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  • Articles  (74)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • Cambridge University Press
  • Wiley-Blackwell
  • 2020-2024  (74)
  • 1980-1984
  • 1965-1969
  • 2021  (74)
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  • 1
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    Defining Homogeneous Drought Zones Based on Soil Moisture across Japan and Teleconnections with Large-Scale Climate Signals (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Droughts are widespread disasters worldwide and are concurrently influenced by multiple large-scale climate signals. This is particularly true over Japan, where drought has strong heterogeneity due to multiple factors such as monsoon, topography, and ocean circulations. Regional heterogeneity poses challenges for drought prediction and management. To overcome this difficulty, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of teleconnection between climate signals and homogeneous drought zones over Japan. First, droughts are characterized by simulated soil moisture from land surface model during 1958-2012. The Mclust toolkit, distinct empirical orthogonal function, and wavelet coherence analysis are used, respectively, to investigate the homogeneous drought zone, principal component of each homogeneous zone, and teleconnection between climate signals and drought. Results indicate that nine homogeneous drought zones with different characteristics are defined and quantified. Among these nine zones, zone-1 is dominated by extreme drought events. Zone-2 and zone-6 are typical representatives of spring droughts, while zone-7 is wet for most of the period. The Hokkaido region is divided into wetter zone-4 and drier zone-9. Zone-3, zone-5 and zone-8 are distinguished by the topography. The analyses also reveal almost nine zones have a high level of homogeneity, with more than 60% explained variance. Also, these nine zones are dominated by different large-scale climate signals: the Arctic Oscillation has the strongest impact on zone-1, zone-7, and zone-8; the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on zone-3, zone-4, and zone-6 is significant; zone-2 and zone-9 are both dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; El Niño-Southern Oscillation dominates zone-5. The results will be valuable for drought management and drought prevention.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Comparison of aerobic rice cultivation using drip systems with conventional flooding (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: In this study, yield and water productivity response of rice to various irrigation levels applied with subsurface and surface drip systems in 2019 and 2020 in the Mediterranean Region of Turkey was evaluated in comparison with conventional flooding (CF). The treatments consisted of two irrigation methods namely surface drip (DI) and subsurface drip systems (SDI), three irrigation levels designated as plant pan coefficients (I1.00: Evaporation from Class A pan (Ep) × 1.00; I1.25: Ep × 1.25 and I1.50: Ep × 1.50) and CF as control. The effects of drip systems and coefficients on yield and yield components were statistically significant (P 〈 0.01). DI produced higher yield than SDI. CF produced significantly greater yield than both DI and SDI systems. With two drip systems, average water savings of 60.5% in I1.00, 54.5% in I1.25 and 49% in I1.50 were achieved as compared to CF. However, yield reductions of 15% in I1.50, 20% in I1.25, 29% in I1.00 were observed for DI; corresponding values for SDI were 20, 28 and 44%, respectively. Drip irrigation in aerobic rice production system had almost twice the water productivity based on total irrigation water applied (WPI) or total water input (irrigation + rainfall) (WPI+P) compared with CF. During the study years, the highest WPI and WPI+P values were found in DI-I1.00 (0.81–0.73 kg/m3) and (0.85 and 0.74 kg/m3), respectively. In conclusion, DI-I1.50 treatment is recommended for sustainable aerobic rice production since DI-I1.50 resulted in water saving of 49% but yield decrease of 15% as compared to CF.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Published by Cambridge University Press
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  • 3
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    Chitosan and microbial inoculants in whole-plant soybean silage (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Whole-plant soybean silage (WPSS) is a potential high-protein roughage source for ruminant diets. However, WPSS can be difficult to ensile and fermentation is a challenge. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of chitosan and microbial inoculants on fermentation profile, fermentation losses, chemical composition, and in vitro degradation of WPSS. Forty experimental silos (PVC tubing with 28 cm i.d. and 25 cm height) were produced. Soybean plants from 10 plots were ensiled in a completely randomized block design to evaluate the following treatments: (1) control (CON): WPSS without additives; (2) chitosan (CHI): WPSS additive with 6 g/kg DM of chitosan; (3) LBB: WPSS treated with 5.0 × 107 colony-forming units (CFU) of Lactobacillus buchneri (NCIM 40788) per kg of fresh matter and (4) LPP: WPSS treated with 1.6 × 108 CFU of Lactobacillus plantarum and 1.6 × 108 CFU of Pediococcus acidilactici per kg of fresh matter. Silos were opened 120 days after ensiling. Microbial inoculants reduced silage pH, whereas LPP-treated silos showed the lowest concentration of NH3-N, ethanol, butyric, acetic, branched-chain, and propionic organic acids. LBB-treatment decreased lactic acid bacteria (LAB) count relative to other treatments, and LPP-treatment showed the lowest fermentation losses, improving dry matter (DM) recovery. Relative to other treatments, LPP increased silage DM, organic matter, and decreased acid detergent insoluble crude protein (CP), improving DM and neutral detergent fibre in vitro degradation. Treatments showed no effect on silage aerobic stability. Thus, LPP-treatment improves fermentation profile, reduces fermentation losses, and increases the nutritional value of WPSS.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Published by Cambridge University Press
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  • 4
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    On-farm assessment of cover cropping effects on soil C and N pools, enzyme activities, and microbial community structure (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Introducing cover crops (CC) in annual cropping systems can promote nutrient cycling and improve soil health. However, impacts of CC on soil health indicators vary and depend on the duration of CC, cropping systems, and other environmental conditions. We performed an on-farm assessment of cover cropping impacts on soil health indicators including C and N pools, enzyme activities, and microbial community structure under different no-till maize-based cropping systems (maize (Zea mays L.)–soybean (Glycine max L.) [CS], CS-winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) [CSWw], and maize-oats (Avena sativa L.) [CO]). At five farms, fields with different durations of CC were compared to adjacent no CC (NCC) fields. In general, long-term CC enhanced the soil health parameters compared to NCC. Long-term (20-year) winter rye CC had higher water-extractable C and N content, enzyme activities (β-glucosidase (1.2 times greater), urease (5.5 times greater), acid (1.5 times greater) and alkaline (4 times greater) phosphatase, arylsulfatase (0.8 times greater) and fluorescein diacetate (FDA) (0.7 times greater)) and soil bacterial community abundance (1.2 times greater). Short-term (3–6 years) legume and grass CC mixtures increased β-glucosidase (0.9 times), acid (0.7 times) and alkaline (1.5 times) phosphatase, arylsulfatase (3 times), FDA (0.8 times) activities and total phospholipid fatty acid (1.6 times) concentration. However, short-term (3–6 years) winter rye, legume and brassica mixtures did not significantly alter soil microbial community structure. This study showed that implementation of CC for 〉6 years promoted C, N, S, and P cycling that are beneficial to soil health in maize-based cropping systems.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 5
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    Methane emissions from cattle manure during short-term storage with and without a plastic cover in different seasons (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Manure is a primary source of methane (CH4) emissions into the atmosphere. A large proportion of CH4 from manure is emitted during storage, but this varies with storage methods. In this research, we tested whether covering a manure heap with plastic reduces CH4 emission during a short-term composting process. A static chamber method was used to detect the CH4 emission rate and the change of the physicochemical properties of cattle manure which was stored either uncovered (treatment UNCOVERED) or covered with plastic (treatment COVERED) for 30-day periods during the four seasons? The dry matter content of the COVERED treatment was significantly less than the UNCOVERED treatment (P 〈 0.01), and the C/N ratio of the COVERED treatment significantly greater than the UNCOVERED treatment (P 〉 0.05) under high temperature. In the UNCOVERED treatment, average daily methane (CH4) emissions were in the order summer 〉 spring 〉 autumn 〉 winter. CH4 emissions were positively correlated with the temperature (R2 = 0.52, P 〈 0.01). Compared to the UNCOVERED treatment, the daily average CH4 emission rates from COVERED treatment manure were less in the first 19 days of spring, 13 days of summer, 10 days of autumn and 30 days of winter. In summary, covering the manure pile with plastic reduces the evaporation of water during storage; and in winter, long-term covering with plastic film reduces the CH4 emissions during the storage of manure.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 6
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    Hydrodynamic damping of an oscillating cylinder at small Keulegan–Carpenter numbers (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-02
    Description: Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of oscillatory flow around a cylinder show that the Stokes–Wang (S–W) solution agrees exceptionally well with DNS results over a much larger parameter space than the constraints of $ eta K^2ll 1$ and $ eta gg 1$ specified by the S–W solution, where $K$ is the Keulegan–Carpenter number and $ eta$ is the Stokes number. The ratio of drag coefficients predicted by DNS and the S–W solution, $varLambda _K$ , mapped out in the $Kext {--} eta$ space, shows that $varLambda _K 〈 1.05$ for $Kleq {sim }0.8$ and $1 leq eta leq 10^6$ , which contradicts its counterpart based on experimental results. The large $varLambda _K$ values are primarily induced by the flow separation on the cylinder surface, rather than the development of three-dimensional (Honji) instabilities. The difference between two-dimensional and three-dimensional DNS results is less than 2 % for $K$ smaller than the corresponding $K$ values on the iso-line of $varLambda _K = 1.1$ with $ eta = 200ext {--}20,950$ . The flow separation actually occurs over the parameter space where $varLambda _Kapprox 1.0$ . It is the spatio-temporal extent of flow separation rather than separation itself that causes large $varLambda _K$ values. The proposed measure for the spatio-temporal extent, which is more sensitive to $K$ than $ eta$ , correlates extremely well with $varLambda _K$ . The conventional Morison equation with a quadratic drag component is fundamentally incorrect at small $K$ where the drag component is linearly proportional to the incoming velocity with a phase difference of ${ m pi} /4$ . A general form of the Morison equation is proposed by considering both viscous and form drag components and demonstrated to be superior to the conventional equation for $K 〈 {sim }2.0$ .
