ALBERT

Description: Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations from the CMIP5 archive to test this assumption for multi-year trends in global-average, annual-average temperature and precipitation at multiple timescales. We find that responses in models forced by pre-computed aerosol and ozone concentrations are generally additive across forcings; however, we demonstrate that there are significant nonlinearities in precipitation responses to dierent forcings in a configuration of the GISS model that interactively computes these concentrations from precursor emissions. We attribute these to dierences in ozone forcing arising from interactions between forcing agents. Our results suggest that attribution to specific forcings may be complicated in a model with fully interactive chemistry and may provide motivation for other modeling groups to conduct further single-forcing experiments.

Description: No abstract available

Description: For unmanned aerial systems (UAS) to be successfully deployed and integrated within the national airspace, it is imperative that they possess the capability to effectively complete their missions without compromising the safety of other aircraft, as well as persons and property on the ground. This necessity creates a natural requirement for UAS that can respond to uncertain environmental conditions and emergent failures in real-time, with robustness and resilience close enough to those of manned systems. We introduce a system that meets this requirement with the design of a real-time onboard system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components. This system can detect and diagnose failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on-the-fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; and (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software. We call this approach rt-R2U2, a name derived from its requirements. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual flight data from the NASA Swift UAS.

Description: Among its many other functions, the Federal Aviation Administrations En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) provides external systems with real-time air traffic data for flights in enroute airspace in the National Airspace System. It replaced the En Route Host computer and backup system used at 20 FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers (Centers) nationwide. Among the new features of ERAM, its output data stream of flight plan and track data includes a unique identifier for a flight originating in any one of the 20 ERAM Centers. The unique identifier, called the Global Unique Flight Identifier (GUFI), is persistent across all the Centers that track the flight. However, certain factors make it difficult to correlate data using the GUFI. First, the value of the GUFI is only unique within a time window of seven days. Second, the GUFI is attached only to flight-plan related data messages. Finally, track positions reported by ERAM do not reference the GUFI. In order to correlate historical as well as real time flight-plan and position related ERAM data, an efficient, heuristic approach was developed, and a prototype was developed. The approach showed that the processing speed, through parallel processing, is sufficient to correlate ERAM data in real-time. As described in this paper, when there are multiple track positions reported from multiple Centers within a few seconds, each position is assigned with a weighted score to indicate the quality of the position relative to its last know position. The weighted score can be used to eliminate potentially duplicate track positions. The approach is database-agnostic, and can be implemented in a Big Data system such as an Apache Hadoop system, as well as in traditional database systems.

Description: This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

Description: AEDT2b (Aviation Environment Design Tool version 2b) is FAA's aviation environmental consequence tool. We have integrated part of AEDT2b's fuel and emission computation modules with our FACET in the past years. This talk is to provide the feedback to AEDT2b's development team from a ATM researcher viewpoint.

Description: Silacyclopropynylidene, SiC2, is a known and highly abundant circumstellar molecule. Its spectrum has been established as a major component of lines observed toward the carbon-rich star IRC +10216 (CW Leonis). It has been detected in its low-lying v(sub 3) = 1 and 2 vibrational states as well as in various isotopic compositions. Increasing sensitivity and spatial resolution will enable many more emission or absorption lines to be detected. In order to detect new molecular species, unassigned lines of known species must be identified. This work uses established ab initio quartic force fields to produce data necessary for this classification of lines related to SiC2. Agreement between the theoretical vibrational frequencies and known rotational and spectroscopic constants is quite good, as good as 5 cm(exp -1) and 3 MHz, respectively in some cases. Additionally, experimentally unknown vibrational frequencies and rotational constants are provided for the first overtones and combination bands in addition to 3(sub v3), the second overtone of the low-lying antisymmetric stretch/carbide rotation mode. Frequencies of v(sub 3) = 3 low-J rotational transitions of the main isotopic species are also estimated from published data for v(sub 3) 2. Further, we determine rotational and centrifugal distortion parameters for which in most cases vibrational effects due to the v(sub 3) mode were reduced to first, and in several cases also to second order. These values may approximate equilibrium values better than the ground state values. The data produced herein will aid in the experimental and observational characterization of this known astromolecule in order to identify some of the unassigned lines for a known entity.

Description: Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

Description: Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

Description: Realization of the expected proliferation of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) depends on the development and validation of performance standards for UAS Detect and Avoid (DAA) Systems. The RTCA Special Committee 228 is charged with leading the development of draft Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA Systems. NASA, as a participating member of RTCA SC-228 is committed to supporting the development and validation of draft requirements for DAA surveillance system performance. A recent study conducted using NASA's ACES (Airspace Concept Evaluation System) simulation capability begins to address questions surrounding the development of draft MOPS for DAA surveillance systems. ACES simulations were conducted to study the performance of sensor systems proposed by the SC-228 DAA Surveillance sub-group. Analysis included but was not limited to: 1) number of intruders (both IFR and VFR) detected by all sensors as a function of UAS flight time, 2) number of intruders (both IFR and VFR) detected by radar alone as a function of UAS flight time, and 3) number of VFR intruders detected by all sensors as a function of UAS flight time. The results will be used by SC-228 to inform decisions about the surveillance standards of UAS DAA systems and future requirements development and validation efforts.

Description: Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.

Description: Carbonaceous chondrites contain a mixture of solar system condensates, presolar grains, and primitive organic matter. The CR3 chondrite QUE 99177 has undergone minimal al-teration [1], exemplified by abundant presolar silicates [2, 3] and anomalous organic matter [4]. Oxygen isotopic imaging studies of this meteorite have focused on finding submicrometer anomalous grains in fine-grained regions of thin sections. Here we present re-sults of an O isotopic survey of larger matrix grains.

