ALBERT

Beschreibung: A meteorological overview of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A) flight series is presented. Synoptic analyses of mid-tropospheric circulation patterns are combined with isentropic back trajectory calculations to describe the long-range (400-3000 km) atmospheric transport mechanisms and pathways of air masses to the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions of North America during July and August 1988. Siberia and the northern Pacific Ocean were found to be the two most likely source areas for 3-day transport to the study areas in Alaska. Transport to the Barrow region was frequently influenced by polar vortices and associated short-wave troughs over the Arctic Ocean, while the Bethel area was most often affected by lows migrating across the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska, as well as ridges of high pressure which built into interior Alaska. July 1988 was warmer and dryer than normal over much of Alaska. As a result, the 1988 Alaska fire season was one of the most active of the past decade. Airborne lidar measurements verified the presence of biomass burning plumes on many flights, often trapped in thin subsidence layer temperature inversions. Several cases of stratosphere/troposphere exchange were noted, based upon potential vorticity analyses and aircraft lidar data, especially in the Barrow region and during transit flights to and from Alaska.

Beschreibung: The aerosol optical depth over the Konza Prairie, near Manhattan, Kansas, was recorded at various locations by five separate teams. These measurements were made in support of the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) and used to correct imagery from a variety of satellite and aircraft sensors for the effects of atmospheric scattering and absorption. The results from one instrument are reported here for 26 days in 1987 and for 7 in 1989. Daily averages span a range of 0.05 to 0.28 in the midvisible wavelengths. In addition, diurnal variations are noted in which the afternoon optical depths are greater than those of the morning by as much as 0.07. A comparison between instruments and processing techniques used to determine these aerosol optical depths is provided. The first comparisons are made using summer 1987 data. Differences of as much as 0.05 (midvisible) are observed. Although these data allow reasonable surface reflectance retrievals, they do not agree to within the performance limits typically associated with these types of instruments. With an accuracy goal of 0.02 a preseason calibration/comparison experiment was conducted at a mountain site prior to the final field campaign in 1989. Good calibration data were obtained, and good agreement (0.01, midvisible) was observed in the retrieved optical depth acquired over the Konza. By comparing data from the surface instruments at different locations, spatial inhomogeneities are determined. Then, data from the airborne tracking sunphotometer allow one to determine variations as a function of altitude. Finally, a technique is proposed for using the in situ data to establish an instrument calibration.

Beschreibung: The underlying mean and variance properties of surface net radiation, sensible-latent heat fluxes and soil heat flux are studied over the densely instrumented grassland region encompassing FIFE. Flux variability is discussed together with the problem of scaling up to area-averaged fluxes. Results are compared and contrasted for cloudy and clear situations and examined for the influence of surface-induced biophysical controls (burn and grazing treatments) and topographic controls (aspect ratios and slope factors).

Beschreibung: Airborne measurements of flux densities of carbon dioxide CO2, sensible heat, and latent heat (H2O) obtained over the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) site during three intensive field campaigns in 1987 and one in 1989 are examined to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of CO2 and energy transfer processes. These data were collected by the National Research Council Twin Otter using low-level flight patterns, all flown at constant pressure altitude during relatively clear days. The spatial variations are larger in 1989 than in 1987 and a higher correlation is observed between the fluxes and the surface features. The temporal patterns are easier to characterize with the relatively homogeneous situation of 1987. Functional relationships obtained between fluxes of CO2 and latent heat, CO2 fluxes and greenness index, latent heat fluxes and greenness index, and between sensible heat fluxes and surface air temperature differences are presented for one day in 1987 and one in 1989 as an example of the kind of information that can be obtained from grid flights at constant pressure altitude.

Beschreibung: Radiometric measurements at 90 GHz and three sideband frequencies near the peak water vapor absorption line of 183.3 GHz were made with Advanced Microwave Moisture Sounder (AMMS) aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the Global Aerosol Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) mission over the Pacific Ocean in November 1989. Some of the measurements over the high-latitude regions (greater than 50 deg N or 50 deg S) were analyzed for the retrieval of total precipitable water less than 0.5 g/sq cm both over land and ocean surfaces. The results show that total precipitable water from a relatively dry atmosphere could be estimated with high sensitivity from these radiometric measurements. The retrieved values over ocean surface show a decrease toward the polar region as expected. The retrieved total precipitable water over land correlates positively with the aircraft radar altitude. This positive correlation is expected because the aircraft radar altitude provides a measure of atmospheric water vapor burden above the surface. Retrieved high reflectivities over land surface at 90 GHz and 183 GHz are presumably related to snow cover on the ground. This suggests that radiometric measurements at these frequencies could be used to map snow at high-latitude regions.

Beschreibung: The vicinity of KSC, where the primary ground truth site of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) program is located, was the focal point of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment in July and Aug. 1991. In addition to several specialized radars, local coverage was provided by the C-band (5 cm) radar at Patrick AFB. Point measurements of rain rate were provided by tipping bucket rain gage networks. Besides these ground-based activities, airborne radar measurements with X- and Ka-band nadir-looking radars on board an aircraft were also recorded. A unique combination data set of airborne radar observations with ground-based observations was obtained in the summer convective rain regime of central Florida. We present a comparison of these data intending a preliminary validation. A convective rain event was observed simultaneously by all three instrument types on the evening of 27 July 1991. The high resolution aircraft radar was flown over convective cells with tops exceeding 10 km and observed reflectivities of 40 to 50 dBZ at 4 to 5 km altitude, while the low resolution surface radar observed 35 to 55 dBZ echoes and a rain gage indicated maximum surface rain rates exceeding 100 mm/hr. The height profile of reflectivity measured with the airborne radar show an attenuation of 6.5 dB/km (two way) for X-band, corresponding to a rainfall rate of 95 mm/hr.

Beschreibung: The Space Shuttle provides a unique perspective for cloud observation. From it, an observer can simulataneously view the grand scale and individual microscale components. An observer can differentiate between the exceptional and the routine and rapidly identify the phenomenon of interest. The capabilities include multiple aspect viewing, vision enhancement, instant data transmission, and the intelligence and decision-making ability required for meaningful selective observations. When these observations are used with other information, an improved understanding of the processes follows. Examples of these data and their application with other information sources are given along with suggestions for research.

Beschreibung: Flash rates measured from the Space Shuttle range from 27.8 flashes per minute to 77 flashes per minute. The cloud is an optically thick medium which effectively scatters the energy from a lightning discharge and thereby broadens the risetime and duration of each lightning pulse. Because of the small size, spacecraft sensors with resolutions of 1 km or more are unlikely to detect the individual lightning channels. Instead, the energy from the lightning channel is scattered within the cloud, thereby broadening the apparent area. All of these measurements of lightning flash area and flash rate have involved manual manipulation and analysis of the video or film data. Only a small percentage of the Space Shuttle lightning video has been analyzed. An attempt is made to combine the use of real-time digital disk system and an automated analysis routine in order to overcome this limitation and make processing of a sequence of video frames a much less labor-intensive task.

Beschreibung: A millimeter-wave imaging radiometer (MIR) developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is described. The MIR is a nine-channel total power radiometer developed for atmospheric research. Three dual-pass band channels are centered about the strongly opaque 183-GHz water vapor absorption line; the frequencies are 183 +/- 1, +/- 3, and +/- 7 GHz. Another channel is located on the wing of this band at 150 GHz. These four channels have varying degrees of opacity from which the water vapor profile can be inferred. The design and salient characteristics of this instrument are discussed, together with its expected benefits.

Beschreibung: A new generation of automatic sunphotometers is used to systematically monitor clear sky total column aerosol concentration and optical properties, precipitable water and total column ozone diurnally and annually in West Africa and South America. The instruments are designed to measure direct beam sun, solar aureole and sky radiances in nine narrow spectral bands from the UV to the near infrared on an hourly basis. The instrumentation and the algorithms required to reduce the data for subsequent analysis are described.

