ALBERT

Notes: Microstructures in slate belt rocks at the Elura Mine, near Cobar, south-eastern Australia, indicate that volume loss by syntectonic dissolution is coupled with mass accretion by reprecipitation of the dissolved material in dilational sites. The mass accretion is sustained primarily by repetitive tensile microfracturing at high pore-fluid pressures. Oriented growth in the inter- and intragranular microcracks is locally host-controlled, creating lattice- and shape-preferred orientations. The grain-scale crack-seal features throughout the rock reflect rhythmic fluid pressure fluctuations; a balance is achieved between the fracture-induced permeability (and consequent flushing rates), and the rate of fluid build-up in a relatively sealed environment.Instability in the balancing factors can lead to localization and intensification of tensile failure (and hence, tension vein formation) in the grain aggregate. Growth of veins by crack-seal also reflects a steady state, but with more localized fluctuations of fluid flow on the aggregate scale. Still larger imbalances between flushing and fluid accumulation (i.e. pressure variations) induce breccia veining. The larger pressure gradients over greater distances, associated with dilation localization (from pervasive microfracturing to spaced breccia domains), allow fluid channelling with an increased potential for chemical fluid/rock disequilibrium. Therefore, large breccia vein systems tend to be sites of extensive fluid/rock interaction and replacement, as spectacularly illustrated by the syntectonic sulphide orebodies at Elura. The huge amounts of silicate, carbonate and sulphide accumulated during folding at Elura illustrate the large scale of source and sink couples possible in solute mass transfer.

Notes: The Internal Zone of the Betic Cordilleras consists of several superimposed major thrust sheets with different P-T-t evolutions. On the basis of an integrated field, microscopic and laboratory study, the tectono-metamorphic history of the Mulhacen Complex and Almanzora Unit has been reconstructed in detail. The Mulhacen Complex has been affected by at least five phases of penetrative deformation, which have been labelled Dx-1, Dx, Dx+1, Dx+2 and Dx+3. Dx-1, and Dx are related to continent-continent collision, which is indicated by high pressure-low temperature (HP/LT) and subsequent intermediate P/T metamorphic conditions. Dx+1 is related to crustal thinning and heterogeneous extension. During this event the Almanzora Unit was juxtaposed against the Mulhacen Complex. This phase was succeeded by the establishment of low pressure-high temperature (LP/HT) conditions and at least two phases of folding and overthrusting. The Almanzora Unit shows a comparable tectono-metamorphic evolution post Dx+1. However, the P/T conditions prior to Dx+1 indicate a higher crustal position with respect to the Mulhacen Complex during the collisional event.

Notes: Following the Middle Devonian Acadian deformation an extensive belt of high grade metamorphism was formed in New England. In south-western Maine, at the northern end of this belt, there occurs a transition along the strike from regional low-pressure/high-temperature metamorphism to contact metamorphism in low-grade rocks. Petrological studies indicate that this transition occurs along a surface plunging to the north-east at about 3.5°, with respect to the Middle-to-Late Devonian erosion surface. In addition, detailed petrological mapping has defined a history of temporally separate, localized metamorphic events associated with plutonism and occurring at increasingly deeper levels to the south-west. Geochronological studies constrain ambient temperatures in the transition zone at the time of metamorphism to be less than 300° C in the north-east and between 350° C and 500° C in the south-west. They also establish a pattern of diachronous cooling due to differential uplift and erosion, with cooling occurring later and most rapidly to the south-west. Geophysical evidence suggests that along with this spatial variation in metamorphic style the shapes of the plutons in Maine undergo a transition from laterally extensive sheet-like bodies in the high grade terrane to more equant-shaped bodies in the low-grade terrane. Using the results of these petrological, geochronological and geophysical studies, as well as those of stratigraphical and structural studies we construct a thermal model for the transition zone. The model suggests that the Acadian metamorphism in south-western Maine is a result of deep-level contact metamorphism near laterally extensive granitic sills dipping to the north-east with respect to the present erosion surface. The plutons themselves are interpreted to be a result of lower crustal melting in response to crustal thickening in the presence of normal or slightly augmented mantle heat flux.

Notes: All along the Himalayan chain an axis of crystalline rocks has been preserved, made of the Higher Himalaya crystalline and the crystalline nappes of the Lesser Himalaya. The salient points of the metamorphism, as deduced from data collected in central Himalaya (central Nepal and Kumaun), are:〈list xml:id="l1" style="custom"〉1The Higher Himalaya crystalline, also called the Tibetan Slab, displays a polymetamorphic history with a first stage of Barrovian type overprinted by a lower pressure and/or higher temperature type metamorphism. The metamorphism is due to quick and quasi-adiabatic uplift of the Tibetan Slab by transport along an MCT ramp, accompanied by thermal refraction effects in the contact zone between the gneisses and their sedimentary cover. The resulting metamorphic pattern is an apparent (diachronic) inverse zonation, with the sillimanite zone above the kyanite zone.2Conversely, the famous inverted zonation of the Lesser Himalaya is basically a primary pattern, acquired during a one-stage prograde metamorphism. Its origin must be related to the thrusting along the MCT, with heat supplied from the overlying hot Tibetan Slab, as shown by synmetamorphic microstructures and the close geometrical relationships between the metamorphic isograds and the thrust.3Thermal equilibrium is reached between units above and below the MCT. Far behind the thrust tip there is good agreement between the maximum temperature attained in the hanging wall and the temperature of the Tibetan Slab during the second metamorphic stage; but closer to the MCT front, the thermal accordance between both sides of the thrust is due to a retrogressive metamorphic episode in the basal part of the Tibetan Slab.

Notes: South of the Main Mantle Thrust in north Pakistan, rocks of the northern edge of the Indian plate were deformed and metamorphosed during the main southward thrusting phase of the Himalayan orogeny. In the Hazara region, between the Indus and Kaghan Valleys, metamorphic grade increases northwards from chlorite zone to sillimanite zone rocks in a typically Barrovian sequence. Metamorphism was largely synchronous with early phases of the deformation. The metamorphic rocks were subsequently imbricated by late north-dipping thrusts, each with higher grade rocks in the hanging wall than in the footwall, such that the metamorphic profile shows an overall tectonic inversion. The rocks of the Hazara region form one of a number of internally imbricated metamorphic blocks stacked, after the metamorphic peak, on top of each other during the late thrusting. This imbrication and stacking represents an early period of post-Himalayan uplift.

