ALBERT

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand local perceptions on climate change and its impacts on biodiversity, rangeland, agriculture and human health. Design/methodology/approach A household survey with 300 interviewees and focus group discussions with key stakeholders were conducted and validated at two steps, using the climate data from the nearest weather stations and reviewing literatures, to correlate the local perceptions on climate change and its impacts. Findings Majority of the respondents reported an increase in temperature and change in the precipitation pattern with increased hazardous incidences such as floods, avalanches and landslides. Climate change directly impacted plant distribution, species composition, disease and pest infestation, forage availability, agricultural productivity and human health risks related to infectious vector-borne diseases. Research limitations/implications Because of the remoteness and difficult terrain, there are insufficient local weather stations in the mountains providing inadequate scientific data, thus requiring extrapolation from nearest stations for long-term climate data monitoring. Practical implications The research findings recommend taking immediate actions to develop local climate change adaptation strategies through a participatory approach that would enable local communities to strengthen their adaptive capacity and resilience. Social implications Local knowledge-based perceptions on climate change and its impacts on social, ecological and economic sectors could help scientists, practitioners and policymakers to understand the ground reality and respond accordingly through effective planning and implementing adaptive measures including policy formulation. Originality/value This research focuses on combining local knowledge-based perceptions and climate science to elaborate the impacts of climate change in a localised context in Rakaposhi Valley in Karakoram Mountains of Pakistan.

Description: PurposeThis paper aims to examine the policy environments, institutional arrangements and practical implementation of some initiatives undertaken by the Government of Cameroon, together with some relevant stakeholders, in addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation at various levels in the country, which are prerequisites to promote synergistic ways of addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation.Design/methodology/approachUsing a qualitative approach to data collection, the paper draws upon information collected from relevant literature and interviews with 18 key country resource personnel.FindingsResults revealed that most reviewed policies/programs/strategies do not mention “climate change” explicitly but propose some activities which indirectly address it. Interaction is fair within the government ministries but weak between these ministries and other institutions. Inadequate financial resources are being opined as the most important challenge stakeholders are (and would continue) facing as a result of adopting integrated approaches to climate change. Other challenges include inadequate coordination, insufficient sensitization and capacity building, ineffective implementation, inadequate compliance, lack of proper transparency and inadequate public participation. To redress the aforementioned constraints and challenges, the paper concludes by outlining a number of recommendations for policy design.Originality/valueThe following recommendations were made: create a national technical committee to oversee and provide scientific guidance to the government on synergistic approaches; promote private sector investment and sponsorship on synergistic approaches; create local awareness, etc. It is important to underscore that minimal studies have been conducted to analyze multi-stakeholder perspectives on synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation in Cameroon. This study attempts to bridge this major gap.

Description: Purpose This study aims to exploit the abundance of solar energy resources for socioeconomic development in the semi -arid Northeastern Brazil as a potent adaptation tool to global climate change. It points out a set of conjuncture factors that allow us to foresee a new paradigm of sustainable development for the region by transforming the sun’s radiant energy into electricity through distributed photovoltaic generation. The new paradigm, as presented in this essay, has the transformative potential to free the region from past regional development dogma, which was dependent on the scarce water resource, and the marginal and predatory use of its Caatinga Biome. Design/methodology/approach The research uses a pre ante design, following the procedures of scenario building, as an adaptation mechanism to climate change in the sector of energy generation and socioeconomic inclusion. Findings The scenarios of socioeconomic resilience to climate change based on the abundance of solar radiation, rather than the scarcity of water, demonstrates its potential as a global adaptation paradigm to climate change. Research limitations/implications The developments proposed are dependent on federal legislation changes, allowing the small producer to be remunerated by the energy produced. Practical implications The proposed smart grid photovoltaic generation program increases the country's resiliency to the effect of droughts and climate change. Social implications As proposed, the program allows for the reversion of a pattern of long term poverty in semi-arid Northeast Brazil. Originality/value The exploitation of the characteristics of abundance of the semiarid climate, i.e. its very condition of semi-aridity with abundant solar radiation, is itself an advantage factor toward adaption to unforeseen drought events. Extensive previous research has focused on weighting and monitoring drought i.e. the paradigm of scarcity. The interplay between exploiting Northeast Brazil’s abundant factors and climate change adaptation, especially at the small farmer levels constitutes a discovery never before contemplated.

Description: Purpose Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran. Design/methodology/approach A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data. Findings HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall, precipitation in 2030 is estimated to be 265, 257 and 247 mm, respectively. For the studied aquifer, predicted recharge will decrease compared to recharge calculated based on the average of long-term rainfall. Originality/value The decline of groundwater level in the study area was 11.45 m during the past 24 years or 0.48 m/year. Annual groundwater depletion should increase to 0.75 m in the coming 16 years via climate change. Climate change adaptation policies in the basin should include changing the crop type, as well as water productivity and irrigation efficiency enhancement at the farm and regional scales.

Description: PurposeThe development of models that allows the evaluation and prediction of erosion processes is an important tool for the management and planning of coastal systems. Mangrove forests systems are under threat by the impacts of erosion, which is also intensified by human activity (and aggravated in the scenarios of global warming and climate change). The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of geographic information systems (GIS) that can be used for any estuary area, but it can also be used for mangroves.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses georeferentiation which is defined as a set of parameters that best characterize the mangrove areas: elevation (m); geomorphology; geology; land cover; anthropogenic activities; distance to the coastline (m) and maximum tidal range (m). Three different methods are used to combine the various vulnerability parameters, namely, DRASTIC index, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and square root of the geometric mean.FindingsThe three approaches presented in this work show different types evaluating vulnerability to erosion, highlighting a stronger overvaluation of the areas presented with a high vulnerability, through the use of DRASTIC index when compared with two other approaches. The use of the AHP shows similarity to the square root of the geometric mean model, but the AHP also presents a higher percentage of vulnerable areas classified as having medium to very high vulnerability. On the other hand, the use of square root of the geometric mean led to a higher percentage of areas classified as having low and very low vulnerability.Research limitations/implicationsThese three qualitative models, based on a cognitive approach, using the set of parameters defined in this research, are a good tool for the spatial distribution of erosion in different mangroves in the world.Originality/valueGlobal warming and climate change scenarios require adaptation and mitigation options supported by science-based strategies and solutions.

Description: PurposeThis paper aims to investigate farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in the northern region of Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study assessed the vulnerability of male-headed and female-headed farming households to climate change and variability by using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and tested for significant difference in their vulnerability levels by applying independent two-sample-student’st-test based on gender by using a sample of 210 smallholder farming households.FindingsThe results revealed a significant difference in the vulnerability levels of female-headed and male-headed farming households. Female–headed households were more vulnerable to livelihood strategies, socio-demographic profile, social networks, water and food major components of the LVI, whereas male-headed households were more vulnerable to health. The vulnerability indices revealed that female–headed households were more sensitive to the impact of climate change and variability. However, female-headed households have the least adaptive capacities. In all, female-headed farming households are more vulnerable to climate change and variability than male-headed farming households.Research limitations/implicationsThe study recommends that female-headed households should be given priority in both on-going and new intervention projects in climate change and agriculture by empowering them through financial resource support to venture into other income-generating activities. This would enable them to diversify their sources of livelihoods to boost their resilience to climate change and variability.Originality/valueThis is the first study that examined the gender dimension of vulnerability of smallholder farmers in Ghana by using the livelihood vulnerability framework. Female subordination in northern region of Ghana has been profound to warrant a study on gender dimension in relation to climate change and variability, especially as it is a semi-arid region with unpredictable climatic conditions. This research revealed the comparative vulnerability of male- and female-headed households to climate change and variability.

Description: Purpose Perceptions of climate change and its threats to rural communities are among major challenges faced by scientists around the world. A few studies prove that these communities are aware of change in climatic conditions and their impacts on people’s livelihoods. Climate change is usually perceived as increasing warming days, erratic rainfall patterns, ecological variability, biological change and their adverse effects on human beings. This study aims to assess Ga-Dikgale community’s perceptions on climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative research method was adopted and community members of age 60 and above in GaDikgale community were purposively selected as participants in the study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, and thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. Findings The study found that the community perceives climate change and climate variability based on changes in temperature patterns, erratic rainfall patterns, seasonal change, depletion of biodiversity, decline in subsistence crop production, change in water quality and cessation of cultural activities. Originality/value The study concludes that community’s perceptions of climate change are largely centred on variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. It has been established that knowledge of climate change in rural communities is of paramount importance in as far as adaptation to climate hazards is concerned.

