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  • Articles  (43)
  • Springer-Nature  (36)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • American Physical Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • 2020-2024  (43)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1965-1969
  • 2024  (43)
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  • Articles  (43)
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  • 2020-2024  (43)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1965-1969
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-01-08
    Description: Ionospheric irregularities are plasma density variations that occur at various altitudes and latitudes and whose size ranges from a few meters to a few hundred kilometers. They can have a negative impact on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), on their positioning accuracy and even cause a signal loss of lock (LoL), a phenomenon for which GNSS receivers can no longer track the satellites' signal. Nowadays, the study of plasma density irregularities is important because many of the crucial infrastructures of our society rely on the efficient operation of these positioning systems. It was recently discovered that, of all possible ionospheric plasma density fluctuations, those in a turbulent state and characterized by extremely high values of the Rate Of change of the electron Density Index appear to be associated with the occurrence of LoL events. The spatial distributions of this class of fluctuations at mid and high latitudes are reconstructed for the first time using data collected on Swarm satellites between July 15th, 2014 and December 31st, 2021, emphasizing their dependence on solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and season. The results unequivocally show that the identified class of plasma fluctuations exhibits spatio-temporal behaviours similar to those of LoL events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 9287
    Description: OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Turbulence ; Swarm constellation ; GPS Loss of Lock ; 01.02. Ionosphere
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-01-12
    Description: Owing to the current lack of plausible and exhaustive physical pre-eruptive models, often volcanologists rely on the observation of monitoring anomalies to track the evolution of volcanic unrest episodes. Taking advantage from the work made in the development of Bayesian Event Trees (BET), here we formalize an entropy-based model to translate the observation of anomalies into probability of a specific volcanic event of interest. The model is quite general and it could be used as a stand-alone eruption forecasting tool or to set up conditional probabilities for methodologies like the BET and of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The proposed model has some important features worth noting: (i) it is rooted in a coherent logic, which gives a physical sense to the heuristic information of volcanologists in terms of entropy; (ii) it is fully transparent and can be established in advance of a crisis, making the results reproducible and revisable, providing a transparent audit trail that reduces the overall degree of subjectivity in communication with civil authorities; (iii) it can be embedded in a unified probabilistic framework, which provides an univocal taxonomy of different kinds of uncertainty affecting the forecast and handles these uncertainties in a formal way. Finally, for the sake of example, we apply the procedure to track the evolution of the 1982–1984 phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5
    Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: In this work, we perform an evaluation of the coverage of the earthquake monitoring network of Taiwan. The capability of a general network is a function of an adequate number of optimally distributed nodes. For this case study, the evaluation is performed with a statistical approach which includes descriptive spatial statistics in combination with point pattern techniques. The spatial distribution of the nodes of the earthquake monitoring network is analyzed in comparison with the distribution of seismicity, completeness magnitude, active seismogenic sources, seismic hazard, and population distribution. All these data can be put in relationship with the objectives of an earthquake monitoring network; therefore, they can be used, in turn, to retrieve information about the consistency of the network itself. In particular, we investigate the “Real-time Seismic Monitoring Network” and the “Strong-Motion Earthquake Observation Network,” each one characterized by its own objectives, and therefore respectively compared with external information related to their purposes such as seismicity, seismogenic sources, seismic hazard, and population distribution. This simple and reliable approach reveals the high quality of the networks established in Taiwan. In general, it is able to provide quantitative information on the coverage of any type of network, identifying possible critical areas and addressing their future development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 643–657
    Description: OST5 Verso un nuovo Monitoraggio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: At active volcanoes recurring eruptive events, erosive processes and collapses modify the edifice morphology and impact monitoring and hazard mitigation. At Etna volcano (Italy) between February and October 2021, 57 paroxysmal events occurred from the South-East Crater (SEC), which is currently its most active summit crater. Strombolian activity and high lava fountains (up to 4 km) fed lava flows towards the east, south and south-west, and caused fallout of ballistics (greater than 1 m in diameter) within 1–2 km from the SEC. The impacted area does not include permanent infrastructure, but it is visited by thousands of tourists. Hence, we rapidly mapped each lava flow before deposits became covered by the next event, for hazard mitigation. The high frequency of the SEC paroxysms necessitated integration of data from three remote sensing platforms with different spatial resolutions. Satellite (Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, PlanetScope, Skysat and Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager) and drone images (visible and thermal) were processed and integrated to extract digital surface models and orthomosaics. Thermal images acquired by a permanent network of cameras of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia were orthorectified using the latest available digital surface model. This multi-sensor analysis allowed compilation of a geodatabase reporting the main geometrical parameters for each lava flow. A posteriori analysis allowed quantification of bulk volumes for the lava flows and the SEC changes and of the dense rock equivalent volume of erupted magma. The analysis of drone-derived digital surface models enabled assessment of the ballistics’ distribution. The developed methodology enabled rapidly and accurate characterisation of frequently occurring effusive events for near real-time risk assessment and hazard communication.
    Description: Published
    Description: 58
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities. In 2023, the sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached record highs. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data); 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data). The Tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s. Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño, the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of ~0.23°C higher than 2022 and an astounding 〉 0.3°C above 2022 values for the second half of 2023. The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.
    Description: Published
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-01-22
    Description: Bridge management is a complex and challenging task at global scale. The main purpose of bridge management is to facilitate the identification of bridge deficiencies in order to carefully plan and execute maintenance operations, and ensure the continued safety of traffic. In 2020, the Italian Ministry of Infrastructure issued mandatory guidelines for risk classification and management, safety assessment and monitoring of bridges. These guidelines rely upon bridge inventory, which includes a number of heterogeneous inspection data organized in different files. This paper presents a hardware and software architecture for the automatic entry of all inspection data (e.g. spatial information, sheets and photos) in a relational spatial database and their visualization through a Desktop and Web GIS (Geographic Information System) application. The procedure is summarized in a new Bridge Management System (BMS), whose main novelty is the full control of the georeferenced infrastructures, with the opportunity of improving the status check and management of bridges and their components. The BMS has been developed using data collected during inspection surveys requested by the Consortium of Sicilian Highways on the conditions of the bridges and viaducts belonging to motorways in Sicily (Italy). The developed system overcomes most of the common limitations in existing BMSs, such as the limited capacity of visualizing geospatial data and the reduced supported data formats, providing a valid Decision Support System in evaluating and prioritizing repair and maintenance actions.
