ALBERT

Notes: Andalusite porphyroblasts are totally pseudomorphosed by margarite–paragonite aggregates in aluminous pelites containing the peak mineral assemblage andalusite, chlorite, chloritoid, margarite, paragonite, quartz ± garnet, in a NW Iberia contact area. Equilibria at low P–T are investigated using new KFMASH and (mainly) MnCNKFMASH grids constructed with Thermocalc 3.21. P–T and T–X pseudosections with phase modal volume isopleths are constructed for compositions relatively richer and poorer in andalusite to model the assemblages in an andalusite-bearing rock that contains a thin andalusite-rich band (ARB) during retrogression. Their compositions, prior to retrogression, are used in the modelling, and have been retrieved by restoring the pseudomorph-forming elements into the current-depleted matrix, except for Al2O3 which is assumed to be immobile. Compositional differences between the thin band and the rest of the rock have not resulted in differences in andalusite porphyroblast retrogression. The absence of chloritoid resorbtion implies either a pressure increase at constant reacting-system composition, or that its composition changed during retrogression at constant pressure, by becoming enriched in the progressively replaced andalusite porphyroblasts. T–X pseudosections at 1 kbar model this latter process using as end-members in X, first, the restored original rock and ARB compositions, and, then the same process, taking into account the change in composition of both as retrogression proceeded. The MnNCKFMASH pseudosections of rocks with different Al contents facilitate making further deductions on the rock-composition control of the resulting assemblages upon retrogression. Andalusite eventually disappears in relatively Al-poor rocks, resulting, as in this study, in a rock formed by chloritoid–chlorite as the only FM minerals, plus margarite–paragonite pseudomorphs of andalusite. In rocks richer in Al, chlorite would progressively disappear and a kyanite/andalusite–chloritoid assemblage would eventually be stable at retrograde conditions. The Al-silicate, stable during retrogression in Al-rich rocks, indicates pressure conditions and hence the tectonic context under which retrogression took place.

Notes: In statistically optimised P–T estimation, the contributions to overall uncertainty from different sources are represented by ellipses. One source, for a diffusion-controlled reaction at non-equilibrium, is diffusion modelling of the reaction texture. This modelling is used to estimate ratios, Q, between free-energy differences, ΔG, of reactions among mineral end-members, to replace the equilibrium condition ΔG = 0. The associated uncertainty is compared with those already inherent in the equilibrium case (from end-member data, activity models and mineral compositions). A compact matrix formulation is introduced for activity coefficients, and their partial derivatives governing error propagation. The non-equilibrium example studied is a corona reaction with the assemblage Grt–Opx–Cpx–Pl–Qtz. Two garnet compositions are used, from opposite sides of the corona. In one of them, affected by post-reaction Fe, Mg exchange with pyroxene, the problem of reconstructing the original composition is overcome by direct use of ratios between chemical-potential differences, given by the diffusion modelling. The number of geothermobarometers in the optimisation is limited by near-degeneracies. Their weightings are affected by strong correlations among Q ratios. Uncertainty from diffusion modelling is not large in comparison with other sources. Overall precision is limited mainly by uncertainties in activity models. Hypothetical equilibrium P–T are also estimated for both garnet compositions. By this approach, departure from equilibrium can be measured, with statistical uncertainties. For the example, the result for difference from equilibrium pressure is 1.2 ± 0.7 kbar.

Notes: This paper characterizes the metamorphic thermal structure of the Higo Metamorphic Complex (HMC) and presents the results of a numerical simulation of a geotherm with melt migration and solidification. Reconstruction of the geological and metamorphic structure shows that the HMC initially had a simple thermal structure where metamorphic temperatures and pressures increased towards apparent lower structural levels. Subsequently, this initial thermal structure has been collapsed by E–W and NNE–SSW trending high-angle faults. Pressure and temperature conditions using the analysis of mineral assemblages and thermobarometry define a metamorphic field P–T array that may be divided into two segments: the array at apparent higher structural levels has a low-dP/dT slope, whereas that at apparent lower structural levels has a high-dP/dT slope. This composite array cannot be explained by heat conduction in subsolidus rocks alone. Migmatite is exposed pervasively at apparent lower structural levels, but large syn-metamorphic plutons are absent at the levels exposed in the HMC. Transport and solidification of melt within migmatite is a potential mechanism to generate the composite array. Thermal modelling of a geotherm with melt migration and solidification shows that the composite thermal structure may be formed by a change of the dominant heat transfer from an advective regime to a conduction regime with decreasing depth. The model also predicts that strata beneath the crossing point will consist of high-grade solid metamorphic rocks and solidified melt products, such as migmatite. This prediction is consistent with the observation that migmatite was associated with the very high-dP/dT slope. The melt migration model is able to generate the very high-dP/dT segment due to the high rate of heat transfer by advection.

Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.

Notes: This research explores public judgments about the threat-reducing potential of experts, individual behavior, and government spending. The data are responses of a national sample of 1225 to mail surveys that include measures of several dimensions of public judgments about violent crime, automobile accidents, hazardous chemical waste, air pollution, water pollution, global warming, AIDS, heart disease, and cancer. Beliefs about who can best mitigate threats are specific to classes of threats. In general, there is little faith that experts can do much about violent crime and automobile accidents, moderate faith in their ability to address problems of global warming, and greater expectations for expert solutions to the remaining threats. People judge individual behavior as effective in reducing the threats of violent crime, AIDS, heart disease, and automobile accidents but less so for the remaining threats. Faith in more government spending is highest for AIDS and the other two health items, lowest for the trio of violent crime, automobile accidents, and global warming, and moderate for the remaining threats. For most threats, people are not distributed at the extremes in judging mitigators. Strong attitudinal and demographic cleavages are also lacking, although some interesting relationships occur. This relative lack of sharp cleavages and the generally moderate opinion indicate ample opportunity for public education and risk communication.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.

