ALBERT

Description: The primary function of the TRMM Ground Validation (GV) Program is to create GV rainfall products that provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements for select primary sites. Since the successful 1997 launch of the TRMM satellite, GV rainfall estimates have demonstrated systematic improvements directly related to improved radar and rain gauge data, modified science techniques, and software revisions. Improved rainfall estimates have resulted in higher quality GV rainfall products and subsequently, much improved evaluation products for the satellite-based precipitation estimates from TRMM. This presentation will demonstrate how TRMM GV rainfall products created in a semi-automated, operational environment have evolved and improved through successive generations. Monthly rainfall maps and rainfall accumulation statistics for each primary site will be presented for each stage of GV product development. Contributions from individual product modifications involving radar reflectivity (Ze)-rain rate (R) relationship refinements, improvements in rain gauge bulk-adjustment and data quality control processes, and improved radar and gauge data will be discussed. Finally, it will be demonstrated that as GV rainfall products have improved, rainfall estimation comparisons between GV and satellite have converged, lending confidence to the satellite-derived precipitation measurements from TRMM.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was successfully launched in November 1997.The main purpose of TRMM is to sample tropical rainfall using the first active spaceborne precipitation radar. To validate TRMM satellite observations, a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program has been implemented. The primary goal of TRMM GV is to provide basic validation of satellite-derived precipitation measurements over monthly climatologies for the following primary sites: Melbourne, FL; Houston, TX; Darwin, Australia- and Kwajalein Atoll, RMI As part of the TRMM GV effort, research analysts at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) generate standardized rainfall products using quality-controlled ground-based radar data from the four primary GV sites. This presentation will provide an overview of TRMM GV climatological processing and product generation. A description of the data flow between the primary GV sites, NASA GSFC, and the TRMM Science and Data Information System (TSDIS) will be presented. The radar quality control algorithm, which features eight adjustable height and reflectivity parameters, and its effect on monthly rainfall maps, will be described. The methodology used to create monthly, gauge-adjusted rainfall products for each primary site will also be summarized. The standardized monthly rainfall products are developed in discrete, modular steps with distinct intermediate products. A summary of recently reprocessed official GV rainfall products available for TRMM science users will be presented. Updated basic standardized product results involving monthly accumulation, Z-R relationship, and gauge statistics for each primary GV site will also be displayed.

Description: The presence of clouds dramatically alters the opacity and radiative transfer within Earth's atmosphere at both short and long wavelengths. Knowledge of cloud top and base is needed to estimate the Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) to space and the net radiation at the surface from a given atmospheric profile. Satellite observations are required to provide the global perspective needed for climate. Cloud top pressure can be determined to some accuracy from spaceborne radiance measurements when cloud opacities are sufficiently large and cloud top temperatures are sufficiently low to readily them from the surface. Cloud base is particularly difficult to determine from space. The relatively small sensitivity of long wavelengths must be used to penetrate the clouds while at the same time providing sufficient sensitivity to detect the cloud base. We are studying the indirect sensitivity of radio occultation observations to clouds through their impact on the refractivity structure. The tradewind inversion is an excellent example where a very sharp refractivity structure coincides with the top of the tradewind cumulus and stratus clouds. In general, any cloud with sufficient IR opacity will have large transmissivity gradient at cloud top (base) which will result in large cooling (heating) which will create a thermal inversion at cloud top (base). Both liquid and ice clouds can reach this critical opacity. The thermal inversion and sharp change in specific humidity will cause a sharp change in the refractivity gradient which can be identified in the radio occultation results, particularly the signal amplitude. The occultations yield very accurate information on the height of such features. The heating at cloud base drives convection causing the air to follow a moist adiabat within the Cloud which further helps constrain the interpretation of the observations. The upward expansion of such opaque clouds due to convection may be an important mechanism supplying moisture into the upper troposphere. We will present simulations using high resolution radiosondes from field campaigns representing the expected signatures of such features. We will also present initial results of comparisons between GPS observations and GOES-derived cloud tops to assess the utility of this concept.

Description: The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Description: Experiments were conducted to determine the flux of dust (particles less than few microns in diameter) under Martian atmospheric conditions for surface of three aerodynamic roughness (z(sub 0)). For smooth surface on Mars (z(sub 0) = 0.00125 cm corresponding to 0.0125 cm on Mars) suspension threshold was not achieved at the highest velocities run (u(sub 0) = 322 cm/s); for a moderately rough surface (z(sub 0) = 0.010 cm corresponding to 0.01 cm on Mars), flux averaged 1.5 x 10(exp -7)g/sq cm/s; for a rough surface (z(sub 0) = 0.015 cm corresponding to 0.15 cm on Mars), flux averaged 5 x 10(exp -7) g/sq cm/s. Although the results are preliminary, flux varied widely as a function of wind speed and roughness, suggesting that raising dust into suspension on Mars is complex. Nonetheless, using these results as a guide, 9000 Mt of dust could be raised into the atmosphere of Mars per second from only 5% of the surface.

Description: During the Puerto Rico Dust Experiment (PRIDE) upwelling and downwelling solar spectral irradiance was measured on board the SPAWAR Navajo and downwelling solar spectral flux was measured at a surface site using the NASA Ames Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer. These data will be used to determine the net solar radiative forcing of dust aerosol and to quantify the solar spectral radiative energy budget in the presence of elevated aerosol loading. We will assess the variability in spectral irradiance using formal principal component analysis procedures and relate the radiative variability to aerosol microphysical properties. Finally, we will characterize the sea surface reflectance to improve aerosol optical depth retrievals from the AVHRR satellite and to validate SeaWiFS ocean color products.

Description: Corrections have recently been reported (Giver et al.) on the short-wave (visible and near-infrared) line intensities of water vapor that were catalogued in the spectroscopic database known as HITRAN. These updates have been posted on www.hitran.com, and are being used to reanalyze the polar stratospheric absorption in the 0.94 microns band as observed in POAM. We are currently investigating additional improvement in the 1.13 microns band using data obtained by us with an absorption path length of 1.107 km and 4 torr of water vapor and the ab initio line list of Partridge and Schwenke (needs ref). We are proposing the following four types of improvement of the HITRAN database in this region: 1) HITRAN has nearly 200 lines in this region without proper assignments of rotational quantum levels. Nearly all of them can now be assigned. 2) We have measured positions of the observable H2O-17 and H2O-18 lines. These lines in HITRAN currently have approximate positions based upon rather aged computations. 3) Some additional lines are observed and assigned which should be included in the database. 4) Corrections are necessary for the lower state energies E" for the HITRAN lines of the 121-010 "hot" band.

Description: The Puerto Rico Dust Experiment (PRIDE) was conducted during June/July of 2000 to study the properties of Saharan dust aerosols transported across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Islands. During PRIDE, the NASA Ames Research Center six-channel (380 - 1020 nm) airborne autotracking sunphotometer (AATS-6) was operated aboard a Piper Navajo airplane alongside a suite of in situ aerosol instruments. The in situ aerosol instrumentation relevant to this paper included a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP-100) and a Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (PCASP), covering the radius range of approx. 0.05 to 10 microns. The simultaneous and collocated measurement of multi-spectral aerosol optical depth and in situ particle size distribution data permits a variety of closure studies. For example, vertical profiles of aerosol optical depth obtained during local aircraft ascents and descents can be differentiated with respect to altitude and compared to extinction profiles calculated using the in situ particle size distribution data (and reasonable estimates of the aerosol index of refraction). Additionally, aerosol extinction (optical depth) spectra can be inverted to retrieve estimates of the particle size distributions, which can be compared directly to the in situ size distributions. In this paper we will report on such closure studies using data from a select number of vertical profiles at Cabras Island, Puerto Rico, including measurements in distinct Saharan Dust Layers. Preliminary results show good agreement to within 30% between mid-visible aerosol extinction derived from the AATS-6 optical depth profiles and extinction profiles forward calculated using 60s-average in situ particle size distributions and standard Saharan dust aerosol refractive indices published in the literature. In agreement with tendencies observed in previous studies, our initial results show an underestimate of aerosol extinction calculated based on the in situ size distributions relative to the extinction obtained from the sunphotometer measurements. However, a more extensive analysis of all available AATS-6 and in situ size distribution data is necessary to ascertain whether the preliminary results regarding the degree of extinction closure is representative of the entire range of dust conditions encountered in PRIDE. Finally, we will compare the spectral extinction measurements obtained in PRIDE to similar data obtained in Saharan dust layers encountered above the Canary Islands during ACE-2 (Aerosol Characterization Experiment) in July 1997. Thus, the evolution of Saharan dust spectral properties during its transport across the Atlantic can be investigated, provided the dust origin and microphysical properties are found to be comparable.

Description: The water balance of a hurricane is controlled by boundary layer inflow, near vertical motion in the eyewall causing coalescence precipitation at above and residual ice precipitation at below freezing temperatures, and cirrus outflow at below -40 C aloft. In this paper we address the question of efficiency of water removal by this cirrus outflow which is important for the release of latent heat at high altitudes and its role in the dynamic flow at that level. During NASA's 1998 Convection and Moisture Experiment campaign we acquired microphysical outflow data in order to (1) determine the release and redistribution of latent heat near the top of hurricanes, (2) aid in TRMM algorithm development for remote sensing of precipitation, and (3) determine the optical/radiative characteristics of hurricane outflow. The data were acquired with Particle Measuring Systems two dimensional imaging spectrometers. On 23 August and again during the hurricane's landfall on 26 August, 1998, the NASA DC-8 aircraft penetrated hurricane 'Bonnie' four times each near 200 hPa pressure altitude. The eye crossing times were determined by (1) zero counts of cloud particles, (2) approximately 5 C increases in static and potential temperatures, and (3) minima in speeds and changes of direction of horizontal winds. The vertical winds showed shear between -6 m per second and +4 m per second and tangential winds approached 30 m per second in the eyewall. The particle volumes in the eyewall (determined by the pixels the particles shadowed in the direction of flight [x-direction] and normally to it by the number of diodes that they shadowed [y-direction]) ranged between 0.5 and 5.0 cubic centimeters per cubic meter. With a particle density near 0.2 g per cubic centimeter (determined from in situ melting and evaporation on a surface collector), the 1.0 g per meter corresponding mass of cloud ice ranged between 0.27 and 2.7 g per kilograms yielding horizontal fluxes between 8.1 and 81 g per square meters per second. The outflow ice was concentrated in crystals of a modal size of 190 micrometers. The particle size distributions were heavily skewed toward sizes with 98% of all cirrus particles smaller than the modal size comprising, however, only 20% of the mass. Thus the smaller than modal size particles dominantly affected the optical/radiative characteristics of the cloud, whereas the larger than modal size crystals determined the ice mass, hence dominated latent heating. Questions to be addressed relate to the origin of individual ice particles as the hurricane evolved and the likelihood of pristine and aggregate particle formation under the complicated conditions of rotation and outflow in the eyewall.

Description: Atmospheric temperature measurement at three heights with thin wire thermocouples on the 1.1 m Mars Pathfinder meteorology must allow estimates of the integral scale of the atmospheric thermal turbulence during an 83 sol period that begins in the summer. The integral scale is a measure for regions of perturbations. In turbulent media that roughly characterizes locations where the perturbations are correlated. Excluding some to intervals with violent excursions of the mean temperatures, integral scale values are found that increase relatively rapidly from a few tenths meters or less near down to several meters by mid-morning. During mid-morning, the diurnal and shorter time scale wind direction variations often place the meteorology mast in the thermal wake of the Lander.

