ALBERT

Description: ABSTRACT A reactive transport modeling framework is presented that allows simultaneous assessment of groundwater flow, water quality evolution including δ 13 C, and 14 C activity or “age”. Through application of this framework, simulated 14 C activities can be directly compared with measured 14 C activities. This bypasses the need for interpretation of a 14 C age prior to flow simulation through factoring out processes other than radioactive decay, which typically involves simplifying assumptions regarding spatial and temporal variability in reactions, flow, and mixing. The utility of the approach is demonstrated for an aquifer system with spatially variable carbonate mineral distribution, multiple organic carbon sources, and transient boundary conditions for 14 C activity in the recharge water. In this case the simulated 14 C age was shown to be relatively insensitive to isotopic fractionation during DOC oxidation and variations in assumed DOC degradation behaviour. We demonstrate that the model allows quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding controls on groundwater age and water quality evolution for all three carbon isotopes. The approach also facilitates incorporation of multiple environmental tracers and combination with parameter optimization techniques. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Water scarcity is likely to increase in the coming years, making improvements in irrigation efficiency increasingly important. An emerging technology that promises to increase irrigation efficiency substantially is a wireless irrigation sensor network that uploads sensor data into irrigation management software, creating an integrated system that allows real-time monitoring and control of moisture status that has been shown in experimental settings to reduce irrigation costs, lower plant loss rates, shorten production times, decrease pesticide application, and increase yield, quality, and profit. We use an original survey to investigate likely initial acceptance, ceiling adoption rates, and profitability of this new sensor network technology in the nursery and greenhouse industry. We find that adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are decreasing in price, as expected. The price elasticity of the probability of adoption suggests that sensor networks are likely to diffuse at a rate somewhat greater than that of drip irrigation. Adoption rates for a base system and demand for expansion components are increasing in specialization in ornamental production: Growers earning greater shares of revenue from greenhouse and nursery operations are willing to pay more for a base system and are willing to purchase larger numbers of expansion components at any given price. We estimate that growers who are willing to purchase a sensor network expect investment in this technology to generate significant profit, consistent with findings from experimental studies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In this study, rock friction ‘stick-slip’ experiments are used to develop constraints on models of earthquake recurrence. Constant-rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop and as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating earthquakes driven by afterslip, or low-frequency earthquakes loaded by episodic slip. As follows from the previous studies referred to above, experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a non-linear slip-predictable model. The fault's rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence models. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence co-vary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a ‘memory’ of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.

Description: This technical note presents a useful methodology for studying how the variance of hydraulic and/or reactive attributes of an aquifer are linked to the multi-scaled and hierarchical sedimentary architecture of the aquifer. A new recursive equation is derived which quantitatively describes how the variance is related to sedimentary facies defined at all scales across an entire stratal hierarchy. As compared to prior published equations that emphasize differences in means among facies populations within a hierarchical level, it emphasizes differences across levels. Because of the hierarchical relationships among the terms of the equation, we find it to be useful for conducting a holistic analysis of the relative contributions to the variance arising from all facies types defined across all scales. The methodology is demonstrated using appropriate field data, and is shown to be useful in defining parsimonious classification systems.

Description: ABSTRACT A primary concern for geologic carbon storage is the potential for leakage of stored carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the shallow subsurface where it could degrade the quality of groundwater and surface water. In order to predict and mitigate the potentially negative impacts of CO 2 leakage, it is important to understand the physical processes that CO 2 will undergo as it moves through naturally heterogeneous porous media formations. Previous studies have shown that heterogeneity can enhance the evolution of gas phase CO 2 in some cases, but the conditions under which this occurs have not yet been quantitatively defined, nor tested through laboratory experiments. This study quantitatively investigates the effects of geologic heterogeneity on the process of gas phase CO 2 evolution in shallow aquifers through an extensive set of experiments conducted in a column that was packed with layers of various test sands. Soil moisture sensors were utilized to observe the formation of gas phase near the porous media interfaces. Results indicate that the conditions under which heterogeneity controls gas phase evolution can be successfully predicted through analysis of simple parameters, including the dissolved CO 2 concentration in the flowing water, the distance between the heterogeneity and the leakage location, and some fundamental properties of the porous media. Results also show that interfaces where a less permeable material overlies a more permeable material affect gas phase evolution more significantly than interfaces with the opposite layering.

Description: To study how an impacting plume modifies the mantle lithosphere, we analyzed the microstructures and crystal preferred orientations (CPO) of 29 peridotites and 37 pyroxenites that sample the mantle root of the Ontong Java Plateau (OJP) from 60 to 120 km depth. The peridotites show a strong compositional variability, but homogeneous coarse-granular to tabular microstructures, except for those equilibrated at the shallowest and deepest depths, which are porphyroclastic. All peridotites have clear olivine CPO, with dominant fiber-[010] patterns. Low intragranular misorientations and straight grain boundaries in olivine suggest that, above 100 km depth, annealing often followed deformation. Calculated density and P-wave velocities of the peridotites decrease weakly with depth. S-wave velocities decrease faster, resulting in increasing Vp/Vs ratio with depth. Calculated densities and seismic velocity profiles are consistent with those estimated for normal mantle compositions under a cold oceanic geotherm. Enrichment in pyroxenites may further increase seismic velocities. The calculated seismic properties cannot therefore explain the low S-waves velocities predicted by Rayleigh wave tomography and ScS data in the mantle beneath the OJP. Calculated P- and S-wave anisotropy is variable (2-12%). It is higher on average in the deeper section of the lithosphere. Because olivine has dominantly [010]-fiber CPO patterns, if foliations are horizontal, vertically propagating S-waves and Rayleigh waves will sample very weak anisotropy in the OJP mantle lithosphere. Moreover, if the orientation of the lineation changes with depth, the anisotropy-induced contrast in seismic properties might produce an intralithospheric reflector marking the stratification of the OJP mantle root.

Description: The quantification of heat and mass flow between deep reservoirs and the surface is important for understanding magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Here, we use high-resolution measurement of carbon dioxide flux (ϕCO 2 ) and heat flow at the surface to characterize the mass (CO 2 and steam) and heat released to the atmosphere from two magma-hydrothermal systems. Our soil gas and heat flow surveys at Rotokawa and White Island in the Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, include over 3,000 direct measurements of ϕCO 2 and soil temperature and 60 carbon isotopic values on soil gases. Carbon dioxide flux was separated into background and magmatic/hydrothermal populations based on the measured values and isotopic characterization. Total CO 2 emission rates (ΣCO 2 ) of 441 ± 84 t d -1 and 124 ± 18 t d -1 were calculated for Rotokawa (2.9 km 2 ) and for the crater floor at White Island (0.3 km 2 ), respectively. The total CO 2 emissions differ from previously published values by +386 t d -1 at Rotokawa and +25 t d -1 at White Island, demonstrating that earlier research underestimated emissions by 700% (Rotokawa) and 25% (White Island). These differences suggest that soil CO 2 emissions facilitate more robust estimates of the thermal energy and mass flux in geothermal systems than traditional approaches. Combining the magmatic/hydrothermal-sourced CO 2 emission (constrained using stable isotopes) with reservoir H 2 O:CO 2 mass ratios and the enthalpy of evaporation, the surface expression of thermal energy release for the Rotokawa hydrothermal system (226 MW t ) is 10 times greater than the White Island crater floor (22.5 MW t ).

