ALBERT

Description: Methods to obtain high resolution passive microwave weather observations, and understanding of their probable impact on numerical weather prediction accuracy were investigated. The development of synthetic aperture concepts for geosynchronous passive microwave sounders were studied. The effects of clouds, precipitation, surface phenomena, and atmospheric thermal fine structure on a scale of several kilometers were examined. High resolution passive microwave sounders (e.g., AMSU) with an increased number of channels will produce initialization data for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with both increased spatial resolution and coverage. The development of statistical models for error growth in high resolution primitive equation NWP models which permit the consequences of various observing system alternatives, including sensors and assimilation times and procedures is discussed. A high resolution three dimensional primitive equation NWP model to determine parameters in an error growth model similar to that formulated by Lorenz, but with more degrees of freedom is utilized.

Description: A spectral general circulation model was developed to run on the Cyber 205 computer system installed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This model should enhance the utility of satellite-based observation systems for accurate long-range weather prediction.

Description: The role of orography on the large-scale and regional atmospheric circulation, with special emphasis on lee cyclogenesis was studied. Effects observed in the actual atmosphere as well as numerical weather prediction and general circulation models are included.

Description: As part of the process to determine whether it is possible to retrieve boundary layer structure with the current sounding techniques, temperature retievals were performed for radiosonde profiles that showed temperature inversions. It was found that when temperature inversions exceed 8 to 10 C a retrieval will indeed show a temperature increase with height over a limited vertical distance. For weaker inversions retrieved temperatures are generally smoothly decreasing with height. It is, however, impossible to determine the actual mixed layer height from the retrievals. Whether the water vapor channels could be used in observing mixed layer structure was investigated. Temperature inversions are accompanied by significant drops in relative humidity. While this effect is very pronounced in parts of the trade wind regimes with relative humidity drops of up to 60%, it is widespread in other areas of the ocean as well. A simulation experiment was performed in which brightness temperatures were computed for smooth temperature and humidity profiles and compared with those computed from inversion profiles.

Description: The relationship of the daily variability of large-scale pressure, cloudiness and upper level wind patterns over the Brazil-Atlantic sector during March/April 1979 to rainfall anomalies in northern Nordeste was investigated. The experiment divides the rainy season (March/April) of 1979 into wet and dry days, then composites bright cloudiness, sea level pressure, and upper level wind fields with respect to persistent rainfall episodes. Wet and dry anomalies are analyzed along with seasonal mean conditions.

Description: The objectives, accomplishments, and future plans of a project to identify the full physical mechanism for the Pacific-North American variability are reported. Experiments with barotropic models incorporating topographic forcing are specifically discussed.

Description: The development of a fully implicit finite-difference model, whose time step is chosen solely to resolve accurately the physical flow of interest is discussed. The method is based on an operator factorization which reduces the dimensionality of the implicit approach: at each time step only (spatially) one-dimensional block-tridiagonal linear systems must be solved. The scheme uses two time levels and is second-order accurate in time. Compact implicit spatial differences are used, yielding fourth-order accuracy both vertically and horizontally. In addition, the development of a fully interactive computer code is discussed. With this code the user will have a choice of models, with various levels of accuracy and sophistication, which are imbedded, as subsets of the fully implicit 3D code.

Description: The response of the ocean to climate changes is one of the most uncertain questions regarding the impact of increasing CO2 on climate and society. North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation apparently depends on a complex confluence of different water masses originating in different areas, all of which will presumably be affected by changes in wind, evaporation, etc., as the atmosphere warms. To analyze from first principles what the effect will be on NADW formation is a task which requires an ocean modeling capability not yet available. As a substitute, past climates can be investigated to see if there is any evidence for alterations in NADW formation. In addition, the possible impact of such changes on climate can be explored. An estimate of NADW sensitivity (at least in the past) and of the climate consequences can be studied. The North Atlantic surface water temperatures can be reconstructed to indicate a substantial cooling between 11,000 and 10,000 years B.P. Were NADW formation to have ceased, it would have resulted in cooler surface waters; whether the reconstructed temperatures were due to this or some other effect cannot be determined at this time. Nevertheless, it was decided that it would be useful to see what the effect these colder temperatures would have had on the climate.

Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.

Description: At the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) a physically based satellite temperature sounding retrieval system, involving the simultaneous analysis of HIRS2 and MSU sounding data, was developed for determining atmospheric and surface conditions which are consistent with the observed radiances. In addition to determining accurate atmospheric temperature profiles even in the presence of cloud contamination, the system provides global estimates of day and night sea or land surface temperatures, snow and ice cover, and parameters related to cloud cover. Details of the system are described elsewhere. A brief overview of the system is presented, as well as recent improvements and previously unpublished results, relating to the sea-surface intercomparison workshop, the diurnal variation of ground temperatures, and forecast impact tests.

Description: Single Doppler radar techniques are used to study the precipitation and kinematic structure of microburst-producing storms. Radar data collected by NCAR radars during the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) experiment are presented along with rawinsonde data taken at Denver, Colorado near the times of microburst occurrence. The radar reflectivity and velocity structure of the storms exhibited great variability, with no unique signature indicating a microburst was imminent. Detection of descending divergent flow is probably not a microburst forecasting tool, nor can the presence of rotation be used as a precursor at present. Convergent flow aloft was a prominent feature in all events. Its occurrence with a descending precipitation shaft and/or at high altitudes is a good indicator of a downdraft. It is concluded that convergent flow is a very important microburst forecasting clue, particularly when coupled with the entrainment of Theta(e) air and a dry-adiabatic lapse rate below cloud base.

Description: The development of a man/computer data enhancement and management system to provide very-short range upper air forecasts is examined. The forecast accuracy and precision problems encountered with the current numerical weather prediction models are discussed. The proposed system is to utilize both radiosonde data and automated pilot reports and provide a 2-12 hour analysis/forecast with a 3 hour forecast cycle. The minimum energy routes using interactive techniques (MERIT) system is described and a diagram is povided. The preliminary testing of a modified MERIT system reveals that the system is not as accurate as the Spectral 12 hour forecast, but is more accurate than the spectral 24 hour forecast. The coplete testing and validation of the MERIT system is required before a comparison with present techniques is possible.

Description: Humidity soundings at 12 midocean stations of small islands and weather ships in the north Pacific from 7 deg N to 57 deg N during a 9-year period from 1972 to 1980 were used to study the variation of columnar water vapor W (as measured by spaceborne sensors) in relation to the variation of surface level specific humidity Q (as required in the determination of air-sea moisture and latent heat exchanges). It was found that a simple regression can be used to specify monthly mean Q from W to an accuracy of about 0.0008, corresponding to about 20 W/sq m in latent heat flux. The regression accounts for both temporal and spatial variations of Q and W. Better accuracy can be achieved by using regional regressions. The study affirms the potential of spaceborne sensors in providing global monitoring of air-sea moisture and heat exchanges.

Description: A brief review is presented of simulation studies and real data experiments which were conducted to assess the impact of satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. These experiments show that while there has been some redundancy between observing systems, satellite data has made significant contributions toward improving global forecasting.

Description: The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) is an interactive scientific information management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data. The PCDS was developed to manage a large collection of data of interest to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) research community and currently provides such support for approximately twenty data sets. In order to provide the PCDS capabilities, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) has integrated the capabilities of several general-purpose software packages with specialized software for reading and reformatting the supported data sets. These capabilities were integrated in a manner which allows the PCDS to be easily expanded, either to provide support for additional data sets or to provide additional functional capabilities. This also allows the PCDS to take advantage of new technology as it becomes available, since parts of the system can be replaced with more powerful components without significantly affecting the user interface.