Description: Recent satellite and in situ measurements have indicated that limited denitrification can occur in the Arctic stratosphere. In situ measurements from the SOLVE campaign indicate polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) composed of small numbers (about 3 x 10^ -4 cm^-3) of 10-20 micron particles (probably NAT or NAD). These observations raise the issue of whether low number density NAT PSCs can substantially denitrify the air with reasonable cloud lifetimes. In this study, we use a one dimensional cloud model to investigate the verticle redistribution of HNO3 by NAT/NAD PSCs. The cloud formation is driven by a temperature oscillation which drops the temperature below the NAT/NAD formation threshold (about 195 K) for a few days. We assume that a small fraction of the available aerosols act as NAT nuclei when the saturation ratio of HNO3 over NAT(NAD) exceeds 10(l.5). The result is a cloud between about 16 and 20 km in the model, with NAT/NAD particle effective radii as large as about 10 microns (in agreement with the SOLVE data). We find that for typical cloud lifetimes of 2-3 days or less, the net depletion of HNO3 is no more than 1-2 ppbv, regardless of the NAT or NAD particle number density. Repeated passes of the air column through the cold pool build up the denitrification to 3-4 ppbv, and the cloud altitude steadily decreases due to the downward transport of nitric acid. Increasing the cloud lifetime results in considerably more effective denitrification, even with very low cloud particle number densities. As expected, the degree of denitrification by NAT clouds is much larger than that by NAD Clouds. Significant denitrification by NAD Clouds is only possible if the cloud lifetime is several days or more. The clouds also cause a local maximum HNO3 mixing ratio at cloud base where the cloud particles sublimate.

Description: SOLVE measurements have been compared with results from a microphysical model to understand the composition and formation of the polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) observed during SOLVE. Evidence that the majority of the particles remain liquid throughout the winter will be presented. However, a small fraction of the particles do freeze, and the presence of these frozen particles can not be explained by current theories, in which the only freezing mechanism is homogeneous freezing to ice below the ice frost point. Alternative formation mechanisms, in particular homogeneous freezing above the ice frost point and heterogeneous freezing, have been explored using the microphysical model. Both nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and nitric acid dihydrate (NAD) have been considered as possible compositions for the solid-phase nitric acid aerosols. Comparisons between the model results and the SOLVE measurements will be used to constrain the possible formation mechanisms. Other effects of these frozen particles will also be discussed, in particular denitrification.

Description: To evaluate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) monthly Ground Validation (GV) rain map, 42 quality controlled tipping bucket rain gauge data (1 minute interpolated rain rates) were utilized. We have compared the gauge data to the surface volumetric rainfall accumulation of NEXRAD reflectivity field, (converting to rain rates using a 0.5 dB resolution smooth Z-R table). The comparison was carried out from data collected at Melbourne, Florida during the month of July 98. GV operational level 3 (L3 monthly) accumulation algorithm was used to obtain surface volumetric accumulations for the radar. The gauge records were accumulated using the 1 minute interpolated rain rates while the radar Volume Scan (VOS) intervals remain less than or equal to 75 minutes. The correlation coefficient for the radar and gauge totals for the monthly time-scale remain at 0.93, however, a large difference was noted between the gauge and radar derived rain accumulation when the radar data interval is either 9 minute, or 10 minute. This difference in radar and gauge accumulation is being explained in terms of the radar scan strategy information. The discrepancy in terms of the Volume Coverage Pattern (VCP) of the NEXRAD is being reported where VCP mode is ascertained using the radar tilt angle information. Hourly radar and gauge accumulations have been computed using the present operational L3 method supplemented with a threshold period of +/- 5 minutes (based on a sensitivity analysis). These radar and gauge accumulations are subsequently improved using a radar hourly scan weighting factor (taking ratio of the radar scan frequency within a time bin to the 7436 total radar scans for the month). This GV procedure is further being improved by introducing a spatial smoothing method to yield reasonable bulk radar to gauge ratio for the hourly and daily scales.

Description: The temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere is critical for understanding polar ozone levels. As temperatures drop below about 195 K, polar stratospheric clouds form, which then convert HCl and ClONO2 into reactive forms that are catalysts for ozone loss reactions. Hence, the lower stratospheric temperature during the March period is a key parameter for understanding polar ozone losses. The temperature is basically understood to be a result of planetary waves which drive the polar temperature away from a cold "radiative equilibrium" state. This is demonstrated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis calculations of the heat flux and the mean polar temperature. The temperature during the March period is fundamentally driven by the integrated impact of large scale waves moving from the troposphere to the stratosphere during the January through February period.

Description: Before the last decades of the 20th century, observations were rarely adequate to assess the role of mesoscale circulations in the formation of tropical cyclones. Recent developments in remote-sensing technology have allowed routine collection of measurements that reveal the small- and mesoscale structure of forming tropical cyclones. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Description: The development and validation of a new altimeter wind speed model will be presented. This algorithm provides a direct mapping of TOPEX-measured backscatter and significant wave height to 10 m wind speed. A large scatterometer/altimeter crossover data set was assembled to develop the routine and several large ancillary data sets have been assembled for validation purposes. Validation results suggest that this two input routine provides marginal, yet measurable improvements over the standard single-parameter MCW algorithm.

Description: The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve profiles of latent heating over the global tropics for a period of several months using TRMM precipitation radar data. The seasonal variation of heating over the tropics is then examined. The period of interest also coincides with several TRMM field campaigns that recently occurred over the South China Sea in 1998 (SCSMEX), Brazil in 1999 (TRMM-LBA), and in the central Pacific in 1999 (KWAJEX). Sounding diagnosed Q1 budgets from these experiments could provide a means of validating the retrieved profiles of latent heating from the CSH algorithm.

Description: The NASA aircraft instrumented with airborne radars overflew a number of stratiform rain systems during the Texas and Florida Underflights Experiment-B TEFLUN-B) and TRMM-LBA (LBA). TEFLUN-B was conducted near Melbourne Florida during late Summer 1998 for validation of the TRMM satellite. LBA was conducted in Rondonia, Brazil in the Amazon region. Key in these campaigns were the ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft, as well as extensive ground-validation networks including the NCAR S-band (S-POL) polarization radar and University of North Dakota Citation II in situ microphysics measurements. This paper compares the vertical structure of precipitation and vertical motions for four cases: 5 September 1998 and 13 August 1998 during TEFLUN-B and 17 February 1999 and 21 February 1999 during LBA. Both these stratiform systems were within close range of the S-POL radar, and were sampled with downlooking radars and radiometers on the ER-2 (and DC-8 during LBA). Emphasis in the paper is on statistics of the vertical hydrometeor profiles, and their relation to the vertical velocity structure deduced from the ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) measurements. These profiles are used to identify whether growth regions exist as would be expected with mesoscale updrafts often associated with stratiform regions. Finally, rain rates in the stratiform rain derived from EDOP and S-POL are compared.

Description: The GCSS Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) is conducting a systematic comparison and evaluation of cirrus cloud models. This fundamental activity seeks to support the improvement of models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction through assessment and improvement of the "process" models underlying parametric treatments of cirrus cloud processes in large-scale models. The WG2 Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison Project is an initial comparison of cirrus cloud simulations by a variety of cloud models for a series of idealized situations with relatively simple initial conditions and forcing. The models (16) represent the state-of-the-art and include 3-dimensional large eddy simulation (LES) models, two-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs), and single column model (SCM) versions of GCMs. The model microphysical components are similarly varied, ranging from single-moment bulk (relative humidity) schemes to fully size-resolved (bin) treatments where ice crystal growth is explicitly calculated. Radiative processes are included in the physics package of each model. The baseline simulations include "warm" and "cold" cirrus cases where cloud top initially occurs at about -47C and -66C, respectively. All simulations are for nighttime conditions (no solar radiation) where the cloud is generated in an ice supersaturated layer, about 1 km in depth, with an ice pseudoadiabatic thermal stratification (neutral). Continuing cloud formation is forced via an imposed diabatic cooling representing a 3 cm/s uplift over a 4-hour time span followed by a 2-hour dissipation stage with no cooling. Variations of these baseline cases include no-radiation and stable-thermal-stratification cases. Preliminary results indicated the great importance of ice crystal fallout in determining even the gross cloud characteristics, such as average vertically-integrated ice water path (IWP). Significant inter-model differences were found. Ice water fall speed is directly related to the shape of the particle size distribution and the habits of the ice crystal population, whether assumed or explicitly calculated. In order to isolate the fall speed effect from that of the associated ice crystal population, simulations were also performed where ice water fall speed was set to the same constant value everywhere in each model. Values of 20 and 60 cm/s were assumed. Current results of the project will be described and implications will be drawn. In particular, this exercise is found to strongly focus the definition of issues resulting in observed inter-model differences and to suggest possible strategies for observational validation of the models. The next step in this project is to perform similar comparisons for well observed case studies with sufficient high quality data to adequately define model initiation and forcing specifications and to support quantitative validation of the results.

Description: The ENSO phenomenon is characterized by fluctuations in the climate system of the tropical Pacific. Quantifying changes in the precipitation component of this system is important in understanding the distribution of heating in the atmosphere which drives the large-scale circulation and affects the weather patterns in the mid-latitudes. Monitoring precipitation anomalies in the Pacific is also an important component for tracking the evolution of ENSO. The most timely and complete observations of the earth come from satellite instruments. In this study, the state of the art satellite-gauge merged monthly precipitation data set from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to depict tropical rainfall patterns during ENSO events over the past two decades and quantify these patterns using indices. This analysis will be complemented by daily precipitation data which can resolve the Madden-Julian Oscillation and westerly wind burst events. The 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina were the best observed ENSO cycle in the historic record. Prior to the El Nino (in terms of anomalous warming of the east Pacific) dry anomalies over the Maritime Continent were observed in February 1997 as a westerly wind burst advected convection to the east. The largest SST anomalies occurred around November-December 1997, which were followed by the largest precipitation anomalies in the beginning of 1998. The largest precipitation departures from normal were not colocated with the SST anomalies, but were further west, In the spring of 1998 negative precipitation anomalies to the north of the equator intensified, signaling the mature phase of the El Nino. A rapid increase in the precipitation-based La Nina index from December-January 1998 to March-April 1998 signaled the coming La Nina. The 1982-1983 El Nino was comparable in strength (according to several indices) and the precipitation patterns evolved in a similar fashion. For the 1998-2000 La Nina, the coldest anomalies, were confined to the central equatorial Pacific, while the driest anomalies were found in the west Pacific,

Description: We report on the development of GLOW (Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds), a mobile Doppler lidar system which uses direct detection Doppler lidar techniques to measure wind profiles from the surface into the lower stratosphere. The system employs a Nd:YAG laser transmitter to measure winds using either aerosol backscatter at a wavelength of 1064 run or molecular backscatter at 355 nm. The system is modular in design to allow the incorporation of new technologies as they become available. GLOW is intended to be used as a deployable field system for studying atmospheric dynamics and transport and can also serve as a testbed to evaluate candidate technologies developed for use in future spaceborne systems. Finally it can be used for calibration/validation activities following launch of spaceborne wind lidar systems. A description of the mobile system is presented along with the first validated lidar wind profiles obtained with the system using a new molecular 'double edge' receiver.

Description: An international "Intercomparison of 3-dimensional (3D) Radiation Codes" 13RC) has been initiated. It is endorsed by the GEWEX Radiation Panel, and funded jointly by the United States Department of Energy ARM program, and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Radiation Sciences program. It is a 3-phase effort that has as its goals to: (1) understand the errors and limits of 3D methods; (2) provide 'baseline' cases for future 3D code development; (3) promote sharing of 3D tools; (4) derive guidelines for 3D tool selection; and (5) improve atmospheric science education in 3D radiation.

Description: Multiple scattering by clouds and aerosol is a significant factor for space borne laser radar measurements. Principally forward scattering within the receiver field of view increases the observed signal magnitude and caused pulse stretching. For the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System multiple scattering effects both the retrieval of the optical properties of clouds and aerosol and the surface altitude measurements. The effects have been extensively modeled by Monte Carlo and analytic methods. The results are summarized and approaches to minimize errors associated with multiple scattering are presented..