    Description: In press
    Description: OSA1: Variazioni del campo magnetico terrestre, imaging crostale e sicurezza del territorio
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 513-536, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: 〈jats:p〉 For decades, multiple-driver/stressor research has examined interactions among drivers that will undergo large changes in the future: temperature, pH, nutrients, oxygen, pathogens, and more. However, the most commonly used experimental designs—present-versus-future and ANOVA—fail to contribute to general understanding or predictive power. Linking experimental design to process-based mathematical models would help us predict how ecosystems will behave in novel environmental conditions. We review a range of experimental designs and assess the best experimental path toward a predictive ecology. Full factorial response surface, fractional factorial, quadratic response surface, custom, space-filling, and especially optimal and sequential/adaptive designs can help us achieve more valuable scientific goals. Experiments using these designs are challenging to perform with long-lived organisms or at the community and ecosystem levels. But they remain our most promising path toward linking experiments and theory in multiple-driver research and making accurate, useful predictions. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: Palaeointensity data from the Precambrian are key to understanding the timing of the Earth’s Inner Core Nucleation (ICN). Due to the scarcity of data, the ICN timing is still poorly constrained and is thought to have occurred between 2500 to 500 Ma. Numerical dynamo simulation models predict an increase in entropy, a stronger driving force for convection that could affect the field strength and show an anomaly in the palaeointensity record at ICN. We present new estimates of the geomagnetic field intensity (palaeointensity) from the Mid-Mesoproterozoic (1406 ± 1424 Ma) Nova Guarita dyke swarm, in the northern Mato Grosso State (SW Amazon Craton, Brazil). To obtain palaeointensity estimates, we used the non-heating Preisach method, with palaeointensity criteria at the specimen, and site level. Five sites provided accepted palaeointensity results, yielding virtual dipole moment (VDM) estimate of 65 ± 12 ZAm2 at 1416 ± 13 Ma, 53 ± 4 ZAm2 at 1418 ± 3 Ma, 12 ± 2 and 8 ± 2 ZAm2 at 1418 ± 5 Ma, and 71 ± 16 ZAm2 at 1424 ± 16 Ma, thus an average estimate of 43 ± 30 ZAm2 for ~1410 Ma. The estimate is similar to the average VDM data (~50 ZAm2), calculated for the period from 1600 to 1000 Ma. This average represents only a snapshot of the Earth’s magnetic field strength. While the new data are too limited in time to contribute directly to the question of ICN, they nevertheless contribute to constraints useful for assessing numerical simulations of the Mesoproterozoic geodynamo.
    Description: Published
    Description: 161–182
    Description: OSA1: Variazioni del campo magnetico terrestre, imaging crostale e sicurezza del territorio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: On 30 October 2020 at 11:51 UT, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurred in the Dodecanese sea (37.84°N, 26.81°E, 10 km depth) and generated a tsunami with an observed run-up of more than 1 m on the Turkish coasts. Both the earthquake and the tsunami produced acoustic and gravity waves that propagated upward, triggering co-seismic and co-tsunamic ionospheric disturbances. This paper presents a multi-instrumental study of the ionospheric impact of the earthquake and related tsunami based on ionosonde data, ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data and data from DORIS beacons received by Jason3 in the Mediterranean region. Our study focuses on the Total Electron Content to describe the propagation of co-seismic and co-tsunami ionospheric disturbances (CSID, CTID), possibly related to gravity waves triggered by the earthquake and tsunami. We use simultaneous vertical ionosonde soundings to study the interactions between the upper and lower atmosphere, highlighting the detection of acoustic waves generated by the seismic Rayleigh waves reaching the ionosonde locations and propagating vertically up to the ionosphere. The results of this study provide a detailed picture of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere–Ionosphere coupling in the scarcely investigated Mediterranean region and for a relatively weak earthquake.
    Description: Published
    Description: 13
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-01-29
    Description: Volcano geodesy often involves the use of models to explain observed surface deformation. A variety of forward models are used, from analytical point sources to numerical simulations that consider complex magma system geometries, topography, and material properties. Various inversion methods can then be used to relate observed volcano data to models. Ideally, forward models should be verified through intercomparison, to check for implementation errors and quantify the error induced by any approximations used. Additionally, forward models and inversion methods should be validated through tests with synthetic and/or real data, to determine their ability to match data and estimate parameter values within uncertainty. However, to date, there have not been comprehensive verification and validation efforts in volcano geodesy. Here, we report on the first phase of the Drivers of Volcano Deformation (DVD) exercises, which were designed to build community involvement through web-based exercises involving calculations of static elastic displacement around pressurized magma reservoirs. The forward model exercises begin with a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space, then introduce topography, heterogeneous elastic properties, and spheroidal geometries. The inversion exercises provide synthetic noisy surface displacement data for a spherical reservoir in a homogeneous half space and assess consistency in estimates of reservoir location and volume/pressure change. There is variability in the results from both forward modeling and inversions, which highlights the strengths and limitations of different forward models, as well as the importance of inversion method choice and uncertainty quantification. This first phase of the DVD exercises serves as a community resource and will facilitate further efforts to develop standards of reproducibility.
    Description: Published
    Description: 74
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.08. Volcanology ; 04.03. Geodesy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2024-03-27
    Description: At the end of the summer 2021, an increase in CO2 emissions at Vulcano brought an increase in the alert level and, consequently, to the upgrade of the monitoring activities by increasing the number of instruments deployed and the rate of the surveys. One of the new devices installed was a geodetic GNSS mobile network for a real-time and high-frequency monitoring of ground deformation, to increase the detail with respect to the existing permanent network. The mobile stations were initially installed at the northern base of the La Fossa crater, where the highest values of soil degassing were recorded. Two stations were co-located with gravimeters, in order to compare and integrate the data. After this very first period of testing, the mobile GNSS array has been reconfigured, to investigate the mud pool area. Thus, four stations were installed around the degassing area, one of them being in the same site of the gravimeter. Data has been acquired at 1 Hz rate and is used for the weekly reporting to Civil Protection. It was the first experience of a light and quick-to-install geodetic real-time and high-rate GNSS mobile network in this area, and it was the occasion for testing its performance, as well as different approaches for the real-time kinematic (RTK) differential positioning in order to find the most suitable for the ongoing phenomena. Furthermore, direct data communication and archiving in the institutional database have been implemented for immediate querying from the control room tools. We report the experiences collected during the installation phase, site selection, RTK approaches, and ground motion and provide the daily raw data in RINEX format for any future precise postprocessing for the mid- to long-term analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 36
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Deformation ; Satellite geodesy ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.06. Methods ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2024-03-29
    Description: Mt. Etna, in Italy, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, producing several explosive events in recent years. Those eruptions form high eruption columns that often reach the top of the troposphere (and sometimes even the lower part of the stratosphere) and create several disruptions to air traffic, mainly to the Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, which is about 20 NM (~ 37 km; NM = Nautical Miles) away from the summit craters and is located in the main wind direction. In Italy, the institution responsible for volcano monitoring is the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). In 2007, the INGV, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) in Catania was appointed as “State Volcano Observatory” (SVO) and, in 2014, sent the first Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation (VONA) message. Since that moment, several VONA messages have been sent, mainly due to the high frequency of Etna activity. In order to facilitate and speed in the generation and the dispatch of the VONA messages, a computer-assisted procedure has been designed and built to help the work done by the volcanologist on duty and by the two shift workers of the 24/7 Control Room of INGV-OE. Consequently, information on the explosive activity can be quickly provided to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) in Toulouse and national air traffic offices, reducing risks to aviation operations. In this work, we describe how the computer-assisted procedure works, addressing the main advantages and possible improvements. We retain that a similar approach could be easily applied to other volcano observatories worldwide.
