that change the ice nucleating potential of INPs and the corresponding challenges in understanding and applying these in models are discussed. How primary ice nucleation affects total ice crystal number concentrations in clouds and the discrepancy between INP concentrations and ice crystal number concentrations are presented. Finally, limitations of parameterizing INPs and of models in representing known and unknown processes related to heterogeneous ice nucleation processes are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 11
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: The goal of this chapter is to synthesize information about what is now known about one of the three main types of clouds, cirrus, and to identify areas where more knowledge is needed. Cirrus clouds, composed of ice particles, form in the upper troposphere, where temperatures are generally below −30°C. Satellite observations show that the maximum-occurrence frequency of cirrus is near the tropics, with a large latitudinal movement seasonally. In situ measurements obtained over a wide range of cirrus types, formation mechanisms, temperatures, and geographical locations indicate that the ice water content and particle size generally decrease with decreasing temperature, whereas the ice particle concentration is nearly constant or increases slightly with decreasing temperature. High ice concentrations, sometimes observed in strong updrafts, result from homogeneous nucleation. The satellite-based and in situ measurements indicate that cirrus ice crystals typically differ from the simple, idealized geometry for smooth hexagonal shapes, indicating complexity and/or surface roughness. Their shapes significantly impact cirrus radiative properties and feedbacks to climate. Cirrus clouds, one of the most uncertain components of general circulation models (GCM), pose one of the greatest challenges in predicting the rate and geographical pattern of climate change. Improved measurements of the properties and size distributions and surface structure of small ice crystals (about 20 μm) and identifying the dominant ice nucleation process (heterogeneous versus homogeneous ice nucleation) under different cloud dynamical forcings will lead to a better representation of their properties in GCM and in modeling their current and future effects on climate.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Digitale ISSN: 1943-3646
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 12
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-13
    Beschreibung: The goal of this study is to document differences in the convective structure and motion of long-track, severe-wind-producing MCSs from short-track severe-wind-producing MCSs in relation to the mean wind. An ancillary goal is to determine if these differences are large enough that some criterion for MCS motion relative to the mean wind could be used in future definitions of “derechos.” Results confirm past investigations that well-organized MCSs, including those that produce derechos, tend to move faster than the mean wind, exhibiting a significantly larger degree of propagation (component of MCS motion in addition to the component contributed by the mean flow). Furthermore, well-organized systems that produce shorter-track swaths of damaging winds likewise tend to move faster than the mean wind with a significant propagation component along the mean wind. Therefore, propagation in the direction of the mean wind is not necessarily a characteristic that can be used to distinguish derechos from nonderechos. However, there is some indication that long-track damaging wind events that occur without large-scale or persistent bow echoes and mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) require a strong propagation component along the mean wind direction to become long lived. Overall, however, there does not appear to be enough separation in the motion characteristics among the MCS types to warrant the inclusion of a mean-wind criterion into the definition of a derecho at this time.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 13
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: This study evaluates the sensitivity of wind turbine hub-height wind speed forecasts to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, grid length, and initial condition selection in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model over complex terrain. Eight PBL schemes available for the WRF-ARW dynamical core were tested with initial conditions sources from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) to produce short-term wind speed forecasts. The largest improvements in forecast accuracy primarily depended on the grid length or PBL scheme choice, although the most important factor varied by location, season, time of day, and bias-correction application. Aggregated over all locations, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2) PBL scheme provided the best forecast accuracy, particularly for the 12-km grid length. Other PBL schemes and grid lengths, however, did perform better than the ACM2 scheme for individual seasons or locations.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 14
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: The effect of Tropical Cyclone Oli (2010) on the ocean is investigated using a variety of measurements. In situ temperature measurements on the cyclone track are available via the Centre de Recherches Insulaires et Observatoire de l’Environnement (CRIOBE) array of probes. This reflects an extreme fluctuation of the temperature some 18 h after the cyclone, lasting only 12 h and exceeding 3°C in amplitude. This study interprets this extreme fluctuation in terms of enhanced mixing associated with the time-dependent inertial currents due to the cyclonic winds. The authors show, using Lagrangian simulations, that this rapid event is compatible with the severe length-scale shortening observed in Lagrangian simulations.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0485
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 15
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-20
    Beschreibung: Surface-layer-resolving large-eddy simulations (LESs) of free-convective to near-neutral boundary layers are used to study Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) functions. The LES dataset, previously used for the analysis of MOST relationships for structure parameters, is extended for the mean vertical gradients and standard deviations of potential temperature, specific humidity, and wind. Also, local-free-convection (LFC) similarity is studied. The LES data suggest that the MOST functions for mean gradients are universal and unique. The data for the mean gradient of the horizontal wind display significant scatter, while the gradients of temperature and humidity vary considerably less. The LES results suggest that this scatter is mostly related to a transition from MOST to LFC scaling when approaching free-convective conditions and that it is associated with a change of the slope of the similarity functions toward the expected value from LFC scaling. Overall, the data show slightly, but consistent, steeper slopes of the similarity functions than suggested in literature. The MOST functions for standard deviations appear to be unique and universal when the entrainment from the free atmosphere into the boundary layer is sufficiently small. If entrainment becomes significant, however, we find that the standard deviation of humidity no longer follows MOST. Under free-convective conditions, the similarity functions should reduce to universal constants (LFC scaling). This is supported by the LES data, showing only little scatter, but displaying a systematic height dependence of these constants. Like for MOST, the LFC similarity constant for the standard deviation of specific humidity becomes nonuniversal when the entrainment of dry air reaches significant levels.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 16
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 17
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-20
    Beschreibung: Drought is a typical disaster in the main soybean production area of northeast China. The spatiotemporal variations of drought related to soybean production based on a crop water deficit index (CWDI) and sensitivity to meteorological variables were investigated in northeast China using daily meteorological data from 87 weather stations from 1981 to 2010. Statistical analysis revealed that precipitation could not meet the water demands of soybeans during the seedling–branching, filling, and maturing stages, and excessive drought occurred more often in northeast China. The Mann–Kendall test indicated that the soybean CWDI significantly increased during the filling stage. Kriging spatial analysis showed that the most drought-prone area was located in the west of northeast China. Explanations for the spatiotemporal variations of the drought for soybean production were explored in terms of meteorological variables. Statistical analysis showed that the crop evapotranspiration, air temperature, wind speed, and number of sunshine hours were significantly higher and the precipitation and relative humidity were significantly lower in the drought-prone area than in the dry area less prone to droughts. An explored method of sensitive analysis quantitatively revealed that precipitation and humidity negatively affected the CWDI, whereas temperature, wind speed, and number of sunshine hours positively affected the CWDI. The CWDI was most sensitive to precipitation. These results not only provide valuable information for soybean planning and management but also produce important background and physical evidence for the influence of climate on the drought related to soybean production in northeast China.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 18
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-22
    Beschreibung: Knowledge of cloud-base height (CBH) is important to describe cloud radiative feedbacks in numerical models and is of practical relevance to the aviation community. Whereas satellite remote sensing with passive radiometers traditionally has provided a ready means for estimating cloud-top height (CTH) and cloud water path (CWP), assignment of CBH requires heavy assumptions on the distribution of CWP within the cloud profile. An attempt to retrieve CBH has been included as part of the VIIRS environmental data records, produced operationally as part of the Suomi–National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and the forthcoming Joint Polar Satellite System. Through formal validation studies tied to the program, it was found that the operational CBH algorithm failed to meet performance specifications in many cases. This paper presents a new methodology for retrieving CBH of the uppermost cloud layer, developed through statistical analyses relating cloud geometric thickness (CGT) to CTH and CWP. The semiempirical approach, which relates these parameters via piecewise fitting, enlists A-Train satellite data [CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR), CALIPSO/CALIOP, and Aqua MODIS]. CBH is provided as the residual difference between CTH and CGT. By eliminating cloud type–dependent assumptions on CWP distribution, artifacts common to the operational algorithm (which contribute to high errors) are reduced. Special accommodations are made for handling optically thin cirrus and deep convection. An application to SNPP VIIRS is demonstrated, and the results are compared against global CloudSat observations. From the VIIRS–CloudSat daytime matchups (September–October 2013 and January–May 2015), the new algorithm outperforms the operational SNPP VIIRS algorithm, particularly when the retrieved CTH is accurate. Best performance is expected for single-layer liquid-phase clouds.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 19
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0493
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 20
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 21
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Many data-merging studies of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite involve the integration of high-resolution Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) signals (~2 km) with low-resolution Precipitation Radar (PR) footprint (~5 km) to obtain comprehensive information from observations. Based on the merged dataset, “warm rain” is generally identified as having averaging 10.8-μm brightness temperatures (TB10.8) exceeding 273 K and the existence of surface rainfall. However, this integration may lead to the misidentification of warm rain because the beam-filling problem (nonuniform TB10.8 in PR pixels) is not fully considered through the method using high-resolution TB10.8 to match low-resolution rainfall. To assess the bias that is associated with identifying warm rain, a new dataset that includes all VIRS signals within the PR resolution is established, and the characteristics of this warm rain in the summers of 1998–2012 are analyzed. The results show that clear-sky pixels and “cold” pixels probably exist in some apparent warm-rain cases (60.5% and 11.2% of the time, respectively). According to this finding, warm-rain pixels are divided into pixels with and without clear sky. Statistical analysis shows that the existence of clear-sky pixels has a huge influence on the characteristics of the warm-rain pixels. The implications of this study are that many of the warm-rain cases are in fact not warm rain. When studying warm rain, the situation whereby the edges of pixels are clear sky should be fully considered. Also, when computing the weighted average brightness temperature and other characteristics of warm-rain pixels, parts that are clear-sky or cold pixels should be expelled to mitigate beam-filling problems.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 22
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-16
    Beschreibung: Accurate evaluations of incoming longwave radiation (Lin) parameterization have practical implications for glacier and river runoff changes in high-mountain regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To identify potential means of accurately predicting spatiotemporal variations in Lin, 13 clear-sky parameterizations combined with 10 cloud corrections for all-sky atmospheric emissivity were evaluated at five sites in high-mountain regions of the TP through temporal and spatial parameter transfer tests. Most locally calibrated parameterizations for clear-sky and all-sky conditions performed well when applied to the calibration site. The best parameterization at five sites is Dilley and O’Brien’s A model combined with Sicart et al.’s A for cloud-correction-incorporated relative humidity. The performance of parameter transferability in time is better than that in space for the same all-sky parameterizations. The performance of parameter transferability in space presents spatial discrepancies. In addition, all all-sky parameterizations show a decrease in performance with increasing altitude regardless of whether the parameters of all-sky parameterizations were recalibrated by local conditions or transferred from other study sites. This may be attributable to the difference between screen-level air temperature and the effective atmospheric boundary layer temperature and to different cloud-base heights. Nevertheless, such worse performance at higher altitudes is likely to change because of terrain, underlying surfaces, and wind systems, among other factors. The study also describes possible spatial characteristics of Lin and its driving factors by reviewing the few studies about Lin for the mountain regions of the TP.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 23
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-21
