ALBERT

Description: This paper describes the validation of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology project (ISCCP)cloud detections by verifying the accuracy of the infrared clear-sky radiances. Comparison of retrieved surface temperatures to other measurements shows that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 2 K for sea surface (monthly means at 280-km scales) and that bias errors are less than 2 K and random errors are about 4 K for land surfaces (3 hourly at 280-km scales). Bias errors over a few persistently cloudy locations are sometimes -(2-4) K and over winter sea ice may be about +2 K. Surface reflectances are confirmed to be within 3% of other measurements and models for ocean, except for sun glint geometries, and to be within 3%-5% for land surfaces. Sufficiently accurate validation data are not avilable for visible reflectances of sea ice and snow-covered land, but some tests of specific cases suggest that errors are approximately 10%. These errors in clear-sky radiances suggest uncertainties in the ISCCP cloud detections of about 10% with a small (3%-6%) negative bias over land. Some specific regions exhibit both larger rms uncertainties and somewhat larger biases in cloud amount approaching 10%. ISCCP cloud detections are more in error over the polar regions than anywhere else. Based on comparisons with an anlysis of radiances measured at other wavelengths, the ISCCP analysis appears to miss 15%-25% of the clouds in summer but only 5%-10% of the winter clouds.

Description: A new 8-year global cloud climatology has been produced by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) that provides information every 3 h at 280-km spatial resolution covering the period from July 1983 through June 1991. If cloud detection errors and differences in area sampling are neglected, individual ISCCP cloud amounts agree with individual surface observations to within 15% rms with biases of only a few percent. When measurements of small-scale, broken clouds are isolated in the comparison, the rms differences between satellite and surface cloud amounts are about 25%, similar to the rms difference between ISCCP and Landsat determinations of cloud amount. For broken clouds, the average ISCCP cloud amounts are about 5% smaller than estimated by surface observers (difference between earth cover and sky cover), but about 5% larger than estimated from very high spatial resolution satellite observations (overestimate due to low spatial resolution offset by underestimate due to finite radiance thresholds). Detection errors caused by errors in the ISCCP clear-sky radiances or incorrect radiance threshold magnitudes, are the dominant source of error in monthly average cloud amounts. The ISCCP cloud amounts appear to be too low over land by about 10%, somewhat less in summer and somewhat more in winter, and about right (maybe slightly low) over oceans. In polar regions, ISCCP cloud amounts are probably too low by about 15%-25% in summer and 5%-10% in winter. Comparison of the ISCCP climatology to three other cloud climatologies shows excellent agreement in the geographic distribution and seasonal variation of cloud amounts; there is little agreement about day/night contrasts in cloud amount. Notable results from ISCCP are that the gobal annual mean cloud amount is about 63%, being about 23% higher over oceans than over land, that it varies by less than 1% rms from month to month, and that it has varied by about 4% on a time scale approximately equal to 2-4 years. The magnitude of interannual variations of local (280-km scale) monthly mean cloud amounts is about 7%-9%. Longitudinal contrasts in cloud amount are just as large as latitudinal contrasts. The largest seasonal variation of cloud amount occurs in the tropics, being larger in summer than in winter; the seasonal variation in the middle latitudes has the opposite phase. Polar regions may have little seasonable variability in cloud amount. The ISCCP results show slightly more nightime than daytime cloud amount over oceans and more daytime than nightime cloud amount over land.

Description: This paper, the first of three, describes the cloud detection part of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) analysis. Key features of the cloud detection alogrithm are (1) use of space and time radiance variation tests over several different space and time domains to account for the global variety of cloudy and clear characteristics, (2) estimation of clear radiance values for every time and place, and, (3) use of radiance thresholds that vary with the type of surface and climate regime. Design of the detection algorithm was supported by global, multiyear surveys of the statistical behavior of satellite-measured infrared and visible radiances to determine those characteristics that differentiate cloudy and clear scenes and how these characteristics vary among climate regimes. A summary of these statistical results is presented to illustrate how the cloud detection method works in a variety of circumstances. The sensitivity of the results to changing test parameter values is determined to provide a first estimate of the uncertainty of ISCCP cloud amounts. These test results (which exclude polar regions) suggest detection uncertainties of about 10% with possible negative biases of 5% (especially at night).

Description: Clear-sky albedos and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) determined from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scanners on board the earth radiation budget satellite and NOAA-9 spacecraft were analyzed for three target sites for the months February 1985-January 1987. The targets were oceans, deserts, and a multiscene site covering half the earth's surface. Year-to-year ratios of the monthly albedos and OLR were within the 0.98-1.02 range with a standard error of about 1%. The data indicate that ERBE scanner measurements were stable to within a few tenths of a percent for the two-year periods.

Description: A set of system simulations has been performed to evaluate candidate scanner designs for an Earth Radiation Budget Instrument (ERBI) for the Earth Observing System (EOS) of the late 1990s. Five different instruments are considered: (1) the Active Cavity Array (ACA), (2) the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System-Instrument (CERES-I), (3) the Conically Scanning Radiometer (CSR), (4) the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Cross-Track Scanner (ERBE), and (5) the Nimbus-7 Biaxial Scanner (N7). Errors in instantaneous, top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) satellite flux estimates are assumed to arise from two measurement problems: the sampling of space over a given geographic domain, and sampling in angle about a given spatial location. When angular sampling errors vanish due to the application of correct angular dependence models (ADMs) during inversion, the accuracy of each scanner design is determined by the instrument's ability to map the TOA radiance field in a uniform manner. In this regard, the instruments containing a cross-track scanning component (CERES-I and ERBE) do best. As errors in ADMs are encountered, cross-track instruments incur angular sampling errors more rapidly than biaxial instruments (N7, ACA, and CSR) and eventually overtake the biaxial designs in their total error amounts. A latitude bias (north-south error gradient) in the ADM error of cross-track instruments also exists. This would be objectionable when ADM errors are systematic over large areas of the globe. For instantaneous errors, however, cross-track scanners outperform biaxial or conical scanners for 2.5 deg latitude x 2.5 deg longitude target areas, providing that the ADM error is less than or equal to 30%. A key issue is the amount of systematic ADM error (departures from the mean models) that is present at the 2.5 deg resolution of the ERBE target areas. If this error is less than 30%, then the CERES-I, ERBE, and CSR, in order of increasing error, provide the most accurate instantaneous flux estimates, within 2-3 W/sq m of each other in reflected shortwave flux. The magnitude of this error is near the 10 W/sq m accuracy requirement of the user community. Longwave flux errors have been found to have the same space and time characteristics as errors in shortwave radiation, but only about 25% as large.

Description: An analysis of a spontaneous sudden stratospheric warming that occurred during a 2-year integration of the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Atmospheric Simulation Model is presented. The simulated warming resembles observed 'wave 1' warmings in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and provides an opportunity to investigate the radiative and dynamical processes occurring during the warming event. Isentropic analysis of potential vorticity sources and sinks indicates that dynamically induced departures from radiative equilibrium play an important role in the warming event. Enhanced radiative cooling associated with a series of upper stratospheric warm pools leads to radiative dampening within the polar vortex. Within the 'surf zone' large-scale radiative cooling leads to diabatic advection of high potential vorticity air from aloft. Lagrangian area diagnostics of the simulated warming agree well with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) analyses. Dynamical mixing is shown to account for the majority of the decrease in the size of the polar vortex during the simulated warming. An investigation of the nonlinear deformation of material lines that are initially coincident with diagnosed potential vorticity isopleths is conducted to clarify the relationship between the Lagrangian area diagnostics and potential vorticity advection during wave breaking events.

