ALBERT

Notizen: The Susunai Complex of southeast Sakhalin represents a subduction-related accretionary complex of pelitic and basic rocks. Two stages of metamorphism are recognized: (1) a local, low-P/T event characterized by Si-poor calcic amphiboles; (2) a regional, high-P/T event characterized by pumpellyite, actinolite, epidote, sodic amphibole, sodic pyroxene, stilpnomelane and aragonite. The major mineral assemblages of the high-P/T Susunai metabasites contain pumpellyite + epidote + actinolite + chlorite, epidote + actinolite + chlorite, epidote + Na-amphibole + Na-pyroxene + chlorite-(-haematite. The Na-amphibole is commonly magnesioriebeckite. The Na-pyroxene is jadeite-poor aegirine to aegirine-augite. Application of empirically and experimentally based thermobarometers suggests peak conditions of T= 250–300C, P= 4.7–6 kbar. Textural relationships in Susunai metabasite samples and a petrogenetic grid calculated for the Fe3+-rich basaltic system suggest that pressure and temperature increased during prograde metamorphism.

Notizen: In the Llano Uplift of central Texas (USA), prograde homogenization of garnet growth zoning took place during moderate-to high-pressure dynamothermal metamorphism over a narrow temperature range near the transition from the amphibolite to the granulite facies. This subtle record of early dynamothermal metamorphism survived subsequent static metamorphism at low pressures in the middle-amphibolite facies, despite the destruction of most high-pressure mineral assemblages that originated in the early metamorphic episode. Geographically systematic variations in the degree of homogenization indicate that the uplift as a whole underwent high-pressure metamorphism, in accord with emerging tectonic models for the mid-Proterozoic evolution of the southern margin of the North American continent.

Notizen: Successful long-term wetland restoration efforts require consideration of hydrology and currounding land use during the site selection process. This article describes an approach to initial site selection in the San Luis Rey River watershed in southern California that uses watershed-level information on basin topography and land cover to rank the potential suitability of all sites within a watershed for either preservation of restoration. This approach requires the use of a geographic information system (GIS)to map relative wetness and land cover within a watershed. Relative potential wetness values were derived from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 30-m digital elevation models by calculating the flow that would potentially accumulate at all 30-m × 30-m pixels within the watershed. Land cover was derived from a Landsat scene covering the 1500 Km2 study area. We ranked sites (contiguous groups of pixels 〉 1 ha with similar land cover) in terms of their potential for restoration or preservation based on their wetness values (Iow, medium, and high), size, and proximity to existing riparian vegetation. Sites with medium or high wetness values and extant vegetation were identified as potential preservation sites. Agiricultural or barren sites with medium to high wetness were identified as potential restoration sites. Approximately 5500 ha (3.67% of the total watershed) were prioritized for preservation or resloration.

Notizen: This historical and conceptual overview of riparian ecosystem restoration discusses how riparian ecosystems have been defined, describes the hydrologic, geomorphic, and biotic processes that create and maintain riparian ecosystems of the western USA, identifies the main types of anthropogenic desturbances occurring in these ecosystems, and provides an overview of restoration methods for each disturbance type. We suggest that riparian ecosystems consist of two zones: Zone I occupies the active floodplain and is frequently inundated and Zone II extends from the active floodplain to the valley wall. Successful restoration depends n understanding the physical and biological processes that influence natural riparian ecosystems and the types of disturbance that have degraded riparian areas. Thus we recommend adopting a process-based approach for riparian restoration. Disturbances to riparian ecosystems in the western USA result from streamflow modifications by dams, reservoirs, and diversions; stream channelization; direct modification of the riparian ecosystem; and watershed disturbances. Four topics should be addressed to advance the state of science for restoration of riparian ecosys-tems: (1) interdisciplinary approaches, (2) a unified framework, (3) a better understanding of fundamental riparian ecosystem processes, and (4) restoration po-tential more closely related to disturbance type. Three issues should be considered regarding the cause of the degraded environment: (1) the location of the causative disturbance with respect to the degraded riparian area, (2) whether the disturbance is ongoing or can be elim-inated, and (3) whether or not recovery will occur nat-urally if the disturbance is removed.

Notizen: A two-stage system for selecting stream reaches and riparian communities for restoration was applied to the 80-km San Luis Rey River below the Lake Henshaw dam in southern California. In the first satge, data from topographic quadrangles and aerial photographs were analyzed to define and classiy reaches. These analyses concluded that (1) 28 km of the river and adjacent floodplain were suitable for second-stage evaluation of restoration needs and (2) 32 km met criteria for reference conditions at the stream reach scale and should be protected from further impacts. The remaining 20 km of the river and floodplain were considered unsuitable for restoration to reach-scale reference conditions; individual sites may be restored under existing regulatory review. Second-stage field sampling provided data on vegetation and floodplain landforms and substrate from more thatn 3000 plots within the 28 km of river and 1120 ha of floodplain selected for further Study. Classification of floristic samples stratified by landform/substrate class indicated six primary riparian communities on the floodplain, some associated with particular floodplain landform/substrate classes and others ubiquitous. Reference conditions for these communities were interpreted from the data. There were two major departures from reference conditions: tree-dominated communities were less extensive than historic levels and exotic plants had significantly invaded some landforms and communities, displacing natural com-munities. General goals would include restoration of tree communities and removal of exotics, with further consideration of site-specific objectives. The results included estimates of the areas by community type re-quiring restoration. The approach was developed for streams in the semi-arid western United States, but it may be adapted for use elsewhere.

Notizen: This study compares the results of Olson and Harris (1997) and Russell et al. (1997) in their work to prioritize sites for riparian restoration in the San Luis Rey River watershed. Olson and Harris defined reaches of the mainstem and evaluated the relative potential for restoration and protection based on cover of natural vegetation, land use, and connectivity. Then they used data on geomorphic conditions, plant species composition, and community structure to prescribe strategies for restoration. Russell et al. used a modeling approach within a geographic information system to combine data on wetness and land use/land cover to identify areas with potential for protection and restoration. They prioritized the areas based on patch size and proximity to extant riparian habitat. The main-stem and associated floodplain defined by Olson and Harris was more than twice the size of the area defined by Russell et al., because Olson and Harris considered the entire valley floor, whereas Russell et al. used a wetness index to identify saturated zones within the floodplain. For seven of the twelve management units delineated along the mainstem, the two studies agreed on a strategy of restoration or protection. They differed on two. No comparison could be made of the three units for which Olson and Harris used project review, a unique category. Agreement of the results is due to the similarity of criteria used to identify and rank sites for protection and restoration; disagreement is due primarily to the level of resolution of the data. Both approaches have potential for use in watershed-level planning. The predictive power of the two approaches may be maximized when they are used in a complementary fashion.

Notizen: We present a conceptual model for identifying restoration sites for riparian wetlands and discuss its application to reaches within the Upper Arkansas River basin in Colorado. The model utilizes a Geographic Information System (GIS) to analyze a variety of spatial data useful in characterizing geomorphology, hydrology, and vegetation of riparian wetland sites. The model focuses on three basic properties of riparian wetland sites: relative soil moisture, disturbance regime, and vegetative characteristics. A relative wetness index is used to define nominal soil moisture classes within the watershed. These classes generally coincide with uplands (low), channel margins (moderate), and channels or open water (high). Vegetative conditions are characterized using color infrared aerial photographs. Land cover types are grouped into five major land cover classes: riparian, moist herbaceous, bare ground, upland, and open water. Disturbance regime is characterized by a reach-based index of specific power (ω). Preliminary results indicate that reaches within the Upper Arkansas River basin can be classified as high energy (ω≥ 8 W/m2) or low energy (ω≤ 3W/m2), using discharge estimates that reflect the 10-year flood event. Field surveys of channel and floodplain conditions show that high-energy reaches (ω≥ 8 W/m2) are characterized by sites where the channel occupies a large proportion of the valley bottom. By contrast, low-energy reaches (ω≤ 3 W/m2) are characterized by meandering channels with wide alluvial valleys. Restoration potential is evaluated as a combination of nominal scores from wetness, land cover, and disturbance indices. Application of these methods to field sites within the Upper Arkansas River basin identifies a wide range of riparian wetland sites for preservation or restoration. Potential sites within identified reaches are prioritized using size and proximity criteria.

Notizen: A major goal of population biologists involved in restoration work is to restore populations to a level that will allow them to persist over the long term within a dynamic landscape and include the ability to undergo adaptive evolutionary change. We discuss five research areas of particular importance to restoration biology that offer potentially unique opportunities to couple basic research with the practical needs of restorationists. The five research areas are: (1) the influence of numbers of individuals and genetic variation in the initial population on population colonization, establishment, growth, and evolutionary potential; (2) the role of local adaptation and life history traits in the success of restored populations; (3) the influence of the spatial arrangement of landscape elements on metapopulation dynamics and population processes such as migration; (4) the effects of genetic drift, gene flow, and selection on population persistence within an often accelerated, successional time frame; and (5) the influence of interspecific interactions on population dynamics and community development. We also provide a sample of practical problems faced by practitioners, each of which encompasses one or more of the research areas discussed, and that may be solved by addressing fundamental research questions.

Notizen: When the transportation risk posed by shipments of hazardous chemical and radioactive materials is being assessed, it is necessary to evaluate therisks associated with both vehicle emissions and cargo-related risks. Diesel exhaust and fugitive dust emissions from vehicles transporting hazardous shipments lead to increased air pollution, which increases the risk of latent fatalities in the affected population along the transport route. The estimated risk from these vehicle-related sources can often be as large or larger than the estimated risk associated with the material being transported. In this paper, data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study are first used to develop latent cancer fatality estimates per kilometer of travel in rural and urban areas forall diesel truck classes. These unit risk factors are based on studies investigating the carcinogenic nature of diesel exhaust. With the same methodology, the current per-kilometer latent fatality risk factor used in transportation risk assessments for heavy diesel trucks in urban areas is revised and the analysis expanded to provide risk factors for rural areas and all diesel truck classes. These latter fatality estimates may include, but are not limited to, cancer fatalities and are based primarily on the most recent epidemiological data available on mortality rates associated with ambient air PM-10 concentrations.

Notizen: Risk assessors often use different probability plots as a way to assessthe fit of a particular distribution or model by comparing the plotted points to a straight line and to obtain estimates of the parameters in parametric distributions or models. When empirical data do not fall in a sufficiently straight line on a probability plot, and when no other single parametricdistribution provides an acceptable (graphical) fit to the data, the risk assessor may consider a mixture model with two component distributions. Animated probability plots are a way to visualize the possible behaviors of mixture models with two component distributions. When no single parametric distribution provides an adequate fit to an empirical dataset, animated probability plots can help an analyst pick some plausible mixture models for the data based on their qualitative fit. After using animations during exploratory data analysis, the analyst must then use other statistical tools, including but not limited to: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to find the optimal parameters, Goodness of Fit (GoF) tests, and a variety of diagnostic plots to check the adequacy of the fit. Using a specific example with two LogNormal components, we illustrate the use of animated probability plots asa tool for exploring the suitability of a mixture model with two component distributions. Animations work well with other types of probability plots, and they may be extended to analyze mixture models with three or more component distributions.