    Beschreibung: Intrinsic predictability is defined as the uncertainty in a forecast due to small errors in the initial conditions. In fact, not only the amplitude but also the structure of these initial errors plays a key role in the evolution of the forecast. Several methodologies have been developed to create an ensemble of forecasts from a feasible set of initial conditions, such as bred vectors or singular vectors. However, these methodologies consider only the fastest growth direction globally, which is represented by the Lyapunov vector. In this paper, the simple Lorenz 63 model is used to compare bred vectors, random perturbations, and normal modes against analogs. The concept of analogs is based on the ergodicity theory to select compatible states for a given initial condition. These analogs have a complex structure in the phase space of the Lorenz attractor that is compatible with the properties of the nonlinear chaotic system. It is shown that the initial averaged growth rate of errors of the analogs is similar to the one obtained with bred vectors or normal modes (fastest growth), but they do not share other properties or statistics, such as the spread of these growth rates. An in-depth study of different properties of the analogs and the previous existing perturbation methodologies is carried out to shed light on the consequences of forecasting the choice of the perturbations.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0493
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 24
  • 25
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-20
    Beschreibung: Traditional methods for measuring whitecap coverage using digital video systems mounted to measure a large footprint can miss features that do not produce a high enough contrast to the background. Here, a method for accurately measuring the fractional coverage, intensity, and decay time of whitecaps using above-water radiometry is presented. The methodology was developed using data collected in the Southern Ocean under a wide range of wind and wave conditions. Whitecap quantities were obtained by employing a magnitude threshold based on the interquartile range of the radiance or reflectance signal from a single channel. Breaking intensity and decay time were produced from the integration of and the exponential fit to radiance or reflectance over the lifetime of the whitecap. When using the lowest magnitude threshold possible, radiometric fractional whitecap coverage retrievals were consistently higher than fractional coverage from high-resolution digital images, perhaps because the radiometer captures more of the decaying bubble plume area that is difficult to detect with photography. Radiometrically obtained whitecap measurements are presented in the context of concurrently measured meteorological (e.g., wind speed) and oceanographic (e.g., wave) data. The optimal fit of the radiometrically estimated whitecap coverage to the instantaneous wind speed, determined using robust linear least squares, showed a near-cubic dependence. Increasing the magnitude threshold for whitecap detection from 2 to 4 times the interquartile range produced a wind speed–whitecap relationship most comparable to the concurrently collected fractional coverage from digital imagery and previously published wind speed–whitecap parameterizations.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 26
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-03
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 27
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 28
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Standard methods of tidal inference should be revised to account for a known resonance that occurs mostly within the K1 tidal group in the diurnal band. The resonance arises from a free rotational mode of Earth caused by the fluid core. In a set of 110 bottom-pressure tide stations, the amplitude of the P1 tidal constituent is shown to be suppressed relative to K1, which is in good agreement with the resonance theory. Standard formulas for the K1 nodal modulation remain essentially unaffected. Two examples are given of applications of the refined inference methodology: one with monthly tide gauge data and one with satellite altimetry. For some altimeter-constrained tide models, an inferred P1 constituent is found to be more accurate than a directly determined one.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0426
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 29
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-20
    Beschreibung: Analysis of drop size distributions (DSD) measured by collocated Meteorological Particle Spectrometer (MPS) and a third-generation, low-profile, 2D-video disdrometer (2DVD) are presented. Two events from two different regions (Greeley, Colorado, and Huntsville, Alabama) are analyzed. While the MPS, with its 50-μm resolution, enabled measurements of small drops, typically for drop diameters below about 1.1 mm, the 2DVD provided accurate measurements for drop diameters above 0.7 mm. Drop concentrations in the 0.7–1.1-mm overlap region were found to be in excellent agreement between the two instruments. Examination of the combined spectra clearly reveals a drizzle mode and a precipitation mode. The combined spectra were analyzed in terms of the DSD parameters, namely, the normalized intercept parameter NW, the mass-weighted mean diameter Dm, and the standard deviation of mass spectrum σM. The inclusion of small drops significantly affected the NW and the ratio σM/Dm toward higher values relative to using the 2DVD-based spectra alone. For each of the two events, polarimetric radar data were used to characterize the variation of radar-measured reflectivity Zh and differential reflectivity Zdr with Dm from the combined spectra. In the Greeley event, this variation at S band was well captured for small values of Dm (
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  • 30
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Laser disdrometers measure the particle size distribution (PSD) of hydrometeors through a small cross-sectional (tens of square centimeters) surface. Such a limited area induces a sampling effect in the estimates of the PSD, which translates to error in the reflectivity–rain-rate (Z–R) relationship used for ground radar estimates of rainfall, estimates of kinetic energy of precipitation, and any other hydrometeorological application relying on particle size information. Here, the results of a dedicated experiment to estimate the extent of the effect of limited area sampling of rainfall are presented. Using 14 Parsivel, version 1 (Parsivel-1), disdrometers placed within 6 m2, it was found that the combined area of at least seven disdrometers is required for the estimates to start converging to a stable value. The results can be used to quantify the degree of over-/underestimation of precipitation parameters for a single instrument due to the limited collecting area effect. It has been found that a single disdrometer may underestimate instantaneous rain rate by 70%.
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  • 31
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-23
    Beschreibung: The knowledge of atmospheric refractive index structure constant () profiles is fundamental to determine the intensity of turbulence, and hence the impact of the scintillation impairment on the signals propagating in the troposphere. However, their relation with atmospheric variables is not straightforward, and profiles based on statistical considerations are normally employed. This can be a shortcoming when performing simulations for which scintillation disturbances need to be consistent with the assumed atmospheric conditions. To overcome this limitation, this work describes a procedure to obtain an estimate of the refractive index structure constant profile of clear-air turbulence under given atmospheric conditions. The procedure is based on the application of the vertical gradient approach to high-resolution radiosonde data. Since turbulence is known to be confined to vertically thin layers, a preliminary identification of turbulent layers is required. This is accomplished by analyzing the profiles of the Richardson number. The value of the outer scale length is estimated using the Thorpe length calculated from the potential temperature profile. The procedure is applied to high-resolution radiosonde data that have been acquired from the Stratosphere–Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Center, and the obtained results are consistent with measured profiles previously published in the literature.
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  • 32
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-17
    Beschreibung: Satellite observations between 2007 and 2015 are used to characterize the annual occurrence of the premonsoon drought (PMD), which causes human death and economic hardship in India, and to postulate its scientific causes. The PMD is identified as the driest and hottest weeks in central India just before the summer monsoon onset. The onset is marked by a sharp increase in precipitation and soil moisture and a decrease in air temperature. The difference between integrated moisture transported in from the Arabian Sea and out to the Bay of Bengal is largely deposited as rain over land during the summer monsoon. The PMD occurs during the short period when moisture is drawn out to the Bay of Bengal before it can be replenished from the Arabian Sea. The time gap is caused by the earlier start of summer monsoon (southwest) winds in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea. Sea surface temperature rise precedes the start of summer monsoon wind in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and it has the potential to give advance warning of the PMD and thus allow mitigation of the adverse effects.
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  • 33
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-08-01
    Beschreibung: Global surface temperature changes are a fundamental expression of climate change. Recent, much-debated variations in the observed rate of surface temperature change have highlighted the importance of uncertainty in adjustments applied to sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. These adjustments are applied to compensate for systematic biases and changes in observing protocol. Better quantification of the adjustments and their uncertainties would increase confidence in estimated surface temperature change and provide higher-quality gridded SST fields for use in many applications. Bias adjustments have been based on either physical models of the observing processes or the assumption of an unchanging relationship between SST and a reference dataset, such as night marine air temperature. These approaches produce similar estimates of SST bias on the largest space and time scales, but regional differences can exceed the estimated uncertainty. We describe challenges to improving our understanding of SST biases. Overcoming these will require clarification of past observational methods, improved modeling of biases associated with each observing method, and the development of statistical bias estimates that are less sensitive to the absence of metadata regarding the observing method. New approaches are required that embed bias models, specific to each type of observation, within a robust statistical framework. Mobile platforms and rapid changes in observation type require biases to be assessed for individual historic and present-day platforms (i.e., ships or buoys) or groups of platforms. Lack of observational metadata and high-quality observations for validation and bias model development are likely to remain major challenges.
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  • 34
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-01
    Beschreibung: The climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) are investigated using the GFDL CM2.1 and the NCAR CESM1 coupled climate models. The model North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored to fixed anomalies corresponding to an estimate of the internally driven component of the observed AMV. Both models show that during boreal summer the AMV alters the Walker circulation and generates precipitation anomalies over the whole tropical belt. A warm phase of the AMV yields reduced precipitation over the western United States, drier conditions over the Mediterranean basin, and wetter conditions over northern Europe. During boreal winter, the AMV modulates by a factor of about 2 the frequency of occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events. This response is associated with anomalies over the Pacific that project onto the interdecadal Pacific oscillation pattern (i.e., Pacific decadal oscillation–like anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and a symmetrical pattern in the Southern Hemisphere). This winter response is a lagged adjustment of the Pacific Ocean to the AMV forcing in summer. Most of the simulated global-scale impacts are driven by the tropical part of the AMV, except for the winter North Atlantic Oscillation–like response over the North Atlantic–European region, which is driven by both the subpolar and tropical parts of the AMV. The teleconnections between the Pacific and Atlantic basins alter the direct North Atlantic local response to the AMV, which highlights the importance of using a global coupled framework to investigate the climate impacts of the AMV. The similarity of the two model responses gives confidence that impacts described in this paper are robust.
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  • 35
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmosphere exhibits robust periodicity on time scales of ~20–25 days. Previous studies have demonstrated the robustness of the periodicity in hemispheric averages of various eddy quantities. Here the authors explore the signature of the periodicity on regional spatial scales. Intraseasonal periodicity in the Southern Hemisphere circulation derives from out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity that form in association with extratropical wave packets as they propagate to the east. In the upper troposphere, the out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity form not along the path of extratropical wave packets, but in their wake. The out-of-phase anomalies in wave activity give rise to periodicity not only on hemispheric scales, but also on synoptic scales when the circulation is sampled along an eastward path between ~5 and 15 m s−1. It is argued that 1) periodicity in extratropical wave activity derives from two-way interactions between the heat fluxes and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere and 2) the unique longitude–time structure of the periodicity in upper-tropospheric wave activity derives from the contrasting eastward speeds of the source of the periodicity in the lower troposphere (~10 m s−1) and wave packets in the upper troposphere (~25 m s−1).
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  • 36
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-03
    Beschreibung: Smartphone pressure observations have the potential to greatly increase surface observation density on convection-resolving scales. Currently available smartphone pressure observations are tested through assimilation in a mesoscale ensemble for a 3-day, convectively active period in the eastern United States. Both raw pressure (altimeter) observations and 1-h pressure (altimeter) tendency observations are considered. The available observation density closely follows population density, but observations are also available in rural areas. The smartphone observations are found to contain significant noise, which can limit their effectiveness. The assimilated smartphone observations contribute to small improvements in 1-h forecasts of surface pressure and 10-m wind, but produce larger errors in 2-m temperature forecasts. Short-term (0–4 h) precipitation forecasts are improved when smartphone pressure and pressure tendency observations are assimilated as compared with an ensemble that assimilates no observations. However, these improvements are limited to broad, mesoscale features with minimal skill provided at convective scales using the current smartphone observation density. A specific mesoscale convective system (MCS) is examined in detail, and smartphone pressure observations captured the expected dynamic structures associated with this feature. Possibilities for further development of smartphone observations are discussed.
