ALBERT

Description: Numerical simulations based on the ACDM model of cosmology predict a large number of as yet unobserved Galactic dark matter satellites. We report the results of a Large Area Telescope (LAT) search for these satellites via the gamma-ray emission expected from the annihilation of weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Some dark matter satellites are expected to have hard gamma-ray spectra, finite angular extents, and a lack of counterparts at other wavelengths. We sought to identify LAT sources with these characteristics, focusing on gamma-ray spectra consistent with WIMP annihilation through the bb(sup raised bar) channel. We found no viable dark matter satellite candidates using one year of data, and we present a framework for interpreting this result in the context of numerical simulations to constrain the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section for a conventional 100 Ge V WIMP annihilating through the bb(sup raised bar) channel.

Description: It is widely believed that the late stages of evolution for Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars are influenced by the presence of binary companions. Unfortunately, there is a lack of direct observational evidence of binarity. However, more recently, strong indirect evidence comes from the discovery of UV emission in a subsample of these objects (fuvAGB stars). AGB stars are comparatively cool objects (〈 or =3000 K), thus their fluxes falls off drastically for wavelengths 3000 Angstroms and shorter. Therefore, ultraviolet observations offer an important, new technique for detecting the binary companions and/or associated accretion activity. We develop new models of UV emission from fuvAGB stars constrained by GALEX photometry and spectroscopy of these objects. We compare the GALEX UV grism spectra of the AGB M7 star EY Hya to predictions using the spectral synthesis code Cloudy, specifically investigating the ultraviolet wavelength range (1344-2831 Angstroms). We investigate models composed of contributions from a photoionized "hot spot" due to accretion activity around the companion, and "chromospheric" emission from collisionally ionized plasma, to fit the UV observations.

Description: Climate models are deterministic, mathematical descriptions of the physics of climate. Confidence in predictions of future climate is increased if the physics are verifiably correct. A necessary, (but not sufficient) condition is that past and present climate be simulated well. Quantify the likelihood that a (summary statistic computed from a) set of observations arises from a physical system with the characteristics captured by a model generated time series. Given a prior on models, we can go further: posterior distribution of model given observations.

Description: We used archival Spitzer Space Telescope mid-infrared data to search for young stellar objects (YSOs) in the immediate vicinity of two bright-rimmed clouds, BRC 27 (part of CMa R1) and BRC 34 (part of the IC 1396 complex). These regions both appear to be actively forming young stars, perhaps triggered by the proximate OB stars. In BRC 27, we find clear infrared excesses around 22 of the 26 YSOs or YSO candidates identified in the literature, and identify 16 new YSO candidates that appear to have IR excesses. In BRC 34, the one literature-identified YSO has an IR excess, and we suggest 13 new YSO candidates in this region, including a new Class I object. Considering the entire ensemble, both BRCs are likely of comparable ages, within the uncertainties of small number statistics and without spectroscopy to confirm or refute the YSO candidates. Similarly, no clear conclusions can yet be drawn about any possible age gradients that may be present across the BRCs.

Description: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent work has revealed an ENSO-induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this feature using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show composition sensitivity in observations from NASA s Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) and a simulation to provide insight into the vertical structure of these ENSO-induced ozone changes. The ozone changes due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the extra-polar upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in MLS measurements will also be discussed.

Description: No abstract available

Description: AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. The Goddard DISC has analyzed AIRS/AMSU observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, using the AIRS Science Team Version-S retrieval algorithm. These products have been used by many researchers to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. The AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval, which will become operation in mid-20l2, contains many significant theoretical and practical improvements compared to Version-5 which should further enhance the utility of AIRS products for both climate and weather applications. In particular, major changes have been made with regard to the algOrithms used to 1) derive surface skin temperature and surface spectral emissivity; 2) generate the initial state used to start the retrieval procedure; 3) compute Outgoing Longwave Radiation; and 4) determine Quality Control. This paper will describe these advances found in the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm and demonstrate the improvement of AIRS Version-6 products compared to those obtained using Version-5,

Description: Multi-fluid modelling of the outflowing gases which sublimate from cometary nuclei as they approach the Sun is necessary for understanding the important physical and chemical processes occurring in this complex plasma. Coma chemistry models can be employed to interpret observational data and to ultimately determine chemical composition and structure of the nuclear ices and dust. We describe a combined chemical and hydrodynamical model [1] in which differential equations for the chemical abundances and the energy balance are solved as a function of distance from the cometary nucleus. The presence of negative ions (anions) in cometary comae is known from Giotto mass spectrometry of 1P/Halley. The anions O(-), OH(-), C(-), CH(-) and CN(-) have been detected, as well as unidentified anions with masses 22-65 and 85-110 amu [2]. Organic molecular anions such as C4H(-) and C6H(-) are known to have a significant impact on the charge balance of interstellar clouds and circumstellar envelopes and have been shown to act as catalysts for the gas-phase synthesis of larger hydrocarbon molecules in the ISM, but their importance in cometary comae has not yet been fully explored. We present details of new models for the chemistry of cometary comae that include atomic and molecular anions and calculate the impact of these anions on the coma physics and chemistry af the coma.

Description: Titan's thick atmosphere and volatile surface cause it to respond to big impacts like the one that produced the prominent Menrva impact basin in a somewhat Earth-like manner. Menrva was big enough to raise the surface temperature by 100 K. If methane in the regolith is generally as abundant as it was at the Huygens landing site, Menrva would have been big enough to double the amount of methane in the atmosphere. The extra methane would have drizzled out of the atmosphere over hundreds of years. Conditions may have been favorable for clathrating volatiles such as ethane. Impacts can also create local crater lakes set in warm ice but these quickly sink below the warm ice; whether the cryptic waters quickly freeze by mixing with the ice crust or whether they long endure under the ice remains a open question. Bigger impacts can create shallow liquid water oceans at the surface. If Titan's crust is made of water ice, the putative Hotei impact (a possible 800-1200 km diameter basin, Soderblom et al 2009) would have raised the average surface temperature to 350-400 K. Water rain would have fallen and global meltwaters would have averaged 50 m to as much as 500 m deep. The meltwaters may not have lasted more than a few decades or centuries at most, but are interesting to consider given Titan's organic wealth.

Description: The present study aims at assessing a possible new way to reveal the properties of lightning flash, using spectrophotometric data obtained by FORMOSAT-2/ISUAL which is the first spaceborne multicolor lightning detector. The ISUAL data was analyzed in conjunction with ground ]based electromagnetic data obtained by Duke magnetic field sensors, NLDN, North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) electric field antennas. We first classified the observed events into cloud ]to ]ground (CG) and intra ]cloud (IC) lightning based on the Duke and NLDN measurements and analyzed ISUAL data to clarify their optical characteristics. It was found that the ISUAL optical waveform of CG lightning was strongly correlated with the current moment waveform, suggesting that it is possible to evaluate the electrical properties of lightning from satellite optical measurement to some extent. The ISUAL data also indicated that the color of CG lightning turned to red at the time of return stroke while the color of IC pulses remained unchanged. Furthermore, in one CG event which was simultaneously detected by ISUAL and LMA, the observed optical emissions slowly turned red as the altitude of optical source gradually decreased. All of these results indicate that the color of lightning flash depends on the source altitude and suggest that spaceborne optical measurement could be a new tool to discriminate CG and IC lightning. In the presentation, we will also show results on the comparison between the ISUAL and KSC electric field data to clarify characteristics of each lightning process such as preliminary breakdown, return stroke, and subsequent upward illumination.

Description: An 8-10 station Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network is being deployed in the vicinity of Sao Paulo to create the SP-LMA for total lightning measurements in association with the international CHUVA [Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)] field campaign. Besides supporting CHUVA science/mission objectives and the Sao Luiz do Paraitinga intensive operation period (IOP) in November-December 2011, the SP-LMA will support the generation of unique proxy data for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), both sensors on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R), presently under development and scheduled for a 2015 launch. The proxy data will be used to develop and validate operational algorithms so that they will be ready for use on "day1" following the launch of GOES-R. A preliminary survey of potential sites in the vicinity of Sao Paulo was conducted in December 2009 and January 2010, followed up by a detailed survey in July 2010, with initial network deployment scheduled for October 2010. However, due to a delay in the Sao Luiz do Paraitinga IOP, the SP-LMA will now be installed in July 2011 and operated for one year. Spacing between stations is on the order of 15-30 km, with the network "diameter" being on the order of 30-40 km, which provides good 3-D lightning mapping 150 km from the network center. Optionally, 1-3 additional stations may be deployed in the vicinity of Sao Jos dos Campos.

Description: The lightning jump algorithm has a robust history in correlating upward trends in lightning to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The algorithm uses the correlation between the physical principles that govern an updraft's ability to produce microphysical and kinematic conditions conducive for electrification and its role in the development of severe weather conditions. Recent work has demonstrated that the lightning jump algorithm concept holds significant promise in the operational realm, aiding in the identification of thunderstorms that have potential to produce severe or hazardous weather. However, a large amount of work still needs to be completed in spite of these positive results. The total lightning jump algorithm is not a stand-alone concept that can be used independent of other meteorological measurements, parameters, and techniques. For example, the algorithm is highly dependent upon thunderstorm tracking to build lightning histories on convective cells. Current tracking methods show that thunderstorm cell tracking is most reliable and cell histories are most accurate when radar information is incorporated with lightning data. In the absence of radar data, the cell tracking is a bit less reliable but the value added by the lightning information is much greater. For optimal application, the algorithm should be integrated with other measurements that assess storm scale properties (e.g., satellite, radar). Therefore, the recent focus of this research effort has been assessing the lightning jump's relation to thunderstorm tracking, meteorological parameters, and its potential uses in operational meteorology. Furthermore, the algorithm must be tailored for the optically-based GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), as what has been observed using Very High Frequency Lightning Mapping Array (VHF LMA) measurements will not exactly translate to what will be observed by GLM due to resolution and other instrument differences. Herein, we present some of the promising aspects and challenges encountered in utilizing objective tracking and GLM proxy data, as well as recent results that demonstrate the value added information gained by combining the lightning jump concept with traditional meteorological measurements.

