ALBERT

Beschreibung: The ability to adapt to social and environmental change is an increasingly critical feature of environmental governance. However, an understanding of how specific features of governance systems influence how they respond to change is still limited. Here we focus on how system features like diversity, heterogeneity, and connectedness impact stability, which indicates a system's capacity to recover from perturbations. Through a framework that combines agent-based modeling with "generalized"dynamical systems modeling, we model the stability of thousands of governance structures consisting of groups of resource users and non-government organizations interacting strategically with the decision centers that mediate their access to a shared resource. Stabilizing factors include greater effort dedicated to venue shopping and a greater fraction of non-government organizations in the system. Destabilizing factors include greater heterogeneity among actors, a greater diversity of decision centers, and greater interdependence between actors. The results suggest that while complexity tends to be destabilizing, there are mitigating factors that may help balance adaptivity and stability in complex governance. This study demonstrates the potential in applying the insights of complex systems theory to managing complex and highly uncertain human-natural systems in the face of rapid social and environmental change.

Beschreibung: Ionospheric irregularities are plasma density variations that occur at various altitudes and latitudes and whose size ranges from a few meters to a few hundred kilometers. They can have a negative impact on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), on their positioning accuracy and even cause a signal loss of lock (LoL), a phenomenon for which GNSS receivers can no longer track the satellites' signal. Nowadays, the study of plasma density irregularities is important because many of the crucial infrastructures of our society rely on the efficient operation of these positioning systems. It was recently discovered that, of all possible ionospheric plasma density fluctuations, those in a turbulent state and characterized by extremely high values of the Rate Of change of the electron Density Index appear to be associated with the occurrence of LoL events. The spatial distributions of this class of fluctuations at mid and high latitudes are reconstructed for the first time using data collected on Swarm satellites between July 15th, 2014 and December 31st, 2021, emphasizing their dependence on solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and season. The results unequivocally show that the identified class of plasma fluctuations exhibits spatio-temporal behaviours similar to those of LoL events.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 9287

Beschreibung: OSA3: Climatologia e meteorologia spaziale

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Owing to the current lack of plausible and exhaustive physical pre-eruptive models, often volcanologists rely on the observation of monitoring anomalies to track the evolution of volcanic unrest episodes. Taking advantage from the work made in the development of Bayesian Event Trees (BET), here we formalize an entropy-based model to translate the observation of anomalies into probability of a specific volcanic event of interest. The model is quite general and it could be used as a stand-alone eruption forecasting tool or to set up conditional probabilities for methodologies like the BET and of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The proposed model has some important features worth noting: (i) it is rooted in a coherent logic, which gives a physical sense to the heuristic information of volcanologists in terms of entropy; (ii) it is fully transparent and can be established in advance of a crisis, making the results reproducible and revisable, providing a transparent audit trail that reduces the overall degree of subjectivity in communication with civil authorities; (iii) it can be embedded in a unified probabilistic framework, which provides an univocal taxonomy of different kinds of uncertainty affecting the forecast and handles these uncertainties in a formal way. Finally, for the sake of example, we apply the procedure to track the evolution of the 1982–1984 phase of unrest at Campi Flegrei.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 5

Beschreibung: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Marine particles of different nature are found throughout the global ocean. The term "marine particles"describes detritus aggregates and fecal pellets as well as bacterioplankton, phytoplankton, zooplankton and nekton. Here, we present a global particle size distribution dataset obtained with several Underwater Vision Profiler 5 (UVP5) camera systems. Overall, within the 64 μm to about 50 mm size range covered by the UVP5, detrital particles are the most abundant component of all marine particles; thus, measurements of the particle size distribution with the UVP5 can yield important information on detrital particle dynamics. During deployment, which is possible down to 6000 m depth, the UVP5 images a volume of about 1 L at a frequency of 6 to 20 Hz. Each image is segmented in real time, and size measurements of particles are automatically stored. All UVP5 units used to generate the dataset presented here were inter-calibrated using a UVP5 high-definition unit as reference. Our consistent particle size distribution dataset contains 8805 vertical profiles collected between 19 June 2008 and 23 November 2020. All major ocean basins, as well as the Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea, were sampled. A total of 19 % of all profiles had a maximum sampling depth shallower than 200 dbar, 38 % sampled at least the upper 1000 dbar depth range and 11 % went down to at least 3000 dbar depth. First analysis of the particle size distribution dataset shows that particle abundance is found to be high at high latitudes and in coastal areas where surface productivity or continental inputs are elevated. The lowest values are found in the deep ocean and in the oceanic gyres. Our dataset should be valuable for more in-depth studies that focus on the analysis of regional, temporal and global patterns of particle size distribution and flux as well as for the development and adjustment of regional and global biogeochemical models. The marine particle size distribution dataset is available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.924375.