Description: Fluvial sediment loads are frequently calculated with rating curves fit to measured sediment transport rates. Rating curves are often treated as statistical representations in which the fitted parameters have little or no physical meaning. Such models, however, may produce large errors when extrapolation is needed, and they provide no insight into the sediment transport process. It is shown that log-linear least squares, the usual method for fitting rating curves, does not generally produce physically meaningful parameter values. In addition, it cannot accommodate data that include zero-transport samples. Alternative fitting methods based non-linear least squares and on maximum likelihood parameter estimation are described and evaluated. The maximum likelihood approach is shown to fit synthetic data better than linear or non-linear least squares, and to perform well with data that include zero-transport samples. In contrast, non-linear least squares methods produce large errors in the parameter estimates when zero-transport samples are present or when the variance structure of the data is incorrectly specified. Analyses with fractional bedload data from a mountain stream suggest that bedload transport rates are gamma distributed, that the arrivals of bedload particles in a sampler conform to a Poisson distribution, and that the variance of non-zero samples can be expressed as a power function of the mean. Preliminary physical interpretations of variations in the rating curve parameters fit to fractional bedload data with the maximum likelihood method are proposed, and their relation to some previous interpretations of rating curve parameters are briefly discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We derive equations for HTI and orthorhombic symmetries to analyze fluid substitution effects in porous fractured media. The derivations are based on the anisotropic Gassmann equation and linear slip theory. We assess the influence of fluid substitution (gas, brine, and oil), on elastic moduli, velocities, anisotropy, and azimuthal amplitude variations. We find that in the direction normal to fractures, P-wave moduli increase as much as 56% and P-wave velocity increases up to 19% for gas-to-brine substitution. For the direction parallel to fractures, P-wave velocity remains almost constant when porosity is low (5%), but can increase up to 4% if porosity is high (25%). Since P-waves in two different directions have different sensitivities to fluids and fractures, the Thomsen's parameters (defined for HTI and orthorhombic symmetries), ε and δ , are sensitive to fluid types and fractures. We also found that δ is sensitive to porosity for liquid saturation, but insensitive to porosity for the case of gas saturation. Gassmann assumes (and as has been observed) that shear modulus does not depend on fluids. And we observe no changes in shear-wave splitting ( γ ) for different fluids. The azimuthal amplitude variation is dependent on fluid types, fractures and porosity. We observe up to 12% increase in azimuthal amplitude variation for low porosity gas sands after brine saturation, and 6% decrease for high porosity gas sands. We find that the percentage changes in gas-to-oil substitution are about half that of the gas-to-brine case. The equations we have derived provide a useful tool to quantitatively evaluate the effects of fluid substitution on seismic anisotropy.

Description: In the central part of Fennoscandia the crust is currently rising, because of the delayed response of the viscous mantle to melting of the Late Pleistocene ice sheet. This process, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), causes a negative anomaly in the present-day static gravity field as isostatic equilibrium has not been reached yet. Several studies have tried to use this anomaly as a constraint on models of GIA, but the uncertainty in crustal and upper mantle structures has not been fully taken intoaccount. Therefore, our aim is to revisit this using improved crustal models and compensation techniques. We find that, in contrast with other studies, the effect of crustal anomalies on the gravity field cannot be effectively removed, because of uncertainties in the crustal and upper mantle density models. Our second aim is to estimate the effects on geophysical models, which assume isostatic equilibrium, after correcting the observed gravity field with numerical models for GIA. We show that correcting for GIA in geophysical modelling can give changes of several km in the thickness of structural layers of modeled lithosphere, which is a small but significant correction. Correcting the gravity field for GIA prior to assuming isostatic equilibrium and inferring density anomalies might be relevant in other areas with ongoing post-glacial rebound such as North America and the polar regions.

Description: Large variability of earthquake stress drops and scaled energy has been commonly reported in the literature, but it is difficult to assess how much of this variability is caused by underlying physical source processes rather than simply observational uncertainties. Here, we examine a variety of dynamically realistic rupture scenarios for circular and elliptical faults and investigate to what extent the variability in seismically estimated stress drops and scaled energy comes from differences in source geometry, rupture directivity, and rupture speeds. We numerically simulate earthquake source scenarios using a cohesive-zone model with the small-scale yielding limit, where the solution approaches a singular crack model with spontaneous healing of slip. Compared to symmetrical circular source models, asymmetrical models result in larger variability of estimated corner frequencies and scaled energy over the focal sphere. The general behavior of the spherical averages of corner frequencies and scaled energy in the subshear regime extends to the supershear regime, although shear Mach waves generated by the propagation of supershear rupture lead to much higher corner-frequency and scaled-energy estimates locally. Our results suggest that at least a factor of two difference in the spherical average of corner frequencies is expected in observational studies simply from variability in source characteristics almost independent of the actual stress drops, translating into a factor ofeight difference in estimated stress drops. Furthermore, radiation efficiency estimates derived from observed seismic spectra should not be directly interpreted as describing rupture properties unless there are independent constraints on rupture speed and geometry.