Description: Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant interannual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Description: Past research on pyrocumulus electrification has demonstrated that a variety of lightning types can occur, including cloudtoground (CG) flashes, sometimes of dominant positive polarity, as well as small intracloud (IC) discharges in the upper levels of the pyrocloud. In Colorado during summer 2012, the first combined polarimetric radar, multiDoppler radar, and threedimensional lightning mapping array (LMA) observations of lightningproducing pyrocumulus were obtained. These observations suggested that the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) was not sensitive enough to detect the small IC flashes that appear to be the dominant mode of lightning in these clouds. However, after an upgrade to the network in late 2012, the NLDN began detecting some of this pyrocumulus lightning. Multiple pyrocumulus clouds documented by the University of Wisconsin for various fires in 2013 and 2014 (including over the Rim, West Fork Complex, Yarnell Hill, Hardluck, and several other incidents) are examined and reported on here. This study exploits the increasedsensitivity NLDN as well as the new nationwide U.S. network of polarimetric Nextgeneration Radars (NEXRADs). These observations document the common occurrence of a polarimetric "dirty ice" signature modest reflectivities (2040+ dBZ), nearzero differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (less than 0.9) prior to the production of lightning. This signature is indicative of a mixture of ash and ice particles in the upper levels of the pyrocloud (less than 20 C), with the ice interpreted as being necessary for pyrocloud electrification. PseudoGeostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data will be produced from the 2012 LMA observations, and the ability of GLM to detect small pyrocumulus ICs will be assessed. The utility of lightning and polarimetric radar for documenting rapid wildfire growth, as well as for documenting pyrocumulus impacts on the composition of the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), will be discussed.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Description: I will present and discuss the unique characteristics and capabilities of the laboratory facility, COSmIC, that was developed at NASA Ames to generate, process and analyze interstellar, circumstellar and planetary analogs in the laboratory. COSmIC stands for Cosmic Simulation Chamber and is dedicated to the study of molecules and ions under the low temperature and high vacuum conditions that are required to simulate interstellar, circumstellar and planetary physical environments in space. COSmIC integrates a variety of state-of-the-art instruments that allow forming, processing and monitoring simulated space conditions for planetary, circumstellar and interstellar materials in the laboratory. COSmIC is composed of a Pulsed Discharge Nozzle (PDN) expansion that generates a free jet supersonic expansion coupled to two ultrahigh-sensitivity, complementary in situ diagnostics: a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) system for photonic detection and a Reflectron Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ReTOF-MS) for mass detection. Recent, unique, laboratory astrophysics results that were obtained using the capabilities of COSmIC will be discussed, in particular the progress that have been achieved in deciphering the diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) and in monitoring in the laboratory the formation of solid dust grains from their gas-phase molecular precursors in environments as varied as stellarcircumstellar outflow and planetary atmospheres. Plans for future, next generation, laboratory experiments on cosmic molecules and grains in the growing field of laboratory astrophysics will also be addressed as well as the implications of these studies for current and upcoming space missions.

Description: We present new Hubble Space Telescope images of high-velocity H-alpha and Lyman-alpha emission in the outer debris of SN 1987A. The H-alpha images are dominated by emission from hydrogen atoms crossing the reverse shock. For the first time we observe emission from the reverse shock surface well above and below the equatorial ring, suggesting a bipolar or conical structure perpendicular to the ring plane. Using the H-alpha imaging, we measure the mass flux of hydrogen atoms crossing the reverse shock front, in the velocity intervals (7,500 〈 V(sub obs) 〈 2,800 km/s) and (1,000 〈 V(sub obs) 〈 7,500 km/s), M(sub H) = 1.2 10(exp 3) M/ y. We also present the first Lyman-alpha imaging of the whole remnant and new Chandra X-ray observations. Comparing the spatial distribution of the Lyman-alpha and X-ray emission, we observe that the majority of the high-velocity Lyman-alpha emission originates interior to the equatorial ring. The observed Lyman-alpha/H-alpha photon ratio, R(L-alpha/H-alpha) approx. = 17, is significantly higher than the theoretically predicted ratio of approx. = 5 for neutral atoms crossing the reverse shock front. We attribute this excess to Lyman-alpha emission produced by X-ray heating of the outer debris. The spatial orientation of the Lyman-alpha and X-ray emission suggests that X-ray heating of the outer debris is the dominant Lyman-alpha production mechanism in SN 1987A at this phase in its evolution.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We present the largest, publicly available, sample of Damped Lyman-alpha systems (DLAs) along Swift discovered Gamma-ray Bursts (GRB) line of sights in order to investigate the environmental properties of long GRB hosts in the z = 1.8 6 redshift range. Compared with the most recent quasar DLAs sample (QSO-DLA), our analysis shows that GRB-DLAs probe a more metal enriched environment at z approximately greater than 3, up to [X/H] approximately 0.5. In the z = 2 3 redshift range, despite the large number of lower limits, there are hints that the two populations may be more similar (only at 90% significance level) than at higher redshifts. Also, at high-z, the GRB-DLA average metallicity seems to decline at a shallower rate than the QSO-DLAs: GRB-DLA hosts may be polluted with metals at least as far as approximately 2 kpc from the GRB explosion site, probably due to previous star-formation episodes and/or supernovae explosions. This shallow metallicity trend, extended now up to z approximately 5, confirms previous results that GRB hosts are star-forming and have, on average, higher metallicity than the general QSO-DLA population. Finally, our host metallicity measurements are broadly consistent with the predictions derived from the hypothesis of two channels of GRB progenitors, one of which is mildly affected by a metallicity bias, although more data are needed to constrain the models at z approximately greater than 4.

Description: Supernova generated shock waves are responsible for most of the destruction of dust grains in the interstellar medium (ISM). Calculations of the dust destruction timescale have so far been carried out using plane parallel steady shocks, however that approximation breaks down when the destruction timescale becomes longer than that for the evolution of the supernova remnant (SNR) shock. In this paper we present new calculations of grain destruction in evolving, radiative SNRs. To facilitate comparison with the previous study by Jones et al. (1996), we adopt the same dust properties as in that paper. We find that the efficiencies of grain destruction are most divergent from those for a steady shock when the thermal history of a shocked gas parcel in the SNR differs significantly from that behind a steady shock. This occurs in shocks with velocities 200 km s(exp -1) for which the remnant is just beginning to go radiative. Assuming SNRs evolve in a warm phase dominated ISM, we find dust destruction timescales are increased by a factor of approximately 2 compared to those of Jones et al. (1996), who assumed a hot gas dominated ISM. Recent estimates of supernova rates and ISM mass lead to another factor of approximately 3 increase in the destruction timescales, resulting in a silicate grain destruction timescale of approximately 2-3 Gyr. These increases, while not able resolve the problem of the discrepant timescales for silicate grain destruction and creation, are an important step towards understanding the origin, and evolution of dust in the ISM.