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  • 37
  • 38
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-01
    Beschreibung: As high-resolution numerical weather prediction models are now commonplace, “neighborhood” verification metrics are regularly employed to evaluate forecast quality. These neighborhood approaches relax the requirement that perfect forecasts must match observations at the grid scale, contrasting traditional point-by-point verification methods. One recently proposed metric, the neighborhood equitable threat score, is calculated from 2 × 2 contingency tables that are populated within a neighborhood framework. However, the literature suggests three subtly different methods of populating neighborhood-based contingency tables. Thus, this work compares and contrasts these three variants and shows they yield statistically significantly different conclusions regarding forecast performance, illustrating that neighborhood-based contingency tables should be constructed carefully and transparently. Furthermore, this paper shows how two of the methods use inconsistent event definitions and suggests a “neighborhood maximum” approach be used to fill neighborhood-based contingency tables.
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  • 39
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-21
    Beschreibung: Regional and global climate models are usually validated by comparison to derived observations or reanalyses. Using a model in data assimilation results in a direct comparison to observations to produce its own analyses that may reveal systematic errors. In this study, regional analyses over North America are produced based on the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) combined with the variational data assimilation system of the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). CRCM5 is driven at its boundaries by global analyses from ERA-Interim or produced with the global configuration of the CRCM5. Assimilation cycles for the months of January and July 2011 revealed systematic errors in winter through large values in the mean analysis increments. This bias is attributed to the coupling of the lateral boundary conditions of the regional model with the driving data particularly over the northern boundary where a rapidly changing large-scale circulation created significant cross-boundary flows. Increasing the time frequency of the lateral driving and applying a large-scale spectral nudging significantly improved the circulation through the lateral boundaries, which translated in a much better agreement with observations.
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  • 40
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-05-01
    Beschreibung: Large-eddy simulations are used to produce realistic, high-resolution depictions of near-surface winds in translating tornadoes. The translation speed, swirl ratio, and vertical forcing are varied to provide a range of vortex intensities and structural types. Observation experiments are then performed in which the tornadoes are passed over groups of simulated sensors. Some of the experiments use indestructible, error-free anemometers while others limit the range of observable wind speeds to mimic the characteristics of damage indicators specified in the enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. Also, in some of the experiments the sensors are randomly placed while in others they are positioned in regularly spaced columns perpendicular to the vortex tracks to mimic field project deployments. Statistical analysis of the results provides quantitative insight into the limitations of tornado intensity estimates based on damage surveys or in situ measurements in rural or semirural areas. The mean negative bias relative to the “true” global maximum 3-s gust at 10 m AGL (the standard for EF ratings) exceeds 10 m s−1 in all cases and 45 m s−1 in some cases. A small number of sensors are generally sufficient to provide a good approximation of the running time-mean maximum during the period of observation, although the required spatial resolution of the sensor group is still substantially higher than that previously attained by any field program. Because of model limitations and simplifying assumptions, these results are regarded as a lower bound for tornado intensity underestimates in rural and semirural areas and provide a baseline for further inquiry.
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  • 41
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-13
    Beschreibung: Few studies show how university students perceive and respond to tornado warnings. Lacking in the literature are investigations of what influences perceptions of tornado risk among this population and how these perceptions may influence actions. Through an online survey of 640 undergraduates enrolled at a large university in Nebraska, significant relationships were found between student demographics, perceptions, and response actions. Tornado mythology relevant to the local city influenced perceptions so that students felt the city was less at risk than surrounding rural land. Confirming risk before sheltering remained popular, with some students choosing to never seek shelter during a warning. International students were more likely to initially seek shelter during a warning but had difficulty interpreting warning polygons or accurately choosing the best safety actions. Tornado-related education resulted in international students being more likely to have safety plans and shelter in more appropriate locations. Most domestic students correctly identified safe areas in which to shelter, but fewer knew the precise meaning of a tornado warning polygon. Parents/guardians and the school were the most popular tornado knowledge sources for domestic students, while friends and self-education were popular with international students. Respondents seemed willing to learn more about tornadoes and perceived a lack of tornado-related resources available on campus. This implies that more thorough tornado education and information dissemination on university campuses is warranted. Faster personalization of risk, dispelling local myths, and educating those new to tornado-prone locations should be emphasized.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
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  • 42
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Atmospheric electric field measurements from the Concordia station on the Antarctic Plateau are compared with those from Vostok (560 km away) for the period of overlap (2009–11) and to Carnegie (1915–29) and extended Vostok (2006–11) measurements. The Antarctic data are sorted according to several sets of criteria for rejecting local variability to examine a local summer-noon influence on the measurements and to improve estimates of the global signal. The contribution of the solar wind influence is evaluated and removed from the Vostok and Concordia measurements. Simultaneous measurements yield days when the covariability of the electric field measurements at Concordia and Vostok exceeds 90%, as well as intervals when significant local variability is apparent. Days of simultaneous changes in shape and mean level of the diurnal variation, as illustrated in a 5-day sequence, can be interpreted as due to changes in the relative upward current output of the electrified cloud generators predominating at low latitudes. Smaller average local meteorological influences are removed from the larger Vostok dataset, revealing changes in the shape of monthly average diurnal variations, which are similarly attributed to changes in predominantly low-latitude convection from month to month.
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  • 43
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-25
    Beschreibung: Thirty-nine thunderstorms are examined using multiple-Doppler, polarimetric, and total lightning observations to understand the role of mixed-phase kinematics and microphysics in the development of lightning jumps. This sample size is larger than those of previous studies on this topic. The principal result of this study is that lightning jumps are a result of mixed-phase updraft intensification. Larger increases in intense updraft volume (≥10 m s−1) and larger changes in peak updraft speed are observed prior to lightning jump occurrence when compared to other nonjump increases in total flash rate. Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney rank sum testing yields p values ≤ 0.05, indicating statistical independence between lightning jump and nonjump distributions for these two parameters. Similar changes in mixed-phase graupel mass magnitude are observed prior to lightning jumps and nonjump increases in total flash rate. The p value for the graupel mass change is p = 0.096, so jump and nonjump distributions for the graupel mass change are not found to be statistically independent using the p = 0.05 significance level. The timing of updraft volume, speed, and graupel mass increases is found to be 4–13 min in advance of lightning jump occurrence. Also, severe storms without lightning jumps lack robust mixed-phase updrafts, demonstrating that mixed-phase updrafts are not always a requirement for severe weather occurrence. Therefore, the results of this study show that lightning jump occurrences are coincident with larger increases in intense mixed-phase updraft volume and peak updraft speed than smaller nonjump increases in total flash rate.
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  • 44
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: A simple numerical experiment was performed to investigate the result published in many papers that measurements indicate that aggregates may be well represented as oblate spheroids with mean aspect ratio (semiminor axis to semimajor axis length) of 0.6. The aspect ratio measurements are derived from two-dimensional projections of complex three-dimensional aggregates. Here, aggregates were modeled as ellipsoids with semiprincipal axes of length a, b, and c, which include oblate spheroids (a = b) as a class, and the projected aspect ratios of large numbers of two-dimensional projections of them were sampled. When sampling oblate spheroids with aspect ratio 0.6 over random orientations, the mean projected aspect ratio is 0.746. A mean projected aspect ratio of 0.6 is obtained for an oblate spheroid with aspect ratio of 0.33. When sampling randomly oriented ellipsoids with semiminor axes (b, c) varying from 0.10 to 1.00 in steps of 0.01, representing many complex shapes, the mean projected aspect ratio is 0.595, close to the measured mean projected aspect ratio of aggregates of 0.6. These experiments demonstrate that the conclusion one may safely draw from the projected aspect ratio measurements is that the mean aspect ratio of aggregates is lower than 0.6. Moreover, the projected aspect ratio distributions from measurements suggest a mixture of aggregate shapes, rather than only oblate spheroids as is often assumed.
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  • 45
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-07-01
    Beschreibung: To better understand the impacts of climate change, environmental monitoring capabilities must be enhanced by deploying additional and more accurate satellite- and ground-based (including in situ) sensors. In addition, reanalysis of observations collected decades ago but long forgotten can unlock precious information about the recent past. Historical, in situ observations mainly cover densely inhabited areas and frequently traveled routes. In contrast, large selections of early meteorological satellite data, waiting to be exploited today, provide information about remote areas unavailable from any other source. When initially collected, these satellite data posed great challenges to transmission and archiving facilities. As a result, data access was limited to the main teams of scientific investigators associated with the instruments. As archive media have aged, so have the mission scientists and other pioneers of satellite meteorology, who sometimes retired in possession of unique and unpublished information. This paper presents examples of recently recovered satellite data records, including satellite imagery, early infrared hyperspectral soundings, and early microwave humidity soundings. Their value for climate applications today can be realized using methods and techniques that were not yet available when the data were first collected, including efficient and accurate observation simulators and data assimilation into reanalyses. Modern technical infrastructure allows serving entire mission datasets online, enabling easy access and exploration by a broad range of users, including new and old generations of climate scientists.
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  • 46
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-07-01
    Beschreibung: Boiling is an extreme form of evaporation that occurs when the saturation vapor pressure is equal to the total atmospheric pressure. This paper computes boiling temperature by four different methods and compares the results to data provided in the CRC Handbook of Physics and Chemistry. The first method utilizes a constant value for the latent heat of vaporization (lυ) in the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, and the second method uses a previously published temperature-dependent linear function for lυ. A third method is suggested that begins by deriving a new second-order function for lυ, and then applies this function in an error-reduction loop to determine boiling temperature as a function of pressure. This method for computing boiling temperature shows a mean bias of 0.31°C between mean sea level pressure and 100 hPa and a mean error of less than a tenth of a percent, which is a significant improvement over both of the first two methods. The fourth method uses a fifth-order polynomial, eliminating lυ and making pressure the independent variable, which is used to compute boiling temperature with a mean bias of 0.25°C and a mean error of 0.09% for pressures between mean sea level pressure and 100 hPa.
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  • 47
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: In this two-part study, relationships between the cloud gamma size distribution shape parameter, microphysical processes, and cloud characteristics of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds are investigated using large-eddy simulations. In Part I, the dependence of the shape parameter (which is closely related to the distribution width) on cloud properties and processes was investigated. However, the distribution width also impacts cloud process rates and in turn cloud properties, and it is this aspect of the relationship that is explored in Part II and is discussed in the context of aerosol–cloud interactions. In simulations with a bulk microphysics scheme, it is found that the evaporation rates are much more sensitive to the value of the shape parameter than to the condensation rates. This is due to changes in both the rate of removal of mass and the rate of removal of fully evaporated droplets. As a result, cloud properties such as droplet number concentration, mean droplet diameter, and cloud fraction are strongly impacted by the value of the shape parameter, particularly in the subsaturated regions of the clouds. These changes can be on the same order of magnitude as changes due to increasing or decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 16. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the shape parameter on cloud albedo. The cloud albedo increases as the shape parameter is increased as a result of the changes in evaporation. The magnitude of the increase is about 4 times larger than previous estimates. However, this increase in cloud albedo is largely offset by a decrease in the cloud fraction, which results in only small increases to the domain-average albedo. Implications for the aerosol relative dispersion effect are discussed.
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  • 48
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-06
    Beschreibung: This study investigates the impacts of historical land-cover change on summer afternoon precipitation over North America using the Community Earth System Model. Using land–atmosphere coupling metrics, this study examines the sensitivity of afternoon atmospheric conditions to morning land surface states and fluxes that are altered by land-cover changes before and since 1850. The deforestation in the eastern United States prior to 1850 leads to increased latent but decreased sensible heat flux during the morning and a reduction in afternoon precipitation over the southern regions of the U.S. East Coast. The agricultural expansion over the Great Plains since preindustrial times shows similar effects on surface fluxes but results in a significant widespread increase in precipitation over the crop area. The coupling metrics exhibit a strong positive soil moisture–precipitation relationship over the Great Plains. Impacts of land-cover change on precipitation manifest through changes in rainfall frequency, rather than intensity, that are largely controlled by the distribution of CAPE as the trigger of convective precipitation. However, deforestation and later reforestation over the eastern United States, where coupling properties are different than the Great Plains, do not have as dominant an effect on afternoon precipitation. Additionally, precipitation over parts of the U.S. Southwest decreases in this model during the earlier period of East Coast deforestation, owing to changes in the large-scale circulation over North America driven by land-use changes prior to 1850.
