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  • 1
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-05-07
    Description: Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to the present. Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward–equatorward migrations over centennial–millennial time scales. Hadley circulation (HC) is often both implicitly and explicitly invoked to provide dynamical linkages to these shifts, although no direct analysis of concurrent changes in the recent period has been presented. Here, the observational TC record (1981–2016) and ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 are studied to examine potential relationships between the two. A zonally asymmetric HC is defined by employing Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition, and this permits the derivation of novel HC diagnostics local to TC basins.Coherent variations in both long-term linear trends and detrended interannual variability are found. TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity latitudes share trend sign and magnitude with shifts in local HC extent, with rates being approximately 0.25° ± 0.1° lat decade−1. Both these life cycle stages in hemispheric means and all Pacific TC basins, as well as poleward-extreme North Atlantic lysis latitudes, shared approximately 35% of their interannual variability with HC extent. Local HC intensity is linked only to eastern North Pacific TC latitudes, where strong local overturning corresponds to equatorward TC shifts. Examination of potential dynamical linkages implicates La Niña–like sea surface temperature gradients to poleward HC termini. This corresponds to increased tropical and reduced subtropical vertical wind shear everywhere except in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, where the opposite is true. These results quantify a long-hypothesized link between TCs and the large-scale oceanic–atmospheric state.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-03-23
    Description: The authors suggest a three-parameter bounded distribution from the family of mixed gamma distributions for characterizing the probability density distributions of fractional total and low cloud cover over the global oceans. The authors derive both the continuous form of this distribution and its discrete counterpart, which can be directly applied to cloud cover reports. The distribution is applied to the cloud cover characteristics reported by voluntary observing ships (VOS) for the period from 1950 to 2011 after filtering nighttime observations with poor lunar illumination. The suggested distribution demonstrates a high goodness of fit to the data and good skill in capturing probability distributions with different shapes. The authors present seasonal climatologies of the parameters of the derived distribution for the chosen 60-yr period and demonstrate that applying the PDF-based concept to the analysis of cloud cover allows identification of areas where similar mean cloud amounts can be produced by probability distributions with very different shapes. The roles of the different parameters of the distribution in producing the observed cloud conditions in different regions of the World Ocean are discussed. The application of the derived probability distribution allows for accurate estimation of the percentiles of the distribution, which represent the probabilities of specific cloud conditions. These probabilities are presented for both total and low cloud cover, as well as for daytime and nighttime. The authors also discuss the applicability of the suggested distribution for the validation of different cloud cover data products over the globe and the prospects of additional applications.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-12-16
    Description: This paper quantifies the impacts of approximations and assumptions in the parameterization of bulk formulas on the exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater computed between the ocean and atmosphere. An ensemble of sensitivity experiments is examined. Climatologies of wind stress, turbulent heat flux, and evaporation for the period 1982–2014 are computed using SST and surface meteorological state variables from ERA-Interim. Each experiment differs from the defined control experiment in only one aspect of the parameterization of the bulk formulas. The wind stress is most sensitive to the closure used to relate the neutral drag coefficient to the wind speed in the bulk algorithm, which mainly involves the value of the Charnock parameter. The disagreement between the state-of-the-art algorithms examined is typically on the order of 10%. The largest uncertainties in turbulent heat flux and evaporation are also related to the choice of the algorithm (typically 15%) but also emerge in experiments examining approximations related to the surface temperature and saturation humidity. Thus, approximations for the skin temperature and the salt-related reduction of saturation humidity have a substantial impact on the heat flux and evaporation (typically 10%). Approximations such as the use of a fixed air density, sea level pressure, or simplified formula for the saturation humidity lead to errors no larger than 4% when tested individually. The impacts of these approximations combine linearly when implemented together, yielding errors up to 20% over mid- and subpolar latitudes.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-05-01
    Description: The scope of this work is stochastic emulation of sea level pressure (SLP) for use in error estimation and statistical prediction studies. The input SLP dataset whose statistics are to be emulated was taken from the 1979–2013 ERA-Interim dataset at full 6-hourly temporal and 0.75° spatial resolutions over the Northern Hemisphere. Upon subtracting the monthly climatological mean value and mean diurnal cycle, the SLP anomalies (SLPA) were projected onto the subspace of 1000 leading empirical orthogonal functions of the daily-mean SLPA, which account for the vast majority (〉99%) of the full 6-hourly fields’ variance for each season. The main step of this method is the estimation of a linear autoregressive moving-average empirical model for the daily SLPA principal components (PCs) via regularized multiple linear regression; this model was driven, at the stage of simulation, by state-dependent (multiplicative) noise. Last, a diagnostic statistical scheme has been developed and implemented for accurate interpolation of simulated daily SLPA to 6-hourly temporal resolution. Upon transforming the simulated 6-hourly SLPA PCs into the physical space and adding a seasonal climatological mean and mean diurnal cycle, the resulting SLP variability was compared with the actual variability in the ERA-Interim dataset. It is shown that this empirical model produces independent realizations of SLP variability that are nearly indistinguishable from the observed variability over a wide range of statistical measures; these measures include, among others, spatial patterns of bandpass- and low-pass-filtered variability, as well as diverse characteristics of midlatitude cyclone tracks.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2016-12-21