Notizen: For carcinogens, this paper provides a quantitative examination of the roles of potency and weight-of-evidence (WOE) in setting permissible exposure limits (PELs) at the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and threshold limit values (TLVs) at the private American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). On normative grounds, both of these factors should influence choices about the acceptable level of exposures. Our major objective is to examine whether and in what ways these factors have been considered by these organizations. A lesser objective is to identify outliers, which might be candidates for further regulatory scrutiny. Our sample (N=48) includes chemicals for which EPA has estimated a unit risk as a measure of carcinogenic potency and for which OSHA or the ACGIH has a PEL or TLV. Different assessments of the strength of the evidence of carcinogenicity were obtained from EPA, ACGIH, and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We found that potency alone explains 49% of the variation in PELs and 62% of the variation in TLVs. For the ACGIH, WOE plays a much smaller role than potency. TLVs set by the ACGIH since 1989 appear to be stricter than earlier TLVs. We suggest that this change represents evidence that the ACGIH had responded to criticisms leveled at it in the late 1980s for failing to adopt sufficiently protective standards. The models developed here identify 2-nitropropane, ethylene dibromide, and chromium as having OSHA PELs significantly higher than predicted on the basis of potency and WOE.

Notizen: Much has been written about the development and application of quantitative methods for estimating under uncertainty the long-term radiological performance of underground disposal of radioactive wastes. Until recently, interest has been focused almost entirely on the technical challenges regardless of the role of the organization responsible for these analyses. Now the dialogue between regulators, the repository developer or operator, and other interested parties in the decision-making process receives increasing attention, especially in view of some current difficulties in obtaining approvals to construct or operate deep facilities for intermediate or high-level wastes. Consequently, it is timely to consider the options for regulators’review and evaluation of safety submissions, at the various stages in the site selection to repository closure process, and to consider, especially, the role for performance assessment (PA) within the programs of a regulator both before and after delivery of such a submission. The origins and broad character of present regulations in the European Union (EU) and in the OECD countries are outlined and some regulatory PA reviewed. The issues raised are discussed, especially in regard to the interpretation of regulations, the dangers from the desire for simplicity in argument, the use of regulatory PA to review and challenge the PA in the safety case, and the effects of the relationship between proponent and regulator. Finally, a very limited analysis of the role of PA in public hearings is outlined and recommendations are made, together with proposals for improving the mechanisms for international collaboration on technical issues of regulatory concern.

Notizen: In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of “waste management” should be adopted, as opposed to “waste disposal,” as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.

Notizen: Physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models are widely used to quantify whole-body kinetics of various substances. However, since they attempt to reproduce anatomical structures and physiological events, they have ahigh number of parameters. Their identification from kinetic data alone is often impossible, and other information about the parameters is needed to render the model identifiable. The most commonly used approach consists of independently measuring, or taking fom literature sources, some of the parameters, fixing them in the kinetic model, and then performing model identification on a reduced number of less certain parameters. This results in a substantial reduction of the degrees of freedom of the model. In this study, we show that this method results in final estimates of the free parameters whose precision is overestimated. We then compared this approach with an empirical Bayes approach, which takes into account not only the mean value, but also the error associated with the independently determined parameters. Blood and breath 2H8- toluene washout curves, obtained in17 subjects, were analyzed with a previously presented PBTK model suitable for person-specific dosimetry. Model parameters with the greatest effect onpredicted levels were alveolar ventilation rate QPC, fat tissue fraction VFC, blood air partition coefficient Kb, fraction of cardiac output to fat Qa/co and rate of extrahepatic metabolismVmax.p. Differences in the measured and Bayesian-fitted values of QPC, VFc and Kb were significant (p 〈 0.05), andthe precision of the fitted values Vmax.p and Qa/co went from 11 ± 5% to 75 ± 170% (NS) and from 8 ± 2% to 9 ± 2% (p 〈 0.05) respectively. The empirical Bayes approach did not result in less reliable parameter estimates: rather, it pointed out that the precision of parameter estimates can be overly optimistic when other parameters in the model, eitherdirectly measured or taken from literature sources, are treated as known without error. In conclusion, an empirical Bayes approach to parameter estimation resulted in a better model fit, different final parameter estimates, and more realistic parameter precisions.

Notizen: The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the riskof toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Notizen: During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracerpollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1,1,1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2 · 10−5μg/m3 (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5 · 10−5 and 6.5 · 10−5μg/m3), yielding a 2.6 · 10−10 carcinogenic risk (1.2 · 10−10 - 5.4 · 10−10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8 ·10−4μg/m3 (0.9 ·10−4 - 3.6 ·10−4μg/m3) and 8.6 · 10−8 (4.3 · 10−8 - 17.3 ·10−8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3 ·10−6μg/m3 (4.0 ·10−6 - 17.6 ·10−6) and 1.5 · (7.2 · 10−9 - 3.1. · 10−8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m3), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 109 between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.

Notizen: Methods of quantitative risk assessment for toxic responses that are measured on a continuous scale are not well established. Although risk-assessment procedures that attempt to utilize the quantitative information in such data have been proposed, there is no general agreement that these procedures are appreciably more efficient than common quantal dose-response procedures that operate on dichotomized continuous data. This paper points out an equivalence between the dose-response models of the nonquantal approach of Kodell and West(1)) and a quantal probit procedure, and provides results from a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare coverage probabilities of statistical lower confidence limits on dose corresponding to specified additional risk based on applying the two procedures to continuous data from a dose-response experiment. The nonquantal approach is shown to be superior, in terms of both statistical validity and statistical efficiency.

Notizen: This paper discusses a successful public involvement effort that addressed and resolved several highly controversial water management issues involving environmental and flood risks associated with an electrical generation facility in British Columbia. It begins with a discussion of concepts for designing public involvement, summarizing research that indicates why individuals and groups may find it difficult to make complex choices. Reasons for public involvement, and the range of current practices are discussed. Next, four principles for designing group decision process are outlined, emphasizing decision-aiding concepts that include “value-focused thinking” and “adaptive management.” The next sections discuss the Alouette River Stakeholder Committee process in terms of objectives, participation, process, methods for structuring values and creating alternatives, information sources, and results. Discussion and conclusions complete the paper.

Notizen: During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.

Notizen: From a comprehensive search of the literature, the hormesis phenomenon was found to occur over a wide range of chemicals, taxonomic groups, and endpoints. By use of computer searches and extensive cross-referencing, nearly 3000 potentially relevant articles were identified. Evidence of chemical and radiation hormesis was judged to have occurred in approximately 10oO of these by use of a priori criteria. These criteria included study design features (e.g., number of doses, dose range), dose-response relationship, statistical analysis, and reproducibility of results. Numerous biological endpoints were assessed, with growth responses the most prevalent, followed by metabolic effects, reproductive responses, longevity, and cancer. Hormetic responses were generally observed to be of limited magnitude with an average maximum stimulation of 30 to 60 percent over that of the controls. This maximum usually occurred 4- to 5-fold below the NOAEL for a particular endpoint. The present analysis suggests that hormesis is a reproducible and generalizable biological phenomenon and is a fundamental component of many, if not most, dose-response relationships. The relatively infrequent observation of homesis in the literature is believed to be due primarily to experimental design considerations, especially with respect to the number and range of doses and endpoint selection. Because of regulatory considerations, most toxicologic studies have been carried out at high doses above the low-dose region where the hormesis phenomenon occurs.

Notizen: As the use of digital computers for instrumentation and control of safety-critical systems has increased, there has been a growing debate over the issue of whether probabilistic risk assessment techniques can be applied to these systems. This debate has centered on the issue of whether software failures can be modeled probabilistically. This paper describes a “context-based” approach to software risk assessment that explicitly recognizes the fact that the behavior of software is not probabilistic. The source of the perceived uncertainty in its behavior results from both the input to the software as well as the application and environment in which the software is operating. Failures occur as the result of encountering some context for which the software was not properly designed, as opposed to the software simply failing “randomly.” The paper elaborates on the concept of “error-forcing context” as it applies to software. It also illustrates a methodology which utilizes event trees, fault trees, and the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) to identify “error-forcing contexts” for software in the form of fault tree prime implicants.

Notizen: Australian state and federal agencies use a broad range of methods for setting conservation priorities for species at risk. Some of these are based on rule sets developed by the International Union for the Conservation ofNature, while others use point scoring protocols to assess threat. All of them ignore uncertainty in the data. In this study, we assessed the conservation status of 29 threatened vascular plants from Tasmania and New South Wales using a variety of methods including point scoring and rule-based approaches. In addition, several methods for dealing with uncertainty in the data were applied to each of the prioritysetting schemes. The results indicatethat the choice of a protocol for setting priorities and the choice of the way in which uncertainty is treated may make important differences to the resulting assessments of risk. The choice among methods needs to be rationalized within the management context in which it is to be applied. These methods are not a substitute for more formal risk assessment.

Notizen: This paper describes a multi-stakeholder process designed to assess thepotential health risks associated with adverse air quality in an urban industrial neighborhood. The paper briefly describes the quantitative health risk assessment conducted by scientific experts, with input by a grassroots community group concerned about the impacts of adverse air quality on theirhealth and quality of life. In this case, rather than accept the views of the scientific experts, the community used their powers of perception toadvantage by successfully advocating for a professionally conducted community health survey. This survey was designed to document, systematically and rigorously, the health risk perceptions community members associated with exposure to adverse air quality in their neighborhood. This paper describes theinstitutional and community contexts within which the research is situated as well as the design, administration, analysis, and results of the community health survey administered to 402 households living in an urban industrial neighborhood in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. These survey results served tolegitimate the community's concerns about air quality and tohelp broaden operational definitions of ‘health.’ In addition, the resultsof both healthrisk assessment exercises served to keep issues of air quality on the localpolitical agenda. Implications of these findings for our understanding of theenvironmental justice process as well as the ability of communitiesto influence environmental health policy are discussed.

Notizen: Psychometric data on risk perceptions are often collected using the method developed by Slovic, Fischhoff, and Lichtenstein, where an array of risk issues are evaluated with respect to a number of risk characteristics, such as how dreadful, catastrophic or involuntary exposure to each risk is. The analysis of these data has often been carried out at an aggregate level, where mean scores for all respondents are compared between risk issues. However, this approach may conceal important variation between individuals, and individual analyses have also been performed for single risk issues. This paper presents a new methodological approach using a technique called multilevel modelling for analysing individual and aggregated responses simultaneously, to produce unconditional and unbiased results at both individual and aggregate levels of the data. Two examples are given using previously published data sets on risk perceptions collected by the authors, and results between the traditional and new approaches compared. The discussion focuses on the implications of and possibilities provided by the new methodology.

