ALBERT

Description: The influence that active regions have upon the solar constant is discussed. Sunspots appear to lower the solar constant for the few days in which they are located near central meridian. This raises the possibility that an 11-year, solar-cycle-related depression in the solar constant may occur. Recent findings concerning the physics of active regions suggest that sunspots and faculae are largely surface features. Within that surface faculae reradiate, within a few weeks, the 'missing energy' associated with sunspots. This is consistent with the observations showing that the solar constant does not have an 11-year cycle-related depression that some authors predicted. However, there is a secular variation in the solar constant, whose explanation is not completely understood.

Description: The present MSFC Vector Magnetograph has sufficient spatial resolution (2.7 arcsec pixels) and sensitivity to the transverse field (the noise level is about 100 gauss) to map the transverse field in active regions accurately enough to reveal key aspects of the sheared magnetic fields commonly found at flare sites. From the measured shear angle along the polarity inversion line in sites that flared and in other shear sites that didn't flare, evidence is found that a sufficient condition for a flare to occur in 1000 gauss fields in and near sunspots is that both: (1) the maximum shear angle exceed 85 degrees; and (2) the extent of strong shear (shear angle of greater than 80 degrees) exceed 10,000 km.

Description: A description of AOIPS/2, an interactive hardware and software system to process, integrate, and display meteorological data is presented. The AOIPS/2 objectives and functional specifications are given. The hardware system architecture and work stations and the software architecture and special features are described. A summary is given of the software system and its main menu.

Description: The role of eddy momentum fluxes in the general circulation was investigated using a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model described by Yao and Stone (1987), which is almost two orders of magnitude faster than the three-dimensional climate model of Hansen et al. (1983). Results show that the vertical structure of the meridional eddy flux has relatively little impact on the general circulation, presumably because the vertical structure is strongly constrained by the thermal wind relation and surface friction. On the other hand, it was found that, in order to simulate accurately the general circulation and its response to climate changes, parameterization of the vertically integrated meridional eddy flux of angular momentum is necessary. A new parameterization of this eddy momentum transport was carried out, which is intended to represent the transport due to large-scale transient eddies arising from baroclinic instability.

Description: Histograms and contour maps describing the daily rainfall characteristics of a northwestern Peru area most severely affected by the 1982-1983 El Nino event were prepared from daily rainfall data obtained from 66 stations in this area during the El Nino event, and during the same 8-month intervals for the two years preceding and following the event. These data were analyzed, in conjunction with the anlysis of visible and IR satellite images, for cloud characteristics and structure. The results present a comparison of the rainfall characteristics as a function of elevation, geographic location, and the time of year for the El Nino and non-El Nino periods.

Description: Using data collected by SMMR on board the Nimbus 7 satellite, estimates of atmospheric water vapor were obtained over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1982-1983 El Nino. A parameterization that physically relates the synoptic and convective scales was employed, making it possible to explicitly resolve convective elements and rain cells for poorly resolvable measurements. The derived water vapor flux convergences were analyzed during the El Nino episode to map the inferred deep convection and estimated rainfall over regions impacted by the event, and the inferred monthly rainfall amounts were compared with observations for 14 island and coastal stations in the Pacific Ocean.

Description: The cycles of the water isotopic species (HDO and H2O-18) have been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The results of a three-year simulation for present-day conditions are discussed, with special emphasis on the comparison between predicted and observed isotopic distributions for both the seasonal and annual time scales. The observed seasonal cycles are generally well simulated. For the annual scale the observed linear relationship between delta O-18 and the surface temperature at middle and high latitudes, as well as the absence of any correlation between these fields in tropical and equatorial regions, are properly obeyed by the GCM simulation. In the tropical and equatorial regions the delta O-18 patterns for both observations and the GCM are influenced by the amount of rainfall. There is excellent agreement between the simulated and observed delta D-delta O-18 relationship throughout the world.

Description: An analysis is presented of a sudden stratospheric warming event which occurred spontaneously during a general circulation model simulation of the global atmospheric circulation. Two separate warming pulses exhibit the same dynamical evolution with a 'cycle' of about two weeks. Two distinct phases of the warming cycle are apparent: (1) the generation of an intense localized warm cell in conjunction with significant adiabatic heating associated with cross-isobar flow which has been induced by vertically propagating long wave disturbances; and (2) the northward transport of that warm cell via advection by the essentially geostrophic windfield corresponding to an intense, offset polar cyclone, in conjunction with a strong Aleutian anticyclone. During the first warming pulse in January, a moderate Aleutian anticyclone was in place prior to the warming cycle and was intensified by interaction with an eastward traveling anticyclone induced by the differential advection of the warm cell. The second warming pulse occurred in early February with a strong Aleutian anticyclone already established. In contrast to the January event, the warming in February culminated with reversal of the zonal westerlies to easterlies over a significant depth of the stratosphere.

Description: A flaring solar atmosphere is modeled assuming classical thermal transport, locally limited thermal transport, and nonlocal thermal transport. The classical, local, and nonlocal expressions for the heat flux yield significantly different temperature, density, and velocity profiles throughout the rise phase of the flare. Evaporation of chromospheric material begins earlier in the nonlocal case than in the classical or local calculations, but reaches much lower upward velocities. Much higher coronal temperatures are achieved in the nonlocal calculations owing to the combined effects of delocalization and flux limiting. The peak velocity and momentum are roughly the same in all three cases. A more impulsive energy release influences the evolution of the nonlocal model more than the classical and locally limited cases.

Description: A model of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is described that produces random spatial rainfall patterns with these characteristics: (1) the model is defined on a grid with each grid point representing the average rain rate over the surrounding grid box, (2) rain occurs at any one grid point, on average, a specified percentage of the time and has a lognormal probability distribution, (3) spatial correlation of the rainfall can be arbitrarily prescribed, and (4) time stepping is carried out so that large-scale features persist longer than small-scale features. Rain is generated in the model from the portion of a correlated Gaussian random field that exceeds a threshold. The portion of the field above the threshold is rescaled to have a lognormal probability distribution. Sample output of the model designed to mimic radar observations of rainfall during the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE), is shown. The model is intended for use in evaluating sampling strategies for satellite remote-sensing of rainfall and for development of algorithms for converting radiant intensity received by an instrument from its field of view into rainfall amount.

Description: The GATE rainfall data set is used in a statistical study to estimate the sampling errors that might be expected for the type of snapshot sampling that a low earth-orbiting satellite makes. For averages over the entire 400-km square and for the duration of several weeks, strong evidence is found that sampling errors less than 10 percent can be expected in contributions from each of four rain rate categories which individually account for about one quarter of the total rain.

Description: Under stable meteorological conditions the effect of ship-stack exhaust on overlying clouds was detected in daytime satellite images as an enhancement in cloud reflectivity at 3.7 micrometers. The exhaust is a source of cloud-condensation nuclei that increases the number of cloud droplets while reducing droplet size. This reduction in droplet size causes the reflectivity at 3.7 micrometers to be greater than the levels for nearby noncontaminated clouds of similar physical characteristics. The increase in droplet number causes the reflectivity at 0.63 micrometer to be significantly higher for the contaminated clouds despite the likelihood that the exhaust is a source of particles that absorb at visible wavelengths. The effect of aerosols on cloud reflectivity is expected to have a larger influence on the earth's albedo than that due to the direct scattering and absorption of sunlight by the aerosols alone.

Description: Techniques to identify sources of electric current systems and their channels of flow in solar active regions are explored. Measured photospheric vector magnetic fields together with high-resolution white-light and H-alpha filtergrams provide the data base to derive the current systems in the photosphere and chromosphere. As an example, the techniques are then applied to infer current systems in AR 2372 in early April 1980.

