ALBERT

Description: Much of NASA's Arctic Research is run through its Cryospheric Sciences Program. Arctic research efforts to date have focused primarily on investigations of the mass balance of the largest Arctic land-ice masses and the mechanisms that control it, interactions among sea ice, polar oceans, and the polar atmosphere, atmospheric processes in the polar regions, energy exchanges in the Arctic. All of these efforts have been focused on characterizing, understanding, and predicting, changes in the Arctic. NASA's unique vantage from space provides an important perspective for the study of these large scale processes, while detailed process information is obtained through targeted in situ field and airborne campaigns and models. An overview of NASA investigations in the Arctic will be presented demonstrating how the synthesis of space-based technology, and these complementary components have advanced our understanding of physical processes in the Arctic.

Description: The conversion of cloud ice to snow by depositional growth, designated P(sub SFI), in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model cloud physics parameterization is examined. The original formulation of P(sub SFI) is shown to produce excessive conversion of cloud ice to snow because of an implicit assumption that the relative humidity is 100% with respect to water even though the air may actually be quite less humid. Two possible corrections to this problem are proposed, the first involving application of a relative humidity dependent correction factor to the original formulation of P(sub SFI), and the second involving a new formulation of P(sub SFI) based on the equation for depositional growth of cloud ice.

Description: This project, supported by the NASA New Investigator Program, has primarily been funding a graduate student, Darren McKague. Since August 1999 Darren has been working part time at Raytheon, while continuing his PhD research. Darren is planning to finish his thesis work in May 2001, thus some of the work described here is ongoing. The proposed research was to use GOES visible and infrared imager data and SSM/I microwave data to obtain joint distributions of cirrus cloud ice mass and precipitation for a study region in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. These joint distributions of cirrus cloud and rainfall were to be compared to those from the CSU general circulation model to evaluate the cloud microphysical amd cumulus parameterizations in the GCM. Existing algorithms were to be used for the retrieval of cloud ice water path from GOES (Minnis) and rainfall from SSM/I (Wilheit). A theoretical study using radiative transfer models and realistic variations in cloud and precipitation profiles was to be used to estimate the retrieval errors. Due to the unavailability of the GOES satellite cloud retrieval algorithm from Dr. Minnis (a co-PI), there was a change in the approach and emphasis of the project. The new approach was to develop a completely new type of remote sensing algorithm - one to directly retrieve joint probability density functions (pdf's) of cloud properties from multi-dimensional histograms of satellite radiances. The usual approach is to retrieve individual pixels of variables (i.e. cloud optical depth), and then aggregate the information. Only statistical information is actually needed, however, and so a more direct method is desirable. We developed forward radiative transfer models for the SSM/I and GOES channels, originally for testing the retrieval algorithms. The visible and near infrared ice scattering information is obtained from geometric ray tracing of fractal ice crystals (Andreas Macke), while the mid-infrared and microwave scattering is computed with Mie scattering. The radiative transfer is performed with the Spherical Harmonic Discrete Ordinate Method (developed by the PI), and infrared molecular absorption is included with the correlated k-distribution method. The SHDOM radiances have been validated by comparison to version 2 of DISORT (the community "standard" discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model), however we use SHDOM since it is computationally more efficient.

Description: Heavy rainfall occurred over the western side of Taiwan's complex terrain from August 10 to 13, 1994 after Typhoon Doug moved northward from the East China Sea into Taiwan and on towards the Yellow Sea. On August 10, most of the rainfall fell over sloped areas. The heaviest daily rainfall totals were in excess of 200 mm over southwestern as well as central Taiwan. However, not much rainfall occurred over northern Taiwan. The lack of rainfall over northern Taiwan also occurred on August 11, 12 and 13. The larger rainfall amounts shifted westward from the sloped areas on August 10 toward lower terrain on August 11. On August 12 and 13, most of the higher rainfall amounts were found over the coastal area in southwestern Taiwan. Notably, about 300 to 400 mm per day fell over the coastal area in southwest Taiwan on August 12 and 13. The distribution of rainfall amount was different on August 10 and 11 (termed as Case 1) compared to August 12 and 13 (termed as Case 2). The environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. Chen at al. (2001) also categorized the precipitation pattern into two types, propagating and quasi-stationary. For the propagating type of precipitation, rainrates increased or remained the same as systems went from the plains to mountainous regions. With the quasi-stationary type of precipitation, however, rainrates decreased as precipitation propagated across the plains and into the mountains. The focus of this study is to understand what causes the h1aher amounts of rainfall over Taiwan, and what factors influence where the higher amounts of rainfall will occur, over sloped areas or over coastal areas.

Description: An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosynchronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture, both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Description: CloudSat is a satellite experiment designed to measure the vertical structure of clouds from space. The expected launch of CloudSat is planned for 2004 and, once launched, CloudSat will orbit in formation as part of a constellation of satellites including NASA's Aqua and Aura satellites, a NASA-CNES lidar satellite (P-C) and a CNES satellite carrying a polarimeter (PARASOL). A unique feature that CloudSat brings to this constellation is the ability to fly a precise orbit enabling the fields of view of the CloudSat radar to be overlapped with the P-C lidar footprint and the other measurements of the EOS constellation. The precision of this overlap creates a unique multi-satellite observing system for studying the atmospheric processes essential to the hydrological cycle. The vertical profile of cloud properties provided by CloudSat fills a critical gap in the investigation of feedback mechanisms linking clouds to climate. Measuring the vertical profile of cloud properties requires a combination of active and passive instruments, and this will be achieved by combining the radar data of CloudSat with active and passive data from other sensors of the constellation. This paper describes the underpinning science, and gives an overview of the mission, and provides some idea of the expected products and anticipated application of these products. Notably, the CloudSat mission is expected to provide new knowledge about global cloudiness, stimulating new areas of research on clouds including data assimilation and cloud parameterization. The mission also provides an important opportunity to demonstrate active sensor technology for future scientific and tactical applications. The CloudSat mission is a partnership between NASA/JPL, the Canadian Space Agency, Colorado State University, the US Air Force, and the US Department of Energy.

Description: Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative processes) are performed to identify the physical processes that determine the precipitation patterns and characteristics for heavy rainfall events. These sensitivity tests indicated that terrain can play a major role in determining the exact location for both precipitation events. The terrain can also play a major role in determining the intensity of precipitation for both events. However, it has a large impact on one event but a smaller one on the other. The radiative processes are also important for determining, the precipitation patterns for one case but. not the other. The radiative processes can also effect the total rainfall for both cases to different extents.

Description: Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. The simulations are made using two different numerical advection schemes: 4th order and positive definite advection. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain. The midlatitude PRESTORM simulation was found to be nearly invariant with respect to advection type for most quantities while for TOGA COARE fourth order advection produced numerous shallow convective cores and positive definite advection fewer cells that were both broader and deeper penetrating above the freezing level.

Description: This study used a two-dimensional coupled land/atmosphere (cloud-resolving) model to investigate the influence of land cover on the water budgets of squall lines in the Sahel. Study simulations used the same initial sounding and one of three different land covers, a sparsely vegetated semi-desert, a grassy savanna, and a dense evergreen broadleaf forest. All simulations began at midnight and ran for 24 hours to capture a full diurnal cycle. In the morning, the latent heat flux, boundary layer mixing ratio, and moist static energy in the boundary layer exhibited notable variations among the three land covers. The broadleaf forest had the highest latent heat flux, the shallowest, moistest, slowest growing boundary layer, and significantly more moist static energy per unit area than the savanna and semi-desert. Although all simulations produced squall lines by early afternoon, the broadleaf forest had the most intense, longest-lived squall lines with 29% more rainfall than the savanna and 37% more than the semi-desert. The sensitivity of the results to vegetation density, initial sounding humidity, and grid resolution was also assessed. There were greater differences in rainfall among land cover types than among simulations of the same land cover with varying amounts of vegetation. Small changes in humidity were equivalent in effect to large changes in land cover, producing large changes in the condensate and rainfall. Decreasing the humidity had a greater effect on rainfall volume than increasing the humidity. Reducing the grid resolution from 1.5 km to 0.5 km decreased the temperature and humidity of the cold pools and increased the rain volume.

Description: Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, numerous experiments have been conducted in order to evaluate the impact of these and other data on atmospheric analysis and prediction. Such studies have included both OSE'S and OSSE's. The OSE's were conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. Such experiments have been performed for selected types of conventional data and for various satellite data sets as they became available. (See for example the 1989 ECMWF/EUMETSAT workshop proceedings on "The use of satellite data in operational numerical weather prediction" and the references contained therein.) The ODYSSEY were conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve Numerical Weather Prediction NWP and to plan for the Global Weather Experiment and more recently for EVANS (Atlas et al., 1985a; Arnold and Day, 1986; Hoffman et al., 1990). In addition, OSSE's have been run to evaluate trade-offs in the design of observing systems and observing networks (Atlas and Emmitt, 1991; Rohaly and Krishnamurti, 1993), and to test new methodology for data assimilation (Atlas and Bloom, 1989).

Description: Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain.

Description: Land-atmosphere feedback, by which (for example) precipitation-induced moisture anomalies at the land surface affect the overlying atmosphere and thereby the subsequent generation of precipitation, has been examined and quantified with many atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Generally missing from such studies, however, is an indication of the extent to which the simulated feedback strength is model dependent. Four modeling groups have recently performed a highly controlled numerical experiment that allows an objective inter-model comparison of land-atmosphere feedback strength. The experiment essentially consists of an ensemble of simulations in which each member simulation artificially maintains the same time series of surface prognostic variables. Differences in atmospheric behavior between the ensemble members then indicates the degree to which the state of the land surface controls atmospheric processes in that model. A comparison of the four sets of experimental results shows that feedback strength does indeed vary significantly between the AGCMs.

Description: An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosychronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and a) yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, b) make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Description: A short history of the development of the TRMM mission will be described focusing on the development of the science requirements, the close collaboration between the U.S. and Japan, and the technological and scientific success of the mission. The initial TRMM science workshop was held in 1986 and with the science requirements derived from that start a set of instruments were developed to measure tropical precipitation for the first mission with that parameter as the principal focus. Implementation of the mission concept was carried out by through close cooperation between U.S. and Japanese scientists, engineers and managers. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has now completed three years in orbit. A short summary of research highlights will be presented and these successes will be traced back to the scientific and programmatic approaches used to develop and manage the mission. Plans for a Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) based on the successful approach used for TRMM will also be outlined.

Description: We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common goals of full utilization of satellite data. This is a challenge that requires the assimilation of myriad new data into increasingly sophisticated numerical forecast models that run on increasingly sophisticated computer systems. In section II, we briefly outline the impact of satellite data on the quality of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecasts. In section III, we describe the present status of the utilization of satellite data in NCEP models and the challenges that lie ahead. In section IV, we propose solutions whose goals are summarized in section V.