Description: The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Description: Past and present efforts by the authors to further understanding of the ceramic matrix composite (CMC) material used in the valve components of the Orion Launch Abort System (LAS) Attitude Control Motor (ACM) will be presented. The LAS is designed to quickly lift the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) away from its launch vehicle in emergency abort scenarios. The ACM is a solid rocket motor which utilizes eight throttleable nozzles to maintain proper orientation of the CEV during abort operations. Launch abort systems have not been available for use by NASA on manned launches since the last Apollo ]Saturn launch in 1975. The CMC material, carbon-carbon/silicon-carbide (C/C-SiC), is manufactured by Fiber Materials, Inc. and consists of a rigid 4-directional carbon-fiber tow weave reinforced with a mixed carbon plus SiC matrix. Several valve and full system (8-valve) static motor tests have been conducted by the motor vendor. The culmination of these tests was the successful flight test of the Orion LAS Pad Abort One (PA ]1) vehicle on May 6, 2010. Due to the fast pace of the LAS development program, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center assisted the LAS community by performing a series of material and component evaluations using fired hardware from valve and full ]system development motor tests, and from the PA-1 flight ACM motor. Information will be presented on the structure of the C/C-SiC material, as well as the efficacy of various non ]destructive evaluation (NDE) techniques, including but not limited to: radiography, computed tomography, nanofocus computed tomography, and X-ray transmission microscopy. Examinations of the microstructure of the material via scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy will also be discussed. The findings resulting from the subject effort are assisting the LAS Project in risk assessments and in possible modifications to the final ACM operational design.

Description: Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is an international satellite mission to provide nextgeneration observations of rain and snow worldwide every three hours. NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch a "Core" satellite carrying advanced instruments that will set a new standard for precipitation measurements from space. The data they provide will be used to unify precipitation measurements made by an international network of partner satellites to quantify when, where, and how much it rains or snows around the world. The GPM mission will help advance our understanding of Earth's water and energy cycles, improve the forecasting of extreme events that cause natural disasters, and extend current capabilities of using satellite precipitation information to directly benefit society. Building upon the successful legacy of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), GPM's next-generation global precipitation data will lead to scientific advances and societal benefits within a range of hydrologic fields including natural hazards, ecology, public health and water resources. This talk will highlight some examples from TRMM's IS-year history within these applications areas as well as discuss some existing challenges and present a look forward for GPM's contribution to applications in hydrology.

Description: In May 1983 the European Space Agency launched EXOSAT, its first X-ray astronomy observatory. Even though it lasted only 3 short years, this mission brought not only new capabilities that resulted in unexpected discoveries, but also a pioneering approach to operations and archiving that changed X-ray astronomy from observations led by small instrument teams, to an observatory approach open to the entire community through a guest observer program. The community use of the observatory was supported by a small dedicated team of scientists, the precursor to the data center activities created to support e.g. Chandra and XMM-Newton. The new science capabilities of EX OS AT included a 90 hr highly eccentric high earth orbit that allow unprecedented continuous coverage of sources as well as direct communication with the satellite that allowed real time decisions to respond to unexpected events through targets of opportunity. The advantages of this orbit demonstrated by EXOSAT resulted in Chandra and XMM-Newton selecting similar orbits. The three instruments on board the EXOSAT observatory were complementary, designed to give complete coverage over a wide energy band pass of 0.05-50 keY. An onboard processor could be programmed to give multiple data modes that could be optimized in response to science discoveries: These new capabilities resulted in many new discoveries including the first comprehensive study of AGN variability, new orbital periods in X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables, new black holes, quasi-periodic oscillations from neutron stars and black holes and broad band X-ray spectroscopy. The EXOSAT team generated a well-organized database accessible worldwide over the nascent internet, allowing remote selection of data products, making samples and undertaking surveys from the data. The HEASARC was established by NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in 1990 as the repository of NASA X-ray and Gamma-ray data. The proven EXOSAT database system became the core of the HEASARC infrastructure. The HEASARC pioneered many concepts now taken for granted including standardized formats using FITS files, restoring data from earlier missions, multi-mission analysis tools and a searchable archive over the world wide web.

Description: In this work, we use Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA data to determine the thermal structure of supra-arcade plasma in two solar flares. The first flare is a Ml.2 flare that occurred on November 5, 2010 on the east limb. This flare was one of a series of flares from AR 11121, published in Reeves & Golub (2011). The second flare is an XI.7 flare that occurred on January 27, 2012 on the west limb. This flare exhibits visible supra-arcade downflows (SADs), where the November 2010 flare does not. For these two flares we combine XRT and AlA data to calculate DEMs of each pixel in the supra-arcade plasma, giving insight into the temperature and density structures in the fan of plasma above the post-flare arcade. We find in each case that the supra-arcade plasma is around 10 MK, and there is a marked decrease in the emission measure in the SADs. We also compare the DEMs calculated with the combined AIA/XRT dataset to those calculated using AIA alone.

Description: We present an investigation on multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on surface radiation using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to long-term data records. We focus on a 28-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2007, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations and ground-based remote sensing and in-situ measurements have become available. We analyze the long-term global and regional aerosol optical depth and concentration trends and their relationship to the changes of emissions" and assess the role aerosols play in the multi-decadal change of solar radiation reaching the surface (known as "dimming" or "brightening") at different regions of the world, including the major anthropogenic source regions (North America, Europe, Asia) that have been experiencing considerable changes of emissions, dust and biomass burning regions that have large interannual variabilities, downwind regions that are directly affected by the changes in the source area, and remote regions that are considered to representing "background" conditions.

Description: It has been proposed that ultraluminous infrared galaxies (ULIRGs) pass through a luminous starburst phase, followed by a dust-enshrouded AGN phase, and finally evolve into optically bright "naked" quasars once they shed their gas/dust reservoirs through powerful wind events. We present the results of our recent 21- cm HI survey of 21 merger remnants with the Green Bank Telescope. These remnants were selected from the QUEST (Quasar/ULIRG Evolution Study) sample of ULIRGs and PG quasars; our targets are all bolometrically dominated by AGN and sample all phases of the proposed ULIRG -〉 IR-excess quasar -〉 optical quasar sequence. We explore whether there is an evolutionary connection between ULIRGs and quasars by looking for the occurrence of HI absorption tracing neutral gas outflows; our results will allow us to identify where along the sequence the majority of a merger's gas reservoir is expelled.

Description: We analyze the ROSAT PSPC soft X-ray image of the Moon taken on 29 June 1990 by examining the radial profile of the count rate in three wedges, two wedges (one north and one south) 13-32 degrees off (19 degrees wide) the terminator towards the dark side and one wedge 38 degrees wide centered on the anti-solar direction. The radial profiles of both the north and the south wedges show substantial limb brightening that is absent in the 38 degree wide antisolar wedge. An analysis of the count rate increase associated with the limb brightening shows that its magnitude is consistent with that expected due to solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) with the tenuous lunar atmosphere. Along with Mars, Venus, and Earth, the Moon represents another solar system body at which solar wind charge exchange has been observed. This technique can be used to explore the solar wind-lunar interaction.

Description: Continental-scale offline simulations with a land surface model are used to address two important issues in the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which the downscaling of seasonal precipitation forecasts, if it could be done accurately, would improve streamflow forecasts. The reduction in streamflow forecast skill (with forecasted streamflow measured against observations) associated with adding noise to a soil moisture field is found to be, to first order, proportional to the average reduction in the accuracy of the soil moisture field itself. This result has implications for streamflow forecast improvement under satellite-based soil moisture measurement programs. In the second and more idealized ("perfect model") analysis, precipitation downscaling is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only if two conditions are met: (i) evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance, and (ii) the subgrid spatial variance of precipitation is adequately large. In the large-scale continental region studied (the conterminous United States), these two conditions are met in only a somewhat limited area.

Description: Anomalously fractionated isotopic material is found in many primitive Solar System objects, such as meteorites and comets. It is thought, in some cases, to trace interstellar matter that was incorporated into the Solar Nebula without undergoing significant processing. We will present the results of models of the nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon fractionation chemistry in dense molecular clouds, particularly in cores where substantial freeze-out of molecules on to dust has occurred. The range of fractionation ratios expected in different interstellar molecules will be discussed and compared to the ratios measured in molecular clouds, comets and meteoritic material. These studies make several predictions that can be tested in the near future by high-resolution molecular line observations with ALMA.

Description: Research has shown that the snow season in the Northern Hemisphere has been getting shorter in recent decades, consistent with documented global temperature increases. Specifically, the snow is melting earlier in the spring allowing for a longer growing season and associated land-cover changes. Here we focus on North America. Using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Radiometer (MODIS) cloud-gap-filled standard snow-cover data product we can detect a trend toward earlier spring snowmelt in the approx 12 years since the MODIS launch. However, not all areas in North America show earlier spring snowmelt over the study period. We show examples of springtime snowmelt over North America, beginning in March 2000 and extending through the winter of 2012 for all of North America, and for various specific areas such as the Wind River Range in Wyoming and in the Catskill Mountains in New York. We also compare our approx 12-year trends with trends derived from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab snow cover climate-data record.

Description: Just two years ago, NASA astronauts performed a challenging and flawless final Space Shuttle servicing mission to the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope. With science instruments repaired on board and two new ones installed, the observatory. is more powerful now than ever before. I will show the dramatic highlights of the servicing mission and present some of the early scientific results from the refurbished telescope. Its high sensitivity and multi-wavelength capabilities are revealing the highest redshift galaxies ever seen, as well as details of the cosmic web of intergalactic medium, large scale structure formation, solar system bodies, and stellar evolution. Enlightening studies of dark matter, dark energy, and exoplanet atmospheres add to the profound contributions to astrophysics that are being made with Hubble, setting a critical stage for future observatories such as the James Webb Space Telescope.