Notizen: In north-central Wopmay Orogen, syntectonic low-P(Buchan-type) suites of mineral isograds outline regional metamorphic temperature culminations that are associated, at the higher structural levels, with emplacement of early Proterozoic plutons in the west part of a deformed and eastward transported continental margin prism. The mapped isograds mark the first occurrence of biotite, staurolite, andalusite, sillimanite, sillimanite-K feldspar and K feldspar-plagioclase-quartz ± muscovite (granitic) pods in metapelites, with increasing proximity to the plutons.Microprobe analyses and field observations have resulted in the formulation of reactions for the ‘ideal’pelitic system K2O-Na2O-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O, to account for the various mineral assemblages of each metamorphic zone. A P-T petrogenetic grid showing erosion surface P-T curves for the northern Wopmay Orogen pelites, compiled on the basis of the mapped isograds and the inferred reaction(s) for each metamorphic zone, documents a variation in exposed metamorphic pressure ranging between 2 and 4 kbar.The configuration of a new bathograd, based on the invariant model reaction sillimanite + K feldspar + plagioclase + biotite + quartz + vapor ± muscovite + liquid and interpolated across three metamorphic suites, is consistent with a major regional structure culmination and with independently determined pressures obtained from anorthite-grossular-quartz-Al2SiO5 geobarometry. The positive correlation between the configuration of the bathograd and the structural and pressure culmination points to the pressure-dependence of anatectic-granitic-pod mineral associations.

Notizen: Variations in assemblage and composition of the constituent minerals in basic and intermediate metavolcanics encountered in the Zarouchla Group of the Phyllite-Quartzite Series are consistent with a progressive sequence, corresponding to temperature conditions estimated at 290-380°C (minimum values) under a total pressure greater than 3°5kbar and possibly as high as 5 kbar. In the absence of more critical evidence, the parageneses recorded in the metavolcanic rocks are interpreted as belonging to a prograde facies series from the lawsonite-albitechlorite facies through the pumpellyite-actinolite facies to the greenschist facies. The present distribution of mineral assemblages does not show a simple increase of metamorphic grade in a given direction but is apparently related to the tectonic evolution of the metamorphic sequence.

Notizen: Abstract Mylonites from shear zones cutting Hercynian gneisses in the central Pyrenees have been studied in thin section and using the electron microprobe. The shear zones contain retrogressive greenschist facies assemblages implying introduction of an aqueous fluid during deformation in the zones. Textural evidence suggests that fluid-rock interaction occurred throughout the active life of the shear zones.Whole-rock chemical changes during deformation are documented in a variety of mylonitic lithologies and retrogressed country rocks. The overall effect was to reduce chemical differences between lithologies. Activity diagrams show that this would be expected if a hydrous fluid was circulating between different lithologies during deformation. In most cases fluid/rock ratios were relatively small resulting in gradual chemical changes and repeated recrystallization. ‘Open-system’behaviour with reduction in the number of phases is seen in some granite mylonites, suggesting focusing of fluid movement in parts of the shear zones. Continual fluid-rock interaction may have led to reaction-enhanced ductility in the shear zones over a long period of time. The source of fluid is uncertain, but may be related to underthrusting of material beneath the area investigated.

Notizen: Abstract The hornblende-bearing basic gneisses in the Uvete area, central Kenya, were metamorphosed under a narrow range of P and T (6.5 ± 0.5kbar and 530 ± 40°C) of the staurolitekyanite zone in the Mozambique metamorphic belt. They show a wide variety of divariant and trivariant mineral assemblages consisting of hornblende, cumminatonite, gedrite, anthophyllite, chlorite, garnet, epidote, clinopyroxene, plagio-clase and quartz. The bulk and mineral chemistries and the graphical representation of phase relations show that each mineral assemblage approaches chemical equilibrium and defines a unique composition volume in the A′(Al + Fe3+− (13/7)Na)-F(Fe2+)-M′(Mg)-C′(Ca-(3/7)Na) tetrahedron. The composition volumes are distributed quite regularly and do not overlap each other.The phase relations in the Uvete area are in contrast with those in the staurolite-kyanite zone amphibolites in the Mt. Cube quadrangle, Vermont. The amphibolites there contain low-variance mineral assemblages formed under different values of μH2O and μCO2. These assemblages define overlapping composition volumes in the A′-F′-M′-C’tetrahedron.The mineral assemblages in the Uvete area are interpreted as having formed in equilibrium with fluid at a high and nearly constant μH2O value. Such a fluid composition was externally controlled by the supply of H2O-rich fluid expelled from the surrounding pelitic and psammitic rocks. The body size of the basic gneisses in the Uvete area (less than 400m in thickness) was small enough for the fluid to migrate completely.

Notizen: Abstract Blueschist-facies rocks on the Seward Peninsula constitute a structurally coherent terrane measuring at least 100 × 150 km. Radiometric age data indicate that high-pressure metamorphism probably occurred in Jurassic rather than in Palaeozoic or Precambrian time, as previously suggested. Protolith sediments (Nome Group) are of intracontinental basin or continental margin type, and of lower Palaeozoic and possibly late Precambrian age, thus predating the high pressure metamorphism by more than 200 m.y.Blueschist-facies mineral assemblages were developed in almost all lithologies of the Nome Group, and are best preserved in FeTi-rich metabasites (glaucophane + almandine + epidote) and pelites (glaucophane + chloritoid + phengite). A lawsonite–crossite subfacies was developed in possible Nome Group rocks on the east flank of the Darby Mountains. Albite–epidote–amphibolite facies assemblages characterize Nome Group rocks in the southwestern part of the Peninsula. Metamorphism in the central zone of the terrane passed from early lawsonitic to subsequent epidote–almandine–glaucophane schist subfacies with the local development (east of the Nome River) of eclogitic assemblages.The high pressure metamorphic minerals were synkinematic with the development of mesoscopic-scale intrafolial isoclinal folds and a flattening foliation of consistent orientation. Initiation of uplift probably corresponded to the growth of barroisite rims on earlier sodic and actinolitic amphiboles, and partial post-kinematic greenschist facies replacements record later stages of decompression. Ophiolites and melange are not associated with the Seward Peninsula blueschists. The high-pressure metamorphism was caused by tectonic loading of a continental plate by an allochthon of indeterminate origin. The PT conditions of high pressure metamorphism were approximately 9–11 kbar, 400–450°C, thus falling between the PT paths of the Shuksan and Franciscan terranes.

Notizen: Abstract Two periods of garnet growth (Gt1 and Gt2) have been found in the Finnmarkian nappes of north Norway. In the Kolvik Nappe (the lowest nappe) Gt1 has preserved an S2 syntectonic spiral inclusion fabric; in the Olderfjord Nappe an earlier S1 fabric and an interkinematic inter-D1–D2 fabric have been preserved in Gt1 whilst only the S1 fabric has been found in Gt1 in the Brennsvik Nappe (the highest nappe). In each nappe Gt2 overgrew a penetrative fabric (S2) wrapped around Gt1. In the Kolvik Nappe inclusion fabrics may be continuous from Gt1 into Gt2 but in the higher nappes there is a distinct break. Gt2 may have been partially syntectonic with D3 in the Brennsvik Nappe.Chemically Gt1 in the Kolvik Nappe and in parts of the Olderfjord and Brennsvik Nappes has antithetic Fe-Mn zoning. In all nappes XCa and XMg are weakly zoned in Gt1; XMg increases outwards and is greater in the higher nappes in Gt1 suggesting higher nucleation temperatures. In the Olderfjord and Brennsvik Nappes Gt2 is marked by increasing XCa, probably due to changing garnet-plagioclase equilibria, although the Fe/Mg ratio remains constant. XMg is higher in Gt2 than Gt1.Basement rocks within the nappe pile have an early pre-Finnmarkian growth (Gt1) and a later Finnmarkian growth (GtH) correlated with Gt2 on the basis of chemical zoning patterns.The diachroneity of Gt1 is ascribed to progressively earlier (compared to the structural development) cessation of overstepping of garnet-forming reactions before peak metamorphism in the higher nappes, resulting in earlier structural events being preserved.

Notizen: Abstract Fluid inclusion studies of rocks from the late Archaean amphibolite-facies to granulite-facies transition zone of southern India provide support for the hypothesis that CO2,-rich H2O-poor fluids were a major factor in the origin of the high-grade terrain. Charnockites, closely associated leucogranites and quartzo-feldspathic veins contain vast numbers of large CO2-rich inclusions in planar arrays in quartz and feldspar, whereas amphibole-bearing gray gneisses of essentially the same compositions as adjacent charnockites in mixed-facies quarries contain no large fluid inclusions. Inclusions in the northernmost incipient charnockites, as at Kabbal, Karnataka, occasionally contain about 25 mol. % of immiscible H2O lining cavity walls, whereas inclusions from the charnockite massif terrane farther south do not have visibile H2OMicrothermometry of CO2 inclusions shows that miscible CH4 and N2 must be small, probably less than 10mol.%combined. Densities of CO2 increase steadily from north to south across the transitional terrane. Entrapment pressures calculated from the CO2 equation of state range from 5 kbar in the north to 7.5 kbar in the south at the mineralogically inferred average metamorphic temperature of 750°C, in quantitative agreement with mineralogic geobarometry. This agreement leads to the inference that the fluid inclusions were trapped at or near peak metamorphic conditions.Calculations on the stability of the charnockite assemblage biotite-orthopyroxene-K-feldspar-quartz show that an associated fluid phase must have less than 0.35 H2O activity at the inferred P and T conditions, which agrees with the petrographic observations. High TiO2 content of biotite stabilizes it to lower H2O activities, and the steady increase of biotite TiO2 southward in the area suggests progressive decrease of aH2O with increasing grade. Oxygen fugacities calculated from orthopyroxene-magnetite-quartz are considerably higher than the graphite CO2-O2 buffer, which explains the absence of graphite in the charnockites.The present study quantifies the nature of the vapours in the southern India granulite metamorphism. It remains to be determined whether CO2-flushing of the crust can, by itself, create large terranes of largeion lithophile-depleted granulites, or whether removal of H2O-bearing anatectic melts is essential.

Notizen: Abstract There are discrete masses of un-deformed metabasite within the blueschist series of the island of Syros. Greece. Around the margins of these masses are zonal sequences through rocks showing intracrystalline deformation but without a geometric fabric, to rocks with discrete and anastomosing shear zones, and finally to penetratively foliated rocks with isolated relics of the original undeformed texture. Textural relics suggest that this spatial sequence is at least qualitatively also a temporal sequence.This progressive shear zone deformation took place concurrently with a glaucophane-epidote to eclogite reaction. The reaction pathways in the rocks that underwent the shear zone deformation can be compared with those in rocks of a similar composition that suffered a longer deformation history and show no relics of an undeformed parent. Although the final assemblages are in both cases the same, the pathways are different. These differences are in part related to reactions promoted by the change from local to bulk equilibrium on the onset of deformation in the rocks. They are also related to the crystallization and later breakdown during the sequence of progressive equilibration of a metastable phase, in this case an impure glaucophane.

