Publication Date:
2022-05-26
Description:
© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 4 (2017): 41, doi:10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5.
Description:
During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia’s role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Description:
Support for most of the US authors and contributors of this paper as well as the multiannual support for the office of the NEESPI Project Scientist was provided by the NASA Land Cover and Land Use Change (LCLUC) Program, in particular, by grants NNX13AC66G, NNX11AB77G, NNX13AN58G, NNX15AD10G, NAG5–11084, 08–LCLUC08–2–0003, NNX14AD88G, NNX08AW51G, NNX12AD34G, NNX14AD91G, and NNX15AP81G. The research carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, was also supported by the NASA LCLUC Program. Support of NASA grants 08–TE08–029 and NNH09ZDA001N–IDS for AS and NT are acknowledged. Research of MS is supported by Newton-al-Farabi Fund (grant 172722855). Grant 14.B25.31.0026 of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation provided support to PG, SG, NT, AS, OB, BP, and IP for their work conducted at the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology. The Project “ARCTIC-ERA: ARCTIC climate change and its impact on Environment, infrastructures, and Resource Availability” sponsored by: ANR (France), RFBR (Russia), and the US NSF (grants 1717770 and 1558389) in response to Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Action on Arctic Observing and Research for Sustainability provided support for OZ, SG, BP, PG, and NS. A part of the paper is based on the research carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 15–06–08163 “Assessment and forecast of the socioeconomic and environmental implications of the climate change in the Arctic region”). Support for AP is provided by the Russian Government Program of Competitive Growth of Kazan Federal University (OpenLab Initiative). Support for JA is provided by grant NPUILO1417 of the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of Czechia.
Keywords:
Environmental changes
;
Northern Eurasia
;
Ecosystems dynamics
;
Terrestrial water cycle
;
Cryosphere retreat
;
Extreme and inclement environmental conditions
;
Sustainable development
;
Land cover and land use change
;
Integrated assessment models for decision-makers
Repository Name:
Woods Hole Open Access Server
Type:
Article
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