Beschreibung: The NOAA's Spaceflight Meteorology Group has used the point forecast output from the Global Profile Archive and Global Profile Archive since 1990, and found this product to allow forecasters to examine the MRF model in a vertical profile, and thereby determine how different model parameters behave over time. Attention is presently given to the use of these resources in the illustrative case of the STS-40 mission, over northwestern Spain.

Beschreibung: Passive microwave data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) were used to estimate the amount of rainfall in the June-August season for the regions of the southwest U.S. and Mexico, and the results are compared to rain-gauge observations and to IR climatologies of Maddox et al. (1992), using both the hourly IR data and IR data sampled at the time of the overpass of the SSM/I. A comparison of the microwave climatology with monthly rainfall measured by the climatological gage network over several states of western Mexico resulted in a 0.63 correlation and a large (482 mm) bias, due to sampling and the incongruity of rain gages and satellite estimates. A comparison between the IR and microwave data showed that the IR tended toward higher percentages along the coast compared to the microwave.

Beschreibung: From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Beschreibung: A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure, and the results are linked to microwave and infrared radiative transfer models for simulation of aircraft observations. Spaceborne radar data are also simulated along the aircraft flight track. The cloud and radiative model simulations are studied and compared with aircraft observations. The initial results indicate that the 3D cloud model is capable of simulating the major features of observed storm systems when given a representative atmospheric sounding to initialize the convective systems. The simulations of infrared and microwave radiances provide reasonably good comparisons with the observations.

Beschreibung: The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from ERBE wide-field-of-view (WFOV) and scanning sensor are compared with Nimbus-7 WFOV results. Monthly averaged OLR data from the ERBE WFOV instruments aboard the NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 polar orbiting satellites during the 3-year overlap period with Nimbus-7 are deconvolved using spherical harmonics. Results of a comparison of the data sets are presented on regional, zonal, and global scales in the spatial domain and on a monthly scale in the time domain.

Beschreibung: An effort is made to determine, on the basis of satellite imagery associated with a thunderstorm event: (1) the extent to which time-compositing would increase areal coverage and potential temperature and moisture profile measurements, as a function of time, and (2) the number of times that a given clear area could be sampled during a measurement sequence. This information would be of great value in more effectively using current data from the operational GOES satellites, and will assist in the planning of future operational and research geosynchronous missions.

Beschreibung: The NOAA has been preprocessing the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) IR and microwave channels to correct for cloud amount, spot size, and viewing angle. An examination is now being conducted of the 6-7 micron water vapor band; a preliminary evaluation is here presented of the regional and global features of this large data base on daily, monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. The TOVS archives allow large-scale climatological features to be established.

Beschreibung: The region of the IR spectrum that is ideally suited for detecting optically thin cirrus clouds is in the window between 10 and 13 microns. Here relatively weak absorption due to the water vapor lines and continuum is present and hence the extinction characteristic of the cloud particles is readily discernible. In order to demonstrate these properties, two IR spectra are presented, one with clear skies and one with an optically thin cirrus. As a result of the cloud particle extinction, an appreciable increase in the brightness temperature from 10 to 13 microns is observed. This decrease is found to be nearly linear in the case of the tropical thin cirrus, which is also geometrically thin. On the basis of radiative transfer simulations, it is inferred that the cloud particle size that can produce this spectral character has an effective diameter of about 12 microns, which is comparable to the wavelength of the radiation.

Beschreibung: Two contrasting representations of land surface variability used in general circulation models (GCMs) are compared through an analysis of their corresponding surface energy balance equations. In one representation (the 'mixture' approach), different vegetation types are assumed to be homogeneously mixed over a grid square, so that the GCM atmosphere sees near-surface conditions pertaining to the mixture only. In the second representation (the 'mosaic' approach), different vegetation types are viewed as separate 'tiles' of a grid-square 'mosaic', and each tile interacts with the atmosphere independently. The mosaic approach is computationally simpler and in many ways more flexible than the mixture approach. Analytical solutions to the linearized energy balance equations and numerical solutions to the nonlinear equations both demonstrate that the mixture strategy, when applied to two coexisting vegetation types that differ only in canopy transpiration resistance, promotes both total turbulent flux and latent heat flux relative to the mosaic strategy. The effective differences between the strategies, however, are small over a wide range of conditions. In particular, the strategies are effectively equivalent when the transpiration resistances of the different vegetation types are of the same order of magnitude.

Beschreibung: Results are presented of an investigation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and its impact on the extended-range forecast in the NMC operational model during Phase II (14 December 1986-31 March 1987) of the Dynamical Extended Range Forecast. Based on principal component analysis of the velocity potential and streamfunction, evidence was found of tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the ISO. The NMC model possess significant forecast skills for the principal streamfunction and velocity potential modes up to the first ten days. Results of the error growth analysis suggest that the principal modes of velocity potential have large errors comparable to the model random errors. By comparison, the initial errors in the streamfunction are much smaller. The error growth for both tropical and extratropical modes are found to be significantly suppressed during periods of strong ISO relative to periods of weak ISO. The increase in extratropical forecast skill is likely due to (1) the model's ability to better capture ISO signals in the tropics and (2) the increased coupling between the tropics and extratropics during periods of strong ISO.

Beschreibung: The flow of an incompressible, stratified fluid over an obstacle will produce an oscillation in which buoyancy is the restoring force, called a gravity wave. For disturbances of this scale, the atmosphere may be treated as incompressible; and even the linear approximation will explain many of the phenomena observed in the lee of mountains. However, nonlinearities arise in two ways: (1) through the large (scaled) size of the mountain, and (2) from dynamically singular levels in the fluid field. These produce a complicated array of phenomena that present hazards to aircraft and to lee surface areas. If there is no dynamic barrier, these waves can penetrate vertically into the middle atmosphere (30-100 km attitude), where recent observations show them to be of a length scale that must involve the Coriolis force in any modeling. At these altitudes, the amplitude of the waves is very large, and the waves are studied with a view to their potential impact on the projected National Aerospace Plane. This paper presents the results of analyses and state-of-the-art numerical simulations, validated where possible by observational data.

Beschreibung: A simulation of the July 11, 1988 thunderstorm near Denver, which produced a microburst of unusual intensity during the test operation of the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar system is carried out using the Terminal Area Simulation System also known as the NASA-Langley Windshear Model. The results show the evolution and structure of the storm, including hazard indices based on F-factor. Results of simulation show that the storm is of unusual structure, producing multiple low- to moderate-reflectivity microbursts formed downshear of the main precipitation shaft. The most intense of the microbursts contains a velocity differential exceeding 40 m/s, strong downdrafts, and hazardous windshear with F-factors approaching 0.2. A comparison with observations, including Doppler radar measurements and aircraft flight data, indicates that the model can proivide information that is not always apparent from observed data.

Beschreibung: Linear instability calculations are presented to support the contention that part of the excitation of the 4-d wave could be due to baroclinic instability at the winter stratopause. The theoretical structure of this instability is investigated with a linear stability analysis of the August average zonal mean state.

Beschreibung: The global distributions of upper tropospheric relative humidity derived from the archived SAGE II water vapor data set are presented. For both summer and winter months, vertical profiles of zonal mean relative humidity are derived for each of the six 20-deg latitude bands covering 60 deg N - 60 deg S. Some examples of global maps of upper tropospheric relative humidity are shown to illustrate the relationship between moist areas and convective activity.

Beschreibung: A 3D mechanistic, primitive-equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere is coupled to an offline spectral transport model. The dynamics model is initialized with and forced by observations so that the coupled models may be used to study specific episodes. Results are compared with those obtained by transport online in the dynamics model. Although some differences are apparent, the results suggest that coupling of the models to a comprehensive photochemical package will provide a useful tool for studying the evolution of constituents in the middle atmosphere during specific episodes.

