ALBERT

Description: Svante Arrhenius' research in atmospheric physics extended beyond the recent past and the near future states of the Earth, which today are at the center of sociopolitical attention. His plan encompassed all of the physical phenomena known at the time to relate to the formation and evolution of stars and planets. His two-volume textbook on cosmic physics is a comprehensive synopsis of the field. The inquiry into the possible cause of the ice ages and the theory of selective wavelength filter control led Arrhenius to consider the surface states of the other terrestrial planets, and of the ancient Earth before it had been modified by the emergence of life. The rapid escape of hydrogen and the equilibration with igneous rocks required that carbon in the early atmosphere prevailed mainly in oxidized form as carbon dioxide, together with other photoactive gases exerting a greenhouse effect orders of magnitude larger than in our present atmosphere. This effect, together with the ensuing chemical processes, would have set the conditions for life to evolve on our planet, seeded from spores spreading through an infinite Universe, and propelled, as Arrhenius thought, by stellar radiation pressure.

Description: The addition of the "dioxin-like" polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners to the assessment of risk associated with the 2,3,7,8-chlorine substituted dioxins and furans has dramatically increased the number of laboratories worldwide that are developing analytical procedures for their detection and quantitation. Most of these procedures are based on established sample preparation and analytical techniques employing high resolution gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS), which are used for the analyses of dioxin/furans at low parts-per-trillion (ppt) levels. A significant and widespread problem that arises when using these sample preparation procedures for the analysis of coplanar PCBs is the presence of background levels of these congeners. Industrial processes, urban incineration, leaking electrical transformers, hazardous waste accidents, and improper waste disposal practices have released appreciable quantities of PCBs into the environment. This contamination has resulted in the global distribution of these compounds via the atmosphere and their ubiquitous presence in ambient air. The background presence of these compounds in method blanks must be addressed when determining the exact concentrations of these and other congeners in environmental samples. In this study reliable procedures were developed to accurately define these background levels and assess their variability over the course of the study. The background subtraction procedures developed and employed increase the probability that the values reported accurately represent the concentrations found in the samples and were not biased due to this background contamination.

Description: Now that extrasolar planets have been found, it is timely to ask whether some of them might be suitable for life. Climatic constraints on planetary habitability indicate that a reasonably wide habitable zone exists around main sequence stars with spectral types in the early-F to mid-K range. However, it has not been demonstrated that planets orbiting such stars would be habitable when biologically-damaging energetic radiation is also considered. The large amounts of UV radiation emitted by early-type stars have been suggested to pose a problem for evolving life in their vicinity. But one might also argue that the real problem lies with late-type stars, which emit proportionally less radiation at the short wavelengths (lambda 〈 200 nm) required to split O2 and initiate ozone formation. We show here that neither of these concerns is necessarily fatal to the evolution of advanced life: Earth-like planets orbiting F and K stars may well receive less harmful UV radiation at their surfaces than does the Earth itself.

Description: The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), a platform for investigations in an environment hostile to manned spacecraft, is discussed. A program which includes the use of UAVs coupled with ground-based measurements to conduct scientific studies on the electrical state of the atmosphere during electrically active periods is proposed. The radiating power from alternate current and transient components of the storm electrification was investigated.

Description: Taiwan is situated in the prevalent typhoon track in the northwestern Pacific. On average, about one third of the island total annual precipitation is due to typhoons, with the other two third being contributed by the summer monsoon, or Meiyu, and wintertime large scale frontal rainfall. While the typhoons bring the needed moisture for agricultural consumption and industrial utilization, heavy rainfall associated with typhoons often result in large scale flooding and land slide. The prediction of the typhoon track and its severity is therefore a high priority topic both for operation and research. The severity of a typhoon can be defined in terms of the wind strength and the moisture content. The Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites measures microwave radiation in 19.4, 22.2, 37, and 85.5 GHz. These measurements provide an opportunity to estimate parameters such as surface wind speed, water vapor and cloud water contents, and rainfall rate over oceans. In 1994, Taiwan experienced an above normal frequency of typhoon hits, five typhoons hit the island in two months. In this report, estimates of the moisture content of these typhoons are made based on the SSM/I measurements. An assessment of the relative strength of the typhoons are made with analyzed data.

Description: Simultaneous measurements with the millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR), cloud lidar system (CLS), and the MODIS airborne simulator (MAS) were made aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft over the western Pacific Ocean on 17-18 January 1993. These measurements were used to study the effects of clouds on water vapor profile retrievals based on millimeter-wave radiometer measurements. The CLS backscatter measurements (at 0.532 and 1.064 am) provided information on the heights and a detailed structure of cloud layers; the types of clouds could be positively identified. All 12 MAS channels (0.6-13 Am) essentially respond to all types of clouds, while the six MIR channels (89-220 GHz) show little sensitivity to cirrus clouds. The radiances from the 12-/Am and 0.875-gm channels of the MAS and the 89-GHz channel of the MIR were used to gauge the performance of the retrieval of water vapor profiles from the MIR observations under cloudy conditions. It was found that, for cirrus and absorptive (liquid) clouds, better than 80% of the retrieval was convergent when one of the three criteria was satisfied; that is, the radiance at 0.875 Am is less than 100 W/cm.sr, or the brightness at 12 Am is greater than 260 K, or brightness at 89 GHz is less than 270 K (equivalent to cloud liquid water of less than 0.04 g/cm). The range of these radiances for convergent retrieval increases markedly when the condition for convergent retrieval was somewhat relaxed. The algorithm of water vapor profiling from the MIR measurements could not perform adequately over the areas of storm-related clouds that scatter radiation at millimeter wavelengths.

Description: Global estimation of wind speeds near the sea-surface can be obtained using normalized radar cross sections sigma(o) from satellite-borne single-frequency altimeters. Indeed recent validation studies of Geosat altimeter-derived wind speeds show that several often cited semiempirical algorithms yield linear trends between wind-speeds from altimeter data and wind speeds from (a) ships of opportunity (Etcheto 1992), (b) buoys (Carter 1992), and (c) atmospheric models (Guillaume 1992). Although the linear trends are striking, there is considerable scatter since the range of standard deviations is from 1.5 to 3 m/s. In fact, the scatter of some particular measurements about the regressions is striking because they depart from the 'standard' by as much as +/- 5 m/s, which is large - even for full gale winds of 20 m/s. These anomalies can cause serious problems for gas exchange, heat, and aerosol estimates. They can also induce considerable errors in wind-driven oceanic circulation models and sea-surface wave models. This paper explores the possibility of improving the accuracy of wind speed estimation using dual-frequency altimeters.

Description: The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission offers the first opportunity to observe rain cells over the ocean by a dual-frequency radar altimeter (TOPEX) and simultaneously observe their natural radiative properties by a three-frequency radiometer (TOPEX microwave radiometer (TMR)). This work is a feasibility study aimed at understanding the capability and potential of the active/passive TOPEX/TMR system for oceanic rainfall detection. On the basis of past experiences in rain flagging, a joint TOPEX/TMR rain probability index is proposed. This index integrates several advantages of the two sensors and provides a more reliable rain estimate than the radiometer alone. One year's TOPEX/TMR data are used to test the performance of the index. The resulting rain frequency statistics show quantitative agreement with those obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while qualitative agreement is found for other regions of the world ocean. A recent finding that the latitudinal frequency of precipitation over the Southern Ocean increases steadily toward the Antarctic continent is confirmed by our result. Annual and seasonal precipitation maps are derived from the index. Notable features revealed include an overall similarity in rainfall pattern from the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Indian Oceans and a general phase reversal between the two hemispheres, as well as a number of regional anomalies in terms of rain intensity. Comparisons with simultaneous Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) multisatellite precipitation rate and COADS rain climatology suggest that systematic differences also exist. One example is that the maximum rainfall in the ITCZ of the Indian Ocean appears to be more intensive and concentrated in our result compared to that of the GPCP. Another example is that the annual precipitation produced by TOPEX/TMR is constantly higher than those from GPCP and COADS in the extratropical regions of the northern hemisphere, especially in the northwest Pacific Ocean. Analyses of the seasonal variations of prominent rainy and dry zones in the tropics and subtropics show various behaviors such as systematic migration, expansion and contraction, merging and breakup, and pure intensity variations. The seasonality of regional features is largely influenced by local atmospheric events such as monsoon, storm, or snow activities. The results of this study suggest that TOPEX and its follow-on may serve as a complementary sensor to the special sensor microwave/imager in observing global oceanic precipitation.

Description: We examined nine satellite rainfall algorithms and compared the rain fields produced from these algorithms for the period of August 1987 to December 1988. Preliminary results show algorithms which use the same satellite sensor data tend to be similar, suggesting the importance of sampling. Oceanic global mean rainfall ranges from 2.7 to 3.6 mm/d. The variability in zonal mean rain rate is about 1.5-2 mm/d for these algorithms.

Description: In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W/m in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (+/- 10 W/sq m). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W/sq m and 25 W/sq m, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W/m for sensible beat flux and 10 W/m for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to ground water, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Description: From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons, Violet and Tom, as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction (Figure 1), and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds (Figure 2). We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved [e.g., Sinclair, 1993], but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter. The antennas scan two 600-km bands of the ocean, which are separated by a 330-km data gap. From NSCAT observations, surface wind vectors can be derived at 25-km spatial resolution, covering 77% of the ice-free ocean in one day and 97% of the ocean in two days, under both clear and cloudy conditions.

Description: Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Description: A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from in Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing, and arrival time of lightning radio emissions and solutions for the plane (i.e.. no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of these measurements. The accuracy of the retrieval method is tested using computer-simulated data sets and the relative influence of bearing and arrival time data on the outcome of the final solution is formally demonstrated. The algorithm is sufficiently accurate to validate NASA's Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging System (LIS). We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. For arbitrary noncollinear network geometries and in the absence of measurement errors, it is shown that the two quadratic roots are equivalent (no source location ambiguity) on the outer sensor baselines. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer-generated data sets and the results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 degrees.