Description: A three-year climatology of satellite-estimated rainfall for the warm season for the southwest United States and Mexico has been derived from data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The microwave data have been stratified by month (June, July, August), year (1988, 1989, 1990), and time of day (morning and evening orbits). A rain algorithm was employed that relates 86-GHz brightness temperatures to rain rate using a coupled cloud-radiative transfer model. Results identify an early evening maximum in rainfall along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental during all three months. A prominent morning rainfall maximum was found off the western Mexican coast near Mazatlan in July and August. Substantial differences between morning and evening estimates were noted. To the extent that three years constitute a climatology, results of interannual variability are presented. Results are compared and contrasted to high-resolution (8 km, hourly) infrared cloud climatologies, which consist of the frequency of occurrence of cloud colder than -38 C and -58 C. This comparison has broad implications for the estimation of rainfall by simple (cloud threshold) techniques. By sampling the infrared data to approximate the time and space resolution of the microwave, we produce ratios (or adjustment factors) by which we can adjust the infrared rain estimation schemes. This produces a combined microwave/infrared rain algorithm for monthly rainfall. Using a limited set of raingage data as ground truth, an improvement (lower bias and root-mean-square error) was demonstrated by this combined technique when compared to either method alone. The diurnal variability of convection during July 1990 was examined using hourly rain estimates from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index and the convective stratiform technique, revealing a maximum in estimated rainfall from 1800 to 2100 local time. It is in this time period when the SSM/I evening orbit occurs. A high-resolution topographic database was available to aid in interpreting the influence of topography on the rainfall patterns.

Description: This study is based on the NCAR King Air aircraft and radiosonde observations on 31 October 1986 during the FIRE in Wisconsin over Oshkosh. Aircraft step-up and spiral descent flights are used to obtain kinematic and thermodynamic data. In the step-up maneuver, six different penetrations were made between 1528 and 1616 UTC. Each penetration was about 30 km long separated in the vertical by about 300 m. The time difference between the two spiral soundings was about 43 min. The aircraft descended at a rate of 1.5 m/s during these spiral soundings. Kinematic, cloud physical, and radiometric observations from various instruments are used to estimate the different terms in the moisture- and heat-budget equations. The results show that the advection terms, estimated using the mean longitudinal wind and vertical velocities, and radiative fluxes are important in forming budgets for the cirrus layers. Ice-crystal growth is significant in the upper layers. The maintenance of cirrus can be attributed to relatively warm and moist air advection, radiative cooling at upper levels, and moisture advection in the vertical. Turbulent heat and moisture fluxes are found to be significant in the low levels of cirrus.

Description: The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Description: During the tropical experiment of NASA's Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Program (STEP), in situ radon and other trace constituent measurements were made aboard a NASA ER-2 high-altitude research aircraft to investigate the mechanisms of irreversible transfers from the troposphere into the tropical stratosphere. Observations made in and downwind of the cirrus shields of three large tropical cyclones and downwind of the cirrus anvil of a large cumulonimbus cloud cluster showed several clear instances of elevated radon activity occurring simultaneously with low total water mixing ratios. These observations are unambiguous evidence of an effective dehydration process, capable of reducing total water vapor mixing ratios to less than 2.5 ppmv, occurring in conjunction with troposphere-to-stratosphere transport and indicate that rapid localized convection, rather than slow regional mean motions, was responsible for the observed transports and associated with the accompanying dehydration. Radon activities measured in regions of active or recent troposphere-to-stratosphere transport were consistent with the 17 pCi/scm mean value needed to support the observed abundance of stratospheric 210 Pb.

Description: Measurements of stratospheric and upper tropospheric cloud water plus water vapor (total water) and water vapor were made with two Lyman alpha hygrometers as part of the STEP tropical experiment. The in situ measurements were made in the Darwin, Australia, area in January and February of 1987 on an ER-2 aircraft. Average stratospheric water vapor at a potential temperature of 375 K (the average value of Theta at the tropopause) was 2.4 parts per million by volume (ppmv). This water mixing ratio is below the 3.0 to 4.0 ppmv necessary to be consistent with the observed upper stratospheric dryness. Saturation with respect to ice and the potential for dehydration was observed up to Theta = 402 K.

Description: The STEP tropical objectives were successfully met during the flight experiments conducted from Darwin, Australia, January 16 to February 16, 1987. Necessary and sufficient measurements were made in, above, and downwind from very cold cirrus clouds, produced by three convective cloud types, to demonstrate irreversible mass transports into and dehydration in the lower tropical stratosphere. The three types are defined and described in terms of the physical processes that produce them and illustrated by examples derived from in situ and remote measurements. Intense solar heating is shown to produce, in addition to the usual vertical, sea breeze circulations normal to the coastline, an unusual pair of continental spanning, horizontal circulations. An upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric anticyclonic circulation, inclined upward toward the tropics, contributes to the dehydration of dissipating cirrus anvils and intensifies the upper level, tropical easterlies. The lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation with tropical westerlies and extratropical easterlies is in direct conflict with the normal tropical easterlies and extratropical westerlies. Impulsive switches between these two opposing lower-level wind systems create conditions favorable for each of these cloud types and explain the summer season's aperiodic variability.

Description: Overflights of a tropical cyclone during the Australian winter monsoon field experiment of the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) show the presence of two mesoscale phenomena: a vertically propagating gravity wave with a horizontal wavelength of about 110 km and a feature with a horizontal scale comparable to that of the cyclone's entire cloud shield. The larger feature is fairly steady, though its physical interpretation is ambiguous. The 110-km gravity wave is transient, having maximum amplitude early in the flight and decreasing in amplitude thereafter. Its scale is comparable to that of 100-to 150-km-diameter cells of low satellite brightness temperatures within the overall cyclone cloud shield; these cells have lifetimes of 4.5 to 6 hrs. These cells correspond to regions of enhanced convection, higher cloud altitude, and upwardly displaced potential temperature surfaces. The temporal and spatial distribution of meteorological variables associated with the 110-km gravity wave can be simulated by a slowly moving transient forcing at the anvil top having an amplitude of 400-600 m, a lifetime of 4.5-6 hrs, and a size comparable to the cells of low brightness temperature.

Description: An overview is presented of the tropical component of STEP. The STEP cooperative experiments are described and summaries are presented of the STEP tropical ER-2 aircraft flights. STEP tropical results on dehydration and transfer and the mechanisms of upward transfer are summarized. Illustrations show flight paths for each sortie on satellite images and on 100 hPa synoptic flow charts, as well as the timing of flights with respect to overall cloudiness in the Australian region.

Description: The relationship between deep convection and tropopause cold trap conditions is examined for the tropical northern Australia region during the 1986-87 summer monsoon season, emphasizing the Australia Monsoon Experiment (AMEX) period when the NASA Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange Project (STEP) was being conducted. The factors related to the spatial and temporal variability of the cold point potential temperature (CPPT) are investigated. A framework is developed for describing the relationships among surface average equivalent potential temperature in the surface layer (AEPTSL) the height of deep convection, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. The time-mean pattern of convection, large-scale circulation, and surface AEPTSL in the Australian monsoon and the evolution of the convective environment during the monsoon period and the extended transition season which preceded it are described. The time-mean fields of cold point level variables are examined and the statistical relationships between mean CPPT, surface AEPTSL, and deep convection are described. Day-to-day variations of CPPT are examined in terms of these time mean relationships.

Description: The study presents a methodology developed to apply a parameterization of radiative transfer calculations to satellite analyses of cirrus clouds. Cloud heights and optical depths are derived from visible and IR window measurements taken during FIRE when cirrus clouds were present. Geostationary satellite retrievals are compared to lidar-derived cloud heights and retrievals from a polar-orbiting satellite taken at different angles to determine which theoretical models of scattering phase function and single-scattering albedo best represent actual cirrus clouds. Models using small scattering phase function and single-scattering albedo best represent actual cirrus clouds. It is concluded that interpretation of cirrus reflectance with water-droplet models leads to biased results. The cloud-height and optical depth biases can be minimized with the aid of the C20 or cirrostratus models.

Description: Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from Nimbus-7 ERB wide field-of-view instruments are compared with results from the ERBE instruments aboard the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 satellites. Over most regions of the globe, the agreement between the two sets of OLR results is generally to within 8 W/sq m. There are larger differences at higher latitudes and regions concentrated over land and desert. Results of daytime and nighttime differences suggest that the shortwave channels may be at fault due to their different design for Nimbus-7 and NOAA-9. Some of the differences may also be related to different viewing geometry of the two satellites.