Beschreibung: Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Beschreibung: Updated information is presented on the U.S./Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which is a relatively low-budget earth-probe satellite with a secondary objective of measuring upwelling radiation from the clouds and the surfaces below the satellite. Particular attention is given to the TRMM rain measurements and the characteristics of the three TRMM rain measuring instruments: the microwave radiometer, the radar, and the visible/IR radiometer. Also discussed are the TRMM contributions to EOS and GEWEX.

Beschreibung: The paper describes determinations of atmospheric profiles from space-based radio measurements and the retrieval methodology used, with special attention given to the measurement procedure and the characteristics of the soundings. It is speculated that reliable profiles of the terrestrial atmosphere can be obtained by the occultation technique from the surface to a height of about 60 km. With the full complement of 21 the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and one GPS receiver in sun synchronous polar orbit, a maximum of 42 soundings could be obtained for each complete orbit or about 670 per day, providing almost uniform global coverage.

Beschreibung: Experimental data are presented on dual-wavelength scattering characteristics of subtropical rain observed during the convection and precipitation/electrification (CaPE) experiment. Linear depolarization ratios (LDRs) are calculated at both X-band and Ka-band channels. In stratiform rain, the cross-polarized return signal is generally below the noise level except within the melting layer where the maximum LDR at both frequencies is typically between -12 and -10 dB. In convective rain the range profiles of the LDR in X-band and those in Ka-band do not coincide. The X-band LDR values in convective rain typically remain smaller than -25 dB at high altitudes and take somewhat larger values of -25 to -15 dB at low altitudes. The Ka-band LDR values, in contrast, typically increase with radar range, sometimes reaching a level of -3 dB just before the cross-polarized signal falls below the noise level. Such high values of LDR in Ka-band are most likely attributable to multiple scattering effects.

Beschreibung: Measurements were made of a suite of photochemically active trace species (including light hydrocarbons, ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, HNO3, NO3(-), NO(x), and NO(y)) in marine air collected during a 10-day period in April and May 1985 at Point Arena (California), a coastal inflow site. It was found that the mixing ratios of the alkanes, ozone, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and HNO3 correlated with variations in the origins of calculated air parcel trajectories and with variations in the ratios of the light alkanes. The highest levels of alkanes and the photochemical products were found in parcels that had been rapidly transported across the North Pacific Ocean from near the 600-mbar level above the east Asian coast. It is suggested that production over the continents, transport to the marine areas, and parallel removal processes account for much of the observed correlation.

Beschreibung: Surface radiation budget data are presented for the midseasonal months of July and October of 1983 and January and April of 1984. These data allow the examination of geographical and seasonal variations of the entire surface radiation budget from pole to pole. The latest flux estimation techniques have been used along with data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Regional, zonal, and hemispheric distributions of the downward and net components of both shortwave and longwave fluxes and of the net total surface fluxes are determined. Seasonal flux variation per region, expressed as flux range, is illustrated for these components also. The estimated fluxes appear to be accurate to about 16 W/sq m on a global average, based on sensitivity analyses and comparisons with ground data. An analysis of flux errors showed that most of the error was attributable to errors in input data.

Beschreibung: The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, where the FOV is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (FOV = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above idea, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km FOV from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Beschreibung: A general discussion of the influence of the greenhouse effect on the earth's climate is given. The sources and sinks of the various greenhouse gases are discussed.

Beschreibung: The effective radar reflectivity Ze measured by a radar is the convolution of the actual distribution of reflectivity with the beam radiation pattern. Because of the nonlinearity between Z and rain rate R, Ze gives a biased estimator of R whenever the reflectivity field is nonuniform. In the presence of sharp horizontal reflectivity gradients, the measured pattern of Ze extends beyond the actual precipitation boundaries to produce false precipitation echoes. When integrated across the radar image of the storm, the false echo areas contribute to the sum to produce overestimates of the areal rainfall. As the range or beamwidth increases, the ratio of measured to actual rainfall increases. Beyond some range, the normal decrease of reflectivity with height dominates and the measured rainfall underestimates the actual amount.

Beschreibung: The interaction between the tropics and middle latitudes is studied using a tracer emitted at 50 hPa along a great circle route between Los Angeles, USA and Sydney, Australia. Though designed to examine the impact of stratospheric aircraft, the study more generally addresses the transport between tropics and middle latitudes for a three month period from January through March 1989. The results show that air is transported from the tropics to middle latitudes by planetary scale and tropospheric cyclonic scale waves. Except for intrusions by these wave events, the tropics are substantially isolated throughout the lower stratosphere. These waves draw material out of the tropics which ends up in the middle latitude westerly jets, with little material entering the winter polar latitudes prior to the springtime transition. The summer Southern Hemisphere is characterized by tracer being drawn out in streamers that extend from north and west to south and east. The material in the tropics is zonally asymmetric. The material that reaches the troposphere comes down in the synoptic scale eddies and is concentrated in the middle latitude jet stream. These characteristics are similar to those observed during the dispersion of volcanic clouds.

Beschreibung: Measurements of aircraft longitude, latitude, and velocity, and measurements of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and horizontal wind from the meteorological measurement system (MMS) on board the NASA ER-2 aircraft were compared with independent measurements of these quantities from radiosondes and radar tracking of both the ER-2 and radiosonde balloons. In general, the comparisons were good and within the expected measurement accuracy and natural variability of the meteorological parameters. Radar tracking of the ER-2 resolved the velocity and position drift of the inertial navigation system (INS). The rms errors in the horizontal velocity components of the ER-2, due to INS errors, were found to be 0.5 m/s. The magnitude of the drift in longitude and latitude depends on the sign and magnitude of the corresponding component velocity drift and can be a few hundredths of a degree. The radar altitudes of the ER-2 and radiosondes were used as the basis for comparing measurements of atmospheric pressure, temperature, and horizontal wind from these two platforms. The uncertainty in the MMS horizontal wind measurement is estimated to be +/- 2.5 m/s. The accuracy of the MMS pressure and temperature measurements were inferred to be +/- 0.3 hPa and +/- 0.3 K.

Beschreibung: Recent observations of rare cloud-to-stratospheric lightning discharges suggest the events are inherently 'slow-rising', with the emitted energy reaching peak values in about 10 milliseconds. Applying a dipole radiation model, it is demonstrated that the emitted radio wave energy from such slow-rising events is strongest below about 50 Hz, and possesses a significant rolloff at higher frequencies. In the analysis, various current distributions are considered in order to determine the effect on the radio spectrum. Near 10 kHz, the emission from cloud-to-stratospheric lightning is significantly reduced as compared to the typical cloud-to-ground return stroke, with amplitudes as much as 50 dB lower. This result may explain the lack of detection of VLF signals from recently observed long-lasting discharge events.

Beschreibung: This study modifies the 1D PBL model of Zhang and Anthes (1982) to account more explicitly for the effects of a vegetation layer. New equations for the latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes, reformulated in terms of vegetation parameters are substituted into the model. The model produces good agreement with observations over a wide range of conditions: for wet, high-vegetation conditions, and for dry, low-vegetation conditions in both the winter and the summer.

Beschreibung: The current theoretical and observational understanding of the roles of the hydrological cycle in the climate system and its intimate connection to the energy cycle is evaluated. An attempt is made to show why the hydrological cycle has emerged as the central element in studies of climate change and to anticipate the main advances expected in modeling and observations in the coming decade.

Beschreibung: Global relationships among the earth's radiation budget, cloudiness, solar constant, volcanic aerosols, and surface temperature are analyzed using data obtained by the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. It was found that these parameters were interrelated on interannual time scales, demonstrating that the interannual variability in the earth's climate (i.e., radiation budget) is detectable and observable by current spaceborne instruments. The degree of global interannual variation is on the order of tenths of percent.

