ALBERT

Notes: The Susunai Complex of southeast Sakhalin represents a subduction-related accretionary complex of pelitic and basic rocks. Two stages of metamorphism are recognized: (1) a local, low-P/T event characterized by Si-poor calcic amphiboles; (2) a regional, high-P/T event characterized by pumpellyite, actinolite, epidote, sodic amphibole, sodic pyroxene, stilpnomelane and aragonite. The major mineral assemblages of the high-P/T Susunai metabasites contain pumpellyite + epidote + actinolite + chlorite, epidote + actinolite + chlorite, epidote + Na-amphibole + Na-pyroxene + chlorite-(-haematite. The Na-amphibole is commonly magnesioriebeckite. The Na-pyroxene is jadeite-poor aegirine to aegirine-augite. Application of empirically and experimentally based thermobarometers suggests peak conditions of T= 250–300C, P= 4.7–6 kbar. Textural relationships in Susunai metabasite samples and a petrogenetic grid calculated for the Fe3+-rich basaltic system suggest that pressure and temperature increased during prograde metamorphism.

Notes: In the Llano Uplift of central Texas (USA), prograde homogenization of garnet growth zoning took place during moderate-to high-pressure dynamothermal metamorphism over a narrow temperature range near the transition from the amphibolite to the granulite facies. This subtle record of early dynamothermal metamorphism survived subsequent static metamorphism at low pressures in the middle-amphibolite facies, despite the destruction of most high-pressure mineral assemblages that originated in the early metamorphic episode. Geographically systematic variations in the degree of homogenization indicate that the uplift as a whole underwent high-pressure metamorphism, in accord with emerging tectonic models for the mid-Proterozoic evolution of the southern margin of the North American continent.

Notes: Successful long-term wetland restoration efforts require consideration of hydrology and currounding land use during the site selection process. This article describes an approach to initial site selection in the San Luis Rey River watershed in southern California that uses watershed-level information on basin topography and land cover to rank the potential suitability of all sites within a watershed for either preservation of restoration. This approach requires the use of a geographic information system (GIS)to map relative wetness and land cover within a watershed. Relative potential wetness values were derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 30-m digital elevation models by calculating the flow that would potentially accumulate at all 30-m × 30-m pixels within the watershed. Land cover was derived from a Landsat scene covering the 1500 Km2 study area. We ranked sites (contiguous groups of pixels 〉 1 ha with similar land cover) in terms of their potential for restoration or preservation based on their wetness values (Iow, medium, and high), size, and proximity to existing riparian vegetation. Sites with medium or high wetness values and extant vegetation were identified as potential preservation sites. Agiricultural or barren sites with medium to high wetness were identified as potential restoration sites. Approximately 5500 ha (3.67% of the total watershed) were prioritized for preservation or resloration.

Notes: This historical and conceptual overview of riparian ecosystem restoration discusses how riparian ecosystems have been defined, describes the hydrologic, geomorphic, and biotic processes that create and maintain riparian ecosystems of the western USA, identifies the main types of anthropogenic desturbances occurring in these ecosystems, and provides an overview of restoration methods for each disturbance type. We suggest that riparian ecosystems consist of two zones: Zone I occupies the active floodplain and is frequently inundated and Zone II extends from the active floodplain to the valley wall. Successful restoration depends n understanding the physical and biological processes that influence natural riparian ecosystems and the types of disturbance that have degraded riparian areas. Thus we recommend adopting a process-based approach for riparian restoration. Disturbances to riparian ecosystems in the western USA result from streamflow modifications by dams, reservoirs, and diversions; stream channelization; direct modification of the riparian ecosystem; and watershed disturbances. Four topics should be addressed to advance the state of science for restoration of riparian ecosys-tems: (1) interdisciplinary approaches, (2) a unified framework, (3) a better understanding of fundamental riparian ecosystem processes, and (4) restoration po-tential more closely related to disturbance type. Three issues should be considered regarding the cause of the degraded environment: (1) the location of the causative disturbance with respect to the degraded riparian area, (2) whether the disturbance is ongoing or can be elim-inated, and (3) whether or not recovery will occur nat-urally if the disturbance is removed.

Notes: A two-stage system for selecting stream reaches and riparian communities for restoration was applied to the 80-km San Luis Rey River below the Lake Henshaw dam in southern California. In the first satge, data from topographic quadrangles and aerial photographs were analyzed to define and classiy reaches. These analyses concluded that (1) 28 km of the river and adjacent floodplain were suitable for second-stage evaluation of restoration needs and (2) 32 km met criteria for reference conditions at the stream reach scale and should be protected from further impacts. The remaining 20 km of the river and floodplain were considered unsuitable for restoration to reach-scale reference conditions; individual sites may be restored under existing regulatory review. Second-stage field sampling provided data on vegetation and floodplain landforms and substrate from more thatn 3000 plots within the 28 km of river and 1120 ha of floodplain selected for further Study. Classification of floristic samples stratified by landform/substrate class indicated six primary riparian communities on the floodplain, some associated with particular floodplain landform/substrate classes and others ubiquitous. Reference conditions for these communities were interpreted from the data. There were two major departures from reference conditions: tree-dominated communities were less extensive than historic levels and exotic plants had significantly invaded some landforms and communities, displacing natural com-munities. General goals would include restoration of tree communities and removal of exotics, with further consideration of site-specific objectives. The results included estimates of the areas by community type re-quiring restoration. The approach was developed for streams in the semi-arid western United States, but it may be adapted for use elsewhere.

Notes: This study compares the results of Olson and Harris (1997) and Russell et al. (1997) in their work to prioritize sites for riparian restoration in the San Luis Rey River watershed. Olson and Harris defined reaches of the mainstem and evaluated the relative potential for restoration and protection based on cover of natural vegetation, land use, and connectivity. Then they used data on geomorphic conditions, plant species composition, and community structure to prescribe strategies for restoration. Russell et al. used a modeling approach within a geographic information system to combine data on wetness and land use/land cover to identify areas with potential for protection and restoration. They prioritized the areas based on patch size and proximity to extant riparian habitat. The main-stem and associated floodplain defined by Olson and Harris was more than twice the size of the area defined by Russell et al., because Olson and Harris considered the entire valley floor, whereas Russell et al. used a wetness index to identify saturated zones within the floodplain. For seven of the twelve management units delineated along the mainstem, the two studies agreed on a strategy of restoration or protection. They differed on two. No comparison could be made of the three units for which Olson and Harris used project review, a unique category. Agreement of the results is due to the similarity of criteria used to identify and rank sites for protection and restoration; disagreement is due primarily to the level of resolution of the data. Both approaches have potential for use in watershed-level planning. The predictive power of the two approaches may be maximized when they are used in a complementary fashion.

Notes: We present a conceptual model for identifying restoration sites for riparian wetlands and discuss its application to reaches within the Upper Arkansas River basin in Colorado. The model utilizes a Geographic Information System (GIS) to analyze a variety of spatial data useful in characterizing geomorphology, hydrology, and vegetation of riparian wetland sites. The model focuses on three basic properties of riparian wetland sites: relative soil moisture, disturbance regime, and vegetative characteristics. A relative wetness index is used to define nominal soil moisture classes within the watershed. These classes generally coincide with uplands (low), channel margins (moderate), and channels or open water (high). Vegetative conditions are characterized using color infrared aerial photographs. Land cover types are grouped into five major land cover classes: riparian, moist herbaceous, bare ground, upland, and open water. Disturbance regime is characterized by a reach-based index of specific power (ω). Preliminary results indicate that reaches within the Upper Arkansas River basin can be classified as high energy (ω≥ 8 W/m2) or low energy (ω≤ 3W/m2), using discharge estimates that reflect the 10-year flood event. Field surveys of channel and floodplain conditions show that high-energy reaches (ω≥ 8 W/m2) are characterized by sites where the channel occupies a large proportion of the valley bottom. By contrast, low-energy reaches (ω≤ 3 W/m2) are characterized by meandering channels with wide alluvial valleys. Restoration potential is evaluated as a combination of nominal scores from wetness, land cover, and disturbance indices. Application of these methods to field sites within the Upper Arkansas River basin identifies a wide range of riparian wetland sites for preservation or restoration. Potential sites within identified reaches are prioritized using size and proximity criteria.

Notes: A major goal of population biologists involved in restoration work is to restore populations to a level that will allow them to persist over the long term within a dynamic landscape and include the ability to undergo adaptive evolutionary change. We discuss five research areas of particular importance to restoration biology that offer potentially unique opportunities to couple basic research with the practical needs of restorationists. The five research areas are: (1) the influence of numbers of individuals and genetic variation in the initial population on population colonization, establishment, growth, and evolutionary potential; (2) the role of local adaptation and life history traits in the success of restored populations; (3) the influence of the spatial arrangement of landscape elements on metapopulation dynamics and population processes such as migration; (4) the effects of genetic drift, gene flow, and selection on population persistence within an often accelerated, successional time frame; and (5) the influence of interspecific interactions on population dynamics and community development. We also provide a sample of practical problems faced by practitioners, each of which encompasses one or more of the research areas discussed, and that may be solved by addressing fundamental research questions.

Notes: The use of uncertainty factors in the standard method for deriving acceptable intake or exposure limits for humans, such as the Reference Dose (RfD), may be viewed as a conservative method of taking various uncertainties into account. As an obvious alternative, the use of uncertainty distributions instead of uncertainty factors is gaining attention. This paper presents a comprehensive discussion of a general framework that quantifies both the uncertainties in the no-adverse-effect level in the animal (using a benchmark-like approach) and the uncertainties in the various extrapolation steps involved (using uncertainty distributions). This approach results in an uncertainty distribution for the no-adverse-effect level in the sensitive human subpopulation, reflecting the overall scientific uncertainty associated with that level. A lower percentile of this distribution may be regarded as an acceptable exposure limit (e.g., RfD) that takes account of the various uncertainties in a nonconservative fashion. The same methodology may also be used as a tool to derive a distribution for possible human health effects at a given exposure level. We argue that in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in the estimated no-adverse-effect-level in the animal should be explicitly taken into account. Not only is this source of uncertainty too large to be ignored, it also has repercussions for the quantification of the other uncertainty distributions.