Notizen: Abstract The Rockley Volcanics from near Oberon, New South Wales occur within the aureole of the Carboniferous Bathurst Batholith and have been contact metamorphosed at P ∼ 100 ± 50MPa (10.5kbar) and a maximum T ∼ 565°C in the presence of a C–O–H fluid. Prior to contact metamorphism the volcanics were regionally metamorphosed and altered with the extensive development of actinolite, chlorite, plagioclase, quartz and calcite. The contact metamorphosed equivalents of these rocks have been subdivided into: Ca-poor (cordierite + gedrite), Mg-rich (amphibole + olivine + spinel), mafic (amphibole + plagioclase) and Ca-rich (amphibole + garnet + diopside; diopside + plagioclase; garnet + diopside + wollastonite) rocks.The chemistry of the minerals in the hornfelses was controlled by the bulk rock chemistry and fluid composition. Pargasites and hastingsites as well as an unusual phlogopite with blue green pleochroism, are found in Ca-rich hornfelses. A comparison of the assemblages with experimentally derived equilibria suggests that the fluid phase associated with the Ca-rich hornfelses was water-rich (Xco2= 0.1 to 0.3) while that associated with the Mg-rich hornfelses was enriched in CO2 (Xco2 〉 0.7). The different hornfels types have reacted to contact metamorphism independently in both their solid and fluid chemistries.

Notizen: Abstract A garnet–hornblende Fe–Mg exchange geothermometer has been calibrated against the garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometer of Ellis & Green (1979) using data on coexisting garnet + hornblende + clinopyroxene in amphibolite and granulite facies metamorphic assemblages. Data for the Fe–Mg exchange reaction between garnet and hornblende have been fitted to the equation. In KD=Δ (XCa,g) where KD is the Fe–Mg distribution coefficient, using a robust regression approach, giving a thermometer of the form: with very satisfactory agreement between garnet–hornblende and garnet–clinopyroxene temperatures. The thermometer is applicable below about 850°C to rocks with Mn-poor garnet and common hornblende of widely varying chemistry metamorphosed at low aO2.Application of the garnet–hornblende geothermometer to Dalradian garnet amphibolites gives temperatures in good agreement with those predicted by pelite petrogenetic grids, ranging from 520°C for the lower garnet zone to 565–610°C for the staurolite to kyanite zones. These results suggest that systematic errors introduced by closure temperature problems in the application of the garnet–clinopyroxene geothermometer to the ‘calibration’data set are not serious. Application to ‘eclogitic’garnet amphibolites suggests that garnet and hornblende seldom attain Fe–Mg exchange equilibrium in these rocks.Quartzo-feldspathic and mafic schists of the Pelona Schist on Sierra Pelona, Southern California, were metamorphosed under high pressure greenschist, epidote–amphibolite and (oligoclase) amphibolite facies beneath the Vincent Thrust at pressures deduced to be 10±1 kbar using the phengite geobarometer, and 8–9kbar using the jadeite content of clinopyroxene in equilibrium with oligoclase and quartz. Application of the garnet–hornblende thermometer gives temperatures ranging from about 480°C at the garnet isograd through 570°C at the oligoclase isograd to a maximum of 620–650°C near the thrust. Inverted thermal gradients beneath the Vincent Thrust were in the range 170 to 250°C per km close to the thrust.

Notizen: Cool smoke treatments were applied to unmined Eucalyptus marginata (jarrah) forest soils, rehabilitated bauxite mine soils, and broadcast seed to determine if enhancement in germination could be effected with a view toward maximizng the establishment of species in bauxite mines in Western Australia.Forest sites showed a 48-fold increase in total germinants from the soil seed bank when treated with aerosol smoke. Newly returned bauxite mine soils showed a greater than threefold increase in total germinants after the same treatment. There were also significant increases in the number of species germinating in response to the aerosol smoke treatment in both the forest and the mined soils. Similarly, application of smoked water to the soil seed bank in previously mined sites elicited a significant positive germination response, increasing total germinants and species numbers by 56 and 33%, respectively.Treatment of mixed seed lots with aerosol smoke before broadcast resulted in highly significant improvement in germination when compared to untreated seed. Both total number of germinants, and number of species emerging from mined sites were positively influenced (85% and 34% increases, respectively).Ten target species were used to determine the relative effectiveness of different methods of smoke treatment on the germination of broadcast seed. Nine of the species involved displayed a promotive effect with at least two of the treatments. Generally, however, aerosol smoking of seed before broadcast proved to be the more effective approach. As a result of these findings, all broadcast seed for use in Alcoa's bauxite mined areas in the southwest of Western Australia is now routinely smoke treated before application.

Notizen: Understanding Cladium jamaicense (sawgrass) seedling establishment is an important component of an Everglades restoration program because the degree of sawgrass recovery and concurrent Typha domingensis (cattail) decline will be used to evaluate restoration success. To understand sawgrass recovery at locations with increased soil nutrients, we tested the effects of transplanting sawgrass seedlings to pots at different densities and investigated how nutrient additions affect seedling growth. Survivorship of seedlings transplanted into moist commercial potting soil at three densities ranged from 61% to 95%. After 6 months, maximum survivorship (90%) occurred at medium densities (2–4 seedlings per pot 16 cm in diameter). Nutrient additions, totaling 6.5 N g/m2, 9.8 P g/m2, 6.5 g/m2, were applied approximately 4 months after seedlings were transplanted. The biomass of the plants receiving nutrient additions (pulsed) was significantly higher (by over 30%) than plants with no nutrient addition (control). Photosynthetic rates for nutrient-enriched plants (measured 6-weeks after the nutrient additions) were significantly greater (by 32–45%) than for control plants. Instantaneous leaf water use efficiency increased significantly (by more than 20%) in pulsed plants. The results suggest that preventing root damage is crucial for the success of trans planted sawgrass seedlings and that nutrient additions enhanced seedling growth.

Notizen: I evaluated responses by 16 native woody species to differential soil compaction and density of ground cover. The trees and shrubs studied represent sites in southern Illinois that commonly have restrictions to root growth from soil or drainage conditions. The study site was a restored surface coal mine in southern Illinois with a rooting medium compacted by grading and a dense ground cover of pasture species. Soil compaction was alleviated in half the study area before tree planting by mechanically ripping the soil to a depth of 1.2 m. Roots of half the trees and shrubs were dipped in a Terra® slurry before planting, and the ground cover around all planting spots was afterwards sprayed with herbicide. In year 2 after planting the ground cover in half of the unripped and half of the ripped area was further controlled by repeated application of herbicides. Ripping significantly increased height growth of all trees combined and all species individually in each year of the study. Second-year control of ground cover increased height growth of all trees combined and of seven species individually. Some species were damaged by herbicides. Terra® had little evident effect on species performance. Animal damage reduced early survival and growth, especially of Acer (maple) and Cornus (dogwood) species, and later growth of Quercus rubra (red oak). Removal of ground cover with herbicides tended to increase deer browse. Soil ripping, herbicide application, and choosing tree species unattractive to deer can be recommended to increase success in planting trees for forest restoration.

Notizen: Woodlands dominated by Eucalyptus spp. in temperate southeastern and southwestern Australia have been extensively cleared for agriculture and are often badly degraded by livestock grazing. This has resulted in the loss of biodiversity and widespread land degradation. The continuing decline of these woodlands has become a concern for the conservation of biodiversity, and there is a growing interest among farmers, land managers, and researchers in developing techniques for restoring them. Currently few scientific guidelines exist for undertaking woodland restoration programs. We use a state and transition model to develop hypotheses on restoration strategies for salmon gum (Eucalyptus salmonophloia) woodlands. We consider that this approach provides a suitable framework for organizing knowledge and identifying areas where further information is needed, and hence provides a useful starting point for a restoration program. The model has the potential to provide a tool for land managers with which they can assess the action and effort needed to undertake woodland restoration in agricultural landscapes.

Notizen: Most of the world's forest has been cleared, cultivated, and then often abandoned. In many instances these areas have changed to successionally arrested grasslands, shrublands, or fernlands maintained by frequent fires and high herbivore populations. Many studies have shown that various herbaceous, nitrogen-fixing legumes can protect soil surfaces, retain soil moisture, improve soil fertility, and retard ground fires. Our objective was to ascertain if some of these species can potentially inhibit herbivory and satisfactorily establish in these arrested grassland areas to serve as sites for reforestation. We evaluated the potential for four species of nitrogen-fixing legumes (Calapogonium mucunoides, Centrosema pubescens, Desmodium ovalifolium, and Pueraria phaseoloides) to establish on exposed soil within successionally arrested grasslands of Panicum maximum and Cymbopogon nardus in the central hills of Sri Lanka. Four different sites within rectangular grassland areas were cleared of graminoids and sown with seed of each legume. Half of each clearing was protected from browsing rabbits and porcupines, and half was not protected. After 6 months, certain plots were destructively sampled to determine dry biomass gain for each species and treatment. Analyses of variance were performed to test for differences among sites, treatments, and species. All three factors revealed differences, indicating that species must be matched to site. On sites with high amounts of herbivory, D. ovalifolium had the greatest dry biomass gain after 6 months of growth, possibly because of its relatively low nitrogen and moisture content. Where herbivory was absent, P. phaseoloides and C. muconoides had the greatest dry biomass gain. Dry biomass gain of all four legume ground covers was low on sites with lowest pH and nutrient concentrations. Under conditions of low relative fertility and low pH, establishment of the tested legumes failed. Though soil moisture availability was not measured, we speculate that these low fertility sites were also prone to drought. Findings support the site-specific establishment of legume species for purposes of reforestation and watershed protection in central Sri Lanka. This work is applicable to other regions particularly dominated by successionally arrested grasslands with similar circumstances in other parts of south and southeast Asia.

Notizen: Oyster cultch was added to the lower intertidal fringe of three created Spartina alterniflora marshes to examine its value in protecting the marsh from erosion. Twelve 5-m-wide plots were established at each site, with six randomly selected plots unaltered (non-cultched) and cultch added to the remaining (cultched) plots. Within each cultched plot, cultch was placed along the low tide fringe of the marsh during July 1992, in a band 1.5 m wide by 0.25 m deep. Marsh-edge vegetation stability and sediment erosion were measured for each plot from September 1992 to April 1994. Significant differences (p 〈 0.05) in marsh-edge vegetation change were detected at the only south-facing site after a major southwester storm. Significantly different rates of sediment erosion and accretion also were observed at this same site. Areas upland of the marsh edge in the cultched areas showed an average accretion of 6.3 cm, while noncultched treatment areas showed an average loss of 3.2 cm. A second site, with a northern orientation, also experienced differential sediment accretion and erosion between treatment type, caused instead by boat wakes that were magnified by the abutment of a dredge effluent pipe across the entire front fringe of the site. During this period we observed significant differences in sediment accumulation, with the areas upland of the marsh edge in the cultched treatment having an average accretion of 2.9 cm and the noncultched an average loss of 1.3 cm.