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-7645
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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  • 7
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    Non-contact measurement system for hot water drilled ice boreholes (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-01-21
    Description: A programmable borehole measurement system was deployed in hot water drilled ice holes during the ‘Bed Access and Monitoring of Ice Sheet History’ (BEAMISH) project to drill to the bed of the Rutford Ice Stream in West Antarctica. This system operates autonomously (no live data) after deployment, and records borehole diameter (non-contact measurement), water column pressure, heading and inclination. Three cameras, two sideways looking and one vertical, are also included for visual inspection of hole integrity and sediments. The system is small, lightweight (~35.5 kg) and low power using only 6 ‘D’ cell sized lithium batteries, making it ideal for transport and use in remote field sites. The system is 2.81 m long and 165 mm in diameter, and can be deployed attached to the drill hose for measurements during drilling or on its own deployment line afterwards. The full system is discussed in detail, highlighting design strengths and weaknesses. Data from the BEAMISH project are also presented in the form of camera images showing hole integrity, and sensor data used to calculate borehole diameter through the full length of the hole. These data are used to show confidence in hole verticality and subsurface cavity development and connection.
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
    Electronic ISSN: 1727-5644
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Glaciological Society.
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  • 8
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    The BEAMISH hot water drill system and its use on the Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-01-15
    Description: During the 2018/19 Antarctic field season, the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Basal conditions on Rutford Ice Stream: BEd Access, Monitoring and Ice Sheet History’ (BEAMISH) project drilled three holes through the Rutford Ice Stream, West Antarctica. At up to 2154 m, these are the deepest hot water drilled subglacial access holes yet created, enabling the recovery of sediment from the subglacial environment, and instrumenting the ice stream and its bed. The BEAMISH hot-water drill system was built on extensive experience with the BAS ice shelf hot-water drill and utilises many identical components. With up to 1 MW of heating power available, the hot water drill produces 140 L min−1 of water at 85°C to create a 300 mm diameter access hole to the base of the ice stream. New systems and processes were developed for BEAMISH to aid critical aspects of deep access drilling, most notably the creation of cavities interlinking boreholes at 230 m below the surface and enabling water recirculation throughout the deep drilling operations. The modular design of the BEAMISH drill offers many benefits in its adaptability, redundancy, and minimal logistical footprint. These design features can easily accommodate the modifications needed for future deep, clean access hole creation in the exploration of subglacial environments.
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
    Electronic ISSN: 1727-5644
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Glaciological Society.
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  • 9
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    Marker-assisted stacking of null Kunitz trypsin inhibitor and off-flavour generating lipoxygenase-2 in soybean (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Soybean varieties genetically free from Kunitz trypsin inhibitor (KTI) and lipoxygenase-2 (Lox2) are desirable to increase human consumption, as the former is an antinutritional factor that affects protein digestibility while the latter is a principal contributor to off-flavour. In the present investigation, soybean genotypes free from both these undesirable components were developed by introgression of null allele of Lox2 from NRC109 (lox2lox2) into two KTI-free soybean genotypes derived from genotypes JS97-52 and NRC7. Foreground selection of plants in F1, F2, BC1F1, BC1F2, BC2F1 and BC2F2 generations developed from two cross combinations i.e. NRC7-derived KTI-free genotype (N7KTIF)×NRC109 (parental combination 1) and JS97-52 derived KTI free genotype (JKTIF)×NRC109 (parental combination 2) was performed using null allele specific markers and tightly linked simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers for both KTI and Lox2 genes for the identification of homozygous recessive (titilox2lox2) plants. Background selection was performed using 239 and 241 polymorphic SSR markers across the genome. This resulted in the development of 9 and 13 soybean lines stacked for null alleles of both KTI and Lox2 (titilox2lox2) exhibiting recurrent parent genome content more than 97 and 96%, respectively. Days-to-flowering, days-to-maturity, 100-seed weight and yield per plant of the stacked lines developed from both the parental combinations were at par with the respective recurrent parents.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 10
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    Soil fertilization synergistically enhances the impact of pollination services in increasing seed yield of sunflower under dryland conditions (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: To exploit the potential of ecological intensification during sunflower cropping, it is crucial to understand the potential synergies between crop management and ecosystem services. We therefore examined the effect of pollination intensification on sunflower yield and productivity under various levels of soil fertilization over two seasons in the eastern Free State, South Africa. We manipulated soil fertility with fertilizer applications and pollination with exclusion bags. We found a synergetic effect between pollination and soil fertilization whereby increasing pollination intensity led to a far higher impact on sunflower yield when the soil had been fertilized. Specifically, the intensification of insect pollination increased seed yield by approximately 0.4 ton/ha on nutrient poor soil and by approximately 1.7 ton/ha on moderately fertilized soil. Our findings suggest that sunflower crops on adequate balanced soil fertility will receive abundant insect pollination and may gain more from both synergies than crops grown in areas with degraded soil fertility.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 11
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    Endozoochorous seed dispersal of glyphosate-resistant Lolium multiflorum by cattle (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Lolium multiflorum, one of the most important temperate forage grasses in the world, is used in integrated crop-livestock systems and as a cover crop. However, it is also one of the main weeds in winter crops. The continuous use of glyphosate to manage this species has led to the selection of resistant biotypes (LOLMU-R), making it important to prevent the dispersal of these seeds. This study aimed to assess the recovery and germination of LOLMU-R that have passed through the digestive system of cattle. The experiments were carried out in metabolism cages, using a completely randomized design with six replications. The animals were given 12 112 seeds each, which were recovered from their faeces over a period of 6 days. Germination of the recovered seeds was assessed in a germination chamber and compared against a control (no animal passage). After germination, a glyphosate dose-response curve was constructed. The results obtained showed a total recovery of 1109 seeds (9.1%), with maximum recovery 2 days after ingestion, decreasing to almost zero on day 6. Germination declined linearly as a function of recovery time; however, 4 days after ingestion, germination potential was 18%. The dose-response curve proved the resistance of the recovered seeds. Cattle is a dispersal agent for LOLMU-R seeds, with animals requiring 7 days of quarantine before moving from one infested area to another.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 12
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    Effect of aminoethoxyvinylglycine (AVG) on quality, berry set and coloration of ‘Alphonse Lavallée’ table grapes (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: The effect of different concentrations of aminoethoxyvinylglycine (AVG; 0 (control), 250, 500, 750 and 1000 mg/l), an ethylene biosynthesis inhibitor, on grape berry set and fruit quality was evaluated under vineyard conditions. Treatments were performed on ‘Alphonse Lavallée’ grape cultivar at full bloom stage for two years. Cluster and berry growth (length, width and weight), firmness, soluble solids content, yield, berry set, anthocyanin content and colour parameters were determined on treated and untreated (control) fruits. As a result of the study, the effects of AVG concentrations on firmness were not significant. When AVG applications were compared with control, it is determined that some quality properties were statistically affected, the others were not. Fruit set was increased by lower concentrations of AVG (250 mg/l) and anthocyanin content was increased by higher concentrations of AVG (750 mg/l).
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 13
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    Performance, carcass traits and meat quality of lambs fed with different roughage: concentrate ratios associated with variable physically effective neutral detergent fibre content (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: This study evaluated the effect of roughage:concentrate (R:C) ratio associated with a variable particle size of physically effective neutral detergent fibre (peNDF8) in the forage (Tifton-85 hay) on the performance, carcass traits and meat quality of lambs. Seventy-two 4-month-old, non-castrated Santa Ines male lambs (23.5 ± 2.32 kg BW) were distributed in a completely randomized design, in a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement [two peNDF8 hay particle sizes (13 and 6 mm) and two R:C ratios (700:300 and 500:500 g/kg DM total)]. DMI, DM, NFC and TDN digestibility's, N-intake and N-faecal excretion were affected by the R:C ratio (P 〈 0.05). However, the N-retained was not affected by the studied variables (P 〉 0.05). It was observed an interaction (P 〈 0.05) between the peNDF8 and R:C ratios for final BW, average daily gain (ADG), colour parameters and pH 24 h. The lower roughage ratio provided greater (P 〈 0.05) concentrations of C14:1, C16:1–cis9, C18:1–cis9, ΣMUFA, Σn–6:Σn–3 and hypocholesterolemic/hypercholesterolemic index, enzymatic activity Δ9desaturase-C16 and -C18. Lambs fed a lower roughage diet had improved performance and feed efficiency, however, presented reduced polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) concentrations in the meat, especially Σn–3 family. Higher roughage diet and larger peNDF8 particle size improved the concentrations of PUFA while decreased Σn–6:Σn–3 ratio in meat. Larger peNDF8 particle size associated with higher roughage proportion, have reduced animal performance however, it increased protein concentration, a* and C* colour parameter without affecting fatty acids profile of Longissimus lumborum muscle.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 14
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    The influence of lime application on the chemical and physical characteristics of acidic grassland soils with impeded drainage (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Soil acidity and poor nutrient use efficiency are major limiting factors as regards output potential on heavy soils, soils which are dominated by high proportions of clay and organic matter, with impeded drainage, high buffering capacity and located in high rainfall areas. Lime is applied in order to counteract these limiting factors and in turn improve agricultural output and productivity. The current study investigates the effects of two commonly used lime products at three comparable treatment rates, ground lime (7.5, 5 and 2.5 tonne/ha) and granulated lime (7.5, 2.5 and 1.5 tonne/ha), applied across three distinct sites. The ability of each lime product and treatment rate to counteract soil acidity, increase nutrient availability and influence soil physical structure was assessed over time. On average across sites, 1 tonne/ha of each lime product increased soil pH by 0.15 and 0.21 pH units between ground and granulated lime, respectively. Site 3 experienced the greatest increase change in soil pH in comparison to the other two sites, largely due to lower clay content and cation exchange capacity. Granulated lime was 5.7 times more expensive than ground lime in its ability to reduce soil acidity. The high treatment rate showed the greatest reduction in soil acidity, aluminium and iron concentration as a mean across all sites. Morgan's soil test phosphorus concentration increased across all sites, with treatment rates having no effect on the rate of increase. There was evidence of reduced soil compaction and lime application showed no negative implication on soil physical structure.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 15
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    Efficacy of shoot production of cassava using the multiple shoot removal technique for rapid propagation (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: One thrust in increasing food security in Jamaica is expansion of cassava production. The multiple shoot removal technique (MSRT) for rapid propagation of cassava can help address limitations in planting material. Shoots sprouting from cuttings of hardwood stem are severed in such a way as to induce further sprouting, and then put to root for subsequent transfer to the field. The effects of age and fertilization of parent plants and nodal age of stems were studied. Six Colombian varieties were planted in fertilized and unfertilized field plots with similar growing conditions to provide stems for MSRT propagation. Volume of two-node cuttings increased from apical to basal nodal age, but cutting density was a better predictor of shoot production. On average, three to six viable shoots were produced per cutting over 3 months in a greenhouse. All nodal ages of stems from parent plants aged 6, 7 and 9 months were suitable if the quality of the planting stakes producing parent plants was adequate. If stake quality is uncertain, it is recommended that apical pieces are not used from parents younger than 9 months. The variety CM 6119-5 consistently produced most shoots, suggesting a strong genotypic effect, but other varieties, particularly CM 849, were less consistent, indicating the role of environmental interactions. The physiological status of cuttings as influenced by stem maturity, parent plant age, nutrition and growing conditions of both grandparent and parent stems was as important as genotypic characteristics in determining shoot production from two-node cuttings of cassava stem.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 16
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    Deep ice-core drilling to 800 m at Dome A in East Antarctica (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-05
    Description: A deep ice core was drilled at Dome A, Antarctic Plateau, East Antarctica, which started with the installation of a casing in January 2012 and reached 800.8 m in January 2017. To date, a total of 337 successful ice-core drilling runs have been conducted, including 118 runs to drill the pilot hole. The total drilling time was 52 days, of which eight days were required for drilling down and reaming the pilot hole, and 44 days for deep ice coring. The average penetration depths of individual runs were 1 and 3.1 m for the pilot hole drilling and deep ice coring, respectively. The quality of the ice cores was imperfect in the brittle zone (650−800 m). Some of the troubles encountered are discussed for reference, such as armoured cable knotting, screws falling into the hole bottom, and damaged parts, among others.