Notes: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.

Notes: Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.

Notes: Using exploratory data analysis, probability plots, scatterplots, and computer animations to rotate and visualize the data, we fit a trivariate Normal distribution to data for the height, the natural logarithm of body weight, and the body fat for 646 men between the ages of 50 and 80 years as reported by the medical staff of the U.S. Veterans Administration's “Normative Aging Study” in Boston, MA. Although these data do not include any children, women, or young men, the measurements represent the best data that we could find through a 4-year search. We believe that these data are well measured and reliable for men in the specified age range and that these data reveal an interesting statistical pattern for use in probabilistic PBPK models.

Notes: Significant research work has been completed in the development of risk-based inservice inspection (ISI) and testing (IST) technology for nuclear power plant applications through the ASME Center For Research and Technology Development. This paper provides technology that has been developed for these engineering applications. The technology includes risk-based ranking methods, beginning with the use of plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), for the determination of risk-significant and less risk-significant components for inspection and the determination of similar populations for pumps and valves for inservice testing. Decision analysis methods are outlined for developing ISI and IST programs. This methodology integrates nondestructive examination data, structural reliability/risk assessment results, PRA results, failure data, and expert opinion to evaluate the effectiveness of ISI programs. Similarly, decision analysis uses the output of failure mode and causes analysis in combination with data, expert opinion, and PRA results to evaluate the effectiveness of IST programs. Results of pilot applications of these ASME methods to actual nuclear plant systems and components are summarized. The results of this work are already being used to develop recommended changes in ISI and IST requirements by the ASME Section XI and the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code organizations. A perspective on Code and regulatory adoption is also outlined. Finally, the potential benefits to the nuclear industry in terms of safety, person-rem exposure, and costs are summarized.

Notes: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.

Notes: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) is major metabolite of trichloroethylene (TRI) thought to contribute to its hepatocarcinogenic effects in mice. Recent studies have shown that peak blood concentrations of TCA in rats do not occur until approximately 12 hours following an oral dose of TRI. However, blood concentrations of TRI reach maximum within an hour and are nondetectable after 2 hours.(1) The results of study which examined the enterohepatic recirculation (EHC) of the principle TRI metabolited(2) was used to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for TRI, which includes enterohepatic recirculation of its metabolites. The model quantitatively predicts the uptake, distribution and elimination of TRI, trichloroethanol, trichloroethanol-glucuronide, and TCA and includes production of metabolites through the enterohepatic recirculation pathway. Physiologic parameters used in the model were obtained from the literature.(3.4) Parameters for TRI metabolism were taken from Fisher et al.(5) Other kinetic parameters were found in the literature or estimated from experimental data.(2) The model was calibrated to data from experiments of an earlier study where TRI was orally administered(2) Verification of the model was conducted using data on the enterohepatic recirculation of TCEOH and TCA(2) chloral hydrate data (infusion doses) from Merdink,(1) and TRI data from Templin(l) and Larson and Bull.(1)

Notes: Estimates were made of the numbers of liver carcinogens in 390 long-term bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP). These estimates were obtained from examination of the global pattern of p-values obtained from statistical tests applied to individual bioassays. Representative estimates of the number of liver carcinogens (90% confidence interval in parentheses) obtained in our analysis compared to NTP's determination are as follows: female rats—49 (23, 76), NTP = 30; male rats—88 (59, 116), NTP = 35; female mice—131 (105, 157), NTP = 81; male mice—100 (73, 126), NTP = 61; overall—166 (135, 197), NTP = 108. The estimator from which these estimates were obtained is biased low by an unknown amount. Consequently, this study provides persuasive evidence of the existence of more rodent liver carcinogens than were identified by the NTP.

Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.

Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.

Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.

Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.

Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Notes: Identifying the causes of accidents is a necessary prerequisite for preventive action. Some research suggests however that the analysis of accidents does not only differ between experts and laymen but that it is also linked to certain characteristics inherent in the analyst and in the social group to which he belongs: beliefs, value systems, norms, experiences in common, attitudes, roles, social and technical practices, etc. Culturally determined bias seems to affect the perception of risk and the causes of accidents. This article presents a certain number of thoughts and results based upon research carried out on causal attributions of traffic accidents in The Ivory Coast (West Africa) and discusses the importance of culture in risk-taking and accident prevention. It shows in particular that fatalistic beliefs and mystical practices influence the perception of accidents and consequently incite one to take more risks and neglect safety measures.

Notes: Since substantial bias can result from assigning some type of mean exposure to a group, risk assessments based on epidemiological data should avoid the grouping of data whenever possible. However, ungrouped data are frequently unavailable, and the question arises as to whether an arithmetic or geometric mean is the most appropriate summary measure of exposure. It is argued in this paper that one should use the type of mean for which the total risk that would result if every member of the population was exposed to the mean level is as close as possible to the actual total population risk. Using this criterion an arithmetic mean is always preferred over a geometric mean whenever the dose response is convex. In each of several data sets examined in this paper for which the dose response was not convex, an arithmetic mean was still preferred based on this criterion.

Notes: Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose (ED05) and the benchmark dose (BMD05) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED05 with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED05 for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED05 for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.

Notes: Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.

Notes: The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human-made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk-assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk-design procedures.