    Description: The major sources of atmospheric moisture over the Red Sea are analyzed using ERA-Interim for the 1979–2013 period. The vertical structure of moisture transports across the coastlines has been computed separately for the western and eastern coasts of the Red Sea. The vertical structure of the moisture transport from the Red Sea to the continents is dominated by a breeze-like circulation in the near-surface layer and the Arabian high above 850 hPa. The lower-layer, breeze-like circulation is acting to export the moisture to the northwest of Africa and to the Arabian Peninsula and contributes about 80% of the moisture exports from the Red Sea, dominating over the transport in the upper layer, where the moisture is advected to the Arabian Peninsula in the northern part of the sea and to the African continent in the southern part. Integrated moisture divergence over the Red Sea decreased from the early 1980s to 1997 and then increased until the 2010s. Associated changes in the moisture export were provided primarily by the increasing intensity of the breeze-associated transports. The transports above the boundary layer, while being strong across the western and the eastern coasts, have a smaller effect on the net moisture export. The interannual variability of the moisture export in the near-surface layer was found to be closely correlated with the variability in sea surface temperature, especially in summer. Implications of the observed changes in the moisture advection for the hydrological cycle of the Middle East are discussed.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-08-03
    Description: Arctic sea ice decline is expected to continue throughout the twenty-first century as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we investigate the impact of a strong Arctic sea ice decline on the atmospheric circulation and low pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere through numerical experimentation with a coupled climate model. More specifically, a large ensemble of 1-yr-long integrations, initialized on 1 June with Arctic sea ice thickness artificially reduced by 80%, is compared to corresponding unperturbed control experiments. The sensitivity experiment shows an ice-free Arctic from July to October; during autumn the largest near-surface temperature increase of about 15 K is found in the central Arctic, which goes along with a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a decreased jet stream, and a southward shifted Northern Hemisphere storm track; and the near-surface temperature response in winter and spring reduces substantially due to relatively fast sea ice growth during the freezing season. Changes in the maximum Eady growth rate are generally below 5% and hardly significant, with reduced vertical wind shear and reduced vertical stability counteracting each other. The reduced vertical wind shear manifests itself in a decrease of synoptic activity by up to 10% and shallower cyclones while the reduced vertical stability along with stronger diabatic heating due to more available moisture may be responsible for the stronger deepening rates and thus faster cyclone development once a cyclone starts to form. Furthermore, precipitation minus evaporation decreases over the Arctic because the increase in evaporation outweighs that for precipitation, with implications for the ocean stratification and hence ocean circulation.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2016-06-28
    Description: The atmospheric water cycle of the Arctic is evaluated via seven global reanalyses and in radiosonde observations covering the 1979–2013 period. In the regional moisture budget, evaporation and precipitation are the least consistent terms among different datasets. Despite the assimilation of radiosoundings, the reanalyses present a tendency to overestimate the moisture transport. Aside from this overestimation, the reanalyses exhibit a remarkable agreement with the radiosondes in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. The northern North Atlantic, subpolar North Pacific, and Labrador Sea stand out as the main gateways for moisture to the Arctic in all reanalyses. Because these regions correspond to the end of the storm tracks, the link between moisture transports and extratropical cyclones is further investigated by decomposing the moisture fluxes in the mean flow and transient eddy parts. In all reanalyses, the former term tends to cancel out when averaged over a latitude circle, leaving the latter to provide the bulk of the midlatitude moisture imports (89%–94% at 70°N). Although the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world, the impact of these changes on its water cycle remains ambiguous. In most datasets, evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water increase in line with what is expected from a warming signal. At the same time, the moisture transports have decreased in all the reanalyses but not in the radiosonde observations, though none of these trends is statistically significant. The fluxes do not scale with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation because the increasing humidity is not correlated with the meridional wind, particularly near the surface.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2018-10-24
    Description: Atmospheric mechanisms leading to the formation of very strong turbulent air–sea heat fluxes in the North Atlantic are analyzed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the winter periods from 1979 to 2010. Surface turbulent flux extremes were quantified by considering both absolute and relative extremeness of these fluxes. For all cases of very strong surface turbulent fluxes, regional composites of the associated atmospheric conditions were built using reanalysis output. These composites clearly demonstrate a critical role of the cyclone–anticyclone interaction zone in forming very strong surface fluxes. The implied importance of cyclones followed by anticyclones in generation of surface air–sea heat flux extremes was demonstrated by the analysis of case studies. We further used the results of numerical cyclone tracking to identify extratropical cyclones associated with air–sea flux events of different intensities and to quantify the life cycle characteristics of these cyclones. Analysis of frequency distribution of surface heat fluxes has shown that extreme fluxes over the North Atlantic are associated with less than 30% of winter cyclones and that this association occurs mostly during the initial stage of their life cycle. Analysis of life cycle characteristics of these cyclones shows, in turn, that they are considerably more intense than most North Atlantic cyclones and are characterized by rapid deepening and slower propagation. We argue that variability of the North American high is a key factor controlling atmospheric conditions favorable for the occurrence of high turbulent air–sea heat fluxes in the North Atlantic mid- and subpolar latitudes.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-08-08
    Print ISSN: 0006-8314
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1472
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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