Description: Radiometric measurements were made by a millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) at the frequencies of 89, 150, 183.3 +/- 1, 183.3 +/- 3, 183.3 +/- 7, and 220 GHz aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft at an altitude of about 20 km over two rainstorms: one in the western Pacific Ocean on 19 January 1993 and another in southern Florida on 5 October 1993. These measurements were complemented by nearly simultaneous observations by other sensors aboard the same aircraft and another aircraft flying along the same path. Analysis of data from these measurements, aided by radiative transfer and radar reflectivity calculations of hydrometeor profiles, which arc generated by a general cloud ensemble model, demonstrates the utility of these frequencies for studying the structure of frozen hydrometeors associated with storms. Particular emphasis is placed on the three water vapor channels near 183.3 GHz. Results show that the radiometric signatures measured by these channels over the storm-associated scattering media bear a certain resemblance to those previously observed over a clear and fairly dry atmosphere with a cold ocean background. Both of these atmospheric conditions are characterized by a small amount of water vapor above a cold background. Radiative transfer calculations were made at these water vapor channels for a number of relative humidity profiles characterizing dry atmospheres over an ocean surface. The results are compared with the measurements to infer some characteristics of the environment near the scattering media. Furthermore, radiometric signatures from these channels display unique features for towering deep convective cells that could be used to identify the presence of such cells in storms.

Description: Rain affects wind retrievals from scatterometric measurements of the sea surface. To depict the additional roughness caused by rain on a wind driven surface, we use a ring-wave spectral model. This enables us to analyse the rain effect on K(u) band scatterometric observations from two laboratory experiments. Calculations based on the small perturbation method provide good simulation of scattering measurements for the rain-only case, whereas for combined wind and rain cases, the boundary perturbation method is appropriate.

Description: The return from the ocean surface has a number of uses for airborne meteorological radar. The normalized surface cross section has been used for radar system calibration, estimation of surface winds, and in algorithms for estimating the path-integrated attenuation in rain. However, meteorological radars are normally optimized for observation of distributed targets that fill the resolution volume, and so a point target such as the surface can be poorly sampled, particularly at near-nadir look angles. Sampling the nadir surface return at an insufficient rate results in a negative bias of the estimated cross section. This error is found to be as large as 4 dB using observations from a high-altitude airborne radar. An algorithm for mitigating the error is developed that is based upon the shape of the surface echo and uses the returned signal at the three range gates nearest the peak surface echo.

Description: In this paper, we summarize our initial findings from K(a)- and K(u)-band scatterometers which include: a scaling law for backscattered power as a function of rain rate; a linear superposition model for light rains and low wind speeds; evidence of the importance of scattering from rain-generated ring-waves; and progress towards development of a scattering model for computing normalized radar cross sections from wind and rain roughened water surfaces.

Description: As part of the International Symposium on Assimilation of Observation in Meteorology and Oceanography, a panel discussion was held on the evening of 15 March 1995. The purpose of this panel discussion was focus on what the next major areas of research in data assimilation should be. The panelists had five minutes each for short presentations (Kalman filters, representers, etc.) and this was followed by an open discussion. This preprocessing will require a good understanding of the fine-scale phenomena. Least square methods such as Kalman filters and variational schemes are inefficient estimators of non-Gaussian field such as chemical traces. Regardless of the modeling technique employed (Lagrangian methods seem best), a least squares assimilation scheme will smear fine structure. The estimator of maximum likelihood must be sought, by examination of tracer probability distributions.

Description: Three subjects related to atmospheric water vapor profiling using the 183.3 GHz absorption line are discussed in this paper. First, data acquired by an airborne millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) over ocean surface in the western Pacific are used to estimate three-dimensional (3-D) distribution of atmospheric water vapor. The instrument's radiometric measurements with mixed vertical and horizontal polarizations require modifications to the retrieval algorithm used in the past. It is demonstrated that, after the modifications, the new algorithm can provide adequate retrieval of water vapor profiles, even though the measured data are of mixed polarizations. Next, the retrieved profiles, in terms of water vapor mixing ratio rho (g/kg), are compared with those measured in near concurrence by dropsondes from a research aircraft in the western Pacific and by a ground-based Raman lidar at Wallops Island, Virginia. The ratio of the standard deviation to the mean rho is found to be 0.12 at 0.25 km altitude and gradually degraded to 0.67 at the highest altitude of the retrieval of 10.25 km. Finally, the effect of the "initial guess" relative humidity profile on the final retrieved product is analyzed with respect to the condition for the convergent retrieval. It is found that the effect is minimal if the initial profile is not unrealistically different from the true one. If the initial profile is very different from the true one, the final retrieved product could be subject to a substantial error. Tightening of the convergent condition in the retrieval helped reduce magnitude of the error, but not remove it totally. It is concluded that an initial profile based on climatology is likely to provide most reliable retrieval results.

Description: The need to understand the complementarity of the radar and radiometer is important not only to the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) program but to a growing number of multi-instrumented airborne experiment that combine single or dual-frequency radars with multichannel radiometers. The method of analysis used in this study begins with the derivation of dual-wavelength radar equations for the estimation of a two-parameter drop size distribution (DSD). Defining a "storm model" as the set of parameters that characterize snow density, cloud water, water vapor, and features of the melting layer, then to each storm model there will usually correspond a set of range-profiled drop size distributions that are approximate solutions of the radar equations. To test these solutions, a radiative transfer model is used to compute the brightness temperatures for the radiometric frequencies of interest. A storm model or class of storm models is considered optimum if it provides the best reproduction of the radar and radiometer measurements. Tests of the method are made for stratiform rain using simulated storm models as well as measured airborne data. Preliminary results show that the best correspondence between the measured and estimated radar profiles usually can be obtained by using a moderate snow density (0.1-0.2 g/cu cm), the Maxwell-Garnett mixing formula for partially melted hydrometeors (water matrix with snow inclusions), and low to moderate values of the integrated cloud liquid water (less than 1 kg/sq m). The storm-model parameters that yield the best reproductions of the measured radar reflectivity factors also provide brightness temperatures at 10 GHz that agree well with the measurements. On the other hand, the correspondence between the measured and modeled values usually worsens in going to the higher frequency channels at 19 and 34 GHz. In searching for possible reasons for the discrepancies, It is found that changes in the DSD parameter Mu, the radar constants, or the path-integrated attenuation can affect the high frequency channels significantly. In particular, parameters that cause only modest increases in the median mass diameter of the snow, and which have a minor effect on the radar returns or the low frequency brightness temperature, can produce a strong cooling of the 34 GHz brightness temperature.

Description: Aircraft altimeter and in situ measurements are used to examine relationships between altimeter backscatter and the magnitude of near-surface wind and friction velocities. Comparison of altimeter radar cross section with wind speed is made through the modified Chelton-Wentz algorithm. Improved agreement is found after correcting 10-m winds for both surface current and atmospheric stability. An altimeter friction velocity algorithm is derived based on the wind speed model and an open-ocean drag coefficient. Close agreement between altimeter- and in situ-derived friction velocities is found. For this dataset, quality of the altimeter inversion to surface friction velocity is comparable to that for adjusted winds and clearly better than the inversion to true 10-m wind speed.

Description: We present results that demonstrate the effects of Rayleigh scattering on the 9 retrieval of cloud optical thickness at a visible wavelength (0.66 Am). The sensor-measured radiance at a visible wavelength (0.66 Am) is usually used to infer remotely the cloud optical thickness from aircraft or satellite instruments. For example, we find that without removing Rayleigh scattering effects, errors in the retrieved cloud optical thickness for a thin water cloud layer (T = 2.0) range from 15 to 60%, depending on solar zenith angle and viewing geometry. For an optically thick cloud (T = 10), on the other hand, errors can range from 10 to 60% for large solar zenith angles (0-60 deg) because of enhanced Rayleigh scattering. It is therefore particularly important to correct for Rayleigh scattering contributions to the reflected signal from a cloud layer both (1) for the case of thin clouds and (2) for large solar zenith angles and all clouds. On the basis of the single scattering approximation, we propose an iterative method for effectively removing Rayleigh scattering contributions from the measured radiance signal in cloud optical thickness retrievals. The proposed correction algorithm works very well and can easily be incorporated into any cloud retrieval algorithm. The Rayleigh correction method is applicable to cloud at any pressure, providing that the cloud top pressure is known to within +/- 100 bPa. With the Rayleigh correction the errors in retrieved cloud optical thickness are usually reduced to within 3%. In cases of both thin cloud layers and thick ,clouds with large solar zenith angles, the errors are usually reduced by a factor of about 2 to over 10. The Rayleigh correction algorithm has been tested with simulations for realistic cloud optical and microphysical properties with different solar and viewing geometries. We apply the Rayleigh correction algorithm to the cloud optical thickness retrievals from experimental data obtained during the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) conducted near the Azores in June 1992 and compare these results to corresponding retrievals obtained using 0.88 Am. These results provide an example of the Rayleigh scattering effects on thin clouds and further test the Rayleigh correction scheme. Using a nonabsorbing near-infrared wavelength lambda (0.88 Am) in retrieving cloud optical thickness is only applicable over oceans, however, since most land surfaces are highly reflective at 0.88 Am. Hence successful global retrievals of cloud optical thickness should remove Rayleigh scattering effects when using reflectance measurements at 0.66 Am.

Description: We propose a novel approach to directly invert large-scale anomalous annual net air-sea heat flux from the Topex/Poseidon altimetry data in the North Atlantic. The major advantage of this new approach over the conventional bulk formula approach is that it does not need those climate parameters used in the conventional bulk formula calculation in estimating the large-scale anomalous annual net air-sea heat flux. Comparison with expendable bathythermograph data demonstrates that it is a feasible approach.