Beschreibung: The effect of sensor spatial resolution on satellite-derived estimates of cloud fractional coverage is quantified on the basis of Landsat satellite radiance data. Cloud fraction is found to depend on cloud algorithm as much as it depends on sensor spatial resolution. Even for 28.5-m spatial resolution data, large cloud fraction differences exist between algorithms. Satellite cloud retrieval algorithms depend strongly on sensor spatial resolution and/or on the optical depth of the cloud field. When present, spatial resolution effects are small (less than 0.01) for pixel diameter less than 1/4 km and are large for pixel diameter larger than 1 km. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project bispectral threshold gives an increase in cloud fraction of 0.11 as spatial resolution degrades from 20 m to 8 km. The spatial coherence algorithm underestimates boundary layer cloud fraction by 0.18. The use of functional box counting and an assumption of fractal scale invariance overestimates the dependence of cloud fraction for spatial scales below 1 km.

Beschreibung: Recent developments in the field of data assimilation have pointed to variational analysis (essentially least-squares fitting of a model solution to observed data) using the adjoint method as a new direction that holds the potential of major improvements over the current optimal interpolation method. This paper describes the initial effort in the development of a 4D variational analysis system. Although the development is based on the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM), the methods and procedures described in this paper can be applied to any model. The adjoint code that computes the gradients needed in the analysis can be written directly from the GCM code. An easy error-detection technique was devised in the construction of the adjoint model. Also, a method of determining the weights and the preconditioning scales for the cases where model-generated data, which are error free, are used as observation is proposed. Two test experiments show that the dynamics part of the system has been successfully completed.

Beschreibung: The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone around western North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. The strong correlation between total ozone distribution and tropopause height found in the subtropical and midlatitudes made it possible for TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric waves and the mutual adjustment between these waves and tropical cyclones during their interaction. Changes in these total ozone patterns reflect the 3D upper-tropospheric transport processes that are involved in tropical cyclone intensity and intensity and motion changes. The total ozone distributions indicate that: (1) the mean upper-tropospheric circulations associated with western North Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones are similar; (2) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses around their centers; (3) more intense tropical cyclones have higher tropopauses on the anticyclonic-shear side of their outflow jets, which indicate that the more intense tropical cyclones have stronger outflow channels than less intense systems; (4) tropical cyclones that intensify (do not intensify) are within 10 deg (15 deg) latitude of weak (strong) upper-tropospheric troughs that are moderately rich (very rich) in total ozone; and (5) tropical cyclones turn to the left (right) when they move within approximately 15 deg latitude downstream of an ozone-poor (ozone-rich) upper-tropospheric ridge (trough).

Beschreibung: The paper develops a comparative picture of the 1987 Southern Hemisphere and 1989 Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric, polar vortex circulation and constituent distributions as observed by the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, August 17-September 22, 1987, and Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition, January 3-February 19, 1989 aircraft campaigns. Overall, both polar vortices define a region of highly isolated air, where the exchange of trace gases occurs principally at the vortex edge through erosional wave activity. Aircraft measurement showed that between 50 and 100 mbar, horizontally stratified long-lived tracers such as N2O are displaced downward 2-3 km on the cyclonic (poleward) side of the jet with the meridional tracer gradient sharpest at the jet core. Eddy mixing rates, computed using parcel ensemble statistics, are an order of magnitude or more lower on the cyclonic side of the jet compared to those on the anticyclonic side. Poleward zonal mean meridional flow on the anticyclonic side of the jet terminates in a descent zone at the jet core.

Beschreibung: Results are presented of a study of the radiative effects of polar stratospheric clouds during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE) and the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) in which daily 3D Type I nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and Type II water ice polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were generated in the polar regions during AAOE and the AASE aircraft missions. Mission data on particular composition and size, together with NMC-analyzed temperatures, are used. For AAOE, both Type I and Type II clouds were formed for the time period August 23 to September 17, after which only Type I clouds formed. During AASE, while Type I clouds were formed for each day between January 3 and February 10, Type II clouds formed on only two days, January 24 and 31. Mie theory and a radiative transfer model are used to compute the radiative heating rates during the mission periods, for clear and cloudy lower sky cases. Only the Type II water ice clouds have a significant radiative effect, with the Type I NATO PSCs generating a net heating or cooling of 0.1 K/d or less.

Beschreibung: The relationships between satellite-based and radar-measured area-time integrals (ATI) for convective storms are determined, and both are shown to depend on the climatological conditional mean rain rate and the ratio of the measured cloud area to the actual rain area of the storms. The GOES precipitation index of Arkin (1986) for convective storms, an area-time integral for satellite cloud areas, is shown to be related to the ATI for radar-observed rain areas. The quality of GPI-based rainfall estimates depends on how well the cloud area is related to the rain area and the size of the sampling domain. It is also noted that the use of a GOES cloud ATI in conjunction with the radar area-time integral will improve the accuracy of rainfall estimates and allow such estimates to be made in much smaller space-time domains than the 1-month and 5-deg boxes anticipated for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission.

Beschreibung: The method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) was applied to a 10-yr data set of outgoing longwave radiation. Spherical harmonic functions are used as a basis set for producing equal area map results. The first EOF accounts for 66 percent of the variance. After that, each EOF accounts for only a small variance, forming a slowly converging series. The first two EOFs describe mainly the annual cycle. The third EOF is primarily the semiannual cycle although many other EOFs also contain significant semiannual parts. These results reaffirm those based on a shorter data set. In addition, a much stronger spring/fall mode was found in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean for the second EOF than was found earlier. The fourth EOF describes much of the 1976 to 1977 and 1982 to 1983 ENSO phenomena. There is typically a gap in the spectrum between a semiannual peak and the annual cycle for all but the first EOF. A semiannual OLR dipole straddles the Asian-Australian monsoon track.

Beschreibung: When sufficiently large zonally asymmetric tropical heating is introduced in a two-level model of global atmospheric flow, its general circulation becomes strongly superrotating. The nature of the superrotating solutions is studied by examining momentum and heat budgets for a range of values of thermal forcing. Changes in the transport of zonal momentum by transient eddies appear to play the key role in the transition to superrotation. The dramatic bifurcation of the solutions of this model may help explain the maintenance and variability of the zonal mean flow in the tropics.

Beschreibung: On 17 March 1989, moderate to heavy snow developed in a 100- to 200-km-wide band extending from South Dakota to northern Michigan. The 4- to 8-inch snowfall within this band was not associated with major cyclogenesis, and developed 500 to 600 km north of a stationary surface front. A diagnostic analysis based on an application of the General Meteorological Package (GEMPAK 5.0) to a numerical simulation from the operational nested-grid model (NGM) is utilized to show that the development of this snow band is related to the interaction of two upper-tropospheric jet streaks and their associated transverse circulation patterns. The eastward propagation of a jet streak from the West Coast toward the middle United States and to the south of a slower-moving jet along the U.S.-Canadian border led to a merger of the ascent maxima associated with the direct and indirect circulations of the northern and southern jets, respectively. The snow band developed as the ascending branches of the jet-streak circulation patterns merged, with the eastward propagation of the heaviest snow linked to the motion of the coupled circulation pattern. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of the operational NGM for providing the higher-resolution datasets required to relate the evolution of jet-streak circulation patterns to the development of mesoscale precipitation bands.