Notes: This research explores public judgments about the threat-reducing potential of experts, individual behavior, and government spending. The data are responses of a national sample of 1225 to mail surveys that include measures of several dimensions of public judgments about violent crime, automobile accidents, hazardous chemical waste, air pollution, water pollution, global warming, AIDS, heart disease, and cancer. Beliefs about who can best mitigate threats are specific to classes of threats. In general, there is little faith that experts can do much about violent crime and automobile accidents, moderate faith in their ability to address problems of global warming, and greater expectations for expert solutions to the remaining threats. People judge individual behavior as effective in reducing the threats of violent crime, AIDS, heart disease, and automobile accidents but less so for the remaining threats. Faith in more government spending is highest for AIDS and the other two health items, lowest for the trio of violent crime, automobile accidents, and global warming, and moderate for the remaining threats. For most threats, people are not distributed at the extremes in judging mitigators. Strong attitudinal and demographic cleavages are also lacking, although some interesting relationships occur. This relative lack of sharp cleavages and the generally moderate opinion indicate ample opportunity for public education and risk communication.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE'S) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios we used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. We also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. We used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies UptakeBiokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of our risk assessments we recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not have access to such a site. Our data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.

Notes: Exposure duration is an important component in determining long-term dose rates associated with exposure to environmental contaminants. Surveys of exposed populations collect information on individuals' past behaviors, including the durations of a behavior up to the time of the survey. This paper presents an empirical approach for determining the distribution of total durations that is consistent with the distribution past durations obtained from surveys. This approach is appropriate where the rates of beginning and ending a behavior are relatively constant over time. The approach allows the incorporation of information on the distribution of age in a population into the determination of the distribution of durations. The paper also explores the impact of “longevity” bias on survey data. A case study of the application of this approach to two angler populations is also provided. The results of the case study have characteristics similar to the results reported by Israeli and Nelson (Risk Anal. 12, 65-72 (1992)) from their analytical model of residential duration. Specifically, the average period of time for the total duration in the entire population is shorter than the average period of time reported for historical duration in the surveyed individuals.

Notes: Information format can influence the extent to which target audiences understand and respond to risk-related information. This study examined four elements of risk information presentation format. Using printed materials, we examined target audience perceptions about: (a) reading level; (b) use of diagrams vs. text; (c) commanding versus cajoling tone; and (d) use of qualitative vs. quantitative information presented in a risk ladder. We used the risk communication topic of human health concerns related to eating noncommercial Great Lakes fish affected by chemical contaminants. Results from the comparisons of specific communication formats indicated that multiple formats are required to meet the needs of a significant percent of anglers for three of the four format types examined. Advisory text should be reviewed to ensure the reading level is geared to abilities of the target audience. For many audiences, a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, and a combination of diagrams and text may be most effective. For most audiences, a cajoling rather than commanding tone better provides them with the information they need to make a decision about fish consumption. Segmenting audiences regarding information needs and communication formats may help clarify which approaches to take with each audience.

Notes: Using exploratory data analysis, probability plots, scatterplots, and computer animations to rotate and visualize the data, we fit a trivariate Normal distribution to data for the height, the natural logarithm of body weight, and the body fat for 646 men between the ages of 50 and 80 years as reported by the medical staff of the U.S. Veterans Administration's “Normative Aging Study” in Boston, MA. Although these data do not include any children, women, or young men, the measurements represent the best data that we could find through a 4-year search. We believe that these data are well measured and reliable for men in the specified age range and that these data reveal an interesting statistical pattern for use in probabilistic PBPK models.

Notes: Significant research work has been completed in the development of risk-based inservice inspection (ISI) and testing (IST) technology for nuclear power plant applications through the ASME Center For Research and Technology Development. This paper provides technology that has been developed for these engineering applications. The technology includes risk-based ranking methods, beginning with the use of plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), for the determination of risk-significant and less risk-significant components for inspection and the determination of similar populations for pumps and valves for inservice testing. Decision analysis methods are outlined for developing ISI and IST programs. This methodology integrates nondestructive examination data, structural reliability/risk assessment results, PRA results, failure data, and expert opinion to evaluate the effectiveness of ISI programs. Similarly, decision analysis uses the output of failure mode and causes analysis in combination with data, expert opinion, and PRA results to evaluate the effectiveness of IST programs. Results of pilot applications of these ASME methods to actual nuclear plant systems and components are summarized. The results of this work are already being used to develop recommended changes in ISI and IST requirements by the ASME Section XI and the ASME Operation and Maintenance Code organizations. A perspective on Code and regulatory adoption is also outlined. Finally, the potential benefits to the nuclear industry in terms of safety, person-rem exposure, and costs are summarized.

Notes: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all of the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreements among the experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of a ground motion for design at a given site. This paper reports on a project, co-sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the Electric Power Research Institute, that was undertaken to review the state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, by providing methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project reviewed past studies and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. In analyzing past PSHA studies, the most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are commonly due to process rather than technical differences. Thus, the project concentrated heavily on developing process recommendations, especially on the use of multiple experts, and this paper reports on those process recommendations. The problem of facilitating and integrating the judgments of a diverse group of experts is analyzed in detail. The authors believe that the concepts and process principles apply just as well to non-earthquake fields such as volcanic hazard, flood risk, nuclear-plant safety, and climate change.

Notes: Trichloroacetic acid (TCA) is major metabolite of trichloroethylene (TRI) thought to contribute to its hepatocarcinogenic effects in mice. Recent studies have shown that peak blood concentrations of TCA in rats do not occur until approximately 12 hours following an oral dose of TRI. However, blood concentrations of TRI reach maximum within an hour and are nondetectable after 2 hours.(1) The results of study which examined the enterohepatic recirculation (EHC) of the principle TRI metabolited(2) was used to develop physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model for TRI, which includes enterohepatic recirculation of its metabolites. The model quantitatively predicts the uptake, distribution and elimination of TRI, trichloroethanol, trichloroethanol-glucuronide, and TCA and includes production of metabolites through the enterohepatic recirculation pathway. Physiologic parameters used in the model were obtained from the literature.(3.4) Parameters for TRI metabolism were taken from Fisher et al.(5) Other kinetic parameters were found in the literature or estimated from experimental data.(2) The model was calibrated to data from experiments of an earlier study where TRI was orally administered(2) Verification of the model was conducted using data on the enterohepatic recirculation of TCEOH and TCA(2) chloral hydrate data (infusion doses) from Merdink,(1) and TRI data from Templin(l) and Larson and Bull.(1)

Notes: Estimates were made of the numbers of liver carcinogens in 390 long-term bioassays conducted by the National Toxicology Program (NTP). These estimates were obtained from examination of the global pattern of p-values obtained from statistical tests applied to individual bioassays. Representative estimates of the number of liver carcinogens (90% confidence interval in parentheses) obtained in our analysis compared to NTP's determination are as follows: female rats—49 (23, 76), NTP = 30; male rats—88 (59, 116), NTP = 35; female mice—131 (105, 157), NTP = 81; male mice—100 (73, 126), NTP = 61; overall—166 (135, 197), NTP = 108. The estimator from which these estimates were obtained is biased low by an unknown amount. Consequently, this study provides persuasive evidence of the existence of more rodent liver carcinogens than were identified by the NTP.

Notes: Cool smoke treatments were applied to unmined Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah) forest soils, rehabilitated bauxite mine soils, and broadcast seed to determine if enhancement in germination could be effected with a view toward maximizng the establishment of species in bauxite mines in Western Australia.Forest sites showed a 48-fold increase in total germinants from the soil seed bank when treated with aerosol smoke. Newly returned bauxite mine soils showed a greater than threefold increase in total germinants after the same treatment. There were also significant increases in the number of species germinating in response to the aerosol smoke treatment in both the forest and the mined soils. Similarly, application of smoked water to the soil seed bank in previously mined sites elicited a significant positive germination response, increasing total germinants and species numbers by 56 and 33%, respectively.Treatment of mixed seed lots with aerosol smoke before broadcast resulted in highly significant improvement in germination when compared to untreated seed. Both total number of germinants, and number of species emerging from mined sites were positively influenced (85% and 34% increases, respectively).Ten target species were used to determine the relative effectiveness of different methods of smoke treatment on the germination of broadcast seed. Nine of the species involved displayed a promotive effect with at least two of the treatments. Generally, however, aerosol smoking of seed before broadcast proved to be the more effective approach. As a result of these findings, all broadcast seed for use in Alcoa's bauxite mined areas in the southwest of Western Australia is now routinely smoke treated before application.

Notes: Understanding Cladium jamaicense (sawgrass) seedling establishment is an important component of an Everglades restoration program because the degree of sawgrass recovery and concurrent Typha domingensis (cattail) decline will be used to evaluate restoration success. To understand sawgrass recovery at locations with increased soil nutrients, we tested the effects of transplanting sawgrass seedlings to pots at different densities and investigated how nutrient additions affect seedling growth. Survivorship of seedlings transplanted into moist commercial potting soil at three densities ranged from 61% to 95%. After 6 months, maximum survivorship (90%) occurred at medium densities (2–4 seedlings per pot 16 cm in diameter). Nutrient additions, totaling 6.5 N g/m2, 9.8 P g/m2, 6.5 g/m2, were applied approximately 4 months after seedlings were transplanted. The biomass of the plants receiving nutrient additions (pulsed) was significantly higher (by over 30%) than plants with no nutrient addition (control). Photosynthetic rates for nutrient-enriched plants (measured 6-weeks after the nutrient additions) were significantly greater (by 32–45%) than for control plants. Instantaneous leaf water use efficiency increased significantly (by more than 20%) in pulsed plants. The results suggest that preventing root damage is crucial for the success of trans planted sawgrass seedlings and that nutrient additions enhanced seedling growth.

