ALBERT

Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.

Notes: This research explores public judgments about the threat-reducing potential of experts, individual behavior, and government spending. The data are responses of a national sample of 1225 to mail surveys that include measures of several dimensions of public judgments about violent crime, automobile accidents, hazardous chemical waste, air pollution, water pollution, global warming, AIDS, heart disease, and cancer. Beliefs about who can best mitigate threats are specific to classes of threats. In general, there is little faith that experts can do much about violent crime and automobile accidents, moderate faith in their ability to address problems of global warming, and greater expectations for expert solutions to the remaining threats. People judge individual behavior as effective in reducing the threats of violent crime, AIDS, heart disease, and automobile accidents but less so for the remaining threats. Faith in more government spending is highest for AIDS and the other two health items, lowest for the trio of violent crime, automobile accidents, and global warming, and moderate for the remaining threats. For most threats, people are not distributed at the extremes in judging mitigators. Strong attitudinal and demographic cleavages are also lacking, although some interesting relationships occur. This relative lack of sharp cleavages and the generally moderate opinion indicate ample opportunity for public education and risk communication.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.

Notes: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.

Notes: Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.

Notes: Using exploratory data analysis, probability plots, scatterplots, and computer animations to rotate and visualize the data, we fit a trivariate Normal distribution to data for the height, the natural logarithm of body weight, and the body fat for 646 men between the ages of 50 and 80 years as reported by the medical staff of the U.S. Veterans Administration's “Normative Aging Study” in Boston, MA. Although these data do not include any children, women, or young men, the measurements represent the best data that we could find through a 4-year search. We believe that these data are well measured and reliable for men in the specified age range and that these data reveal an interesting statistical pattern for use in probabilistic PBPK models.

Notes: Significant research work has been completed in the development of risk-based inservice inspection (ISI) and testing (IST) technology for nuclear power plant applications through the ASME Center For Research and Technology Development. This paper provides technology that has been developed for these engineering applications. The technology includes risk-based ranking methods, beginning with the use of plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), for the determination of risk-significant and less risk-significant components for inspection and the determination of similar populations for pumps and valves for inservice testing. Decision analysis methods are outlined for developing ISI and IST programs. This methodology integrates nondestructive examination data, structural reliability/risk assessment results, PRA results, failure data, and expert opinion to evaluate the effectiveness of ISI programs. Similarly, decision analysis uses the output of failure mode and causes analysis in combination with data, expert opinion, and PRA results to evaluate the effectiveness of IST programs. Results of pilot applications of these ASME methods to actual nuclear plant systems and components are summarized. The results of this work are already being used to develop recommended changes in ISI and IST requirements by the ASME Section XI and the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code organizations. A perspective on Code and regulatory adoption is also outlined. Finally, the potential benefits to the nuclear industry in terms of safety, person-rem exposure, and costs are summarized.

Notes: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.

Notes: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) is major metabolite of trichloroethylene (TRI) thought to contribute to its hepatocarcinogenic effects in mice. Recent studies have shown that peak blood concentrations of TCA in rats do not occur until approximately 12 hours following an oral dose of TRI. However, blood concentrations of TRI reach maximum within an hour and are nondetectable after 2 hours.(1) The results of study which examined the enterohepatic recirculation (EHC) of the principle TRI metabolited(2) was used to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for TRI, which includes enterohepatic recirculation of its metabolites. The model quantitatively predicts the uptake, distribution and elimination of TRI, trichloroethanol, trichloroethanol-glucuronide, and TCA and includes production of metabolites through the enterohepatic recirculation pathway. Physiologic parameters used in the model were obtained from the literature.(3.4) Parameters for TRI metabolism were taken from Fisher et al.(5) Other kinetic parameters were found in the literature or estimated from experimental data.(2) The model was calibrated to data from experiments of an earlier study where TRI was orally administered(2) Verification of the model was conducted using data on the enterohepatic recirculation of TCEOH and TCA(2) chloral hydrate data (infusion doses) from Merdink,(1) and TRI data from Templin(l) and Larson and Bull.(1)

Notes: Estimates were made of the numbers of liver carcinogens in 390 long-term bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP). These estimates were obtained from examination of the global pattern of p-values obtained from statistical tests applied to individual bioassays. Representative estimates of the number of liver carcinogens (90% confidence interval in parentheses) obtained in our analysis compared to NTP's determination are as follows: female rats—49 (23, 76), NTP = 30; male rats—88 (59, 116), NTP = 35; female mice—131 (105, 157), NTP = 81; male mice—100 (73, 126), NTP = 61; overall—166 (135, 197), NTP = 108. The estimator from which these estimates were obtained is biased low by an unknown amount. Consequently, this study provides persuasive evidence of the existence of more rodent liver carcinogens than were identified by the NTP.

Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.

Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.

Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.

Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.

Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Notes: Identifying the causes of accidents is a necessary prerequisite for preventive action. Some research suggests however that the analysis of accidents does not only differ between experts and laymen but that it is also linked to certain characteristics inherent in the analyst and in the social group to which he belongs: beliefs, value systems, norms, experiences in common, attitudes, roles, social and technical practices, etc. Culturally determined bias seems to affect the perception of risk and the causes of accidents. This article presents a certain number of thoughts and results based upon research carried out on causal attributions of traffic accidents in The Ivory Coast (West Africa) and discusses the importance of culture in risk-taking and accident prevention. It shows in particular that fatalistic beliefs and mystical practices influence the perception of accidents and consequently incite one to take more risks and neglect safety measures.

Notes: Since substantial bias can result from assigning some type of mean exposure to a group, risk assessments based on epidemiological data should avoid the grouping of data whenever possible. However, ungrouped data are frequently unavailable, and the question arises as to whether an arithmetic or geometric mean is the most appropriate summary measure of exposure. It is argued in this paper that one should use the type of mean for which the total risk that would result if every member of the population was exposed to the mean level is as close as possible to the actual total population risk. Using this criterion an arithmetic mean is always preferred over a geometric mean whenever the dose response is convex. In each of several data sets examined in this paper for which the dose response was not convex, an arithmetic mean was still preferred based on this criterion.

Notes: Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose (ED05) and the benchmark dose (BMD05) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED05 with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED05 for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED05 for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.

Notes: Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.

Notes: The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human-made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk-assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk-design procedures.