Description: Purpose Climate change has aroused widespread concern around the world, which is one of the most complex challenges encountered by human beings. The underlying cause of climate change is the increase of carbon emissions. To reduce carbon emissions, the analysis of the factors affecting this type of emission is of practical significance. Design/methodology/approach This paper identified five factors affecting carbon emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model (e.g. per capita carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure and per capita GDP). Besides, based on the projection pursuit method, this paper obtained the optimal projection directions of five influencing factors in 30 provinces (except for Tibet). Based on the data from 2000 to 2014, the authors predicted the optimal projection directions in the next six years under the Markov transfer matrix. Findings The results indicated that per capita GDP was the critical factor for reducing carbon emissions. The industrial structure and population intensified carbon emissions. The energy structure had seldom impacted on carbon emissions. The energy intensity obviously inhibited carbon emissions. The best optimal projection direction of each index in the next six years remained stable. Finally, this paper proposed the policy implications. Originality/value This paper provides an insight into the current state and the future changes in carbon emissions.

Description: Purpose A significant number of studies have been conducted to analyze and understand the relationship between gas emissions and global temperature using conventional statistical approaches. However, these techniques follow assumptions of probabilistic modeling, where results can be associated with large errors. Furthermore, such traditional techniques cannot be applied to imprecise data. The purpose of this paper is to avoid strict assumptions when studying the complex relationships between variables by using the three innovative, up-to-date, statistical modeling tools: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs) and fuzzy time series models. Design/methodology/approach These three approaches enabled us to effectively represent the relationship between global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector (oil, gas and coal) and the average global temperature increase. Temperature was used in this study (1900-2012). Investigations were conducted into the predictive power and performance of different fuzzy techniques against conventional methods and among the fuzzy techniques themselves. Findings A performance comparison of the ANFIS model against conventional techniques showed that the root means square error (RMSE) of ANFIS and conventional techniques were found to be 0.1157 and 0.1915, respectively. On the other hand, the correlation coefficients of ANN and the conventional technique were computed to be 0.93 and 0.69, respectively. Furthermore, the fuzzy-based time series analysis of CO2 emissions and average global temperature using three fuzzy time series modeling techniques (Singh, Abbasov–Mamedova and NFTS) showed that the RMSE of fuzzy and conventional time series models were 110.51 and 1237.10, respectively. Social implications The paper provides more awareness about fuzzy techniques application in CO2 emissions studies. Originality/value These techniques can be extended to other models to assess the impact of CO2 emission from other sectors.

Description: Purpose Legislation plays an essential role in addressing climate change in China. However, many barriers to formulating national legislation to address climate change have so far prevented its enactment. The bottom-up approach adopted in the international climate regime sets a good example. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to discuss the regional legislation to address climate change in China through exploring the following two questions: whether it is necessary to enact climate change legislation at regional level first and whether it is feasible to develop such regional legislation in the absence of national climate change law. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses the necessity and feasibility of regional legislation to address climate change. Section 2 introduces the current legislative framework on climate change in China. Section 3 investigates whether it is better to push the legislative agenda at regional, rather than national level. Section 4 analyses the feasibility of establishing regional legislative systems. Section 5 explores the key issues in formulating and promoting regional legislation. Findings This paper concludes that it is necessary and feasible to pilot regional legislation before enacting national legislation. Under these circumstances, local governments can take the initiative to begin formulating regional legislation. Originality/value Addressing climate change needs immediate action and effective measures. It is, thus, necessary to reconsider the approach that China should adopt when developing legislation on climate change. This paper contributes to broadening current knowledge of regional climate change legislation in China.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate whether corporate governance characteristics impact the voluntary disclosure of carbon emissions. Design/methodology/approach This empirical research was carried out in two stages. Initially, the carbon disclosures data were sourced from the annual and stand-alone sustainability reports of Turkish non-financial companies listed on Borsa Istanbul during 2011-2015. Later, the corporate governance characteristics that influence carbon disclosures were examined using panel data regression models. Findings The empirical findings of this study suggested that entities with a higher number of independent directors on their boards were more likely to respond to the Carbon Disclosure Project. In addition, board nationality diversity and the existence of a sustainability committee had a significant positive impact on the propensity to disclose carbon emissions and the extent of those disclosures. Originality/value This research provides empirical evidence of the determinants of carbon emission disclosures, which could be useful for organizations and regulatory bodies. Such an understanding is crucial to specify necessary policies that will provide emission reduction practices and policies for entities. This paper fills some of the gap in the literature by concentrating on the association between corporate governance characteristics and disclosures of a more specific environmental issue, being carbon emissions.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the potential of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) to mainstream consideration of climate change adaptation (CCA) in Bangladesh, particularly for the coastal zone, to improve disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in this region. Continuing climate risks require adaptation at all levels of society. The densely populated and resource-rich coastal zone of Bangladesh is at risk to the impacts of climate change. Design/methodology/approach This research is based on secondary sources (gray and published literature) of information on climate change impacts on the coastal zone of Bangladesh. The sources include research reports, online publications, governmental reports, scientific journals, international reports, books, journal articles and other academic resources on SEA, climate change adaptation and mitigation, and DRR. In addition to examining SEA in Bangladesh, this paper investigates SEA cases in different countries to obtain insights from the successful application of SEA for CCA. Findings The paper draws on several cases from different countries demonstrating that SEA has a significant potential to coordinate CCA objectives. The findings reveal that the appropriate use of SEA can enable DRR through CCA. Originality/value This study argues that SEA has a potential role in supporting CCA.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify factors resulting from climate change that could impact the cost-effectiveness and development of viticulture in Poland. Climate change is a crucial challenge for the global wine industry. It has the potential to shift the centre of gravity of viticulture from well-developed regions to new ones, including Poland. Design/methodology/approach Two main methods of data collection were applied: computer assisted telephone interviewing and computer assisted personal interview. A structured questionnaire was drafted, piloted and sent to farms randomly selected to represent wine producers from different wine regions of Poland. The linear probability model was used to determine the factors influencing cost-effectiveness in viticulture production. Data were calculated by using SAS software. Findings Current and future climate change factors could influence the cost-effectiveness and growth of viticulture in Poland. The exploitation of these opportunities will require the development and implementation of new policies and practices at the farm level, which could also promote innovation in the sector. Furthermore, wine growers according to the increased risk of the unfavourable abiotic and biotic production conditions would be forced to undertake the adaptation strategies to limit the risk of lowering the cost-effectiveness. Originality/value This study identifies viticulture and winemaking opportunities for new regions such as Poland. The challenges involved in managing this transition are discussed.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to assess the rate and land category contributing to the changes in seven land-uses in the Kintampo North Municipality of Ghana and the effect of the decisions of land users on future landscapes. Design/methodology/approach LANDSAT images were classified to generate land use/cover maps to detect changes that had occurred between 1986 and 2014. In total, 120 farmers were also interviewed to determine their perceptions on land use changes. Interval, category and transition levels of changes were determined. Savanna woodland, settlement and forest were mostly converted to farmland in both intervals (1986-2001 and 2001-2014). Findings Results showed that rock outcrop, plantation, cropland and savanna woodland increased at an annual rate of 13.86, 1.57, 0.82 and 0.33 per cent, respectively, whilst forest, settlement and water body decreased at 4.90, 1.84 and 1.17 per cent annual rate of change, respectively. Approximately, 74 per cent of farmers will not change land use in the future, while 84.2 per cent plan to increase farm sizes. Research limitations/implications The study shows that more land cover will be targeted for conversion as farmers expand their farmlands. There is the need for strict implementation of appropriate land use/cover policies to sustain food production in the region in this era of changing climate and population increase. Originality/value This research assessed the land use changes in the Kintampo North Municipality and its impacts on agriculture and carbon stocks release via land use changes. It identified how the decisions of the local farmers on land management will affect future landscape.