Beschreibung: The response of the middle atmosphere to an increase in stratospheric aerosols, normally associated with increased volcanic activity, is investigated. The aerosols are found to induce a direct stratospheric response, with warming in the tropical lower stratosphere, and cooling at higher latitudes. On the shorter time scales, this radiative effect increases tropospheric static stability at low- to midlatitudes, which reduces the intensity of the Hadley cell and Ferrel cell. There is an associated increase in tropospheric standing wave energy and a decrease in midlatitude west winds, which result in additional wave energy propagation into the stratosphere at lower midlatitudes in both hemispheres. On the longer time scale, a strong hemispheric asymmetry arises. In the Northern Hemisphere eddy energy decreases, as does the middle-atmosphere residual circulation, and widespread stratospheric cooling results. In the Southern Hemisphere, the large increase in sea ice increases the tropospheric latitudinal temperature gradient, leading to increased eddy energy, an increased middle-atmosphere residual circulation, and some high-latitude stratospheric warming.

Beschreibung: The mechanisms of northern summertime teleconnections are investigated using a barotropic model. In a series of numerical experiments the atmospheric response over the eastern Pacific-North America to an idealized local divergence source corresponding to the northward displacement of the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific is studied. It is found that the response is much stronger in June than in May and is strongest when the forcing is located north of about 10 deg N. This can be explained in terms of the refractive properties of the climatological summertime subtropical jet stream over North America. In another series of experiments the global response as a function of the longitudinal location of the tropical forcing is examined. A wave train emanating from the subtropics of the western Pacific near the Philippines, arching across the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska, and terminating with a high anomaly over the continental United States appears over a wide longitudinal range of local forcing, suggesting the existence of a normal mode for the northern summertime climatological flow. The normal-mode concept is supported by further experiments using extratropical forcings as well as free-mode integrations.

Beschreibung: A realistic two-level GCM is used to examine the relationship between predictability and persistence. Predictability is measured by the average divergence of ensembles of solutions starting from perturbed initial conditions, and persistence is defined in terms of the autocorrelation function based on a single long-term model integration. The average skill of the dynamical forecasts is compared with the skill of simple persistence-based statistical forecasts. For initial errors comparable in magnitude to present-day analysis errors, the statistical forecast loses all skill after about one week, reflecting the lifetime of the lowest frequency fluctuations in the model. Large ensemble mean dynamical forecasts would be expected to remain skillful for about 3 wk. The disparity between the skill of the statistical and dynamical forecasts is greater for the higher frequency modes, which have little memory beyond 1 d, yet remain predictable for about 2 wk. The results are analyzed in terms of two characteristic time scales.

Beschreibung: Global fields of precipitable water W from the special sensor microwave imager were compared with those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. They agree over most ocean areas; both data sets capture the two annual cycles examined and the interannual anomalies during an ENSO episode. They show significant differences in the dry air masses over the eastern tropical-subtropical oceans, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, comparisons with radiosonde data indicate that overestimation by the ECMWF model accounts for a large part of the differences. As a check on the W differences, surface-level specific humidity Q derived from W, using a statistical relation, was compared with Q from the ECMWF model. The differences in Q were found to be consistent with the differences in W, indirectly validating the Q-W relation. In both W and Q, SSMI was able to discern clearly the equatorial extension of the tongues of dry air in the eastern tropical ocean, while both ECMWF and climatological fields have reduced spatial gradients and weaker intensity.

Beschreibung: The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Beschreibung: Northern-Hemisphere stratospheric temperatures at 30 and 50 mb beginning in June 1991 are compared with 20-year (1965-1984) and 26-year (1964-1989) monthly means. Significant temperature increases are shown in July, August, September, and October for latitudes from approximately 30 deg N to the equator. In September and October deviations are observed for large areas between the equator and 30 deg N, with temperature increases as high as + 3.5 C occurring at some locations. The monthly averaged zonal mean 30-mb temperatures at 20 deg N in September and October were approximately 2.5 C higher that the 26-year mean, with some daily zonal mean increases of almost 3 C. Higher values occurred equatorward of 20 deg N. These warmings are due to absorption of radiation by the aerosols produced from the June eruptions of the volcano Pinatubo (15.1 deg N, 120.4 deg E) in the Philippines. Stratospheric warmings are expected to be occurring simultaneously at southern latitudes, especially from the equator to about 20 deg S, based on satellite and lidar measurements of the locations of the new aerosol layers. These localized temperature increases should decrease in magnitude and become more global as the cloud disperses globally and spreads in altitude.

Beschreibung: Solar and sky radiation measurements were analyzed to obtain aerosol properties such as the optical thickness and the size distribution. The measurements were conducted as part of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment during the second intensive field campaign (IFC) from June 25 to July 14, 1987, and the fifth IFC from July 25 to August 12, 1989, on the Konza Prairie near Manhattan, Kansas. Correlations with climatological and meteorological parameters show that during the period of observations in 1987, two types of air masses dominated the area: an air mass with low optical thickness and low temperature air associated with a northerly breeze, commonly referred to as the continental air, and an air mass with a higher optical thickness and higher temperature air associated with a southerly wind which we call 'Gulf air'. The size distributions show a predominance of the larger size particles in 'Gulf air'. Because of the presence of two contrasting air masses, correlations with parameters such as relative humidity, specific humidity, pressure, temperature, and North Star sky radiance reveal some interesting aspects. In 1989, clear distinctions between continental and Gulf air cannot be made; the reason for this will be discussed.

Beschreibung: Several improvements have been made recently to the parameterization for surface longwave radiation described by Gupta (1989). Model constants have been modified in order to use meteorological data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project instead of from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder data, primarily to take advantage of the vastly superior cloud information available from the former. Additional modifications were made to improve the estimation of cloud effect in the presence of low-level clouds. The latter modifications reduced the systematic error of the overcast-sky fluxes from 10.0 to 1.7 W/sq m and the random error from +/- 18.9 to +/- 6.3 W/sq m when compared to the fluxes computed with a detailed radiative transfer model.

Beschreibung: A variation of the modified Langley plot algorithm is reported here and applied to the retrieval of atmospheric water column abundance from a filtered sunphotometer. In this new methodology an absorption data base (LOWTRAN 7) is used to compute a water abundance versus transmittance curve of growth, rather than the square-root dependence previously assumed. Validation of the technique is provided from an uncertainty analysis, and plans to further validate using Fourier transform spectrometers are detailed. The new sunphotometer technique is used to report local column water vapor during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE), and comparisons are made with abundances retrieved via FIFE radiosonde observations. The sunphotometer data can best be utilized, however, to in turn validate data from airborne or in-orbit measurements of water vapor. With these flight sensors, horizontal and topographic variability within the scene can be viewed. An example of the airborne data set is given using an image from the airborne visible infrared imaging spectrometer, as acquired on August 31, 1990.

Beschreibung: The joint airport weather studies (JAWS) project is discussed. The major objectives of the JAWS Project are a fundamental description of the phenomenon, a determination of the hazard potential and a definition of a protection and warning system, all of which are relative to low level wind shear. Aspects of the low level wind shear phenomenon. The principal focus, however, is the microburst. The microburst is fundamentally a rather simple atmospheric flow. It is a downdraft that, upon approaching the surface, spreads out horizontally, producing a diverging radial flow in all directions. For any direction that an aircraft flies through the microburst, it will first encounter increasing head winds; then the remnants of the downdraft; and then, increasing tail wind.

Beschreibung: A heavily instrumented F-106B aircraft was flown in thunderstorms to gather data for characterizing lightning at aircraft operating altitudes. Conventional weather finding techniques are supplemented with UHF lightning mapping radar to select the most active storm cells and the most likely altitude for obtaining direct lightning strikes to the airplane. One hundred seventy-six strikes were obtained in a 3 year period, mostly at an altitude of above 25,000 feet.

Beschreibung: A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.

