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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Lamborg, C. H., Hansel, C. M., Bowman, K. L., Voelker, B. M., Marsico, R. M., Oldham, V. E., Swarr, G. J., Zhang, T., & Ganguli, P. M. Dark reduction drives evasion of mercury from the ocean. Frontiers in Environmental Chemistry, 2, (2021): 659085, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvc.2021.659085.
    Description: Much of the surface water of the ocean is supersaturated in elemental mercury (Hg0) with respect to the atmosphere, leading to sea-to-air transfer or evasion. This flux is large, and nearly balances inputs from the atmosphere, rivers and hydrothermal vents. While the photochemical production of Hg0 from ionic and methylated mercury is reasonably well-studied and can produce Hg0 at fairly high rates, there is also abundant Hg0 in aphotic waters, indicating that other important formation pathways exist. Here, we present results of gross reduction rate measurements, depth profiles and diel cycling studies to argue that dark reduction of Hg2+ is also capable of sustaining Hg0 concentrations in the open ocean mixed layer. In locations where vertical mixing is deep enough relative to the vertical penetration of UV-B and photosynthetically active radiation (the principal forms of light involved in abiotic and biotic Hg photoreduction), dark reduction will contribute the majority of Hg0 produced in the surface ocean mixed layer. Our measurements and modeling suggest that these conditions are met nearly everywhere except at high latitudes during local summer. Furthermore, the residence time of Hg0 in the mixed layer with respect to evasion is longer than that of redox, a situation that allows dark reduction-oxidation to effectively set the steady-state ratio of Hg0 to Hg2+ in surface waters. The nature of these dark redox reactions in the ocean was not resolved by this study, but our experiments suggest a likely mechanism or mechanisms involving enzymes and/or important redox agents such as reactive oxygen species and manganese (III).
    Description: This work was supported by NSF Grant OCE-1355720 (to CH, CL, and BV).
    Keywords: Mercury ; Evasion ; Elemental ; Dark ; Ocean ; Reactive oxygen species ; Manganese ; Global model
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Loomis, R., Cooley, S. R., Collins, J. R., Engler, S., & Suatoni, L. A code of conduct is imperative for ocean carbon dioxide removal research. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, (2022): 872800, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.872800.
    Description: As the impacts of rising temperatures mount and the global transition to clean energy advances only gradually, scientists and policymakers are looking towards carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods to prevent the worst impacts of climate change. Attention has increasingly focused on ocean CDR techniques, which enhance or restore marine systems to sequester carbon. Ocean CDR research presents the risk of uncertain impacts to human and environmental welfare, yet there are no domestic regulations aimed at ensuring the safety and efficacy of this research. A code of conduct that establishes principles of responsible research, fairness, and equity is needed in this field. This article presents fifteen key components of an ocean CDR research code of conduct.
    Description: JC acknowledges funding support from Bezos Earth Fund.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide removal ; Ocean ; Policy ; Research governance ; Geoengineering
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-12-06
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Boss, E., Waite, A., Karstensen, J., Trull, T., Muller-Karger, F., Sosik, H., Uitz, J., Acinas, S., Fennel, K., Berman-Frank, I., Thomalla, S., Yamazaki, H., Batten, S., Gregori, G., Richardson, A., & Wanninkhof, R. Recommendations for plankton measurements on OceanSITES moorings with relevance to other observing sites. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, (2022): 929436, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.929436.
    Description: Measuring plankton and associated variables as part of ocean time-series stations has the potential to revolutionize our understanding of ocean biology and ecology and their ties to ocean biogeochemistry. It will open temporal scales (e.g., resolving diel cycles) not typically sampled as a function of depth. In this review we motivate the addition of biological measurements to time-series sites by detailing science questions they could help address, reviewing existing technology that could be deployed, and providing examples of time-series sites already deploying some of those technologies. We consider here the opportunities that exist through global coordination within the OceanSITES network for long-term (climate) time series station in the open ocean. Especially with respect to data management, global solutions are needed as these are critical to maximize the utility of such data. We conclude by providing recommendations for an implementation plan.
