ALBERT

Description: The sampling capability of Tenax-TA tubes, used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's solid sorbent air sampler to trap and concentrate contaminants from air aboard spacecraft, was improved by incorporating two sorbents within the tubes. Existing tubes containing only Tenax-TA allowed highly volatile compounds to "break through" during collection of a 1.5 L air sample. First the carbon molecular sieve-type sorbents Carboxen 569 and Carbosieve S-III were tested for their ability to quantitatively trap the highly volatile compounds. Breakthrough volumes were determined with the direct method, whereby low ppm levels of methanol or Freon 12 in nitrogen were flowed through the sorbent tubes at 30 mL/min, and breakthrough was detected by gas chromatography. Breakthrough volumes for methanol were about 9 L/g on Carboxen 569 and 11 L/g on Carbosieve S-III; breakthrough volumes for Freon 12 were about 7 L/g on Carboxen 569 and 〉 26 L/g on Carbosieve S-III. Next, dual-bed tubes containing either Tenax-TA/Carbosieve S-III, Tenax-TA/Carboxen 569, or Carbotrap/Carboxen 569 to a 10-component gas mixture were exposed, in dry and in humidified air (50% relative humidity), and percentage recoveries of each compound were determined. The Tenax-TA/Carboxen 569 combination gave the best overall recoveries (75-114% for the 10 compounds). Acetaldehyde had the lowest recovery (75%) of the 10 compounds, but this value was still an improvement over either the other two sorbent combinations or the original single-sorbent tubes.

Description: Various aspects of the Continuous Observations of the Rotation of the Earth (CORE) program are presented, including the science goals, validation strategy, and evolutionary plan.

Description: We have completed a new generation of water vapor radiometers (WVR), the A- series, in order to support radio science experiments with the Cassini spacecraft. These new instruments sense three frequencies in the vicinity of the 22 GHz emission line of atmospheric water vapor within a 1 degree beamwidth from a clear aperture antenna that is co-pointed with the radio telescope down to 10 degree elevation. The radiometer electronics features almost an order of magnitude improvement in temperature stability compared with earlier WVR designs. For many radio science experiments, the error budget is likely to be dominated by path delay fluctuations due to variable atmospheric water vapor along the line-of-sight to the spacecraft. In order to demonstrate the performance of these new WVRs we are attempting to calibrate the delay fluctuations as seen by a radio interferometer operating over a 21 km baseline with a WVR near each antenna. The characteristics of these new WVRs will be described and the results of our preliminary analysis will be presented indicating an accuracy of 0.2 to 0.5 mm in tracking path delay fluctuations over time scales of 10 to 10,000 seconds.

Description: The main focus of this research is the retrieval of tropospheric aerosol information using a Multi-filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer, Model MFR-7, placed on the roof of the Science Building at Medgar Evers College. This instrument makes precise measurements of atmospheric extinction of the direct solar beam simultaneously at six wavelengths (475, 500, 615, 670, 840 and 940 nm) at one minute intervals throughout the day. We are interested in measuring the changes in the optical depth of ambient aerosols, mass, effective particle size, aerosol size distribution, and chemical composition of ambient particulate matter in the Greater New York City Area. Results will be compared with data obtained by A. Lacis, B. Carlson and B. Cairns at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Description: Faculty in the Department of Physical, Environmental and Computer Sciences strongly believe in the concept that undergraduate research and research-related activities must be integrated into the fabric of our undergraduate Science and Technology curricula. High level skills, such as problem solving, reasoning, collaboration and the ability to engage in research, are learned for advanced study in graduate school or for competing for well paying positions in the scientific community. One goal of our academic programs is to have a pipeline of research activities from high school to four year college, to graduate school, based on the GISS Institute on Climate and Planets model.

Description: Science education is taking the teaching of science from a traditional (lecture) approach to a multidimensional sense-making approach which allows teachers to support students by providing exploratory experiences. Using projects is one way of providing students with opportunities to observe and participate in sense-making activity. We created a learning environment that fostered inquiry-based learning. Students were engaged in a variety of Inquiry activities that enabled them to work in cooperative planning teams where respect for each other was encouraged and their ability to grasp, transform and transfer information was enhanced. Summer, 1998: An air pollution workshop was conducted for high school students in the Medgar Evers College/Middle College High School Liberty Partnership Summer Program. Students learned the basics of meteorology: structure and composition of the atmosphere and the processes that cause weather. The highlight of this workshop was the building of hand-held sunphotometers, which measure the intensity of the sunlight striking the Earth. Summer, 1999: high school students conducted a research project which measured the mass and size of ambient particulates and enhanced our ability to observe through land based measurements changes in the optical depth of ambient aerosols over Brooklyn. Students used hand held Sunphotometers to collect data over a two week period and entered it into the NASA GISS database by way of the internet.

Description: Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

Description: Geological, geophysical, and geochemical data support a theory that Earth experienced several intervals of intense, global glaciation ("snowball Earth" conditions) during Precambrian time. This snowball model predicts that postglacial, greenhouse-induced warming would lead to the deposition of banded iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have drastically curtailed biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading to an oxygen spike in the euphotic zone and to the oxidative precipitation of iron and manganese. A Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth at 2.4 Giga-annum before present (Ga) immediately precedes the Kalahari Manganese Field in southern Africa, suggesting that this rapid and massive change in global climate was responsible for its deposition. As large quantities of O(2) are needed to precipitate this Mn, photosystem II and oxygen radical protection mechanisms must have evolved before 2.4 Ga. This geochemical event may have triggered a compensatory evolutionary branching in the Fe/Mn superoxide dismutase enzyme, providing a Paleoproterozoic calibration point for studies of molecular evolution.

Description: High-sensitivity detection of formaldehyde (CH2O) at 3.5315 micrometers (2831.64 cm-1) is reported with a diode-laser-pumped, fiber-coupled, periodically poled LiNbO3 spectroscopic source. This source replaced the Pb-salt diode laser Dewar assembly of an existing tunable diode-laser absorption spectrometer designed for ultrasensitive detection of CH2O. Spectra are recorded with 2f-modulation spectroscopy and zero-air rapid background subtraction. Initial measurements reported here, determined from multiple measurements of a flowing 7.7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv, parts in 10(9)) CH2O in air mixture, indicate replicate precisions as low as 0.24 ppbv.

Description: Biomass fires are both natural and anthropogenic in origin. The natural trigger is lightning, which leads to mid- and high-latitude fires and episodes of smoke and pollution associated with them. Lightning is also prominent in tropical regions when the dry season gives way to the wet season and lightning in convective systems ignites dry vegetation. Atmospheric consequences of biomass fires are complex. When considering the impacts of fires for a given ecosystem, inputs of fires must be compared to other process that emit trace gases and particles into the atmosphere. Other processes include industrial activity, fires for household purposes and biogenic sources which may themselves interact with fires. That is, fires may promote or restrict biogenic processes. Several books have presented various aspects of fire interactions with atmospheric chemistry and a cross-disciplinary review of a 1992 fire-oriented experiment appears in SAFARI: The Role of southern African Fires in Atmospheric and Ecological Environments. The IGAC/BIBEX core activity (see acronyms at end of Chapter) has sponsored field campaigns that integrate multiple aspects of fires ground-based measurements with an ecological perspective, atmospheric measurements with chemical and meteorological components, and remote sensing. This Chapter presents two aspects of biomass fires and the environment. Namely, the relationship between biomass burning and ozone is described, starting with a brief description of the chemical reactions involved and illustrative measurements and interpretation. Second, because of the need to observe biomass burning and its consequences globally, a summary of remote sensing approaches to the study of fires and trace gases is given. Examples in this Chapter are restricted to tropical burning for matters of brevity and because most burning activity globally is within this zone.

Description: In the Fall of 1997 the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program held an intensive observation period (IOP) to study atmospheric aerosols using in situ and remote sensing techniques at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site near Lamont, Oklahoma. As part of this experiment five automated, tracking sunphotometers were present to measure total column aerosol optical depth over the three-week period. which included many clear days or parts of days that were clear. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO 1993) has recommended a comparison of tracking sunphotometers to assess the ability of different instruments to arrive at similar aerosol optical depths. It was further recommended that the comparison be staged at a clean mountain site. In fact, this comparison has not occurred, but the comparison that we describe in this paper is representative of what contemporary instruments may accomplish in an environment more typical of sites where aerosols measurements will be required. The measurements were made over the period 15 September to 5 October 1997. The aerosol loading varied from extremely clean to moderately turbid conditions. In the next section the instruments will be described along with a brief explanation of the calibration techniques. The third section contains the results compared graphically on moderately turbid and fairly clean days and in a table representing the whole period. The paper ends with a section of discussion and a summary of the results.