Description: Fast-forward twenty years to the nightly simultaneous TV/webcast. Accurate 8-14 day regional forecasts will be available as will be a whole host of linked products including economic impact, travel, energy usage, etc. On-demand, personalized street-level forecasts will be downloaded into your PDA. Your home system will automatically update the products of interest to you (e.g. severe storm forecasts, hurricane predictions, etc). Short and long range climate forecasts will be used by your "Quicken 2020" to make suggest changes in your "futures" investment portfolio. Through a lively and informative multi-media presentation, leading Space-Earth Science Researchers and Technologists will share their vision for the year 2020, offering a possible futuristic forecast enabled through the application of new technologies under development today. Copies of the 'broadcast' will be available on Beta Tape for your own future use. If sufficient interest exists, the program may also be made available for broadcasters wishing to do stand-ups with roll-ins from the San Francisco meeting for their viewers back home.

Description: The AROTEL instrument, deployed on the NASA DC-8 at Kiruna, Sweden for the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE), flew over the NDSC station operated by the Alfred Wegner Institute at Ny Aalesund, Spitsbergen. AROTEL ozone and temperature measurements made during near overflights of Ny Aalesund are compared with sonde ozone and temperature, and lidar ozone measurements from the NDSC station. Nine of the seventeen science flights during the December through March measurement period overflew near Ny Aalesund. Agreement of AROTEL with the ground-based temperature and ozone values at altitudes from just above the aircraft to about 30 km gives strong confidence in using AROTEL temperature and ozone mixing ratio to study the mechanisms of ozone loss in the winter arctic polar region.

Description: At approximately 04:00 UTC on 4 May (23:00 CDT on 3 May) 1999 the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory made an overpass during the Central Oklahoma tornado outbreak. Supercells D4 and G5 were observed by a unique suite of scientific instruments aboard TRMM. The TRMM observatory was launched in November 1997 into a low earth orbit providing global coverage of storms from 35 degrees N latitude to 35 degrees S latitude from an altitude of 350 km. The instruments include the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) which measures total lighting activity (in-cloud as well as cloud-to-ground), the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) which measures precipitation and cloud microphysical characteristics, the Precipitation Radar (PR) which is the first meteorological radar flown in low earth orbit, and the Visible/InfraRed Sensor (VIRS) which measures cloud top characteristics such as cloud top temperature in the visible and infrared with high (2 km) spatial resolution. Supercell D4 at Stroud, Oklahoma produced the greatest lightning rates (exceeding 225 flashes per minute) observed worldwide to date by the LIS. The presentation will present detailed observations of the the supercells observed during the TRMM overpass.

Description: Temperature measurements obtained using the passive falling sphere technique in 1991, 1993, and again in 1999 are being used to study the relationship between the neutral atmosphere and Noctilucent Clouds (NLC) The earlier NLC studies provided useful information on the behavior of the neutral atmosphere. The recent study program, the Distribution and Role of Particles in the Polar Summer Mesosphere (DROPPS) produced additional significant information of the neutral atmosphere and Noctilucent Cloud (NLC) association. Temperature lapse rates from seven rocket observations that were generally monatonic indicated changes at the mesopause during the NLC event of 5 July. Between 5 July, 2313 UTC and 6 July 0209 UTC, the temperature lapse rate between about 85 and 92 km was different and the altitude of the minimum temperature changed by 5 km. Furthermore, change in wind direction and speed, although not yet fully analyzed, may be associated with the change of the temperature structure, possibly due to advection. Comparisons are made between the meteorological conditions during the NLC events of 1991, 1993, and 1999.

Description: AIRS (Atmospheric Infra Red Sounder) is the first of a series of next generation high spectral resolution infrared sounders which will fly on satellite missions in the next decade. AIRS is a 2368 channel grating spectrometer, with spectral resolving power of roughly upsilon / DELTA upsilon) = 1200, which will fly on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua platform in December 2000 accompanied by Advanced Micowave Sounding Unit (AMSU) A and High Spatial Bandwidth (HSB), which is similar to AMSU B. New methodology has been developed by the AIRS Science Team to analyze AIRS/AMSU/HSB data in the presence of multilayer broken clouds. The baseline AIRS/AMSU products include surface skin temperature, surface spectral emissivity, atmospheric temperature-moisture-ozone profiles and cloud heights and amounts. Research products include CO and CH4 profiles, total CO2 burden, and OLR. This methodology will be briefly described and results will be shown of AIRS Science Team simulations, based on one day of simulated global data. RMS errors of atmospheric temperature profiles are expected to be better than 1 K for 1 km layer mean temperatures in up to 80% multilayer fractional cloud cover and RMS errors for moisture profiles are better than 15% for 2 km layers throughout the troposphere.

Description: A technique for estimating monthly oceanic rainfall rate using multi-channel microwave measurements has been developed. This technique is applied to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data since 1987 to infer monthly rainfall for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). A modified version of this algorithm is now being applied to the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. There are three prominent features of this algorithm. First, the knowledge of the form of the rainfall intensity probability density function used to augment the measurements. Second, utilizing a linear combination of the 19.35 and 22.235 GHz channels to deemphasize the effect of water vapor. Third, an objective technique has been developed to estimate the rain layer thickness from the 19.35 and 22.23 5 GHz brightness temperature histograms, TMI data with better spatial resolution and 24 hour sampling (vs. sun-synchronized sampling, which is limited to two narrow intervals of local solar time for DMSP satellites) prompt us to study the similarity and difference between these two rainfall estimates. One year of rainfall data (January to December 1998) are used in this study. The mean differences of these two rain estimates are typically less than 15%. Statistical tests are administrated to evaluate the differences between rainfall estimates from SSM/I and TMI data. Differences between TMI and SSM/I rain estimates are discussed in the context of radiative transfer calculations and rainfall estimate algorithm.

Description: The American Meteorological Society held its Tenth Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography in conjunction with the 80th Annual Meeting in Long Beach, California. For the second consecutive conference, a format that consisted of primarily posters, complemented by invited theme oriented oral presentations, and panel discussions on various aspects on satellite remote sensing were utilized. Joint sessions were held with the Second Conference on Artificial Intelligence, the Eleventh Conference on Middle Atmosphere, and the Eleventh symposium on Global Change Studies. In total, there were 23 oral presentations, 170 poster presentations, and four panel discussions. Over 450 people representing a wide spectrum of the society attended one or more of the sessions in the five-day meeting. The program for the Tenth Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography can viewed in the October 1999 issue of the Bulletin.

Description: At approximately 04:00 UTC on 4 May (23:00 CDT on 3 May) 1999 the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory made an overpass during the Central Oklahoma tornado outbreak. Supercells D4 and G5 were observed by a unique suite of scientific instruments aboard TRMM. The TRMM observatory was launched in November 1997 into a low earth orbit providing global coverage of storms from 35 degrees N latitude to 35 degrees S latitude from an altitude of 350 km. The instruments include the Lighting Imaging Sensor (LIS) which measures total lighting activity (in-cloud as well as cloud-to-ground), the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) which measures precipitation and cloud microphysical characteristics, the Precipitation Radar (PR) which is the first meteorological radar flown in low earth orbit, and the Visible/InfraRed Sensor (VIRS) which measures cloud top characteristics such as cloud top temperature in the visible and infrared with high (2 km) spatial resolution. Supercell D4 at Stroud, Oklahoma produced the greatest lightning rates (exceeding 225 flashes per minute) observed worldwide to date by the LIS. The presentation will present detailed satellite and ground based observations of the supercells observed during the TRMM overpass.

Description: The TAPPS employs the MASS model to produce mesoscale atmospheric simulations in support of the Wake Vortex project at Dallas Fort-Worth International Airport (DFW). A post-processing scheme uses the simulated three-dimensional atmospheric characteristics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to calculate the turbulence quantities most important to the dissipation of vortices: turbulent kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rate. TAPPS will ultimately be employed to enhance terminal area productivity by providing weather forecasts for the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). The post-processing scheme utilizes experimental data and similarity theory to determine the turbulence quantities from the simulated horizontal wind field and stability characteristics of the atmosphere. Characteristic PBL quantities important to these calculations are determined based on formulations from the Blackadar PBL parameterization, which is regularly employed in the MASS model to account for PBL processes in mesoscale simulations. The TAPPS forecasts are verified against high-resolution observations of the horizontal winds at DFW. Statistical assessments of the error in the wind forecasts suggest that TAPPS captures the essential features of the horizontal winds with considerable skill. Additionally, the turbulence quantities produced by the post-processor are shown to compare favorably with corresponding tower observations.

Description: The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Description: At the end of the first year, we remain on schedule. Property owners were identified and contacted for land access purposes. A prototype software package has been completed and was demonstrated to the Division of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), National Weather Service (NWS) and Pacific Disaster Center (PDC). A field crew gathered data and surveyed the areas surrounding two dams in Waimea. (A field report is included in the annual report.) Data sensitivity analysis was initiated and completed. A user's manual has been completed. Beta testing of the software was initiated, but not completed. The initial TNK and property owner data collection for the additional test sites on Oahu and Kauai have been initiated.

Description: Hurricane information and climatologies are needed at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Florida for launch operational planning purposes during the late summer and early fall Atlantic hurricane season. Also these results are needed to be used in estimating the potential magnitudes of hurricane and tropical storm impact on coastal Florida sites when passing within 50, 100 and 400 nm of that site. Roll-backs of the Space Shuttle and other launch vehicles, on pad, are very costly when a tropical storm approaches. A decision for the vehicle to roll-back or ride-out needs to be made. Therefore the historical Atlantic basin hurricane climatological properties were generated to be used for operational planning purposes and in the estimation of potential damage to launch vehicles, supporting equipment, buildings, etc.. The historical 1885-1998 Atlantic basin hurricane data were compiled and analyzed with respect to the coastal Florida site of KSC. Statistical information generated includes hurricane and tropical storm probabilities for path, maximum wind, and lowest pressure, presented for the areas within 50, 100 and 400 nm of KSC. These statistics are then compared to similar parametric statistics for the entire Atlantic basin.

Description: Although many long-term simulations of snow accumulation and oblation have been made using stand-alone land surface models and surface models coupled with GCMs, less research has focused on short-term event simulations. Actually, accurate event simulations of snow-related processes are the basis for successful long-term simulation. Three advantages of event simulations of snowfall and snow melting are availability of: (1) intensive observation data from field experiments for validation; (2) more physically-realistic precipitation schemes for use in atmospheric models to simulate snowfall; and (3) a more detailed analysis of the snow melting processes. In addition to the complexities of snow related processes themselves, terrain-induced effects on snowfall/snow melting make simulations of snow events more difficult. Climatological observations indicate that terrain features such as the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming can exert important effects on snow accumulation and snow oblation processes. One of the primary effects is that the orography causes forced uplift of airflow and causes atmospheric waves to form both upwind and downwind of it. Airflow often splits around the obstacle, converging on the lee side. This convergence may lead to precipitation enhancement. It also provides an elevated heat and moisture source that enhances atmospheric instability. During the period of April 5-May 5, 1999, the Upper Missouri River Basin Pilot Project (UMRBPP) made intensive observations on precipitation events occurring in the Black Hills. Two moderate snowfall events were captured during the period. The resulting high temporal and spatial resolution data provides opportunities to investigate terrain effects on snowfall amount, distribution, and melting. Successful simulation of snowfall amount, distribution, and evolution using atmospheric models is important to subsequent modeling of snow melting using snow sub-models in land surface schemes. In this paper, a coupled model system, consisting of an atmosphere model (ARPS) and a land-surface model (revised NCAR LSM), is used to simulate one of these UMRBPP cases.

Description: A preliminary field test of the accuracy of wind velocity measurements obtained using global positioning system-tracked rawinsonde balloons has been performed. Wind comparisons have been conducted using global positioning system (GPS) and radio automatic theodolite sounder (RATS) rawinsondes and a high-precision range instrumentation radar-tracked reflector. Wind velocity differences between the GPS rawinsondes and the radar were significantly less than between the RATS rawinsondes and the radar. These limited test results indicate a root-mean-square wind velocity difference from 4.98 kn (2.56 m/sec) for the radar and RATS to 1.09 kn (0.56 m/sec) for the radar and GPS. Differences are influenced by user reporting requirements, data processing techniques, and the inherent tracking accuracies of the system. This brief field test indicates that the GPS sounding system tracking data are more precise than the RATS system. When high-resolution wind data are needed, use of GPS rawinsonde systems can reduce the burden on range radar operations.