Description: The surface and satellite imagery data from the cyclone of February 18-19, 1979 are analyzed. Operational radiosonde data are utilized to study the tropopause fold associated with the polar jet streak. Patterns of vertical motion compatible with the tropopause fold are calculated by the diagnostic ageostrophic circulation equation of Sawyer (1956) and Eliassen (1962); the verification of the calculated patterns is described. The relationship between the stratospheric extrusion and the folded tropopause is determined by examining the potential vorticity and ozone concentrations. The influence of the stratospheric extrusion within the folded tropopause on the development of the cyclone is investigated by analyzing the potential vorticity, static stability, and absolute vorticity from the Eulerian and Lagrangian perspective.

Description: Results are presented from a series of forecast experiments which were conducted to assess the importance of large-scale dynamical processes, diabatic heating, and initial data to the prediction of the President's Day cyclone. The synoptic situation and NMC model forecasts for this case are summarized, and the analysis/forecast system and experiments are described. The GLAS Model forecast from the GLAS analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February is found to have correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. A forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed weak development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic.

Description: A combined modelling and data analysis is used to examine the initiation and development of a hail-producing mesoscale convective system which developed over the Texas panhandle near Amarillo, Texas, on April 24, 1982, and propagated east into Oklahoma. This event occurred during the NASA AVE-VAS IV experiment, as a dense upper air mesoscale network was collecting data at three-hour intervals. The results show that both synoptic and mesoscale processes separately and in concert help to force the convection. The destabilization of the atmosphere due to cold advection is important in removing any cap to deep convective development. The upper level moistening due to flow from the northwest also helps to increase the convective instability of the atmosphere. The mesoscale convergence due to cloud shading appears dominant over that of topography, but the latter cannot be ignored, especially in its sustained effect. The developing mesoscale circulation also appears to tap a surface supply of moisture feeding the convection.

Description: Wind field forecasts, based on data from the Visible Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument on board the most recent GOES satellite, are described. The forecasts were used to generate a series of water vapor images for the Central U.S. according to an isentropic prediction scheme. The ability of VAS imagery to detect regions of mesoscale convective instability was contrasted with data from a 9-12 hr advective forecast and the results are discussed. It is shown that the VAS imagery was free from masking by convective outflows and lends itself to repeated applications for updating throughout the day. The incorporation of surface data into the VAS forecast is recommended in order to identify areas of persistent moisture convergence. Some examples of the VAS imagery are provided.

Description: Two analyses are performed to evaluate the effect of drift buoys and the FGGE's special observing system (SOS) on forecasting. The FGGE analysis utilizes all level II-b conventional and special data, and the Nosat analysis employs only surface and conventional upper air data. Twelve five-day forecasts are produced from these data. An additional experiment utilizing the FGGE data base minus buoys data, and the Nosat data base including buoys data is being conducted. The forecasts are compared and synoptic evaluation of the effect of buoys data is described. The results reveal that the FGGE data base with the SOS significantly improves forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere and the loss of buoys data does not have a great effect on forecasting. The Nosat data has less impact on forecasting; however, the addition of buoys data provides an improvement in forecast skills.

Description: The present multivariate analysis method for surface pressure and winds incorporates ship wind observations into the analysis of surface pressure. For the specific case of 0000 GMT, on February 3, 1979, the additional data resulted in a global rms difference of 0.6 mb; individual maxima as larse as 5 mb occurred over the North Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans. These differences are noted to be smaller than the analysis increments to the first-guess fields.

Description: The surface and upper-level characteristics in selected wind, pressure, and temperature fields of some significant east coast cyclones are studied. The surface, 200, 300, 500, 700, and 850 mb charts of 18 case studies of storms are analyzed. The surface patterns are described in terms of the type of cyclone, the variation in rate of motion, the effect of coastal frontogenesis on the storms, sea level pressures, and the deepening rate of pressure. The influence of upper-level troughs, ridges, jet streaks, location of wind amplification, and time on cyclogenesis is examined.

Description: A hierarchy of steady, nonlinear, semianalytic models of different types of convection were produced. These provide a theoretical framework for determining cloud outflow fluxes of both dynamic and thermodynamic quantities, which can be used to formulate dynamical transports in parameterization schemes. This was achieved by exploiting certain Lagrangian conservation properties of steady flow, from which an equation for the vertical displacement of particles can be obtained and the outflow entropy, energy and momentum fluxes and the infow/outflow mass fluxes can be determined from solution to the equation. These fluxes are determined in terms of grid scale parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE), cloud layer shear, and horizontal pressure gradients. Five main types of system models are identified, respectively representing archtypes of convection in zero shear, large shear, midlatitude squall lines, tropical squall lines and cellular convection. The downdraught is an important aspect in the first four of these and the cloud scale transport of momentum is very distinctive.

Description: The response of the GLAS climate model to the much larger 1982-83 sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies is discussed. Two separate 75 day experiments (control and anomaly simulation pairs) were started from observed initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1982 and initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1979 taken from a 2 year model control run after one year of simulation, respectively. The January control and anomaly SST fields used in both experiments are given. Notable is the greatly extended region of very warm (approximately equal to 29 C) SST water in the anomaly simulation. The January SST anomaly field is representative of the other months of the experiments, all of which had a much larger region of very warm SST in the anomaly simulation than in the previously noted general circulation model studies. The model used is an improved version of the GLAS B-grid GCM used by Shukla and Wallace (1983). The most important physical change in the model is the inclusion of the surface flux parameterization of Deardorff (1972) as modified by Randall (1976). An important improvement in the model simulations is the removal of the climate drift towards unrealistically high temperatures in the tropics, which was moted by Shukla and Wallace (1983).

Description: The primary significance of Cloud Deepening through Entrainment (CDE) is that it can prevent the cloud top entrainment instability from destroying a cloud deck. Without suppressing the instability, CDE transforms it from a cloud destroyer to a cloud builder. The analysis does not depend on an entrainment hypothesis. Moreover, it is not restricted to PBL stratocumulus sheets. Stratiform clouds in the free atmosphere can be subject to CDE we need only reinterpret Ps as the pressure at the base of an elevated turbulent mixed layer. Modest departures from well mixedness will alter the results quantitatively but not qualitatively. Processes other than entrainment, such as surface evaporation, radiative cooling, and advection will often work with CDE to build a cloud layer; but of course they can also oppose CDE by reducing the relative humidity. If we make the weak assumption that the deepening of a cloud layer favors an increase in the cloud top entrainment rate (without specifying any particular functional relationship) we are led to speculate that CDE can cause runaway cloud growth, even in the absence of cloud top entrainment instability. through CDE entrainment leads to a deeper cloud, which leads to stronger entrainment.

Description: The relationship between blocking and multiple equilibria was investigated in a two layer model of the Northern Hemisphere January heating and boundary conditions are imposed. The truncation varies over global wavenumbers 4-8 and the coefficients of horizontal diffusion of heat and potential vorticity are varied about realistic values. It is shown that while severely truncated models can exhibit multiple quasi equilibria under realistic domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, higher resolution is required to allow realistic transitions to be mediated by strong baroclinic wave activity. It is indicated that for extended range forecasting blocking transitions are not likely to be forecast well unless the associated synoptic events can be forecasted statistically.