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
    Electronic ISSN: 1727-5644
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Glaciological Society.
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  • 17
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    A Synoptic View of the Onset of the Mid-Latitude QBO Signal (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-13
    Description: The extratropical effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), known as the Holton-Tan effect, is manifest as aweaker, warmer winter Arctic polar vortex during the east QBO phase. While previous studies have shown that the extratropical QBO signal is caused by the modified propagation of planetary waves in the stratosphere, the mechanism dominating the onset and seasonal development of the Holton-Tan effects remains unclear. Here, the governing wave-mean flow dynamics of the early winter extratropical QBO signal onset and its reversibility is investigated on a synoptic timescale with a finite-amplitude diagnostic using reanalysis and a chemistry-climate model. The extratropical QBO signal onset in October is found to primarily result from modulated stratospheric life-cycles of wave pulses entering the stratosphere from the troposphere, rather than from a modulation of their tropospheric wave source. A comprehensive analysis of the wave activity budget during fall, when the stratospheric winter polar vortex starts forming and waves start propagating up into the stratosphere, shows significant differences. During the east QBO phase, the deceleration of the mid-high latitude stratospheric zonal mean jet by the upward propagating wave pulses is less reversible, due to stronger dissipation processes, while during the west phase, a more reversible deceleration of the main polar vortex is found owing to the waves being dissipated at lower latitudes, accompanied by a weak but different response of the tropospheric subtropical jet. From this synoptic wave-event viewpoint, the early season onset of the Holton-Tan effect results from the cumulative effect of the QBO dependent wave-induced deceleration during the life cycle of individual upward wave pulses.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    On particle fountains in a stratified environment (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-23
    Description: We present a series of experiments to explore the dynamics of particle-laden fountains rising through a stratified environment with zero buoyancy flux at the source. We find that the ratio $U$ between the particle sedimentation speed $V_s$ and the characteristic fountain velocity $(M_0N^{2})^{1/4}$ , where $M_0$ is the initial momentum flux and $N$ the frequency of the ambient stratification, has a profound effect on the structure of the fountain and the dispersal of the particles. In a mono-disperse particle fountain, when the settling speed of the particles is small in comparison to the characteristic fountain speed ( $Ull 1$ ) the flow initially behaves in an analogous fashion to a single-phase fountain, forming an intrusion at a height of approximately 0.5 of the maximum fountain height. As the fluid–particle mixture spreads out, the particles gradually sediment to the tank floor. The intruding fluid subsequently rises and forms a new intrusion at its neutral buoyancy height. Some of the particles are carried up from the original intrusion with the rising fluid. This leads to the formation of a sedimenting column of particles with a characteristic radius. We observe a transition in the behaviour of the particle fountains in the vicinity of $Usim 0.1$ , with the particles now separating from the fluid near the top of the fountain. The separation of the particles leads to a reduction in the steady-state height of the particle-laden fountain, while the fluid in the fountain continues upwards until reaching its neutral buoyancy height and forming an intrusion above the fountain top. We compare the experimental data with two models of turbulent fountains to help rationalise the trends observed as a function of the dimensionless fall speed $U$ . We briefly consider the dynamics of poly-disperse particle fountains and relate their dynamics to the regimes observed in their mono-disperse counterparts. We discuss the implications of this work for the dispersal of different sized particles from submarine volcanic eruptions.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
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    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Crop succession and split-application of nitrogen effects on common bean yield in short no-tillage system (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Evaluating the effects of crop successions in no-tillage system (NTS) is essential for the correct recommendation of agronomic practices, such as top-dressing nitrogen fertilization. The aim was to evaluate the effect of the crop succession and the splitting of top-dressing N fertilization on the agronomic performance and economic viability of common bean crop. The experiment was conducted in southeastern Brazil for two agricultural seasons in an area under NTS, using a split-plot in randomized complete block design. The plots represented three cropping successions (maize in sole crop, maize intercropped with Urochloa ruziziensis and U. ruziziensis in sole crop) and the subplots composed of ten combinations of splitting of top-dressing N, at the stages V3, V4 and R5 of the common bean crop. In relation to the single application of the N dose of 90 kg ha−1, the common bean had higher response as a function of the N splitting schemes adopted, regardless of the previous cropping succession. The cropping successions evaluated did not interfere with the seed yield of common bean as subsequent crop, even at the beginning of the establishment of NTS. To obtain higher seed yield and economic viability, the N dose of 90 kg ha−1 indicated for the crop must be split and applied among the phenological stages V3, V4 and R5.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Published by Cambridge University Press
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    Ice core drilling on a high-elevation accumulation zone of Trambau Glacier in the Nepal Himalaya (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-01
    Description: We drilled an 81.2-m-long ice core in the accumulation area (5860 m a.s.l.) of Trambau Glacier in the Rolwaling region during October–November 2019. The drilling operation was conducted with a lightweight electro-mechanical drill system after two reconnaissance fieldworks in 2017 and 2018, during which two shallow firn cores were drilled with a hand auger. The drill system and ice core samples were transported by helicopters at a high elevation of 6000 m a.s.l. A further challenging issue was the ice core transportation between Nepal and Japan, as no regular commercial flight was available for the frozen samples. The addition of dry ice imported from India immediately prior to leaving Nepal allowed the ice core samples to be successfully transported to a cold room in Japan, and remain in a frozen state. Stratigraphic observations during the drilling operation suggest the drill site has been affected by melting and refreezing.
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
    Electronic ISSN: 1727-5644
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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    Evaluating foehn occurrence in a changing climate based on reanalysis and climate model data using machine learning (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: This study explores the possibilities of employing machine learning algorithms to predict foehn occurrence in Switzerland at a north-Alpine (Altdorf) and south-Alpine (Lugano) station from its synoptic fingerprint in reanalysis data and climate simulations. This allows for an investigation on a potential future shift in monthly foehn frequencies. First, inputs from various atmospheric fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERAI) were used to train an XGBoost model. Here, similar predictive performance to previous work was achieved, showing that foehn can accurately be diagnosed from the coarse synoptic situation. In the next step, the algorithm was generalized to predict foehn based on Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble simulations of a present-day and warming future climate. The best generalization between ERAI and CESM was obtained by including the present-day data in the training procedure and simultaneously optimizing two objective functions, namely the negative log loss and squared mean loss, on both datasets, respectively. It is demonstrated that the same synoptic fingerprint can be identified in CESM climate simulation data. Finally, predictions for present-day and future simulations were verified and compared for statistical significance. Our model is shown to produce valid output for most months, revealing that south foehn in Altdorf is expected to become more common during spring, while north foehn in Lugano is expected to become more common during summer.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    Validation of HWRF-based Probabilistic TC Wind and Precipitation forecasts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: Tropical cyclones are associated with a variety of significant social hazards, including wind, rain, and storm surge. Despite this, most of the model validation effort has been directed toward track and intensity forecasts. In contrast, few studies have investigated the skill of state-of-the-art, high-resolution ensemble prediction systems in predicting associated TC hazards, which is crucial since TC position and intensity do not always correlate with the TC-related hazards, and can result in impacts far from the actual TC center. Furthermore, dynamic models can provide flow-dependent uncertainty estimates, which in turn can provide more specific guidance to forecasters than statistical uncertainty estimates based on past errors. This study validates probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and precipitation hazards derived from the HWRF ensemble prediction system and compares its skill to forecasts by the stochastically-based operational Monte Carlo Model (NHC), the IFS (ECMWF), and the GEFS (NOAA) in use 2017-2019. Wind and Precipitation forecasts are validated against NHC best track wind radii information and the National Stage IV QPE Product. The HWRF 34 kn wind forecasts have comparable skill to the global models up to 60 h lead time before HWRF skill decreases, possibly due to detrimental impacts of large track errors. In contrast, HWRF has comparable quality to its competitors for higher thresholds of 50 kn and 64 kn throughout 120 h lead time. In terms of precipitation hazards, HWRF performs similar or better than global models, but depicts higher, although not perfect, reliability, especially for events over 5 in120h−1. Post-processing, like Quantile Mapping, improves forecast skill for all models significantly and can alleviate reliability issues of the global models.
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    Asymmetric impact of the Scandinavian pattern on stratospheric circulation anomalies (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: This study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.