Notes: Importance measures have been useful in the process of extracting insights from risk analyses. Importance measures have also been suggested for use in component classification. However, there are difficulties of interpretation associated with component classification based on importance measures. This paper briefly reviews an alternative method, “Top Event Prevention Analysis,” and, based on a simple example, compares its key characteristics to those of conventional applications of importance measures. The methods are compared with respect to the task of formulating a safety case for a complex and potentially hazardous facility, in which component classification plays an important role. A key subtask is identification of a collection of design elements that is necessary and sufficient to achieve the desired level of protection of the public, the workers, and the environment. At the design stage, identifying this set helps to determine what elements to include in the final design. Separately, a similar selection process could be used in order to justify limiting the scope of regulatory oversight to a subset of design elements, on which a safety case is to be based. This step could be taken during initial review of a design, or later as part of an effort to justify relief from regulatory requirements that are burdensome but provide little actual risk reduction.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARYA safety case should arguably be based on a collection of design elements that combine to provide satisfactory plant response to important safety challenges, and provide this response with the desired reliability (achieved through redundancy and diversity in design, and programmatic support activities as necessary in implementation). The key property of such a collection resides in the set as a whole, and not in any single element: the implications of including or not including any given design element in the collection depend strongly on what other design elements are included. Given a logic model that comprehensively addresses plant response, reflecting all components under consideration, and a defense-in-depth safety standard of the kind discussed above, TEPA is capable of choosing prevention sets: subsets of components that have the desired defense-in-depth property, and are suitable candidates for serving as the nucleus of a safety case.Single-event importance measures cannot capture considerations like this, except perhaps as part of an arduous iterative reformulation of a logic model to successively remove and restore combinations of events in a trial-and-error approach to a self-consistent design solution. No method of applying conventional importance measures has been shown to produce solutions that are feasible in the sense of completing pathsets, nor is one expected. Interpreting the upper portion of a ranked list of components as a safety case would therefore be a misapplication of the importance measure concept.However, given a prevention set, one could apply importance measures to fine-tune the allocation of resources within this set. That is, one could compute importances within a model that took credit only for elements of the prevention set, and reason from there. Even in this case, some iteration might be required in order to achieve a self-consistent allocation (one for which the reliability credit taken for each component is commensurate with the resources allocated to it). In order to draw valid conclusions in an application of this type, one must recall that all importance measures are predicated on credit for all modeled components; it is invalid to infer that components can be dropped from a safety case on grounds of low calculated importance. In short, application of importance measures is valid when (a) the selection problem has been solved by other means, (b) the importances are calculated with credit only for selected components, and (c) the resources allocated to each component are commensurate with the level of credit taken for the component (e.g., credit for a component's availability is backed up by an appropriate test schedule.).A byproduct of this work is the observation that whether or not TEPA itself is applied to choose prevention sets, a useful litmus test to be applied to a safety case is simply whether it is based on a union of complete success paths. As discussed above, thinking of the safety case in this way has other benefits, in helping to identify unmodeled components and in helping to specify the demands that must be met by each component, so that programmatic activities necessary to ensure its function can be identified and carried out. This formulation of the safety case helps in thinking about the relationship between component performance and resources allocated to that component. Understanding this relationship is essential to optimizing the use of safety resources.The number of combinations (possible prevention sets) that must be examined grows very rapidly as the number of design elements and minimal cutsets increases. Therefore, many realistic problems will be very demanding computationally. To some extent, this could be considered a drawback of TEPA, but it should be understood that the underlying problem is combinatorially very difficult, and actual solutions to it should not be expected to come easily in all cases. Fortunately, as illustrated by the practical applications summarized above, many real large-scale problems have specific features that permit their solution by adaptations of the general approach.

Notes: This paper raises two questions, i.e., Are some people more prone to perceive hazards than others embedded in the same dangerous working environment?, and—if so—Is it possible to find distinguishing characteristics allowing us to profile this worker segment? A survey study was conducted among catering personnel working on a drilling platform at the continental shelf in the North sea. It was observed that some people more than others perceived hazards in their working environment. By contrasting the extreme groups, i.e., the high and low hazards perceivers it was found that sociodemographics, e.g., gender, marital status, age and working experience possessed no descriptive power. However, the findings revealed that the worker segment prone to perceive high hazards also reported higher degree of burnout, anxiety and depression than did the low hazards perceivers. They (the high hazards perceivers) were also less satisfied with their stay on the platform, and they reported more health problems as well. The findings indicate that hazards perceptions of hazards go beyond mere “cold cognition,” also tapping into negatively feelings and emotional states. Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted.

Notes: This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or “as consumed” condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.

Notes: The combination of radon and smoking produces a synergistic risk of lung cancer. Lay understanding of this risk was examined from the perspectives of mental models theory, the psychometric approach to risk perception, and optimistic bias. As assessed by interview, participants (N= 50) had more extensive mental models for the risks of smoking than for the risks of radon or the combination of radon and smoking; 32% knew little or nothing about radon. Despite reading an informational brochure, their risk-perception ratings of the three hazards showed no perception of the synergy between smoking and radon risk, although the combined hazard was rated as less familiar but more controllable than the average of the single hazards (p 〈 .01). No evidence of optimistic bias for the health consequences of radon, or the combination of radon and smoking was observed. Participants appeared to be combining the single-hazard risks subadditively to arrive at their combined-hazard risk perceptions. Further research on the integration of perceived risks would be beneficial for designing optimal communications about synergistic risk.

Notes: This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.

Notes: It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual “trust” effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Notes: The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD, values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECSQ database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD, values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mgadministered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Notes: Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.

Notes: Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample (N = 1022) was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard sociodemographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and sociodemographic variables were themselves inter correlated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues.

Notes: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.

Notes: A substantial body of risk research indicates that women and men differ in their perceptions of risk. This paper discusses how they differ and why. A review of a number of existing empirical studies of risk perception points at several problems, regarding what gender differences are found in such studies, and how these differences are accounted for. Firstly, quantitative approaches, which have so far dominated risk research, and qualitative approaches give different, sometimes even contradictory images of women's and men's perceptions of risk. Secondly, the gender differences that appear are often left unexplained, and even when explanations are suggested, these are seldom related to gender research and gender theory in any systematic way. This paper argues that a coherent, theoretically informed gender perspective on risk is needed to improve the understanding of women's and men's risk perceptions. An analysis of social theories of gender points out some relations and distinctions which should be considered in such a perspective. It is argued that gender structures, reflected in gendered ideology and gendered practice, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk. These gender differences may be of different kinds, and their investigation requires the use of qualitative as well as quantitative methods. In conclusion, the arguments about gender and risk perception are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point for further research.