Notes: Crustal thickening along the northern margin of the Indian plate, following the 50 Ma collision along the Indus Suture Zone in Ladakh, caused widespread high-temperature, medium-pressure Barrovian facies series metamorphism and anatexis. In the Zanskar Himalaya metamorphic isograds are inverted and structurally telescoped along the Main Central Thrust (MCT) Zone at the base of the High Himalayan slab. Along the Zanskar valley at the top of the slab, isograds are the right way-up and are also telescoped along northeast-dipping normal faults of the Zanskar Shear Zone (ZSZ), which are related to culmination collapse behind the Miocene Himalayan thrust front. Between the MCT and the ZSZ a metamorphic-anatectic core within sillimanite grade rocks contains abundant leucogranite-granite crustal melts of probable Himalayan age. A thermal model based on a crustal-scale cross-section across the Zanskar Himalaya suggests that M1 isograds, developed during early Himalayan Barrovian metamorphism, were overprinted during high-grade MCT-related anatexis and folded around a large-scale recumbent fold developed in the hanging wall of the MCT.

Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.

Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.

Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.

Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.

Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.

Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.

Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.

Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.

Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.

Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.

Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.

Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.

Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.

Notes: Experiments up to water pressures of 21 kbar have been undertaken to bracket the reactions chlorite + quartz = talc + kyanite + H2O, chlorite + quartz = talc + cordierite + H2O, and talc + kyanite + quartz = cordierite ± H2O by reversed runs in the system MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O (MASH). These reaction curves intersect at an invariant point (IP1) at PH2O = 6.4 ± 0.2 kbar and a temperature of 624 ± 4°C. The curve of the chlorite + quartz breakdown to talc + kyanite + H2O at water pressures above 6.4 kbar shows a negative dP/dT, with the slope decreasing with rising pressure, whereas the slope of the breakdown curve to talc + cordierite + H2O at water pressures is clearly positive.The composition of the chlorite solid solution reacting with quartz has been estimated to be approximately Mg4.85Al1.15[Al1.15Si2.85O10](OH)8 over the entire pressure range investigated. The composition of the talc solid solution forming by the breakdown of chlorite + quartz appears to be Mg2.94Al0.06[Al0.06Si3.94O10](OH)2 at PH2O = 2kbar. With increasing pressure, the Al content of talc decreases, reaching a value of about 0.06 atoms per formula unit at P,H2O = 21 kbar.As a consequence of the new experimental data, the existing phase topologies of the MASH-system and K2O-MASH-system have been revised. For example, the invariant point IP1 and the univariant reaction curve kyanite + talc + H2O = chlorite + cordierite are stable. For this reason, the development of medium- to high-temperature metamorphic rocks compositionally approximating the MASH-system must be reconsidered. The whiteschists from Sar e Sang, Afghanistan, are treated as an example. The application of the present experimental data to metamorphic rocks of more normal composition requires the examination of the influence of further components. This leads to the conclusion that the introduction of Fe2+ into magnesian chlorite extends its stability field in the presence of quartz by 10°-15°C in comparison with pure Mg-chlorite.

Notes: A reaction producing jadeitic pyroxene in metagreywackes of the northern Diablo Range has been identified on the basis of mineral distribution, isograd patterns and composition of coexisting minerals. The appearance of jadeitic pyroxene (∼Jd80) is closely followed by the disappearance of pumpellyite, which indicates that pumpellyite plays a major role in the pyroxene-producing reaction. A new projection from hematite, lawsonite, chlorite, quartz and H2O on to the NaAlO2-FeO-MgO ternary confirms the role of pumpellyite in pyroxene production and suggests a reaction of the form: 1.00 pumpellyite + 0.31 chlorite + 8.71 albite + 0.70 hematite + 2.00 H2O = 8.54 jadeite + 0.57 glaucophane + 3.09 lawsonite + 5.26 quartz. Metagreywackes of the northern Diablo Range were metamorphosed under conditions of PH2O=Ptotal at 200-300 °C and 7.5-10.0 kbar. Despite the low temperatures attained during metamorphism, the assumption of equilibrium yields results consistent with field observations and phase relations.

Notes: Metabasites and metagreywackes from the Pelona and Rand Schists of southern California were analysed using three different electron microprobes. For all three instruments, the estimated Fe3+ contents of calcic amphibole, chlorite and epidote are positively correlated. For some samples, there is an additional correlation between high estimated Fe3+ and the presence of magnetite. These results imply that microprobe analyses can be used to discern relative differences in Fe3+. However, microprobe data and calculations on the sensitivity of the correction procedures to systematic analytical errors indicate that estimated values of Fe3+ are not significant in an absolute sense. Thus, estimates of Fe3+ are meaningful when comparing samples analysed with a single microprobe, but must be used with caution when comparing analyses obtained on more than one probe.

Notes: All the Mesozoic and Cenozoic volcanic rocks of the Central Andes (from southern Ecuador to central Chile), except Recent ones, have been affected by episodes of regional metamorphism, without change in texture and structure. The metamorphism, which ranges from low zeolite to greenschist facies, can be classified as burial metamorphism because there is an overall increase in metamorphic grade with stratigraphic depth in the individual volcanic sequences separated by regional unconformities. Some sequences display metamorphic patterns transitional to ocean-floor and to geothermal field types, reflecting variations along and across the Andes in tectonic setting and thermal gradients.Volcanism was closely followed by metamorphism during each cycle characterizing the geological history of the Central Andes. The episodic nature of the metamorphism has led to breaks in metamorphic grade at regional unconformities and repetition of facies series, where strata of higher grade may even overlie those of lower grade. The existence of permeability-controlled distribution patterns of secondary minerals within individual flows shows that gradients of chemical activity, rate of reaction and Pfluid were acting, in addition to temperature and P,tot overall gradients, during the regional metamorphism. The alteration is accompanied by chemical changes and disturbances of the K-Ar and Rb-Sr isotope systems. Similarities between Mesozoic facies series in the western and eastern flanks of the Andes are consistent with a mechanism of ensialic spreading-subsidence.

Notes: An analytical study to evaluate quantitatively weak zoning of a garnet from a high-grade kinzigite has been performed with an electron microprobe. The technique consists of the reconstruction of a profile step-by-step by successive analyses performed during relatively long counting times (30 s), along a radial profile of 2,500 μm length. The successive analytical data along this profile are statistically treated by Fisher's test and compared with the χ2 values (Pearson's law). These statistical tests were applied to assess microprobe stability and analysis homogeneity, and as a consequence to assure high credibility of the radial variations of the garnet. From core to rim, and for each element, zoning appears as the radial juxtaposition of stationary Poissonian samples. These samples being associated, the garnet appears to be constituted of successive concentric domains with stationary compositions. Different substitutions between Mg, Fe, Mn and Ca are evidenced. Such an analytical approach to chemical zoning can be useful for understanding growth mechanisms, and the possible diffusion reactions with the environment at each growth step. In addition, such a procedure can be used to evaluate accurately the fluid content of cordierite, and to appreciate the nature of the fluids concerned. As an example, the fluid content of a cordierite from a similar high-grade kinzigite has been evaluated.