Notes: Importance measures have been useful in the process of extracting insights from risk analyses. Importance measures have also been suggested for use in component classification. However, there are difficulties of interpretation associated with component classification based on importance measures. This paper briefly reviews an alternative method, “Top Event Prevention Analysis,” and, based on a simple example, compares its key characteristics to those of conventional applications of importance measures. The methods are compared with respect to the task of formulating a safety case for a complex and potentially hazardous facility, in which component classification plays an important role. A key subtask is identification of a collection of design elements that is necessary and sufficient to achieve the desired level of protection of the public, the workers, and the environment. At the design stage, identifying this set helps to determine what elements to include in the final design. Separately, a similar selection process could be used in order to justify limiting the scope of regulatory oversight to a subset of design elements, on which a safety case is to be based. This step could be taken during initial review of a design, or later as part of an effort to justify relief from regulatory requirements that are burdensome but provide little actual risk reduction.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARYA safety case should arguably be based on a collection of design elements that combine to provide satisfactory plant response to important safety challenges, and provide this response with the desired reliability (achieved through redundancy and diversity in design, and programmatic support activities as necessary in implementation). The key property of such a collection resides in the set as a whole, and not in any single element: the implications of including or not including any given design element in the collection depend strongly on what other design elements are included. Given a logic model that comprehensively addresses plant response, reflecting all components under consideration, and a defense-in-depth safety standard of the kind discussed above, TEPA is capable of choosing prevention sets: subsets of components that have the desired defense-in-depth property, and are suitable candidates for serving as the nucleus of a safety case.Single-event importance measures cannot capture considerations like this, except perhaps as part of an arduous iterative reformulation of a logic model to successively remove and restore combinations of events in a trial-and-error approach to a self-consistent design solution. No method of applying conventional importance measures has been shown to produce solutions that are feasible in the sense of completing pathsets, nor is one expected. Interpreting the upper portion of a ranked list of components as a safety case would therefore be a misapplication of the importance measure concept.However, given a prevention set, one could apply importance measures to fine-tune the allocation of resources within this set. That is, one could compute importances within a model that took credit only for elements of the prevention set, and reason from there. Even in this case, some iteration might be required in order to achieve a self-consistent allocation (one for which the reliability credit taken for each component is commensurate with the resources allocated to it). In order to draw valid conclusions in an application of this type, one must recall that all importance measures are predicated on credit for all modeled components; it is invalid to infer that components can be dropped from a safety case on grounds of low calculated importance. In short, application of importance measures is valid when (a) the selection problem has been solved by other means, (b) the importances are calculated with credit only for selected components, and (c) the resources allocated to each component are commensurate with the level of credit taken for the component (e.g., credit for a component's availability is backed up by an appropriate test schedule.).A byproduct of this work is the observation that whether or not TEPA itself is applied to choose prevention sets, a useful litmus test to be applied to a safety case is simply whether it is based on a union of complete success paths. As discussed above, thinking of the safety case in this way has other benefits, in helping to identify unmodeled components and in helping to specify the demands that must be met by each component, so that programmatic activities necessary to ensure its function can be identified and carried out. This formulation of the safety case helps in thinking about the relationship between component performance and resources allocated to that component. Understanding this relationship is essential to optimizing the use of safety resources.The number of combinations (possible prevention sets) that must be examined grows very rapidly as the number of design elements and minimal cutsets increases. Therefore, many realistic problems will be very demanding computationally. To some extent, this could be considered a drawback of TEPA, but it should be understood that the underlying problem is combinatorially very difficult, and actual solutions to it should not be expected to come easily in all cases. Fortunately, as illustrated by the practical applications summarized above, many real large-scale problems have specific features that permit their solution by adaptations of the general approach.

Notes: This paper raises two questions, i.e., Are some people more prone to perceive hazards than others embedded in the same dangerous working environment?, and—if so—Is it possible to find distinguishing characteristics allowing us to profile this worker segment? A survey study was conducted among catering personnel working on a drilling platform at the continental shelf in the North sea. It was observed that some people more than others perceived hazards in their working environment. By contrasting the extreme groups, i.e., the high and low hazards perceivers it was found that sociodemographics, e.g., gender, marital status, age and working experience possessed no descriptive power. However, the findings revealed that the worker segment prone to perceive high hazards also reported higher degree of burnout, anxiety and depression than did the low hazards perceivers. They (the high hazards perceivers) were also less satisfied with their stay on the platform, and they reported more health problems as well. The findings indicate that hazards perceptions of hazards go beyond mere “cold cognition,” also tapping into negatively feelings and emotional states. Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted.

Notes: This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or “as consumed” condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.

Notes: The combination of radon and smoking produces a synergistic risk of lung cancer. Lay understanding of this risk was examined from the perspectives of mental models theory, the psychometric approach to risk perception, and optimistic bias. As assessed by interview, participants (N= 50) had more extensive mental models for the risks of smoking than for the risks of radon or the combination of radon and smoking; 32% knew little or nothing about radon. Despite reading an informational brochure, their risk-perception ratings of the three hazards showed no perception of the synergy between smoking and radon risk, although the combined hazard was rated as less familiar but more controllable than the average of the single hazards (p 〈 .01). No evidence of optimistic bias for the health consequences of radon, or the combination of radon and smoking was observed. Participants appeared to be combining the single-hazard risks subadditively to arrive at their combined-hazard risk perceptions. Further research on the integration of perceived risks would be beneficial for designing optimal communications about synergistic risk.

Notes: This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.