Description: GEMS (glass with embedded metal and sulfide) grains in interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) are considered to be one of the ubiquitous and fundamental building blocks of solids in the Solar System. They have been considered to be interstellar silicate dust that survived various metamorphism or alteration processes in the protoplanetary disk but the elemental and isotopic composition measurements suggest that most of them have been formed in the protoplanetary disk as condensates from high temperature gas. This formation model is also supported by the formation of GEMS-like grains with respect to the size, mineral assemblage, texture and infrared spectrum by condensation experiments from mean GEMS composition materials. Previous GEMS studies were performed only with 2D observation by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) or scanning TEM (STEM). However, the 3D shape and structure of GEMS grains and the spatial distribution of Fe/FeS's has critical information about their formation and origin. Recently, the 3D structure of GEMS grains in ultrathin sections of cluster IDPs was revealed by electron tomography using a TEM/STEM (JEM-2100F, JEOL). However, CT images of thin sections mounted on Cu grids acquired by conventional TEM-tomography are limited to low tilt angles (e. g., less than absolute value of 75 deg. In fact, previous 3D TEM observations of GEMS were affected by some artifacts related to the limited tilt range in the TEM used. Complete tomographic images should be acquired by rotating the sample tilt angle over a range of more than absolute value of 80 deg otherwise the CT images lose their correct structures. In order to constrain the origin and formation process of GEMS grains more clearly, we performed complete electron tomography for GEMS grains. Here we report the sample preparation method we have developed for this study, and the preliminary results.

Description: In previous studies published in the open literature, a strong relationship between the occurrence of hail and the microwave brightness temperatures (primarily at 37 and 85 GHz) was documented. These studies were performed with the Nimbus7 SMMR, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and most recently, the Aqua AMSRE sensor. This lead to climatologies of hail frequency from TMI and AMSRE, however, limitations include geographical domain of the TMI sensor (35 S to 35 N) and the overpass time of the Aqua satellite (130 am/pm local time), both of which reduce an accurate mapping of hail events over the global domain and the full diurnal cycle. Nonetheless, these studies presented exciting, new applications for passive microwave sensors. Since 1998, NOAA and EUMETSAT have been operating the AMSUA/B and the MHS on several operational satellites: NOAA15 through NOAA19; MetOpA and B. With multiple satellites in operation since 2000, the AMSU/MHS sensors provide near global coverage every 4 hours, thus, offering a much larger time and temporal sampling than TRMM or AMSRE. With similar observation frequencies near 30 and 85 GHz and additionally three at the 183 GHz water vapor band, the potential to detect strong convection associated with severe storms on a more comprehensive time and space scale exists. In this study, we develop a prototype AMSUbased hail detection algorithm through the use of collocated satellite and surface hail reports over the continental U.S. for a 12year period (20002011). Compared with the surface observations, the algorithm detects approximately 40 percent of hail occurrences. The simple threshold algorithm is then used to generate a hail climatology that is based on all available AMSU observations during 200011 that is stratified in several ways, including total hail occurrence by month (March through September), total annual, and over the diurnal cycle. Independent comparisons are made compared to similar data sets derived from other satellite, ground radar and surface reports. The algorithm was also applied to global land measurements for a single year and showed close agreement with other satellite based hail climatologies. Such a product could serve as a prototype for use with a future geostationary based microwave sensor such as NASA's proposed PATH mission.

Description: NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is a cockpit decision support tool that provides aircrew with vertical and lateral flight-path optimizations with the intent of achieving significant fuel and time savings, while automatically avoiding traffic, weather, and restricted airspace conflicts. A key step towards the maturation and deployment of TAP concerned its operational evaluation in a representative flight environment. This Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) addresses the test-vehicle design, systems integration, and flight-test planning for the first TAP operational flight evaluations, which were successfully completed in November 2013. The trial outcomes are documented in the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight evaluation paper presented at the 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Atlanta, GA. (AIAA-2014-2166, Maris, J. M., Haynes, M. A., Wing, D. J., Burke, K. A., Henderson, J., & Woods, S. E., 2014).

Description: Many elements display both linear (mass-dependent) and non-linear (mass-independent) isotope anomalies (relative to a common reservoir). In early Solar System objects, with the exception of oxygen, mass-dependent isotope anomalies are most commonly thought to result from phase separation processes such as evaporation and condensation, whereas many mass-independent isotope anomalies likely reflect radiogenic ingrowth or incomplete mixing of presolar components in the proto-planetary disk. Coupling the isotopic characterization of multiple elements with differing volatilities in single objects may provide information regarding the location, source material, and/or processes involved in the formation of early Solar System solids. Here, we follow up on the work presented in, and detail new procedures developed to make high-precision multi-isotope measurements of Calcium, Chromium, and Titanium with small or limited amounts of sample using thermal ionization mass spectrometry and multi-collector ICP-MS, and characterize a suite of chondritic and terrestrial standards.

Description: Populations of compositionally distinct particles are fundamental components of undifferentiated chondritic meteorites. Many theories explain the formation of chondrites, one class of which includes mechanisms for sorting the component particles in the solar nebula prior to their accretion. Mechanisms include sorting by mass, turbulent concentration, X-winds, and photophoresis, which will produce characteristic distributions of observable properties such as particle size. Distinguishing processes that occur in specific astrophysical environments requires characterization of particle types, which include refractory Ca-Al-rich Inclusions (CAIs) and less-refractory chondrules. Previous investigations of modal abundances of CAIs and chondrules exist, but differences within and between these two groups, both of which are made up of diverse subgroups with different thermal histories and chemical compositions, remain mostly unstudied. The presence of rims, a significant event occurring after the formation of at least some chondrules, have also yet to be considered with respect to sorting. Here we present the sizes of CAIs and chondrules in Allende with attention to the smallest sizes, subgroups, and particle rims.

Description: This paper describes the background, method and results of the Arrival Metering Precision Study (AMPS) conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASA Ames Research Center in May 2014. The simulation study measured delivery accuracy, flight efficiency, controller workload, and acceptability of time-based metering operations to a meter fix at the terminal area boundary for different resolution levels of metering delay times displayed to the air traffic controllers and different levels of airspeed information made available to the Time-Based Flow Management (TBFM) system computing the delay. The results show that the resolution of the delay countdown timer (DCT) on the controllers display has a significant impact on the delivery accuracy at the meter fix. Using the 10 seconds rounded and 1 minute rounded DCT resolutions resulted in more accurate delivery than 1 minute truncated and were preferred by the controllers. Using the speeds the controllers entered into the fourth line of the data tag to update the delay computation in TBFM in high and low altitude sectors increased air traffic control efficiency and reduced fuel burn for arriving aircraft during time based metering.