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    Subantarctic Mode Water and its long-term change in CMIP6 models (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is a major water mass in the South Indian and Pacific oceans and plays an important role in the ocean uptake and anthropogenic heat and carbon. The characteristics, formation, and long-term evolution of the SAMW are investigated in the “historical” and “SSP245” scenario simulations of the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Defined by the low potential vorticity, the simulated SAMW is consistently thinner, shallower, lighter, and warmer than in observations, due to biases in the winter mixed layer properties and spatial distribution. The biases are especially large in the South Pacific Ocean. The winter mixed layer bias can be attributed to unrealistic heat loss and stratification in the models. Nevertheless, the SAMW is presented better in the CMIP6 than CMIP5, regarding its volume, location, and physical characteristics. In warmer climate, the simulated SAMW in the South Indian Ocean consistently becomes lighter in density, with a reduced volume and a southward shift in the subduction region. The reduced heat loss, instead of the increased Ekman pumping induced by the poleward intensified westerly wind, dominates in the SAMW change. The winter mixed layer shoals in the northern outcrop region and the SAMW subduction shifts southward where the mixed layer remains deep. The projected reduction of the SAMW volume is likely to impact the heat and freshwater redistribution in the Southern Ocean.
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    A macroscopic two-length-scale model for natural convection in porous media driven by a species-concentration gradient (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-06
    Description: The modelling of natural convection in porous media is receiving increased interest due to its significance in environmental and engineering problems. State-of-the-art simulations are based on the classic macroscopic Darcy–Oberbeck–Boussinesq (DOB) equations, which are widely accepted to capture the underlying physics of convection in porous media provided the Darcy number, $Da$ , is small. In this paper we analyse and extend the recent pore-resolved direct numerical simulations (DNS) of Gasow et al. (J. Fluid Mech, vol. 891, 2020, p. A25) and show that the macroscopic diffusion, which is neglected in DOB, is of the same order (with respect to $Da$ ) as the buoyancy force and the Darcy drag. Consequently, the macroscopic diffusion must be modelled even if the value of $Da$ is small. We propose a ‘two-length-scale diffusion’ model, in which the effect of the pore scale on the momentum transport is approximated with a macroscopic diffusion term. This term is determined by both the macroscopic length scale and the pore scale. It includes a transport coefficient that solely depends on the pore-scale geometry. Simulations of our model render a more accurate Sherwood number, root mean square (r.m.s.) of the mass concentration and r.m.s. of the velocity than simulations that employ the DOB equations. In particular, we find that the Sherwood number $Sh$ increases with decreasing porosity and with increasing Schmidt number $(Sc)$ . In addition, for high values of $Ra$ and high porosities, $Sh$ scales nonlinearly. These trends agree with the DNS, but are not captured in the DOB simulations.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
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    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Diurnal Cycle of Tropical Oceanic Mesoscale Cold Pools (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-31
    Description: Tropical convection regimes range from deep organized to shallow convective systems. Mesoscale processes such as cold pools within tropical convective systems can play a significant role in the evolution of convection over land and open ocean. Although cold pools are widely observed, their diurnal properties are not well understood over tropical oceans and land. The oceanic cold pool identification metric applied herein uses the gradient feature (GF) technique and is compared with diurnally-resolved buoy-identified thermal cold pools. This study provides a first-ever diurnal climatology of GF number, area, and attributed TRMM 3B42 precipitation using a space-borne scatterometer (RapidScat). Buoy data over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean have been used to validate and examine the RapidScat-identified diurnal cycle of GF number and precipitation. Buoy-observed cold pool duration, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed is analyzed to understand the in situ cold pool properties over tropical oceans. GF- and buoy-observed cold pool number and precipitation exhibits a similar bimodal diurnal variability with a morning and afternoon maxima, thus establishing confidence in using GF as a proxy to observe cold pools over tropical oceans. The morning peak is attributed to cold pools associated with deep moist convection while the afternoon peak is related to shallower clouds in relatively drier environments resulting in smaller cold pools over global tropical oceans.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Description: Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.
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    Assimilating Cloud Optical Depth for Applications to Extreme Weather Events (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: This paper reports the assimilation of cloud optical depth datasets into a variational data assimilation system to improve cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel analysis in extreme weather events for improving forecasts. A cloud optical depth forward operator was developed and implemented in the Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS), a multiscale three-dimensional variational analysis system. Using this improved analysis system, the NOAA GOES-15 DCOMP (Daytime Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties) cloud optical depth products were assimilated to improve the microphysical states. For an eight-day period of extreme weather events in September 2013 in Colorado, the United States, the impact of the cloud optical depth assimilation on the analysis results and forecasts was evaluated. The DCOMP products improved the cloud ice and cloud water predictions significantly in convective and lower levels. The DCOMP products also reduced errors in temperature and relative humidity data at the top (250–150 hPa) and bottom (850–700 hPa) layers. With the cloud ice improvement at higher layers, the DCOMP products provided better forecasts of cloud liquid at low layers (900–700 hPa), temperature and wind at all layers, and relative humidity at middle and bottom layers. Furthermore, for this extreme weather event, both equitable threat score (ETS) and bias were improved throughout the 12 h period, with the most significant improvement observed in the first 3 h. This study will raise the expectation of cloud optical depth product assimilation in operational applications.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
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    Wall-induced translation of a rotating particle in a shear-thinning fluid (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-21
    Description: Particle–wall interactions have broad biological and technological applications. In particular, some artificial microswimmers capitalize on their translation–rotation coupling near a wall to generate directed propulsion. Emerging biomedical applications of these microswimmers in complex biological fluids prompt questions on the impact of non-Newtonian rheology on their propulsion. In this work, we report some intriguing effects of shear-thinning rheology, a ubiquitous non-Newtonian behaviour of biological fluids, on the translation–rotation coupling of a particle near a wall. One particularly interesting feature revealed here is that the wall-induced translation by rotation can occur in a direction opposite to what might be intuitively expected for an object rolling on a solid substrate. We elucidate the underlying physical mechanism and discuss its implications on the design of micromachines and bacterial motion near walls in complex fluids.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
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    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2 (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-22
    Description: Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s−1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s−1. Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.
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    Core handling, transportation and processing for the South Pole ice core (SPICEcore) project — ERRATUM (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-01
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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    The Impact of Midlevel Shear Orientation on the Longevity of and Downdraft Location and Tornado-like Vortex Formation within Simulated Supercells (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Despite an increased understanding of environments favorable for tornadic supercells, it is still sometimes unknown why one favorable environment produces many long-tracked tornadic supercells and another seemingly equally-favorable environment produces only short-lived supercells. One relatively unexplored environmental parameter that may differ between such environments is the degree of backing or veering of the midlevel shear vector, especially considering that such variations may not be captured by traditional supercell or tornado forecast parameters. We investigate the impact of the 3-6 km shear vector orientation on simulated supercell evolution by systematically varying it across a suite of idealized simulations. We found that the orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector dictates where precipitation loading is maximized in the storms, and thus alters the storm-relative location of downdrafts and outflow surges. When the shear vector is backed, outflow surges generally occur northwest of an updraft, produce greater convergence beneath the updraft, and do not disrupt inflow, meaning that the storm is more likely to persist and produce more tornado-like vortices (TLVs). When the shear vector is veered, outflow surges generally occur north of an updraft, produce less convergence beneath the updraft, and sometimes undercut it with outflow, causing it to tilt at low levels, sometimes leading to storm dissipation. These storms are shorter lived and thus also produce fewer TLVs. Our simulations indicate that the relative orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector may impact supercell longevity and hence the time period over which tornadoes may form.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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    Borehole multi-functional logger for geophysical high-precision monitoring in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and glaciers (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-01
    Description: This article presents the main aspects of the design solutions (based on the application of sensors MEMS and cantilevers), testing and applying of the multi-functional borehole logger ANTTIC (Antarctic Thermo-barometer, Inclinometer, Caliper) for geophysical high-precision monitoring (when simultaneous registering of temperature, pressure, axis inclination angle and radii of borehole cross-sections at 12 points), which is designed specifically for ultra-low temperatures and ultra-high pressures, and to determine an elliptical borehole shape and registration anisotropy factor in deep ice boreholes in the central region of Eastern Antarctica, in the areas of dome A at the Kunlun station (China) and/or of lake Vostok at the Vostok station (Russia).
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    Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October–December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July–September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Niña–like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.
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    Impacts of CP- and EP-El Niño events on the Antarctic sea ice in austral spring (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Based on observational data analyses and idealized modeling experiments, we investigated the distinctive impacts of central Pacific (CP-) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP-) El Niño on the Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in austral spring (September to November). The tropical heat sources associated with EP-El Niño and the co-occurred positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) excite two branches of Rossby wave trains that propagate southeastward, causing an anomalous anticyclone over the eastern Ross-Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. Anomalous northerly (southerly) wind west (east) of the anomalous anticyclone favor poleward (offshore) movements of sea ice, resulting in a sea ice loss (growth) in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas). Meanwhile, the anomalous northerly (southerly) wind also advected warmer and wetter (colder and drier) air into the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas), causing surface warming (cooling) through the enhanced (reduced) surface heat fluxes and thus contributing to the sea ice melting (growth). CP-El Niño, however, forces a Rossby wave train that generates an anomalous anticyclone in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas, 20° west of that caused by EP-El Niño. Consequently, a positive SIC anomaly occurs in the Bellingshausen Sea. A dry version of the Princeton atmospheric general circulation model was applied to verify the roles of anomalous heating in the tropics. The result showed that EP-El Niño can remotely induce an anomalous anticyclone and associated dipole temperature pattern in the Antarctic region, whereas CP-El Niño generates a similar anticyclone pattern with its location shift westward by 20° in longitudes.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-31
    Description: In this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.
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    Five decades of radioglaciology — CORRIGENDUM (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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    The energy flux of three-dimensional waves in the atmosphere: Exact expression for a basic model diagnosis with no equatorial gap (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Description: A model diagnosis for the energy flux of off-equatorial Rossby waves in the atmosphere has previously been done using quasi-geostrophic equations and is singular at the equator. The energy flux of equatorial waves has been separately investigated in previous studies using a space-time spectral analysis or a ray theory. A recent analytical study has derived an exact universal expression for the energy flux which can indicate the direction of the group velocity for linear shallow water waves at all latitudes. This analytical result is extended in the present study to a height-dependent framework for three-dimensional waves in the atmosphere. This is achieved by investigating the classical analytical solution of both equatorial and off-equatorial waves in a Boussinesq fluid. For the horizontal component of the energy flux, the same expression has been obtained between equatorial waves and off-equatorial waves in the height-dependent framework, which is linked to a scalar quantity inverted from the isentropic perturbation of Ertel’s potential vorticity. The expression of the vertical component of the energy flux requires computation of another scalar quantity that may be obtained from the meridional integral of geopotential anomaly in a wavenumber-frequency space. The exact version of the universal expression is explored and illustrated for three-dimensional waves induced by an idealized Madden-Julian Oscillation forcing in a basic model experiment. The zonal and vertical fluxes manifest the energy transfer of both equatorial Kelvin waves and off-equatorial Rossby waves with a smooth transition at around 10°S and around 10°N. The meridional flux of wave energy represents connection between off-equatorial divergence regions and equatorial convergence regions.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
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    The value of weather and climate information to the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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    On the utility of individual tendency output: Revealing interactions between parameterised processes during a marine cold air outbreak (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterisation schemes to represent sub-grid scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognised to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterisation schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic Seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterised shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterisations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterise the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    ENSO Dynamics in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 Climate Models (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-08
    Description: This study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.