Description: Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (〉10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Description: This presentation discusses an approach to estimate model error using observation residuals. Based on the sequential fixed-lag smoother; we introduce a diagnostic procedure to allow estimating model error over a dense observing system. Optimality considerations are examined in light of the sequential results. The procedure is re-interpreted in the language of variational assimilation, such as 4d-Var. Illustrations of the approach are given by studying both identical-twin and fraternal-twin experimental settings for a system governed by Lorenz-type dynamics. Preliminary results by looking at observation residual statistics for the ECMWF data assimilation system are also shown. The presentation will be part of a series of discussions on issues related to four-dimensional data assimilation under weak-constraint and methodologies to estimate model error.

Description: Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Description: The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center located at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has been conducting testbed activities aimed at transitioning satellite products to National Weather Service operational end users for the last 10 years. SPoRT is a NASA/NOAA funded project that has set the bar for transition of products to operational end users through a paradigm of understanding forecast challenges and forecaster needs, displaying products in end users decision support systems, actively assessing the operational impact of these products, and improving products based on forecaster feedback. Aiming for quality partnerships rather than a large quantity of data users, SPoRT has become a community leader in training operational forecasters on the use of up-and-coming satellite data through the use of legacy instruments and proxy data. Traditionally, SPoRT has supplied satellite imagery and products from NASA instruments such as the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). However, recently, SPoRT has been funded by the GOES-R and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Grounds to accelerate the transition of selected imagery and products to help improve forecaster awareness of upcoming operational data from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). This presentation provides background on the SPoRT Center, the SPoRT paradigm, and some example products that SPoRT is excited to work with forecasters to evaluate.

Description: An accurate representation of spatial and temporal variability of the Upper Troposphere Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) ozone is essential for understanding both the tropospheric ozone budget and ozone s contribution to radiative forcing. The complex, dynamically driven structure of trace gas fields in the UTLS presents a challenge to data-based and modelling studies. Small features are not fully resolved in data from limb-sounding instruments such as the Microwave Limb Sounder on EOS-Aura (the EOS-MLS), but are captured in assimilation of those data as vertical structure is added from the assimilated meteorology. This will be demonstrated using a multi-year assimilation of EOS-MLS observations in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. The results demonstrate the realism of the seasonal and year to year variability of laminar structures in the mid-latitudinal ozone field between years 2005-2007, for which independent validation data are available from the HIRDLS instrument. The analysis is done in the context of the underlying large scale dynamics. The lifetimes of most research instruments are too short for them to be used throughout the duration of long-term (at least 3 decades) reanalyses. For example, the EOS-MLS instrument has operated since mid-2004 until present. By contrast, Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) measurements provide continuous data since late 1978, but their vertical resolution is insufficient to represent the profile shape in the UTLS. Assimilation of these SBUV/2 observations in the GEOS-5 data assimilation system has hitherto not captured a realistic ozone structure in the UTLS, even though transport studies using GEOS-5 wind fields do show such structures. We show that careful construction of the background error covariance structure in GEOS-5 can lead to more realistic UTLS ozone fields when assimilating SBUV/2 observations. The reasoning behind this will be discussed, emphasizing the need to retain the sharp gradient of ozone concentrations across the tropopause. We analyze the UTLS ozone distributions in multi-year SBUV/2 assimilation experiments, comparing the results against the independent HIRDLSdataset and, for a longer period, with the MLS assimilation and discuss the consequences for tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing.

Description: We present data on galaxy kinematics, morphologies, and star-formation rates over 0.1 less than z less than 1.2 for approximately 500 blue galaxies. These data show how systems like our own Milky-Way have come into being. At redshifts around 1, about half the age of the Universe ago, Milky-Way mass galaxies were different beasts than today. They had a significant amount of disturbed motions, disturbed morphologies, shallower potential wells, higher specific star-formation rates, and likely higher gas fractions. Since redshift approximately 1, galaxies have decreased in disturbed motions, increased in rotation velocity and potential well depth, become more well-ordered morphologically, and decreased in specific star-formation rate. We find interrelationships between these measurements. Galaxy kinematics are correlated with morphology and specific star-formation rate such that galaxies with the fastest rotation velocities and the least amounts of disturbed motions have the most well-ordered morphologies and the lowest specific star-formation rates. The converse is true. Moreover, we find that the rate at which galaxies become more well-ordered kinematically (i.e., increased rotation velocity, decreased disturbed motions) and morphologically is directly proportional to their stellar mass.

Description: We present a new study of the X-ray spectral properties of the Crab Pulsar. The superb angular resolution of the Chandra X-ray Observatory enables distinguishing the pulsar from the surrounding nebulosity. Analysis of the spectrum as a function of pulse phase allows the least-biased measure of interstellar X-ray extinction due primarily to photoelectric absorption and secondarily to scattering by dust grains in the direction of the Crab Nebula. We modify previous findings that the line-of-sight to the Crab is under-abundant in oxygen and provide measurements with improved accuracy and less bias. Using the abundances and cross sections from Wilms, Allen & McCray (2000) we find [O/H] = (5.28+\-0.28) x 10(exp -4) (4.9 x 10(exp -4) is solar abundance). \rVe also measure for the first time the impact of scattering of flux out of the image by interstellar grains. \rYe find T(sub scat) = 0.147+/-0.043. Analysis of the spectrum as a function of pulse phase also measures the X-ray spectral index even at pulse minimum - albeit with increasing statistical uncertainty. The spectral variations are, by and large, consistent with a sinusoidal variation. The only significant variation from the sinusoid occurs over the same phase range as some rather abrupt behavior in the optical polarization magnitude and position angle. We compare these spectral variations to those observed in Gamma-rays and conclude that our measurements are both a challenge and a guide to future modeling and will thus eventually help us understand pair cascade processes in pulsar magnetospheres. The data were also used to set new. and less biased, upper limits to the surface temperature of the neutron star for different models of the neutron star atmosphere.

Description: We present the structure of the 3D ideal MHD pulsar magnetosphere to a radius ten times that of the light cylinder, a distance about an order of magnitude larger than any previous such numerical treatment. Its overall structure exhibits a stable, smooth, well-defined undulating current sheet which approaches the kinematic split monopole solution of Bogovalov 1999 only after a careful introduction of diffusivity even in the highest resolution simulations. It also exhibits an intriguing spiral region at the crossing of two zero charge surfaces on the current sheet, which shows a destabilizing behavior more prominent in higher resolution simulations. We discuss the possibility that this region is physically (and not numerically) unstable. Finally, we present the spiral pulsar antenna radiation pattern.

Description: During the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E), NASA's GPM GV Disdrometer and Radar Observations of Precipitation (DROP) Facility deployed an array of disdrometers and rain gauges in northern Oklahoma to sample, with high resolution, the drop size distribution for use in development of precipitation retrieval algorithms for the GPM core satellites. The DROP Facility instruments deployed during MC3E consisted of 16 autonomous Parsivel units, 5 two-dimensional video disdrometers (2dvds), a vertically pointing K band radar, and 32 tipping bucket rain gauges. There were several rainfall events during MC3E in which rain drops exceeding 6 mm in diameter were recorded. The disdrometer array revealed large rain drops with diameters exceeding 6 mm and 8 mm during two separate stratiform and convective rainfall events, respectively. The NPOL radar, which was scanning in high resolution RHI mode (every 40 sec) over the disdrometer array during the stratiform event, indicated a 1 km thick bright band with a differential reflectivity column of 2-3 dB extending below the melting layer to the surface where the large drops were recorded by the 2dvds. These large drops are important for GPM since they can have a great impact upon satellite precipitation retrieval, especially near the ground and below heavy convective rainfall cores where satellites have had problems depicting the rainfall.

Description: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Description: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through a case study example, synoptic-scale features evident in single-channel water vapor imagery are shown in the context of the air mass product. Other products, such as the "nighttime microphysics" RGB, are useful in the detection of low clouds and fog. Nighttime microphysics products from MODIS offer some advantages over single-channel or spectral difference techniques and will be discussed in the context of a case study. Finally, other RGB products from SEVIRI are being demonstrated as precursors to GOES-R within the GOES-R Proving Ground. Examples of "natural color" and "dust" imagery will be shown with relevant applications.

Description: The optical and microphysical structure of warm boundary layer marine clouds is of fundamental importance for understanding a variety of cloud radiation and precipitation processes. With the advent of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on the NASA EOS Terra and Aqua platforms, simultaneous global/daily 1km retrievals of cloud optical thickness and effective particle size are provided, as well as the derived water path. In addition, the cloud product (MOD06/MYD06 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively) provides separate effective radii results using the l.6, 2.1, and 3.7 ~m spectral channels. Cloud retrieval statistics are highly sensitive to how a pixel identified as being "notclear" by a cloud mask (e.g., the MOD35/MYD35 product) is determined to be useful for an optical retrieval based on a 1-D cloud model. The Collection 5 MODIS retrieval algorithm removed pixels associated with cloud'edges as well as ocean pixels with partly cloudy elements in the 250m MODIS cloud mask - part of the so-called Clear Sky Restoral (CSR) algorithm. Collection 6 attempts retrievals for those two pixel populations, but allows a user to isolate or filter out the populations via CSR pixel-level Quality Assessment (QA) assignments. In this paper, using the preliminary Collection 6 MOD06 product, we present global and regional statistical results of marine warm cloud retrieval sensitivities to the cloud edge and 250m partly cloudy pixel populations. As expected, retrievals for these pixels are generally consistent with a breakdown of the ID cloud model. While optical thickness for these suspect pixel populations may have some utility for radiative studies, the retrievals should be used with extreme caution for process and microphysical studies.

Description: The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

Description: Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Description: The Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX mission will be the first mission to catalogue the X-ray polarisation of many astrophysical objects including black-holes and pulsars. This first of its kind mission is enabled by the novel use of a time projection chamber as an X-ray polarimeter. The detector has been developed over the last 5 years, with the current effort charged toward a demonstration of it's technical readiness to be at level 6 prior to the preliminary design review. This talk will describe the design GEMS polarimeter and the results to date from the engineering test unit.