Notes: P-T conditions inferred from fluid inclusions in metamorphic rocks often disagree with the values predicted from mineral equilibria calculations. These observations suggest that inclusions formed during early stages of regional metamorphism continue to re-equilibrate during burial and subsequent uplift in response to differential pressure. P-T conditions accompanying burial and uplift were experimentally simulated by initially forming pure H2O inclusions in quartz at elevated temperatures and pressures, and then re-equilibrating the inclusions in the presence of a 20 wt% NaCl solution such that final confining pressures ranged from 5 kbar above to 4 kbar below the initial internal pressure of the inclusions at the temperature of re-equilibration.In all samples re-equilibrated at confining pressures below the internal pressure, some inclusions were formed that had compositions of 20 wt% NaCl and densities in accord with the final P-T conditions. Additionally, some inclusions were observed to contain fluids of intermediate salinities (between 0 and 20 wt% NaCl). Densities of these inclusions were also consistent with formation at the re-equilibration P-T conditions. The remainder of the fluid inclusions observed in these samples contained pure H2O and their homogenization temperatures corresponded to densities intermediate between the initial and final P-T conditions. In short-term experiments (7 days) where the initial internal overpressure exceeded 1 kbar, no inclusions were found that contained the original density and none were found to have totally re-equilibrated. Instead, most H2O inclusions re-equilibrated until their internal pressures were between ∼750 and 1500 bars above the confining pressure, regardless of the initial pressure differential. In a long-term experiment (52 days), inclusions re-equilibrated at a lower confining pressure than the initial internal pressure displayed homogenization temperatures corresponding to a range in final internal pressures between 0 kbar (i.e. total re-equilibration) and 1.2 kbar above the confining pressure.In experiments where the confining pressure during re-equilibration exceeded the initial internal pressure, densities of pure H2O inclusions increased to values intermediate between the initial and final P-T conditions. Additionally, these inclusions were generally surrounded by a three-dimensional halo of smaller inclusions, also of intermediate density, resulting in a texture similar to that previously ascribed to decrepitation from internal overpressure. In extreme cases where confining pressures were 4–5 kbar above the initial pressure, the parent inclusion almost completely closed leaving only the three-dimensional array of small (〈inlineGraphic alt="leqslant R: less-than-or-eq, slant" extraInfo="nonStandardEntity" href="urn:x-wiley:02634929:JMG243:les" location="les.gif"/〉5 μm) inclusions, the outline of which may be several times the volume of the original inclusion. Groups of such inclusions closely resemble textures commonly observed in medium- to high-grade metamorphic rocks.Inclusions containing 10 and 42 wt% NaCl solutions trapped at 600 °c and 3 kbar were re-equilibrated at 600 °c and 1 kbar for 5 days in dry argon to evaluate the importance of H2O diffusion as a mechanism of lowering the inclusion bulk density. Salinities of re-equilibrated inclusions obtained from freezing point depressions and halite dissolution temperatures indicate that original compositions were preserved. Density changes similar to those previously described were noted in these experiments, in inclusions showing no visible microfractures. Therefore, density variations observed in inclusions in this study, re-equilibrated under rapid deformation conditions, are considered to result from a change in the inclusion volume, without significant loss of contents by diffusion or leakage.

Notes: In the main Himalayan range in the Ladakh-Zanskar area, domal structures have been observed at structurally deeper levels in the tectonic unit of the Higher Himalayan Crystalline. Their formation occurred during a second, temperature-dominated phase (M2) of high-grade regional metamorphism, characterized by the semipelitic paragenesis of sillimanite-K-feldspar and incipient anatexis. The doming event reveals a local system of synmetamorphic uplift superimposed on a regional system of northeast-southwest trending compression. In the main Himalayan range the development of the dominant S2 foliation is related to deformation during the doming phase, which started early in the M2 event. The deformation propagated continuously north-east and south-west with time. In the north-east, on the northern slopes of the main Himalayan range, this deformation is expressed by extensional shear movements of the upper tectonic levels finally leading to the late- to postmetamorphic normal fault system of the Zanskar shear zone. Towards the south-west, deformation is expressed by compressional movements, e.g. at the Main Central Thrust (MCT) in the Kishtwar window area. The observed compression and extension is inferred to relate to an increased uplift of the domal bulges of the tectonic Kishtwar window and of the whole main Himalayan range.

Notes: The pressure-temperature and temperature-time paths derived for rocks in the Kohistan arc and adjacent Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif record the dynamics of the collision between the island arc and the Indian plate. Studies of P-T-t paths show that the Kohistan arc was thrust over the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif at least 25 Ma ago, but not more than 30–35 Ma ago. Rocks in the Kohistan arc followed decreasing pressure paths, with the early metamorphism beginning at high pressures (9.5 kbar) and later metamorphism occurring at 8.0 kbar. In contrast, rocks in the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif (Indian plate) experienced increasing pressure and temperature paths. Prior to thrusting, the massif was at low pressures (4.0 kbar) and low temperatures (450°c). Later, the pressure and temperature increased to 8 kbar and 580°c. The authors interpret the convergence (to approximately the same pressure and temperature) of the P-T paths in the two terranes as being the result of thrusting and thermal equilibration between the thrust sheets. 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages of hornblendes and other geochronological data suggest that the time of peak metamorphism and hence the completion of thickening was approximately 30–35 Ma ago.Temperature-time paths show that after thrusting, during the period 25–10 Ma, the Kohistan arc and Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif were uplifted at similar rates (0.5 km Ma). However, in the past 10 Ma the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif has been uplifted more rapidly than the adjacent Kohistan arc. Rapid uplift has been accommodated by late faults along the edge of the massif.

