ALBERT

Notes: Abstract Specimen thickness is the main experimental factor controlling the results of illite crystallinity (IC) or crystallite size measurements on sedimentation slides. Different values obtained from thick and thin preparations are due to grain-size gradation effects, which may exclude larger and higher ordered grains from contributing to the diffraction. Orientation effects control the measured peak intensity. The change from poor particle orientation in thick slides to high orientation in very thin slides is marked by an increase in specimen density, diminishing non-basal reflections, and by a strong increase in peak intensity. A plateau with constant peak breadths is observed if thin slides of well ordered, platy illites are used. A similar plateau can be recognized for thick preparations of specimens from less ordered materials, but not from well ordered ones. Therefore, it is suggested that IC is determined on very thin sedimentation slides with a thickness of 0.25 mg/cm2 or less. Ultrasonic and H2O2 treatments enhance the degree of particle orientation by destruction of grain aggregates and organic compounds, leading to smaller peak breadths and higher intensities.

Notes: Abstract Five basalt samples from the Point Sal ophiolite, California, were examined using HRTEM and AEM in order to compare observations with interpretations of XRD patterns and microprobe analyses. XRD data from ethylene-glycol-saturated samples indicate the following percentages of chlorite in mixed-layer chlorite–smectite identified for each specimen: (i) L2036 ± 50%, (ii) L2035 ± 70 and 20%, (iii) 1A-13 ± 70%, (iv) 1B-42 ± 70%, and (v) 1B-55 = 100%. Detailed electron microprobe analyses show that ‘chlorite’analyses with high Si, K, Na and Ca contents are the result of interlayering with smectite-like layers. The Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratios of mixed-layer phyllosilicates from Point Sal samples are influenced by the bulk rock composition, not by the percentage of chlorite nor the structure of the phyllosilicate.Measurements of lattice-fringe images indicate that both smectite and chlorite layers are present in the Point Sal samples in abundances similar to those predicted with XRD techniques and that regular alternation of chlorite and smectite occurs at the unit-cell scale. Both 10- and 14-Å layers were recorded with HRTEM and interpreted to be smectite and chlorite, respectively. Regular alternation of chlorite and smectite (24-Å periodicity) occurs in upper lava samples L2036 and 1A-13, and lower lava sample 1B-42 for as many as seven alternations per crystallite with local layer mistakes. Sample L2035 shows disordered alternation of chlorite and smectite, with juxtaposition of smectite-like layers, suggesting that randomly interlayered chlorite (〈0.5)–smectite exists. Images of lower lava sample 1B-55 show predominantly 14-Å layers. Units of 24 Å tend to cluster in what may otherwise appear to be disordered mixtures, suggesting the existence of a corrensite end-member having thermodynamic significance.

Notes: Abstract White mica crystallinity studies have been carried out on 90 samples of mudrocks, six of spotted slate, and five of accretionary lapilli tuff from the area around the Berwyn Hills, North Wales. Strain was measured for some of the spotted slate and tuff samples. The metamorphic grade increases from southeast to northwest, with values of the Kübler index varying from 0.64 to 0.20Δ2θ. Metamorphic zonal boundaries follow the strike of bedding and cleavage, but crystallinity values increase into stratigraphically younger rocks on the northwest side of the Berwyn Dome. This effect is attributed mainly to a rapid increase in the thickness of synmetamorphic overburden to the northwest, comprising exposed Silurian turbidites and inferred Lower Devonian non-marine sediments. Strain variations have a more local influence on crystallinity, and lateral variations in the contemporary geothermal gradient cannot be ruled out. However, only with unrealistically high gradients would the need for a thick Lower Devonian component to the overburden be removed. This reasoning implies that the metamorphic peak was coeval with the Acadian (late Caledonian) event, rather than with an early diastathermal event.

Notes: Abstract Illite crystallinity (IC) measurements, determination of the proportion of 2M mica-polytypes and organic-matter reflectance measurements establish regional diagenetic/low-grade metamorphic trends for the Taconian and Acadian belts of Gaspé Peninsula.IC varies as a function of many factors besides maximum burial temperature and heating time. Correlation between IC and %2M illite polytypes for the Fortin Group and Temiscouata Formation suggests (i) that the amount of high-grade detrital mica in the samples is low, and (ii) that IC can be used with some confidence as an estimator of regional thermal maturation levels. Correlation of these parameters with available organic reflectance values further supports this assumption. The illites of the Temiscouata and western Fortin groups are mostly phengitic in composition, whereas in the eastern outcrop belt they are more Mg- and Fe-rich (celadonitic), but generally also of lower grade and lower 2M content. The d(060) values for illites measured on the unorientated 〈2-μm fraction of samples fall between 1.502 and 1.503 Å (range: 1.500–1.504 Å), indicating relatively low octahedral occupancy by Mg and Fe (between one-fifth and one-third of the available spaces). Pyrophyllite and paragonite were not detected. Chlorites are Fe-rich and ripidolitic.The IC map for the Acadian belt of the peninsula displays general congruence between IC contours (2200 sample points) and structural trends for the 27,000-km2 area. The highest grades (anchimetamorphic) are associated with the oldest rocks (Honorat and Matapedia groups) exposed in the cores of major anticlines. Anchimetamorphic grades associated with the western outcrop belt of the Lower Devonian Fortin Group require 7–8 km of subsidence to accommodate sufficient thickness of overlying younger rocks (on top of 4–5 km of Fortin Group deep-water clastics) to explain the grades in terms of burial metamorphism assuming a geothermal gradient of 30° C km−1. The lowest-grade diagenetic rocks occupy a large area in the northeastern part of the peninsula, smaller areas in the northwestern part of the Acadian belt, in the centre of Chaleurs Bay synclinorium, and in the Ordovician Mictaw Group. The contact between the Taconian and Acadian belt is marked by a distinct maturation discontinuity. The Grand Pabos fault juxtaposes rocks of contrasting maturation levels (Matapedia Group against Fortin Group) in the west, but shows no maturation offset further east in the Honorat Group. The fault zone limiting the Fortin Group in the north is also associated with a major IC jump.

Notes: Abstract The assemblage muscovite-quartz-staurolite-aluminium silicate-biotite-garnet-chlorite with H2O (SABGC assemblage) is invariant in the K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O (KFMASH) system. Such five-phase AFM assemblages should be absent in nature, but reported occurrences from at least ten localities suggest that either the assemblage internally controls μH2O or non-KFMASH components stabilize one or more of the phases.Least-squares regression analysis of minerals from South Royalton and Gassetts, Vermont, USA, demonstrates that subsets of the minerals in single SABGC assemblages from both localities are related by balanced reactions involving water. These results are consistent with the interpretation that the subassemblages fixed μH2O at an arbitrary, specified pressure and temperature. Balanced dehydration reactions also may be written between minerals in the SABGC assemblages and four-phase assemblages from the same outcrops interpreted to have equilibrated at the same pressures and temperatures as the five-phase assemblages. These results suggest that different specimens from the same outcrops equilibrated at different values of μH2O, supporting the conclusion that μH2O was not controlled externally. We could not demonstrate internal control of fo2 using measured mineral compositions because oxygen balance occurred in all reactions derived by regression.Regression analysis of published mineral compositions from New Mexico failed to identify balanced reactions involving water or oxygen either among the phases in a single SABGC assemblage or between SABGC and nearby four-phase assemblages. These results demonstrate that neither μH2O nor fo2 were fixed by the SABGC assemblages at these localities, and permit the interpretations that the assemblages were stabilized by the non-KFMASH components Na or Ca and that μH2O and fo2 were controlled externally.