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  • 49
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-14
    Beschreibung: Sixteen years of Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) reflectivity profile data are collected for oceanic, continental, and island tropical regions within the boreal winter intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). When sorted by the rain top height (RTH), a consistent behavior emerges where the average reflectivity profiles originating at different RTHs form non-overlapping manifolds in the height–reflectivity space, excluding the brightband regions for stratiform type profiles. Based on reflectivity slope (dBZ km−1) profile characteristics and physical considerations, the profiles are divided into three classes: 1) cold profiles, which originate above the −20°C isotherm height and display convergence to a single reflectivity slope profile independent of RTH; 2) warm profiles, which originate below the 0°C isotherm height and display strong reflectivity slope dependence on RTH, with slope values per RTH linearly decreasing with decreased height; and 3) mixed profiles, which originate at the layer located in between the lowest cold rain and highest warm rain profiles and show a gradual transition from cold profile to warm profile reflectivity slope behavior. Stratiform type profiles show similarity for all regions. It is shown that the typical tropical stratiform cold rain profile can be simply parameterized given the temperature profile. Convective type profiles present larger interregional differences. Their deviation from the typical stratiform cold rain profile is used as a measure for convective intensity, where continental and island regions show larger deviations compared to oceanic ones.
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  • 50
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-09
    Beschreibung: The authors study a wide range of atmospheric circulations with an idealized moist general circulation model to evaluate the mechanisms controlling intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrations. They employ a zonally symmetric aquaplanet slab ocean of fixed depth and force top-of-atmosphere insolation to remain fixed at the pole for an “eternal solstice” simulation and also vary seasonally for a range of rotation rates, keeping all other parameters Earth-like. For rotation rates ΩE/8 and slower, a transient maximum in zonal-mean precipitation appears at the summer pole; however, the ITCZ associated with the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation lies at ~60°. The authors assess how widely used predictors of the ITCZ position perform in this wide parameter space. Standard predictors based on different estimates of the Hadley cell’s poleward extent are correlated with but overestimate off-equatorial ITCZ locations. Interestingly, in the eternal-solstice case for Earth’s rotation rate, the ITCZ remains at subtropical latitudes even though the lower-level moist static energy maximizes at the summer pole. While seemingly at odds with convective quasi-equilibrium arguments, this can happen because at Earth’s rotation rates, the thermal stratification set in convective regions can only be communicated within the tropics, where temperature gradients are constrained to be weak. The authors therefore develop an understanding of the ITCZ’s position based on top-of-atmosphere energetics and the boundary layer momentum budget and argue that friction and pressure gradient forces determine the region of maximum convergence, offering a modified dynamical perspective on the monsoon-like seasonal weather patterns of terrestrial planets.
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  • 51
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-20
    Beschreibung: This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 52
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-07
    Beschreibung: This study attempts to improve the prediction of western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia (EA) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using modes of large-scale climate variability [e.g., the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (NASST)] as predictors in a hybrid statistical–dynamical scheme, based on dynamical model forecasts with the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). Overall, the predictive skill of the hybrid model for the WNP TC frequency increases from lead month 5 (initialized in January) to lead month 0 (initialized in June) in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The hybrid model outperforms FLOR-FA in predicting WNP TC frequency for all lead months. The predictive skill of the hybrid model improves as the forecast lead time decreases, with values of the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.56 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.69 in June. The hybrid models for landfalling TCs over the entire East Asian (EEA) coast and its three subregions [i.e., southern EA (SEA), middle EA (MEA), and northern EA (NEA)] dramatically outperform FLOR-FA. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed TC landfall over SEA increases from 0.52 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.64 in June. The hybrid models substantially reduce the RMSE of landfalling TCs over SEA and EEA compared with FLOR-FA. This study suggests that the PMM and NASST/AMM can be used to improve statistical/hybrid forecast models for the frequencies of WNP or East Asia landfalling TCs.
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  • 53
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-13
    Beschreibung: Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to the aviation community have been produced and put into the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since 2006. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is now producing explicit forecasts of ceiling height and visibility computed by algorithms based on variables directly forecasted by the HRRR. The Meteorological Development Laboratory has improved the LAMP ceiling and visibility forecasts by combining these two sources of information into a LAMP–HRRR MELD. The new forecasts show improvement over the original LAMP and particularly over the HRRR and persistence in terms of bias, threat score, and the Gerrity score. This paper explains how the MELD is produced and shows selected verification and example forecasts. A new guidance product based on this work will be made available to partners and customers.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0434
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 54
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-20
    Beschreibung: Dense oceanic overflows descend over the rough topography of the continental slope entraining and mixing with surrounding waters. The associated dilution dictates the fate of these currents and thus is of fundamental importance to the formation of deep water masses. The entrainment in a dense current flowing down a sloping bottom in a rotating homogeneous fluid is investigated using laboratory experiments, focusing on the influence of the bottom roughness on the flow dynamics. The roughness is idealized by an array of vertical rigid cylinders and both their spacing and height are varied as well as the inclination of the sloping bottom. The presence of the roughness is generally observed to decelerate the dense current, with a consequent reduction of the Froude number, when compared to the smooth bottom configuration. However, the dilution of the dense current due to mixing with the ambient fluid is enhanced by the roughness elements, especially for low Froude numbers. When the entrainment due to shear instability at the interface between the dense current and the ambient fluid is low, the additional turbulence and mixing arising at the bottom of the dense current due to the roughness elements strongly affects the dilution of the current. Finally, a strong dependence of the entrainment parameter on the Reynolds number is observed.
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  • 55
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Surface air temperature is a basic meteorological variable to monitor the environment and assess climate change. Four remote sensing methods—the temperature–vegetation index (TVX), the univariate linear regression method, the multivariate linear regression method, and the advection-energy balance for surface air temperature (ADEBAT)—have been developed to acquire surface air temperature on a regional scale. To evaluate their utilities, they were applied to estimate the surface air temperature in northwestern China and were compared with each other through regressive analyses, t tests, estimation errors, and analyses on estimations of different underlying surfaces. Results can be summarized into three aspects: 1) The regressive analyses and t tests indicate that the multivariate linear regression method and the ADEBAT provide better accuracy than the other two methods. 2) Frequency histograms on estimation errors show that the multivariate linear regression method produces the minimum error range, and the univariate linear regression method produces the maximum error range. Errors of the multivariate linear regression method exhibit a nearly normal distribution and that of the ADEBAT exhibit a bimodal distribution, whereas the other two methods display negative skewness distributions. 3) Estimates on different underlying surfaces show that the TVX and the univariate linear regression method are significantly limited in regions with sparse vegetation cover. The multivariate linear regression method has estimation errors within 1°C and without high levels of errors, and the ADEBAT also produces high estimation errors on bare ground.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
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    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 56
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: The existence of strong easterly winds down the western slope of the south-central Andes in Chile, locally known as Puelche winds, has been known by the meteorological community since at least the mid-twentieth century. However, this is the first time that a climatological characterization of them is presented. The analysis is based on 36 yr of daily CFSR–NCEP reanalyzed data, validated by surface weather observations. Puelche winds are present all year round. The main synoptic-scale forcing of Puelche winds in south-central Chile is the passage of cold anticyclonic systems across the Andes Mountains. As these systems progress into the South American continent, a zonal surface circulation crossing from Argentina (upslope) to Chile (downslope) develops. Unlike terral and raco, other foehnlike winds at subtropical latitudes in Chile, the Puelche winds are forced by both meridional and zonal pressure gradients. Presumably, the smaller altitude of the Andes Mountains south of 35°S allows the air crossing from east to west in response to the presence of the migratory high pressure system over Argentina. As in other places where foehnlike winds develop, the warming extends far from places where the Puelche is actually observed, that is, to the west of the Andes into the surface at the coastal and the central depression areas. This “foehn clearance” is the result of cloudless sky and drier atmosphere that would allow an increase in the solar radiation reaching the surface and a subsequent warming of the near-surface air. The foehn clearance also drives an enhanced nighttime cooling, especially on the days after the onset of the Puelche event.
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  • 57
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: The intermittency of solar power production is dependent on the evolution and advection of the nearby cloud field. A key problem related to solar energy integration is the improvement of 1-h-ahead forecasts to reduce the impact of intermittency on power systems operations. Many solar forecasts explicitly or implicitly assume Taylor’s hypothesis. While such advection-only forecasts can be presumed to be valid across sufficiently short time scales, it is not clear how rapidly the skill of such a forecast decays with increased lead time. As the goal is to improve the quality of 1-h-ahead forecasts, this work focuses on quantifying the skill of cloud-track wind-based cumulus-dominated cloud field forecasts with respect to lead time. No explicit connection is drawn to the quality of solar forecasts because of the importance of separating two potential sources of error: cloud field forecasting and radiative transfer estimation. It is found that the cumulus field forecast skill begins to asymptotically approach a minimum at lead times of beyond 30 min, suggesting that advection-only forecasts in a cumulus-dominated environment should not be relied upon for 1-h-ahead point forecasts used by radiative transfer methods to estimate solar power production. A first attempt at forming a probabilistic forecast that can quantify this increasing uncertainty when using advection-only methods is presented.
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  • 58
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-17
    Beschreibung: Studies have shown that echo returns from clear-air Bragg scatter (CABS) can be used to detect the height of the convective boundary layer and to assess the systematic differential reflectivity (ZDR) bias for a radar site. However, these studies did not use data from operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) or data from a large variety of sites. A new algorithm to automatically detect CABS from any operational WSR-88D with dual-polarization capability while excluding contamination from precipitation, biota, and ground clutter is presented here. Visual confirmation and tests related to the sounding parameters’ relative humidity slope, refractivity gradient, and gradient Richardson number are used to assess the algorithm. Results show that automated detection of CABS in operational WSR-88D data gives useful ZDR bias information while omitting the majority of contaminated cases. Such an algorithm holds potential for radar calibration efforts and Bragg scatter studies in general.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 59
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-05-01
    Beschreibung: Neutral-buoyancy vehicles demand high-density energy sources and lithium is light with high oxidation energy. PolyPlus Battery Company has developed a prototype lithium-seawater battery that is attractive for powering long-duration autonomous oceanographic vehicles (floats and underwater gliders). These batteries were tested in the laboratory and at sea. PolyPlus batteries use “Protected Lithium Electrodes” with proprietary “windows” protecting the volatile lithium anode from water while passing lithium ions. The cathode reduces oxygen dissolved in seawater, or hydrolyzes seawater to produce hydrogen. Not requiring additional electrolyte, fuel, or pressure cases, these cells have impressive weight advantages. Good electrode–seawater mass transfer is required but can increase drag and be impeded by biofouling. Tests assessing robustness of the PolyPlus batteries in oceanographic use, evaluating mass transfer issues, and observing biofouling impacts are reported. In sea trials, two cells were tested for 69 days mounted on a Spray glider. Findings are as follows: 1) the cells were robust over 900 dives, most to 400 m; 2) without antifouling measures, the cells became substantially biofouled, but their performance was undiminished; and 3) performance was complex, depending on current density, oxygen concentration, and flow conditions. For dissolved oxygen concentration above 1 mL L−1, the cells delivered 9 W m−2 of electrode surface at 3 V. For low oxygen, the cell shifted to hydrolysis near 2.3 V, but mass transfer was less critical so current density could be increased and observed power reached 5 W m−2. This could be increased using a lower resistance load.