Description: The observed distributions of the thermodynamic variables near stratocumulus top are highly bimodal (Mahrt and Paumier, 1982). This suggests a model based on the assumption of a joint bimodal distribution of parcels, obtained as the weighted sum of two binormal distributions. The properties of joint normal distribution, G, show that there will almost always have two distinct populations.

Description: A baroclinic model was developed. The model is linear, steady state, baroclinic (2 level) and based on the primitive equations. The unique features of the model are: (1) The basic state u and T fields are functions of wavelength, theta, and rho, (2) A mean meridional circulation v, w, which may be a function of wavelength, theta, and rho, and p may be included, (3) Dissipation may be a function of theta, wavelength, rho, p (e.g., differ over land and sea). Because the basic state is a function of longitude, the equations are not separable in wavelength and the usual semi-spectral solution procedure is not applicable. The model solutions can be found in a straight forward (brute force) way by discretizing the model equations directly on a wavelength, theta, rho, p grid. There are six dependent (perturbation) variables: u, v, and geopotential at levels 1 and 2. The thermal forcing is prescribed at the intermediate vertical level. The linearized equations may be written.

Description: A barotropic flow over sinusoidal topography in a beta channel in the presence of forcing and dissipation was studied. The work is divided into two parts: (1) computation of the stationary solutions of the model, by Newton's method together with a finite difference approximation, and comparison of solutions with the solutions of the linear theory; (2) development of a nonlinear theory that reproduce the numerical solutions.

Description: A two year run with the GLAS climate model with prescribed but seasonally varying boundary conditions provided mean monthly fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and radiative energy. These fluxes were analyzed to examine the energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the ice-free ocean. A mean annual plot of monthly zonal fuxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and net radiation was produced. From these, northward transport of heat flux that would follow if the GCM simulated fluxes were consistent with oceanic circulation were produced. These results are compared with observations.

Description: The general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere is quite different from that of the Northern Hemisphere in many important ways. These include the barotropic nature of the stationary waves and the presence of a strong barotropic component to the mean zonal wind, the lack of a strong seasonal dependence of the transient eddies, and the dominant role played by eddies with periods less than 10 days compared to longer period fluctuations. Such differences attest to the importance of the altered nature of the orographic and thermal land-sea forcings in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Some of the important features of the Southern Hemisphere circulation as simulated by the GLAS Seasonal Cycle Model (SCM) are presented. The geographical patterns of local variability and their seasonal shifts in the SCM are discussed and compared to observations.

Description: Using the normal modes of the GLAS 4th Order Model, a Machenhauer nonlinear normal mode initialization (NLNMI) was carried out for the external vertical mode using the GLAS 4th Order shallow water equations model for an equivalent depth corresponding to that associated with the external vertical mode. A simple procedure was devised which was directed at identifying computational modes by following the rate of increase of BAL sub M, the partial (with respect to the zonal wavenumber m) sum of squares of the time change of the normal mode coefficients (for fixed vertical mode index) varying over the latitude index L of symmetric or antisymmetric gravity waves. A working algorithm is presented which speeds up the convergence of the iterative Machenhauer NLNMI. A 24 h integration using the NLNMI state was carried out using both Matsuno and leap-frog time-integration schemes; these runs were then compared to a 24 h integration starting from a non-initialized state. The maximal impact of the nonlinear normal mode initialization was found to occur 6-10 hours after the initial time.

Description: The GLAS physical inversion method for analysis of HIRS2/MSU data was implemented on the McIDAS. The method of analysis is identical to that used in processing global retrievals for six months of 1979, with the exception that the McIDAS retrievals are done on a higher spatial resolution, with one sounding attempted in every 4 x 4 array of HIRS2 spots, corresponding to roughly 80 x 80 km at nadir. This 4 x 4 array is further subdivided in 4 2 x 2 arrays with the sounding being performed utilizing all the spots in the single warmest 2 x 2 quadrant as sensed by the 11 micrometer window channel. Whether accurate retrievals can be performed on the high resolution grid without editing was determined. Different retrievals for a synoptic situation was compared and the guess dependence of the high resolution GLAS retrievals were examined. The orbit crossing the central United States at 1/21/79 09257 was studied. Radiosondes at 1200Z were used for comparison.

Description: For this project, a version of the GLAS Analysis/Forecast System was developed that includes an objective dealiasing scheme as an integral part of the analysis cycle. With this system the (100 sq km) binned SASS wind data generated by S. Peteherych of AER, Canada corresponding of the period 0000 GMT 7 September 1978 to 1200 GMT 13 September 1978 was objectively dealiased. The dealiased wind fields have been requested and received by JPL, NMC and the British Meteorological Office. The first 3.5 days of objectively dealiased fields were subjectively enhanced on the McIDAS system. Approximately 20% of the wind directions were modified, and of these, about 70% were changed by less than 90 deg. Two SASS forecast impact studies, were performed using the dealiased fields, with the GLAS and the NEPRF (Navy Environmental Prediction Research Facility) analysis/forecast systems.

Description: Orography and geographically fixed heat sources which force a zonally asymmetric motion field are examined. An extensive space-time spectral analysis of the GLAS climate model (D130) response and observations are compared. An updated version of the model (D150) showed a remarkable improvement in the simulation of the standing waves. The main differences in the model code are an improved boundary layer flux computation and a more realistic specification of the global boundary conditions.

Description: The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Description: The scheme proposed by Katayama for the calculation of long wave radiative cooling rates is described. A number of offline calculations to test the new code were examined. It is suggested that the new scheme should alleviate the model's cold pole problem.

Description: A system of equations which describe the motion of a barotropic fluid in the presence of bottom topography are presented. The mathematical expression for orography is developed and the bounded derivative initialization method is applied to suppress gravitational oscillations. A stationary orographic trough is simulated. The geopotential and zonal motion have maximum deviation from the mean state at the top of the mountain. Regarding meridional speed, outflow occurs on the windward slope and inflow on the leeward slope. Divergence of order (10(-6)s(-1) is found on the windward slope while convergence of the same order of magnitude resides on the leeward slope. This outcome may have interesting implications regarding real climatology occurring over the equatorial regions of continental land masses.

Description: It is generally accepted that day to day weather variations possess a finite range of predictability estimated to be approximately two weeks (e.g., Lorenz, 1965). However, considerable observational evidence points to the existence of a number of low frequency flow regimes which are potentially predictable beyond this limit. These include blocking events and teleconnection patterns such as those described in Wallace and Gutzler (1981). The problem of the predictability of such modes is addressed by employing a highly simplified dynamical model projected onto the modes of interest. These modes are computed from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10-day averaged anomalies (deviations from the mean seasonal cycle) of the 500 mb stream function for the winters of 1967-76. The first three EOF's are associated with an index cycle and some of the teleconnection patterns. The fourth and ninth are related to North Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, respectively.

Description: The Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method differs from the Monte Carlo Forecast (MCF) method in the definition of the ensemble of initial states which are used to generate the ensemble of forecasts. The LAF initial states are the current analysis and the forecasts made from previous analyses verifying the current time. Thus the LAF ensemble is composed of forecasts which are made by a regular operational system of numerical weather prediction and the LAF method is therefore operationally attractive. The application of the authors' previous ideas and results to an operational model requires the resolution of what might be called the degrees of freedom problem, i.e., how to obtain a homogeneous sample large enough to calculate stable statistics. It is suggested that this problem may be solved by carefully modeling the required statistics in terms of a small set of parameters and then estimating only these few parameters from the data. It is noted that there may be considerable information in each initial ensemble relating to the predictability of each particular case, and that this information may be incorporated in the model of the statistics.