Notes: The AC electric and magnetic fields associated with high voltage power lines have become a concern as a possible health risk. In most cases the strength of these fields decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the line. In earlier work, we found that laypeople do not understand how rapidly field strength decreases with distance. Most believe that any high voltage power line they can see is exposing them to strong fields. This paper confirms the earlier finding and explores a number of strategies which might be used in risk communications to correct this misperception. We found it relatively easy to provide subjects with a better understanding of the range-dependency of magnetic field strength. Moreover, the quality of this acquisition was apparently independent of the manner in which they were instructed. Such successful instruction is markedly different from the well-established difficulty of teaching people about many qualitative domains, such as physics or ideas in probability. Clearly, while some erroneous beliefs are highly resistant to change, others can be altered quite readily. We suspect that an important distinction between knowledge about the range-dependency of power-frequency magnetic fields and less tractable topics involves the presence or absence of prior folk-theories or “mental models” of the domain.

Notes: In the spring of 1993, about 39% of Milwaukee-area residents suffered through a nationally publicized illness brought about by cryptosporidium, a parasite that had infested the metropolitan drinking water supply. Our study, based on a telephone survey of 610 local adult residents, indicates that worry about becoming ill in the future with cryptosporidiosis relates more strongly and consistently to public reliance on, and use of, media for cryptosporidium information than do a range of risk perception and experience variables. We propose that more studies should take an audience-centered approach to understanding risk communication.

Notes: This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.

Notes: Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of “technological stigma” that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.

Notes: This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mgkg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mgkg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mgkg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mgkg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mgkg.

Notes: Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from “stakeholders” based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.

Notes: In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-”1.8 X

Notes: This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.

Notes: Real-world exposure measurements are a necessary ingredient for subsequent detailed study of the risks from an environmental pollutant. For volatile organic compounds, researchers are applying exhaled breath analysis and the time dependence of concentrations as a noninvasive indicator of exposure, dose, and blood levels. To optimize the acquisition of such data, samples must be collected in a time frame suited to the needs of the mathematical model, within physical limitations of the equipment and subjects, and within logistical constraints. Additionally, one must consider the impact of measurement error on the eventual extraction of biologically and physiologically relevant parameters. Given a particular mathematical model for the elimination kinetics (in this case a very simple pharmacokinetic model based upon a multitenn exponential decay function that has been shown to fit real-world data extremely well), we investigated the effects on synthetic data caused by sample timing, random measurement error, and number of terms included in the model. This information generated a series of conditions for collecting samples and performing analyses dependent upon the eventual informational needs, and it provided an estimate of error associated with various choices and compromises. Though the work was geared specifically toward breath sampling, it is equally applicable to direct blood measurements in optimizing sampling strategy and improving the exposure assessment process.

Notes: Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

Notes: This paper investigates electrical overheating events aboard a habitable spacecraft. The wire insulation involved in these failures plays a major role in the entire event scenario from threat development to detection and damage assessment. Ideally, if models of wire overheating events in microgravity existed, the various wire insulations under consideration could be quantitatively compared. However, these models do not exist. In this paper, a methodology is developed that can be used to select a wire insulation that is best suited for use in a habitable spacecraft. The results of this study show that, based upon the Analytic Hierarchy Process and simplifying assumptions, the criteria selected, and data used in the analysis, Tefzel is better than Teflon for use in a habitable spacecraft.

Notes: Human exposure assessments require a linkage between toxicant concentrations in occupied spaces and the receptor's mobility pattern. Databases reporting distinct populations' mobility in various parts of the home, time outside the home, and time in another building are scarce. Temporal longitudinal trends in these mobility patterns for specific age and gender groups are nonexistent. This paper describes subgroup trends in the spatial and temporal mobility patterns within the home, outside the home, and in another building for 619 Iowa females that occupied the same home for at least 20 years. The study found that the mean time spent at home for the participants ranged from a low of 69.4% for the 50-59 year age group to a high of 81.6% for the over 80-year-old age group. Participants who lived in either one- or two- story homes with basements spent the majority of their residential occupancy on the first story. Trends across age varied for other subgroups by number of children, education, and urbadrural status. Since all of these trends were nonlinear, they indicate that error exists when assuming a constant, such as a 75% home occupancy factor, which has been advocated by some researchers and agencies. In addition, while aggregate data, such as presented in this report, are more helpll in deriving risk estimates for population subgroups, they cannot supplant good individual-level data for determining risks.

Notes: The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the “analysis”) in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.

Notes: Comprehensive uncertainty analyses of complex models of environmental and biological systems are essential but often not feasible due to the computational resources they require. “Traditional” methods, such as standard Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling, for propagating uncertainty and developing probability densities of model outputs, may in fact require performing a prohibitive number of model simulations. An alternative is offered, for a wide range of problems, by the computationally efficient “Stochastic Response Surface Methods (SRSMs)” for uncertainty propagation. These methods extend the classical response surface methodology to systems with stochastic inputs and outputs. This is accomplished by approximating both inputs and outputs of the uncertain system through stochastic series of “well behaved” standard random variables; the series expansions of the outputs contain unknown coefficients which are calculated by a method that uses the results of a limited number of model simulations. Two case studies are presented here involving (a) a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for perchloroethylene (PERC) for humans, and (b) an atmospheric photochemical model, the Reactive Plume Model (RPM-IV). The results obtained agree closely with those of traditional Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling methods, while significantly reducing the required number of model simulations.

Notes: This study explores the use of multiple isotopic tracers to evaluate the processes involved in nitrate attenuation in ground water. δ15N and δ18O are used to provide information about the role of denitrification on nitrate attenuation, and δ34S, δ18O, and δ13C are used to evaluate the role of reduced sulfur and carbon as electron donors for nitrate reduction. The focus of this study is a zone of significant NO3−1 attenuation occurring in a sand aquifer impacted by septic system contamination. The NO3−1 pattern, the ground water flow system, and changes in other chemical parameters suggest that the NO3−1 depletion is caused by denitrification. This is supported by the nitrate δ15N and δ18O data which both show significant isotopic enrichment as NO3−1 depletion proceeds along the flow path. The increase of sulfate and dissolved inorganic carbon observed in the zone of nitrate attenuation suggests that reduced sulfur in addition to carbon is also involved in denitrification. This is supported by a trend toward depleted sulfate δ34S and δ18O values in the zone of sulfate increase, which reflects the input of sulfate formed by the oxidation of biogenic pyrite present in the aquifer sediments. The trend toward depleted δ13 values in the zone of increasing dissolved inorganic carbon reflects the input of organic carbon into this carbon pool. Chemical mass balance indicates that carbon is the dominant electron donor; however, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of using multiple isotopic tracers for providing insight into the processes affecting nitrate attenuation in ground water.

