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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
  • Climate change
  • Springer  (10)
  • American Geophysical Union
  • 2010-2014
  • 1995-1999  (10)
  • 1996  (10)
Collection
Keywords
Publisher
  • Springer  (10)
  • American Geophysical Union
Years
  • 2010-2014
  • 1995-1999  (10)
Year
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies (1996)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 87-106 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Climate change ; daily precipitation modelling ; generalized linear models ; iteratively reweighted least squares ; spline functions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581761
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming? (1996)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 147 (1996), S. 1-24 
    Details
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Climate change ; ground warming ; permafrost ; heat flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the “ramp” function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the “step function” model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00876434
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Monosoonal precipitation responses of shrubs in a cold desert community on the Colorado Plateau (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 106 (1996), S. 8-17 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Desert shrubs ; Colorado plateau ; Stable isotope ratio ; Summer precipitation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract South-eastern Utah forms a northern border for the region currently influenced by the Arizona monosoonal system, which feeds moisture and summer precipitation into western North America. One major consequence predicted by global climate change scenarios is an intensification of monosoonal (summer) precipitation in the aridland areas of the western United States. We examined the capacity of dominant perennial shrubs in a Colorado Plateau cold desert ecosystem of southern Utah, United States, to use summer moisture inputs. We simulated increases of 25 and 50 mm summer rain events on Atriplex canescens, Artemisia filifolia, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coleogyne ramosissima, and Vanclevea stylosa, in July and September with an isotopically enriched water (enriched in deuterium but not 18O). The uptake of this artificial water source was estimated by analyzing hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of stem water. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials and foliar carbon isotope discrimination were measured to estimate changes in water status and water-use efficiency. At. canescens and Ch. nauseosus showed little if any uptake of summer rains in either July or September. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials for control and treatment plants of these two species were not significantly different from each other. For A. filifolia and V. stylosa, up to 50% of xylem water was from the simulated summer rain, but the predawn and midday xylem water potentials were not significantly affected by the additional summer moisture input. In contrast, C. ramosissima showed significant uptake of the simulated summer rain (〉50% of xylem water was from the artificial summer rain) and an increase in both predawn and midday water potentials. The percent uptake of simulated summer rain was greater when those rains were applied in September than in July, implying that high soil temperature in midsummer may in some way inhibit water uptake. Foliar carbon isotope discrimination increased significantly in the three shrubs taking up simulated summer rain, but pre-treatment differences in the absolute discrimination values were maintained among species. The ecological implications of our results are discussed in terms of the dynamics of this desert community in response to changes in the frequency and dependability of summer rains that might be associated with a northward shift in the Arizona monsoon boundary.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00334402
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Antarctic fellfield response to climate change: a tripartite synthesis of experimental data (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 107 (1996), S. 141-150 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Climate change ; Propagule banks ; Community development ; Biogeochemical feedback
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This paper explores the biological consequences of climate change by integrating the results of a tripartite investigation involving fumarole, field manipulation and laboratory incubation experiments. The geographical region for this research is the maritime Antarctic. Under contemporary climate conditions, the lithosols in this region support only a sparse cryptogamic flora of limited taxonomic diversity and low structural complexity. However, the existence in geothermal areas of temperate species (e.g. Campylopus introflexus, Marchantia polymorpha, Philonotis acicularis) growing outside their normal biogeographical range suggests that elevated temperature and humidity may alter the trajectory of community development towards Magellanic or Patagonian composition. Productivity is also likely to increase, as indicated by significantly greater vegetative biomass recorded beneath climate-ameliorating soil covers than in controls. Barren fellfield soil samples transplanted to the laboratory and incubated at temperatures of 2–25°C show rapid development of moss, algae and lichen propagules in the range 15–25°C. A variety of species develop that have not been recorded in the field. The presence of exotic taxa indicates the existence of a dormant propagule bank in maritime Antarctic soils and suggests that no significant delay is likely to occur between the onset of climate warming and community development: instead, rapid establishment of those species favoured by the new climate conditions will yield a distinct founder effect, with increasing above- and below-ground biomass stimulating biogeochemical cycling. It is argued that the combined results of this synthesis identify generic responses to climate change arising from the importance at high latitudes of low temperature and water availability as limiting factors: subject to other growth resources being non-limiting, a more consistent stimulatory response to climate change may be expected than in temperate or tropical regions. The tripartite approach, encompassing field, microcosm and laboratory methodologies, renders the conclusions more robust than any single study considered in isolation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00327897
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-term persistence in a changing climate: DNA analysis suggests very old ages of clones of alpine Carex curvula (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 105 (1996), S. 94-99 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Alpine grassland ; Climate change ; RAPD ; Population genetic structure ; Tussock sedge