Notizen: Books reviewed in this article: The Significance and Regulation of Soil Biodiversity. Harold P. Collins, G. Philip Robertson, and Michael J. Klug, editors

Notizen: Food-related illness in the United States is estimated to affect over six million people per year and cost the economy several billion dollars. These illnesses and costs could be reduced if minimum infectious doses were established and used as the basis of regulations and monitoring. However, standard methodologies for dose-response assessment are not yet formulated for microbial risk assessment. The objective of this study was to compare dose response models for food-borne pathogens and determine which models were most appropriate for a range of pathogens. The statistical models proposed in the literature and chosen for comparison purposes were log-normal,(19) log-logistic,(17) exponential,(7,9,17)ß-Poisson(7,9,18) and Welbull-Gamma.(3) These were fit to four data sets also taken from published literature, Shigella fiexneri,(9,12,13)Shigella dysenteriae,(9,11)Campylobacter jejuni,(15,16) and Salmonella typhosa,(7,14) usingthe method of maximum likelihood. The Weibull-gamma, the only model with three parameters, was also the only model capable of fitting all the data sets examined using the maximum likelihood estimation for comparisons. Infectious doses were also calculated using each model. Within any given data set, the infectious dose estimated to affect one percent of the population ranged from one order of magnitude to as much as nine orders of magnitude, illustrating the differences in extrapolation of the dose response models. More data are needed to compare models and examine extrapolation from high to low doses for food-borne pathogens.

Notizen: Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to huma health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted withthe purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.

Notizen: Five atmospheric transport models were evaluated for use in Phase I1 ofthe Historical Public Exposures Studies at the Rocky Flats Plant. Models included a simple straight-line Gaussian plume model (ISCST2), several integrated puff models (RATCHET, TRIAD, and INPUFF2), and a complex terrain mode (TRAC). Evaluations were based on how well model predictions compared with sulfur hexafluoride tracer measurements taken in the vicinity of Rocky Flats in February 1991. Twelve separate tracer experiments were conducted, eac lasting 9 hr and measured at 140 samplers in arcs 8 and 16 km from the release point at Rocky Flats. Four modeling objectives were defined based on the endpoints of the overall study: (1) the unpaired maximum hourly average concentration, (2) paired time-averaged concentration, (3) unpaired time-averaged concentration, and (4) arc-integrated concentration. Performance measures were used to evaluate models and focused on the geometric mean and standard deviation of the predicted-to-observed ratio and the correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations. No one model consistently outperformed the others in all modeling objectives and performance measures. About 75% of the maximum hourly concentration predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observations. About 64% of the paired and 80% of the unpaired time-averaged model predictions were within a factor of 5 of theobservations. The overall performance of the RATCHET model was somewhat better than the other models. All models appeared to experience difficulty defining plume trajectories, which was attributed to the influence of multilayered flow initiated by terrain complexities and the diurnal flow patterns characteristic of the Colorado Front Range.

Notizen: Calculation of accident dose-risk estimates with the RADTRAN code requires input data describing the population likely to be affected by the plumeof radioactive material (RAM) released in a hypothetical transportation accident. In the existing model, population densities within 1/2 mile (0.8 km)of the route centerline are tabulated in three ranges (Rural, Suburban, andUrban). These population densities may be of questionable validity since the plume in the RADTRAN analysis is assumed to extend out to 120 km from thehypothetical accident site. We present a GIs-based population model which accounts for the actual distribution of population under a potential plume, and compare accident-risk estimates based on the resulting population densities with those based on the existing model. Results for individual points along a route differ greatly, but the cumulative accident risks for a sample route of a few hundred kilometers are found to be comparable, if not identical. We conclude, therefore, that for estimation of aggregate accident risks over typical routes of several hundred kilometers, the existing, simpler RADTRAN model is sufficiently detailed and accurate.

Notizen: This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor-mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Notizen: Rational decision making requires that the total uncertainty about a variate of interest (a predictand) be quantified in terms of a probability distribution, conditional on all available information and knowledge. Supposethe state-of-knowledge is embodied in a deterministic model, which is imperfect and outputs only an estimate of the predictand. Fundamentals are presented of two Bayesian methods for producing a probabilistic forecast via anydeterministic model. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF) quantifies the total uncertainty in terms of a posterior distribution, conditional on model output. The Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) decomposes the total uncertainty into input uncertainty and model uncertainty, which are characterized independently and then integrated into a predictive distribution. The BFS is compared with Monte Carlo simulation and “ensemble forecasting” technique, none of which can alone produce a probabilistic forecast that quantifies the total uncertainty, but each can serve as a component of the BFS.

Notizen: This article describes an application of a method for assessing risks associated with the introduction of an organism into a new environment. The test organism was a binucleate Rhizoctonia fungal isolate that has potential for commercial development as a biological control agent for damping-off diseases in bedding plants. A test sample of host plant species was selected using the centrifugal phylogenetic host range principles, but with an emphasis on economic species. The effect of the fungus on the plant was measured for each species and expressed on a logarithmic scale. The effects on weights of shoots and roots per container were not normally distributed, nor were the effects on the number of plants standing (those which survived). Statements about the effect on the number standing and the shoot weight per container involved using the observed (empirical) distribution. This is illustrated with an example. Problems were encountered in defining the population of species at risk, and in deciding how this population should be formally sampled. The limitations of the method are discussed.

Notizen: The heuristic-systematic information processing model (HSM) holds that individuals will use one or both of these modes of information processing when attempting to evaluate information in order to arrive at a judgment. Systematic processing is defined by effortful scrutiny and comparison of information, whereas heuristic processing is defined by the use of cues to amve more easily at a judgment. Antecedents to the two processing modes include information sufficiency, motivation, and self-efficacy. Structural equation modeling is used to examine competing configuration of this model and to evaluate the model as appropriate for predicting risk judgment. The model also is evaluated across three groups that vary with respect to their level of concern. These analyses are executed within a case study involving an epidemiological investigation of a suspected cancer cluster. The analysis confirms the HSM's theoretically proposed structure and shows it to be a useful vehicle for evaluating risk judgment. In the overall analysis, antecedent variables generally function as specified by theory. Systematic processing is predicted by greater motivation. Heuristic processing is predicted by information sufficiency. Self-efficacy is a significant predictor of both processing modes. And heuristic processing is shown to be associated with judgment of less risk. However, when the analysis is contrasted across three groups (those concerned about cancer, not concerned and uncertain) it is shown that the model is significantly more robust for the uncertain group. This finding may have implications for the use of the HSM in risk research specifically, and in field research generally.

Notizen: South Carolina has issued fish consumption advisories for the Savannah River based on mercury and radionuclide levels. We examine differences in fishing rates and fish consumption of 258 people interviewed while fishing along the Savannah River, as a function of age, education, ethnicity, employment history, and income, and test the assumption that the average consumption of fish is less than the recreational value of 19 kg/year assumed by risk assessors. Ethnicity and education contributed significantly to explaining variations in number of fish meals per month, serving size, and total quantity of fish consumed per year. Blacks fished more often, ate more fish meals of slightly larger serving sizes, and consumed more fish per year than did Whites. Although education and income were correlated, education contributed most significantly to behavior; people who did not graduate from high school ate fish more often, ate more fish per year, and ate more whole fish than people who graduated from high school. Computing consumption of fish for each person individually indicates that (1) people who eat fish more often also eat larger portions, (2) a substantial number of people consume more than the amount of fish used to compute risk to recreational fishermen, (3) some people consume more than the subsistence level default assumption (50 kglyear) and (4) Blacks consume more fish per year than Whites, putting them at greater risk from contaminants in fish. Overall, ethnicity, age, and education contributed to variations in fishing behavior and consumption.

Notizen: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.

Notizen: Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations. The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.

Notizen: We investigated the way results of human health risk assessments are used, and the theory used to describe those methods, sometimes called the “NAS paradigm.” Contrary to a key tenet of that theory, current methods have strictly limited utility. The characterizations now considered standard, Safety Indices such as “Acceptable Daily Intake,”“Reference Dose,” and so on, usefully inform only decisions that require a choice between two policy alternatives (e.g., approve a food additive or not), decided solely on the basis of a finding of safety. Riskis characterized as the quotient of one of these Safety Indices divided by an estimate of exposure: a quotient greater than one implies that the situation may be considered safe. Such decisions are very widespread, both in the U. S. federal government and elsewhere. No current method is universal; different policies lead to different practices, for example, in California's “Proposition 65,” where statutory provisions specify some practices. Further, an important kind of human health risk assessment is not recognized by this theory: this kind characterizes risk as likelihood of harm, given estimates of exposure consequent to various decision choices. Likelihood estimates are necessary whenever decision makers have many possible decision choices and must weigh more than two societal values, such as in EPA's implementation of “conventional air pollutants.” These estimates can not be derived using current methods; different methods are needed. Our analysis suggests changes needed in both the theory and practice of human health risk assessment, and how what is done is depicted.

Notizen: The prominent role of animal bioassay evidence in environmental regulatory decisions compels a careful characterization of extrapolation uncertainties. In noncancer risk assessment, uncertainty factors are incorporated to account for each of several extrapolations required to convert a bioassay outcome into a putative subthreshold dose for humans. Measures of relative toxicity taken between different dosing regimens, different endpoints, or different species serve as a reference for establishing the uncertainty factors. Ratios of no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) have been used for this purpose; statistical summaries of such ratios across sets of chemicals are widely used to guide the setting of uncertainty factors. Given the poor statistical properties of NOAELs, the informativeness of these summary statistics is open to question. To evaluate this, we develop an approach to “calibrate” the ability of NOAEL ratios to reveal true properties of a specified distribution for relative toxicity. A priority of this analysis is to account for dependencies of NOAEL ratios on experimental design and other exogenous factors. Our analysis of NOAEL ratio summary statistics finds (1) that such dependencies are complex and produce pronounced systematic errors and (2) that sampling error associated with typical sample sizes (50 chemicals) is nonnegligible. These uncertainties strongly suggest that NOAEL ratio summary statistics cannot be taken at face value; conclusions based on such ratios reported in well over a dozen published papers should be reconsidered.

Notizen: We compare the regulatory implications of applying the traditional (linearized) and exact two-stage dose-response models to animal carcinogenic data. We analyze dose-response data from six studies, representing five different substances, and we determine the “goodness- of-fit” of each model as well as the 95% confidence lower limit ofthe dose corresponding to a target excess risk of 10-5 (the target risk doseTRD). For the two concave datasets, we find that the exact model gives a substantially better fit to the data than the traditional model, and that the exact model gives aTRD that is an order of magnitude lower than that given by the traditional model. In the other cases, the exact model gives a fit equivalent to or better than the traditional model. We also show that although the exact two-stage model may exhibit dose-response concavity at moderate dose levels, it is always linear or sublinear, and never supralinear, in the low-dose limit. Because regulatory concern is almost always confined to the low-dose region extrapolation, supralinear behavior seems not to be of regulatory concern in the exact two-stage model. Finally, we find that when performing this low-dose extrapolation in cases of dose-response concavity, extrapolating the model fit leads to a more conservative TRD than taking a linear extrapolation from 10% excess risk. We conclude with a set of recommendations.