Description: Potential evaporation (E(0)) has been found to be useful in many practical applications and in research for setting a reference level for actual evaporation. All previous estimates of regional or global E(0) are based upon empirical formulae using climatologic meteorologic measurements at isolated stations (i.e., point data). However, the Penman-Monteith equation provides a physically based approach for computing E(0), and by comparing 20 different methods of estimating E(0), Jensen et al. (1990) showed that the Penman-Monteith equation provides the most accurate estimate of monthly E(0) from well-watered grass or alfalfa. In the present study, monthly total E(0) for 24 months (January 1987 to December 1988) was calculated from the Penman-Monteith equation, with prescribed albedo of 0.23 and surface resistance of 70 s/m, which are considered to be representative of actively growing well-watered grass covering the ground. These calculations have been done using spatially representative data derived from satellite observations and data assimilation results. Satellite observations were used to obtain solar radiation, fractional cloud cover, air temperature, and vapor pressure, while four-dimensional data assimilation results were used to calculate the aerodynamic resistance. Meteorologic data derived from satellite observations were compared with the surface measurements to provide a measure of accuracy. The accuracy of the calculated E(0) values was assessed by comparing with lysimeter observations for evaporation from well-watered grass at 35 widely distributed locations, while recognizing that the period of present calculations was not concurrent with the lysimeter measurements and the spatial scales of these measurements and calculations are vastly different. These comparisons suggest that the error in the calculated E(0) values may not be exceeded, on average, 20% for any month or location, but are more likely to be about 15%. These uncertainties are difficult to quantify for mountainous areas or locations close to extensive water bodies. The difference between the calculated and observed E(0) is about 5% when all month and locations were considered. Errors are expected to be less than 15% for averages of E(0) over large areas or several months. Further comparisons with lysimeter observations could provide a better appraisal of the calculated values. Global pattern of E(0) was presented, together with zonal average values.

Description: The relationship between gas transfer velocity and rain rate was investigated at NASA's Rain-Sea Interaction Facility (RSIF) using several SF, evasion experiments. During each experiment, a water tank below the rain simulator was supersaturated with SF6, a synthetic gas, and the gas transfer velocities were calculated from the measured decrease in SF6 concentration with time. The results from experiments with IS different rain rates (7 to 10 mm/h) and 1 of 2 drop sizes (2.8 or 4.2 mm diameter) confirm a significant and systematic enhancement of air-water gas exchange by rainfall. The gas transfer velocities derived from our experiment were related to the kinetic energy flux calculated from the rain rate and drop size. The relationship obtained for mono-dropsize rain at the RSIF was extrapolated to natural rain using the kinetic energy flux of natural rain calculated from the Marshall-Palmer raindrop size distribution. Results of laboratory experiments at RSIF were compared to field observations made during a tropical rainstorm in Miami, Florida and show good agreement between laboratory and field data.

Description: The Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) has shown that different land surface models (LSMS) driven by the same meteorological forcing can produce markedly different surface energy and water budgets, even when certain critical aspects of the LSMs (vegetation cover, albedo, turbulent drag coefficient, and snow cover) are carefully controlled. To help explain these differences, the authors devised a monthly water balance model that successfully reproduces the annual and seasonal water balances of the different PILPS schemes. Analysis of this model leads to the identification of two quantities that characterize an LSM's formulation of soil water balance dynamics: (1) the efficiency of the soil's evaporation sink integrated over the active soil moisture range, and (2) the fraction of this range over which runoff is generated. Regardless of the LSM's complexity, the combination of these two derived parameters with rates of interception loss, potential evaporation, and precipitation provides a reasonable estimate for the LSM's simulated annual water balance. The two derived parameters shed light on how evaporation and runoff formulations interact in an LSM, and the analysis as a whole underscores the need for compatibility in these formulations.

Description: As part of its Earth Observation and Climate Monitoring Program NASA will within the next few years place a number of technologically very advanced instruments into Earth orbit. Some of these instruments represent major upgrades for instruments currently in orbit, while others will generate data previously unavailable.

Description: The methodology used in determining empirical rain-rate distributions for Southern New Mexico in the vicinity of White Sands APT site is discussed. The hardware and the software developed to extract rain rate from the rain accumulation data collected at White Sands APT site are described. The accuracy of Crane's Global Model for rain rate predictions is analyzed.

Description: This report describes finite difference computer calculations for the Space Shuttle Launch Pad which predict lightning induced electric currents and electric and magnetic fields caused by a lightning strike to the Lightning Protection System caternary wire. Description of possible lightning threats to Shuttle Payload components together with specifications for protection of these components, result from the calculation of lightning induced electric and magnetic fields inside and outside the during a lightning event. These fields also induce currents and voltages on cables and circuits which may be connected to, or a part of, shuttle payload components. These currents and voltages are also calculated. These threat levels are intended as a guide for designers of payload equipment to specify any shielding and/or lightning protection mitigation which may be required for payload components which are in the process of preparation or being transferred into the Shuttle Orbiter.

Description: We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Description: The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is a multisatellite system designed to measure the Earth's radiation budget. The ERBE data processing system consists of several software packages or sub-systems, each designed to perform a particular task. The primary task of the Inversion Subsystem is to reduce satellite altitude radiances to fluxes at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. To accomplish this, angular distribution models (ADM's) are required. These ADM's are a function of viewing and solar geometry and of the scene type as determined by the ERBE scene identification algorithm which is a part of the Inversion Subsystem. The Inversion Subsystem utilizes 12 scene types which are determined by the ERBE scene identification algorithm. The scene type is found by combining the most probable cloud cover, which is determined statistically by the scene identification algorithm, with the underlying geographic scene type. This Contractor Report describes how the geographic scene type is determined on a monthly basis.

Description: Because ozone provides a shield against harmful ultraviolet radiation, determines the temperature profile in the stratosphere, plays important roles in tropospheric chemistry and climate, and is a health risk near the surface, changes in natural ozone layers at different altitudes and their global impact are being intensively researched. Global ozone coverage is currently provided by passive optical and microwave satellite sensors that cannot deliver high spatial resolution measurements and have particular limitations in the troposphere. Vertical profiling DIfferential Absorption Lidars (DIAL) have shown excellent range-resolved capabilities, but these systems have been large, inefficient, and have required continuous technical attention for long term operations. Recently, successful, autonomous DIAL measurements have been performed from a high-altitude aircraft (LASE - Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment), and a space-qualified aerosol lidar system (LITE - Laser In-space Technology Experiment) has performed well on Shuttle. Based on the above successes, NASA and the Canadian Space Agency are jointly studying the feasibility of developing ORACLE (Ozone Research with Advanced Cooperative Lidar Experiments), an autonomously operated, compact DIAL instrument to be placed in orbit using a Pegasus class launch vehicle.

Description: The TVS on Doppler radar indicates a midtropospheric vortex of Rossby number Ro 1000 that develops in a supercell storm shortly before a tornado descends. This paper shows how the PIO model, which was first described at the 1991 AGU Spring Meeting, could produce a TVS.

Description: 1. NEW PERSPECTIVES ON CLOUD-RADIATIVE FORCING. When the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) produced the first measurements of cloud-radiative forcing, the climate community interpreted the results from a context in which the atmosphere was a single column, strongly coupled to the Earth's surface. 2. NEW PERSPECTIVES ON CLOUD-RADIATION OBSERVATIONS. The climate community is also on the verge of adding a new dimension to its observational capability. In classic thinking about atmospheric circulation and climate, surface pressure was a readily available quantity. As meteorology developed, it was possible to develop quantitative predictions of future weather by bringing together a network of surface pressure observations and then of profiles of temperature and humidity obtained from balloons. 3. ON COMBINING OBSERVATIONS AND THE - ORY. With this new capability, it is natural to seek recognizable features in the observations we make of the Earth. There are techniques we can use to group the remotely sensed data in the individual footprints into objects that we can track. We will present one such image-processing application to radiation budget data, showing how we can interpret the radiation budget data in terms of cloud systems that are organized into systematic patterns of behavior - an ecosystem-like view of cloud behavior.

Description: Our research efforts addressed theoretical work in radiative transfer which focused the following five major items: (1) Development of three dimensional radiative transfer methods; (2) Improvement to and maintenance of radiative transfer codes; (3) Creating new data-sets to define absorption by atmos.gases; (4) Model tests and validations with data from field experiments; and (5) Model application to study climatic impact of, aerosol/clouds.

Description: The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Description: This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) investigation of inconsistencies between pilot reported cloud top heights and weather radar indicated echo top heights (assumed to be cloud tops) as identified by the 45 Weather Squadron (45WS). The objective for this study is to document and understand the differences in echo top characteristics as displayed on both the WSR-88D and WSR-74C radars and cloud top heights reported by the contract weather aircraft in support of space launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), Florida. These inconsistencies are of operational concern since various Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) and Flight Rules (FR) in part describe safe and unsafe conditions as a function of cloud thickness. Some background radar information was presented. Scan strategies for the WSR-74C and WSR-88D were reviewed along with a description of normal radar beam propagation influenced by the Effective Earth Radius Model. Atmospheric conditions prior to and leading up to both launch operations were detailed. Through the analysis of rawinsonde and radar data, atmospheric refraction or bending of the radar beam was identified as the cause of the discrepancies between reported cloud top heights by the contract weather aircraft and those as identified by both radars. The atmospheric refraction caused the radar beam to be further bent toward the Earth than normal. This radar beam bending causes the radar target to be displayed erroneously, with higher cloud top heights and a very blocky or skewed appearance.