    Description: This work was partially supported from funding to SCOR WG 154 (P-OBS) provided by national committees of the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) and from a grant to SCOR from the U.S. National Science Foundation (OCE-1840868). FM-K acknowledges the support provided for participation by the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) sponsored by NASA, NOAA, ONR, BOEM. HS acknowledges support from the Simons Foundation.
    Keywords: Plankton ; Ocean ; Measurements ; Sensors ; OceanSITES ; Ocean biology
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-11-04
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tuchen, F., Brandt, P., Hahn, J., Hummels, R., Krahmann, G., Bourlès, B., Provost, C., McPhaden, M., & Toole, J. Two decades of full-depth current velocity observations from a moored observatory in the central equatorial Atlantic at 0°N, 23°W. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, (2022): 910979, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910979.
    Description: Regional climate variability in the tropical Atlantic, from interannual to decadal time scales, is inevitably connected to changes in the strength and position of the individual components of the tropical current system with impacts on societally relevant climate hazards such as anomalous rainfall or droughts over the surrounding continents (Bourlès et al., 2019; Foltz et al., 2019). Furthermore, the lateral supply of dissolved oxygen in the tropical Atlantic upper-ocean is closely linked to the zonal current bands (Brandt et al., 2008; Brandt et al., 2012; Burmeister et al., 2020) and especially to the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and its long-term variations with potential implications for regional marine ecosystems (Brandt et al., 2021). The eastward flowing EUC is located between 70 to 200 m depth and forms one of the strongest tropical currents with maximum velocities of up to 1 m s-1 and maximum variability on seasonal time scales (Brandt et al., 2014; Johns et al., 2014). In the intermediate to deep equatorial Atlantic, variability on longer time scales is mainly governed by alternating, vertically-stacked, zonal currents (equatorial deep jets (EDJs); Johnson and Zhang, 2003). At a fixed location, the phases of these jets are propagating downward with time, implying that parts of their energy must propagate upward towards the surface (Brandt et al., 2011). In fact, a pronounced interannual cycle of about 4.5 years, that is associated with EDJs, is projected onto surface parameters such as sea surface temperature or precipitation (Brandt et al., 2011) further demonstrating the importance of understanding equatorial circulation variability and its role in tropical climate variability.
    Description: This study was funded by EU H2020 under grant agreement 817578 TRIATLAS project, by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft as part of the Sonderforschungsbereich754 “Climate–Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean” and through several research cruises with RV Meteor, RV Maria S. Merian, RV L'Atalante, and RV Sonne and by the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) as part of the projects RACE (03F06518) and by the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7) under Grant Agreement 603521. Moored velocity observations were acquired in cooperation with the PIRATA project supported by NOAA (USA), IRD and Meteo-France (France), INPE (Brazil) and the Brazil Navy. This research was performed while FPT held an NRC Research Associateship Award at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. FPT, PB, JH, RH, and GK are grateful for continuing support from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. MM acknowledges the support of NOAA; PMEL contribution no. 5359. JT's contributions to this study were supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Ocean observations ; Physical oceanography ; Equatorial Atlantic circulation ; Ocean currents ; Moored observations ; Climate variability
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Benthuysen, J. A., Oliver, E. C. J., Chen, K., & Wernberg, T. Editorial: advances in understanding marine heatwaves and their impacts. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, (2020): 147, doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00147.