Description: To better constrain the mechanical behavior of sediments accreted to accretionary prism, we conducted triaxial mechanical tests on natural samples from the Miura-Boso paleo-accretionary prism (Japan) in drained conditions with confining pressures up to 200 MPa as well as post-experiments P-wave velocity (V p ) measurements. During experiments, deformation is principally non-coaxial and accommodated by two successive modes of deformation, both associated with strain-hardening and velocity-strengthening behavior: (1) compaction-assisted shearing, distributed in a several mm-wide shear zone and (2) faulting, localized within a few tens of µm-wide, dilatant fault zone. Deformation is also associated with (1) a decrease in Young's modulus all over the tests, (2) anomalously low V p in the deformed samples compared to their porosity and (3) an increase in sensitivity of V p to effective pressure. We interpret this evolution of the poroelastic properties of the material as reflecting the progressive breakage of intergrain cement and the formation of microcracks along with macroscopic deformation. When applied to natural conditions, these results suggest that the deformation style (localized vs distributed) of shallow (z 〈 a few km) sediments is mainly controlled by the variations in stress/strain rate during the seismic cycle and is therefore independent of the porosity of sediments. Finally, we show that the effect of strain, through cement breakage and microcracks formation, may lower V p for effective pressure up to 40 MPa. As a consequence, the low V p anomalies observed in Nankai accretionary prisms by seismic imaging between 2 and 4km depth [ Kitajima and Saffer , 2012] could reflect sediment deformation rather than porosity anomalies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: This study presents a new thermodynamic model for the calculation of phase relations during the melting of anhydrous spinel lherzolite at pressures of 1–2.5 GPa. The model is based on the total energy minimization algorithm for calculating phase equilibria within multicomponent systems and the thermodynamic configuration of Ueki and Iwamori [2013]. The model is based on a SiO 2 – Al 2 O 3 – FeO–Fe 3 O 4 –MgO–CaO system that includes silicate melt, olivine, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, and spinel as possible phases. The molar Gibbs free energy of the melt phase is modeled quasi-empirically, and the thermodynamic parameters for silicate melt end-member components are calibrated with a polybaric calibration database. The temperatures and pressures used in this newly compiled calibration dataset are 1230–1600 ∘ C and 0.9–3 GPa, corresponding to the stability range of spinel lherzolite. The modeling undertaken during this study reproduces the general features of experimentally determined melting phase relations of spinel lherzolite at 1–2.5 GPa, including the solidus temperature, the melt composition, the chemical reaction during melting and the degree of melting. This new thermodynamic modeling also reproduces phase relations of various bulk compositions from fertile to deplete spinel lherzolite and can be used in the modeling of polybaric mantle melting within various natural settings. Comparing the results derived from this new modeling with those produced using previous models indicates that the new approach outlined here, involving a combination of total energy minimization and the direct calibration of melt thermodynamic parameters at pressure and temperature conditions corresponding to mantle melting with a relatively simple melt thermodynamic equation, can accurately model polybaric melting phase relations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Petrophysical properties of rocks and their applicability at larger scale are a challenging topic in Earth sciences. Petrophysical properties of rocks are severely affected by: boundary conditions, rock fabric/microstructure, and tectonics that require a multi-scale approach to be properly defined. Here we: (1) report laboratory measurements of density, porosity, permeability and P-wave velocities at increasing confining pressure conducted on Miocene foredeep sandstones (Frosinone Fm.); (2) compare the laboratory results with larger-scale geophysical investigations; (3) discuss the effect of thrusting on the properties of sandstones. At ambient pressure, laboratory porosity varied from 2.2% to 13.8% and P-wave velocities (Vp) from 1.5 km/s to 2.7 km/s. The P-wave velocity increased with confining pressure, reaching between 3.3 km/s to 4.7 km/s at 100 MPa. In situ Vp profiles, measured using sonic logs, matched the ultrasonic laboratory measurement well. The permeability varied between 1.4 × 10 -15  m 2 to 3.9 × 10 -15  m 2 and was positively correlated with porosity. The porosity and permeability of samples taken at various distances to the Olevano-Antrodoco fault plane progressively decreased with distance while P-wave velocity increased. At about 1 km from the fault plane, the relative variations reached 43%, 65% and 20% for porosity, permeability and P-wave velocity, respectively. This suggests that tectonic loading changed the petrophysical properties inherited from sedimentation and diagenesis. Using field constraints and assuming overburden-related inelastic compaction in the proximity of the fault plane, we conclude that the fault reached the mechanical condition for rupture in compression at differential stress of 64.8 MPa at a depth of 1500 m.

Description: In a subduction system the force and the energy required to deform the overriding plate are generally thought to come from the negative buoyancy of the subducted slab and its potential energy, respectively. Such deformation might involve extension and backarc basin formation, or shortening and mountain building. How much of the slab's potential energy is consumed during overriding plate deformation remains unknown. In this work, we present dynamic three-dimensional laboratory experiments of progressive subduction with an overriding plate to quantify the force ( F OPD ) that drives overriding plate deformation and the associated energy dissipation rate (Φ OPD ), and we compare them with the negative buoyancy ( F BU ) of the subducted slab and its total potential energy release rate (Φ BU ), respectively. We varied the viscosity ratio between the plates and the sub-lithospheric upper mantle with η SP /η UM  = 157-560, and the thickness of the overriding plate with T OP  = 0.5-2.5 cm (scaling to 25-125 km in nature). The results show that F OPD / F BU has average values of 0.5-2.0%, with a maximum of 5.3% and Φ OPD /Φ BU has average values of 0.05-0.30%, with a maximum of 0.41%. The results indicate that only a small portion of the negative buoyancy of the slab and its potential energy are used to deform the overriding plate. Our models also suggest that the force required to deform the overriding plate is of comparable magnitude to the ridge push force. Furthermore, we show that in subduction models with an overriding plate bending dissipation at the subduction zone hinge remains low (3-15% during steady-state subduction).

Description: We investigated the influence of earthquake source complexity on the extent of inundation caused by the resulting tsunami. We simulated 100 scenarios with collocated sources of variable slip on the Hikurangi subduction-interface in the vicinity of Hawke's Bay and Poverty Bay in New Zealand and investigated the tsunami effects on the cities of Napier and Gisborne. Rupture complexity was found to have a first order effect on flow depth and inundation extent for local tsunami sources. The position of individual asperities in the slip distribution on the rupture interface control to some extent how severe inundation will be. However, predicting inundation extent in detail from investigating the distribution of slip on the rupture interface proves difficult. Assuming uniform slip on the rupture interface in tsunami models can underestimate the potential impact and extent of inundation. For example, simulation of an M W 8.7 to M W 8.8 earthquake with uniform slip reproduced the area that could potentially be inundated by equivalent non-uniform slip events of M W 8.4. De-aggregation, to establish the contribution of different sources with different slip distributions to the probabilistic hazard, cannot be performed based on magnitude considerations alone. We propose two predictors for inundation severity based on the offshore tsunami wave field using the linear wave equations in an attempt to keep costly simulations of full inundation to a minimum.

Description: Teleseismic transfer function analysis is used to investigate crust and upper mantle velocity structure in the vicinity of the active eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ). The ETSZ is associated with the New York – Alabama (NY-AL) magnetic lineament, a prominent aeromagnetic anomaly indicative of Grenville-age, basement structure. Radial component, P-wave transfer functions for ten short-period stations operated by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) are inverted for velocity structure. Velocity profiles are also determined for three broadband stations by converting the instrument response to that of an S-13 short-period seismometer. Distinct differences in the velocity profiles are found for stations located on either side of the NY-AL magnetic lineament; velocities west of the lineament are lower than velocities to the east of the lineament in the upper 10 km and in the depth range 30 to 50 km. A gradational Moho boundary is found beneath several stations located in the Valley and Ridge province. A Moho boundary is absent at four Valley and Ridge stations located east of the magnetic lineament and south of 35.5°N.