Description: A study has been made of the accuracy of the GLAS fourth order forecast model's precipitation forecasts over North America during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of FGGE and of the impact of the FGGE special observing systems on these forecasts. Fourteen 120 h predictions were generated using the coarse 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude version of the GLAS model from both the FGGE and NOSAT assimilation cycles. These forecasts were then verified against a detailed set of precipitation observations. Separate verifications were performed for precipitation accumulations or = .01 in., or = .1 in., and or = 1 in. occuring in 6, 12 and 24 time periods. In addition, three different methods of verification were applied. In the first method, model precipitation forecasts are verified against the greatest precipitation amount observed within a 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude gridbox centered on each gridpoint. For the prediction at a gridpoint to be verified only one observation within the gridbox is required. In the second method, a weighted mean of the closest observations to the gridpoint is used, provided that at least two observations on opposite sides of a gridpoint are available. For the third method, the model precipitation forecasts were interpolated to the observation locations.

Description: A series of numerical experiments which couple an atmospheric general circulation model to an ocean model in an idealized basin are discussed. The role of ocean atmosphere interactions in the development of anomalous sea surface temperatures during an El Nino event is outlined.

Description: The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon and its relationships with other atmospheric fluctuations were studied in hopes of gaining some insight into the predicability of the rainfall. Rainfall data for 31 meteorological subdivisions over India were provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Fifty-three years of seasonal mean anomaly sea-level pressure (SLP) fields were used to determine if any relationships could be detected between fluctuations in Northern Hemisphere surface pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall. Three month running mean sea-level pressure anomalies at Darwin (close to one of the centers of the Southern Oscillation) were compiled for months preceding and following extreme years for rainfall averaged over all of India. Anomalies are small before the monsoon, but are quite large in months following the summer season. However, there is a large decrease in Darwin pressure for months preceding a heavy monsoon, while a deficient monsoon is preceded by a sharp increase in Darwin pressure. If a time series is constructed of the tendency of Darwin SLP between the Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) and a correlation coefficient is computed between it and 81 years of rainfall average over all of India, one gets a C. C. of -.46, which is higher than any other previously computed predictor of the monsoon rainfall. This relationship can also be used to make a qualitative forecast for rainfall over the whole of India by considering the sign of the tendency in extreme monsoon years.

Description: Postprocessing programs written to analyze the results of a general circulation model are described. The model history data is interpolated to pressure surfaces, converted from 64-bit Cyber words to 32 bit IBM words, and transferred to tape for further analysis. The time average program reads the interpolation output tape and produces 15-day time averages. The model outputs a very detailed record for selected grid points. This data is sent to a tape in Cyber full words. The conversion program changes the format of the tape from 64 bit Cyber words to 32 bit IBM words, processing a month of data at a time. The grid-point history sorting program inputs the converted grid point history tape and sorts it by time. The end product is a tape with a time history of each field for every point. After the PBP data has been stored, it can be plotted. The plotting package is flexible, and allows the choice of fields and grid points. The one-dimensional fields are plotted as functions of time, and a daily summary is also produced. For the two-dimensional fields, time-height cross sections and daily summaries are produced. The model plotting package produces plots for all fields on the time average and pressure tapes. These plots include world maps, polar projections, zonal means, vectors, streamlines, and latitude-height plots.

Description: The observations of surface pressure are quite sparse over oceanic areas. An effort to improve the analysis of surface pressure over oceans through the development of a multivariate surface analysis scheme which makes use of surface pressure and wind data is discussed. Although the present research used ship winds, future versions of this analysis scheme could utilize winds from additional sources, such as satellite scatterometer data.

Description: The design of a linear projector for use with the normal modes of a model of atmospheric circulation is discussed. A central element in any normal mode initialization scheme is the process by which a set of data fields - winds, temperatures or geopotentials, and surface pressures - are expressed ("projected') in terms of the coefficients of a model's normal modes. This process is completely analogous to the Fourier decomposition of a single field (indeed a FFT applied in the zonal direction is a part of the process). Complete separability in all three spatial dimensions is assumed. The basis functions for the modal expansion are given. An important feature of the normal modes is their coupling of the structures of different fields, thus a coefficient in a normal mode expansion would contain both mass and momentum information.

Description: In an effort to improve forecast accuracy, the horizontal accuracy of gridpoint forecast models at a number of numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers was increased from second order to fourth order. The current GLAS model uses second-order explicit finite-difference formulas in the vertical and fourth-order explicit finite-difference formulas in the horizontal. Experiments are described which indicate the increased forecast accuracy gained by use of compact fourth-order finite differences in a simple baroclinic model. Tables show an increase in forecast accuracy by a factor of 100-150 by use of fourth-order instead of second-order vertical discretization.

Description: Monthly mean fractional cloud cover for January and February 1979, retrieved from SOP 1 of FGGE, are compared with the total precipitation field derived diagonally from the GLAS analysis/forecast system for the same time period. The breakdown of cloudiness into day (3 AM) and night (3 PM) is consistent with maps of outgoing long wave and short wave radiation inferred from AVHRR data. Of the many regions of coincidence, there is a particularly striking phenomenon: west of the coast of Peru, at about 20 deg S, there is a distinct small scale maximum in precipitation which coincides precisely with a maximum in the cloudiness field. This maximum in cloudiness and precipitation does not appear in the NOAA/NESS fields of albedo and outgoing long wave radiation which are normally sensitive to cloud fields. These low level clouds with warm tops are a mainly nocturnal phenomenon.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of the FGGE SOS on the GLAS analyses and forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere, and to evaluate the relative importance of its components, and in particular, the impact of the loss of surface buoys. This discussion is limited to the forecast impact of the FGGE system upon a region between 28 deg S and 56 deg S, 50 deg W-80 W which includes essentially the southern cone of South America. Although forecast skill is verified against the NMC analysis, which used only VTPR but no TIROS-N data in the Southern Hemisphere, enough conventional data exists over this region to avoid biased verifications.

Description: The GLAS 4th Order Forecast-Analysis System is described in terms of its operating system requirements. A description of the operating system structure and components is given.

Description: The physical basis for the dynamic prediction of monthly means in weather parameters is examined in two papers. In the first paper, an attempt is made to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. In the second paper, the physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, and snow influence atmospheric circulation are discussed. On the basis of both studies, the essential requirements for establishing the physical basis for dynamical prediction of monthly means are to show that: (1) fluctuations of monthly means are larger than can be expected due to sampling of day-to-day weather changes; (2) there are low frequency planetary scale components of circulation which remain predictable beyond the limits of synoptic scale predictability; and (3) the influences of the slowly varying boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, snow, sea ice are large enough to produce significant and detectable changes in the monthly mean circulations. Observational and numerical evidence which support these requirements are presented.

Description: A statistical method for predicting tropical cyclone positions 12, 24, 48 and 72 hours after initial observation is described. Satellite measurements were at the 11.0 micron channel and at equivalent blackbody temperatures which give representations of the structure of the cyclones, as well as the circulation features surrounding them. In all, 197 individual measurements for blackbody temperature were made. Algorithms prepared from a single satellite image included 14 climatological and persistence type variables, and are based on eigenvector preprocessing and a series of independent screening tests. The independent tests showed that the average error made by the algorithms from the single satellite observation were comparable to the 48 hr Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecast and were about 10 percent better for 72 hr forecasts. Forecasts using only climatological persistence variables were found to be 20 percent worse than JTWC for 24 hr forecasts and 10 percent worse for 48 and 72 hr forecasts. When both satellite and nonsatellite variables were included, it was found that the method was comparable to JTWC for the 24 and 48 hr forecasts and about 25 percent better for the 72 hr forecasts.