Description: Purpose New agricultural technologies are continuously generated and promoted for adoption by farmers with the expectation that they bring about higher benefits than older technologies. Yet, depending on the perceived benefits, the user of the technology may choose to stop using it. This paper aims to analyze what drives farmers to dis-adopt climate smart sorghum varieties in Tanzania. Design/methodology/approach The study uses cross-sectional farm household level data collected in Tanzania from a sample of 767 households. The determinants of dis-adoption are explored using a bivariate probit with sample selection model. Findings The authors find that while farmers switch between different sorghum varieties, most farmers actually quit sorghum production. Older farmers and those facing biotic stresses such attacks by birds are more likely to dis-adopt sorghum. Practical implications These findings suggest that there is scope for improving and sustaining the adoption of sorghum varieties in Tanzania once extension services are strengthened. The findings also point to a well-founded theory on the role of markets in enhancing the overall sustainability of food systems. Social implications The study findings have broader implications for understanding the sustainability of improved technology adoption Originality/value Dis-adoption is also positively associated with the lack of access to markets underscoring the role of markets in enhancing the overall sustainability of technology adoption and food systems.

Description: Purpose The geographical range of agricultural crops is shifting because of climate change. Reducing the potential negative impact of this shift requires efficient crop switching at farm level. Yet there are scant studies that examine how crop switching is currently taking place and what factors facilitate the process. Even these few existing studies often based their analysis on inadequately established causal link between climate change and switching decisions. This study aims to identify the specific switching decisions that are primarily motivated by climate change, and their determinants. Design/methodology/approach The study used a household survey on 190 households in Semien Shewa Zone in Ethiopia. Subjective rating of farmers was used to identify the relative importance of climate change in motivating the different types of switching decisions. A logit model is used to identify determinants of crop switching decisions primarily motivated by climate change. Findings Farmers in the study area are currently abandoning certain crops as a response to climate change. The adoption of new crops is, however, mainly attributed to price changes. Most farmers who abandoned at least one crop adopted mung bean mainly due to its price advantages. As expected, crop switching as an adaptation strategy is more prevalent particularly in drier and hotter agroecologies. The logit model showed that crop switching is strongly correlated with land size and agroecology. Originality/value This paper provides an in-depth examination of crop switching as an adaptation strategy to climate change. Crop switching is an adaptation strategy that is expected to substantially reduce the damage from climate change in agriculture. The findings are particularly relevant for adaptation planning in the context of smallholder agriculture.

Description: Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of global carbon budget (GCB) as a key concept that should be introduced as a reference when countries formulate their mitigation contributions in the context of the Paris Agreement and in all the monitoring, reporting and verification processes that must be implemented according to the decisions of the Paris Summit. Design/methodology/approach A method based on carbon budget accounting is used to analyze the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by the 15 countries that currently head the ranking of global emissions. Moreover, these INDCs are analyzed and compared with each other. Sometimes, inadequate methodologies and a diverse level of ambition in the formulated targets are observed. Findings It is found that the INDCs of those 15 countries alone imply the release into the atmosphere of 84 per cent of the GCB for the period 2011-2030, and 40 per cent of the GCB available until the end of the century. Originality/value This is the first time the INDCs of the top 15 emitters are analyzed. It is also the first analysis made using the GCB approach. This paper suggests methodological changes in the way that the future NDCs might be formulated.

Description: Purpose This study aims to explore South Korean firms’ reactions to climate change issues and the Korean emissions trading scheme (ETS) from the perspective of proactive climate-entrepreneurship. Differences in attitude toward the Korean ETS, implementation of carbon management practices and performance regarding operations, market and emission reductions are also investigated. Design/methodology/approach A research model was developed to investigate the differences in corporate perception of climate change. Using a cluster analysis and analysis of variance with 94 South Korean companies subject to the Korean ETS, the study identified carbon strategies and examined differences in characteristics among the strategies. This study undertook a robustness test by comparing the results from a large sample (n = 261) with those of the original sample (n = 94). Findings The study identifies four different carbon strategies based on climate-entrepreneurial proactivity: the “explorer,” “hesitator,” “attempter” and “laggard.” The “explorer” cluster is likely to have a proactive stance toward the Korean ETS regulation, while the “laggard” cluster shows resistance to this new climate policy. Entrepreneurial proactivity in carbon strategies is related to the actual adoption, implementation and effectiveness of carbon management practices. Originality/value This research is one of the few studies to explore differences in corporate response to climate change from the perspective of entrepreneurship. The study provides a theoretical foundation for extending the literature on the strategic management of climate change issues.

Description: Purpose Developed countries agreed at COP15 to pay US$100bn annually for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. This paper aims to evaluate how prepared are donors and recipients to spend this money well by analyzing institutional and organizational capabilities for climate change adaptation in least developed country (LDC) administrations using the case of Nepal, a country which can be considered to be an archetypal LDC. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted over 100 in-depth structured qualitative interviews with government officials from across the organizational chain in the ministries concerned with climate change, ranging from the lowest-ranked employee to just under the ministerial ranks. This was supplemented with detailed surveys of three representative communities from different ecological zones in Nepal. Data were analyzed using Ostrom’s IAD framework. Findings Local administrations are more motivated and capable than are given credit for by donors but nevertheless face critical barriers in being able to function autonomously and confront climate change challenges. These barriers create three interrelated challenges: An organizational challenge to create intrinsic incentives which empower and grant autonomy to front line agents, an institutional challenge to go beyond accountability-focused process validation and a policy-choice challenge which avoids the temptation to write aspirational policies without clear and feasible strategies to obtain the resources necessary for their implementation. Practical implications The findings point to ways climate assistance can be restructured for more reach and effectiveness. Originality/value This paper fills a gap in the literature because community structures and institutions have been extensively analyzed in the context of adaptation, but despite being criticized, administrative structures have rarely been directly studied.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to investigate the effect of using indigenous forecasts (IFs) and scientific forecasts (SFs) on pastoralists’ adaptation methods in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected using a household survey from 270 pastoralists and focus group discussions. The multivariate probit model was used in the analysis. Findings The results revealed that pastoralists using of IF only more likely to be non-farm enterprises and livestock sales as adaptation strategies. Pastoralists using both SF and IF were more likely to practise livestock migration. Research limitations/implications Other factors found to be important included land ownership, land tenure, gender, education level, non-farm and productive assets, climate-related risks and agricultural extension access. Practical implications Increasing the number of weather stations in pastoral areas would increase the predictive accuracy of scientific climate information, which results in better adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Active participation of pastoral households in national meteorological dissemination processes should be explored. Social implications A two-prong approach that supports both mobile and sedentary pastoralism should be adopted in rangeland development policies. Originality/value This study has shown the relevance of IFs in climate change adaptation methods of pastoralists. It has also shown that IFs compliment SFs in climate change adaptation in pastoralism.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to review the current status of wheat production, farming systems, production constraints and wheat demand-supply chain analysis; the role of international and national breeding programs and their approaches in wheat genetic improvement including targeting mega environments, shuttle breeding, doubled haploids, marker-assisted selection and key location phenotyping; and future prospects and opportunities of wheat production in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Design/methodology/approach Relevant literature works have been used and cited accordingly. Findings Though traditionally wheat was not the leading staple crop in SSA, it is becoming an important food crop because of rapid population growth associated with increased urbanization and change in food preference for easy and fast food such as bread, biscuits, pasta, noodles and porridge. In 2013, total wheat consumption in SSA reached 25 million tons with import accounting for 17.5 million tons at a price of USD6 billion, while during the same period the region produces only 7.3 million tons on a total area of 2.9 million hectares. The low productivity (2t/ha) in the region is principally because of abiotic (drought and heat) and biotic (yellow rust, stem rust, septoria and fusarium) stresses which are increasing in intensity and frequency associated with climate change. Furthermore, increased cost of production, growing populations, increased rural-urban migration, low public and private investments, weak extension systems and policies, and low adoption rates of new technologies remain to be major challenges for wheat production in SSA. Wheat breeding in SSA is dominantly carried out by National Agricultural Research Systems, in partnership with the international research centers [International center for improvement of maize and wheat (CIMMYT) and International center for agricultural research in the dry areas (ICARDA)], to develop high yielding and widely adapted wheat genotypes with increased water-use efficiency, heat tolerance and resistance to major diseases and pests. Most of the cultivars grown in SSA are originated from the international research centers, CIMMYT and ICARDA. Practical implications This paper will help to promote available wheat technologies in SSA by creating awareness to wheat scientists, extension agents and policymakers. Originality/value This manuscript is an original review paper which has not been published in this form elsewhere.