Description: This integrated study provides significant insight into parameters controlling the acoustic and reservoir properties of microporous limestones, improving the knowledge of the relationships among petrophysic and microstructural content. Petrophysical properties measured from laboratory and logging tools (porosity, permeability, electrical conductivity and acoustic properties) have been coupled with thin section and SEM observations on the EST205 borehole from the Oxfordian limestone aquifer of the Eastern part of the Paris Basin. A major achievement is the establishment of the link between micrite microtexture types (particle morphology and nature of inter-crystal contacts) and the physical response, introducing a new effective and interesting rock-typing approach for microporous reservoirs. Fluid-flow properties are enhanced by the progressive augmentation of intercrystalline microporosity and associated pore throat diameter, as the coalescence of micrite particles decreases. Concerning acoustic properties, the slow increase of P-wave velocity can be seen as a reflection of crystal size and growing contact cementation leading to a more cohesive and stiffer micrite microtexture. By applying poroelasticity theory on our samples, we show that velocity dispersion can be a very useful tool for data discrimination in carbonates. This dispersion analysis highlights the presence of microcracks in the rocks, and their overall effect on acoustic and transport properties. The presence of microcracks is also confirmed with observations and permeability measurements under high confining pressure. Finally, a possible origin of high porous levels in neritic limestones is a mineralogical transformation of carbonates through freshwater-related diagenesis during subaerial exposure time. Finally, by applying poroelasticity theory on our samples, we show that velocity dispersion can be a very useful tool for data discrimination in carbonates.

Description: The “local porosity theory” proposed by Hilfer was revisited to develop a “local clay theory” (LCT) that establishes a quantitative relationship between the effective electrical conductivity and clay distribution in clay-rocks. This theory is primarily based on a “local simplicity” assumption; under this assumption, the complexity of spatial clay distribution can be captured by two local functions, namely, the local clay distribution and the local percolation probability, which are calculated from a partitioning of a mineral map. The local clay distribution provides information about spatial clay fluctuations and the local percolation probability describes the spatial fluctuations in the clay connectivity. This LCT was applied to (a) a mineral map made from a Callovo-Oxfordian mudstone sample and (b) (macroscopic) electrical conductivity measurements performed on the same sample. The direct and inverse modeling show two results. First, the textural and classical model assuming that the electrical anisotropy of clay-rock is mainly controlled by the anisotropy of the sole clay matrix provides inconsistent inverted values. An other textural effect, the anisotropy induced by elongated and oriented non-clayey grains, should be considered. Second, the effective conductivity values depend primarily on the choice of the inclusion-based models used in the LCT. The impact of local fluctuations of clay content and connectivity on the calculated effective conductivity is lower.

Description: Volcanic ash is often deposited in a hot state. Volcanic ash containing glass, deposited above the glass transition interval, has the potential to sinter viscously both to itself (particle-particle) and to exposed surfaces. Here, we constrain the kinetics of this process experimentally under non-isothermal conditions using standard glasses. In the absence of external load, this process is dominantly driven by surface relaxation. In such cases the sintering process is rate-limited by the melt viscosity, the size of the particles and the melt-vapour interfacial tension. We propose a polydisperse continuum model that describes the transition from a packing of particles to a dense pore-free melt and evaluate its efficacy in describing the kinetics of volcanic viscous sintering. We apply our model to viscous sintering scenarios for cooling crystal-poor rhyolitic ash using the 2008 eruption of Chaitén volcano as a case example. We predict that moderate linear cooling rates of 〉10 -1  °C.min -1 can result in the common observation of incomplete sintering and the preservation of pore networks.

Description: Knowledge on the behavior of Mg isotopes during metamorphic dehydration is the prerequisite for applying Mg isotopes as tracers for crustal recycling. Here, we report Mg isotopic compositions of metapelites from the Onawa contact aureole, Maine. Except one sample, all metapelites across the aureole, from the wall-rock regional metamorphic rocks to the partially melted rocks adjacent to the pluton, have similar Mg isotopic compositions (δ 26 Mg = -0.09 to +0.12‰). This observation indicates limited Mg isotope fractionation during metamorphic dehydration and fluid-rock interaction, due to the low Mg concentration in fluids relative to rocks. Our results suggest that Mg isotopic compositions of metapelites can record those of their protoliths and, hence, recycled clastic sedimentary materials may preserve their low-temperature Mg isotopic signatures through subduction zones. Therefore, Mg isotopes may serve as new tracers for crustal recycling, for example, tracing components experienced weathering cycles within granite sources.

Description: [1]  We analyse 1980-2010 ground displacements, to discern similarities or differences between Campi Flegrei (CF) inflations and deflations and highlight possible anomalies in particular areas. We show that the deformation pattern can be decomposed into two stationary (constant over time, except for a mere scaling factor) parts; both of them are satisfied by simple deformation sources. A quasi-horizontal elongated crack (oriented NW to SE, and embedded in an elastic layered half-space at a depth of about 3600 m) satisfies large-scale deformation. All source parameters but potency (volume change) are constant over time. Residual deformation is confined to the area of the Solfatara fumarolic field and satisfied by a small spheroid located at about 1900 m in depth. Again, all source parameters but potency are constant over time. The histories of the two sources are somewhat similar but not equal, supporting the existence of a genuine local deformation source at Solfatara against the emergence of a mere distortion of large-scale deformation. Although reality is probably much more complex, our simple model explains 1980-2010 CF deformation within ground-displacement data errors, and is consistent with Solfatara geochemical conceptual models, fumarolic geochemical data, and seismic attenuation imaging of CF. The observation that the CF deformation pattern can be decomposed into two stationary parts is hardly compatible with several recent works which proposed multiple sources with different features acting in different periods, fluid injections implying ample changes of large-scale deformation pattern over time, complex spatial and temporal patterns of distributions of volumetric sources.

Description: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive model-based analysis of a uranyl [U(VI)] tracer test conducted at the U.S. DOE Hanford 300 Area (300A) IFRC. Despite the highly complex field conditions the numerical three-dimensional multi-component reactive transport model was able to capture most of the spatiotemporal variations of the observed U(VI) concentrations. A multi-model analysis was performed to interrogate the relative importance of various processes and factors for controlling field-scale reactive transport during the uranyl tracer test. The results indicate that multi-rate sorption/desorption, surface complexation reactions, and initial concentrations were the most important processes and factors controlling U(VI) migration. On the other hand, cation exchange reactions, the choice of the surface complexation model, and dual-domain mass transfer processes played less important roles under the prevailing field-test condition. Further analysis of the modeling results demonstrates that these findings are conditioned to the relatively stable groundwater chemistry and the selected length of the field experimental duration (16 days). The model analysis also revealed the crucial role of the intraborehole flow that occurred within the long-screened monitoring wells and thus affected both field measurements and simulated U(VI) concentrations as a combined effect of aquifer heterogeneity and dynamic flow conditions. This study provides the first highly data-constrained uranium transport simulations under highly dynamic flow conditions. It illustrates the value of reactive transport modeling for elucidating the relative importance of individual processes in controlling uranium transport under specific field-scale conditions.