Notes: The objective of this study is to assess the effects of variable density ground water flow on capture zones for pumping wells on islands and the ability of numerical and analytical methods to account for these effects. Mathematical modeling is used to simulate variable density ground water flow for an island aquifer system. Coupled fresh water-salt water transport equations derived using sharp interface theory are solved using the finite-element method. Reverse particle tracking is used to compute the capture zone for a well. Sensitivity studies are completed using a quasi-three-dimensional model to identify the influence of variable density flow on the computed zone of contribution to a pumping well. Quantitative results indicate that the size and shape of the capture zone are sensitive to the natural geometry of the fresh water lens and the effects of fresh water-salt water upconing. This is especially true for pumping wells located close to the coastline. For the conditions considered in this study, accounting for variable density ground water flow resulted in capture zones approximately 21% larger than those predicted assuming a uniform fresh water aquifer thickness and constant hydraulic gradient. This effect of variable density flow on the predicted capture zones diminished away from the coastline. The study results serve to caution model users of the limitations inherent in using analytical methods to compute capture zone delineations for island aquifers.

Notes: In suitable cases, digital filtering of self-potential anomalies produces images of the water table. Two hypothetical cases and four field examples from New Hampshire yield images in reasonable agreement with known water tables. Filtering for a sheet of dipolar sources (that is, the water table) would be a useful addition to routine interpretation of self-potential data.

Notes: Xylene was spilled onto moist glass beads or various moist sands and water was trickled onto the columns every eight hours for periods up to 10 days. The xylene residual in the columns with water infiltration decreased compared to those of control columns, indicating a downward displacement of xylene. The extent of displacement increased with increasing size of the porous media and with increasing amounts of water infiltration.

Notes: As a well is pumped through time, concentrations of specific constituents in the water discharging from the well may change as a result of their transport within the well and the aquifer. A series of experiments conducted at a research site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, examined the effects of transport on the chemistry of water samples obtained from a long-screened well. Analyses of time series of constituent concentrations in water pumped from the long-screened well showed persistent temporal trends during the first experiment. Iron concentrations decreased over a five-hour test (15 casing volumes), whereas the calcium and magnesium concentrations increased. In contrast, the time series of constituent concentrations of water discharging from the same well showed less change with time during a later experiment. Numerical simulations were undertaken to test the relative importance of several possible factors affecting the temporal variations of these constituents. During the process of quantitatively explaining the changes in concentrations over time observed in the two experiments, different system conceptualizations were used, including (1) flow and transport in the aquifer without wellbore transport, (2) flow and transport in the aquifer with advective flow and transport in the wellbore, and (3) flow and transport in the aquifer with advective flow and transport in the wellbore and a thin layer (skin) of water surrounding the well with constituent concentrations that had been altered by the presence of the well. The conjectured skin of wellbore water, which could have invaded the aquifer because of nearby sampling or dispersion and diffusion near the wellbore, in conjunction with flow and transport in the aquifer and advective transport within the wellbore, produced a reasonable match between the simulated and observed concentrations. The data analysis confirms the known fact that long-screened wells provide mechanisms for the redistribution of chemical constituents in the aquifer. The analysis provides new insight into the mechanisms responsible for the observed changes in concentrations during the sampling of long-screened wells. The analysis quantifies the effects of the various conceptual models of flow and transport in and around wells on the interpretation and meaning of chemical analyses of water withdrawn from long-screened wells.

Notes: The migration of a DNAPL (TCA) was demonstrated by a laboratory flow visualization experiment. The system consists of two unconfined aquifers separated by a siltstone perching layer containing a single fracture that conducts water flow downward. The TCA migrated along a tortuous path in the upper sandy aquifer and moved rapidly through the fracture. We observed no DNAPL pooling above the fracture prior to its entry into the fracture, in contrast to existing mathematical solutions of hydrostatic initial conditions and full saturation below the fracture. A multiphase flow model predicted the experimentally observed mean behavior.

Notes: The concentrations of tritium, helium isotopes, and neon have been measured in ground water from a fractured bedrock aquifer in a densely populated suburban area near New York City. Samples were obtained from heavily pumped production wells of a regional water supply company. Helium and neon concentrations exceed the values for air-saturated water, which is explained by the addition of unfractionated atmospheric air, radiogenic helium, and tritiogenic 3He. The identification of the composition of these excess components allows reliable separation of the tritiogenic 3He concentration, and hence the calculation of the 3H/3He ages of the ground water. Comparison of the combined tritium plus tritiogenic 3He concentrations with the historical record of tritium input from precipitation confirms that the 3H/3He data are self-consistent and provides constraints on the degree of mixing or helium loss. The distribution of 3H/3He ages is related to the large-scale topography of the study area and the depth of the wells. Furthermore, correlations between the 3H/3He ages and concentrations of total dissolved solids and total CO2 show that the ages contain meaningful information related to the temporal changes of the ground water chemistry.

Notes: Nitrogen isotope ratios of soil water and ground water nitrate have been used to identify or implicate sources; however, lack of data on δ15N in thick (〉12 m) vadose zones beneath the source and potential effects of denitrification on δ15N signatures have raised questions about the meaning of δ15N values measured in ground water. In this study, nitrogen isotope ratios (δ15N) were measured on nitrate extracted from 218 core samples removed from the surface to the water table below natural (soil organic matter) fertilizer, onsite sewage disposal systems (septic tank effluent), and animal sources located in Salinas and Sacramento Valleys, California. Additionally, spatial variability of δ15N in the horizontal plane was measured beneath an agricultural field, and δ15N values of native geologic materials (organic-rich shales) were determined. In general, δ15N values throughout the vadose zone were consistent with the literature and remained fairly constant with depth, indicating little denitrification during transport. The δ15N values from soil organic matter sources varied from about 0 to +4‰, and the mean was not significantly different from that of fertilizer sources. The δ15N values of animal sources varied from about +8 to +20‰ and were dependent on site and animal source. The δ15N of onsite sewage disposal sources varied from about +2 to +12‰, and the mean was significantly different from that of animal sources at a 90% confidence level. δ15N of organic-rich shales of the Panoche and Moreno Formations (Cretaceous; San Joaquin Valley) and soils derived from these rocks were generally between +4 and +8‰. Thus, it may be difficult to distinguish a geologic-N source from septic tank or commercial fertilizer sources using δ15N. Little spatial variation was found in δ15N beneath the agricultural field in the horizontal plane.