Notes: Sapphirine, coexisting with quartz, is an indicator mineral for ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism in aluminous rock compositions. Here a new activity-composition model for sapphirine is combined with the internally consistent thermodynamic dataset used by THERMOCALC, for calculations primarily in K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O (KFMASH). A discrepancy between published experimentally derived FMAS grids and our calculations is understood with reference to H2O. Published FMAS grids effectively represent constant aH2O sections, thereby limiting their detailed use for the interpretation of mineral reaction textures in compositions with differing H2O.For the calculated KFMASH univariant reaction grid, sapphirine + quartz assemblages occur at P–T in excess of 6–7 kbar and 1005 °C. Sapphirine compositions and composition ranges are consistent with natural examples. However, as many univariant equilibria are typically not ‘seen’ by a specific bulk composition, the univariant reaction grid may reveal little about the detailed topology of multi-variant equilibria, and therefore is of limited use for interpreting the P–T evolution of mineral assemblages and reaction sequences. Calculated pseudosections, which quantify bulk composition and multi-variant equilibria, predict experimentally determined KFMASH mineral assemblages with consistent topology, and also indicate that sapphirine stabilizes at increasingly higher pressure and temperature as XMg increases. Although coexisting sapphirine and quartz can occur in relatively iron-rich rocks if the bulk chemistry is sufficiently aluminous, the P–T window of stability shrinks with decreasing XMg. An array of mineral assemblages and mineral reaction sequences from natural sapphirine + quartz and other rocks from Enderby Land, Antarctica, are reproducible with calculated pseudosections. That consistent phase diagram calculations involving sapphirine can be performed allows for a more thorough assessment of the metamorphic evolution of high-temperature granulite facies terranes than was previously possible. The establishment of a a-x model for sapphirine provides the basis for expansion to larger, more geologically realistic chemical systems (e.g. involving Fe3+).

Notes: It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual “trust” effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Notes: The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD, values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECSQ database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD, values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mgadministered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Notes: Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.

Notes: Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample (N = 1022) was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard sociodemographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and sociodemographic variables were themselves inter correlated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues.

Notes: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.

Notes: A substantial body of risk research indicates that women and men differ in their perceptions of risk. This paper discusses how they differ and why. A review of a number of existing empirical studies of risk perception points at several problems, regarding what gender differences are found in such studies, and how these differences are accounted for. Firstly, quantitative approaches, which have so far dominated risk research, and qualitative approaches give different, sometimes even contradictory images of women's and men's perceptions of risk. Secondly, the gender differences that appear are often left unexplained, and even when explanations are suggested, these are seldom related to gender research and gender theory in any systematic way. This paper argues that a coherent, theoretically informed gender perspective on risk is needed to improve the understanding of women's and men's risk perceptions. An analysis of social theories of gender points out some relations and distinctions which should be considered in such a perspective. It is argued that gender structures, reflected in gendered ideology and gendered practice, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk. These gender differences may be of different kinds, and their investigation requires the use of qualitative as well as quantitative methods. In conclusion, the arguments about gender and risk perception are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point for further research.

Notes: The AC electric and magnetic fields associated with high voltage power lines have become a concern as a possible health risk. In most cases the strength of these fields decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the line. In earlier work, we found that laypeople do not understand how rapidly field strength decreases with distance. Most believe that any high voltage power line they can see is exposing them to strong fields. This paper confirms the earlier finding and explores a number of strategies which might be used in risk communications to correct this misperception. We found it relatively easy to provide subjects with a better understanding of the range-dependency of magnetic field strength. Moreover, the quality of this acquisition was apparently independent of the manner in which they were instructed. Such successful instruction is markedly different from the well-established difficulty of teaching people about many qualitative domains, such as physics or ideas in probability. Clearly, while some erroneous beliefs are highly resistant to change, others can be altered quite readily. We suspect that an important distinction between knowledge about the range-dependency of power-frequency magnetic fields and less tractable topics involves the presence or absence of prior folk-theories or “mental models” of the domain.

Notes: In the spring of 1993, about 39% of Milwaukee-area residents suffered through a nationally publicized illness brought about by cryptosporidium, a parasite that had infested the metropolitan drinking water supply. Our study, based on a telephone survey of 610 local adult residents, indicates that worry about becoming ill in the future with cryptosporidiosis relates more strongly and consistently to public reliance on, and use of, media for cryptosporidium information than do a range of risk perception and experience variables. We propose that more studies should take an audience-centered approach to understanding risk communication.

Notes: This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.

Notes: Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of “technological stigma” that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.

Notes: This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mgkg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mgkg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mgkg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mgkg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mgkg.

Notes: Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from “stakeholders” based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.

Notes: In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-”1.8 X

Notes: This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.

Notes: Real-world exposure measurements are a necessary ingredient for subsequent detailed study of the risks from an environmental pollutant. For volatile organic compounds, researchers are applying exhaled breath analysis and the time dependence of concentrations as a noninvasive indicator of exposure, dose, and blood levels. To optimize the acquisition of such data, samples must be collected in a time frame suited to the needs of the mathematical model, within physical limitations of the equipment and subjects, and within logistical constraints. Additionally, one must consider the impact of measurement error on the eventual extraction of biologically and physiologically relevant parameters. Given a particular mathematical model for the elimination kinetics (in this case a very simple pharmacokinetic model based upon a multitenn exponential decay function that has been shown to fit real-world data extremely well), we investigated the effects on synthetic data caused by sample timing, random measurement error, and number of terms included in the model. This information generated a series of conditions for collecting samples and performing analyses dependent upon the eventual informational needs, and it provided an estimate of error associated with various choices and compromises. Though the work was geared specifically toward breath sampling, it is equally applicable to direct blood measurements in optimizing sampling strategy and improving the exposure assessment process.

Notes: Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

Notes: This paper investigates electrical overheating events aboard a habitable spacecraft. The wire insulation involved in these failures plays a major role in the entire event scenario from threat development to detection and damage assessment. Ideally, if models of wire overheating events in microgravity existed, the various wire insulations under consideration could be quantitatively compared. However, these models do not exist. In this paper, a methodology is developed that can be used to select a wire insulation that is best suited for use in a habitable spacecraft. The results of this study show that, based upon the Analytic Hierarchy Process and simplifying assumptions, the criteria selected, and data used in the analysis, Tefzel is better than Teflon for use in a habitable spacecraft.