Description: The dynamics of drying processes from porous media are critically influenced by the intensity of an adjacent free flow and by processes at the interface between free flow and the porous medium. In this paper, the influence of hydraulic properties of a porous medium and of the interaction between fluids and porous medium on the drying dynamics during the capillary-flow dominated stage-1 and transition to the diffusion-dominated stage-2 are studied using a coupled free-flow - porous-medium flow model on the REV scale. We present a detailed model concept that considers mass balance equations, an energy balance equation and the coupling to the adjacent free flow. Key microscale processes are identified and incorporated in the macroscale description of the evaporation process. Own experimental results are used to illustrate main features of the modeling framework. We demonstrate that the use of a homogeneous distribution of soil parameters without consideration of pore-scale induced nonlinearities in the numerical simulations results in a rather constant drying rate in stage-1, which was not observed for the high evaporative demand in the experiments. To account for the dependency of the drying rate on the surface moisture content, special conditions based on the work of Haghighi et al. [2013] and Schlünder [1988] are analyzed for their applicability on the REV scale. Typical features of a drying process, such as different stages of the drying rate, could be reproduced.

Description: Making useful predictions in ungauged basins is an incredibly difficult task given the limitations of hydrologic models to represent physical processes appropriately across the heterogeneity within and among different catchments. Here, we introduce a new method for this challenge, Bayes empirical Bayes, that allows for the statistical pooling of information from multiple donor catchments and provides the ability to transfer parametric distributions rather than single parameter sets to the ungauged catchment. Further, the methodology provides an efficient framework with which to formally assess predictive uncertainty at the ungauged catchment. We investigated the utility of the methodology under both synthetic and real data conditions, and with respect to its sensitivity to the number and quality of the donor catchments used. This study highlighted the ability of the hierarchical Bayes empirical Bayes approach to produce expected outcomes in both the synthetic and real data applications. The method was found to be sensitive to the quality (hydrologic similarity) of the donor catchments used. Results were less sensitive to the number of donor catchments, but indicated that predictive uncertainty was best constrained with larger numbers of donor catchments (but still adequate with fewer donors)

Description: Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern USA due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flowpaths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied 1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; 2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and 3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during baseflow and stormflow events of autumn. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 μmol L -1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn baseflow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with assimilatory nitrate uptake was a primary factor in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25 fold. In the ensuing weeks, stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely-spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for non-snowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. The large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, baseflow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for two months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in baseflow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Description: During the recent years there has been an increasing interest in multivariate frequency analysis of hydrological variables, e.g. those describing extreme events like rainfall, floods or droughts. The multivariate analysis provides a better understanding of the phenomena under investigation and an additional insight about the interrelationships between the different variables (e.g. peak, volume and duration of the flood), exploiting the complete structure of the problem and making a full use of the available data. However, while the developments on multivariate analysis of hydrological data has produced a large body of literature, a clear assessment of the use of these methods in the design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures is still a matter of debate. In the present work we illustrate a general, structure-based framework for the design and/or risk assessment of hydraulic structures in a bivariate environment; we also compare it to recently proposed methods which are based on the assumption of hydrological design events (as is customary in the univariate context). For illustration purposes, both the structure-based and the design event-based approaches are applied to the design of an idealized structure, thus exploring the differences among the methods as function of the parameters involved. Our work highlights that the return period of structure failure in a multivariate environment strictly depends on the particular structure under design, and in most cases the design of an hydraulic structure cannot be based on a single, hydrological multivariate design event. This acts as a warning for practitioners against the use of design methods based on single hydrological events, as usually done in the context of univariate hydrology, thus neglecting the interplay between the structure and the hydrological loads acting on it.

Description: [1]  Detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P - and S -wave attenuation ( Qp and Qs ) models of the crust and upper mantle under the entire Northeast Japan (Tohoku) arc from the Japan Trench to the Japan Sea coast are determined, for the first time, using a large number of high-quality t * data measured precisely from P - and S -wave spectra of local earthquakes. The suboceanic earthquakes used in this work are relocated precisely using sP depth phases. Our results reveal a prominent landward dipping high- Q zone representing the subducting Pacific slab, a landward dipping intermediate to high Q zone in the mantle wedge between the Pacific coast and the volcanic front, and significant low- Q anomalies in the crust and mantle wedge between the volcanic front and the Japan Sea coast. Prominent high- Q patches surrounded by low- Q anomalies are revealed in the interplate megathrust zone under the Tohoku forearc where the great 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake ( Mw 9.0) occurred. The high- Q patches in the megathrust zone generally exhibit large coseismic slips of megathrust earthquakes and large slip deficit on the plate interface. We think that these high- Q patches represent asperities in the megathrust zone, whereas the low- Q anomalies reflect weakly coupled areas. We also find that the hypocenters of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and its large foreshock ( Mw 7.3) and two large megathrust aftershocks ( Mw 7.4, 7.7) are located in areas where Qp , Qs and Qp / Qs change abruptly. These results suggest that structural heterogeneities in the megathrust zone control the interplate seismic coupling and the nucleation of megathrust earthquakes.

Description: Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, VIC, and SAC in NLDAS-2, two remote sensing-based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE-inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux-based approach or TWSA from a storage-based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid – arid) in the South Central US as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET (~5 mm/month), moderate in MODIS- or AVHRR-based ET (10 – 15 mm/month), and highest in GRACE-inferred ET (20 – 30 mm/month). There is a tradeoff between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser-resolution LSM ET (~14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer-resolution (~ 1 ‒ 8 km) RS ET. Root-mean-square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE-derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite-based products to constrain uncertainties.

Description: It is well documented that deforestation results in an increase in landslide frequency due to the control that forest roots have on slope stability. The loss of forest vegetation leads to a reduction in soil cohesion and a decrease in the shear strength of the soil profile. As a result, the slope becomes more susceptible to landsliding and the return time of landslides decreases. When a landslide removes the soil profile, there may not be adequate time for seedlings to grow and enhance soil stability. In this study, we investigate whether bistable dynamics emerge from the interaction of forest vegetation with the formation and accumulation of colluvial deposits in soil-mantled landscapes. To that end, we develop deterministic and stochastic models of landslide occurrence with a dynamic vegetation component. Results show that bistability exists for the deterministic case for both steep and shallow hollows under event and supply limited conditions. However, for the stochastic case, the randomness of landslide occurrence largely changed the states of the system such that the system only exhibited one stable state, which was the fully vegetated condition. Examining different management practices under stochastic conditions showed that the system eventually recovered; however, management practices influenced the recovery time of the forest. Thus, different management practices could render the land in a state of low vegetation over economically significant time periods.

Description: Seepage flux from ephemeral streams can be an important component of the water balance in arid and semi-arid regions. An emerging technique for quantifying this flux involves the measurement and simulation of a flood wave as it moves along an initially dry channel. This study investigates the usefulness of including surface water and groundwater data to improve model calibration when using this technique. We trialed this approach using a controlled flow event along a 1387 m reach of artificial stream channel. Observations were then simulated using a numerical model that combines the diffusion wave approximation of the Saint-Vénant equations for streamflow routing, with Philips’ infiltration equation and the groundwater flow equation. Model estimates of seepage flux for the upstream segments of the study reach, where streambed hydraulic conductivities were approximately 10 1 m d -1 , were on the order of 10 -4 m 3 d -1 m -2 . In the downstream segments, streambed hydraulic conductivities were generally much lower but highly variable (~10 -3 – 10 -7 m d -1 ). The Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showed that the flood front timing, surface water stage, groundwater heads and the predicted stream flow seepage were most influenced by specific yield. Furthermore, inclusion of groundwater data resulted in a higher estimate of total seepage estimates than if the flood front timing were used alone.