Notes: The Kanskaya formation in the Yenisey range, Eastern Siberia is a newly studied example of retrogression of granulite facies rocks. The formation consists of two stratigraphical units: the lower Kuzeevskaya group and the upper Atamanovskaya group. Rocks from both of these units show rare reaction textures such as replacement of cordierite by garnet, sillimanite and quartz, silimanite coronas around spinel and corundum, and garnet rims around plagioclase in metabasites, while plagioclase rims around garnet can be seen in associated metapelites. The paragenesis quartz + orthopyroxene + sillimanite is a feature of the Kuzeevskaya group. In many samples, chemical zoning of garnet and cordierite shows an increase in Mg from core to rim as well as the reverse.Biotite-garnet-cordierite-sillimanite-quartz as well as spinel±biotite-garnet°Cordierite±sillimanite-quartz assemblages were studied using geothermometers and geobarometers based on both exchange and net-transfer reactions (Perchuk & Lavrent'eva, 1983; Aranovich & Podlesskii, 1983; Gerya & Perchuk, 1989). Detailed investigation of 10 samples including 1000 microprobe analyses revealed decompression (first stage) followed by the near isobaric cooling of the granulites. From geological studies, the 7 km total thickness of the sequence closely corresponds to the pressure difference (∼ 2.2kbar) measured by geobarometers in the samples taken from different levels in the sequence. Individual samples yield P-T paths ranging from 100°C/kbar to 140°C/kbar depending on their locations with respect to the large Tarakskiy granite pluton. In places the 100°C/kbar path changed to the 140°C/kbar due to the influence of the intrusion. In a P-T diagram these trajectories are subparallel lines, whose P-T maxima define the Archaean geotherm between 3.1 and 2.7 Ga, determined isotopically. A petrological model for P-T evolution of the Kanskaya formation is proposed.

Notes: A method is proposed for adjusting the mass balance to characterize quantitatively the behaviour of minerals in anatexis. The method is based on an unconstrained simple mixing model that can be expressed as: 〈displayedItem type="mathematics" xml:id="mu1" numbered="no"〉〈mediaResource alt="image" href="urn:x-wiley:02634929:JMG619:JMG_619_mu1"/〉 where B, A0, and A1-n, are compositional vectors of segregate, source rock and source minerals, respectively. The most important concepts are: (1) degree of partial fusion: FMM= 1/a0; (2) mineral fractionation index: 〈displayedItem type="mathematics" xml:id="mu2" numbered="no"〉〈mediaResource alt="image" href="urn:x-wiley:02634929:JMG619:JMG_619_mu2"/〉 and (3) plagioclase differentiation index: 〈displayedItem type="mathematics" xml:id="mu3" numbered="no"〉〈mediaResource alt="image" href="urn:x-wiley:02634929:JMG619:JMG_619_mu3"/〉 .For a given mineral, the MFI values have the following meaning: (a) MFI 〈0: residual phase originated, at least partly, as a product of incongruent melting; (b) 0 〉 MFI 〈1: preferential retention in the residue; (c) MFI= 1: identical modal fraction in source and melt; (d) a0 〉 MFI 〉 1: preferential incorporation into the segregate, and (e) MFI 〉 a0: external contribution to the anatectic system defined by a0A0. To test the method and illustrate its use, it was applied to two real problems of partial melting in the Peña Negra Anatectic Complex (Central Spain). The first is a very simple case of segregation of a diktyonitic neosome from an orthogneiss through partial melting located in vertical shear zones. This process is characterized by: (1) FMM= 0.51; (2) active incorporation of K-feldspar, plagioclase and biotite into the segregate; (3) disequilibrium melting of plagioclase; (4) residual behaviour of quartz and ilmenite. The second case concerns the formation of a cordierite-bearing granite from granodioritoid diatexites through an anatectic process, whose most salient characteristics are: (1) FMM= 0.45; (2) incongruent melting of biotite; (3) residual behaviour of plagioclase, which melted with a PDI of 1.22; (4) preferential incorporation of quartz into the segregate; (5) total extraction of K-feldspar from the residue.

Notes: Graphitic metapelites from the Howard Ridge area, British Columbia, have been studied to estimate the pressure, temperature and fluid composition attending amphibolite facies metamorphism. Results from thermobarometric calculations indicate that P-T conditions of 610–625°C and 6.7kbar were reached during metamorphism. The equilibrium paragonite-quartz-albite-kyanite-H2O gives significantly different estimates of XH2O in the metamorphic fluid using different paragonite solution models. Estimates of XH2O range from a maximum of 0.93 (Eugster et al., 1972) to a minimum of 0.29 (Chatterjee & Flux, 1986). H2O estimates obtained using the Eugster et al. (1972) and Chatterjee & Froese (1975) solution models give similar results (i.e. 0.8 ± 0.1 versus 0.7 ± 0.1, respectively). Non-ideal mixing in the C-O-H system provides an XH2O estimate of 0.74 at H2O maximum conditions, 0.5 log units below the QFM buffer. The Chatterjee & Flux (1986) paragonite solution model provides unrealistically low estimates of XH2O relative to other paragonite solution models, C-O-H equilibria, and published fluid inclusion and mineral equilibria data. Consistent estimates of fluid composition between C-O-H and mineral equilibria suggest that a H2O-rich fluid attended metamorphism of graphitic metapelites at Howard Ridge.

Notes: Rocks from the metamorphic basement of the Azuero and Sona peninsulas, Panama, consist of schistose amphibolites and minor amounts of metasediment. In the Sona peninsula, strongly zoned amphiboles indicate that the amphibolites followed a progressive anticlockwsie P-T path prograde from low T/low P to medium T/high P, and are retrograded into the greenschist facies. In contrast, the amphibolites of the Azuero peninsula are affected by a low to medium T/low P metamorphism.The metamorphic events of the Sona amphibolites occurred prior to the intra-Senonian tectonic phase which affects the Mesozoic formations along the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Panama. The regional significance of such a basement in Isthmian Central America is discussed.

Notes: Microstructural and petrological data from the Jumping Brook metamorphic suite, western Cape Breton Highlands, suggest that a single episode of syntectonic prograde metamorphism, followed by uplift, cooling and associated retrogression, affected these rocks during mid-Palaeozoic times. Microstructures indicative of progressive crenulation foliation development can be traced from low-grade (chlorite zone) through high-grade (kyanite zone) rocks, allowing a clear sequence of porphyroblast growth to be established. Metamorphic reactions and P-T calculations suggest metamorphic conditions of 700-750°C at 8-10 kbar were achieved in kyanite zone rocks. Although a complete P-T-t path was not defined, combined petrological and geochronological data can be used to constrain computed P-T-t models. These models suggest that a component of post-metamorphic tectonic exhumation is required to explain the observed times of cooling and uplift. The microstructural and petrological data to not support the interpretation that the high-grade rocks represent pre-existing crystalline basement. Indeed, the metamorphic history, geochronology and computed tectonic models all point to a single, short-lived episode of Silurian-Devonian volcanism, intrusion, convergence, regional metamorphism and uplift, probably resulting from collision tectonics at an irregular continental margin.

