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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk  (10)
  • Numerical modeling  (8)
  • American Geophysical Union  (18)
  • 2010-2014  (18)
  • 1995-1999
  • 1985-1989
  • 2013  (1)
  • 2010  (17)
  • 1999
  • 1
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    The 16 November 2006 flank collapse of the south-east crater at Mount Etna, Italy: Study of the deposit and hazard assessment (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 16 November 2006 a flank collapse affected the unstable eastern slope of the South-East Crater (SEC) of Mount Etna. The collapse occurred during one of the paroxysmal events with sustained strombolian activity that characterized the August–December 2006 eruption and was triggered by erosion of loose, hydrothermally altered material of the steep south-east sector of SEC from the outpour of lava. The collapse produced a debris avalanche that involved both lithic and juvenile material and resulted in a deposit emplaced on the eastern flank of the volcano up to 1.2 km away from the source. The total volume of the deposit was estimated to be in the order of 330,000–413,000 m3. The reconstruction of the collapse event was simulated using TITAN2D software designed to model granular avalanches and landslides. This approach can be used to estimate areas that may be affected by similar collapse events in the future. The area affected by the 16 November 2006 lateral collapse of SEC was a small portion of the Mount Etna summit area, but the fact that no one was killed or injured should be considered fortuitous. The summit and adjacent areas of the volcano, in fact, are usually visited by many tourists who are not prepared to face this type of danger. The 16 November 2006 collapse points to the need to be prepared for similar events through scientific investigation (analysis of flank instability, numerical simulation of flows) and development of specific civil protection plans.
    Description: Published
    Description: B02204
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mount Etna ; flank instability ; volcaniclastic deposit ; granular flows ; numerical simulation ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Topographic control on lava flow paths at Mount Etna, Italy: Implications for hazard assessment (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Assessment of the hazard from lava flow inundation at the active volcano of Mount Etna, Italy, was performed by calculating the probability of lava flow inundation at each position on the volcano. A probability distribution for the formation of new vents was calculated using geological and volcanological data from past eruptions. The simulated lava flows from these vents were emplaced using a maximum expected flow length derived from geological data on previous lava flows. Simulations were run using DOWNFLOW, a digital-elevation-model-based model designed to predict lava flow paths. Different eruptive scenarios were simulated by varying the elevation and probability distribution of eruptive points. Inundation maps show that the city of Catania and the coastal zone may only be impacted by flows erupted from low-altitude vents (〈1500 m elevation) and that flank eruptions at elevations 〉2000 m preferentially inundate the northeast and southern sectors of the volcano as well as the Valle del Bove. Eruptions occurring in the summit area (〉3000 m elevation) pose no threat to the local population. Discrepancies between the results of simple, hydrological models and those of the DOWNFLOW model show that hydrological approaches are inappropriate when dealing with Etnean lava flows. Because hydrological approaches are not designed to reproduce the full complexity of lava flow spreading, they underestimate the catchment basins when the fluid has a complex rheology.
    Description: Published
    Description: F01019
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic hazard ; lava flow ; Mount Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna, Italy (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Forecasting the time, nature, and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions are fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high‐resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land use and civil defense planning in the long term, to quantify, in real time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.
    Description: This work was sponsored by the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, FIRB project RBAU01RMZ4 “Lava flow simulations by Cellular Automata,” and by the National Civil Defense Department and INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), project V3_6/09 “V3_6 – Etna.”
    Description: Published
    Description: B04203
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: lava flows ; volcanic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.05. Algorithms and implementation ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Principles of volcanic risk metrics: theory and the case study of Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy) (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.