Notes: Abstract Albite porphyroblasts are widely distributed in pelitic and semi-pelitic schists of the Fleur de Lys Supergroup, western Newfoundland. Textures and mineral assemblages indicate that albite grew during nearly isothermal decompression from P-T conditions of about 500° C, 9 kbar, to conditions of 550° C, 6.5 kbar. Three compositional varieties of albite-bearing schists, here termed PMAQ (paragonite-muscovite-albite-quartz), MMAQ (microcline-muscovite-albite-quartz), and PMMQ (paragonite-muscovite-margarite-quartz), can be distinguished on the basis of pre-porphyroblast mineral assemblages. Analysis of these assemblages in terms of the composition of the coexisting fluid [log a(Na+/H+) versus log a(K+/H+)] suggests that, as pressure and temperature changed, the stability field of albite expanded at the expense of coexisting matrix phyllosilicates. This promoted growth of albite on pre-existing or newly formed nuclei. Late oligoclase in PMAQ and PMMQ samples is associated with replacement of matrix garnet by plagioclase + mica ° Chlorite, particularly in strongly sheared samples.

Notes: Abstract Spinel-quartz-cordierite and spinel-quartz are found as relic prograde assemblages in Fe-rich granulites from the Araku area, Eastern Ghats belt, India. Subsequent reactions produced orthopyroxene + sillimanite in the former association and garnet + sillimanite in the latter. The first reaction is univariant in the FMAS system, but is trivariant in the present case because of the presence of Zn and Fe3+ in spinel. The second reaction also has high variance because of Zn and Fe3+, but also because of the presence of Ca in garnet. Thermobarometry shows that the metamorphic conditions were approximately 950° C and 8.5 kbar and the fo2 was near the NNO buffer. In Fe-rich bulk compositions and low-P-high-T conditions of metamorphism, two of the univariant reactions around the invariant point [Sa], namely (Sa, Hy) and (Sa, Cd), change topology due to reverse partitioning of Fe-Mg between coexisting garnet and spinel. An alternative partial petrogenetic grid in the system FMAS is constructed for such conditions and is applied satisfactorily to several sapphirine-free spinel granulites. It is shown that bulk composition (XFe and Zn) exerts greater control on the stability of spinel + quartz than fo2. The effect of the presence of Zn and Fe3+ in spinel on the proposed grid is evaluated. Reaction textures in the Araku spinel granulites can be explained from the petrogenetic grid as due to near-isobaric cooling.

Notes: The impure marbles of the internal Sesia-Lanzo Zone underwent a multi-stage metamorphic evolution of Alpine age and retain early-Alpine eclogitic assemblages, partially recrystallized under blueschist to greenschist facies conditions. These high-P assemblages consist of carbonates, phengite, quartz, omphacite, grossular-rich (locally spessartinic) garnet, zoisite and Al-rich titanite. Retrogressive stages are characterized by the growth of glaucophane, paragonite, phlogopite, tremolite and albite. Halogen-rich biotite and amphibole are also present. P-T estimates of the early-Alpine metamophism have been calculated from these unique high-P assemblages, in order to test the applicability of some calibrations to impure carbonate systems. In particular, some Gt-Cpx calibrations and the phengite geobarometer give results (T= 575 ± 45° C at 15 kbar for the eclogitic climax and T≤ 500° C at PH2O ≤ 9 kbar for early-Alpine retrogressive stages) which are within the range obtained from the surrounding lithologies.Phase relationships in P-T-XCO2 space indicate that mineral assemblages in the impure marbles coexisted with H2O-rich fluids (XCO2 〈0.03) during their entire Alpine evolution.

Notes: Petrographical and mineral chemical data are given for the eclogites which occur in the garnet-kyanite micaschists of the Penninic Dora-Maira Massif between Brossasco, Isasca and Martiniana (Italian Western Alps) and for a sodic whiteschist associated with the pyrope-coesite whiteschists of Martiniana. The Brossasco-Isasca (BI) eclogites are fine grained, foliated and often mica-rich rocks with a strong preferred orientation of omphacite crystals and white micas. Porphyroblasts of hornblende are common in some varieties, whilst zoisite and kyanite occur occasionally in pale green varieties associated with leucocratic layers with quartz, jadeite and garnet. These features differentiate the BI eclogites from the eclogites that occur in other continental units of the Western Alps, which all belong to type C. Garnet, sodic pyroxene and glaucophane are the major minerals in the sodic whiteschist.Sodic pyroxene in the eclogites is an omphacite often close to Jd50Di50, with very little acmite and virtually no AlIV, and impure jadeite in the leucocratic layers and in the sodic whiteschist. Garnet is almandine with 20–30 mol. % for each of the pyrope and grossular components in the eclogites and a pyrope-rich variety in the sodic whiteschist. White mica is a variably substituted phengite, and paragonite apparently only occurs as a replacement product of kyanite. Amphibole is hornblende in the eclogites, but the most magnesian glaucophane yet described in the sodic whiteschist. Quartz pseudomorphs of coesite were found occasionally in a few pyroxenes and garnets.The P-T conditions during the VHP event are constrained in the eclogites by reactions which define a field ranging from 27–28 kbar to 35 kbar and from 680 to 750° C. These temperatures are consistent with the results of garnet-pyroxene and garnet-phengite geothermometry which suggest that the eclogites may have equilibrated at around 700° C. In the sodic whiteschist pressures ranging from 29 to 35 kbar can be deduced from the stability of the jadeite-pyrope garnet-glaucophane compatibility. As in the eclogites water activity must have been low. Such conditions are close to the P-T values estimated for the early Alpine recrystallization of the pyrope-coesite rock and, like petrographical and mineralogical features, set aside the BI eclogites from the other eclogites of the Western Alps, instead indicating a close similarity to some of the eclogite bodies occurring in the Adula nappe of the Central Alps. An important corollary is that glaucophane stability, at least in Na- and Mg-rich compositions and under very high pressures, may extend up to 700° C, in agreement with the HT stability limit suggested by experimental studies.

Notes: The retrograde P-T trajectory of the eclogitic Fe-Ti-gabbros from the Ligurian Alps is constrained by the appearance of mineral parageneses post-dating the Na-clinopyroxene + garnet eclogitic assemblage and indicating the following sequence of metamorphic events: (1) amphibolitic stage— edenite/katophorite + plagioclase (An33–43) + oxides in symplectitic aggregates; (2) glaucophanic stage— a porphyroblastic glaucophanic amphibole has overgrown the symplectite, winchite also occurs as thin rims around glaucophane and both amphiboles are, sometimes, armoured by atoll garnets; (3) albite-amphibolite stage—barroisite/katophorite + albite + epidote + oxides ± chlorite overprint the glaucophanic stage minerals; (4) greenschist stage—represented by actinolite + albite + epidote + oxide paragenesis.The metamorphic evolution is complex and the decompression path, on a P–T diagram, is significantly different from those defined in the literature for the Voltri eclogites. The main features inferred from the P–T path are the following: (1) the pressure climax does not match the thermal climax, the maximum temperature conditions are in fact achieved during the early stage of uplift; (2) a decrease in temperature, suggested by the appearance of glaucophane after the amphibolitic symplectite; (3) successive uplift, probably accompanied by an increase in temperature. The complexity of the P-T path drawn for the Voltri eclogites can be explained with a mechanism of successive underthrusts propagating from the innermost to the outermost sector of the Ligurian Alps.