Description: Individual monthly mean general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere winters of 1978-79, 1979-80, 1980-81, and 1981-82 are examined for the altitude region from the earth's surface to 55 km. Substantial interannual variability is found in the mean zonal geostrophic wind; planetary waves with zonal wavenumber one and two; the heat and momentum fluxes; and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux. These results are compared with previous studies by other workers. This variability in the monthly means is examined further by looking at both time-latitude sections at constant pressure levels and time-height sections at constant latitudes. The implications of this interannual variability for verifying models and interpreting observations are discussed.

Description: A technique for determining cloud-top height by means of backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) solar radiation is presented. Cloud-top heights can be inferred using this technique of both the BUV radiance and its degree of polarization are measured by a spacecraft and compared with theoretical values. The cases of satellites with high-inclination orbits and geosynchronous satellites are discussed here. Based on calculations of radiance and polarization, the resolutions of cloud-top height determinations are roughly estimated in both cases. The estimates show that inference is possible as long as the angle between the direction of the sun and the satellite from the point of interest in the atmosphere is larger than about 10 deg. The estimates also indicate that the cloud-top-height resolution depends on solar zenith angle theta(0) in the case of nadir observation by satellites in nonequatorial orbits: The resolution is about 0.5 km for theta(0) = 30 and about 0.3 km for larger theta(0). On the other hand, when observations are made by geosynchronous satellites, the resolution depends strongly on the latitude of the point of interest, alpha(1); a resolution within 0.4 km can be achieved for alpha(1) less than or equal to 65 deg (0.2 km resolution can be obtained for middle latitudes). Resolution becomes rapidly worse with increasing latitude, and alpha(1) = about 70 deg seems to be the limit of observations with this technique.

Description: The albedo of a forest with snow on the ground is much less than that of snow-covered low vegetation such as tundra. As a result, simulation of the Northern Hemisphere climate, when fully forested south of a suitably chosen taiga/tundra boundary (ecocline), produces a hemispheric surface air temperature 1.9 K higher than that of an earth devoid of trees. Using variations of the solar constant to force climate changes in the GLAS Multi-Layer Energy Balance Model, the role of snow-albedo feedback in increasing the climate sensitivity to external perturbations is reexamined. The effect of snow-albedo feedback is found to be significantly reduced when a low albedo is used for snow over taiga, south of the fixed latitude of the ecocline. If the ecocline shifts to maintain equilibrium with the new climate - which is presumed to occur in a prolonged perturbation when time is sufficient for trees to grow or die and fall - the feedback is stronger than for a fixed ecocline, especially at high latitudes. However, this snow/vegetation-albedo feedback is still essentially weaker than the snow-albedo feedback in the forest-free case. The loss of forest to agriculture and other land-use would put the present climate further away from that associated with the fully forested earth south of the ecocline and closer to the forest-free case. Thus, the decrease in nontropical forest cover since prehistoric times has probably affected the climate by reducing the temperatures and by increasing the sensitivity to perturbations, with both effects more pronounced at high latitudes.

Description: The present lack of a lower atmosphere research satellite program for the 1980s has prompted consideration of the Space Shuttle/Spacelab system as a means of flying sensor complements geared toward specific research problems, as well as continued instrument development. Three specific examples of possible science questions related to precipitation are discussed: (1) spatial structure of mesoscale cloud and precipitation systems, (2) lightning and storm development, and (3) cyclone intensification over oceanic regions. Examples of space sensors availab le to provide measurements needed in addressing these questions are also presented. Distinctive aspects of low-earth orbit experiments would be high resolution, multispectral sensing of atmospheric phenomena by complements of instruments, and more efficient sensor development through reflights of specific hardware packages.

Description: The first year of data from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), covering the period December 1978 through November 1979, was used to study the monthly mean distributions of precipitable water over the global oceans. The water vapor algorithm is based on a multiple regression technique, utilizing three of the higher frequency channels on SMMR. The results obtained are in good agreement with other independent studies. They reveal features associated with other independent studies. They reveal features associated with the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean currents. Samples of monthly and annual distributions of precipitable water over oceans are presented, and their characteristics are discussed.

Description: Eleven sensitivity experiments that were made with general circulation models to see how land-surface boundary conditions can influence the rainfall, temperature, and motion fields of the atmosphere are discussed. In one group of experiments, different soil moistures or albedos are prescribed as time-invariant boundary conditions. In a second group, different soil moistures or different albedos are initially prescribed, and the soil moisture (but not the albedo) is allowed to change with time according to the governing equations for soil moisture. In a third group, the results of constant versus time-dependent soil moistures are compared. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27536

Description: A multilayer energy balance model is applied in an examination of the sensitivity of climate to stratospheric aerosols induced by volcanic eruptions. Zonally and annually averaged quantities are considered, with ocean and land temperatures computed separately and the atmosphere below the 200 mb level divided into eight layers of 24 sublayers each. The aerosol is assumed to form in the 150-200 mb range. Aerosol parameters for radiative transfer calculations are reflection in the solar spectral region and absorption in the solar and IR regions. A 75 percent aqueous solution of sulfuric acid is assumed for the aerosols. The sensitivity of the hemispherically averaged surface temperature is enhanced 37 percent, with a 20 percent uncertainty, when the thermal IR radiation is excluded. The solar radiation enhances the surface temperatures to a higher degree than the thermal radiation. The maximum response to the evenly distributed aerosols is in the 60-70 deg N latitudes and propagates, weakening, to lower latitudes.

Description: Observational studies of thunderstorm cloud height-rainfall rate and cloud height-volume rainfall rate relations are reviewed with significant variations being noted among climatological regimes. Analysis of the Florida (summer) and Oklahoma (spring) relations are made using a one-dimensional cloud model to ascertain the important factors in determining the individual cloud-rain relations and the differences between the two regimes. In general, the observed relations are well simulated by the model-based calculations. The generally lower predicted rain rates in Oklahoma (as compared to Florida) result from lower precipitation efficiencies which are due to a combination of larger entrainment (related to larger vertical wind shear) and drier environment. The generally steeper slope of the Oklahoma rain rate height curves is shown to be due to a stronger variation in maximum vertical velocity with cloud top height, which, in turn, is related to the greater static stability in the range of cloud tops. The impact of the regime-to-regime variations on empirical rain estimation schemes based on satellite-observed cloud height or cloud temperature information is discussed and a rain estimation approach based on model-generated cloud-rain relations is outlined.

Description: A coherent Doppler lidar has been used in an aircraft to measure the two-dimensional wind field in a number of different atmospheric situations. The lidar, a pulsed CO2 system, was installed in the NASA Convair 990, Galileo II, and flown in a summer field program that included flights in California, in Oklahoma at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and in Montana at the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment (CCOPE). This paper provides a brief description of the instrumentation and summarizes the research flights. Examples of some of the results are given along with plans for future use of the lidar.