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    Inner-core sea surface cooling induced by a moving tropical cyclone (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: As a key to modulate the negative feedback to tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, the TC-induced inner-core sea surface cooling (SSCIC) is poorly understood. Using a linear two-layer theory and OGCM experiments, this study illustrates that the pattern of the inner-core mixing can be well interpreted by the wind-driven currents in the mixed layer (ML). This interpretation is based on: 1) the mixing is triggered by the ML bulk shear instability; 2) the lag of upwelling makes the inner-core bulk shear equivalent to the inner-core wind-driven currents. Overall, the patterns of the inner-core bulk shear and mixing resemble the crescent body of a sickle. As an accumulative result of mixing, the SSCIC is clearly weaker than the maximum cold wake because of the weaker mixing ahead of the inner core and nearly zero mixing in a part of the inner core. The SSCIC induced by a rectilinear-track TC is mainly dominated by the inner-core mixing. Only for a slow-moving case, upwelling and horizontal advection can make minor contributions to the SSCIC by incorporating them with mixing. The SSCIC strength is inversely proportional to the moving speed, suggesting the mixing time rather than the mixing strength dominates the SSCIC. Despite inability in treating the mixing strength, this study elucidates the fundamental dynamical mechanisms of SSCIC, especially emphasizes the different roles of mixing, upwelling and horizontal advection for fast- and slow-moving TCs, and thus provides a good start point to understand SSCIC.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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    Diurnal variation in surface latent heat flux and the effect of diurnal variability on the climatological latent heat flux over the tropical oceans (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Diurnal variation in surface latent heat flux (LHF) and the effects of diurnal variations in LHF-related variables on the climatological LHF are examined using observations from the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array. The estimated amplitude of the climatological diurnal LHF over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic cold tongues is remarkable, with maximum values exceeding 20.0 W m−2. Diurnal variability of sea surface skin temperature (SSTskin) is the primary contributor to the diurnal LHF amplitude. Because the diurnal SSTskin amplitude has an inverse relationship with surface wind speed over the tropical oceans, an inverse spatial pattern between the diurnal LHF amplitude and surface wind speed results. Resolving diurnal variations in the SSTskin and wind improves the estimate of the climatological LHF by properly capturing the daytime SSTskin and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The diurnal SSTskin-associated contribution is large over the warm pool and equatorial cold tongues where low wind speeds tend to cause strong diurnal SSTskin warming, while the magnitude associated with the diurnal winds is large over the highly dynamic environment of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The total diurnal contribution is about 9.0 W m−2 on average over the buoy sites. There appears to be a power function (linear) relationship between the diurnal SSTskin-associated (wind-associated) contribution and surface mean wind speed (wind speed enhancement from diurnal variability). The total contribution from diurnal variability can be estimated accurately from high-frequency surface wind measurements using these relationships.
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    Towards All-sky Assimilation of Microwave Temperature Sounding Channels in Environment Canada’s Global Deterministic Weather Prediction System (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The all-sky assimilation of radiances from microwave instruments is developed in the 4D-EnVar analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSUA) temperature sounding channels 4 and 5 for non-precipitating scenes over the ocean surface is the focus of this study. Cloud-affected radiances are discarded in the ECCC operational data assimilation system due to the limitations of forecast model physics, radiative transfer models, and the strong non-linearity of the observation operator. In addition to using symmetric estimate of innovation standard deviation for quality control, a state-dependent observation error inflation is employed at the analysis stage. The background state clouds are scaled by a factor of 0.5 to compensate for a systematic overestimation by the forecast model, before being used in the observation operator. The changes in the fit of the background state to observations show mixed results. The number of AMSUA channels 4 and 5 assimilated observations in the all-sky experiment is 5-12% higher than in the operational system. The all-sky approach improves temperature analysis when verified against ECMWF operational analysis in the areas where the extra cloud-affected observations were assimilated. Statistically significant reductions in error standard deviation by 1-4% for the analysis and forecasts of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind speed up to maximum 4 days were achieved in the all-sky experiment in the lower troposphere. These improvements result mainly from the use of cloud information for computing the observation-minus-background departures. The operational implementation of all-sky assimilation is planned for Fall 2021.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    A constraint method for supersaturation in a variational data assimilation system (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts, often called a spin-down or spin-up problem, has been a significant issue in numerical weather prediction. This problem is caused by moisture imbalance in the analysis data, and in the case of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA’s) mesoscale data assimilation system JNoVA, we found that the imbalance stems from the existence of unrealistic supersaturated states in the minimal solution of the cost function in JNoVA. Based on the theory of constrained optimization problems, we implemented an exterior penalty function method for the mixing ratio within JNoVA to suppress unrealistic supersaturated states. The advantage of this method is the simplicity of its theory and implementation. The results of twin data assimilation cycle experiments conducted for the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 over Japan show that—with the new method—unrealistic supersaturated states are reduced successfully, negative temperature bias to the observations is alleviated, and a sharper distribution of the mixing ratio is obtained. These changes help to initiate the development of convection at the proper location and improve the fractions skill score (FSS) of precipitation in the early stages of the forecast. From these results, we conclude that the initial shock caused by moisture imbalance is mitigated by implementing the penalty function method, and the new moisture balance has a positive impact on the reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts.
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    Modeling of hot-point drilling in ice (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-01
    Description: Hot-point drills have been widely used for drilling boreholes in glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. A hot-point drill melts ice through the thermal head at its bottom end. Penetration occurs through a close-contact melting (CCM) process, in which the ice is melted, and the meltwater is squeezed out by the exerted force applied on the thermal head. During the drilling, a thin water film is formed to separate the thermal head from the surrounding ice. For the hot-point drill, the rate of penetration (ROP) is influenced by several variables, such as thermal head shape, buoyancy corrected force (BCF), thermal head power (or temperature) and ice temperature. In this study, we developed a model to describe the CCM process, where a constant power or temperature on the working surface of a thermal head is assumed. The model was developed using COMSOL Multiphysics 5.3a software to evaluate the effects of different variables on the CCM process. It was discovered that the effect of thermal head shape and the cone angle of conical thermal head on ROP is less significant, whereas the increase in the BCF and the power (or temperature) of the thermal head can continuously enhance the ROP.
    Print ISSN: 0260-3055
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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    An energy budget framework to understand mechanisms of land–ocean warming contrast induced by increasing greenhouse gases Part I: Near-equilibrium state (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Modeling studies have shown that surface air temperature (SAT) increase in response to an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is larger over land than over ocean. This so-called land–ocean warming contrast, φ, defined as the land–mean SAT change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, is a striking feature of global warming. Small heat capacity over land is unlikely the sole cause because the land-ocean warming contrast is found in the equilibrium state of CO2 doubling experiments.Several different mechanisms have been proposed to explain the land–ocean warming contrast, but the comprehensive understanding has not yet been obtained. In Part I of this study, we propose a framework to diagnose φ based on energy budgets at the top of atmosphere and for the atmosphere, which enables the decomposition of contributions from effective radiative forcing (ERF), climate feedback, heat capacity, and atmospheric energy transport anomaly to φ. Using this framework, we analyzed the SAT response to an abrupt CO2 quadrupling using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models. In the near-equilibrium state (years 121-150), φ is 1.49 ± 0.11, which is primarily induced by the land–ocean difference in ERF and heat capacity. We found that contributions from ERF, feedback, and energy transport anomaly tend to cancel each other, leading to a small inter-model spread of φ compared to the large spread of individual components. In the equilibrium state without heat capacity contribution, ERF and energy transport anomaly are the major contributors to φ, which shows a weak negative correlation with the equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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    Scale-similar structures of homogeneous isotropic non-mirror-symmetric turbulence based on the Lagrangian closure theory (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-06
    Description: We investigate the effect of helicity on the scale-similar structures of homogeneous isotropic and non-mirror-symmetric turbulence based on the Lagrangian renormalised approximation (LRA), which is a self-consistent closure theory proposed by Kaneda (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 107, 1981, pp. 131–145). In this study, we focus on the time scale representing the scale-similar range. For the LRA, the Lagrangian two-time velocity correlation and response function determine the representative time scale. The LRA predicts that both the Lagrangian two-time velocity correlation and response function equation do not explicitly depend on helicity. We assume the extended scale-similar spectra and time scale by considering the helicity dissipation rate. Considering the small-scale structures, the requirements for the energy and helicity fluxes and response function equation to be scale similar, yield the conventional inertial-range power laws and provide the energy and helicity spectra $propto k^{-5/3}$ and the time scale $propto varepsilon ^{-1/3} k^{-2/3}$ , where $varepsilon$ and $k$ denote the energy dissipation rate and wavenumber, respectively. Notably, energy flux can be scale similar only when $k^H /k ll 1$ , where $k^H = varepsilon ^H/varepsilon$ and $varepsilon ^H$ denotes the helicity dissipation rate. This condition makes the energy cascade process in the scale-similar range completely independent of helicity. We also investigate the localness of the interscale interaction in the energy and helicity cascades for the LRA. We demonstrate that the helicity cascade is slightly non-local in scales compared with the energy cascade. This study provides a foundation on the modelling of non-mirror-symmetric turbulent flows.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-7645
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Numerical impacts on tracer transport: Diagnosing the influence of dynamical core formulation and resolution on stratospheric transport (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-07
    Description: Accurate representation of stratospheric trace gas transport is important for ozone modeling and climate projection. Intermodel spread can arise from differences in the representation of transport by the diabatic (overturning) circulation vs. comparatively faster adiabatic mixing by breaking waves, or through numerical errors, primarily diffusion. This study investigates the impact of these processes on transport using an idealised tracer, the age-of-air. Transport is assessed in two state-of-the-art dynamical cores based on fundamentally different numerical formulations: finite volume and spectral element. Integrating the models in free-running and nudged tropical wind configurations reveals the crucial impact of tropical dynamics on stratospheric transport. Using age-budget theory, vertical and horizontal gradients of age allow comparison of the roles of the diabatic circulation, adiabatic mixing, and the numerical diffusive flux. Their respective contribution is quantified by connecting the full 3-d model to the tropical leaky pipe framework of Neu and Plumb (1999). Transport by the two cores varies significantly in the free-running integrations, with the age in the middle stratosphere differing by about 2 years primarily due to differences in adiabatic mixing. When winds in the tropics are constrained, the difference in age drops to about 0.5 years; in this configuration, more than half the difference is due to the representation of the diabatic circulation. Numerical diffusion is very sensitive to the resolution of the core, but does not play a significant role in differences between the cores when they are run at comparable resolution. It is concluded that fundamental differences rooted in dynamical core formulation can account for a substantial fraction of transport bias between climate models.