    Description: Published
    Description: 39
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Etna volcano ; Monitoring activity ; VONA messages ; Computer-assisted procedure ; Hazard mitigation ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Description: We propose a new fully nonergodic ground motion model for Central Italy, which is one of the most sampled areas in the world after the occurrence of the last seismic sequences of 2009 and 2016–2017. The model predicts 69 ordinates of the Fourier Amplitude Spectrum in the magnitude range 3.2–6.5 and is constrained on a dense set of seismological and geophysical parameters (i.e. stress-drop , shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m, VS,30 and high-frequency attenuation parameter at source and site ) made available from a non-parametric generalized inversion technique (GIT). The aim of this work is to capture the underlying physics of ground motion related to different source energy levels, as well as to the crustal and geological structure of the region, thus providing less uncertain predictions. Calibration is performed using a stepwise regression approach which has the advantage of taking a more complex functional form (advanced model) when all physical parameters are known while returning a simpler form (base model) when physical data are missing. As a result, the advanced model reproduces the reference rock motion of the region in case the site additional proxies are set to their average values (VS,30 = 1100 m/s, =15 ms). We show that the inclusion of the set of physically-based explanatory variables in the regression has a beneficial effect in constraining the uncertainty, leading to a reduction of the high-frequency variability of about 70% on the between-event and 35% on the site-to-site. This reduction can be viewed as the result of the combination of a more effective physical description through the incorporation of the additional proxies and a calibration embedded in a completely nonergodic framework.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4111–4137
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2024-03-19
    Description: Volcano observatories (VOs) around the world are required to maintain surveillance of their volcanoes and inform civil protection and aviation authorities about impending eruptions. They often work through consolidated procedures to respond to volcanic crises in a timely manner and provide a service to the community aimed at reducing the potential impact of an eruption. Within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) framework of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), designated State Volcano Observatories (SVOs) are asked to operate a colour coded system designed to inform the aviation community about the status of a volcano and the expected threats associated. Despite the IAVW documentation defining the different colour-coded levels, operating the aviation colour code in a standardised way is not easy, as sometimes, different SVOs adopt different strategies on how, when, and why to change it. Following two European VOs and Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) workshops, the European VOs agreed to present an overview on how they operate the aviation colour code. The comparative analysis presented here reveals that not all VOs in Europe use this system as part of their operational response, mainly because of a lack of volcanic eruptions since the aviation colour code was officially established, or the absence of a formal designation as an SVO. We also note that the VOs that do regularly use aviation colour code operate it differently depending on the frequency and styles of eruptions, the historical eruptive activity, the nature of the unrest, the monitoring level, institutional norms, previous experiences, and on the agreement they may have with the local Air Transport Navigation providers. This study shows that even though the aviation colour code system was designed to provide a standard, its usage strongly depends on the institutional subjectivity in responding to volcano emergencies. Some common questions have been identified across the different (S)VOs that will need to be addressed by ICAO to have a more harmonised approach and usage of the aviation colour code
    Description: Published
    Description: 23
    Description: OSV4: Preparazione alle crisi vulcaniche
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 417-441, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-03-01
    Description: The genus Phaeocystis is globally distributed, with blooms commonly occurring on continental shelves. This unusual phytoplankter has two major morphologies: solitary cells and cells embedded in a gelatinous matrix. Only colonies form blooms. Their large size (commonly 2 mm but up to 3 cm) and mucilaginous envelope allow the colonies to escape predation, but data are inconsistent as to whether colonies are grazed. Cultured Phaeocystis can also inhibit the growth of co-occurring phytoplankton or the feeding of potential grazers. Colonies and solitary cells use nitrate as a nitrogen source, although solitary cells can also grow on ammonium. Phaeocystis colonies might be a major contributor to carbon flux to depth, but in most cases, colonies are rapidly remineralized in the upper 300 m. The occurrence of large Phaeocystis blooms is often associated with environments with low and highly variable light and high nitrate levels, with Phaeocystis antarctica blooms being linked additionally to high iron availability. Emerging results indicate that different clones of Phaeocystis have substantial genetic plasticity, which may explain its appearance in a variety of environments. Given the evidence of Phaeocystis appearing in new systems, this trend will likely continue in the near future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-03-13
    Description: The Campi Flegrei caldera is characterized by the phenomenon of bradyseism, as evidenced by stratigraphic records of alternate oceanic and continental sediments dating back over a thousand years. Since 2005, the caldera has been in a phase of unrest, which is increasing volcanic deformations and associated seismicity around the region, resulting in a growing concern over the dense population in the inhabitation. Recent studies have highlighted that the caldera dynamics are driven by a combination of endogenous processes and modulation phenomena induced by exogenous processes, e.g., rainfall, atmospheric pressure, and tidal loading. Although the complex feedback mechanisms of both endogenous and exogenous processes are still under debate, the present study is focused on the increased potential of modulation due to exogenous processes with the increase or evolution in the degree of inflation of the magma chamber. Specifically, Campi Flegrei volcanic system shows sensitivity to seasonal hydrological cycles during slower rates of inflation and to short-period tidal modulations during higher rates of inflation. The observed seasonal modulations of seismic activity are explained in terms of water infiltration into the shallow aquifers, basins, and vent depression system of the caldera. The rainfall-induced pore pressure build-up also favours the instability of the brittle cap rock, promoting seismicity. In addition, this study suggests that the tidal loadings provide horizontal NS extensions to the mostly NW–SE, NE–SW, and EW-oriented scattered fractures and further contribute towards fracture propagation. During this process, a cyclic opening and sealing of fractures by volatile outgassing and silicate settling may, respectively, produce the episodic behaviour of the seismicity. The seismicity in relation to exogenous processes imposed by seasonal rainfall and tidal loadings shows that the degree of correlation depends on the different rates of inflation. The long-period seasonal modulations and short-period tidal modulations during the evolution of the degree of inflation are finally interpreted in the framework of the fault resonance destabilization model, under rateand- state dependant frictional formalism.