Description: Two simple techniques (Continuum Interpolated Band Ratio, CIBR, and Narrow/Wide ratio, N/W) to retrieve path precipitable water from AVIRIS high spectral resolution radiance data using the 940 nm water absorption band are compared. A sensitivity analysis was performed using the radiative transfer code LOWTRAN 7 to determine which one of these two approaches will provide a better estimate over land and water areas. The CIBR proved to be the technique less sensitive to perturbing effects, except for errors in visibility estimate. Both techniques were applied to AVIRIS radiance data acquired over Salton Sea, California. Resulting images confirmed that the use of a constant gray reflectance in the model led to a higher overestimation of the amount of water retrieved for N/W over vegetated areas. Validation was performed through comparison between an independent estimate of water vapor from concurrent Reagan sunphotometer measurements and AVIRIS estimates. Amounts retrieved using the N/W approach match more closely in situ measurements, even after adjusting model parameters for background reflectance, viewing geometry, and type of aerosol at the site.

Description: The viscous interfacial-sublayer model of Liu et al. (1979) is used to derive four bulk schemes (LKB, FG, D, and DB), with the flux-profile relationships of Lie et al., Francey and Garratt (1981), Dyer (1974), and Dyer and Bradley (1982). These schemes, with stability-dependent transfer coefficients, are tested against the eddy-correlation fluxes measured at the 50-m flight level above the western Atlantic Ocean during cold-air outbreaks. The bulk fluxes of momentum (tau), sensible heat (H), and latent heat (E) are found to increase with various von Karman constants. The dependence of transfer coefficients on wind speeds and roughness lengths is discussed. The transfer coefficients for tau and E agree excellently between LKB and FG. The ratio of the coefficent for H of LKB to that of FG, increasing with decreasing stability, is very sensitive to stability at low winds, but approaches the neutral value of 1.25 at high winds.

Description: The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

Description: A 2D time-dependent and nonhydrostatic numerical cloud model is presently used to estimate the heating, moisture, and water budgets in the convective and stratiform regions for both a tropical and a midlatitude squall line. The model encompasses a parameterized, three-class ice phase microphysical scheme and longwave radiative transfer process. It is noted that the convective region plays an important role in the generation of stratiform rainfall for both cases. While a midlevel minimum in the moisture profile for the tropical case is due to vertical eddy transport in the convective region, the contribution to the heating budget by the cloud-scale fluxes is minor; by contrast, the vertical eddy heat-flux is relatively important for the midlatitude case due to the stronger vertical velocities present in the convective cells.

Description: The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II has one channel at 940 nm related to water vapor. Two inversion procedures were developed independently in order to obtain the water vapor profile: the Chahine method by the Langley Research Center, and the Mill method by the Laboratoire d'Optique Atmospherique. Comparisons were made between these two algorithms and some results are presented at midlatitudes (about 45 deg N) and tropical latitudes (12-25 deg S). They are compared with in situ frost point hygrometer data provided by balloon experiments from the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique. At +/- 0.5 ppmv, agreement between the inversion results and the experimental results was obtained in the altitude range from 18-19 to 26-27 km. Below 18-19 km and above 26-27 km the error is larger (sometimes 1 ppmv and more).

Description: Data collected by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II are presented, showing annual variations of water vapor in the stratosphere and the upper troposphere. The altitude-time cross sections of water vapor were found to exhibit annually repeatable patterns in both hemispheres, with a yearly minimum in water vapor appearing in both hemispheres at about the same time, supporting the concept of a common source for stratospheric dry air. A linear regression analysis was applied to the three-year data set to elucidate global values and variations of water vapor ratio.

Description: The annual mean and the annual amplitude of ozone have been derived from ozone measurements from the SBUV and SBUV/2 spectrometers on board the Nimbus-7 and NOAA-11 satellites. These values differ significantly from values calculated using a two-dimensional model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics with standard chemistry. We have found that the differences between the calculated and data-derived values are considerably improved by changing the partitioning in the Cly family to create a larger reservoir of HCl and reducing ClO. This is accomplished by including a channel for the products HCl + O2 from the reaction ClO + OH in addition to the products Cl + HO2. This partitioning also improves the agreement between the calculated and measured values of ClO/HCl ratio.

Description: Errors have been analyzed for monthly-average downward and net longwave surface fluxes derived on a 5-deg equal-area grid over the globe, using a satellite technique. Meteorological data used in this technique are available from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) system flown aboard NOAA's operational sun-synchronous satellites. The data used are for February 1982 from NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 satellites. The errors in the parametrized equations were estimated by comparing their results with those from a detailed radiative transfer model. The errors in the TOVS-derived surface temperature, water vapor burden, and cloud cover were estimated by comparing these meteorological parameters with independent measurements obtained from other satellite sources. Analysis of the overall errors shows that the present technique could lead to underestimation of downward fluxes by 5 to 15 W/sq m and net fluxes by 4 to 12 W/sq m.

Description: Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Description: Fast and accurate parameterizations have been developed for the transmission functions of the CO2 9.4- and 10.4-micron bands, as well as the CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-22 bands located in the 8-12-micron region. The parameterizations are based on line-by-line calculations of transmission functions for the CO2 bands and on high spectral resolution laboratory measurements of the absorption coefficients for the CFC bands. Also developed are the parameterizations for the H2O transmission functions for the corresponding spectral bands. Compared to the high-resolution calculations, fluxes at the tropopause computed with the parameterizations are accurate to within 10 percent when overlapping of gas absorptions within a band is taken into account. For individual gas absorption, the accuracy is of order 0-2 percent. The climatic effects of these trace gases have been studied using a zonally averaged multilayer energy balance model, which includes seasonal cycles and a simplified deep ocean. With the trace gas abundances taken to follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Low Emissions 'B' scenario, the transient response of the surface temperature is simulated for the period 1900-2060.

Description: The relation between the distribution of equivalent reflectivity, Z(sub e), measured by an airborne C-band radar and that for rain rate, R, measured concurrently by a disdrometer on the same aircraft in the eyewall and outer bands of Hurricane Anita (1977) was investigated using the probability-matching method (PMM). It was found that the pdf of R is much narrower in the outer rainbands of Hurricane Anita than in the eyewall, and that the mean rain rates are also much smaller. It is shown that the use of PMM provides more realistic relations than the conventional power-law Z-R regression relations based upon scatter-plots of disdrometer measurements, showing higher eyewall reflectivities for the same rain rates at rates in excess of 6.3 mm/h.

Description: Procedures are described for normalizing the radiometric calibration of image radiances obtained from geostationary weather satellites that contributed data to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The key step is comparison of coincident and collocated measurements made by each satellite and the concurrent AVHRR on the 'afternoon' NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellite at the same viewing geometry. The results of this comparison allow transfer of the AVHRR absolute calibration, which has been established over the whole series, to the radiometers on the geostationary satellites. Results are given for Meteosat-2, 3, and 4, for GOES-5, 6, and 7, for GMS-2, 3, and 4 and for Insat-1B. The relative stability of the calibrations of these radiance data is estimated to be within +/- 3 percent; the uncertainty of the absolute calibrations is estimated to be less than 10 percent. The remaining uncertainties are at least two times smaller than for the original radiance data.

Description: Surface areas, bulk densities, and porosities of ices formed at 85 or 200 K are measured to study the morphology of the vapor-deposited ices that have been used to simulate ice clouds in the laboratory. Surface areas are measured from the Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller (BET) analysis of absorption isotherms obtained at 72.2 K. Bulk densities and porosities are determined photogrammetrically. Results show that water ice and HNO3-H2O ice films deposited from the vapor at temperatures below 200 K exhibit large BET surface areas and are highly porous. For the ices annealed at temperatures above 200 K, external surface areas calculated from the observed particle sizes agree reasonably well with the BET areas, which indicates that the annealed ices are composed of nonporous particles and that the porosity of these ices is due to interstices among the particles.