Beschreibung: Marked surface inversions occur most frequently in dry continental climates, where low atmospheric humidity allows heat transfer by long wave thermal radiation. In the northern latitudes, surface inversions reach their maximum intensity during the winter, when the incoming Sun's radiation is negligible and radiative cooling is dominant during the long nights. During winter, air mass boundaries are sharp, which causes formation of marked surface inversions. The existence of these inversions and sharp boundaries increase the risk of wind shear. The information should refer to marked inversions exceeding a temperature difference of 10 deg C up to 1000 feet. The need to determine the temperature range over which he information is operationally needed and the magnitude of the inversion required before a notification to pilots prior to departure is warranted are outlined.

Beschreibung: The Gust Gradient Program is a data intensive effort involving tripple Doppler radar, a surface weather station mesonet and other aircraft. The Joint Airport Weather Studies was utilized to gain additional data. The data were used to fill in the gap in turbulence modeling.

Beschreibung: The objective of the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) Program was to develop a weather forecast guidance system that would: predict between 0 to 6 hours all elements in the airways observations; respond instantly to the latest observed conditions of the surface weather; process these observations at local sites on minicomputing equipment; exceed the accuracy of current persistence predictions at the shortest prediction of one hour and beyond; exceed the accuracy of current forecast model output statistics inside eight hours; and be capable of making predictions at one location for all locations where weather information is available.

Beschreibung: Recommendations based on need, cost, and achievement of flight safety are offered, and the re-evaluation of weather parameters needed for safe landing operations that lead to reliable and consistent automated observation capabilities are considered.

Beschreibung: The primary responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) are to: provide warnings of severe weather and flooding for the protection of life and property; provide public forecasts for land and adjacent ocean areas for planning and operation; and provide weather support for: production of food and fiber; management of water resources; production, distribution and use of energy; and efficient and safe air operations.

Beschreibung: The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

Beschreibung: Using a physical approach, global ten-day mean long-wave cloud radiative forcing has been derived from satellite data for a period from January 1979 to May 1981. This forcing shows small (2 to 3 W/sq m) variations for diurnal, seasonal, and interannual time scales, even though the detailed structure of cloud fields may have considerable temporal and spatial variability. The amplitude of variations of the hemispheric mean is much larger than the global mean; the largest variation is over land areas (20 W/sq m) of the Southern Hemisphere, and the smallest variation is over the ocean (6 W/wq m) of the Northern Hemisphere.

Beschreibung: Models that try to forecast the detailed geographical distribution of oceanic and atmospheric variables affected by the ENSO cycle are briefly discussed. Combinations of singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method that hold promise for predicting the ENSO cycle 2-3 yrs in advance are addressed.

Beschreibung: Monthly 2.5-deg gridpoint anomalies in the Tiros-N satellite series Microwave Sounding Unit channel 2 brightness temperatures during 1979-1988 are evaluated with multiple satellites and radiosonde data for their climate temperature monitoring capability. The MSU anomalies are computed about a 10-yr mean annual cycle at each gridpoint, with the MSUs intercalibrated to a common arbitrary level. The monthly gridpoint anomaly agreement between concurrently operating satellites reveals single-satellite precision generally better than 0.07 C in the tropics and better than 0.15 C at higher latitudes. The removal from channel 2 of the temperature influence above the 30-kPa level is addressed, providing a sharper and thus potentially more useful weighting function for monitoring lower tropospheric temperatures.

Beschreibung: It is illustrated how climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols depends on aerosol properties. The climate forcing is a function of aerosols size distribution, but the size dependence can be described well by a single parameter: the area-weighted mean radius, r(eff). If r(eff) is greater than about 2 microns, the global average greenhouse effect of the aerosols exceeds the albedo effect, causing a surface heating. The aerosol climate forcing is less sensitive to other characteristics of the size distribution, the aerosol composition, and the altitude of the aerosols. Thus stratospheric aerosol forcing can be defined accurately from measurements of aerosol extinction over a broad wavelength range.

Beschreibung: A question arising from the recent interest in spaceborne weather radar is what methods can be used to estimate precipitation parameters from space. In this paper, dual-wavelength airborne radar data obtained from flights conducted during 1988 and 1989 are used to compare rain rates derived from backscattering and attenuation methods. To help interpret the results the surface reference methods are studied by means of scatterplots of the surface cross sections at the two frequencies under rain and no-rain conditions. Approximate criteria are given on combining attenuation and backscattering methods to increase the effective dynamic range of the radar. The dual-wavelength capability of the radar is also used to examine the vertical structure of the precipitation. Another factor affecting the accuracy of the methods is the drop-size distribution. In the final section of the paper a procedure to estimate the profiled drop-size distribution is applied to the measured radar data.

Beschreibung: The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) retrieved cloud fields and the high-resolution radiation sounder 2 (HIRS2) retrieved cloud fields yield similar outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to the cancelation effect of cloud-top altitudes and cloud amount on OLR. For the large regional discrepancies of the order of 30 W/sq m found over northern Africa are largely due to surface temperature differences, and extensive discrepancies over the ocean are due to humidity differences. Harmonic analysis is applied to OLR, clear-sky OLR, and cloud-radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere using the ISCCP products. The diurnal variations of these parameters from 60 deg S to 60 deg N are larger over land than over the ocean. The clear-sky OLR peaks around 1500 LST, usually over land areas, and is associated with the surface/air temperature maximum. The OLR over cloudy regions shows a similar diurnal phase as the cloud top pressure. The cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere has maximum value near 2100 LST mountain areas and near 0000 and 0300 LST over equatorial regions. The ISCCP-computed longwave cloud radiative forcing has smaller diurnal variations over the ocean than the HIRS2-computed longwave cloud radiative forcing. The global mean bias of OLR is around 0.74 W/sq m, and locally, the bias can be as large as 5 to 10 W/sq m. This appears to indicate that the twice-a-day measurements of the HIRS2/MSU (around 0315 and 1515 LST, which are the equatorial cross times at nadir track) can be used to derive monthly mean OLR without significant bias.

Beschreibung: A study is presented of the latitudinal redistribution of angular momentum within the atmosphere from 1976 to 1991. Slow global-scale coherent poleward propagation of atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations are observed on interannual timescales. These originate in equatorial regions, where they lead the main atmospheric anomalies of the ENSO cycle by nearly two yrs; they penetrate to latitude higher than 60 deg in both hemispheres, where they lag behind the ENSO cycle by about four yrs. The bimodality of the ENSO phenomenon, with a low-frequency component centered at a period close to 4.2 yrs and a high-frequency component centered near 2.4 yrs, can also be distinguished. Each of the two components has a distinct latitudinal propagation pattern.

Beschreibung: The objective of this paper is to provide a convenient and fast way for computing the radiative properties of planar Rayleigh scattering media. Analytical expressions are developed for the three molecular atmospheric functions which are required in remote sensing: the atmospheric reflectance, the transmission function, and the spherical albedo. The expressions are adjusted by using accurate computations performed with successive orders of a scattering code. The accuracy of the code is first checked by using previously published tabulations. The required accuracy of 0.001 in the reflectance unit is achieved by numerical adjustments. The contribution of polarization is considered implicitly. The expressions are shown to be valid for a fairly large range of observational conditions.

Beschreibung: A technique is developed that uses a multispectral, multiresolution method to improve the overall retrieval of mid- to high-level cloud properties by combining HIRS sounding channel data with higher spatial resolution AVHRR radiometric data collocated with the HIRS footprint. Cirrus cloud radiative and physical properties are determined using satellite data, surface-based measurements provided by rawinsondes and lidar, and aircraft-based lidar data collected during the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program Regional Experiment in Wisconsin during the months of October and November 1986. HIRS cloud-height retrievals are compared to ground-based lidar and aircraft lidar when possible. Retrieved cloud heights are found to have close agreement with lidar for thin cloud, but are higher than lidar for optically thick cloud. The results of the reflectance-emittance relationships derived are compared to theoretical scattering model results for both water-droplet spheres and randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals. It is found that the assumption of 10-micron water droplets is inadequate to describe the reflectance-emittance relationship for the ice clouds seen here. Use of this assumption would lead to lower cloud heights using the ISCCP approach. The theoretical results show that use of hexagonal ice crystal phase functions could lead to much improved results for cloud retrieval algorithms using a bispectral approach.