Notes: I evaluated responses by 16 native woody species to differential soil compaction and density of ground cover. The trees and shrubs studied represent sites in southern Illinois that commonly have restrictions to root growth from soil or drainage conditions. The study site was a restored surface coal mine in southern Illinois with a rooting medium compacted by grading and a dense ground cover of pasture species. Soil compaction was alleviated in half the study area before tree planting by mechanically ripping the soil to a depth of 1.2 m. Roots of half the trees and shrubs were dipped in a Terra® slurry before planting, and the ground cover around all planting spots was afterwards sprayed with herbicide. In year 2 after planting the ground cover in half of the unripped and half of the ripped area was further controlled by repeated application of herbicides. Ripping significantly increased height growth of all trees combined and all species individually in each year of the study. Second-year control of ground cover increased height growth of all trees combined and of seven species individually. Some species were damaged by herbicides. Terra® had little evident effect on species performance. Animal damage reduced early survival and growth, especially of Acer (maple) and Cornus (dogwood) species, and later growth of Quercus rubra (red oak). Removal of ground cover with herbicides tended to increase deer browse. Soil ripping, herbicide application, and choosing tree species unattractive to deer can be recommended to increase success in planting trees for forest restoration.

Notes: Woodlands dominated by Eucalyptus spp. in temperate southeastern and southwestern Australia have been extensively cleared for agriculture and are often badly degraded by livestock grazing. This has resulted in the loss of biodiversity and widespread land degradation. The continuing decline of these woodlands has become a concern for the conservation of biodiversity, and there is a growing interest among farmers, land managers, and researchers in developing techniques for restoring them. Currently few scientific guidelines exist for undertaking woodland restoration programs. We use a state and transition model to develop hypotheses on restoration strategies for salmon gum (Eucalyptus salmonophloia) woodlands. We consider that this approach provides a suitable framework for organizing knowledge and identifying areas where further information is needed, and hence provides a useful starting point for a restoration program. The model has the potential to provide a tool for land managers with which they can assess the action and effort needed to undertake woodland restoration in agricultural landscapes.

Notes: Most of the world's forest has been cleared, cultivated, and then often abandoned. In many instances these areas have changed to successionally arrested grasslands, shrublands, or fernlands maintained by frequent fires and high herbivore populations. Many studies have shown that various herbaceous, nitrogen-fixing legumes can protect soil surfaces, retain soil moisture, improve soil fertility, and retard ground fires. Our objective was to ascertain if some of these species can potentially inhibit herbivory and satisfactorily establish in these arrested grassland areas to serve as sites for reforestation. We evaluated the potential for four species of nitrogen-fixing legumes (Calapogonium mucunoides, Centrosema pubescens, Desmodium ovalifolium, and Pueraria phaseoloides) to establish on exposed soil within successionally arrested grasslands of Panicum maximum and Cymbopogon nardus in the central hills of Sri Lanka. Four different sites within rectangular grassland areas were cleared of graminoids and sown with seed of each legume. Half of each clearing was protected from browsing rabbits and porcupines, and half was not protected. After 6 months, certain plots were destructively sampled to determine dry biomass gain for each species and treatment. Analyses of variance were performed to test for differences among sites, treatments, and species. All three factors revealed differences, indicating that species must be matched to site. On sites with high amounts of herbivory, D. ovalifolium had the greatest dry biomass gain after 6 months of growth, possibly because of its relatively low nitrogen and moisture content. Where herbivory was absent, P. phaseoloides and C. muconoides had the greatest dry biomass gain. Dry biomass gain of all four legume ground covers was low on sites with lowest pH and nutrient concentrations. Under conditions of low relative fertility and low pH, establishment of the tested legumes failed. Though soil moisture availability was not measured, we speculate that these low fertility sites were also prone to drought. Findings support the site-specific establishment of legume species for purposes of reforestation and watershed protection in central Sri Lanka. This work is applicable to other regions particularly dominated by successionally arrested grasslands with similar circumstances in other parts of south and southeast Asia.

Notes: Oyster cultch was added to the lower intertidal fringe of three created Spartina alterniflora marshes to examine its value in protecting the marsh from erosion. Twelve 5-m-wide plots were established at each site, with six randomly selected plots unaltered (non-cultched) and cultch added to the remaining (cultched) plots. Within each cultched plot, cultch was placed along the low tide fringe of the marsh during July 1992, in a band 1.5 m wide by 0.25 m deep. Marsh-edge vegetation stability and sediment erosion were measured for each plot from September 1992 to April 1994. Significant differences (p 〈 0.05) in marsh-edge vegetation change were detected at the only south-facing site after a major southwester storm. Significantly different rates of sediment erosion and accretion also were observed at this same site. Areas upland of the marsh edge in the cultched areas showed an average accretion of 6.3 cm, while noncultched treatment areas showed an average loss of 3.2 cm. A second site, with a northern orientation, also experienced differential sediment accretion and erosion between treatment type, caused instead by boat wakes that were magnified by the abutment of a dredge effluent pipe across the entire front fringe of the site. During this period we observed significant differences in sediment accumulation, with the areas upland of the marsh edge in the cultched treatment having an average accretion of 2.9 cm and the noncultched an average loss of 1.3 cm.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: The Significance and Regulation of Soil Biodiversity. Harold P. Collins, G. Philip Robertson, and Michael J. Klug, editors

Notes: Evaluating alternatives for restoring the Everglades involves analysis of a complex ecological and economic system for which current knowledge is limited. Uncertain benefits and impacts are analyzed probabilistically in this paper, following otherwise accepted principles of net present value (NPV) analysis. Ecological benefits and impacts were considered in monetary terms. Probabilities for selected uncertain parameters were found by maximizing entropy. The first ecological risk conceptual model for the Everglades ecosystem was developed to show ecological interactions. “Current Plans” for restoration involve discharge of phosphorus-enriched water from artificial wetlands to relatively pristine Everglades marshes for 3–10 years, risking conversion of the ecosystem to a eutrophic cattail marsh. For two of the three areas studied, alternative “Bypass Plans” were shown to avoid the loss of up to 3000 acres of sawgrass marsh at a cost that is probabilistically justified by the value of the ecosystem preserved. Sensitivity of the results to projected ecological changes, eutrophic marsh valuation, natural marsh valuation, and future values as represented in the discount rate, was examined.

Notes: The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.

Notes: The concept of vulnerability of complex industrial systems is defined and discussed in relation to risk and system survivability. The discussion is illustrated by referring to a number of previous industrial accidents. The various risk factors, or threats, influencing an industrial system's vulnerability are classified and discussed. Both internal and external threats are covered. The general scope of vulnerability analysis is compared to traditional risk analysis approaches and main differences are illustrated. A general procedure for vulnerability analysis in two steps, including building of scenarios and preparation of relevant worksheets, is described and discussed.

Notes: The current safety criteria for a high hazard dam focus on protecting the dam during a large flood. While protecting the dam does help to protect downstream people and property, the two objectives are not the same. Instead, the criteria should focus on lowering property damage (including damage to the dam) and preventing flood deaths.High hazard dams must survive a design flood in the current safety criteria. However, experts don't agree on the size of the peak flow that meets this criteria.Statistical hydrologists have proposed an alternative to using professional judgment to specify the design flood. Unfortunately, peak flow distributions cannot be estimated with confidence for extreme floods given available data.A major safety goal is to prevent deaths from floods. Preventing deaths is a major reason for constructing the spillway to handle extreme floods so that the dam doesn't fail due to overtopping. However, even if the dam doesn't fail, the spilled floods could cause many deaths. A better approach is to warn people to get them out of harm's way if a flood is coming.Retrofitting existing dams that could pass a “probable maximum flood” (PMF) when built is almost never a good use of funds. Instead, funds would be spent better by focusing on preventing damage from small floods, lowering the damage from medium-sized floods, and warning people in the event of a flood that could pose risks to life.

Notes: This paper describes and illustrates the architecture of computer-based Dynamic Risk Management Systems (DRMS) designed to assist real-time risk management decisions for complex physical systems, for example, engineered systems such as offshore platforms or medical systems such as patient treatment in Intensive Care Units. A key characteristic of the DRMSs that we describe is that they are hybrid, combining the powers of Probabilistic Risk Analysis methods and heuristic Artificial Intelligence techniques. A control module determines whether the situation corresponds to a specific rule or regulation, and is clear enough or urgent enough for an expert system to make an immediate recommendation without further analysis of the risks involved. Alternatively, if time permits and if the uncertainties justify it, a risk and decision analysis module formulates and evaluates options, including that of gathering further information. This feature is particularly critical since, most of the time, the physical system is only partially observable, i.e., the signals observed may not permit unambiguous characterization of its state. The DRMS structure is also dynamic in that, for a given time window (e.g., 1 day or 1 hour), it anticipates the physical system's state (and, when appropriate, performs a risk analysis) accounting for its evolution, its mode of operations, the predicted external loads and problems, and the possible changes in the set of available options. Therefore, we specifically address the issue of dynamic information gathering for decision-making purposes. The concepts are illustrated focusing on the risk and decision analysis modules for a particular case of real-time risk management on board offshore oil platforms, namely of two types of gas compressor leaks, one progressive and one catastrophic. We describe briefly the DRMS proof-of-concept produced at Stanford, and the prototype (ARMS) that is being constructed by Bureau Veritas (Paris) based on these concepts.

Notes: Identifying the causes of accidents is a necessary prerequisite for preventive action. Some research suggests however that the analysis of accidents does not only differ between experts and laymen but that it is also linked to certain characteristics inherent in the analyst and in the social group to which he belongs: beliefs, value systems, norms, experiences in common, attitudes, roles, social and technical practices, etc. Culturally determined bias seems to affect the perception of risk and the causes of accidents. This article presents a certain number of thoughts and results based upon research carried out on causal attributions of traffic accidents in The Ivory Coast (West Africa) and discusses the importance of culture in risk-taking and accident prevention. It shows in particular that fatalistic beliefs and mystical practices influence the perception of accidents and consequently incite one to take more risks and neglect safety measures.