Notizen: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.

Notizen: In any model the values of estimates for various parameters are obtained from different sources each with its own level of uncertainty. When the probability distributions of the estimates are obtained as opposed to point values only, the measurement uncertainties in the parameter estimates may be addressed. However, the sources used for obtaining the data and the models used to select appropriate distributions are of differing degrees of uncertainty. A hierarchy of different sources of uncertainty based upon one's ability to validate data and models empirically is presented. When model parameters are aggregated with different levels of the hierarchy represented, this implies distortion or degradation in the utility and validity of the models used. Means to identify and deal with such heterogeneous data sourcesare explored, and a number of approaches to addressing this problem is presented. One approach, using Range/confidence Estimates coupled with an Information Value Analysis Process, is presented as an example.

Notizen: Variability arises due to differences in the value of a quantity among different members of a population. Uncertainty arises due to lack of knowledge regarding the true value of a quantity for a given member of a population. We describe and evaluate two methods for quantifying both variability and uncertainty. These methods, bootstrapsimulation and a likelihood-based method, are applied to three datasets. The datasetsinclude a synthetic sample of 19 values from a Lognormal distribution, a sample of nine values obtained from measurements of the PCB concentration in leafy produce, and asample of five values for the partitioning of chromium in the flue gas desulfurization system of coal-fired power plants. For each of these datasets, we employ the two methods to characterize uncertainty in the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, cumulative distribution functions based upon fitted parametric distributions, the 95th percentile of variability, and the 63rd percentile of uncertainty for the 81st percentile of variability. The latter is intended to show that it is possible to describe anypoint within the uncertain frequency distribution by specifying an uncertainty percentile and a Variability percentile. Using the bootstrap method, we compare results based upon use of the method of matching moments and the method of maximum likelihood for fitting distributions to data. Our results indicate that with only 5-19 data pointsas in the datasets we have evaluated, there is substantial uncertainty based upon random sampling error. Both the boostrap and likelihood-based approaches yield comparable uncertainty estimates in most cases.

Notizen: Coexisting Ca-poor and Ca-rich pyroxenes in granulites at Cape Riche, in the Precambrian Albany-Fraser Province, Western Australia, are dominantly chemically homogeneous within individual samples, suggesting a major episode of equilibration. However, occasional grains in a few samples contain exsolved domains interpreted as relics of an earlier, higher-T assemblage. Pyroxene pairs in ten, presumably isothermal, samples from a restricted area are used to (i) assess the suitability of several versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer for application to metamorphic rocks, and (ii) determine the thermal history of the Cape Riche pyroxenes.The various versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer applied to the well-equilibrated homogeneous pyroxene grains show poor to good precision and yield mean temperatures varying widely from 683° to 893°C, in the following order of increasing T: Lindsley (1983; opx version), 683°± 11°C; Kretz (1982; KD version), 705°± 19°C; Ross & Huebner (1975), 709°± 30°C; Kretz (1982; solvus version), 735°± 24°C; Fonarev & Graphchikov (1982; opx version), 〈750°C; Lindsley (1983; cpx version), 784°± 40°C; Fonarev & Graphchikov (1982; cpx version), ~820°± 30°C; Wood & Banno (1973), 849°± 16°C; Powell (1978), 854°± 23°C; Wells (1977), 893°± 10°C. Independent T estimates, based on mafic assemblages and garnet-biotite thermometry, suggest that the major episode of metamorphism occurred at 700-800°C (P ~ 5 kbar). Therefore the Wells, Powell, Wood & Banno and Fonarev & Graphchikov (cpx) temperatures are almost certainly too high. In the absence of a more precise independent T estimate it is difficult to assess the relative merits of the results obtained from the remaining versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer, none of which can be unequivocally demonstrated to be seriously in error, though the Lindsley (opx) T is probably too low. Other significant shortcomings evident in the results include the relatively poor precision obtained from the three methods based on purely graphical representation of the augite limb of the solvus (i.e., the Ross & Huebner, Fonarev & Graphchikov (cpx) and Lindsley (cpx) versions), and the apparent dependence of derived T on Mg/Fe2+ ratio for the Powell, Wood & Banno and Lindsley (cpx) methods.For the bulk compositions of exsolved domains, the different versions of the two-pyroxene thermometer yield mean temperatures 23° to 82°C (overall mean, 65°C) higher than for homogeneous grains in the same samples. These exsolved domains are interpreted as relics of a higher-T (peak?) metamorphic assemblage, rather than an igneous precursor.

Notizen: This work presents the results of a fluid inclusion study of an amphibolite-granulite facies transition in West Uusimaa, S.W. Finland. Early fluid-inclusions in the granulite facies area are characteristically carbonic (CO2), in contrast to predominantly aqueous early inclusions in the amphibolite facies area. These early inclusions can be related to peak metamorphic conditions (750-820°C and 3-5 kbar for peak granulite facies metamorphism). Relatively young CO2 inclusions with low densities (〈0.8g/cm3) indicate that the first part of the cooling history of the rocks was characterized by a near isothermal uplift.N2-CH4 inclusions, with compositions ranging between pure CH4 and pure N2 (Raman spectral analysis), were found in the whole area. They are probably syn- or even pre-early inclusions. Only nearly critical homogenizing inclusions have been found (low density). Pressure estimates, based on densities of early fluid inclusions, show that the rapid transition of amphibolite towards granulite facies metamorphism is virtually isobaric. Granulite facies metamorphism in West Uusimaa is a thermal event, probably induced by the influx of hot, CO2-bearing fluids.

Notizen: Multisystems of n+k (k 〉 3) phases are very complicated and knowledge of them has suffered as a result. The successful solution of the topological relationships in n+ 3 phase multisystems by Zen (1966, 1967) and Zen & Roseboom (1972) has aroused much interest regarding what will happen in a multisystem of more than n+ 3 phases. Since 1979, some important research results on this topic have been published. These results have expounded the substantial rules governing the appearance of phase relations in phase diagrams of n - k (k 〉 3) phase multisystems. The most significant conclusions include: (1) It is impossible to incorporate all the possible phase relations in an n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem in a single closed net. Therefore, it is no longer enough to use only a single closed net to depict the topological relations involved in these types of multisystems. Instead, one or more groups of closed nets, namely the complete system(s) of closed nets are necessary for this purpose. (2) A principle called the Combination Principle has been proposed and proved. It states: Any closed net of one n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem must be a combination of two or more distinct n+ 3 order submultisystem closed nets belonging to the given n+k phase multisystem, if it is not one of the n+ 3 order submultisystem closed nets itself. The combination principle provides both a theoretical basis and a practical method for the construction of closed nets and, hence, for the derivation of the real phase diagrams for any n+k (k 〉 3) phase multisystem. (3) A theorem on divariant-assemblage-characteristic-stability-polygons is also important to our understanding of the n+k (k± 3) phase multisystem closed nets. This theorem can be stated as follows: A divariant assemblage of an n+k (k± 3) phase multisystem will be stable in an l-polygon lacking diagonals in an appropriate set of closed-net-diagrams, and this l-polygon may be at least a triangle, and at most a k-polygon. In addition, the closed-net-diagrams of unary and binary n+ 4 phase multisystems derived respectively by Guo (1980b, 1980c, 1981a) and by Roseboom & Zen (1982) have also been summarized. The combination principle is applied to a practical petrological problem in this paper, dealing with 7 phases in the system FeO-Fe2O3-SiO2.

Notizen: Abstract The stability of quartz-chloritoid-staurolite-almandine-cordierite and aluminium silicates is used to constrain both metamorphic conditions and pressure-temperature trajectories for two localities within the 2700 Ma Archaean Yilgarn Block in Western Australia. Available experimental data are used to calculate thermodynamic data for a self-consistent set of equilibria between these minerals. A lower amphibolite facies locality from the margin of a lower strain area contains assemblages including quartz-chloritoid-staurolite-garnet-biotite with altered cordierite replacing chloritoid, quartz-staurolite-andalusite, and quartz-cordierite-andalusite-biotite. This locality was heated to 530–560°C in the andalusite field, at 4.2 kbar. A sample from a mid- to upper-amphibolite facies, highly strained locality contains relict staurolite enclosed by andalusite, in turn replaced by cordierite and muscovite with biotite and sillimanite in the matrix. The assemblage was heated isobarically from conditions near the maximum experienced by the lower grade locality of 560°C at 4.2 kbar to temperatures in excess of the andalusite-sillimanite transition but within the quartz plus muscovite stability field (600–650°C). The higher grade locality is close to a granitoid dome and sections based on gravity profiles reveal that this locality is underlain by granitoid at shallow depths. The higher grade metamorphism apparently reflects superposition of the thermal aureole on regional metamorphic conditions similar to those in the lower grade areas.

Notizen: Abstract A major system of steep Caledonian shear zones, of regional extent, has been identified in NE Scotland. The shear zones affect a wide range of lithologies, including Argyll and Southern Highland Group Dalradian, ‘Younger Basic’intrusives and their hornfelses, and also the earlier of the more acid intrusions. The observed fabrics and parageneses are consistent with low-pressure amphibolite facies metamorphism. These shear zones represent a phase of movement which occurred in the 490-465 Ma interval when ambient temperatures were still high, and it is concluded that this is the principal control on the metamorphic grade achieved within the shear zones, although local anomalies may exist.

Notizen: Abstract An experimental study of the system CaCO3–MgCO3–FeCO3 was undertaken in order to calibrate the iron correction to the calcite–dolomite geothermometer, which is based on the solubility of magnesium in calcite in the assemblage calcite + dolomite. The experiments, at 450°C and lower temperatures, resulted in products with a very small grain size and incomplete equilibration. However, application of a carefully-devised automatic data processing algorithm to analyses of the phases in experimental charges, combined with a thermodynamic analysis, results in geothermometer diagrams which should be preferred to previous theoretical predictions.

Notizen: Abstract Biotite, garnet, staurolite and kyanite isograds in pelitic metasedimentary rocks are developed as a result of thermal metamorphism around syntectonic granitoids in Eastern Rouergue (France). Temperature estimates range between 400°C and 650°C at about 6.5 kbar. Geothermobarometry shows a steep isobaric T gradient which is consistent with the interpretation that the metamorphic highs are thermal aureoles. High grade rocks show evidence of two staurolite forming reactions in the presence of plagioclase and the absence of chlorite that have not been described previously in the literature. The reaction that occurs in the middle staurolite zone, alm-rich ga + Ca-rich pla + Na-rich mu gro-rich ga + Na-rich pla + st + Na-poor mu, is considered to be prograde, whereas the reaction that occurs in the kyanite zone, alm-rich ga + Ca-rich pla + w st + Ca-rich ga + Na-rich pla + qz, is retrograde. The topology of these reactions is illustrated in terms of end member compositions for the systems KNaFASH and KCaFASH, respectively.