Beschreibung: Observations on January 7 and 8, 1991, of an arc-shaped cloud band outlining an area in the eastern Mediterranean within a warm ocean eddy were made using the NOAA-11 AVHRR. Clouds formed at the edge of the warm eddy's internal boundary layer as the wind traveled at right angles from the colder Aegean water toward the warm eddy. No clouds formed on the southern side of the warm eddy where sea surface temperatures were warmer and where the winds may not have flowed at right angles toward the warm eddy. An upper limit of 24 h was determined for the length of time the arc-shaped cloud stayed over the eddy.

Beschreibung: The authors describe the status of MODIS-N and its companion instrument MODIS-T (tilt), a tiltable cross-track scanning spectrometer with 32 uniformly spaced channels between 0.410 and 0.875 micron. They review the various methods being developed for the remote sensing of atmospheric properties using MODIS, placing primary emphasis on the principal atmospheric applications of determining the optical, microphysical, and physical properties of clouds and aerosol particles from spectral reflection and thermal emission measurements. In addition to cloud and aerosol properties, MODIS-N will be used for determining the total precipitable water vapor and atmospheric stability. The physical principles behind the determination of each of these atmospheric products are described, together with an example of their application to aircraft and/or satellite measurements.

Beschreibung: Using a stratospheric-tropospheric data assimilation system, referred to as STRATAN, a minor sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 1989 is investigated. The event had a maximum influence on the stratospheric circulation near 2 hPa. The zonal mean circulation reversed briefly in the polar region as the temperature increased 34 K in 3 days. The cause of the warming is shown to be the rapid development and subsequent movement of a warm anomaly, which initially developed in the midlatitudes. The development of the warm anomaly is caused by adiabatic descent, and the dissipation by radiative cooling. A brief comparison with the NMC analysis and temperature sounding data is also presented.

Beschreibung: We consider the response of a zonally symmetric atmosphere to a thermal forcing that is localized in the subtropics. Specifically, the equilibrium temperature distribution has a local subtropical peak and is flat elsewhere, including at the equator. On the basis of inviscid steady-state theory, it is argued that the response to such forcing is one of two distinct types. Below a threshold forcing, the atmosphere adopts a steady state of thermal equilibrium with no meridional flow. With supercritical forcing, this state breaks down and a strong meridional circulation is predicted. The threshold forcing value is that at which the absolute vorticity of the zonal flow (in gradient balance with the equilibrium temperatures) vanishes at the upper boundary. These inviscid predictions are tested in a zonally symmetric numerical model; while the model viscosity shifts the threshold and otherwise modifies the response, the threshold is clearly evident in the model behavior.

Beschreibung: Singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregresive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992.

Beschreibung: The NASA/GSFC Crustal Dynamics Project microwave water vapor radiometer (J03) is evaluated in terms of measurements of the integrated precipitable water vapor content of a particular column of the troposphere. The measurements were taken during the Atmospheric Moisture Intercomparison Study (ATMIS) held at Wallops Island (Virginia) during April 1989. Water vapor sensing instruments used during ATMIS, included radiometers, radiosondes, and the NASA/GSFC Raman lidar. Comparisons between water vapor measurements by the radiometer and the lidar yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.998 and rms differences for three nights of -0.2 +/- 0.2 mm (April 11-12), -0.8 +/- 0.5 mm (April 16-17), and -0.4 +/- 0.3 mm (April 17-18). The integrated precipitable water vapor measurements for these three nights were approximately 5, 10 and 21 mm, respectively. This study shows that the radiometer provides accurate continuous measurements of the water vapor integrated through the depth of the atmosphere.

Beschreibung: A series of experiments have been conducted to examine the sensitivity of forecast skill to various data and data analysis techniques for the 0000 GMT case of January 21, 1979. These include the individual components of the FGGE observing system, the temperatures obtained with different satellite retrieval methods, and the method of vertical interpolation between the mandatory pressure analysis levels and the model sigma levels. It is found that NESS TIROS-N infrared retrievals seriously degrade a rawinsonde-only analysis over land, resulting in a poorer forecast over North America. Less degradation in the 72-hr forecast skill at sea level and some improvement at 500 mb is noted, relative to the control with TIROS-N retrievals produced with a physical inversion method which utilizes a 6-hr forecast first guess. NESS VTPR oceanic retrievals lead to an improved forecast over North America when added to the control.

Beschreibung: An assessment is made of the extent to which polar filtering may seriously affect the skill of latitude-longitude NWP models, such as the U.S. Navy's NOGAPS, or the GLAS fourth-order model. The limited experiments which have been completed to date with the 4 x 5-deg, 9-level version of the latter model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects its forecasting skill very little, with only one exception in which the use of the PG filter significantly improved forecasting.

Beschreibung: The present investigation has as objective to take a detailed look at the intense squall line over Oklahoma on May 2-3, 1979, using GOES stereoscopy combined with GOES infrared data. The synoptic situation and data sources are considered along with the stereoscopically observed cloud top ascent rates. Cloud top observations of intense thunderstorms are discussed, taking into account a contouring technique, the interpretation of infrared cloud top temperature patterns, and small-scale structure and its variability. It is found that GOES IR cloud top temperatures grossly underestimate the actual cloud top height observed stereoscopically, especially for immature storms. It is difficult to define growing storms below about 10 km in the GOES infrared data.

Beschreibung: The transport mechanisms responsible for the seasonal behavior of total ozone are deduced from the comparison of model results to stratospheric data. The seasonal transport is dominated by a combination of the diabatic circulation and transient planetary wave activity acting on a diffusively and photochemically determined background state. The seasonal variation is not correctly modeled as a diffusive process. The buildup of total ozone at high latitudes during winter is dependent upon transient planetary wave activity of sufficient strength to cause the breakdown of the polar vortex. While midwinter warmings are responsible for enhanced ozone transport to high latitudes, the final warming marking the transition from zonal mean westerlies to zonal mean easterlies is the most important event leading to the spring maximum. The final warming is not followed by reacceleration of the mean flow; so that the ozone transport associated with this event is more pronounced than that associated with midwinter warmings.

Beschreibung: The evolution of wave energy, enstrophy, and wave motion for atmospheric Rossby waves in a variable mean flow are discussed from a theoretical and pedagogic standpoint. In the absence of mean flow gradients, the wave energy density satisfies a local conservation law, with the appropriate flow velocity being the group velocity. In the presence of mean flow variations, wave energy is not conserved, but wave action is, provided the mean flow is independent of longitude. Wave enstrophy is conserved for arbitrary variations of the mean flow. Connections with Eiiassen-Palm flux are also discussed.

Beschreibung: A technique for quantifying the absorption that takes place in the 15 micron CO2 band in the atmosphere is developed as a function of the scaled CO2 content. A spectrally averaged transmission function is defined and a scaling approximation for the absorption coefficient is calculated, as is the width of the absorption band. An assessment is made of the accuracies of the parameterized atmospheric transmittance and cooling rate. The resulting radiation parameterization is applied in a climate sensitivity study. The model is concluded useful in examining atmospheres with a variable CO2 content, with the highest accuracies being available in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere. CO2 doubling the earth's atmosphere is projected to cause a 20 percent warming in the surface temperatures and a 30 percent warming for the tripling of the CO2 content, provided the spectral range for CO2 absorption is extended from 580-760 to 540-800/cm.