    Description: Editorial on the Research Topic Advances in Understanding Marine Heatwaves and Their Impacts In recent years, prolonged, extremely warm water events, known as marine heatwaves, have featured prominently around the globe with their disruptive consequences for marine ecosystems. Over the past decade, marine heatwaves have occurred from the open ocean to marginal seas and coastal regions, including the unprecedented 2011 Western Australia marine heatwave (Ningaloo Niño) in the eastern Indian Ocean (e.g., Pearce et al., 2011), the 2012 northwest Atlantic marine heatwave (Chen et al., 2014), the 2012 and 2015 Mediterranean Sea marine heatwaves (Darmaraki et al., 2019), the 2013/14 western South Atlantic (Rodrigues et al., 2019) and 2017 southwestern Atlantic marine heatwave (Manta et al., 2018), the persistent 2014–2016 “Blob” in the North Pacific (Bond et al., 2015; Di Lorenzo and Mantua, 2016), the 2015/16 marine heatwave spanning the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean to the Coral Sea (Benthuysen et al., 2018), and the Tasman Sea marine heatwaves in 2015/16 (Oliver et al., 2017) and 2017/18 (Salinger et al., 2019). These events have set new records for marine heatwave intensity, the temperature anomaly exceeding a climatology, and duration, the sustained period of extreme temperatures. We have witnessed the profound consequences of these thermal disturbances from acute changes to marine life to enduring impacts on species, populations, and communities (Smale et al., 2019). These marine heatwaves have spurred a diversity of research spanning the methodology of identifying and quantifying the events (e.g., Hobday et al., 2016) and their historical trends (Oliver et al., 2018), understanding their physical mechanisms and relationships with climate modes (e.g., Holbrook et al., 2019), climate projections (Frölicher et al., 2018), and understanding the biological impacts for organisms and ecosystem function and services (e.g., Smale et al., 2019). By using sea surface temperature percentiles, temperature anomalies can be quantified based on their local variability and account for the broad range of temperature regimes in different marine environments. For temperatures exceeding a 90th-percentile threshold beyond a period of 5-days, marine heatwaves can be classified into categories based on their intensity (Hobday et al., 2018). While these recent advances have provided the framework for understanding key aspects of marine heatwaves, a challenge lies ahead for effective integration of physical and biological knowledge for prediction of marine heatwaves and their ecological impacts. This Research Topic is motivated by the need to understand the mechanisms for how marine heatwaves develop and the biological responses to thermal stress events. This Research Topic is a collection of 18 research articles and three review articles aimed at advancing our knowledge of marine heatwaves within four themes. These themes include methods for detecting marine heatwaves, understanding their physical mechanisms, seasonal forecasting and climate projections, and ecological impacts.
    Description: We thank the contributing authors, reviewers, and the editorial staff at Frontiers in Marine Science for their support in producing this issue. We thank the Marine Heatwaves Working Group (http://www.marineheatwaves.org/) for inspiration and discussions. This special issue stemmed from the session on Advances in Understanding Marine Heat Waves and Their Impacts at the 2018 Ocean Sciences meeting (Portland, USA).
    Keywords: Marine heatwaves ; Extreme events ; Ocean and atmosphere interactions ; Marine ecosystems ; Marine resources ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Climate prediction
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Roemmich, D., Alford, M. H., Claustre, H., Johnson, K., King, B., Moum, J., Oke, P., Owens, W. B., Pouliquen, S., Purkey, S., Scanderbeg, M., Suga, T., Wijffels, S., Zilberman, N., Bakker, D., Baringer, M., Belbeoch, M., Bittig, H. C., Boss, E., Calil, P., Carse, F., Carval, T., Chai, F., Conchubhair, D. O., d'Ortenzio, F., Dall'Olmo, G., Desbruyeres, D., Fennel, K., Fer, I., Ferrari, R., Forget, G., Freeland, H., Fujiki, T., Gehlen, M., Greenan, B., Hallberg, R., Hibiya, T., Hosoda, S., Jayne, S., Jochum, M., Johnson, G. C., Kang, K., Kolodziejczyk, N., Kortzinger, A., Le Traon, P., Lenn, Y., Maze, G., Mork, K. A., Morris, T., Nagai, T., Nash, J., Garabato, A. N., Olsen, A., Pattabhi, R. R., Prakash, S., Riser, S., Schmechtig, C., Schmid, C., Shroyer, E., Sterl, A., Sutton, P., Talley, L., Tanhua, T., Thierry, V., Thomalla, S., Toole, J., Troisi, A., Trull, T. W., Turton, J., Velez-Belchi, P. J., Walczowski, W., Wang, H., Wanninkhof, R., Waterhouse, A. F., Waterman, S., Watson, A., Wilson, C., Wong, A. P. S., Xu, J., & Yasuda, I. On the future of Argo: A global, full-depth, multi-disciplinary array. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 439, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00439.