Notes: In this study, we investigate the degree to which climate-induced changes in hydraulic head can affect the stress regime and hydraulic conductivity of fractured aquifers. The effects of stress changes on conductivity are well-known, but not usually considered in the analysis of ground water systems because of the misconception that the head change necessary to make a measurable impact is beyond the range of normal head fluctuations.An empirical model relating changes in hydraulic conductivity of fractured aquifers to vertical-effective stress was used in analyzing the effects of pore pressure changes on conductivity. An analysis showed that for realistic head changes (20 to 100 m), conductivity in an unconfined system can change as much as 20 to 30%. The analysis also showed that for a given head increase, increases in conductivity are greatest at shallow depths and that conductivity is a function of both hydraulic head and the relative position of head to the land surface. Maximum conductivity changes occur when the initial pore pressure is a relatively large percentage of the total stress. Similar results were also obtained in confined systems.Field examples demonstrate that large head changes have occurred in bedrock aquifers due to climatic changes and pumping withdrawals. Thus, large head changes needed to make a measurable impact on hydraulic conductivity are quite plausible. Conductivity changes can in turn lead to changes in calculated ground water flow and solute transport rates. As a result, when significant head changes are expected, changes in conductivity should be considered in the analysis of fractured aquifer systems.

Notes: The in situ measurement of water flow and chemical transport through clay pan soils is crucial to understanding potential water contamination from agricultural sources. It is important due to the large areal extent of these soils in agricultural regions of the midwestern United States and because of preferential flow paths caused by desiccation cracks, worms burrowing, and root development. A study plot at the Missouri Management Systems Evaluation Area near Centralia, Missouri, was instrumented to determine the rate of preferential flow of water and transport of NO3−1 fertilizer in the unsaturated zone through a claypan soil using 15N-NO3−1 and Br-1 tracers. The areal distribution of preferential flow paths was between 2 and 20% in the topsoil. Gravity lysimeter flow caused by preferential flow through the claypan was as much as 150 times greater than the estimated average rate of vertical recharge. As much as 2.4% of the volume of the soil below the clay pan may be occupied by preferential flow paths.The 15N-NO3−1 concentrations in ground water indicate that substantial quantities of fertilizer-derived NO3−1 were transported to ground water through the claypan during the first recharge event following fertilizer application even though that event occurred six months after application. Hydraulic conductivity, measured at three scales, ranged from 6.2 × 10−8 to 7.5 × 10−3 cm/s. The observed increase of calculated hydraulic conductivity with each increase in scale was attributed to the inclusion of more and larger preferential flow paths within the volume over which the measurement was made, indicating hydraulic conductivity measured at one scale may not describe flow and transport at another scale.

Notes: A dipole probe (DP) for measuring vertical variations of hydraulic conductivity has been designed, constructed, and tested in field conditions. The variable-length device designed for the dipole flow test (DFT) consists of three packers separated by changeable spacer rods. The assembled DP is lowered into a well with a long screened interval. The packers are inflated, isolating two screened sections (chambers) between them. A small submersible pump, mounted on the central packer, transfers water from the upper (extraction) chamber into the lower (injection) chamber. This simultaneous injection and extraction creates a recirculatory flow within the aquifer. The chamber head responses are measured by two pressure transducers in the DP chambers. The DP can be used at discrete intervals along the entire well screen length. The DP has been successfully tested in a specially constructed well with a continuous screen in a highly conductive sand and gravel aquifer. During drilling, disturbed samples were collected using the split spoon method and the vertical profile of K was estimated from grain-size analysis. A total of 153 DFTs were performed with various DP geometries. Results indicate that the chamber head changes are sensitive to aquifer properties, reach steady state rapidly, vary linearly with redrculation pumping rate, and can be controlled by changes in DP dimensions. Vertical profiles of K compare well with grain-size analysis estimates.

Notes: An extensive drilling and testing program was undertaken at Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada, to characterize the aquifer for the design of an aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) system. The substantial data base provides an excellent record of well yields and hydraulic responses to a series of aquifer tests in a faulted carbonate aquifer. Well yield variability is reflected in the wide range in specific capacity (1.4 to 75.8 L/s/m) and is dependent upon the proximity of a well to a major fault. Constant discharge data, available for nine pumping wells and several observation wells, reflect both the excellent hydraulic connection along major faults and the limited hydraulic connection between fault blocks. Three different flow models, including vertical fracture and vertical dyke (linear), and Theis (radial), are used to interpret constant discharge test data from nine pumping wells and several observation wells. In all tests, the duration of pumping is sufficient to identify early-time linear flow along faults and late-time pseudo-radial flow between fault blocks. This paper demonstrates the influence of fault-induced heterogeneity on the hydraulic response of a carbonate aquifer and demonstrates the application and limitation of simple radial continuum models to aquifers of this type.

Notes: This paper develops a geoelectrical and geostatistical-based methodology that can be used to screen unregulated landfills for the presence of leachate and obtain an approximation of the vertical/spatial extent of waste. The methodology uses a surface electromagnetic (EM) survey combined with indicator kriging. Indicator kriging allows for the use of EM data that have been collected over highly electrically conductive material such as that occurring within landfills. Indicator kriging maps were generated for several vertical sections cut through a landfill to establish the landfill strata. Similarly, horizontal sections were generated to evaluate the areal extent of waste and leachate in the vadose zone and saturated zones, respectively. The horizontal and vertical maps were combined to estimate the volume of solid waste and liquid within three zones: (1) waste, (2) waste and/or leachate, and (3) potential leachate. The methodology appears hold promise in providing results that can be used as part of a hazard assessment, or to assist in the placement of monitoring wells at sites requiring additional study. A case study is used to demonstrate the methodology at an unregulated landfill in eastern Nebraska.