Description: The Texas A&M monthly total oceanic rainfall retrieval algorithm is based on radiative transfer models and can only be modified on a physically sound basis. Within this constraint we have examined some improvements to the algorithm and it appears that it can be made significantly better. In particular, it appears that by proper use of the range of frequencies available on TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and AMSR that the need for the log-normal fit can be eliminated.

Description: We evaluated the performance of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) at-launch algorithm for monthly oceanic rain rate using two years (January 1998 - December 1999) of TMI data. The TMI at-launch algorithm is based on Wilheit et al.'s technique for estimating monthly oceanic rainfall that relies on histograms of multichannel microwave measurements. Comparisons with oceanic monthly rain rates derived from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-13 and F-14 Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data show the average rain rates over the TRMM region (between 400S and 40N) are 3.0, 2.85 and 2.89 mm/day, respectively for F-13, F-14 and TMI. Based on the latest version of TB data (version 5), both rainrate and freezing height derived from TMI are similar to those from the F-13 and F-14 SSM/I data. However, regionally the differences are statistically significant at the 95% confidence. Three hourly monthly rainrates are also computed from 3-hourly TB histograms to examine the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Over most of the oceanic TRMM area, a distinct early morning rainfall peak is found. A harmonic analysis shows that the amplitude of the 12h harmonic is significant and comparable to that of the 24h harmonic.

Description: A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Description: A one-week in situ intercomparison campaign was completed on the Rice University campus for measuring HCHO using three different techniques, including a novel optical sensor based on difference frequency generation (DFG) operating at room temperature. Two chemical derivatization methods, 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazine (DNPH) and o-(2,3,4,5,6-pentafluorobenzyl) hydroxylamine (PFBHA), were deployed during the daylight hours for three- to four-hour time-integrated samples. A real-time optical sensor based on laser absorption spectroscopy was operated simultaneously, including nighttime hours. This tunable spectroscopic source based on difference frequency mixing of two fiber-amplified diode lasers in periodically poled LiNb03 (PPLN) was operated at 3.5315 micrometers (2831.64 cm 1) to access a strong HCHO ro-vibrational transition free of interferences from other species. The results showed a bias of -1.7 and -1.2 ppbv and a gross error of 2.6 and 1.5 ppbv for DNPH and PFBHA measurements, respectively, compared with DFG measurements. These results validate the DFG sensor for time-resolved measurements of HCHO in urban areas.

Description: If you want to know whether you will need sunscreen or an umbrella for tomorrow's picnic, you can simply read the local weather report. However, if you are calculating the impact of gas combustion on global temperatures, or anticipating next year's rainfall levels to set water conservation policy, you must conduct a more comprehensive investigation. Such complex matters require long-range modeling techniques that predict broad trends in climate development rather than day-to-day details. Climate models are built from equations that calculate the progression of weather-related conditions over time. Based on the laws of physics, climate model equations have been developed to predict a number of environmental factors, for example: 1. Amount of solar radiation that hits the Earth. 2. Varying proportions of gases that make up the air. 3. Temperature at the Earth's surface. 4. Circulation of ocean and wind currents. 5. Development of cloud cover. Numerical modeling of the climate can improve our understanding of both the past and, the future. A model can confirm the accuracy of environmental measurements taken. in, the past and can even fill in gaps in those records. In addition, by quantifying the relationship between different aspects of climate, scientists can estimate how a future change in one aspect may alter the rest of the world. For example, could an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean somehow set off a drought on the other side of the world? A computer simulation could lead to an answer for this and other questions. Quantifying the chaotic, nonlinear activities that shape our climate is no easy matter. You cannot run these simulations on your desktop computer and expect results by the time you have finished checking your morning e-mail. Efficient and accurate climate modeling requires powerful computers that can process billions of mathematical calculations in a single second. The NCCS exists to provide this degree of vast computing capability.

Description: Submillimeter-wave cloud ice radiometry is an innovative technique for determining the amount of ice present in cirrus clouds, measuring median crystal size, and constraining crystal shape. The radiometer described in this poster is being developed to acquire data to validate radiometric retrievals of cloud ice at submillimeter wavelengths. The goal of this effort is to develop a technique to enable spaceborne characterization of cirrus, meeting key climate modeling and NASA measurement needs.

Description: A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria applicable to current and future aerospace vehicles. The paper provides estimates on the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating the probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents a summary of these results.

Description: The Environmental Program Office at the Kennedy Space Center is interested in finding solutions and to promote research and development (R&D) that could contribute to solve the problems of air, soil, and groundwater contamination. This study is undertaken as part of NASA's environmental stewardship program. The objective of this study involves the removal of nitrogen oxides from the flue gases of the boilers at KSC using hydrogen peroxide. Phase 1 of this study have shown the potential of this process to be used as an alternative to the current methods of treatment used in the power industry. This report summarizes the research done during the ten-week summer program. During this period, support has been given to implement the modifications suggested for Phase 2 of the project, which focus on oxidation reactions carried at lower temperatures using an ultraviolet source. The redesign and assembly of the modifications for the scrubbing system was the main objective of this research.

Description: The goals of this study are the evaluation of current fast radiative transfer models (RTMs) and line-by-line (LBL) models. The intercomparison focuses on the modeling of 11 representative sounding channels routinely used at numerical weather prediction centers: seven HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Sounder) and four AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) channels. Interest in this topic was evidenced by the participation of 24 scientists from 16 institutions. An ensemble of 42 diverse atmospheres was used and results compiled for 19 infrared models and 10 microwave models, including several LBL RTMs. For the first time, not only radiances, but also Jacobians (of temperature, water vapor, and ozone) were compared to various LBL models for many channels. In the infrared, LBL models typically agree to within 0.05-0.15 K (standard deviation) in terms of top-of-the-atmosphere brightness temperature (BT). Individual differences up to 0.5 K still exist, systematic in some channels, and linked to the type of atmosphere in others. The best fast models emulate LBL BTs to within 0.25 K, but no model achieves this desirable level of success for all channels. The ozone modeling is particularly challenging. In the microwave, fast models generally do quite well against the LBL model to which they were tuned. However significant differences were noted among LBL models. Extending the intercomparison to the Jacobians proved very useful in detecting subtle and more obvious modeling errors. In addition, total and single gas optical depths were calculated, which provided additional insight on the nature of differences. Recommendations for future intercomparisons are suggested.

Description: Nearly three years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM Satellite) monthly estimates of tropical surface rainfall are analyzed to document and understand the differences among the TRMM-based estimates and how these differences relate to the pre-TRMM estimates and current operational analyses. Variation among the TRMM estimates is shown to be considerably smaller than among a pre-TRMM collection of passive microwave-based products. Use of both passive and active microwave techniques in TRMM should lead to increased confidence in converged estimates. Current TRMM estimates are shown to have a range of about 20% for the tropical ocean as a whole, with variations in heavily raining ocean areas of the ITCZ and SPCZ having differences over 30%. In mid-latitude ocean areas the differences are smaller. Over land there is a distinct difference between the tropics and mid-latitude with a reversal between some of the products as to which tends to be relatively high or low. Comparisons of TRMM estimates with ocean atoll and land gauge information point to products that might have significant regional biases. The radar-based product is significantly low biased compared with atoll raingauge data, while the passive microwave product is significantly high compared to raingauge data in the deep tropics. The evolution of rainfall patterns during the recent change from intense El Nino to a long period of La Nina and then a gradual return to near neutral conditions is described using TRMM. The time history of integrated rainfall over the tropical oceans (and land) during this period differs among the passive and active microwave TRMM estimates.

Description: Observations made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite help us to show the significance of the 85 GHz polarization difference, PD85, measured by TMI. Rain type, convective or stratiform, deduced from the PR allows us to infer that PD85 is generally positive in stratiform rain clouds, while PD85 can be markedly negative in deep convective rain clouds. Furthermore, PD85 increases in a gross manner as stratiform rain rate increases. On the contrary, in a crude fashion PD85 decreases as convective rain rate increases. From the observations of TMI and PR, we find that PD85 is a weak indicator of rain rate. Utilizing information from existing polarimetric radar studies, we infer that negative values of PD85 are likely associated with vertically-oriented small oblate or wet hail that are found in deep convective updrafts.