Notes: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

Notes: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.

Notes: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.

Notes: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.

Notes: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.

Notes: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.

Notes: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Notes: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.

Notes: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.

Notes: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.

Notes: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.

Notes: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.

Notes: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.

Notes: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

Notes: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.

Notes: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.

Notes: The microstructures in the Erro-Tobbio peridotite indicate several stages of recrystallization of olivine + titanian clinohumite-bearing assemblages. The development of these assemblages is closely associated with serpentinite mylonites, in which they occur in shear bands and foliations and are inferred to have grown synkinematically, in veins, and as post-kinematic radial aggregates. In the peridotite wall-rock adjacent to these mylonites, the same assemblages have recrystallized statically at the expense of original olivine and pyroxenes, mesh-textured chrysolite and antigorite veins. In addition, the olivine-bearing assemblage occurs in widespread vein systems. The brittle deformation of the peridotite resulting in the development of these vein systems is closely related to ductile deformation of metagabbroic dykes in the peridotite. Although early metasomatism resulted in extensive rodingitization of the gabbros, some dykes show an eclogitic assemblage of Na-clinopyroxene + garnet + chloritoid + chlorite ± talc. These observations, the microstructures and the mineral chemistry all suggest that the assemblages in the ultramafic rocks and metagabbros developed during a prograde evolution towards high pressures (〉13–16 kbar, 450–550° C), and during subsequent decompression. This metamorphic evolution is considered to be related to Late Cretaceous intraoceanic subduction in the Alps-Apennine system and closure of the Piedmont-Ligurian basin.

Notes: Abstract In well NJ-15 of the Nesjavellir geothermal field, Iceland, the transition of discrete smectite into discrete chlorite has been studied from drill cuttings recovered at depths of less than 1714 m and over a continuous range of temperatures between 60 and 300° C. At temperatures below 180° C, the clay fractions contain mixtures of di- and trioctahedral smectites, whose layer charge increases with depth. Between 200 and 240° C, discrete smectites have transformed into smectite-rich, randomly interstratified chlorite and smecite (R0 C/S). Because the abundance of chlorite interlayers in this C/S is generally 〈20%, its presence can be detected only by electron microprobe techniques and not by X-ray diffraction. Between 245 and 265° C, both regularly (R1) and randomly interstratified C/S are the predominant layer silicates. Discrete chlorite first appears at approximately 270° C and coexists with minor amounts of R0 C/S at higher temperatures. R0 and R1 C/S form a nearly complete compositional series between trioctahedral saponite and discrete chlorite end-members. The interlayer cation and Si content of smectites and C/S decrease with increasing temperature. The Mg/(Mg + Fe) content of smectite, C/S, and chlorite is unrelated to temperature. The percentage of chlorite in C/S, as determined by electron microprobe analyses, increases continuously with increasing temperature, except for occurrences of smectite-rich C/S in fresh basaltic dykes which have not thermally equilibrated with the higher grade country rocks.

Notes: Abstract Fairly strong (r= 0.75–0.85) positive linear correlations were found between crystallinity indices (peak widths) measured on the first two basal reflections of chlorite and those of illite–muscovite in 〈2-μm fractions of a representative shale–slate–phyllite series from Palaeozoic and Mesozoic formations of northeast Hungary. The metamorphic grade ranges from late or deep diagenesis through anchizone to epizone conditions. Chlorite crystallinity values measured on air-dried and ethylene-glycol-solvated samples suggest that the effects of expandable interlayers are negligable, especially in the higher grade (∼temperature) part of the series. However, the greater scattering of crystallinity values for the chlorite 001 reflection compared to those of the 002 reflection may be related to the effects of minor amounts of interlayered and/or discrete smectite and/or vermiculite. With increasing metamorphic grade and advancing equilibrium recrystallization, the chlorite compositions in different samples become more homogenous. No correlation exists between crystallinity and changes in chlorite composition as estimated from the intensity ratios of basal reflections. Hence an increase of domain size and a decrease of lattice distortion with increasing grade (∼temperature) may be decisive factors affecting chlorite crystallinity.Chlorite crystallinity can be applied as a reliable regional, statistical technique complementary with, or instead of, the illite crystallinity method. The illite and chlorite crystallinity scales used here are related to Kübler's epi-, anchi- and diagenetic zones and correlated with coal rank, conodont colour alteration and mineral facies data. As the effects of the detrital white mica can be observed even in the 〈2-μm fractions of anchizonal metapelites, the anchizone boundaries determined solely on the base of ‘fixed’illite crystallinity values may vary with amounts of detrital and newly formed muscovite–illite. Hence a complex approach utilizing more than one method for determination of grade is preferred for petrogenetic purposes, even if relationships between crystallinity scales, coal rank and mineral facies also vary strongly in different tectonic settings and lithologies.

Notes: Abstract Illite crystallinity (IC) and other indicators of the grade of very-low-grade metamorphism associated with the appearance of various stages of slaty cleavage in phyllosilicate-rich rocks have been compiled from a wide variety of terranes. IC values have been converted to a Kübler-equivalent standard scale, but the diverse characterizations of the cleavage fabrics in published descriptions do not always allow an unequivocal identification of equivalent stages of cleavage development.Nevertheless, there exists a distinct relationship between grade and the appearance of various stages of cleavage development.(1) Indications of incipient slaty cleavage, such as S0–S1 pencil structure, appearance of primary (S1) crenulation cleavage and of closely-spaced cleavage without parallel fabric in the microlithons, is associated with a wide range of mostly medium- and high-grade diagenetic IC values.(2) The appearance of smooth cleavage with a strong parallel fabric in the microlithons and/or quartz–mica ‘beards’and the chlorite–mica stacks shortened at a high angle to (001), and of irregular cleavage in sandy beds is associated with a much narrower range of predominantly low- and medium-grade anchimetamorphic grades (rarely high-grade diagenetic). The first appearance of these stages of cleavage development with higher grades can often be related to post-kinematic magmatic heating, polymetamorphism (pre-cleavage metamorphism), or ‘static’recrystallization without cleavage formation, for example in low-strain zones.There exists a relationship between finite strain, fabric and metamorphic grade in mudstones and slates; in coarser clastic rocks the same finite strain–fabric relationship occurs at appreciably higher grades. A relationship between finite strain in carbonate rocks and IC in the nearby rocks has been reported from the Helvetic zone of the Swiss Alps.The earlier stages of cleavage formation are associated with little improvement in IC; the narrow range of IC associated with smooth cleavage is concluded to represent recrystallization and grain growth concurrent with cleavage formation.