Notes: Dissolution and solution transfer during deformation/metamorphism are controlled by the partitioning of deformation into progressive shearing and shortening components. Progressive shearing is readily accommodated by slip on the planar crystal structure of phyllosilicates and graphite without accumulating dislocation density gradients across grain boundaries.Progressive shortening is accommodated by the cores of most other minerals (including sulphides). These minerals develop strain, and hence dislocation density gradients, on their rims due to progressive shearing along grain boundaries. These gradients are particularly large when the mineral abuts phyllosilicate or graphite. The resulting chemical potential gradients between the core and rim drive dissolution, causing removal of the highly strained grain margins.Removal of dissolved material by solution transfer is aided by the geometry of shearing of phyllosilicates and graphite around other grains in an active anastomosing foliation. Interlayers and interfaces on boundaries lying at a low angle to the direction of shearing, and oriented relative to the sense of shear such that they can open, gape by small amounts. Water present in these interlayer spaces becomes destructured, considerably enhancing diffusion rates along the foliation.Penetrative volume loss, especially in deforming/metamorphosing pelitic rocks, is large at all metamorphic grades, increasing and becoming more penetrative with depth to at least the transition into granulite and eclogite facies. Transference of material by fluid flow from deep to high levels in the earth's crust is precluded because thousands to tens of thousands of rock volumes of fluid are required, necessitating continual recirculation of fluid from shallow to deep crustal levels in one large or several small sets of cells, unless some extremely large-scale form of fluid channelling is possible. Reassessment of diffusion mechanisms, and hence rates, during deformation and pervasive foliation generation in large volumes of rock where fluid channeling cannot provide enough fluid, indicates that diffusion can proceed with sufficient rapidity that massive recirculation of fluid is no longer required. The amount of fluid can be reduced sufficiently to allow large volume losses by a one-way flow of fluid to the earth's surface, in deforming/metamorphosing environments where the fluid pressure equals or exceeds the hydrostatic pressure.Deformation partitioning-controlled dissolution progressively changes the bulk chemistry of a rock containing phyllosilicates or graphite during deformation/metamorphism because matrix minerals, other than phyllosilicates and graphite, are preferentially removed. The large size of porphyroblasts, if present, tends to preserve them from dissolution. Hence, the bulk chemistry operative during subsequent porphyroblast growth can have changed considerably from that operative when the first porphyroblasts grew, in rocks in which bedding is still well preserved.

Notes: Low-pressure granulite facies metasedimentary gneisses exposed in MacRobertson Land, east Antarctica, include hercynitic spinel-bearing metapelitic gneisses. Peak metamorphic mineral assemblages include spinel + rutile + ilmenite + sillimanite + garnet, spinel + ilmenite + sillimanite + garnet + cordierite, ortho-pyroxene + magnetite + ilmenite + garnet, spinel + cordierite + biotite + ilmenite and orthopyroxene + cordierite + biotite, each with quartz, K-feldspar and melt. The presence of garnet + biotite- and cordierite + orthopyroxene-bearing assemblages implies crossing tie-lines in AFM projection for the K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O (KFMASH) system. This apparent contradiction, and the presence of spinel, rutile and ilmenite in the assemblages, is acounted for by using the KFMASH-TiO2-O2 system, i.e. AFM + TiO2+ Fe2O3. We derive a petrogenetic grid for this system, applicable to low-pressure granulite facies metamorphic conditions. Retrograde assemblages are interpreted from corona textures on hercynitic spinel and Fe-Ti oxides. The relative positions of the peak and retrograde metamorphic assemblages on the petrogenetic grid suggest that corona development occurred during essentially isobaric cooling.

Notes: Sequential reaction textures in Archaean garnet-corundum-sapphirine granulites from the Central Zone of the Limpopo Belt document a progression from early, coarse-grained, high-pressure (P 〉 9.5 kbar) granulite-facies assemblages (M1) to late, low-pressure (P 〈6 kbar) granulite-facies sub-assemblages (M2).The stable M1 assemblage was garnet (57% pyrope; Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 62) + sapphirine + corundum + gedrite + phlogopite + rutile. Late-M1 boron-free kornerupine grew at the expense of garnet and corundum, and coexisted with garnet, sapphirine and gedrite. Partial or complete breakdown of coarse garnet and kornerupine during M2 resulted in the development of pseudomorphs and coronas consisting of fine-grained symplectic intergrowths of cordierite, gedrite and sapphirine (later, spinel).The majority of reaction textures can be explained in terms of a stable reaction sequence, and a model time-sequence of mineral facies can be constructed. When compared with a qualitative petrogenetic grid of (Fe, Mg)-discontinuous reactions in the FMASH multisystem sapphirine-garnet-corundum-spinel-cordierite-gedrite-kornerupine, the facies-sequence indicates decompression at essentially constant T assuming constant a(H2O).Exhumation of M1 corundum inclusions during M2 breakdown of kornerupine resulted in production of metastable spinel by a disequilibrium reaction with gedrite. A second disequilibrium reaction of the spinel with cordierite produced sapphirine. The operation of such reaction while pressure was decreasing (the opposite dP from that implied by the texture if assumed to be the product of an equilibrium reaction) has serious implications for the use of reaction textures in the construction of P-T vectors.Garnet-biotite thermometry on garnet interiors and phlogopite inclusions in corundum yields temperatures of ca. 850°C for the M1 stage. A minimum late-M1 pressure of ca. 7 kbar is indicated by the former association of kornerupine and corundum. Relict M1 kyanites reported by other workers indicate a minumum early-M1 pressure of 9.5 kbar, implying metamorphism at depths of at least 33 km (probably 〈inlineGraphic alt="geqslant R: gt-or-equal, slanted" extraInfo="nonStandardEntity" href="urn:x-wiley:02634929:JMG383:ges" location="ges.gif"/〉 38km). The high-pressure granulite-facies metamorphism was followed by an almost isothermal pressure decrease of 〉 5 kbar, indicative of rapid uplift. The P-T path is interpreted as the product of a single metamorphic cycle which probably took place in response to tectonic thickening of the crust. Such a process contrasts with the extensional origin recently proposed for isobarically cooled granulite-facies terranes.