Description: On 26 August 1998, hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC. The NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 2.2 km height documented the sea surface directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft ground track included both segments along the shoreline and Pamlico Sound as well as far offshore. An animation of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall will be presented and contrasted with the spatial variation when Bonnie was in the open ocean on 24 August 1998.

Description: A preliminary field test of the accuracy of wind velocity measurements obtained using global positioning system-tracked rawinsonde balloons has been performed. Wind comparisons have been conducted using global positioning system (GPS) and radio automatic theodolite sounder (RATS) rawinsondes and a high-precision range instrumentation radar-tracked reflector. Wind velocity differences between the GPS rawinsondes and the radar were significantly less than between the RATS rawinsondes and the radar. These limited test results indicate a root-mean-square wind velocity difference from 4.98 kn (2.56 m/sec) for the radar and RATS to 1.09 kn (0.56 m/sec) for the radar and GPS. Differences are influenced by user reporting requirements, data processing techniques, and the inherent tracking accuracies of the system. This brief field test indicates that the GPS sounding system tracking data are more precise than the RATS system. When high-resolution wind data are needed, use of GPS rawinsonde systems can reduce the burden on range radar operations.

Description: About fifty percent of all hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean form within African easterly waves (AEW). Many previous studies have indicated that these waves result from combined barotropic-baroclinic instability of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). The AEJ is in turn believed to be due to the strong temperature gradient between the very warm Sahara Desert and the cooler Sahel and Gulf of Guinea to the south. Zonally averaged latitude-pressure cross-sections of summertime zonal winds over Africa show the AEJ as a 8-12 m/s jet centered at 600-700 mb near 15 N. Such cross-sections also show a weaker southern hemisphere easterly jet near 5-150S, monsoonal westerlies centered beneath the AEJ, and upper tropospheric features such as the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) near 30N and the subtropical westerly jet near 35ON . Thomcroft and Blackburn performed zonally symmetric simulations that showed that the effect of thermal wind balance over the observed low level meridional temperature gradient over northern Africa is particularly important in the formation of the AEJ. They also found that in order to reproduce some of the other aforementioned features of the summertime climatological wind field over Africa it is necessary to include the effects of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) convective heating. While the diabatic effects of Saharan and ITCZ heating tend to strengthen the AEJ, AEW remove energy from the AEJ, thereby weakening it. In this study we take the next step towards understanding the maintenance of the AEJ by including the effects of AEW.

Description: Airborne meteorological radars typically operate at attenuating wavelengths. The path integrated attenuation (PIA) can be estimated using the surface reference technique (SRT). In this method, an initial value is determined for the radar cross section of the earth surface in a rain-free area in relatively close proximity to the rain cloud. During subsequent observations of precipitation any decrease 'in the observed surface cross section from the reference value s assumed to be a result of the two-way attenuation along the propagation path. In this paper we present selected instances of high PIA observed over land by an airborne radar. The observations were taken in Brazil and Florida during TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) field campaigns. We compared these observations with collocated and nearly simultaneous ground-based radar observations by an S-band radar that is not subject to significant attenuation. In this preliminary evaluation, a systematic difference in the attenuation in the two storms is attributed to a difference in the raindrop size distributions; this is supported by observations of ZDR (differential reflectivity).

Description: It is well known that during El Nino years severe drought occurs in the area of Amazon and northeastern Brazil. According to the linear model result the reduced latent heating over the Amazon may lead to a weaker than normal upper tropospheric Bolivian high. As a result, some studies have suggested a weaker South American summer monsoon (SASM) during El Nino years. Using re-analysis. Zhou and Lau data found a statistically significant positive correlation between the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the strength of low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the tropical-subtropical Andes. Douglas also showed a strong LLJ at Santa Cruz, Bolivia during a special pilot balloon observation period in 1997/98 El Nino austral summer. Since this LLJ is an integral part of the monsoon system in the summertime, these results indicated that SASM could be stronger than normal in El Nino years. To clarify this issue, we conducted an investigation on SASM anomaly in the recent ENSO event of 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina In the following we first give a brief review on SASM and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over South America. Then, the impact of 1997-99 ENSO on the South American regional thermal structure and its dynamical consequences to SASM will be discussed.

Description: Wind profile measurement and the simulation of aerodynamic loads on a launch vehicle play an important role in determining launch capability and post launch assessment of the vehicle's performance. To date, all United States range certified wind profile measurement systems have been based on balloon tracking. Since the 1960's, the standard used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Air Force at the Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) for detailed wind profile measurements has been the radar tracked, aerodynamically stabilized Jimsphere balloon system. Currently, the Air Force is nearing certification and operational implementation of the Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) at CCAS and Vandenburg Air Force Base (VAFB). AMPS uses the Global Positioning System for tracking the Jimsphere balloon. It is anticipated that the AMPS/Jimsphere, named the High Resolution Flight Element (HRFE), will have equivalent, or better resolution than the radar tracked Jimsphere, especially when the balloon is far downrange, at a low elevation angle. By the 1980's, the development of Doppler Wind Profilers (DWP) had become sufficiently advanced to justify an experimental measurement program at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In 1989 a 50 MHz DWP was installed at KSC. In principal, the 50 MHz DWP has the capability to track the evolution of wind profile dynamics within 5 minutes of a launch. Because of fundamental differences in the measurement technique, there is a significant time and space differential between 50 MHz DWP and HRFE wind profiles. This paper describes a study to quantify these differences from a sample of 50 MHz DWP/HRFE pairs obtained during the AMPS certification test program.

Description: Extreme seasonal fluctuations of the surface-air temperature characterize the climate of central Europe, 45-60 deg North Temperature difference between warm 1990 and cold 1996 in the January-March period, persisting for more than two weeks at a time, amounted to 18 C for extensive areas. These anomalies in the surface-air temperature stem in the first place from differences in the low level flow from the eastern North-Atlantic: the value of the Index 1na of southwesterlies over the eastern North-Atlantic was 8.0 m/s in February 1990, but only 2.6 m/ s in February 1996. The primary forcing by warm advection to positive anomalies in monthly mean surface temperature produced strong synoptic-scale uplift at the 700 mb level over some regions in Europe. The strong uplift contributed in 1990 to a much larger cloud-cover over central Europe, which reduced heat-loss to space (greenhouse effect). Thus, spring arrived earlier than usual in 1990, but later than usual in 1996.

Description: The NAcA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar has made measurements of water vapor and aerosols for almost ten years. Calibration of the water vapor data has typically been performed by comparison with another water vapor sensor such as radiosondes. We present a new method for water vapor calibration that only requires low clouds, and surface pressure and temperature measurements. A sensitivity study was performed and the cloud base algorithm agrees with the radiosonde calibration to within 10- 15%. Knowledge of the true atmospheric lapse rate is required to obtain more accurate cloud base temperatures. Analysis of water vapor and aerosol measurements made in the vicinity of Hurricane Bonnie are discussed.

Description: This document contains a basic analysis of the meteorology associated with the NASA Glenn Twin Otter icing encounters between December 1997 and March 1998. The purpose of this analysis is to provide a meteorological context for the aircraft data collected during these flights. For each case, the following data elements are presented: (1) A brief overview of the Twin Otter encounter, including locations, liquid water contents, temperatures and microphysical makeup of the clouds and precipitation aloft, (2) Upper-air charts, providing hand-analyzed locations of lows, troughs, ridges, saturated/unsaturated air, temperatures, warm/cold advection, and jet streams, (3) Balloon-borne soundings, providing vertical profiles of temperature, moisture and winds, (4) Infrared and visible satellite data, providing cloud locations and cloud top temperature, (5) 3-hourly surface charts, providing hand-analyzed locations of lows, highs, fronts, precipitation (including type) and cloud cover, (6) Hourly, regional radar mosaics, providing fine resolution of the locations of precipitation (including intensity and type), pilot reports of icing (including intensity and type), surface observations of precipitation type and Twin Otter tracks for a one hour window centered on the time of the radar data, and (7) Hourly plots of icing pilot reports, providing the icing intensity, icing type, icing altitudes and aircraft type. Outages occurred in nearly every dataset at some point. All relevant data that was available is presented here. All times are in UTC and all heights are in feet above mean sea level (MSL).

Description: This part of the document contains an analysis of the meteorology associated with the premier icing encounters from the January-March 1997 NASA Twin Otter dataset. The purpose of this analysis is to provide a meteorological context for the aircraft data collected during these flights. For each case, the following data elements are presented: (1) A detailed discussion of the Twin Otter encounter, including locations, liquid water contents, temperatures and microphysical makeup of the clouds and precipitation aloft, (2) Upper-air charts, providing hand-analyzed locations of lows, troughs, ridges, saturated/unsaturated air, temperatures, warm/cold advection, and jet streams, (3) Balloon-borne soundings, providing vertical profiles of temperature, moisture and winds, (4) Infrared satellite data, providing cloud locations and cloud top temperature, (5) 3-hourly surface charts, providing hand-analyzed locations of lows, highs, fronts, precipitation (including type) and cloud cover, (6) Hourly plots of icing pilot reports, providing the icing intensity, icing type, icing altitudes and aircraft type, (7) Hourly, regional radar mosaics, providing fine resolution of the locations of precipitation (including intensity and type), pilot reports of icing (including intensity and type), surface observations of precipitation type and Twin Otter tracks for a one hour window centered on the time of the radar data, and (8) Plots of data from individual NEXRAD radars at times and elevation angles that have been matched to Twin Otter flight locations. Outages occurred in nearly every dataset at some point. All relevant data that was available is presented here. All times are in UTC and all heights are in feet above mean sea level (MSL).

Description: Moderate resolution spectra of the downwelling solar irradiance at the ground in north central Oklahoma were measured during the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Intensive Observation Period in the fall of 1997. Spectra obtained under cloud-free conditions were compared with calculations using a coarse resolution radiative transfer model to examine the dependency of model-measurement bias on water vapor. It was found that the bias was highly correlated with water vapor and increased at a rate of 9 Wm(exp -2) per cm of water. The source of the discrepancy remains undetermined because of the complex dependencies of other variables, most notably aerosol optical depth, on water vapor.

Description: Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

Description: Since 1995 we have had one or more optical lightning sensors in low earth orbit (LEO) providing near continuous lightning observations of the earth. The resulting data sets have enabled scientists to study global lighting distributions and their variable. Diurnal, seasonal and interannual variabilities are clearly revealed. In addition, because of the exceptionally high detection efficiency of the optical sensing technique and the high spatial resolution, it is possible to study individual clouds and cloud system despite a viewing time that is often as short as 80 seconds. These case studies have demonstrated the importance of total lightning measurements in the study of severe weather. Results from these space-based lightning measurements will be presented as well as the next logical concept - optical observations from geostationary orbit (GEO). With a Lightning Mapper Sensor (LMS) in GEO, it will be possible to monitor severe weather on a continuous basis and to disseminate the data in less than 60 seconds.