    Description: The Argo Program has been implemented and sustained for almost two decades, as a global array of about 4000 profiling floats. Argo provides continuous observations of ocean temperature and salinity versus pressure, from the sea surface to 2000 dbar. The successful installation of the Argo array and its innovative data management system arose opportunistically from the combination of great scientific need and technological innovation. Through the data system, Argo provides fundamental physical observations with broad societally-valuable applications, built on the cost-efficient and robust technologies of autonomous profiling floats. Following recent advances in platform and sensor technologies, even greater opportunity exists now than 20 years ago to (i) improve Argo’s global coverage and value beyond the original design, (ii) extend Argo to span the full ocean depth, (iii) add biogeochemical sensors for improved understanding of oceanic cycles of carbon, nutrients, and ecosystems, and (iv) consider experimental sensors that might be included in the future, for example to document the spatial and temporal patterns of ocean mixing. For Core Argo and each of these enhancements, the past, present, and future progression along a path from experimental deployments to regional pilot arrays to global implementation is described. The objective is to create a fully global, top-to-bottom, dynamically complete, and multidisciplinary Argo Program that will integrate seamlessly with satellite and with other in situ elements of the Global Ocean Observing System (Legler et al., 2015). The integrated system will deliver operational reanalysis and forecasting capability, and assessment of the state and variability of the climate system with respect to physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystems parameters. It will enable basic research of unprecedented breadth and magnitude, and a wealth of ocean-education and outreach opportunities.
    Description: DR, MS, and NZ were supported by the US Argo Program through the NOAA Grant NA15OAR4320071 (CIMEC). WO, SJ, and SWi were supported by the US Argo Program through the NOAA Grant NA14OAR4320158 (CINAR). EuroArgo scientists were supported by the two grants: (1) AtlantOS funding by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Grant Agreement No. 633211 and (2) Monitoring the Oceans and Climate Change with Argo (MOCCA) Co-funded by the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF) Project No. SI2.709624. This manuscript represents a contribution to the following research projects for HC, CaS, and FD: remOcean (funded by the European Research Council, grant 246777), NAOS (funded by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche in the frame of the French “Equipement d’avenir” program, grant ANR J11R107-F), AtlantOS (funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, grant 2014-633211), and the BGC-Argo project funded by the CNES. DB was funded by the EU RINGO project (730944 H2020-INFRADEV-2016-1). RF was supported by the AGS-1835576. GCJ was supported by the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S., and the Department of Commerce and NOAA Research. LT was funded under the SOCCOM Grant No. NSF PLR-1425989. VT’s contribution was supported by the French National Research Agency (ANR) through the EQUIPEX NAOS (Novel Argo Observing System) under the reference ANR-10-EQPX-40 and by the European H2020 Research and Innovation Programme through the AtlantOS project under the reference 633211. WW was supported by the Argo Poland program through the Ministry of Sciences and Higher Education Grant No. DIR/WK/2016/12. AmW was funded by the NSF-OCE1434722. K-RK is funded by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences’ Research and Development Program “Development of Marine Meteorology Monitoring and Next-generation Ocean Forecasting System” under the grant KMA2018-00421. CSchmid is funded by NOAA/AOML and the US Argo Program through NOAA/OOMD. MBa is funded by NOAA/AOML.