Description: Purpose Mombasa City in Kenya is one of the most vulnerable towns to flood risk due to its low-lying coastal location. Those at the highest risk in the city are households living in the flood-prone informal settlements. However, little is known about the perception of these vulnerable households to the flood risks and its health impacts, which is important for developing effective long-term adaptation strategies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the general perception of the residents regarding flood risks, its impact on their health and their adaptation strategies. Design/methodology/approach This study surveyed 390 randomly selected households in three informal settlements in the city of Mombasa using a semi-structured questionnaire. This was supplemented with six focus group discussions (FDGs) and six key informant interviews (KIIs). Findings The majority of respondent households perceive future flooding as high risk or severe with high negative health impact. Despite this, many do not evacuate their homes because they do not have alternative places to move to. Flooding was indicated to have had a negative physical and mental health impact on members of households. Although majority of households had taken some adaptation measures, most of these were short term, mainly due to financial constraints, lack of knowledge and government support. Perception of flood risk and gender were found to have a strong influence on taking long-term adaptation measures at the household level. Practical implications Reducing flood risk and averting its health consequences in flood-prone informal settlements require empowering and supporting those living in these areas with ability to initiate long-term adaptation measures and creating awareness about future risks. Originality/value This study provides evidence about how residents of flood-prone informal settlements perceive flood risk and how the exposures to perennial flooding impact their health. The paper augments existing knowledge of flood risk in poor urban neighborhoods of developing countries.

Description: Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between foreign finance, economic growth and CO2 to investigate if the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) exists as an empirical evidence in 32 selected Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Design/methodology/approach This study used quantitative analysis to test two main hypotheses: H1 is the U-shape relationship between foreign finance and environment, and H2 is the N-shaped association between economic growth and environment. In doing so, this study used panel data techniques. The panel set contained 32 countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, with 27 observations for each country. This study applied a panel OLS estimator via fixed-effects control to address heterogeneity and mitigate endogeneity. Generalized method of moments (GMM) with fixed effects-instrumental variables (FE-IV) and diagnostic tests were also used. Findings The results showed that foreign finance and environmental quality have an inverted U-shaped association. The three proxies’ foreign investment, foreign assets and remittance in the first stages contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, but after the threshold point is reached, these proxies become “environmentally friendly” by their contribution to reducing CO2 emissions. Also, a non-linear relationship denotes that foreign investment in OECD countries enhances the importance, as a proxy of foreign finance has greater environmental quality than foreign assets. Additionally, empirical results show that remittances received is linked to the highest polluted levels until a threshold point is reached, at which point it then helps reduce CO2 emissions. The GMM and FE-IV results provide robust evidence on inverse U-shaped relationship, while the N-shaped relationship explains that economic growth produces more CO2 emissions at the first phase of growth, but the quadratic term confirms this effect is negative after a specific level of GDP is reached. Then, this economic growth makes the environment deteriorate. These results are robust even after controlling for the omitted variable issue. The IV-FE results indicate an N-shaped relationship in the OECD countries. Practical implications Most studies have used different economic indicators as proxies to show the effects of these indicators on the environment, but they are flawed and outdated regarding the large social challenges facing contemporary, socio-financial economic systems. To overcome these disadvantages, the social, institutional and environmental aspects of economic development should also be considered. Hence, this study aims to explain this issue as a relationship with several proxies in regard to environmental, foreign finance and economic aspects. Originality/value This paper uses updated data sets for analyzing the relationship between foreign finance and economic growth as a new proxy for pollution. Also, this study simulates the financial and environmental future to show their effect on investments in different OECD countries. While this study enhances the literature by establishing an innovative control during analysis, this will increase to add value. This study is among the few studies that empirically investigate the non-linear relationship between finance and environmental degradation.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the El Nino and its effects on maize production in three municipalities: Ejura, Techiman and Wenchi in the transitional zone of Ghana. Using a mixed approach, the study details the effects of the El Nino on rainy season characteristics, particularly, rainfall amounts and distribution, onset and cessation of rains, duration of the rainy season and total seasonal rainfall and how it impacted smallholder maize production. Design/methodology/approach The study used a mixed method approach in collecting and analyzing data. For stronger evidence building, (Creswell, 2013) the authors combined interviews and focus group discussions (FGD) to collect the qualitative data. Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to extension officers, management information system officers and other relevant personnel of the Ministry of Agriculture in the three municipalities. Six FGD’s were held for maize farmers in six communities in all three municipalities. Findings The study shows that the 2015 El Nino had dire consequences on farm yields, subsequently affecting farmer’s incomes and livelihoods. The study further finds that complex socio-cultural factors, some unrelated to the El Nino, aggravated the effects on maize farmers. These include the lack of adequate climatic information, predominance of rain-fed farming, a lack of capacity to adapt and existing levels of poverty. Originality/value The study recommends inter alia, appropriate use of seasonal rainfall forecasting to enhance better farming decision-making and the development of elaborate climate variability interventions by national and local agencies.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper was to study the genetic variability, heritability, heat tolerance indices and phenotypic and genotypic correlation studies for traits of 250 elite International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) bread wheat genotypes under high temperature in Wad Medani, Center in Sudan. Design/methodology/approach Bread wheat is an important food on a global level and is used in the form of different products. High temperature associated with climate change is considered to be a detrimental stress in the future on world wheat production. A total of 10,250 bread wheat genotypes selected from different advanced yield trials introduction from ICARDA and three checks including were grown in two sowing dates (SODs) (1st and 2nd) 1st SOD heat stress and 2nd SOD non-stress at the Gezira Research Farm, of the Agricultural Research Corporation, Wad Medani, Sudan. Findings An alpha lattice design with two replications was used to assess the presence of phenotypic and genotypic variations of different traits, indices for heat stress and heat tolerance for 20 top genotypes and phenotypic and genotypic correlations. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences among genotypes for all the characters. A wide range, 944-4,016 kg/ha in the first SOD and 1,192-5,120 kg/ha in the second SOD, was found in grain yield. The average yield on the first SOD is less than that of the secondnd SOD by 717.7 kg/ha, as the maximum and minimum temperatures were reduced by 3ºC each in the second SOD when compared to the first SOD of the critical stage of crop growth shown. Research limitations/implications Similar wide ranges were found in all morpho-physiological traits studied. High heritability in a broad sense was estimated for days to heading and maturity. Moderate heritability estimates found for grain yield ranged from 44 to 63.6 per cent, biomass ranged from 37.8 to 49.1 per cent and canopy temperature (CT) after heading ranged from 44.2 to 48 per cent for the first and secondnd SODs. The top 20 genotypes are better than the better check in the two sowing dates and seven genotypes (248, 139, 143, 27, 67, 192 and 152) were produced high grain yield under both 1st SOD and 2nd SOD. Practical implications The same genotypes in addition to Imam (check) showed smaller tolerance (TOL) values, indicating that these genotypes had a smaller yield reduction under heat-stressed conditions and that they showed a higher heat stress susceptibility index (SSI). A smaller TOL and a higher SSI are favored. Both phenotypic and genotypic correlations of grain yield were positively and significantly correlated with biomass, harvest index, number of spikes/m2, number of seeds/spike and days to heading and maturity in both SODs and negatively and significantly correlated with canopy temperature before and after heading in both SODs. Originality/value Genetic variations, heritability, heat tolerance indices and correlation studies for traits of bread wheat genotypes under high temperature