Description: We numerically study the mutual interaction between dark matter (DM) and Population III (Pop III) stellar systems in order to explore the possibility of Pop III dark stars within this physical scenario. We perform a cosmological simulation, initialized at z approx. 100, which follows the evolution of gas and DM. We analyze the formation of the first mini halo at z approx. 20 and the subsequent collapse of the gas to densities of 10(exp 12)/cu cm. We then use this simulation to initialize a set of smaller-scale 'cut-out' simulations in which we further refine the DM to have spatial resolution similar to that of the gas. We test multiple DM density profiles, and we employ the sink particle method to represent the accreting star-forming region. We find that, for a range of DM configurations, the motion of the Pop III star-disk system serves to separate the positions of the protostars with respect to the DM density peak, such that there is insufficient DM to influence the formation and evolution of the protostars for more than approx. 5000 years. In addition, the star-disk system causes gravitational scattering of the central DM to lower densities, further decreasing the influence of DM over time. Any DM-powered phase of Pop III stars will thus be very short-lived for the typical multiple system, and DM will not serve to significantly prolong the life of Pop III stars.

Description: Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts oflocalland-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. In addition, we examine the impact of improved specification ofland surface states, anomalies, and fluxes that are obtained through the use of a hew optimization and uncertainty module in LIS, on the L-A coupling in WRF forecasts. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Description: X-ray polarimetry promises to give qualitatively new information about high-energy astrophysical sources, such as binary black hole systems, micro-quasars, active galactic nuclei, and gamma-ray bursts. We designed, built and tested a hard X-ray polarimeter X-Calibur to be used in the focal plane of the InFOC(mu)S grazing incidence hard X-ray telescope. X-Calibur combines a low-Z Compton scatterer with a CZT detector assembly to measure the polarization of 10 - 80 keY X-rays making use of the fact that polarized photons Compton scatter preferentially perpendicular to the electric field orientation. X-Calibur achieves a high detection efficiency of order unity.

Description: The study of the formation and the destruction processes of cosmic dust is essential to understand and to quantify the budget of extraterrestrial organic materials. Although dust with all its components plays an important role in the evolution of interstellar physics and chemistry and in the formation of organic materials, little is known on the formation and destruction processes of carbonaceous dust. Laboratory experiments that are performed under conditions that simulate interstellar and circumstellar environments to provide information on the nature, the size and the structure of interstellar dust particles, the growth and the destruction processes of interstellar dust and the resulting budget of extraterrestrial organic molecules. A review of the properties of dust and of the laboratory experiments that are conducted to study the formation processes of dust grains from molecular precursors will be given.

Description: Using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5 with the cubed-sphere finite-volume dynamical core, the impact of spatial and temporal resolution on cloud properties will be evaluated. There are indications from examining convective cluster development in high resolution GEOS-5 forecasts that the temporal resolution within the model may playas significant a role as horizontal resolution. Comparing modeled convective cloud clusters versus satellite observations of brightness temperature, we have found that improved. temporal resolution in GEOS-S accounts for a significant portion of the improvements in the statistical distribution of convective cloud clusters. Using satellite simulators in GEOS-S we will compare the cloud optical properties of GEOS-S at various spatial and temporal resolutions with those observed from MODIS. The potential impact of these results on tropical cyclone formation and intensity will be examined as well.

Description: The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.

Description: For the preparation of ITRF2008, the IDS processed data from 1993 to 2008, including data from TOPEX/Poseidon, the SPOT satellites and Envisat in the weekly solutions. Since the development of ITRF2008, the IDS has been engaged in a number of efforts to try and improve the reference frame solutions. These efforts include (i) assessing the contribution of the new DORIS satellites, Jason-2 and Cryosat2 (2008-2011), (ii) individually analyzing the DORIS satellite contributions to geocenter and scale, and (iii) improving orbit dynamics (atmospheric loading effects, satellite surface force modeling. . . ). We report on the preliminary results from these research activities, review the status of the IDS combination which is now routinely generated from the contributions of the IDS analysis centers, and discuss the prospects for continued improvement in the DORIS contribution to the next international reference frame.

Description: Both NLDAS Phase 1 (1996-2007) and Phase 2 (1979-present) datasets have been evaluated against in situ observational datasets, and NLDAS forcings and outputs are used by a wide variety of users. Drought indices and drought monitoring from NLDAS were recently examined by Mo et al. (2010) and Sheffield et al. (2010). In this poster, we will present results analyzing NLDAS Phase 2 forcings and outputs for 3 North American Case studies being analyzed as part of the NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force: (1) Western US drought (1998- 2004); (2) plains/southeast US drought (2006-2007); and (3) Current Texas-Mexico drought (2011-). We will examine percentiles of soil moisture consistent with the NLDAS drought monitor.

Description: Precipitation, including rain and snow, is a critical part of the Earth's energy and hydrology cycles. Precipitation impacts latent heating profiles locally while global circulation patterns distribute precipitation and energy from the equator to the poles. For the hydrological cycle, falling snow is a primary contributor in northern latitudes during the winter seasons. Falling snow is the source of snow pack accumulations that provide fresh water resources for many communities in the world. Furthermore, falling snow impacts society by causing transportation disruptions during severe snow events. In order to collect information on the complete global precipitation cycle, both liquid and frozen precipitation must be collected. The challenges of estimating falling snow from space still exist though progress is being made. These challenges include weak falling snow signatures with respect to background (surface, water vapor) signatures for passive sensors over land surfaces, unknowns about the spherical and non-spherical shapes of the snowflakes, their particle size distributions (PSDs) and how the assumptions about the unknowns impact observed brightness temperatures or radar reflectivities, differences in near surface snowfall and total column snow amounts, and limited ground truth to validate against. While these challenges remain, knowledge of their impact on expected retrieval results is an important key for understanding falling snow retrieval estimations. Since falling snow from space is the next precipitation measurement challenge from space, information must be determined in order to guide retrieval algorithm development for these current and future missions. This information includes thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types. For example, can a lake effect snow system with low (approx 2.5 km) cloud tops having an ice water content (IWC) at the surface of 0.25 g / cubic m and dendrite snowflakes be detected? If this information is known, we can focus retrieval efforts on detectable storms and concentrate advances on achievable results. Here, the focus is to determine thresholds of detection for falling snow for various snow conditions over land and lake surfaces. The results rely on simulated Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations of falling snow cases since simulations provide all the information to determine the measurements from space and the ground truth. Sensitivity analyses were performed to better ascertain the relationships between multifrequency microwave and millimeter-wave sensor observations and the falling snow/underlying field of view. In addition, thresholds of detection for various sensor channel configurations, snow event system characteristics, snowflake particle assumptions, and surface types were studied. Results will be presented for active radar at Ku, Ka, and W-band and for passive radiometer channels from 10 to 183 GHz.

Description: In this talk, I will present recent results from a project led at NASA/GSFC, in collaboration with NASA/MSFC and JHU, focused on the development and application of an observation-driven integrated modeling system that represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satellite-resolved scales. The project, known as the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF), is funded by NASA's Modeling and Analysis Program, and leverages prior investments from the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). We define "satellite-resolved" scales as being within a typical mesoscale atmospheric modeling grid (roughly 1-25 km), although this work is designed to bridge the continuum between local (microscale), regional (mesoscale) and global (synoptic) processes. NU-WRF is a superset of the standard NCAR Advanced Research WRF model, achieved by fully integrating the GSFC Land Information System (LIS, already coupled to WRF), the WRF/Chem enabled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) model, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (SDSU), and boundary/initial condition preprocessors for MERRA and GEOS-5 into a single software release (with source code available by agreement with NASA/GSFC). I will show examples where the full coupling between aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes is critical for predicting local, regional, and global water and energy cycles, including some high-impact phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, droughts, and monsoons.

Description: The modelers point of view is that the aerosol problem is one of sources, evolution, and sinks. Relative to evolution and sink processes, enormous attention is given to the problem of aerosols sources, whether inventory based (e.g., fossil fuel emissions) or dynamic (e.g., dust, sea salt, biomass burning). On the other hand, aerosol losses in models are a major factor in controlling the aerosol distribution and lifetime. Here we shine some light on how aerosol sinks are treated in modern chemical transport models. We discuss the mechanisms of dry and wet loss processes and the parameterizations for those processes in a single model (GEOS-5). We survey the literature of other modeling studies. We additionally compare the budgets of aerosol losses in several of the ICAP models.

Description: Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Description: In the 1840's a southern star, Eta Argus, brightened to rival Sirius for nearly a decade, then faded. Today, we see the Homunculus, an hourglass figure with tutu, a dusty shell exceeding 12 solar masses expanding outward at 500 kmls. Many observers have systematically studied the massive binary total shrouded by interacting winds and its ejecta. More recently 3-D wind-wind collision models have begun to explain the extended structures resolved by Hubble Space Telescope. Now Herschel Space Observatory infrared scans are revealing wind interaction emissions and complex molecules left over from the dust that formed out of gas originally overabundant in nitrogen and greatly-depleted in oxygen and carbon. Many questions remain to be answered: What is the dust that formed in the 1840s event? What are the end states of the two massive companions...SN, GRB, Hypernova? and When?

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: Six years ago, the discovery of Rotating Radio Transients (RRATs) marked what appeared to be a new type of sparsely-emitting pulsar. Since 2006, more than 70 of these objects have been discovered in single-pulse searches of archival and new surveys. With a continual inflow of new information about the RRAT population in the form of new discoveries, multi-frequency follow ups, coherent timing solutions, and pulse rate statistics, a view is beginning to form of the place in the pulsar population RRATs hold. Here we review the properties of neutron stars discovered through single pulse searches. We first seek to clarify the definition of the term RRAT, emphasising that "the RRAT population" encompasses several phenomenologies. A large subset of RRATs appears to represent the tail of an extended distribution of pulsar nulling fractions and activity cycles; these objects present several key open questions remaining in this field.