Notes: The results of field tracer experiments performed in the Lindau fractured rock test site (southern Black Forest, Germany) and subsequent modeling are presented. A vertical, hydrothermally mineralized fault zone, with a permeability much greater than the surrounding granite mass, lies beneath a planned dam site. A dense network of boreholes and tunnels were used to investigate scaling effects of solute transport processes in fractured rock. A series of tracer experiments using deuterium and dye tracers (uranine, eosine, and pyranine) were performed over varying distances and under different testing procedures, resulting in different flow field conditions. Large-scale tracer experiments (21 to 346 m) were performed under natural flow field conditions, while small-scale tracer experiments (11 to 16 m) were performed under artificially induced radial-convergent and injection-withdrawal flow fields. The tracer concentration curves observed in all experiments were strongly influenced by the matrix diffusion. The curves were evaluated with the one-dimensional single fissure dispersion model (SFDM) (advective-dispersive transport in the fractures coupled with diffusive transport in the adjacent rock matrix) adjusted for the different flow field conditions. The fitting model parameters found determined the fracture aperture, and matrix and fissure porosities. The determined fracture aperture varied between the sections having different hydraulic conductivities (100 to 270 um and 430 to 580 um, respectively). The determined values of matrix porosity (3 to 7%) seemed to be independent of the scale of the experiment. The modeled matrix porosities agreed well with values determined in independent laboratory investigations of drill cores using mercury porosimetry. In situ fissure porosity, determined only in small-scale experiments, was independent of the applied geometry of the artificially induced flow fields. The dispersivities were found to be independent of the scale of experiment but dependent on the flow conditions. The values found in forced gradient tests lie between 0.2 and 0.3 m, while values in experiments performed under natural flow conditions were one order of magnitude higher.

Notes: Federal efforts to establish reliable natural disinfection criteria for ground water supplies require the identification of appropriate indicator viruses to represent pathogenic viruses and an understanding of parameters affecting virus survival and transport in a variety of hydrogeologic settings. A high school septic system and the associated fecal waste-impacted unconfined sand and gravel aquifer were instrumented to: (1) evaluate if the concentrations of enterovirus and coliphage in this system were sufficient to allow their use as indicator viruses; (2) establish viral transport rates, transport distances, and concentrations in a highly conductive cold water aquifer. Enteroviruses were found in only two of eight assays of the septic tank effluent (0.26 and 4.4 virus/L) and were below detection in eight ground water samples. Male-specific and somatic coliphage were detectable in both the septic tank effluent (averaging 674,000 and 466,000 coliphage/L, respectively) and in the impacted underlying ground water, decreasing to detection limits beyond 38 m of the drainfield. Virus transport parameters in this aquifer were measured by seeding high numbers of MS2 and ØX174 coliphage into the ground water and documenting their transport over 17.4 m. A portion of the seeded virus traveled at least as fast as the bromide tracer (1 to 2.9 m/d). Proposed natural disinfection criteria would not be met in this aquifer using standard 30.5 m setback distances. In addition, the virus sorption processes and long survival times resulted in presence of viable seed virus for more than nine months.

Notes: In the glacial topography of southwestern Michigan, the water table does not always conform exactly to the land surface and flow-through wetlands, those with both ground water recharge and discharge, are common. The W-l wetland in Cass County, Michigan, a flow-through system, shows a distinct contrast between upgradient and downgradient ground water quality. Ground water discharging into the wetland is oxic, has up to 40 mg/L NO3-N derived from fertilizer and hog manure application to corn fields, and has major ion concentrations typical of the shallow unconfined aquifer in the area. In contrast, shallow ground water that originates as recharge from the wetland forms a plume extending downgradient that can be identified by isotopic enrichment in 18O and deuterium resulting from evaporation in the wetland prior to recharge and by distinct chemical characteristics similar to the wetland surface water (low conductivity and alkalinity, low concentrations of sulfate, nitrate and dissolved oxygen and high concentrations of ammonia, and DOC). As the wetland surface water infiltrates into the unconfined aquifer, conductivity and alkalinity increase due to carbonate mineral dissolution and iron concentrations increase as ferric iron in the aquifer solids serves as an electron acceptor in microbially mediated reactions. The other chemical characteristics, including the lack of nitrate, persist in the flow system for significant distances downgradient from the wetland.The chemical and isotopic composition of shallow ground water around wetlands can be used to spatially delineate areas of ground-water discharge to the wetland and ground water recharge from the wetland, thereby providing a supplemental method to the use of sometimes inconclusive hydraulic head data in the determination of wetland recharge-discharge function. In this study, the chemical and isotopic data confirm that the water table does not replicate surface topography around closed depressions in the landscape.

Notes: The steady-state ground water age distribution in the Rabis Creek Aquifer in Denmark is simulated directly and compared to the age estimated from observed tritium concentrations at three wells. The simulation code is based on an existing solute transport code, modified to include a zero-order rate term of unity to account for the aging of ground water by one day per one day elapsed. The directly simulated ages of the observed tritium peaks agree to within less than four years with the observations. The tritium peaks would have been located to within 2 m vertically if the directly simulated ages had been used to select sampling depths in the three wells. An analytical solution that assumes that the geology is uniform and rectangular is shown to be a useful tool as a firsthand estimate of the age distribution. However, ages from a numerical direct age simulation that account for nonuniform aquifer properties agree better with the observed ages.

Notes: A ground water basin is defined as the volume of subsurface through which ground water flows from the water table to a specified discharge location. Delineating the topographically defined surface water basin and extending it vertically downward does not always define the ground water basin. Instead, a ground water basin is more appropriately delineated by tracking ground water flowpaths with a calibrated, three-dimensional ground water flow model. To determine hydrologic and chemical budgets of the basin, it is also necessary to quantify flow through each hydrogeologic unit in the basin. In particular, partitioning ground water flow through unconsolidated deposits versus bedrock is of significant interest to hillslope hydrologic studies. To address these issues, a model is developed and calibrated to simulate ground water flow through glacial deposits and fractured crystalline bedrock in the vicinity of Mirror Lake, New Hampshire. Tracking of ground water flowpaths suggests that Mirror Lake and its inlet streams drain a ground water recharge area that is about 1.5 times the area of the surface water basin. Calculation of the ground water budget suggests that, of the recharge that enters the Mirror Lake ground water basin, about 40% travels through the basin along flowpaths that stay exclusively in the glacial deposits, and about 60% travels along flowpaths that involve movement in bedrock.