Notes: The early metamorphic history of high-grade exotic blocks in the Franciscan Complex may be more complicated than previously supposed. The different assemblages of high-grade glaucophane schist, eclogite, amphibolite and hornblende schist are commonly considered to have formed at the same time from essentially unmetamorphosed oceanic crust. However, new textural and mineralogical data presented here suggest that high-grade glaucophane schist and eclogite have replaced an earlier epidote-amphibolite facies assemblage that is identical to the primary assemblages in many of the hornblende-rich blocks. At least some of the hornblende-rich blocks may therefore be well-preserved remnants of the earlier metamorphism. Comparison of the mineral assemblages and element partitioning in the mixed-assemblage blocks suggests that the glaucophane schist and eclogite metamorphism took place at slightly lower temperatures but at the same or higher pressures than the earlier, hornblende-forming stage.

Notes: The High Himalayan Crystallines (HHC) of SE Zanskar consist of biotite paragneisses, of orthogneisses that derive from early-Palaeozoic granitoids, of minor metabasics and of post-metamorphic leucogranites of Miocene age.Two main metamorphic events have been documented in the HHC. The first event occurred at P= 12.0 ± 0.5 kbar and T= 750 ± 50° C in rare metabasics intruded by early-Palaeozoic granitoids. In the biotite paragneisses, thermobarometric estimates of the first event point to comparable T at P 4–5 kbar lower. The first event is followed by a pervasive syn-tectonic crystallization characterized by lower P and T. On the basis of the cooling ages of the metamorphic minerals and on the geological evidence, the second event is referred to the Tertiary Himalayan crystallization. Further petrological and geochronological studies are necessary to prove whether a few mineral relics ascribed to the first event define a polyphase Himalayan evolution or if they record the incomplete obliteration of an older history during the Himalayan event.The HHC of SE Zanskar show a decrease in metamorphic grade from the middle structural levels upward, close to the Kade unit, and downward, close to the Lesser Himalaya (from sillimanite-K-feldspar-biotite-bearing assemblages to kyanite-staurolite-muscovite-bearing assemblages). This metamorphic zonation is probably a consequence of the polyphase history of intracontinental thrusts and of the tectonic emplacement of hot crustal slabs within shallower and colder thrust sheets at relatively late stages of the continental collision between India and Eurasia.

Notes: Blueschists occur along the Indus Suture Zone in Ladakh as tectonic thrust slices, as isolated blocks within mélange units and as pebbles within continental detrital series. In the Shergol-Baltikar section high-pressure rocks within the Mélange unit lie between the Dras-Naktul-Nindam nappes in the north and the Lamayuru units in the south. The blueschists are imbricated with mélange formation of probably upper Cretaceous age. They are overlain discordantly by the Shergol conglomerate of post Eocene (Oligo-Miocene ?) age. Blueschist lithologies are dominated by volcanoclastic rock sequences of basic material with subordinate interbedding of cherts and minor carbonates. Mineral assemblages in metabasic rocks are characterized by lawsonite-glaucophane/crossite-Na-pyroxene-chlorite-phengite-titanite ± albite ± stilpnomelane. In the quartz bearing assemblages garnet is present but omphacite absent. P-T estimates indicate temperatures of 350 to 420°c and pressures around 9–11 kbar. Geochemical investigations show the primary alkaline character of the blueschist, which suggests an oceanic island or a transitional MORB type primary geotectonic setting. K/Ar isotopic investigations yield middle Cretaceous ages for both whole rocks and minerals. Subduction related HP-metamorphism affecting the Mesozoic Tethyan oceanic crust developed contemporaneously with magmatism in the Dras volcanic are and the Ladakh batholith. Subsequent collision of India with Asia obducted relics of subduction zone material which later became involved in nappe emplacement during the Himalayan mountain building.

Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.

Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.

Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.

Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.

Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.

Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notes: Mineral assemblages in pelitic, mafic, calcareous and ultramafic rocks within a metamorphosed tectonic mélange indicate that the Marble Mountain terrane and adjacent Western Hayfork subterrane (northern California) underwent regional low- to medium-pressure amphibolite facies metamorphism. Metamorphic conditions estimated by comparison of observed assemblages with experimentally-determined reaction boundaries and by geothermometry constrain metamorphic temperatures between about 500° and 570°C. The occurrence of andalusite in regionally metamorphosed pelites indicates pressures below about 370 MPa. Metabasite amphibole compositions also suggest low to intermediate metamorphic pressures.Metaserpentinites containing the upper amphibolite facies assemblage (olivine + enstatite + anthophyllite) are found locally within the study area and have been reported previously by other workers elsewhere in the Marble Mountain terrane. These assemblages may reflect higher temperatures of recrystallization than assemblages in surrounding rocks and may represent vestiges of an earlier high-temperature metamorphic event undergone by the ultramafic rocks prior to incorporation in the mélange.Although the age of the low- to intermediate-pressure metamorphism is poorly constrained, cross-cutting plutons indicate that metamorphism must be older than about 162 Ma. Therefore this regional metamorphic event, which probably marks the accretion of these terranes to the North American continental margin, is older than the currently accepted 151–147 Ma age of the Nevadan event in the Klamath Mountains. The inferred low to intermediate pressures of metamorphism and the lithologies of the protoliths suggest a near-arc tectonic setting and refute a subduction zone model for this event.

Notes: In regionally metamorphosed pelites of the Mount Raleigh pendant, the fibrolite isograd occurs 5km downgrade from the sillimanite isograd. Fibrolite formed from the decomposition of biotite, a reaction that probably resulted from the late-stage influx of acidic volatiles. In contrast, sillimanite formed by the direct,‘volume-for-volume’replacement of andalusite. Andalusite and sillimanite coexist in a 3 km-wide zone above the sillimanite isograd. Electron probe analyses of these phases reveal low minor element contents and yield KD[=X] values close to unity; the low Fe2O3 contents are compatible with reducing conditions implied by the ubiquity of graphite. Because KD→ 1.0, the zone of coexisting andalusite + sillimanite cannot be attributed to multivariancy resulting from partitioning of minor elements between these phases. Rather, the metastable persistence of andalusite into the sillimanite P-T stability field is suggested. The modal proportions of sillimanite versus andalusite imply that minimal (〈5%) and alusitesillimanite reaction occurred in a zone 1.5km above the sillimanite isograd; in contrast, there was a marked increase in reaction progress immediately above this zone. With an estimated thermal gradient (in the plane of exposure) of approximately 20°C/km, the 1.5 km-wide zone of nil reaction suggests that the andalusite-sillimanite equilibrium boundary was overstepped by about 30 °C before significant reaction occurred. Inclusion-rich areas in andalusite provided favourable sites for sillimanite nucleation; however, the growth of sillimanite may have been impeded by‘pinning’of sillimanite grain boundaries by inclusions.