Notes: Since substantial bias can result from assigning some type of mean exposure to a group, risk assessments based on epidemiological data should avoid the grouping of data whenever possible. However, ungrouped data are frequently unavailable, and the question arises as to whether an arithmetic or geometric mean is the most appropriate summary measure of exposure. It is argued in this paper that one should use the type of mean for which the total risk that would result if every member of the population was exposed to the mean level is as close as possible to the actual total population risk. Using this criterion an arithmetic mean is always preferred over a geometric mean whenever the dose response is convex. In each of several data sets examined in this paper for which the dose response was not convex, an arithmetic mean was still preferred based on this criterion.

Notes: Developmental anomalies resulting from prenatal toxicity can be manifested in terms of both malformations among surviving offspring and prenatal death. Although these two endpoints have traditionally been analyzed separately in the assessment of risk, multivariate methods of risk characterization have recently been proposed. We examined this and other issues in developmental toxicity risk assessment by evaluating the accuracy and precision of estimates of the effective dose (ED05) and the benchmark dose (BMD05) using computer simulation. Our results indicated that different variance structures (Dirichlet-trinomial and generalized linear model) used to characterize overdispersion yielded comparable results when fitting joint dose response models based on generalized estimating equations. (The choice of variance structure in separate modeling was also not critical.) However, using the Rao-Scott transformation to eliminate overdispersion tended to produce estimates of the ED05 with reduced bias and mean squared error. Because joint modeling ensures that the ED05 for overall toxicity (based on both malformations and prenatal death) is always less than the ED05 for either malformations or prenatal death, joint modeling is preferred to separate modeling for risk assessment purposes.

Notes: Nineteen Senior Managers of a major chemical company in the United Kingdom participated in a survey to determine their attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions regarding risks from chemicals. Similar surveys had previously been conducted with toxicologists and members of the general public in the United States and Canada. In general, the Senior Managers tended to judge risks to be quite small for most chemicals. Moreover, they had lower risk perceptions than did members of the British Toxicological Society and even far lower perceptions of risk than a comparison group of members of the Canadian public. The managers held views that were similar to British toxicologists working in industry and government and dissimilar to the views of toxicologists working in academia. The observed differences between views of managers, toxicologists, and the public must be recognized and understood in order to facilitate communication and constructive efforts to manage chemical risks.

Notes: The construction industry is both the largest civilian industry and the most unique in terms of fragmentation and its approach to controlling risk. Structural specifications establish nominal safety factors and design criteria for engineered structures such as buildings, bridges, dams, and power facilities. The goal is satisfactory strength capacity to safely and economically meet the demands of structural performance. Structures must resist the highly uncertain effects of combined gravity, earthquakes, wind, and snow loads supported by natural and human-made materials. The public's expectation is that structures should last a long time and have low lifetime risk of structural failure. Historically, specifications have contained safety factors which evolved from past experiences and provided adequate safety or low risk. Due to pressures of economy and the need to optimize structural performance, structural specifications have recently been developed and accepted by industry based on structural reliability and risk-assessment principles. This paper reviews developments of probabilistic applications in structural specifications including specification format, database, implementation examples, target risk levels, present research activities, and future goals for establishing optimal risk-design procedures.

Notes: Importance measures have been useful in the process of extracting insights from risk analyses. Importance measures have also been suggested for use in component classification. However, there are difficulties of interpretation associated with component classification based on importance measures. This paper briefly reviews an alternative method, “Top Event Prevention Analysis,” and, based on a simple example, compares its key characteristics to those of conventional applications of importance measures. The methods are compared with respect to the task of formulating a safety case for a complex and potentially hazardous facility, in which component classification plays an important role. A key subtask is identification of a collection of design elements that is necessary and sufficient to achieve the desired level of protection of the public, the workers, and the environment. At the design stage, identifying this set helps to determine what elements to include in the final design. Separately, a similar selection process could be used in order to justify limiting the scope of regulatory oversight to a subset of design elements, on which a safety case is to be based. This step could be taken during initial review of a design, or later as part of an effort to justify relief from regulatory requirements that are burdensome but provide little actual risk reduction.〈section xml:id="abs1-1"〉〈title type="main"〉SUMMARYA safety case should arguably be based on a collection of design elements that combine to provide satisfactory plant response to important safety challenges, and provide this response with the desired reliability (achieved through redundancy and diversity in design, and programmatic support activities as necessary in implementation). The key property of such a collection resides in the set as a whole, and not in any single element: the implications of including or not including any given design element in the collection depend strongly on what other design elements are included. Given a logic model that comprehensively addresses plant response, reflecting all components under consideration, and a defense-in-depth safety standard of the kind discussed above, TEPA is capable of choosing prevention sets: subsets of components that have the desired defense-in-depth property, and are suitable candidates for serving as the nucleus of a safety case.Single-event importance measures cannot capture considerations like this, except perhaps as part of an arduous iterative reformulation of a logic model to successively remove and restore combinations of events in a trial-and-error approach to a self-consistent design solution. No method of applying conventional importance measures has been shown to produce solutions that are feasible in the sense of completing pathsets, nor is one expected. Interpreting the upper portion of a ranked list of components as a safety case would therefore be a misapplication of the importance measure concept.However, given a prevention set, one could apply importance measures to fine-tune the allocation of resources within this set. That is, one could compute importances within a model that took credit only for elements of the prevention set, and reason from there. Even in this case, some iteration might be required in order to achieve a self-consistent allocation (one for which the reliability credit taken for each component is commensurate with the resources allocated to it). In order to draw valid conclusions in an application of this type, one must recall that all importance measures are predicated on credit for all modeled components; it is invalid to infer that components can be dropped from a safety case on grounds of low calculated importance. In short, application of importance measures is valid when (a) the selection problem has been solved by other means, (b) the importances are calculated with credit only for selected components, and (c) the resources allocated to each component are commensurate with the level of credit taken for the component (e.g., credit for a component's availability is backed up by an appropriate test schedule.).A byproduct of this work is the observation that whether or not TEPA itself is applied to choose prevention sets, a useful litmus test to be applied to a safety case is simply whether it is based on a union of complete success paths. As discussed above, thinking of the safety case in this way has other benefits, in helping to identify unmodeled components and in helping to specify the demands that must be met by each component, so that programmatic activities necessary to ensure its function can be identified and carried out. This formulation of the safety case helps in thinking about the relationship between component performance and resources allocated to that component. Understanding this relationship is essential to optimizing the use of safety resources.The number of combinations (possible prevention sets) that must be examined grows very rapidly as the number of design elements and minimal cutsets increases. Therefore, many realistic problems will be very demanding computationally. To some extent, this could be considered a drawback of TEPA, but it should be understood that the underlying problem is combinatorially very difficult, and actual solutions to it should not be expected to come easily in all cases. Fortunately, as illustrated by the practical applications summarized above, many real large-scale problems have specific features that permit their solution by adaptations of the general approach.

Notes: This paper raises two questions, i.e., Are some people more prone to perceive hazards than others embedded in the same dangerous working environment?, and—if so—Is it possible to find distinguishing characteristics allowing us to profile this worker segment? A survey study was conducted among catering personnel working on a drilling platform at the continental shelf in the North sea. It was observed that some people more than others perceived hazards in their working environment. By contrasting the extreme groups, i.e., the high and low hazards perceivers it was found that sociodemographics, e.g., gender, marital status, age and working experience possessed no descriptive power. However, the findings revealed that the worker segment prone to perceive high hazards also reported higher degree of burnout, anxiety and depression than did the low hazards perceivers. They (the high hazards perceivers) were also less satisfied with their stay on the platform, and they reported more health problems as well. The findings indicate that hazards perceptions of hazards go beyond mere “cold cognition,” also tapping into negatively feelings and emotional states. Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted.

Notes: This paper presents estimates of daily average per capita fish consumption by age and gender for the 48 conterminous states. The estimated consumption rates are reported for three fish habitats: freshwater/estuarine fish, marine fish, and all fish. The estimates were generated from the combined 1989, 1990, and 1991 Continuing Survey of Food Intake by Individuals (CSFII), a national food consumption survey conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Point and interval estimates of per capita fish consumption were generated from the empirical distribution of daily average per capita consumption. The point estimates include the mean, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Ninety percent confidence intervals are provided for the estimated mean and 90% bootstrap intervals are provided for percentile estimates. Information in a recipe file provided by USDA was used to calculate the amount of fish in recipes which contain fish. The estimated consumption rates are based on the weight of fish in its prepared or “as consumed” condition. The estimated mean consumption rate for all fish for the U.S. population of the 48 conterminous states was 15.65 grams/person/day (C.I.:14.67–16.63) of which 4.71 grams/person/day (C.I.:4.17–5.25) was freshwater/estuarine fish and 10.94 grams/person/day (C.I.: 10.14–11.73) was marine fish.

Notes: The combination of radon and smoking produces a synergistic risk of lung cancer. Lay understanding of this risk was examined from the perspectives of mental models theory, the psychometric approach to risk perception, and optimistic bias. As assessed by interview, participants (N= 50) had more extensive mental models for the risks of smoking than for the risks of radon or the combination of radon and smoking; 32% knew little or nothing about radon. Despite reading an informational brochure, their risk-perception ratings of the three hazards showed no perception of the synergy between smoking and radon risk, although the combined hazard was rated as less familiar but more controllable than the average of the single hazards (p 〈 .01). No evidence of optimistic bias for the health consequences of radon, or the combination of radon and smoking was observed. Participants appeared to be combining the single-hazard risks subadditively to arrive at their combined-hazard risk perceptions. Further research on the integration of perceived risks would be beneficial for designing optimal communications about synergistic risk.

Notes: This paper investigates the role that performance-based regulations can play in linking a firm's environmental, health, and safety concerns with their corporate strategy. The specific focus is on the performance standards required by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) which require firms that store or use certain chemicals to develop a Risk Management Plan (RMP) for reducing the likelihood and impact of accidents at their plants. Data from a series of case studies and interviews of executives in chemical firms reveal that proactive companies integrated many of the requirements of the CAAA into their management systems prior to the regulatory requirements. Most of these firms tend to be large ones. Small firms often lack the resources to implement these regulations and hence have tended to have a more difficult time with compliance.