    Description: Despite volcanic risk having been defined quantitatively more than 30 years ago, this risk has been managed without being effectively measured. The recent substantial progress in quantifying eruption probability paves the way for a new era of rational science-based volcano risk management, based on what may be termed ‘‘volcanic risk metrics’’ (VRM). In this paper, we propose the basic principles of VRM, based on coupling probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting with cost-benefit analysis. The VRM strategy has the potential to rationalize decision making across a broad spectrum of volcanological questions. When should the call for evacuation be made? What early preparations should be made for a volcano crisis? Is it worthwhile waiting longer? What areas should be covered by an emergency plan? During unrest, what areas of a large volcanic field or caldera should be evacuated, and when? The VRM strategy has the paramount advantage of providing a set of quantitative and transparent rules that can be established well in advance of a crisis, optimizing and clarifying decision-making procedures. It enables volcanologists to apply all their scientific knowledge and observational information to assist authorities in quantifying the positive and negative risk implications of any decision.
    Description: Published
    Description: B03213
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: risk assessment ; decision making ; campi flegrei ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Long term variations of the Campi Flegrei (Italy) volcanic system as revealed by the monitoring of hydrothermal activity (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Long duration time-series of the chemical composition of fumaroles and of soil CO2 flux reveal that important variations in the activity of the Solfatara fumarolic field, the most important hydrothermal site of Campi Flegrei, occurred in the 2000-2008 period. A continuous increase of the CO2 concentrations, and a general decrease of the CH4 concentrations are interpreted as the consequence of the increment of the relative amount of magmatic fluids, rich in CO2 and poor in CH4, hosted by the hydrothermal system. Contemporaneously, the H2O-CO2-He-N2 gas system shows remarkable compositional variations in the samples collected after July 2000 with respect to the previous ones, indicating the progressive arrival at the surface of a magmatic component different from that involved in the 1983-84 episode of volcanic unrest (1983-1984 bradyseism). The change starts in 2000 concurrently with the occurrence of relatively deep, long-period seismic events which were the indicator of the opening of an easy-ascent pathway for the transfer of magmatic fluids towards the shallower, brittle domain hosting the hydrothermal system. Since 2000, this magmatic gas source is active and causes ground deformations, seismicity as well as the expansion of the area affected by soil degassing of deeply derived CO2. Even though the activity will most probably be limited to the expulsion of large amounts of gases and thermal energy, as observed in other volcanoes and in the past activity of Campi Flegrei, the behavior of the system in the future is, at the moment, unpredictable.
    Description: Published
    Description: B03205
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: 4.5. Studi sul degassamento naturale e sui gas petroliferi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Campi Flegrei ; CO2 ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.04. Chemical and biological::03.04.06. Hydrothermal systems ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Anatomy of an unstable volcano from InSAR: Multiple processes affecting flank instability at Mt. Etna, 1994–2008 (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union.
    Description: Volcano deformation may occur under different conditions. To understand how a volcano deforms, as well as relations with magmatic activity, we studied Mt. Etna in detail using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 1994 to 2008. From 1994 to 2000, the volcano inflated with a linear behavior. The inflation was accompanied by eastward and westward slip on the eastern and western flanks, respectively. The portions proximal to the summit showed higher inflation rates, whereas the distal portions showed several sectors bounded by faults, in some cases behaving as rigid blocks. From 2000 to 2003, the deformation became nonlinear, especially on the proximal eastern and western flanks, showing marked eastward and westward displacements, respectively. This behavior resulted from the deformation induced by the emplacement of feeder dikes during the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. From 2003 to 2008, the deformation approached linearity again, even though the overall pattern continued to be influenced by the emplacement of the dikes from 2001 to 2002. The eastward velocity on the eastern flank showed a marked asymmetry between the faster sectors to the north and those (largely inactive) to the south. In addition, from 1994 to 2008 part of the volcano base (south, west, and north lower slopes) experienced a consistent trend of uplift on the order of ∼0.5 cm/yr. This study reveals that the flanks of Etna have undergone a complex instability resulting from three main processes. In the long term (103–104 years), the load of the volcano is responsible for the development of a peripheral bulge. In the intermediate term (≤101 years, observed from 1994 to 2000), inflation due to the accumulation of magma induces a moderate and linear uplift and outward slip of the flanks. In the short term (≤1 year, observed from 2001 to 2002), the emplacement of feeder dikes along the NE and south rifts results in a nonlinear, focused, and asymmetric deformation on the eastern and western flanks. Deformation due to flank instability is widespread at Mt. Etna, regardless of volcanic activity, and remains by far the predominant type of deformation on the volcano.