Description: The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Description: Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.

Description: Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown onboard sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study, we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 K/decade during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result.

Description: A set of global, monthly rainfall products has been intercompared to understand the quality and utility of the estimates. The products include 25 observational (satellite-based), four model and two climatological products. The results of the intercomparison indicate a very large range (factor of two or three) of values when all products are considered. The range of values is reduced considerably when the set of observational products is limited to those considered quasi-standard. The model products do significantly poorer in the tropics, but are competitive with satellite-based fields in mid-latitudes over land. Over ocean, products are compared to frequency of precipitation from ship observations. The evaluation of the observational products point to merged data products (including rain gauge information) as providing the overall best results.

Description: Many chlorinated and brominated compounds that are inert in the troposphere are destroyed in the stratosphere and act as an in-situ source of stratospheric reactive chlorine and bromine. Other halogenated compounds that are reactive in the troposphere might contribute to the stratosphere's halogen budget in two ways. First, like their unreactive companions, rapid convective transport might carry them to the upper troposphere and make them available for subsequent advection by the mean circulation into the stratosphere before they are oxidized or photolyzed. Second, it is more likely that they are destroyed in the troposphere, and the chlorine and bromine that is released might then be transported to the stratosphere. We evaluate the relative influence of these processes on stratospheric bromine in a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model which simulates the distribution of bromoform (CHBr3). CHBr3 is parameterized as a short-lived, ocean-surface source gas whose destruction by photolysis and reaction with hydroxyl (OH) in the troposphere and stratosphere yields inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)). Many of the observed features of CHBr3 are simulated well, and comparisons with observations are used to show that the model represents aspects of transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that are critical to the evaluation. In particular, the model maintains the observed troposphere-stratosphere distinctness in transport pathways and reproduces the observed seasonal dependence of the mixture of air in the middle- and high-latitude lowermost stratosphere. We estimate that adding CHBr3 to models which already include the long-lived organic brominated compounds (halons and methyl bromide) will increase the simulated stratospheric mass of Br(sub y) by about 15 percent. In-situ stratospheric destruction of CHBr3 produces Br(sub y) in amounts which are comparable to that transported into the stratosphere after photolysis and oxidation of CHBr3 in the troposphere. In our simulations the mass of Br(sub y) produced from the destruction of CHBr3 does not exceed the mass of Br(sub y) produced from the destruction of the long-lived compounds at any level in the stratosphere. However, Br(sub y) from the loss of CHBr3 accounts for approximately one-third of the total Br(sub y) in the lowest kilometer of the stratosphere.

Description: In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Description: Observational and modeling studies have described the relationships between convective/stratiform rain proportion and the vertical distributions of vertical motion, latent heating, and moistening in mesoscale convective systems. Therefore, remote sensing techniques which can quantify the relative areal proportion of convective and stratiform, rainfall can provide useful information regarding the dynamic and thermodynamic processes in these systems. In the present study, two methods for deducing the convective/stratiform areal extent of precipitation from satellite passive microwave radiometer measurements are combined to yield an improved method. If sufficient microwave scattering by ice-phase precipitating hydrometeors is detected, the method relies mainly on the degree of polarization in oblique-view, 85.5 GHz radiances to estimate the area fraction of convective rain within the radiometer footprint. In situations where ice scattering is minimal, the method draws mostly on texture information in radiometer imagery at lower microwave frequencies to estimate the convective area fraction. Based upon observations of ten convective systems over ocean and nine systems over land, instantaneous 0.5 degree resolution estimates of convective area fraction from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TRMM TMI) are compared to nearly coincident estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR). The TMI convective area fraction estimates are slightly low-biased with respect to the PR, with TMI-PR correlations of 0.78 and 0.84 over ocean and land backgrounds, respectively. TMI monthly-average convective area percentages in the tropics and subtropics from February 1998 exhibit the greatest values along the ITCZ and in continental regions of the summer (southern) hemisphere. Although convective area percentages. from the TMI are systematically lower than those from the PR, monthly rain patterns derived from the TMI and PR rain algorithms are very similar. TMI rain depths are significantly higher than corresponding rain depths from the PR in the ITCZ, but are similar in magnitude elsewhere.

Description: We built a direct detection Doppler lidar based on the double-edge molecular technique and made the first molecular based wind measurements using the eyesafe 355 nm wavelength. Three etalon bandpasses are obtained with Step etalons on a single pair of etalon plates. Long-term frequency drift of the laser and the capacitively stabilized etalon is removed by locking the etalon to the laser frequency. We use a low angle design to avoid polarization effects. Wind measurements of 1 to 2 m/s accuracy are obtained to 10 km altitude with 5 mJ of laser energy, a 750s integration, and a 25 cm telescope. Good agreement is obtained between the lidar and rawinsonde measurements.

Description: A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for estimating tropospheric ozone profile information. All previous methods using satellite data were only capable of estimating the total column of ozone in the troposphere. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wavenumber 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to approx. 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and approx. 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Description: We use clear sky heating rates to show that convective outflow in the tropics decreases rapidly with height between the 350 K and 360 K potential temperature surfaces (or between roughly 13 and 15 km). There is also a rapid fall-off in the pseudoequivalent potential temperature probability distribution of near surface air parcels between 350 K and 360 K. This suggests that the vertical variation of convective outflow in the upper tropical troposphere is to a large degree determined by the distribution of sub cloud layer entropy.

Description: A symposium celebrating the first 50 years of Dr. Joanne Simpson's career took place at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center from December 1 - 3, 1999. This symposium consisted of presentations that focused on: historical and personal points of view concerning Dr. Simpson's research career, her interactions with the American Meteorological Society, and her leadership in TRMM; scientific interactions with Dr. Simpson that influenced personal research; research related to observations and modeling of clouds, cloud systems and hurricanes; and research related to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). There were a total of 36 presentations and 103 participants from the US, Japan and Australia. The specific presentations during the symposium are summarized in this paper.

Description: We present results of simulations of the distribution of 1809 keV radiation from the decay of Al-26 in the Galaxy. Recent observations of this emission line using the Gamma Ray Imaging Spectrometer (GRIS) have indicated that the bulk of the AL-26 must have a velocity of approx. 500 km/ s. We have previously shown that a velocity this large could be maintained over the 10(exp 6) year lifetime of the Al-26 if it is trapped in dust grains that are reaccelerated periodically in the ISM. Here we investigate whether a dust grain velocity of approx. 500 km/ s will produce a distribution of 1809 keV emission in latitude that is consistent with the narrow distribution seen by COMPTEL. We find that dust grain velocities in the range 275 - 1000 km/ s are able to reproduce the COMPTEL 1809 keV emission maps reconstructed using the Richardson-Lucy and Maximum Entropy image reconstruction methods while the emission map reconstructed using the Multiresolution Regularized Expectation Maximization algorithm is not well fit by any of our models. The Al-26 production rate that is needed to reproduce the observed 1809 keV intensity yields in a Galactic mass of Al-26 of approx. 1.5 - 2 solar mass which is in good agreement with both other observations and theoretical production rates.

Description: This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

Description: Using global rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) data for the past two decades (1979-1998), we have investigated the intrinsic modes of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and ENSO co-variability. Three recurring ASM rainfall-SST coupled modes were identified. The first is a basin scale mode that features SST and rainfall variability over the entire tropics (including the ASM region), identifiable with those occurring during El Nino or La Nina. This mode is further characterized by a pronounced biennial variation in ASM rainfall and SST associated with fluctuations of the anomalous Walker circulation that occur during El Nino/La Nina transitions. The second mode comprises mixed regional and basin-scale rainfall and SST signals, with pronounced intraseasonal and interannual variabilities. This mode features a SST pattern associated with a developing La Nina, with a pronounced low level anticyclone in the subtropics of the western Pacific off the coast of East Asia. The third mode depicts an east-west rainfall and SST dipole across the southern equatorial Indian Ocean, most likely stemming from coupled ocean-atmosphere processes within the ASM region. This mode also possesses a decadal time scale and a linear trend, which are not associated with El Nino/La Nina variability. Possible causes of year-to-year rainfall variability over the ASM and sub-regions have been evaluated from a reconstruction of the observed rainfall from singular eigenvectors of the coupled modes. It is found that while basin-scale SST can account for portions of ASM rainfall variability during ENSO events (up to 60% in 1998), regional processes can accounts up to 20-25% of the rainfall variability in typical non-ENSO years. Stronger monsoon-ENSO relationship tends to occur in the boreal summer immediately preceding a pronounced La Nina, i.e., 1998, 1988 and 1983. Based on these results, we discuss the possible impacts of the ASM on ENSO variability via the west Pacific anticyclone and articulate a hypothesis that anomalous wind forcings derived from the anticyclone may be instrumental in inducing a strong biennial modulation to natural ENSO cycles.