Description: Magnetic anomaly identifications underpin plate tectonic reconstructions and form the primary dataset from which age of the oceanic lithosphere and seafloor spreading regimes in the ocean basins can be determined. Although these identifications are an invaluable resource, their usefulness to the wider scientific community has been limited due to the lack of a central community infrastructure to organize, host and update these interpretations. We have developed an open-source, community-driven online infrastructure as a repository for quality-checked magnetic anomaly identifications from all ocean basins. We provide a global sample dataset that comprises 96,733 individually picked magnetic anomaly identifications organized by ocean basin and publication reference, and provide accompanying Hellinger-format files, where available. Our infrastructure is designed to facilitate research in plate tectonic reconstructions or research that relies on an assessment of plate reconstructions, for both experts and non-experts alike. To further enhance the existing repository and strengthen its value, we encourage others in the community to contribute to this effort.

Description: We present a probabilistic sediment cascade model to simulate sediment transfer in a mountain basin (Illgraben, Switzerland) where sediment is produced by hillslope landslides and rockfalls and exported out of the basin by debris flows and floods. The model conceptualizes the fluvial system as a spatially lumped cascade of connected reservoirs representing hillslope and channel storages where sediment goes through cycles of storage and remobilization by surface runoff. The model includes all relevant hydrological processes that lead to runoff formation in an Alpine basin, such as precipitation, snow accumulation, snow melt, evapotranspiration, and soil water storage. Although the processes of sediment transfer and debris flow generation are described in a simplified manner, the model produces complex sediment discharge behavior which is driven by the availability of sediment and antecedent wetness conditions (system memory) as well as the triggering potential (climatic forcing). The observed probability distribution of debris flow volumes and their seasonality in 2000-2009 are reproduced. The stochasticity of hillslope sediment input is important for reproducing realistic sediment storage variability, although many details of the hillslope landslide triggering procedures are filtered out by the sediment transfer system. The model allows us to explicitly quantify the division into transport and supply-limited sediment discharge events. We show that debris flows may be generated for a wide range of rainfall intensities because of variable antecedent basin wetness and snowmelt contribution to runoff, which helps to understand the limitations of methods based on a single rainfall threshold for debris flow initiation in Alpine basins.

Description: [1]  We detected 32,078 very small, local microearthquakes (average M L  = -1) during a 9-month deployment of five ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) on the periphery of the Trans-Atlantic Geotraverse (TAG) active mound. Seismicity rates were constant without any mainshock-aftershock behavior at ~243 events per day at the beginning of the experiment, 128 events per day after an instrument failed, and 97 events per day at the end of the experiment when whale calls increased background noise levels. The microearthquake seismograms are characterized by durations of 〈1 second and most have single-phase P -wave arrivals (i.e., no S -arrivals). We accurately located 6,207 of the earthquakes, with hypocenters clustered within a narrow depth interval from ~50-125 mbsf on the south and west flanks of the deposit. We model the microearthquakes as reaction-driven fracturing events caused by anhydrite deposition in the secondary circulation system of the hydrothermal mound, and show that under reasonable modeling assumptions an average event represents a volume increase of 31-58 cm 3 , yielding an annual (seismogenic) anhydrite deposition rate of 27-51 m 3 .

Description: [1]  Acoustic velocity measurements were conducted during triaxial deformation tests of silty clay and clayey silt core samples from the Nankai subduction zone (IODP Expeditions 315, 316 and 333). We provide a new set of sonic wave velocity data, continuously measured during pressure increase and subsequent axial deformation. A new processing method for the experimental data was developed using seismic time series analysis. The results show that the identification of first arrivals by manual trace-by-trace picking alone can be erroneous. During axial deformation compressional wave velocities (Vp) range between about 1300 - 2200 m/s, and shear wave velocities (Vs) range between about 150 - 800 m/s. Vp slightly increases with rising effective confining pressure and effective axial stress. Samples from the accretionary prism toe show the highest Vp, while those from the forearc slope sediments show somewhat lower Vp. The samples from the incoming plate are slightly richer in clay minerals, and have the lowest values for Vp. Vs increases with higher effective confining pressures and effective axial stress, irrespective of composition and tectonic setting. Shear and bulk moduli, calculated from sonic velocities are in the range between 0.2 and 1.3 GPa and 3.85 and 8.41 GPa, respectively. The elastic moduli of the samples from the accretionary prism toe and the footwall of the megasplay fault ranging between 1.50 and 3.98 GPa are higher compared to those from the hanging wall samples and the incoming plate samples ranging between 0.59 and 0.88 Gpa. Thus, they allow differentiation between normal and over-consolidated sediments. The data show that in a tectono-sedimentary environment of only subtle compositional differences, the acoustic properties can be used to differentiate between stronger (accretionary prism toe) and weaker (forearc slope, incoming plate) sediments. Especially the Vp/Vs ratio may be instrumental in detecting zones of low effective stress and thus high pore fluid pressure.

Description: [1]  Studies of the petrology, mineral chemistry and rock-magnetic properties of nine pyroxenite xenoliths from Hannuoba basalts, northern North China Craton, have been made to determine the magnetization signature of the continental lower crust. These pyroxenites are weakly magnetic with low average susceptibility ( χ ) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization ( M rs ) of 39.59 × 10 -8  m 3  kg -1 and 12.05 × 10 -3 Am 2 kg -1 , respectively. The magnetic minerals are mainly magnetite, pyrrhotite and Fe-rich spinel, which significantly contribute to χ and natural remanent magnetization. Magnetite occurs as interstitial micro-crystals together with zeolite aggregates, indicating a secondary origin in a supergene environment. In contrast, pyrrhotite and Fe-rich spinel were formed prior to the xenoliths’ ascent to the surface, as evidenced by their dominant occurrence as tiny inclusions and thin exsolution lamellae in pyroxene. The Fe-rich spinel has ~ 50% mole-fraction of Fe 3 O 4 and corresponds to the strongest magnetization, and its coexistence with Mg-rich spinel implies a reheating event due to the underplating of basaltic magma. Besides, armalcolite and ilmenite were found in the reaction rims between xenoliths and the basalt, but they contribute little to the whole rock magnetization. However, these pyroxenite xenoliths would be non-magnetic at in situ depths, as well as peridotite and mafic granulite xenoliths derived from the crust-mantle transition zone (~ 32-42 km). Therefore, we suggest the limiting depth of magnetization at the boundary between weakly magnetic deep-seated (lower crust and upper mantle) xenoliths and strongly magnetic Archean granulite facies rocks (~ 32 km) in Hannuoba, northern North China Craton.