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Description: Cloud computing capabilities have rapidly expanded within the private sector, offering new opportunities for meteorological applications. Collaborations between NASA Marshall, NASA Ames, and contractor partners led to evaluations of private (NASA) and public (Amazon) resources for executing short-term NWP systems. Activities helped the Marshall team further understand cloud capabilities, and benchmark use of cloud resources for NWP and other applications

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Description: Data from multiple sources is needed to investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain (on-shore vs. off-shore) by comparing natural cloud-to-ground lightning behavior differences depending on the characteristics of attachment mediums. The KSC Lightning Research Database (KLRD) was created to reduce manual data entry time and aid research by combining information from various data sources into a single record for each unique lightning event of interest. The KLRD uses automatic data handling functions to import data from a lightning detection network and identify and record lighting events of interest. Additional automatic functions import data from the NASA Buoy 41009 (located approximately 20 miles off the coast) and the KSC Electric Field Mill network, then match these electric field mill values to the corresponding lightning events. The KLRD calculates distances between each lightning event and the various electric field mills, aids in identifying the location type for each stroke (i.e., on-shore vs. off-shore, etc.), provides statistics on the number of strokes per flash, and produces customizable reports for quick retrieval and logical display of data. Data from February 2014 to date covers 48 unique storm dates with 2295 flashes containing 5700 strokes, of which 2612 are off-shore and 1003 are on-shore. The number of strokes per flash ranges from 1 to 22. The ratio of single to subsequent stroke flashes is 1.29 for off-shore strokes and 2.19 for on-shore strokes.

Description: Recent work by Levitan et al. has expanded the long-term photometric database for AM CVn stars. In particular, their outburst properties are well correlated with orbital period and allow constraints to be placed on the secular mass transfer rate between secondary and primary if one adopts the disk instability model for the outbursts. We use the observed range of outbursting behavior for AM CVn systems as a function of orbital period to place a constraint on mass transfer rate versus orbital period. We infer a rate approximately 5 x 10(exp -9) solar mass yr(exp -1) ((P(sub orb)/1000 s)(exp -5.2)). We show that the functional form so obtained is consistent with the recurrence time-orbital period relation found by Levitan et al. using a simple theory for the recurrence time. Also, we predict that their steep dependence of outburst duration on orbital period will flatten considerably once the longer orbital period systems have more complete observations.

Description: Context. The source(s) of the neutrino excess reported by the IceCube Collaboration is unknown. The TANAMI Collaboration recently reported on the multiwavelength emission of six bright, variable blazars which are positionally coincident with two of the most energetic IceCube events. Objects like these are prime candidates to be the source of the highest-energy cosmic rays, and thus of associated neutrino emission. Aims. We present an analysis of neutrino emission from the six blazars using observations with the ANTARES neutrino telescope. Methods. The standard methods of the ANTARES candidate list search are applied to six years of data to search for an excess of muons - and hence their neutrino progenitors - from the directions of the six blazars described by the TANAMI Collaboration, and which are possibly associated with two IceCube events. Monte Carlo simulations of the detector response to both signal and background particle fluxes are used to estimate the sensitivity of this analysis for di erent possible source neutrino spectra. A maximum-likelihood approach, using the reconstructed energies and arrival directions of through-going muons, is used to identify events with properties consistent with a blazar origin. Results. Both blazars predicted to be the most neutrino-bright in the TANAMI sample (1653-329 and 1714-336) have a signal flux fitted by the likelihood analysis corresponding to approximately one event. This observation is consistent with the blazar-origin hypothesis of the IceCube event IC 14 for a broad range of blazar spectra, although an atmospheric origin cannot be excluded. No ANTARES events are observed from any of the other four blazars, including the three associated with IceCube event IC20. This excludes at a 90% confidence level the possibility that this event was produced by these blazars unless the neutrino spectrum is flatter than -2.4.

Description: We report the results of a 28-month photometric campaign studying V1432 Aql, the only known eclipsing, asynchronous polar. Our data show that both the residual eclipse flux and eclipse OC timings vary strongly as a function of the spin-orbit beat period. Relying upon a new model of the system, we show that cyclical changes in the location of the threading region along the ballistic trajectory of the accretion stream could produce both effects. This model predicts that the threading radius is variable, in contrast to previous studies which have assumed a constant threading radius. Additionally, we identify a very strong photometric maximum which is only visible for half of the beat cycle. The exact cause of this maximum is unclear, but we consider the possibility that it is the optical counterpart of the third accreting polecap proposed by Rana et al. Finally, the rate of change of the white dwarf's spin period is consistent with it being proportional to the difference between the spin and orbital periods, implying that the spin period is approaching the orbital period asymptotically.

Description: The covering factor of Compton-thick (CT) obscuring material associated with the torus in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is at present best understood through the fraction of sources exhibiting CT absorption along the line of sight (N(sub H) greater than 1.5 x 10(exp 24) cm(exp 2)) in the X-ray band, which reveals the average covering factor. Determining this CT fraction is difficult, however, due to the extreme obscuration. With its spectral coverage at hard X-rays (greater than 10 keV), Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) is sensitive to the AGNs covering factor since Compton scattering of X-rays off optically thick material dominates at these energies. We present a spectral analysis of 10 AGNs observed with NuSTAR where the obscuring medium is optically thick to Compton scattering, so-called CT AGNs. We use the torus models of Brightman and Nandra that predict the X-ray spectrum from reprocessing in a torus and include the torus opening angle as a free parameter and aim to determine the covering factor of the CT gas in these sources individually. Across the sample we find mild to heavy CT columns, with N(sub H) measured from 10(exp 24) to 10(exp 26) cm(exp 2), and a wide range of covering factors, where individual measurements range from 0.2 to 0.9. We find that the covering factor, f(sub c), is a strongly decreasing function of the intrinsic 2-10 keV luminosity, L(sub X), where f(sub c) = (0.41 +/- 0.13)log(sub 10)(L(sub X)/erg s(exp 1))+18.31 +/- 5.33, across more than two orders of magnitude in L(sub X) (10(exp 41.5) - 10(exp 44) erg s(exp 1)). The covering factors measured here agree well with the obscured fraction as a function of LX as determined by studies of local AGNs with L(sub X) greater than 10(exp 42.5) erg s(exp 1).

Description: In core-collapse supernovae, titanium-44 (Ti-44) is produced in the innermost ejecta, in the layer of material directly on top of the newly formed compact object. As such, it provides a direct probe of the supernova engine. Observations of supernova 1987A (SN1987A) have resolved the 67.87- and 78.32-kilo-electron volt emission lines from decay of Ti-44 produced in the supernova explosion. These lines are narrow and redshifted with a Doppler velocity of ~700 kilometers per second, direct evidence of large-scale asymmetry in the explosion.

Description: The design of spaceborne high-energy (E is greater than 100 MeV) gamma-ray detectors depends on two principal factors: (1) the basic physics of detecting and measuring the properties of the gamma rays; and (2) the constraints of operating such a detector in space for an extended period. Improvements in technology have enabled major advances in detector performance, as illustrated by two successful instruments, EGRET on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory and LAT on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.