Description: The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Description: The effect of smoke aerosol particles on the properties of low cumulus and stratocumulus clouds is studied on the basis of NOAA AVHRR images taken over the Brazilian Amazon Basin during the biomass burning season of 1987. The reflectance at a wavelength of 0.64 micron and the drop size, derived from the cloud reflectance at 3.75 microns, is studied for tens of thousands of clouds. It is shown that the presence of dense smoke can reduce the remotely sensed drop size of continental cloud drops from 15 to 9 microns. Due to both the high initial reflectance of clouds in the visible part of the spectrum and the presence of graphitic carbon, the average cloud reflectance at 0.6 micron is reduced from 0.71 to 0.68 for an increase in smoke optical thickness from 0.1 to 2.0. High concentration of aerosol particles is shown to cause a decrease in the cloud-drop size, and smoke is found to darken the bright Amazonian clouds.

Description: A global, 7-year satellite-based record of ocean surface solar irradiance (SSI) is used to assess the realism of ocean SSI simulated by the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) General Circulation Model (GCM). January and July climatologies of net SSI produced by the model are compared with corresponding satellite climatologies for the world oceans between 54 deg N and 54 deg S. This comparison of climatologies indicates areas of strengths and weaknesses in the GCM treatment of cloud-radiation interactions, the major source of model uncertainty. Realism of ocean SSI is also important for applications such as incorporating the GLA GCM into a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. The results show that the GLA GCM simulates too much SSI in the extratropics and too little in the tropics, especially in the summer hemisphere. These discrepancies reach magnitudes of 60 W/sq m and more. The discrepancies are particularly large in the July case off the western coast of North America. Positive and negative discrepancies in SSI are shown to be consistent with discrepancies in planetary albedo.

Description: Recent analyses of wind speed measurements by the Geosat altimeter showed that the radar cross section is affected by oceanographic factors, particularly by the degree of sea development, which are not directly accounted for in the geophysical model functions (GMF). In the present work, two new GMFs which account for the effects of the actual degree of sea development are proposed. Along with the radar cross section, these models use significant wave height information. One particular version is recommended for applications in oceanographic and climate studies where wind speed (or wind stress) data have to be binned (i.e., averaged over time and/or space intervals). The accuracy of this GMF (overall bias of 0.1 m/s and rms error of about 1.6 m/s) is higher than the accuracy of commonly employed GMFs, while the wave-age-related trend is reduced to a geophysically insignificant level. Finally, the wind speed histograms for the collocated data set are derived and compared with the ground truth data as well as with the histograms yielded by presently known GMFs. It is also shown that the accuracy of altimeter measurements could be increased even further if some additional information on the wave field were available from independent sources (e.g., the dominant wavelength from synthetic aperture radar images).

Description: The diurnal variation of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and its annual variation were studied using scanner products from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Data from the combination of sun synchronous polar orbiter NOAA-9 and mid-inclined precessing orbit Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), which provide the best diurnal global coverage, were used for the period of March 1985 to February 1986. Harmonic analysis was performed on monthly mean hourly OLR for both average sky and clear sky conditions in order to obtain the amplitude and phase of the OLR diurnal cycle. Large diurnal amplitudes are noticed mostly over desert regions. Over oceans, convectively active regions like the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) show noticeable diurnal variation compared to the rest of the regions. Annual variation of the OLR diurnal amplitude was compared with annual variation of the various earth radiation budget parameters. A good relationship was found between the OLR diurnal amplitude and the monthly mean net radiation and incoming solar radiation.

Description: Preliminary results are presented from multiparameter airborne radar measurements of tropical storms. The experiment was conducted in the western Pacific in September 1990 with the NASA DC-8 aircraft that was equipped with a dual-wavelength radar at X and Ka bands and several microwave radiometers. The modification to dual-polarization at X-band radar enabled measurements of the linear depolarization ratio (LDR). Vertical profiles of dual-polarization and dual-frequency observables for an example of stratiform rain and three examples of convective rain cells are examined. It is shown that at nadir incidence the LDR measurement often can be used to distinguish the phase states of the hydrometeors and to identify the melting layer. In addition to the information concerning particle shape and orientation from LDR, the ratio of the radar reflectivity factors in two frequency bands (X and Ka bands) provides insight into particle size. The capabilities of dual-wavelength and dual-polarization radar in the identification of particle size and phase will be important considerations in the design of future spaceborne weather radars.

Description: The probability matching method (PMM) is used as a basis for estimating attenuation in tropical rains near Darwin, Australia. PMM provides a climatological relationship between measured radar reflectivity and rain rate, which includes the effects of rain and cloud attenuation. When the radar sample is representative, PMM estimates the rainfall without bias. When the data are stratified for greater than average rates, the method no longer compensates for the higher attenuation and the radar rainfall estimates are biased low. The uncompensated attenuation is used to estimate the climatological attenuation coefficient. The two-way attenuation coefficient was found to be 0.0085 dB/km ( mm/h) exp -1.08 for the tropical rains and associated clouds in Darwin for the first two months of the year for horizontally polarized radiation at 5.63 GHz. This unusually large value is discussed. The risks of making real-time corrections for attenuation are also treated.

Description: Estimates of rain rate derived from a spaceborne weather radar will be most reliable over an intermediate range of values. In forming an area average of the rain rate, an alternative to the averaging of the high-resolution estimates, irrespective of their individual accuracies, is a multiple threshold approach. The method is based on the fact that the fractional area above a particular rain-rate threshold R(j) is related to the cumulative distribution of rain rates evaluated at R(j). Varying the threshold over the effective dynamic range of the radar yields the cumulative distribution function over this range. To obtain the distribution at all rain rates, a lognormal or gamma test function is selected such that the mean-square error between the test function and the measured values is minimized. Once the unknown parameters are determined, the first-order statistics of the areawide rain-rate distribution can be found. Tests of the method with data from the SPANDAR radar provide comparisons between it and the single threshold and the direct averaging approaches.

Description: Three satellite infrared techniques of increasing complexity for the estimation of rainfall are compared: (1) the GOES precipitation index (Arkin, 1979, 1983), (2) the Negri-Adler-Wetzel (Negri et al., 1984) technique, and (3) the convective-stratiform technique (CST), described by Adler and Negri (1988). It is shown that all three techniques performed poorly in estimating the rain maxima over southeastern Japan associated with shallow orographic warm rain systems. However, when the data set was limited to the ocean-only points, the CST method performed best, with the lowest bias, the lowest rms, and the highest correlation. Daily rainfall estimates had rms errors of almost 200 percent of the mean, and negative biases of about 50 percent of the mean.

Description: A method is described for estimating the mean monthly rainfall data for climate studies by combining the geosynchronous IR and low-orbit microwave data. The microwave technique uses the brightness temperature at 37 and 86 GHz from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager instrument on board the DMSP satellite to define raining areas over water and land, and the 86-GHz scattering signal to assign rain rate based on cloud model-microwave calculations. The IR estimates are initially computed separately, using hourly data from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite. Results show that, in areas where the microwave technique performs well, the combined microwave-IR monthly total estimates have better error statistics than either the microwave of the IR techniques individually.

Description: Three years of monthly rain rates over 5 deg x 5 deg latitude-longitude boxes have been calculated for oceanic regions 50 deg N-50 deg S from measurements taken by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellites using the technique developed by Wilheit et al. (1987, 1991). The annual and seasonal zonal-mean rain rates are larger than Jaeger's (1983) climatological estimates but are smaller than those estimated from the GOES precipitation index (GPI) for the same period. Regional comparison with the GPI showed that these rain rates are smaller in the north Indian Ocean and in the southern extratropics where the GPI is known to overestimate. The differences are also dominated by a jump at 170 deg W in the GPI rain rates across the mid-Pacific Ocean. This jump is attributed to the fusion of different satellite measurements in producing the GPI.

Description: The diurnal cycle in rainfall varies considerably from region to region in the tropics. Determining this variability is important both for comparing predictions of atmospheric models to real atmospheric behavior and for making sure that estimates of total rainfall from low-altitude satellites are not biased because of their infrequent observations of a given region of the earth. Although there are no data from the proposed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite to work with yet, we can ask how well the diurnal cycle in rainfall will be detected when the satellite is eventually collecting data, given the satellite's proposed sampling characteristics. Data analyses for the diurnal cycle are discussed, taking into account the fact that the satellite visits will be irregularly spaced in time. The amplitudes of the first few harmonics will be determined by least-squares fits to the satellite observations, and the tests needed to establish the statistical significance of the fitted amplitudes are discussed. The accuracy with which the first few harmonics of the diurnal cycle can be detected is estimated from several months of satellite data using rainfall statistics observed during the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE).