Description: QuikSCAT backscatter and DMSP SSM/I radiance data are used to derive sea ice motion for both the Arctic and Antarctic region using wavelet analysis method. This technique provides improved spatial coverage over the existing array of Arctic Ocean buoys and better temporal resolution over techniques utilizing satellite data from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Sea ice motion of the Arctic for the period from October 1999 to March 2000 derived from QuikSCAT and SSM/I data agrees well with that derived from ocean buoys quantitatively. Thus the ice tracking results from QuikSCAT and SSM/I are complement to each other, Then, three sea-ice drift daily results from QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and buoy data can be merged to generate composite maps with more complete coverage of sea ice motion than those from single data source. A series of composite sea ice motion maps for December 1999 show that the major circulation patterns of sea ice motion are changing and shifting significantly within every four days and they are dominated by wind forcing. Sea-ice drift in the summer can not be derived from NSCAT and SSM/I data. In later summer of 1999 (in September), however, QuikSCAT data can provide good sea ice motion information in the Arctic. QuiksCAT can also provide at least partial sea ice motion information until June 15 in early summer 1999. For the Antarctic, case study shows that sea ice motion derived from QuikSCAT data is predominantly forced by and is consistent with wind field derived from QuikSCAT around the polar region. These calibrated/validated results indicate that QuikSCAT, SSM/I, and buoy merged daily ice motion are suitably accurate to identify and closely locate sea ice processes, and to improve our current knowledge of sea ice drift and related processes through the data assimilation of ocean-ice numerical model.

Description: Ship tracks represent a natural laboratory to study the effects of aerosols on clouds. A number of observations and simulations have shown that increased droplet concentrations in ship tracks increase their total cross-sectional area, thereby enhancing cloud albedo and providing a negative radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere. In some cases, cloud water has been found to be enhanced in ship tracks, which has been attributed to suppression of drizzle and implies an enhanced susceptibility of cloud albedo to droplet concentrations. However, more recently compiled observations indicate that cloud water is instead reduced in daytime ship tracks on average. Such a response is consistent with cloud-burning due to solar absorption by soot (the semi-direct radiative forcing of aerosols), recently suggested to be suppressing trade cumulus cloud coverage over the Indian Ocean. We will summarize observational evidence and present large-eddy simulations that consider these competing mechanisms in the effects of aerosols on cloud albedo.

Description: The Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) timeseries is a globally gridded atmospheric data set for use in climate research. This near real-time data set is produced by the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in direct support of the operational EOS instrument product generation from the Terra (12/1999 launch), Aqua (05/2002 launch) and Aura (01/2004 launch) spacecrafts. The data is archived in the EOS Core System (ECS) at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center/Distributed Active Archive Center (GES DISC DAAC). The data is only a selection of the products available from the GEOS-DAS. The data is organized chronologically in timeseries format to facilitate the computation of statistics. GEOS-DAS data will be available for the time period January 1, 2000, through present.

Description: The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 4) was a scientific field experiment based in Florida in summer 2001 focused on the study of hurricanes off the east coast of the United States. Sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Office of Earth Science, and conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's annual hurricane research program, CAMEX 4 utilized aircraft, ground-based and satellite instrumentation to obtain unprecedented, three dimensional characterizations of these important storms. The Aerosonde UAV was selected by NASA to participate in CAMEX 4 because it provided a unique capability to obtain measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer in and around the storms, unattainable by other platforms or measurement capabilities. This talk focuses on the NASA review process that was followed to coordinate the UAV activity with the conventional aircraft operations, as well as with the other participating agencies and the FAA. We will discuss how Aerosonde addressed the issues of safety, coordination and communication and summarize the lessons learned.

Description: Interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, QBO, NAO, etc.) have demonstrable influences on Earth's rotation. Here we study their effects on global gravitational field, whose temporal variations are being studied using SLR (satellite laser ranging) data and in anticipation of the new space mission GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using the EOF (empirical orthogonal function)/PC (principal component) decomposition of surface fields (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean). We examine two fields, one for the global surface pressure field for the atmosphere obtained from the NCEP reanalysis (for the past 40 years), one for the surface topography field for the ocean from the Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data (for the past 8 years). We use monthly maps, and remove the mean-monthly ("climatology") values from each grid point, hence focusing only on non-seasonal signals. The T/P data were first subject to a steric correction where the steric contribution to the ocean surface topography was removed according to output of the numerical POCM model. The respective atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the gravitational variation, in terms of harmonic Stokes coefficients, are then combined mode-by-mode. Since the T/P data already contain the oceanic response to overlying atmospheric pressure, no regards to the inverted-barometer behavior for the ocean need be considered. Results for the lowest-degree Stokes coefficients can then be compared with space geodetic observations including the Earth's rotation and the SLR data mentioned above, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Description: The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Description: Precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors available from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) can provide crucial information needed for improving global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. New methodologies are being developed at NASA to make effective use of this new data type in these applications. Currently, global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation, especially in the tropics. We show that assimilating 6-h averaged TRMM rainfall retrievals improves not only the hydrological cycle but also key climate parameters such as clouds, radiation, and the upper tropospheric moisture in the analysis produced by the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System. The improved analysis also leads to improved short-range forecasts in the tropics. The above results were obtained using a variational assimilation procedure that uses rainfall observations to derive moisture and temperature tendency corrections every 6 hours to compensate for errors arising from imperfect initial conditions and deficiencies in the model physics. We will describe a developmental path towards using space-borne rainfall data to empirically estimate and correct for state-dependent systematic errors in parameterized model physics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using remote-sensed rainfall data from microwave instruments to improve the 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and numerical weather prediction.

Description: This talk will focus on the afternoon constellation of EOS platforms and the scientific benefits that arise from this formation. The afternoon EOS constellation or the "A-train" will provide unprecedented information on clouds and aerosols. At 1:30 PM crossing time EOS-Aqua begins the train with the MODIS, CERES and AIRS instruments making aerosol, cloud, radiation budget , temperature and water vapor measurements. AMSR-E will also make total column water measurements. Following Aqua by one minute, Cloudsat will make active radar precipitation measurements as and PICASSOCENA will make lidar measurements of clouds and aerosols. Fourteen minutes later, EOS-Aura will pass through the same space making upper troposphere water vapor and ice profiles as well as some key trace gases associated with convective processes (MLS and HIRDLS). Additional measurements of aerosols will be made by Aura's OMI instrument.

Description: Following the scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spearheaded by a group of NASA and NASDA scientists, their external scientific collaborators, and additional investigators within the European Union's TRMM Research Program (EUROTRMM), there has been substantial progress towards the development of a new internationally organized, global scale, and satellite-based precipitation measuring mission. The highlights of this newly developing mission are a greatly expanded scope of measuring capability and a more diversified set of science objectives. The mission is called the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Notionally, GPM will be a constellation-type mission involving a fleet of nine satellites. In this fleet, one member is referred to as the "core" spacecraft flown in an approximately 70 degree inclined non-sun-synchronous orbit, somewhat similar to TRMM in that it carries both a multi-channel polarized passive microwave radiometer (PMW) and a radar system, but in this case it will be a dual frequency Ku-Ka band radar system enabling explicit measurements of microphysical DSD properties. The remainder of fleet members are eight orbit-synchronized, sun-synchronous "constellation" spacecraft each carrying some type of multi-channel PMW radiometer, enabling no worse than 3-hour diurnal sampling over the entire globe. In this configuration the "core" spacecraft serves as a high quality reference platform for training and calibrating the PMW rain retrieval algorithms used with the "constellation" radiometers. Within NASA, GPM has advanced to the pre-formulation phase which has enabled the initiation of a set of science and technology studies which will help lead to the final mission design some time in the 2003 period. This presentation first provides an overview of the notional GPM program and mission design, including its organizational and programmatic concepts, scientific agenda, expected instrument package, and basic flight architecture. Following this introduction, we focus specifically on the last topic, that being an analysis which leads to an optimal flight architecture dictated in part by science requirements but constrained by allowable orbital mechanics, instrument scan patterns, and antenna aperture properties. Because the optimal architecture involves an interplay between orbit mechanics and instrument specifications, it is important to recognize that in attempting to serve various scientific themes, the final optimal architecture will represent a compromise concerning dynamic range, spatial resolution, sampling interval, pointing, beam coincidence, and measurement uncertainty. Moreover, cost becomes a major factor in seeking the optimal architecture through the pathways of antenna and instrument scan designs, as well as propulsion requirements associated with the orbit heights of various "constellation" members. Although the results presented at the IGARSS-2001 meeting will likely not be the fully refined flight architecture specifications, they are expected to be nearly complete.

Description: In this presentation we review the fractal nature of internal cloud structure from cm- to km-scales as captured by in-situ probes during long horizontal penetrations by aircraft. We uncover the non-Poissonian spatial distribution of cloud droplets at submeter scales and confirm scale-invariant behavior for large scales. Based on these structural characteristics, we generate simple fractal cloud models that reproduce statistical scaling properties of real clouds. These stochastic models represent a link between nonlinear science, in general, and cloud-radiation interaction, in particular. Next we run three-dimensional radiative transfer computations on these synthetic fractal clouds and compare the structure of the resulting radiation fields with the known structure of the cloud model and with satellite images of real clouds. The different behaviors observed for small and large-scale variabilities will be discussed in detail. We find that while the large-scale fluctuations of the resulting radiation fields resemble those in the original scale-invariant cloud structure, the radiation at small scales is much smoother than its cloud liquid water counterpart. This violates scale-invariance and produces a scale-break at 0.2-0.5 km that is clearly observed in high-resolution satellite data such as from Landsat. Finally, we show how radiative transfer Green function theory in the photon diffusion limit explains (and predicts) the above phenomena of "radiative smoothing."

Description: When cloud properties are retrieved from satellite observations, the calculations apply 1D theory to the 3D world: they only consider vertical structures and ignore horizontal cloud variability. This presentation discusses how big the resulting errors can be in the operational retrievals of cloud optical thickness. A new technique was developed to estimate the magnitude of potential errors by analyzing the spatial patterns of visible and infrared images. The proposed technique was used to set error bars for optical depths retrieved from new MODIS measurements. Initial results indicate that the 1 km resolution retrievals are subject to abundant uncertainties. Averaging over 50 by 50 km areas reduces the errors, but does not remove them completely; even in the relatively simple case of high sun (30 degree zenith angle), about a fifth of the examined areas had biases larger than ten percent. As expected, errors increase substantially for more oblique illumination.

Description: The United States has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years. In this talk, I will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Description: Understanding the effect of aerosol on cloud systems is one of the major challenges in atmospheric and climate research. Local studies suggest a multitude of influences on cloud properties. Yet the overall effect on cloud albedo, a critical parameter in climate simulations, remains uncertain. NASA's Triana mission will provide, from its EPIC multi-spectral imager, simultaneous data on aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity. With Triana's unique position in space these data will be available not only globally but also over the entire daytime, well suited to accommodate the often short lifetimes of aerosol and investigations around diurnal cycles. This pilot study explores the ability to detect relationships between aerosol properties and cloud reflectivity with sophisticated statistical methods. Sample results using data from the EOS Terra platform to simulate Triana are presented.