Description: Purpose The authors investigate natural disasters’ impact on manufacturing and services foreign direct investment (FDI), both, in contemporaneous and time-lag contexts. Manufacturing and services FDI account for different types of technology transfers, respectively, through tangible physical assets and intangible knowledge assets. This paper aims to hypothesize that natural disasters that have pronounced physical impact, have different effect on different sectoral FDI. Design/methodology/approach The authors merge a data set from emergency events database, which covers natural disasters occurrences with a sector-level data on FDI for 69 countries for the period 1980-2011, distinguishing between four different kinds of natural disasters such as meteorological, climate, hydrological and geophysical, as well as between different geographical regions. Findings Controlling for commonly accepted determinants of FDI, such as output growth, quality of institutions and natural resource abundance, the authors find that manufacturing FDI is negatively affected immediately after the disaster and positively in the longer run- a finding that is in unison with the “creative destruction” growth theory. Services FDI, on the other hand, do not show such pattern. Meteorological disasters have no effect on services FDI and climate and hydrological disasters have long-lasting negative effects. For both, manufacturing and services FDI, geophysical disasters have a positive impact on FDI in the long run. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to 69 countries for the period 1980-2011. Practical implications FDI bears tangible and intangible knowledge assets and provides means of financing, even in countries with under-developed banking systems and stock markets. FDI is impacted by climate change, manifested by intensifying and increase of frequency of natural disasters. Social implications Natural disasters destroy infrastructure and displace people. The rebuilding of infrastructure and intangible capital present an opportunity for upgrading. Originality/value This is the first study that analyzes the impact of natural disasters on sector-level FDI in a multicounty and regional context.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between gender and social capital in adapting to climate variability in the arid and semi-arid regions in Turkana in Kenya. Design/methodology/approach This paper undertook literature review of secondary data sources, conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs). The statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) was used to analyze data for the quantitative part of the paper. Findings Vulnerability is influenced by age, gender, education and disability. Elderly women are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate variability and change because they are the poorest in the community, followed by elderly men, the disabled, female-headed households, married women, men and, finally, the youth. Less than 30 per cent of women and men in both Katilu and Loima are able to read and write. The cross-tabulation results show that there is a statistical significant relationship between gender, age and education level and climate change vulnerability. This implies that gender, age and education level have a significant effect on climate change vulnerability. Research limitations/implications The research coverage was limited to only two regions in Turkana because of time and economic constraints. Practical implications The lack of attention to gender in the climate change literature has time and again resulted in an oversimplification of women’s and men's experience of climate risks. Improved development assistance, investments and enhanced targeting of the truly vulnerable within pastoral societies demand an acceptance of underdevelopment in arid and semi-arid regions in Kenya because of historical imbalances in investment; the recognition that vulnerability of pastoralists is neither uniform nor universal and the need to consider differences like age, gender and education. Policy-makers should understand that pastoralists in the past have used indigenous knowledge to cope with and adapt to climate change. The current-recurrent and intensity droughts require investment in modern technology, equipping pastoralists with relevant information and skills to make them resilient to climate change and implementing existing and relevant policies for northern Kenya. Social implications This paper draws from several other efforts to show the critical relationships between gender, social capital and climate change. They are tracking adaptation and measuring development framework; ending drought emergencies common programme framework; and feminist evaluation approach. Originality/value This paper is important in identifying the link between gender, social capital and adaptation to climate change.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is understand these perceptions and identify main problems associated to climate change in order to design effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to guarantee the sustainability of tourism and natural resources. The Mediterranean basin is a leading international tourist destination and one that is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Although these effects are largely known, in-depth studies of how they and the associated risks are perceived by key tourism stakeholders have not been performed. Design/methodology/approach Interviews were held with 31 hotels, campsites and rural lodgings in the Muga River basin in north-east Catalonia, in which both owners and managers were asked about their perceptions of climate change, effects and countermeasures. Findings Perceptions of climate change and its effects varied according to the type of establishment and location (coast, cities or inland). Significant differences were observed for perceptions of how responsibilities for implementing mitigation and adaptation measures to counter the effects of climate change, including water shortages, should be shared out between the main agents with an interest in guaranteeing the sustainability of tourism, namely, government bodies, tourist establishments and clients. The predominant opinion, however, was that the bulk of the responsibility should lie with government bodies. Practical implications Only when those responsible for running tourist establishments are aware of the risks of climate change, it will be possible to design and implement effective short-, medium- and long-term strategies aimed at strengthening the resilience of the tourist industry. Originality/value The originality of this study lies in its novel methodology and approach, which involved analyzing perceptions of climate change, including water shortages and its effects among owners and managers of different types of tourist accommodation establishments in distinct parts of the same area.

Description: Purpose This study aims to present the climate change effect on soil moisture regimes in Mexico in a global 1.5°C warming scenario. Design/methodology/approach The soil moisture regimes were determined using the Newhall simulation model with the database of mean monthly precipitation and temperature at a scale of 1: 250,000 for the current scenario and with the climate change scenarios associated with a mean global temperature increase of 1.5°C, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 and three general models of atmospheric circulation, namely, GFDL, HADGEM and MPI. The different vegetation types of the country were related to the soil moisture regimes for current conditions and for climate change. Findings According to the HADGEM and MPI models, almost the entire country is predicted to undergo a considerable increase in soil moisture deficit, and part of the areas of each moisture regime will shift to the next drier regime. The GFDL model also predicts this trend but at smaller proportions. Originality/value The changes in soil moisture at the regional scale that reveal the impacts of climate change and indicate where these changes will occur are important elements of the knowledge concerning the vulnerability of soils to climate change. New cartography is available in Mexico.

Description: Purpose It is globally accepted that climate change is presently the greatest threat to the sustainability of human livelihood and biodiversity. Most farmers in the study area are highly aware of climate change and its consequences on the farming system; however, mitigation strategies are clearly lacking. Among the mitigation, mechanism to reduce the threat is achieved by increasing the amount of carbon sinks and reducing greenhouse gas emission through the adoption of agroforestry practices. The purpose of this study is to determine if awareness on climate change leads to the adoption of agroforestry practices, and to examine the determinants. Design/methodology/approach A total number of 117 questionnaires were administered to the farmers in the district using stratified random sampling technique. Data were captured and analysed using STATA and XLSTAT software. Descriptive statistics and Heckprobit sample selection model were used to determine the objectives of the study. Findings The result established that climate change awareness does not lead to the adoption of agroforestry in the study area in which information source and member’s association were statistically significant at (p 

Description: Purpose The purpose of this study is to discuss how enhancing the role of local institutions (LI) and incorporating indigenous knowledge (IK) in climate change adaptation planning can improve adoption and scaling success of climate-smart agriculture innovations. Design/methodology/approach A review of relevant literature from sub-Saharan Africa was used to answer the study research questions. Findings Embracing IK and LI in climate change adaptation projects can enhance adoption and scaling success of climate-smart agriculture innovations in smallholder farming. Such efforts will improve: information gathering and dissemination, mobilization of resources, establishment of useful networks with relevant stakeholders, capacity building farmers on various fronts and provision of leadership in climate adaptation programs. Practical implications Fully embracing IK and LI can improve the scaling of climate-smart innovations only if development partners recognize IK systems that are to be transformed and build on them instead of trying to replace them. Also, participatory approaches in scaling innovations will enhance input from rural people in climate change adaptation programs. Originality/value Development interventions aimed at taking proven effective climate-smart innovations to scale must, therefore, engage local communities and their indigenous institutions as active stakeholders in designing, planning and implementation of their climate adaptation programs.

Description: Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of crop diversification (CD), as a climate change adaptation strategy, on farm household’s welfare in terms of farm income and demand for labor. It explores whether adoption of CD is a win-win strategy on household income and demand for on-farm labor. It also examines the determinants of rural household’s net farm income and family labor demand. Design/methodology/approach A household-plot level data were collected in 2015 from 929 rural farm households and 4,778 plots in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The data comprise farm and household characteristics accompanied by geo-referenced climate data such as long-term average temperature and amount and variability of growing season rainfall. The authors estimate an endogenous switching regression model to measure the effect of CD on the farm household’s welfare, using net farm income and household labor demand as a welfare indicator. Findings The results indicate heterogeneous effects of climate variables on farm income between adopters and non-adopters of CD. The study also confirms the win-win effect of adoption of CD with a positive and significant effect on farm income and a reduction in demand for on-farm labor. The results suggest that adoption of CD helps improve the well-being of farm households and build a resilient agricultural system. Research limitations/implications As the study used a cross-sectional data, it is limited to show the time effect of practicing CD on the household’s welfare. Originality/value First, the authors investigate, to their knowledge for the first time, the existence of synergy or tradeoff in the effect of CD on two dimensions of rural households’ welfare (net farm income and labor demand). Second, they investigate the heterogeneous effect of climate change adaptation strategies on the farm household’s welfare between adopters and non-adopters. This is unlike previous studies that consider climate change adaptation strategies as having a homogeneous effect. However, this approach is inappropriate since the effect of adaptation strategies is different for adopters and non-adopters.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to understand the vulnerability of community livelihoods (human, social, financial, natural and physical assets) at a coastal environment in southern Mozambique, considering the level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the sustainable livelihoods approach. Data were collected through distribution of a structured questionnaire to 476 randomly selected households at the municipality of Inhambane. The questionnaire assessed all capital assets, covering 14 indicators and 43 sub-indicators of vulnerability, derived from published literature. Findings Results indicate that overall community vulnerability is largely derived from the vulnerability of physical, financial and social capitals, illustrated by declared food shortage, low nutrition levels, weak social networks, high level of biomass utilization and lack of financial resources due to unemployment. These aspects largely influence the noticed reduced adaptive capacity of surveyed households. Practical implications The study identified the need to improve the overall process of natural resources appropriation and utilization and the improvement of the governance capacity at the local targeting infrastructure, community structure and networks and capacity building that might enhance community livelihoods in changing scenarios. Originality/value The study is a contribution to the overall understanding of how livelihoods are exposed to climate change and variability in coastal settings.