Description: Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

Description: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregn, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Description: The GAMMA-400 gamma-ray telescope is designed to measure the fluxes of gamma-rays and cosmic-ray electrons (+) positrons, which can be produced by annihilation or decay of the dark matter particles, as well as to survey the celestial sphere in order to study point and extended sources of gamma-rays, measure energy spectra of Galactic and extragalactic diffuse gamma-ray emission, gamma-ray bursts, and gamma-ray emission from the Sun. GAMMA-400 covers the energy range from 100 MeV to 3000 GeV. Its angular resolution is approximately 0.01deg (E(sub gamma) greater than 100 GeV), the energy resolution approximately 1% (E(sub gamma) greater than 10 GeV), and the proton rejection factor approximately 10(exp 6). GAMMA-400 will be installed on the Russian space platform Navigator. The beginning of observations is planned for 2018.

Description: NASA Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Version 3.01 5-km nighttime 0.532 micron aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from 2007 are screened, averaged and evaluated at 1 deg X 1 deg resolution versus corresponding/co-incident 0.550 micron AOD derived using the US Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), featuring two-dimensional variational assimilation of quality-assured NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD. In the absence of sunlight, since passive radiometric AOD retrievals rely overwhelmingly on scattered radiances, the model represents one of the few practical global estimates available from which to attempt such a validation. Daytime comparisons, though, provide useful context. Regional-mean CALIOP vertical profiles of night/day 0.532 micron extinction coefficient are compared with 0.523/0.532 micron ground-based lidar measurements to investigate representativeness and diurnal variability. In this analysis, mean nighttime CALIOP AOD are mostly lower than daytime (0.121 vs. 0.126 for all aggregated data points, and 0.099 vs. 0.102 when averaged globally per normalised 1 deg. X 1 deg. bin), though the relationship is reversed over land and coastal regions when the data are averaged per normalised bin (0.134/0.108 vs. 0140/0.112, respectively). Offsets assessed within single bins alone approach +/- 20 %. CALIOP AOD, both day and night, are higher than NAAPS over land (0.137 vs. 0.124) and equal over water (0.082 vs. 0.083) when averaged globally per normalised bin. However, for all data points inclusive, NAAPS exceeds CALIOP over land, coast and ocean, both day and night. Again, differences assessed within single bins approach 50% in extreme cases. Correlation between CALIOP and NAAPS AOD is comparable during both day and night. Higher correlation is found nearest the equator, both as a function of sample size and relative signal magnitudes inherent at these latitudes. Root mean square deviation between CALIOP and NAAPS varies between 0.1 and 0.3 globally during both day/night. Averaging of CALIOP along-track AOD data points within a single NAAPS grid bin improves correlation and RMSD, though day/night and land/ocean biases persist and are believed systematic. Vertical profiles of extinction coefficient derived in the Caribbean compare well with ground-based lidar observations, though potentially anomalous selection of a priori lidar ratios for CALIOP retrievals is likely inducing some discrepancies. Mean effective aerosol layer top heights are stable between day and night, indicating consistent layer-identification diurnally, which is noteworthy considering the potential limiting effects of ambient solar noise during day.

Description: Meteorological measurements within urban areas are becoming increasingly important due to the accentuating effects of climate change upon the Urban Heat Island (UHI). However, ensuring that such measurements are representative of the local area is often difficult due to the diversity of the urban environment. The evaluation of sites is important for both new sites and for the relocation of established sites to ensure that long term changes in the meteorological and climatological conditions continue to be faithfully recorded. Site selection is traditionally carried out in the field using both local knowledge and visual inspection. This paper exploits and assesses the use of lidar-derived digital surface models (DSMs) to quantitatively aid the site selection process. This is acheived by combining the DSM with a solar model, first to generate spatial maps of sky view factors and sun-hour potential and second, to generate site-specific views of the horizon. The results show that such a technique is a useful first-step approach to identify key sites that may be further evaluated for the location of meteorological stations within urban areas.

Description: We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of 2.0Wm(exp2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (2.0Wm2), nitrate (0.2Wm(exp2), organic carbon (0.2Wm(exp2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Description: We present a multi-wavelength photometric study of approximately 15,000 resolved stars in the nearby spiral galaxy M83 (NGC 5236, D = 4.61 Mpc) based on Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 observations using four filters: F336W, F438W, F555W, and F814W. We select 50 regions (an average size of 260 pc by 280 pc) in the spiral arm and inter-arm areas of M83 and determine the age distribution of the luminous stellar populations in each region. This is accomplished by correcting for extinction toward each individual star by comparing its colors with predictions from stellar isochrones.We compare the resulting luminosity-weighted mean ages of the luminous stars in the 50 regions with those determined from several independent methods, including the number ratio of red-to-blue supergiants, morphological appearance of the regions, surface brightness fluctuations, and the ages of clusters in the regions. We find reasonably good agreement between these methods. We also find that young stars are much more likely to be found in concentrated aggregates along spiral arms, while older stars are more dispersed. These results are consistent with the scenario that star formation is associated with the spiral arms, and stars form primarily in star clusters and then disperse on short timescales to form the field population. The locations ofWolf-Rayet stars are found to correlate with the positions of many of the youngest regions, providing additional support for our ability to accurately estimate ages. We address the effects of spatial resolution on the measured colors, magnitudes, and age estimates. While individual stars can occasionally show measurable differences in the colors and magnitudes, the age estimates for entire regions are only slightly affected.

Description: This study examines the potential negative influences of dry midlevel air on the development of tropical cyclones (specifically, its role in enhancing cold downdraft activity and suppressing storm development). The Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to construct two sets of idealized simulations of hurricane development in environments with different configurations of dry air. The first set of simulations begins with dry air located north of the vortex center by distances ranging from 0 to 270 km, whereas the second set of simulations begins with dry air completely surrounding the vortex, but with moist envelopes in the vortex core ranging in size from 0 to 150 km in radius. No impact of the dry air is seen for dry layers located more than 270 km north of the initial vortex center (approximately 3 times the initial radius of maximum wind). When the dry air is initially closer to the vortex center, it suppresses convective development where it entrains into the storm circulation, leading to increasingly asymmetric convection and slower storm development. The presence of dry air throughout the domain, including the vortex center, substantially slows storm development. However, the presence of a moist envelope around the vortex center eliminates the deleterious impact on storm intensity. Instead, storm size is significantly reduced. The simulations suggest that dry air slows intensification only when it is located very close to the vortex core at early times. When it does slow storm development, it does so primarily by inducing outward- moving convective asymmetries that temporarily shift latent heating radially outward away from the high-vorticity inner core.

Description: The light emitted by stars and accreting compact objects through the history of the universe is encoded in the intensity of the extragalactic background light (EBL). Knowledge of the EBL isimportant to understand the nature of star formation and galaxy evolution, but direct measurements of the EBL are limited by galactic and other foreground emissions. Here, we report an absorption feature seen in the combined spectra of a sample of gamma-ray blazars out to a redshift of z approx. 1.6. This feature is caused by attenuation of gamma rays by the EBL at optical to ultraviolet frequencies and allowed us to measure the EBL flux density in this frequency band.

Description: The Cygnus region is a very bright and complex portion of the TeV sky, host to unidentified sources and a diffuse excess with respect to conventional cosmic-ray propagation models. Two of the brightest TeV sources, MGRO J2019+37 and MGRO J2031+41, are analyzed using Milagro data with a new technique, and their emission is tested under two different spectral assumptions: a power law and a power law with an exponential cutoff. The new analysis technique is based on an energy estimator that uses the fraction of photomultiplier tubes in the observatory that detect the extensive air shower. The photon spectrum is measured in the range 1-100 TeV using the last three years of Milagro data (2005-2008), with the detector in its final configuration. An F-test indicates that MGRO J2019+37 is better fit by a power law with an exponential cutoff than by a simple power law. The best-fitting parameters for the power law with exponential cutoff model are a normalization at 10 TeV of 7(sup +5 sub 2) 10(exp 10)/ s /sq m/ TeV, a spectral index of 2.0(sup +0.5 sub -10), and a cutoff energy of 29(sup +50 sub 16) TeV. MGRO J2031+41 shows no evidence of a cutoff. The best-fitting parameters for a power law are a normalization of 2.1(sup +0.6 sub 0.6) 10(exp 10)/ s/sq m/ TeV and a spectral index of 3.22(sup +0.23 sub 0.18. The overall flux is subject to a approx.. 30% systematic uncertainty. The systematic uncertainty on the power-law indices is approx. 0.1. Both uncertainties have been verified with cosmic-ray data. A comparison with previous results from TeV J2032+4130, MGRO J2031+41, and MGRO J2019+37 is also presented.

Description: In this review we confront the current theoretical understanding of particle acceleration at relativistic outflows with recent observational results on various source classes thought to involve such outflows, e.g. gamma-ray bursts, active galactic nuclei, and pulsar wind nebulae. We highlight the possible contributions of these sources to ultra-high-energy cosmic rays.

Description: The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) First Source Catalog (1FGL) provided spatial, spectral, and temporal properties for a large number of gamma -ray sources using a uniform analysis method. After correlating with the mostcomplete catalogs of source types known to emit gamma rays, 630 of these sources are "unassociated" (i.e., have no obvious counterparts at other wavelengths). Here, we employ two statistical analyses of the primary gamma-ray characteristics for these unassociated sources in an effort to correlate their gamma-ray properties with the active galactic nucleus (AGN) and pulsar populations in 1FGL. Based on the correlation results, we classify 221 AGN-like and 134 pulsar-like sources in the 1FGL unassociated sources. The results of these source "classifications" appear to match the expected source distributions, especially at high Galactic latitudes. While useful for planning future multiwavelength follow-up observations, these analyses use limited inputs, and their predictions should not be considered equivalent to "probable source classes" for these sources. We discuss multiwavelength results and catalog cross-correlations to date, and provide new source associations for 229 Fermi-LAT sources that had no association listed in the 1FGL catalog. By validating the source classifications against these new associations, we find that the new association matches the predicted source class in approximately 80% of the sources.