Description: Radar backscattering coefficient measurements by spaceborne scatterometers are presently simulated for the case of nonuniform wind fields, by means of a detailed numerical integration of the radar equation. The winds thus estimated are then compared with a nominal field which is defined as the average wind vector over the wind cell. The simulation results obtained for the NASA scatterometer are presented for cases of random wind fields whose spectra are consistent with the Seasat scatterometer sea surface wind spectrum. When the nonuniformity is small, system noise dominates the wind error; wind error degradation is therefore small for both perfect and imperfect coregistration cases. When it is relatively large, however, the wind error degradation persistently increases for both perfect and imperfect coregistrations.

Description: The application of the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder to the EOS and Space Station is proposed. The use of pulsed, CO2 Doppler lidar to measure wind is described. The design requirements for a Doppler lidar operating in space, and the need to study the global distribution of naturally occurring atmospheric aerosols are discussed. The space-based Doppler lidar wind data will be useful for improving the skill of numerical weather predictions, for studying large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics, and for analyzing global biogeochemical and hydrological cycles.

Description: Data collected with the Advanced Microwave Moisture Sounder (AMMS), which operates in the 183.3 GHz range, are compared to measurements collected at 22 GHz in order to show that the 183 GHz measurements are more sensitive to total precipitable water (W) values than the 22 GHz measurements. Radiative transfer calculations for the upwelling microwave emission from the ocean surface were performed at the AMMS frequencies with a variety of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. The derived brightness temperatures at these frequencies are compared with W values derived from the humidity profiles. It is observed that the sensitivity between the brightness temperatures and W values at the AMMS channel is greater than 130 K/g per sq cm and 12 K/g per sq cm for the 22 GHz frequency.

Description: The conceptual design of a spaceborne rain mapping radar is described. This system has dual frequency channels operating at 14 and 35 GHz. It is capable of measuring precepitation profiles for rainfall rates from 0.3 mm/hr and up to 60 mm/hr. The rain reflectivity measurements obtained by this system are expected to have accuracies better than 10 percent.

Description: The trajectories of 38 type III storms in the interplanetary medium have been deduced from ISEE-3 radio observations and extrapolated back to the sun to determine the Carrington coordinates of their footpoints. The analysis assumes radial motion of the solar wind, and the trajectories are projected radially back toward the surface for the last few solar radii. To identify the storm sources, the footpoints were compared to a variety of solar features: to the large-scale neutral line at the base of the current sheet, to active regions, to the small-scale neutral lines and H-alpha filaments which trace out active regions, and to coronal holes. Most of the footpoints were found to lie near active regions, in agreement with metric storm locations. There is a weak correlation with H-alpha filaments, no apparent association with the current sheet, and an anticorrelation with coronal holes. There is a small excess of storms in the leading half of magnetic sectors.

Description: More than 20 real periodicities ranging from 20 days to 2 years modulate the solar irradiance data accumulated since November 1978 by Nimbus 7. Many are quite strong during the first three years (solar maximum) and weak after that. There is a high correspondence between periods in irradiance and 28 periods predicted from the rotation and beating of global solar oscillations (r-modes and g-modes). Angular states l = 1, 2, and 3 are detected as well as some unresolved r-mode power at higher l. The prominence of beat periods implies a nonlinear system whose effective nonlinear power was measured to be about 2. This analysis constitutes a detection of r-modes in the sun, and determines from them a mean sidereal rotation rate for the convective envelope of 459 + or - 4 nHz which converts to a period of 25.2 days (27.1d, synodic).

Description: A method for determination of scaled optical thickness from reflected solar radiation measurements is described in which measurements of the reflected function are compared with asymptotic expressions for the reflection function of optically thick layers. Analytic formulas are derived which show the dependence of the reflection and transmission functions of nonabsorbing atmospheres on cloud optical thickness, ground albedo, and the asymmetry factor. An expression is derived which shows that the ground albedo produces a constant bias in the derived optical thickness, regardless of the value of the measured reflection function. Results from an analysis of high-resolution images, obtained in Oklahoma, of the reflection function of clouds shows the impact of details of the single scattering phase function on the derived optical thickness.

Description: Observations suggesting that the mean solar wind azimuthal field strength B(theta) near the ecliptic plane falls off more rapidly with heliocentric distance than would be expected in a classic Parker expansion is reexamined from a theoretical perspective using a three-dimensional MHD nonlinear numerical model for steady, corotating flow. For realistic solar wind parameters, it is found that a purely axisymmetric expansion can produce sizable magnetic flux deficits only when there are substantial meridional gradients in mean flow conditions localized about the ecliptic plane near the sun. Calculations on three-dimensional cororating flows are presented which demonstrate that latitudinal transport of magnetic flux by stream interactions may be an important consideration in generating the deficits in mean B(theta).

Description: The seasonality and persistence of the major modes of interannual variability in the low-frequency atmospheric circulation were studied using orthogonally rotated principle component analysis (RPCA) of Northern Hemisphere 1-month mean 700 mb heights. The twice-daily data for the 1950-1984 period were used. Winter results are similar to those of other recent RPCA and teleconnection studies. The strongest summer pattern is the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is also the strongest winter pattern; it systematically contracts northward in summer and expands southward in winter, being the only pattern found for every month of the year. The robustness of the RPCA results was examined through consistency with results of other studies and of adjacent month solutions within this study, as well as by replicating the results using 3-month and 10-day means of 700-mb height. It is concluded that the RPCA method provides a physically meaningful and statistically stable product with the simplicity of teleconnection patterns but with superior pattern choice and depiction.

Description: GCM experiments are used to study several possible mechanisms associated with the maintenance of the June 1982 blocking in the Southern Hemisphere. The mechanisms considered include changed orography, sea surface temperature anomalies, tropical heating, regional heating in the Pacific area, land-sea contrast, and sensible heating in the Antarctic area. It is concluded that asymmetric heating due to land-sea contrast was the most important boundary forcing associated with maintenance of the block. A 'no Australia' experiment confirms this result and suggests that local land-sea contrast kept the block stationary. High-latitude sensible heating associated with cold air outbreaks from Antarctica was also important in maintaining the block.

Description: A numerical study based on the use of a variational assimilation technique of Gal-Chen (1983, 1986) was conducted to assess the impact of incorporating temperature data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) into a regional-scale numerical model. A comparison with the results of a control forecast using only conventional data indicated that the assimilation technique successfully combines actual VAS temperature observations with the dynamically balanced model fields without destabilizing the model during the assimilation cycle. Moreover, increasing the temporal frequency of VAS temperature insertions during the assimilation cycle was shown to enhance the impact on the model forecast through successively longer forecast periods. The incorporation of a nudging technique, whereby the model temperature field is constrained toward the VAS 'updated' values during the assimilation cycle, further enhances the impact of the VAS temperature data.

Description: A nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation and some additional constraints are derived which describe the time-dependent behavior of the temperature structure of the plasma in coronal loops. The equation is analyzed using nonlinear diffusion asymptotics, in particular singular perturbation techniques, and the results are interpreted in the context of the physical problem of the thermal stability and temporal behavior of the plasma. The results are consistent with the possibility of cyclic thermal behavior of the plasma, as suggested by Kuin and Martens (1982).

Description: NASA's Airborne Doppler Lidar System has been used to obtain a detailed 'instantaneous' mapping of horizontal spatial wind fields at 600-800 m elevations on the east side of the San Gorgonio Pass in California, in the form of checkerboard-fashion horizontal wind vectors spaced at 300 m intervals along and normal to the flight path. Spatial autocorrelations for the lateral and longitudinal components are ensemble-averaged, and integral turbulent length scales are computed for the wind fields' longitudinal and lateral directions. The flow in the region studied does not appear to be isotropic.