Description: Fifteen years of visible, near-infrared, and broadband shortwave radiance measurements from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on board NASA's Terra satellite are analyzed in order to assess their long-term relative stability for climate purposes. A regression-based approach between CERES, MODIS, and MISR (An camera only) reflectances is used to calculate the bias between the different reflectances relative to a reference year. When compared to the CERES shortwave broadband reflectance, relative drift between the MISR narrowbands is within 1%/decade. Compared to the CERES shortwave reflectance, the MODIS narrowband reflectances show a relative drift of less than 1.33%/decade. When compared to MISR, the MODIS reflectances show a relative drift of between 0.36%/decade and 2.66%/decade. We show that the CERES Terra SW measurements are stable over the time period relative to CERES Aqua. Using this as evidence that CERES Terra may be absolutely stable, we suggest that the CERES, MISR, and MODIS instruments meet the radiometric stability goals for climate applications set out in Ohring et al. (2005).

Description: We present the first spatially resolved polarized scattered light H-band detection of the DoAr 28 transitional disk. Our two epochs of imagery detect the scattered light disk from our effective inner working angle of 0 double prime.10 (13 AU) out to 0double prime.50 (65 AU). This inner working angle is interior to the location of the system's gap inferred by previous studies using spectral energy distribution modeling (15 AU). We detected a candidate point source companion 1 double prime.08 northwest of the system; however, our second epoch of imagery strongly suggests that this object is a background star. We constructed a grid of Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer models of the system, and our best fit models utilize a modestly inclined (50 degrees), 0.01 solar mass disk that has a partially depleted inner gap from the dust sublimation radius out to approximately 8 AU. Subtracting this best fit, axi-symmetric model from our polarized intensity data reveals evidence for two small asymmetries in the disk, which could be attributable to a variety of mechanisms.

Description: This paper presents DAIDALUS (Detect and Avoid Alerting Logic for Unmanned Systems), a reference implementation of a detect and avoid concept intended to support the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems into civil airspace. DAIDALUS consists of self-separation and alerting algorithms that provide situational awareness to UAS remote pilots. These algorithms have been formally specified in a mathematical notation and verified for correctness in an interactive theorem prover. The software implementation has been verified against the formal models and validated against multiple stressing cases jointly developed by the US Air Force Research Laboratory, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and NASA. The DAIDALUS reference implementation is currently under consideration for inclusion in the appendices to the Minimum Operational Performance Standards for Unmanned Aircraft Systems presently being developed by RTCA Special Committee 228.

Description: This paper describes a Detect and Avoid (DAA) concept for integration of UAS into the NAS developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and provides results from recent human-in-the-loop experiments performed to investigate interoperability and acceptability issues associated with these vehicles and operations. The series of experiments was designed to incrementally assess critical elements of the new concept and the enabling technologies that will be required.

Description: Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

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Description: Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a crucial role in the springtime chemical depletion of ozone at high latitudes. PSC particles (primarily supercooled ternary solution, or STS droplets) provide sites for heterogeneous chemical reactions that transform stable chlorine and bromine reservoir species into highly reactive ozone-destructive forms. Furthermore, large nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) PSC particles can irreversibly redistribute odd nitrogen through gravitational sedimentation (a process commonly known as denitrification), which prolongs the ozone depletion process by slowing the reformation of the stable chlorine reservoirs. Spaceborne observations from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) lidar on the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite are providing a rich new dataset for studying PSCs. CALIPSO is an excellent platform for studying polar processes with CALIOP acquiring, on average, over 300,000 backscatter profiles daily at latitudes between 55o and 82o in both hemispheres. PSCs are detected in the CALIOP backscatter profiles using a successive horizontal averaging scheme that enables detection of strongly scattering PSCs (e.g., ice) at the finest possible spatial resolution (5 km), while enhancing the detection of very tenuous PSCs (e.g., low number density NAT) at larger spatial scales (up to 135 km). CALIOP PSCs are separated into composition classes (STS; liquid/NAT mixtures; and ice) based on the ensemble 532-nm scattering ratio (the ratio of total-to-molecular backscatter) and 532-nm particulate depolarization ratio (which is sensitive to the presence of non-spherical, i.e. NAT and ice particles). In this paper, we will provide an overview of the CALIOP PSC detection and composition classification algorithm and then examine the vertical and spatial distribution of PSCs in the Arctic and Antarctic on vortex-wide scales for entire PSC seasons over the more than nine-year data record from 2006- 2015.

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Description: The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

Description: Cirrus clouds play a key role in the radiative and hydrological balance of the upper troposphere. Their correct representation in atmospheric models requires an understanding of the microscopic processes leading to ice nucleation. A key parameter in the theoretical description of ice nucleation is the activation energy, which controls the flux of water molecules from the bulk of the liquid to the solid during the early stages of ice formation. In most studies it is estimated by direct association with the bulk properties of water, typically viscosity and self-diffusivity. As the environment in the ice-liquid interface may differ from that of the bulk, this approach may introduce bias in calculated nucleation rates. In this work a theoretical model is proposed to describe the transfer of water molecules across the ice-liquid interface. Within this framework the activation energy naturally emerges from the combination of the energy required to break hydrogen bonds in the liquid, i.e., the bulk diffusion process, and the work dissipated from the molecular rearrangement of water molecules within the ice-liquid interface. The new expression is introduced into a generalized form of classical nucleation theory. Even though no nucleation rate measurements are used to fit any of the parameters of the theory the predicted nucleation rate is in good agreement with experimental results, even at temperature as low as 190 K, where it tends to be underestimated by most models. It is shown that the activation energy has a strong dependency on temperature and a weak dependency on water activity. Such dependencies are masked by thermodynamic effects at temperatures typical of homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets; however, they may affect the formation of ice in haze aerosol particles. The new model provides an independent estimation of the activation energy and the homogeneous ice nucleation rate, and it may help to improve the interpretation of experimental results and the development of parameterizations for cloud formation.

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Description: Cloud properties play a critical role in climate change. Monitoring cloud properties over long time periods is needed to detect changes and to validate and constrain models. The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has developed several cloud datasets from Aqua and Terra MODIS data to better interpret broadband radiation measurements and improve understanding of the role of clouds in the radiation budget. The algorithms applied to MODIS data have been adapted to utilize various combinations of channels on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the long-term time series of NOAA and MetOp satellites to provide a new cloud climate data record. These datasets can be useful for a variety of studies. This paper presents results of the MODIS and AVHRR analyses covering the period from 1980-2014. Validation and comparisons with other datasets are also given.