Notes: Thermobarometric studies on various granulite facies areas along the Prydz Bay coast, East Antarctica (73°-79°E, 68°-70°S), show that, at around 1100 Ma, during a late Proterozoic orogeny, the rocks of the Larsemann Hills suffered a lower pressure metamorphic peak than the surrounding areas. Along the Prydz Bay coast, the rocks affected by this event include parts of the Vestfold Hills block plus all of the Rauer Group, the Larsemann Hills and the Munro Kerr Mountains. The dykes in the south-west corner of the Vestfold Hills were recrystallized during this event with little deformation at temperatures not quite as high as in the areas further south-west (650°C, 6.5 kbar) (Collerson et al., 1983), the Rauer Group was metamorphosed at 800°C and 7.5 kbar (Harley, 1987a), the Larsemann Hills at 750°C and 4.5 kbar, and the Munro Kerr Mountains probably at around 850°C and 5 kbar. Retrograde equilibration in the different areas occurred during decompression to about 10 km depth in all areas, followed by isobaric cooling at this depth.This paper shows that the peak metamorphism in the Larsemann Hills occurred at a pressure which is too low to have been the consequence of thermal relaxation of overthickened crust with normal mantle heat flow. Although other areas in Prydz Bay were metamorphosed at sufficiently high pressures so that their decompression paths are not inconsistent with a continental collision model, the inferred pre-metamorphic peak histories and the requirement of consistency with the Larsemann Hills, make it unlikely that collision followed by erosion-driven decompression is an appropriate model. We suggest that the thermal regime of the crust in the Larsemann Hills region was controlled by a perturbation in the asthenosphere, with magma invasion of the crust. We suggest that the 500 Ma event, represented in Prydz Bay by granitic outcrops at Landing Bluff and by several K/Ar ages from the Larsemann Hills area, was responsible for the final excavation of the terrane.

Notes: Detailed microstructural analysis of inclusion trails in hundreds of garnet porphyroblasts from rocks where spiral-shaped inclusion trails are common indicates that spiral-shaped trails did not form by rotation of the growing porphyroblasts relative to geographic coordinates. They formed instead by progressive growth by porphyroblasts over several sets of near-orthogonal foliations that successively overprint one another. The orientations of these near-orthogonal foliations are alternately near-vertical and near-horizontal in all porphyroblasts examined. This provides very strong evidence for lack of porphyroblast rotation.The deformation path recorded by these porphyroblasts indicates that the process of orogenesis involves a multiply repeated two-stage cycle of: (1) crustal shortening and thickening, with the development of a near-vertical foliation with a steep stretching lineation; followed by (2) gravitational instability and collapse of this uplifted pile with the development of a near-horizontal foliation, gravitational spreading, near-coaxial vertical shortening and consequent thrusting on the orogen margins. Correlation of inclusion trail overprinting relationships and asymmetry in porphyroblasts with foliation overprinting relationships observed in the field allows determination of where the rocks studied lie and have moved within an orogen. This information, combined with information about chemical zoning in porphyroblasts, provides details about the structural/metamorphic (P-T-t) paths the rocks have followed.The ductile deformation environment in which a porphyroblast can rotate relative to geographic coordinates during orogenesis is spatially restricted in continental crust to vertical, ductile tear/transcurrent faults across which there is no component of bulk shortening or transpression.

Notes: The western metamorphic belt of the Coast Plutonic Complex, south-east Alaska and adjacent British Columbia, contains strongly deformed rocks and a prominent topographic low: the Coast Range megalineament. Near Holkham Bay, south-east Alaska, the lineament separates the western metamorphic belt into: a western low-grade (greenschist facies) terrane, and an eastern medium-grade (amphibolite facies) terrane.Sphalerite compositions of grains in direct contact with pyrite and pyrrhotite in chlorite-muscovite zone rocks in the low-grade terrane give pressures of about 8 kbar; compatible with pressures of 8-10 kbar at 500°C calculated from plagioclase-biotite-garnet-muscovite assemblages adjacent to the Windham Bay pluton about 15 km away. A pressure of 4.8 ± 0.7 kbar was calculated from sphalerite compositions in staurolite zone rocks east of the Coast Range megalineament. This is indistinguishable from pressures of 4.8 ± 1 kbar at 585°C and 5.1 ± 1 kbar at 680°C (plagioclase-garnet-aluminum silicate-quartz equilibria), and 4.1 ± 1 kbar at 585°C (plagioclase-biotite-garnet-muscovite equilibrium) determined for the medium-grade terrane. An identical pressure of 4.8 ± 0.7 kbar was calculated from sphalerite compositions in biotite zone rocks adjacent to the lineament; this is considerably higher than a pressure of 3.1 ± 1 kbar at 525°C obtained using plagioclase-biotite-garnet-muscovite geobarometry from shear zones within the lineament. The discrepancy may be explained by later equilibration of mineral phases within the shear zones.The geothermobarometry suggests relatively low temperatures and high pressures for the low-grade terrane (6-10 kbar), and intermediate temperatures and pressures for the medium-grade terrane to the east (4-6 kbar). Comparison of the barometers indicate that sphalerite can be used to estimate metamorphic pressures, similar to those estimated from silicate mineral chemistry when pyrrhotite-sphalerite-pyrite assemblages are used.

Notes: Metabasalts and metasedimentary rocks of the Devonian Central Metamorphic Belt comprise the lower plate of the east-dipping Trinity thrust system in the Klamath province. An inverted metamorphic gradient is preserved in the Central Metamorphic Belt; metamorphic conditions decrease from amphibolite facies adjacent to the Trinity thrust, through albite-epidote amphibolite facies, to upper greenschist facies at the base of the Central Metamorphic Belt. Mineral chemistry, mineral assemblages and limited geothermometry suggest that peak metamorphic conditions decrease structurally downward from 650 ± 50° C at the Trinity thrust to 500 ± 50° C at the base of the Central Metamorphic Belt, under pressures of 5 ± 3 kbar. Synmetamorphic Ab + Qtz veins, up to 1 m thick, increase in abundance towards the Trinity thrust. Infiltration of H2O-CO2 fluids derived from prograde devolatilization reactions in the Central Metamorphic Belt caused extensive hydration and metasomatism of the Trinity peridotite; the hanging wall block of the Trinity thrust zone.Geological relationships and the preserved inverted metamorphic gradient suggest that the Central Metamorphic Belt formed in an east-dipping Devonian subduction zone in an oceanic environment. The Central Metamorphic Belt appears to represent a discrete slice of accreted oceanic crust several km thick, rather than progressively accreted material. Metamorphic pressures recorded by the Central Metamorphic Belt are intermediate between the ∼2 kbar pressures recorded in dynamothermal aureoles beneath obducted ophiolites and the 7–10 kbar preserved in subduction-related inverted metamorphic gradients. The lack of blueschist facies mineral assemblages in the Central Metamorphic Belt may possibly be explained by an anomalously warm geotherm prior to subduction or early shear heating prior to the arrival of wet rocks at depth.