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    Charge transport equation for bidisperse collisional granular flows with non-equipartitioned fluctuating kinetic energy (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: Starting from the Boltzmann–Enskog kinetic equations, the charge transport equation for bidisperse granular flows with contact electrification is derived with separate mean velocities, total kinetic energies, charges and charge variances for each solid phase. To close locally averaged transport equations, a Maxwellian distribution is presumed for both particle velocity and charge. The hydrodynamic equations for bidisperse solid mixtures are first revisited and the resulting model consisting of the transport equations of mass, momentum, total kinetic energy, which is the sum of the granular temperature and the trace of fluctuating kinetic tensor, and charge is then presented. The charge transfer between phases and the charge build-up within a phase are modelled with local charge and effective work function differences between phases and the local electric field. The revisited hydrodynamic equations and the derived charge transport equation with constitutive relations are assessed through hard-sphere simulations of three-dimensional spatially homogeneous, quasi-one-dimensional spatially inhomogeneous bidisperse granular gases and a three-dimensional segregating bidisperse granular flow with conducting walls.
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    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Response of Tropical Rainfall to Reduced Evapotranspiration Depends on Continental Extent (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: Future projections of precipitation change over tropical land are often enhanced by vegetation responses to CO2 forcing in Earth system models. Projected decreases in rainfall over the Amazon basin and increases over the Maritime Continent are both stronger when plant physiological changes are modeled than if these changes are neglected, but the reasons for this amplification remain unclear. The responses of vegetation to increasing CO2 levels are complex and uncertain, including possible decreases in stomatal conductance and increases in leaf area index due to CO2 fertilization. Our results from an idealized atmospheric general circulation model show that the amplification of rainfall changes occurs even when we use a simplified vegetation parameterization based solely on CO2-driven decreases in stomatal conductance, indicating that this mechanism plays a key role in complex model projections. Based on simulations with rectangular continents we find that reducing terrestrial evaporation to zero with increasing CO2 notably leads to enhanced rainfall over a narrow island. Strong heating and ascent over the island trigger moisture advection from the surrounding ocean. In contrast, over larger continents rainfall depends on continental evaporation. Simulations with two rectangular continents representing South America and Africa reveal that the stronger decrease in rainfall over the Amazon basin seen in Earth system models is due to a combination of local and remote effects, which are fundamentally connected to South America’s size and its location with respect to Africa. The response of tropical rainfall to changes in evapotranspiration is thus connected to size and configuration of the continents.
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    Factorial and discriminant analysis on non-carcass components of Berganês lambs from different sexual classes and crossbreeding (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: The aim of this study was to evaluate the non-carcass components (NCC) of Berganês ecotype lambs of different sexual classes and genotypes using univariate and multivariate statistics, carrying out two experimental trials. In order to evaluate the effects of the sexual class, non-castrated males (BNC), castrated males (BC) and females (BF) of Berganês ecotype lambs were used, with mean initial body weight of 27 ± 3.1 kg. To evaluate crossbreeding, non-castrated male lambs of the genotypes Berganês (BG), Berganês × Santa Inês (BSI) and Berganês × Dorper (BD) were used, as well as the control Dorper × Santa Inês (DSI), all with mean initial body weight of 28 ± 3.8 kg. The weight and yield of the total by-products was higher for BNC. Regarding the genotype, BSI showed higher weight and yield of internal fat, but the weight and yield of the total by-products was higher for BG and BD. In factorial analysis (FA), the NCC, more correlated with empty body weight (EBW) and total weight gain (TWG), showed higher eigenvectors for factor 1. For factor 2, the weights and yields of internal fat and total viscera obtained higher eigenvectors. The discriminant analysis (DA) classified 100% of individuals in their respective sexes and genotypes. Therefore, the FA indicated that, among the NCC evaluated, the weights of liver, kidneys, GIT, skin and feets are determinant for obtaining EBW and TWG. The classification achieved by the DA indicates that the sexual classes and genotypes are heterogeneous.
    Print ISSN: 0021-8596
    Electronic ISSN: 1469-5146
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    Scientific access into Mercer Subglacial Lake: scientific objectives, drilling operations and initial observations (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-08
    Description: The Subglacial Antarctic Lakes Scientific Access (SALSA) Project accessed Mercer Subglacial Lake using environmentally clean hot-water drilling to examine interactions among ice, water, sediment, rock, microbes and carbon reservoirs within the lake water column and underlying sediments. A ~0.4 m diameter borehole was melted through 1087 m of ice and maintained over ~10 days, allowing observation of ice properties and collection of water and sediment with various tools. Over this period, SALSA collected: 60 L of lake water and 10 L of deep borehole water; microbes 〉0.2 μm in diameter from in situ filtration of ~100 L of lake water; 10 multicores 0.32–0.49 m long; 1.0 and 1.76 m long gravity cores; three conductivity–temperature–depth profiles of borehole and lake water; five discrete depth current meter measurements in the lake and images of ice, the lake water–ice interface and lake sediments. Temperature and conductivity data showed the hydrodynamic character of water mixing between the borehole and lake after entry. Models simulating melting of the ~6 m thick basal accreted ice layer imply that debris fall-out through the ~15 m water column to the lake sediments from borehole melting had little effect on the stratigraphy of surficial sediment cores.
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    Deep ice drilling, bedrock coring and dust logging with the Rapid Access Ice Drill (RAID) at Minna Bluff, Antarctica (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: Rapid Access Ice Drill is a new drilling technology capable of quickly accessing the glacial bed of Antarctic ice sheets, retrieving ice core and rock core samples, and providing boreholes for downhole logging of physical properties. Scientific goals include searching for old ice near the glacial bed and sampling subglacial bedrock. During field trials near McMurdo Station on a piedmont glacier at Minna Bluff in the 2019–20 austral summer, we successfully completed a ‘top-to-bottom’ operational sequence in three boreholes by (1) augering through firn, (2) creating a borehole packer seal in non-porous ice, (3) establishing fluid circulation, (4) quickly drilling a borehole in ice at penetration rates up to 1.2 m min−1, (5) acquiring a short ice core at depth, (6) penetrating the glacial bed at a depth of ~677 m, (7) recovering a 3.2 m core of ice, basal till and subglacial bedrock, (8) optically logging the borehole on wireline, (9) testing hydrofracture potential by overpressuring the borehole fluid and (10) operating in an environmentally benign yet rapid field mode. Minna Bluff testing, therefore, demonstrates the effectiveness of this integrated system to drill rapidly through thick ice and penetrate across the glacial bed to take cores of bedrock.