Beschreibung: The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISSE2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

Beschreibung: In this work, we perform an evaluation of the coverage of the earthquake monitoring network of Taiwan. The capability of a general network is a function of an adequate number of optimally distributed nodes. For this case study, the evaluation is performed with a statistical approach which includes descriptive spatial statistics in combination with point pattern techniques. The spatial distribution of the nodes of the earthquake monitoring network is analyzed in comparison with the distribution of seismicity, completeness magnitude, active seismogenic sources, seismic hazard, and population distribution. All these data can be put in relationship with the objectives of an earthquake monitoring network; therefore, they can be used, in turn, to retrieve information about the consistency of the network itself. In particular, we investigate the “Real-time Seismic Monitoring Network” and the “Strong-Motion Earthquake Observation Network,” each one characterized by its own objectives, and therefore respectively compared with external information related to their purposes such as seismicity, seismogenic sources, seismic hazard, and population distribution. This simple and reliable approach reveals the high quality of the networks established in Taiwan. In general, it is able to provide quantitative information on the coverage of any type of network, identifying possible critical areas and addressing their future development.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 643–657

Beschreibung: OST5 Verso un nuovo Monitoraggio

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: At active volcanoes recurring eruptive events, erosive processes and collapses modify the edifice morphology and impact monitoring and hazard mitigation. At Etna volcano (Italy) between February and October 2021, 57 paroxysmal events occurred from the South-East Crater (SEC), which is currently its most active summit crater. Strombolian activity and high lava fountains (up to 4 km) fed lava flows towards the east, south and south-west, and caused fallout of ballistics (greater than 1 m in diameter) within 1–2 km from the SEC. The impacted area does not include permanent infrastructure, but it is visited by thousands of tourists. Hence, we rapidly mapped each lava flow before deposits became covered by the next event, for hazard mitigation. The high frequency of the SEC paroxysms necessitated integration of data from three remote sensing platforms with different spatial resolutions. Satellite (Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, PlanetScope, Skysat and Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager) and drone images (visible and thermal) were processed and integrated to extract digital surface models and orthomosaics. Thermal images acquired by a permanent network of cameras of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia were orthorectified using the latest available digital surface model. This multi-sensor analysis allowed compilation of a geodatabase reporting the main geometrical parameters for each lava flow. A posteriori analysis allowed quantification of bulk volumes for the lava flows and the SEC changes and of the dense rock equivalent volume of erupted magma. The analysis of drone-derived digital surface models enabled assessment of the ballistics’ distribution. The developed methodology enabled rapidly and accurate characterisation of frequently occurring effusive events for near real-time risk assessment and hazard communication.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 58

Beschreibung: OSV3: Sviluppo di nuovi sistemi osservazionali e di analisi ad alta sensibilità

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities. In 2023, the sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached record highs. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 1021 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data); 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data). The Tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s. Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño, the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of ~0.23°C higher than 2022 and an astounding 〉 0.3°C above 2022 values for the second half of 2023. The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Bridge management is a complex and challenging task at global scale. The main purpose of bridge management is to facilitate the identification of bridge deficiencies in order to carefully plan and execute maintenance operations, and ensure the continued safety of traffic. In 2020, the Italian Ministry of Infrastructure issued mandatory guidelines for risk classification and management, safety assessment and monitoring of bridges. These guidelines rely upon bridge inventory, which includes a number of heterogeneous inspection data organized in different files. This paper presents a hardware and software architecture for the automatic entry of all inspection data (e.g. spatial information, sheets and photos) in a relational spatial database and their visualization through a Desktop and Web GIS (Geographic Information System) application. The procedure is summarized in a new Bridge Management System (BMS), whose main novelty is the full control of the georeferenced infrastructures, with the opportunity of improving the status check and management of bridges and their components. The BMS has been developed using data collected during inspection surveys requested by the Consortium of Sicilian Highways on the conditions of the bridges and viaducts belonging to motorways in Sicily (Italy). The developed system overcomes most of the common limitations in existing BMSs, such as the limited capacity of visualizing geospatial data and the reduced supported data formats, providing a valid Decision Support System in evaluating and prioritizing repair and maintenance actions.

Beschreibung: In press

Beschreibung: OSA1: Variazioni del campo magnetico terrestre, imaging crostale e sicurezza del territorio

Beschreibung: N/A or not JCR

Beschreibung: Changes in snowpack associated with climatic warming has drastic impacts on surface energy balance in the cryosphere. Yet, traditional monitoring techniques, such as punctual measurements in the field, do not cover the full snowpack spatial and temporal variability, which hampers efforts to upscale measurements to the global scale. This variability is one of the primary constraints in model development. In terms of spatial resolution, active microwaves (synthetic aperture radar – SAR) can address the issue and outperform methods based on passive microwaves. Thus, high-spatial-resolution monitoring of snow depth (SD) would allow for better parameterization of local processes that drive the spatial variability of snow. The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of the TerraSAR-X (TSX) SAR sensor and the wave co-polar phase difference (CPD) method for characterizing snow cover at high spatial resolution. Consequently, we first (1) investigate SD and depth hoar fraction (DHF) variability between different vegetation classes in the Ice Creek catchment (Qikiqtaruk/Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada) using in situ measurements collected over the course of a field campaign in 2019; (2) evaluate linkages between snow characteristics and CPD distribution over the 2019 dataset; and (3) determine CPD seasonality considering meteorological data over the 2015–2019 period. SD could be extracted using the CPD when certain conditions are met. A high incidence angle () with a high topographic wetness index (TWI) (〉7.0) showed correlation between SD and CPD (R2 up to 0.72). Further, future work should address a threshold of sensitivity to TWI and incidence angle to map snow depth in such environments and assess the potential of using interpolation tools to fill in gaps in SD information on drier vegetation types.