Notes: Chemical disequilibrium exists between all phases of the Alpe Arami garnet-peridotite body (Ticino, Switzerland) which hampers the evaluation of P-T conditions of origin, yet disequilibrium offers the inherent possibility to derive a P-T-t path for this mantle slice. We tried to tackle this problem by carrying out new mineral analyses and taking diffusion rates and bulk-rock compositional effects into consideration. Peak metamorphic conditions from mineral core compositions were estimated as 112050C/50.2 GPa. These values are significantly higher than previously published results and were determined from a combination of the O'Neill & Wood (1979) Fe/Mg garnet-olivine exchange thermometer and the Al-in-orthopyroxene barometer (Brey & Köhler, 1990), and are supported by the Ca/Cr ratios in garnet, which are in accord with these conditions. Details of the exhumation path were derived from (1) rim compositions of minerals that yield a first retrograde stage of 720 50C/2 0.25 GPa (2) a spinel lherzolite assemblage in narrow shear zones (tectonic phase F0″, after Möckel, 1969) which documents a second retrograde stage at 500–600C/0.8-l.5 GPa. The Ca content in olivine (Köhler & Brey, 1989) can be used to evaluate further P-T conditions along the retrograde path. We measured very low values (30–40 ppm Ca) in the cores of olivine and a remarkable increase towards the rim (120 ppm). The low core values may reflect an equilibrium stage during the main Alpine metamorphism. The increasing values towards the olivine rims probably represent a late-stage heating event. The initial cooling rates for the peridotite body are between 2700 and 5100C Ma-1, depending on which diffusion data are used.

Notes: Declines in native plant and animal communities have prompted new interest in the restoration of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Past restoration activities typically have been site specific, with little thought to processes operating at larger scales. A watershed analysis process developed in the Pacific northwest identifies four operating scales useful in developing restoration priorities: region, basin, water-shed, and specific site. Wtershed analysis provides a template for restoration practitioners to use in prioritizing restoration activities. The template identifies seven key steps necessary to understand and develop restoration priorities: (1) characterization, (2) identification of key issues and questions, (3) documentation of current conditions, (4) description of reference conditions, (5) identification of objectives, (6) summary of conditions and determination of causes, and (7) recommendations. When a similar process was used in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, and in the Sluslaw National Forest, Orgon, specialists were able to identify key habitat conditions and habitat forming processes and then to establish restoration priorities and implement the appropriate activities. Watershed analysis provides a valuable set of tools for identifying restoration activities and is currently being used throughout the Pacific Northwest to develop management strategies and restoration priorities. Although the analysis requires significant time, money, and personnel, experience suggests that watershed analysis provides valuable direction for managing aquatic and riparian resources.

Notes: Landscape ecology focuses on questions typically addressed over broad spatial scales. A landscape approach embraces spatial heterogeneity, consisting of a number of ecosystems and/or landscape structures of different types, as a central theme. Such studies may aid restoration efforts in a variety of ways, including (1) provision of better guidance for selecting reference sites and establishing project goals and (2) suggestions for appropriate spatial configurations of restored elements to facilitate recruitment of flora/fauna. Likewise, restoration efforts may assist landscape–level studies, given that restored habitats, possessing various patch arrangements or being established among landscapes of varying diversity and conditions of human alteration, can provide extraordinary opportunities for experimentation over a large spatial scale. Restoration studies can facilitate the rate of information gathering for expected changes in natural landscapes for which introduction of landscape elements may be relatively slow. Moreover, data collected from restoration studies can assist in validation of dynamic models of current interest in landscape ecology. We suggest that restoration and landscape ecology have an unexplored mutualistic relationship that could enhance research and application of both disciplines.

Notes: Restoration ecologists use reference information to define restoration goals, determine the restoration potential of sites, and evaluate the success of restoration efforts. Basic to the selection and use of reference information is the need to understand temporal and spatial variation in nature. This is a challenging task: variation is likely to be scale dependent; ecosystems vary in complex ways at several spatial and temporal scales; and there is an important interaction between spatial and temporal variation. The two most common forms of reference information are historical data from the site to be restored and contemporary data from reference sites (sites chosen as good analogs of the site to be restored). Among the problems of historical data are unmeasured factors that confound the interpretation of historical changes observed. Among the problems of individual reference sites is the difficulty of finding or proving a close match in all relevant ecological dimensions. Approximating and understanding ecological variation will require multiple sources of information. Restoration, by its inherently experimental nature, can further the understanding of the distribution, causes, and functions of nature's variation.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Water Quality: Management of a Natural Resource James Perry and Elizabeth Vanderklein

Notes: The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation created a shallow, 110-m channel to provide habitat for two endangered fishes, Cyprinodon elegans (Comanche Springs pupfish) and Gambusia nobilis (Pecos gambusia), at the site of the fishes' former natural habitat. The ciénega (marsh) associated with Phantom Lake Spring in Jeff Davis County, Texas, was destroyed by the creation of an irrigation canal system. In 1993, the endangered fishes were stocked into the refuge with individuals from the irrigation canals, and in the case of C. elegans, hatchery stocks. The condition of habitat, status of fish populations, and fish ecology within the refuge were then monitored for two years. The abundance and density of both species increased in accordance with aquatic plant development. Cyprinodon elegans abundance peaked after one year and stabilized at an average density of 14.7/m2 by the end of our study. Juvenile C. elegans were always rare, which may indicate that the population reached the refuge's carrying capacity and that recruitment is low. Gambusia nobilis was the most abundant fish in the refuge (average density 96/m2), used the entire refuge, and outcom-peted nonindigenous G. geiseri. The two Gambusia species used similar habitats but showed almost no dietary overlap. High densities of aquatic plants reduced the amount of open water areas necessary for C. elegans. The refuge will sustain the two endangered fishes at this historic site of endemism while maintaining flow to the irrigation system; however, the refuge is not equivalent to a restored ciénega.

Notes: No guidelines are currently available that advise which soil properties of arable land can be used to suggest suitable locations for heathland reconstruction. This paper reviews studies comparing soil properties of heathland or semi-natural grassland with those of adjacent arable fields, investigations in the autecology of the dominant heathland plant, Calluna vulgaris (common heather), and long-term experiments of fertilizer inputs on arable soils. Three properties must be assessed before the suitability of a field can be determined: extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH. A number of other nutrients may also be important, but evidence is currently insufficient to substantiate this. Natural changes in levels of extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH appear to be very slow, so nutrient stripping and acidification will be necessary where recommended levels are exceeded to successfully restore heathland vegetation.

Notes: Ants are widely used as bioindicators in Australian land assessment and monitoring programs, particularly in relation to ecosystem restoration following mining. Little is known, however, about the relationship between ant community development and key ecological processes such as nutrient cycling. We have examined the relationship between ant species richness and soil microbial biomass at 17 sites subject to disturbance by mining in the Kakadu region of Australia's Northern Territory. The number of ant species recorded ranged from 7 at an unvegetated site undergoing restoration to 43 at a site that was undisturbed except for edge effects. Soil microbial biomass ranged from 19.3 to 134.3 μgC/g. Ant species richness was positively correlated with soil microbial biomass (r= 0.638), more so than was plant species richness (r= 0.342 for total plant species, r= 0.499 for woody species only). Our findings demonstrate a correlation between aboveground ant activity and belowground decomposition processes at disturbed sites, thereby providing support for the use of ants as indicators of restoration success following disturbance. Interestingly, when a range of undisturbed sites in the region was considered, a negative rather than positive relationship between ant richness and soil microbial biomass was found. This illustrates the importance of distinguishing between variation within a habitat due to disturbance and variation across different habitats when searching for indicators of ecological change.

Notes: Bottomland hardwood forests in the southcentral United States have been cleared extensively for agriculture, and many of the remaining forests are fragmented and degraded. During the last decade, however, approximately 75,000 ha of land—mainly agricultural fields—have been replanted or contracted for replanting, with many more acres likely to be reforested in the near future. The approach used in most reforestation projects to date has been to plant one to three overstory tree species, usually Quercus spp. (oaks), and to rely on natural dispersal for the establishment of other woody species. I critique this practice by two means. First, a brief literature review demonstrates that moderately high woody species diversity occurs in natural bottomland hardwood forests in the region. This review, which relates diversity to site characteristics, serves as a basis for comparison with stands established by means of current reforestation practices. Second, I reevaluate data on the invasion of woody species from an earlier study of 10 reforestation projects in Mississippi, with the goal of assessing the likelihood that stands with high woody species diversity will develop. I show that natural invasion cannot always be counted on to produce a diverse stand, particularly on sites more than about 60 m from an existing forest edge. I then make several recommendations for altering current reforestation practices in order to establish stands with greater woody species diversity, a more natural appearance, and a more positive environmental impact at scales larger than individual sites.

Notes: We evaluated the ecological and reproductive characteristics of plant species occurring in severely disturbed areas that were revegetated with exotic grasses. We identified those species with the best combination of attributes that increase their probability of success in degraded lands. Fifteen degraded areas were studied in two different bioclimatic regions, a high premontane humid bioclimate and a low premontane humid bioclimate. The frequency of native colonizing species and the presence of arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization in their roots were evaluated. The sexual and breeding system, pollination mode, fruit set, and dispersal syndrome of ten of the most frequent colonizing species were also studied. The floristic survey of the colonizing species revealed a similarity to the reported flora of the treeless savannas that are dominant in the region. Bioclimatic conditions prevailing in the degraded lands seem to be an important factor for the presence of colonizing species and for species richness. All colonizing species studied were mycorrhizal, and for this reason the restoration program in these degraded areas should take mycorrhizae into account, reintroducing them or manipulating the soils to increase the mycorrhizal inoculum. We suggest Scleria cyperina and Trachypogon plumosus to start or promote the natural succession in the degraded areas from La Gran Sabana. Because their frequency is high and their reproductive system is less dependent on biotic factors, these species stand out in the studied areas.