Description: Cirrus measurements obtained with a ground-based polarization Raman lidar at 67.9 N in January 1997 reveal a strong correlation between the particle optical properties, specifically depolarization ratio delta and extinct ion-to-backscatter ratio S, for ambient cloud temperatures above approximately -45 C (delta less than approximately 40%), and an anti-correlation for colder temperatures (delta greater than approximately 40%). Over the length of the measurements (4-7.5 hours) the particle properties vary systematically: Initially, delta approximately equal to 60% and S approximately equal to 10sr are observed. Then, with decreasing delta, S first increases to approximately 27 sr(delta approximately equal to 40%) before decreasing to values around 10 sr again (delta approximately equal to 20%). The particle optical properties distinctly depend on the ambient temperature. For the microphysical analysis of the lidar observations. ray-tracing computations of particle scattering properties and a size-distribution resolving cirrus model with explicit microphysics have been used. The theoretical studies show that the optical properties and their temporal evolution can be interpreted in terms of size, shape, and growth of the cirrus particles: Near the cloud top in the early stage of the cirrus development, light scattering by small hexagonal columns with aspect ratios close to one is dominant. Over time the cloud base height extends to lower altitudes with warmer temperatures, the ice particles grow and get morphologically diverse (the scattering contributions of hexagonal columns and plates are roughly the same for large S and depolarization values of approximately 40%). In the lower ranges of the cirrus clouds, light scattering is predominantly by plate-like or complex ice particles. Mid-latitude cirrus data measured with the same instrument at 53.4 N between 1994 and 1996 follow closely the correlation between delta and S found in the warmer regions of the Arctic cirrus clouds (delta less than approximately 40%). Cirrus clouds with higher depolarization ratios are rarely observed, even for very cold ambient temperatures. Atmospheric parameters other than temperature, e.g., the availability of water vapor, are also important for the growth and the morphology of cirrus particles.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates Over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Description: A new method for determining unfiltered shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and window (W) radiances from filtered radiances measured by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite instrument is presented. The method uses theoretically derived regression coefficients between filtered and unfiltered radiances that are a function of viewing geometry, geotype and whether or not cloud is present. Relative errors in insta.ntaneous unfiltered radiances from this method are generally well below 1% for SW radiances (approx. 0.4% 1(sigma) or approx.l W/sq m equivalent flux), 〈 0.2% for LW radiances (approx. 0.1% 1(sigma) or approx.0.3 W/sq m equivalent flux) and 〈 0.2% (approx. 0.1% 1(sigma) for window channel radiances.

Description: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program studied water vapor abundance measurement at its southern Great Plains site in the fall of 1997. The program used a large number of instruments, including four solar radiometers. By measuring solar transmittance in the 0.94 micrometer water apor absorption band, they were able to measure columnar water vapor (CWV). In the second round of comparison we used the same radiative transfer model, and the same line-by-line code (which includes recently corrected H2O spectroscopy) to retrieve CWV from all four solar radiometers, thus decreasing the mean CWV by 8 - 13 %. The model was not responsible for the 8 % spread in CWV which remained.

Description: A recent paper by Shepherd and Pierce (conditionally accepted to Journal of Applied Meteorology) used rainfall data from the Precipitation Radar on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) satellite to identify warm season rainfall anomalies downwind of major urban areas. A convective-mesoscale model with extensive land-surface processes is employed to (a) determine if an urban heat island (UHI) thermal perturbation can induce a dynamic response to affect rainfall processes and (b) quantify the impact of the following three factors on the evolution of rainfall: (1) urban surface roughness, (2) magnitude of the UHI temperature anomaly, and (3) physical size of the UHI temperature anomaly. The sensitivity experiments are achieved by inserting a slab of land with urban properties (e.g. roughness length, albedo, thermal character) within a rural surface environment and varying the appropriate lower boundary condition parameters. Early analysis suggests that urban surface roughness (through turbulence and low-level convergence) may control timing and initial location of UHI-induced convection. The magnitude of the heat island appears to be closely linked to the total rainfall amount with minor impact on timing and location. The physical size of the city may predominantly impact on the location of UHI-induced rainfall anomaly. The UHI factor parameter space will be thoroughly investigated with respect to their effects on rainfall amount, location, and timing. This study extends prior numerical investigations of the impact of urban surfaces on meteorological processes, particularly rainfall development. The work also contains several novel aspects, including the application of a high-resolution (less than I km) cloud-mesoscale model to investigate urban-induce rainfall process; investigation of thermal magnitude of the UHI on rainfall process; and investigation of UHI physical size on rainfall processes.

Description: This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Description: The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is a NASA-sponsored and -led science investigation that utilizes an uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) to investigate thunderstorms in the vicinity of the NASA Kennedy Space Center, Florida. As part of NASA's UAV-based science demonstration program, ACES will provide a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. ACES will employ the Altus 11 aircraft, built by General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems, Inc. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 55,000 feet), the Altus will be flown near, and when possible, above (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and (3) provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload, already developed and flown on Altus, includes electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. The ACES field campaign will be conducted during July 2002 with a goal of performing 8 to 10 UAV flights. Each flight will require about 4 to 5 hours on station at altitudes from 40,000 ft to 55,000 ft. The ACES team is comprised of scientists from the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and NASA Goddard Space Flight Centers partnered with General Atomics and IDEA, LLC.

Description: Fields from chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by assimilated winds have been shown to represent many aspects of observations at middle and high latitudes. Comparisons of modeled fields with observations have been much poorer in the tropics. Noise in the tropical winds produces variability in constituents in the tropics that greatly exceeds what is observed, Constituent gradients between the tropics, subtropics and middle latitudes are weaker than observed in the lower stratosphere. Tropical transport is shown to be much more realistic using a CTM driven by winds from the assimilation system that has recently been developed by the Data Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM), a general circulation model model that uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood dynamical core, is at the core of the new assimilation system. Realistic transport in the tropics, particularly troposphere to stratosphere exchange, is an obvious requirement for realistic representation of the stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone and other stratospheric constituents to the middle latitude upper troposphere.

Description: Stochastic fractal models of clouds are often used to study 3D radiative effects and their influence on the remote sensing of cloud properties. Since it is important that the cloud models produce a correct radiative response, some researchers require the model parameters to match observed cloud properties such as scale-independent optical thickness variability. Unfortunately, matching these properties does not necessarily imply that the cloud models will cause the right 3D radiative effects. First, the matched properties alone only influence the 3D effects but do not completely determine them. Second, in many cases the retrieved cloud properties have been already biased by 3D radiative effects, and so the models may not match the true real clouds. Finally, the matched cloud properties cannot be considered independent from the scales at which they have been retrieved. This paper proposes an approach that helps ensure that fractal cloud models are realistic and produce the right 3D effects. The technique compares the results of radiative transfer simulations for the model clouds to new direct observations of 3D radiative effects in satellite images.

Description: This paper addresses the status of the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. The GPM notional design involves a 9-member satellite constellation, one of which wilt be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (DFPR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation will be considered daughters of the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7 - 85 GHz ,frequency range - likely to include a combination of lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/Experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/I and AMSR-E & -F). The constellation is designed to provide no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture for the daughter satellites, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud-precipitation microphysical processes and the "training-calibrating" information for retrieval algorithms used on daughter satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community nations). The mission is expected to involve additional international participants, sister agencies to the mainstream space agencies, and a diverse collection scientists from academia, government, and the private sector, A critical element in understanding the scientific thinking which has motivated the GPM project is an understanding of what scientific problems TRMM has and has not been able to address and at what scales. The TRMM satellite broke important scientific ground because it carried to space an array of rain-sensitive instruments, two of which were specifically designed for physical precipitation retrieval. These were the 9-channel TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the 13.8 GHz Precipitation Radar (PR). By the same token, because TRMM is a single satellite in a low inclination, low altitude, non-sun-synchronous orbit, it cannot provide global coverage or regular diurnal sampling. These features are essential for many current scientific inquiries involving physical processes of climate and the global water cycle, the modeling of hydrometeorological-biogeochemical cycling, and coupled land-atmosphere/ocean-atmosphere exchanges. Moreover, TRMM has not been able to retrieve explicit properties of the drop size distribution (DSD), a final major barrier to making accurate rain measurements, because the single frequency TRMM radar cannot measure differential reflectivity. which is a minimal requirement for attacking rain retrieval within the framework of extinction cross-section-dependency. GPM is expected to surmount much of the DSD retrieval problem because its core satellite wilt have the capacity to make differential reflectivity measurements with its Ku-Ka band radar (13.6 - 35 GHz) called DFPR - being developed by NASDA/CRL in Japan. This paper will provide an overview of the above issues as well as present a discussion on the expected measurement improvements.

Description: In comparison to mid latitude cloud cover, knowledge of polar cirrus and other cloud cover is limited. The interpretations of satellite-based cloud imaging and retrievals in polar regions have major problems due to factors such as darkness and extreme low temperatures. Beginning in 2002 a NASA orbiting lidar instrument, GLAS, (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) will unambiguously define cloud type and fraction with good coverage of polar regions. Active laser sensing gives the spatial and temporal distribution of clouds and diamond dust. In preparation for, and supplementing the GLAS measurements are ground based MP (micro pulse) lidar experiments providing continuous profiling. MP lidar installations have been operating at the South Pole since December 1999 and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program arctic site since 1996. Both at the ARM Barrow, Alaska site and at the South Pole station, Fourier-transform interferometers also observe clouds in the wavelength intervals between approximately 5 and 18 microns. Spectral instruments can yield cloud microphysical properties with additional information from lidar about the vertical extent of clouds being modeled. We examine the simultaneous lidar and spectral data from both Barrow and South Pole, to obtain cloud properties (optical depth, particle size) by the use of both instruments. The results have applications to interpretation of current satellite data, and GLAS measurements when available.

Description: Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Description: Water vapor is one of the most important atmospheric constituents that has a critical impact on cloud formation (ice or liquid). It is also a source that needs to be accounted for in remote measurements of surface parameters. In the high-latitude regions, e.g., Antarctica, monitoring of the state of water vapor and its transport into and out of these regions is important towards our understanding the state of balance of ice sheets and its effect on the global sea level. The technique of retrieving low amount of column water vapor using the millimeter-wave radiometric measurements, as presented in this paper, will be very useful for these regions, especially during winter times when the atmosphere is relatively dry.

Description: Some of the first evidence of a cloud absorption anomaly came from retrievals of cloud droplet size using measured multispectral cloud reflectance and in situ microphysical measurements. It was found that spectra computed from the measured droplet size or, equivalently, effective radius inverted from the reflectance measurements disagreed in such a way that suggested there was more absorption in cloud than predicted by theory. During the past decade new evidence of a cloud absorption anomaly has emerged from broadband solar flux measurements from above and below clouds. Based on these findings new field campaigns were devised to specifically address this problem. The most recent of these, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave Experiment II (ARESEII), included measurements of upwelling and downwelling moderate resolution (10 nm) solar irradiance spectra from above and below cloud. During this talk we will briefly summarize the advantages and limitations of these spectrally resolved measurements compared to the more standard broadband flux. We will focus on cloudy atmosphere results from the ARESEII field study and compare them to theoretical spectra from three independent models.