    Description: ESA provided the SAR data (Cat‐1 no. 4532 and GEO Supersite initiative). The DEM was obtained from the SRTM archive, while the ERS‐1/2 orbits are courtesy of the TU‐Delft, The Netherlands. This work was partially funded by INGV and the Italian DPC (DPCINGV project V4 “Flank”), the Italian DPC (under special agreement with IREA‐CNR), and the Italian Space Agency under contract “sistema rischio vulcanico (SRV).” The authors thank Francesco Casu, Paolo Berardino, and Riccardo Lanari for their support and Geoff Wadge and Michael Poland for their helpful and constructive review of the manuscript.
    Description: Published
    Description: B10405
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Flank instability ; InSAR ; volcanoes ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest::05.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount Etna (Italy) (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Forecasting the time, nature and impact of future eruptions is difficult at volcanoes such as Mount Etna, in Italy, where eruptions occur from the summit and on the flanks, affecting areas distant from each other. Nonetheless, the identification and quantification of areas at risk from new eruptions is fundamental for mitigating potential human casualties and material damage. Here, we present new results from the application of a methodology to define flexible high-resolution lava invasion susceptibility maps based on a reliable computational model for simulating lava flows at Etna and on a validation procedure for assessing the correctness of susceptibility mapping in the study area. Furthermore, specific scenarios can be extracted at any time from the simulation database, for land-use and civil defence planning in the long-term, to quantify, in real-time, the impact of an imminent eruption, and to assess the efficiency of protective measures.
    Description: This work was sponsored by the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, FIRB project n° RBAU01RMZ4 “Lava flow simulations by Cellular Automata”, and by the National Civil Defence Department and INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology), project V3_6/09 “V3_6 – Etna”.
    Description: In press
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: lava flows ; Etna ; hazard evaluation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.02. Cellular automata, fuzzy logic, genetic alghoritms, neural networks ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Signals from the Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system: Role of a ‘‘magmatic’’ source of fluids (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This is a parametric study that was carried out to investigate the signals generated by a hydrothermal system fed by a pulsating source of magmatic fluids. This study focuses on the effects that selected properties of the source have on the evolution of hydrothermal activity at Campi Flegrei, Italy. Numerical simulations are carried out to describe a multiphase and multicomponent hydrothermal system. Each simulation describes a short unrest phase, followed by a prolonged quiet period. During the unrest, specific properties of the fluid source (flow rate, fluid composition, source size, and unrest duration) are modified with respect to selected baseline values. The evolution of the system is tracked by looking at two parameters that can be monitored in active volcanic areas: the composition of fumarolic gases and gravity changes. The results describe the temporal evolution of these two observables and allow comparisons of the effects of different source properties. All of the simulated unrest events cause measurable changes in gas composition and gravity. For the geometry and system properties considered, these changes always last beyond the end of the unrest period, and can often persist for decades. Fluid flow rate is the source property that mostly affects the observable evolution. Gravity is more sensitive to source properties than gas composition, and it undergoes the largest and quickest changes. The results also highlight the major role that rock properties and initial conditions have in the evolution of these observable signals.