Notes: A method to evaluate first-order and zero-order in situ reaction rates from a push-pull test is presented. A single-well push-pull test starts with the rapid injection of a well-mixed slug containing a known quantity of a conservative tracer and a reactive solute into the saturated zone. The slug is then periodically extracted and sampled from the same well. For zero- or first-order reactions, in the absence of sorption and assuming negligible background concentrations, these measurements can be used to evaluate reaction rate coefficients directly. The method does not involve computer-based solute transport models and requires no knowledge of regional ground water flow or hydraulic parameters. The method performs well when the dominate processes are advection, dispersion, and zero- or first-order irreversible reactions. Regional flow velocities must be sufficiently low such that the slug stays within the area of the well during the sampling phase. In the case of zero-order reactions, results using the method proposed here are compared with those obtained through the traditional method of calibrating a computer-based transport model. The two methods give similar estimates of the reaction rate coefficient. The method is general enough to work with a broad range of push-pull experiment designs and sampling techniques.

Notes: The Regional Municipality of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada (population 250,000) depends on ground water for most of its water supply. The ground water is extracted from the Waterloo Moraine, an extensive and complex glacial aquifer system extending over a 400 km2 area. A methodology is being developed to inventory the ground water resource, to define its susceptibility to contamination, and to create the basis for optimal management and protection strategies. A key component of this methodology is a three-dimensional conceptual hydrogeologic model based on the geologic characteristics of the multiple-aquifer Moraine system. The steps in the development of the model include screening of the large database, interpretation and interpolation of the data to define the variable hydrostatigraphy and to generate consistent hydraulic conductivity functions, and model calibration. The numerical basis is a fully three-dimensional finite element model that provides flexibility and adaptability in representing the natural boundaries, the highly irregular stratigraphy, and the numerous wellfields. The model has the capability to automatically find the location of the water table consistent with given recharge and pumping conditions, and to direct recharge from low-permeability areas to higher-permeability areas. Capture zones generated by the model are found to be highly sensitive with respect to the geologic structure, in particular the presence or absence of windows in the aquitard units. Professional judgment is found to be an essential component of the modeling process.

Notes: Aquifer storage recovery (ASR) was tested in the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo Aquifer near Charleston, South Carolina, to assess the feasibility for subsurface storage of treated drinking water. Water quality data obtained during two representative ASR tests were interpreted to show three things: (1) recovery efficiency of ASR in this geological setting; (2) possible changes in physical characteristics of the aquifer during ASR testing; and (3) water quality changes and potability of recovered water during short (one- and six-day) storage durations in the predominantly carbonate aquifer.Recovery efficiency for both ASR tests reported here was 54%. Successive ASR tests increased aquifer permeability of the Santee Limestone/Black Mingo Aquifer. It is likely that aquifer permeability increased during short storage periods due to dissolution of carbonate minerals and amorphous silica in aquifer material by treated drinking water. Dissolution resulted in an estimated 0.3% increase in pore volume of the permeable zones. Ground water composition generally evolved from a sodium-calcium bicarbonate water to a sodium chloride water during storage and recovery. After short duration, stored water can exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level (MCL) for chloride (250 mg/L). However, sulfate, fluoride, and tri-halomethane concentrations remained below MCLs during storage and recovery.

Notes: A new methodology was developed for the in situ investigation of flow and transport processes through undisturbed, discrete fractures in the vadose zone. The experimental setup and technical means were designed for a scale of several meters, larger than any conceivable laboratory experiment. The setup consists of four components: (1) a 25 cm diameter horizontal borehole is core-drilled along a vertical, discrete fracture plane, exposing the fracture at the borehole ceiling; (2) compartmental ponds are installed along the traced fracture on the horizontal part of the outcrop. Each compartment (25 cm long) is connected to a separate feeding source, which can be tagged by a different tracer, and the water head is electronically controlled. Thus, each segment of the exposed fracture could be subjected to a different flux with a specific tracer under a constant hydraulic head; (3) a compartmental sampler, divided into 20 cm long cells, is installed beneath the compartmental ponds in the horizontal borehole. The effluent draining from a particular fracture segment is collected by individual cells of the sampler; (4) the percolating fluids accumulating in the various sampler cells are frequently drained by a collection system into individual sampling vessels.This experimental setup was field-tested with untagged water in preliminary experiments in fractured chalk. It can provide unique and important information about flowpath distributions along a natural fracture, and about the chemical evolution of the solutions percolating through the fractures.

Notes: The use of surface-active tracers for measuring the interfacial area between no aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) and water was evaluated in a hydraulically isolated test cell installed in a surficial aquifer located at Hill Air Force Base (AFB), Utah. Interfacial tracers were developed at the University of Florida for quantifying immiscible fluid-fluid interfaces (air-water or NAPL-water) in porous media. Sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate (SDBS) was used as the interfacial tracer to measure the effective NAPL-water interfacial area (aNw), while 2,2-dimethyl-3-pentanol (DMP) was used as the partitioning tracer to estimate the NAPL saturation (SN). The observed retardation of SDBS and DMP when compared to a nonreactive tracer (bromide or methanol) at eight multilevel sampling locations and one extraction well, was used to quantify the aNw and SN values averaged over the interval between the injection wells and each monitoring point. The NAPL morphology index, defined here as HN= aNw/φSN (φ= porosity), varied significantly within the test cell. In locations where the magnitude of HN was large, the NAPL was assumed to be more or less uniformly spread, providing good contact with the mobile fluid. In contrast, regions with low HN values were assumed to have NAPL that was more heterogeneously distributed as isolated patches providing poor contact with the mobile fluid. The index HN, provided by the combined use of interfacial and partitioning tracers, has important implications for NAPL source region remediation employing in situ flushing technologies.

Notes: Nonlinear regression was introduced to ground water modeling in the 1970s, but has been used very little to calibrate numerical models of complicated ground water systems. Apparently, nonlinear regression is thought by many to be incapable of addressing such complex problems. With what we believe to be the most complicated synthetic test case used for such a study, this work investigates using nonlinear regression in ground water model calibration. Results of the study fall into two categories. First, the study demonstrates how systematic use of a well designed nonlinear regression method can indicate the importance of different types of data and can lead to successive improvement of models and their parameterizations. Our method differs from previous methods presented in the ground water literature in that (1) weighting is more closely related to expected data errors than is usually the case; (2) defined diagnostic statistics allow for more effective evaluation of the available data, the model, and their interaction; and (3) prior information is used more cautiously. Second, our results challenge some commonly held beliefs about model calibration. For the test case considered, we show that (1) field measured values of hydraulic conductivity are not as directly applicable to models as their use in some geostatistical methods imply; (2) a unique model does not necessarily need to be identified to obtain accurate predictions; and (3) in the absence of obvious model bias, model error was normally distributed. The complexity of the test case involved implies that the methods used and conclusions drawn are likely to be powerful in practice.