Description: Heavy rainfall events are frequently observed over the western side of the CMR (central mountain range), which runs through Taiwan in a north-south orientation, in a southwesterly flow regime and over the northeastern side of the CMR in a northeasterly flow regime. Previous studies have revealed the mechanisms by which the heavy rainfall events are formed. Some of them have examined characteristics of the heavy rainfall via numerical simulations. In this paper, some of the previous numerical studies on heavy rainfall events around Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season (May and June), summer (non-typhoon cases) and autumn will be reviewed. Associated mechanisms proposed from observational studies will be reviewed first, and then characteristics of numerically simulated heavy rainfall events will be presented. The formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall from simulated results and from observational analysis are then compared and discussed. Based on these previous modeling studies, we will also discuss what are the major observations and modeling processes which will be needed for understanding the heavy precipitation in the future.

Description: This paper presents preliminary results of an ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction scheme developed at the Climate and Radiation Branch, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center for determining the potential predictability of regional precipitation, and for climate downscaling studies. The scheme is tested on seasonal hindcasts of anomalous precipitation over the continental United States using global sea surface temperature (SST) for 1951-2000. To maximize the forecast skill derived from SST, the world ocean is divided into non-overlapping sectors. The canonical SST modes for each sector are used as the predictor for the ensemble hindcasts. Results show that the ECC yields a substantial (10-25%) increase in prediction skills for all the regions of the US in every season compared to traditional CCA prediction schemes. For the boreal winter, the tropical Pacific contributes the largest potential predictability to precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern regions, while the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible to the enhanced forecast skills in the Pacific Northwest, the northern Great Plains and Ohio Valley. Most importantly, the ECC increases skill for summertime precipitation prediction and substantially reduces the spring predictability barrier over all the regions of the US continent. Besides SST, the ECC is designed with the flexibility to include any number of predictor fields, such as soil moisture, snow cover and additional local observations. The enhanced ECC forecast skill provides a new benchmark for evaluating dynamical model forecasts.

Description: Small meteorological rocketsondes providing temperature data have beam used for comparison with, and validation of measurements from satellite-borne instruments. A significant number of rocket-borne falling spheres were launched in conjunction with the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) for validation of the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), High Resolution Doppler Interferometer (HRDI), and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments. Upper stratosphere and mesosphere temperatures measured with these instruments on UARS are compared with inflatable spheres launched from Wallops Island (1992-1999), Brazil (1994), Hawaii (1992), Norway (1992), and Sweden (1993 and 1996). Time and space differences varied between the satellite measurement and the rocketsonde launch, for example HALOE overpasses occurred within 5 days and in some cases there were spatial differences of up to 30 degrees longitude. Validation measurements of the HRDI instrument occurred at Wallops Island when it passed within 20 minutes and 330 kilometers of the launch site. Because of discontinuity in the falling sphere drag coefficients when fall speed neared MACH 1 falling sphere temperatures near 70 kilometers attitude are biased toward lower temperatures. Availability of improved software and a new atmospheric model have helped to reduce this bias. The validated remote instrument measurements permit a new perspective of atmospheric structure to be formed, not always possible with the limited number of falling sphere measurements. Features of the remote measurement temperature profiles and their possible use to extend the climatological data base at the rocketsonde sites will be discussed.

Description: The Transfer Function Model (TFM) is a semi-analytical, linear model that is designed especially to describe thermospheric perturbations associated with magnetic storms and substorm. activity. It is a multi-constituent model (N2, O, He H, Ar) that accounts for wind induced diffusion, which significantly affects not only the composition and mass density but also the temperature and wind fields. Because the TFM adopts a semianalytic approach in which the geometry and temporal dependencies of the driving sources are removed through the use of height-integrated Green's functions, it provides physical insight into the essential properties of processes being considered, which are uncluttered by the accidental complexities that arise from particular source geometrie and time dependences. Extending from the ground to 700 km, the TFM eliminates spurious effects due to arbitrarily chosen boundary conditions. A database of transfer functions, computed only once, can be used to synthesize a wide range of spatial and temporal sources dependencies. The response synthesis can be performed quickly in real-time using only limited computing capabilities. These features make the TFM unique among global dynamical models. Given these desirable properties, a version of the TFM has been developed for personal computers (PC) using advanced platform-independent 3D visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the model capabilities with simulations for different auroral sources, including the response of ducted gravity waves modes that propagate around the globe. The thermospheric response is found to depend strongly on the spatial and temporal frequency spectra of the storm. Such varied behavior is difficult to describe in statistical empirical models. To improve the capability of space weather prediction, the TFM thus could be grafted naturally onto existing statistical models using data assimilation.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was deployed to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in northern Oklahoma September - December, 2000 for two DOE sponsored field campaigns: 1) the Water Vapor Intensive Operations Experiment 2000 and 2) the Atmospheric Radiations Measurement First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Experiment Experiment (AFWEX). WvIOP2000 focussed on water vapor measurements in the lower troposphere while AFWEX focussed on upper tropospheric water vapor. For the first time ever, four water vapor lidars were operated simultaneously: one airborne and three ground-based systems. Intercomparisons of these measurements and others will be presented at the meeting.

Description: Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse ---mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat SeaWinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Several data impact experiments have been performed, using systems from both the DAO (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS). In general, these experiments have shown a modest impact of SeaWinds data on numerical weather prediction, the magnitude of which appears to be comparable to the magnitude of the impact of AMI scatterometer data from the ERS satellites. Some of the main results from these experiments will be presented at the meeting.

Description: Low-earth orbit satellite measurements of total lightning have diverse applications for lightning-related NOx production. Topics to be covered include: (1) current availability of gridded global and tropical lightning climatologies from the OTD and LIS sensors; (2) estimation of the IC:CG ratio from combination of satellite and surface network observations (relevant for net storm production); (3) determination of land and ocean storm flash rate spectra, and their implications for parameterized "scaling law" approaches to lightning NOx estimation; and (4) use of satellite observations to assess and correct for the range-dependent performance of groundbased systems, including LDAR and NLDN.

Description: A TRMM-based 3-hourly precipitation algorithm is currently under development, with the goal of producing 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg, 3-hourly gridded estimates for the period January 1999 to the present over the latitude band +/-50 deg. [Extension to higher latitudes will be undertaken next]. TMI precipitation estimates are used to calibrate SSM/I estimates, and AMSR, when available. Then a merger of the microwave estimates is used to create a calibrated IR estimate in a Probability-Matched-Threshold approach. The microwave and IR estimates are next combined at the individual 3-hour level. Early results will be shown, including typical tropical and extratropical storm evolution and examples of the diurnal cycle. Major issues will be discussed, including the choice of IR algorithm, the approach to merging the IR and microwave estimates, and extension to the GPCP One-Degree Daily product (for which the authors are responsible). The work described here provides one approach to using data from the future NASA Global Precipitation Measurement program, which is designed to provide full global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours beginning around 2007.

Description: A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) sq km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, (1999-2001). We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed more than three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Examples and plans for operational use of TRMM data in tropical cyclone and other applications will be given. The status of precipitation estimates from different instruments and algorithms will be described. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20% in overall mean. In addition, time changes in global ocean rainfall between El Nino and La Nina conditions show a difference in sign between the active and passive microwave products. These differences are not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving the differences will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three-year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of using TRMM information to calibrate other passive microwave observations and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates and then merging them those estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Description: The future of satellite-based optical lightning detection, beyond the end of the current TRMM mission, is discussed. Opportunities for new low-earth orbit missions are reviewed. The potential for geostationary observations is significant; such observations provide order-of-magnitude gains in sampling and data efficiency over existing satellite convective observations. The feasibility and performance (resolution, sensitivity) of geostationary measurements using current technology is discussed. In addition to direct and continuous hemispheric observation of lighting, geostationary measurements have the potential (through data assimilation) to dramatically improve short and medium range forecasts, offering benefits to prediction of NOx productions and/or vertical transport.

Description: The newly established Center for Aerosol Research (AEROCENTER) located at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt MD is dedicated to fostering interdisciplinary research in all aspects of aerosol science. AEROCENTER will be an incubator for innovative new analysis of existing data and ideas for new space missions. The plan is to tap and harvest ideas from a broad international and interdisciplinary science community and to incorporate these ideas into NASA's aerosol research effort for understanding and predicting the aerosol effect on climate and the environment. In order to achieve this goal the center aims to host several established and developing scientists for a period of 3-6 months each year. AEROCENTER will also develop a new technical infrastructure that will integrate the present aerosol research activities and data resources of GSFC/Greenbelt and GSFC/GISS, increase efficiency in the use of NASA remote sensing data, and increase the involvement of a larger national and international scientific community. The center aims to institutionalize and extend the present knowledge base within NASA into a national resource for the education and research communities.

Description: The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is scheduled for launch on the ICESat satellite as part of the NASA EOS mission in 2002. GLAS will be used to perform high resolution surface altimetry and will also provide a continuously operating atmospheric lidar to profile clouds, aerosols, and the planetary boundary layer with horizontal and vertical resolution of 175 and 76.8 m, respectively. GLAS is the first active satellite atmospheric profiler to provide global coverage. Data products include direct measurements of the heights of aerosol and cloud layers, and the optical depth of transmissive layers. In this poster we provide an overview of the GLAS atmospheric data products, present a simulated GLAS data set, and show results from the simulated data set using the GLAS data processing algorithm. Optical results from the ER-2 Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL), which uses many of the same processing algorithms as GLAS, show algorithm performance with real atmospheric conditions during the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000).

Description: This study evaluates the level 2 and level 3 rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission gridded distribution of 118 high resolution tipping buckets from the Oklahoma Mesonet. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a joint satellite mission between NASA and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, was designed to estimate global precipitation between 40 S and 40 N latitude. The TRMM satellite, consisting of two main precipitation sensors, a passive microwave (TMI) and precipitation radar (PR) sensors, was launched in 1997. Although the great advantage of TRMM has been its ability to sample precipitation globally over the tropical oceans in places where ground sensors do not exist, regional points over land still offer the best opportunity for validating these rain estimates. For this study, the gauge data was gridded at I x I degree resolution between 34 and 36 N and -95 and -100 W. The location of Oklahoma is somewhat unique, in that, it is located near the turning point for the satellite. This study investigates effects of temporal sampling on the satellite measurements and the resulting rainfall bias observed between space and ground based sensors. The first part of the study analyzes the monthly rainfall statistics of the 3AI2 (TMI), the 3A25 (PR) and the 31142 (combined sensors) with the rain gauges. It uses regression techniques and a computation of the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative probability density function (CDF) for each sensor to evaluate the effects of temporal sampling on the satellite products and the sufficiency of using two overpasses a day to estimate rainfall on a monthly scale. In further probing this issue, the study also looked at the direct coincidence of ground and satellite measurements by comparing instantaneous comparisons obtained from the level 2 orbital track data, e.g. 2A12, 2A25. Lastly, the effects of temporal sampling were further studied by sub-sampling the gauge data only at overpass times. This methodology provides a quantitative way of separately inferring the fraction of bias due to temporal sampling and the rainfall algorithm. In addition to showing the salient effects of temporal sampling, the study also revisits the historical problem of correlating point gauge estimates with area estimates, though, the problem is ameliorated by averaging and gridding the data to the area resolution scale of the satellite.