    Description: Department of Civil Protection
    Description: Published
    Description: B05201
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: hydrothermal fluids ; modeling ; monitoring ; signals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Major effusive eruptions and recent lava fountains : Balance between expected and erupted magma volumes at Etna volcano (2013)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Over the last four decades Etna has shown a high output rate through numerous eruptions. The volcano has displayed two eruptive behaviors. The first is characterized by effusive eruptions that efficiently drained the storage system and emitted large volumes of magma, the second behavior is related to lava fountains, erupting small magma batches, which are normally with high frequency and have been considered as precursors of major effusive eruptions. In this paper, we present an updated estimation of emitted volumes from Etna eruptions, which include the 38 lava fountain episodes that occurred from January 2011 to April 2013. These recent explosive episodes have been frequent, discharging significant magma volumes. Observing the steady trend of magma output over time, we present insights on expected erupted volumes. We highlight that the January 2011 –April 2013 lava fountains, efficiently drained the intermediate-shallow storage system and favored a balance between the incoming and outgoing magma.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6069–6073
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement ; Volcanic hazards and risks ; volcano monitoring ; erupted volumes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Magmatic and tectonic extension at mid-ocean ridges : 1. Controls on fault characteristics (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q08O10, doi:10.1029/2008GC001965.
    Description: We use 2-D numerical models to explore the thermal and mechanical effects of magma intrusion on fault initiation and growth at slow and intermediate spreading ridges. Magma intrusion is simulated by widening a vertical column of model elements located within the lithosphere at a rate equal to a fraction, M, of the total spreading rate (i.e., M = 1 for fully magmatic spreading). Heat is added in proportion to the rate of intrusion to simulate the thermal effects of magma crystallization and the injection of hot magma into the crust. We examine a range of intrusion rates and axial thermal structures by varying M, spreading rate, and the efficiency of crustal cooling by conduction and hydrothermal circulation. Fault development proceeds in a sequential manner, with deformation focused on a single active normal fault whose location alternates between the two sides of the ridge axis. Fault spacing and heave are primarily sensitive to M and secondarily sensitive to axial lithosphere thickness and the rate that the lithosphere thickens with distance from the axis. Contrary to what is often cited in the literature, but consistent with prior results of mechanical modeling, we find that thicker axial lithosphere tends to reduce fault spacing and heave. In addition, fault spacing and heave are predicted to increase with decreasing rates of off-axis lithospheric thickening. The combination of low M, particularly when M approaches 0.5, as well as a reduced rate of off-axis lithospheric thickening produces long-lived, large-offset faults, similar to oceanic core complexes. Such long-lived faults produce a highly asymmetric axial thermal structure, with thinner lithosphere on the side with the active fault. This across-axis variation in thermal structure may tend to stabilize the active fault for longer periods of time and could concentrate hydrothermal circulation in the footwall of oceanic core complexes.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by NSF grants OCE-0327018 (M.D.B.), OCE-0548672 (M.D.B.), OCE- 0327051 (G.I.), and OCE-03-51234 (G.I.).
    Keywords: Mid-ocean ridges ; Faulting ; Magmatism ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
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    Impact of circulation on export production, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved oxygen in the ocean : results from Phase II of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2) (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): GB3007, doi:10.1029/2006GB002857.
    Description: Results are presented of export production, dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved oxygen simulated by 12 global ocean models participating in the second phase of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project. A common, simple biogeochemical model is utilized in different coarse-resolution ocean circulation models. The model mean (±1σ) downward flux of organic matter across 75 m depth is 17 ± 6 Pg C yr−1. Model means of globally averaged particle export, the fraction of total export in dissolved form, surface semilabile dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and seasonal net outgassing (SNO) of oxygen are in good agreement with observation-based estimates, but particle export and surface DOC are too high in the tropics. There is a high sensitivity of the results to circulation, as evidenced by (1) the correlation of surface DOC and export with circulation metrics, including chlorofluorocarbon inventory and deep-ocean radiocarbon, (2) very large intermodel differences in Southern Ocean export, and (3) greater export production, fraction of export as DOM, and SNO in models with explicit mixed layer physics. However, deep-ocean oxygen, which varies widely among the models, is poorly correlated with other model indices. Cross-model means of several biogeochemical metrics show better agreement with observation-based estimates when restricted to those models that best simulate deep-ocean radiocarbon. Overall, the results emphasize the importance of physical processes in marine biogeochemical modeling and suggest that the development of circulation models can be accelerated by evaluating them with marine biogeochemical metrics.