Description: New results for the development of the PCRTM model will be presented. The new results were used for IASI retrieval validation inter comparison and better results were obtained compare to other fast radiative transfer models.

Description: Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales were observed during ASCENDS flight campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200x300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Even over extended forests, about 2-ppm CO2 column variability was measured within about 500-km distance. For winter times, especially over snow covered ground, relatively less horizontal CO2 variability was observed, likely owing to minimal interactions between the atmosphere and land surface. Inter-annual variations of CO2 drawdown over cornfields in the Mid-West were found to be larger than 5 ppm due to slight differences in the corn growing phase and meteorological conditions even in the same time period of a year. Furthermore, considerable differences in atmospheric CO2 profiles were found during winter and summer campaigns. In the winter CO2 was found to decrease from about 400 ppm in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to about 392 ppm above 10 km, while in the summer CO2 increased from 386 ppm in the ABL to about 396 ppm in free troposphere. These and other CO2 observations are discussed in this presentation.

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Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate, and knowledge of its distribution and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Accurate observations of atmospheric CO2 are also crucial to improving our understanding of CO2 sources, sinks and transports. To meet these science needs, NASA is developing technologies for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission, which is aimed at global CO2 observations. Meanwhile an airborne investigation of atmospheric CO2 distributions as part of the NASA Suborbital Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America (ACT-America) mission will be conducted with lidar and in situ instrumentation over the central and eastern United States during all four seasons and under a wide range of meteorological conditions. In preparing for the ASCENDS mission, NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis Inc./Harris Corp. have jointly developed and demonstrated the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements with an intensity-modulated continuous-wave (IM-CW) lidar. Since 2005, a total of 14 flight campaigns have been conducted. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved, and the lidar CO2 measurements also agree well with in-situ observations. Significant atmospheric CO2 variations on various spatiotemporal scales have been observed during these campaigns. For example, around 10-ppm CO2 changes were found within free troposphere in a region of about 200A-300 sq km over Iowa during a summer 2014 flight. Results from recent flight campaigns are presented in this paper. The ability to achieve the science objectives of the ASCENDS mission with an IM-CW lidar is also discussed in this paper, along with the plans for the ACT-America aircraft investigation that begins in the winter of 2016.

Description: Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation.

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Description: The response of clouds to global warming represents a major uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. These uncertainties have been tracked to shallow marine clouds in the tropics and subtropics. CALIOP observations have already been used extensively to evaluate model predictions of shallow cloud fraction and top height (Leahy et al. 2013; Nam et al 2012). Tools are needed to probe the lowest levels of the troposphere. The large footprint of satellite lidars gives large multiple scattering from clouds which presents new possibilities for cloud retrievals to constrain model predictions.

Description: Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Description: This study evaluates the capability of atmospheric CO2 column measurements under cloudy conditions using an airborne intensity-modulated continuous-wave integrated-path-differential-absorption lidar operating in the 1.57-m CO2 absorption band. The atmospheric CO2 column amounts from the aircraft to the tops of optically thick cumulus clouds and to the surface in the presence of optically thin clouds are retrieved from lidar data obtained during the summer 2011 and spring 2013 flight campaigns, respectively.

Description: Common definitions of "safety case" emphasize that evidence is the basis of a safety argument, yet few widely referenced works explicitly define "evidence". Their examples suggest that similar things can be regarded as evidence. But the category evidence seems to contain (1) processes for finding things out, (2) information resulting from such processes, and (3) relevant documents. Moreover, any item of evidence could be replaced by further argument. Normative models of informal argumentation do not offer clear guidance on when a safety argument should cite evidence rather than appeal to a more detailed argument. Disciplines such as the law address the problem with a practical, domain-specific epistemology. In this paper, we explore these problems associated with evidence citations in safety arguments, identify goals for a theory of safety argument evidence and a practical safety argument epistemology, propose a model of safety evidence citation that advances the identified goals, and present a related extension to the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN).

Description: Atmospheric CO2 is a critical forcing for the Earth's climate and the knowledge on its distributions and variations influences predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions persist due to limited observations. This study uses the airborne Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IMCW) lidar developed at NASA Langley Research Center to measure regional atmospheric CO2 spatio-temporal variations. Further lidar development and demonstration will provide the capability of global atmospheric CO2 estimations from space, which will significantly advances our knowledge on atmospheric CO2 and reduce the uncertainties in the predictions of future climate. In this presentation, atmospheric CO2 column measurements from airborne flight campaigns and lidar system simulations for space missions will be discussed. A measurement precision of approx.0.3 ppmv for a 10-s average over desert and vegetated surfaces has been achieved. Data analysis also shows that airborne lidar CO2 column measurements over these surfaces agree well with in-situ measurements. Even when thin cirrus clouds present, consistent CO2 column measurements between clear and thin cirrus cloudy skies are obtained. Airborne flight campaigns have demonstrated that precise atmospheric column CO2 values can be measured from current IM-CW lidar systems, which will lead to use this airborne technique in monitoring CO2 sinks and sources in regional and continental scales as proposed by the NASA Atmospheric Carbon and Transport " America project. Furthermore, analyses of space CO2 measurements shows that applying the current IM-CW lidar technology and approach to space, the CO2 science goals of space missions will be achieved, and uncertainties in CO2 distributions and variations will be reduced.

Description: Atmospheric CO2 is the key radiative forcing for the Earth's climate and may contribute a major part of the Earth's warming during the past 150 years. Advanced knowledge on the CO2 distributions and changes can lead considerable model improvements in predictions of the Earth's future climate. Large uncertainties in the predictions have been found for decades owing to limited CO2 observations. To obtain precise measurements of atmospheric CO2, certain challenges have to be overcome. For an example, global annual means of the CO2 are rather stable, but, have a very small increasing trend that is significant for multi-decadal long-term climate. At short time scales (a second to a few hours), regional and subcontinental gradients in the CO2 concentration are very small and only in an order of a few parts per million (ppm) compared to the mean atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 400 ppm, which requires atmospheric CO2 space monitoring systems with extremely high accuracy and precision (about 0.5 ppm or 0.125%) in spatiotemporal scales around 75 km and 10-s. It also requires a decadal-scale system stability. Furthermore, rapid changes in high latitude environments such as melting ice, snow and frozen soil, persistent thin cirrus clouds in Amazon and other tropical areas, and harsh weather conditions over Southern Ocean all increase difficulties in satellite atmospheric CO2 observations. Space lidar approaches using Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) technique are considered to be capable of obtaining precise CO2 measurements and, thus, have been proposed by various studies including the 2007 Decadal Survey (DS) of the U.S. National Research Council. This study considers to use the Intensity-Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar to monitor global atmospheric CO2 distribution and variability from space. Development and demonstration of space lidar for atmospheric CO2 measurements have been made through joint adventure of NASA Langley Research Center and Exelis, Inc. As prototype space IPDA lidars, airborne laser absorption lidar systems operating in 1.57 CO2 absorption band have been developed and tested through lab, ground-based range, and flight campaigns. Very encouraging results have been obtained. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for clear sky IPDA measurements of CO2 differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) for a 10-s integration over vegetated areas with about 10 km range was found to be as high as 1300, resulting in an error 0.077% or equivalent CO2 mixing ratio (XCO2) column precision of ~0.3 ppm. Precise range measurements using the IM-CW lidar approach were also achieved, and the uncertainties have been shown to be at sub meter level. Based on the airborne lidar development, space lidar and atmospheric CO2 observations are simulated. It shows that with the IM-CW approach, accurate atmospheric CO2 measurements can be achieved from space, and a space mission such as that proposed by the DS will meet science goals of atmospheric CO2 monitoring.