Notes: The Bunger Hills, East Antarctica, experienced a low-pressure granulite facies orogenic event during the Proterozoic. The stable coexistence of the S1 foliation-parallel M1 assemblages, garnet-cordierite-spinel-ilmenite and garnet-sillimanite-spinel-ilmenite-rutile, in quartz-bearing pelitic gneisses is evidence for metamorphic peak pressures of around 4 kbar during M1, at temperatures of about 800°C. The growth of massive reaction coronas of garnet and cordierite around hercynitic spinel and iron-titanium oxides during M2 is evidence for the destabilization of the M1 assemblages during compression. Thermodynamic calculations on the M2 assemblages indicate formation pressures of 6–7 kbar at temperatures of about 750°C. Thus, the gneisses from the Bunger Hills indicate about 2 kbar or more of compression during minimal cooling. Such a P-T path is different from that of many other Proterozoic terranes which are characterized by isobaric cooling or decompression. A large charnockite body, which is undeformed, was intruded at ∼950°C, towards the end of compression.The low pressures during M1 can be best explained by metamorphism at mid-crustal levels in thin continental crust in thin lithosphere above a thermal perturbation in the underlying asthenosphere. We suggest that the compression during cooling was a result of gravitational backflow in which the action of body forces between adjacent normal thickness crust and the thin crust of the Bunger Hills is 'switched on’by the thermal perturbation. Within such a model, the timing of intrusion of the charnockite exposed in the Bunger Hills is consistent with its generation by partial melting during the metamorphic maximum of the lowermost crust.

Notes: There is no significant difference in the diffusion profiles across albite-adularia bicrystals that were simultaneously deformed at a strain rate of 10-6S-1 and those from hydrostatic experiments at the same conditions (1500 MPa and 1000°C for 156 h). This indicates that the bulk alkali diffusion rate, which is the sum of lattice diffusion (D, 1) and dislocation pipe diffusion (Dp), is not significantly enhanced by dislocations at these conditions, and that the maximum value for the ratio of Dp/D1 is about 105. This is equal to the value previously reported for‘oxygen’diffusion in albite. If this ratio is independent of temperature, the contribution of either static (pre-deformed) or moving (syn-deformed) dislocations to the bulk diffusion rate of alkalis is probably minor at all metamorphic conditions. For Al and Si diffusion the ratio of Dp/D1 may be larger if D1 is lower. Thus a significant contribution from dislocations to bulk diffusion cannot be ruled out, especially during simultaneous deformation.

Notes: In the Woodroffe Thrust mylonite zone, central Australia, recrystallization in plagioclase and K-feldspar involved subgrain rotation, assisted by grain-boundary or kink band boundary bulging, without contribution from a change in the chemical composition from host grains to new grains. The size of subgrains and new grains changes across the mylonite zone, apparently as a function of the strain rate and the H2O content of the rock.The partitioning of deformation into zones of progressive shearing and progressive shortening controls the sites of recovery and recrystallization in feldspar during mylonitization. The size of feldspar porphyroclasts in well developed mylonites is governed by the scale of deformation partitioning reached in the earlier stages of mylonitization, before the formation of a large proportion of fine-grained matrix that can accommodate the progressive shearing component of the deformation.Recrystallization occurs in microcline, apparently without involving a translation to a monoclinic structure, as microcline-twinned new grains are common adjacent to microcline-twinned host grains. K-feldspar triclinicity values calculated from XRD traces increase from the margins to the interior of the mylonite zone, in conjunction with deformation intensity. K-feldspar host grains locally have cores of orthoclase or untwinned microcline, surrounded by mantles of twinned microcline, suggesting a relationship between the presence of microcline twinning and the degree of K-feldspar triclinicity.

Notes: The decrepitation behaviour of fluid inclusions in quartz at one atmosphere confining pressure has been evaluated using pure H2O synthetic inclusions formed by healing fractures in natural quartz. Three different modes of non-elastic deformation, referred to as stretching, leakage or partial decrepitation, and total decrepitation have been observed. The internal pressure required to initiate non-elastic deformation is inversely related to inclusion size according to the equation:internal pressure (kbar) = 4.26 D-0.423where D is the inclusion diameter in microns. Regularly shaped inclusions require a higher internal pressure to initiate non-elastic deformation than do irregularly shaped inclusions of similar size. Heating inclusions through the α/β quartz inversion results in mechanical instability in the quartz crystal and leads to mass decrepitation of inclusions owing to structural mismatches generated by pressure gradients in the quartz around each inclusion.Long-term heating experiments (∼2 years) suggest that the internal pressure required to initiate non-elastic deformation does not decrease significantly with time and indicates that short-lived thermal fluctuations in natural systems should not alter the inclusion density and homogenization temperature. Inclusions that do exhibit decreased density (higher homogenization temperature) are, however, always accompanied by a change in shape from irregular to that of a negative crystal.Observations of this study are consistent with elasticity theory related to fracture generation and propagation around inclusions in minerals. These results indicate that an inclusion will not be influenced by a neighbouring inclusion, or other defect in the host phase, as long as the distance between the two is 〉2–4 diameters of the larger of the two inclusions.

Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.

Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.

Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.

Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.

Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.

Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.

Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.

Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.

Notes: Monte Carlo methods in risk assessment are finding increasingly widespread application. With the recognition that inputs may be correlated, the incorporation of such correlations into the simulation has become important. Most implementations rely upon the method of Iman and Conover for generating correlated random variables. In this work, alternative methods using copulas are presented for deriving correlated random variables. It is further shown that the particular algorithm or assumption used may have a substantial effect on the output results, due to differences in higher order bivariate moments.

Notes: In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include : guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.

Notes: This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters andparameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:〈list xml:id="l2" style="custom"〉•Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per bodyweight)•Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate•General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilutionvia Distribution Volume (e.g., intial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)•Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)•Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration•Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)•Functional Reserve Capacity-Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process-differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimatingeffective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants thatare thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

Notes: Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.

Notes: The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristicsof those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for agiven constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions providedinformation beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).

Notes: Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives.A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.

Notes: The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.