Description: Flight tests were conducted in the fall of 1995 off the coast of Wallops Island, Virginia in order to determine characteristics of wake vortices at flight altitudes. A NASA Wallops Flight Facility C130 aircraft equipped with smoke generators produced visible wakes at altitudes ranging from 775 to 2225 m in a variety of atmospheric conditions, orientations (head wind, cross wind), and airspeeds. Meteorological and aircraft parameters were collected continuously from a Langley Research Center OV-10A aircraft as it flew alongside and through the wake vortices at varying distances behind the C130. Meteorological data were also obtained from special balloon observations made at Wallops. Differential GPS capabilities were on each aircraft from which accurate altitude profiles were obtained. Vortices were observed to rise at distances beyond a mile behind the C130. The maximum altitude was 150 m above the C130 in a near neutral atmosphere with significant turbulence. This occurred from large vertical oscillations in the wakes. There were several cases when vortices did not descend after a very short initial period and remained near generation altitude in a variety of moderately stable atmospheres and wind shears.

Description: There are two fundamental goals of this research project. The first and primary goal is to develop a prognostic system which could satisfy the operational weather prediction requirements of the meteorological subsystem within the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The secondary goal is to perform indepth diagnostic analyses of the meteorological conditions affecting the Memphis field experiment held during August 1995. These two goals are interdependent because a thorough understanding of the atmospheric dynamical processes which produced the unique meteorology during the Memphis deployment will help us design a prognostic system for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) which could be utilized to support the meteorological subsystem within AVOSS. The secondary goal occupied much of the first year of the research project. This involved extensive data acquisition and indepth analyses of a spectrum of atmospheric observational data sets. Concerning the primary goal, the first part of the four-stage prognostic system in support of AVOSS entitled: Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) was also formulated and tested in a research environment during 1996. We describe this system, and the three stages which are planned to follow. This first part of a software system designed to meet the primary goal of this research project is relatively inexpensive to implement and run operationally.

Description: Our approach involved validating parameterizations directly against measurements from field programs, and using this validation to tune existing parameterizations and to guide the development of new ones. We have used a single-column model (SCM) to make the link between observations and parameterizations of clouds, including explicit cloud microphysics (e.g., prognostic cloud liquid water used to determine cloud radiative properties). Surface and satellite radiation measurements were used to provide an initial evaluation of the performance of the different parameterizations. The results of this evaluation will then used to develop improved cloud and cloud-radiation schemes, which were tested in GCM experiments.

Description: Developing an algorithm for diagnosing cloud properties over snow- and ice-covered surfaces using satellite radiances from the Advanced Very High resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is addressed.

Description: The effort involved three elements all related to the measurement of rain and clouds using microwaves: (1) Examine recently proposed techniques for measuring rainfall rate and rain water content using data from ground-based radars and the TRMM microwave link in order to develop improved ground validation and radar calibration techniques; (2) Develop dual-polarization, multiple frequency radar techniques for estimating rain water content and cloud water content to interpret the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity factors (Z) measured by the TRMM Precipitation Radar; and (3) Investigate theoretically and experimentally the potential biases in TRMM Z measurements due to spatial inhomogeneities in precipitation. The research succeeded in addressing all of these topics, resulting in several referred publications. addition, the research indicated that the effects of non-Rayleigh statistics resulting from the nature of the precipitation inhomogeneities will probably not result in serious errors for the TRMM radar Measurements, but the TRMM radiometers may be subject to significant bias due to the inhomogeneities.

Description: A finite difference radiative transfer program was developed to handle most anisotropic scattering and reflectance problems encountered in the Earth's atmospheric system. The model has been used to reproduce the radiance received by both satellite and ground based radiation measuring instruments. It accurately replicates the radiance measured by both narrow and wide field-of-view instruments with either narrow or broadband wavelength ranges located on the surface and at satellite altitudes. The output of the finite difference code is compared to the measurements by surface pyranometers and a spectroradiometer aboard a high flying aircraft. The program output is also compared to ERBE measurements aboard the ERBS and NOAA-9 satellites as well as the visible bands aboard the GOES-6 and GOES-7 satellites and AVHRR bands 1 and 2 of the NOAA-9 and NOAA-1 1 satellites. The model is within 0.2 % of the radiance received by pyranometers, within 0.6 % of the ERBE radiances, and within 3 % of the radiances measured by the visible bands of the GOES and NOAA AVHRR radiometers.

Description: Surface observers stationed at 19 U.S. Air Force Bases and Army Air Stations recorded the daytime occurrence of contrails and cloud fraction on an hourly basis for the period April 1993 through April 1994. Each observation uses one of four main categories to report contrails as unobserved, non-persistent, persistent, and indeterminate. Additional classification includes the co-occurrence of cirrus with each report. The data cover much of the continental U.S. including locations near major commercial air routes. The mean annual frequency of occurrence in unobstructed viewing conditions is 13 percent for these sites. Contrail occurrence varied substantially with location and season. Most contrails occurred during the winter months and least during the summer with a pronounced minimum during July. Although nocturnal observations are not available, it appears that the contrails have a diurnal variation that peaks during mid morning over most areas. Contrails were most often observed in areas near major commercial air corridors and least often over areas far removed from the heaviest air traffic. A significant correlation exists between mean contrail frequency and aircraft fuel usage above 7 km suggesting predictive potential for assessing future contrail effects on climate.

Description: This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's NEXRAD Exploitation Task. The objectives of this task are to determine what radar signatures are present prior to and at the time of convection initiation, and to determine radar signatures which will help distinguish whether the ensuing convection will become severe. Radar data from the WSR-88D radar located at NWS Melbourne (WSR-88D/KMLB) were collected between June and September 1995, and 16 convective case studies were analyzed for which the radar was operating during the entire period of interest. All WSR-88D/KMLB products were scrutinized for their utility in detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures. Through process of elimination, it was found that the 0.5 deg reflectivity product with the lowest reflectivity values displayed is the best product to monitor for convection initiation signatures. Seven meteorological features associated with the initiation of deep convection were identified: the Merritt Island and Indian River convergence zones, interlake convergence, horizontal convective rolls, the sea breeze, storm outflow boundaries, and fires. Their reflectivity values ranged from -5 to 20 dBZ. Of the three severe weather phenomena (winds greater than or equal to 50 kts, tornado, 3/4 inch hail), high wind events due to microbursts were most common in the data set. It was found that the values and trends of composite reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid, and core aspect ratio were key indicators of the potential of a cell to produce a microburst. The data were not analyzed for the other two severe weather phenomena because they rarely occurred during the data collection period. This report also includes suggestions for new WSR-88D products, summaries of ongoing research aimed at creating new products, and explicit recommended procedures for detecting convection initiation and severe storm signatures in the radar data using the currently available technology.

Description: Thin, subvisible cirrus (SVC) clouds at the tropical tropopause have been observed by a number of methods in a variety of observational programs, including in situ sampling and aircraft and space-based lidar. Modeling studies suggest that these clouds play an important role in dehydrating tropospheric air as it enters the stratosphere. This is because particles large enough to have significant fall speeds can form under the conditions of slow cooling that are implied by the large horizontal extent of the SVC sheets. The IRA radiation that these clouds absorb, and the upward vertical motion this implies, also make them candidates for a tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere mass transfer mechanism. These sheets were observed on five flights during the Tropical Ozone Transport Experiment (TOTE) by the NASA Langley DIAL lidar aboard NASA's DC-8 research aircraft, operating during December 1995 and February 1996 south of Hawaii (12 S to 21 N). This experiment provided a unique look at these clouds since temperature profiles were available for all the SVC observations. Thus, the observed distributions of SVC's can be compared with the position of the tropopause to establish whether the SVC's are tropospheric or stratospheric. It also allows comparison of TOTE observations with in situ experiments, where water and cloud particle data is available as a function of temperature and potential temperature.

Description: The instrumentation of a new MMS on the DC-8 aircraft is briefly described. Methods to compute and evaluate the turbulent dissipation rate epsilon, based on theory and MMS data, are discussed. Examples of turbulence measurements during encounters of a wake vortex, wave clouds, persistent contrails, mountain are gravity waves are illustrated.

Description: On two days during SUCCESS, the DC-8 sampled wave clouds which formed downstream of the ridges east of the Rocky Mountains. Wave morphology for both flights is deduced from temperature and 3-dimensional wind measurements from the MMS, isentrope profiles from the MTP, and linear perturbation theory. The waves observed on 960430 are smaller and found to be decaying with altitude, while the waves sampled on 960502 are vertically propagating and consist of larger, multiple wave scales. Wave orientations are consistent with the underlying topography and regions of high ice crystal concentration. Updraft velocities were estimated from the derived wave properties and are consistent with MMS vertical winds.

Description: Imagery of coarse resolution, such weather satellite imagery with 1 square kilometer pixels, is increasingly used to monitor dynamic and fragmented types of land surface types, such as scars from recent fires and ponds in wetlands. Accurate estimates of these land cover types at regional to global scales are required to assess the roles of fires and wetlands in global warming, yet difficult to compute when much of the area is accounted for by fragments about the same size as the pixels. In previous research, we found that size distribution of the fragments in several example scenes fit simple two-parameter models and related effects of coarse resolution to errors in area estimates based on pixel counts. We summarize our model based approach to improved area estimations and report on progress to develop accurate areas estimates based on modeling the size distribution of the fragments, including analysis of size distributions on an expanded set of maps developed from digital imagery.

Description: The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite is scheduled for launch in the Fall of 1997 aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). A surface measurement pilot study has been initiated in a 37-km region near Richmond, VA, for comparison with the CERES surface flux retrievals. Two-minute averaged upwelling and downwelling surface fluxes over a mostly deciduous forest have been recorded daily for the past two years, and show a broadband, shortwave daily albedo increase during the summer months. Evidence is presented that indicates vegetational changes in the forest as the overriding mechanism for this change. Upwelling flux measured over the entire region by helicopter-mounted instrumentation has been processed for four solar seasons. Future plans include the installation of four more albedo surface sites over various types of vegetation throughout the region.