Notes: Disturbance of coastal sage scrub in southern California has led to extensive displacement of native shrubs by exotic annual grasses. The initial conversion from shrubland to exotic grassland is typically associated with disturbance caused by intense grazing, high fire frequency, or mechanical vegetation removal. While native shrubs have been shown to recolonize annual grasslands under some conditions, other annual grasslands are persistent and show no evidence of shrub recolonization. This study examined the mechanisms by which annual grasses may exclude native shrubs and persist after release from disturbance. Grass density was manipulated in experimental plots to achieve a series of prescribed densities. Artemisia californica, a dominant native shrub, was seeded or planted into the plots and responses to the grass density treatments were measured over two growing seasons. A. californica germination, first season growth, and survival were all negatively related to the density of neighboring annual grasses. The most probable mechanism underlying the reduction of first season growth and survival was depletion of soil water by the grasses. The effects of the grasses on A. californica were no longer significant in the second season. The results of this study indicate that Mediterranean annual grasses reduce recruitment and can persist by inhibiting post-disturbance establishment of A. californica from seed. Although succession alone may not return disturbed annual grasslands to their former shrubland composition, the results suggest that restoration can be achieved by using container plantings or grass removal followed by seeding.

Notes: This study evaluated the genetic consequences of a reintroduction of the endangered annual plant Cordylanthus maritimus ssp. maritimus to Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California). A survey of 21 enzyme loci in natural populations revealed that genetic diversity is very low and is primarily found as rare alleles at a few loci, making this species especially susceptible to the loss of alleles and heterozygosity through genetic drift. The reintroduction was performed in 1991 and 1992 by sowing seeds (collected from Tijuana Estuary) in numerous small patches of suitable habitat. For this study, leaf tissue was collected from all plants in all patches during flowering in 1995 and surveyed for genotype at the three enzyme loci that are polymorphic at Tijuana Estuary. Rare alleles were absent in 27 out of 30 patches for Pgm-1, in 17 out of 30 patches for Pgm-2, and in 10 out of 11 patches for Mdh-1. In all, half of the patches lacked any rare allele. Rare alleles tended to occur in patches with few individuals. Overall rare allele frequency was lower than in the colonies from which seeds were collected at two of the three loci, and heterozygosity was reduced. The Sweetwater Marsh population is at risk of losing most of its genetic variation at enzyme loci through the extinction of patches with few individuals. Future reintroduction attempts should attempt to create contiguous sets of patches or to periodically reseed existing patches to reduce the loss of genetic variation.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: Riparian Ecosystem Recovery in Arid Lands: Strategies and References. Mark K. Briggs Land Restoration and Reclamation: Principles and Practice James A. Harris, Paul Birch, and John Palmer

Notes: Effects of waterlogging were studied in the field and under glasshouse conditions on two clonal lines of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh (river red gum), which are used in the rehabilitation of damaged agricultural catchments in Western Australia. The plantation of 9-year-old trees was in a position that covered a range of waterlogging and salinity conditions. Up-slope the water table was deeper (0.65–1.5 m), whereas the water table was closer to the ground surface down-slope (0.45 m in winter; 1.25 m in summer). Salinity was greater downslope and increased at the end of the dry summer, remaining high until diluted by the winter rains. Trees of both clonal lines were smaller downslope and used less water over the year. Clone M80 used more water in winter; clone M66 more in summer. In the field, the roots of clone M80 were evenly distributed through the soil profile, while roots of clone M66 decreased with increasing depth. Production of new root terminals varied with season. Greatest production was in spring and early summer, with much lower production over late autumn and winter. Only clone M66 produced new root terminals at depth (60–75 cm) during the drier months of late summer and early autumn. At this time, saline ground-water was the main source for water uptake. To explore clonal differences more closely, the effects of prolonged waterlogging were studied under glasshouse conditions. Clone M80 grew similarly under freely drained and continuously waterlogged conditions for the experimental period (21 weeks). The response under continuously waterlogged conditions was achieved through adventitious root production. By contrast, growth of clone M66 was suppressed under continuous waterlogging, a response associated with the lack of adventitious root production. The results from field and glasshouse studies suggest that clone M80 is more adapted to waterlogging by relatively fresh water than clone M66, but that clone M66 may use water of higher salinity than clone M80. Clone M80 would be better suited to higher positions in partially cleared catchments, where rainfall provides relatively fresh soil water. Clone M66 is better suited to lower catchment positions due to its ability to utilize more saline groundwater. Restoration of the water balance of damaged agricultural catchments can be best managed by matching specialized genotypes with particular catchment positions.

Notes: I conducted small-mammal trapping surveys on a desert scrub restoration site in Palm Springs, California, to document concomitant recovery of the rodent community. These surveys were conducted following quantitative vegetation sampling efforts that indicated that a predefined successful restoration criterion of 15% total shrub cover had been met throughout most of the area. But shrub cover, native shrub cover, herb cover, native herb cover, total cover, and total native cover remained significantly lower in the restoration area than in undeveloped desert scrub immediately surrounding the site. Native herb species richness was also generally lower in the restoration area. Despite these vegetation differences, rodent diversity, evenness, and abundance were very similar between the restoration and natural areas (they were consistently slightly higher in the restoration area). More diverse microhabitats, proximity to water, and reduced competition with harvester ants may have contributed to this outcome. If ecosystem restoration is the goal, reestablishment of a faunal community in restored habitat, rather than surpassing a predefined percent cover of vegetation, may be a better indicator of success, because plant cover proved to be a poor predictor of mammal success.

Notes: Books reviewed in this article: California Rivers and Streams: The Conflict Between Fluvial Processes and Land Use. Jeffery F. Mount Evolution and the Aquatic Ecosystem: Defining Unique Units in Population Conservation. J. L. Nielson, editor

Notes: Closed or abandoned landfills represent significant land areas, often in or near urban centers, that are potential sites for ecological restoration of native woodlands. But current guidelines in many jurisdictions do not allow for the installation of trees or shrubs above landfill clay caps, although these plants have many environmental, functional, and aesthetic advantages, including a rapid start to community succession. Typical closure procedures for capped landfills include only a grass cover to control moisture infiltration and impede soil erosion. The main concern that limits the application of a woody cover to a closed landfill is that roots may penetrate and weaken the clay cap. As part of a comprehensive experimental program on woodland restoration, we installed 22 tree and shrub species on Staten Island, New York (the Fresh Kills Sanitary Landfill). We found no evidence that roots of the transplanted woody plants penetrate caps used on these landfills. Root growth requirements and dynamics stop penetration of these materials. Anoxic and acidic conditions were found in the sandy subsoil above the cap, as indicated by corrosion patterns on steel test rods. Also, the intensity of mycorrhizal infection on the experimental plants was high in the surface soil and decreased progressively with increasing soil depth. The potential vertical rooting depth during this time period was greater than that occurring over the clay cap. This was shown from data collected on a nearby control site, where seven of the species were installed on an engineered soil lacking a clay barrier layer, and roots of all seven species penetrated deeper than on the landfill. The engineered landfill soils are poor growth media for roots, and below ground constraints that limit restoration on these sites must be addressed.

Notes: The Northern Rocky Mountain Wolf Recovery plan proposed reintroduction of Canis lupus (gray wolf) to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho as part of a wolf restoration plan for the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Strong opposition from some factions within the region forestalled the action for two decades. An environmental impact statement, conducted in 1992–1994 with extensive public input, culminated in a proposal to reintroduce wolves designated as “non-essential—experimental” under Section 10 (j) of the federal Endangered Species Act. This approach, approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1994, provided for wolf restoration while allowing management flexibility to deal with concerns of the local public. A reintroduction plan was developed in the summer and fall of 1994. Acquiring, holding, transporting, and releasing suitable wolves for reintroduction presented a myriad of technical and logistical challenges that required effective planning and coordination by all participants. In January 1995, 29 wolves were captured in Alberta and transported to Yellowstone National Park (14) and central Idaho (15). Idaho wolves were freed immediately upon arrival; Yellowstone wolves (three family groups) were held in acclimation pens in the park until late March. Most Idaho wolves traveled extensively within the area intended for them, averaging 82 km net distance away from release sites after 5 months (range = 30–220 km), and three male-female pairs formed by July. After 5 months in the wild, at least 13 of 15 Idaho-released wolves were alive within the intended area, as were 13 of 14 Yellowstone wolves; one wolf was known to have been illegally killed in each area. No livestock were killed. Wolves released into Yellowstone Park continued to live as packs, stayed closer to their release sites (x = 22 km at end of June), and settled into home ranges; two packs produced a total of nine pups. The progress of the reintroduction program in its first year far exceeded expectations. Reintroductions of about 15 wolves to each area for 2–4 more years are scheduled, but the project may be shortened because of early successes. Future reintroduction planners can expect sociocultural issues to pervade the effort, but they can be optimistic that, from a biological standpoint, reintroduction of wolves has strong potential as a restoration technique.

Notes: This paper summarizes the accumulation of nutrient capital during the natural afforestation of iron-smelting slag. The study site was the Beckley Furnace (North Caanan, Connecticut, U.S.A.) slag dump, which was abandoned around 1918. Currently, a Pinus strobus (white pine)-dominated forest occupies the site. Our primary objective was to determine the relationships among stand development and belowground nutrient pools to evaluate controls on the rates at which nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, and potassium accumulate in the developing forest. Along a developmental gradient of increasing stand basal area, we measured (1) aboveground biomass, (2) root biomass, (3) above-ground nutrient capital, (4) belowground nutrient capital, (5) soil weight, (6) soil organic carbon weight, (7) soil moisture, and (8) understory richness and density. Regression analysis suggests, as expected, that the addition of organic matter controls the accumulation of above- and belowground nutrients, soil water, and understory plant composition and distribution. The rather rapid rate of nitrogen accumulation suggests that allochthonous as well as autochthonous organic matter is an important source of nutrients for the developing forest soil and vegetation. Compared to those of other northeastern forests, soils in the most developed areas at the Beckley site have accumulated more than enough labile nutrient capital in 75 years to support a forest typical of the region. In the most developed stands, understory composition indicates mesic soil conditions, and that within the next 75 years or so the Beckley slag dump will be floristically very similar to the surrounding forest.