Description: Optimization of the threshold method, achieved by determination of the threshold that maximizes the correlation between an area-average rain-rate moment and the area coverage of rain rates exceeding the threshold, is demonstrated empirically and theoretically. Empirical results for a sequence of GATE radar snapshots show optimal thresholds of 5 and 27 mm/h for the first and second moments, respectively. Theoretical optimization of the threshold method by the maximum-likelihood approach of Kedem and Pavlopoulos (1991) predicts optimal thresholds near 5 and 26 mm/h for lognormally distributed rain rates with GATE-like parameters. The agreement between theory and observations suggests that the optimal threshold can be understood as arising due to sampling variations, from snapshot to snapshot, of a parent rain-rate distribution. Optimal thresholds for gamma and inverse Gaussian distributions are also derived and compared.

Description: The construction and general features of a new monthly oceanic precipitation data set compiled from Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) data gathered by TIROS-N satellites are described. Rainfall is estimated from the intensity of warming in MSU channel 1 (50.3 GHz) brightness temperatures above a 15-percent cumulative frequency distribution threshold after correction for airmass temperature. The average channel 1 warming above the threshold is calibrated into precipitation units with five to ten years of monthly accumulations from 132 raingages distributed around the globe. Comparisons between the satellite and raingage measurements of the average annual cycle in monthly precipitation are presented for 75 raingages from different climatic regions.

Description: The evolution of ozone (O3) observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite is described for 14 Aug through 20 Sep 1992, in relation to the polar vortex. The development of an ozone hole is observed in column O3, and a corresponding decrease is seen in O3 mixing ratio in the polar lower stratosphere, consistent with chemical destruction. The observations also suggest that poleward transport associated with episodes of strong planetary wave activity is important in increasing O3 in the mid-stratosphere.

Description: Early in December 1991, high values of ClO are seen by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite at latitudes south of areas of temperatures cold enough to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). A 3D simulation shows that the heterogeneous conversion of chlorine reservoirs to reactive chlorine on the surfaces of PSCs (processing) takes place at high latitudes. Often the processed air must be transported to lower latitudes, where the reactive chlorine is photochemically converted to ClO, to be observed by MLS. In this simulation, one incidence of cold temperatures is associated with an anticyclone, and a second with a cyclone. The transport of processed air associated with the anticyclone is marked by shearing; a decrease in the maximum of the processed air is accompanied by growth of the area influenced by the processing. In contrast, the air processed in the cyclonic event spreads more slowly. This shows that transport and shearing is a crucial element to the evolution of reactive chlorine associated with a processing event. In particular, transport and shearing, as well as photochemical processes, can cause variations in observed ClO.

Description: The Microwave Limb Sounder observed waves in stratospheric temperature and O3 during the 1992 southern winter. Wave 1 intensifies three times from mid August through mid September, when a 9 day eastward traveling wave becomes in phase with the stationary wave 1. During the periods of wave intensification, minor sudden warmings and increased zonal mean O3 are observed. The waves have a westward phase tilt which results in an intensified baroclinic zone when the waves are in phase. Waves in T and O3 are positively correlated near 5 - 10 hPa, implying transport by planetary waves; this is supported by larger O3 wave amplitudes than expected from photochemistry alone.

Description: The development of the stratospheric polar vortex during fall and early winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during 1991-1992, and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 1992 is examined using National Meteorological Center data. Compared to the NH, the polar vortex in the SH developed with less variability on short time scales, deepened more rapidly and continued to expand well into winter. Daily minimum temperatures in the lower stratosphere were lowest at equivalent seasonal dates in both hemispheres, but values below the condensation temperatures of polar stratospheric clouds occurred earlier, persisted much longer, and occupied a larger volume of air in the SH. These interhemispheric meteorological differences can account for some of the key features of the chlorine monoxide distributions observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite.

Description: HALOE observations of H2O and CH4 are compared with in situ techniques aboard the ER-2 aircraft during the northern winter of 1991/92, in particular for the dates 911208, 920108, 920217, 920222, and 920320 when the spatial coincidences are close, within +/- 1 deg latitude and +/- 12 deg longitude. The results reveal the limitations of comparing high resolution in situ aircraft data with a remote sounding limb scanner. Of the five comparison dates, three had HALOE/ER-2 coincidences which occurred near the edge of the Arctic vortex; the vertical variability in the HALOE results and the horizontal variability in the ER-2 observations on these days show that the vortex edge is not a region where exact agreement can be expected except by chance. On a 4th comparison date, there was substantial overlap away from the vortex edge, although for some species the aircraft data show considerable variability near the coincidence point. On the 5th comparison date, the ER-2 had no overlap in altitude with the lowest HALOE observations; however, a short linear interpolation over about 1 km altitude results in smooth composite profiles. Generally speaking the agreement between HALOE and the ER-2 at overlap altitudes is about 12 percent in the case of water vapor, which shows low horizontal and vertical variability. The agreement for methane, with limited data having altitude overlap, is better than 6 percent.

Description: UARS MLS measurements of ClO in the 1992 Southern Hemisphere winter are described. Lower stratospheric ClO abundances greater than 1 ppbv were observed in the vortex beginning 1 June. The enhanced ClO reached largest areal extent in mid-August, then retreated poleward. ClO abundances at 22 hPa decreased in early September while those at 46 hPa remained high. O3 decrease within the vortex was observed by mid-August, and was coincident with the enhanced ClO.

Description: A method to remotely sense marine stratus clouds, that are underneath the boundary layer inversion produced by strong subsidence, is developed with the help of the measurements made by the Infrared Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) on board the Nimbus 4 satellite. These measurements, which had a spectral resolution of 2.8/cm and a field view of about 100 km in the region 870-980/cm, allow one to compare the weak absorption due to water vapor lines with that of the weak nu3-nu1 band of CO2. From such a comparison it is possible to sense the presence of these boundary layer stratus clouds. Maps of these clouds over subsidence regions of the tropical and subtropical oceans deduced from IRIS data show the usefulness of the technique to climatological studies.

Description: Measurements of the thermal emission of the sky at three frequencies (20.7, 22.2, and 31.4 GHz) with the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Crustal Dynamics Project MW Water Vapor Radiometer are reported. These measurements are compared with brightness temperatures inferred from measurements from VAISALA radiosonde packages launched every 3 hr during the experiment period. An error analysis for the radiosonde-inferred brightness temperatures is performed under the assumption of reasonable random uncertainties for the pressure, temperature, and humidity measurements and propagation of these uncertainties through the analysis algorithm. For the assumed uncertainties, the dominant contribution to the total uncertainty comes from the temperature measurement (66-88 percent), whereas the relative humidity measurement contributes only 2-8 percent, except in the vicinity of the water vapor line, where the contribution is 10-20 percent.

Description: Spatial averaging errors which may occur when creating hemispherical reflectance maps for different cover types from direct nadir technique to estimate the hemispherical reflectance are assessed by comparing the results with those obtained with a knowledge-based system called VEG (Kimes et al., 1991, 1992). It was found that hemispherical reflectance errors provided by using VEG are much less than those using the direct nadir techniques, depending on conditions. Suggestions are made concerning sampling and averaging strategies for creating hemispherical reflectance maps for photosynthetic, carbon cycle, and climate change studies.

Description: A review of recent research on the climatic effects of aerosols is presented. A representative aerosol and climate models were used to study the generation, growth transport, and removal of aerosols. The structure of the radiative-convective models and general circulation models used is described. Large-scale temperature effects, effects on clouds, and local urban effects of trophospheric aerosols are examined. The effects of volcanic eruptions and stratospheric aerosols are also considered. Results indicate that solar radiation backscatter by aerosols increases the planetary albedo. Solar radiation absorption may offset cooling caused by aerosol backscatter but the absorption and emission of terrestrial radiation by aerosols produces a warming effect. It appears that the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei is probably the most significant cause of the radiative effects observed.