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Carex curvula is a very slow-growing rhizomatous sedge that forms extensive stands in the European an alpine belt. The recruitment of sexual progeny is extremely rare and propagation occurs predominantly through clonal growth. The randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to analyse clonal structure in a small patch (2.0x0.4 m sampling transect plus some additional samples) of a high-alpine population of the species. Amplification of the DNA of 116 tiller samples from the patch with eight ten-base primers yielded a total of 95 bands, of which 73 were polymorphic. Based on the RAPD amplification profiles a total of 15 multilocus genotypes (putative clones) were identified. Due to the high number of polymorphic loci the number of genetic markers delineating individual clones was high (range: 16–39 markers) which suggests that our estimates of clonal diversity are precise. More than half of the sampled tillers were identified as belonging to a single clone which formed a relatively homogeneous disc intermingling with other clones only at its margin. Based on the maximum diameter of this large clone of more than 7000 tillers and estimates of annual expansion growth of rhizomes (0.4 mm year-1), the age of the clone was calculated to be around 2000 years. This demonstrates that clones of C. curvula may persist on a single spot over long periods with quite diverse alpine climates ranging from rather mild periods in the Middle Ages to cool periods during the so called “little ice age” in the last century. Our results suggest caution with plant migration scenarios based on shifting isotherms where late-successional clonal species, which dominate the alpine vegetation all over the world, are concerned.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00328796
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    High-temperature tolerance of Artemisia tridentata and Potentilla gracilis under a climate change manipulation (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 108 (1996), S. 224-231 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Chlorophyll fluorescence ; Climate change ; Electrolyte leakage ; Rocky Mountains ; Sagebrush
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Leaf tolerance to high temperatures, as determined by electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll a fluorescence, was compared for Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae), a widespread shrub of the Great Basin, Colorado Plateau, and western slope of the Rocky Mountains, and Potentilla gracilis (Rosaceae), a herbaceous forb common to high-elevation meadows of the western United States. Species-specific and treatment-specific differences in leaf temperature, high-temperature tolerance and chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II were compared, to test the hypothesis that plants at ecosystem borders will exhibit species-specific responses to climate change. Measurements were made for plants exposed to a climate change warming manipulation on a major ecosystem border at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, United States, in July and August 1995. In July, daily maximal leaf temperatures were significantly higher for P. gracilis than for A. tridentata. Leaf temperatures were slightly lower in August than July for leaves of both species, on control and heated plots, despite the fact that daily maximum air temperatures were not significantly different for the two months. High-temperature tolerance was determined for leaves treated for 1 h at temperatures ranging from 15°C to 65°C. LT50 was approximately 46°C for both species on control plots, but was 43°C for leaves of both species from heated plots, contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis. No shift in LT50 (acclimation) was apparent between July and August. Changes in chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II (F V /F M ) were used to characterize the photosynthetic response to high temperatures. For both A. tridentata and P. gracilis in July, F V /F M was about 0.7, but decreased for temperatures above 40°C. The results suggest that plant responses to global warming at ecosystem borders may be influenced by factors other than leaf-level physiological tolerance to elevated temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00334645
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Effects of drainage and temperature on carbon balance of tussock tundra micrososms (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 108 (1996), S. 737-748 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Tussock tundra ; Net CO2 balance ; Eriophorum vaginatum ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We examined the importance of temperature (7°C or 15°C) and soil moisture regime (saturated or field capacity) on the carbon (C) balance of arctic tussock tundra microcosms (intact blocks of soil and vegetation) in growth chambers over an 81-day simulated growing season. We measured gaseous CO2 exchanges, methane (CH4) emissions, and dissolved C losses on intact blocks of tussock (Eriophorum vaginatum) and intertussock (moss-dominated). We hypothesized that under increased temperature and/or enhanced drainage, C losses from ecosystem respiration (CO2 respired by plants and heterotrophs) would exceed gains from gross photosynthesis causing tussock tundra to become a net source of C to the atmosphere. The field capacity moisture regime caused a decrease in net CO2 storage (NEP) in tussock tundra micrososms. This resulted from a stimulation of ecosystem respiration (probably mostly microbial) with enhanced drainage, rather than a decrease in gross photosynthesis. Elevated temperature alone had no effect on NEP because CO2 losses from increased ecosystem respiration at elevated temperature were compensated by increased CO2 uptake (gross photosynthesis). Although CO2 losses from ecosystem respiration were primarily limited by drainage, CH4 emissions, in contrast, were dependent on temperature. Furthermore, substantial dissolved C losses, especially organic C, and important microhabitat differences must be considered in estimating C balance for the tussock tundra system. As much as ∼ 20% of total C fixed in photosynthesis was lost as dissolved organic C. Tussocks stored ∼ 2x more C and emitted 5x more methane than intertussocks. In spite of the limitations of this microcosm experiment, this study has further elucidated the critical role of soil moisture regime and dissolved C losses in regulating net C balance of arctic tussock tundra.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00329050
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. S27 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Heat production ; Electricity production ; CO2 emission reduction ; Mitigation measures ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO2 emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01204189
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. 159-173 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Coastal zone management ; Environmental damage valuation ; Climate change ; Sea-level rise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01204001
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The economic consequences of substituting carbon payments for crop subsidies in U.S. agriculture (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 7 (1996), S. 15-43 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Climate change ; carbon sequestration ; farm policy ; afforestation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract There is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon. However, no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs. This study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs, using a price-endogenous sector model of agriculture in the United States. First, this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation, with and without current farm programs. Second, it examines the welfare, fiscal, and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies, wholly or in part, with payments for carbon. Two approaches, Hicksian and Marshallian, are investigated. In the first, the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the U.S. agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs. The second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels. Althouth the methodology and data are applied to the United States, the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations, particularly within the European Union (EU). Adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade-offs involved with second-best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00420425
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