    Description: Published
    Description: 22
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Bradyseism ; Inflation ; Endogenous and exogenous process ; Fault resonance ; Campi Flegrei Caldera ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: A comprehensive understanding of the processes that occur during magmatic storage and pre-eruptive ascent—and of their associated timescales—is critical to identifying potential precursory signals, and to developing robust volcano early-warning systems. Stromboli’s persistent activity comprises continuous degassing and explosive activity that ranges from hourly, low-intensity “normal” activity to occasional, more violent, paroxysmal activity. While the magma source processes that drive normal and paroxysmal activity are reasonably constrained, eruptive activity intermediate in magnitude and intensity (i.e., major explosions) remains elusive in terms of classification, source region, and pre-eruptive timescales. Here, we investigate the 19 July 2020 major explosion that geophysical parameters place at the upper limit of the major explosions field, close to small-scale paroxysms such as the 2003 and 2007 events. The geochemical signatures of matrix glass, olivine, melt inclusions, and embayments—integrated with gas measurements—highlight important differences in eruption source, ascent behaviour, and pre-eruptive timescales of the studied event when compared to paroxysms. Melt inclusion volatile contents identify that magma rise begins from a slightly shallower source (~9.5 km below sea level, b.s.l.) than for paroxysms (11.4 km b.s.l.), with the activation of a shallower ponding zone at 5–6 km b.s.l.. This, in combination with intermediate matrix glass compositions, suggests complex ascent behaviour, characterised by CO2 buffering in the deep ponding region and magma self-mixing in the shallower zone. Fe–Mg-diffusion modelling in olivine indicates a system perturbation start- ing ~20–25 days before eruption onset, in agreement with the timescale of volcanic gas CO2/SO2 ratio changes observed in the plume, and significantly shorter than that observed prior to paroxysms (~4 months). The geochemical dataset provides insights into the processes controlling the steady-state conditions and the broad spectra in eruption magnitude and intensity at Stromboli and bears important implications for eruption forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 34
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Open-conduit volcano ; Major explosions ; Olivine ; Melt inclusions ; CO2 flux ; Stromboli ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: Seafloor deformation monitoring is now routinely performed in the marine sector of the Campi Flegrei volcanic area (Southern Italy). The MEDUSA infrastructure is formed by four buoys deployed at a water depth ranging from 40 to 96 m, and equipped with cGPS receivers, accelerometers and magnetic compasses to monitor the buoy status and a seafloor module with a bottom pressure recorder and other onboard instruments. The analysis of the time series data acquired by the MEDUSA monitoring infrastructure system allows to study the seafloor deformation in the Campi Flegrei caldera with geodetic accuracy. In a previous work, we show that the time series acquired by the Campi Flegrei cGPS onland network and MEDUSA over the period 2017–2020 are in good agreement with the ground deformation field predicted by a Mogi model which is widely used to describe the observed deformation of an active volcano in terms of magma intrusion. Only for one of the buoys, CFBA (A), the data differ significantly from the model prediction, at a level of 6.9 σ and of 23.7 σ for the seafloor horizontal speed and direction, respectively. For this reason, we devised a new method to reconstruct the horizontal sea bottom displacement considering in the analysis both cGPS and compass data. The method, applied to the CFBA buoy measurements and validated also on the CFBC (C) buoy, uses compass data to correct cGPS positions accounting for the pole inclination. Including also systematic errors, the internal consistency, always within ∼ 3 σ for the speed and ∼ 2 σ for the angle, between the results derived for different maximum inclinations of the buoy pole (up to 3.5◦) indicates that the method allows to significantly reduce the impact of the pole inclination which, if not properly taken into account, can alter the estimation of the horizontal seafloor deformation. In particular, we find a good convergence of the retrieved velocity and deformation angle as we include in the analysis data from increasing values of the buoy pole inclination. Taking the result derived assuming the maximum allowed cutoff and accounting for statistical and systematic errors, we found a speed v = (3.521 ± 0.039 (stat) ± 0.352 (syst)) cm/yr and a deformation direction angle α = (−115.159 ± 0.670 (stat) ± 7.630 (syst))◦ (statistical errors at 1 σ quoted from the rms of their values, main systematic errors added linearly). The relative impact of the main potential systematic (statistical) effects increases (decreases) with the cutoff. Our analysis provides a horizontal speed consistent with the model at a level of 5.2 σ (stat only) or of 0.5 σ (stat and syst added linearly), and a deformation angle consistent with the model at 4.3 σ level (stat only) or at 0.3 σ level (stat and syst added linearly). Correspondingly, the module of the vectorial difference between the velocity retrieved from the data and the velocity of the adopted Mogi model diminishes by a factor of 7.65 ± 1.23 (stat) or ± 5.78 (stat + syst) with respect to the previous work. A list of potential improvements to be implemented in the system and instruments is also discussed.
    Description: Published
    Description: 62
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: The concept of macroseismic intensity arose with the purpose of measuring the strength of an earthquake by the effects it causes on buildings, people, and domestic furnishings. From this perspective, buildings can be considered seismic sensors that record the shaking. Early scales were conceived at a time when buildings were mainly in masonry and therefore they could be used as markers of the intensity in case of earthquakes. Indeed, since they were fairly homogeneous, their level of damage could be considered as an indicator of the shak- ing level. In recent decades, the evolution of construction techniques have made the MCS scale unsuitable for damage assessment of buildings of various resistance. To overcome this problem the EMS-98 scale was designed. Because the MCS scale is still used in Italy, even in the presence of many reinforced concrete buildings, the purpose of this work is to show that the EMS-98 is the most suitable tool for assessing intensity as it is more consist- ent with the built environment. Theoretical and real intensity assessments, by both MCS and EMS-98, have been determined and compared, showing that nowadays intensity is a function of the vulnerability. MCS and EMS-98 would be comparable only when the build- ing stock is composed of very vulnerable edifices (generally class A). Finally, thanks to the similarity of the two scales for old and vulnerable buildings, EMS-98 appears fully adequate to investigate historical earthquakes and represents a powerful tool to ensure con- tinuity among earthquakes of different epochs.
    Description: Open access funding provided by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia within the CRUI- CARE Agreement. The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4167–4189
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Intensity ; European Macroseismic Scale ; Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg scale ; Vulnerability ; damage ; historical earthquakes ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2024-04-08
    Description: The area surrounding the dismissed mine of Sos Enattos (Sardinia, Italy) is the Italian candidate site for hosting Einstein Telescope (ET), the third-generation gravitational wave (GW) observatory. One of the goals of ET is to extend the sensitivity down to frequencies well below those currently achieved by GW detectors, i.e. down to 2 Hz. In the bandwidth [1,10] Hz, the seismic noise of anthropogenic origin is expected to represent the major perturbation to the operation of the infrastructure, and the site that will host the future detector must fulfill stringent requirements on seismic disturbances. In this paper we describe the operation of a temporary, 15-element, seismic array deployed in close proximity to the mine. Signals of anthropogenic origin have a transient nature, and their spectra are characterized by a wide spectral lobe spanning the [3,20] Hz frequency interval. Superimposed to this wide lobe are narrow spectral peaks within the [3,8] Hz frequency range. Results from slowness analyses suggest that the origin of these peaks is related to vehicle traffic along the main road running east of the mine. Exploiting the correlation properties of seismic noise, we derive a dispersion curve for Rayleigh waves, which is then inverted for a shallow velocity structure down to depths of 150 m. This data, which is consistent with that derived from analysis of a quarry blast, provide a first assessment of the elastic properties of the rock materials at the site candidate to hosting ET.