Notes: Lack of storativity and transmissivity data from pumping tests in the multilayered, karstified aquifer system discharging into the Sea of Galilee resulted in the use of other techniques for parameter estimation. Water level fluctuations were used to calculate specific-storage values, which ranged from 1.6 × 10−6 to 6.8 × 10−7 m−1 and from 4 × 10−6 to 2.7 × 10−7 m−1 in the lower and upper aquifer, respectively. Depletion curves were used to calculate transmissivity, which ranged from 0.3 to 24 m2/d and from 1 to 89 m2/d in the lower and upper aquifer, respectively. Age indicators were used to calculate hydraulic conductivity values: those obtained using radiocarbon data (0.54 to 7.5 m/d and 0.4 to 4 m/d for the upper and lower aquifer, respectively) were one order of magnitude higher than those obtained by depletion curve interpretation (10−3 - 0.45 m/d), reflecting either the prevailing lower porosity (0.01) typical of the aquifers, or the impact of regional- vs. local-scale measurements. The higher values obtained using radiocarbon were still a sixth of that calculated from a single pumping test in the area (40 m/d). The pumping test, however, is suggested to provide values which are too high because of leakage from adjacent formations during the test. The alternative techniques for parameter estimation presented here are recommended when pumping test data are lacking (while discharge and water level data do exist), or when regional rather than point transmissivity values are required.

Notes: Wetlands cannot exist without water, but wetland hydrology is difficult to characterize. As a result, compensatory wetland mitigation often only assumes the proper hydrology has been created. In this study, water sources and mass transfer processes in a natural and constructed wetland complex were investigated using isotopes of water and strontium. Water isotope profiles in the saturated zone revealed that the natural wetland and one site in the constructed wetland were primarily fed by ground water; profiles in another constructed wetland site showed recent rain was the predominant source of water in the root zone. Water isotopes in the capillary fringe indicated that the residence time for rain is less in the natural wetland than in the constructed wetland, thus transpiration (an important water sink) was greater in the natural wetland. Strontium isotopes showed a systematic difference between the natural and constructed wetlands that we attribute to the presence or absence of peat. In the peat-rich natural wetland, δ87Sr in the pore water increased along the flowline due to preferential weathering of minerals containing radiogenic Sr in response to elevated Fe concentrations in the water. In the constructed wetland, where peat thickness was thin and Fe concentrations in water were negligible, δ87Sr did not increase along the flowline. The source of the peat (on-site or off-site derived) applied in the constructed wetland controlled the δ87Sr at the top of the profile, but the effects were restricted by strong cation exchange in the underlying fluvial sediments. Based on the results of this study, neither constructed wetland site duplicated the water source and weathering environment of the adjoining natural wetland. Moreover, stable isotopes were shown to be effective tools for investigating wetlands and gaining insight not easily obtained using non-isotopic techniques. These tools have potential widespread application to wetlands that have distinct isotopic endmember sources.

Notes: The performance of parametric models used to describe soil water retention (SWR) properties and predict unsaturated hydraulic conductivity (K) as a function of volumetric water content (θ) is examined using SWR and K(θ) data for coarse sand and gravel sediments. Six 70 cm long, 10 cm diameter cores of glacial outwash were instrumented at eight depths with porous cup ten-siometers and time domain reflectometry probes to measure soil water pressure head (h) and θ, respectively, for seven unsaturated and one saturated steady-state flow conditions. Forty-two θ(h) and K(θ) relationships were measured from the infiltration tests on the cores. Of the four SWR models compared in the analysis, the van Genuchten (1980) equation with parameters m and n restricted according to the Mualem (m = 1 - 1/n) criterion is best suited to describe the θ(h) relationships. The accuracy of two models that predict K(θ) using parameter values derived from the SWR models was also evaluated. The model developed by van Genuchten (1980) based on the theoretical expression of Mualem (1976) predicted K(θ) more accurately than the van Genuchten (1980) model based on the theory of Burdine (1953). A sensitivity analysis shows that more accurate predictions of K(θ) are achieved using SWR model parameters derived with residual water content (θr) specified according to independent measurements of θ at values of h where θ/h ∼ 0 rather than model-fit θr values. The accuracy of the model K(θ) function improves markedly when at least one value of unsaturated K is used to scale the K(θ) function predicted using the saturated K. The results of this investigation indicate that the hydraulic properties of coarse-grained sediments can be accurately described using the parametric models. In addition, data collection efforts should focus on measuring at least one value of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and as complete a set of SWR data as possible, particularly in the dry range.

Notes: Management of the limited fresh water resources on small oceanic islands has become critical with increasing population and development in coastal areas. Canals, dredged for waterfront property and boat access, penetrate water-bearing material and accelerate the natural discharge from fresh water lenses. Big Pine Key, located in the southern portion of the Florida Keys, is a heterogeneous, two-layer island with several canal networks. The island is approximately 3 km wide and 10 km long. The upper hydros-tratigraphic unit (Miami Oolite Limestone) has a hydraulic conductivity of 100 meters per day (m/day). The lower unit (Key Largo Limestone) has a hydraulic conductivity of 1200 m/day.To quantify the effects of canals on the fresh water lens of Big Pine Key, a numerical model was developed using the Dupuit and Ghyben-Herzberg assumptions. The thickness of the fresh water lens is sensitive to the location of the boundary between the upper and lower hydros-tratigraphic layers. A simulation of present-day Big Pine Key, including canals, compared with predevel-opment conditions shows that the total volume of the lens has decreased by 20% in response to the dredging of canals. As dredging of canals will certainly continue in the future, the numerical model was also used to investigate the types of canals that are most detrimental to a fresh water lens. For an island 3 km wide and 10 km long, a canal that penetrates 2 km lengthwise into the island reduces the volume of the fresh water lens by 6.5%. For the same island dimensions, a canal that penetrates 2 km through the mid-section of the island reduces the volume of the fresh water lens by 7.1 %. Several short canals, with a combined total length of 2 km decrease the volume of the fresh water lens by 4.0 %. The deeper the penetration of the canal into the lens, the greater the influence of the canal. Therefore, several short canals are preferred over one long canal because shorter canals have less of an effect on the total volume of the fresh water lens. Canals also focus ground water discharge. The three configurations of 2000 m long canals each discharge 13 to 15% of the total recharge to the island.