Description: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

Description: Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Description: A condensate cloud on Titan identified by its 220 cm1 far-infrared signature continues to undergo seasonal changes at both the north and south poles. In the north, the cloud, which extends from 55 N to the pole, has been gradually decreasing in emission intensity since the beginning of the Cassini mission with a half-life of 3.8 years. The cloud in the south did not appear until 2012 but its intensity has increased rapidly, doubling every year. The shape of the cloud at the south pole is very different from that in the north. Mapping in 2013 December showed that the condensate emission was confined to a ring with a maximum at 80 S. The ring was centered 4deg from Titans pole. The pattern of emission from stratospheric trace gases like nitriles and complex hydrocarbons (mapped in 2014 January) was also offset by 4deg, but had a central peak at the pole and a secondary maximum in a ring at about 70 S with a minimum at 80 S. The shape of the gas emission distribution can be explained by abundances that are high at the atmospheric pole and diminish toward the equator, combined with correspondingly increasing temperatures. We discuss possible causes for the condensate ring. The present rapid build up of the condensate cloud at the south pole is likely to transition to a gradual decline from 2015 to 2016. Key words: molecular processes - planets and satellites: atmospheres - planets and satellites: composition - planets and satellites: individual (Titan) - radiation mechanisms: thermal

Description: The Galactic Centre hosts a puzzling stellar population in its inner few parsecs, with a high abundance of surprisingly young, relatively massive stars bound within the deep potential well of the central supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (ref. 1). Previous studies suggest that the population of objects emitting soft X-rays (less than 10 kiloelectronvolts) within the surrounding hundreds of parsecs, as well as the population responsible for unresolved X-ray emission extending along the Galactic plane, is dominated by accreting white dwarf systems2, 3, 4, 5.

Description: Flight deck-based vision systems, such as Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) and Enhanced Flight Vision Systems (EFVS), have the potential to provide additional margins of safety for aircrew performance and enable the implementation of operational improvements for low visibility surface, arrival, and departure operations in the terminal environment with equivalent efficiency to visual operations. Twelve air transport-rated crews participated in a motion-base simulation experiment to evaluate the use of SVS/EFVS in Next Generation Air Transportation System low visibility approach and landing operations at Chicago O'Hare airport. Three monochromatic, collimated head-up display (HUD) concepts (conventional HUD, SVS HUD, and EFVS HUD) and three instrument approach types (straight-in, 3-degree offset, 15-degree offset) were experimentally varied to test the efficacy of the SVS/EFVS HUD concepts for offset approach operations. The findings suggest making offset approaches in low visibility conditions with an EFVS HUD or SVS HUD appear feasible. Regardless of offset approach angle or HUD concept being flown, all approaches had comparable ILS tracking during the instrument segment and were within the lateral confines of the runway with acceptable sink rates during the visual segment of the approach. Keywords: Enhanced Flight Vision Systems; Synthetic Vision Systems; Head-up Display; NextGen

Description: In the constant drive to further the safety and efficiency of air travel, the complexity of avionics-related systems, and the procedures for interacting with these systems, appear to be on an ever-increasing trend. While this growing complexity often yields productive results with respect to system capabilities and flight efficiency, it can place a larger burden on pilots to manage increasing amounts of information and to understand intricate system designs. Evidence supporting this observation is becoming widespread, yet has been largely anecdotal or the result of subjective analysis. One way to gain more insight into this issue is through experimentation using more objective measures or indicators. This study utilizes and analyzes eye-tracking data obtained during a high-fidelity flight simulation study wherein many of the complexities of current flight decks, as well as those planned for the next generation air transportation system (NextGen), were emulated. The following paper presents the findings of this study with a focus on electronic flight bag (EFB) usage, system state awareness (SSA) and events involving suspected inattentional blindness (IB).

Description: On-demand mobility (ODM) through aviation refers to the ability to quickly and easily move people or equivalent cargo without delays introduced by lack of, or infrequently, scheduled service. A necessary attribute of ODM is that it be easy to use, requiring a minimum of special training, skills, or workload. Fully-autonomous vehicles would provide the ultimate in ease-of-use (EU) but are currently unproven for safety-critical applications outside of a few, situationally constrained applications (e.g. automated trains operating in segregated systems). Applied to aviation, the current and near-future state of the art of full-autonomy, may entail undesirable trade-offs such as very conservative operational margins resulting in reduced trip reliability and transportation utility. Furthermore, acceptance by potential users and regulatory authorities will be challenging without confidence in autonomous systems in developed in less critical, but still challenging applications. A question for the aviation community is how we can best develop practical ease-of-use for aircraft that are sized to carry a small number of passengers (e.g. 1-9) or equivalent cargo. Such development is unlikely to be a single event, but rather a managed, evolutionary process where responsibility and authority transitions from human to automation agents as operational experience is gained with increasingly intelligent systems. This talk presents a technology road map being developed at NASA Langley, as part of an overall strategy to foster ODM, for the development of ease-of-use for ODM aviation.

Description: NASA has been developing and testing the Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept for aircraft operations featuring a NASA-developed cockpit automation tool, the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP), which computes traffic/hazard-compatible route changes to improve flight efficiency. The TAP technology is anticipated to save fuel and flight time and thereby provide immediate and pervasive benefits to the aircraft operator, as well as improving flight schedule compliance, passenger comfort, and pilot and controller workload. Previous work has indicated the potential for significant benefits for TASAR-equipped aircraft, and a flight trial of the TAP software application in the National Airspace System has demonstrated its technical viability. This paper reviews previous and ongoing activities to prepare TASAR for operational use.