Description: Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) is an experiment in measuring rainfall and the associated latent heat release from space. A primary goal is to help in initializing the large-scale weather and climate models for crucial improvement in location and profile of atmospheric heat release. For this, precipitation and latent heating profiles are needed. This goal requires cloud-resolving models. The basic approach was to use passive microwave and rain radar in combination to issue a limited number of products, improving the retrieval algorithms by testing during flight, so the products are updated annually. Despite a tight budget, the TRMM observatory and data system worked excellently from launch for the past three years. A basic philosophy has been to do physical validation as much as possible, in preference to empirical adjustments for algorithm improvement. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Description: The wealth of in-situ measurements gathered during Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns over a wide range of tropical conditions constitute an important data source for evaluating the quality of global model forecasts and assimilated datasets. In this study we use selected observations of cloud microphysics and atmospheric sounding from TEFLUN-1998, SCEMEX-1998, and TRMMLBA-1999 to examine the assimilation and forecast fields produced by the operational GEOS-3 (Goddard Earth Observing System - version 3) global data assimilation system (DAS) and a new finite-volume DAS under development at the Data Assimilation Office. Additionally, TRMM field campaign measurements are used to verify the impact of assimilating rainfall and moisture data derived from TRMM Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager instruments on the GEOS analysis. We will also explore issues concerning the 'error of representativeness' in using in-situ observations of quantities with large spatial and temporal variability such as precipitation for validating gridded global data products.

Description: The outstanding success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) stemmed from a near flawless launch and deployment, a high successful measurement campaign, achievement of all original scientific objectives before the mission life had ended, and the accomplishment a number of unanticipated but important additional scientific advances This success and the realization that satellite rainfall datasets are now foremost tool in the understanding of decadal climate variability has helped motivate a comprehensive global rainfall measuring mission called "The Global Precipitation Mission" (GPM). The intent of this mission is to address looming scientific questions arising in the contex global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction, the global carbon budget, and atmosphere-biosphere-cryosphere chemistry. This paper addresses the status and prospects that mission currently planned for launch in the early 2007 time frame.

Description: The NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Observatory made an overpass during the Central Oklahoma tornado outbreak at approximately 04:00 LTC on 4 May, 1999 (23:00 CDT on 3 May). At the time of the TRMM snapshot there were 25 individual storms in Oklahoma that could be identified and cross-correlated between the TRMM measurements and the Twin Lakes (KTLX) NEXRAD radar. Of these, six were significant supercells that could be trended for 30-min prior and subsequent to (1 hr total) the TRMM overpass. Thus, we are able to provide a context for the TRMM snapshot with respect to each individual supercell's recent growth, decay, and severe weather producing history. The most vigorous and electrically active storm at the time of the overpass is the Stroud, OK supercell whose F3 tornado ended only about 10 minutes earlier. Another F3 tornado north of Crescent, OK (- 150 km west of Stroud) is on the ground and a supercell with a developing, yet still weak mesocyclone is just south of the Stroud storm. This latter storm produces an F1 tornado an hour later near Sapulpa, OK. The objective of this study is to provide additional insight into the characteristics of the supercell storms through the unique capabilities and vantagepoint of the TRMM science instruments.

Description: This study compares the lightning locations reported by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) with the lightning locations determined by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). The NLDN system identifies the rf signature of cloud-to-ground lightning. The LIS data is the top level of a hierarchy of optical data objects. The centroid and timing of each LIS lightning activity center are compared with each flash in a subset of the NLDN long range lightning location data in a portion of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea consisting of those locations more than 625 km from any sensor. This subset is produced by analyzing each reported NLDN location to determine if that location is within the LIS field of view at the time of the reported flash. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM) orbit limits the cross-sensor comparison to tropical and sub-tropical regions. Because the rf-detection system depends on ionospheric propagation conditions, a separate analysis was made for daylight conditions at both source and sensor as well as nighttime at both places. A full year of data is compared to provide an adequate sample of each data set. Confirmation of lightning in the general location of the NLDN report is established when LIS detected one or more centers of lightning activity within a 2 degree radius from the NLDN location.

Description: During the wet season TRMM field campaign in Rondonia, Brazil, a variety of convective systems were sampled by radar, sounding, and geostationary satellite for a 60 day period in early 1999. Local variations in the local wind and humidity field have been attributed in part by this study to synoptic scale phenomena, most conspicuously the establishment of stationary frontal systems penetrating into the tropics. These baroclinic systems induced periodic episodes low level moist, westerly flow across Rondonia during the experiment. This flow feature may be an important component of the South American climate system by playing a role in maintaining the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, which was active during these local westerly wind events. It is therefore important to understand the differences in mesoscale properties of convective systems between the westerly wind periods and intervening easterly wind periods. Differences in shear and moisture characteristics (Halverson et al. 2000, this meeting) are compared to structural and life-cycle characteristics of convective systems in Rondonia. Data from ground based radar and geostationary satellite provide a view of the evolution of the vertical structure and horizontal morphology of several large mesoscale convective systems in each regime. Preliminary statistics on the diurnal variation of precipitation intensity, areal coverage, and cloud top area are presented. Results suggest that long-lived, shallow convective systems with a large stratiform component of precipitation are characteristic of the westerly wind periods. A goal of this study is to establish a basis for which to parameterize the mesoscale effects of convection on large scale features of the South American climate system.

Description: The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Sferic Array has recorded electric-field-change waveforms simultaneously at several stations surrounding the ground-strike points of numerous return strokes in cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. Such data are available from the five-station sub-networks in both Florida and New Mexico. With these data it has been possible for the first time to compare the waveforms radiated in different directions by a given stroke. Such comparisons are of interest to assess both the effects of channel geometry on the fine structure of subsequent-stroke radiation fields and the role of branches in the more jagged appearance of first-stroke waveforms. This paper presents multiple-station, time-domain waveforms with a 200 Hz to 500 kHz pass-band from both first and subsequent return strokes at ranges generally between 100 and 200 km. The differences among waveforms of the same stroke received at stations in different directions from the lightning channel are often obvious. These differences are illustrated and interpreted in the context of channel tortuosity and branches.

Description: An autonomous, low-power atmospheric lidar instrument is being developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This compact, portable lidar will operate continuously in a temperature controlled enclosure, charge its own batteries through a combination of a small rugged wind generator and solar panels, and transmit its data from remote locations to ground stations via satellite. A network of these instruments will be established by co-locating them at remote Automatic Weather Station (AWS) sites in Antarctica under the auspices of the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF Office of Polar Programs provides support to place the weather stations in remote areas of Antarctica in support of meteorological research and operations. The AWS meteorological data will directly benefit the analysis of the lidar data while a network of ground based atmospheric lidar will provide knowledge regarding the temporal evolution and spatial extent of Type la polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). These clouds play a crucial role in the annual austral springtime destruction of stratospheric ozone over Antarctica, i.e. the ozone hole. In addition, the lidar will monitor and record the general atmospheric conditions (transmission and backscatter) of the overlying atmosphere which will benefit the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Prototype lidar instruments have been deployed to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (1995-96, 2000) and to an Automated Geophysical Observatory site (AGO 1) in January 1999. We report on data acquired with these instruments, instrument performance, and anticipated performance of the AWS Lidar.

Description: Water vapor in the Earth's troposphere introduces an extra electrical path in the propagation of radio signals through the atmosphere. The distribution of water vapor is irregular and distorts the wavefronts of incoming radio waves, limiting the angular resolution that can be achieved with ground-based telescopes. The level of fluctuations depends both on the location of the site ,and on the prevailing atmospheric conditions. The ability to measure the fluctuations is therefore important when choosing a site for a new instrument, and for scheduling observations of existing telescopes. Existing phase monitors are radio interferometers that monitor monochromatic beacon tones from geostationary communications satellites at a frequency of about 12 GHz. They have a classical heterodyne design based on two satellite receiving antennas; each has a front-end for amplifying and down-converting the incoming signals using a local oscillator that is phase-locked to a common reference frequency. In addition to multiple phase-locked loops these instruments require expensive phase-stable cabling to reduce the effects of thermal drift. The new system uses two consumer 18" digital satellite TV dishes to monitor satellite TV broadcast signals over a bandwidth of 500 MHz (12.2 to 12.7 GHz). The novel design eliminates the need for phase-locked loops and thermally stable components, and uses a pair of Gilbert Cell multipliers to perform the broadband correlation. A phase monitor has been been built and deployed at the site of the Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association Millimeter Array in Northern California, and has been operating successfully since June 1998, measuring the difference in electrical path length for parallel lines of sight to the satellite separated by a baseline of 100 m. With a hardware cost of approximately $4000, it is much cheaper than previous instruments, and the low power requirements and high reliability make the system suitable for site testing in remote locations.

Description: Hurricane Bob (1991) is simulated using the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. The simulation is conducted for a 24-h period at 4-km resolution and for a 6-h period at 1.3-km resolution. The 4-km simulation is able to fairly realistically capture the intensity and structure of the storm. The 1.3-km simulation depicts very small-scale convective structures and produces a convective band outside of the eye wall that did not occur in the 4-km simulation. The 1.3-km results are used to characterize several kinematic and cloud microphysical structures in the storm. Characteristics of air parcels flowing into and rising within the eye wall will be examined through trajectory calculations.

Description: A large percentage of the world's population and their agrarian economy must endure the vagaries of the monsoons over the tropical oceans between Africa and the Philippines. We know very little about the oceanic responses to changes of the monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS), which is under the influence of the East Asian Monsoon System, and the Arabian Sea (AS), which is dominated by the Indian Monsoon System; oceanic observations are sparse in both regions. Data from spaceborne microwave scatterometers and radiometers have been used to estimate the two major atmospheric forcing, momentum flux and latent heat flux (LHF), which change with the monsoon winds. Spaceborne sensors also observed the surface signatures of the oceanic response: SST and sea level changes (SLC. Sufficient durations of these data have recently become available to allow the meaningful studies of the annual cycles and interannual anomalies. In SCS, the winter monsoon is strong and steady but the summer monsoon is weak and has large intraseasonal fluctuations. In AS, the summer monsoon is much stronger than the winter monsoon. Significant correlations between LHF and SST tendency, and between curl of wind stress and SLC are found in both oceans. In the north SCS, winds are strong and dry, LHF is high, and ocean cooling is also large in fall; LHF is low and the ocean warms up in spring. In AS, LHF and SST tendency have a semi annual period; LHF is high in summer when the wind is strong and in winter when the wind is dry. Along the coast of Oman, the strong summer southwest monsoon causes intense upwelling, low SST and LHF in summer; such wind-driven SST changes is not as obvious along the Vietnam coast because of the weaker summer monsoon. The negative correlation between curl of wind stress and SLC found in the central basins of both SCS and AS agrees with a simple Ekman pumping scenario. Cyclonic winds drive surface divergence and upwelling in the ocean; the rise of the thermocline causes lower sea levels. Anticyclonic winds cause higher SLC. The exceptions (positive correlations) are found in the coastal regions in the north and the south of SCS, off the west coast of India between 5N and 10N, and along the coast of Somalia.

Description: Rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. In addition to being a life-giving resource, rainfall processes also plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the global atmospheric circulation. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. It varies greatly in space and time. The rain-producing cloud systems may last several hours or days. Their dimensions range from 10 km to several hundred km. This makes it difficult to incorporate rainfall directly large-scale weather and climate models. Until the end of 1997, precipitation in the global tropics was not known to within a factor of two. Regarding "global warming", the various large-scale models differed among themselves in the predicted magnitude of the warming and in the expected regional effects of these temperature and moisture changes. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has yielded important interim results related to rainfall observations, data assimilation and model forecast skills when rainfall data is assimilated. This talk will summarize where the TRMM science team is with regards to answering some of these important scientific challenges, as well as discuss the future Global Precipitation Mission which will provide 3 hourly rainfall coverage and offers some unique collaborative potential for NOAA and NASA.

Description: Scaling laws relating storm electrical generator power (and hence lightning flash rate) to charge transport velocity and storm geometry were originally posed by Vonnegut (1963). These laws were later simplified to yield simple parameterizations for lightning based upon cloud top height, with separate parameterizations derived over land and ocean. It is demonstrated that the most recent ocean parameterization: (1) yields predictions of storm updraft velocity which appear inconsistent with observation, and (2) is formally inconsistent with the theory from which it purports to derive. Revised formulations consistent with Vonnegut's original framework are presented. These demonstrate that Vonnegut's theory is, to first order, consistent with observation. The implications of assuming that flash rate is set by the electrical generator power, rather than the electrical generator current, are examined. The two approaches yield significantly different predictions about the dependence of charge transfer per flash on storm dimensions, which should be empirically testable. The two approaches also differ significantly in their explanation of regional variability in lightning observations.