Description: In general, there are two broad scientific objectives when using cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) to study tropical convection. The first one is to use them as a physics resolving models to understand the dynamic and microphysical processes associated with the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The second approach is to use the CRMs to improve the representation of moist processes and their interaction with radiation in large-scale models. In order to improve the credibility of the CRMs and achieve the above goals, CRMs using identical initial conditions and large-scale influences need to produce very similar results. Two CRMs produced different statistical equilibrium (SE) states even though both used the same initial thermodynamic and wind conditions. Sensitivity tests to identify the major physical processes that determine the SE states for the different CRM simulations were performed. Their results indicated that atmospheric horizontal wind is treated quite differently in these two CRMs. The model that had stronger surface winds and consequently larger latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean produced a warmer and more humid modeled thermodynamic SE state. In addition, the domain mean thermodynamic state is more unstable for those experiments that produced a warmer and more humid SE state. Their simulated wet (warm and humid) SE states are thermally more stable in the lower troposphere (from the surface to 4-5 km in altitude). The large-scale horizontal advective effects on temperature and water vapor mixing ratio are needed when using CRMs to perform long-term integrations to study convective feedback under specified large-scale environments. In addition, it is suggested that the dry and cold SE state simulated was caused by enhanced precipitation but not enough surface evaporation. We find some problems with the interpretation of these three phenomena.

Description: The effectiveness of techniques for creating "bogus" vortices in numerical simulations of hurricanes is examined by using the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) and its adjoint system. A series of four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VAR) experiments is conducted to generate an initial vortex for Hurricane Georges (1998) in the Atlantic Ocean by assimilating bogus sea-level pressure and surface wind information into the mesoscale numerical model. Several different strategies are tested for improving the vortex representation. The initial vortices produced by the 4-D VAR technique are able to reproduce many of the structural features of mature hurricanes. The vortices also result in significant improvements to the hurricane forecasts in terms of both intensity and track. In particular, with assimilation of only bogus sea-level pressure information, the response in the wind field is contained largely within the divergent component, with strong convergence leading to strong upward motion near the center. Although the intensity of the initial vortex seems to be well represented, a dramatic spin down of the storm occurs within the first 6 h of the forecast. With assimilation of bogus surface wind data only, an expected dominance of the rotational component of the wind field is generated, but the minimum pressure is adjusted inadequately compared to the actual hurricane minimum pressure. Only when both the bogus surface pressure and wind information are assimilated together does the model produce a vortex that represents the actual intensity of the hurricane and results in significant improvements to forecasts of both hurricane intensity and track.

Description: This paper represents the first attempt to use TRMM rainfall information to estimate the four dimensional latent heating structure over the global tropics for February 1998. The mean latent heating profiles over six oceanic regions (TOGA COARE IFA, Central Pacific, S. Pacific Convergence Zone, East Pacific, Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean) and three continental regions (S. America, Central Africa and Australia) are estimated and studied. The heating profiles obtained from the results of diagnostic budget studies over a broad range of geographic locations are used to provide comparisons and indirect validation for the heating algorithm estimated heating profiles. Three different latent heating algorithms, the Goddard Convective-Stratiform (CSH) heating, the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) heating, and the Hydrometeor heating (HH) are used and their results are intercompared. The horizontal distribution or patterns of latent heat release from the three different heating retrieval methods are quite similar. They all can identify the areas of major convective activity (i.e., a well defined ITCZ in the Pacific, a distinct SPCZ) in the global tropics. The magnitude of their estimated latent heating release is also not in bad agreement with each other and with those determined from diagnostic budget studies. However, the major difference among these three heating retrieval algorithms is the altitude of the maximum heating level. The CSH algorithm estimated heating profiles only show one maximum heating level, and the level varies between convective activity from various geographic locations. These features are in good agreement with diagnostic budget studies. By contrast, two maximum heating levels were found using the GPROF heating and HH algorithms. The latent heating profiles estimated from all three methods can not show cooling between active convective events. We also examined the impact of different TMI (Multi-channel Passive Microwave Sensor) and PR (Precipitation Radar) rainfall information on latent heating structures.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island in the Bahamas during August - September, 1998 as a part of the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) which focussed on hurricane development and tracking. During the period August 21 - 24, hurricane Bonnie passed near Andros Island and influenced the water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements acquired by the SRL. Two drying signatures related to the hurricane were recorded by the SRL (Scanning Raman Lidar) and other sensors. Cirrus cloud optical depths (at 351 nm) were also measured during this period. Optical depth values ranged from approximately 0.01 to 1.4. The influence of multiple scattering on these optical depth measurements was studied with the conclusion that the measured values of optical depth are less than the actual value by up to 20% . The UV/IR cirrus cloud optical depth ratio was estimated based on a comparison of lidar and GOES measurements. Simple radiative transfer model calculations compared with GOES satellite brightness temperatures indicate that satellite radiances are significantly affected by the presence of cirrus clouds if IR optical depths are approximately 0.02 or greater. This has implications for satellite cirrus detection requirements.

Description: Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Description: Central Florida is the ideal test laboratory for studying convergence zone-induced convection. The region regularly experiences sea breeze fronts and rainfall-induced outflow boundaries. The focus of this study is the common yet poorly-studied convergence zone established by the interaction of the sea breeze front and an outflow boundary. Previous studies have investigated mechanisms primarily affecting storm initiation by such convergence zones. Few have focused on rainfall morphology yet these storms contribute a significant amount precipitation to the annual rainfall budget. Low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture have both been shown to correlate with rainfall amounts in Florida. Using 2D and 3D numerical simulations, the roles of low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture in rainfall evolution are examined. The results indicate that time-averaged, vertical moisture flux (VMF) at the sea breeze front/outflow convergence zone is directly and linearly proportional to initial condensation rates. This proportionality establishes a similar relationship between VMF and initial rainfall. Vertical moisture flux, which encompasses depth and magnitude of convergence, is better correlated to initial rainfall production than surface moisture convergence. This extends early observational studies which linked rainfall in Florida to surface moisture convergence. The amount and distribution of mid-tropospheric moisture determines how rainfall associated with secondary cells develop. Rainfall amount and efficiency varied significantly over an observable range of relative humidities in the 850- 500 mb layer even though rainfall evolution was similar during the initial or "first-cell" period. Rainfall variability was attributed to drier mid-tropospheric environments inhibiting secondary cell development through entrainment effects. Observationally, 850-500 mb moisture structure exhibits wider variability than lower level moisture, which is virtually always present in Florida. A likely consequence of the variability in 850-500 moisture is a stronger statistical correlation to rainfall, which observational studies have noted. The study indicates that vertical moisture flux forcing at convergence zones is critical in determining rainfall in the initial stage of development but plays a decreasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. The mid-tropospheric moisture (e.g. environment) plays an increasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. This suggests the need to improve measurements of magnitude/depth of convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture distribution. It also highlights the need for better parameterization of entrainment and vertical moisture distribution in larger-scale models.

Description: Chao's numerical and theoretical work on multiple quasi-equilibria of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the origin of monsoon onset is extended to solve two additional puzzles. One is the highly nonlinear dependence on latitude of the "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation, which makes the multiple quasi-equilibria of the ITCZ and monsoon onset possible. The other is the dramatic difference in such dependence when different cumulus parameterization schemes are used in a model. Such a difference can lead to a switch between a single ITCZ at the equator and a double ITCZ, when a different cumulus parameterization scheme is used. Sometimes one of the double ITCZ can diminish and only the other remain, but still this can mean different latitudinal locations for the single ITCZ. A single idea based on two off-equator attractors for the ITCZ, due to earth's rotation and symmetric with respect to the equator, and the dependence of the strength and size of these attractors on the cumulus parameterization scheme solves both puzzles. The origin of these rotational attractors, explained in Part I, is further discussed. The "force" acting on the ITCZ due to earth's rotation is the sum of the "forces" of the two attractors. Each attractor exerts on the ITCZ a "force" of simple shape in latitude; but the sum gives a shape highly varying in latitude. Also the strength and the domain of influence of each attractor vary, when change is made in the cumulus parameterization. This gives rise to the high sensitivity of the "force" shape to cumulus parameterization. Numerical results, of experiments using Goddard's GEOS general circulation model, supporting this idea are presented. It is also found that the model results are sensitive to changes outside of the cumulus parameterization. The significance of this study to El Nino forecast and to tropical forecast in general is discussed.