Description: The spatial and temporal evolution of the moisture field over the subtropical northwest Pacific during the summer of 1995 is investigated using daily total precipitable water from combined SSM/I-TOVS data and pentad upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) data, in conjunction with NCEP reanalysis data. From analysis of the combined water vapor field, the westward movement of a dry airmass is observed along the 20-30 degrees N latitude zone from near the dateline to the south of Japan throughout the summer of 1995. Extended EOF analysis of total precipitable water reveals that the westward moving pattern takes place in conjunction with an expanding North Pacific subtropical high maintaining an oscillatory component exhibiting a period of some 15-25 days. A concomitant dipole-like oscillating anomalous circulation with approximately a 20-day period between the South China Sea and south of Japan appears to influence the westward expansion of the subtropical high. The analysis also suggests that the fluctuations of the North Pacific high are in response to a local Hadley-type circulation which is induced by westward-moving anomalous convection episodes along 10-20 degrees N.

Description: The numerical simulation of CO2 transport (and other tracers such as CO, CH4, and biomass burning tracers) in the atmosphere is required to determine the fate of anthropogenic source gases. Estimation of the CO2 exchange between the ocean surface, the terrestrial biosphere, and the atmosphere is of first-order importance to understanding the global carbon cycle and the processes that are most crucial in determining the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Forward transport simulations have been conducted using two-dimensional, time-dependent grids of average surface fluxes (from TRANSCOM) and three-dimensional wind data from a prototype data assimilation system (FV-DAS) run by the Goddard Data Assimilation Office. The objective is to better understand the contribution of meteorological variability to changes in CO2 and other constituents, By accurately accounting for meteorological variability, through use of assimilated winds, we hope to better characterize the distribution of surface sources and sinks (and chemistry where applicable). With assimilated meteorology such chemistry/transport runs provide the basic framework to analyze existing (and proposed) measurement data on a point-by-point, real-time basis. We compare with measured CO2 concentration gradients on a daily, seasonal, regional, and interhemispheric basis to examine the consistency of sources, sinks, and transport formulation. We will also examine the inter-annual variability of atmospheric CO2 due to atmospheric circulation changes using longer runs with assimilated winds.

Description: The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft at 1.5 kilometer height. The SRA measures the energetic portion of the directional wave spectrum by generating a topographic map of the sea surface. The data were acquired on 24 August 1998 when Hurricane Bonnie was 400 km east of Abaco Island, Bahamas. Individual waves with heights up to 19 meters were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction. At one position, three different wave systems of comparable energy and wavelength crossed each other. The aircraft spent over five hours within 180 kilometers of the Hurricane Bonnie eye and made five eye penetrations. On 26 August 1998, the SRA at 2.2 kilometer height documented the directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC, and Cape Hatteras, NC, as Hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The storm was similar in size during the two flights, but the maximum speed in the NOAA Hurricane Research Division surface wind analysis was 15% lower prior to landfall (39 meters per second) than it had been in the open ocean (46 meters per second). This was compensated for by its faster movement prior to landfall (9.5 meters per second) than when it was encountered in the open ocean (5 meters per second), significantly increasing the effective fetch and duration of waves near the peak of the spectrum which propagated in the direction of the storm track. The open ocean wave height variation indicated that Hurricane Bonnie would have produced waves of 11 meters significant wave height on the shore northeast of Wilmington had it not been for the continental shelf. The bathymetry distributed the steepening and breaking process across the shelf so that the wavelength and wave height were reduced gradually as the shore was approached. The wave height 5 kilometers from shore was about 4 meters.

Description: The Precipitation Radar aboard the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite has shown the potential for spaceborne sensing of snow and rain by means of an incoherent pulsed radar operating at 13.8 GHz. The primary advantage of radar relative to passive instruments arises from the fact that the radar can image the 3-dimensional structure of storms. As a consequence, the radar data can be used to determine the vertical rain structure, rain type (convective/stratiform) effective storm height, and location of the melting layer. The radar, moreover, can be used to detect snow and improve the estimation of rain rate over land. To move toward spaceborne weather radars that can be deployed routinely as part of an instrument set consisting of passive and active sensors will require the development of less expensive, lighter-weight radars that consume less power. At the same time, the addition of a second frequency and an upgrade to Doppler capability are features that are needed to retrieve information on the characteristics of the drop size distribution, vertical air motion and storm dynamics. One approach to the problem is to use a single broad-band transmitter-receiver and antenna where two narrow-band frequencies are spaced apart by 5% to 10% of the center frequency. Use of Ka-band frequencies (26.5 GHz - 40 GHz) affords two advantages: adequate spatial resolution can be attained with a relatively small antenna and the differential reflectivity and mean Doppler signals are directly related to the median mass diameter of the snow and raindrop size distributions. The differential mean Doppler signal has the additional property that this quantity depends only on that part of the radial speed of the hydrometeors that is drop-size dependent. In principle, the mean and differential mean Doppler from a near-nadir viewing radar can be used to retrieve vertical air motion as well as the total mean radial velocity. In the paper, we present theoretical calculations for the differential reflectivity and Doppler as functions of the center frequency, frequency difference, and median mass diameter. For a fixed pair of frequencies, the detectability of the differential signals can be expressed as the number of independent samples required to detect rain or snow with a particular median mass diameter. Because sampling numbers on the order of 1000 are needed to detect the differential signal over a range of size distributions, the instrument must be confined to a near-nadir, narrow swath. Radar measurements from a zenith directed radar operated at 9.1 GHz and 10 GHz are used to investigate the qualitative characteristics of the differential signals. Disdrometer and rain gauge data taken at the surface, just below the radar, are used to test whether the differential signals can be used to estimate characteristics of the raindrop size distribution.

Description: On 26 August 1998, the SRA at 2.2 km height documented the directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC, and Cape Hatteras, NC, as Hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The storm was similar in size during the two flights, but the maximum speed in the NOAA Hurricane Research Division surface wind analysis was 15% lower prior to landfall (39 m/s) than it had been in the open ocean (46 m/s). This was compensated for by its faster movement prior to landfall (9.5 m/s) than when it was encountered in the open ocean (5 m/s), significantly increasing the effective fetch and duration of waves near the peak of the spectrum which propagated in the direction of the storm track. The open ocean wave height variation indicated that Hurricane Bonnie would have produced waves of 11 m significant wave height on the shore northeast of Wilmington had it not been for the continental shelf. The bathymetry distributed the steepening and breaking process across the shelf so that the wavelength and wave height were reduced gradually as the shore was approached. The wave height 5 km from shore was about 4 in.

Description: Theoretical models of radiative transfer are developed to simulate the 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer as a function of rain rate. These simulations are performed separately over regions of convective and stratiform rain. For the purpose of constructing vertical profiles of hydrometeors in these regions, guidance is taken from TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) observations, and from recent investigations of LDR and Z(sub DR) measurements made by land-based polarimetric radars. We find that for a given rain rate, the extinction in 85 GHz due to hydrometeors above the freezing level is relatively weak in convective regions compared to that in stratiform regions. The hydrometeor profile above the freezing level responsible for this weak extinction in convective regions is inferred, from LDR and Z(sub DR) observations and theoretical considerations, to contain two layers: 1) a layer of two km thickness with mixed phase particles, liquid drops and graupel, directly above the freezing level, and 2) a layer of graupel extending from the top of the mixed-phase layer to the cloud top. Strong extinction in the stratiform regions is inferred to result from slowly-falling, low-density ice aggregates (snow) above the freezing level. These theoretical results are consistent with T85 measured by TMI and the rain rate deduced from PR for convective and stratiform rain regions. On the basis of this study we infer that the accuracy of the rain rate sensed by TMI depends critically on the specification of the convective or stratiform nature of the rain.

Description: Laboratory calibration and observed background radiance data are used to determine the effective sensitivities of the Optical Transient Detector and Lightning Imaging Sensor, as functions of local hour and pixel location within the instrument arrays. The effective LIS thresholds, expressed as radiances emitted normal to cloud top, are 4.0 plus or minus 0.7 and 7.6 plus or minus 3.3 micro J/ster/m (sup 2) for night and local noon; the OTD thresholds am 11.7 plus or minus 2.2 and 16.8 plus or minus 4.6 microJ/ster/m (sup 2). LIS and OTD minimum signal to noise ratios occur from 0800 to 1600 local time, and attain values of 10 plus or minus 2 and 20 plus or minus 3, respectively. False alarm rate due to instrument noise yields approximately 5 false triggers per month for LIS, and is negligible for OTD. Flash detection efficiency, based on prior optical pulse sensor measurements, is predicted to be 93 plus or minus 4% and 73 plus or minus 11% for LIS night and noon; 56 plus or minus 7% and 44 plus or minus 9% for OTD night and noon, corresponding to a 12 - 20% diurnal variability and LIS:OTD ratio of 1.7. Use of the weighted daily mean detection efficiency (i.e., not controlling for local hour) corresponds to a sigma = 8 - 9% uncertainty. These are likely overestimates of actual flash detection efficiency due to differences in pixel ground field-of-view across the instrument arrays, which are not accounted for in the validation optical pulse sensor data.

Description: The optical absorbance of the vapor phase over various In-Se compositions between 33.3 and 61 atomic percent and 673 and 1418K has been measured and used to obtain the partial pressures of Se2(g) and In2Se(g). The results are in agreement with silica Bourdon gage measurements for compositions between 50 and 61 atomic percent but significantly higher than those from Knudsen cell and simultaneous Torsion-Knudsen cell measurements. The sequiselenide is found to sublime incongruently. Congruent vaporization occurs for the liquid above 1000 K between 50.08 and 56 at. percent Se. The Gibbs energy of formation of the liquid from its pure liquid elements between 1000 and 1300K is essentially independent of temperature and falls between -36 and -38 kJ per gram atomic weight for 50 and 56 percent Se at 1200 and 1300K.

Description: The scientific success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and additional satellite-focused precipitation retrieval projects have paved the way for a more advanced global precipitation mission. A comprehensive global measuring strategy is currently under study - Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). The GPM study could ultimately lead to the development of the Global Precipitation Mission. The intent of GPM is to address looming scientific questions arising in the context of global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction and prediction of freshwater resources, the global carbon cycle, and biogeochemical cycles. This talk overviews the status and scientific agenda of this proposed mission currently planned for launch in the 2007-2008 time frame. GPM is planning to expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of 6-10 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like "core" satellite carry dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar and a microwave radiometer (e.g. TMI-like). The other constellation members will likely include new lightweight satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers. The goal behind the constellation is to achieve no worse than 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-su n -synchronous satellites with the "core" satellite providing measurement of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus "training calibrating" information to be used with the retrieval algorithms for the constellation satellite measurements. The GPM is organized internationally, currently involving a partnership between NASA in the US, NASDA in Japan, and ESA in Europe (representing the European community). The program is expected to involve additional international partners, other federal agencies, and a diverse collection of scientists from academia, government, and the private sector.