Description: This study presents new measurements of raindrop oscillations in laboratory and field conditions. A 2-D video disdrometer is used to detect the shape of oscillating raindrops. The studies that were conducted to examine the oscillatory behavior of drops reveal that there is a lack of observations of the large drop oscillations. Yet, these drops have significant importance on radar rain estimation. Therefore, the new laboratory study is particularly designed to expand our knowledge on oscillatory behavior of large raindrops. The preliminary laboratory tests indicate that the drops are less oblate than the equilibrium shapes. Regarding the field studies, a large sample of raindrops was collected in several tropical field campaigns. The raindrops are mostly distorted and canted due to the environmental wind. An algorithm that determines the drop orientation and canting angle is added to the current system. This would reveal one of the most comprehensive data set on the oscillating behavior of raindrops in natural rain. The role of the oscillating raindrops on polarimetric parameters and subsequent rain estimation will be added to the discussion.

Description: In the past, wind measurements from space using fan-beam antennas, such as Seasat Scatterometer (SASS-1), ERS-1 &2, and NASA scatterometer (NSCAT), required up to six large stick-like antennas and suffered a nadir gap of up to 400 km. In the near future, a spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system is to be used for the SeaWinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT (QSCAT) and on ADEOS-2 (SeaWinds). This scatterometer, though offering wind measurements in the nadir region, still suffers from degraded performance in the nadir and outer swath. The purpose of this paper is to present an advanced polarimetric spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system, which can significantly improve the wind performance across the entire swath. The polarimetric scatterometer simultaneously measures co-polarized backscatter and the polarimetric correlation of co- and cross-polarized radar returns from the ocean surface. The advantage over the conventional scatterometer system is that, while the co-polarization radar returns are even function of the wind direction, the polarimetric correlation is an odd function of wind direction due to the reflection symmetry of the wind roughened surface. Therefore, this polarimetric scatterometer system can provide additional, equivalent measurements at azimuth angle 45degree away from the corresponding co-polarization measurements. The combined co-polarization and correlation measurements enable good wind performance across the whole swath to be obtained. In this paper, we will first present the theoretical formulation of all of the key components required for designing a polarimetric scatterometer. Then, we show that good wind performance can be achieved by a slight improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio of the current QSCAT/SeaWinds design. We then present the predicated wind performance using computer simulation based on a model function for the co-polarized backscatter obtained from actual spaceborne scatterometer data and an estimated model function for the polarimetric correlation based on the asymmetry observed in backscatter data. Finally, we will show that, aside from ocean applications, this polarimetric scatterometer can also be used for ice and land applications.

Description: Global lightning activity is highly variable on many time scales. This variability is attributable to changes in the flash rate per thunderstorm, the number of thunderstorms, or a combination. The TRMM Mission offers lightning observations from the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) in space. Both are used to examine the response of these parameters to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales. On both time scales, the changes in the number of storms dominate the variations in total lightning activity. On the diurnal time scale, the mean flash rate appears to vary with cloud buoyancy, peaking in early afternoon and declining in late afternoon, but the contribution of number of thunderstorms is 2-3 times greater that the mean storm flash rate. On the annual time scale, almost all of the total lightning response is due to changes in the number of storms, with a negligible contribution from flash rate. Evidence is presented that the LIS/OTD 'area' is a meaningful objective identifier for a thunderstorm.

Description: We compare aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) measurements derived from ground and airborne lidars and Sun photometers during TARFOX (Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment). Such comparisons are important to verify the consistency between various remote sensing measurements before employing them in any assessment of the impact of aerosols on the global radiation balance. Total scattering ratio and extinction profiles measured by the ground-based NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) system, which operated from Wallops Island, Virginia (37.86 deg N, 75.51 deg W), are compared with those measured by the Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) airborne lidar system aboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Bias and rms differences indicate that these measurements generally agreed within about 10%. Aerosol extinction profiles and estimates of AOT are derived from both lidar measurements using a value for the aerosol extinction/backscattering ratio S(sub a)=60 sr for the aerosol extinction/backscattering ratio, which was determined from the Raman lidar measurements.

Description: Traditionally, large-scale water vapor transport [div Q] has been derived directly from circulation statistics in which transport processes are often depicted by mean and eddy motions. Thus detailed and accurate calculations of moisture transport terms over the globe are required. Notably, the lack of systematically spaced conventional measurements of meteorological variables over oceans has hindered understanding of the distribution and transport of water vapor. This motivates the use of indirect calculation methods in which horizontal divergence of water vapor is balanced by the evaporation minus precipitation, assuming the rate of changes of precipitable water and condensates is small over a sufficiently long time period. In order to obtain the water vapor transport, we need evaporation rate minus precipitation (E-P). Focussing on the differences in water vapor transport between El Nino and La Nina periods and their influences on atmospheric circulations, we study January, February, and March of 1998 and 1999 periods which represent El Nino and La Nina respectively. SSM/I-derived precipitation and evaporation rate from SSM/I wind and total precipitable water, in conjunction with NCEP SST and surface air temperature, are used for the calculation of the transport potential function. For the retrieval of evaporation we use a stability-dependent aerodynamic bulk scheme developed by Chou (1993). It was tested against aircraft covariance fluxes measured during cold air outbreaks over the North Atlantic Ocean. Chou et al. (1997) reported that the SSM/I retrieved latent heat flux over the western Pacific warm pool area were found to be comparable with daily mean fluxes of a ship measurements during TOGA/COARE.

Description: A Sun photometer (18 channels between 300 and 1024 nm) has been used for measuring the columnar content of atmospheric water vapor (CWV) by solar transmittance measurements in absorption bands with channels centered at 719, 817, and 946 nm. The observable is the band-weighted transmittance function defined by the spectral absorption of water vapor and the spectral features of solar irradiance and system response. The transmittance function is approximated by a three-parameter model. Its parameters are determined from MODTRAN and LBLRTM simulations or empirical approaches using CWV data of a dual-channel microwave radiometer (MWR) or a Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS). Data acquired over a 2-year period during 1996-1998 at two different sites in Switzerland, Bern (560 m above sea level (asl)) and Jungfraujoch (3580 m asl) were compared to MWR, radiosonde (RS), and FTS retrievals. At the low-altitude station with an average CWV amount of 15 mm the LBLRTM approach (based on recently corrected line intensities) leads to negligible biases at 719 and 946 nm if compared to an average of MWR, RS, and GPS retrievals. However, at 817 nm an overestimate of 2.7 to 4.3 mm (18-29%) remains. At the high-altitude station with an average CWV amount of 1.4 mm the LBLRTM approaches overestimate the CWV by 1.0, 1.4. and 0.1 mm (58, 76, and 3%) at 719, 817, and 946 nm, compared to the ITS instrument. At the low-altitude station, CWV estimates, based on empirical approaches, agree with the MWR within 0.4 mm (2.5% of the mean); at the high-altitude site with a factor of 10 less water vapor the agreement of the sun photometers (SPM) with the ITS is 0.0 to 0.2 mm (1 to 9% of the mean CWV there). Sensitivity analyses show that for the conditions met at the two stations with CWV ranging from 0.2 to 30 mm, the retrieval errors are smallest if the 946 nm channel is used.

Description: Estimates from TRMM satellite data of monthly total rainfall over an area are subject to substantial sampling errors due to the limited number of visits to the area by the satellite during the month. Quantitative comparisons of TRMM averages with data collected by other satellites and by ground-based systems require some estimate of the size of this sampling error. A method of estimating this sampling error based on the actual statistics of the TRMM observations and on some modeling work has been developed. "Sampling error" in TRMM monthly averages is defined here relative to the monthly total a hypothetical satellite permanently stationed above the area would have reported. "Sampling error" therefore includes contributions from the random and systematic errors introduced by the satellite remote sensing system. As part of our long-term goal of providing error estimates for each grid point accessible to the TRMM instruments, sampling error estimates for TRMM based on rain retrievals from TRMM microwave (TMI) data are compared for different times of the year and different oceanic areas (to minimize changes in the statistics due to algorithmic differences over land and ocean). Changes in sampling error estimates due to changes in rain statistics due 1) to evolution of the official algorithms used to process the data, and 2) differences from other remote sensing systems such as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), are analyzed.

Description: Solar energy fluxes reaching the surface and absorbed by it are basic components of the energy balance of the Arctic. They depend mainly on the solar zenith angle, a state of the atmosphere, especially the cloudiness, and the surface albedo. However, they can also be modified by variabilities in the surface albedo and cloud optical thickness. The surface of the Arctic can be highly nonuniform. The surface of the Arctic Ocean, which covers the huge part of the Arctic can be view as a mosaic of sea water, sea ice, snow and, in the melting period, melting ponds. In our paper, results are presented of Monte Carlo simulations of the expected influence of nonuniform cloud structure and nonuniform surface albedo on radiative fluxes at the Arctic surface. In particular, the plane parallel biases in the surface absorptance and atmospheric transmittance are studied. The bias is defined as the difference between the real absorptance or transmittance (i.e. nonuniform conditions) averaged over a given area, and the uniform or plane parallel case with the same mean cloud optical thickness and the same mean surface albedo. The dependence of the biases is analysed with respect to the following: domain averaged values of the cloud optical thickness and surface albedo, scales of their spatial variabilities, correlation between cloud optical thickness and cloud albedo variabilities, cloud height, and the solar zenith angle. Ranges of means and standard deviations of the input parameters typical of Arctic conditions are obtained from the SHEBA experiment.

Description: We present a method to calculate vertical profiles of particle size distributions in condensation clouds of giant planets and brown dwarfs. The method assumes a balance between turbulent diffusion and precipitation in horizontally uniform cloud decks. Calculations for the Jovian ammonia cloud are compared with previous methods. An adjustable parameter describing the efficiency of precipitation allows the new model to span the range of predictions from previous models. Calculations for the Jovian ammonia cloud are found to be consistent with observational constraints. Example calculations are provided for water, silicate, and iron clouds on brown dwarfs and on a cool extrasolar giant planet.

Description: Initial precipitation forecasts of the January 2000 blizzard were unable to adequately alert emergency response along the eastern seaboard. Cyclogenesis, over the Gulf of Mexico was a contributing cause of that problem. We present distributions of precipitation derived from spaceborne microwave measurements from the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) and the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) supplemented by NWS operational radar and the National lightning Detection Network (NLDN) Long-Range (LR) product. The combined NWS radar and NLDN-LR data revealed the location of precipitation between 1/23 and 1/27/2000 over the US, the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean. The remotely sensed precipitation distributions are compared to the precipitation inferred from coincident TMI observations.

Description: Intermittent measurements of precipitation and integrated water vapor (IWV) distributions were retrieved from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometers. Lightning generates very low frequency (VLF) radio noise pulses called sferics. Those pulses propagate over large distances so that they can be continuously monitored with a sparse network of ground based radio receivers. Sferics data, tuned with intermittent spaceborne microwave radiometer data, were used to generate estimated rainfall that was assimilated into a mesoscale weather prediction model. Both continuous latent heating adjustment and a variational technique are applied as assimilation procedures to evaluate the impact of lightning observations on the forecast of an intense winter squall line over the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivities to the assimilation of additional measurements such as IWV and sea surface temperature (SST), and measurement errors will also be discussed.

Description: A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Description: Recently, under the direction of GEWEX/GCIP there has been an attempt to link North American monsoon rainfall to precipitation in the Great Plains for the purposes of predictability on the seasonal time scale. Rain gauge analyses have been used to show continental-scale relationships. However, the interannual variability of warm season precipitation over the United States is linked to the east Pacific climate system. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite estimates of precipitation over oceans add a vital piece of information towards the goals of PACS and GCIP. This preliminary study will begin by focusing on the East Pacific sector. El-Nino-Southern Ossilation (ENSO) modulates the position and strength of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which affects the precipitation source for the Mexican monsoon. For example, the five driest summers in coastal Mexico occurred during the five strongest El Ninos (as determined by positive values of Nino 3.4) since 1979. Previous work has investigated lag-lead relationships between the North American monsoon and continental rainfall. GPCP has the potential to extend these relationships to a global scale. Finally data sets with a finer time and space scale, including Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) products, will be used to examine wave dynamics. Kelvin waves, in particular, may be trigger mechanisms for the onset of the North American monsoon.