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    Towards Predicting Flood Event Peak Discharge in Ungauged Basins by Learning Universal Hydrological Behaviors with Machine Learning (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-19
    Description: In the hydrological sciences, the outstanding challenge of regional modeling requires to capture common and event-specific hydrologic behaviors driven by rainfall spatial variability and catchment physiography during floods. The overall objective of this study is to develop robust understanding and predictive capability of how rainfall spatial variability influences flood peak discharge relative to basin physiography. A machine learning approach is used on a high-resolution dataset of rainfall and flooding events spanning 10 years, with rainfall events and basins of widely varying characteristics selected across the continental United States. It overcomes major limitations in prior studies that were based on limited observations or hydrological model simulations. This study explores first-order dependencies in the relationships between peak discharge, rainfall variability, and basin physiography, and it sheds light on these complex interactions using a multi-dimensional statistical modeling approach. Amongst different machine learning techniques, XGBoost is used to determine the significant physiographical and rainfall characteristics that influence peak discharge through variable importance analysis. A parsimonious model with low bias and variance is created which can be deployed in the future for flash flood forecasting. The results confirm that although the spatial organization of rainfall within a basin has a major influence on basin response, basin physiography is the primary driver of peak discharge. These findings have unprecedented spatial and temporal representativeness in terms of flood characterization across basins. An improved understanding of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability will aid in robust flash flood characterization as well as with identifying basins which could most benefit from distributed hydrologic modeling.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Evaluation of alfalfa cultivars under rainfed Mediterranean conditions (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Twenty alfalfa cultivars were tested, under rainfed conditions in central Greece, for forage yield, agronomic and nutritive value in order to identify adaptive responses contributing to high resilience and productivity. From 2014 to 2017, five harvests (H1 to H5) per season were conducted. Two cultivars were also grown as irrigated checks. Annual and total dry matter (DMA and DMT) and harvest ratios (RH) were estimated. DMT was reduced by 42.9–48.1% under ambient rainfall compared to irrigated checks, which received 50.2% more water. The seasonal yield distribution demonstrated two contrasting strategies, however, equally effective for high resilience under rainfed conditions. The winter-active imported cultivars were the most resilient in the driest year, potentially due to their ability to exploit autumn rains, whereas the locally adapted genotypes were more productive in summer. The spring harvest ratio (RH1) was more indicative (r = 0.94, P 〈 0.01) of cultivar productivity, compared to plant survival (r = 0.65, P 〈 0.01), whereas the autumn harvest ratio (RH5) was representative of productivity under extreme drought (r = 0.53, P 〈 0.05). RH1 and RH5 were increased by 11.8 and 12.3%, respectively, whereas the summer ratios (RH3, RH4) were reduced by 47.3%, under rainfed v. irrigated conditions. Two Australian cultivars (‘Blue Ace’, ‘Icon’) achieved the highest RH5 suggesting an adaptive response by being more productive in autumn. However, the development of specifically adapted cultivars in terms of higher summer yield and plant survival may be necessary to cope with future climatic changes in the Mediterranean region.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    The effect of increased temperature and CO2 air enrichment on the nutritive value of orchard grass (Dactylis glomerata) in permanent grassland (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: High yielding ruminant livestock require high nutritive value in forage for maintenance, growth and production. Climate change has been documented as impacting on the nutritive value of forage plants. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the impact of increased temperature in combination with CO2-enhancement on the nutritive value of orchard grass (cocksfoot; Dactylis glomerata L.), as a C3 model plant, widespread in mountainous permanent grassland plant communities. Functional traits and forage quality of orchard grass were investigated both under ambient (C0T0) and under simulated, future climate conditions (C2T2) with increased temperature (+3°C) and enhanced CO2 concentration (+300 ppm) under field conditions. Plant samples were taken from each of the three growths over a period of three consecutive years and numerous functional properties and forage quality parameters were determined. Special attention was paid to the determination of water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC), crude protein (CP), non-protein N (NPN) and metabolizable energy (ME) as possible indicators for different climatic conditions. It is hypothesized that (i) functional traits and (ii) forage quality of orchard grass are altered by increased temperature and higher CO2 concentration. The results showed a negative impact of C2T2 compared to C0T0 on tiller height (54.4 v. 70.6 cm) and weight (2.42 v. 3.22 g) as average over cuts and years. The NPN content was lower in C2T2 (312 g/kg CP) compared to C0T0 (339 g/kg CP). In contrast, the WSC content was higher in C2T2 (90.3 g/kg DM) compared to C0T0 (82.5 g/kg DM). Both ME content and digestibility were increased in C2T2 (9.18 ME/kg DM and 68.2%) compared to C0T0 (8.86 ME/kg DM and 65.4%). Concluding, under increased temperature and enhanced CO2, both functional traits and certain nutrients and their fractions appear to change in orchard grass.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    Ice drilling on Skytrain Ice Rise and Sherman Island, Antarctica (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: To understand the long-term climate and glaciological evolution of the ice sheet in the region bordering the Weddell Sea, the British Antarctic Survey has undertaken a series of successful ice core projects drilling to bedrock on Berkner Island, James Ross Island and the Fletcher Promontory. A new project, WACSWAIN, seeks to increase this knowledge by further drilling to bedrock on two further ice rises in this region. In a single-season project, an ice core was recovered to bedrock at 651 m on Skytrain Ice Rise using an ice core drill in a fluid-filled borehole. In a second season, a rapid access drill was used to recover ice chips to 323 m on Sherman Island in a dry borehole, though failing to reach the bedrock which was at an estimated depth of 428 m.
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    Nitrogen use and agronomic efficiency of rainfed wheat in permanent beds as affected by N fertilizer, precipitation and soil nitrate (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is an input that has played an important role in grain yield, N use efficiency (NUE), and agronomic efficiency (AE) that needs to be studied on rainfed wheat grown in permanent beds as a planting system. The objective of this study was to test the effect of N treatments on yield, NUE and AE from 2005 to 2009. The experimental design consisted of three N rates (25, 50 and 75 kg/ha) and four N timing treatments (two single basal applications and two splits), plus a control plot (0 N). Results showed that N rate and N timing treatments had no effect on grain yield, but years, meanwhile Year–N rate interaction affected NUE and AE. Precipitation and post-harvest soil N-NO3 were identified as factors to test the years' effect on yield, NUE and AE. Regression procedures showed that the effect was greater for 25 kg N/ha treatment. The relationships between these variables and precipitation were positive, whereas the opposite occurred with soil N-NO3. NUE and AE, however, showed negative values in crop seasons with moisture constraints from precipitation (90 kg N-NO3/ha). This result indicated that N removal and yield in these years were larger in control plots (0 N) than fertilizer application. Precipitation and soil N-NO3, rather than N treatments, explained most of the yield, NUE and AE variation over years. Therefore, to enhance that effect of weather and soil, further research on alternate N sources is needed.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    Recoverable autonomous sonde for subglacial lake exploration: electronic control system design (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-18
    Description: Subglacial lake exploration is of great interest to the science community. RECoverable Autonomous Sonde (RECAS) provides an exploration tool to measure and sample subglacial lake environments while the subglacial lake remains isolated from the glacier surface and atmosphere. This paper presents an electronic control system design of 200 m prototype of RECAS. The proposed electronic control system consists of a surface system, a downhole control system, and a power transfer and communication system. The downhole control system is the core element of RECAS, and is responsible for sonde status monitoring, sonde motion control, subglacial water sampling and in situ analysis. A custom RS485 temperature sensor was developed to cater for the limited size and depth requirements of the system. We adopted a humidity-based measurement to monitor for a housing leak. This condition is because standard leak detection monitoring of water conductivity may be inapplicable to pure ice in Antarctica. A water sampler control board was designed to control the samplers and monitor the on/off state. A high-definition camera system with built-in storage and self-heating ability was designed to perform the video recording in the subglacial lake. The proposed electronic control system is proven effective after a series of tests.
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    Settling and clustering of snow particles in atmospheric turbulence (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-17
    Description: The effect of turbulence on snow precipitation is not incorporated into present weather forecasting models. Here we show evidence that turbulence is in fact a key influence on both fall speed and spatial distribution of settling snow. We consider three snowfall events under vastly different levels of atmospheric turbulence. We characterize the size and morphology of the snow particles, and we simultaneously image their velocity, acceleration and relative concentration over vertical planes approximately $30 extrm {m}^2$ in area. We find that turbulence-driven settling enhancement explains otherwise contradictory trends between the particle size and velocity. The estimates of the Stokes number and the correlation between vertical velocity and local concentration are consistent with the view that the enhanced settling is rooted in the preferential sweeping mechanism. When the snow vertical velocity is large compared to the characteristic turbulence velocity, the crossing trajectories effect results in strong accelerations. When the conditions of preferential sweeping are met, the concentration field is highly non-uniform and clustering appears over a wide range of scales. These clusters, identified for the first time in a naturally occurring flow, display the signature features seen in canonical settings: power-law size distribution, fractal-like shape, vertical elongation and large fall speed that increases with the cluster size. These findings demonstrate that the fundamental phenomenology of particle-laden turbulence can be leveraged towards a better predictive understanding of snow precipitation and ground snow accumulation. They also demonstrate how environmental flows can be used to investigate dispersed multiphase flows at Reynolds numbers not accessible in laboratory experiments or numerical simulations.
    Print ISSN: 0022-1120
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    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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    Development of a clean hot water drill to access Subglacial Lake CECs, West Antarctica (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-25
    Description: Recent drilling successes on Rutford Ice Stream in West Antarctica demonstrate the viability of hot water drilling subglacial access holes to depths 〉2000 m. Having techniques to access deep subglacial environments reliably paves the way for subglacial lake exploration beneath the thick central West Antarctic Ice Sheet. An ideal candidate lake, overlain by ~2650 m of ice, identified by Centro de Estudios Científicos (CECs), Chile, has led to collaboration with British Antarctic Survey to access Subglacial Lake CECs (SLCECs). To conform with the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research code of conduct, which provides a guide to responsible scientific exploration and stewardship of these pristine systems, any access drilling must minimise all aspects of contamination and disturbance of the subglacial environment. To meet these challenges, along with thicker ice and 2000 m elevation, pumping and water treatment systems developed for the Subglacial Lake Ellsworth project, together with new diesel generators, additional water heating and longer drill hose, are currently being integrated with the BEAMISH hot water drill. A dedicated test season near SLCECs will commission the new clean hot water drill, with testing and validation of all clean operating procedures. A subsequent season will then access SLCECs cleanly.
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    Evaluation of NOAA National Water Model Parameter Calibration in Semi-Arid Environments Prone to Channel Infiltration (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-02
    Description: The NOAA National Water Model (NWM), maintained and executed by the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction, provides operational hydrological guidance throughout the Contiguous United States. Based on the WRF-Hydro model architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the NWM was recently modified for semi-arid domains, by permitting it to explicitly resolve infiltration from ephemeral channels into the underlying channel bed as an added model sink term. To analyze the added value of channel infiltration in semi-arid environments, we calibrated NWM v2.1 (with the channel infiltration function) to 56 independent basins in the western CONUS, following identical calibration methods as the pre-operational NWM v2.1 (not including channel infiltration). Calibration of the model consists of two parts, including 1) calibration of channel infiltration only with other parameters set to the calibrated parameters used for pre-operational NWM v2.1 and 2) calibration of all parameters including channel infiltration with settings otherwise equivalent to the calibration of NWM v2.1. The calibrated channel-infiltration enhanced NWM improves predictive skill compared to the control NWM in 85% of evaluated basins, for the calibration period. The current NWM settings for physical processes and the biases of the calibration scheme limit model performance in semi-arid environments. To explore whether channel infiltration paired with an alternative calibration scheme could address these limitations, NWM v2.1 was calibrated with a new objective function in selected basins. We found that this updated objective function could ameliorate model biases in some semi-arid environments.
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    Soybean yield in integrated crop–livestock system in comparison to soybean–maize succession system (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-01
    Description: Among integrated crop–livestock systems, forage succession is an advantageous strategy for the use of pasture to feed cattle in periods of low rainfall, as well as for the generation of biomass for the no-till system for the next crop. Different species have different abilities to accumulate nutrients in their biomass, which are then released into the soil through the decomposition of crop residues. This study aimed to evaluate soybean yield in an integrated crop–livestock system in comparison to soybean–maize succession system through the production, decomposition and nutrient accumulation in the biomass. The experiment had a randomized block design with four replicates. The treatments were three cropping systems: integrated crop–livestock with Paiaguas palisadegrass (Brachiaria brizantha cv. BRS Paiaguas), integrated crop–livestock with Tamani guinea grass (Panicum maximum cv. BRS Tamani) and maize grown in succession to soybean. The results showed that the use of the integrated crop–livestock system in the form of forage succession provided greater soil cover and nutrient cycling as a result of the better utilization of the animal's excreta, than the cropping of maize in succession and resulted in higher soybean productivity, thus contributing to agricultural sustainability. Paiaguas palisadegrass and Tamani guinea grass showed a C:N ratio greater than 30:1, indicating slow decomposition of plant residues. The forages accumulated amounts of nutrients in their biomass that met the soybean demand, resulting in higher grain yield.