Notes: Distinctive lithological associations and geological relationships, and initial geochronological results indicate the presence of an areally extensive region of reworked Archaean basement containing polymetamorphic granulites in the Rauer Group, East Antarctica.Structurally early metapelites from within this reworked region preserve complex and varied metamorphic histories which largely pre-date and bear no relation to a Late Proterozoic metamorphism generally recognized in this part of East Antarctica. In particular, magnesian metapelite rafts from Long Point record extreme peak P–T conditions of 10–12 kbar and 100–1050°C, and an initial decompression to 8 kbar at temperatures of greater than 900°C. Initial garnet–orthopyroxene–sillimanite assemblages contain the most magnesian (and pyrope-rich) garnets (XMg= 0.71) yet found in granulite facies rocks. A high-temperature decompressional P–T history is consistent with reaction textures in which the phase assemblages produced through garnet breakdown vary systematically with the initial garnet XMg composition, reflecting the intersection of different divariant reactions in rocks of varied composition as pressures decreased. This history is thought to relate to Archaean events, whereas a lower-temperature (c. 750–800°C) decompression to 5 kbar reflects Late Proterozoic reworking of these relict assemblages.The major Late Proterozoic (c. 1000 Ma) granulite facies metamorphism is recorded in a suite of younger Fe-rich metapelites and associated paragneisses in which syn- to post-deformational decompression, through 2–4 kbar from maximum recorded P–T conditions of 7–9 kbar and 800–850°C, is constrained by geothermobarometry and reaction textures. This P–T evolution is thought to reflect rapid tectonic collapse of crust previously thickened through collision.

Notes: In the southeastern Reynolds Range, central Australia, a low-P granulite facies metamorphism affected two sedimentary sequences: the Lander Rock Beds and the Reynolds Range Group. In the context of the whole of the Reynolds Range and the adjacent Anmatjira Range, this metamorphism is M3 in a sequence M1–4 that occurred over a period of 250 Ma. In particular, M1 affected the Lander Rock Beds prior to the deposition of the Reynolds Group. M3 has an areally restricted, high-grade area in the southeastern Reynolds Range, affecting both the Reynolds Range Group and the underlying Lander Rock Beds. The effects of M3 are characterized by spinel + quartz-bearing peak metamorphic assemblages in metapelites, which imply peak conditions of ≥750°C and 4.5 ± 1 kbar, and involved isobaric cooling or compression with cooling. It is concluded that one of a series of thermal perturbations caused by thinning of mantle lithosphere contemporaneous with crustal thickening was responsible for M3. In the southeastern Reynolds Range, evidence of both the unconformity between the two rock groups and previous metamorphism/deformation has been completely erased by recrystallization during M3–D3.

Notes: On the basis of fluid inclusion evidence, pervasive influx of deep-seated CO2-rich fluids has been invoked to account for mid- to upper amphibolite facies (M2B) metamorphism on the island of Naxos (Cyclades, Greece). In this paper, mineral devolatilization and melt equilibria are used to constrain the composition of both syn- and post-peak-M2B fluids in the deepest exposed levels of the metamorphic complex. The results indicate that peak-M2B fluids were spatially and compositionally heterogeneous throughout the high-grade core of the complex, whereas post-peak-M2B fluids were generally water-rich. The observed heterogeneities in syn-M2B fluid composition are inconsistent with pervasive CO2-flushing models invoked by previous workers on the basis of fluid inclusion evidence. It is likely that few CO2-rich fluid inclusions on Naxos preserve fluids trapped under peak metamorphic conditions. It is suggested that many of these inclusions have behaved as chemically open systems during the intense deformation that accompanied the uplift of the metamorphic complex. A similar process may explain the occurrence of some CO2-rich fluid inclusions in granulite facies rocks.

Notes: A detailed high-pressure experimental study of two mafic xenoliths, in which coexisting garnet and clinopyroxene (± plagioclase, spinel and olivine) were crystallized over a P–T range of 10–30 kbar and 950–1200°C, has revealed significant differences in temperatures from those estimated for coexisting garnets and clinopyroxenes using the Ellis & Green Fe–Mg exchange thermometer. The results show perfect matching at 30 kbar, 1150–1200°C, but increasing deviation at lower pressure and lower temperature, with the Ellis & Green calibration reaching a ΔT (overestimate) of c. 145°C at 10–12 kbar and 950°C. The grossular content of the garnet increases from c. 21 mol.% at 10 kbar to 26–31 mol.% at 30 kbar. These results confirm other recent experimental studies that show that the pressure correction, and possibly to a lesser extent the correction for grossular content, applied by Ellis & Green, are not appropriate for lower pressure conditions, and give estimated temperatures that are significantly high when applied to granulitic terranes formed at c. 10 kbar. The new reconnaissance results allow a graphical interpolation of a garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometer based on the Fe–Mg exchange reaction which should be applicable to assemblages formed under lower crustal conditions.

Notes: The Main Zone of the Hidaka Metamorphic Belt is an uplifted crustal section of island-arc type. The crust was formed during early Tertiary time, as a result of collision between two arc–trench systems of Cretaceous age. The crustal metamorphic sequence is divided into four metamorphic zones (I–IV), in which zone IV is in the granulite facies.A detailed study of the evolution of the Hidaka Belt, based on a revised P–T–t analysis of the metamorphic rocks, notably a newly found staurolite-bearing granulite, confirms a prograde isobaric heating path, after a supposed event of tectonic thickening of accretionary sedimentary and oceanic crustal rocks. During the peak metamorphic event (c. 53 Ma), the regional geothermal gradient attained 33–40° C km−1, and the highest P–T condition obtained from the lowest part of the granulite unit is 830° C, 7 kbar. In this part, XH2O of Gt–Opx–Cd gneiss is about 0.15 and that of Gt–Cd–Bt gneiss is 0.4. The P–T–XH2O condition of the granulite unit is well within a field where fluid-present partial melting of pelitic and greywacke metamorphic rocks takes place. This is in harmony with the restitic nature of the Gt–Opx–Cd gneiss in the lowest part of the granulite unit.The possibility that partial melting took place in the Main Zone is significant for the genesis of the peraluminous (S-type) granitic rocks within it. The S-type granitic rocks in this zone are Opx–Gt–Bt tonalite in the granulite zone, Gt–Cd–Bt tonalite in the amphibolite zone, and Cd–Bt–Mus tonalite in the Bt–Mus gneiss zone. The mineralogical and chemical nature of these strongly peraluminous tonalitic rocks permit them to be regarded as having been derived from S-type granitic magma generated by crustal anatexis of pelitic metamorphic rocks in deeper crust.

Notes: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.

Notes: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.

Notes: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.

Notes: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.

Notes: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Notes: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

Notes: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.

Notes: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notes: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notes: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notes: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notes: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notes: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notes: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notes: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notes: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notes: Abstract In granulite facies metapelitic rocks in the Musgrave Complex, central Australia, reaction between S1 garnet and sillimanite involves the development in S2 of both garnet + cordierite + hercynitic spinel + biotite and hercynitic spinel + cordierite + sillimanite + biotite. The S2 assemblages occur either in coronas and symplectites, mainly around garnet, or, in rocks in which S2 is more strongly developed, as recrystallized assemblages. Ignoring the presence of biotite and ilmenite, the mineral textures can be accounted for qualitatively by a consideration of the model system FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (FMAS); the textural relationships accord with decompression accompanying the change from S1 to S2. However, since biotite and ilmenite are involved in the assemblages, the parageneses are better accounted for in terms of equilibria in the expanded model system K2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2-TiO2-Fe2O3 (KFMASHTO), i.e. AFM + TiO2+ Fe2O3. The coronas reflect the tectonic unroofing of at least part of the Musgrave Complex from peak S1 conditions of about 8 kbar to S2 conditions of about 4 kbar.