    Description: Published
    Description: 793
    Description: OST5 Verso un nuovo Monitoraggio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: seismic noise ; Einstein Telescope
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2024-04-09
    Description: The South-East Crater (SEC) at Mt. Etna started a period of lava fountaining in December 2020, producing over 60 paroxysms until February 2022. The activity had an intense sequence from February 16 to April 1, 2021, totaling 17 paroxysmal events separated by repose times varying from 1 to 7 days. The eruptive sequence was extensively monitored, providing a unique opportunity to relate the chemistry and texture of the erupted products to eruption dynamics. We investigate the temporal evolution of the magmatic system through this eruptive sequence by quantifying variations in the composition and texture of clinopyroxene. Clinopyroxene major element transects across crystals from five representative lava fountains allow us to determine the relative proportions of deep versus shallow-stored magmas that fed these events. We use hierarchical clustering (HC), an unsupervised machine learning technique, to objectively identify clinopyroxene compositional clusters and their variations during this intense eruptive phase. Our results show that variations of monitoring parameters and eruption intensity are expressed in the mineral record both as changes in cluster proportions and the chemical complexity of single crystals. We also apply random forest thermobarometry to relate each cluster to P-T conditions of formation. We suggest that the February-April 2021 eruptive sequence was sustained by the injection of a hotter and deeper magma into a storage area at 1-3 kbar, where it mixed with a slightly more evolved magma. The February 28 episode emitted the most mafic magma, in association with the highest mean lava fountain height and highest time-averaged discharge rate, which make it the peak of the analyzed eruptive interval. Our results show that after this episode, the deep magma supply decreased and the erupted magma become gradually more chemically evolved, with a lower time-average discharge rate and fountain height. We propose this approach as a means to rapidly, objectively, and effectively link petrological and geophysical/geochemical monitoring during ongoing eruptions. We anticipate that the systematic application of this approach will serve to shed light on the magmatic processes controlling the evolution of ongoing eruptions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 33
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Clinopyroxene; Hierarchical clustering; Mineral stratigraphy; Random forest machine learning; Thermobarometry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Sea level rise (SLR) is among the major climate change effects threating the coasts of the Mediterranean basin, which are increasingly exposed to coastal flooding, especially along the low lying coastal plains, river deltas, lagoons and reclama- tion areas. Coastal erosion, beach retreat and marine flooding are already causing unprecedented environmental and socio- economic impacts on coastal populations. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) these effects are expected to worsen by 2100 and beyond with a projected global SLR up to about 1 m above the current level. This study provides an overview of the Mediterranean basin, focusing on the vulnerable city of Venice, which is particularly exposed to marine flooding due to SLR and land subsidence. We show the current and future sea level trend as well as a flooding scenarios in the absence of the Experimental Electromechanical Module (MoSE), which is protecting the city of Venice since 2020. To understand the awareness of citizens in Venice to address SLR, we have engaged a group of stakeholders through a structured participatory process to develop solution-oriented, case-specific and site-specific Policy Tools. Our results show that the Policy Tools contain relevant, effective and implementable actions stemming from stakeholder interaction and consensus building, identifying relevant issues that should be considered for SLR adaptation policies. A more extensive participation in public processes is required to materialize the Policy Tools into concrete actions to help vulnerable areas adapt to the expected SLR by the end of this century.
    Description: In press
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 24
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: On 2 December 2020 10:54 UTC a shallow earthquake of MW (NOA) = 4.6 occurred near the village of Kallithea (to the east of Thiva), central Greece, which, despite its modest size, was locally damaging. Using InSAR and GNSS data, we mapped a permanent change on the ground surface, i.e., a subsidence of 7 cm. Our geodetic inversion modelling indicates that the rupture occurred on a WNW–ESE striking, SSW-dipping normal fault, with a dip-angle of ~ 54°. The maximum slip value was 0.35 m, which was reached at a depth of about 1100 m. The analysis of broadband seismological data also provided kinematic source parameters such as moment magnitude MW = 4.6 (± 0.1), rupture area 6.3 km2 and mean slip 0.16 m, which agree with the values obtained from the geodetic model. The effects of the earthquake were disproportionate to its moderate magnitude, probably due to its unusually shallow depth (slip centroid at 1.1 km) and the high efficiency of the earthquake (radiation efficiency  = 0.62). The geodetic data inversion also indicates that within the uncertainty limits of the technique, three scenarios are possible (a) the earthquake responsible for the mapped surface deformation may have occurred on a ~ 2-km long, blind normal fault different from the well-known active Kallithea normal fault or (b) could have occurred along a secondary fault that branches off the Kallithea fault or (c) it may have occurred along the Kallithea fault itself, but with its geometrical configuration could not be modelled with available data. We have also concluded that with a high dip-angle Kallithea Fault forward model it is not possible to fit the geodetic data. The rupture initiated at a very shallow depth (1.1 km) and it could not propagate deeper possibly because of a structural barrier down-dip. The 2020 event near Kallithea highlighted the structural complexity in this region of the Asopos Rift valley as the reactivation of the WNW–ESE structures indicates their significant role in strain accommodation and that they still represent a seismic hazard for this region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1523–1541
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: Fallout volcanic deposits of Somma- Vesuvius (Campania, southern Italy), characterized by the presence of layers with contrasting textural and hydraulic properties, are frequently affected by shallow landslides during rainwater infiltration. The soils of the stratigraphic sequence present intra- particle pores, originated by the gases escaped during magma decompression in the volcanic conduit, thus are characterized by double porosity (i.e., intraparticle and interparticle pores), which is expected to affect their hydraulic behaviour, and to play a key role in rainwater infiltration through layered deposits. To understand the effect of double porosity on the hydraulic behaviour of the involved soils, controlled experiments have been carried out in an infiltration column. The experimental apparatus is provided with newly designed non-invasive Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes, not buried in the investigated soil layers so as to minimize disturbance to the flow, allowing water content measurement during vertical flow processes. Specifically, transient flow experiments are carried out through reconstituted specimens of black scoriae and grey pumices, both loose pyroclastic granular soils from fallout deposits of Somma-Vesuvius, featuring double porosity with different pore size distributions, that were estimated by X-ray tomography and Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry. The experimental results highlight the effects of the double porosity and clearly indicate the different behaviour of the two soils during wetting and drying processes, mainly related to the different dimensions of intraparticle pores.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3327-3342
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-05-21
    Description: We present horizontal ground motion predictions at a soft site in the Kumamoto alluvial plain for the Mj 5.9 and Mj 6.5 Kumamoto earthquakes of April 2016, in the framework of an international blind prediction exercise. Such predictions were obtained by leveraging all available information which included: (i) analysis of earthquake ground motions; (ii) processing of ambient vibration data (AMV); and (iii) 1D ground response analysis. Spectral analysis of earthquake ground-motion data were used to obtain empirical estimates of the prediction site amplification function, with evidence of an amplification peak at about 1.2 Hz. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio analysis of AMV confirmed this resonance frequency and pointed out also a low-frequency resonance around 0.3 Hz at the prediction site. AMV were then processed by cross-correlation, modified spatial autocorrelation and high-resolution beamforming methods to retrieve the 1D shear-wave velocity (Vs) structure at the prediction site by joint inversion of surface-wave dispersion and ellipticity curves. The use of low frequency dispersion curve and ellipticity data allowed to retrieve a reference Vs profile down to few thousand meters depth which was then used to perform 1D equivalent-linear simulations of the M 5.9 event, and both equivalent-linear and nonlinear simulations of the M 6.5 event at the target site. Adopting quantitative goodness-of-fit metrics based on time–frequency representation of the signals, we obtained fair-to-good agreement between 1D predictions and observations for the Mj 6.5 earthquake and a poor agreement for the Mj 5.9 earthquake. In terms of acceleration response spectra, while ground-motion overpredictions were obtained for the Mj 5.9 event, simulated ground motions for the Mj 6.5 earthquake severely underestimate the observations, especially those obtained by the nonlinear approach.