Description: We explore high-redshift gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) as promising tools to probe pre-galactic metal enrichment. We utilize the bright afterglow of a Population III (Pop III) GRB exploding in a primordial dwarf galaxy as a luminous background source, and calculate the strength of metal absorption lines that are imprinted by the first heavy elements in the intergalactic medium (IGM). To derive the GRB absorption line diagnostics, we use an existing highly resolved simulation of the formation of a first galaxy which is characterized by the onset of atomic hydrogen cooling in a halo with virial temperature approximately greater than10(exp 4) K.We explore the unusual circumburst environment inside the systems that hosted Pop III stars, modeling the density evolution with the self-similar solution for a champagne flow. For minihalos close to the cooling threshold, the circumburst density is roughly proportional to (1 + z) with values of about a few cm(exp 3). In more massive halos, corresponding to the first galaxies, the density may be larger, n approximately greater than100 cm(exp 3). The resulting afterglow fluxes are weakly dependent on redshift at a fixed observed time, and may be detectable with the James Webb Space Telescope and Very Large Array in the near-IR and radio wavebands, respectively, out to redshift z approximately greater than 20. We predict that the maximum of the afterglow emission shifts from near-IR to millimeter bands with peak fluxes from mJy to Jy at different observed times. The metal absorption line signature is expected to be detectable in the near future. GRBs are ideal tools for probing the metal enrichment in the early IGM, due to their high luminosities and featureless power-law spectra. The metals in the first galaxies produced by the first supernova (SN) explosions are likely to reside in low-ionization stages (C II, O I, Si II and Fe II). We show that, if the afterglow can be observed sufficiently early, analysis of the metal lines may distinguish whether the first heavy elements were produced in a pair-instability supernova or a core-collapse (Type II) SN, thus constraining the initial mass function of the first stars.

Description: The relative abundances of ices in astrophysical environments rely on accurate laboratory measurements of physical parameters, such as band strengths (or absorption intensities), determined for the molecules of interest in relevant mixtures. In an extension of our previous study on pure-ice samples, here we focus on the near-infrared absorption features of molecules in mixtures with the dominant components of interstellar and planetary ices, H2O and N2. We present experimentally measured near-infrared spectral information (peak positions, widths, and band strengths) for both H2O- and N2-dominated mixtures of CO (carbon monoxide), CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane), and NH3 (ammonia). Band strengths were determined during sample deposition by correlating the growth of near-infrared features (10,000-4000 per centimeter, 1-2.5 micrometers) with better-known mid-infrared features (4000-400 per centimeter, 2.5-25 micrometers) at longer wavelengths.

Description: Using a mid-infrared calibration of the Cepheid distance scale based on recent observations at 3.6 micrometers with the Spitzer Space Telescope, we have obtained a new, high-accuracy calibration of the Hubble constant. We have established the mid-IR zero point of the Leavitt law (the Cepheid period-luminosity relation) using time-averaged 3.6 micrometers data for 10 high-metallicity, MilkyWay Cepheids having independently measured trigonometric parallaxes. We have adopted the slope of the PL relation using time-averaged 3.6micrometers data for 80 long-period Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) Cepheids falling in the period range 0.8 〈 log(P) 〈 1.8.We find a new reddening-corrected distance to the LMC of 18.477 +/- 0.033 (systematic) mag. We re-examine the systematic uncertainties in H(sub 0), also taking into account new data over the past decade. In combination with the new Spitzer calibration, the systematic uncertainty in H(sub 0) over that obtained by the Hubble Space Telescope Key Project has decreased by over a factor of three. Applying the Spitzer calibration to the Key Project sample, we find a value of H(sub 0) = 74.3 with a systematic uncertainty of +/-2.1 (systematic) kilometers per second Mpc(sup 1), corresponding to a 2.8% systematic uncertainty in the Hubble constant. This result, in combination with WMAP7measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and assuming a flat universe, yields a value of the equation of state for dark energy, w(sub 0) = 1.09 +/- 0.10. Alternatively, relaxing the constraints on flatness and the numbers of relativistic species, and combining our results with those of WMAP7, Type Ia supernovae and baryon acoustic oscillations yield w(sub 0) = 1.08 +/- 0.10 and a value of N(sub eff) = 4.13 +/- 0.67, mildly consistent with the existence of a fourth neutrino species.

Description: Using data obtained by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on board Hinode, we have performed a survey of obvious and persistent (without significant damping) Doppler shift oscillations in the corona. We have found mainly two types of oscillations from February to April in 2007. One type is found at loop footpoint regions, with a dominant period around 10 minutes. They are characterized by coherent behavior of all line parameters (line intensity, Doppler shift, line width, and profile asymmetry), and apparent blueshift and blueward asymmetry throughout almost the entire duration. Such oscillations are likely to be signatures of quasi-periodic upflows (small-scale jets, or coronal counterpart of type-II spicules), which may play an important role in the supply of mass and energy to the hot corona. The other type of oscillation is usually associated with the upper part of loops. They are most clearly seen in the Doppler shift of coronal lines with formation temperatures between one and two million degrees. The global wavelets of these oscillations usually peak sharply around a period in the range of three to six minutes. No obvious profile asymmetry is found and the variation of the line width is typically very small. The intensity variation is often less than 2%. These oscillations are more likely to be signatures of kink/Alfven waves rather than flows. In a few cases, there seems to be a /2 phase shift between the intensity and Doppler shift oscillations, which may suggest the presence of slow-mode standing waves according to wave theories. However, we demonstrate that such a phase shift could also be produced by loops moving into and out of a spatial pixel as a result of Alfvenic oscillations. In this scenario, the intensity oscillations associated with Alfvenic waves are caused by loop displacement rather than density change. These coronal waves may be used to investigate properties of the coronal plasma and magnetic field.

Description: NASA Langley Research Center obtained a composite helicopter cabin structure in 2010 from the US Army's Survivable Affordable Repairable Airframe Program (SARAP) that was fabricated by Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation. The cabin had been subjected to a vertical drop test in 2008 to evaluate a tilting roof concept to limit the intrusion of overhead masses into the fuselage cabin. Damage to the cabin test article was limited primarily to the roof. Consequently, the roof area was removed and the remaining structure was cut into test specimens including a large subfloor section and a forward framed fuselage section. In 2011, NASA and Sikorsky entered into a cooperative research agreement to study the impact responses of composite airframe structures and to evaluate the capabilities of the explicit transient dynamic finite element code, LS-DYNA, to simulate these responses including damage initiation and progressive failure. Most of the test articles were manufactured of graphite unidirectional tape composite with a thermoplastic resin system. However, the framed fuselage section was constructed primarily of a plain weave graphite fabric material with a thermoset resin system. Test data were collected from accelerometers and full-field photogrammetry. The focus of this paper will be to document impact testing and simulation results for the longitudinal impact of the subfloor section and the vertical drop test of the forward framed fuselage section.

Description: Reconstructing the Gamma-Ray Photon Optical Depth of the Universe To Z Approx. 4fFrom Multiwavelength Galaxy Survey Data We reconstruct the gamma-ray opacity of the universe out to z approx. 〈 34 using an extensive library of 342 observed galaxy luminosity function (LF) surveys extending to high redshifts .We cover the whole range from UV to mid-IR (0.1525 micron ) providing for the first time a robust empirical calculation of the gamma gamma optical depth out to several TeV. Here, we use the same database as Helgason et al. where the extragalactic background light was reconstructed from LFs out to 4.5 micron and was shown to recover observed galaxy counts to high accuracy. We extend our earlier library Of LFs to 25micron such that it covers the energy range of pair production with gamma -rays (1) in the entire Fermi/LAT energy range, and (2) at higher TeV energies probed by ground-based Cherenkov telescopes. In the absence of significant contributions to the cosmic diffuse background from unknown populations, such as the putative Population III era sources, the universe appears to be largely transparent to gamma-rays at all Fermi/LAT energies out to z approx.. 2 whereas it becomes opaque to TeV photons already at z approx. 〈 0.2 and reaching tau approx 10 at z = 1. Comparing with the currently available Fermi/LAT gamma-ray burst and blazar data shows that there is room for significant emissions originating in the first stars era.

Description: A unique microphysical structure of rainfall is observed by the surface laser optical Particle Size and Velocity (Parsivel) disdrometers on 25 April 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). According to the systematic differences in rainfall rate and bulk effective droplet radius, the sampling data can be divided into two groups; the rainfall mostly from the deep convective clouds has relatively high rainfall rate and large bulk effective droplet radius, whereas the reverse is true for the rainfall from the shallow wrm clouds. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) successfully reproduces the two distinct modes in the observed rainfall microphysical structure. The results show that the up-to-date model can demonstrate how the cloud physics and the weather condition on the day are involved in forming the unique rainfall characteristic.

Description: Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

Description: An algorithm for linear estimation of aerosol bulk properties such as particle volume, effective radius and complex refractive index from multiwavelength lidar measurements is presented. The approach uses the fact that the total aerosol concentration can well be approximated as a linear combination of aerosol characteristics measured by multiwavelength lidar. Therefore, the aerosol concentration can be estimated from lidar measurements without the need to derive the size distribution, which entails more sophisticated procedures. The definition of the coefficients required for the linear estimates is based on an expansion of the particle size distribution in terms of the measurement kernels. Once the coefficients are established, the approach permits fast retrieval of aerosol bulk properties when compared with the full regularization technique. In addition, the straightforward estimation of bulk properties stabilizes the inversion making it more resistant to noise in the optical data. Numerical tests demonstrate that for data sets containing three aerosol backscattering and two extinction coefficients (so called 3 + 2 ) the uncertainties in the retrieval of particle volume and surface area are below 45% when input data random uncertainties are below 20 %. Moreover, using linear estimates allows reliable retrievals even when the number of input data is reduced. To evaluate the approach, the results obtained using this technique are compared with those based on the previously developed full inversion scheme that relies on the regularization procedure. Both techniques were applied to the data measured by multiwavelength lidar at NASA/GSFC. The results obtained with both methods using the same observations are in good agreement. At the same time, the high speed of the retrieval using linear estimates makes the method preferable for generating aerosol information from extended lidar observations. To demonstrate the efficiency of the method, an extended time series of observations acquired in Turkey in May 2010 was processed using the linear estimates technique permitting, for what we believe to be the first time, temporal-height distributions of particle parameters.