Description: Four cumulus parameterizations in the Penn State-NCAR model MM5 are compared in idealized sea-breeze simulations, with the aim of discovering why they work as they do. The most realistic results appear to be those using the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Rainfall is significantly delayed with the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, due to the method of computing the reference sounding. This method can be corrected, but downdrafts should be added in a physically realistic manner. Even without downdrafts, a corrected version of the BMJ scheme produces nearly the same timing and location of deep convection as the KF scheme, despite the very different physics. In order to simulate the correct timing of the rainfall, a minimum amount of mass is required in the layer that is the source of a parameterized updraft. The Grell parameterization, in the present simulation, always derives the updraft from the top of the mixed layer, where vertical advection predominates over horizontal advection in increasing the moist static energy. This makes the application of the quasi-equilibrium closure more correct than it would be if the updrafts were always derived from the most unstable layer, but it evades the question of whether or not horizontal advection generates instability. Using different physics, the parameterizations produce significantly different cloud-top heights.

Description: The geographic sources of water for the large-scale North American monsoon in a GCM are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water'sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American i'vionsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of warm season precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Description: British Airways flight data recorders can provide valuable meteorological information, but they are not available in real-time on the Global Telecommunication System. Information from the flight recorders was used in the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS) experiment as independent observations to estimate errors in wind analyses produced by major operational centers. The GADS impact on the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) analyses was investigated using GEOS-1 DAS version. Recently, a new Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard. Using fvDAS , the, GADS impact on analyses and forecasts was investigated. It was shown the GADS data intensify wind speed analyses of jet streams for some cases. Five-day forecast anomaly correlations and root mean squares were calculated for 300, 500 hPa and SLP for six different areas: Northern and Southern Hemispheres, North America, Europe, Asia, USA These scores were obtained as averages over 21 forecasts from January 1998. Comparisons with scores for control experiments without GADS showed a positive impact of the GADS data on forecasts beyond 2-3 days for all levels at the most areas.

Description: A new remote sensing instrument, the Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) has been built for use on the ER-2 aircraft. The first deployment for CPL was the SAFARI-2000 field campaign during August-September 2000. The CPL is a three-wavelength lidar designed for studies of cirrus, subvisual cirrus, and boundary layer aerosols. The CPL utilizes a high repetition rate, low pulse energy laser with photon counting detectors. A brief description of the CPL instrument will be given, followed by examples of CPL data products. In particular, examples of aerosol backscatter, including boundary layer smoke and cirrus clouds will be shown. Resulting optical depth estimates derived from the aerosol measurements will be shown. Comparisons of the CPL optical depth and optical depth derived from microPulse Lidar and the AATS-14 sunphotomer will be shown.

Description: The micro-pulse lidar system (MPL) was developed in the early 1990s and was the first small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar built for full time monitoring of cloud and aerosol vertical distributions. In 2000, a new project using MPL systems was started at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This new project, the Micro-pulse Lidar Network or MPL-Net, was created to provide long-term observations of aerosol and cloud vertical profiles at key sites around the world. This is accomplished using both NASA operated sites and partnerships with other organizations owning MPL systems. The MPL-Net sites are co-located with NASA AERONET sunphotometers to provide aerosol optical depth data needed for calibration of the MPL. In addition to the long-term sites, MPL-Net provides lidar support for a limited number of field experiments and ocean cruises each year. We will present an overview of the MPL-Net project and show initial results from the first two MPL-Net sites at the South Pole and at Goddard Space Flight Center. Observations of dust layers transported from the Gobi desert, across the Pacific Ocean, to the east coast of the United States will also be shown. MPL-Net affiliated instruments were in place at the desert source region in China, on a research vessel in the Sea of Japan, at ARM sites in Alaska and Oklahoma, and finally at our home site in Maryland (GSFC) during the massive dust storms that occurred in April 2001. The MPL observations of dust layers at each location are shown in comparison to dust layers predicted using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). Finally, the MPL-Net project is the primary ground-validation program for the Geo-Science Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) satellite lidar project (launch date 2002). We will present an overview demonstrating how MPL-Net results are used to help prepare the GLAS data processing algorithms and assist in the calibration/validation of the GLAS data products.

Description: A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob also identifies subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, excluding the eyewall (at least in an azimuthal mean sense), subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation cannot, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller contributions coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

Description: We give an overview of the research at NASA in assimilating tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments. Global analyses currently contain order-one errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. We show that an effective strategy to assimilate tropical rainfall data is to use observations to compensate for errors in moisture tendencies produced by the assimilation model. Results show that assimilating TMI and SSM/I surface rainrates and TPW estimates improves shortrange forecasts and reduces state-dependent systematic errors in the hydrological cycle and related climate parameters such as cloud, radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. The study provides a demonstration of the potential of using rainfall and moisture observations derived from passive microwave instruments to improve the quality of 4-dimensional global datasets for climate analysis and weather forecasting applications.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has completed three years in orbit. A summary of research highlights will be presented focusing on application of TRMM data to topics ranging from climate analysis, through improving forecasts, to microphysical research. Monthly surface rainfall estimates over the ocean based on different instruments on TRMM currently differ by 20%. The difference is not surprising considering the different type of observations available for the first time from TRMM with both the passive and active microwave sensors. Resolving this difference will strengthen the validity and utility of ocean rainfall estimates and is the topic of ongoing research utilizing various facets of the TRMM validation and field experiment programs. The TRMM rainfall estimates are intercompared among themselves and with other estimates, including those of the standard, monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis. The GPCP analysis agrees roughly in magnitude with the passive microwave-based TRMM estimates which is not surprising considering GPCP over-ocean estimates are based on passive microwave observations. A three year TRMM rainfall climatology is presented based on the TRMM merged product, including anomaly fields related to the changing ENSO situation during the mission. Results of merging TRMM, other passive microwave observations, and geosynchronous infrared rainfall estimates into a global, tropical 3-hour time resolution analysis will also be described.

Description: Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Description: Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle and is a primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of latent heat release, which is accompanied by rainfall, modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics and in turn can impact midlatitude weather. This latent heat release is a consequence of phase changes between vapor, liquid, and solid water. Present largescale weather and climate models can simulate latent heat release only crudely, thus reducing their confidence in predictions on both global and regional scales. This paper represents the first attempt to use NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall information to estimate the four-dimensional structure of global monthly latent heating profiles over the global tropics from December 1997 to October 2000. The Goddard Convective-Stratiform. Heating (CSH) algorithm and TRMM precipitation radar data are used for this study. We will examine and compare the latent heating structures between 1997-1998 (winter) ENSO and 1998-2000 (non-ENSO). We will also examine over the tropics. The seasonal variation of heating over various geographic locations (i.e., oceanic vs continental; Indian oceans vs west Pacific; Africa vs S. America) will be also examined and compared. In addition, we will examine the relationship between latent heating (max heating level) and SST. The period of interest also coincides with several TRMM field campaigns that recently occurred over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and in the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed Q1 budgets from these experiments could provide a means of validating the retrieved profiles of latent heating from the CSH algorithm.

Description: Verification of a stratospheric ozone recovery remains a high priority for environmental research and policy definition. Models predict an ozone recovery at a much lower rate than the measured depletion rate observed to date. Therefore improved precision of the satellite and ground ozone observing systems are required over the long term to verify recovery. We have shown that validation of radiances is the most effective means for correcting absolute accuracy and long term drifts of backscatter type satellite measurements. This method by-passes the algorithms used for both satellite and ground based measurements which are normally used to validate and correct the satellite data. Validation of radiances will also improve all higher level data products derived from the satellite observations. Backscatter algorithms suffer from several errors such as unrepresentative a-priori data and air mass factor corrections. Radiance comparisons employ forward models but are inherently more accurate and than inverse (retrieval) algorithms. A new method for satellite validation is planned which will compliment measurements from the existing ground-based networks. This method will employ very accurate comparisons between ground based zenith sky radiances and satellite nadir radiances. These comparisons will rely heavily on the experience derived from the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) program which provided a reference standard of radiance measurements for SBUV/2, TOMS, and GOME. This new measurement program, called "Skyrad", employs two well established capabilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center, 1) the SSBUV calibration facilities and 2) the radiative transfer codes used for the TOMS and SBUV/2 algorithms and their subsequent refinements. Radiative transfer calculations show that ground based zenith sky and satellite nadir backscatter ultraviolet comparisons can be made very accurately under certain viewing conditions. The Skyrad instruments (SSBUV, Brewer spectrophotometers, and possibly others) will be calibrated and maintained to a precision of a few tenths of a percent. Skyrad data will then enable long term calibration of upcoming satellite instruments such as QuickTOMS. SBUV/2s and SCIAMACHY with a high degree of precision. This technique can be further employed to monitor the performance of future instruments such as GOME-2, OMI, and OMPS. Initial ground observations taken from Goddard Space Flight Center compared with radiative transfer calculations has indicated the feasibility of this method.

Description: A satellite infrared technique with passive microwave calibration has been developed for estimating convective and stratiform. rainfall. The Convective-Stratiform Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), has been applied to 30 min interval GOES infrared data and aggregated over seasonal and yearly periods over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. For the period Jan-April 1999, analysis revealed significant effects of local circulations (river breeze, land/sea breeze, mountain/valley) on both the total rainfall and it's diurnal cycle. Results compared well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from TOGA radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates revealed that the convective rain constituted 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. Estimates of the diurnal cycle (both total rainfall and convective/stratiform) for an area encompassing the Amazon Basin (3 x 10(exp 6) square km) were in phase with those from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, despite the latter's limited sampling. Results will be presented comparing the yearly (2000) diurnal cycle for large regions (including the Amazon Basin), and an intercomparison of January-March estimates for three years, 1999-2001. We hope to demonstrate the utility of using the TRMM PR observations as verification for infrared estimates of the diurnal cycle, and as verification of the apportionment of rainfall into convective and stratiform components.

Description: A decade ago, Stephens and Tsay provided an overview of the subject of absorption of solar radiation by clouds in the earth's atmosphere. They summarized the available evidence that pointed to disagreements between theoretical and observed values of cloud absorption (and reflection). At that time, a theoretician's approach (assuming perfect flux measurements) was adopted to test the model uncertainty under various hypotheses, such as the omitted large drops, excess absorbing aerosols, enhanced water vapor continuum absorption, and cloud inhomogeneity. Since then, several advances in theoretical work have been made, but a satisfactory answer for the discrepancy is still lacking. Now, we offer an experimentalist's approach (focusing on field, not laboratory) to examine the observational uncertainty under numerous field factors, such as the temperature dependence, attitude control, and sampling strategy in the spatial and spectral domain. Examples from recent field campaigns have pointed out that these sources of error may be responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., as large as 20 W/square m). We give examples of each, discuss their contribution to overall uncertainty in shortwave absorption, and suggest a coordinated approach to their solution.