Description: Temperature and wind behavior observed during the February 1979 solar eclipse shows significant change immediately following and up to one hour after totality. Stratospheric and mesospheric data obtained from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, indicate quite clearly a cooling trend between 50-60 kilometers with the maximum temperature decrease of approximately 10 C evident above 52 kilometers. This temperature perturbation was accompanied by an amplification of the meridional wind speed of 20-30 mps near 60 kilometers. These results are essentially in agreement with those obtained at Wallops Island during the March 1970 solar eclipse. Although the stratosphere was under the large-scale influence of a stratospheric warming, the short-term perturbations caused by radiative changes as a result of the solar eclipse did not appear to be masked.

Description: Observational evidence has been presented for the existence of quasi-periodic fluctuations of the tropical circulation with periods around two weeks and around 40 days. It is expected that an understanding of the mechanisms of these quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical atmosphere will improve the predictability of the short range climate fluctuations in the tropics. The present study evolved as an outgrowth of an investigation conducted by Goswami et al. (1984). In this investigation remarkable oscillations of the Hadlay circulation for an ocean covered earth were observed. In the current study evidence is presented regarding the episodic behavior of the tropical circulation in general, and the propagation characteristics of these oscillations in the lower atmosphere. Attention is given to the results of six different experiments.

Description: Three workshops have been conducted in order to define a research program which would in the course of five years lead to a concensus on methodologies for the conversion of satellite-measured irradiances into quantitative data concerning the earth's surface. Standardized data analysis algorithms would be the major product of this concensus. The three workshops have recommended the evaluation of retrospective satellite data, starting from the July, 1972 initial operation of Landsat-1, in order to demonstrate whether they can be used to detect climate-related or man-induced changes on the earth's surface quantitatively. Also suggested is the validation of current satellite data with ground truth campaigns in several different regions, and the preparation of an operational phase involving the testing of the selected data extraction algorithms for conversion of satellite-measured radiances into albedo, moisture, and vegetation data.

Description: The six workshops whose proceedings are presently reported considered the subject of meteorological and environmental information inputs to aviation, in order to satisfy workshop-sponsoring agencies' requirements for (1) greater knowledge of the interaction of the atmosphere with aircraft and airport operators, (2) a better definition and implementation of meteorological services to operators, and (3) the collection and interpretation of data useful in establishing operational criteria that relate the atmospheric science input to aviation community operations. Workshop topics included equipment and instrumentation, forecasts and information updates, training and simulation facilities, and severe weather, icing and wind shear.

Description: Atmospheric temperature, density, and wind data retrieved by various means are intercompared, covering the 1980-1984 period. The study encompasses such data sources as radiosonde, rocketsonde, in situ measurements, remote measurements, satellites, and NOAA-6 and 7 TOVS data. Larger temperature differences (up to 7-8 K) are noted for the rocketsonde/satellite comparison than for the radiosonde/satellite comparison (less than 1 K). The rocketsonde measurements were found to be internally consistent to less than 1 K up to 50 km and to less than 3 K up to 60 km. A general agreement of the density data obtained from small rocketsondes and large sounding rocket systems is suggested to be within 15 percent up to 85 km of altitude. The usefulness of intermixing the measurements of the various atmospheric parameters obtained from different instruments is emphasized, and some suggestions are made concerning the approaches to such intermixing.

Description: The heating associated with equatorial, subtropical, and midlatitude ocean temperature anamolies in the Held-Suarez climate model is analyzed. The local and downstream response to the anomalies is analyzed, first by examining the seasonal variation in heating associated with each ocean temperature anomaly, and then by combining knowledge of the heating with linear dynamical theory in order to develop a more comprehensive explanation of the seasonal variation in local and downstream atmospheric response to each anomaly. The extent to which the linear theory of propagating waves can assist the interpretation of the remote cross-latitudinal response of the model to the ocean temperature anomalies is considered. Alternative hypotheses that attempt to avoid the contradictions inherent in a strict application of linear theory are investigated, and the impact of sampling errors on the assessment of statistical significance is also examined.

Description: A total of 48 numerical experiments have been performed to study cloud interactions adn merging by means of a two-dimensional multi-cell model. Two soundings of deep convection during GATE and two different magnitudes of large-scale lifting have been used as the initial conditions and as the main forcing on the model. Over two hundred groups of cloud systems with a life history of over sixty minutes have been generated under the influence of different combinations of the stratification and large-scale lifting. The results demonstrate the increase in convective activity and in amount of precipitation with increased intensity of large-scale lifting. The results also show increased occurrence of cloud merger with increased intensity of large-scale lifting. The most unfavorable environmental conditions for cloud merging are (1) less unstable stratification of the atmosphere and (2) weaker large-scale lifting. A total of fourteen cloud systems qualify as mergers. Two selected cases will be described dynamically and thermodynamically in this paper. Although these cloud mergers have been simulated under the influence of different synoptic-scale conditions, the major physical mechanism related to the cloud merging process is the same as that proposed by Simpson. Cumulus downdrafts and associated cold outflows play a dominant role in the merging process in all cases studied.

Description: A summary of reports and recommendations resulting from the Workshop on Meteorological and Environmental Inputs to Aviation Systems is presented. The Workshops have been held to characterize the interaction between aircraft and airport operators with the atmosphere, identify necessary meteorological enhancements, and establish criteria for meteorological data needed by the aviation community. The topics covered included winds and wind shear, turbulence, fog, visibility and ceiling, lightning and atmospheric electricity, icing, frost and snow, rain, ozone and acid rain. The recommendations issued included a denser meteorological network with more automated stations, the development of radar systems for icing forecasts and wind shear alerts, the accumulation of a greater data base on convective cells and lightning strikes, and further study of the impact of rain on aircraft performance.

Description: Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Description: The stability of synoptic scale waves formed on a frontal surface is studied including nongeostrophic effects with the basic flow subjected to both vertical and horizontal shear. Spectral method is used to obtain the desired solutions. The stability characteristics of the developed unstable modes are presented as a function of shears of the basic flow. With the inclusion of barotropic shear the spectrum of instabilities increase. The lower speeded member of the mixed mode (gravitational-rotational) pair is influenced by the barotropic shear in the basic current and it appears at lower vertical shears. The structure of the height perturbations are utilized to distinguish the various unstable modes developed in the system together with their stability characteristics. This investigation has shown that the ageostrophic effects can be a significant factor in the development of synoptic scale waves on a frontal surface.

Description: During January-August 1978, the global atmospheric angular momentum (M) exhibits distinct patterns of short term momentum interchange across latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere winter-spring season, 30-50 day modulations of M are present in which momentum enhancements at mid-latitudes (20-30 deg) are closely matched by momentum depressions at high latitudes (50-60 deg). During the same interval there are no corresponding variations in M evident in the Southern Hemisphere. Conversely, during Southern Hemisphere fall-winter, similar anti-correlations in monthly scale momentum excursions are evident between mid and high latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter-spring momentum signatures are detected throughout the atmosphere, from the lower troposphere to the stratosphere. During the Southern Hemisphere fall-winter, the modulation patterns are not evident at the higher altitudes. Structural details of the momentum signatures indicate that the coupling is sometimes effective on very short time scales, e.g., 1-2 days, or less. The evidence of distinct anti-correlation between large regions has interesting implications for studies of global atmospheric circulation, and also for studies of the excitation of variations in earth rotation in response to short term modulations of M.

Description: The present investigation is concerned with the nature and apparent origin of a mesoscale clear zone and associated frontal line convection (a line of cumulus congestus clouds along an intensifying cold front) which appeared just prior to the explosive development of a line of severe thunderstorms at the cold front. It is pointed out that the clear zone formed immediately behind the cold front in southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon of April 16, 1982. Sequential displays of GOES-East satellite imagery are considered. The mechanism which seems to explain best the observations is a thermally direct frontogenetic circulation resulting from the combined effects of the synoptic-scale wind deformation field and mesoscale differential sensible heating.