Notes: Abstract During the Eocene-Oligocene, the Indian plate collided with the Kohistan arc along the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) zone. The structure of the Lower Swat rock sequence, on the Indian plate directly south of the MMT, is a dome with a basement of granitic gneiss and quartz-rich schist unconformably overlain by amphibolitic and calcareous schist. The earliest superposed small-scale folds (F1 & F2) represent a progressive F1/F2 deformation that is associated with a single set of WSW-vergent large-scale folds (termed F2). These folds are inferred to have developed during oblique, WSW-directed overthrusting of the MMT suture complex onto the Lower Swat rock sequence. Metamorphism began during F1/F2 as indicated by an S1 foliation that developed during biotite-grade metamorphism. S1 is preserved as a relict texture in porphyroblasts that grew during a subsequent interkinematic phase during garnet- and higher grade metamorphism. The dominant, regional foliation (S2) developed following the interkinematic phase. S2 is associated with transposition of S1 and rotation or dismemberment of porphyroblasts. Annealing recrystallization followed S2 and continued during F3 thereby destroying or masking possible pre-existing stretching fabrics. Superposed F3 folds are upright and open with N-S axial trends. They may correlate with early doming of the Lower Swat rock sequence and with strike-slip displacement in the northern part of the MMT zone, north of the Lower Swat area. F3 was followed by retrograde metamorphism and development of E-W-trending, S-vergent F4 folds. F4 may be associated with a final phase of southward directed thrusting and inactivity in the MMT zone. Correlation of published 40Ar/39Ar ages with the metamorphic fabrics suggests that F1/F2 and F3 occurred in the Eocene, and that F4 developed in the Oligocene. F4 is the earliest indication of southward verging structures on this part of the Indian plate.

Notes: Granulites exposed in the Reinbolt Hills, East Antarctica, are part of the extensive Late Proterozoic granulite complex of East Antarctica, which includes the Rauer Group to the east and the northern Prince Charles Mountains to the west. The deformation history includes three pervasive deformation phases. No chemical or mineralogical distinction between these phases has been detected and this is interpreted to be the result of complete re-equilibration at the end of the third deformation phase. Two late deformation phases post-date the metamorphism and record a medium-temperature cooling path. A short segment of the P–T path of these rocks was inferred from mineral reactions that occurred during these late deformation phases. The path passes from 800°C, 7 kbar to 690°C, 5 kbar, indicating strong decompression, which is typical of a thrust-dominated crustal thickening followed by rapid erosion or extensional collapse.

Notes: Mafic granulite, garnet amphibolite and charnockite occur in the southwest Swedish part of the Baltic Shield. This part is generally considered to be the continuation of the Grenville collisional belt in Canada. The area with granulite facies rocks, the Southwest Swedish Granulite Region (SGR), is considerably larger than previously thought. The SGR is bounded to the east and west by two major tectonic zones. The first quantitative age data and P–T determinations for the high-grade metamorphism in the SGR are presented.Conventional geothermobarometry was applied to mafic granulites from five localities. The estimated P–T conditions for the peak of metamorphism range from 705°C and 8.1 kbar at Hallandsås in the south, to 770°C and 10.5 kbar at Ullared in the north (medium- to high-P granulite facies conditions). Sm–Nd geochronology on minerals from the mafic granulites at Hallandsås and Ullared give late Sveconorwegian (Grenville) ages of 907 ± 12 and 916 ± 11 Ma for the high-grade metamorphism, which is considerably younger than previously thought.Our results stress the hitherto underestimated importance of the late Sveconorwegian high-grade metamorphism in the southwestern part of the Baltic Shield.

Notes: Dark hornblende + garnet-rich, quartz-absent metagabbro boudins from the Seguin subdomain, Ontario Grenville Province, are transected by anastomosing light-coloured veins rich in orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, plagioclase and sometimes quartz. The veins vary in texture from fine-grained diffuse veins and patches that overprint the metagabbro, to coarse tonalitic leucosomes with sharp borders. The diffuse veins and patches are suggestive of channellized subsolidus dehydration of the metagabbro, while the tonalitic leucosomes are suggestive of local internally-derived anatexis. All vein types grade smoothly into each other, with the tonalitic leucosomes being the latest.Relative to the host metagabbro, the veins have higher Si, Na, Ba & Sr, lower Fe, Mg, Ca & Ti, and similar Al. The coarser veins are enriched in K. Plagioclase becomes steadily enriched in Na in the transition from host metagabbro (An47) to the veins (An35), and in the coarsest veins it is antiperthitic. Differences in composition of the other minerals between host metagabbro and vein are minor. Pressure–temperature estimates are scattered, but indicate a minimum temperature during vein formation of 700°C at about 8 kbar.Mass balance constraints indicate that the veins formed from the metagabbro in an open system. The transecting veins are interpreted to represent pathways of Si + Na + Ba + Sr ± K ± Al-enriched, low aH2O fluids that metasomatized the host metagabbro to form the anhydrous veins. An initial period of localized solid-state dehydration of the metagabbro, represented by the diffuse veins, was followed by a transition to localized anatexis, represented by the tonalitic leucosomes. The change to anatexis may have been due to the addition of K to the infiltrating fluid. The source and delivery mechanism of the fluids is unknown.

Notes: Eclogite facies mineral assemblages are variably preserved in mafic and ultramafic rocks within the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) of Norway. Mineralogical and microstructural data indicate that some Mg–Cr-rich, Alpine-type peridotites have had a complex metamorphic history. The metamorphic evolution of these rocks has been described in terms of a seven-stage evolutionary model; each stage is characterized by a specific mineral assemblage. Stages II and III both comprise garnet-bearing mineral assemblages. Garnet-bearing assemblages are also present in Fe–Ti-rich peridotites which commonly occur as layers in mafic complexes. Sm–Nd isotopic results are reported for mineral and whole rock samples from both of these types of peridotites and related rocks.The partitioning of Sm and Nd between coexisting garnet and clinopyroxene is used to assess chemical equilibrium. One sample of Mg–Cr-type peridotite shows non-disturbed partitioning of Sm and Nd between Stage II garnet and clinopyroxene pairs and yields a garnet–clinopyroxene–whole-rock date of 1703 ± 29 Ma (I= 0.51069, MSWD = 0.04). This is the best estimate for the age of the Stage II high-P assemblage. Other Stage II garnet–clinopyroxene pairs reflect later disturbance of the Sm–Nd system and yield dates in the range 1303 to 1040 Ma. These dates may not have any geological significance. Stage III garnet–clinopyroxene pairs typically have equilibrated Sm–Nd partitioning and two samples yield dates of 437 ± 58 and 511 ± 18 Ma. This suggests that equilibration of the Stage III high-P assemblage is related to the Caledonian orogeny and is more or less contemporaneous with high-P metamorphism of ‘country-rock’eclogites in the surrounding gneisses. The Sm–Nd mineral data for the Fe–Ti-rich garnet peridotites and for a superferrian eclogite, which occurs as a dyke within the Gurskebotn Mg–Cr-type peridotite, are consistent with a Palaeozoic high-P metamorphism.Finally a synoptic P–T–t path is proposed for the Mg–Cr-type peridotites which is consistent with the petrological and geochronological data.