Notizen: Chemical disequilibrium exists between all phases of the Alpe Arami garnet-peridotite body (Ticino, Switzerland) which hampers the evaluation of P-T conditions of origin, yet disequilibrium offers the inherent possibility to derive a P-T-t path for this mantle slice. We tried to tackle this problem by carrying out new mineral analyses and taking diffusion rates and bulk-rock compositional effects into consideration. Peak metamorphic conditions from mineral core compositions were estimated as 112050C/50.2 GPa. These values are significantly higher than previously published results and were determined from a combination of the O'Neill & Wood (1979) Fe/Mg garnet-olivine exchange thermometer and the Al-in-orthopyroxene barometer (Brey & Köhler, 1990), and are supported by the Ca/Cr ratios in garnet, which are in accord with these conditions. Details of the exhumation path were derived from (1) rim compositions of minerals that yield a first retrograde stage of 720 50C/2 0.25 GPa (2) a spinel lherzolite assemblage in narrow shear zones (tectonic phase F0″, after Möckel, 1969) which documents a second retrograde stage at 500–600C/0.8-l.5 GPa. The Ca content in olivine (Köhler & Brey, 1989) can be used to evaluate further P-T conditions along the retrograde path. We measured very low values (30–40 ppm Ca) in the cores of olivine and a remarkable increase towards the rim (120 ppm). The low core values may reflect an equilibrium stage during the main Alpine metamorphism. The increasing values towards the olivine rims probably represent a late-stage heating event. The initial cooling rates for the peridotite body are between 2700 and 5100C Ma-1, depending on which diffusion data are used.

Notizen: Declines in native plant and animal communities have prompted new interest in the restoration of aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Past restoration activities typically have been site specific, with little thought to processes operating at larger scales. A watershed analysis process developed in the Pacific northwest identifies four operating scales useful in developing restoration priorities: region, basin, water-shed, and specific site. Wtershed analysis provides a template for restoration practitioners to use in prioritizing restoration activities. The template identifies seven key steps necessary to understand and develop restoration priorities: (1) characterization, (2) identification of key issues and questions, (3) documentation of current conditions, (4) description of reference conditions, (5) identification of objectives, (6) summary of conditions and determination of causes, and (7) recommendations. When a similar process was used in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, and in the Sluslaw National Forest, Orgon, specialists were able to identify key habitat conditions and habitat forming processes and then to establish restoration priorities and implement the appropriate activities. Watershed analysis provides a valuable set of tools for identifying restoration activities and is currently being used throughout the Pacific Northwest to develop management strategies and restoration priorities. Although the analysis requires significant time, money, and personnel, experience suggests that watershed analysis provides valuable direction for managing aquatic and riparian resources.

Notizen: Landscape ecology focuses on questions typically addressed over broad spatial scales. A landscape approach embraces spatial heterogeneity, consisting of a number of ecosystems and/or landscape structures of different types, as a central theme. Such studies may aid restoration efforts in a variety of ways, including (1) provision of better guidance for selecting reference sites and establishing project goals and (2) suggestions for appropriate spatial configurations of restored elements to facilitate recruitment of flora/fauna. Likewise, restoration efforts may assist landscape–level studies, given that restored habitats, possessing various patch arrangements or being established among landscapes of varying diversity and conditions of human alteration, can provide extraordinary opportunities for experimentation over a large spatial scale. Restoration studies can facilitate the rate of information gathering for expected changes in natural landscapes for which introduction of landscape elements may be relatively slow. Moreover, data collected from restoration studies can assist in validation of dynamic models of current interest in landscape ecology. We suggest that restoration and landscape ecology have an unexplored mutualistic relationship that could enhance research and application of both disciplines.

Notizen: Restoration ecologists use reference information to define restoration goals, determine the restoration potential of sites, and evaluate the success of restoration efforts. Basic to the selection and use of reference information is the need to understand temporal and spatial variation in nature. This is a challenging task: variation is likely to be scale dependent; ecosystems vary in complex ways at several spatial and temporal scales; and there is an important interaction between spatial and temporal variation. The two most common forms of reference information are historical data from the site to be restored and contemporary data from reference sites (sites chosen as good analogs of the site to be restored). Among the problems of historical data are unmeasured factors that confound the interpretation of historical changes observed. Among the problems of individual reference sites is the difficulty of finding or proving a close match in all relevant ecological dimensions. Approximating and understanding ecological variation will require multiple sources of information. Restoration, by its inherently experimental nature, can further the understanding of the distribution, causes, and functions of nature's variation.

Notizen: Books reviewed in this article: Water Quality: Management of a Natural Resource James Perry and Elizabeth Vanderklein

Notizen: The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation created a shallow, 110-m channel to provide habitat for two endangered fishes, Cyprinodon elegans (Comanche Springs pupfish) and Gambusia nobilis (Pecos gambusia), at the site of the fishes' former natural habitat. The ciénega (marsh) associated with Phantom Lake Spring in Jeff Davis County, Texas, was destroyed by the creation of an irrigation canal system. In 1993, the endangered fishes were stocked into the refuge with individuals from the irrigation canals, and in the case of C. elegans, hatchery stocks. The condition of habitat, status of fish populations, and fish ecology within the refuge were then monitored for two years. The abundance and density of both species increased in accordance with aquatic plant development. Cyprinodon elegans abundance peaked after one year and stabilized at an average density of 14.7/m2 by the end of our study. Juvenile C. elegans were always rare, which may indicate that the population reached the refuge's carrying capacity and that recruitment is low. Gambusia nobilis was the most abundant fish in the refuge (average density 96/m2), used the entire refuge, and outcom-peted nonindigenous G. geiseri. The two Gambusia species used similar habitats but showed almost no dietary overlap. High densities of aquatic plants reduced the amount of open water areas necessary for C. elegans. The refuge will sustain the two endangered fishes at this historic site of endemism while maintaining flow to the irrigation system; however, the refuge is not equivalent to a restored ciénega.

Notizen: No guidelines are currently available that advise which soil properties of arable land can be used to suggest suitable locations for heathland reconstruction. This paper reviews studies comparing soil properties of heathland or semi-natural grassland with those of adjacent arable fields, investigations in the autecology of the dominant heathland plant, Calluna vulgaris (common heather), and long-term experiments of fertilizer inputs on arable soils. Three properties must be assessed before the suitability of a field can be determined: extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH. A number of other nutrients may also be important, but evidence is currently insufficient to substantiate this. Natural changes in levels of extractable phosphorus, exchangeable calcium, and pH appear to be very slow, so nutrient stripping and acidification will be necessary where recommended levels are exceeded to successfully restore heathland vegetation.

Notizen: Ants are widely used as bioindicators in Australian land assessment and monitoring programs, particularly in relation to ecosystem restoration following mining. Little is known, however, about the relationship between ant community development and key ecological processes such as nutrient cycling. We have examined the relationship between ant species richness and soil microbial biomass at 17 sites subject to disturbance by mining in the Kakadu region of Australia's Northern Territory. The number of ant species recorded ranged from 7 at an unvegetated site undergoing restoration to 43 at a site that was undisturbed except for edge effects. Soil microbial biomass ranged from 19.3 to 134.3 μgC/g. Ant species richness was positively correlated with soil microbial biomass (r= 0.638), more so than was plant species richness (r= 0.342 for total plant species, r= 0.499 for woody species only). Our findings demonstrate a correlation between aboveground ant activity and belowground decomposition processes at disturbed sites, thereby providing support for the use of ants as indicators of restoration success following disturbance. Interestingly, when a range of undisturbed sites in the region was considered, a negative rather than positive relationship between ant richness and soil microbial biomass was found. This illustrates the importance of distinguishing between variation within a habitat due to disturbance and variation across different habitats when searching for indicators of ecological change.

Notizen: Bottomland hardwood forests in the southcentral United States have been cleared extensively for agriculture, and many of the remaining forests are fragmented and degraded. During the last decade, however, approximately 75,000 ha of land—mainly agricultural fields—have been replanted or contracted for replanting, with many more acres likely to be reforested in the near future. The approach used in most reforestation projects to date has been to plant one to three overstory tree species, usually Quercus spp. (oaks), and to rely on natural dispersal for the establishment of other woody species. I critique this practice by two means. First, a brief literature review demonstrates that moderately high woody species diversity occurs in natural bottomland hardwood forests in the region. This review, which relates diversity to site characteristics, serves as a basis for comparison with stands established by means of current reforestation practices. Second, I reevaluate data on the invasion of woody species from an earlier study of 10 reforestation projects in Mississippi, with the goal of assessing the likelihood that stands with high woody species diversity will develop. I show that natural invasion cannot always be counted on to produce a diverse stand, particularly on sites more than about 60 m from an existing forest edge. I then make several recommendations for altering current reforestation practices in order to establish stands with greater woody species diversity, a more natural appearance, and a more positive environmental impact at scales larger than individual sites.

Notizen: We evaluated the ecological and reproductive characteristics of plant species occurring in severely disturbed areas that were revegetated with exotic grasses. We identified those species with the best combination of attributes that increase their probability of success in degraded lands. Fifteen degraded areas were studied in two different bioclimatic regions, a high premontane humid bioclimate and a low premontane humid bioclimate. The frequency of native colonizing species and the presence of arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization in their roots were evaluated. The sexual and breeding system, pollination mode, fruit set, and dispersal syndrome of ten of the most frequent colonizing species were also studied. The floristic survey of the colonizing species revealed a similarity to the reported flora of the treeless savannas that are dominant in the region. Bioclimatic conditions prevailing in the degraded lands seem to be an important factor for the presence of colonizing species and for species richness. All colonizing species studied were mycorrhizal, and for this reason the restoration program in these degraded areas should take mycorrhizae into account, reintroducing them or manipulating the soils to increase the mycorrhizal inoculum. We suggest Scleria cyperina and Trachypogon plumosus to start or promote the natural succession in the degraded areas from La Gran Sabana. Because their frequency is high and their reproductive system is less dependent on biotic factors, these species stand out in the studied areas.

Notizen: Disturbance of coastal sage scrub in southern California has led to extensive displacement of native shrubs by exotic annual grasses. The initial conversion from shrubland to exotic grassland is typically associated with disturbance caused by intense grazing, high fire frequency, or mechanical vegetation removal. While native shrubs have been shown to recolonize annual grasslands under some conditions, other annual grasslands are persistent and show no evidence of shrub recolonization. This study examined the mechanisms by which annual grasses may exclude native shrubs and persist after release from disturbance. Grass density was manipulated in experimental plots to achieve a series of prescribed densities. Artemisia californica, a dominant native shrub, was seeded or planted into the plots and responses to the grass density treatments were measured over two growing seasons. A. californica germination, first season growth, and survival were all negatively related to the density of neighboring annual grasses. The most probable mechanism underlying the reduction of first season growth and survival was depletion of soil water by the grasses. The effects of the grasses on A. californica were no longer significant in the second season. The results of this study indicate that Mediterranean annual grasses reduce recruitment and can persist by inhibiting post-disturbance establishment of A. californica from seed. Although succession alone may not return disturbed annual grasslands to their former shrubland composition, the results suggest that restoration can be achieved by using container plantings or grass removal followed by seeding.