    Keywords: Argo ; Floats ; Global ; Ocean ; Warming ; Circulation ; Temperature ; Salinity
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-21
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tanhua, T., Pouliquen, S., Hausman, J., O'Brien, K., Bricher, P., de Bruin, T., Buck, J. J. H., Burger, E. F., Carval, T., Casey, K. S., Diggs, S., Giorgetti, A., Glaves, H., Harscoat, V., Kinkade, D., Muelbert, J. H., Novellino, A., Pfeil, B., Pulsifer, P. L., Van de Putte, A., Robinson, E., Schaap, D., Smirnov, A., Smith, N., Snowden, D., Spears, T., Stall, S., Tacoma, M., Thijsse, P., Tronstad, S., Vandenberghe, T., Wengren, M., Wyborn, L., & Zhao, Z. Ocean FAIR data services. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 440, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00440.
    Description: Well-founded data management systems are of vital importance for ocean observing systems as they ensure that essential data are not only collected but also retained and made accessible for analysis and application by current and future users. Effective data management requires collaboration across activities including observations, metadata and data assembly, quality assurance and control (QA/QC), and data publication that enables local and interoperable discovery and access and secures archiving that guarantees long-term preservation. To achieve this, data should be findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). Here, we outline how these principles apply to ocean data and illustrate them with a few examples. In recent decades, ocean data managers, in close collaboration with international organizations, have played an active role in the improvement of environmental data standardization, accessibility, and interoperability through different projects, enhancing access to observation data at all stages of the data life cycle and fostering the development of integrated services targeted to research, regulatory, and operational users. As ocean observing systems evolve and an increasing number of autonomous platforms and sensors are deployed, the volume and variety of data increase dramatically. For instance, there are more than 70 data catalogs that contain metadata records for the polar oceans, a situation that makes comprehensive data discovery beyond the capacity of most researchers. To better serve research, operational, and commercial users, more efficient turnaround of quality data in known formats and made available through Web services is necessary. In particular, automation of data workflows will be critical to reduce friction throughout the data value chain. Adhering to the FAIR principles with free, timely, and unrestricted access to ocean observation data is beneficial for the originators, has obvious benefits for users, and is an essential foundation for the development of new services made possible with big data technologies.
    Description: We thank the funding agencies and the data management projects that have made this work possible through dedicated funding for the data management activities and improvements. TT and JB acknowledge support from the EU Horizon 2020 project AtlantOS (grant agreement 633211). JM acknowledges support from the Integrated Oceanography and Multiple Uses of the Continental Shelf and the Adjacent Ocean Integrated Center of Oceanography (INCT-Mar COI, CNPq, Proc. 565062/2010-7). DS acknowledges support from the H2020 project SeaDataCloud (grant agreement 730960). SP acknowledges support from the EU Horizon 2020 project ENVRIplus (grant agreement 654182). AN acknowledges support from the EMODnet Physics (grant number EASME/EMFF/2016/1.3.1.2-Lot3/SI2.749411). HG acknowledges funding from the EU H2020 Ocean Data Interoperability Platform (ODIP) project (Grant No: 654310). JH acknowledges that funding came from the National Aeronautics and Space Agency as managed by the California Institute of Technology under task number 80NM0018F0848. AVdP acknowledges support from Belspo in the framework the EU Lifewatch ERIC (grant agreement FR/36/AN3). KO’B acknowledges that his publication is partially funded by the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063, Contribution No. 2018-0175.
    Keywords: FAIR ; Ocean ; Data management ; Data services ; Ocean observing ; Standardization ; Interoperability
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Palmer, M. D., Durack, P. J., Paz Chidichimo, M., Church, J. A., Cravatte, S., Hill, K., Johannessen, J. A., Karstensen, J., Lee, T., Legler, D., Mazloff, M., Oka, E., Purkey, S., Rabe, B., Sallee, J., Sloyan, B. M., Speich, S., von Schuckmann, K., Willis, J., & Wijffels, S. Adequacy of the ocean observation system for quantifying regional heat and freshwater storage and change. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 16, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00416.