    Description: stituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 105
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology ; 04.02. Exploration geophysics
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-05-16
    Description: Radon measurements in soil gases were carried out along the Tyrrhenian margin of north-eastern Sicily (southern Apennines of Italy), one of the most tectonically and seismically active areas within the central Mediterranean region. The collected data highlight an ~ NW–SE oriented zone located to the south of the Milazzo Peninsula marked by intense soil radon degassing. Concentrations of 222Rn and 220Rn were derived to be in the range of 0.69–81.3 kBq m− 3 and 2.63–123.48 kBq m− 3, respectively. The widespread radon release seems to be induced by the uprising of deep-originated fluids along faults and joints, and it is favoured by the high permeability of the outcropping alluvial Quaternary sediments. Moreover, the potential tectonic structure promoting the soil radon degassing may act as the “silent” on-land prolongation of the Vulcano-Milazzo fault zone (VMFZ), a transtensional tectonic element located in the Gulf of Patti and belonging to the Aeolian–Tindari– Letojanni System (ATLFS). The collected results are in accordance with previous studies showing the close relationship between regional degassing and tectonic activity. Periodical and continuous monitoring of radon emission over the area is considered of basic importance to better assess the radiological/health hazard for the population, which in this study was primarily evaluated from low to moderate in terms of first-level screening, as well as in view of possible development of the seismogenic process that can intensify the releasing of endogenous fluids.
    Description: Published
    Description: 273
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Natural radioactivity ; Soil radon degassing ; Radiological hazard ; Deep-originated volatiles
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-05-17
    Description: The rapid development of Auckland City in New Zealand from an initial rural settlement to a global urban hub produced a characteristic footprint on the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This process was facilitated by increased anthropogenic activity that has resulted in the deterioration and destruction of many volcanic landforms and caused severe archaeological, cultural, geological and educational losses in an alarmingly short timescale. The AVF has 53 volcanic centres, and of these, 17% are classified as intact, 28% are partially intact, 30% are partially destroyed, and 25% are destroyed (including 13% that have no trace left). Based on surface area, approximately 40% of volcanic deposits in the AVF have been lost. The most common causes for impacts are public land use, quarrying and urban development. Regardless, there is significant potential to be found in the balance between the losses and gains of anthropogenic impacts on volcanic landforms. In the AVF and worldwide, geological studies have often been assisted by the presence of outcrops created by quarrying, mining, transport infrastructure and other modifications of volcanic landforms. Areas of significant volcanic geoheritage worldwide are often linked with these impacted volcanoes, and the information gained from these geoheritage areas assists in the management of geodiversity and geoeducation. Several volcanic centres are currently at risk of further destruction in the near future (Crater Hill, Waitomokia, Maugataketake, Kohuroa, Three Kings, St Heliers and McLaughlins Mt) and should be prioritised for any possible research before it is too late. We propose that a geological assessment should be a requirement before and, if possible, during any land development on or near a volcanic landform. Allowing access to scientists through the course of development in areas with volcanic landforms would, in turn, aid public and governing bodies in decision-making for the future of the city and its volcanoes in terms of increased knowledge of volcanic mechanisms of the AVF and awareness of the potential associated hazards.
    Description: Published
    Description: 131
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Description: Current understanding of the kinetic-scale turbulence in weakly collisional plasmas still remains elusive. We employ a general framework in which the turbulent energy transfer is envisioned as a scale-to-scale Langevin process. Fluctuations in the sub-ion range show a global scale invariance, thus suggesting a homogeneous energy repartition. In this Letter, we interpret such a feature by linking the drift term of the Langevin equation to scaling properties of fluctuations. Theoretical expectations are verified on solar wind observations and numerical simulations, thus giving relevance to the proposed framework for understanding kinetic-scale turbulence in space plasmas.
    Description: Published
    Description: L042014
    Description: OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spaziale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Description: Archaeological sites may be exposed to different types of risks related to wars, natural phenomena, and illicit human activities. Quantitative data on the type and extent of the damages and destructions suffered by these sites are of primary importance for their reparation and the planning of conservation and defence actions. The Apurlec Monumental Archaeological Complex (about seventh–fourteenth century AD, Peru, “Intangible and Essential Heritage” of the Peruvian Ministry of Culture) includes platforms, canals, and rectangular ceremonial/administrative enclosures. Between June and August 2021, Apurlec has been affected by a partial destruction of its southern sector. Here we present the results of two UAV photogrammetric surveys conducted before (23 January 2021) and after (30 August 2021) the destructive event. The comparison of the orthoimages and the Digital Surface Models obtained form the two surveys allow us to detect illicit activities as earth removal to collect construction material, creation of cultivable areas, and steal manufacts from archeological excavations. We calculate that the area covered by the destruction is 121,665 m2 (perimeter of about 2 km2) the removed material amount to 401,513.5 m3, a value corresponding to a mass of about 702,648.63 ton. The post-destruction topography is lower of about 3.3 m with respect to the original one. Our anytical and metholodological approach could be extended to other archeological sites potentially exposed to anthropic and natural hazards.