Description: Purpose Extreme high temperatures are a significant feature of global climate change and have become more frequent and intense in recent years. These pose a significant threat to both human health and economic activity, and thus are receiving increasing research attention. Understanding the hazards posed by extreme high temperatures are important for selecting intervention measures targeted at reducing socioeconomic and environmental damage. Design/methodology/approach In this study, detrended fluctuation analysis is used to identify extreme high-temperature events, based on homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperatures from nine meteorological stations in a major grassland region, Hulunbuir, China, over the past 56 years. Findings Compared with the commonly used functions, Weibull distribution has been selected to simulate extreme high-temperature scenarios. It has been found that there was an increasing trend of extreme high temperature, and in addition, the probability of its indices increased significantly, with regional differences. The extreme high temperatures in four return periods exhibited an extreme low hazard in the central region of Hulunbuir, and increased from the center to the periphery. With the increased length of the return period, the area of high hazard and extreme high hazard increased. Topography and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns may be the main factors influencing the occurrence of extreme high temperatures. Originality/value These results may contribute to a better insight in the hazard of extreme high temperatures, and facilitate the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the adverse effects.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate a recent trend in climate change and its impact on livelihood of community living in Nam Dinh province, Vietnam. Further, it aims to increase the government attention for adaptation measures by providing awareness of climate change and its negative impacts on livelihood. Design/methodology/approach For study purpose, cross-sectional and secondary data sets were used. The community perceptions about climate change were recorded by face-to-face interviews of 500 respondents from Nam Dinh province, Vietnam in April 2015 by using a well-structured questionnaire, whereas secondary data were collected from the statistical yearbook of General Statistics Office of Vietnam. To accomplish the study objectives, Cobb–Douglas production function and Likert scale were used to estimate the community perceptions of climate change and impact of climate change on livelihood, respectively. Findings Results depict that climate change negatively impacted on the productivity of rice and livestock. Particularly, frequently occurring of droughts, floods and salinity intrusion negatively impacted on rice productivity, while livestock productivity is decreased by frequent occurring of flood storms in study area. Originality/value The study results suggest a government support is essential to achieve sustainable livelihoods for coastal communities living in the Red River Delta, particularly some adaptation measures in the context of climate change are required in study area.

Description: PurposeThis study aims to explore the link between mortality and climate change. The focus is in particular on individuals’ adaptation to temperature changes. The authors analyze the relationship between climatic change (measured by temperature rate) and mortality in 23 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries during 1970-2010.Design/methodology/approachThis study performs the adaptation regression model in the level form as a dynamic panel fixed effects model. The authors use a non-linear threshold estimation approach to examine the extreme temperature changes effect on the temperature–mortality relation. More specifically, the study explores whether the large increases/decreases in temperature rates affect mortality rates more than the modest changes.FindingsThis study indicates that the temperature–mortality relation is significant in early part of the sample period (before 1990) but insignificant during the second part (after 1990). After including controlling factors, as well as nation and year fixed effects, the authors provide evidence that people do adapt to the most of the temperature-related mortalities. Also, this study provides evidence of the non-linear relationship between national temperatures and mortality rates. It is observed that only after 5 per cent increase in the annual temperature, the relation between temperature and overall mortality is significant.Originality/valueMost studies cover only one specific country, hence making it difficult to generalize across countries. Therefore, the authors argue that the best estimation of the health effects of temperature change can be found by modeling the past relationships between temperature and mortality across countries for a relatively long period. To the authors’ knowledge, previous studies have not systemically tested the adaptation effect across countries.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on economic development in Bangladesh. More specifically, the research aims to figure out the influence of climate change on gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate related to different sectors such as agriculture, forest, water, health and infrastructure. It also attempts to explore the effect of climate change on the coastal economy of Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A set of statistical and econometric techniques, including descriptive and correlation analysis and time series regression model, was applied to address the objective of the research. Sector-wise time series economic data were collected from the World Bank for the period between 1971 and 2013. Climate data were received from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council online database for the period between 1948 and 2013. Findings The results from the statistical analysis show that climate variables such as temperature and rainfall have changed between 1948 and 2013 in the context of Bangladesh. The econometric regression analysis demonstrates that an increase by 1°C of annual mean temperature leads to a decrease in the GDP growth rate by 0.44 per cent on average, which is statistically significant at the 5 per cent level. On the other hand, the estimated coefficients of agriculture, industry, services, urbanization and export are positively associated with GDP growth rate, and these are statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. Sector-wise correlation analysis provides statistical evidence that climate change is negatively associated with various sectors, such as agriculture, forest, human health and arable land. In contrast, it has a positive relation to water access and electricity consumption. Analysis of coastal regions shows that climate change negatively affects the local economic sectors of the coastal zone of the country. Originality/value Although this study has received significant insight from the world-renowned research publication “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review”, there is a dearth of research on the economic impact of climate change in the context of Bangladesh. The findings of the paper provide deep insight into and comprehensive views of policy makers on the impact of climate change on economic growth and various sectors in Bangladesh.

Description: Purpose Between 2006 and 2016, local communities in semi-arid Bobirwa sub-district in the Limpopo Basin part of Botswana had endured notable fluctuations in the delivery of critical ecosystem services. These changes have been coupled with adverse effects on local people’s livelihood options and well-being. However, a few such studies have focussed on the semi-arid to arid landscapes. This study therefore aims to provide recent knowledge and evidence of consequences of environmental change on semi-arid arid landscapes and communities. Methodology To examine these recent changes in key ecosystem services, the authors conducted six participatory mapping processes, eight key informant interviews and several rapid scoping appraisals in three study villages. The analyses were centred on changes in seasonal quantities, seasonality, condition of ecosystem service sites, distance to ecosystem service sites and total area providing these services. Drivers of change in the delivery of key ecosystem services and the associated adverse impacts on human well-being of these recent changes in bundles of ecosystem services delivered were also analyzed. Findings Results show that adverse weather conditions, drought frequency, changes in land-use and/or land-cover together with unsustainable harvesting because of human influx on local resources have intensified in the past decade. There was circumstantial evidence that these drivers have resulted in adverse changes in quantities and seasonality of key ecosystem services such as edible Mopane caterpillars, natural pastures, wild fruits and cultivated crops. Similarly, distance to, condition and total area of sites providing some of the key ecosystem services such as firewood and natural pastures changed adversely. These adverse changes in the key ecosystem services were shown to increasingly threaten local livelihoods and human well-being. Research limitations/implications This paper discusses the importance of engaging rural communities in semi-arid areas in a participatory manner and how such information can provide baseline information for further research. The paper also shows the utility of such processes and information toward integrating community values and knowledge into decisions regarding the management and utilization of local ecosystem services under a changing climate in data-poor regions such as the Bobirwa sub-district of Botswana. However, the extent to which this is possible depends on the decision makers’ willingness to support local initiatives through existing government structures and programmes. Originality/value This study shows the importance of engaging communities in a participatory manner to understand changes in local ecosystem services considering their unique connection with the natural environment. This is a critical step for decision makers toward integrating community values in the management and utilization of ecosystem services under a changing climate as well as informing more sustainable adaptive responses in semi-arid areas. However, the extent to which decision makers can integrate such findings to inform more sustainable responses to declining capacity of local ecosystems in semi-arid areas depends on how they value the bottom-up approach of gaining local knowledge as well as their willingness to support local initiatives through existing government structures and programmes.

Description: Purpose Urban landscapes play a significant role in supporting municipal, ecological and social systems. Besides, valuable environmental services and urban green spaces provide social and psychological services, very important for the liveability of modern cities and the well-being of urban residents. It is clear that the area of green space in a city, the method of designing urban landscape and access to urban green space potentially affect the health, happiness, comfort, safety and security of urban dwellers. Urban landscape plays a significant role in providing habitats for wildlife, and an important vegetation type in doing this is species-rich herbaceous vegetation that provides pollen and nectar plus physical habitat for native fauna. Any factor that makes an impression on the urban landscape (such as climate change) will affect people’s lives directly or indirectly. There is a universal consensus that the temperature has increased in most of the world over the past century the investigation of climate change impacts on the urban landscape is the purpose of this study. Findings Understanding the process of climate change adaptation is necessary to design plant communities for use in public landscapes. Increased CO2 and air temperature in conjunction with the changing rainfall conditions, as the three important factors of climate change, potentially alter almost all world ecosystems. Climate change provides new opportunities, and in some cases, an obligate need to use non-native plant species in conjunction with native plant species, not only to reduce the side effects of climate change but also to increase the species diversity and aesthetic value in meadow-like naturalistic planting design. Originality/value The authors confirm that this work is original and has not been published elsewhere. In this paper, the authors report on the effects of climate change on urban landscape and suggest different kind of solutions to reduce the effects. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of landscape architecture, landscape ecologist, landscape planner, landscape managers and environmental designer.