Beschreibung: The Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Darwin pressure anomalies are examined for the 81-year period 1901-81. It is found that the tendency of the Darwin pressure anomaly before the monsoon season is a good indicator of the monsoon rainfall anomaly. During the 81-year period, there were only two instances (1901, 1941) when a negative tendency of winter (December, January, February) to spring (March, April, May) Darwin pressure anomaly was followed by a monsoon rainfall anomaly of less than minus one standard deviation; and only three instances (1916, 1933, 1961) when a positive tendency was followed by a rainfall anomaly of more than one standard deviation. Therefore, if the Darwin pressure anomaly during March, April and May is below normal, and if the Darwin seasonal pressure anomaly has been falling, a non-occurrence of drought over India can be predicted with a very high degree of confidence. Similarly, above normal Darwin pressure during March, April and May, and increasing seasonal pressure anomaly is a good indicator of the non-occurrence of very heavy rain over India.

Beschreibung: Approaches for developing an improved passive microwave technique to delineate rain from wet land surfaces are considered, and an investigation is conducted with the objective to study the application of these ideas with empirical data. The investigation includes a statistical analysis of Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 37.0, 18.0, and 10.7 GHz data. The possibility was assessed to make use of the 18.0 and 10.7 GHz channels in order to reduce the ambiguities found in the 37.0 GHz radiometer data for differentiating rainfall areas from wet land surfaces. It was found, however, that none of the SMMR channels could differentiate rain from wet or dry land when surface temperatures were less than 15 C. It appears that an improved rainfall-over-land detection technique could be developed by two different methods, utilizing both satellite infrared and multifrequency dual polarized passive microwave data.

Beschreibung: In order to utilize satellite measurements of optical thickness over land for estimating aerosol properties during air pollution episodes, the optical thickness was measured from the surface and investigated. Aerosol optical thicknesses have been derived from solar transmission measurements in eight spectral bands within the band lambda 440-870 nm during the summers of 1980 and 1981 near Washington, DC. The optical thicknesses for the eight bands are strongly correlated. It was found that first eigenvalue of the covariance matrix of all observations accounts for 99 percent of the trace of the matrix. Since the measured aerosol optical thickness was closely proportional to the wavelength raised to a power, the aerosol size distribution derived from it is proportional to the diameter (d) raised to a power for the range of diameters between 0.1 to 1.0 micron. This power is insensitive to the total optical thickness. Changes in the aerosol optical thickness depend on several aerosol parameters, but it is difficult to identify the dominant one. The effects of relative humidity and accumulation mode concentration on the optical thickness are analyzed theoretically, and compared with the measurements.

Beschreibung: The analysis of the blizzard, an intense cyclone that was accompanied by unusually heavy snowfall, high winds, and cold temperatures, is carried out using a collection of detailed surface weather observations. It follows the cyclone from its genesis along a slow-moving frontal system through its rapid development and occlusion along the Middle Atlantic and southern New England coasts. Unusual aspects of the cyclone are discussed. Among these are the limited areal extent of heavy snow accumulations, the establishment of very cold air across western New England and the Middle Atlantic states, a persistent stationary front zone across central New England that separated frigid continental air from maritime air, and the slow movement and rapid warming associated with the decay of the storm.

Beschreibung: Measurements for Washington, DC and Boulder, CO are combined to provide a time series of midlatitude stratospheric water vapor data for the period 1964-82. The mean concentration for the data period is shown to be nearly constant with altitude for the low stratospheric layer between 16-22 km with a mass mixing ratio for the layer of 2.5-2.6 ppmm. Above 22 km the mixing ratio increases slightly with altitude. Evident in the 60 mb level time series is an annual cycle, a quasi-biennial cycle and a long-term nonlinear trend. The quasi-biennial cycle in water vapor at midlatitudes is consistent with variations in tropical stratosphere zonal winds and temperature and total ozone and suggests a modulation of the Hadley cell circulation. The long-term trend shows mixing ratio increasing during the 1960s and decreasing in the 1970s after 1972.

Beschreibung: The techniques used to obtain the mean equivalent temperature of the eye wall for Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Allen (1980) using GOES satellite IR and stereoscopic observations are described. The eye wall is the area of greatest convection near the center of the storm, and is bounded by the inner radius around the eye and the outer radius bounding the area of inner core convection. The stereoscopic capability afforded by the GOES West and East spacecraft permits simultaneous, two-view imagery of a tropical cyclone, yielding height measurement accuracies of 0.5 km and horizontal accuracies as small as 1 km. An airborne lidar unit was used to verify the height measurements made of Hurricane Frederic. At the same time, the GOES East Visible IR Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) provided the mean wall temperatures from the release of latent heat. The trials aided in identifying the assumptions and consequent inaccuracies introduced into the temperature sounding data during analysis. The satellite data is concluded useful for monitoring changes in storm intensity.

Beschreibung: The vicinity of KSC, where the primary ground truth site of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) program is located, was the focal point of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment in Jul. and Aug. 1991. In addition to several specialized radars, local coverage was provided by the C-band (5 cm) radar at Patrick AFB. Point measurements of rain rate were provided by tipping bucket rain gage networks. Besides these ground-based activities, airborne radar measurements with X- and Ka-band nadir-looking radars on board an aircraft were also recorded. A unique combination data set of airborne radar observations with ground-based observations was obtained in the summer convective rain regime of central Florida. We present a comparison of these data intending a preliminary validation. A convective rain event was observed simultaneously by all three instrument types on the evening of 27 Jul. 1991. The high resolution aircraft radar was flown over convective cells with tops exceeding 10 km and observed reflectivities of 40 to 50 dBZ at 4 to 5 km altitude, while the low resolution surface radar observed 35 to 55 dBZ echoes and a rain gage indicated maximum surface rain rates exceeding 100 mm/hr. The height profile of reflectivity measured with the airborne radar show an attenuation of 6.5 dB/km (two way) for X-band, corresponding to a rainfall rate of 95 mm/hr.

Beschreibung: The Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment took place in east central Florida from 8 July to 18 August, 1991. There were five research themes associated with CaPE. In broad terms they are: investigation of the evolution of the electric field in convective clouds, determination of meteorological and electrical conditions associated with lightning, development of mesoscale numerical forecasts (2-12 hr) and nowcasts (less than 2 hr) of convective initiation and remote estimation of rainfall. It is the last theme coupled with numerous raingage and streamgage measurements, satellite and aircraft remote sensing, radiosondes and other meteorological measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer that provide the basis for determining the hydrologic cycle for the CaPE experiment area. The largest component of the hydrologic cycle in this region is rainfall. An accurate determination of daily area-mean rainfall is important in correctly modeling its apportionment into runoff, infiltration and evapotranspiration. In order to achieve this goal a research plan was devised and initial analysis begun. The overall research plan is discussed with special emphasis placed on the adjustment of radar rainfall estimates to raingage rainfall.

Beschreibung: The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

Beschreibung: Algorithms are presented for determining the size and location of electric charges which model storm systems and lightning strikes. The analysis utilizes readings from a grid of ground level field mills and geometric constraints on parameters to arrive at a representative set of charges. This set is used to generate three dimensional graphical depictions of the set as well as contour maps of the ground level electrical environment over the grid. The composite, analytic and graphic package is demonstrated and evaluated using controlled input data and archived data from a storm system. The results demonstrate the packages utility as: an operational tool in appraising adverse weather conditions; a research tool in studies of topics such as storm structure, storm dynamics, and lightning; and a tool in designing and evaluating grid systems.

Beschreibung: Previous research has been conducted to investigate the effect of the low-level wind region on summertime convective storms in the east central Florida area. These effects were described by analyzing the distribution of lightning flashes within classifications based on the low-level wind regime for the months June through September of 1987 to 1990. The present research utilizes the same classification strategy to study rainfall patterns for data gathered for the CaPE (Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment) field program. The CaPE field program was conducted in east central Florida from July 8, 1991 to August 18, 1991.