Description: A high-altitude aircraft flight on April 18, 1997 detected an enormous aerosol cloud at 20 km altitude near California (37 N). Not visually observed, the cloud had high concentrations of soot and sulfate aerosol, and was over 180 km in horizontal extent. The cloud was probably a large hydrocarbon fueled vehicle, most likely from rocket motors burning liquid oxygen and kerosene. One of two Russian Soyuz rockets could have produced the cloud: a launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan on April 6; or from Plesetsk, Russia on April 9. Parcel trajectories and long-lived trace gas concentrations suggest the Baikonur launch as the cloud source. Cloud trajectories do not trace the Soyuz plume from Asia to North America, illustrating the uncertainties of point-to-point trajectories. This cloud encounter is the only stratospheric measurement of a hydrocarbon fuel powered rocket.

Description: The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Description: The Terra mission, launched at the dawn of 1999, and Aqua mission to be launched soon, will possess innovative measurements of the aerosol daily spatial distribution, distinguish between dust, smoke and regional pollution and measure aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Their polar orbit gives daily global coverage, however measurements are acquired at specific time of the day. To what degree can present measurements from Terra taken between 10:00 and 11:30 AM local time, represent the daily average aerosol forcing of climate? Here we answer this question using 7 years of data from the distributed ground based 50-70 instrument Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) This (AERONET) half a million measurement data set shows that Terra aerosol measurements represent the daily average values within 5%. The excellent representation is found for large dust particles or small aerosol particles from Fires or regional pollution and for any range of the optical thickness, a measure of the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere.

Description: The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Description: The predictability of the 1997 and 1998 south Asian summer monsoon winds is examined from an ensemble of 10 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture, The simulations are started in September 1996 so that they have lost all memory of the atmospheric initial conditions for the periods of interest. The model simulations show that the 1998 monsoon is considerably more predictable than the 1997 monsoon. During May and June of 1998 the predictability of the low-level wind anomalies is largely associated with a local response to anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability increases late in the season (July and August) as a result of the strengthening of the anomalous Walker circulation and the associated development of easterly low level wind anomalies that extend westward across India and the Arabian Sea. During these months the model is also the most skillful with the observations showing a similar late-season westward extension of the easterly CD wind anomalies. The model shows little predictability or skill in the low level winds over southeast Asia during, 1997. Predictable wind anomalies do occur over the western Indian Ocean and Indonesia, however, over the Indian Ocean they are a response to SST anomalies that were wind driven and they show no skill. The reduced predictability in the low level winds during 1997 appears to be the result of a weaker (compared with 1998) simulated anomalous Walker circulation, while the reduced skill is associated with pronounced intraseasonal activity that is not well captured by the model. Remarkably, the model does produce an ensemble mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response that is approximately in phase with (though weaker than) the observed MJ0 anomalies. This is consistent with the idea that SST coupling may play an important role in the MJO.

Description: This article is partly a review and partly a new research paper on monsoon-ENSO relationship. The paper begins with a discussion of the basic relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO dating back to the work of Sir Gilbert Walker up to research results in more recent years. Various factors that may affect the monsoon-ENSO, relationship, including regional coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, Eurasian snow cover, land-atmosphere hydrologic feedback, intraseasonal oscillation, biennial variability and inter-decadal variations, are discussed. The extreme complex and highly nonlinear nature of the monsoon-ENSO relationship is stressed. We find that for regional impacts on the monsoon, El Nino and La Nina are far from simply mirror images of each other. These two polarities of ENSO can have strong or no impacts on monsoon anomalies depending on the strength of the intraseasonal oscillations and the phases of the inter-decadal variations. For the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) as a whole, the ENSO impact is effected through a east-west shift in the Walker Circulation. For rainfall anomalies over specific monsoon areas, regional processes play important roles in addition to the shift in the Walker Circulation. One of the key regional processes identified for the boreal summer monsoon is the anomalous West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA). This regional feature has similar signatures in interannual and intraseasonal time scales and appears to determine whether the monsoon-ENSO relationship is strong or weak in a given year. Another important regional feature includes a rainfall and SST dipole across the Indian Ocean, which may have strong impact on the austral summer monsoon. Results are shown indicating that monsoon surface wind forcings may induce a strong biennial signal in ENSO and that strong monsoon-ENSO coupling may translate into pronounced biennial variability in ENSO. Finally, a new paradigm is proposed for the study of monsoon variability. This paradigm provides a unified framework in which monsoon predictability, the role of regional vs. basin-scale processes, its relationship with different climate subsystems, and causes of secular changes in monsoon-ENSO relationship can be investigated.

Description: Abstract A 1999 study reports an advancement of spring in Europe by 0.2 days per year in the 30 years since 1960. Our analysis indicates that this trend results directly from a change in the late-winter surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic: the southwesterly direction became more dominant, and the speed of these southwesterlies increased slightly. Splitting the 52-year NCEP reanalysis dataset into the First Half, FH (1948-1973)), and the Second Half, SH (1974-1999), we analyze the wind direction for the February mean at three sites at 45N: site A at 30W, site B at 20W, and site C at 10W. The incidence (number of years) of the southwesterlies in SH Vs. (FH) at these sites respectively increased in SH as follows: 24(18), 19(12), 14(l 1); whereas the incidence of northeasterlies decreased: 0(2), 1(2), and 1(6). When the February mean wind is southwesterly, the monthly mean sensible heat flux from the ocean at these sites takes zero or slightly negative values, that is, the surface air is warmer than the ocean. Analyzing the scenario in the warm late winter 1990, we observe that the sensible heat flux from the ocean surface in February 1990 shows a "tongue" of negative values extending southwest from southern England to 7N. This indicates that the source of the maritime air advected into Europe lies to the south of the "tongue." Streamline analysis suggests that the Southwestern or southcentral North Atlantic is the source. For February 1990, we find strong, ascending motions over Europe at 700 mb, up to -0.4 Pa/s as monthly averages. Associated with the unstable low-levels of the troposphere are positive rain and cloud anomalies. Thus, positive in situ feedback over land in late winter (when shortwave absorption is not significant) apparently further enhances the surface temperature through an increase in the greenhouse effect due to increased water vapor and cloudiness.

Description: Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

Description: It is a long-held fundamental belief that the basic cause of a monsoon is land-sea thermal contrast on the continental scale. Through general circulation model experiments we demonstrate that this belief should be changed. The Asian and Australian summer monsoon circulations are largely intact in an experiment in which Asia, maritime continent, and Australia are replaced by ocean. It is also shown that the change resulting from such replacement is in general due more to the removal of topography than to the removal of land-sea contrast. Therefore, land-sea contrast plays only a minor modifying role in Asian and Australian summer monsoons. This also happens to the Central American summer monsoon. However, the same thing cannot be said of the African and South American summer monsoons. In Asian and Australian winter monsoons land-sea contrast also plays only a minor role. Our interpretation for the origin of monsoon is that the summer monsoon is the result of ITCZ's (intertropical convergence zones) peak being substantially (more than 10 degrees) away from the equator. The origin of the ITCZ has been previously interpreted by Chao. The circulation around thus located ITCZ, previously interpreted by Chao and Chen through the modified Gill solution and briefly described in this paper, explains the monsoon circulation. The longitudinal location of the ITCZs is determined by the distribution of surface conditions. ITCZ's favor locations of higher SST as in western Pacific and Indian Ocean, or tropical landmass, due to land-sea contrast, as in tropical Africa and South America. Thus, the role of landmass in the origin of monsoon can be replaced by ocean of sufficiently high SST. Furthermore, the ITCZ circulation extends into the tropics in the other hemisphere to give rise to the winter monsoon circulation there. Also through the equivalence of land-sea contrast and higher SST, it is argued that the basic monsoon onset mechanism proposed by Chao is valid for all monsoons.