Notizen: This study evaluated the genetic consequences of a reintroduction of the endangered annual plant Cordylanthus maritimus ssp. maritimus to Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California). A survey of 21 enzyme loci in natural populations revealed that genetic diversity is very low and is primarily found as rare alleles at a few loci, making this species especially susceptible to the loss of alleles and heterozygosity through genetic drift. The reintroduction was performed in 1991 and 1992 by sowing seeds (collected from Tijuana Estuary) in numerous small patches of suitable habitat. For this study, leaf tissue was collected from all plants in all patches during flowering in 1995 and surveyed for genotype at the three enzyme loci that are polymorphic at Tijuana Estuary. Rare alleles were absent in 27 out of 30 patches for Pgm-1, in 17 out of 30 patches for Pgm-2, and in 10 out of 11 patches for Mdh-1. In all, half of the patches lacked any rare allele. Rare alleles tended to occur in patches with few individuals. Overall rare allele frequency was lower than in the colonies from which seeds were collected at two of the three loci, and heterozygosity was reduced. The Sweetwater Marsh population is at risk of losing most of its genetic variation at enzyme loci through the extinction of patches with few individuals. Future reintroduction attempts should attempt to create contiguous sets of patches or to periodically reseed existing patches to reduce the loss of genetic variation.

Notizen: Books reviewed in this article: Riparian Ecosystem Recovery in Arid Lands: Strategies and References. Mark K. Briggs Land Restoration and Reclamation: Principles and Practice James A. Harris, Paul Birch, and John Palmer

Notizen: Effects of waterlogging were studied in the field and under glasshouse conditions on two clonal lines of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh (river red gum), which are used in the rehabilitation of damaged agricultural catchments in Western Australia. The plantation of 9-year-old trees was in a position that covered a range of waterlogging and salinity conditions. Up-slope the water table was deeper (0.65–1.5 m), whereas the water table was closer to the ground surface down-slope (0.45 m in winter; 1.25 m in summer). Salinity was greater downslope and increased at the end of the dry summer, remaining high until diluted by the winter rains. Trees of both clonal lines were smaller downslope and used less water over the year. Clone M80 used more water in winter; clone M66 more in summer. In the field, the roots of clone M80 were evenly distributed through the soil profile, while roots of clone M66 decreased with increasing depth. Production of new root terminals varied with season. Greatest production was in spring and early summer, with much lower production over late autumn and winter. Only clone M66 produced new root terminals at depth (60–75 cm) during the drier months of late summer and early autumn. At this time, saline ground-water was the main source for water uptake. To explore clonal differences more closely, the effects of prolonged waterlogging were studied under glasshouse conditions. Clone M80 grew similarly under freely drained and continuously waterlogged conditions for the experimental period (21 weeks). The response under continuously waterlogged conditions was achieved through adventitious root production. By contrast, growth of clone M66 was suppressed under continuous waterlogging, a response associated with the lack of adventitious root production. The results from field and glasshouse studies suggest that clone M80 is more adapted to waterlogging by relatively fresh water than clone M66, but that clone M66 may use water of higher salinity than clone M80. Clone M80 would be better suited to higher positions in partially cleared catchments, where rainfall provides relatively fresh soil water. Clone M66 is better suited to lower catchment positions due to its ability to utilize more saline groundwater. Restoration of the water balance of damaged agricultural catchments can be best managed by matching specialized genotypes with particular catchment positions.

Notizen: I conducted small-mammal trapping surveys on a desert scrub restoration site in Palm Springs, California, to document concomitant recovery of the rodent community. These surveys were conducted following quantitative vegetation sampling efforts that indicated that a predefined successful restoration criterion of 15% total shrub cover had been met throughout most of the area. But shrub cover, native shrub cover, herb cover, native herb cover, total cover, and total native cover remained significantly lower in the restoration area than in undeveloped desert scrub immediately surrounding the site. Native herb species richness was also generally lower in the restoration area. Despite these vegetation differences, rodent diversity, evenness, and abundance were very similar between the restoration and natural areas (they were consistently slightly higher in the restoration area). More diverse microhabitats, proximity to water, and reduced competition with harvester ants may have contributed to this outcome. If ecosystem restoration is the goal, reestablishment of a faunal community in restored habitat, rather than surpassing a predefined percent cover of vegetation, may be a better indicator of success, because plant cover proved to be a poor predictor of mammal success.

Notizen: Books reviewed in this article: California Rivers and Streams: The Conflict Between Fluvial Processes and Land Use. Jeffery F. Mount Evolution and the Aquatic Ecosystem: Defining Unique Units in Population Conservation. J. L. Nielson, editor

Notizen: Closed or abandoned landfills represent significant land areas, often in or near urban centers, that are potential sites for ecological restoration of native woodlands. But current guidelines in many jurisdictions do not allow for the installation of trees or shrubs above landfill clay caps, although these plants have many environmental, functional, and aesthetic advantages, including a rapid start to community succession. Typical closure procedures for capped landfills include only a grass cover to control moisture infiltration and impede soil erosion. The main concern that limits the application of a woody cover to a closed landfill is that roots may penetrate and weaken the clay cap. As part of a comprehensive experimental program on woodland restoration, we installed 22 tree and shrub species on Staten Island, New York (the Fresh Kills Sanitary Landfill). We found no evidence that roots of the transplanted woody plants penetrate caps used on these landfills. Root growth requirements and dynamics stop penetration of these materials. Anoxic and acidic conditions were found in the sandy subsoil above the cap, as indicated by corrosion patterns on steel test rods. Also, the intensity of mycorrhizal infection on the experimental plants was high in the surface soil and decreased progressively with increasing soil depth. The potential vertical rooting depth during this time period was greater than that occurring over the clay cap. This was shown from data collected on a nearby control site, where seven of the species were installed on an engineered soil lacking a clay barrier layer, and roots of all seven species penetrated deeper than on the landfill. The engineered landfill soils are poor growth media for roots, and below ground constraints that limit restoration on these sites must be addressed.

Notizen: The Northern Rocky Mountain Wolf Recovery plan proposed reintroduction of Canis lupus (gray wolf) to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho as part of a wolf restoration plan for the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. Strong opposition from some factions within the region forestalled the action for two decades. An environmental impact statement, conducted in 1992–1994 with extensive public input, culminated in a proposal to reintroduce wolves designated as “non-essential—experimental” under Section 10 (j) of the federal Endangered Species Act. This approach, approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1994, provided for wolf restoration while allowing management flexibility to deal with concerns of the local public. A reintroduction plan was developed in the summer and fall of 1994. Acquiring, holding, transporting, and releasing suitable wolves for reintroduction presented a myriad of technical and logistical challenges that required effective planning and coordination by all participants. In January 1995, 29 wolves were captured in Alberta and transported to Yellowstone National Park (14) and central Idaho (15). Idaho wolves were freed immediately upon arrival; Yellowstone wolves (three family groups) were held in acclimation pens in the park until late March. Most Idaho wolves traveled extensively within the area intended for them, averaging 82 km net distance away from release sites after 5 months (range = 30–220 km), and three male-female pairs formed by July. After 5 months in the wild, at least 13 of 15 Idaho-released wolves were alive within the intended area, as were 13 of 14 Yellowstone wolves; one wolf was known to have been illegally killed in each area. No livestock were killed. Wolves released into Yellowstone Park continued to live as packs, stayed closer to their release sites (x = 22 km at end of June), and settled into home ranges; two packs produced a total of nine pups. The progress of the reintroduction program in its first year far exceeded expectations. Reintroductions of about 15 wolves to each area for 2–4 more years are scheduled, but the project may be shortened because of early successes. Future reintroduction planners can expect sociocultural issues to pervade the effort, but they can be optimistic that, from a biological standpoint, reintroduction of wolves has strong potential as a restoration technique.

Notizen: This paper summarizes the accumulation of nutrient capital during the natural afforestation of iron-smelting slag. The study site was the Beckley Furnace (North Caanan, Connecticut, U.S.A.) slag dump, which was abandoned around 1918. Currently, a Pinus strobus (white pine)-dominated forest occupies the site. Our primary objective was to determine the relationships among stand development and belowground nutrient pools to evaluate controls on the rates at which nitrogen, calcium, magnesium, and potassium accumulate in the developing forest. Along a developmental gradient of increasing stand basal area, we measured (1) aboveground biomass, (2) root biomass, (3) above-ground nutrient capital, (4) belowground nutrient capital, (5) soil weight, (6) soil organic carbon weight, (7) soil moisture, and (8) understory richness and density. Regression analysis suggests, as expected, that the addition of organic matter controls the accumulation of above- and belowground nutrients, soil water, and understory plant composition and distribution. The rather rapid rate of nitrogen accumulation suggests that allochthonous as well as autochthonous organic matter is an important source of nutrients for the developing forest soil and vegetation. Compared to those of other northeastern forests, soils in the most developed areas at the Beckley site have accumulated more than enough labile nutrient capital in 75 years to support a forest typical of the region. In the most developed stands, understory composition indicates mesic soil conditions, and that within the next 75 years or so the Beckley slag dump will be floristically very similar to the surrounding forest.

Notizen: Extensive land loss, which is mostly wetland loss, has taken place during this century in the Mississippi River delta and other river deltas. Our purpose was to evaluate the effectiveness of constructing “artificial” crevasses, or cuts in the natural levee, made by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in the Delta National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) to slow or reverse this type of land loss. Land growth of the crevasses was determined from aerial photographs and was related to crevasse-site characteristics. The newly constructed crevasses create emergent wetlands after 2 years of subaqueous growth at about 4.7 ha/year and an average cost of $21,377 per crevasse. The present total cost per hectare declines with age as new land builds, and it will equal $48 per hectare if all the open water in the receiving ponds fills in. At these rates, the net land loss rates in the DNWR measured from 1958 to 1978 would be compensated for by the building of 63 crevasses, 24 of which are already in place.

Notizen: Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by anearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consistsof elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values ofunknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

Notizen: A call for risk assessment approaches that better characterize and quantify uncertainty has been made by the scientific and regulatory community. This paper responds to that call by demonstrating a distributional approachthat draws upon human data to derive potency estimates and to identify and quantify important sources of uncertainty. The approach is rooted in the science of decision analysis and employs an influence diagram, a decision tree, probabilistic weights, and a distribution of point estimates of carcinogenic potency. Its results estimate the likelihood of different carcinogenicrisks (potencies) for a chemical under a specific scenario. For this exercise, human data on formaldehyde were employed to demonstrate the approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the relative impact of specific levels and alternatives on the potency distribution. The resulting potency estimates are compared with the results of an exercise using animal data on formaldehyde. The paper demonstrates that distributional risk assessment is readily adapted to situations in which epidemiologic data serve as the basis for potency estimates. Strengths and weaknesses of the distributional approach are discussed. Areas for further application and research are recommended.