    Description: Published
    Description: 110
    Description: OSA2: Evoluzione climatica: effetti e loro mitigazione
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: The determination of ground motion is crucial to plan the appropriate emergency activities, especially in areas characterised by an intense seismic history like the Italian peninsula. Ground motion assessment is generally based on the seismological parameters reported in the instrumental and parametric seismic catalogues. Therefore, the computation of shaking scenarios of historical earthquakes is very challenging, due to the poorly constrained variables (i.e., magnitudes, epicentral location, seismogenic sources), derived from the macroseismic intensity. In this study, we propose a novel approach to investigate the location and parametrization of the seismogenic sources of historical earthquakes and derive shaking scenarios. To this aim, the ground motion of two historical events, the Fabriano (1741, Mw = 6.1, Imax IX MCS) and Camerino (1799, Mw = 6.1, Imax IX–X MCS) earthquakes is simulated. In order to include the site response, a Vs,30 map of the Umbria and Marche regions is created from near-surface data. Different causative faults solutions are tested, finally discussing the ideal seismogenic source based on the residual analysis between observed and simulated macroseismic intensities. The resultant shaking scenarios of the two events are obtained by integrating observed intensities and simulations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5809–5830
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: Today, carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is the most ambitious challenge to mitigate climate changes. Basalt rocks are abundant on the Earth's surface (≈ 10%) and very abundant in the ocean floors and subaerial environments. Glassy matrix and minerals constituting these rocks contain metals (Ca2+, Mg2+, Fe2+) that can react with carbonic acid to form metal carbonates (CaCO3, MgO3 and FeCO3). Here, we present a data compilation of the chemical composition of waters circulating in basalt aquifers worldwide and the results of simple basalt-water-CO2 experiments. Induced or naturally occurring weathering of basalts rocks release elements in waters and elemental concentration is closely dependent on water CO2 concentration (and hence on water pH). We also performed two series of experiments where basaltic rock powder interacts with CO2-charged waters for one month at room temperature. Laboratory experiments evidenced that in the first stages of water-rock interaction, the high content of CO2 dissolved in water accelerates the basalt weathering process, releasing in the water not only elements that can form carbonate minerals but also other elements, which depending on their concentration can be essential or toxic for life. Relative mobility of elements such as Fe and Al, together with rare earth elements, increases at low pH conditions, while it decreases notably at neutral pH conditions. The comparison between experimental findings and natural evidence allowed to better understand the geochemical processes in basaltic aquifers hosted in active and inactive volcanic systems and to discuss these findings in light of the potential environmental impact of CO2 storage in mafic and ultramafic rocks.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: CO2 storage in mafic rocks; ; Element mobility in groundwaters; ; Rock-water-CO2 interaction processes
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2024-05-02
    Description: We used hydrological and geodetic observations to characterize the effects of hydrological forcing on the displacements observed by GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements collected by stations located in the karst area of the Matese massif (Apennines, central-southern Italy). The latter is one of the main karst massifs of the central-southern Apennines, characterized by steep slopes, high mountain peaks (up to 2050 m a.s.l.), and wide endorheic areas, playing a fundamental role in recharging the large groundwater resource of the massif. Integrated statistical analysis of rainfall and spring discharge time series provided insight into timescales characterizing the hydrological dynamic of the Matese massif, highlighting how hydraulic conditions of the water table at a specific time mainly depend on long antecedent periods of rainfall. Nevertheless, the intense daily rainfall occurring during the wet season is responsible for the abrupt increase of the discharge of the Matese’s springs, which show a typical karst behavior. Statistical analyses of time series show robust correlations between hydrological conditions of the karst aquifer and GPS displacements observed at stations placed over and around the massif. We find that the observed outward and inward deformations of the massif (horizontal dilatation and contraction) are controlled by the water table variations, which are in turn controlled by the temporal variations of the groundwater recharge due to rainfall. The detected deformation patterns are intimately related to the seasonal and multi-year characteristics of the recharge/discharge processes and allowed us to track with geodetic measurements the different phases of the water cycle in the karst aquifer of the Matese massif.
    Description: Published
    Description: 240
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Hydrological deformation
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-05-02
    Description: The study of ground resonances is important to assess seismic site amplification and to infer information on the geometrical and mechanical properties of the resonating structures. 1D- and 2D-type resonances imply different dynamic behavior that can be distinguished by inspecting the individual spectral components of single-station microtremor measurements. Typically, 2D resonance modes develop along cross-sections of deep sediment-filled val- leys and consist of longitudinal, transverse and vertical modes that can be identified as spectral peaks when ground motion is recorded parallel to the axes of the valley. In the case of more complex geometries, such as sedimentary basins, resonance modes are more difficult to predict and depend on the unknown complexity of the buried bedrock geometry. We show how a simple signal rotation procedure applied to single-station microtremor recordings reveals the underlying 2D resonance pattern. The method allows assessing the axes of motion of buried geological structures and identifying 2D resonance modes along these axes. Their directionality, frequency and amplitude features are then analyzed to extract information on the bedrock geometry. We test our method in the Bolzano alluvial-sedimentary basin and we observe that apparently complicated resonance patterns may be simplified by locally referring to the simplest description of the phenomenon as 2D resonance of a valley slice. The bedrock morphology can be decom- posed into 2D-like geometries, i.e., excavated channels, and the observed resonances develop within cross-sections of these channels.
    Description: Published
    Description: 74
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-05-03
    Description: In recent years, artificial intelligence in geosciences is spreading more and more, thanks to the availability of a large amount of data. In particular, the development of automatic raingauges networks allows to get rainfall data and makes these techniques effective, even if the performance of artificial intelligence models is a consequence of the coherency and quality of the input data. In this work, we intended to provide machine learning models capable of predicting rainfall data starting from the values of the nearest raingauges at one historic time point. Moreover, we investigated the influence of the anomalous input data on the prediction of rainfall data. We pursued these goals by applying machine learning models based on Linear Regression, LSTM and CNN architectures to several raingauges in Tuscany (central Italy). More than 75% of the cases show an R2 higher than 0.65 and a MAE lower than 4 mm. As expected, we emphasized a strong influence of the input data on the prediction capacity of the models. We quantified the model inaccuracy using the Pearson's correlation. Measurement anomalies in time series cause major errors in deep learning models. These anomalous data may be due to several factors such as temporary malfunctions of raingauges or weather conditions. We showed that, in both cases, the data-driven model features could highlight these situations, allowing a better management of the raingauges network and rainfall databases.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3717-3728
    Description: OSA2: Evoluzione climatica: effetti e loro mitigazione
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: Determining the time spans of processes related to the assembly of eruptible magma at active volcanoes is fundamental to understand magma chamber dynamics and assess volcanic hazard. This information can be recorded in the chemical zoning of crystals. Nevertheless, this kind of study is still poorly employed for the active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area (Southern Italy), in particular, for Ischia island where the risk is extremely high and this information can provide the basis for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For these reasons, we acquired chemical composition on clinopyroxene crystals erupted at Ischia during the Zaro eruption (6.6 ± 2.2 ka) and performed numerical simulations of the input of mafic magma into a trachytic reservoir, in order to investigate various aspects of pre-eruptive dynamics occurring at different timescales. This event emplaced a ~ 0.1 km3 lava complex, in which the main trachytic lava flows host abundant mafic to felsic enclaves. Previous petrological investigation suggested that mafic magma(s) mixed/mingled with a trachytic one, before the eruption. In this work, the clinopyroxene zoning patterns depict the growth of crystals in different magmatic environments, recording sequential changes occurred in the plumbing system before the eruption. The evolution of the plumbing system involved a hierarchy of timescales: a few hours for magma mingling caused by mafic recharge(s) and likely occurred multiple times over a decade during which a dominant magmatic environment was sustained before the eruption. Such timescales must be considered in volcanic hazard assessment at Ischia and similar active volcanoes in densely populated areas.