Description: The characteristic Rossby frequency is defined for a fixed zonal wavenumber perturbation as the variational integral of the Rayleigh-Ritz method. It is a measure of the time scale of the disturbance. For a disturbance which locally has the shape of an eigenfunction but is not global in extent, the characteristic Rossby frequency is very close to the true eigenvalue, and additionally remains unchanged under linear inviscid dynamics. Results are presented for the shallow water equations, both with and without a mean zonal wind. The characteristic Rossby frequency of a wavenumber 1 perturbation having the shape of the second symmetric Rossby mode but confined to the Northern Hemisphere is close to the corresponding Rossby frequency. This finding is helpful in understanding the behavior of the observed wavenumber 1 pattern of January 1979, which propagated westward with nearly the pure Rossby frequency but was discernible only in the Northern Hemisphere (as discussed by Daley and Williamson).

Description: A well-resolved two-dimensional nonlinear numerical simulation of the radiative/thermal instability in a sheared magnetic field is described which leads to filament formation. The condensation is initiated by a linearly unstable mode and widens until it is slowed by thermal conduction parallel to B. During the nonlinear evolution, the minimum temperature falls from 10 to the 6th K to 10 to the 4th K and eventually reaches a state of local thermal equilibrium in about five e-folding times.

Description: Stratospheric solar, IR, and net radiative heating are calculated on a monthly basis using solar and IR radiative codes and satellite derived distributions of ozone, water vapor, and temperature. Divergence-free, zonally averaged, advective fields are diagnosed using the calculated diabatic heating; associated stream functions are derived. The stratospheric transport of inert tracers is studied. Analysis of the diagnosed advective fields reveal that: (1) entry into the mid- to upper stratosphere of tropospheric air is mainly from altitude regions of + or - 10 deg at the equatorial tropopause; (2) at latitudes poleward of + or - 15 deg, tracers transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere are transported toward the pole and then downward and out of the stratosphere; and (3) the presence of net cooling cells in the lower stratospheric polar regions is important. The interannual variability of the diabatic circulation is estimated using heating and advection fields derived from LIMS data.

Description: The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Description: The dynamics of frontal evolution is examined in terms of the Australian summertime cool change using a two-dimensional numerical model. The model is synthesized from observational data on surface cold fronts obtained during the Australian Cold Fronts Research Program, and the model develops a quasi-steady surface cold front during the 24 hours of integration. The characteristics of this model are compared with those of a kinematic model; it is observed that the features of the two models correspond. The two-dimensional and kinematic models are also compared with a 24-hour prediction of the cold front of February 1983 using the three-dimensional nested-grid model of the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Center, developed by Gauntlett et al. (1984). Good correlation between these models is detected.

Description: A simple convective mass flux model is used to derive expressions for the fluxes of liquid water and buoyancy in partly cloudy turbulent layers. The results differ radically from those suggested in some previous studies. Physical interpretation is given, and examples are presented. Implications for the dynamics of partly cloudy boundary layers are discussed, and the aftermath of cloud-top entrainment instability is analyzed.

Description: Atmosphere and ocean surface parameters are being derived from weather satellite data acquired by the High Resolution Infrared Sounder and the Microwave Sounding Unit. In this paper, the global distribution and accuracy of the derived parameters are described, and the satellite-derived skin surface temperature is compared with available shelter temperature. Seasonal and interannual changes are examined to study the response time of large-scale atmospheric changes to changes in surface conditions.

Description: Nimbus 7 LIMS data are used to determine monthly and seasonal zonal mean reference stratospheric profiles over selected latitude bands, and other ground and airborne microwave data are combined with the LIMS data to construct an interim reference profile from the tropopause to 80 km for the midlatitude region averaged over the winter and spring periods. The present profiles indicate the presence of a hygropause near 50 mb pressure in the tropics, a relatively constant mixing ratio distribution with a height of 4.7-5 ppmv in the midlatitude and high latitude stratosphere, and a decrease in the midlatitude mesosphere to 1 ppmv at about 80 km.

Description: Nuclear processes and particle acceleration in solar flares are reviewed. The theory of gamma-ray and neutron production is discussed and results of calculations are compared to gamma-ray, neutron, and charged-particle observations from solar flares. The implications of these comparisons on particle energy spectra, total numbers, anisotropies, electron-to-proton ratios, as well as on acceleration mechanisms and the interaction site, are presented. The information on elemental and isotopic abundances derived from gamma-ray observations is compared to abundances obtained from escaping accelerated particles and other sources.

Description: The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM of Hansen et al. (1983) was run, with 4 deg x 5 deg resolution, with doubled CO2 and two sets of sea surface temperature gradient distributions. One set was derived from the equilibrium doubled CO2 run of the 8 deg x 10 deg GISS GCM, with minimal high latitude amplification. The other set resembled closely the GFDL model results, with greater amplification. Both experiments had the same global mean surface air temperature change. The two experiments were often found to produce substantially different climate characteristics. With reduced high latitude amplification (set one), and thus, more equatorial warming, there was a greater increase in specific humidity and the greenhouse capacity of the atmosphere, resulting in a warmer atmosphere in general. Features such as the low-latitude precipitation, Hadley cell intensity, jet stream magnitude, and atmospheric energy transports all increased in comparison with the control run. In contrast, these features all decreased in the experiment with greater high latitude amplification (set two).

Description: Features enabling the prediction of the beginning and the length of a solar cycle, in addition to the turning points in the period-growth dichotomy, have been identified based on butterfly diagrams for the period from 1874 to the present. The present results indicate that cycle 21 will be a long-period cycle ending after July 1987. On the assumption that April 1985 was the first occurrence of high latitude new cycle (cycle 22) spots during the decline of cycle 21 (the old cycle), it is suggested that the last occurrence of high latitude old cycle spots was September 1983 and that the minimum for cycle 22 will be about 1986.7 + or - 1.1 yr.

Description: During sunspot cycles 20 and 21, the maximum in smoothed 10.7-cm solar radio flux occurred about 1.5 yr after the maximum smoothed sunspot number, whereas during cycles 18 and 19 no lag was observed. Thus, although 10.7-cm radio flux and Zurich sunspot number are highly correlated, they are not interchangeable, especially near solar maximum. The 10.7-cm flux more closely follows the number of sunspots visible on the solar disk, while the Zurich sunspot number more closely follows the number of sunspot groups. The number of sunspots in an active region is one measure of the complexity of the magnetic structure of the region, and the coincidence in the maxima of radio flux and number of sunspots apparently reflects higher radio emission from active regions of greater magnetic complexity. The presence of a lag between sunspot-number maximum and radio-flux maximum in some cycles but not in others argues that some aspect of the average magnetic complexity near solar maximum must vary from cycle to cycle. A speculative possibility is that the radio-flux lag discriminates between long-period and short-period cycles, being another indicator that the solar cycle switches between long-period and short-period modes.

Description: Two-dimensional maps of radio brightness temperature and polarization, computed assuming thermal emission with free-free and gyroresonance absorption, are compared with observations of active region 2502, performed at Westerbork at lambda = 6.16 cm during a period of 3 days in June 1980. The computation is done assuming a homogeneous model in the whole field of view and a force-free extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field observed at MSFC with a resolution of 2.34 arcsec. The mean results are the following: (1) a very good agreement is found above the large leading sunspot of the group, assuming a potential extrapolation of the magnetic field and a constant conductive flux in the transition region ranging from .2 x 10 to the 6th to 10 to the 7th erg/sq cm 5; (2) a strong radio source, associated with a new-born moving sunspot, cannot be ascribed to thermal emission. It is suggested that this source may be due to synchrotron radiation by mildly relativistic electrons accelerated by resistive instabilities occurring in the evolving magnetic configuration. An order-of-magnitude computation of the expected number of accelerated particles seems to confirm this hypothesis.