Description: We discuss the bending of light in a recent model for gravity at large distances containing a Rindler type acceleration proposed by Grumiller. We consider the static, spherically symmetric metric with cosmological constant and Rindler-like term 2ar presented in this model, and we use the procedure by Rindler and Ishak. to obtain the bending angle of light in this metric. Earlier work on light bending in this model by Carloni, Grumiller, and Preis, using the method normally employed for asymptotically flat space-times, led to a conflicting result (caused by the Rindler-like term in the metric) of a bending angle that increases with the distance of closest approach r(sub 0) of the light ray from the centrally concentrated spherically symmetric matter distribution. However, when using the alternative approach for light bending in nonasymptotically flat space-times, we show that the linear Rindler-like term produces a small correction to the general relativistic result that is inversely proportional to r(sub 0). This will in turn affect the bounds on Rindler acceleration obtained earlier from light bending and casts doubts on the nature of the linear term 2ar in the metric

Description: Theoretical studies in gravitational wave astronomy have mostly focused on the information that can be extracted from individual detections, such as the mass of a binary system and its location in space. Here we consider how the information from multiple detections can be used to constrain astrophysical population models. This seemingly simple problem is made challenging by the high dimensionality and high degree of correlation in the parameter spaces that describe the signals, and by the complexity of the astrophysical models, which can also depend on a large number of parameters, some of which might not be directly constrained by the observations. We present a method for constraining population models using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach which simultaneously infers the source parameters and population model and provides the joint probability distributions for both. We illustrate this approach by considering the constraints that can be placed on population models for galactic white dwarf binaries using a future space-based gravitational wave detector. We find that a mission that is able to resolve approximately 5000 of the shortest period binaries will be able to constrain the population model parameters, including the chirp mass distribution and a characteristic galaxy disk radius to within a few percent. This compares favorably to existing bounds, where electromagnetic observations of stars in the galaxy constrain disk radii to within 20%.

Description: We report on the identification of a new soft gamma-ray source, IGR J12319-0749, detected with the IBIS imager on board the INTEGRAL satellite. The source, which has an observed 20100 keV flux of approx 8.3 10(exp -12) erg/sq. cm/ s, is spatially coincident with an active galactic nucleus (AGN) at redshift z = 3.12. The broad-band continuum, obtained by combining XRT and IBIS data, is flat (Gamma = 1.3) with evidence for a spectral break around 25 keV (100 keV in the source restframe). X-ray observations indicate flux variability, which is also supported by a comparison with a previous ROSAT measurement. IGR J12319-0749 is also a radio-emitting object likely characterised by a flat spectrum and high radio loudness; optically it is a broad-line emitting object with a massive black hole (2.8 10(exp 9) solar masses) at its centre. The source spectral energy distribution is similar to another high-redshift blazar, 225155+2217 at z = 3.668: both objects are bright, with a high accretion disk luminosity and a Compton peak located in the hard X-ray/soft gamma-ray band. IGR J12319-0749 is likely the second-most distant blazar detected so far by INTEGRAL.

Description: We have explored the interplay of star formation and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity in soft X-rays (0.5-2 keV) in two samples of Seyfert 2 galaxies (Sy2s). Using a combination of low-resolution CCD spectra from Chandra and XMM-Newton, we modeled the soft emission of 34 Sy2s using power-law and thermal models. For the 11 sources with high signal-to-noise Chandra imaging of the diffuse host galaxy emission, we estimate the luminosity due to star formation by removing the AGN, fitting the residual emission. The AGN and star formation contributions to the soft X-ray luminosity (i.e., L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF)) for the remaining 24 Sy2s were estimated from the power-law and thermal luminosities derived from spectral fitting. These luminosities were scaled based on a template derived from XSINGS analysis of normal star-forming galaxies. To account for errors in the luminosities derived from spectral fitting and the spread in the scaling factor, we estimated L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF))from Monte Carlo simulations. These simulated luminosities agree with L(sub x,AGN) and L(sub x,SF) derived from Chandra imaging analysis within a 3sigma confidence level. Using the infrared [Ne ii]12.8 micron and [O iv]26 micron lines as a proxy of star formation and AGN activity, respectively, we independently disentangle the contributions of these two processes to the total soft X-ray emission. This decomposition generally agrees with L(sub x,SF) and L(sub x,AGN) at the 3 sigma level. In the absence of resolvable nuclear emission, our decomposition method provides a reasonable estimate of emission due to star formation in galaxies hosting type 2 AGNs.

Description: GRB 120422A is a low-luminosity gamma-ray burst (GRB) associated with a bright supernova, which distinguishesitself by its relatively short T(sub 90) (approximately 5 s) and an energetic and steep-decaying X-ray tail. We analyze the Swift BurstAlert Telescope and X-ray Telescope data and discuss the physical implications. We show that the steep declineearly in the X-ray light curve can be interpreted as the curvature tail of a late emission episode around 58-86 s,with a curved instantaneous spectrum at the end of the emission episode. Together with the main activity in thefirst 20 s and the weak emission from 40 s to 60 s, the prompt emission is variable, which points to a centralengine origin in contrast to a shock-breakout origin, which is used to interpret some other nearby low-luminosity supernova GRBs. Both the curvature effect model and interpreting the early shallow decay as the coasting externalforward shock emission in a wind medium provide a constraint on the bulk Lorentz factor to be around several.Comparing the properties ofGRB 120422A and other supernova GRBs,we find that themain criterion to distinguish engine-driven GRBs from shock-breakout GRBs is the time-averaged -ray luminosity. Engine-driven GRBs likelyhave a luminosity above approximately 10(sup 48) erg s(sup -1).

Description: In ways similar to experiments in nuclear and particle physics, high-energy astrophysics usesgamma rays and energetic charged particles toprobe processes that involve large energy transfers.Since its launch in 2008, the international Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope has been exploringnatural particle accelerators and the interactionsof high-energy particles in the universe. Withsources ranging from thunderstorms on Earth to galaxies and exploding stars in distant parts of the cosmos, the telescopes subjects of study are almostas diverse as were those of the scientist whose name it bears.

Description: We report on the detection of high-energy -ray emission from the Moon during the first 24 months of observations by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). This emission comes from particle cascades produced by cosmicray (CR) nuclei and electrons interacting with the lunar surface. The differential spectrum of the Moon is soft and can be described as a log-parabolic function with an effective cutoff at 2-3 GeV, while the average integral flux measured with the LAT from the beginning of observations in 2008 August to the end of 2010 August is F(greater than100 MeV) = (1.04 plus or minus 0.01 [statistical error] plus or minus 0.1 [systematic error]) 10(sup 6) cm(sup 2) s(sup 1). This flux is about a factor 2-3 higher than that observed between 1991 and 1994 by the EGRET experiment on board the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, F(greater than100 MeV)510(sup 7) cm(sup 2) s(sup 1), when solar activity was relatively high. The higher gamma -ray flux measured by Fermi is consistent with the deep solar minimum conditions during the first 24 months of the mission, which reduced effects of heliospheric modulation, and thus increased the heliospheric flux of Galactic CRs. A detailed comparison of the light curve with McMurdo Neutron Monitor rates suggests a correlation of the trends. The Moon and the Sun are so far the only known bright emitters of gamma-rays with fast celestial motion. Their paths across the sky are projected onto the Galactic center and high Galactic latitudes as well as onto other areas crowded with high-energy gamma-ray sources. Analysis of the lunar and solar emission may thus be important for studies of weak and transient sources near the ecliptic.

Description: Observations of radio halos and relics in galaxy clusters indicate efficient electron acceleration. Protons should likewise be accelerated and, on account of weak energy losses, can accumulate, suggesting that clusters may also be sources of very high energy (VHE; E greater than100 GeV) gamma-ray emission. We report here on VHE gamma-ray observations of the Coma galaxy cluster with the VERITAS array of imaging Cerenkov telescopes, with complementing Fermi Large Area Telescope observations at GeV energies. No significant gamma-ray emission from the Coma Cluster was detected. Integral flux upper limits at the 99 confidence level were measured to be on the order of (2-5) x 10(sup -8) photons m(sup -2) s(sup -1) (VERITAS,greater than 220 GeV) and approximately 2 x 10(sup -6) photons m(sup -2) s(sup -1) (Fermi, 1-3 GeV), respectively. We use the gamma-ray upper limits to constrain cosmic rays (CRs) and magnetic fields in Coma. Using an analytical approach, the CR-to-thermal pressure ratio is constrained to be less than 16% from VERITAS data and less than 1.7% from Fermi data (averaged within the virial radius). These upper limits are starting to constrain the CR physics in self-consistent cosmological cluster simulations and cap the maximum CR acceleration efficiency at structure formation shocks to be 50. Alternatively, this may argue for non-negligible CR transport processes such as CR streaming and diffusion into the outer cluster regions. Assuming that the radio-emitting electrons of the Coma halo result from hadronic CR interactions, the observations imply a lower limit on the central magnetic field in Coma of approximately (2-5.5)microG, depending on the radial magnetic field profile and on the gamma-ray spectral index. Since these values are below those inferred by Faraday rotation measurements in Coma (for most of the parameter space), this renders the hadronic model a very plausible explanation of the Coma radio halo. Finally, since galaxy clusters are dark matter (DM) dominated, the VERITAS upper limits have been used to place constraints on the thermally averaged product of the total self-annihilation cross section and the relative velocity of the DM particles, (sigma upsilon)

Description: Due to an error at the publisher, the times given for the major tick marks in the X-axis in Figure 1 of the published article are incorrect. The correctly labeled times should be 00:52:00, 00:54:00,..., and 01:04:00. The correct version of Figure 1 and its caption is shown below. IOP Publishing sincerely regrets this error.25.

