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  • Articles  (8)
  • Vesuvius  (8)
  • Elsevier  (8)
  • PANGAEA
  • 2005-2009  (8)
  • 1995-1999
  • 1975-1979
  • 2008  (8)
Collection
  • Articles  (8)
Source
Keywords
Publisher
Years
  • 2005-2009  (8)
  • 1995-1999
  • 1975-1979
Year
  • 1
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    Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Herewerefer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H2O and CO2) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H2O and no CO2, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H2O and 2 wt.% CO2 and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.
    Description: Published
    Description: 359-365
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; Numerical simulations ; Vent conditions ; Volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Sources of ground movement at Vesuvius before the AD 79 eruption: Evidence from contemporary accounts and archaeological studies (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Historical sources have recorded earthquake shocks, their effects and difficulties that local inhabitants experienced before the AD 79 Pompeii eruption. Archaeological studies pointed out the effects of such seismicity, and have also evidenced that several water crises were occurring at Pompeii in that period. Indeed numerous sources show that, at the time of eruption, and probably some time before, the civic aqueduct, having ceased to be supplied by the regional one, was out of order and that a new one was being built. Since Roman aqueducts were usually built with a recommended minimum mean slope of 20 cm/km and Pompeii's aqueduct sloped from the nearby Apennines toward the town, this slope could have been easily cancelled by uplift that occurred in the area even if this was only moderate. For the crustal deformations a volcanic origin is proposed and a point source model is used to explain the observations. Simple analysis of the available data suggests that the ground deformations were caused by a b2 km3 volumetric change at a depth of ∼8 km that happened over the course of several decades.
    Description: Published
    Description: 959–970
    Description: 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; ground deformation ; seismicity ; stress changes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Vesuvius: A historical approach to the 1631 eruption "cold data" from the analysis of three contemporary treatises (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 1631 Vesuvius eruption is one of its best known and most studied of its type. However, the historical approach performed within the framework of the Exploris project highlighted new evidence from previously unused or unknown historical sources. These consist of three treatises that were contemporary to the event; although written in Latin, they have been fully translated and analysed. To guarantee systematic use and open access to the large amount of information they contain, they have been provided as a small database. These treatises have provided new information on phenomena that preceded and accompanied the eruption of 1631, making possible the formation of a complex chronological profile, starting from around 6 months before the eruption. The anthropic impact is also outlined. The method applied has produced a chronology of “cold data”, which are not interpreted from the volcanological standpoint, but only derived directly from the analysed history and sequence of the texts. The analysis of the three treatises has not, however, solved all of the problems connected with the detailed knowledge of the event in 1631. Indeed, problems of two kinds persist: a) linguistic correspondence between the volcanological terms of today and those used in the texts; b) the lack of precision of the measures indicated. Here, the main results obtained from this analysis method are presented, along with a discussion of their limitations and some new perspectives.
    Description: Published
    Description: 347-358
    Description: 3.10. Sismologia storica e archeosismologia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: historical volcanology ; Vesuvius ; 1631 eruption chronology ; precursors ; treatises ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 366–377
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic ash fallout ; volcanic hazard ; computer model ; Vesuvius ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: More than 600000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano,Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards.Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparisonwith volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption ofVesuvius, theremay not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 229-243
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: risk perception ; disasters ; evacuation plan ; Vesuvius ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A volcanic risk perception study of the population residing near Vesuvius was carried out between May and July, 2006. A total of 3600 questionnaires with 45 items were distributed to students, their parents and the general population. The largest number of surveys (2812) were distributed in the 18 towns of the Red Zone, the area nearest to the volcano that is exposed to pyroclastic flow hazards and whose 550,000 residents, according to the civil protection emergency plan (in operation since 1995), should be evacuated in case of an eruption crisis. The remaining 788 questionnaires were distributed in 3 additional towns and 3 neighborhoods of Naples, all within the Yellow Zone, which is an area exposed to pyroclastic fallout hazards. A total of 2655 surveys were returned, resulting in a response rate of 73.7%. Results indicated that people have a realistic view of the risk: they think that an eruption is likely, that it will have serious consequences for their towns and for themselves and their families and they are quite worried about the threat. However, several other social, economic, and security-related issues were listed as a problem more often than Vesuvius. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of knowledge about the emergency plan, a lack of confidence in the plan's success and in public officials and low feelings of self-efficacy. People want to be more deeply involved in public discussions with scientists and civil protection officials on emergency planning and individual preparedness measures. It is clear from the results that a major education-information effort is still needed to improve the public's knowledge, confidence and self-efficacy, thereby improving their collective and individual capability to positively face a future volcanic emergency.
    Description: Published
    Description: 244–258
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic risk perception ; Vesuvius ; confidence on emergency plan and public officials ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available
    Description: Published
    Description: 397-415
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; volcanic hazard ; volcanic risk ; probabilistic risk assessment ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Transient 3D numerical simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic density current scenarios at Vesuvius (2008)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-20
    Description: Numerical simulations of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) scenarios at Vesuvius were carried out using a transient 3D flow model based on multiphase transport laws. The model describes the complex dynamics of the collapse as well as the effects of the 3D topography of the volcano on PDC propagation. Source conditions refer to a medium-scale sub-Plinian event and consider a pressure-balanced jet. Simulation results provide new insights into the complex dynamics of these phenomena. In particular: 1) column collapse can be characterized by different regimes, from incipient collapse to partial or nearly total collapse, thus confirming the possibility of a transitional field of behaviour of the column characterized by the contemporaneous and/or intermittent occurrence of ash fallout and PDCs; 2) the collapse regime can be characterized by its fraction of eruptive mass reaching the ground and generating PDCs; 3) within the range of the investigated source conditions, the propagation and hazard potential of PDCs appear to be directly correlated with the flow-rate of the mass collapsing to the ground, rather than to the collapse height of the column (this finding is in contrast with predictions based on the energy-line concept, which simply correlates the PDC runout and kinetic energy with the collapse height of the column); 4) first-order values of hazard variables associated with PDCs (i.e., dynamic pressure, temperature, airborne ash concentration) can be derived from simulation results, thereby providing initial estimates for the quantification of damage scenarios; 5) for scenarios assuming a location of the central vent coinciding with that of the present Gran Cono, Mount Somma significantly influences the propagation of PDCs, largely reducing their propagation in the northern sector, and diverting mass toward the west and southeast, accentuating runouts and hazard variables for these sectors; 6) the 2D modelling approximation can force an artificial radial propagation of the PDCs since it ignores azimuthal flows produced by real topographies that therefore need to be simulated in fully 3D conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 378-396
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; pyroclastic density current ; column collapse ; numerical simulation ; 3D modelling ; hazard assessment ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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