Description: In this paper the effects of a transiently ionizing solar flare plasma on the X-ray spectrum of iron between 1.85 and 1.92 A are considered. The atomic physics of the nonequilibrium spectrum is discussed, and reasons for differences in appearance from ionization equilibrium spectra are explained. The effect of spectral resolution on the ability to detect transient ionization in the iron X-ray spectrum is illustrated by synthetic spectra. A synthetic transiently ionizing spectrum is applied to the interpretation of spectra obtained from the SOX 1 spectrometer on the Japanese Hinotori spacecraft. Some indications of transient ionization are found, although counting statistics negate a strong conclusion. A hypothetical spectrometer with about one order of magnitude more sensitivity than the SOX 1 Hinotori or the bent crystal spectrometer flown on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) is also considered. The ranges of plasma parameters such as plasma emission measure and density that are necessary for transient ionization to be detected by such an instrument are discussed.

Description: Radiosonde (RS)and satellite-derived (Nimbus-7 LIMS) 100-mb temperatures over New Zealand at 12 GMT are compared for the 1978-79 summer. The colocated LIMS temperature information consists of synoptically mapped values (for 12 GMT), as well as the primary nighttime orbital retrievals valid at about 1030 GMT. The RS time series of temperature is dominated by temporal fluctuations associated mainly with the eastward passage of waves which have characteristic periods of 4-5 and 11-12 days and peak-to-peak amplitudes of 10-15 K. The LIMS temperatures and the corresponding temperature time series are also found to exhibit quite close agreement (in terms of temporal phase for the latter) with the RS data. However, the LIMS-mapped temperature fluctuations suffer from a noticeable attenuation in amplitude (approaching 50 percent for higher-frequency fluctuations), which will affect the accuracy of LIMS-derived estimates of dynamical quantities such as wind velocity and relative vorticity in the lower stratosphere.

Description: This study explores the relationships between satellite-viewed cloudy grid cells and the variability of the precipitation contained therein, together with the relationships between the satellite-IR clouds and rainfall and the IR-thresholded visible clouds and rainfall. In the grid cell approach, IR, visible, and radar data for five days of the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment were examined using a 32-km grid and 30-min interval; the results of this experiment indicated that useful, accurate rainfall estimates beyond rain/no rain discrimination are unlikely. In the cloud definition approach, it was found that the cloud IR area was highly correlated with the rain area and with the volume rain rate across the entire spectrum of cloud sizes. It was poorly correlated with mean cloud rain rate.

Description: The Nimbus-7 satellite has been in a 955-km, sun-synchronous orbit since October 1978. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment has taken approximately 8 years of high-quality data during this time, of which seven complete years have been archived at the National Space Science Data Center. A final reprocessing of the wide-field-of-view channel dataset is underway. Error analyses indicate a long-term stability of 1 percent better over the length of the data record. As part of the validation of the ERB measurements, the archived 7-year Nimbus-7 ERB dataset is examined for the presence and accuracy of interannual variations including the Southern Oscillation signal. Zonal averages of broadband outgoing longwave radiation indicate a terrestrial response of more than 2 years to the oceanic and atmospheric manifestations of the 1982-83 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, especially in the tropics. This signal is present in monthly and seasonal averages and is shown here to derive primarily from atmospheric responses to adjustments in the Pacific Ocean. The calibration stability of this dataset thus provides a powerful new tool to examine the physics of the ENSO phenomena.

Description: A series of numerical simulations of the February 1979 Presidents Day cyclone is presented. The development of the low-level jet (LLJ) associated with the cyclone is described, and the mesoscale numerical model, initial analyses, and experimental design used in the study are discussed. Four numerical simulations are discussed and compared, including an adiabatic simulation that isolates the development of upper-level divergence along the axis of a subtropical jet streak and three other simulations that reveal the contributions of sensible and latent heat release in modifying lower-tropospheric wind fields and reducing the sea-level pressure. The formation of the LLJ is described through an evaluation of trajectories derived from the various model simulations. The effect of the LLJ on secondary cyclogenesis along the East Coast is described.

Description: Localized brightenings are found throughout the magnetic network in quiet sun image sequences obtained in the C IV 1548 A line by the SMM satellite's UV spectrometer and polarimeter. Some bright sites are short-lived, while others persist. Plots of the intensity fluctuations show that the enhancements at both short- and long-lived sites are the result of localized impulsive heating events that occur intermittently at the short-lived sites and in more rapid succession at the long-lived ones. The number of these events and their visibility in the wings of the C IV line are consistent with their identification as the explosive events seen in UV spectra.

Description: An analysis of the absorption line shift data of the John M. Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford University has yielded signatures of the existence of global convection on the sun. These include persistent periodic time variations in the east-west component of the velocity fields defined by fitting a slope to the line shift data in a certain longitude window at a specified latitude and longitude by the least squares method. The amplitude of the velocity fields estimated from these variations is of the order of 100 m/s. The results of the analysis also suggest that several modes of global convection coexist in the solar convection zone. Details of the analysis are given.

Description: To study the statistical behavior of clouds for different climate regimes, the spatial and temporal stability of VIS-IR bidimensional histograms is tested. Also, the effect of data sampling and averaging on the histogram shapes is considered; in particular the sampling strategy used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project is tested.

Description: A study of the onset phase of ten great hard X-ray bursts is presented. It is shown from hard X-ray and radio observations in different wavelength ranges that the energization of the electrons proceeds on a global time-scale for some tens of seconds. In nine of the bursts, two phases of emission can be distinguished during the onset phase: the preflash phase (during which emission up to an energy limit ranging from some tens of keV to 200 keV is observed) followed ten to some tens of seconds later by the flash phase (where the count rate in all detector channels rises simultaneously to within some seconds). For two of the events, strong gamma-ray line emission is observed and is shown to start close to the onset of the flash phase.

Description: A special method has been developed for the study of cells that are embedded in convective rain systems. This method consists of a package of computer programs that use pattern recognition techniques on three-dimensional digital radar data to identify the rain cells, track them with time, and calculate their properties. The product of the computations is a comprehensive database of physically meaningful properties of rain cells, which can be used to infer the internal structure and the dynamics of convective rain systems. The cell-tracking method has been applied to the summer convective clouds of south Florida for the following purposes: (1) derivation of the relationship between the echo top height and the precipitation characteristics (e.g., area, water yield, rain intensity and duration of the rain cells); (2) study of the microphysical behaviorof cumulus clouds in relation to their cell properties; (3) evaluation of the effect of seeding on cumulus clouds on the cell scale; and (4) examination of cloud-to-ground lightning discharges in relation to convective cell intensity. The cell-tracking method is also currently being used in rain enhancement projects in Texas, Israel, and South Africa. The cell-tracking method, its products and their use in meteorological research are described in this paper.

Description: A review is presented of measurements of the spectrum of radiation from lightning in the frequency range from 1 kHz to 1 GHz, made either (1) by monitoring the power received at individual frequencies using a narrow-bandwidth recording device or (2) by recording the transient (time-dependent) radiation with a wide-bandwidth device and then Fourier transforming the waveform to obtain a spectrum. Measurements of type (1) were made extensively in the 1950s and 1960s, and several composite spectra have been deduced by normalizing the data of different investigators to common units of bandwidth and distance. The composite spectra tend to peak near 5 kHz and then decrease roughly as 1/(frequency) up to nearly 100 MHz, where scatter in the data makes the behavior uncertain. The spectrum obtained with measurements of type (2) is similar.