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    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    Drilling the new 5G-5 branch hole at Vostok Station for collecting a replicate core of old meteoric ice (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-21
    Description: Recent studies have shown that stratigraphically disturbed meteoric ice bedded at Vostok Station between 3318 and 3539 m dates back to 1.2 Ma BP and possibly beyond. As part of the VOICE (Vostok Oldest Ice Challenge) initiative, a new deviation from parent hole 5G-1 was made at depths of 3270–3291 m in the 2018/19 austral season with the aim of obtaining a replicate core of the old ice. Sidetracking was initiated using the standard KEMS-132 electromechanical drill routinely employed for deep ice coring at Vostok, without significant changes to its initial design. Here we describe the method and operating procedures for replicate coring at a targeted depth in an existing slant hole, involving the use of a cable-suspended electromechanical drill. The design of the milling cutter head used for sidetracking is presented. The performance characteristics and the experience of drilling branch-hole 5G-5 at Vostok are described and discussed.
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    Recoverable Autonomous Sonde for subglacial lakes exploration: heating control system design (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-29
    Description: Drilling and sampling are the most direct and effective methods available to study Antarctic subglacial lakes. Based on the Philberth probe, a Recoverable Autonomous Sonde (RECAS) allows for in situ lake water measurement and sampling, through the addition of an upper thermal tip and a cable recoiling mechanism. RECAS-200, a prototype of RECAS, has a drilling depth of 200 m, a surface supply voltage of 800 VAC and a downhole power of ~9.6 kW during drilling. In this study, a heating control system for RECAS-200 was designed. The system avoids the need for high-power step-down converters, by separating heating power from control power, thereby reducing the overall weight of the probe and avoiding the need to increase cable diameter. We also introduce a self-developed, small, solid-state, 800 VAC power regulator and a fuzzy PID temperature control algorithm. Their purpose was to manage the power adjustment of each heating element and to provide closed-loop temperature control of certain heating elements which can easily burn out due to overheating. Test results indicated that the proposed RECAS-200 heating control system met all our design specifications and could be easily assembled into the RECAS-200 probe.
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    Optimal fluid stretching for mixing-limited reactions in rough channel flows (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-14
    Description: We study the reactive displacement of two miscible fluids in channel flows and establish a quantitative link between fluid stretching and chemical reactivity. At the mixing interface, the two fluids react according to the instantaneous irreversible bimolecular reaction $A + B ightarrow C$ . We simulate the advection–diffusion–reaction problem using a random walk based reactive particle method that is free of numerical dispersion. The relative contributions of stretching and diffusion to mixing-limited reaction is controlled by changing the Péclet number, and the channel roughness is also systematically varied. We observe optimal ranges of fluid stretching that maximize reactivity, which are captured by a Lagrangian stretching measure based on an effective time period that honours the stretching history. We show that the optimality originates from the competition between the enhanced mixing by fluid stretching and the mass depletion of the reactants. We analytically derive the spatial distribution of reaction products using a lamellar formulation and successfully predict the optimal ranges of fluid stretching, which are consistent across different levels of channel roughness. These findings provide a mechanistic understanding of how the interplay between fluid stretching, diffusion and channel roughness controls mixing-limited reactions in rough channel flows, and show how reaction hot spots can be predicted from the concept of optimal fluid stretching.
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    A Coffee Yield Next-Generation Forecast System for Rain-fed Plantations: the Case of the Samalá Watershed in Guatemala (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-02
    Description: The provision of climate services has the potential to generate adaptive capacity and help coffee farmers become or remain profitable by integrating climate information in a risk-management framework. Yet, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to identify the local demand for climate information, the relationships between coffee yield and climate variables, farmers’ perceptions, and to examine the potential actions that can be realistically put in place by farmers at the local level. In this study, we assessed the climate information demands from coffee farmers and their perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield in the Samalá watershed in Guatemala. After co-identifying the related candidate climate predictors, we propose an objective, flexible forecast system for coffee yield based on precipitation. The system, known as NextGen, analyzes multiple historical climate drivers to identify candidate predictors, and provides both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the target season. To illustrate the approach, a NextGen implementation is conducted in the Samalá watershed in southwestern Guatemala. The results suggest that accumulated June-July-August precipitation provides the highest predictive skill associated with coffee yield for this region. In addition to a formal cross-validated skill assessment, retrospective forecasts for the period 1989-2009 were compared to agriculturalists’ perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield at the farm level. We conclude with examples of how demand-based climate service provision in this location can inform adaptation strategies like optimum shade, pest control, and fertilization schemes months in advance. These potential adaptation strategies were validated by local agricultural technicians at the study site.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    Evolution of the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy: implications on Fermi paradox (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 314-319
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    Onshore thermokarst primes subsea permafrost degradation (2021)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley-Blackwell, ISSN: 0094-8276
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: The response of permafrost to submergence can vary between ice-rich late Pleistocene deposits and the thermokarst basins that thawed out during the Holocene. We hypothesize that inundated Alases offshore thaw faster than submerged Yedoma. To test this hypothesis, we estimated depths to the top of ice-bearing permafrost offshore of the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeast Siberia using electrical resistivity surveys. The surveys traversed submerged lagoon deposits, drained and refrozen Alas deposits, and undisturbed Yedoma from the coastline to 373 m offshore. While the permafrost degradation rates of the submerged Yedoma were in the range of similar sites, the submerged Alas permafrost degradation rates were up to 170% faster. Given the abundance of thermokarst basins and lakes along parts of the Arctic coastline, its effect on subsea permafrost degradation must be similarly prevalent. Remote sensing analyses suggest that 54% of lagoons wider than 500 m originated in thermokarst basins.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    Greenhouse gas production and lipid biomarker distribution in Yedoma and Alas thermokarst lake sediments in Eastern Siberia (2021)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Global Change Biology, Wiley-Blackwell, ISSN: 1354-1013
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Permafrost thaw leads to thermokarst lake formation and talik growth tens of meters deep, enabling microbial decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter (OM). We analyzed two 17-m-long thermokarst lake sediment cores taken in Central Yakutia, Russia. One core was from an Alas lake in a Holocene thermokarst basin that underwent multiple lake generations, and the second core from a young Yedoma upland lake (formed ca. 70 years ago) whose sediments have thawed for the first time since deposition. This comparison provides a glance into OM fate in thawing Yedoma deposits. We analyzed total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, n-alkanes concentrations, and bacterial and archaeal membrane markers. Furthermore, we conducted one-year-long incubations (4 °C, dark) and measured anaerobic carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production. The sediments from both cores contained little TOC (0.7±0.4 wt%), but DOC values were relatively high, with highest values in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments (1620 mg L-1). Cumulative GHG production after one year was highest in the Yedoma lake sediments (226±212 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 28±36 μg CH4-C gdw-1) and 3 and 1.5 times lower in the Alas lake sediments, respectively (75±76 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 19±29 μg CH4-C gdw-1). The highest CO2 production in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments likely results from decomposition of readily bioavailable OM, while highest CH4 production in the non-frozen top sediments of this core suggests that methanogenic communities established upon thaw. The lower GHG production in the non-frozen Alas lake sediments resulted from advanced OM decomposition during Holocene talik development. Furthermore, we found that drivers of CO2 and CH4 production differ following thaw. Our results suggest that GHG production from TOC-poor mineral deposits, which are widespread throughout the Arctic, can be substantial. Therefore, our novel data are relevant for vast ice-rich permafrost deposits vulnerable to thermokarst formation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    Thermo‐erosional valleys in Siberian ice‐rich permafrost (2021)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Wiley-Blackwell, 32(1), pp. 59-75, ISSN: 1045-6740
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Thermal erosion is a major mechanism of permafrost degradation, resulting in characteristic landforms. We inventory thermo-erosional valleys in ice-rich coastal lowlands adjacent to the Siberian Laptev Sea based on remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and field investigations for a first regional assessment of their spatial distribution and characteristics. Three study areas with similar geological (Yedoma Ice Complex) but diverse geomorphological conditions vary in valley areal extent, incision depth, and branching geometry. The most extensive valley networks are incised deeply (up to 35 m) into the broad inclined lowland around Mamontov Klyk. The flat, low-lying plain forming the Buor Khaya Peninsula is more degraded by thermokarst and characterized by long valleys of lower depth with short tributaries. Small, isolated Yedoma Ice Complex remnants in the Lena River Delta predominantly exhibit shorter but deep valleys. Based on these hydrographical network and topography assessments, we discuss geomorphological and hydrological connections to erosion processes. Relative catchment size along with regional slope interact with other Holocene relief-forming processes such as thermokarst and neotectonics. Our findings suggest that thermo-erosional valleys are prominent, hitherto overlooked permafrost degradation landforms that add to impacts on biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and hydrology in the degrading Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    Frequency-Dependent Estimation of Effective Spatial Degrees of Freedom (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
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    A dual-tube sampling technique for snowpack studies (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, Cambridge University Press, 67(261), pp. 84-90
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-22
    Description: The validity of any glaciological paleo proxy used to interpret climate records is based on the level of understanding of their transfer from the atmosphere into the ice sheet and their recording in the snowpack. Large spatial noise in snow properties is observed, as the wind constantly redistributes the deposited snow at the surface routed by the local topography. To increase the signal-tonoise ratio and getting a representative estimate of snow properties with respect to the high spatial variability, a large number of snow profiles is needed. However, the classical way of obtaining profiles via snow-pits is time and energy-consuming, and thus unfavourable for large surface sampling programs. In response, we present a dual-tube technique to sample the upper metre of the snowpack at a variable depth resolution with high efficiency. The developed device is robust and avoids contact with the samples by exhibiting two tubes attached alongside each other in order to (1) contain the snow core sample and (2) to access the bottom of the sample, respectively. We demonstrate the performance of the technique through two case studies in East Antarctica where we analysed the variability of water isotopes at a 100 m and 5 km spatial scales.
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