Notes: Large garnet poikiloblasts hosted by leucosome in metapelitic gneiss from Broken Hill reflect complex mineral–melt relationships. The spatial relationship between the leucosomes and the garnet poikiloblasts implies that the growth of garnet was strongly linked to the production of melt. The apparent difficulty of garnet to nucleate a large number of grains during the prograde breakdown of coexisting biotite and sillimanite led to the spatial focussing of melting reactions around the few garnet nuclei that formed. Continued reaction of biotite and sillimanite required diffusion of elements from where minerals were reacting to sites of garnet growth. This diffusion was driven by chemical potential gradients between garnet-bearing and garnet-absent parts of the rock. As a consequence, melt and peritectic K-feldspar also preferentially formed around the garnet. The diffusion of elements led to the chemical partitioning of the rock within an overall context in which equilibrium may have been approached. Thus, the garnet-bearing leucosomes record in situ melt formation around garnet porphyroblasts rather than centimetre-scale physical melt migration and segregation. The near complete preservation of the high-grade assemblages in the mesosome and leucosome is consistent with substantial melt loss. Interconnected networks between garnet-rich leucosomes provide the most likely pathway for melt migration. Decimetre-scale, coarse-grained, garnet-poor leucosomes may represent areas of melt flux through a large-scale melt transfer network.

Notes: Human exposure assessments require a linkage between toxicant concentrations in occupied spaces and the receptor's mobility pattern. Databases reporting distinct populations' mobility in various parts of the home, time outside the home, and time in another building are scarce. Temporal longitudinal trends in these mobility patterns for specific age and gender groups are nonexistent. This paper describes subgroup trends in the spatial and temporal mobility patterns within the home, outside the home, and in another building for 619 Iowa females that occupied the same home for at least 20 years. The study found that the mean time spent at home for the participants ranged from a low of 69.4% for the 50-59 year age group to a high of 81.6% for the over 80-year-old age group. Participants who lived in either one- or two- story homes with basements spent the majority of their residential occupancy on the first story. Trends across age varied for other subgroups by number of children, education, and urbadrural status. Since all of these trends were nonlinear, they indicate that error exists when assuming a constant, such as a 75% home occupancy factor, which has been advocated by some researchers and agencies. In addition, while aggregate data, such as presented in this report, are more helpll in deriving risk estimates for population subgroups, they cannot supplant good individual-level data for determining risks.

Notes: The National Research Council has recommended the use of an analytic/deliberative decision making process in environmental restoration decisions that involve multiple stakeholders. This work investigates the use of the results of risk assessment and multiattribute utility analysis (the “analysis”) in guiding the deliberation. These results include the ranking of proposed remedial action alternatives according to each stakeholder's preferences, as well as the identification of the major reasons for these rankings. The stakeholder preferences are over a number of performance measures that include the traditional risk assessment metrics, e.g., individual worker risk, as well as programmatic, cultural, and cost-related impacts. Based on these results, a number of proposals are prepared for consideration by the stakeholders during the deliberation. These proposals are the starting point for the formulation of actual recommendations by the group. In our case study, these recommendations included new remedial action alternatives that were created by the stakeholders after an extensive discussion of the detailed analytical results.

Notes: Comprehensive uncertainty analyses of complex models of environmental and biological systems are essential but often not feasible due to the computational resources they require. “Traditional” methods, such as standard Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling, for propagating uncertainty and developing probability densities of model outputs, may in fact require performing a prohibitive number of model simulations. An alternative is offered, for a wide range of problems, by the computationally efficient “Stochastic Response Surface Methods (SRSMs)” for uncertainty propagation. These methods extend the classical response surface methodology to systems with stochastic inputs and outputs. This is accomplished by approximating both inputs and outputs of the uncertain system through stochastic series of “well behaved” standard random variables; the series expansions of the outputs contain unknown coefficients which are calculated by a method that uses the results of a limited number of model simulations. Two case studies are presented here involving (a) a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for perchloroethylene (PERC) for humans, and (b) an atmospheric photochemical model, the Reactive Plume Model (RPM-IV). The results obtained agree closely with those of traditional Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Sampling methods, while significantly reducing the required number of model simulations.

Notes: The paper presents a straightforward method of calculating approximate orientation parameters (six degrees of freedom) of a known targeted object relative to a single calibrated camera. These can then initialise an optimised non-linear calculation of the same parameter values. The method uses the mathematics of a scaled parallel projection and is particularly suited to narrow angle images obtained using a telescope, telephoto or zoom lens. However, the method can also be used with cameras having wider fields of view provided the target group occupies a moderately small part of the image.

Notes: This paper describes three mathematical modelling methods for high-resolution declassified CORONA KH-4B images. Since CORONA images are collected with a panoramic camera, several types of geometric distortions are involved. Two methods use the modified collinearity equations, and the third involves the terrain-dependent rational function model (RFM) which is considered to be a generic sensor model. Comparative analysis of the three mathematical modelling methods is undertaken. The results show that a ± 1·5 pixels level of horizontal and vertical accuracy can be obtained. A digital elevation model (DEM) of a test site is also created.

Notes: The aim of this paper is to offer regional evidence from Spain on alcohol abuse among adolescents. Specifically, we identify the determinants of the decision to abuse alcohol with respect to the five most important regions of Spain, as well as for the country as a whole. To this end, we estimate Probit specifications using data drawn from the Spanish Surveys on Drug Use in the School Population corresponding to 1994, 1996 and 1998. The results first reveal patterns that are qualitatively similar, but quantitatively different. Similarly, it would appear that economic policies aimed at reducing the access of adolescents to alcohol may have a positive effect on reducing abuse. Finally, the results suggest that encouragement be given to healthy habits among young people, as well as to the fight against education failure and the launching of information campaigns that accurately portray the current lifestyle of adolescents.