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  • 60
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-06
    Beschreibung: Using the satellite-infrared-based Simple Convective Aggregation Index (SCAI) to determine the degree of aggregation, 5 years of CloudSat–CALIPSO cloud profiles are composited at a spatial scale of 10 degrees to study the relationship between cloud vertical structure and aggregation. For a given large-scale vertical motion and domain-averaged precipitation rate, there is a large decrease in anvil cloud (and in cloudiness as a whole) and an increase in clear sky and low cloud as aggregation increases. The changes in thick anvil cloud are proportional to the changes in total areal cover of brightness temperatures below 240 K [cold cloud area (CCA)], which is negatively correlated with SCAI. Optically thin anvil cover decreases significantly when aggregation increases, even for a fixed CCA, supporting previous findings of a higher precipitation efficiency for aggregated convection. Cirrus, congestus, and midlevel clouds do not display a consistent relationship with the degree of aggregation. Lidar-observed low-level cloud cover (where the lidar is not attenuated) is presented herein as the best estimate of the true low-level cloud cover, and it is shown that it increases as aggregation increases. Qualitatively, the relationships between cloud distribution and SCAI do not change with sea surface temperature, while cirrus clouds are more abundant and low-level clouds less at higher sea surface temperatures. For the observed regimes, the vertical cloud profile varies more evidently with SCAI than with mean precipitation rate. These results confirm that convective scenes with similar vertical motion and rainfall can be associated with vastly different cloudiness (both high and low cloud) and humidity depending on the degree of convective aggregation.
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  • 61
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-15
    Beschreibung: Continental-scale snow radiance assimilation (RA) experiments are conducted in order to improve snow estimates across snow and land-cover types in North America. In the experiments, the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is applied and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperature TB observations are assimilated into an RA system composed of the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4); radiative transfer models (RTMs); and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The performance of two snowpack RTMs, the Dense Media Radiative Transfer–Multi-Layers model (DMRT-ML), and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS) in improving snow depth estimates through RA is compared. Continental-scale snow estimates are enhanced through RA by using AMSR-E TB at the 18.7- and 23.8-GHz channels [3% (DMRT-ML) and 2% (MEMLS) improvements compared to the cases using the 18.7- and 36.5-GHz channels] and by considering the vegetation single-scattering albedo ω [2.5% (DMRT-ML) and 4.8% (MEMLS) improvements compared to the cases neglecting ω]. The contribution of TB of the vegetation canopy to TB at the top of the atmosphere is better represented by considering ω in the RA system, and improvements in the resulting snow depth are evident for the forest land-cover type (about 5%–11%) and the taiga and alpine snow classes (about 5%–11% and 4%–8%, respectively), especially in the MEMLS case. Compared to the open-loop run (0.171-m snow depth RMSE), about 7% (DMRT-ML) and 10% (MEMLS) overall improvements of the RA performance are achieved.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 62
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Precipitation forcing is critical for hydrological modeling as it has a strong impact on the accuracy of simulated river flows. In general, precipitation data used in hydrological modeling are provided by weather stations. However, in regions with sparse weather station coverage, the spatial interpolation of the individual weather stations provides a rough approximation of the real precipitation fields. In such regions, precipitation from interpolated weather stations is generally considered unreliable for hydrological modeling. Precipitation estimates from reanalyses could represent an interesting alternative in regions where the weather station density is low. This article compares the performances of river flows simulated by a watershed model using precipitation and temperature estimates from reanalyses and gridded observations. The comparison was carried out based on the density of surface weather stations for 316 Canadian watersheds located in three climatic regions. Three state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalyses—ERA-Interim, CFSR, and MERRA—and one gridded observations database over Canada—Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)—were used. Results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe values of simulated river flows using precipitation and temperature data from CFSR and NRCan were generally equivalent regardless of the weather station density. ERA-Interim and MERRA performed significantly better than NRCan for watersheds with weather station densities of less than 1 station per 1000 km2 in the mountainous region. Overall, these results indicate that for hydrological modeling in regions with high spatial variability of precipitation such as mountainous regions, reanalyses perform better than gridded observations when the weather station density is low.
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  • 63
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-28
    Beschreibung: Research suggests that providing weather forecast end users with additional information about the forecast uncertainty of a possible event can enhance the preparation of mitigation measures. But not all users have the same threshold for taking action. This paper focuses on the question of whether there are influencing factors that determine decision thresholds for numerical weather forecast information beginning at which the general public would start to take protective action. In spring 2014, 1342 residents of Berlin, Germany participated in a survey. Questions related to the following topics: perception of and prior experience with severe weather, trustworthiness of forecasters and confidence in weather forecasts, and sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Within the questionnaire a scenario was created in order to determine individual decision thresholds and see whether subgroups of the sample lead to different thresholds. Results show that people’s willingness to act tends to be higher and decision thresholds tend to be lower if the expected weather event is more severe or the property at risk is of higher value. Several influencing factors of risk perception have significant effects such as education, housing status, and ability to act, whereas classic sociodemographic determinants alone are often not sufficient to fully grasp risk perception and protection behavior.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 64
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Beschreibung: This is Part II of a two-part study focused on Stokes drift and transient rip current (TRC) effects on the unstratified (Part I) and stratified (this paper) inner shelf. Part I focuses on funwaveC–Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) coupling and TRC effects on mixing and exchange on an unstratified inner shelf. Here, two simulations (R3 and R4) are performed on a stratified inner shelf and surfzone with typical bathymetry, stratification, and wave conditions. R3 is a COAWST-only simulation (no TRCs), while R4 has funwaveC–COAWST coupling (with TRCs). In R4, TRCs lead to patchy, near-surface cooling, vertical isotherm displacement, and increased water column mixing. For both R3 and R4, the mean Lagrangian circulation has two nearly isolated surfzones and inner-shelf overturning circulation cells, with a stronger, R4, inner-shelf circulation cell. The R4, inner-shelf, vertical velocity variability is 2–3 times stronger than a simulation with TRCs and no stratification. Relative to R3, R4 eddy diffusivity is strongly elevated out to three surfzone widths offshore due to TRCs and TRC-induced density overturns. The R4 inner-shelf stratification is reduced nearshore, and mean isotherms slope more strongly than R3 because of the TRC-enhanced irreversible mixing. At six surfzone widths offshore, both R3 and R4 are in geostrophic balance, explaining the stratified (summertime) observed deviation from Stokes–Coriolis balance. In this region, baroclinic pressure gradients induced by sloping isotherms induce an alongshore geostrophic jet offshore, strongest in R4. In R4, TRCs result in an enhanced (2–10 times) cross-shore exchange velocity across the entire inner shelf, relative to R3. Accurate, stratified, inner-shelf simulations of pollution, larval, or sediment transport must include transient rip currents.
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  • 65
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-31
    Beschreibung: A novel multi-iteration statistical method for studying tracer spreading using drifter data is introduced. The approach allows for the best use of the available drifter data by making use of a simple iterative procedure, which results in the statistically probable map showing the likelihood that a tracer released at some source location would visit different geographical regions, along with the associated arrival travel times. The technique is tested using real drifter data in the North Atlantic. Two examples are considered corresponding to sources in the western and eastern North Atlantic Ocean, that is, Massachusetts Bay–like and Irish Sea–like sources, respectively. In both examples, the method worked well in estimating the statistics of the tracer transport pathways and travel times throughout the entire North Atlantic. The role of eddies versus mean flow is quantified using the same technique, and eddies are shown to significantly broaden the spread of a tracer. The sensitivity of the results to the size of the source domain is investigated and causes for this sensitivity are discussed.
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  • 66
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-14
    Beschreibung: Based on results of 11 yr of heterogeneous ice nucleation experiments at the Aerosol Interaction and Dynamics in the Atmosphere (AIDA) chamber in Karlsruhe, Germany, a new empirical parameterization framework for heterogeneous ice nucleation was developed. The framework currently includes desert dust and soot aerosol and quantifies the ice nucleation efficiency in terms of the ice nucleation active surface site (INAS) approach. The immersion freezing INAS densities nS of all desert dust experiments follow an exponential fit as a function of temperature, well in agreement with an earlier analysis of AIDA experiments. The deposition nucleation nS isolines for desert dust follow u-shaped curves in the ice saturation ratio–temperature (Si–T) diagram at temperatures below about 240 K. The negative slope of these isolines toward lower temperatures may be explained by classical nucleation theory (CNT), whereas the behavior toward higher temperatures may be caused by a pore condensation and freezing mechanism. The deposition nucleation measured for soot at temperatures below about 240 K also follows u-shaped isolines with a shift toward higher Si for soot with higher organic carbon content. For immersion freezing of soot aerosol, only upper limits for nS were determined and used to rescale an existing parameterization line. The new parameterization framework is compared to a CNT-based parameterization and an empirical framework as used in models. The comparison shows large differences in shape and magnitude of the nS isolines especially for deposition nucleation. For the application in models, implementation of this new framework is simple compared to that of other expressions.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 67
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-17
    Beschreibung: Clear-air Bragg scatter (CABS) is a refractivity gradient return generated by turbulent eddies that operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) systems can detect. The randomly oriented nature of the eddies results in a differential reflectivity (ZDR) value near 0 dB, and thus CABS can be used as an assessment of ZDR calibration in the absence of excessive contamination from precipitation or biota. An automated algorithm to estimate ZDR bias from CABS was developed by the Radar Operations Center and can be used to assess the calibration quality of the dual-polarized WSR-88D fleet. This technique supplements existing ZDR bias assessment tools, especially the use of other external targets, such as light rain and dry snow. The estimates of ZDR bias from CABS using a 1700–1900 UTC time window were compared to estimates from the light rain and dry snow methods. Output from the automated CABS algorithm had approximately the same amount of bias reported as the light rain and dry snow estimates (within ±0.1 dB). As the 1700–1900 UTC time window appeared too restrictive, a modified version of the algorithm was tested to detect CABS diurnally on a volume-by-volume basis (continuous monitoring). Continuous monitoring resulted in a two- to fourfold increase in the number of days with CABS detections. Results suggest estimates from CABS are viable for many sites throughout the year and provide an important addition to existing bias estimation techniques.
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  • 68
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Simultaneous wind and wave measurements have been obtained inside tropical cyclones in several hurricane hunter missions. Analyses of these datasets show that the surface wave development inside hurricanes follows essentially the same duration- and fetch-limited growth functions established in steady wind forcing conditions. This paper explores the application of several parameterization functions of wind-wave systems to quantify the energy and momentum exchanges inside hurricanes from an initially limited input of the environmental parameters, such as the wind field alone. A critical prerequisite to applying the wind-wave growth functions is the knowledge of fetch and duration for the hurricane wind field. Four sets of simultaneous wind and wave measurements from hurricane hunter missions are analyzed to derive a fetch and duration scaling model. Time series of 2D hurricane wind fields can then be used to investigate the detailed spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the sea state parameters and the associated air–sea energy and momentum exchanges following the hurricane development.