Description: The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Description: Participation in the SUCCESS project primarily involved development and deployment of specific instruments for characterizing jet aircraft exhaust emissions as particulates and their subsequent evolution as contrail particles, either liquid or solid, as cirrus. Observations can be conveniently considered in two categories - close or distant from the aircraft. Thus close to the aircraft the exhaust is mixing through the engine turbulence with a much drier and colder environment and developing water/ ice supersaturation along the trail depending on circumstances (near field), whereas distant from the aircraft (far field) the exhaust has cooled essentially to ambient temperature, the turbulence has decayed and any particle growth or evaporation is controlled by the prevailing ambient conditions. Intermediate between these two regions the main aircraft vortices form (one on each side of the aircraft) which tend to inhibit mixing under some conditions, a region extending from a few aircraft lengths to sometimes a hundred times this distance. Our approach to the problem lay in experience gained in characterizing the smoke from hydrocarbon combustion in terms of its cloud forming properties and its potential influence on the radiation properties of the smoke and subsequent cloud from the viewpoint of reduction (absorbtion and scattering ) of solar radiation flux leading to significant global cooling (Hudson et al 1991; Hallett and Hudson 1991). Engine exhaust contains a much smaller proportion of the fuel carbon than is sometimes present in ordinary combustion (less than 0.01% compared with 10%) and influences condensation in quite different ways, to be characterized by the Cloud Condensation Nucleus, CCN - supersaturation spectrum. The transition to ice is to be related to the dilution of solution droplets to freeze by homogeneous nucleation at temperatures somewhat below -40C (Pueschel et al 1998). The subsequent growth of ice particles depends critically on temperature, supersaturation and to some extent pressure, as is demonstrated in an NSF funded project being carried out in parallel with the work reported here. As will be discussed below, nucleation processes themselves and also exhaust impurities also influence the growth of ice particles and may control some aspects of growth of ice in contrails. Instrumentation was designed to give insight into these questions and to be flown on the NASA DC- 8 as a platform. In addition a modest program was undertaken to investigate the properties of laboratory produced smoke produced under controlled conditions from the viewpoint of forming both CCN and CN. The composition of the smoke could inferred from a thermal characterization technique; larger particles were captured by formvar replicator for detailed analysis; ice particles were captured and evaporated in flight on a new instrument, the cloudscope, to give their mass, density and impurity content.

Description: Our major accomplishments during Year 1 were: Development of aerosol and crystal collection techniques. Development of single-particle chemical characterization techniques. Modification of system design for DC-8 and initial testing. Our major accomplishments during Year 2 were: Completion of system design and proof-of-concept experiments. Participation in SUCCESS mission. Reporting of theoretical and laboratory findings in the scientific literature. Reporting of initial SUCCESS results at scientific meetings. Our major accomplishments during Year 3 were: Data reduction and submission of all SUCCESS data to the archive. Participation in SUCCESS data comparison workshops. Reporting of SUCCESS results at the AEAP Meeting. Organization of CN counter intercomparison workshop. Preparation of three manuscripts submitted to the GRL SUCCESS Special Issue.

Description: Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) regarding heating rates, energetics and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Description: Using an atmospheric general circulation model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM2), the effects on climate sensitivity of several different cloud radiation parameterizations have been investigated. In addition to the original cloud radiation scheme of CCM2, four parameterizations incorporating prognostic cloud water were tested: one version with prescribed cloud radiative properties and three other versions with interactive cloud radiative properties. The authors' numerical experiments employ perpetual July integrations driven by globally constant sea surface temperature forcings of two degrees, both positive and negative. A diagnostic radiation calculation has been applied to investigate the partial contributions of high, middle, and low cloud to the total cloud radiative forcing, as well as the contributions of water vapor, temperature, and cloud to the net climate feedback. The high cloud net radiative forcing is positive, and the middle and low cloud net radiative forcings are negative. The total net cloud forcing is negative in all of the model versions. The effect of interactive cloud radiative properties on global climate sensitivity is significant. The net cloud radiative feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between the schemes with interactive cloud radiative properties and the schemes with specified properties. The increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn to negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative schemes, while the decrease in cloud amount simply produces a positive shortwave feedback for the schemes with a specified cloud water path. For the longwave feedbacks, the decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while for the other cases, the longwave feedback is positive. These cloud radiation parameterizations are empirically validated by using a single-column diagnostic model. together with measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Combined Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The inclusion of prognostic cloud water produces a notable improvement in the realism of the parameterizations, as judged by these observations. Furthermore, the observational evidence suggests that deriving cloud radiative properties from cloud water content and microphysical characteristics is a promising route to further improvement.

Description: The algorithm-development activities at USF during the second half of 1997 have concentrated on data collection and theoretical modeling. Six abstracts were submitted for presentation at the AGU conference in San Diego, California during February 9-13, 1998. Four papers were submitted to JGR and Applied Optics for publication.

Description: This paper examines the relative impacts on grid-averaged longwave flux transmittance (emittance) for Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) cloud fields arising from horizontal variability of optical depth tau and cloud sides, First, using fields of Landsat-inferred tau and a Monte Carlo photon transport algorithm, it is demonstrated that mean all-sky transmittances for 3D variable MBL clouds can be computed accurately by the conventional method of linearly weighting clear and cloudy transmittances by their respective sky fractions. Then, the approximations of decoupling cloud and radiative properties and assuming independent columns are shown to be adequate for computation of mean flux transmittance. Since real clouds have nonzero geometric thicknesses, cloud fractions A'(sub c) presented to isotropic beams usually exceed the more familiar vertically projected cloud fractions A(sub c). It is shown, however, that when A(sub c)less than or equal to 0.9, biases for all-sky transmittance stemming from use of A(sub c) as opposed to A'(sub c) are roughly 2-5 times smaller than, and opposite in sign to, biases due to neglect of horizontal variability of tau. By neglecting variable tau, all-sky transmittances are underestimated often by more than 0.1 for A(sub c) near 0.75 and this translates into relative errors that can exceed 40% (corresponding errors for all-sky emittance are about 20% for most values of A(sub c). Thus, priority should be given to development of General Circulation Model (GCM) parameterizations that account for the effects of horizontal variations in unresolved tau, effects of cloud sides are of secondary importance. On this note, an efficient stochastic model for computing grid-averaged cloudy-sky flux transmittances is furnished that assumes that distributions of tau, for regions comparable in size to GCM grid cells, can be described adequately by gamma distribution functions. While the plane-parallel, homogeneous model underestimates cloud transmittance by about an order of magnitude when 3D variable cloud transmittances are less than or equal to 0.2 and by approx. 20% to 100% otherwise, the stochastic model reduces these biases often by more than 80%.

Description: The three primary goals have been to: (1) increase our contrail remote sensing database collected from the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (FARS) by expanding our Project FIRE Extended Time Observations (ETO) program to include contrail persistence studies: (2) continue our retrospective analyses of the statistical, physical, and radiative properties of contrails derived from our 10-year ETO cirrus cloud dataset to examine their potential direct impact for regional climate change: and, (3) prepare our mobile remote sensing systems and participate in the SUCCESS field campaign from the DOE Southern Great Plains ARM CART site.

Description: The WINter Cloud Experiment (WINCE) was directed and supported by personnel from the University of Wisconsin in January and February. Data sets of good quality were collected by the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and other instruments on the NASA ER2; they will be used to develop and validate cloud detection and cloud property retrievals over winter scenes (especially over snow). Software development focused on utilities needed for all of the UW product executables; preparations for Version 2 software deliveries were almost completed. A significant effort was made, in cooperation with SBRS and MCST, in characterizing and understanding MODIS PFM thermal infrared performance; crosstalk in the longwave infrared channels continues to get considerable attention.

Description: During the SUCCESS mission, several measurements were made which should improve our understanding of ice nucleation processes in cirrus clouds. Temperature and water vapor concentration were made with a variety of instruments on the NASA DC-8. These observations should provide accurate upper tropospheric humidities. In particular, we will evaluate what humidities are required for ice nucleation. Preliminary results suggest that substantial supersaturations frequently exist in the upper troposphere. The leading-edge region of wave-clouds (where ice nucleation occurs) was sampled extensively at temperatures near -40 and -60C. These observations should give precise information about conditions required for ice nucleation. In addition, we will relate the observed aerosol composition and size distributions to the ice formation observed to evaluate the role of soot or mineral particles on ice nucleation. As an alternative technique for determining what particles act as ice nuclei, numerous samples of aerosols inside ice crystals were taken. In some cases, large numbers of aerosols were detected in each crystal, indicating that efficient scavenging occurred. Analysis of aerosols in ice crystals when only one particle per crystal was detected should help with the ice nucleation issue. Direct measurements of the ice nucleating activity of ambient aerosols drawn into airborne cloud chambers were also made. Finally, measurements of aerosols and ice crystals in contrails should indicate whether aircraft exhaust soot particles are effective ice nuclei.

Description: The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is an instrument designed specifically to detect and locate lightning during either daytime or nighttime. A predecessor of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS), it has been in orbit for over two and half years. During this time global lightning activity has been observed on a quasi continuous basis. During this time an extensive effort has been under way to quantify and verify the OTD performance. OTD data has been compared with both the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) system at KSC. Results of these intercomparisons will be presented as well as estimates of OTD overall performance parameters. In addition, one year of OTD results will be presented showing the strong influence of the sun on global lightning activity. A month by month collage of global lightning maps will be used to demonstrate both the first order forcing and more subtle influences. Finally, initial results form the Lightning Imaging Sensor, an instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be presented.