Notes: The aim of this study was to determine the knowledge and acceptability of soymilk (defined as consumption pattern/usage and taste) by adult consumers, residing in different socio-economic areas (low vs. high) in Cape Town. The study population of 214 participants were selected using convenience sampling. A questionnaire was developed in order to obtain demographic data (four items); basic general knowledge of soymilk (four items); and acceptability of the tested products (consumption patterns and taste) (eight items). There was a significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.000) regarding basic knowledge of soymilk, with significantly more in the high socio-economic area (HSEA) having a score of at least 75%. Gender (P = 0.082) and age (P = 0.122) did not have a significant impact on the consumption patterns of soymilk. There was no significant difference between the two groups with respect to current usage (P = 0.228) and frequency of use (P = 0.213) of soymilk. However, a significantly smaller group (P = 0.000) of participants in the low socio-economic area had previously tasted soymilk compared with those in the HSEA (16.7% vs. 41.5%; P = 0.000). In conclusion, socio-economic status appeared to be associated with knowledge of soymilk. No significant differences with regard to gender, age or current usage in the two groups studied were noted.

Notes: “The capacity to blunder slightly is the real marvel of DNA. Without this special attribute, we would still be anaerobic bacteria and there would be no music.” Lewis Thomas3Hypotrichs have evolved extraordinary ways of organizing, manipulating, and replicating the DNA in their micronuclear and macronuclear genomes. Short macronuclear DNA molecules containing single genes are created by excision from chromosomes, accompanied by massive elimination of the germline DNA sequences between genes. Germline genes themselves are interrupted by multiple noncoding segments called internal eliminated segments, or IESs, that divide genes into multiple macronuclear-destined segments, or MDSs. The functional significance of this organization is unknown. Over evolutionary time IESs accumulate mutations rapidly are inserted into or excised from genes, and shift position along DNA molecules. MDSs are ligated to create functional genes when IESs are spliced out of micronuclear DNA during macronuclear development. MDSs in some germline genes are in scrambled disorder and become unscrambled in association with IES elimination. Replication of DNA in the macronucleus is accomplished by organization of replication enzymes and factors into a structure that sweeps through the macronucleus to replicate the many millions of gene-sized DNA molecules. The significance of many of the bizarre DNA phenomena in the evolutionary/functional success of hypotrichs is still unclear.

Notes: Pneumocystis carinii, a major opportunistic lung pathogen of AIDS patients, is found in a number of mammals and is proposed to be a member of the fungi. In this work, several members of the highly conserved HSP70 multigene family were characterized from rat-derived P. carinii. Previously, we reported characterization of the ER resident HSP70 homolog known as BiP from prototype (P. c. carinii) and variant (P. c. rattus) strains of the organism. We report here, from P. c. carinii, characterization of Pcsal, an HSP70 homolog that encodes a cognate/stress-induced HSP70 homolog of the SSA subfamily in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We also identify from both rat strains and from a human isolate of P. carinii (P.c. hominis), a third set of HSP70 homologs that apparently encode a ribosome-associated cytoplasmic HSP70 homologous to the S. cerevisiae SSB subfamily. Our data indicate that Pcsal mRNA, like Pcbip mRNA, bears an intron in the 5′ untranslated region, is induced by heat shock, and suggest that this gene undergoes alternative transcription and splicing. The SSB homologs display significant sequence heterogeneity between P. carinii source strains, supporting the genetic divergence and likely speciation of P. carinii isolates within and between host species. Phylogenetic analysis with the PcSAl protein supports inclusion of P. carinii among the higher fungi.

Notes: Diffusion theory can completely describe the movement of a ciliate along a track of a certain length (L), travelled in a time (t), and with the extremes lying at a distance D. Three important descriptors of this behavior are: (1) the kinetic index (Ik= L/t), namely the average velocity in μm/s, which expresses the state of the “accelerator” of the ciliate; (2) the geometric index (Ig= D/L) measuring the straightness of the track by a dimensionless number. 0 ≤ Ig≤ 1, which expresses the state of the “steering wheel” and represents a sort of “directional efficiency”; and (3) the displacement rate (Rd= D/t), integrating the first two indices and expressing the combined effect of the “accelerator” and the “steering wheel” of the organism with a unique measure (in μm/s), which defines the average displacement rate or the effectiveness of the track in displacing the organism in space. A weighted estimate of general mobility is given by the mobility rate [Rmo= (R̄d.f)creeping- (R̄d.f)swimming], obtained by multiplying the average Rd of the creeping organisms and the average Rd of the swimming organisms by their relative frequencies of occurrence (f), and adding the two products. Values for experimental populations of Oxytricha bifaria (Ciliata, Hypotrichida) maintained at 24, 19, 14, and 9° C demonstrated both the appropriateness and the usefulness of these indices and rates to describe the tracks a posteriori, and to provide measures to reason about their possible adaptive significance.

Notes: The diversity of symbiotic dinoflagellates (SD) from seven coral species (Fungia scutaria, Fungia paumotensis, Lep-tastrea transversa, Pavona cactus, Pocillopora verrucosa, Montastrea curia, and Acropora fonnosa) was studied in a restricted geographical area, the Lagoon of Arue on the island of Tahiti. Their diversity was explored by small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA) restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). After a nested amplification with SD specific primers, RFLP analyses were performed directly and after a cloning step. The diversity of these different SSU rDNA was estimated in respect to possible technical artifacts. In an axenic culture of SD from the coral Galaxea fascicularis, both heterogeneous SSU rDNAs and artifact molecules were observed as in our SD samples. According to the number of patterns observed, corals Fungia paumotensis, Leptastrea transversa. Pavona cactus, Montastrea curia, and Acropora fonnosa contained one class of SD SSU rDNAs. whereas Fungia scutaria and Pocillopora verrucosa contained three and two classes of SD SSU rDNAs respectively. In the limited geographic area studied. SD from different coral species shared the same pattern, except SD from Montastrea curta, which showed a unique pattern. In addition to the possibility of SD flux among different coral species, specific mechanisms could also be involved in the establishment of a symbiosis.