Description: Results are presented of a comparison beteen observations of the upper-tropospheric water vapor data obtained from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) instrument and radiosonde observations for 1987 and radiosonde-based climatologies. Colocated SAGE II-radiosonde measurement pairs are compared individually and in a zonal mean sense. A straight comparison of monthly zonal means between SAGE II and radiosondes for 1987 and Global Atmospheric Statistics (1963-1973) indicates that the clear-sky SAGE II climatology is approximately half the level of clear/cloudy sky of both radiosonde climatologies. Annual zonal means calculated from the set of profile pairs again showed SAGE II to be significantly drier in many altitude bands.

Description: The operational inversion algorithm used for the retrieval of the water-vapor vertical profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) occultation data is presented. Unlike the algorithm used for the retrieval of aerosol, O3, and NO2, the water-vapor retrieval algorithm accounts for the nonlinear relationship between the concentration versus the broad-band absorption characteristics of water vapor. Problems related to the accuracy of the computational scheme, the accuracy of the removal of other interfering species, and the expected uncertainty of the retrieved profile are examined. Results are presented on the error analysis of the SAGE II water vapor retrieval, indicating that the SAGE II instrument produced good quality water vapor data.

Description: Radiative flux anomalies derived from the NASA spaceborne Earth Radiation Budget Experiment were used to determine the volcanic radiative forcing that followed the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. They are the first unambiguous, direct measurements of large-scale volcanic forcing. The volcanic aerosols caused a strong cooling effect immediately; the amount of cooling increased through September 1991 as shortwave forcing increased relative to the longwave forcing. The primary effects of the aerosols were a direct increase in albedo over mostly clear areas and both direct and indirect increases in the albedo of cloudy areas.

Description: A model-based approach to estimating near-surface wind fields over the ocean from Seasat scatterometer (SASS) measurements is presented. The approach is a direct assimilation technique in which wind field model parameters are estimated directly from the scatterometer measurements of the radar backscatter of the ocean's surface using maximum likelihood principles. The wind field estimate is then computed from the estimated model parameters. The wind field model used in this approach is based on geostrophic approximation and on simplistic assumptions about the wind field vorticity and divergence but includes ageostrophic winds. Nine days of SASS data were processed to obtain unique wind estimates. Comparisons in performance to the traditional two-step (point-wise wind retrieval followed by ambiguity removal) wind estimate method and the model-based method are provided using both simulated radar backscatter measurements and actual SASS measurements. In the latter case the results are compared to wind fields determined using subjective ambiguity removal. While the traditional approach results in missing measurements and reduced effective swath width due to fore/aft beam cell coregistration problems, the model-based approach uses all available measurements to increase the effective swath width and to reduce data gaps. The results reveal that the model-based wind estimates have accuracy comparable to traditionally estimated winds with less 'noise' in the directional estimates, particularly at low wind speeds.

Description: Ten years of stratospheric geopotential height data are analyzed in an attempt to determine whether there are preferred flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. The data are taken from Stratospheric Sounding Units on board NOAA satellites. The probability density estimate of the amplitude of the wavenumber 1 10-mb height is found to be bimodal. The density distribution is composed of a dominant large-amplitude mode and a less frequent low-amplitude mode. When the wavenumber 1 10-mb height data are projected onto the phase plane defined by the 10-mb zonal-mean winds and wavenumber 1 100-mb heights, three preferred regimes are evident. The small-amplitude mode separates into a strong zonal wind-weak wave regime and a weak zonal wind-weak wave regime. The large-amplitude mode is an intermediate zonal wind-strong wave regime. Transitions between the large-amplitude regime and the weak zonal wind-weak wave regime are found to be associated with major stratospheric warmings. The clustering of the stratospheric data into the preferred flow regimes is interpreted in light of the bifurcation properties of the Holton and Mass model. The interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere is interpreted in terms of the relative frequency of the observed preferred regimes.

Description: The effects of the break-up of the Antarctic vortex on the water vapor distribution are studied using MLS measurements of water vapor made during September 1991 and November 1991. In early November at 22 hPa a moist area is found within the polar vortex, consistent with an observed descent of order 10 km and strong radiative cooling. As the vortex erodes (beginning of November 1991), parcels of moist air become detached from the edge of the vortex and mix rapidly (within 2-3 days) with drier mid-latitude air. When the vortex breaks up (mid-November), larger parcels of moist air from both the edge and the inner vortex migrate to mid-latitudes. These parcels have a longer lifetime than those produced by vortex erosion, probably because they are correlated with higher potential vorticity gradients. The break-up of the vortex is accompanied by a mean adiabatic equatorward transport resulting in a significant increase in midstratospheric water vapor values at mid-latitudes in late spring.

Description: HALOE observations of water vapor and methane during the period 21 September - 15 October 1992 are used to examine the role of Antarctic drying in the lower stratosphere. Zonal mean cross-sections of 2 CH4 + H2O show the probability of transport of Antarctic type dryness to latitudes as distant as 20 deg N, with major water vapor deficits evident between 10 and 100 mb to 10 deg S. Examination of monthly mean tropical 100 mb temperatures and of Antarctic temperatures suggests that the observations are consistent with stratospheric dryness being achieved by the combined effects of tropopause freeze-drying over the Micronesia region during northern winter and drying through the influence of the very low temperatures over Antarctica during southern winter. This paper presents these intriguing new results, and offers a possible explanation.

Description: A one-dimensional time marching radiative transfer model has been used to investigate the potential effects of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) on winter and spring temperatures in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. High, middle, and low PSC amounts were specified from lidar backscatter profiles and were chosen to represent the likely range of PSC amounts present in the Antarctic region. The computed effects of the PSCs on temperatures depend strongly on the surface temperature and on the extent of tropospheric cloudiness, and range from a maximum increase of 6 K for a high amount of PSCs over a warm surface and clear troposphere to a maximum decrease of 2 K for a high amount of PSCs over a cold surface and a troposphere with high clouds. The average effect is unlikely to be more than a 1 or 2 K temperature change.

Description: This paper presents a reexamination of the earth radiation budget parameterization of energy balance climate models in light of data collected over the last 12 years. The study consists of three parts: (1) an examination of the infrared terrestrial radiation to space and its relationship to the surface temperature field on time scales from 1 month to 10 years; (2) an examination of the albedo of the earth with special attention to the seasonal cycle of snow and clouds; (3) solutions for the seasonal cycle using the new parameterizations with special attention to changes in sensitivity. While the infrared parameterization is not dramatically different from that used in the past, the albedo in the new data suggest that a stronger latitude dependence be employed. After retuning the diffusion coefficient the simulation results for the present climate generally show only a slight dependence on the new parameters. Also, the sensitivity parameter for the model is still about the same (1.25 C for a 1 percent increase of solar constant) for the linear models and for the nonlinear models that include a seasonal snow line albedo feedback (1.34 C). One interesting feature is that a clear-sky planet with a snow line albedo feedback has a significantly higher sensitivity (2.57 C) due to the absence of smoothing normally occurring in the presence of average cloud cover.

Description: A comparison is made of the stratospheric water vapor measurements made by the satellite sensors of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II), the Nimbus-7 LIMS, and the Spacelab 3 Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment. It was found that, despite differences in the measurement techniques, sampling bias, and observational periods, the three experiments have disclosed a generally consistent pattern of stratospheric water vapor distribution. The only significant difference occurs at high southern altitudes in May below 18 km, where LIMS measurements were 2-3 ppmv greater than those of SAGE II and ATMOS.

Description: Results are presented of water vapor observations in the troposphere and stratosphere performed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II solar occultation instrument, and the analysis procedure, the instrument errors, and data characteristics are discussed. The results are compared with correlative in situ measurements and other satellite data. The features of the data set collected between 1985 and 1989 include an increase in middle- and upper-tropospheric water vapor during northern hemisphere summer and autumn; minimum water vapor values of 2.5-3 ppmv in the tropical lower stratosphere; slowly increasing water vapor values with altitude in the stratosphere, reaching 5-6 ppmv or greater near the stratopause; extratropical values with minimum profile amounts occurring above the conventionally defined tropopause; and higher extratropical than tropical water vapor values throughout the stratosphere except in locations of possible polar stratospheric clouds.