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  • 69
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Using a high-resolution regional ocean model, the impact of tidal mixing on water mass transformation and circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated through a set of numerical experiments with different configurations of tide-induced diapycnal diffusivity. The results show that including tidal mixing in both the Luzon Strait (LS) and SCS has significant impact on the LS transport and the intermediate–deep layer circulation in the SCS Basin. Analysis of the density field indicates that tidal mixing in both the LS and SCS are essential for sustaining a consistent density gradient and thus a persistent outward-directed baroclinic pressure gradient both between the western Pacific and LS and between the LS and SCS Basin, so as to maintain the strong deep-water transport through the LS. Further analysis of water mass properties suggests that tidal mixing in the deep SCS would strengthen the horizontal density gradient, intensify the basin-scale cyclonic circulation, induce more vigorous overturning, as well as generate the subbasin-scale eddies in the abyssal SCS. The results imply that tidal mixing in both the LS and SCS plays a key dynamic role in controlling water mass properties and deep circulation features in the SCS and thus need to be deliberately parameterized in ocean circulation models for this region.
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  • 70
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Alaska experienced record-setting warmth during the 2015/16 cold season (October–April). Statewide average temperatures exceeded the period-of-record mean by more than 4°C over the 7-month cold season and by more than 6°C over the 4-month late-winter period, January–April. The record warmth raises two questions: 1) Why was Alaska so warm during the 2015/16 cold season? 2) At what point in the future might this warmth become typical if greenhouse warming continues? On the basis of circulation analogs computed from sea level pressure and 850-hPa geopotential height fields, the atmospheric circulation explains less than half of the anomalous warmth. The warming signal forced by greenhouse gases in climate models accounts for about 1°C of the anomalous warmth. A factor that is consistent with the seasonal and spatial patterns of the warmth is the anomalous surface state. The surface anomalies include 1) above-normal ocean surface temperatures and below-normal sea ice coverage in the surrounding seas from which air advects into Alaska and 2) the deficient snowpack over Alaska itself. The location of the maximum of anomalous warmth over Alaska and the late-winter–early-spring increase of the anomalous warmth unexplained by the atmospheric circulation implicates snow cover and its albedo effect, which is supported by observational measurements in the boreal forest and tundra biomes. Climate model simulations indicate that warmth of this magnitude will become the norm by the 2050s if greenhouse gas emissions follow their present scenario.
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  • 71
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 72
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-07-01
    Beschreibung: Notwithstanding the rich record of hydrometric observations compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) across the contiguous United States (CONUS), flood event catalogs are sparse and incomplete. Available databases or inventories are mostly survey- or report-based, impact oriented, or limited to flash floods. These data do not represent the full range of flood events occurring in CONUS in terms of geographical locations, severity, triggering weather, or basin morphometry. This study describes a comprehensive dataset consisting of more than half a million flood events extracted from 6,301 USGS flow records and radar-rainfall fields from 2002 to 2013, using the characteristic point method. The database features event duration; first- (mass center) and second- (spreading) order moments of both precipitation and flow, flow peak and percentile, event runoff coefficient, base flow, and information on the basin geomorphology. It can support flood modeling, geomorphological and geophysical impact studies, and instantaneous unit hydrograph and risk analyses, among other investigations. Preliminary data analysis conducted in this study shows that the spatial pattern of flood events affected by snowmelt correlates well with the mean annual snowfall accumulation pattern across CONUS, the basin morphometry affects the number of flood events and peak flows, and the concentration time and spreadness of the flood events can be related to the precipitation first- and second-order moments.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
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    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 73
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: The skill of two statistical downscaled seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) was evaluated across the western United States at spatial scales relevant to local decision-making. Both statistical downscaling approaches, spatial disaggregation (SD) and bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), exhibited similar correlative skill measures; however, the BCSD method showed superior tercile-based skill measures since it corrects for variance deflation in NMME ensemble averages. Geographic and seasonal variations in downscaled forecast skill revealed patterns across the complex topography of the western United States not evident using coarse-scale skill assessments, particularly in regions subject to inversions and variability in orographic precipitation ratios. Similarly, differences in the skill of cool-season temperature and precipitation forecasts issued when the fall El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was strong versus ENSO-neutral years were evident across topographic gradients in the northwestern United States.
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  • 74
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-09-01
    Beschreibung: On 4 October 2015, a miniature supercell embedded in an outer rainband of Typhoon Mujigae produced a major tornado in Guangdong province of China, leading to 4 deaths and up to 80 injuries. This study documents the structure and evolution of the tornadic miniature supercell using coastal Doppler radars, a sounding, videos, and a damage survey. This tornado is rated at least EF3 on the enhanced Fujita scale. It is by far the strongest typhoon rainband tornado yet documented in China, and possessed double funnels near its peak intensity. Radar analysis indicates that this tornadic miniature supercell exhibited characteristics similar to those found in United States landfalling hurricanes, including a hook echo, low-level inf low notches, an echo top below 10 km, a small and shallow mesocyclone, and a long lifespan (3 h). The environmental conditions—which consisted of moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE), a low lifting condensation level, a small surface dewpoint depression, a large veering low-level vertical wind shear, and a large cell-relative helicity—are favorable for producing miniature supercells. The mesocyclone, with its maximum intensity at 2 km above ground level (AGL), formed an hour before tornadogenesis. A tornado vortex signature (TVS) was identified between 1 and 3 km AGL, when the parent mesocyclone reached its peak radar-indicated intensity of 30 m s−1. The TVS was located between the updraft and forward-flank downdraft, near the center of the mesocyclone. Dual-Doppler wind analysis reveals that tilting of the low-level vorticity into the vertical direction and subsequent stretching by a strong updraft were the main contributors to the mesocyclone intensification.
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  • 75
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: “Sea State and Boundary Layer Physics of the Emerging Arctic Ocean” is an ongoing Departmental Research Initiative sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (http://www.apl.washington.edu/project/project.php?id=arctic_sea_state). The field component took place in the fall of 2015 within the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and involved the deployment of a number of wave instruments, including a downward-looking Riegl laser rangefinder mounted on the foremast of the R/V Sikuliaq. Although time series measurements on a stationary vessel are thought to be accurate, an underway vessel introduces a Doppler shift to the observed wave spectrum. This Doppler shift is a function of the wavenumber vector and the velocity vector of the vessel. Of all the possible relative angles between wave direction and vessel heading, there are two main scenarios: 1) vessel steaming into waves and 2) vessel steaming with waves. Previous studies have considered only a subset of cases, and all were in scenario 1. This was likely to avoid ambiguities, which arise when the vessel is steaming with waves. This study addresses the ambiguities and analyzes arbitrary cases. In addition, a practical method is provided that is useful in situations when the vessel is changing speed or heading. These methods improved the laser rangefinder estimates of spectral shapes and peak parameters when compared to nearby buoys and a spectral wave model.
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 76
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Surface dispersion properties in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are studied by using a set of 441 drifters released during a 7-yr period and tracked for 2 months on average. The drifters have a drogue below the surface Ekman layer, so they approximately follow oceanic currents. This study follows two different approaches: First, two-particle (or pair) statistics are calculated [relative dispersion and finite-scale Lyapunov exponents (FSLEs)]. Relative dispersion estimates are consistent with theoretical dispersion regimes of two-dimensional turbulence: an exponential growth during the first 3 days, a Richardson-like regime between 3 and 20 days (in which relative dispersion grows as a power law in time), and standard dispersion (linear growth) for longer times. The FSLEs yield a power-law regime for scales between 10 and 150 km but do not detect an exponential regime for short separations (less than 10 km). Robust estimates of diffusivities based on both relative dispersion and FSLEs are provided. Second, two different dispersion scenarios are revealed by drifter trajectories and altimetric data and supported by two-particle statistics: (i) a south-to-north advection of drifters, predominantly along the western shelf of the region, and (ii) a retention of drifters during several weeks at the Bay of Campeche, the southernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico. Dominant processes that control the dispersion are the arrival of anticyclonic Loop Current eddies to the western shelf and their interaction with the semipermanent cyclonic structure in the Bay of Campeche.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 77
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-16
    Beschreibung: Cities are home to the majority of humanity. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms that control urban climates has substantial societal importance to a variety of sectors, including public health and energy management. In this study, data from an urban sensor network (25 stations) and moderate-resolution remote sensing were used to explore how spatial variation in near-surface air temperature Ta, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and land surface temperature (LST) depend on local variations in urban land use, both diurnally and seasonally, in the Boston, Massachusetts, metropolitan area. Positive correlations were observed between the amount of local impervious surface area (ISA) and both Ta and VPD. Heat-island effects peaked during the growing-season nighttime, when mean Ta and VPD increased by up to 0.02°C and 0.008 kPa, respectively, per unit ISA. Air temperature and VPD were strongly coupled, but their relationship exhibited significant diurnal hysteresis during the growing season, with changes in VPD generally preceding changes in Ta. Over 79% of the urban–rural difference in VPD was explained by differences in near-surface atmospheric water content, which the authors attribute to reduced evapotranspiration from lower canopy cover in Boston’s urban core. Changes in daytime heat-island intensity were mediated by seasonal feedbacks between vegetation transpiration and VPD forcing. Differences between LST and Ta showed weaker coupling in highly urbanized areas than in rural areas, with summertime surface-urban-heat-island intensity (based on LST) being up to 14°C higher than corresponding urban–rural differences in Ta.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 78
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Intrusions of Atlantic Water cause basal melting of Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers and ice shelves, such as that of Petermann Glacier, in northwest Greenland. The fate of the resulting glacial meltwater is largely unknown. It is investigated here, using hydrographic observations collected during a research cruise in Petermann Fjord and adjacent Nares Strait onboard icebreaker (I/B) Oden in August 2015. A three end-member mixing method provides the concentration of Petermann ice shelf meltwater. Meltwater from Petermann is found in all of the casts in adjacent Nares Strait, with the highest concentration along the Greenland coast in the direction of Kelvin wave phase propagation. The meltwater from Petermann mostly flows out on the northeast side of the fjord as a baroclinic boundary current, with the depth of maximum meltwater concentrations approximately 150 m and shoaling along its pathway. At the outer sill, which separates the fjord from the ambient ocean, approximately 0.3 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of basal meltwater leaves the fjord at depths between 100 and 300 m. The total geostrophic heat and freshwater fluxes close to the glacier’s terminus in August 2015 were similar to those estimated in August 2009, before the two major calving events that reduced the length of Petermann’s ice tongue by nearly a third and despite warmer inflowing Atlantic Water. These results provide a baseline but also highlight what is needed to assess properly the impact on ocean circulation and sea level of Greenland’s mass loss as the Atlantic Water warms up.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 79
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: The effect of sedimentation on stratocumulus entrainment is investigated using direct numerical simulations of a cloud-top mixing layer driven by radiative and evaporative cooling. The simulations focus on the meter and submeter scales that are expected to be relevant for entrainment, and the finest grid spacing is Δx = 26 cm. The entrainment velocity is investigated from the analysis of the integrated-buoyancy evolution equation, which is exactly derived from the flow evolution equations. The analysis shows that sedimentation interacts with entrainment through two different mechanisms. As previously reported, sedimentation prevents droplets from evaporating in the entrainment zone, which in turn reduces the entrainment velocity. Here it is shown that sedimentation also promotes a positive buoyancy flux that directly opposes entrainment. The strengths of both mechanisms are characterized by two different settling numbers, which allow for predicting which meteorological conditions favor the reduction of entrainment by sedimentation. These new insights allow for including sedimentation in a parameterization of the entrainment velocity. The reduction of the entrainment velocity by sedimentation predicted by the parameterization and observed in the simulations is 3 times larger than previously reported in large-eddy simulations, which implies that meter- and submeter-scale turbulence plays an important role in the interaction of entrainment with sedimentation. On the whole, analysis and simulations indicate that stratocumulus entrainment is more sensitive to the cloud droplet number density due to sedimentation than previously thought.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 80
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Wave–current interaction can result in significant inhomogeneities of the ocean surface wave field, including modulation of the spectrum, wave breaking rates, and wave statistics. This study presents novel airborne observations from two experiments: 1) the High-Resolution Air–Sea Interaction (HiRes) experiment, with measurements across an upwelling jet off the coast of Northern California, and 2) an experiment in the Gulf of Mexico with measurements of waves interacting with the Loop Current and associated eddies. The significant wave height and slope varies by up to 30% because of these interactions at both sites, whereas whitecap coverage varies by more than an order of magnitude. Whitecap coverage is well correlated with spectral moments, negatively correlated with the directional spreading, and positively correlated with the saturation. Surface wave statistics measured in the Gulf of Mexico, including wave crest heights and lengths of crests per unit surface area, show good agreement with second-order nonlinear approximations, except over a focal area. Similarly, distributions of wave heights are generally bounded by the generalized Boccotti distribution, except at focal regions where the wave height distribution reaches the Rayleigh distribution with a maximum wave height of 2.55 times the significant wave height, which is much larger than the standard classification for extreme waves. However, theoretical distributions of spatial statistics that account for second-order nonlinearities approximately bound the observed statistics of extreme wave elevations. The results are discussed in the context of improved models of breaking and related air–sea fluxes.