Description: VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) radiance data obtained over the continental United States on July 20, 1981 are used to evaluate a variety of VAS retrieval procedures and parameters in the qualitative analysis and forecasting of severe weather events. The particular case analyzed contains two significantly different mesoscale convective events in the central plains. Retrievals of temperature, dewpoint temperature, equivalent potential temperature, total column precipitable water, and lifted index are shown to be physically consistent in space and time and to compare well with available radiosonde data. The analysis of the VAS retrievals identified significant spatial gradients and temporal changes in the thermal and moisture fields, including times and locations between radiosonde observations.

Description: Wind measurements at 3.8 m from a surface-following toroid and at 4.0 m from a vertically stable spar were compared to estimate the influence of mooring motion. Buoys were separated by 9 km. Data were obtained at 15-min intervals for 41 days in the equatorial Pacific, where the maximum 15-min averaged wind speed was 9.0 m/s and wind speeds averaged 4.5 m/s. Toroid wind speeds were 3.5 percent greater than the spar data, and the correlation coefficient between 15-min toroid and spar data was 0.92. The frequency of the 50-percent noise level was 0.125 cph, and the correlation coefficient between 8-hour averaged toroid and spar data was 0.98. Toroid 8-hour averaged wind speeds referenced to 10-m height were 2 percent larger thancorresponding spar data.

Description: An electric circuit analogy is used to model the build-up and storage of magnetic energy in the coronal loops known to exist in the atmosphere of the sun. The present parameterization of magnetic energy storage in an electric circuit analog uses a bulk current I flowing in the circuit and a self-inductance L. Because the self-inductance is determined by the geometry of the magnetic configuration any change in its dimensions will change L. If L is increased, the amount of magnetic energy stored and the rate at which magnetic energy is stored are both increased. One way of increasing L is to shear the magnetic field lines and increase their effective geometrical length. Using the force-free field approximation for a magnetic arcade whose field lines are sheared by photospheric motions, it is demonstrated that the increase of magnetic energy is initially due to the increase of the current intensity I and later mainly due to the increase of the self-inductance.

Description: Of all the errors discussed in climatology literature, aliasing errors caused by undersampling of unsmoothed or improperly smoothed temperature data seem to be completely overlooked. This is a serious oversight in view of long-term trends of 1 K or less. Adequate sampling of properly smoothed data is demonstrated with a Hamming digital filter. It is also demonstrated that hourly temperatures, daily averages, and annual averages free of aliasing errors can be obtained by use of a microprocessor added to standard weather sensors and recorders.

Description: Lidar observations of boundary-layer development during a cold air outbreak over the Atlantic Ocean were examined. Very rapid rise rates were measured in the first 20 km off the coast. A large region of partial cloudiness was found to exist between the totally clear region near shore and the overcast region far from the coast. As the layer became overcast, rise rate of the boundary layer tripled, suggesting a direct relation between cloudiness and entrainment. Boundary-layer evolution was reasonably well simulated by a simple slab model. The model was not capable of predicting the area of partial cloudiness, nor the region of rapid entrainment near the coast.

Description: A technique is presented in which full disk Doppler velocity measurements are analyzed using spherical harmonic functions to determine the characteristics of the spectrum of spherical harmonic modes and the nature of steady photospheric flows. Synthetic data are constructed in order to test the technique. In spite of the mode mixing due to the lack of information about the motions on the backside of the sun, solar rotation and differential rotation can be accurately measured and monitored for secular changes, and meridional circulations with small amplitudes can be measured. Furthermore, limb shift measurements can be accurately obtained, and supergranules can be fully resolved and separated from giant cells by their spatial characteristics.

Description: An improved method for calculating the resonance absorption heating rate is discussed and the results are compared with observations in the solar corona. To accomplish this, the wave equation for a dissipative, compressible plasma is derived from the linearized magnetohydrodynamic equations for a plasma with transverse Alfven speed gradients. For parameters representative of the solar corona, it is found that a two-scale description of the wave motion is appropriate. The large-scale motion, which can be approximated as nearly ideal, has a scale which is on the order of the width of the loop. The small-scale wave, however, has a transverse scale much smaller than the width of the loop, with a width of about 0.3-250 km, and is highly dissipative. These two wave motions are coupled in a narrow resonance region in the loop where the global wave frequency equals the local Alfven wave frequency. Formally, this coupling comes about from using the method of matched asymptotic expansions to match the inner and outer (small and large scale) solutions. The resultant heating rate can be calculated from either of these solutions. A formula derived using the outer (ideal) solution is presented, and shown to be consistent with observations of heating and line broadening in the solar corona.

Description: The global diabatic circulation is computed for the months of January, April, July and October over the altitude region 100 to 0.1 mb using an accurate troposphere-stratosphere radiative transfer model, SBUV and SME ozone data, and NMC temperatures. There is high correlation between the level of wave activity and the local departure of the atmosphere from radiative equilibrium. An excess in the globally averaged net stratospheric heating from 40 to 50 km is computed for all months, and a deficit from 50 to 60 km is computed during solstice. A 20 percent uniform reduction in ozone from 40 to 50 km, or a temperature perturbation with an increase of 5 K at 1 mb, will bring the atmosphere into global radiative equilibrium without significant impact on the diabatic circulation. In the transitional months of April and October, the net heating in the fall hemispheres are very similar, while substantial differences exist between the spring hemispheres.

Description: Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Description: The effects of ice age boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and regional climate patterns are investigated using four GCM simulations. Particular consideration is given to sea surface temperature-sea ice distribution, the appearance of land ice, and the increased elevation of land ice. It is observed that the ice-age sea surface temperature stabilizes the atmosphere over the oceans, increases the frequency of storm tracking through central North America, and amplifies transient eddy energy without increasing baroclinic generation. It is detected that low-elevation ice generates low pressure over eastern North America and southern Europe in winter, while increasing cloud cover and cooling the land in summer. Elevation of the ice sheets cools the land in winter, further intensifies storms off northeastern North America, induces subsidence warming downstream of the European ice sheets in summer, and increases the transient and stationary eddy energy through increased baroclinicity.

Description: The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer on board Nimbus 7 is used to infer the UV surface and cloud reflectance at 370 nm. Cloudless surface reflectivity was analyzed on a global basis for all surface types for several months. The UV surface reflectivity varies from 2 percent for some forest and grassland regions to 14 percent for some sandy desert areas. A notable exception is the large salt flats of Bolivia, which have a reflectivity of about 60 percent. Cloud reflectivity was also analyzed for clouds located at three levels in the atmosphere, as determined by the 11.5 micron channel of the Temperature Humidity Infrared Radiometer. Average cloud reflectivity at 370 nm ranges from 52 percent for low clouds (tops less than 2 km) to 76 percent for high clouds (tops greater than 7 km at the equator, decreasing to greater than 4 km at poles).

Description: Frequency measurements for the Delta V = 2 transitions of CO in the integrated light spectrum of the sun are presented. The nature and magnitude of systematic errors which typically arise in absolute velocity measurements of integrated sunlight are explored in some detail, and measurements believed accurate at the level of about 5 m/s or less are presented. It is found that the integrated light velocity varies by about 3 m/s or less over a one-day period. Over the long term, the data indicate an increasing blue-shift in these weak infrared lines amounting to 30 m/s from 1983 to 1985. The sense of the drift is consistent with a lessening in the magnetic inhibition of granular convection at solar minimum. Such an effect has implications for the spectroscopic detectability of planetary-mass companions to solar-type stars.