Notes: Extensive land loss, which is mostly wetland loss, has taken place during this century in the Mississippi River delta and other river deltas. Our purpose was to evaluate the effectiveness of constructing “artificial” crevasses, or cuts in the natural levee, made by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Delta National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) to slow or reverse this type of land loss. Land growth of the crevasses was determined from aerial photographs and was related to crevasse-site characteristics. The newly constructed crevasses create emergent wetlands after 2 years of subaqueous growth at about 4.7 ha/year and an average cost of $21,377 per crevasse. The present total cost per hectare declines with age as new land builds, and it will equal $48 per hectare if all the open water in the receiving ponds fills in. At these rates, the net land loss rates in the DNWR measured from 1958 to 1978 would be compensated for by the building of 63 crevasses, 24 of which are already in place.

Notes: It is common in catastrophic food-contamination events that consumers fail to adjust instantaneously to a normal consumption level. One explanation is that consumers only gradually accept new positive information as being trustworthy. The gradual establishment of the trustworthiness of the released information depends on both positive and negative media coverage over time. We examine the individual “trust” effects by extending the prospective reference theory (Viscusi, 1989) to include a dynamic adjustment process of risk perception. Conditions that allow aggregation of changes in risk perceptions across individuals are described. The proposed model describes a general updating process of risk perceptions to media coverage and can be applied to explain the temporal impact of media coverage on consumption of a broad range of goods (food or nonfood). A case study of milk contamination is conducted to demonstrate consumer demand adjustment process to a temporarily unfavorable shock. The results suggest that effects of positive and negative information to adjustment of consumption and risk perception are asymmetric over time.

Notes: The scaling of administered doses to achieve equal degrees of toxic effect in different species has been relatively poorly examined for noncancer toxicity, either empirically or theoretically. We investigate empirical patterns in the correspondence of single oral dose LD, values across several mammalian species for a large number of chemicals based on data reported in the RTECSQ database maintained by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. We find a good correspondence of LD, values across species when the dose levels are expressed in terms of mgadministered per kg of body mass. Our findings contrast with earlier analyses that support scaling doses by the 3/4-power of body mass to achieve equal subacute toxicity of antineoplastic agents. We suggest that, especially for severe toxicity, single- and repeated-dosing regimes may have different cross-species scaling properties, as they may depend on standing levels of defenses and rate of regeneration of defenses, respectively.

Notes: Although occupational exposure limits are sought to establish health-based standards, they do not always give a sufficient basis for planning an indoor air climate that is good and comfortable for the occupants in industrial work rooms. This paper considers methodologies by which the desired level, i.e., target level, of air quality in industrial settings can be defined, taking into account feasibility issues. Risk assessment based on health criteria is compared with risk-assessment based on “Best Available Technology” (BAT). Because health-based risk estimates at low concentration regions are rather inaccurate, the technology-based approach is emphasized. The technological approach is based on information on the prevailing concentrations in industrial work environments and the benchmark air quality attained with the best achievable technology. The prevailing contaminant concentrations are obtained from a contaminant exposure databank, and the benchmark air quality by field measurements in industrial work rooms equipped with advanced ventilation and production technology. As an example, the target level assessment has been applied to formaldehyde, total inorganic dust and hexavalent chromium, which are common contaminants in work room air.

Notes: Cultural Theory, as developed by Mary Douglas, argues that differing risk perceptions can be explained by reference to four distinct cultural biases: hierarchy, egalitarianism, individualism, and fatalism. This paper presents empirical results from a quantitative survey based on a questionnaire devised by Karl Dake to measure these cultural biases. A large representative sample (N = 1022) was used to test this instrument in the French social context. Correlations between cultural biases and perceptions of 20 social and environmental risks were examined. These correlations were very weak, but were statistically significant: cultural biases explained 6%, at most, of the variance in risk perceptions. Standard sociodemographic variables were also weakly related to risk perceptions (especially gender, social class, and education), and cultural biases and sociodemographic variables were themselves inter correlated (especially with age, social class, and political outlook). The authors compare these results with surveys conducted in other countries using the same instrument and conclude that new methods, more qualitative and contextual, still need to be developed to investigate the cultural dimensions of risk perceptions. The paper also discusses relationships between perceptions of personal and residual risk, and between perceived risk and demand for additional safety measures. These three dimensions were generally closely related, but interesting differences were observed for some risk issues.

Notes: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) have focused attention on risk assessment of potential insect, weed, and animal pests and diseases of livestock. These risks have traditionally been addressed through quarantine protocols ranging from limits on the geographical areas from which a product may originate, postharvest disinfestation procedures like fumigation, and inspections at points of export and import, to outright bans. To ensure that plant and animal protection measures are not used as nontariff trade barriers, GATT and NAFTA require pest risk analysis (PRA) to support quarantine decisions. The increased emphasis on PRA has spurred multiple efforts at the national and international level to design frameworks for the conduct of these analyses. As approaches to pest risk analysis proliferate, and the importance of the analyses grows, concerns have arisen about the scientific and technical conduct of pest risk analysis. In January of 1997, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis (HCRA) held an invitation-only workshop in Washington, D.C. to bring experts in risk analysis and pest characterization together to develop general principles for pest risk analysis. Workshop participants examined current frameworks for PRA, discussed strengths and weaknesses of the approaches, and formulated principles, based on years of experience with risk analysis in other setting and knowledge of the issues specific to analysis of pests. The principles developed highlight the both the similarities of pest risk analysis to other forms of risk analysis, and its unique attributes.

Notes: A substantial body of risk research indicates that women and men differ in their perceptions of risk. This paper discusses how they differ and why. A review of a number of existing empirical studies of risk perception points at several problems, regarding what gender differences are found in such studies, and how these differences are accounted for. Firstly, quantitative approaches, which have so far dominated risk research, and qualitative approaches give different, sometimes even contradictory images of women's and men's perceptions of risk. Secondly, the gender differences that appear are often left unexplained, and even when explanations are suggested, these are seldom related to gender research and gender theory in any systematic way. This paper argues that a coherent, theoretically informed gender perspective on risk is needed to improve the understanding of women's and men's risk perceptions. An analysis of social theories of gender points out some relations and distinctions which should be considered in such a perspective. It is argued that gender structures, reflected in gendered ideology and gendered practice, give rise to systematic gender differences in the perception of risk. These gender differences may be of different kinds, and their investigation requires the use of qualitative as well as quantitative methods. In conclusion, the arguments about gender and risk perception are brought together in a theoretical model which might serve as a starting point for further research.

Notes: The AC electric and magnetic fields associated with high voltage power lines have become a concern as a possible health risk. In most cases the strength of these fields decreases as the inverse square of the distance from the line. In earlier work, we found that laypeople do not understand how rapidly field strength decreases with distance. Most believe that any high voltage power line they can see is exposing them to strong fields. This paper confirms the earlier finding and explores a number of strategies which might be used in risk communications to correct this misperception. We found it relatively easy to provide subjects with a better understanding of the range-dependency of magnetic field strength. Moreover, the quality of this acquisition was apparently independent of the manner in which they were instructed. Such successful instruction is markedly different from the well-established difficulty of teaching people about many qualitative domains, such as physics or ideas in probability. Clearly, while some erroneous beliefs are highly resistant to change, others can be altered quite readily. We suspect that an important distinction between knowledge about the range-dependency of power-frequency magnetic fields and less tractable topics involves the presence or absence of prior folk-theories or “mental models” of the domain.

Notes: In the spring of 1993, about 39% of Milwaukee-area residents suffered through a nationally publicized illness brought about by cryptosporidium, a parasite that had infested the metropolitan drinking water supply. Our study, based on a telephone survey of 610 local adult residents, indicates that worry about becoming ill in the future with cryptosporidiosis relates more strongly and consistently to public reliance on, and use of, media for cryptosporidium information than do a range of risk perception and experience variables. We propose that more studies should take an audience-centered approach to understanding risk communication.

Notes: This paper seeks to compare two frameworks which have been proposed to explain risk perceptions, namely, cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm. A structured questionnaire which incorporated elements from both approaches was administered to 129 residents of Norwich, England. The qualitative risk characteristics generated by the psychometric paradigm explained a far greater proportion of the variance in risk perceptions than cultural biases, though it should be borne in mind that the qualitative characteristics refer directly to risks whereas cultural biases are much more distant variables. Correlations between cultural biases and risk perceptions were very low, but the key point was that each cultural bias was associated with concern about distinct types of risks and that the pattern of responses was compatible with that predicted by cultural theory. The cultural approach also provided indicators for underlying beliefs regarding trust and the environment; beliefs which were consistent within each world view but divergent between them. An important drawback, however, was that the psychometric questionnaire could only allocate 32% of the respondents unequivocally to one of the four cultural types. The rest of the sample expressed several cultural biases simultaneously, or none at all. Cultural biases are therefore probably best interpreted as four extreme world views, and a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methodologies would generate better insights into who might defend these views in what circumstances, whether there are only four mutually exclusive world views or not, and how these views are related to patterns of social solidarity, and judgments on institutional trust.

Notes: Public responses to nuclear technologies are often strongly negative. Events, such as accidents or evidence of unsafe conditions at nuclear facilities, receive extensive and dramatic coverage by the news media. These news stories affect public perceptions of nuclear risks and the geographic areas near nuclear facilities. One result of these perceptions, avoidance behavior, is a form of “technological stigma” that leads to losses in property values near nuclear facilities. The social amplification of risk is a conceptual framework that attempts to explain how stigma is created through media transmission of information about hazardous places and public perceptions and decisions. This paper examines stigma associated with the U.S. Department of Energy's Rocky Flats facility, a major production plant in the nation's nuclear weapons complex, located near Denver, Colorado. This study, based upon newspaper analyses and a survey of Denver area residents, finds that the social amplification theory provides a reasonable framework for understanding the events and public responses that took place in regard to Rocky Flats during a 6-year period, beginning with an FBI raid of the facility in 1989.