Notes: We examined the effects of the macrolide antimicrobial agent azithromycin and phenothiazine compounds against clinical isolates of Acanthamoeba spp. and Balamuthia mandrillaris, opportunistic pathogens of human beings and other animals. Acanthamoeba growth was inhibited in vitro at 1,5, and 10 μg/ml of azithromycin, but not the macrolides, erythromycin, and clarithromycin. In experiments attempting to simulate in vivo conditions, azithromycin protected monolayers of rat glioma cells from destruction by Acanthamoeba at a concentration of 0.1 μg/ml, and delayed destruction at concentrations of 0.001 and 0.01 μg/ml. We concluded that the minimal inhibitory concentration of azithromycin was 0.1 μg/ml. Our results, however, suggested that the drug was amebastatic but not amebicidal, since ameba growth eventually resumed after drug removal. The phenothiazines (chlorpromazine, chlorprothixene, and triflupromazine) inhibited Acanthamoeba growth by 70-90% at 5 and 10 μg/ml, but some of these compounds were toxic for rat glioma cells at 10 μg/ml. Azithromycin was not very effective against B. mandrillaris in an in vitro setting, but was amebastatic in tissue culture monolayers at concentrations of 0.1 μg/ml and higher. Balamuthia amebas showed in vitro sensitivity to phenothiazines. Ameba growth was inhibited 30-45% at 5 μg/ml in vitro, but completely at 5 μg/ml in the rat glioma model. In spite of their potential as antiamebic drugs in Balamuthia infections, toxicity of phenothiazines limits their use in clinical settings.

Notes: Morphological features of the rumen ciliate Ostracodinium gracile (Dogiel, 1925) are described from pyridinated silver carbonate-impregnated specimens. Ostracodinium gracile has a characteristic arrangement of infraciliary bands not present in other ophryoscolecid ciliates. Buccal infraciliature is composed of three polybrachykineties. The adoral polybrachykinety does not completely encircle the circumference of the vestibular opening, but arches ventrally from its right to left side. The dorsoadoral polybrachykinety extends laterally along the dorsal side of the vestibular opening. The vestibular polybrachykinety extends along the dorsal wall of the long tubular vestibulum. Dorsal infraciliature consists of the dorsal polybrachykinety that extends laterally along the dorsal side of the body. During binary fission, four primordia, that is ventral, right, left, and dorsal primordia, form in the stomatogenic field and develop into the adoral, dorsoadoral, vestibular, and dorsal polybrachykineties of the opisthe. respectively.

Notes: The phylogenetic diversity of parabasalian flagellates from termite hindguts has been examined by small subunit ribosomal RNA (rRNA) amplification and sequencing. Two species of particular interest, the giant trichomonad Pseudotrypanosoma giganteum and the hypermastigote Trichonympha magna, were isolated from the gut of Porotermes adamsoni by micropipetting. and the rRNA genes from these small populations amplified and sequenced. rRNA genes representing Hypermastigida and the Trichomonadida families Devescovinidae and Trichomonadidae. were also recovered by amplification from whole hindguts of three termites, P. adamsoni, Cryptotermes brevis, and Cryptotermes dudleyi. The parabasalian rRNA genes from C. brevis were found to comprise a unique and extremely heterogeneous lineage with no clear affinities to any known parabasalian rRNAs. In addition, one of the sequences isolated from P. Adamsoni was found to be similar to another uncharacterised rRNA gene from Reticulitermes flavipes. The phylogeny of all known parabasalian small subunit rRNAs was examined with these new sequences. We find many taxonomic groups to be supported by rRNA, but not all. We have found the root of parabasalia to be very difficult to discern accurately, but have nevertheless identified several possible positions.

Notes: The full length coding sequence of the Euglena gracilis actin gene was determined by RT-PCR of Euglena gracilis mRNA. Conserved regions in the actin amino acid sequence were used as guides for the synthesis of degenerate primers. Sequence was obtained for 1.238 nucleotides, of which 1.131 were coding for 377 amino acids. Sequence comparisons showed a similarity with other actins of 56% to 80%. Even though most of the actin amino acid sequence was conserved, some regions showed high divergence, i.e. the DNase I-binding loop at the N-terminal region. The construction of a phylogenetic tree based on actin sequences from different organisms placed Euglena gracilis in a cluster with Trypanosoma brucei and Leishmania major.

Notes: Trachipleistophora anthropophthera n. sp., was found at autopsy in the brain of one and in the brain, kidneys, pancreas, thyroid, parathyroid, heart, liver, spleen, lymph nodes, and bone marrow of a second patient with AIDS. The parasite is similar to the recently described T. hominis Hollister, Canning, Weidner, Field. Kench and Marriott, 1996, in having isolated nuclei, meronts with a thick layer of electron dense material on the outer face of their plasmalemma and sporogony during which spores are formed inside a thick-walled sporophorous vesicle. In contrast to T. hominis, this species is dimorphic as it forms two kinds of sporophorous vesicles and spores: Type I-round to oval polysporous sporophorous vesicle. 7-10 μm in size, usually with eight spores (3.7 × 2.0 μm), thick endospores, subterminal anchoring disc and anisofilar polar filaments forming seven thicker and two thinner terminal coils. This type of sporophorous vesicle is associated with 25-30 nm filaments extending into the host cell cytoplasm. Type II—smaller, bisporous sporophorous vesicle (4-5 times 2.2-2.5 μm) with two, nearly round, thin-walled spores, 2.2-2.5 × 1.8-2.0 μm in size, having 4-5 isofilar coils. No outside filamentous elements are associated with the bisporous sporophorous vesicle. Both types of sporophorous vesicles were common in the infected brain tissue and could be found within the same cell. The newly described species, together with T. hominis and previously reported Pleistophora-like parasites from human muscle, likely represent a group of closely related human microsporidia.