Description: We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Description: Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface heat fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global heat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. We use several GEWEX pre-EOS data sets derived from satellite data to assess interannual divergent flow anomalies in the NCEP, GSFC, and GSFC DAO analyse. Among the data sets are monthly, 2.5 degree gridded precipitation (MSU and SSM/I-based), TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. Most of these data sets can be considered as independent of the reanalysis fields. We focus largely on the period 1987-1989 encompassing a strong El Nino / la Nina couplet. Consequently we emphasize interannual changes rather than climatological aspects of the reanalyses. In the processes of this study we use simple integral constraints enforced through the satellite-derived data sets to derive corrections to the divergent circulation produced from the reanalyses. We examine the implications of these corrections in describing how perturbations to the tropical heat balance evolve during a warm / cool couplet. In particular the perturbations to the planetary scale water vapor transport, and the resulting changes in TOA and surface radiative fluxes are considered.

Description: Electrostatic field measurements are fundamental to the study of thunderstorm electrification, thundercloud charge structure, and the determination of the locations and magnitudes of charges deposited by lightning. Such measurements can also be used to warn of impending electrical hazards. In this work effort, we offer an alternate way of detecting atmospheric electric fields. Our approach involves the use of anisotropic electro-optic crystals.

Description: Polarization is more sensitive than intensity to cloud microstructure such as the particle size and shape, and multiple scattering does not wash out features in polarization as effectively as it does in the intensity. Polarization measurements, particularly in the near IR, are potentially a valuable tool for cloud identification and for studies of the microphysics of clouds. The POLDER instrument is designed to provide wide field of view bidirectional images in polarized light. During the ASTEX-SOFIA campaign on June 12th, 1992, over the Atlantic Ocean (near the Azores Islands), images of homogeneous thick stratocumulus cloud fields were acquired. During the EUCREX'94 (April, 1994) campaign, the POLDER instrument was flying over the region of Brittany (France), taking observations of cirrus clouds. This study involves model studies and data analysis of POLDER observations. Both models and data analysis show that POLDER can be used to detect cloud thermodynamic phases. Model results show that polarized reflection in the Lamda =0.86 micron band is sensitive to cloud droplet sizes but not to cloud optical thickness. Comparison between model and data analysis reveals that cloud droplet sizes during ASTEX are about 5 microns, which agrees very well with the results of in situ measurements (4-5 microns). Knowing the retrieved cloud droplet sizes, the total reflected intensity of the POLDER measurements then can be used to retrieve cloud optical thickness. The close agreement between data analysis and model results during ASTEX also suggests the homogeneity of the cloud layer during that campaign.

Description: This study assesses the quality of estimates of climate variability in moisture flux and convergence from three assimilated data sets: two are reanalysis products generated at the Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEPJNCAR), and the third consists of the operational analyses generated at the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). The regions under study (the United States Great Plains, the Indian monsoon region, and Argentina east of the Andes) are characterized by frequent low level jets (LLJs) and other interannual low level wind variations tied to the large-scale flow. While the emphasis is on the reanalysis products, the comparison with the operational product is provided to help assess the improvements gained from a fixed analysis system. All three analyses capture the main moisture flux anomalies associated with selected extreme climate (drought and flood) events during the period 1985-93. The correspondence is strongest over the Great Plains and weakest over the Indian monsoon region reflecting differences in the observational coverage. For the reanalysis products, the uncertainties in the lower tropospheric winds is by far the dominant source of the discrepancies in the moisture flux anomalies in the middle latitude regions. Only in the Indian Monsoon region, where interannual variability in the low level winds is comparatively small, does the moisture bias play a substantial role. In contrast, the comparisons with the operational product show differences in moisture which are comparable torhe differences in the wind in all three regions. Compared with the fluxes, the anomalous moisture convergences show substantially larger differences among the three products. The best agreement occurs over the Great Plains region where all three products show vertically-integrated moisture convergence during the floods and divergence during the drought with differences in magnitude of about 25%. The reanalysis products, in particular, show good agreement in depicting the different roles of the mean flow and transients during the flood and drought periods. Differences between the three products in the other two regions exceed 100% reflecting differences in the low level jets and the large scale circulation patterns. The operational product tends to have locally larger amplitude convergence fields which average out in area-mean budgets: this appears to be at least in part due to errors in the surface pressure fields and aliasing from the higher resolution of the original ECMWF fields. On average, the reanalysis products show higher coherence with each other than with the operational product in the estimates of interannual variability. This result is less clear in the Indian monsoon region where differences in the input observations appears to be an important factor. The agreement in the anomalous convergence patterns is, however, still rather poor even over relatively data dense regions such as the United States Great Plains. These differences are attributed to deficiencies in the assimilating GCM's representations of the planetary boundary layer and orography, and a global observing system incapable of resolving the highly confined low level winds associated with the climate anomalies.

Description: From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons-Violet and Tom-as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction, and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds. We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved, but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sunsynchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter.

Description: Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Description: This research work is a joint effort between research groups at the Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Virginia Tech University, Georgia Institute of Technology, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Texas A&M University. It has been jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In this research, a detailed tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model that predicts oxidant concentrations as well as concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols has been coupled to a general circulation model that distinguishes between cloud water mass and cloud droplet number. The coupled model system has been first validated and then used to estimate the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfur emissions. Both the direct radiative impact of the aerosols and their indirect impact through their influence on cloud droplet number are represented by distinguishing between sulfuric acid vapor and fresh and aged sulfate aerosols, and by parameterizing cloud droplet nucleation in terms of vertical velocity and the number concentration of aged sulfur aerosols. Natural sulfate aerosols, dust, and carbonaceous and nitrate aerosols and their influence on the radiative impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, through competition as cloud condensation nuclei, will also be simulated. Parallel simulations with and without anthropogenic sulfur emissions are performed for a global domain. The objectives of the research are: To couple a state-of-the-art tropospheric aerosol-chemistry model with a global climate model. To use field and satellite measurements to evaluate the treatment of tropospheric chemistry and aerosol physics in the coupled model. To use the coupled model to simulate the radiative (and ultimately climatic) impacts of anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

Description: The South East coastal region experiences hurricane threat for almost six months in every year. To improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts, meteorologists would need the storm paths of both the present and the past. A hurricane path can be established if we could identify the correct position of the storm at different times right from its birth to the end. We propose a method based on both spatial and temporal image correlations to locate the position of a storm from satellite images. During the hurricane season, the satellite images of the Atlantic ocean near the equator are examined for the hurricane presence. This is accomplished in two steps. In the first step, only segments with more than a particular value of cloud cover are selected for analysis. Next, we apply image processing algorithms to test the presence of a hurricane eye in the segment. If the eye is found, the coordinate of the eye is recorded along with the time stamp of the segment. If the eye is not found, we examine adjacent segments for the existence of hurricane eye. It is probable that more than one hurricane eye could be found from different segments of the same period. Hence, the above process is repeated till the entire potential area for hurricane birth is exhausted. The subsequent/previous position of each hurricane eye will be searched in the appropriate adjacent segments of the next/previous period to mark the hurricane path. The temporal coherence and spatial coherence of the images are taken into account by our scheme in determining the segments and the associated periods required for analysis.

Description: Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection (MCC) consists of mesoscale cloud patches separated by narrow clear regions. Strong radiative cooling occurs at the cloud top. A dry two-dimensional Bousinesq model is used to study the effects of cloud-top cooling on convection. Wide updrafts and narrow downdrafts are used to indicate the asymmetric circulations associated with the mesoscale cloud patches. Based on the numerical results, a conceptual model was constructed to suggest a mechanism for the formation of closed MCC over cool ocean surfaces. A new method to estimate the radioative and evaporative cooling in the entrainment layer of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer has been developed. The method was applied to a set of Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) results and to a set of tethered-balloon data obtained during FIRE. We developed a statocumulus-capped marine mixed layer model which includes a parameterization of drizzle based on the use of a predicted Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) number concentration. We have developed, implemented, and tested a very elaborate new stratiform cloudiness parameterization for use in GCMs. Finally, we have developed a new, mechanistic parameterization of the effects of cloud-top cooling on the entrainment rate.

Description: The atmospheric general circulation models which are being used as components of climate models rely on their boundary layer parameterizations to produce realistic simulations of the surface turbulent fluxes of sensible heat. moisture. and momentum: of the boundary-layer depth over which these fluxes converge: of boundary layer cloudiness: and of the interactions of the boundary layer with the deep convective clouds that grow upwards from it. Two current atmospheric general circulation models are used as examples to show how these requirements are being addressed: these are version 3 of the Community Climate Model. which has been developed at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. and the Colorado State University atmospheric general circulation model. The formulations and results of both models are discussed. Finally, areas for future research are suggested.

Description: Examine global cloud climatologies for evidence of human caused changes in cloud cover and their effect on the Earth's heat budget through radiative processes. Quantify climatological changes in global cloud cover and estimate their effect on the Earth's heat budget. Improve our knowledge of global cloud cover and its changes through the merging of several satellite data sets.

Description: In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

Description: Cloud microphysical parameterizations have attracted a great deal of attention in recent years due to their effect on cloud radiative properties and cloud-related hydrological processes in large-scale models. The parameterization of cirrus particle size has been demonstrated as an indispensable component in the climate feedback analysis. Therefore, global-scale, long-term observations of cirrus particle sizes are required both as a basis of and as a validation of parameterizations for climate models. While there is a global scale, long-term survey of water cloud droplet sizes (Han et al. 1994), there is no comparable study for cirrus ice crystals. In this paper a near-global survey of cirrus ice crystal sizes is conducted using ISCCP satellite data analysis. The retrieval scheme uses phase functions based upon hexagonal crystals calculated by a ray tracing technique. The results show that global mean values of D(e) are about 60 micro-m. This study also investigates the possible reasons for the significant difference between satellite retrieved effective radii (approx. 60 micro-m) and aircraft measured particle sizes (approx. 200 micro-m) during the FIRE I IFO experiment. They are (1) vertical inhomogeneity of cirrus particle sizes; (2) lower limit of the instrument used in aircraft measurements; (3) different definitions of effective particle sizes; and (4) possible inappropriate phase functions used in satellite retrieval.