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    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 81
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-09
    Beschreibung: The most basic aspect of cloud formation is condensational growth onto cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). As such, condensational growth of cloud drops is often assumed to be a well-understood process described by the drop growth equation. When this process is represented in models, CCN activate into cloud drops at cloud base, and it is often assumed that drops consist of pure water or that the hygroscopic contribution after drop activation is small because of the inclusion of only small CCN. Drop growth rate in adiabatic ascent in such models is proportional to supersaturation and assumed to be inversely proportional to the drop radius, thereby making the drop spectrum narrow with altitude. However, the present study demonstrates that drop growth on giant sea-salt aerosol particles (GCCN; dry radius 0.5 m) behaves differently. For typical marine stratocumulus updrafts and for drops grown on GCCN with sizes m, these drops typically remain concentrated salt solutions. Because of this, their condensational growth is accelerated, and they rapidly attain precipitation drop sizes through condensation only. Additionally, drops formed on GCCN may also grow by condensation in cloudy downdrafts. The strong effect of condensation on GCCN is important when carried through to calculating rain-rate contribution as a function of aerosol size. GCCN larger than 2 m account for most of the rainfall rate in the modeled precipitating marine stratocumulus.
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  • 82
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-08
    Beschreibung: The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. The positive trend is confirmed with newly reprocessed sea ice data that addressed inconsistency issues in the time series. The variability in sea ice extent and ice area was studied alongside surface ice temperature for the 34-yr period starting in 1981, and the results of the analysis show a strong correlation of −0.94 during the growth season and −0.86 during the melt season. The correlation coefficients are even stronger with a one-month lag in surface temperature at −0.96 during the growth season and −0.98 during the melt season, suggesting that the trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature. The correlation with atmospheric circulation as represented by the southern annular mode (SAM) index appears to be relatively weak. A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 83
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-06
    Beschreibung: Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) can influence climate over land. This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. The authors perform fully coupled ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model in which they prescribe SM or SSTs to the long-term median seasonal cycles. It is found that SM variability overall impacts warm-season land climate to a similar extent as SST variability, in the midlatitudes, tropics, and subtropics. Removing SM or SST variability impacts land climate means and reduces land climate variability at different time scales by 10%–50% (temperature) and 0%–10% (precipitation). Both SM- and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 50%) and for extreme precipitation (up to 20%). These results are qualitatively similar for the present day and the end of the twenty-first century. Removed SM variability affects surface climate through corresponding variations in surface energy fluxes, and this is controlled to first order by the land–atmosphere coupling strength and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In addition, in specific regions SST-induced SM changes alter the “direct” SST-induced climate changes; on the other hand, SM variability is found to slightly affect SSTs in some regions. Nevertheless a large level of independence is found between SM–climate and SST–climate coupling. This highlights the fact that SM conditions can influence land climate variables independently of any SST effects and that (initial) soil moisture anomalies can provide valuable information in (sub)seasonal weather forecasts.
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 84
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-13
    Beschreibung: Climates are changing, yet the everyday implications for societies and cultures are unclear. Until recently, weather and climate (change) have been largely represented quantitatively and discussed at broad spatial and social scales. Qualitative weather research is helping to reconnect weather with its diverse local meanings and to explain how climate change may alter future representational and behavioral understands of weather (herein called “weather-relations”) in the hope of furthering climate change action. Responding to the need for greater research into weather-relations, particularly in industrialized urban areas, this paper examines the role of weather in everyday life in tropical Darwin, Australia. It identifies a willingness among participants to stay “weather-connected” despite challenging weather conditions and access to air conditioning. This willingness is driven by desires to remain acclimatized in order to enhance positive weather sensations, retain outdoor lifestyles, and reduce financial and environmental costs associated with resource-intensive technologies. In delving into weather adjustment strategies that facilitate weather-connectedness along with possible climate change implications, greater potential for weather-relations research is recognized. By drawing attention to weather experiences and understandings alongside resource efficient weather responses, this paper uncovered a substantial capacity among participants to respond sustainably to environmental change. These capacities are the outcome of adjustment practices relating to food, clothing, laundering, physical and outdoor activities, and domestic comfort and a previously unrecognized coping strategy—expressions of tolerance. Findings suggest that by recognizing and fostering existing adjustment capabilities of societies and cultures and the local values that afford their reproduction, communities would be better placed to adapt to future climate change.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Digitale ISSN: 1948-8335
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 85
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: This study reports airborne measurements of atmospheric CO2 column density using a 2-μm double-pulsed integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar. This new 2-μm IPDA lidar offers an alternative approach to measure CO2 column density with unique features. The online frequencies of this lidar can be tuned to 1–6 GHz from the CO2 R30 absorption line peak. It provides high measurement sensitivity to the lower-tropospheric CO2 near the ground surface. This instrument was flown in the spring of 2014 in a NASA B200 aircraft. The results of these test flights clearly demonstrate the measurement capabilities of this lidar instrument. The CO2 column dry mixing ratio is compared to an in situ CO2 measurement by a collocated NOAA flight. The IPDA lidar measurement is determined to be in good agreement with a 0.36% difference, which corresponds to 1.48 ppm. It is the average difference between the IPDA lidar measurements and the NOAA air samples in the flight altitudes from 3 to 6.1 km.
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 86
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-23
    Beschreibung: Anthropogenic heat is an important component of the urban energy budgets that can affect land surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes. Representation of anthropogenic heat in numerical climate modeling systems is therefore important when simulating urban meteorology and climate and has the potential to improve weather forecasts, climate process studies, and energy demand analysis. Here, spatiotemporally dynamic anthropogenic heat data estimated by the Building Effects Parameterization and Building Energy Model (BEP-BEM) are incorporated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model system to investigate its impact on simulation of summertime rainfall in Beijing, China. Simulations of four local rainfall events with and without anthropogenic heat indicate that anthropogenic heat leads to increased rainfall over the urban area. For all four events, anthropogenic heat emission increases sensible heat flux, enhances mixing and turbulent energy transport, lifts PBL height, increases dry static energy, and destabilizes the atmosphere in urban areas through thermal perturbation and strong upward motion during the prestorm period, resulting in enhanced convergence during the major rainfall period. Intensified rainfall leads to greater atmospheric dry-down during the storm and a higher poststorm LCL.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Digitale ISSN: 1525-7541
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 87
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-22
    Beschreibung: In 2006, the statistical postprocessing of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) was implemented to enhance probabilistic guidance. Anomaly forecasting (ANF) is one of the NAEFS products, generated from bias-corrected ensemble forecasts and reanalysis climatology. The extreme forecast index (EFI), based on a raw ensemble forecast and model-based climatology, is another way to build an extreme weather forecast. In this work, the ANF and EFI algorithms are applied to extreme cold temperature and extreme precipitation forecasts during the winter of 2013/14. A highly correlated relationship between the ANF and EFI allows the determination of two sets of thresholds to identify extreme cold and extreme precipitation events for the two algorithms. An EFI of −0.78 (0.687) is approximately equivalent to a −2σ (0.95) ANF for the extreme cold event (extreme precipitation) forecast. The performances of the two algorithms in forecasting extreme cold events are verified against analysis for different model versions, reference climatology, and forecasts. The verification results during the winter of 2013/14 indicate that ANF forecasts more extreme cold events with a slightly higher skill than EFI. The bias-corrected forecast performs much better than the raw forecast. The current upgrade of the GEFS has a beneficial effect on the extreme cold weather forecast. Using the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) as a climate reference gives a slightly better score than the 40-yr reanalysis. The verification methodology is also extended to an extreme precipitation case, showing a broad potential use in the future.
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  • 88
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-27
    Beschreibung: Two theories for observed East Africa drying trends during March–May 1979–2013 are reconciled. Both hypothesize that variations in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) caused East Africa drying. The first invokes a mainly human cause resulting from sensitivity to secular warming of Indo–western Pacific SSTs. The second invokes a mainly natural cause resulting from sensitivity to a strong articulation of ENSO-like Pacific decadal variability involving warming of the western Pacific and cooling of the central Pacific. Historical atmospheric model simulations indicate that observed SST variations contributed significantly to the East Africa drying trend during March–May 1979–2013. By contrast, historical coupled model simulations suggest that external radiative forcing alone, including the ocean’s response to that forcing, did not contribute significantly to East Africa drying. Recognizing that the observed SST variations involved a commingling of natural and anthropogenic effects, this study diagnosed how East African rainfall sensitivity was conditionally dependent on the interplay of those factors. East African rainfall trends in historical coupled models were intercompared between two composites of ENSO-like decadal variability, one operating in the early twentieth century before appreciable global warming and the other in the early twenty-first century of strong global warming. The authors find the coaction of global warming with ENSO-like decadal variability can significantly enhance 35-yr East Africa drying trends relative to when the natural mode of ocean variability acts alone. A human-induced change via its interplay with an extreme articulation of natural variability may thus have been key to Africa drying; however, these results are speculative owing to differences among two independent suites of coupled model ensembles.
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    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
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  • 89
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they were much less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climate model experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPO weakens so that the negative phase IPO after 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century.