Notes: Compositional zoning in biotite–garnet pairs in metamorphic rocks from eastern Finland has been studied. The Mg profiles in the garnet side of biotite–garnet crystal pairs have been interpreted by means of Lasaga's theory (geospeedometry). However, the binary interdiffusion equations are first reformulated by starting from a ternary system and using the lattice fixed frame of reference. This frame of reference gives the fluxes directly by means of the numbers of diffusing ions, which helps to check the 1-dimensionality of the analysis assumed in Lasaga's theory. It is also shown that the recently argued effect of the third cation Ca is negligible in our samples. We were able to investigate satisfactory profiles in three samples from different areas. The values for the cooling rate are a few degrees per million years if the diffusion data obtained by Freer are adopted. The cooling rates are in agreement with recent estimates based on the K–Ar ages on biotite in the same areas.

Notes: In the Caledonide orogen of northern Sweden, the Seve Nappe Complex is dominated by rift facies sedimentary and mafic rocks derived from the Late Proterozoic Baltoscandian miogeocline and offshore-continent–Iapetus transition. Metamorphic breaks and structural inversions characterize the nappe complex. Within the Sarek Mountains, the Sarektjåkkå Nappe is composed of c. 600-Ma-old dolerites with subordinate screens of sedimentary rocks. These lithological elements preserve parageneses which record contact metamorphism at shallow crustal levels. The Sarektjåkkå Nappe is situated between eclogite-bearing nappes (Mikka and Tsäkkok nappes) which underwent high-P metamorphism at c. 500 Ma during westward subduction of the Baltoscandian margin. 40Ar/39Ar mineral ages of c. 520–500 Ma are recorded by hornblende within variably foliated amphibolite derived from mafic dyke protoliths within the Sarektjåkkå Nappe. Plateau ages of 500 Ma are displayed by muscovite within the basal thrust of the nappe and are consistent with metamorphic evidence which indicates that the nappe escaped crustal depression as a result of detachment at an early stage of subduction. Cooling ages recorded by hornblende from variably retrogressed eclogites in the entire region are in the range of c. 510–490 Ma and suggest that imbrication of the subducting miogeocline was followed by differential exhumation of the various imbricate sheets. Hornblende cooling ages of 470–460 Ma are recorded from massive dyke protoliths within the Sarektjåkkå Nappe. These are similar to ages reported from the Seve Nappe Complex in the central Scandinavian Caledonides. Probably these date imbrication and uplift related to Early Ordovician arrival of outboard terranes (e.g. island-arc sequences represented by structurally lower horizons of the Köli Nappes).Metamorphic contrasts and the distinct grouping of mineral cooling ages suggest that the various Seve structural units are themselves internally imbricated, and were individually tectonically uplifted through argon closure temperatures during assembly of the Seve Nappe Complex. The cooling ages of 520–500 Ma recorded within Seve terranes and along terrane boundaries of the Sarek Mountains provide evidence of significant accretionary activity in the northern Scandinavian Caledonides in the Late Cambrian–Early Ordovician.

Notes: Abstract Aegirine–jadeite clinopyroxene (〉60 mol% jadeite) locally occurs within blueschists of the ‘Lower Allochthon’exposed in the Trás-os-Montes region of northern Portugal. Peak conditions attained during blueschist facies metamorphism are estimated to have been c. 420° C and 〉11 kbar. Porphyroblastic white mica (paragonite/phengite) within the blueschist assemblage records a 36Ar/40Ar versus 39Ar/40Ar isotope correlation age of 329.4 ± 1.6 Ma. In view of the relatively low-T nature of the metamorphism, the c. 330-Ma age is interpreted to date closely the high-P recrystallization. This tectonothermal activity is interpreted to have resulted from structural emplacement of a previously assembled crystalline nappe complex (‘Upper Allochthon/Ophiolite Nappe’) onto Iberian protoliths of the Lower Allochthon during terminal stages of the Hercynian orogeny.

Notes: Abstract Standard petrographic, microthermometric and Raman spectroscopic analyses of fluid inclusions from the metamorphosed massive sulphide deposits at Ducktown, Tennessee, indicate that fluids with a wide range of compositions in the C–O–H–N–S–salt system were involved in the syn- to post-metamorphic history of these deposits. Primary fluid inclusions from peak metamorphic clinopyroxene contain low-salinity, H2O–CH4 fluids and calcite, quartz and pyrrhotite daughter crystals. Many of these inclusions exhibit morphologies resembling those produced in laboratory experiments in which confining pressures significantly exceed the internal pressures of the inclusions. Secondary inclusions in metamorphic quartz from veins, pods, and host matrix record a complex uplift history involving a variety of fluids in the C–O–H–N–salt system. Early fluids were generated by local devolatilization reactions while later fluids were derived externally.Isochores calculated for secondary inclusions in addition to the chronology of trapping and morphological features of primary and secondary fluid inclusions suggest an uplift path which was concave toward the temperature axis over the P–T range 6–3 kbar and 550–225° C. Immiscible H2O–CH4–N2–NaCl fluids were trapped under lithostatic to hydrostatic pressure conditions at 3–0.5 kbar and 215 ± 20° C. Entrapment occurred during Alleghanian thrusting, and the fluids may have been derived by tectonically driven expulsion of pore fluids and thermal maturation of organic material in lower-plate sedimentary rocks which are thought to underlie the deposits. Episodic fracturing and concomitant pressure decreases in upper-plate rocks, which host the ore bodies, would have allowed these fluids to move upward and become immiscible. Post-Alleghanian uplift appears to have been temperature-convex.Uplift rates of 0.10–0.05 mm year−1 from middle Ordovician to middle Silurian – late Devonian, and 0.07–0.12 mm year−1 from middle Silurian – late Devonian to late Permian are suggested by our uplift path and available geochronological data.

Notes: Abstract Metapelites in the Altavista area, southwest Virginia Piedmont, USA, underwent allochemical hydrothermal retrograde metamorphism in synmetamorphic shear zones. The metapelites of the Evington Group were metamorphosed in a prograde sequence of chlorite, staurolite, and sillimanite zones. Garnet–biotite geothermometry and phase relations support eastward increasing metamorphic grade, ranging from 570° C in the staurolite zone to 650° C in the sillimanite zone at c. 5.8 kbar. Sillimanite-zone rocks later underwent progressive retrogression around shear zones which acted as fluid conduits. Retrograde assemblages are successively zoned around the shear zones with staurolite-, chloritoid- and kyanite-bearing assemblages. The shear zones commonly contain kyanite or tourmaline veins. Applicable phase equilibria indicate that retrogression occurred during isobaric cooling through c. 200–270° C. Rock compositional changes with retrogression occurred in steps: SiO2 was gained in the early stages of the retrogression but lost in the late stages; Al2O3, K2O, and H2O were increasingly gained through the sequence; CaO was increasingly lost. Addition of H2O and decreasing temperatures resulted in new ferromagnesian minerals (staurolite, chloritoid, chlorite) and changes in H2O, SiO2, Al2O3, K2O, and CaO contents produced muscovite and sodic plagioclase.Subsequent to prograde metamorphism, deeply derived fluids migrated upwards along shear zones, providing fluid and energy for the retrograde reactions. The sheared rocks underwent fluid infiltration with fluid fluxes of 1.8 × 107–4.3 × 107 cm3/cm2 corresponding to minimum estimated fluid-to-rock ratios of 7.5–21 as a function of position within the shear zone. Fluid flow was from high to low temperature early and low to high temperature later in the retrogression.

Notes: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notes: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.