Description: Aerosols affect climate through direct and indirect effects. The direct effect of aerosols (e.g., sulfates) includes reflection of sunlight back toward space and for some aerosols (e.g., smoke particles), absorption in the atmosphere; both effects cool the Earth's surface. The indirect effect of aerosols refers to the modification of cloud microphysical properties, thereby affecting the radiation balance. Higher concentrations of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) generally produce higher concentrations of cloud droplets, which are also usually assumed to lead to decreased cloud droplet sizes. The result is an increase in cloud albedo, producing a net radiative cooling, opposite to the warming caused by greenhouse gases (Charlson et al. 1992). The change in clouds that is directly induced by an increase of aerosol concentration is an increase of cloud droplet number density, N; but is is usually assumed that cloud droplet size decreases as if the water mass density Liquid Water Content (LWC) were constant. There is actually no reason why this should be the case. Shifting the cloud droplet size distribution to more numerous smaller droplets can change the relative rates of condensational and coalescence growth, leading to different LWC (e.g., Rossow 1978). Moreover, the resulting change in cloud albedo is usually ascribed to more efficient scattering by smaller droplets, when in fact it is the increase in droplet number density (assuming constant LWC) that produces the most important change in cloud albedo: e.g., holding N constant and decreasing the droplet size would actually decrease the scattering cross-section and, thus, the albedo much more than it is increased by the increased scattering efficiency.

Description: Atmospheric mixing ratios of approximately 10(-5 +/- 1) for ammonia on the early Earth would have been sufficient, through the resulting greenhouse warming, to counteract the temperature effects of the faint early sun. One argument against such model atmospheres has been the short time scale for ammonia photodissociation by solar ultraviolet light. Here it is shown that ultraviolet absorption by steady-state amounts of high-altitude organic solids produced from methane photolysis may have shielded ammonia sufficiently that ammonia resupply rates were able to maintain surface temperatures above freezing.

Description: A criterion based on the SSM/I observations is developed to discriminate rain into convective and stratiform types. This criterion depends on the microwave polarization properties of the flat melting snow particles that fall slowly in the stratiform clouds. Utilizing this criterion and some spatial and temporal characteristics of hydrometeors in TOGA-COARE area revealed by ship borne radars, we have developed an algorithm to retrieve convective and stratiform rain rate from SSM/I data.

Description: A unique complement of passive and active microwave imaging and sensing instruments for observing ocean surface emission and scattering signatures were integrated onto the NASA Wallops Flight Facility's Orion P-3B aircraft (N426NA) for the purpose of studying the signature of ocean surface winds. The complement included: (1) a, four-band (X, K, Ka, and W) tri-polarimetric scanning radiometer (PSR), (2) a C-band ocean surface scatterometer (CSCAT), (3) a Ka-band conical-scanning polarimetric radiometer (KASPR), (4) a nadir-viewing Ka-band polarimetric radiometer, (KAPOL), (5) a 21- and 31-GHz zenith-viewing cloud and water vapor radiometer (CWVR), and (6) a radar ocean wave spectrometer (ROWS). The above Ocean Winds Imaging (OWI) complement was flown during January-March, 1997 over the Labrador Sea. Conically-scanned brightness temperature and backscatter imagery were observed over open ocean for a variety of wind speeds and cloud conditions. Presented herein are the results of a preliminary intercomparison of data from several of the OWI instruments.

Description: This paper describes an outline of the algorithm that estimates the instantaneous profiles of the true radar reflectivity factor and rainfall rate from the radar reflectivity profiles observed by the Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard the TRMM satellite. The major challenge of the algorithm lies in the correction of rain attenuation with the non-uniform beam filling effect. The algorithm was tested with synthetic data and the result is shown.

Description: One of the TRMM radar products of interest is the monthly-averaged rain rates over 5 x 5 degree cells. Clearly, the most directly way of calculating these and similar statistics is to compute them from the individual estimates made over the instantaneous field of view of the Instrument (4.3 km horizontal resolution). An alternative approach is the use of a threshold method. It has been established that over sufficiently large regions the fractional area above a rain rate threshold and the area-average rain rate are well correlated for particular choices of the threshold [e.g., Kedem et al., 19901]. A straightforward application of this method to the TRMM data would consist of the conversion of the individual reflectivity factors to rain rates followed by a calculation of the fraction of these that exceed a particular threshold. Previous results indicate that for thresholds near or at 5 mm/h, the correlation between this fractional area and the area-average rain rate is high. There are several drawbacks to this approach, however. At the TRMM radar frequency of 13.8 GHz the signal suffers attenuation so that the negative bias of the high resolution rain rate estimates will increase as the path attenuation increases. To establish a quantitative relationship between fractional area and area-average rain rate, an independent means of calculating the area-average rain rate is needed such as an array of rain gauges. This type of calibration procedure, however, is difficult for a spaceborne radar such as TRMM. To estimate a statistic other than the mean of the distribution requires, in general, a different choice of threshold and a different set of tuning parameters.

Description: Dual frequency methods are one of the most useful ways to estimate precise rainfall rates. However, there are some difficulties in applying this method to ground based radars because of the existence of a blind zone and possible error in the radar calibration. Because of these problems, supplemental observations such as rain gauges or satellite link estimates of path integrated attenuation (PIA) are needed. This study shows how to estimate rainfall rate with a ground based dual frequency radar with rain gauge and satellite link data. Applications of this method to stratiform rainfall is also shown. This method is compared with single wavelength method. Data were obtained from a dual frequency (10 GHz and 35 GHz) multiparameter radar radiometer built by the Communications Research Laboratory (CRL), Japan, and located at NASA/GSFC during the spring of 1997. Optical rain gauge (ORG) data and broadcasting satellite signal data near the radar t location were also utilized for the calculation.

Description: A revised (phase 2) single-channel algorithm for aerosol optical thickness, tau(sup A)(sub SAT), retrieval over oceans from radiances in channel 1 (0.63 microns) of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has been implemented at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service for the NOAA 14 satellite launched December 30, 1994. It is based on careful validation of its operational predecessor (phase 1 algorithm), implemented for NOAA 14 in 1989. Both algorithms scale the upward satellite radiances in cloud-free conditions to aerosol optical thickness using an updated radiative transfer model of the ocean and atmosphere. Application of the phase 2 algorithm to three matchup Sun-photometer and satellite data sets, one with NOAA 9 in 1988 and two with NOAA 11 in 1989 and 1991, respectively, show systematic error is less than 10%, with a random error of sigma(sub tau) approx. equal 0.04. First results of tau(sup A)(sub SAT) retrievals from NOAA 14 using the phase 2 algorithm, and from checking its internal consistency, are presented. The potential two-channel (phase 3) algorithm for the retrieval of an aerosol size parameter, such as the Junge size distribution exponent, by adding either channel 2 (0.83 microns) from the current AVHRR instrument, or a 1.6-microns channel to be available on the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and the NOAA-KLM satellites by 1997 is under investigation. The possibility of using this additional information in the retrieval of a more accurate estimate of aerosol optical thickness is being explored.

Description: The coverage and quality of remotely sensed upper-tropospheric moisture parameters have improved considerably with the deployment of a new generation of operational geostationary meteorological satellites: GOES-8/9 and GMS-5. The GOES-8/9 water vapor imaging capabilities have increased as a result of improved radiometric sensitivity and higher spatial resolution. The addition of a water vapor sensing channel on the latest GMS permits nearly global viewing of upper-tropospheric water vapor (when joined with GOES and Meteosat) and enhances the commonality of geostationary meteorological satellite observing capabilities. Upper-tropospheric motions derived from sequential water vapor imagery provided by these satellites can be objectively extracted by automated techniques. Wind fields can be deduced in both cloudy and cloud-free environments. In addition to the spatially coherent nature of these vector fields, the GOES-8/9 multispectral water vapor sensing capabilities allow for determination of wind fields over multiple tropospheric layers in cloud-free environments. This article provides an update on the latest efforts to extract water vapor motion displacements over meteorological scales ranging from subsynoptic to global. The potential applications of these data to impact operations, numerical assimilation and prediction, and research studies are discussed.

Description: The effort involved three elements all related to the measurement of rain and clouds using microwaves: (1) Examine recently proposed techniques for measuring rainfall rate and rain water content using data from ground-based radars and the TRMM microwave link in order to develop improved ground validation and radar calibration techniques; (2) Develop dual-polarization, multiple frequency radar techniques for estimating rain water content and cloud water content to interpret the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity factors (Z) measured by the TRMM Precipitation Radar; and (3) Investigate theoretically and experimentally the potential biases in TRMM Z measurements due to spatial inhomogeneities in precipitation. The research succeeded in addressing all of these topics, resulting in several refereed publications. In addition, the research indicated that the effects of non-Rayleigh statistics resulting from the nature of the precipitation inhomogeneities will probably not result in serious errors for the TRMM radar measurements, but the TRMM radiometers may be subject to significant bias due to the inhomogeneities.

Description: Jet contrails are an important subset of cirrus clouds in the atmosphere, and thin cirrus are thought to enhance the greenhouse effect due to their semi-transparent nature. They are nearly transparent to the solar energy reaching the surface, but they reduce the planetary emission to space due to their cold ambient temperatures. Having 'seeded' the environment, contrails often elongate and widen into cirrus-like features. However, there is great uncertainty regarding the impact of contrails on surface temperature and precipitation. With increasing numbers of subsonic aircraft operating in the upper troposphere, there is the possibility of increasing cloudiness which could lead to changes in the radiation balance. Automatic detection and seg- mentation of jet contrails in satellite imagery is important because (1) it is impractical to compile a contrail climatology by hand, and (2) with the segmented images it will be possible to retrieve contrail physical properties such as optical thickness, effective ice crystal diameter and emissivity.