    Description: R. G. N. and J. L. S. acknowledge the support of NASA grants NAG5-6451 and NAG5-6591, respectively, as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Program. G. K. P. and F. J. acknowledge support by the Swiss National Science Foundation. European contributions were supported by the EU GOSAC Project (ENV4-CT97- 0495).
    Keywords: Export production ; Numerical modeling ; Ocean circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 12
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    Sorted bed forms as self-organized patterns : 2. Complex forcing scenarios (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): F03016, doi:10.1029/2006JF000666.
    Description: We employ a numerical model to study the development of sorted bed forms under a variety of hydrodynamic and sedimentary conditions. Results indicate that increased variability in wave height decreases the growth rate of the features and can potentially give rise to complicated, a priori unpredictable, behavior. This happens because the system responds to a change in wave characteristics by attempting to self-organize into a patterned seabed of different geometry and spacing. The new wavelength might not have enough time to emerge before a new change in wave characteristics occurs, leading to less regular seabed configurations. The new seabed configuration is also highly dependent on the preexisting morphology, which further limits the possibility of predicting future behavior. For the same reasons, variability in the mean current magnitude and direction slows down the growth of features and causes patterns to develop that differ from classical sorted bed forms. Spatial variability in grain size distribution and different types of net sediment aggradation/degradation can also result in the development of sorted bed forms characterized by a less regular shape. Numerical simulations qualitatively agree with observed geometry (spacing and height) of sorted bed forms. Also in agreement with observations is that at shallower depths, sorted bed forms are more likely to be affected by changes in the forcing conditions, which might also explain why, in shallow waters, sorted bed forms are described as ephemeral features. Finally, simulations indicate that the different sorted bed form shapes and patterns observed in the field might not necessarily be related to diverse physical mechanisms. Instead, variations in sorted bed form characteristics may result from variations in local hydrodynamic and/or sedimentary conditions.
    Description: G.C., M.O.G., and T.M.H. acknowledge funding from the (New Zealand) Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (contract C01X0401). The National Science Foundation (OCE0452178) supported A.B.M.
    Keywords: Self-organization ; Sorted bed forms ; Numerical modeling
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  • 13
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    Investigation of the summer Kara Sea circulation employing a variational data assimilation technique (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): C04S15, doi:10.1029/2006JC003728.
    Description: The summer circulations and hydrographic fields of the Kara Sea are reconstructed for mean, positive and negative Arctic Oscillation regimes employing a variational data assimilation technique which provides the best fit of reconstructed fields to climatological data and satisfies dynamical and kinematic constraints of a quasi-stationary primitive equation ocean circulation model. The reconstructed circulations agree well with the measurements and are characterized by inflow of 0.63, 0.8, 0.51 Sv through Kara Gate and 1.18, 1.1, 1.12 Sv between Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land, for mean climatologic conditions, positive and negative AO indexes, respectively. The major regions of water outflow for these regimes are the St. Anna Trough (1.17, 1.21, 1.34 Sv) and Vilkitsky/Shokalsky Straits (0.52, 0.7, 0.51 Sv). The optimized velocity pattern for the mean climatological summer reveals a strong anticyclonic circulation in the central part of the Kara Sea (Region of Fresh Water Inflow, ROFI zone) and is confirmed by ADCP surveys and laboratory modeling. This circulation is well pronounced for both high and low AO phases, but in the positive AO phase it is shifted approximately 200 km west relatively to its climatological center. During the negative AO phase the ROFI locaion is close to its climatological position. The results of the variational data assimilation approach were compared with the simulated data from the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) and Naval Postgraduate School 18 km resolution (NPS-18) model to validate these models.