    Description: Published
    Description: 54
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 38
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: In 2021, more than 50 paroxysmal episodes occurred at the South-East Crater (SEC) of Mt Etna, Italy. The 23–24 March lava fountain was one of the longest episodes and began with weak Strombolian explosions, gradually transitioning to lava fountaining. The eruption intensity then dropped more slowly than in previous episodes, resulting in pulsating Strombolian explosions dominated by ash emission. Thirty-four tephra samples were used to reconstruct the fallout dispersal and estimate the total erupted mass. Grain size, textural, petrological and geochemical analyses indicate different features and were compared with the gas phase ( SO2 and HCl) in the volcanic plume. By applying stochastic global optimization to simulations of the temporal evolution of the eruption column height and tephra dispersal and deposition, the total erupted mass retrieved (6.76 × 108 kg) matches well the total erupted mass estimation by the ground-based deposit (8.03 ± 2.38 × 108 kg), reducing the column height throughout the episode from 6.44 to 4.5 km above sea level and resulting in a mass eruption rate ranging from 1.96 × 105 to 8.18 × 103 kg/s. The unusual duration of the March episode and the characteristics of the erupted products point to the change in explosive style and magma fragmentation from fountaining to ash emission phases, associated with a slower magma supply inducing a change in magma rheology and a final, prolonged ash generation. Furthermore, this study showed that using observational data and the variation in eruption source parameters for numerical simulations can improve the accuracy of predicting the dispersal plume, thus mitigating the potential impact of longer paroxysmal episodes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 56
    Description: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2024-06-20
    Description: The Azores archipelago, situated east of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, comprises volcanic islands arranged along sub-parallel spreading systems and rests on a thick oceanic crust. Magma is supplied directly from the roots of the volcanic systems. Located at or nearby the boundary between the crust and the mantle, they consist of mafic cumulates and mafic mush layers. This work focuses on tephra samples and a submarine lava younger than 40.000 years, collected from both central volcanoes and fissure zones. Our report details a new dataset of major, trace, and volatile elements analysed in glassy melt inclusions trapped in olivine (Fo75.8–85.6) which are extracted from cumulative bodies at the vicinity of the crust-mantle boundary. Their compositions cover a range from subalkaline to mildly alkaline basalt, and trachybasalt, which match those of Azores lavas. They registered a chemical evolution through fractional crystallisation of olivine alone, as well as olivine and clinopyroxene, as both the FeOt/MgO (1.4–3.1) and CaO/Al2O3 (0.4–1.0) ratios of the melt decrease. Incompatible element ratios of Zr (40–352 ppm), Ba (135–612 ppm), and Rb (5–77 ppm), as compared to Nb (5–82 ppm), exhibit variability within a limited but significant range of values. The ranges in the Nb/Zr, Ba/Nb and Rb/Nb ratios recorded by melt inclusions possibly reveal distinct geochemical sources (at least two), and mixing between partial melts as they move upward. The halogen signature is characteristic of the shallow mantle. The majority of melt inclusions show Cl/K ratio (0.06) similar to E-MORB, although some of them are comparable to N-MORB (Cl/K = 0.03). Their F/Nd ratio may achieve a rather high value (27.8).
    Description: Published
    Description: 64
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: This study aims at developing new macroseismic intensity attenuation models valid for Italy by exploiting the most updated macroseismic dataset and earthquakes catalogue, as well as the information obtained from a critical analysis of the most recent models in the literature. Several different attenuation models have been calibrated as a function of the moment magnitude (Mw) and epicentral distance from 16,260 intensity data points, that are related to 119 earthquakes occurred after 1900. According to trends and residuals analysis, the preferred calibrated intensity attenuation function is a Log-Linear model for epicentral distance (Repi in km) and a linear model for Mw as: I(MCS) = 1.81 − 2.61LogR − 0.0039R + 1.42Mw with pseudo hypocentral distance R = √R2 + (9.87)2 ; the estimated standard deviation is epi σ=0.75. Also noteworthy is another model for macroseismic intensity attenuation that proved to be as good as the best model and shows higher sensitivity to physical parameters, such as focal depth and magnitude, especially in the epicentral area. Performance of all calibrated models was also checked on an independent set of 15 post-1900 Italian earth- quakes. One of the results of the present work is the opportunity to define earthquake sce- narios (e.g. probabilistic seismic hazard maps) in terms of Macroseismic Intensity and its related standard deviation, avoiding the uncertainties due to the conversion of various ground shaking parameters into intensity values.
    Description: Published
    Description: 795–843
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Macroseismic Intensity ; Intensity Attenuation ; Macroseismic Data ; Italy ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: Seismic wave attenuation is a key feature of seismic wave propagation that provides constraints on the composition and physical state of the medium within the Earth. We separated intrinsic and scattering attenuation coefficients for the shallow crust and lower crust/upper mantle in the Mt. Etna area. For this purpose, the Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) was applied to two groups of earthquakes, well separated in depth. We also studied the spatial variation of the attenuation parameters by dividing the study area into four sectors around Etna. The results show an effective homogeneity of the propagation characteristics inside Etna and, in particular, some lateral variations and minor variations with depth. We observe that structural discontinuities and lithology control scattering losses at all frequencies, with higher scattering in the shallow crust. The intrinsic absorption shows no sensitivity to the presence of these main geological structures and is quite uniform for different depths. Furthermore, compared to the northern sector of the volcano, the southern one shows stronger scattering attenuation at low frequencies. This pattern correlates well with the high seismic activity along most of Etna’s active tectonic structures and ascending magmatic fluids that characterize this sector of the volcano. Although we only discuss the differences in the ‘‘average’’ scattering and inelastic properties of the investigated volumes, the results of this study are very informative about the characteristics of each region. Moreover, they suggest that a future study is necessary, providing a more detailed picture of the spatial distribution of seismic attenuation in the study area, through a 3D inversion of the attenuation parameters estimated along the single source-receiver paths.
    Description: Published
    Description: 171–187
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2024-06-28
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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