Description: Simultaneous tropospheric ozone and aerosols observed using the TOMS satellite instrument are reported for Madagascar during the 1979 through 1999 time period Ozone observations made using the TOMS tropospheric ozone convective-cloud differential method show that the tropospheric ozone amount associated with Madagascar has an average monthly value of 30 DU (Dobson units). The average value is enhanced by 10 to 15 DU in October This maximum coincides with the time of maximum biomass area burning in Madagascar and parts of southern Africa. The aerosol index derived from TOMS is examined for correlation with biomass burning in Madagascar and southern Africa. There is good correlation between a satellite observation derived fire index for different parts of Madagascar, tropospheric ozone and the TOMS aerosol index in the same geographical area. Aerosols from fires were found to reach their peak in November and to persist over Madagascar until sometime in December.

Description: A recent analysis found a negative correlation between the area-mean cloud amount and the corresponding mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within the cloudy areas. The SST-cloud relation becomes more evident when the SST contrast between warm pool and surrounding cold pool (DSST) in the tropical Pacific is stronger than normal. The above feature is related to the finding that the strength of subsidence over the cold pool is limited by radiative cooling because of its small variability. As a result, the area of radiatively-driven subsidence must expand in response to enhanced low-boundary forcing due to SST warming or enhanced basin-scale DSST. This leads to more cloud free regions and less cloudy regions. The increased ratio of cloud-free areas to cloudy areas leads to more high SST areas (〉29.50C) due to enhanced solar radiation.

Description: Refinements to the snow-physics scheme of SSiB (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model) are described and evaluated. The upgrades include a partial redesign of the conceptual architecture to better simulate the diurnal temperature of the snow surface. For a deep snowpack, there are two separate prognostic temperature snow layers - the top layer responds to diurnal fluctuations in the surface forcing, while the deep layer exhibits a slowly varying response. In addition, the use of a very deep soil temperature and a treatment of snow aging with its influence on snow density is parameterized and evaluated. The upgraded snow scheme produces better timing of snow melt in GSWP-style simulations using ISLSCP Initiative I data for 1987-1988 in the Russian Wheat Belt region. To simulate more realistic runoff in regions with high orographic variability, additional improvements are made to SSiB's soil hydrology. These improvements include an orography-based surface runoff scheme as well as interaction with a water table below SSiB's three soil layers. The addition of these parameterizations further help to simulate more realistic runoff and accompanying prognostic soil moisture fields in the GSWP-style simulations. In intercomparisons of the performance of the new snow-physics SSiB with its earlier versions using an 18-year single-site dataset from Valdai Russia, the version of SSiB described in this paper again produces the earliest onset of snow melt. Soil moisture and deep soil temperatures also compare favorably with observations.

Description: Downward solar fluxes measured at Dungsha coral island (20 deg. 42 min. N, 116 deg. 43 min. E) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (May-June 1998) have been calibrated and compared with radiative transfer calculations for three clear-sky days. Model calculations use water vapor and temperature profiles from radiosound measurements and the aerosol optical thickness derived from sunphotometric radiance measurements at the surface. Results show that the difference between observed and model-calculated downward fluxes is less than 3% of the daily mean. Averaged over the three clear days, the difference reduces to 1%. The downward surface solar flux averaged over the three days is 314 W per square meters from observations and 317 W per square meters from model calculations, This result is consistent with a previous study using TOGA CAORE measurements, which found good agreements between observations and model calculations. This study provides an extra piece of useful information on the modeling of radiative transfer, which fills in the puzzle of the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere.

Description: The sea-surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes have been retrieved from the radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The surface radiation data set covers the domain 40S-40N and 90E-170W. The temporal resolution is 1 day, and the spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg latitude-longitude. The retrieved surface radiation have been validated with the radiometric measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measuring (ARM) site on Manus island in the equatorial western Pacific for a period of 15 months. It has also been validated with the measurements at the radiation site on Dungsha island in the South China Sea during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) Intensive Observing Period (May and June 1998). The data set is used to study the effect of El Nino and East Asian Summer monsoon on the heating of the ocean in the tropical western Pacific and the South China Sea. Interannual variations of clouds associated with El Nino and the East Asian Summer monsoon have a large impact on the radiative heating of the ocean. It has been found that the magnitude of the interannual variation of the seasonal mean surface radiative heating exceeds 40 W/sq m over large areas. Together with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) shortwave fluxes at top of the atmosphere and the radiative transfer calculations of clear-sky fluxes, this surface radiation data set is also used to study the impact of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere. It is found that clouds enhance the atmospheric solar heating by approx. 20 W/sq m in the tropical western Pacific and the South China Sea. This result is important for evaluating the accuracy of solar flux calculations in clear and cloudy atmospheres.

Description: Emissions of atmospheric species from the engines of subsonic aircraft at cruise altitude (roughly, above seven kilometers) are of concern to scientists, the aviation industry and policymakers for two reasons. First, water vapor, soot and sulfur oxides, and related heterogeneous processes, may modify clouds and aerosols enough to perturb radiative forcing in the UT/LS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere). A discussion of these phenomena appears in Chapter 3 of the IPCC Aviation Assessment (1999). An airborne campaign conducted to evaluate aviation effects on contrail, cirrus and cloud formation, is described in Geophysical Research Letters. The second concern arises from subsonic aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NO(sub x)), CO, and hydrocarbons. These species may add to the background mixture of photochemically reactive species that form ozone. In the UT/LS, ozone is a highly effective greenhouse gas. The impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions on tropospheric NO(sub x) and ozone budgets have been studied with models that focus on UT chemistry [e.g. see discussions of individual models in Brasseur et al., 1998; Friedl et al., 1997; IPCC, 1999]. Depending on the model used, projected increases in the global subsonic aircraft fleet from 1992 to 2015 will lead to a 50-100 pptv increase in UT/LS NO. at 12 km (compared to 50-150 pptv background) in northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The corresponding 12-km ozone increase is 7-11 ppbv, or 5-10% (Chapter 4 in IPCC, 1999). Two major sources of uncertainties in model estimates of aviation effects are: (1) the often limited degree to which global models - the scale required to evaluate aircraft emissions - realistically simulate atmospheric transport and other physical processes; (2) limited UT/LS observations of trace gases with which to evaluate model performance. In response to the latter deficiency, a number of airborne campaigns aimed at elucidating the effect of aircraft on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone were performed between 1990 and 1996 (see descriptions in Friedl et al., 1997; Brasseur et al., 1998).

Description: We evaluated the impact of several newly available sources of meteorological data on mesoscale model forecasts of precipitation produced by the extra-tropical cyclone that struck Florida on February 2, 1998. Precipitation distributions of convective rainfall events were derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Multi-Channel Passive Microwave Sensor (TMI) microwave radiometric data by means of the Goddard PROFiling (GPROF) algorithm. Continuous lightning distributions were obtained from sferics measurements obtained from a network of VLF radio receivers. Histograms of coincident sferics frequency distributions were matched to those of precipitation to derive bogus convective rainfall rates from the continuously available sferics measurements. SSM/I and TMI microwave data were used to derive Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW) distributions. The TMI also provided sea surface temperatures (SSTS) of the Loop Current and Gulf Stream with improved structural detail. A series of experiments assimilated IPW and latent heating from the bogus convective rainfall for six-hours in the MM5 mesoscale forecast model to produce nine-hour forecasts of all rainfall as well as other weather parameters. Although continuously assimilating latent heating only slightly improved the surface pressure distribution forecast, it significantly improved the precipitation forecasts. Correctly locating convective rainfall was found critical for assimilating latent heating in the forecast model, but measurement of the rainfall intensity proved to be less important. The improved SSTs also had a positive impact on rainfall forecasts for this case. Assimilating bogus rainfall in the model produced nine-hour forecasts of radar reflectivity distributions that agreed well with coincident observations from the TRMM spaceborne precipitation radar, ground based radar and spaceborne microwave measurements.