Description: A deconvolution method for extracting the top of the atmosphere (TOA) mean, daily albedo field from a set of wide-FOV (WFOV) shortwave radiometer measurements is proposed. The method is based on constructing a synthetic measurement for each satellite observation. The albedo field is represented as a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions, and these linear equations are presented. Simulation studies were conducted to determine the sensitivity of the method. It is observed that a maximum of about 289 pieces of data can be extracted from a set of Nimbus 7 WFOV satellite measurements. The albedos derived using the deconvolution method are compared with albedos derived using the WFOV archival method; the developed albedo field achieved a 20 percent reduction in the global rms regional reflected flux density errors. The deconvolution method is applied to estimate the mean, daily average TOA albedo field for January 1983. A strong and extensive albedo maximum (0.42), which corresponds to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation event of 1982-1983, is detected over the south central Pacific Ocean.

Description: The methods used to determine effective cloud fraction (cloud fraction times cloud emissivity at 11-14 microns) and cloud top pressure from analysis of HIRS2/MSU sounding data are described. Identical procedures are used day and night so as to allow for meaningful day-night difference fields. Results are shown for June 1979. The monthly mean effective cloud fraction is 43.4 percent, resulting from a 45.2 percent value at 0300 LT and 41.6 percent at 1500 LT. The retrieved single-day cloud field for June 11 shows good agreement with high spatial resolution visible and infrared imagery.

Description: The changes that occur in measured magnetic fields when they are transformed into a heliographic coordinate system are investigated. To carry out this investigation, measurements of the vector magnetic field of an active region that was observed at 1/3 the solar radius from disk center are taken, and the observed field is transformed into heliographic coordinates. Differences in the calculated potential field that occur when the heliographic normal component of the field is used as the boundary condition rather than the observed line-of-sight component are also examined. The results of this analysis show: (1) that the observed fields of sunspots more closely resemble the generally accepted picture of the distribution of umbral fields if they are displayed in heliographic coordinates; (2) that the differences in the potential calculations are less than 200 G in field strength and 20 deg in field azimuth outside sunspots; and (3) that differences in the two potential calculations in the sunspot areas are no more than 400 G in field strength but range from 60 to 80 deg in field azimuth in localized umbral areas.

Description: The moist convection parameterization used in the GISS 3-D GCM is adapted for use in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. Experiments with different versions of the parameterization show that its impact on the general circulation in the 2-D model does not parallel its impact in the 3-D model unless the effect of zonal variations is parameterized in the moist convection calculations. A parameterization of the variations in moist static energy is introduced in which the temperature variations are calculated from baroclinic stability theory, and the relative humidity is assumed to be constant. Inclusion of the zonal variations of moist static energy in the 2-D moist convection parameterization allows just a fraction of a latitude circle to be unstable and enhances the amount of deep convection. This leads to a 2-D simulation of the general circulation very similar to that in the 3-D model. The experiments show that the general circulation is sensitive to the parameterized amount of deep convection in the subsident branch of the Hadley cell. The more there is, the weaker are the Hadley cell circulations and the westerly jets. The experiments also confirm the effects of momentum mixing associated with moist convection found by earlier investigators and, in addition, show that the momentum mixing weakens the Ferrel cell. An experiment in which the moist convection was removed while the hydrological cycle was retained and the eddy forcing was held fixed shows that moist convection by itself stabilizes the tropics, reduces the Hadley circulation, and reduces the maximum speeds in the westerly jets.

Description: The nonlinear evolution of a radiation-driven thermally unstable planar fluid is simulated numerically using a semiimplicit finite-difference algorithm. When the equilibrium state of the fluid is perturbed by random initial excitation of the velocity field, dense, cool, two-dimensional structures are found to form in a rarer, warmer surrounding medium. The nonlinear phase of evolution is characterized by the turbulent contraction of the condensed region, accompanied by a significant increase in the amount of energy radiated. It is found that, if the random velocity perturbation has a sufficiently large amplitude, the fluid will not form condensed structures. Finally, the relationship of these results to observations of the solar chromosphere, transition region, and corona is discussed.

Description: A three-dimensional (3D), multivariate, statistical objective analysis scheme (referred to as optimum interpolation or OI) has been developed for use in numerical weather prediction studies with the FGGE data. Some novel aspects of the present scheme include: (1) a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans, which employs an Ekman balance instead of the usual geostrophic relationship, to model the pressure-wind error cross correlations, and (2) the capability to use an error correlation function which is geographically dependent. A series of 4-day data assimilation experiments are conducted to examine the importance of some of the key features of the OI in terms of their effects on forecast skill, as well as to compare the forecast skill using the OI with that utilizing a successive correction method (SCM) of analysis developed earlier. For the three cases examined, the forecast skill is found to be rather insensitive to varying the error correlation function geographically. However, significant differences are noted between forecasts from a two-dimensional (2D) version of the OI and those from the 3D OI, with the 3D OI forecasts exhibiting better forecast skill. The 3D OI forecasts are also more accurate than those from the SCM initial conditions. The 3D OI with the multivariate oceanic surface analysis was found to produce forecasts which were slightly more accurate, on the average, than a univariate version.

Description: A set of visible and IR data obtained with GOES from July 17-31, 1983 is analyzed using a modified version of the hybrid bispectral threshold method developed by Minnis and Harrison (1984). This methodology can be divided into a set of procedures or optional techniques to determine the proper contaminate clear-sky temperature or IR threshold. The various optional techniques are described; the options are: standard, low-temperature limit, high-reflectance limit, low-reflectance limit, coldest pixel and thermal adjustment limit, IR-only low-cloud temperature limit, IR clear-sky limit, and IR overcast limit. Variations in the cloud parameters and the characteristics and diurnal cycles of trade cumulus and stratocumulus clouds over the eastern equatorial Pacific are examined. It is noted that the new method produces substantial changes in about one third of the cloud amount retrieval; and low cloud retrievals are affected most by the new constraints.

Description: It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

Description: Sluggish global oscillations, having a periodicity of months and trapped in the sun's convection zone, modulate the amount of energy reaching earth and seem to impose some large-scale order on the distribution of solar surface features. These recently recognized oscillations (r-modes) increase the predictability of solar changes and may improve understanding of rotation and variability in other stars. Most of the 13 periodicities ranging from 13 to 85 days that are caused by r-modes can be detected in Nimbus 7 observations of solar irradiance during 3 years at solar maximum. These modes may also bear on the classical question of persistent longitudes of high solar activity.

Description: A unique coordinated data set consisting of vector magnetograms, H-alpha photographs, and high-resolution ultraviolet images of a solar active region is used, together with mathematical models, to calculate potential and force-free magnetic field lines and to examine the nonpotential nature of the active region structure. It is found that the overall bipolar magnetic field of the active region had a net twist corresponding to net current of order 3 x 10 to the 12th A and average density of order 4 x 10 to the -4th A/sq m flowing antiparallel to the field. There were three regions of enhanced nonpotentiality in the interior of the active region; in one the field had a marked nonpotential twist or shear with height above the photosphere. The measured total nonpotential magnetic energy stored in the entire active region was of order 10 to the 32nd ergs, about 3 sigma above the noise level.