Description: The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) plan is concerned with the need to develop a uniform global cloud climatology as part of a broad research program on climate processes. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) has been approved as the first project of the WCRP. The ISCCP has the basic objective to collect and analyze satellite radiance data to infer the global distribution of cloud radiative properties in order to improve the modeling of cloud effects on climate. Research is conducted to explore an algorithm for retrieving cloud properties by utilizing the available infrared sounder data from polar-orbiting satellites. A numerical method is developed for computing cloud top heights, amount, and emissivity on the basis of a parameterized infrared radiative transfer equation for cloudy atmospheres. Theoretical studies were carried out by considering a synthetic atmosphere.

Description: The electric and magnetic fields associated with the lightning return stroke are expressed as a convolution of the current waveform shape and the fields generated by a moving charge of amplitude one (i.e., the Lienard-Wiechert solution for a unit charge). The representation can be used to compute the fields produced by a current waveform of non-uniform velocity that propagates along a filament of arbitrary, but finite, curvature. To study numerically the effects of linear charge acceleration and channel curvature two simple channel models are used: the linear and the hyperbolic.

Description: A coarse mesh global climate model has been developed to assess ocean surface temperature (OST) gradient and continentality influences on the Walker circulation, which is characterized in the zonal plane by three pairs of clockwise and counterclockwise cells in the troposphere. The model response exhibits statistically significant changes in the intensity of the various cells and branches with small shifts in the east-west extent. The overall structure in the zonal plane for experiments with the coldest and with mean temperatures, however, remained unchanged. In an experiment involving the replacement of the South American continent by an ocean with OSTs linearly interpolated from the eastern Pacific to the western Atlantic, a dramatic change took place in the structure of the Walker circulation. It is concluded that both continentality and OST gradient are important Walker circulation forcing mechanisms.

Description: The variability of the mesoscale wind fields near coastlines which can be caused by mountains that shadow offshore wind and by valleys that enhance them. These wind, provide relatively fixed patterns that must be considered in the development of algorithms for future spaceborne scatterometer systems; mesoscale variability over the offshore regions is random and must be averaged out for forecasting yet nearshore fixed patterns are treated differently. Before the patterns of interest can be defined quantitatively, the scattering response of the ocean to winds at the L-band frequency and SIR-B angles of incidence must be developed from the SIR-B data. Patterns can be analyzed on the images both in regions selected for high probability of the occurrence of suitable patterns, and in other regions where the patterns are observed. The patterns are analyzed for topographic effects and the distance to sea over which these effects cause variations in the oceanic wind patterns. The results are interpreted in terms of quantitative description of the processes involved and in for need of modifications of future scatterometer algorithms.

Description: The utility of shuttle imaging radar-B (SIR-B) data for the detection and measurement of rainfall events is to be investigated. The investigation is described along with the approach for data acquisition, handling, and analysis. Anticipated results are also considered. The CROPCAST rainfall estimation technique is discussed.

Description: The global biosphere is an exceedingly complex system. To gain an understanding of its structure and dynamic features, it is necessary to increase knowledge about the detailed processes, but also to develop models of how global interactions take place. Attempts to analyze the detailed physical, chemical and biological processes need, in this context, to be guided by an advancement of understanding of the latter. It is necessary to develop a strategy of data gathering that serves both these purposes simultaneously. climate research during the last decade may serve as a useful example of how to approach this difficult problem in a systematic way. Large programs for data collection may easily become rigid and costly. While realizing the necessity of a systematic and long lasting effort of observing the atmosphere, the oceans, land and life on Earth, such a program must remain flexible enough to permit the modifications and even sometimes improvisations that are necessary to maintain a viable program.

Description: It is suggested that the very short range forecast problem for aviation is one of data management rather than model development and the possibility of improving the aviation forecast using current technology is underlined. The MERIT concept of modeling technology, and advanced man/computer interactive data management and enhancement techniques to provide a tailored, accurate and timely forecast for aviation is outlined. The MERIT includes utilization of the Langrangian approach, extensive use of the automated aircraft report to complement the present data base and provide the most current observations; and the concept that a 2 to 12 hour forecast provided every 3 hr can meet the domestic needs of aviation instead of the present 18 and 24 hr forecast provided every 12 hr.

Description: Use of geosynchronous satellites to improve the short range prediction of convective and mesoscale phenomena by measuring cloud parameters; surface temperature; and temperature and moisture profiles and gradients (in clear and partly cloudy areas) with temporal resolutions of minutes, and spatial scales ranging from 1 km (for clouds) to tens to kilometers (temperature and moisture profiles) is discussed. Improvements can be made with microwave sounding (temperature and moisture profiles in cloudy areas) and imaging (precipitation). Higher spectral resolution infrared sounding yields a 50% better vertical resolution for temperature and moisture profiles. Very high resolution imaging (infrared resolution of 1 km, visible resolution of 200 m) is advocated for convection monitoring.

Description: To parameterize emissivity of clouds at 11 microns, a study has been made in an effort to understand the radiation field of thin clouds. The contributions to the intensity and flux from different sources and through different physical processes are calculated by using the method of successive orders of scattering. The effective emissivity of thin clouds is decomposed into the effective absorption emissivity, effective scattering emissivity, and effective reflection emissivity. The effective absorption emissivity depends on the absorption and emission of the cloud; it is parameterized in terms of optical thickness. The effective scattering emissivity depends on the scattering properties of the cloud; it is parameterized in terms of optical thickness and single scattering albedo. The effective reflection emissivity follows the similarity relation as in the near infrared cases. This is parameterized in terms of the similarity parameter and optical thickness, as well as the temperature difference between the cloud and ground.

Description: Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Description: The Griffith-Woodley Technique (GWT) is an approach to estimating precipitation using infrared observations of clouds from geosynchronous satellites. It is examined in three ways: an analysis of the terms in the GWT equations; a case study of infrared imagery portraying convective development over Florida; and the comparison of a simplified equation set and resultant rain map to results using the GWT. The objective is to determine the dominant factors in the calculation of GWT rain estimates. Analysis of a single day's convection over Florida produced a number of significant insights into various terms in the GWT rainfall equations. Due to the definition of clouds by a threshold isotherm the majority of clouds on this day did not go through an idealized life cycle before losing their identity through merger, splitting, etc. As a result, 85 percent of the clouds had a defined life of 0.5 or 1 h. For these clouds, the terms in the GWT which are dependent on cloud life history become essentially constant. The empirically derived ratio of radar echo area to cloud area is given a singular value (0.02) for 43 percent of the sample, while the rainrate term is 20.7 mmh-1 for 61 percent of the sample. For 55 percent of the sampled clouds, the temperature weighting term is identically 1.0. Cloud area itself is highly correlated (r = 0.88) with GWT computed rain volume. An important, discriminating parameter in the GWT is the temperature defining the coldest 10 percent cloud area. The analysis further shows that the two dominant parameters in rainfall estimation are the existence of cold cloud and the duration of cloud over a point. Previously announced in STAR as N84-13735

Description: The need to study vertical velocity measurements from an ST radar located on the plains, far from the mountains is pointed out, as all presently available clear-air radars are located in or near mountains. The construction and operation of a VHF Doppler (ST) radar in the midwestern part of the United States to make meteorological measurements is also discussed. While primary interest is in measuring the synoptic-scale vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, it should be stressed, however, that the radar data set generated during the radar experiment would have many other valuable uses of interest to us and others some of whom are listed below. The required radar parameters, approximate costs, and recommended mode of operation are also detailed.