Description: This is the first semi-annual report for NAS5-97039 summarizing work performed for January 1997 through June 1997. Work in this project is related to NAS1-20666, also funded by NASA ACMAP. The work funded in this project also benefits from work at AER associated with the AER three-dimensional isentropic transport model funded by NASA AEAP and the AER two-dimensional climate-chemistry model (co-funded by Department of Energy). The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry.

Description: The atmospheric radiative transfer algorithms used in most global general circulation models underestimate the globally-averaged solar energy absorbed by cloudy atmospheres by up to 25 W/sq m. The origin of this anomalous absorption is not yet known, but it has been attributed to a variety of sources including oversimplified or missing physical processes in these models, uncertainties in the input data, and even measurement errors. Here, a sophisticated atmospheric radiative transfer model was used to provide a more comprehensive description of the physical processes that contribute to the absorption of solar radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. We found that the amount of sunlight absorbed by a cloudy atmosphere is inversely proportional to the solar zenith angle and the cloud top height, and directly proportional to the cloud optical depth and the water vapor concentration within the clouds. Atmospheres with saturated, optically-thick, low clouds absorbed about 12 W/sq m more than clear atmospheres. This accounts for about 1/2 to 1/3 of the anomalous ab- sorption. Atmospheres with optically thick middle and high clouds usually absorb less than clear atmospheres. Because water vapor is concentrated within and below the cloud tops, this absorber is most effective at small solar zenith angles. An additional absorber that is distributed at or above the cloud tops is needed to produce the amplitude and zenith angle dependence of the observed anomalous absorption.

Description: As part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave Experiment (ARESE), we have obtained and analyzed measurements made from collocated aircraft of the absorption of solar radiation within the atmospheric column between the two aircraft. The measurements were taken during October 1995 at the ARM site in Oklahoma. Relative to a theoretical radiative transfer model, we find no evidence for excess solar absorption in the clear atmosphere and significant evidence for its existence in the cloudy atmosphere. This excess cloud solar absorption appears to occur in both visible (0.224-0.68 microns) and near-infrared (0.68-3.30 microns) spectral regions, although not at 0.5 microns for the visible contribution, and it is shown to be true absorption rather than an artifact of sampling errors caused by measuring three-dimensional clouds.

Description: The European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS-1) was launched in July 1991 and contained several instruments for observing the Earth's ocean including a wind scatterometer. The scatterometer measurements were processed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). JPL reprocessed (Freilich and Dunbar, 1992) the ERS-1 backscatter measurements to produced a 'value added' data set that contained the ESA wind vector as well as a set of up to four ambiguities. These ambiguities were further processed using a maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) and a median filter to produce a 'selected vector.' This report describes a technique developed to produce time-averaged wind field estimates with their expected errors using only scatterometer wind vectors. The processing described in this report involved extracting regions of interest from the data tapes, checking the quality and creating the wind field estimate. This analysis also includes the derivation of biweekly average wind vectors over the North Pacific Ocean at a resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. This was done with an optimal average algorithm temporally and an over-determined biharmonic spline spatially. There have been other attempts at creating gridded wind files from ERS-1 winds, e.g., kriging techniques (Bentamy et al., 1996) and successive corrections schemes (Tang and Liu, 1996). There are several inherent problems with the ERS-1 scatterometer. Since this is a multidisciplinary mission, the satellite is flown in different orbits optimized for each phase of the mission. The scatterometer also shares several sub-systems with the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and cannot be operated while the SAR is in operation. The scatterometer is also a single-sided instrument and only measures backscatter along the right side of the satellite. The processing described here generates biweekly wind maps during the wktwo years analysis period regardless of the satellite orbit or missing data.

Description: Plasma outflows, escaping from Earth through the high-altitude polar caps into the tail of the magnetosphere, have been observed with a xenon plasma source instrument to reduce the floating potential of the POLAR spacecraft. The largest component of H(+) flow, along the local magnetic field (30 to 60 kilometers per second), is faster than predicted by theory. The flows contain more O(+) than predicted by theories of thermal polar wind, but also have elevated ion temperatures. These plasma outflows contribute to the plasmas energized in the elongated nightside tail of the magnetosphere, creating auroras, substorms, and storms. They also constitute an appreciable loss of terrestrial water dissociation products into space.

Description: Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Description: A major milestone was accomplished with the delivery of all five University of Wisconsin MODIS Level 2 science production software packages to the Science Data Support Team (SDST) for integration. These deliveries were the culmination of months of design and testing, with most of the work focused on tasks peripheral to the actual science contained in the code. LTW hosted a MODIS infrared calibration workshop in September. Considerable progress has been made by MCST, with help from LTW, in refining the calibration algorithm, and in identifying and characterization outstanding problems. Work continues on characterizing the effects of non-blackbody earth surfaces on atmospheric profile retrievals and modeling radiative transfer through cirrus clouds.

Description: The linestrengths for 40 absorption lines of H2 16-O water vapor that were located between 813 and 820 nm were measured; most of these lines were selected for their potential usefulness in laser remote measurements of atmospheric humidity using the differential absorption lidar technique. The air-induced pressure-broadening coefficients were also measured for 32 of these lines and the air-induced pressure shift coefficients were measured for 29 lines. These spectroscopic parameters were derived from spectra obtained with an AlGaAs diode laser and two long-path absorption cells. Collisional narrowing effects were observed and were accurately described by a Galatry profile. Comparisons were made with previous experimental work or theoretical calculations as available.

Description: Measurements from the FIRE 1991 cirrus cloud field experiment in the central United States are presented and analyzed. The first part focuses on cirrus microphysical properties. Aircraft 2D-probe in situ data at different cloud altitudes were evaluated for cirrus cases on four different days. Also presented are simultaneous data samples from balloonborne videosondes. Only these balloonsondes could detect the smaller crystals. Their data suggest (at least for midlatitude altitudes below 10 km) that ice crystals smaller than 15 microns in size are rare and that small ice crystals not detected by 2D-probe measurements are radiatively of minor importance, as overlooked 2D-probe crystals account for about 10% of the total extinction. The second part focuses on the link between cirrus cloud properties and radiation. With cloud macrophysical properties from surface remote sensing added to the microphysical data and additional radiation measurements at the surface, testbeds for radiative transfer models were created. To focus on scattering processes, model evaluations were limited to the solar radiative transfer by comparing calculated and measured transmissions of sunlight at the surface. Comparisons under cloud-free conditions already reveal a model bias of about +45 W/sq m for the hemispheric solar downward broadband flux. This discrepancy, which is (at least in part) difficult to explain, has to be accounted for in comparisons involving clouds. Comparisons under cirrus cloud conditions identify as the major obstacle in cirrus solar radiative transfer modeling the inability of one-dimensional radiative transfer models to account for horizontal inhomogeneities. The successful incorporation of multidimensional radiative transfer effects will depend not only on better models but critically on the ability to measure and to define characteristic inhomogeneity scales of cloud fields. The relative minor error related to the microphysical treatment is in part a reflection of the improved understanding on solar scattering on ice crystals over the last decade and of the available wealth on ice-crystal size and shape data for this study. In absence of this information, uncertainties from microphysical cirrus model assumptions will remain high.

Description: We compare seasonal changes in cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere from 18 atmospheric general circulation models, and observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). To enhance the CRF signal and suppress interannual variability, we consider only zonal mean quantities for which the extreme months (January and July), as well as the northern and southern hemispheres, have been differenced. Since seasonal variations of the shortwave component of CRF are caused by seasonal changes in both cloudiness and solar irradiance, the latter was removed. In the ERBE data, seasonal changes in CRF are driven primarily by changes in cloud amount. The same conclusion applies to the models. The shortwave component of seasonal CRF is a measure of changes in cloud amount at all altitudes, while the longwave component is more a measure of upper level clouds. Thus important insights into seasonal cloud amount variations of the models have been obtained by comparing both components, as generated by the models, with the satellite data. For example, in 10 of the 18 models the seasonal oscillations of zonal cloud patterns extend too far poleward by one latitudinal grid.

Description: The statistical distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change over 0.25-, 1-, 2-. and 4-h periods based on data from October 1995 through March 1996 over central Florida is presented. The wind changes at altitudes from 6 to 17 km were measured using the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler radar wind profiler. Quality controlled profiles were produced every 5 min for 112 gates, each representing 150 m in altitude. Gates 28 through 100 were selected for analysis because of their significance to ascending space launch vehicles. The distribution was found to be lognormal. The parameters of the lognormal distribution depend systematically on the time interval. This dependence is consistent with the behavior of structure functions in the f(exp 5/3) spectral regime. There is a small difference between the 1995 data and the 1996 data, which may represent a weak seasonal effect.

Description: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.

Description: Research efforts during the second year have centered on improving the manner in which convective stabilization is achieved in the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. Ways of improving this stabilization have been investigated by (1) refining the partitioning between the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme and the grid scale by introducing a form of moist convective adjustment; (2) using radar data to define locations of subgrid-scale convection during a dynamic initialization period; and (3) parameterizing deep-convective feedbacks as subgrid-scale sources and sinks of mass. These investigations were conducted by simulating a long-lived convectively-generated mesoscale vortex that occurred during 14-18 Jul. 1982 and the 10-11 Jun. 1985 squall line that occurred over the Kansas-Oklahoma region during the PRE-STORM experiment. The long-lived vortex tracked across the central Plains states and was responsible for multiple convective outbreaks during its lifetime.