    Description: This research is supported by the Frontier Research System for Global Change, through JAMSTEC, Japan, and by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (under cooperative agreements OPP-0002239 and OPP-0327664 with the International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks). The development of the data assimilation system, utilized in this study, was also supported by NSF grant OCE-0118200.
    Keywords: Kara Sea ; Variational approach ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 14
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    Reply to comment by M. Ortega-Sánchez et al. on “High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes : 1. Modeling of sand waves, flying spits, and capes” (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): F01006, doi:10.1029/2007JF000885.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Morphodynamic instabilities ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
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    High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes : 1. Modeling of sand waves, flying spits, and capes (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006): F04011, doi:10.1029/2005JF000422.
    Description: Contrary to traditional findings, the deepwater angle of wave approach strongly affects plan view coastal evolution, giving rise to an antidiffusional “high wave angle” instability for sufficiently oblique deepwater waves (with angles between wave crests and the shoreline trend larger than the value that maximizes alongshore sediment transport, ∼45°). A one-contour-line numerical model shows that a predominance of high-angle waves can cause a shoreline to self-organize into regular, quasiperiodic shapes similar to those found along many natural coasts at scales ranging from kilometers to hundreds of kilometers. The numerical model has been updated from a previous version to include a formulation for the widening of an overly thin barrier by the process of barrier overwash, which is assumed to maintain a minimum barrier width. Systematic analysis shows that the wave climate determines the form of coastal response. For nearly symmetric wave climates (small net alongshore sediment transport), cuspate coasts develop that exhibit increasing relative cross-shore amplitude and pointier tips as the proportion of high-angle waves is increased. For asymmetrical wave climates, shoreline features migrate in the downdrift direction, either as subtle alongshore sand waves or as offshore-extending “flying spits,” depending on the proportion of high-angle waves. Numerical analyses further show that the rate that the alongshore scale of model features increases through merging follows a diffusional temporal scale over several orders of magnitude, a rate that is insensitive to the proportion of high-angle waves. The proportion of high-angle waves determines the offshore versus alongshore aspect ratio of self-organized shoreline undulations.
    Description: This research was funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and NSF grants DEB-05-07987 and EAR-04-44792.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Morphodynamic instabilities ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 16
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    Historic 2005 toxic bloom of Alexandrium fundyense in the western Gulf of Maine : 2. Coupled biophysical numerical modeling (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C07040, doi:10.1029/2007JC004602.
    Description: A coupled physical/biological modeling system was used to hindcast a massive Alexandrium fundyense bloom that occurred in the western Gulf of Maine in 2005 and to investigate the relative importance of factors governing the bloom's initiation and development. The coupled system consists of a state-of-the-art, free-surface primitive equation Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) tailored for the Gulf of Maine (GOM) using a multinested configuration, and a population dynamics model for A. fundyense. The system was forced by realistic momentum and buoyancy fluxes, tides, river runoff, observed A. fundyense benthic cyst abundance, and climatological nutrient fields. Extensive comparisons were made between simulated (both physical and biological) fields and in situ observations, revealing that the hindcast model is capable of reproducing the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the 2005 bloom. Sensitivity experiments were then performed to distinguish the roles of three major factors hypothesized to contribute to the bloom: (1) the high abundance of cysts in western GOM sediments; (2) strong ‘northeaster' storms with prevailing downwelling-favorable winds; and (3) a large amount of fresh water input due to abundant rainfall and heavy snowmelt. Model results suggest the following. (1) The high abundance of cysts in western GOM was the primary factor of the 2005 bloom. (2) Wind-forcing was an important regulator, as episodic bursts of northeast winds caused onshore advection of offshore populations. These downwelling favorable winds accelerated the alongshore flow, resulting in transport of high cell concentrations into Massachusetts Bay. A large regional bloom would still have happened, however, even with normal or typical winds for that period. (3) Anomalously high river runoff in 2005 resulted in stronger buoyant plumes/currents, which facilitated the transport of cell population to the western GOM. While affecting nearshore cell abundance in Massachusetts Bay, the buoyant plumes were confined near to the coast, and had limited impact on the gulf-wide bloom distribution.