Description: Mesosphere - stratosphere - troposphere (MST) radar are phase coherent radars that measure the amplitude and Doppler shift of radio waves that are scattered back to the receiving antennas. For a monostatic system, the line-of-sight projection of the wind vector is obtained if one assumes that the atmospheric scatterers are being swept along with the wind velocity. The three-dimensional wind is then derived either by using multiple beams or by beam swinging. The turbulence intensity is derived either by measuring the backscattered power or by deriving the width of the autocorrelation function for the wind. Furthermore, some information on sharp changes in the atmospheric static stability (e.g., at the tropopause) can be obtained by looking for specular reflections. The discussion addresses the question of how these MST measurement capabilities can contribute to various meteorological and aeronomical research areas.

Description: Stereo photography of clouds over southeast Asia was obtained using NOAA-7 and the Japanese GMS. Due to the breakdown of GMS2, GMS1, which had been retired, is being used as the replacement satellite. The launch of GMS should permit the US-Japan stereo experiment to be reactivated. The Lear jet experiment based at Grand Island, Nebraska was successful and provided data on the Redwood Falls clouds & Grand Island thunderstorm; an anvil-top cirrus deck; a circular thunderstorm; and jumping cirrus. The IR temperature field of the thunderstorm which induced the Andrews AFB microburst was analyzed with 1 C accuracy. The microburst and severe thunderstorm project is being planned.

Description: An experiment plan was formulated to support an investigation of the precipitation processes associated with mesoscale systems and the interaction of rain producing cloud complexes with the meso and macro-scale environment. The field program necessary to accomplish the scientific goals is designed to incorporate satellite information (VIS and IR as well as VAS data), special radiosonde and surface observing capabilities, radar observations of storms development, special observations from aircraft and ground based lightning measurements. The observing network comprises rawinsonde stations located in northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee. A high density raingauge network and the MSFC lightning location network also cover the area. Coordination with NASA U2 and ER2 aircraft programs and with the operational requirements of the microburst severe thunderstorm program can assure the most efficient utilization of the observing resources.

Description: The installation and testing of a numerical mesoscale boundary layer model is discussed. A data analysis is first made using the rawinsonde network which shows a strong baroclinic zone developing in the region where convection was initiated. The observed wind field shows an easterly component developing in opposition to the synoptic flow producing convergence. The numerical boundary layer model is used to diagnose the physical development of the thermal and flow fields. Two physical mechanisms are examined; topography and cloud shading. The results shows that while heated sloping topography alone does create a baroclinic zone and convergence values, cloud shading is a stronger mechanism for producing a thermal field representative of observed conditions

Description: The statistical severe storm nowcasting technique using upper air soundings (VAS or radiosonde) is translated to the IBM McIDAS system. The severe storm information content of Visible infrared spin scan radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) and rawinsonde sounding data is compared. The contours of the likelihood of severe storms based only upon upper air VAS and rawinsonde data are shown, as well as the outlook based upon surface data, radar, operational computer models, and other data sources.

Description: Studies of ageostrophic motion attending jet streaks and convection are examined. Various types of dynamical experiments are carried out with the hybrid isentropic-sigma coordinate model. The effects of vorticity and static stability distributions on the intensity of secondary circulations forced by inertial accelerations as well as the superposition of an amplifying baroclinic wave on the jet streak structure are investigated.

Description: The data provided by the atmospheric water channels of SEASAT's Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) is used to investigate mesoscale structure at various stages of the development of a midlatitude cyclone. Seasonal and graphic differences in the storms are also studied.

Description: The geographical distribution of potential temperatures, mixing ratio, and streamlines of flow patterns at 850, 700, and 500 mb heights are used to understand the prestorm convection and the horizontal convergence of moisture. From the analysis of 21 tornadoes the following conclusions are reached: (1) Strong horizontal convergence of moisture appeared at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels in the area 12 hours before the storm formation; (2) An abundantly moist atmosphere below 3 km (700 mb) becomes convectively unstable during the time period between 12 and 24 hours before the initiation of the severe storms; (3) Strong winds veering with height with direction parallel to the movement of a dryline, surface fronts, etc; (4) During a 36-hour period, a tropopause height in the areas of interest is lowest at the time of tornadic cloud formation; (5) A train of gravity waves is detected before and during the cloud formation period. Rapid-scan infrared imagery provides near real-time information on the life cycle of the storm which can be summarized as follows: (1) Enhanced convection produced an overshooting cloud top penetrating above the tropopause, making the mass density of the overshooting cloud much greater than the mass density of the surrounding air; (2) The overshooting cloud top collapsed at the end of the mature stage of the cloud development; (3) The tornado touchdown followed the collapse of the overshooting cloud top.

Description: Special radiosonde soundings at 75 km spacings and 3 hour intervals provided an opportunity to learn more about mesoscale data and storm-environment interactions. Relatively small areas of intense convection produce major changes in surrounding fields of thermodynamic, kinematic, and energy variables. The Red River Valley tornado outbreak was studied. Satellite imagery and surface data were used to specify cloud information needed in the radiative heating/cooling calculations. A feasibility study for computing boundary layer winds from satellite-derived thermal data was completed. Winds obtained from TIROS-N retrievals compared very favorably with corresponding values from concurrent rawisonde thermal data, and both sets of thermally-derived winds showed good agreements with observed values.

Description: Analysis of data collected during the participation of the MSFC 10.6 micron pulsed Doppler lidar system (DLS) in the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) experiment is concluded. Observations from more than one Doppler lidar are combined to derive the three-dimensional Cartesian wind field. A comparison of radial velocity estimates at low elevations made by the MSFC lidar and the NCAR 5.5 cm Doppler radar revealed a substantial r.m.s. difference of 3 mls, and a mean difference of lmls. Detailed measurements of the horizontal wind fields and tropospheric backscattering were acquired at MSFC. These data are useful for defining future flight experiments, instrument design, and satellite DLS development.

Description: In evaluating the performance of the airborne Doppler lidar system, a large number of deficiencies or mistakes were identified in the original system and experiment plans. All of the known problems were addressed and corrected in the planning and engineering for the fall 1984/spring 1985 ADLS flight series. Thus, the most significant result of the data analysis was the input it has provided to the preparations for the new experiment. Attitude measurements are taken together with the streamlined operating procedures, color graphics real time displays of data, and better experiment design, the result is a second-generation system that is considerably better than the one used in 1981.

Description: A study of the contribution of latent heat release to the synoptic scale vertical motions in the Jan. 9-11, 1975 extratropical cyclone case study was completed. Results indicate that early cyclone development was dominated by dry dynamical forcing. However, as the cyclone matured, the influence of latent heating became more significant. This influence appeared to be of two types, (1) the direct impact of heating causing a lowering of surface pressures, and (2) an indirect role in which the heating altered thermal and vorticity gradients and lead to subsequent increases in dry dynamical forcing. The kinetic energy budget was completed and extended to include an available potential energy budget. Focusing on the eddy component of the budgets, results indicate that kinetic energy increased throughout the cyclone's development, with the increase being most pronounced after the onset of significant latent heat release. Latent heating played a strong role not only in generating available potential energy, but also in forcing baroclinic release of potential energy.