Description: Characterizing the complex geometries and the heterogeneity of the deposits in meandering river systems is a long-standing issue for the 3D modeling of alluvial formations. Such deposits are important sources of accessible groundwater in alluvial aquifers throughout the world and also play a major role as hydrocarbons reservoirs. In this paper we present a method to generate meandering river centerlines that are stochastic, geologically realistic, connected and conditioned to local observations or global geomorphological characteristics. The method is based on fast 1D multiple-point statistics in a transformed curvilinear domain: the succession in directions observed in a real world meandering river (the analog) is considered as statistical model for multiple-point statistics simulation. The integration of local data is accomplished by an inverse procedure ensuring that the channels pass through a given set of locations while conserving the high-order spatial characteristics of an analog. The methodology is applied on seven real world case studies. This work demonstrates the flexibility and the applicability of multiple-point statistics outside the standard paradigm that considers the simulation of a 2D or 3D variable with spatial coordinates.

Description: Large asymmetric bedforms commonly develop in rivers. The turbulence associated with flow separation that develops over their steep lee side is responsible for the form shear stress which can represent a substantial part of total shear stress in rivers. This paper uses the Delft3D modeling system to investigate the effects of bedform geometry and forcing conditions on flow separation length and associated turbulence, and bedform shear stress over angle-of-repose (30° lee side angle) bedforms. The model was validated with laboratory measurements that showed sufficient agreement to be used for a systematic analysis. The influence of flow velocity, bed roughness, relative height (bedform height / water depth) and aspect ratio (bedform height / length) on the variations of the normalized length of the flow separation zone, the extent of the wake region (where the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was more than 70% of the maximum TKE), the average TKE within the wake region and the form shear stress were investigated. Form shear stress was found not to scale with the size of the flow separation zone but to be related to the product of the normalized extent of the wake region (extent of the wake region / extent of water body above the bedform) and the average TKE within the wake region. The results add to understanding of the hydrodynamics of bedforms and may be used for the development of better parameterizations of small-scale processes for application in large-scale studies.

Description: We explore the bankfull width ( W bf ) vs. drainage area ( A da ) relationship across a range of climatic and geologic environments, and ask (1) is the relationship between ln ( W bf ) and ln ( A da ) best described by a linear function and (2) can a reliable relationship be developed for predicting W bf with A da as the only independent variable. The principal dataset for this study was compiled from regional curve studies and other reports that represent 1,018 sites (1 m ≤ W bf ≤ 110 m and 0.50 km 2 ≤ A da ≤ 22,000 km 2 ) in the continental U.S. Two additional datasets were used for validation. After dividing the data into small-, medium-, and large-size basins which, respectfully, correspond to A da 〈 4.95 km 2 , 4.95 km 2 ≤ A da 〈 337 km 2 , and A da ≥ 337 km 2 , regression lines from each dataset were compared using one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A second ANCOVA was performed to determine if mean annual precipitation ( P ) is an extraneous factor in the W bf vs. A da relationship. The ANCOVA results reveal that using A da alone does not yield a reliable W bf vs. A da relationship that is applicable across a wide range of environments and that P is a significant extraneous factor in the relationship. Considering data for very small basins ( A da ≤ 0.49 km 2 ) and very large basins ( A da ≥ 1.0×10 5 km 2 ) we conclude that a two-segment linear model is the most probable form of the ln ( W bf ) vs. ln ( A da ) relationship. This study provides useful information for building complex multivariate models for predicting W bf .

Description: [1]  The shallow velocity structure of the Lucky Strike segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is investigated using seismic refraction and reflection techniques applied to downward continued multi-channel streamer data. We present a three-dimensional velocity model beneath the Lucky Strike Volcano with unprecedented spatial resolutions of a few hundred meters. These new constraints reveal large lateral variations in P-wave velocity structure beneath this feature. Throughout the study area, uppermost crustal velocities are significantly lower than those inferred from lower-resolution OBS studies, with the lowest values (1.8-2.2 km/s) found beneath the three central volcanic cones. Within the central volcano, distinct shallow units are mapped that likely represent a systematic process such as burial of older weathered surfaces. We infer that the entire upper part of the central volcano is young relative to the underlying median valley floor and that there has been little increase in the layer 2A velocities since emplacement. Layer 2A thins significantly across the axial valley bounding faults likely as the result of footwall uplift. The upper crustal velocities increase with age, on average, at a rate of ~0.875 km/s/Myr, similar to previous measurements at fast spreading ridges, suggesting hydrothermal sealing of small scale porosity is progressing at normal to enhanced rates.

Description: We present an efficient method for high-volume heavy mineral separation from clay-rich rocks using an ultrasonic probe. The ultrasonic clay separator (UCS) is an easily constructed device that allows for the recovery of high-density minerals, as small as 10 microns, with a minimum of sample preparation. Heavy mineral recovery from clay-rich material with the UCS yields a greater number of small (〈100 micron) grains and approximately double the amount of material from that of gravity settling and decanting. Despite development with heavy mineral recovery in mind, the UCS should suitable for recovering small grain size geologic materials from flocculating clay-rich material.

Description: Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce the input uncertainty first by combining climate models and then use the multimodel climate forecasts with multiple watershed models (MM-P) (2) ingest the individual climate forecasts (without multimodel combination) with various watershed models and then combine the streamflow predictions that arise from all possible combinations of climate and watershed models (MM-Q)(3) combine the streamflow forecasts obtained from multiple watershed models based on strategy (1) to develop a single streamflow prediction that reduces uncertainty in both climate forecasts and watershed models (MM-PQ) . For this purpose, we consider synthetic schemes that generate streamflow and climate forecasts, for comparing the performance of three strategies with the true streamflow generated by a given hydrologic model. Results from the synthetic study show that reducing input uncertainty first ( MM-P ) by combining climate forecasts results in reduced error in predicting the true streamflow compared to the error of multimodel streamflow forecasts obtained by combining streamflow forecasts from all-possible combination of individual climate model with various hydrologic models ( MM-Q ). Since the true hydrologic model structure is unknown, it is desirable to consider MM-PQ as an alternate choice that reduces both input uncertainty and hydrologic model uncertainty. Application on two watersheds in NC also indicates that reducing the input uncertainty first is critical before reducing the hydrologic model uncertainty.