Description: The sea surface directional wave spectrum was measured for the first time in all quadrants of a hurricane in open water using the NASA airborne scanning radar altimeter (SRA) carried aboard one of the NOAA WP-3D hurricane hunter aircraft at 1.5 km height. The SRA measures the energetic portion of the directional wave spectrum by generating a topographic map of the sea surface. At 8 Hz, the SRA sweeps a radar beam of 1' half-power width (two-way) across the aircraft ground track over a swath equal to 0.8 of the aircraft height, simultaneously measuring the backscattered power at its 36 GHz (8.3 mm) operating frequency and the range to the sea surface at 64 positions. These slant ranges are multiplied by the cosine of the off-nadir angles to determine the vertical distances from the aircraft to the sea surface. Subtracting these distances from the aircraft height produces the sea surface elevation map. The sea surface topography is interpolated to a uniform grid, transformed by a two dimensional FFT, and Doppler corrected. The open-ocean data were acquired on 24 August 1998 when hurricane Bonnie was east of the Bahamas and moving toward 330 deg at about 5 m/s. Individual waves up to 18 m height were observed and the spatial variation of the wave field was dramatic. The dominant waves generally propagated at significant angles to the downwind direction. At some positions there were three different wave fields of comparable energy crossing each other. The NOAA aircraft spent over five hours within 180 km of the eye, and made five eye penetrations. On 26 August 1998, the NOAA aircraft flew at 2.2 km height when hurricane Bonnie was making landfall near Wilmington, NC, documenting the directional wave spectrum in the region between Charleston, SC and Cape Hatteras, NC. The aircraft flight lines included segments near and along the shoreline as well as far offshore. Animations of the directional wave spectrum spatial variation along the aircraft tracks on the two flights will be presented using a 100: 1 time compression.

Description: Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.

Description: The Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) was deployed in four major tropical field programs in 1998-1999; the Texas-Florida Underflights (TEFLUN), the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission-Land Biosphere Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) Experiment, and the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). Each experiment concentrated on a distinct tropical climate regime and/or phenomena. AMPR sampled passive microwave radiation at approximately 10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz from the NASA ER-2 (TEFLUN, CAMEX-3, TRMM-LBA) and the NASA DC-8 (KWAJEX) research aircraft. Presented will be the microwave brightness temperature signatures for each of these climate regimes. Results will be discussed and suggested avenues of research and development explored. Also, brightness temperature and precipitation comparisons with coincident data from the TRMM TMI and DMSP SSM/I(s) will be made where applicable and available.

Description: The cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase 1 of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (-40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second, respectively. Five models are participating in the project. These models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins. Simulations are made including both homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze drops) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found amongst the models for the homogeneous-nucleation-only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, non-negligible quantitative differences are found. Systematic bias exists between results of a model based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies. This information is necessary, but not sufficient, to construct consistent formulae for the two approaches. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size-dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice nucleation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of ice number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, partially controls the peak nucleation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period.

Description: Global rainfall is the primary distributor of latent heat through atmospheric circulation. The recently launched Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite is dedicated to advance our understanding of tropical precipitation patterns and their implications on global climate and its change. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the satellite is the first radar ever flown in space and has provided. exciting, new data on the 3-D rain structures for a variety of scientific uses. However, due to the limited mission lifetime and the dynamical nature of precipitation, the TRMM PR data acquired cannot address all the issues associated with precipitation, its related processes, and the long-term climate variability. In fact, a number of new post-TRMM mission concepts have emerged in response to the recent NASA's request for new ideas on Earth science missions at the post 2002 era. This paper will discuss the system concepts for two advanced, spaceborne rainfall profiling radars. In the first portion of this paper, we will present a system concept for a second-generation spaceborne precipitation radar for operations at the Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The key PR-2 electronics system will possess the following capabilities: (1) A 13.6/35 GHz dual frequency radar electronics that has Doppler and dual-polarization capabilities. (2) A large but light weight, dual-frequency, wide-swath scanning, deployable antenna. (3) Digital chirp generation and the corresponding on-board pulse compression scheme. This will allow a significant improvement on rain signal detection without using the traditional, high-peak-power transmitters and without sacrificing the range resolution. (4) Radar electronics and algorithm to adaptively scan the antenna so that more time can be spent to observe rain rather than clear air. and (5) Built-in flexibility on the radar parameters and timing control such that the same radar can be used by different future rain missions. This will help to reduce the overall instrument development costs. In the second portion of this paper, we will present a system concept for a geostationary rainfall monitoring radar for operations at the geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). In particular, the science requirements, the observational strategy, the instrument design, and the required technologies will be discussed.

Description: A simple linear algebraic solution is introduced for retrieving the location and time-of-occurrence of lightning ground strikes on a spherical Earth from a network of four or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors. Since the solution accounts for Earth curvature, it represents an extension to earlier planar model results described by Koshak et al. A test of the retrieval method is provided using computer-simulated data sets. The method is easy to comprehend and completely avoids reference to the mathematics of spherical hyperbolas such as discussed by Lewis. A quasi-analytic extension to the spherical Earth solution is provided for an oblate spheroidal Earth geometry, and the importance/relevance of oblate effects are discussed. Future application of these methods in support of the North American National Lightning Detection Network (NALDN) described by Cummins et al. is desirable, but additional theoretical investigations are required to incorporate magnetic bearing information into the present solution process.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Ground Validation (GV) rain products are generated from ground-based radar observations using a bulk adjusted FACE radar reflectivity (Ze) - rain rate (R) relationship. Monthly Ze-R relationships are obtained by extracting the Ze data with a horizontal resolution of 2 km from an altitude of 1.5 km (from Constant Altitude PPIS, CAPPIS) over the locations of the gauges. The gauge and radar data are merged, and a quality control procedure is applied that eliminates poorly correlated gauge-radar data. Bulk adjusted Ze-R relations are then derived from this quality-controlled merged data base. These Z-R relations are applied to the base scan reflectivity to produce rain maps. The present study examines the effect of these different planes on the total accumulations from the radar and the associated effect on the bulk adjustment coefficient. In order to evaluate the credibility of these GV products, the effect of the different planes involved in the bulk adjustment method will be discussed, The gauge data will also be used to assess the impact of missing radar data (i.e., data gaps) upon the monthly radar-derived rainfall estimates. Experiments were also performed varying both the area of the radar data extracted over the gauges and the use of different weighting coefficients. Preliminary results from these sensitivity tests indicate improved agreement and consistency between the gauge and radar data.

Description: Ten-year moving averages of the seasonal rates for "named storms," tropical storms, hurricanes, and major (or intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin reveal that the present epoch is one of enhanced activity (i.e., having seasonal rates typically equal to or above respective long-term median rates). For example, the 10-year moving average of the seasonal rates for named storms is now higher than for any previous year over the past 50 years, measuring 10.65 in 1994, or 2.65 units higher than its median rate of 8. For tropical storms, its 10-year moving average has more than doubled over the past 50 years, from 2.15 in 1955 to 4.60 in 1992, with 16 of the past 20 years having a seasonal rate of 3 or more (the median rate). For hurricanes and major hurricanes, their 10-year moving averages turned upward, rising above long-term median rates (5.5 and 2, respectively) in 1992, following a 25-year lull in activity. Taken together, the outlook for this year and immediately succeeding years is for all categories of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones to have seasonal rates at levels equal to or above their long-term median rates, especially during non-El Nino-related seasons. Only during El Nino-related seasons does it appear that seasonal rates might be slightly diminished.

Description: Spaceborne scatterometers are active microwave radar instruments designed to acquire near-simultaneous, spatially collocated measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section (sigma0) of the global surface from several azimuth and/or incidence angles. The primary objective of the scatterometer mission is to measure the near-surface wind speed and direction over the global ocean using sigma0 measurements together with a wind geophysical model function. However, since sigma0 measurements are collected globally all the time, sigma0 data can also be used for global land and ice applications. In this paper, we will first present the objectives of the QSCAT mission, the instrument design, and the unique features of the Ku-band scatterometer currently in operation, called SeaWinds on QuikSCAT (QSCAT). We will then present some emerging land and ocean applications of the QSCAT data, which include (1) global snow detection and monitoring, (2) melt region mapping on the Greenland ice sheet, (3) Monsoon flood detection and monitoring, (4) soil wetness application at large scale, and (5) hurricane monitoring and tracking.

Description: This paper studies the performance of a spaceborne precipitation radar in measuring vertical Doppler velocity of rainfall. As far as a downward pointing precipitation radar is concerned, one of the major problems affecting Doppler measurement at the nadir direction arises from the Non-Uniform Beam-Filling effect (NUBF). That is, when significant variation in rain rate is present within the radar IFOV (Instrument Field of View) in the along track direction. the Doppler shift caused by the radial component of the horizontal speed of the satellite is weighted differently among the portions of IFOV. The effects of this non-uniform weighting may dominate any other contribution. Under this condition, shape, average value and width of the Doppler spectrum may not be directly correlated with the vertical velocity of the precipitating particles. However, by using an inversion technique which over-samples the radar measurements in the along track direction, we show that the shift due to NUBF can be evaluated, and that the NUBF induced errors on average fall speed can be reduced.

Description: The microphysical parameterization of clouds and rain-cells plays a central role in atmospheric forward radiative transfer models used in calculating passive microwave brightness temperatures. The absorption and scattering properties of a hydrometeor-laden atmosphere are governed by particle phase, size distribution, aggregate density., shape, and dielectric constant. This study identifies the sensitivity of brightness temperatures with respect to the microphysical cloud parameterization. Cloud parameterizations for wideband (6-410 GHz observations of baseline brightness temperatures were studied for four evolutionary stages of an oceanic convective storm using a five-phase hydrometeor model in a planar-stratified scattering-based radiative transfer model. Five other microphysical cloud parameterizations were compared to the baseline calculations to evaluate brightness temperature sensitivity to gross changes in the hydrometeor size distributions and the ice-air-water ratios in the frozen or partly frozen phase. The comparison shows that, enlarging the rain drop size or adding water to the partly Frozen hydrometeor mix warms brightness temperatures by up to .55 K at 6 GHz. The cooling signature caused by ice scattering intensifies with increasing ice concentrations and at higher frequencies. An additional comparison to measured Convection and Moisture LA Experiment (CAMEX 3) brightness temperatures shows that in general all but, two parameterizations produce calculated T(sub B)'s that fall within the observed clear-air minima and maxima. The exceptions are for parameterizations that, enhance the scattering characteristics of frozen hydrometeors.

Description: A persistent, mesoscale region of intense eyewall convection contained within Hurricane Bonnie on 23 August 1998 is examined from multiple observations synthesized from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft. The intense convection occurred late in the day as Bonnie was attaining its minimum central pressure and during a stage when the inner core featured a markedly asymmetric structure. The main purpose of this paper is to describe the internal structure of a convective burst and its relationship to the warm core using a synthesis of high-resolution satellite, aircraft radar, and in situ data. An exceptionally vigorous eyewall tower penetrating to nearly 18 km is described. A second intense eyewall tower, adjacent to the eye, is shown to be associated with a mesoscale subsiding current of air that extends horizontally nearly 20 km into the eye interior. The subsidence occupies a substantial depth within the eye and appears to be a much larger scale feature than the convectively-induced, symmetric overturning which commonly occurs on the upper-level flanks of convective towers in other tropical environments.