Description: The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude northern lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS); the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occultation instrument. Time series for the different data sets are consistent with each other, and diverge from model time series during December and January. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be much less sensitive to the model photochemistry than to the model vertical transport, which depends on the model vertical motion as well as the model vertical gradient. We evaluate the dependence of model ozone evolution on the model ozone gradient by comparing simulations with different initial conditions for ozone. The modeled ozone throughout December and January most closely resembles observed ozone when the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. We make a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in the vertical advection using diabatic trajectory calculations. The net transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The observed and modeled ozone time series during December and January are consistent when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island in the Bahamas during August - September, 1998 as a part of the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) which focussed on hurricane development and tracking. During the period August 21 - 24, hurricane Bonnie passed near Andros Island and influenced the water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements acquired by the SRL. Two drying signatures related to the hurricane were recorded by the SRL and other sensors. Cirrus cloud optical depths (at 351 nm) were also measured during this period. Optical depth values ranged from less than 0.01 to 1.5. The influence of multiple scattering on these optical depth measurements was studied. A correction technique is presented which minimizes the influences of multiple scattering and derives information about cirrus cloud optical and physical properties. The UV/IR cirrus cloud optical depth ratio was estimated based on a comparison of lidar and GOES measurements. Simple radiative transfer model calculations compared with GOES satellite brightness temperatures indicate that satellite radiances are significantly affected by the presence of cirrus clouds if IR optical depths are approximately 0.005 or greater. Using the ISCCP detection threshold for cirrus clouds on the GOES data presented here, a high bias of up to 40% in the GOES precipitable water retrieval was found.

Description: Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

Description: A chemical transport model is used to investigate the processes that control the depth and duration of the ozone 'hole' in the lower stratosphere through comparisons of model output with measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), both on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This study extends previous model comparisons with observations into October and November and examine levels in (greater than 31 hPa) and above (less than 31 hPa) the chemical loss region. Averages of column ozone in the model decrease through mid-October below 31 hPa but begin to increase in mid-September above 31 hPa. An investigation of model-tracer data comparisons and other meteorological parameters indicate that the model presents a consistent picture of top-down recovery and tracer transport. An O03budget study at 500 K (below 31 hPa) and 840 K (above 31 hPa) is carried out to investigate the processes that control the timing of the transition of ozone from a chemical to dynamically driven regime. The model ozone decrease at 500 K is due to chemical loss in August and September but is due to upward motion in October. The ozone increase at 840 K is primarily due to photochemical production, with a smaller contribution from transport. These results show that chemistry and dynamics can play different roles in polar vortex ozone recovery at different levels.

Description: The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Description: The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.

Description: Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.

Description: The numerical simulation of precipitation helps scientists understand the complex mechanisms that determine how and why rainfall is distributed across the globe. Simulation aids in the development of forecastin,g efforts that inform policies regarding the management of water resources. Precipitation modeling also provides short-term warnings, for emergencies such as flash floods and mudslides. Just as precipitation modeling can warn of an impending abundance of rainfall, it can help anticipate the absence of rainfall in drought. What constitutes a drought? A meteorological drought simply means that an area is getting a significantly lower amount of rain than usual over a prolonged period of time and an agricultural drought is based on the level of soil moisture.

Description: In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Description: Differences in air pressure are a major cause of atmospheric circulation. Because heat excites the movement of atoms, warm temperatures cause, air molecules to expand. Because those molecules now occupy a larger space, the pressure that their weight exerts is decreased. Air from surrounding high-pressure areas is pushed toward the low-pressure areas, creating circulation. This process causes a major pattern of global atmosphere movement known as meridional circulation. In this form of convection, or vertical air movement, heated equatorial air rises and travels through the upper atmosphere toward higher latitudes. Air just above the equator heads toward the North Pole, and air just below the equator moves southward. This air movement fills the gap created where increased air pressure pushes down cold air. The ,cold air moves along the surface back toward the equator, replacing the air masses that rise there. Another influence on atmospheric. circulation is the Coriolis force. Because of the Earth's rotation, large-scale wind currents move in the direction of this axial spin around low-pressure areas. Wind rotates counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. just as the Earth's rotation affects airflow, so too does its surface. In the phenomenon of orographic lifting, elevated topographic features such as mountain ranges lift air as it moves up their surface.

Description: Aerosol is any small particle of matter that rests suspended in the atmosphere. Natural sources, such as deserts, create some aerosols; consumption of fossil fuels and industrial activity create other aerosols. All the microscopic aerosol particles add up to a large amount of material floating in the atmosphere. You can see the particles in the haze that floats over polluted cities. Beyond this visible effect, aerosols can actually lower temperatures. They do this by blocking, or scattering, a portion of the sun's energy from reaching the surface. Because of this influence, scientists study the physical properties of atmospheric aerosols. Reliable numerical models for atmospheric aerosols play an important role in research.

Description: We estimate solar radiative flux changes due to aerosols over the mid-latitude North Atlantic by combining optical depths from AVHRR measurements with aerosol properties from the recent TARFOX program. Results show that, over the ocean the aerosol decreases the net radiative flux at the tropopause and therefore has a cooling effect. Cloud-free, 24-hour average flux changes range from -9 W/sq m near the eastern US coast in summer to -1 W/sq m in the mid-Atlantic during winter. Cloud-free North Atlantic regional averages range from -5.1 W/sq m in summer to -1.7 W/sq m in winter, with an annual average of -3.5 W/sq m. Cloud effects estimated from ISCCP data, reduce the regional annual average to -0.8 W/sq m. All values are for the moderately absorbing TARFOX aerosol (omega(0.55 microns) = 0.9); values for a nonabsorbing aerosol are approx. 30% more negative. We compare our results to a variety of other calculations of aerosol radiative effects.

Description: During the TEFLUN-B (Texas-Florida under-flights for TRMM) field experiment of August-September, 1998, a number of ER-2 aircraft flights with a host of microwave instruments were conducted over many convective storms, including some hurricanes, in the coastal region of Florida and Texas. These instruments include MIR (Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer), AMPR (Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer), and EDOP (ER-2 Doppler Radar). EDOP is operated at the frequency of 9.7 GHz, while the AMPR and the MIR together give eleven channels of radiometric measurements in the frequency range of 10-340 GHz. The concurrent measurements from these instruments provide unique data sets for studying the details of the microphysics of hydrometeors. Preliminary examination of these data sets shows features that are generally well understood; i.e., radiometric measurements at frequencies less than or equal to 37 GHz mainly respond to rain, while those at frequencies greater than or equal to 150 GHz, to ice particles above the freezing level. Model calculations of brightness temperature and radar reflectivity are performed and results compared with these measurements. For simplicity the analysis is limited to the anvil region of the storms where hydrometeors are predominantly frozen. Only one ice particle size distribution is examined in the calculations of brightness temperature and radar reflectivity in this initial study. Estimation of ice water path is made based on the best agreement between the measurements and calculations of brightness temperature and reflectivity. Problems associated with these analyses and measurement accuracy will be discussed.

Description: The NASA Langley Research Center's airborne UV Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system measures vertical profiles of ozone and aerosols above and below the aircraft along its flight track. This system has been used in over 20 airborne field missions designed to study the troposphere and stratosphere since 1980. Four of these missions involved tropospheric measurement programs in the Pacific Ocean with two in the western North Pacific and two in the South Pacific. The UV DIAL system has been used in these missions to study such things as pollution outflow, long-range transport, and stratospheric intrusions; categorize the air masses encountered; and to guide the aircraft to altitudes where interesting features can be studied using the in situ instruments. This paper will highlight the findings with the UV DIAL system in the Pacific Ocean field programs and introduce the mission planned for the western North Pacific for February-April 2001. This will be an excellent opportunity for collaboration between the NASA airborne mission and those with ground-based War systems in Asia Pacific Rim countries to make a more complete determination of the transport of air from Asia to the western Pacific.

Description: Long-term global radiation programs, such as AERONET and BSRN, have shown success in monitoring column averaged cloud and aerosol optical properties. Little attention has been focused on global measurements of vertically resolved optical properties. Lidar systems are the preferred instrument for such measurements. However, global usage of lidar systems has not been achieved because of limits imposed by older systems that were large, expensive, and logistically difficult to use in the field. Small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar systems are now currently available and overcome problems associated with older systems. The first such lidar to be developed is the Micro-pulse lidar System (MPL). The MPL has proven to be useful in the field because it can be automated, runs continuously (day and night), is eye-safe, can easily be transported and set up, and has a small field-of-view which removes multiple scattering concerns. We have developed successful protocols to operate and calibrate MPL systems. We have also developed a data analysis algorithm that produces data products such as cloud and aerosol layer heights, optical depths, extinction profiles, and the extinction-backscatter ratio. The algorithm minimizes the use of a priori assumptions and also produces error bars for all data products. Here we present an overview of our MPL protocols and data analysis techniques. We also discuss the ongoing construction of a global MPL network in conjunction with the AERONET program. Finally, we present some early results from the MPL network.