Notes: To obtain additional information on the phylogenetic relationships within the family Trypanosomatidae (order Kinetoplastida), we have sequenced the small subunit ribosomal RNA genes from the endosymbiont containing species Herpetomonas roitmani TCC080, Herpetomonas sp. TCC263, Crithidia oncopelti ATCC 12982 and a partial large subunit rRNA gene from H. roitmani. The small subunit sequences in the two isolates of Herpetomonas are very similar but not identical, and so are their restriction digest profiles of kinetoplast DNA. The size of minicircles in both isolates is 4.2 kilobases. The inferred ribosomal RNA phylogenetic trees shows the genera Herpetomonas and Crithidia as polyphyletic. Endosymbiont-bearing herpetomonads cluster with the endosymbiont-bearing crithidias and a blastocrithidia to form a monophyletic clade, whereas the endosymbiont-free members of these genera are found elsewhere in the tree. These data support the hypothesis of a monophyletic origin of endosymbiosis in trypanosomatid evolution and also suggest that a taxonomic revision is needed in order to better describe the natural affinities in this family.

Notes: We compared 16S-like ribosomal RNA (rRNA) coding regions of samples of the solitary spumellarian radiolarian Thalassicolla nucleata collected from the Sargasso Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Sequences derived from these locations showed variability in both length and base-pair composition. This level of sequence variability is similar to the degree of variability reported in the literature for species- or even genus-level distinctions. Explanations for our results include multiple alleles for the rRNA gene, or the existence of multiple species of Thalassicolla that are morphologically indistinguishable. The seven existing descriptions of Thalassicolla species, including T. nucleata, are discussed in view of these molecular findings and with reference to our current understanding of the physiology and life cycle of the spumellarian radiolaria.

Notes: We describe the transmission and pathogenic effects of a novel, feminising microsporidium, probably a Nasema species, on its crustacean host Gammarus duebeni. The parasite prevalence in the field was high (46% of females were infected) and the parasite was transovarially transmitted to 91% of embryos of infected females. The impact of the parasite on the host was assessed by means of a host breeding experiment. The parasite feminised 66% of infected host young and was transovarially transmitted by these individuals to the next host generation. The parasite differed from other feminising microsporidia in G. duebeni in that early embryos had a high parasite burden (288 parasites per embryo) and the infection was pathogenic, causing a reduction in both the growth rate of young hosts and in adult size. This study suggests that feminising microsporidia are a diverse group in which a variety of host/pathogen relationships have evolved.

Notes: The lipophosphoglycan-like (LPG-like) molecules of E. histolytica virulent strains are clearly distinct from those of the avirulent E. histolytica and E. dispar strains. Abundant ‘LPG’ levels are apparently limited to virulent strains, while lipophosphopeptidoglycans (‘LPPG's) are common to both virulent and avirulent strains of E. histolytica and E. dispar. It is therefore conceivable that ‘LPPG’ performs a function that is essential to survival within the host, while the ‘LPG’ performs a more specific function related to virulence.

Notes: Attachment of Entamoeba histolytica to colonic epithelium and a variety of other target cells is mediated by a galactosc/N-acetyl D-galactosamine (Gal/GalNAc) inhibitable adhesin. Seven monoclonal antibodies specific for nonoverlapping epitopes of the 170 kDa subunit have been shown to have distinct effects on adherence. Four of these monoclonal antibodies inhibit or have no effect on amebic adherence while two others enhance amebic adherence. The epitopes recognized by these seven monoclonal antibodies have been mapped to the extracellular cysteine rich region of the 170 kDa subunit. The conformational nature of the epitopes was examined by testing monoclonal antibody reactivity with isolated regions of the 170 kDa subunit expressed as fusion proteins in E. coli and also with denatured native adhesin. These analyses suggested that three of monoclonal antibodies recognized conformational epitopes while the remaining four recognized linear epitopes. The mapping of these monoclonal antibodies have identified functionally important regions of the Gal/GalNAc adhesin and have also shown that recombinant Gal/GalNAc adhesin, when expressed in E. coli, retained at least some of its native conformation.

Notes: Entamoeba histolytica, the protozoan parasite, is the causative agent of amoebiasis. The degree of virulence, as inferred from invasiveness, of potentially pathogenic strains may be regulated by both host and parasite factors that determine the gut environment. One such factor that plays an important role is the bacterial flora in the gut. Previous studies have clearly shown that bacterial flora is an important determinant of virulence in E. histolytica. However, the exact nature of changes induced in E. histolytica in response to bacteria and their role in virulence is not clear. In this study the levels of a number of molecules potentially important in virulence mechanisms were determined in E. histolytica cells grown with and without normal human bacterial flora, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Significant changes were observed only after the E. histolytica cells had been adapted to grow with bacterial flora for a number of generations, and not in short term culture.

Notes: The presence of (Ca2/calmodulin (Ca2/CaM)-dependent protein kinase (TcCaM K) and some stage-specific substrates that appeared during morphogenesis of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi were identified. Western blot analysis using a polyclonal antibody against rat brain CaM K type II recognized the same subunit composition (52, 59/62 kDa) observed for the mammalian enzyme, as well as the previously characterized TcCaM K found in epimastigote forms. Differential protein phosphorylation profiles were observed after enzyme activation in the stages of T. cruzi. Co-immunoprecipitation of stage-specific substrates with the TcCaM K suggested that the enzyme might be involved in the phosphorylation of a different set of proteins through the life cycle. Three phosphoproteins, pp105 and pp87 from epimastigotes and pp23 from trypomastigotes were identified as potential substrates for TcCaM K. The characterization of these endogenous stage markers might be a useful tool to understand the developmental cycles of these pathogenic protozoa.