Description: Time profiles and histograms of plasma data from Pioneers 10 and 11 are examined for the period between 1975 and 1983. During this time, Pioneer 10 traveled between a heliocentric distance of 8.7 and 30.4 AU. The velocity structure of the solar wind at these heliocentric distances is found to have one of two distinct forms: approximately 70 percent of the time the solar wind has a nearly flat velocity profile. Occasionally, this flat velocity profile is accompanied by quasi-periodic variations in density and in thermal speed consistent with the concept that the 'corotating interaction regions' which are produced by the interaction of high- and low-speed streams at intermediate heliocentric distances are replaced by 'pressure regions' in the outer heliosphere. The remaining 30 percent of the time the solar wind is marked by large (50-200 km/s) long-term (30-120 days) shifts in the average solar wind velocity.

Description: Quantitative observational guidelines have been developed for the study and forecasting of mesoscale events and cyclone events; many of these guidelines have resulted from major meteorological field programs. Increasingly sophisticated satellite-borne instruments in low and geosynchronous orbits have provided valuable measurements of these events. The major deficiencies in the measurements taken from geosynchronous orbit today, relative to guidelines, are (1) the lack of temperature profiles and moisture profiles below clouds, and the poor vertical resolution of these profiles; (2) the insufficient combination of spatial resolution and temporal resolution and spectral intervals available in generating images (imaging); and (3) the lack of accurate precipitation mapping. Considerably more-powerful instrumentation is possible on geosynchronous satellites that can substantially reduce these deficiencies. The capability of advanced geosynchronous observations and those expected with future instrumentation in low-orbit are evaluated with respect to tropical cyclone and severe local-storm observational guidelines. A high percentage of the guidelines are expected to be fulfilled with geosynchronous measurements: (1) using microwave instruments for imaging and for obtaining temperature profiles and moisture profiles, (2) very high spectral-resolution infrared profiling, (3) very high spatial-resolution and very high temporal-resolution imaging, and (4) ozone mapping.

Description: The efect on turbulence of a variable mean wind along the flight path of an aircraft is modeled and analyzed. It is found that the effect of a variable head or tail wind alters the magnitude of the length-scale of sensed microburst turbulence, rendering turbulence more random than usually encountered in the upper atmosphere. This, coupled with accompanying aerodynamic lift loss experienced during the headwind-to-tailwind swing, is what collectively creates the hazardous environment for a microburst-encountering aircraft attempting to land during a thunderstorm.

Description: A deconvolution technique is employed that permits recovery of daily averaged earth radiation budget (ERB) parameters at the top of the atmosphere from a set of the Nimbus 7 ERB wide field of view (WFOV) measurements. Improvements in both the spatial resolution of the resultant fields and in the fidelity of the time averages is obtained. The algorithm is evaluated on a set of months during the period 1980-1983. The albedo, outgoing long-wave radiation, and net radiation parameters are analyzed. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-stationary patterns that appear in the spatially deconvolved fields describe the radiation budget components for 'normal' as well as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode years. They delineate the seasonal development of large-scale features inherent in the earth's radiation budget as well as the natural variability of interannual differences. These features are underscored by the powerful emergence of the 1982-1983 ENSO event in the fields displayed. The conclusion is that with this type of resolution enhancement, WFOV radiometers provide a useful tool for the observation of the contemporary climate and its variability.

Description: Errors in cloud cover derived by using a fixed threshold applied to imagery data depend not only on the fractional cover but also on cloud size. As a result, a fixed threshold applied to two scenes having the same cloud cover will produce different estimates of the cover when the clouds in the two scenes have different sizes. To allow for this influence due to cloud size, a dynamic threshold method is presented. In this method an infrared threshold is adjusted to achieve the highest correlation between the threshold-derived cloud cover and the mean emitted radiance for mesoscale-sized subregions within the scene. For single-layered cloud systems this threshold achieves a cancellation of errors in the cloud cover for the subregions so that the resulting cloud cover for the region and the associated estimates of cloud properties are in fair agreement with estimates obtained using the spatial coherence method. The agreement illustrates the validity of the layered cloud model used in different ways by the two methods. The performance of the dynamic threshold method is contrasted with that of a fixed threshold applied to the same data in order to illustrate the merits of applying a scene-dependent threshold.

Description: A total eclipse of the sun will be widely visible from the East Indies on March 18, 1988. Detailed predictions for this event are presented which include tables of geographic coordinates for the northern limit, center line and southern limit of the path of totality, local circumstances for 40 cities within the total and partial eclipse paths, the lunar-limb profile, and maps depicting the path of totality. The author discusses the general characteristics of the eclipse, local circumstances from various points along the central path and the Saros-series history.

Description: The albedo of plant canopies is treated as a problem in radiative transfer. Albedos calcualted from an iterative multistream numerical model are compared with those calculated with an analytic two-stream solution. With the assumption of a randomly homogeneous distribution of leaf positions and orientations and isotropic scattering by individual leaves, the single-scattering albedo of the canopy can be found analytically. This single-scattering solution is incorporated into the two-stream solution and used to benchmark the multistream numerical model in the single-scattering limit. Relative errors so established in the multistream model are O(0.3 percent) or less. The two-stream model is also found to be remarkably accurate, with the error in multiply scattered radiation O(5 percent) or less, corresponding to absolute errors in visible albedo of less than 0.001 and near-infrared albedo of less than or equal to 0.01. Thus the two-stream model should be adequate for many purposes, such as climate modeling, provided the assumptions of homogeneous canopy and isotropic scattering are not too unrealistic.

Description: The May 16, 1981 flare observed at Debrecen is studied by extending to a fully three-dimensional model the two-dimensional Van Tend and Kuperus (1978) scenario for preflare energy build-up. It is shown that there are 10 to the 33rd ergs of free energy available to explain the subsequent large two-ribbon flare. As a result of the three-dimensional character of the present model, this estimate is an order of magnitude larger than that made by Van Tend. It is confirmed that the global form of the preflare circuit is highly important in determining the amount of energy stored in the preflare configuration. The present model gives correct predictions for the independently observed photospheric flow velocity and current strength in filaments.

Description: Power spectra of measurements of the magnetic field strength in the heliosphere obtained by Voyager 1 between 1 AU and 9 AU have the form of a power law f exp -a from periods of several hours to at least 6 days. The exponent was a = 2.0 + or - 0.05 for all of the spectra considered, which is the exponent for a series of steps and for Burgers' (1971) turbulence. Spectra of large-scale speed fluctuations also have the form f exp - b from a period of a few hours to periods greater than 13 days in the region from 1 AU to 8.9 AU. The exponent b is generally somewhat larger than b = 2, implying some 'persistence' of the speed fluctuations. The low-frequency cutoff (outer cutoff) of the power law increases from a period of 6.5 days at 1 AU to 26 days at (6.1-8.9) AU, which can be attributed to: (1) the coalescence of interaction regions and (2) a transfer of energy from the spectrum of large-scale speed fluctuations. The outer cutoff of the spectrum of speed fluctuations increases from a period of 13 days at 1 AU to 26 days between a few AU and 8.9 AU. Both the magnetic field strength fluctuations and the speed fluctuations have fractal behavior, suggesting that they are self affine rather than dominated by a few large discontinuities.

Description: From February 26 to March 1, 1979, 32 solar flare investigators attended a workshop at Cambridge, MA to define objectives and devise a scientific program for the study of energy release in flares (SERF) during the coming solar maximum. Herein, some major results of the ensuing five-year effort to observe and understand the flare energy release process and its effects (energetic particle production, coronal and chromospheric heating, electromagnetic radiations, and mass motions and ejections) are reviewed. The central issue - what processes store and release the energy liberated in flares - remains unresolved except in the most general terms (e.g., it is generally agreed that the energy is stored in sheared or stressed magnetic fields and released by field annihilation during some MHD instability). Resolving that issue is still one of the most important goals in solar physics, but the advances during the SERF program have brought it closer.