Notes: The paper applies classical statistical principles to yield new tools for risk assessment and makes new use of epidemiological data for human riskassessment. An extensive clinical and epidemiological study of workers engaged in the manufacturing and formulation of aldrin and dieldrin provides occupational hygiene and biological monitoring data on individual exposures over the years of employment and provides unusually accurate measures of individual lifetime average daily doses. In the cancer dose-response modeling, each worker is treated as a separate experimental unit with his own unique dose. Maximum likelihood estimates of added cancer risk are calculated for multistage, multistage-Weibull, and proportional hazards models. Distributional characterizations of added cancer risk are based on bootstrap and relative likelihood techniques. The cancer mortality data on these male workerssuggest that low-dose exposures to aldrin and dieldrin do not significantlyincrease human cancer risk and may even decrease the human hazard rate for all types of cancer combined at low doses (e.g., 1μg/kg/day). The apparent hormetic effect in the best fitting dose-response models for this data set is statistically significant. The decrease in cancer risk at low doses ofaldrin and dleldrin is in sharp contrast to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's upper bound on cancer potency based on mouse liver tumors. The EPA's upper bound implies that lifetime average daily doses of 0.0000625 and 0.00625 pμg/kg body weight/day would correspond to increased cancer risks of 0.000001 and O.OOO1, respectively. However, the best estimate from the Pernis epidemiological data is that there is no increase in cancer risk in these workers at these doses or even at doses as large as 2 μg/kg/day.

Notes: Ethylene oxide (EO) research has significantly increased since the 1980s, when regulatory risk assessments were last completed on the basis of theanimal cancer chronic bioassays. In tandem with the new scientific understanding, there have been evolutionary changes in regulatory risk assessment guidelines, that encourage flexibility and greater use of scientific information. The results of an updated meta-analysis of the findings from 10 unique EO study cohorts from five countries, including nearly 33,000 workers, and over 800 cancers are presented, indicating that EO does not cause increased risk of cancers overall or of brain, stomach or pancreatic cancers. The findings for leukemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are inconclusive. Two studies with the requisite attributes of size, individual exposure estimates and follow up are the basis for dose-response modeling and added lifetime risk predictions under environmental and occupational exposure scenariosand a variety of plausible alternative assumptions. A point of departure analysis, with various margins of exposure, is also illustrated using human data. The two datasets produce remarkably similar leukemia added risk predictions, orders of magnitude lower than prior animal-based predictions under conservative, default assumptions, with risks on the order of 1 × 10−6 or lower for exposures in the low ppb range. Inconsistent results for “lymphoid” tumors, a non-standard grouping using histologic information from death certificates, are discussed. This assessment demonstrates the applicability of the current risk assessment paradigm to epidemiological data.

Notes: The human toxicity potential, a weighting scheme used to evaluate toxicemissions for life cycle assessment and toxics release inventories, is based on potential dose calculations and toxicity factors. This paper evaluatesthe variance in potential dose calculations that can be attributed to the uncertainty in chemical-specific input parameters as well as the variabilit in exposure factors and landscape parameters. A knowledge of the uncertainty allows us to assess the robustness of a decision based on the toxicity potential; a knowledge of the sources of uncertainty allows us to focus our resources if we want to reduce the uncertainty. The potential dose of 236 chemicals was assessed. The chemicals were grouped by dominant exposure route, and a Monte Carlo analysis was conducted for one representative chemical in each group. The variance is typically one to two orders of magnitude. For comparison, the point estimates in potential dose for 236 chemicals span ten orders of magnitude. Most of the variance in the potential dose is due to chemical-specific input parameters, especially half-lives, although exposure factors such as fish intake and the source of drinking water can be important for chemicals whose dominant exposure is through indirect routes. Landscape characteristics are generally of minor importance.

Notes: To assess soil and groundwater quality two generic (i.e. multifunctional) risk-based standards, Target and Intervention Value, have been developed, in the framework of the Dutch Soil Protection Act. These standards allow soil and groundwater to be classified as clean, slightly contaminated or seriously contaminated. The Target Value is basedon potential risks to ecosysystems, while the Intervention Value is based oqpotential risks to humans and ecosystems. In the case of serious soil contamination the site has, in principle, to be remediated, making it necessary to determine the remediation urgency on the basis of actual (i.e. site-specific) risks to humans and ecosystems and, besides, actual risks due to contaminant migration.

Notes: The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a geological repository for disposal ofU.S. defense transuranic radioactive waste. Built and operated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy (DOE), it is located in the Permian age salt beds in southeastern New Mexico at a depth of 655 m. Performance assessment for the repository's compliance with the 10,000-year containment standards was completed in 1996 and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified in 1998 that the repository meets compliance with the EPA standards 40 CFR 191 and 40 CFR 194. The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) review of the DOE'S application for certification identified a number of issues. These related to the scenarios, conceptual models, and values of the input parameters used in the calculations. It is expected that these issues will be addressed and resolved during the first 5-year recertification process that began with the first receipt of waste at WIPP on March 26, 1999, and scheduled to be completed in March 2004.

Notes: The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach shouldperform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative.

Notes: Political context may play a large role in influencing the efficiency of environmental and health regulations. This case study uses data from a 1989 update of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Permissible Exposure Limits (PELS) program to determine the relative effects of legislative mandates, costly acquisition of information by the agency, and pressure applied by special interest groups upon exposure standards. The empirical analysis suggests that federal agencies successfully thwart legislative attempts to limit agency discretion, and that agencies exercise bounded rationality by placing greater emphasis on more easily obtained information. The 1989 PEL were less significantly related to more costly information, contained “safety factors” for chemicals presenting relatively more ambiguous risks, and the proposed standard stringencies showed evidence of beinginfluenced by vying industry and labor interests.

Notes: Monte Carlo methods in risk assessment are finding increasingly widespread application. With the recognition that inputs may be correlated, the incorporation of such correlations into the simulation has become important. Most implementations rely upon the method of Iman and Conover for generating correlated random variables. In this work, alternative methods using copulas are presented for deriving correlated random variables. It is further shown that the particular algorithm or assumption used may have a substantial effect on the output results, due to differences in higher order bivariate moments.

Notes: In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include : guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.

Notes: This paper reviews existing data on the variability in parameters relevant for health risk analyses. We cover both exposure-related parameters andparameters related to individual susceptibility to toxicity. The toxicity/susceptibility data base under construction is part of a longer term research effort to lay the groundwork for quantitative distributional analyses of non-cancer toxic risks. These data are broken down into a variety of parameter types that encompass different portions of the pathway from external exposure to the production of biological responses. The discrete steps in this pathway, as we now conceive them, are:〈list xml:id="l2" style="custom"〉•Contact Rate (Breathing rates per body weight; fish consumption per bodyweight)•Uptake or Absorption as a Fraction of Intake or Contact Rate•General Systemic Availability Net of First Pass Elimination and Dilutionvia Distribution Volume (e.g., intial blood concentration per mg/kg of uptake)•Systemic Elimination (half life or clearance)•Active Site Concentration per Systemic Blood or Plasma Concentration•Physiological Parameter Change per Active Site Concentration (expressed as the dose required to make a given percentage change in different people, or the dose required to achieve some proportion of an individual's maximum response to the drug or toxicant)•Functional Reserve Capacity-Change in Baseline Physiological Parameter Needed to Produce a Biological Response or Pass a Criterion of Abnormal FunctionComparison of the amounts of variability observed for the different parameter types suggests that appreciable variability is associated with the final step in the process-differences among people in “functional reserve capacity.” This has the implication that relevant information for estimatingeffective toxic susceptibility distributions may be gleaned by direct studies of the population distributions of key physiological parameters in people that are not exposed to the environmental and occupational toxicants thatare thought to perturb those parameters. This is illustrated with some recent observations of the population distributions of Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol from the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

Notes: Proposed in this article is one possible framework for classifying multiple types of ethical issues in risk communication research and practice to help continue a discussion initiated in 1990 by Morgan and Lave. Some of the questions that each stage of the process for planning risk communication strategies appears to pose for ethics are discussed (e.g., selecting issues to be communicated, knowing the issue, dealing with constraints). Also discussed briefly are some issues raised by the possibility that risk communicators aspire to the status of a profession. The purpose is to foster discussion rather than issue a conclusive statement on the topic, because its very nature makes a definitive pronouncement indefensible.