Description: Ensemble sets of simulation experiments were conducted with a single column model (SCM) using the Goddard GEOS II GCM physics containing a recent version of the Cumulus Scheme (McRAS) and a biosphere based land-fluxes scheme (SSiB). The study used the 18 July to 5 August 1995 ARM-CART (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement-Cloud Atmospheric Radiation Test-bed) data, which was collected at the ARM-CART site in the mid-western United States and analyzed for single column modeling (SCM) studies. The new findings affirm the earlier findings that the vegetation, which increases the solar energy absorption at the surface together with soil and soil-moisture dependent processes, which modulate the surface, fluxes (particularly evapotranspiration) together help to increase the local rainfall. In addition, the results also show that for the particular study period roughly 50% of the increased evaporation over the ARM-CART site would be converted into rainfall with the Column, while the remainder would be advected out to the large-scale. Notwithstanding the limitations of only one-way interaction (i.e., the large-scale influencing the regional physics and not vice versa), the current SCM simulations show a very robust relationship. The evaporation-precipitation relationship turns out to be independent of the soil types, and soil moisture; however, it is weakly dependent on the vegetation cover because of its surface-albedo effect. Clearly, these inferences are prone to weaknesses of the SCM physics, the assumptions of the large-scale being unaffected by gridscale (SCM-scale) changes in moist processes, and other limitations of the evaluation procedures.

Description: The notion that the continental-scale land-sea contrast is the main reason that monsoon circulation exists has been a long-held belief. The purpose of this paper is to point out that this notion should be substantially modified. The central idea of this notion states that in summer, radiative heating of the continent, say Asia, gives rise to a continental-scale thermal low and surrounding the thermal low in its southeast direction the low level wind flows in from south-west. This low-level inflow creates a convergence of moisture, which maintains the cumulus convection. And in winter, radiative cooling of continent gives rise to a thermal high and to its southeast the low-level wind is from northeast. The mechanism in this interpretation does undoubtedly exist. However, this mechanism, though believed to be the main driving force of monsoon, has not been tested in numerical experiments. There has been an increasing recognition in the recent years that monsoon is inextricably tied to the heating in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). We propose that the main cause of monsoon is ITCZ's being substantially away from the equator. A brief qualitative explanation of why the ITCZ can be a source of monsoon circulation can be offered based on the circulation field forced by the ITCZ heating. The existence of the ITCZ's does not always have to rely on land-sea contrast on the continental scale. This is hinted in the fact that in February the ITCZ close to Australia (and its associated monsoon circulation) covers a longitudinal range several times as long as that of Australia and thus cannot possibly be caused mainly by the land-sea contrast associated with Australia. Yet, this cannot be used as a proof that the ITCZ in the Asian summer monsoon is not mainly due to land-sea contrast. One of the purposes of this work is to provide a convincing proof. In this work the role of land-sea contrast in the origin of monsoon is examined through numerical simulation with the Goddard general circulation model. The Asian and Australian monsoon circulations are obtained in a four-year integration and then the integration is repeated with Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia replaced by ocean. The sea surface temperature (SST) at each affected grid is specified as the SST at the first grid to the east that is an ocean grid in the first experiment. The latter integration shows that the monsoon circulation pattern over where south Asia and Australia were and the surrounding region has largely remained. The results discount land-sea contrast as the main cause of Asian monsoon. A third experiment is the same as the first except that the topography of Asia, the maritime continent, and Australia is reduced to zero. This experiment reveals that the difference between the first two experiments is due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. August precipitation is shown averaged over the last three years of each of the three experiments. They show that the Asian monsoon rainy region is largely intact in the second experiment and the difference between the second and the third experiment is mainly in the longitudinal location of the maximum precipitation. Additionally, in Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a modifying role. Although land-sea contrast plays only a modifying role in Asian and Australian (and Central American including Mexican) monsoons, it is the main reason that ITCZ (and thus monsoon) exists in Africa and South America. Thus, monsoons can be classified into two groups depending on whether land-sea contrast plays a major role.

Description: The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

Description: Global rainfall is the primary redistributor of earth's energy by the process of latent heat release. This forms the main driving force for the tropical circulation, which in turn impacts the global circulation .through transient events-such as El Nino. Hence, more precise and long-term time series of the rainfall and its variability is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the global climate and climate change. The Precipitation Radar (PR) abroad the US/Japan Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is the first radar ever launched into space that measures detailed vertical profiles of rain intensity over the tropics. One of the challenges in estimating rainfall from spaceborne radars is the presence of attenuation at frequencies, such as 14 GHz of the TRMM PR and future planned systems at this and higher frequencies. A common approach in current rainfall retrieval algorithms is to employed the path integrated attenuation (PIA) as a constraint to the retrieval, and hence overcome errors in the radar calibration or in the assumed rainfall parameters. PIA can either be derived from a radiometer or from the surface reference technique, in which a clear air radar measurement is compared with the measurement in the raining area. The current TRMM 2A21 PIA data product makes use of both a temporal and spatial clear air database for comparison to rainy measurements. In this paper we present results from analysis of TRMM surface backscatter cross-section (sigmaO) measurements from Nov 97-Feb99, and a comparison with sigmaO measurements obtained by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) between Sept96-June97. Measurements for a given month from both instruments are compiled on a 1 deg. (lat.) x 1 deg. (lon.) x 1 hr. grid. This enables TRMM--NSCAT comparison and the investigation of seasonal and diurnal trends in both data sets. From preliminary analysis of TRMM sigmaO's we have decided not to treat the ocean as a single homogeneous region but to select a number of ocean sub-regions and individually analyze their trends. Likewise, and in a similar approach to previous studies of Seasat over-land data, we have selected a number of over-land regions for study. From said sigmaO maps and regional trend analysis we investigate possible sources of trends and variability. In addition, we study the effects of TRMM PR sensitivity through the PR "possible rain" class. Given NSCAT's inability to flag rain contaminated measurements we are able to gauge the impact of rain contamination on NSCAT monthly sigmaO maps, using TRMM measurements. The research described in this paper was carried out by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S.A.

Description: The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft collected remote sensing and in situ data sets from Hurricane Bonnie (23, 24, and 26 August 1998) during the Convection And Moisture Experimental-3 (CAMEX-3). Bonnie was an exceptional case where NASA and NOAA had five aircraft sampling both upper levels and lower altitudes. The ER-2 was instrumented with the ER-2 Doppler XBand radar (EDOP) and several radiometers ranging from visible to lower frequency microwaves. EDOP is a fixed dual-beam radar (nadir and forward-looking beams) which allows computation of both vertical and alongtrack horizontal winds. The hurricane secondary circulation is typically difficult to measure at upper levels due to aircraft altitude limitations and sensitivity of the lower altitude airborne radars. EDOP is in principle, well suited to measure these components of the wind. When ER-2 flies across the approximate center of the hurricane circulation, the along-track winds derived from EDOP, are approximately equal to the hurricane radial flow comprising the secondary circulation. Assuming that the hydrometeor fallspeeds can be approximated, the radial and vertical wind components of the secondary circulation can be measured. Since the hydrometeor motions can be estimated with more confidence in the higher altitude ice regions (i.e., graupel and mixed phase are complicated at lower altitudes), the derived radial and vertical winds have higher accuracy at upper levels. On the other hand, the reflectivities are extremely low at higher altitudes, resulting in fewer Doppler velocity estimates.

Description: The development of a ground based direct detection Doppler lidar based on the recently described aerosol double edge technique is reported. A pulsed, injection seeded Nd:YAG laser operating at 1064 nm is used to make range resolved measurements of atmospheric winds in the free troposphere. The wind measurements are determined by measuring the Doppler shift of the laser signal backscattered from atmospheric aerosols. The lidar instrument and double edge method are described and initial tropospheric wind profile measurements are presented. Wind profiles are reported for both day and night operation. The measurements extend to altitudes as high as 14 km and are compared to rawinsonde wind profile data from Dulles airport in Virginia. Vertical resolution of the lidar measurements is 330 m and the rms precision of the measurements is a low as 0.6 m/s.

Description: The SeaWinds on QuikSCAT scatterometer was developed by NASA JPL to measure the speed and direction of ocean surface winds. Simulations performed to estimate the performance of the instrument prior to its launch have indicated that the mid-swath accuracy is worse than that of the rest of the swath. This behavior is a general characteristic of scanning pencil beam scatterometers. For SeaWinds, the accuracy of the rest of the swath, and the size of the swath are such that the instrument meets its science requirements despite mid-swath shortcomings. However, by understanding the problem at mid-swath, we can improve the performance there as well. We discuss the underlying causes of the problem in detail and propose a new wind retrieval algorithm which improves mid-swath performance. The directional discrimination ability of the instrument varies with cross track distance wind speed, and direction. By estimating the range of likely wind directions for each measurement cell, one can optimally apply information from neighboring cells where necessary in order to reduce random wind direction errors without significantly degrading the resolution of the resultant wind field. In this manner we are able to achieve mid-swath RMS wind direction errors as low as 15 degrees for low winds and 10 degrees for moderate to high winds, while at the same time preserving high resolution structures such as cyclones and fronts.

Description: High-resolution (approx. 40 km) along-track total column ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are compared with a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model analysis of an intense cyclone in the Midwestern United States. Total ozone increased by 100 DU (nearly 38%) as the TOMS instrument passed over the associated tropopause fold region. Complex structure is seen in the meteorological fields and compares well with the total ozone observations. Ozone data support the meteorological analysis showing that stratospheric descent was confined to levels above approx. 600 hPa; significant positive potential vorticity at lower levels is attributable to diabetic processes. Likewise, meteorological fields show that two pronounced ozone streamers extending north and northeastward into Canada at high levels are not bands of stratospheric air feeding into the cyclone; one is a channel of exhaust downstream from the system, and the other apparently previously connected the main cyclonic circulation to a southward intrusion of polar stratospheric air and advected eastward as the cut-off cyclone evolved. Good agreement between small-scale features in the model output and total ozone data underscores the latter's potential usefulness in diagnosing upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric dynamics and kinematics.

Description: The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

Description: This research project is a joint effort of UMD/JCESS, NASA/GSFC, NOAA/PMEL and LDEO, with UMD/JCESS being the leader and LDEO being responsible for coupled modeling. Although the project as a whole is for three years, the LDEO part was terminated at the end of the second year because of a shift of focus. The detailed description of the whole project and the effort made at LDEO have been given in the two joint annual reports and the two annual reports from LDEO. Here we only provide a brief summary of what we have done here at LDEO and a list of publications that resulted partly from this project.

Description: The GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS, GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) is a community activity aiming to promote development of improved cloud parameterizations for application in the large-scale general circulation models (GCMs) used for climate research and for numerical weather prediction (Browning et al, 1994). The GCSS strategy is founded upon the use of cloud-system models (CSMs). These are "process" models with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to represent individual cloud elements, but spanning a wide range of space and time scales to enable statistical analysis of simulated cloud systems. GCSS also employs single-column versions of the parametric cloud models (SCMs) used in GCMs. GCSS has working groups on boundary-layer clouds, cirrus clouds, extratropical layer cloud systems, precipitating deep convective cloud systems, and polar clouds.

Description: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed site central facility near Lamont, Oklahoma, offers unique operational water vapor profiling capabilities, including active and passive remote sensors as well as traditional in situ radiosonde measurements. Remote sensing technologies include an automated Raman lidar and an automated Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are able to retrieve water vapor profiles operationally through the lower troposphere throughout the diurnal cycle. Comparisons of these two water vapor remote sensing methods to each other and to radiosondes over an 8-month period are presented and discussed, highlighting the accuracy and limitations of each method. Additionally, the AERI is able to retrieve profiles of temperature while the Raman lidar is able to retrieve aerosol extinction profiles operationally. These data, coupled with hourly wind profiles from a 915-MHz wind profiler, provide complete specification of the state of the atmosphere in noncloudy skies. Several case studies illustrate the utility of these high temporal resolution measurements in the characterization of mesoscale features within a 3-day time period in which passage of a dryline, warm air advection, and cold front occurred.