Description: Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Description: Several public sector businesses and government agencies, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are currently working on solving key technological barriers that must be overcome in order to realize the vision of low-boom supersonic flights conducted over land. However, once these challenges are met, the manner in which this class of aircraft is integrated in the National Airspace System may become a potential constraint due to the significant environmental, efficiency, and economic repercussions that their integration may cause. Background research was performed on historic supersonic operations in the National Airspace System, including both flight deck procedures and air traffic controller procedures. Using this information, an experiment was created to test some of these historic procedures in a current-day, emerging Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) environment and observe the interactions between commercial supersonic transport aircraft and modern-day air traffic. Data was gathered through batch simulations of supersonic commercial transport category aircraft operating in present-day traffic scenarios as a base-lining study to identify the magnitude of the integration problems and begin the exploration of new air traffic management technologies and architectures which will be needed to seamlessly integrate subsonic and supersonic transport aircraft operations. The data gathered include information about encounters between subsonic and supersonic aircraft that may occur when supersonic commercial transport aircraft are integrated into the National Airspace System, as well as flight time data. This initial investigation is being used to inform the creation and refinement of a preliminary Concept of Operations and for the subsequent development of technologies that will enable overland supersonic flight.

Description: The performance of the conflict detection function in a separation assurance system is dependent on the content and quality of the data available to perform that function. Specifically, data quality and data content available to the conflict detection function have a direct impact on the accuracy of the prediction of an aircraft's future state or trajectory, which, in turn, impacts the ability to successfully anticipate potential losses of separation (detect future conflicts). Consequently, other separation assurance functions that rely on the conflict detection function - namely, conflict resolution - are prone to negative performance impacts. The many possible allocations and implementations of the conflict detection function between centralized and distributed systems drive the need to understand the key relationships that impact conflict detection performance, with respect to differences in data available. This paper presents the preliminary results of an analysis technique developed to investigate the impacts of data quality and data content on conflict detection performance. Flight track data recorded from a day of the National Airspace System is time-shifted to create conflicts not present in the un-shifted data. A methodology is used to smooth and filter the recorded data to eliminate sensor fusion noise, data drop-outs and other anomalies in the data. The metrics used to characterize conflict detection performance are presented and a set of preliminary results is discussed.

Description: This study examined air traffic controller acceptability ratings based on the effects of differing horizontal miss distances (HMDs) for encounters between UAS and manned aircraft. In a simulation of the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) East-side airspace, the CAS-1 experiment at NASA Langley Research Center enlisted fourteen recently retired DFW air traffic controllers to rate well-clear volumes based on differing HMDs that ranged from 0.5 NM to 3.0 NM. The controllers were tasked with rating these HMDs from "too small" to "too excessive" on a defined, 1-5, scale and whether these distances caused any disruptions to the controller and/or to the surrounding traffic flow. Results of the study indicated a clear favoring towards a particular HMD range. Controller workload was also measured. Data from this experiment and subsequent experiments will play a crucial role in the FAA's establishment of rules, regulations, and procedures to safely and efficiently integrate UAS into the NAS.

Description: No abstract available

Description: NIST produces large-format, dual-polarization-sensitive detector arrays for a broad range of frequencies (30-1400 GHz). Such arrays enable a host of astrophysical measurements. Detectors optimized for cosmic microwave background observations are monolithic, polarization-sensitive arrays based on feedhorn and planar Nb antenna-coupled transition-edge superconducting (TES) bolometers. Recent designs achieve multiband, polarimetric sensing within each spatial pixel. In this proceeding, we describe our multichroic, feedhorn-coupled design; demonstrate performance at 70-380 GHz; and comment on current developments for implementation of these detector arrays in the advanced Atacama Cosmology Telescope receiver

Description: In this paper two frequency domain techniques are applied to air traffic analysis. The Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT), like the Fourier Transform, is shown to identify changes in historical traffic patterns caused by Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) and weather with the added benefit of detecting when in time those changes take place. Next, with the expectation that it could detect anomalies in the network and indicate the extent to which they affect traffic flows, the Spectral Graph Wavelet Transform (SGWT) is applied to a center based graph model of air traffic. When applied to simulations based on historical flight plans, it identified the traffic flows between centers that have the greatest impact on either neighboring flows, or flows between centers many centers away. Like the CWT, however, it can be difficult to interpret SGWT results and relate them to simulations where major TMIs are implemented, and more research may be warranted in this area. These frequency analysis techniques can detect off-nominal air traffic behavior, but due to the nature of air traffic time series data, so far they prove difficult to apply in a way that provides significant insight or specific identification of traffic patterns.

Description: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP operates under the umbrella of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), which examines multiple intervals in Earth history, the consistency of model predictions in simulating these intervals and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved in geological climate archives. This paper provides a thorough model intercomparison project description, and documents the experimental design in a detailed way. Specifically, this paper describes the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for the experiments in Phase 2 of PlioMIP.

Description: Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) Project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.

Description: Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, are derived from observations to be approximately 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.

Description: Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallowdeep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallowdeep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convectionmoisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.

Description: A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

Description: The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

Description: The variability of cirrus ice microphysical properties is investigated using observations obtained during the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign. An existing approach that represents a size distribution (SD) as a single gamma function using an ellipsoid of equally realizable solutions in (N(sub 0), lambda, mu) phase space is modified to automatically identify multiple modes in SDs and characterize each mode by such an ellipsoid. The modified approach is applied to ice crystals with maximum dimension D greater than15 micrometers collected by the 2-D stereo and 2-D precipitation probes on the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet. The dependencies of N(sub 0), mu, and lambda from each mode, total number concentration, bulk extinction, ice water content (IWC), and mass median maximum dimension D(sub mm) as a function of temperature T and cirrus type are then analyzed. The changes in the observed codependencies between N(sub 0), mu, and lambda, bulk extinction, IWC, and D(sub mm) with environmental conditions indicate that particles were larger at higher T during SPARTICUS. At most two modes were observed in any SD during SPARTICUS, with the average boundary between them at 115 micrometers, similar to past studies not using probes with shatter mitigating tips and artifact removal algorithms. The bimodality of the SDs increased with T. This and the differences in N(sub 0), mu, and lambda between the modes suggest that particles with smaller D nucleated more recently than particles with larger D, which grew via vapor deposition and aggregation. Because smaller crystals, whose concentrations are uncertain, make marginal contributions to higher order moments, the use of higher moments for evaluating model fields is suggested.

Description: Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Description: The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Description: In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Nia in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Nio phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Nia episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

Description: High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.