Description: Precipitable water fields have been retrieved from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using a radiation transfer model for the differential water vapor absorption between the 11- and 12-micron 'split window' channels. Previous moisture retrievals using only the split window channels provided very good space-time continuity but poor absolute accuracy. This note describes how retrieval errors can be significantly reduced from plus or minus 0.9 to plus or minus 0.6 gm/sq cm by empirically optimizing the effective air temperature and absorption coefficients used in the two-channel model. The differential absorption between the VAS 11- and 12-micron channels, empirically estimated from 135 colocated VAS-RAOB observations, is found to be approximately 50 percent smaller than the theoretical estimates. Similar discrepancies have been noted previously between theoretical and empirical absorption coefficients applied to the retrieval of sea surface temperatures using radiances observed by VAS and polar-orbiting satellites. These discrepancies indicate that radiation transfer models for the 11-micron window appear to be less accurate than the satellite observations.

Description: A comparison is made between the observed distribution of sunspot cycle periods and distributions based on uniform, normal, and bimodal distributions. The bimodal distribution, composed of short-period and long-period cycles, is found to best describe the observed distribution. Compared to the normal distribution for the most reliably determined cycles (cycles 8-20), the bimodal distribution has a residual (sum of squares of differences) that is about 86 percent smaller. Means for short-period and long-period cycles are estimated to be 122 + or - 4 months and 140 + or - 5 months, respectively.

Description: The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Description: Time series observations of the profile of the Mg II k line 2795.52 A have been obtained in five sunspots with the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission. The three sunspots with umbrae larger than the 3 x 3 arcsec pixel size show significant oscillations in integrated line intensity and line centroid, with frequencies in the range 5.29-7.55 mHz (periods of 132-190 s). The frequencies of significant peaks in average umbral power spectra agree well with the frequencies of the three lowest-frequency transmission peaks predicted by a model of resonant transmission of acoustic waves. If radiative delays are unimportant, and the line centroid can be interpreted straightforwardly as a Doppler shift, the measured velocity-intensity phase differences indicate the superposition of upward-propagating and downward-propagating waves in the umbral chromosphere; this is further evidence for the resonant transmission model. A single, quiet sun time series of k core profiles yields power spectra and a phase difference consistent with the existence of a chromospheric p-mode.

Description: A natural extension of the type of gas-mineral-melt condensation experiments is to study the gas-mineral-melt reaction process by controlling the reaction times of appropriate gas compositions with silicate materials. In a condensing and vaporizing gas-solid system, important processes that could influence the composition of and speciation in the gas phase are the kinetics of vaporization of components from silicate crystals and melts. The high vacuum attainable in the space station would provide an environment for studying these processes at gas pressures much lower than those obtainable in experimental devices operated at terrestrial conditions in which the gas phase and mineral or melt would be allowed to come to exchange equilibrium. Further experiments would be performed at variable gas flow rates to simulate disequilibrium vapor fractionation. In this type of experiment it is desirable to analyze directly the species in the gas phase in equilibrium with the condensed silicate material. This analytical method would provide a direct determination of the species present in the gas phase. Currently, the notion of gas speciation is based on calculations from thermodynamic data. The proposed experiments require similar furnace designs and use similar experimental starting compositions, pressures, and temperatures as those described by Mysen.

Description: Data from three independent observing platforms are synthesized to study the role of jet streaks in severe weather. The three data types are: conventional radiosondes; 6.7 micron water vapor imagery from the GOES satellite; and total ozone imagery from Nimbus 7. Diagnoses are then made of potential vorticity, mid-tropospheric moisture, and total ozone at and below the level of jet streaks. Potential vorticity and total ozone distributions are both tracers of stratospheric air. Theoretically, both should respond to the transverse, vertical circulations expected in the vicinity of jet streaks. Both should increase due to the sinking above the left front quadrant of the streaks. Moisture, on the other hand, increases in the ascent under the left front quadrant. This study shows striking agreement between the three parameters independently observed from three different observing platforms. Moreover, the three severe weather case studies suggest a unique distribution of ozone, potential vorticity, and mid-tropospheric moisture relative to a jet streak. This, in turn, led to the creation of a new ozone/jet streak model which shows that the total ozone distribution provides a signature in the vicinity of jet streaks and permits identification of areas most likely to experience severe weather at a later time. The value of such observations to operational forecasting is discussed.

Description: Using high resolution time sequence photographs of solar granulation from the SOUP experiment on Spacelab 2, large scale horizontal flows were observed in the solar surface. The measurement method is based upon a local spatial cross correlation analysis. The horizontal motions have amplitudes in the range 300 to 1000 m/s. Radial outflow of granulation from a sunspot penumbra into surrounding photosphere is a striking new discovery. Both the supergranulation pattern and cellular structures having the scale of mesogranulation are seen. The vertical flows that are inferred by continuity of mass from these observed horizontal flows have larger upflow amplitudes in cell centers than downflow amplitudes at cell boundaries.

Description: Coronagraph observations of two post flare loop systems, recorded photographically in the emissions of Fe 14 (5303 A) and Fe 10 (6374 A), show occasional enhancements at the intersections of some loops. The brightness of such enhancements in the green line gradually increases to a maximum value several times greater than that of the legs of the loops and then declines with a typical lifetime approx. 30 to 60 min. In red line emission the loop systems are usually very faint, but show the same overall type of enhancement, with a lag in maximum brightness relative to that of the green line approx. 10 min. The electron density, derived from the cooling time, is approx. 10 to the 12th power/cu cm.

Description: The solar transition region is in a dynamic state characterized by impulsively upflowing plasma and continually downflowing plasma. Using numerical simulations, the conjecture that the areas of downflowing plasma are simply the base regions of coronal loops in which the heating rate is gradually decreasing and the areas of upflowing plasma are the base regions of coronal loops in which the heating rate is gradually increasing is examined. The calculations suggest that gradually reducing or increasing the heating in a magnetic flux tube will not result in plasma motions that are similar to those that are observed at high spatial resolution in the UV.

Description: The steady state pressure structure of a coronal loop is discussed in terms of the MHD global invariants of an incompressible plasma. The steady state is represented by the superposition of two Chandrasekhar-Kendall functions corresponding to (n=m=0) and (n=m=1) modes. The relative contribution of the two modes (epsilon) is found to depend on the surface pressure of the coronal loop which is also the pressure of the external medium. The mixed mode state does not exist for high values of the external pressure because epsilon becomes complex.

Description: An important property of all loops is their thermal stability. If low lying hot loops were thermally unstable, for example, a great majority of the low loops on the Sun might be expected to be cool. How small perturbations evolve in low lying, linearly unstable hot loops was determined and how high lying, linearly stable hot loops respond to large amplitude disturbances such as might be expected on the Sun were examined. Only general descriptions and results are given.

Description: Until a decade ago most solar physicists thought of a sunspot as the upper end of a giant flux tube floating vertically. The existence of umbral dots and penumbral grains has been known for several decades. On the basis of available observations, they seem to be regions of photospheric intensity with upflowing gas motion and magnetic fields much weaker than in the surrounding sunspot surface. It has also been suggested that the differences in the appearances of umbral dots and granular cells are caused by the highly nonlinear nature of the convection problem in the presense of strong magnetic fields. The main ideas are presented here without any equations. It can be shown that a pocket of field free gas surrounded by a vertical magnetic field in the presence of gravity takes up the shape of a tapering column ending at a vertex at the top. Some convection is expected to take place in the trapped field free gas, whereas the magnetic field around it makes those regions stable against convection. Eventually the apex of the tapering column reaches the photospheric surface where the bulging of the magnetic field makes the field no longer able to close on the field free gas and trap it underneath.