Description: We present a regional and seasonal climatology of SHADOZ ozone profiles in the troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) based on measurements taken during the first five years of Aura, 2005-2009, when new stations joined the network at Hanoi, Vietnam; Hilo, Hawaii; Alajuela Heredia, Costa Rica; Cotonou, Benin. In all, 15 stations operated during that period. A west-to-east progression of decreasing convective influence and increasing pollution leads to distinct tropospheric ozone profiles in three regions: (1) western Pacific eastern Indian Ocean; (2) equatorial Americas (San Cristobal, Alajuela, Paramaribo); (3) Atlantic and Africa. Comparisons in total ozone column from soundings, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, on Aura, 2004-) satellite and ground-based instrumentation are presented. Most stations show better agreement with OMI than they did for EPTOMS comparisons (1998-2004; Earth-ProbeTotal Ozone Mapping Spectrometer), partly due to a revised above-burst ozone climatology. Possible station biases in the stratospheric segment of the ozone measurement noted in the first 7 years of SHADOZ ozone profiles are re-examined. High stratospheric bias observed during the TOMS period appears to persist at one station. Comparisons of SHADOZ tropospheric ozone and the daily Trajectory-enhanced Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TTOR) product (based on OMIMLS) show that the satellite-derived column amount averages 25 low. Correlations between TTOR and the SHADOZ sondes are quite good (typical r2 0.5-0.8), however, which may account for why some published residual-based OMI products capture tropospheric interannual variability fairly realistically. On the other hand, no clear explanations emerge for why TTOR-sonde discrepancies vary over a wide range at most SHADOZ sites.

Description: This work presents the first analysis of longterm correlative day-to-night columnar aerosol optical properties. The aim is to better understand columnar aerosol dynamic from ground-based observations, which are poorly studied until now. To this end we have used a combination of sun-and-star photometry measurements acquired in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) from 2007 to 2010. For the whole study period, mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) around 440 nm (+/-standard deviation) is 0.18 +/- 0.10 and 0.19 +/- 0.11 for daytime and nighttime, respectively, while the mean Angstrom exponent (alpha ) is 1.0 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 for daytime and nighttime. The ANOVA statistical tests reveal that there are no significant differences between AOD and obtained at daytime and those at nighttime. Additionally, the mean daytime values of AOD and obtained during this study period are coherent with the values obtained in the surrounding AERONET stations. On the other hand, AOD around 440 nm present evident seasonal patterns characterised by large values in summer (mean value of 0.20 +/- 0.10 both at daytime and nighttime) and low values in winter (mean value of 0.15 +/- 0.09 at daytime and 0.17 +/- 0.10 at nighttime). The Angstrom exponents also present seasonal patterns, but with low values in summer (mean values of 0.8 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 at dayand night-time) and relatively large values in winter (mean values of 1.2 +/- 0.4 and 1.0 +/- 0.3 at daytime and nighttime). These seasonal patterns are explained by the differences in the meteorological conditions and by the differences in the strength of the aerosol sources. To take more insight about the changes in aerosol particles between day and night, the spectral differences of the Angstrom exponent as function of the Angstrom exponent are also studied. These analyses reveal increases of the fine mode radius and of the fine mode contribution to AOD during nighttime, being more remarkable in the summer seasons. These variations are explained by the changes of the local aerosol sources and by the meteorological conditions between daytime and nighttime, as well as aerosol aging processes. Case studies during summer and winter for different aerosol loads and types are also presented to clearly illustrate these findings.

Description: A simplied framework is presented for assessing the qualitative sensitivities of computed microwave properties, satellite brightness temperatures, and radar reflectivities to assumptions concerning the physical properties of ice-phase hydrometeors. Properties considered included the shape parameter of a gamma size distribution andthe melted-equivalent mass median diameter D0, the particle density, dielectric mixing formula, and the choice of complex index of refraction for ice. We examine these properties at selected radiometer frequencies of 18.7, 36.5, 89.0, and 150.0 GHz; and radar frequencies at 2.8, 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0 GHz consistent with existing and planned remote sensing instruments. Passive and active microwave observables of ice particles arefound to be extremely sensitive to the melted-equivalent mass median diameter D0 ofthe size distribution. Similar large sensitivities are found for variations in the ice vol-ume fraction whenever the geometric mass median diameter exceeds approximately 1/8th of the wavelength. At 94 GHz the two-way path integrated attenuation is potentially large for dense compact particles. The distribution parameter mu has a relatively weak effect on any observable: less than 1-2 K in brightness temperature and up to 2.7 dB difference in the effective radar reflectivity. Reversal of the roles of ice and air in the MaxwellGarnett dielectric mixing formula leads to a signicant change in both microwave brightness temperature (10 K) and radar reflectivity (2 dB). The choice of Warren (1984) or Warren and Brandt (2008) for the complex index of refraction of ice can produce a 3%-4% change in the brightness temperature depression.

Description: We measure the cross-correlation of Atacama cosmology telescope cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing convergence maps with quasar maps made from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR8 SDSS-XDQSO photometric catalog. The CMB lensing quasar cross-power spectrum is detected for the first time at a significance of 3.8 sigma, which directly confirms that the quasar distribution traces the mass distribution at high redshifts z 〉 1. Our detection passes a number of null tests and systematic checks. Using this cross-power spectrum, we measure the amplitude of the linear quasar bias assuming a template for its redshift dependence, and find the amplitude to be consistent with an earlier measurement from clustering; at redshift z ap 1.4, the peak of the distribution of quasars in our maps, our measurement corresponds to a bias of b = 2.5 +/- 0.6. With the signal-to-noise ratio on CMB lensing measurements likely to improve by an order of magnitude over the next few years, our results demonstrate the potential of CMB lensing crosscorrelations to probe astrophysics at high redshifts.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Success in three aspects of OCO2 mission is threatened by unaccounted spa,al variability effects, all involving atmospheric scattering: 1. Low/moderately opaque clouds can escape the prescreening by mimicking a brighter surface. 2. Prescreening does not account for longrange radia,ve impact (adjacency effect) of nearby clouds. Need for extended cloud masking? 3. Oblique looks in target mode are highly exposed to surface adjacency and aerosol variability effects.We'll be covering all three bases!

Description: Water vapor in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) has a local radiative cooling effect. As a source for ice in cirrus clouds, however, it can also indirectly produce infrared heating. Using NASA A-Train satellite measurements of CALIPSO and Aura/MLS we calculated the correlation of water vapor, ice water content and temperature in the TTL. We find that temperature strongly controls water vapor (correlation r =0.94) and cirrus clouds at 100 hPa (r = 0.91). Moreover we observe that the cirrus seasonal cycle is highly (r =0.9) anticorrelated with the water vapor variation in the TTL, showing higher cloud occurrence during December-January-February. We further investigate the anticorrelation on a regional scale and find that the strong anticorrelation occurs generally in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone). The seasonal cycle of the cirrus ice water content is also highly anticorrelated to water vapor (r = 0.91) and our results support the hypothesis that the total water at 100 hPa is roughly constant. Temperature acts as a main regulator for balancing the partition between water vapor and cirrus clouds. Thus, to a large extent, the depleting water vapor in the TTL during DJF is a manifestation of cirrus formation.

Description: This study investigates the structure of the African easterly jet, focusing on instability processes on a seasonal and subseasonal scale, with the goal of identifying features that could provide increased predictability of Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is used as the main investigating tool. MERRA is compared with other reanalyses datasets from major operational centers around the world and was found to describe very effectively the circulation over the African monsoon region. In particular, a comparison with precipitation datasets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project shows that MERRA realistically reproduces seasonal precipitation over that region. The verification of the generalized Kuo barotropic instability condition computed from seasonal means is found to have the interesting property of defining well the location where observed tropical storms are detected. This property does not appear to be an artifact of MERRA and is present also in the other adopted reanalysis datasets. Therefore, the fact that the areas where the mean flow is unstable seems to provide a more favorable environment for wave intensification, could be another factor to include-in addition to sea surface temperature, vertical shear, precipitation, the role of Saharan air, and others-among large-scale forcings affecting development and tropical cyclone frequency. In addition, two prominent modes of variability are found based on a spectral analysis that uses the Hilbert-Huang transform: a 2.5-6-day mode that corresponds well to the African easterly waves and also a 6-9-day mode that seems to be associated with tropical- extratropical interaction.

Description: Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Description: Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900-2008 are used to examine how the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean March through April) ENSO and PDO signals are apparent in first leaf dates, the signals are not statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level (p 〈0.05)) for most sites. The most significant ENSO/PDO signal in first leaf dates occurs for El Nino and positive PDO conditions. An analysis of the spatial distributions of first leaf dates for separate and combined ENSO/PDO conditions features a northwest-southeast dipole that is significantly (at p 〈0.05) different than the distributions for neutral conditions. The nature of the teleconnection between Pacific SST's and first leaf dates is evident in comparable composites for detrended sea level pressure (SLP) in the spring months. During positive ENSO/PDO, there is an anomalous flow of warm air from the southwestern US into the northwestern US and an anomalous northeasterly flow of cold air from polar regions into the eastern and southeastern US. These flow patterns are reversed during negative ENSO/PDO. Although the magnitudes of first leaf date departures are not necessarily significantly related to ENSO and PDO, the spatial patterns of departures are significantly related to ENSO and PDO. These significant relations and the long-lived persistence of SSTs provide a potential tool for forecasting the tendencies for first leaf dates to be early or late.

Description: Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

Description: Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Description: Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W1 m2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.