Notes: This paper presents benchmark (BMD) calculations and additional regression analyses of data from a study in which scores from 26 scholastic and psychological tests administered to 237 6- and 7-year-old New Zealand children were correlated with the mercury concentration in their mothers' hair during pregnancy. The original analyses of five test scores found an association between high prenatal mercury exposure and decreased test performance, using category variables for mercury exposure. Our regression analyses, which utilized the actual hair mercury level, did not find significant associations between mercury and children's test scores. However, this finding was highly influenced by a single child whose mother's mercury hair level (86 mgkg) was more than four times that of any other mother. When that child was omitted, results were more indicative of a mercury effect and scores on six tests were significantly associated with the mothers' hair mercury level. BMDs calculated from five tests ranged from 32 to 73 mgkg hair mercury, and corresponding BMDLs (95% lower limits on BMDs) ranged from 17 to 24 mgkg. When the child with the highest mercury level was omitted, BMDs ranged from 13 to 21 mgkg, and corresponding BMDLs ranged from 7.4 to 10 mgkg.

Notes: Truck transport of radioactive material (RAM), e.g., spent nuclear fuel (SNF), normally maximizes use of Interstate highways, which are safer and more efficient for truck transport in general. In the estimation of transportation risks, population bordering a route is a direct factor in determining consequences and an indirect factor in determining exposure times, accident probabilities and severities, and other parameters. Proposals to transport RAM may draw intense resistance from “stakeholders” based on concern for population concentrations along urban segments but the length of a route segment is also a determinative factor in estimating the transport risks. To quantify the relative importance of these two factors, a potential route for transport of SNF (strict use of Interstate highways) was selected and compared with a modified version that bypassed urban areas. The results suggest that emphasis on Interstate highways minimizes total route and urban segment risks.

Notes: In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-”1.8 X

Notes: This project describes a methodology for assessing relative risk along a transportation corridor utilizing waterborne transportation on the busiest port area in the world, the lower Mississippi River (from the mouth of Southwest Pass up through Baton Rouge, Louisiana). The paper calculates a relative risk scale, using data obtained from maritime experts, previous research, and existing databases. The research aggregates the vessel traffic data and geographic risk location data to produce relative risk scores for each mile along the River from the mouth of Southwest Pass to the termination of shipping at the U.S. 190 bridge across the River at Baton Rouge. This is done in a very simple and practical way for this initial model: (1) each vessel traveling the Mississippi is classified according to its risk potential for those miles that it passes in route to where it docks, and (2) points along the river are assigned a relative risk score based upon risk variables identified by expérts identified through a standard sampling procedure. The relative risk scores for river miles are combinations of these two factors.

Notes: Real-world exposure measurements are a necessary ingredient for subsequent detailed study of the risks from an environmental pollutant. For volatile organic compounds, researchers are applying exhaled breath analysis and the time dependence of concentrations as a noninvasive indicator of exposure, dose, and blood levels. To optimize the acquisition of such data, samples must be collected in a time frame suited to the needs of the mathematical model, within physical limitations of the equipment and subjects, and within logistical constraints. Additionally, one must consider the impact of measurement error on the eventual extraction of biologically and physiologically relevant parameters. Given a particular mathematical model for the elimination kinetics (in this case a very simple pharmacokinetic model based upon a multitenn exponential decay function that has been shown to fit real-world data extremely well), we investigated the effects on synthetic data caused by sample timing, random measurement error, and number of terms included in the model. This information generated a series of conditions for collecting samples and performing analyses dependent upon the eventual informational needs, and it provided an estimate of error associated with various choices and compromises. Though the work was geared specifically toward breath sampling, it is equally applicable to direct blood measurements in optimizing sampling strategy and improving the exposure assessment process.

Notes: Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed.

Notes: This paper investigates electrical overheating events aboard a habitable spacecraft. The wire insulation involved in these failures plays a major role in the entire event scenario from threat development to detection and damage assessment. Ideally, if models of wire overheating events in microgravity existed, the various wire insulations under consideration could be quantitatively compared. However, these models do not exist. In this paper, a methodology is developed that can be used to select a wire insulation that is best suited for use in a habitable spacecraft. The results of this study show that, based upon the Analytic Hierarchy Process and simplifying assumptions, the criteria selected, and data used in the analysis, Tefzel is better than Teflon for use in a habitable spacecraft.

Notes: The High Himalayan Crystallines (HHC) of Bhutan were penetratively deformed, intruded by leucogranite and metamorphosed during the collision of the Indian and Asian plates. Metamorphic reaction textures in the HHC show that it experienced decompression while maintaining a laterally heterogeneous, and locally inverted, internal temperature range of c.600–750C. This thermal structure was produced by thrusting hot, migmatitic rocks over lower-grade rocks within the HHC and by the advection of heat from the intrusion of leucogranite dykes and sills during decompression. A variable velocity field within the HHC during exhumation and extrusion between India and Tibet caused the inversion of top to the south sense of shear present throughout most of the HHC to top down to the north shear near its top.

Notes: The Tormes Gneissic Dome (TGD, NW sector of the Iberian Massif, Spain) is a high-grade metamorphic complex affected by a major episode of extensional deformation (D2). The syn-D2 P-T path of the Lower Unit of the TGD was deduced from the analysis of reaction textures related to superimposed fabrics developed during exhumation, analysis of mineral zoning and thermobarometric calculations. It comprises an initial phase of decompression, determined using the tweequ thermobarometric technique, from 6.4–8.1 kbar at 735–750C (upper structural levels) and 7.2 kbar at 770C (lower structural levels) to 3.3–3.9 kbar and 645–680C. This evolution is consistent with the observed sequence of melting reactions and the generation of garnet-and cordierite-bearing anatectic granitoids. The later part of the syn-D2 P-T path consisted of almost isobaric cooling associated with the thermal re-equilibration of the unit in the new structural position. This segment of the P-T path is recorded by assemblages with And + Bt + Ms and Ms + Chi + Ab related to the later mylonitic S2 fabrics, which indicate retrogression to low-amphibolite and greenschist facies conditions.

Notes: Eclogite-grade metamorphism of the Seve Nappe Complex (SNC) in Norrbotten, Sweden, records the attempted subduction of the Baltic continental margin during the early Palaeozoic evolution of the Iapetus Ocean. Metamorphic titanite sampled from several calcsilicate gneisses of the SNC in Norrbotten occurs as part of a prograde, eclogite facies metamorphic mineral assemblage and yields concordant to nearly concordant U/Pb ages of 500–475 Ma. Later structural disruption of these rocks occurred during the Siluro-Devonian Scandian phase of the Caledonide orogeny, but the U/Pb systematics show no evidence of a second generation (metamorphic or recrystallized) of titanite, or of post-Early Ordovician disturbance through Pb loss. Hence the U/Pb ages are believed to record the time of prograde mineral growth during eclogite facies metamorphism of the SNC.These results support earlier Sm/Nd and 40Ar/39Ar studies indicating an Early Ordovician metamorphic age for the eclogitic Norrbotten SNC, and confirm the Early Ordovician destruction of at least this segment of the Palaeozoic passive margin of Baltica. These results indicate that the SNC in the northern Scandinavian Caledonides was subducted and metamorphosed to high grade some 50–70 Myr prior to the high-grade metamorphism of the SNC in the central Scandinavian Caledonides. This result requires significantly different early Palaeozoic tectonic histories for rocks mapped as SNC in the northern Caledonides and those in the central Caledonides, despite a seemingly similar tectonostratigraphic position and broadly similar high-grade metamorphism.

Notes: A suite of garnet-wollastonite-scapolite-bearing calcsilicate granulites from the Eastern Ghats has been investigated to document the controls of mineral reactions during the metamorphic evolution of the deep continental crust. The rocks studied show heterogeneity in modal mineralogy and phase compositions in millimetre-sized domains. Textural relations, and the compositional plots of the phases, established that the clinopyroxene exerts a strong influence on the formation and composition of garnet in the complex natural system. P-T estimates using the vapour-independent equilibria involving garnet define a near isobaric cooling path from c. 850C at c. 5.5–5.2 kbar. The deduced trajectory tallies well with the terminal segment of the overall retrograde P-T path construed from the associated rocks using well-calibrated thermobarometers. The ubiquitous occurrence of wollastonite and scapolite in the main calcsilicate body suggests low aCO2 during peak metamorphic condition. Fluid compositions constrained from mineral-fluid equilibria of the garnet-bearing assemblages show domainal variations as a function of the compositions of the solid phases, e.g. garnet and clinopyroxene. A quantitative log/CO2-log/O2 diagram has been constructed to depict the stability of the different calcsilicate assemblages as functions of the compositions and the behaviour of these fugitive species. The results of the mineral-fluid equilibria and the quantitative fluid/rock ratio calculations, in conjunction with the topological constraints, imply vapour-deficient meta-morphism in the rocks studied. It is argued that fO2 during peak metamorphism was monitored by the ambient fO2. Subsequently, during retrogression, different domains evolved independently, whereas the fluid composition was controlled by the mineral-fluid equilibria.

Notes: The Mallee Bore area in the northern Harts Range of central Australia underwent high-temperature, medium-to high-pressure granulite facies metamorphism. Individual geothermometers and geobarometers and average P-T calculations using the program Thermocalc suggest that peak metamorphic conditions were 705–810C and 8–12 kbar. Partial melting of both metasedimentary and meta-igneous rocks, forming garnet-bearing restites, occurred under peak metamorphic conditions. Comparison with partial melting experiments suggests that vapour-absent melting in metabasic and metapelitic rocks with compositions close to those of rocks in the Mallee Bore area occurs at 800–875C and 〉9–10 kbar. The lower temperatures obtained from geothermometry imply that mineral compositions were reset during cooling. Following the metamorphic peak, the rocks underwent local mylonitization at 680–730C and 5.8–7.7 kbar. After mylonitization ceased, garnet retrogressed locally to biotite, which was probably caused by fluids exsolving from crystallizing melts. These three events are interpreted as different stages of a single, continuous, clockwise P-T path. The metamorphism at Mallee Bore probably occurred during the 1745–1730 Ma Late Strangways Orogeny, and the area escaped significant crustal reworking during the Anmatjira and Alice Springs events that locally reached amphibolite facies conditions elsewhere in the Harts Ranges.