Description: Three techniques for the estimate of rain rate from infrared satellite images have been examined and modified to be used over the western Mediterranean Sea. An attempt to optimize these techniques has been made by comparing the remotely-sensed precipitation with in situ data, obtained from the rain gauge network over Sardinia, for three different seasons of 1988. The results obtained so far clearly reveal the limitations of infrared remote sensing techniques when applied to precipitation retrievals. However, these results give the possibility of gaining some useful insights on the general problem and show that infrared remote sensing techniques can give acceptable area-time averages of precipitation which are useful for climatological studies.

Description: An isentropic trajectory model is used to simulate the evolution of the southern hemisphere SO2 cloud associated with the eruption of Cerro Hudson. By matching the parcel trajectories with total ozone mapping spectrometer SO2 retrievals, the principal stratospheric injection region is determined to be between 11 and 16 km in altitude. This region is characterized by weak wind shears and is located just poleward of the subtropical jet in the outer fringe of the stratospheric polar vortex. The lack of wind shear in the injection region explains the slow zonal dispersal of the SO2 cloud which was still clearly observed 19 days after the eruption. The trajectory model simulation of the SO2 cloud shows good agreement with observations for 7 days after the eruption. Using the potential vorticity and potential temperature estimates of the initial eruption cloud, the cloud position relative to the polar night jet is shown to be nearly fixed up to September 2, 1991, which was as long as the cloud was observed. This result suggests that the lower stratospheric polar and midlatitude regions are nearly isolated from each other during the late August period.

Description: The paper examines how well an Eddington approximation can reproduce brightness temperatures obtained from a more complete, N-stream discrete ordinate solution in the microwave regime. Radiation propagation through a plane parallel medium is considered. Although model discrepancies are complicated functions of the cloud constituents, the differences between an eight-stream discrete ordinate solution and an analytical Eddington solution were found to be generally small, ranging from 0 to 6 K when only one uniform layer of hydrometeors was considered. When realistic multilayered cloud hydrometeor profiles were used, the differences between these two models never exceeded 3 K over the entire range of microwave frequencies considered (6.6-183 GHz). The models agreed to within 0.2 K in the absence of scattering constituents.

Description: Simultaneous measurements from the ground of the spectral optical thickness and the atmospheric path radiance from over 30 sites located in many parts of the world and affected by several different aerosol types are reported. These measurements are used to derive the relationship between the optical thickness and the path radiance for a single viewing and illumination geometry and to discuss its implications on remote sensing observations. It is shown that simple measurements performed from the ground can yield empirical relationships that can be used to check some of the common but not validated assumptions about the particle homogeneity, sphericity, composition, and size distribution used in remote sensing models and in estimates of the radiative effects of aerosol. The results are used to test concepts of atmospheric corrections and remote sensing of aerosol from space.

Description: A version of the dynamical adjustment procedure is generalized in order to make the procedure applicable to a diabatic model. In this new initialization procedure, backward adiabatic model integration is followed by forward diabatic model integration, with a high-frequency (low-pass) time filter in the form of the Euler backward time-differencing scheme applied throughout the integration. The new procedure was applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres 4D data-assimilation system. It was found that, right from the beginning of the forecast integration, the forecast tendencies (and fields) were free of any noise due to imbalance in initial conditions, and the shocks related to an initial imbalance between model physics and dynamics, or the initial spinup effect, were practically removed.

Description: The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

Description: The Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) system was primarily designed to address the operational needs of pilots in the avoidance of low-altitude wind shears upon takeoff and landing at airports. One of the primary methods of wind-shear detection for the TDWR system is the gust-front detection algorithm. The algorithm is designed to detect gust fronts that produce a wind-shear hazard and/or sustained wind shifts. It serves the hazard warning function by providing an estimate of the wind-speed gain for aircraft penetrating the gust front. The gust-front detection and wind-shift algorithms together serve a planning function by providing forecasted gust-front locations and estimates of the horizontal wind vector behind the front, respectively. This information is used by air traffic managers to determine arrival and departure runway configurations and aircraft movements to minimize the impact of wind shifts on airport capacity. This paper describes the gust-front detection and wind-shift algorithms to be fielded in the initial TDWR systems. Results of a quantitative performance evaluation using Doppler radar data collected during TDWR operational demonstrations at the Denver, Kansas City, and Orlando airports are presented. The algorithms were found to be operationally useful by the FAA airport controllers and supervisors.

Description: Stratospheric meteorological conditions during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition II (AASE II) presented excellent observational opportunities from Bangor, Maine, because the polar vortex was located over southeastern Canada for significant periods during the 1991-1992 winter. Temperature analyses showed that nitric acid trihydrates (NAT temperatures below 195 K) should have formed over small regions in early December. The temperatures in the polar vortex warmed beyond NAT temperatures by late January (earlier than normal). Perturbed chemistry was found to be associated with these cold temperatures.

Description: An improved method for transforming radar-observed reflectivities Ze into rain rate R is presented. The method is based on a formulation of a Ze-R function constrained such that (1) the radar-retrieved pdf of R and all of its moments are identical to those determined from the gauges over a sufficiently large domain, and (2) the fraction of the time that it is raining above a low but still has an accurately measurable rain intensity is identical for both the radar and for simultaneous measurements of collocated gauges on average. Data measured by a 1.65-deg beamwidth C-band radar and 22 gauges located in the vicinity of Darwin, Australia, are used. The resultant Ze-R functions show a strong range dependence, especially for the rain regimes characterized by strong reflectivity gradients and substantial attenuation. The application of these novel Ze-R functions to the radar data produces excellent matches to the gauge measurements without any systematic bias.

Description: Rainfall characteristics using data from dense recording raingage networks is reviewed. Data from such networks have quantified temporal and spatial rainfall distributions, and have supplied specialized information about local and orographic effects. The natural variability, temporally and spatially, for annual, seasonal, monthly, and individual events is treated. Especially important are the spatial variations of precipitation as a function of synoptic type, precipitation type, amount, and duration. Results from dense raingage networks in Illinois, and some data from other climatic regions is also treated.

Description: A 10 channel scanning radiometer, built as a prototype for the coastal zone color scanner on the Nimbus 7 satellite, was flown on a high altitude aircraft during a Gymnodium breve bloom along the west coast of Florida. The remotely measured ocean color imagery shows what is probably the patchy structure of a G. breve bloom extending over a 60 km by 100 km area. This conclusion is based on visual inspection of bathymetry to infer bottom reflection trends and on a single growth truth measurement of B G. breve obtained the previous day. The image shows coherent blooms which extend scales up to 60 km in length.

Description: A large scale numerical time-dependent model of sea ice that takes into account the heat fluxes in and out of the ice, the seasonal occurrence of snow, and ice motions was used in an experiment to determine the response of the Arctic Ocean ice pack to a warming of the atmosphere. The degree of warming specified is that expected for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide with its associated greenhouse effect, a condition that could occur before the middle of the next century. The results of three 5-year simulations with a warmer atmosphere and varied boundary conditions were: (1) that in the face of a 5 K surface atmospheric temperature increase the ice pack disappeared completely in August and September but reformed in the central Arctic Ocean in mid fall; (2) that the simulations were moderately dependence on assumptions concerning cloud cover; and (3) that even when atmospheric temperature increases of 6-9 K were combined with an order-of-magnitude increase in the upward heat flux from the ocean, the ice still appeared in winter. It should be noted that a year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean has apparently not existed for a million years or more.

Description: During the summer of 1977, fire totaled 44 sq km of tundra vegetation according to measurements using LANDSAT imagery. Based on the experience gained from analysis of this fire using ground observations, satellite imagery, and topographic maps, it appears that natural drainages form effective fire breaks on the subdued relief of the Arctic coastal plain and northern foothills. It is confirmed that the intensity of the fire is related to vegetation type and to the moisture content of the organic rich soils.