    Description: Considerable advances in the global ocean observing system over the last two decades offers an opportunity to provide more quantitative information on changes in heat and freshwater storage. Variations in these storage terms can arise through internal variability and also the response of the ocean to anthropogenic climate change. Disentangling these competing influences on the regional patterns of change and elucidating their governing processes remains an outstanding scientific challenge. This challenge is compounded by instrumental and sampling uncertainties. The combined use of ocean observations and model simulations is the most viable method to assess the forced signal from noise and ascertain the primary drivers of variability and change. Moreover, this approach offers the potential for improved seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the possibility to develop powerful multi-variate constraints on climate model future projections. Regional heat storage changes dominate the steric contribution to sea level rise over most of the ocean and are vital to understanding both global and regional heat budgets. Variations in regional freshwater storage are particularly relevant to our understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle and can potentially be used to verify local ocean mass addition from terrestrial and cryospheric systems associated with contemporary sea level rise. This White Paper will examine the ability of the current ocean observing system to quantify changes in regional heat and freshwater storage. In particular we will seek to answer the question: What time and space scales are currently resolved in different regions of the global oceans? In light of some of the key scientific questions, we will discuss the requirements for measurement accuracy, sampling, and coverage as well as the synergies that can be leveraged by more comprehensively analyzing the multi-variable arrays provided by the integrated observing system.
    Description: MP was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the BEIS and Defra, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under grant Agreement No. 633211 (AtlantOS). The work of PD was prepared the by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 and is a contribution to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional and Global Modeling and Analysis Program. LLNL Release number: LLNL-JRNL-761158. BS and JC was partially supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, a joint research center between the QNLM and the CSIRO. BS was also supported by the Australian Government Department of the Environment and CSIRO through the National Environmental Science Program. SC was supported by the IRD and by the French national program LEFE/INSU. SC thanks W. Kessler for suggestions concerning Figure 6. BR was supported by the German Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (AWI). J-BS was supported by the CNRS/INSU and the Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program under Grant Agreement 637770. SS was supported by the French Institutions ENS, LMD, IPSL, and CNRS/INSU. The work of JW was performed in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
    Keywords: Heat content ; Freshwater content ; Salinity ; Temperature ; Ocean observing system ; Climate change ; Climate variability ; Observing system design
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Marine Science 4 (2017): 337, doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00337.
    Description: The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared for the early and abundant landings of lobsters. Motivated by this series of events, we have developed a forecast of when the Maine (USA) lobster fishery will shift into its high volume summer landings period. The forecast uses a regression approach to relate spring ocean temperatures derived from four NERACOOS buoys along the coast of Maine to the start day of the high landings period of the fishery. Tested against conditions in past years, the forecast is able to predict the start day to within 1 week of the actual start, and the forecast can be issued 3–4 months prior to the onset of the high-landings period, providing valuable lead-time for the fishery and its associated supply chain to prepare for the upcoming season. Forecast results are conveyed in a probabilistic manner and are updated weekly over a 6-week forecasting period so that users can assess the certainty and consistency of the forecast and factor the uncertainty into their use of the information in a given year. By focusing on the timing of events, this type of seasonal forecast provides climate-relevant information to users at time scales that are meaningful for operational decisions. As climate change alters seasonal phenology and reduces the reliability of past experience as a guide for future expectations, this type of forecast can enable fishing industry participants to better adjust to and prepare for operating in the context of climate change.
    Description: This forecast was initiated with support from NSF Coastal SEES (OCE 1325484) and was developed with funds from NASA EPSCoR through Maine Space Grant Consortium (EP-15-03).
    Keywords: Seasonal forecast ; Temperature ; Fishery landings ; Lobster fishery ; Climate variability
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