Description: Development of a UV laser transmitter capable of operating from a space platform is a critical step in enabling global earth observations of aerosols and ozone at resolutions greater than current passive instrument capabilities. Tropospheric chemistry is well recognized as the next frontier for global atmospheric measurement. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) have jointly studied the requirements for a satellite based, global ozone monitoring instrument. The study, called Ozone Research using Advanced Cooperative Lidar Experiment (ORACLE) has defined the Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) instrument performance, weight and power, and configuration requirements for a space based measurement. In order to achieve the measurement resolution and acceptable signal-to-noise from lidar returns, 500mJ/pulse (5 Watts average power) is required at both 305-308nm and 315-320nm wavelengths. These are consecutive pulses, in a 10 Hz, double-pulsed format. The two wavelengths are used as the on- and off-lines for the ozone DIAL measurement. NASA Langley is currently developing technology for a UV laser transmitter capable of meeting the ORACLE requirements. Experimental efforts to date have shown that the UV generation scheme is viable, and that energies greater than l00mJ/pulse are possible. In this paper, we will briefly discuss the down select process for the proposed laser design, the study effort to date and the laser system design, including both primary and alternate approaches. We will describe UV laser technology that minimizes the total number of optical components (for enhanced reliability) as well as the number of UV coated optics required to transmit the light from the laser (for enhanced optical damage resistance). While the goal is to develop a laser that will produce 500 mJ of energy, we will describe an optional design that will produce output energies between 100 - 200 mJ/unit and techniques for combining multiple laser modules in order to transmit a minimum of 500mJ of UV energy in each pulse of the on- and off-line pulse pairs. This modular laser approach provides redundancy and significantly reduces development time, risk and cost when compared to the development of a single, 500mJ double-pulsed laser subsystem. Finally, we will summarize the laser development effort to date, including results that include the highest known UV energy ( 130 mJ at 320nm) ever produced by a solid-state laser operating in this wavelength region.

Description: GLOW (Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds) is a mobile Doppler lidar system which uses direct detection Doppler lidar techniques to measure wind profiles from the surface into the lower stratosphere. The system is contained in a modified van to allow deployment in field operations. The lidar system uses a Nd:YAG laser transmitter to measure winds using either aerosol backscatter at 1064 nm or molecular backscatter at 355 nm. The receiver telescope is a 45 cm Dall-Kirkham which is fiber coupled to separate Doppler receivers, one optimized for the aerosol backscatter wind measurement and another optimized for the molecular backscatter wind measurement. The receivers are implementations of the 'double edge' technique and use high spectral resolution Fabry-Perot etalons to measure the Doppler shift. A 45 cm aperture azimuth-over-elevation scanner is mounted on the roof of the van to allow full sky access and a variety of scanning options. GLOW is intended to be used as a deployable field system for studying atmospheric dynamics and transport and can also serve as a testbed to evaluate candidate technologies developed for use in future spaceborne systems. In addition, it can be used for calibration/validation activities following launch of spaceborne wind lidar systems. A description of the mobile system is presented along with the examples of lidar wind profiles obtained with the system.

Description: Osmotek, Inc. developed the Direct Osmosis treatment system through SBIR funding from Ames Research Center. Using technology originally developed for flight aboard the Space Station, the company brought it to their commercial water purification treatment system, Direct Osmosis. This water purification system uses a direct osmosis process followed by a reverse osmosis treatment. Because the product extracts water from a waste product, Osmotek is marketing the unit for use in landfills. The system can treat leachate (toxic chemicals leached into a water source), by filtering the water and leaving behind the leahcate. The leachate then becomes solidified into substance that can not seep into water.

Description: SHDOM is a general purpose, publicly available, three-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model. SHDOM is an explicit method, which means it solves for the whole radiation field, as distinct from Monte Carlo methods which solve for particular radiative outputs. SHDOM is particularly well suited for remote sensing applications, where it can compute outgoing radiances at many angles from a cloud field at virtually no extra cost. SHDOM is not appropriate for calculating domain average quantities for which Monte Carlo methods excel. The I3RC intercomparison offers an opportunity to explore the pros and cons of SHDOM and Monte Carlo models on some real world inhomogeneous cloud fields. Specifically, we wish to determine the computer resources required to achieve a particular accuracy for a certain number of outputs using SHDOM and Monte Carlo models. This will help guide modelers on the appropriate choice of SHDOM or Monte Carlo for their applications. To emphasize the importance of this accuracy versus CPU time tradeoff, we are submitting two SHDOM entries (low and high resolution) in the I3RC.

Description: The Students' Cloud Observations On-Line (S'COOL) Project involved students in K-16 as ground truth observers for a NASA Earth-Observing satellite instrument. The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument allows scientists to study the Earth's energy budget and how clouds affect it. Student reports of cloud conditions help scientists verify their algorithms and allow students to be involved in obtaining and analyzing real scientific data. The presentation contains 23 slides.

Description: The Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group is participating in an international effort to explore the projected interactions of the atmosphere with biota, human activity, and the natural environment over the next three decades. The group uses computer simulations and statistical analyses to compare theory and observations of the composition of the lower atmosphere. This study of global habitability change is part of a more ambitious activity to understand global habitability. This broad planetary understanding is central to planetary habitability, biomarker detection, and similar aspects of Astrobiology. The group has made highly detailed studies of immense intercontinental plumes that affect the chemistry of the global atmosphere, especially the region below the ozone (O3) layer whose chemical composition defines the conditions for healthy humans and the biosphere. For some decades there has been concern about the pollution from cities and industrial burning and its possible effect in increasing smog ozone, not only in continental regions, but also in plumes that spread downwind. Recently, there has been new concern about another kind of pollution plume. Projections for a greatly expanded aircraft fleet imply that there will be plumes of nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) from jet exhaust in the Northern Hemisphere downwind of major air traffic routes. Both of these are tied to large-scale O3 in the troposphere, where it is toxic to humans and plant tissues.

Description: Responses of the nightside magnetosphere and auroral zone to interplanetary shocks are studies using WIND solar wind data and POLAR UV imaging data.

Description: The Cassini spacecraft flew past the Earth in a trajectory almost along the Sun-Earth line, giving a unique perspective of low frequency waves in geospace.

Description: The turbulent latent and sensible heat fluxes are necessary to study heat budget of the upper ocean or initialize ocean general circulation models. In order to retrieve the latent heat flux from satellite observations authors mostly use a bulk approximation of the flux whose parameters are derived from different instrument. In this paper, an approach based on artificial neural networks is proposed and compared to the bulk method on a global data set and 3 local data sets.

Description: This paper describes the mission and system design for a viable, promising first mission application of solar sail technology.

Description: This paper summarizes the results of testing and gives a detailed report on the spectral, radiometric and spatial performance of the AIRS.

Description: The 1999-2000 Arctic stratospheric vortex was unusually cold, especially in the early winter lower stratosphere, with a larger area near polar stratospheric cloud formation temperatures in Dec and Jan, and much lower temperatures averaged over Nov-Jan, than any previously observed Arctic winter.

Description: The solar fields and particles environment and its interaction with planetary magnetospheres are not only of considerable scientific interest, they can impact human endeavors as well.

Description: The Mt. Washington Icing Sensors Project (MWISP) was an intensive multiagency field test of remote-sensing technologies and methods for in-flight icing detection. This field test was the first comprehensive examination of multiple remote-sensing technologies, and it included ground and airborne in situ measurements for comparison. The data gathered will allow the assessment of icing remote-sensing technologies leading toward the development of ground-based and airborne systems. These systems will provide flight crews with the information required for avoiding or exiting hazardous icing conditions.

Description: Ames researchers have combined measurements from satellite, aircraft, and the surface to estimate the effect of airborne particles (aerosols) on the solar radiation over the North Atlantic region. These aerosols (which come from both natural and pollution sources) can reflect solar radiation, causing a cooling effect that opposes the warming caused by carbon dioxide. Recently, increased attention has been paid to aerosol effects to better understand the Earth climate system.