Description: The NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) participated in the Water Vapor IOP 2000 (WVIOP2000) and ARM FIRE Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX) at the DOE SGP CART site in northern Oklahoma. These experiments occurred during the period of September and December, 2000. The goals of both the WVIOP2000 and AFWEX were to better characterize the water vapor measurement capability of numerous sensors in the lower atmosphere and upper troposphere, respectively. The SRL received several hardware upgrades in anticipation of these experiments that permitted improved measurements of water vapor during the daytime and in the upper troposphere (UT). The daytime SRL water vapor error statistics were demonstrated a factor of 2-3 improvement compared to the permanently stationed CART Raman lidar (CARL). The performance of the SRL in the UT showed improvements as well. The technological upgrades that permitted these improved SRL measurements could also be implemented in the CARL system. Data examples demonstrating the new daytime and upper tropospheric measurement capability of the SRL will be shown at the meeting. In addition, preliminary analysis will be presented on several topics: 1) inter comparison of the water vapor measurements for several water vapor sensors including SRL, CARL, the NASA/Langley Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) flown onboard the NASA DC-8, in-situ sensors flown on the DC-8, and the Max Planck Institute Differential Absorption Lidar 2) comparison of cirrus cloud measurements using SRL and CARL and 3) case studies of meteorological events that occurred during the IOPs such as a cold frontal passage on the night of September 23.

Description: The major objective of this study is to investigate the momentum budgets associated with several convective systems that developed during the TOGA COARE IOP (west Pacific warm pool region) and GATE (east Atlantic region). The tool for this study is the improved Goddard Cumulas Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, explicit cloud radiative interactive processes and air-sea interactive surface processes. The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (with 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km) in the vertical. The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations were performed over a 7-day time period (December 19-26, 1992, for TOGA COARE and September 1-7, 1994 for GATE). Cyclic literal boundary conditions are required for this type of long-term integration. Two well organized squall systems (TOGA, COARE February 22, 1993, and GATE September 12, 1994) were also simulated using the 3D GCE model. Only 9 h simulations were required to cover the life time of the squall systems. the lateral boundary conditions were open for these two squall systems simulations. the following will be examined: (1) the momentum budgets in the convective and stratiform regions, (2) the relationship between momentum transport and cloud organization (i.e., well organized squall lines versus less organized convective), (3) the differences and similarities in momentum transport between 2D and 3D simulated convective systems, and (4) the differences and similarities in momentum budgets between cloud systems simulated with open and cyclic lateral boundary conditions. Preliminary results indicate that there are only small differences between 2D and 3D simulated momentum budgets. Major differences occur, however, between momentum budgets associated with squall systems simulated using different lateral boundary conditions.

Description: A method to retrieve water vapor column using the 940-nm water vapor absorption band in dry Arctic conditions is presented. The retrievals with this method are stable with respect to uncertainties in instrument radiometric calibration, air pressure, solar source function, and aerosols. The water vapor column was retrieved with this method using spectra obtained with the rotating shadowband spectroradiometer (RSS) that was deployed during an intensive observation period near Barrow, Alaska, in March 1999. A line-by-line radiative transfer model was used to compute water vapor transmittance. The retrievals with this method are compared with retrievals obtained from three independent measurements with microwave radiometers. All four measurements show the same pattern of temporal variations. The RSS results agree most closely with retrievals obtained with the millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) at its 183 GHz +/- 7 double-side band channel. Their correlation over a period of 7 days when water vapor column varied between 0.75 mm and 3.6 mm (according to RSS) is 0.968 with MIR readings 0.12 mm higher on average.

Description: Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

Description: We review applications of 3D radiative transfer in the atmosphere, emphasizing the wide spectrum of scales important to remote sensing and modeling of cloud fields, and the characteristic scales introduced into observed radiances and fluxes by the distribution of photon pathlengths at conservative and absorbing wavelengths. We define the "plane-parallel bias", which is a measure of the importance of 3D cloud structure in large-scale models, and the "independent pixel errors" that quantify the significance of 3D effects in remote sensing, and emphasize their relative magnitude and scale dependence. A variety of approaches in current use in 3D radiative transfer, and issues of speed, accuracy, and flexibility are summarized. We also describe a recently initiated "International Intercomparison of 3-Dimensional Radiation Codes", or I3RC. I3RC is a 3-phase effort that has as its goals to: (1) understand the errors and limits of 3D methods; (2) provide "baseline" cases for future 3D code development; (3) promote sharing of 3D tools; (4) derive guidelines for 3D tool selection; and (5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D radiative transfer. Selected results from Phases 1 and 2 of I3RC are discussed. These are taken from five cloud fields: a 1D field of bar clouds, a 2D radar-derived field, a 3D Landsat-derived field, a stratiform cloud from the model of C. Moeng, and a convective cloud from the model of B. Stevens. Computations have been carried out for three monochromatic wavelengths (one conservative, one absorptive, and one thermal) and two solar zenith angles (0, 60 degrees).

Description: A key to predicting climate change is to observe an understand the global distribution of clouds and their physical properties such as optical thickness and droplet size. Since clouds change rapidly over short time and space intervals, they are difficult to simulate in computer models. But it is essential that global climate models predict realistic spatial and temporal distribution of cloud optical depth. The best way to verify these distributions is to infer optical depth from global coverage satellite data. However, satellite methods have many sources of uncertainty; thus, independent and reliable ground-based estimates are essential for validation. For aerosol, there is the AERONET - a ground based monitoring network that consists of identical multi-channel radiometers for assessing aerosol optical properties and validating their satellite retrievals. In addition to AEROSOL, we want the network monitoring CLOUD optical properties. It will use AERONET "time" (inappropriate for aerosol studies) to make basic new measurements related to cloud physics. In the presentation we will report on a new technique that retrieves cloud optical thickness for even broken clouds above green vegetation from surface measurements of zenith radiance in the visible (VIS) and near-IR (NIR) spectral regions. The idea of the method is simple: since green vegetation reflects 40-50% of incoming radiation in the NIR and only 5-10% in the VIS region, ground measurements under thin clouds have little spectral contrast between VIS and NIR, while thick clouds reflect much more of the surface-reflected radiation in the NIR than in VIS. Based on this idea, we use a combination of measurements (spectral indices) in VIS and NIR to estimate cloud optical thickness. By analogy with NDVI, the simplest index that can be defined is the Normalized Difference Cloud Index (NDCI) which is a ratio between the difference and the sum of two radiances measured for two narrow spectral bands in VIS and NIR.

Description: MODIS is an earth-viewing cross-track scanning spectroradiometer launched on the Terra satellite in December 1999. MODIS scans a swath width sufficient to provide nearly complete global coverage every two days from a polar orbiting, sun-synchronous, platform at an altitude of 705 kilometers, and provides images in 36 spectral bands between 0.415 and 14.235 micrometers with spatial resolutions of 250 meters (2 bands), 500 meters (5 bands) and 1000 meters (29 bands). These bands have been carefully selected to enable advanced studies of land, ocean, and atmospheric processes. In this presentation we review the comprehensive set of remote sensing algorithms that have been developed for the remote sensing of atmospheric properties using MODIS data, placing primary emphasis on the principal atmospheric applications of (i) developing a cloud mask for distinguishing clear sky from clouds, (ii) retrieving global cloud radiative and microphysical properties, including cloud top pressure and temperature, effective emissivity, cloud optical thickness, thermodynamic phase, and effective radius, (iii) monitoring tropospheric aerosol optical thickness over the land and ocean and aerosol size distribution over the ocean, (iv) determining atmospheric profiles of moisture and temperature, and (v) estimating column water amount. The physical principles behind the determination of each of these atmospheric products will be described, together with an example of their application using MODIS observations. All products are archived into two categories: pixel-level retrievals (referred to as Level-2 products) and global gridded products at a latitude and longitude resolution of 1 degree (Level-3 products). An overview of the MODIS atmosphere algorithms and products, status, validation activities, and early level-2 and -3 results will be presented.

Description: An algorithm is developed for the gamma-weighted discrete ordinate two-stream approximation that computes profiles of domain-averaged shortwave irradiances for horizontally inhomogeneous cloudy atmospheres. The algorithm assumes that frequency distributions of cloud optical depth at unresolved scales can be represented by a gamma distribution though it neglects net horizontal transport of radiation. This algorithm is an alternative to the one used in earlier studies that adopted the adding method. At present, only overcast cloudy layers are permitted.

Description: The processes controlling production of ice crystals in deep, rapidly ascending convective columns are poorly understood due to the difficulties involved with either modeling or in situ sampling of these violent clouds. A large number of ice crystals are no doubt generated when droplets freeze at about -40 C. However, at higher levels, these crystals are likely depleted due to precipitation and detrainment. As the ice surface area decreases, the relative humidity can increase well above ice saturation, resulting in bursts of ice nucleation. We will present simulations of these processes using a large-eddy simulation model with detailed microphysics. Size bins are included for aerosols, liquid droplets, ice crystals, and mixed-phase (ice/liquid) hydrometers. Microphysical processes simulated include droplet activation, freezing, melting, homogeneous freezing of sulfate aerosols, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. We are focusing on the importance of ice nucleation events in the upper part of the cloud at temperatures below -40 C. We will show that the ultimate evolution of the cloud in this region (and the anvil produced by the convection) is sensitive to these ice nucleation events, and hence to the composition of upper tropospheric aerosols that get entrained into the convective column.

Description: The visual, radar, and lightning characteristics of a severe thunderstorm that spawned a large F3 tornado near Almena, Kansas, on 3 June 1999 are documented. The storm is interesting in that it transitioned from a low-precipitation to classic supercell, then back to low-precipitation supercell again prior to dissipation after sunset. Remarkably, the storm produced only 17 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes during its 4.5 h lifetime, despite VIL values reaching 95 kg/sq m, reflectivities of 50 dBZ or greater at altitudes of 14 km, and baseball-size hail at the surface. In contrast, total lightning rates inferred from a portable lightning detector during the large tornado were very high, approximately 100/min as expected for a storm of this size and intensity.

Description: Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for "named storms," tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 1950 suggest that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity. Consequently, the outlook for the 2001 hurricane season and immediately succeeding seasons is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above their long-term median rates, especially when the season is designated non-El Nino-related. Only when the season is designated El Nino-related does it appear likely that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Description: The first Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit temperature sounder (AMSU-A) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite on 13 May 1998. The AMSU-A's higher spatial and radiometric resolutions provide more useful information on the strength of the middle and upper tropospheric warm cores associated with tropical cyclones than have previous microwave temperature sounders. The gradient wind relationship suggests that the temperature gradient near the core of tropical cyclones increases nonlinearly with wind speed. We recast the gradient wind equation to include AMSU-A derived variables. Stepwise regression is used to determine which of these variables is most closely related to maximum sustained winds (V(sub max)). The satellite variables investigated include the radially averaged gradients at two spatial resolutions of AMSU-A channels 1 through 10 T(sub b) data (delta(sub r)T(sub b)), the squares of these gradients, a channel 15 based scattering index (SI-89), and area averaged T(sub b). Calculations of Tb and delta(sub r)T(sub b) from mesoscale model simulations of Andrew reveal the effects of the AMSU spatial sampling on the cyclone warm core presentation. Stepwise regression of 66 AMSU-A terms against National Hurricane Center (NHC) V(sub max) estimates from the 1998 and 1999 Atlantic hurricane season confirms the existence of a nonlinear relationship between wind speed and radially averaged temperature gradients near the cyclone warm core. Of six regression terms, four are dominated by temperature information, and two are interpreted as correcting for hydrometeor contamination. Jackknifed regressions were performed to estimate the algorithm performance on independent data. For the 82 cases that had in situ measurements of V(sub max), the average error standard deviation was 4.7 m/s. For 108 cases without in situ wind data, the average error standard deviation was 7.5 m/s. Operational considerations, including the detection of weak cyclones and false alarm reduction are also discussed.