Notes: The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristicsof those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for agiven constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions providedinformation beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).

Notes: Through surveys of students and junior professionals and interviews with business and government executives, we studied Chinese choices and fairness perceptions in risky health and safety decisions. The survey responses were compared with American responses from an earlier study by Keller and Sarin.The survey results show that the American and Chinese respondents had similar fairness perceptions, but the Chinese did not make decisions that were consistent with their fairness perceptions, whereas the Americans did. We found that the middle-age Chinese professionals tended to make choices that were more different from the Americans than were the choices of the young Chinese management students. It is likely that these discrepancies were caused by cultural differences, with the younger Chinese tending to face a stronger Western influence.The insights from the survey results were enriched by interviews that revealed fairness perceptions of Chinese business and government executives.A framework to interpret cultural influences on decision making was also proposed.

Notes: The risk of catastrophic failures, for example in the aviation and aerospace industries, can be approached from different angles (e.g., statistics when they exist, or a detailed probabilistic analysis of the system). Each new accident carries information that has already been included in the experience base or constitutes new evidence that can be used to update a previous assessment of the risk. In this paper, we take a different approach and consider the risk and the updating from the investor's point of view. Based on the market response to past airplane accidents, we examine which ones have created a “surprise response” and which ones are considered part of the risk of the airline business as previously assessed. To do so, we quantify the magnitude and the timing of the observed market response to catastrophic accidents, and we compare it to an estimate of the response that would be expected based on the true actual cost of the accident including direct and indirect costs (“full-cost information” response). First, we develop a method based on stock market data to measure the actual market response to an accident and we construct an estimate of the “full-cost information” response to such an event. We then compare the two figures for the immediate and the long-term response of the market for the affected firm, as well as for the whole industry group to which the firm belongs. As an illustration, we analyze a sample of ten fatal accidents experienced by major US domestic airlines during the last seven years. In four cases, we observed an abnormal market response. In these instances, it seems that the shareholders may have updated their estimates of the probability of a future accident in the affected airlines or more generally of the firm's future business prospects. This market reaction is not always easy to explain much less to anticipate, a fact which management should bear in mind when planning a firm's response to such an event.

Notes: This paper describes the application of two multimedia models, PRESTO and MMSOILS, to predict contaminant migration from a landfill that contains an organic chemical (methylene chloride) and a radionuclide (uranium-238). Exposure point concentrations and human health risks are predicted, and distributions of those predictions are generated using Monte Carlo techniques. Analysis of exposure point concentrations shows that predictions of uranium-238 in groundwater differ by more than one order of magnitude between models. These differences occur mainly because PRESTO simulates uranium-238 transport through the groundwater using a one-dimensional algorithm and vertically mixes the plume over an effective mixing depth, whereas MMSOILS uses a three-dimensional algorithm and simulates a plume that resides near the surface of the aquifer.A sensitivity analysis, using stepwise multiple linear regression, is performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of exposure point concentrations and health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. Simple regression techniques are applied, for comparison, to the same scenarios, and results are similar. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints.

Notes: A sample of 323 residents of New Jersey stratified by neighborhood quality (excellent, good, fair, poor) was gathered to determine if trust in science and technology to protect public health and environment at the societal scale was associated with trust of the local officials, such as the mayor, health officer, developers, mass media, and legislators who are guardians of the local environment. Societal (trust of science and technology) and neighborhood (mayor, health officer) dimensions of trust were found. These societal and neighborhood trust dimen-sions were weakly correlated. Respondents were divided into four trust-of-authority groups: high societal-high neighborhood, low societal-low neighborhood, high societal-low neigh-borhood, and low societal-high neighborhood. High societal-high neighborhood trust re-spondents were older, had lived in the neighborhoods for many years, were not troubled much by neighborhood or societal environmental threats, and had a strong sense of control over their environment. In strong contrast, low societal-low neighborhood trust respondents were relatively young, typically had lived in their present neighborhood for a short time, were troubled by numerous neighborhood and societal environmental threats, did not practice many personal public health practices, and felt little control over their environment.

Notes: Recreational and subsistence angling are important aspects of urban culture for much of North America where people are concentrated near the coasts or major rivers. Yet there are fish and shellfish advisories for many estuaries, rivers, and lakes, and these are not always heeded. This paper examines fishing behavior, sources of information, perceptions, and compliance with fishing advisories as a function of ethnicity for people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex of the New York-New Jersey Harbor. We test the null hypothesis that there were no ethnic differences in sources of information, perceptions of the safety of fish consumption, and compliance with advisories. There were ethnic differences in consumption rates, sources of information about fishing, knowledge about the safety of the fish, awareness of fishing advisories or of the correct advisories, and knowledge about risks for increased cancer and to unborn and young children. In general, the knowledge base was much lower for Hispanics, was intermediate for blacks, and was greatest for whites. When presented with a statement about the potential risks from eating fish, there were no differences in their willingness to stop eating fish or to encourage pregnant women to stop. These results indicate a willingness to comply with advisories regardless of ethnicity, but a vast difference in the base knowledge necessary to make informed risk decisions about the safety of fish and shellfish. Although the overall median income level of the population was in the $25,000-34,999 income category, for Hispanics it was on the border between $15,OOO-24,999 and $25,000-34,999.

Notes: Water pollution from agricultural pesticides continues to be a public concern. Given that the use of such pesticides on the farm is largely governed by voluntary behavior, it is important to understand what drives farmer behavior. Health belief models in public health and social psychology argue that persons who have adverse health experiences are likely to undertake preventive behavior. An analogous hypothesis set was tested here: farmers who believe they have had adverse health experiences from pesticides are likely to have heightened concerns about pesticides and are more likely to take greater precautions in dealing with pesticides. This work is based on an original survey of a population of 2700 corn and soybean growers in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania using the U.S. Department of Agriculture data base. It was designed as a mail survey with telephone follow-up, and resulted in a 60 percent response rate. Farm operators report experiencing adverse health problems they believe are associated with pesticides that is equivalent to an incidence rate that is higher than the reported incidence of occupational pesticide poisonings, but similar to the reported incidence of all pesticide poisonings. Farmers who report experiencing such problems have more heightened concerns about water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, and illness and injury from mixing, loading, and applying pesticides than farmers who have not experienced such problems. Farmers who report experiencing such problems also are more likely to report using alternative pest management practices than farmers who do not report having such problems. This implies that farmers who have had such experiences do care about the effects of application and do engage in alternative means of pest management, which at least involve the reduction in pesticide use.

Notes: The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.