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  • 90
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-07-01
    Beschreibung: North Africa is the world’s largest source of dust, a large part of which is transported across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and beyond where it can impact radiation and clouds. Many aspects of this transport and its climate effects remain speculative. The Saharan Aerosol Long-Range Transport and Aerosol–Cloud-Interaction Experiment (SALTRACE; www.pa.op.dlr.de/saltrace) linked ground-based and airborne measurements with remote sensing and modeling techniques to address these issues in a program that took place in 2013/14. Specific objectives were to 1) characterize the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of dust in the Caribbean, 2) quantify the impact of physical and chemical changes (“aging”) on the radiation budget and cloud microphysical processes, 3) investigate the meteorological context of transatlantic dust transport, and 4) assess the roles of removal processes during transport. SALTRACE was a German-led initiative involving scientists from Europe, Cabo Verde, the Caribbean, and the United States. The Falcon research aircraft of the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), equipped with a comprehensive aerosol and wind lidar payload, played a central role. Several major dust outbreaks were studied with 86 h of flight time under different conditions, making it by far the most extensive investigation on long-range transported dust ever made. This article presents an overview of SALTRACE and highlights selected results including data from transatlantic flights in coherent air masses separated by more than 4,000-km distance that enabled measurements of transport effects on dust properties. SALTRACE will improve our knowledge on the role of mineral dust in the climate system and provide data for studies on dust interactions with clouds, radiation, and health.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 91
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-08-01
    Beschreibung: China is developing a new generation of geostationary meteorological satellites called Fengyun-4 (FY-4), which is planned for launch beginning in 2016. Following upon the current FY-2 satellite series, FY-4 will carry four new instruments: the Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI), the Geosynchronous Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS), the Lightning Mapping Imager (LMI), and the Space Environment Package (SEP). The first satellite of the FY-4 series launched on 11 December 2016 is experimental, and the following four or more satellites will be operational. The main objectives of the FY-4 series are to monitor rapidly changing weather systems and to improve warning and forecasting capabilities. The FY-4 measurements are aimed at accomplishing 1) high temporal and spatial resolution imaging in 14 spectral bands from the visible, near-infrared, and infrared (IR) spectral regions; 2) lightning imaging; and 3) high-spectral-resolution IR sounding observations over China and adjacent regions. FY-4 will also enhance the space weather monitoring and warning with SEP. Current products from FY-2 will be improved by FY-4, and a number of new products will also be introduced. FY-4’s sounding and imaging data will be used to improve applications in a wide range of ocean, land, and atmosphere monitoring plus forecasting extreme weather (especially typhoons and thunderstorms); overall, FY-4 will contribute to more accurate understanding and forecasting of China’s weather, climate, environment, and natural disasters. This new generation of Chinese geostationary weather satellites is being developed in parallel with the new generation of geostationary meteorological satellite systems from the international community of satellite providers and is intended to be an important contribution to the global observing system.
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    Thema: Geographie , Physik
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  • 92
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-24
    Beschreibung: Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite rainfall estimates reveal a substantial disagreement between its active [Precipitation Radar (PR)] and passive [TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI)] sensors over certain regions. This study focuses on understanding the role of the synoptic state of atmosphere in these discrepancies over land regions where passive microwave (PMW) retrievals are limited to scattering signals. As such the variability in the relationship between the ice-induced scattering signal and the surface rainfall is examined. Using the Amazon River and central Africa regions as a test bed, it is found that the systematic difference seen between PR and TMI rainfall estimates is well correlated with both the precipitating system structure and the level of its organization. Relying on a clustering technique to group raining scenes into three broad but distinct organizational categories, it is found that, relative to the PR, deep-organized systems are typically overestimated by TMI while the shallower ones are underestimated. Results suggest that the storm organization level can explain up to 50% of the regional systematic difference between the two sensors. Because of its potential for retrieval improvement, the ability to forecast the level of systems organization is tested. The state of the atmosphere is found to favor certain storm types when constrained by CAPE, wind shear, dewpoint depression, and vertical humidity distribution. Among other findings, the observations reveal that the ratio between boundary layer and midtropospheric moisture correlates well with the organization level of convection. If adjusted by the observed PR-to-TMI ratio under a given environment, the differences between PMW and PR rainfall estimates are diminished, at maximum, by 30% in RMSE and by 40% in the mean.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 93
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-15
    Beschreibung: Extreme rainfall events, specifically in urban areas, have dramatic impacts on society and can lead to loss of life and property. Despite these hazards, little is known about the city-scale variability of heavy rainfall events. In the current study, gridded stage IV radar data from 2002 to 2015 are employed to investigate the clustering and the spatial variability of simultaneous rainfall exceedances in the greater New York area. Multivariate clustering based on partitioning around medoids is applied to the extreme rainfall events’ average intensity and areal extent for the 1- and 24-h accumulated rainfall during winter (December–February) and summer (June–August) seasons. The atmospheric teleconnections of the daily extreme event for winter and summer are investigated using compositing of ERA-Interim. For both 1- and 24-h durations, the winter season extreme rainfall events have larger areal extent than the summer season extreme rainfall events. Winter extreme events are associated with deep and organized circulation patterns that lead to more areal extent, and the summer events are associated with localized frontal systems that lead to smaller areal extents. The average intensities of the 1-h extreme rainfall events in summer are much higher than the average intensities of the 1-h extreme rainfall events in winter. A clear spatial demarcation exists within the five boroughs in New York City for winter extreme events. Resultant georeferenced cluster maps can be extremely useful in risk analysis and green infrastructures planning as well as sewer systems’ management at the city scale.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Digitale ISSN: 1525-7541
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 94
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: A Bayesian optimal estimation methodology is applied to retrieve the time-varying ice particle mass–dimensional (M–D) relationships (i.e., M = amDbm) and the associated uncertainties using the in situ data that were collected by the NASA WB-57 during the Midlatitude Airborne Cirrus Properties Experiment (MACPEX) in March and April 2011. The authors utilize the coincident measurements of bulk ice water content and projected cross-sectional area to constrain M–D relationships and estimate the uncertainties. It is demonstrated that the additional information provided by the particle area with respect to size could contribute considerable improvements to the algorithm performance. Extreme variability of M–D properties is found among cases as well as within individual cases, indicating the nondiscrete nature of ice crystal habits within cloud volumes and further suggesting the risk of assuming a constant M–D relationship in different conditions. Relative uncertainties of am are approximately from 50% to 80%, and relative uncertainties of bm range from 6% to 9.5%, which would cause approximately 2.5-dB uncertainty in forward-modeled radar reflectivity or a factor-of-2 uncertainty in ice water content.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 95
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-08-01
    Beschreibung: The Republic of Namibia, located along the arid and semiarid coast of southwest Africa, is highly dependent on reliable forecasts of surface and groundwater storage and fluxes. Since 2009, the University of Oklahoma (OU) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have engaged in a series of exercises with the Namibian Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Forestry to build the capacity to improve the water information available to local decision-makers. These activities have included the calibration and implementation of NASA and OU’s jointly developed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrological model as well as the Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5). Hydrological model output is used to produce forecasts of river stage height, discharge, and soil moisture. To enable broad access to this suite of environmental decision support information, a website, the Namibia Flood Dashboard, hosted on the infrastructure of the Open Science Data Cloud, has been developed. This system enables scientists, ministry officials, nongovernmental organizations, and other interested parties to freely access all available water information produced by the project, including comparisons of NASA satellite imagery to model forecasts of flooding or drought. The local expertise needed to generate and enhance these water information products has been grown through a series of training meetings bringing together national government officials, regional stakeholders, and local university students and faculty. Aided by online training materials, these exercises have resulted in additional capacity-building activities with CREST and EF5 beyond Namibia as well as the initial implementation of a global flood monitoring and forecasting system.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0477
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 96
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-23
    Beschreibung: As NWP and climate models continue to evolve toward finer grid spacing, efforts have been undertaken to better represent urban effects. For this study, the single-layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) of the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) and WRF Model was used to investigate the sensitivity of near-surface air temperatures and energy fluxes to SLUCM parameters in uncoupled (land) and coupled (land–atmosphere) predictions. Output from HRLDAS and WRF was compared with observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and Joint Urban 2003 experiment. Variations in roof albedo (0.04–0.4) produced 40–135 W m−2 changes in net radiation and sensible heat fluxes. Sensible and ground heat fluxes varied by 40–100 W m−2 with changes in roof thermal conductivity (0.05–1.4). The urban fraction was found to be the only SLUCM parameter to significantly impact latent heat fluxes. Near-surface air temperatures, particularly during the daytime, did not show significant variations with SLUCM parameters (remaining within the 0.5-K range). Differences in urban air temperatures due to the change in boundary layer scheme were greater than the temperature changes due to SLUCM parameter variations. The sensitivity of near-surface air temperatures to SLUCM parameters depended on the method used to calculate the skin temperature of the impervious surface. For all simulations, predicted 2-m urban air temperatures were consistently higher than observations, with deviations approaching 8 K during the day and below 3 K at night. These large errors affected the model’s skill in reproducing the diurnal cycle of UHI intensity.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Digitale ISSN: 1558-8432
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 97
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-03-01
    Beschreibung: The response of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to wind stress forcing is investigated from an observational standpoint, using four time series of overturning transports below and relative to 1000 m, overlapping by 3.6 yr. These time series are derived from four mooring arrays located on the western boundary of the North Atlantic: the RAPID Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE) array (42.5°N), the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Line W array (39°N), RAPID–MOC/MOCHA (26.5°N), and the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array (16°N). Using modal decompositions of the analytic cross-correlation between transports and wind stress, the basin-scale wind stress is shown to significantly drive the MOC coherently at four latitudes, on the time scales available for this study. The dominant mode of covariance is interpreted as rapid barotropic oceanic adjustments to wind stress forcing, eventually forming two counterrotating Ekman overturning cells centered on the tropics and subtropical gyre. A second mode of covariance appears related to patterns of wind stress and wind stress curl associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, spinning anomalous horizontal circulations that likely interact with topography to form overturning cells.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 98
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-04-01
    Beschreibung: This paper presents the results of forecasting the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) through the use of satellite-obtained global brightness temperature data with a recently developed nonparametric empirical method. This new method, referred to as kernel analog forecasting, adopts specific indices extracted using the technique of nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis as baseline definitions of the intraseasonal oscillations of interest, which are then extended into forecasts through an iterated weighted averaging scheme that exploits the predictability inherent to those indices. The pattern correlation of the forecasts produced in this manner remains above 0.6 for 50 days for both the MJO and BSISO when 23 yr of training data are used and 37 days for the MJO when 9 yr of data are used.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0469
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 99
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-01
    Beschreibung: Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g., Pacific Ocean). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, this study addresses these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in the statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0485
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 100
    Publikationsdatum: 2017-02-09
    Beschreibung: Climatological characteristics of simulated intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific were explored with a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM20) and a 5-km-mesh regional atmospheric nonhydrostatic model (ANHM5). From the AGCM20 climate runs, 34 intense TCs with a minimum central pressure (MCP) less than or equal to 900 hPa were sampled. Downscaling experiments were conducted with the ANHM5 for each intense TC simulated by the AGCM20. Only 23 developed into TCs with MCP ≤ 900 hPa. Most of the best-track TCs with an MCP ≤ 900 hPa underwent rapid intensification (RI) and attained maximum intensities south of 25°N. The AGCM20 simulated a similar number of intense TCs as the best-track datasets. However, the intense AGCM20 TCs tended to intensify longer and more gradually; only half of them underwent RI. The prolonged gradual intensification resulted in significant northward shifts of the location of maximum intensity compared with the location derived from two best-track datasets. The inner-core structure of AGCM20 TCs exhibited weak and shallow eyewall updrafts with maxima below an altitude of 6 km, while downscaling experiments revealed that most of the intense ANHM5 TCs underwent RI with deep and intense eyewall updrafts and attained their maximum intensity at lower latitudes. The altitudes of updraft maxima simulated by the AGCM20 descended rapidly during the phase of greatest intensification as midlevel warming markedly developed. The change in major processes responsible for precipitation in AGCM20 TCs before and after maximum intensification suggests close relationships between the large-scale cloud scheme and midlevel warming and prolonged gradual intensification.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Digitale ISSN: 1520-0442
    Thema: Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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