Description: Presumably caused by lightning, a large fire occurred due east of Point Lay several kilometers southwest of the Kokolik River, the farthest north a fire was ever fought by Bureau of Land Management personnel in Alaska. The progress and area extent of the fire were determined by analysis of LANDSAT MSS band 5 and 7 imagery. Low altitude observations from helicopter showed the fire burned a range of vegetation and relief types which included low polygonized and upland tussock tundras. The burned area appeared wetter on the surface than the unburned area, due to a lack of moisture absorbing organic matter and the possible release of moisture from the deeper thawed zone. Suggestions for future investigations of the effects of fire on tundra and permafrost terrains are discussed.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: A block diagram of the joint airport weather studies program is presented. Background leading to the development of the program is reviewed. Basic studies, aircraft performance, and detection and warning techniques used to develop fine scale structure of thunderstorm dynamics and kinematics in the vicinity of a major airport; effect of thunderstorm low level wind shear on aircraft performance; and development of real time testing of flow level wind shear detection and warning techniques and displays are described.

Description: The prototype regional observation and forecast system (PROFS) outputs are demonstrated, functional design specifications to be used to procure and implement operational systems are outlined. Advanced candidate technologies are evaluated as an integral part of the process that leads to these outputs. Evaluation insures that future weather service systems will contain the optimum mix of technologies to be most cost effective in reducing the annual losses and deaths that are directly attributed to severe weather.

Description: The icing environment at altitudes below 10,000 feet were studied. The following questions are asked, are: (1) existing aircraft certification criteria applicable; (2) too stringent on icing for helos; (3) based on accurate data; (4) appropriate for low (10,000 ft) altitudes? The research plan is outlined: review historical icing data, obtain new measurements, collect modern icing data from other groups, and recommend LWC, OAT, and MVD criteria for helicopters. Estimated accuracies and known sources of error are included. It is concluded that the net effect of possible sources of error of both signs is uncertain.

Description: A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Description: The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Description: A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Description: The Andre et al. (1976, 1978) third-order closure model, in which the time rate of change terms, the relaxation and rapid effects for pressure-related terms, and the clipping approximation are used along with the quasi-normal closure, is invoked in the study of turbulence in a cloudy layer that is radiatively cooled from above. A spurious oscillation whose greatest amplitude lies near the inversion is shown by analysis to arise from the mean gradient and buoyancy terms of the triple-moment equations. An attempt is made to damp the oscillation through the introduction of diffusion terms into the triple-moment equations. The results obtained are noted to be sensitive to the ad hoc eddy coefficient applied in the third-moment equations.

Description: Space-time mapping of VHF sources from four severe storms on June 19, 1980 reveals that lightning processes for cloud-to-ground (CG) and large intracloud (IC) flashes are confined to an altitude below about 10 km and closely associated with the central regions of high reflectivity. Another class of IC flashes produces a splattering of sources within the storms' main electrically active volumes and also within the large divergent wind canopy aloft. There is no apparent temporal association between the small high altitude IC flashes that occur almost continuously and the large IC and CG flashes that occur sporadically in the lower portions of storms.

Description: A variational principle for time dependent diffusion problems is presented and is demonstrated by applying it to simple seasonal climate models. Two cases are treated. The first, a North-Coakley-type model with constant properties, is used as a tutorial example for the application of the technique. For the second case, heat capacity and thermal conductivity are considered to be latitude dependent in order to treat the effects of land/ocean distribution on the seasonal temperature distribution over the earth. The variational equations are derived and approximate analytical solutions are developed which delineate the influences of the physical asymmetries of the hemispheres in producing an asymmetric annual cycle.

Description: Lorenz (1969) has considered the possibility that an atmospheric circulation pattern might recur, taking into account the definition of a pair of analogous flows or 'analogs'. The present investigation is concerned with a search of time series of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential heights for possible analogs. Attention is given to data and analysis procedure, analog quality, and error growth rates. The obtained results imply that the found analogs are not a useful tool for forecasting the evolution of the midlatitude flow on time scales of several days. It is pointed out, however, that the negative results should not be extended to other applications of analog forecasting.

Description: Simple climate models which invoke diffusive heat transport and ice cap albedo feedback have equilibrium solutions with no stable ice cap smaller than a radius of about 20 deg on a great circle. Attention is presently given to a solution of this phenomenon which is physically appealing. The ice-free solution has a thermal minimum, and if the minimum temperature is just above the critical value for ice formation, then the artificial addition of a patch of ice leads to a widespread depression of the temperature below the critical freezing temperature. A second stable solution will then exist whose spatial extent is determined by the range of the influence function of a point sink of heat, due to the albedo shift in the patch.

Description: A comment is presented on a recent paper by Pagnotti and Bosart (1984) which contrasted different forcing mechanisms for weak and strong cyclones along the east coast of the U.S., and Bosart replies. The comment argues that the paper did not give a clear definition of 'weak' upper-level forcing and did not provide sufficient evidence to support its claim that the return branch of transverse circulations may be coupled to the middle as opposed to the lower troposphere.

Description: A fully nonlinear numerical model of the point jet barotropic instability is used to test and confirm the hypothesis that the magnitude of the wave vorticity does not exceed the magnitude of the initial shear. This result arises directly from the local conservation of vorticity following a parcel and the fact that unstable waves are principally confined to the region where the zonal mean vorticity can be smoothed by the wave so as to eliminate the instability. Comparisons are made between fully nonlinear and quasi-linear models of the point jet instability and their tracer transport properties. Differences become particularly evident after wave saturation. The most important effect neglected by the wave-mean flow model appears to be the advection of wave vorticity by the most unstable mode. However, as equilibration of the instability proceeds, the globally averaged properties of both models are found to be similar.

Description: We calculate the seasonal changes that are largely associated with the half-yearly wave, autocorrelation functions, and the mean planetary waves in the monthly mean sea level pressure from two data sources. One covers the period from 1951 to 1958 (from the South African Weather Bureau) and the other the period from 1972 to 1980 (from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Thirty years of data from stations over the southern hemisphere are used to assess the reliability of the differences between the two periods that the grid-point data show. These differences are especially large over the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The station data confirm the changes between the two periods and thus the observed differences in the mean waves, which are especially large for wave number 3.

Description: The cloud observation archive from the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is analyzed in order to derive the probability of cloud encounter at altitudes normally flown by commercial airliners, for application to a determination of the feasability of Laminar Flow Control (LFC) on long-range routes. The probability of cloud encounter is found to vary significantly with season. Several meteorological circulation features are apparent in the latitudinal distribution of cloud cover. The cloud encounter data are shown to be consistent with the classical midlatitude cyclone model with more clouds encountered in highs than in lows. Aircraft measurements of route-averaged time-in-clouds fit a gamma probability distribution model which is applied to estimate the probability of extended cloud encounter, and the associated loss of LFC effectiveness along seven high-density routes. The probability is demonstrated to be low.

Description: Attention is given to physical principles that affect the determination of atmospheric temperature profiles from observations of outgoing IR and microwave radiation. Simultaneous analysis of IR and microwave observations enhances observations in each spectral region. While IR soundings have higher sensitivity to lower tropospheric temperatures, ground temperatures, and sea surface temperatures, microwave observations are not only more suited to stratospheric sounding but are sensitive to snow and ice cover. They significantly aid correction of IR observations for cloud effects. Because effective cloud parameters and snow and ice cover can be inferred from the observations, 'temperature sounders' also yield data for a number of important climatic parameters.

Description: The influence of soil moisture on the persistence of an ongoing drought was investigated. The case study of drought of the summer of 1980 was selected. The difference in the simulation of two identical twin runs: one with the climatological normal soil moisture and the other with anomalous soil moisture for drought conditions, were examined on the mean monthly circulation. It is found that a reduction in soil moisture did produce a corresponding reduction in precipitation. The pattern of the rainfall anomaly however, was not identical to the soil moisture (evapotranspiration) anomaly but had a good resemblance with observations.