    Description: Research support was provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health, National Science Foundation (NSF) grant OCE-0430723 and National Institute of Environmental Health Science (NIEHS) grant 1-P50-ES012742-01, ECOHAB program through NSF grant OCE-9808173 and NOAA grant NA96OP0099, and GOMTOX program through NOAA grant NA06NOS4780245.
    Keywords: Gulf of Maine ; Harmful algal bloom ; Numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 17
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    Detachment depth revealed by rollover deformation: An integrated approach at Mount Etna (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Flank instability is common at volcanoes, even though the subsurface structures, including the depth to a detachment fault, remain poorly constrained. Here, we use a multidisciplinary approach, applicable to most volcanoes, to evaluate the detachment depth of the unstable NE flank of Mt. Etna. InSAR observations of Mount Etna during 1995–2008 show a trapdoor subsidence of the upper NE flank, with a maximum deformation against the NE Rift. The trapdoor tilt was highest in magnitude in 2002–2004, contemporaneous with the maximum rates of eastward slip along the east flank. We explain this deformation as due to a general eastward displacement of the flank, activating a rotational detachment and forming a rollover anticline, the head of which is against the NE Rift. Established 2D rollover construction models, constrained by morphological and structural data, suggest that the east‐dipping detachment below the upper NE flank lies at around 4 km below the surface. This depth is consistent with seismicity that clusters above 2–3 km below sea level. Therefore, the episodically unstable NE flank lies above an east‐dipping rotational detachment confined by the NE Rift and Pernicana Fault. Our approach, which combines short‐term (InSAR) and long‐term (geological) observations, constrains the 3D geometry and kinematics of part of the unstable flank of Etna and may be applicable and effective to understand the deeper structure of volcanoes undergoing flank instability or unrest.
    Description: This work was partially funded by INGV and the DPC‐INGV project “Flank”, and partially by the ASI (SRV project).
    Description: Published
    Description: L16304
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: flank instability ; fault ; InSAR ; Etna ; rollover ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.11. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Barotropic tides on the southeast New England shelf : a view from a hybrid data assimilative modeling approach (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006): C08002, doi:10.1029/2005JC003254.
    Description: A high-resolution hybrid data assimilative (DA) modeling system is used to study barotropic tides and tidal dynamics on the southeast New England shelf. In situ observations include tidal harmonics of 5 major tidal constituents [M2, S2, N2, O1, and K1] analyzed from coastal sea level and bottom pressure gauges. The DA system consists of both forward and inverse models. The former is the three-dimensional, finite difference, nonlinear Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The latter is a three-dimensional linearized, frequency domain, finite element model TRUXTON. The DA system assimilates in situ observations via the inversion for the barotropic tidal open boundary conditions (OBCs). Model skill is evaluated by comparing the misfits between the observed and modeled tidal harmonics. The assimilation scheme is found effective and efficient in correcting the tidal OBCs, which in turn improve ROMS tidal solutions. Up to 50% decreases of model/data misfits are achieved after inverse data assimilation. Co-amplitude and co-phase maps and tidal current ellipses for each of 5 tidal constituents are generated, revealing complex tidal variability in this transition region between the tidally amplified Gulf of Maine in the northeast and the tidally much less energetic Middle Atlantic Bight in the southwest. Detailed examinations on the residual circulation, energetics, and momentum balances of the M2 tide reveal the key roles of the unique bottom bathymetry of Nantucket Shoals and the complex coastal geometry in affecting the regional tidal dynamics.
    Description: This work was supported by WHOI Coastal Ocean Institute Research Award. J.W. acknowledges support of the Office of Naval Research.
    Keywords: Continental shelf ; Barotropic tides ; Numerical modeling ; Data assimilation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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