Description: Purpose The paper aims to compare and evaluate two Norwegian municipal networks for climate change adaptation, to see how such networks should be initiated and implemented as a means of achieving adaptation measures within municipalities. Design/methodology/approach The findings are based on 12 qualitative interviews taken from two case studies, and the results are explained in relation to the multilevel network framework and environmental psychology. Findings Multilevel networks can promote learning and identification of specific actions in connection with climate change adaptation. The aim should be to establish interdisciplinarity, with participants from at least two authority levels. Representatives should be in positions that enable them to introduce acquired knowledge to the organization and influence its application. A network requires organizational commitment, during the initial phase and throughout the follow-up process. Municipal leaders (mayors) must be aware of the network, act as signatories to relevant documents, and be familiar with participating representatives. Commitment to knowledge application within the organization also requires that participants understand where and how to work strategically to convert new ideas into action. Practical implications This paper presents practical and research-based guidelines for the management of climate change adaptation networks at municipal, county and national authority levels. Originality/value This paper combines political science and environmental psychology perspectives as a means of analysing network achievements. A psychological approach may help to promote a greater understanding of why and how network knowledge is transferred.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of environmental policy China’s national program to address climate change on carbon emission efficiency. Design Based on the directional distance function, the provincial total factor carbon emission efficiency was measured. Then, the authors analyzed the effect of environmental policy on carbon emission efficiency based on a difference in difference model. Finding Carbon emission efficiency has been significantly improved since the environmental policy China’s national program to address climate change was put forwarded, but the positive impact in different periods and regions is different. In addition, the environmental policy improves the carbon emission efficiency through the reduction of energy intensity and adjustment of the industrial structure. Originality/value This is the first time to use difference in difference model to use a difference in difference model to quantitatively assess the influence of environmental policy China’s national program to address climate change on carbon emission efficiency.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of the important rangeland shrub, Atriplex leucoclada (Boiss) to both climate change and livestock grazing, within the Syrian rangelands as a representative landscape type of West Asia. Design/methodology/approach Ecologically based quantitative niche models were developed for both shrub species using maximum entropy and 13 spatially explicit GIS-based layers to predict current and future species distribution scenarios. Climatic variables varied over time in line with the predictions created from the HADCM3 global circulation model. Findings Results indicate that with grazing and climate change, the distribution of A. leucoclada will be reduced by 54 per cent in 2050, with the mean annual and minimum temperatures of the coldest month having the highest contribution in the model (28.7 and 21.2 per cent, respectively). The contribution of the grazing pressure, expressed by the overgrazing index, was estimated at 8.2 per cent. Originality/value These results suggest that the interaction of climate and increased grazing has the potential to favor the establishment of unpalatable species, while reducing the distribution of preferred plant species on western Asia rangelands.

Description: Purpose In recent years, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) was introduced to Vietnam to enhance farmers’ resilience and adaptation to climate change. Among the climate-smart agricultural technologies (CSATs) introduced were water-saving techniques and improved stress tolerant varieties. This study aims to examine the determinants of farmers’ adoption of these technologies and the effects of their adoption on net rice income (NRI) in three provinces as follows: Thai Binh (North), Ha Tinh (Central) and Bac Lieu (South). Design/methodology/approach Determinants of adoption of CSATs and the adoption effects on NRI are analyzed by using a multinomial endogenous switching regression framework. Findings The results showed that gender, age, number of family workers, climate-related factors, farm characteristics, distance to markets, access to climate information, confidence on the know-how of extension workers, membership in social/agricultural groups and attitude toward risk were the major factors affecting the decision to adopt CSATs. However, the effects of these factors on the adoption of CSATs varied across three provinces. These technologies when adopted tend to increase NRI but the increase is much greater when these are combined. Practical implications It is important to consider first the appropriateness of the CSA packages to the specific conditions of the target areas before they are promoted. It is also necessary to enhance the technical capacity of local extension workers and provide farmers more training on CSATs. Originality/value This study is the first attempt to identify key determinants of adoption of CSATs either singly or in combination and the adoption effects on NRI in Vietnam.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement. Design/methodology/approach The analyses are based on the IPCC’s own reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model-calculated temperatures and the warming effects of greenhouse gases based on the critical studies of climate sensitivity (CS). Findings The future emission and temperature trends are calculated according to a baseline scenario by the IPCC, which is the worst-case scenario RCP8.5. The selection of RCP8.5 can be criticized because the present CO2 growth rate 2.2 ppmy−1 should be 2.8 times greater, meaning a CO2 increase from 402 to 936 ppm. The emission target scenario of COP21 is 40 GtCO2 equivalent, and the results of this study confirm that the temperature increase stays below 2°C by 2100 per the IPCC calculations. The IPCC-calculated temperature for 2016 is 1.27°C, 49 per cent higher than the observed average of 0.85°C in 2000. Originality/value Two explanations have been identified for this significant difference in the IPCC’s calculations: The model is too sensitive for CO2 increase, and the positive water feedback does not exist. The CS of 0.6°C found in some critical research studies means that the temperature increase would stay below the 2°C target, even though the emissions would follow the baseline scenario. This is highly unlikely because the estimated conventional oil and gas reserves would be exhausted around the 2060s if the present consumption rate continues.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess indigenous climate governance through climate change and variability discourse by a rural Zimbabwean community. In Zimbabwe, climate governance has largely been presented from a political angle as indicated in the current climate governance structure. Apparently, the structure does not directly involve rural communities who at the same time suffer the most from the effects of climate change. Hence, the study intends to demonstrate that the manner in which humans perceive climate change influences their responses and actions vis-à-vis climate governance. Design/methodology/approach This qualitative study used 20 participants from a rural community in Zimbabwe. Their experiences were used as lances through which indigenous climate governance could be envisioned and executed. In-depth interviews were used to collect data and thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. Findings The study found that climate change perceptions and observations of weather conditions informs the community’s decisions on how to adapt to the impacts of climate change vis-à-vis indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) climate governance. The study also proposed a paradigm shift from a Western-oriented climate governance structure that currently exists in Zimbabwe to an indigenous model through a proposed IKS governance structure. This was considered significant because of the fact that it closely accommodates the community based on their lifestyle. Originality/value The study proposes a paradigm shift from a Western-oriented climate governance structure that currently exist in Zimbabwe to an indigenous model through a proposed IKS governance structure. This is arrived at by assessing climate change perceptions, narratives and experiences by community members. This is of particular importance because a few scholars have explored climate governance via IKS.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the benefits of reintroducing traditional grazing systems practices for improving arid rangelands. Grazing is the most extensive land use in southern Tunisia, but the rangelands have suffered many decades of severe degradation due to profound socioeconomic changes and the emergence of an agro-pastoral society in place of the former pastoral one. Traditional grazing systems (gdel and herd mobility), which had historically allowed for grazing deferment and control of grazing livestock were abandoned. Yet grazing management strategies are important tools to sustain integrated livestock rangeland production systems in dry areas in the face of ongoing climate change and human pressure. Design/methodology/approach This study assesses the revival of traditional best practices of rangeland resting in a representative community. Total plant cover, species composition, flora richness and range production were determined in six rangeland sites subjected respectively to one, two and three years of rest; one and two years of light grazing after rest; and free grazing (control). Findings Results showed that dry rangelands keep their resilience to the negative effects of climate change once human pressure is controlled. A maximum of two years of rest is enough to sustainably manage the rangelands in southern Tunisia, as this protection showed considerable and positive effects on the parameters scored. Originality/value The revival of the traditional best practices under new arrangements adapted to current biophysical and socioeconomic conditions would be an excellent tool to mitigate the negative effects of frequent droughts and reduce the animal feed costs that poor farmers face.