Description: An improved version of the Convective/Stratiform Technique (CST) and its application over Brazil are presented. Keeping the major components of traditional CST, we have modified the scheme for classing convective and stratiform rainfall and tested various schemes to eliminate non-raining cirrus clouds. The parameters of the technique are calibrated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-sensor observations, including TMI, PR and Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). This technique takes advantage of the high temporal sampling rate of geosynchronous infrared channel and the better instantaneous rain observation of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and PR. Moreover, sparse TMI rain estimates are used to dynamically calibrate the parameters of the technique to improve its performance. The technique is applied to make rainfall estimates on various time scales and to study rainfall statistics such as the distributions of rain intensity and storm duration over a four-month period beginning January 1999. The study period coincides with the TRMM/Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere experiment in Amazonia (LBA) ground validation experiment, and observations from the LBA radar are used to validate the technique. Results show the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation over the LBA area, and are compared to radar data from the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar. When the larger geographic region is considered, the analysis of the mean hourly estimates revealed the pronounced effects of rivers, topography and local circulations on the rainfall.

Description: Many studies have tried to relate ENSO and global precipitation. This work examines changes in precipitation pattern, amount and intensity during ENSO events over the past 20+ years, using satellite-gauge merged data sets. ENSOs vary in duration and may peak at different times of the year. In this way, compositing events into seasons, such as onset, mature, and decay, is a challenge. This study will explore the sensitivity of using fixed versus variable month seasons to describe El Ninos and La Ninas. Global precipitation patterns will be shown. Both increases and decreases in rainfall are observed during ENSO, and there are more extreme and less 'normal' rain rates (i.e. a greater occurrence of drought and flood) in space and time. In the Southern Hemisphere during ENSO there is a spiral pattern of precipitation anomalies, centered at the pole, that agrees with previous studies looking at model-generated surface pressure. This study also examines the evolution of precipitation and SST in the tropical Pacific. The relation between the Maritime Continent convection center and the underlying surface temperatures of the islands will also be explored. An examination of the evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry area surrounding Indonesia, preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean, 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. A similar time line of onset was observed during the 1982-83 El Nino. These two events were comparable in strength and timing during the annual cycle. However, in the 1982-83 event the warming at the surface first appeared in the central Pacific, whereas in the 1997-98 event the warming first emerged off the coast of Peru. In both events the positive precipitation anomalies were first observed in the central Pacific, moving to the east Pacific within a month or two.

Description: Cloud radiative properties are sensitive to drop size and other parameters of cloud micro-structure, but also to cloud shape, spacing, and other parameters of cloud macro-structure, including internal fractal structure. New information on cloud structure is being derived from a variety of cloud radars and lidars. Ongoing field programs such as DoE/ARM are improving the measurement and modelling of physical and radiative properties of clouds. A parallel effort is underway to improve cloud remote sensing, especially from the new suite of EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments which are beginning to provide higher spectral, spatial resolution, and/or angular resolution. Key parameters for improving pixel-scale retrievals are cloud thickness and photon mean-free-path, which together determine the scale of "radiative smoothing" of cloud fluxes and radiances. This scale has been observed as a change in the spatial spectrum of Landsat cloud radiances, and was also recently found with the Goddard micropulse lidar, by searching for returns from directions nonparallel to the incident beam. "Offbeam" Lidar returns are now being used to estimate the cloud "radiative Green's function", (G). G depends on cloud thickness and may be used to retrieve that important quantity. G is also being applied to improving simple estimates of cloud radiative properties that are based on the "Independent Pixel Approximation" or IPA. This and other measurements of 3D transfer in clouds, coupled with Monte Carlo and other 3D transfer methods, are beginning to provide a better understanding of the dependence of radiation on cloud inhomogeneity, and to suggest new retrieval and parameterization algorithms which take account of cloud inhomogeneity. An international "Intercomparison of 3D Radiation Codes" or I3RC, program is underway to coordinate and evaluate the variety of 3D radiative transfer methods now available, and to make them more widely available. Information is on the Web at: http://climate.gsfc.nasa.gov/I3RC. Input consists of selected cloud fields derived from data sources such as radar, microwave and satellite, and from models involved in the GEWEX Cloud Systems Studies. Output is selected radiative quantities that characterize the large-scale properties of the fields of radiative fluxes and heating. Several example cloud fields will be used to illustrate the effects of cloud inhomogeneity and 3D radiation.

Description: The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations are also compared with the GPCP analyses and are evaluated with regard to improving the long-term GPCP data set.

Description: We have used the solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) flight instrument with the Ames 25 meter base-path White cell to obtain about 20 moderate resolution (8 nm) pure water vapor spectra from 650 to 1650 nm, with absorbing paths from 806 to 1506 meters and pressures up to 14 torr. We also obtained a set at 806 meters with several different air-broadening pressures. Model simulations were made for the 940, 1130, and 1370 nm absorption bands for some of these laboratory conditions using the Rothman, et al HITRAN-2000 linelist. This new compilation of HITRAN includes new intensity measurements for the 940 nm region. We compared simulations for our spectra of this band using HITRAN-2000 with simulations using the prior HITRAN-1996. The simulations of the 1130 nm band show about 10% less absorption than we measured. There is some evidence that the total intensity of this band is about 38% stronger than the sum of the HITRAN line intensities in this region. In our laboratory conditions the absorption depends approximately on the square root of the intensity. Thus, our measurements agree that the band is stronger than tabulated in HITRAN, but by about 20%, substantially less than the published value. Significant differences have been shown between Doppler-limited resolution spectra of the 1370 nm band obtained at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and HITRAN simulations. Additional new intensity measurements in this region are continuing to be made. We expect the simulations of our SSFR lab data of this band will show the relative importance of improving the HITRAN line intensities of this band for atmospheric measurements.

Description: A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Description: Measuring the magnitude and variability of oceanic net primary productivity (NPP) represents a key advancement toward our understanding of the dynamics of marine ecosystems and the role of the ocean in the global carbon cycle. MODIS observations make two new contributions in addition to continuing the bio-optical time series begun with Orbview-2's SeaWiFS sensor. First, MODIS provides weekly estimates of global ocean net primary productivity on weekly and annual time periods, and annual empirical estimates of carbon export production. Second, MODIS provides additional insight into the spatial and temporal variations in photosynthetic efficiency through the direct measurements of solar-stimulated chlorophyll fluorescence. The two different weekly productivity indexes (first developed by Behrenfeld & Falkowski and by Yoder, Ryan and Howard) are used to derive daily productivity as a function of chlorophyll biomass, incident daily surface irradiance, temperature, euphotic depth, and mixed layer depth. Comparisons between these two estimates using both SeaWiFS and MODIS data show significant model differences in spatial distribution after allowance for the different integration depths. Both estimates are strongly dependence on the accuracy of the chlorophyll determination. In addition, an empirical approach is taken on annual scales to estimate global NPP and export production. Estimates of solar stimulated fluorescence efficiency from chlorophyll have been shown to be inversely related to photosynthetic efficiency by Abbott and co-workers. MODIS provides the first global estimates of oceanic chlorophyll fluorescence, providing an important proof of concept. MODIS observations are revealing spatial patterns of fluorescence efficiency which show expected variations with phytoplankton photo-physiological parameters as measured during in-situ surveys. This has opened the way for research into utilizing this information to improve our understanding of oceanic NPP variability. Deriving the ocean bio-optical properties places severe demands on instrument performance (especially band to band precision) and atmospheric correction. Improvements in MODIS instrument characterization and calibration over the first 16 mission months have greatly improved the accuracy of the chlorophyll input fields and FLH, and therefore the estimates of NPP and fluorescence efficiency. Annual estimates now show the oceanic NPP accounts for 40-50% of the global total NPP, with significant interannual variations related to large scale ocean processes. Spatial variations in ocean NPP, and exported production, have significant effects on exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. Further work is underway to improve both the primary productivity model functions, and to refine our understanding of the relationships between fluorescence efficiency and NPP estimates. We expect that the MODIS instruments will prove extremely useful in assessing the time dependencies of oceanic carbon uptake and effects of iron enrichment, within the global carbon cycle.

Description: Recent reports of a retreating and thinning sea ice cover in the Arctic have pointed to a strong suggestion of significant warming in the polar regions. It is especially important to understand what these reports mean in light of the observed global warning and because the polar regions are expected to be most sensitive to changes in climate. To gain insight into this phenomenon, co-registered ice concentrations and surface temperatures derived from two decades of satellite microwave and infrared data have been processed and analyzed. While observations from meteorological stations indicate consistent surface warming in both regions during the last fifty years, the last 20 years of the same data set show warming in the Arctic but a slight cooling in the Antarctic. These results are consistent with the retreat in the Arctic ice cover and the advance in the Antarctic ice cover as revealed by historical satellite passive microwave data. Surface temperatures derived from satellite infrared data are shown to be consistent within 3 K with surface temperature data from the limited number of stations. While not as accurate, the former provides spatially detailed changes over the twenty year period. In the Arctic, for example, much of the warming occurred in the Beaufort Sea and the North American region in 1998 while slight cooling actually happened in parts of the Laptev Sea and Northern Siberia during the same time period. Big warming anomalies are also observed during the last five years but a periodic cycle of about ten years is apparent suggesting a possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the Antarctic, large interannual and seasonal changes are also observed in the circumpolar ice cover with regional changes showing good coherence with surface temperature anomalies. However, a mode 3 is observed to be more dominant than the mode 2 wave reported in the literature. Some of these spatial and temporal changes appear to be influenced by the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) and changes in coastal polynya activities.

Description: A novel approach is introduced to correlating urbanization and rainfall modification. This study represents one of the first published attempts (possibly the first) to identify and quantify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Previous investigations successfully used rain gauge networks and around-based radar to investigate this phenomenon but still encountered difficulties due to limited, specialized measurements and separation of topographic and other influences. Three years of mean monthly rainfall rates derived from the first space-based rainfall radar, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of data at half-degree latitude resolution enables identification of rainfall patterns around major metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Preliminary results reveal an average increase of 5.6% in monthly rainfall rates (relative to a mean upwind CONTROL area) over the metropolis but an average increase of approx. 28%, in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis. Some portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates found in the downwind impact area exceeded the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116% and were generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are quite consistent studies of St. Louis (e.g' METROMEX) and Chicago almost two decades ago and more recent studies in the Atlanta and Mexico City areas.

Description: Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.