Description: Purpose This paper aims to study the temporal and spatial variation of vegetation and the influence of climate change on vegetation coverage in the Yellow River basin, China. The current study aimed to evaluate the role of a series of government-led environmental control projects in restoring the ecological environment of the Yellow River basin. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses unary linear regression, Mann–Kendall and wavelet analyses to study the spatial–temporal variations of vegetation and the response to climate changes in the Yellow River, China. Findings The results showed that for the past 17 years, not only the mean annual increase rate of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was 0.0059/a, but the spatial heterogeneity also yields significant results. The vegetation growth in the southeastern region was significantly better than that in the northwestern region. The variation period of the NDVI in the study area significantly shortened, and the most obvious oscillation period was half a year, with two peaks in one year. In addition, there are positive and negative effects of human activities on the change of vegetation cover of the Loess Plateau. The project of transforming cultivated land to forest and grassland promotes the increase of vegetation cover of the Loess plateau. Unfortunately, the regional urbanization and industrialization proliferated, and the overloading of grazing, deforestation, over-reclamation, and the exploitation and development of the energy area in the grassland region led to the reduction of the NDVI. Fortunately, the positive effects outweigh the negative ones. Originality/value This paper provides a comprehensive insight to analysis of the vegetation change and the responses of vegetation to climate change, with special reference to make the planning policy of ecological restoration. This paper argues that ecological restoration should be strengthened in areas with annual precipitation less than 450 mm.

Description: Purpose Productivity and production risks affect the use of agricultural production practices and inputs, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to investigate the effects of adopting drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on farm productivity, yield variance and downside risk exposure of maize growing households of Zambia. Design/methodology/approach The study uses household survey data collected from 11 maize producing districts of Eastern, Southern and Copperbelt provinces of Zambia using a structured questionnaire. The Antle’s flexible moment-based approach was used in specifying, estimating and testing a stochastic production function. The study further applied an endogenous switching regression model to control for both observable and unobservable sources of bias. Findings The study revealed that DTMV adoption increases maize yield by 15 per cent and reduces the risk of crop failure: reducing yield variance by 38 per cent and exposure to downside risk by 36 per cent. Originality/value This study establishes the benefits of DTMV adoption in Zambia with regards to productivity, yield stability and downside risk in the face of climate change. Results from this study underscore the need for more concerted efforts to scale-out DTMVs for both maize productivity enhancement and for risk mitigation against weather shocks.

Description: Purpose Emergency evacuation plans are often developed under the assumption that evacuees will use wayfinding strategies such as taking the shortest distance route to their nearest exit. The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirical data from a wildfire evacuation analyzed to determine whether evacuees took a shortest distance route to their nearest exit and to identify any alternate wayfinding strategies that they may have used. Design/methodology/approach The wildfire evacuation analysis presented in this paper is the outcome of a natural experiment. A post-fire online survey was conducted, which included an interactive map interface that allowed evacuees to identify the route that they took. The survey results were integrated with several additional data sets using a GIS. Network analysis was used to compare the routes selected by evacuees to their shortest distance routes, and statistical hypothesis testing was employed to identify the wayfinding strategies that may have been used. Findings The network analysis revealed that 31 percent of evacuees took a shortest distance route to their nearest exit. Hypothesis testing showed that evacuees selected routes that had significantly longer distances and travel times than the shortest distance routes, and indicated that factors such as the downhill slope percentage of routes and the elevation of exits may have impacted the wayfinding process. Research limitations/implications This research is best regarded as a spatiotemporal snapshot of wayfinding behavior during a single wildfire evacuation, but could inspire additional research to establish more generalizable results. Practical implications This research may help emergency managers develop more effective wildfire evacuation plans. Originality/value This research presents an analysis of an original data set that contributes to the broader body of scientific knowledge on wayfinding and spatial behavior during emergency evacuations.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how experiencing moderate earthquakes influences risk perception and preparedness. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was conducted on a nationally representative sample of Korean adults after the moderate earthquake in Pohang in 2017. Statistical analyses were conducted to identify the determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for seismic retrofitting and earthquake insurance. Findings The results show that risk perception, housing ownership, earthquake experience and income level significantly influenced WTP for seismic retrofitting and earthquake insurance. The results also indicate that a greater number of damage-free earthquake experiences reduced the WTP that could be explained by normalcy bias. Finally, people who believed that the Pohang earthquake might be an example of induced seismicity (i.e. triggered by the geothermal power plant) tended to have a lower WTP for seismic retrofitting. Originality/value This study offers valuable findings on public attitudes about enhancing earthquake preparedness policies in moderate earthquake zones, regions that few studies have examined despite their high vulnerability due to a lack of preparedness.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of “Interconnected Geoscience” to a disaster and risk reduction (DRR) case study at SECMOL College, near Leh, Ladakh, N. India. Interconnected geoscience is a model that advocates holistic approaches to geoscience for development. This paper reports research/practical work with Ladakhi students/staff, undertaking community-oriented DRR exercises in hazard awareness, DRR themed village/college mapping, vulnerability assessments and DRR management scenario development. The geoscientific hazard analysis work is published within a separate sister paper, with results feeding into this work. This work addresses aspects of, and contributes to, the DRR research(science)-policy-interface conversation. Design/methodology/approach Interconnected geoscience methodologies for DRR here are: the application of geoscience for hazard causality, spatial distribution, frequency and impact assessment, for earthquakes, floods and landslides, within the SECMOL area; the generation of community-developed DRR products and services of use to a range of end-users; the development of a contextual geoscience approach, informed by social-developmental-issues; and the active participation of SECMOL students/teachers and consequent integration of local world-views and wisdom within DRR research. Initial DRR awareness levels of students were assessed with respect to earthquakes/floods/landslides/droughts. Following hazard teaching sessions, students engaged in a range of DRR exercises, and produced DRR themed maps, data, tables and documented conversations of relevance to DRR management. Findings Students levels of hazard awareness were variable, generally low for low-frequency hazards (e.g. earthquakes) and higher for hazards such as floods/landslides which either are within recent memory, or have higher frequencies. The 2010 Ladakhi flood disaster has elevated aspects of flood-hazard knowledge. Landslides and drought hazards were moderately well understood. Spatial awareness was identified as a strength. The application of an interconnected geoscience approach immersed within a student+staff college community, proved to be effective, and can rapidly assess/build upon awareness levels and develop analytical tools for the further understanding of DRR management. This approach can assist Ladakhi regional DRR management in increasing the use of regional capability/resources, and reducing the need for external inputs. Practical implications A series of recommendations for the DRR geoscience/research-policy-practice area include: adopting an “interconnected geoscience” approach to DRR research, involving scientific inputs to DRR; using and developing local capability and resources for Ladakhi DRR policy and practice; using/further-developing DRR exercises presented in this paper, to integrate science with communities, and further-empower communities; taking account of the findings that hazard awareness is variable, and weak, for potentially catastrophic hazards, such as earthquakes, when designing policy and practice for raising DRR community awareness; ensuring that local values/world views/wisdom inform all DRR research, and encouraging external “experts” to carefully consider these aspects within Ladakh-based DRR work; and further-developing DRR networks across Ladakh that include pockets of expertise such as SECMOL. Originality/value The term “interconnected geoscience” is highly novel, further developing thinking within the research/science-policy-practice interface. This is the first time an exercise such as this has been undertaken in the Ladakh Himalaya.

Description: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of a comprehensive global database on volcanic unrest (WOVOdat) as a resource to improve eruption forecasts, hazard evaluation and mitigation actions. Design/methodology/approach WOVOdat is a centralized database that hosts multi-parameter monitoring data sets from unrest and eruption episodes of volcanoes worldwide. Its online interface (https://wovodat.org/) allows interactive data analysis and comparison between volcanoes and eruption styles, which is needed during volcanic crises, as well as to perform basic research on pre-eruption processes, teaching and outreach. Findings WOVOdat aims to standardize and organize the myriad of monitoring data types at the global scale. Users can compare changes during a crisis to past unrest episodes, and estimate probabilities of outcomes using evidence-based statistics. WOVOdat will be to volcanology as an epidemiological database is to medicine. Research limitations/implications The success of eruption forecast relies on data completeness, and thus requires the willingness of observatories, governments and researchers to share data across the volcano community. Practical implications WOVOdat is a unique resource that can be studied to understand the causes of volcanic unrest and to improve eruption forecasting. Originality/value WOVOdat is the only compilation of standardized and multi-parameter volcano unrest data from around the world, and it is freely and easily accessible through an online interface.