Description: The understanding of reasons leading to non-uniqueness of soil erosion susceptibility is still inadequate, yet indispensable for establishing general relations between runoff volume and sediment yield. To obtain relevant insights, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic model using synthetic storms of varying intensity, duration, and lag time between events as representations of different hydrologic response conditions in a zero-order catchment. The design targeted to generate surface flow and ‘perturb’ soil substrate by a first rainfall event, creating a set of initial conditions in terms of flow and deposited sediment prior to the onset of a subsequent rainfall event. Due to the differential effect of (re)detachment and (re)entrainment processes on soil particles of varying sizes, the deposited sediment mass formed shielding layer. One of the essential results is that unless the initial condition of flow and sediment is identical, the same volume of runoff can generate different total sediment yields and their variation can reach up to ~200%. The effect is attributed to two major conflicting effects exerted by the deposited ‘initialization’ (soil antecedent condition) sediment mass: erosion enhancement, because of supply of highly erodible sediment, and erosion impediment, because of constrain on the availability of lighter particles by heavier sediment. Consistently with this inference, long-term simulations with continuous rainfall show that a peculiar feature of sediment yield series is the existence of maximum before the steady-state is reached. The two characteristic time scales, the time to peak and the time to steady-state, separate three characteristic periods that correspond to flow-limited, source-limited, and steady-state regimes. These time scales are log-linearly and negatively related to the spatially averaged Shields parameter: the smaller the rainfall input and the heavier a given particle is, the larger the two scales are. The results provide insights on how the existence of shield operates on erosion processes, possibly implying that accurate short-term predictions of geomorphic events from headwater areas may never become a tractable problem: the latter would require a detailed spatial characterization of particle size distribution prior to precipitation events.

Description: [1]  High quality streaming potential coupling coefficient measurements have been carried out using a newly designed cell with both a steady-state methodology and a new pressure transient approach. The pressure transient approach has shown itself to be particularly good at providing high quality streaming potential coefficient measurements as each transient increase or decrease allows thousands of measurements to be made at different pressures to which a good linear regression can be fitted. Nevertheless, the transient method can be up to five times as fast as the conventional measurement approaches because data from all flow rates are taken in the same transient measurement rather than separately. Test measurements have been made on samples of Berea and Boise sandstone as a function of salinity (approximately 18 salinities between 10-5 mol/dm3 and 2 mol/dm3). The data have also been inverted to obtain the zeta potential. The streaming potential coefficient becomes greater (more negative) for fluids with lower salinities, which is consistent with existing measurements. Our measurements are also consistent with the high salinity streaming potential coefficient measurements made by Vinogradov et al. (2010). Both the streaming potential coefficient and the zeta potential have also been modeled using the theoretical approach of Glover et al. (2012). This modeling allows the microstructural, electrochemical and fluid properties of the saturated rock to be taken into account in order to provide a relationship that is unique to each particular rock sample. In all cases, we found that the experimental data was a good match to the theoretical model.

Description: [1]  The present study, which is a follw-up of the JGR paper by Ji et al. (2013a), provides a new calibration for both seismic and fabric properties of antigorite serpentinites. Comparisons of the laboratory velocities of antigorite serpentinites measured at high pressures with crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) data measured using electron backscatter diffraction (EBCD) techniques demonstrate that seismic anisotropy in high T serpentinite, which is essentially controlled by the antigorite c-axis fabric, is independent on the operating slip system, but strongly dependent on the regime and magnitude of finite strain experienced by the rock. Extrapolation of the experimental data with both pressure and temperature suggests that V p anisotropy decreases but shear wave splitting (Δ V s ) and V p / V s increase with increasing pressure in either cold or hot subduction zones. For a cold, steeply subducting slab, antigorite is most likely deformed by nearly coaxial flattening or trench-parallel movements, forming trench-parallel seismic anisotropy. For a hot, shallowly subducting slab, however, antigorite is most likely deformed by simple shear or transpression. Trench-normal seismic anisotropy can be observed when the subducting dip angle is smaller than 30°. The geophysical characteristics of the Tibetan Plateau such as strong heterogeneity in V p , V s and attenuation, shear wave splitting and electric conductivity may be explained by the presence of strongly deformed serpentinites in lithospheric shear zones reactivated along former suture zones between amalgamated blocks, hydrated zones of subducting lithospheric mantle, and the crust-mantle boundary if the temperature is below 700 °C in the region of interest.

Description: In the detachment mode of slow seafloor spreading, convex-upward detachment faults take up a high proportion of the plate separation velocity exposing gabbro and serpentinized peridotite on the seafloor. Large, long-lived hydrothermal systems such as TAG are situated off-axis and may be controlled by fluid flow up a detachment fault, with the source of magmatic heat being as deep as 7 kmbsf. The consequences of such deep circulation for the evolution of fluid temperature and salinity have not previously been investigated. Microthermometry on fluid inclusions trapped in diabase, gabbro and trondjhemite, recovered at the Atlantis Massif Oceanic Core Complex (30° N, mid-Atlantic Ridge), reveals evidence for magmatic exsolution, phase separation, and mixing between hydrothermal fluids and previously phase separated fluids. Four types of fluid inclusions were identified, ranging in salinity from 1.4 wt.% NaCl to 35 wt.% NaCl, although the most common inclusions have salinities close to seawater (3.4 wt.% NaCl). Homogenization temperatures range from 160 to 〉400 °C, with the highest temperatures in hypersaline inclusions trapped in trondjhemite and the lowest temperatures in low salinity inclusions trapped in quartz veins. The fluid history of the Atlantis Massif is interpreted in the context of published thermochronometric data from the Massif, and a comparison with the inferred circulation pattern beneath the TAG hydrothermal field, to better constrain the pressure temperature conditions of trapping and when in the history of exhumation of the rocks sampled by IODP Hole U1309D fluids have been trapped.

Description: [1]  We explore the concept of maximum possible earthquake magnitude, M , in a region represented by an earthquake catalog from the viewpoint of statistical testing. For this aim, we assume that earthquake magnitudes are independent events that follow a doubly-truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution and focus on the upper truncation M . In earlier work, it has been shown that the value of M cannot be well constrained from earthquake catalogs alone. However, for two hypothesized values M and M ′, alternative statistical tests may address the question: Which value is more consistent with the data? In other words: Is it possible to reject a magnitude within reasonable errors, i.e. the error of the first and the error of the second kind? The results for realistic settings indicate that either the error of the first kind or the error of the second kind is intolerably large. We conclude that it is essentially impossible to infer M in terms of alternative testing with sufficient confidence from an earthquake catalog alone, even in regions like Japan with excellent data availability. These findings are also valid for frequency-magnitude distributions with different tail behavior, e.g. exponential tapering. Finally, we emphasize that different data may only be useful to provide additional constraints for M , if they do not correlate with the earthquake catalog, i.e. if they have not been recorded in the same observational period. In particular, longterm geological assessments might be suitable to reduce the errors, while GPS measurements provide overall the same information as the catalogs.

Description: [1]  We simulated the ascent of bubbly magma in a volcanic conduit by slow decompression experiments using syrup foam as a magma analogue. During decompression, some large voids appear in the foam. The expansion of one void deep in the foam leads to another void expansion, and the void expansion then propagates upward. The void expansion finally reaches the surface of the foam to originate outgassing. The velocity of the upward propagation of void expansions is essentially the same as the rupturing velocity of the bubble film, suggesting that the rupture of films separating each void propagates upward to create the pathway for outgassing. The calculated apparent permeability of decompressed foam can become higher than that measured for natural pumices/scoriae. The upward propagation of film ruptures thus allows for efficient outgassing. This may also appear as the mechanism for energetic gas emissions originating at a depth, such as Strombolian eruptions.

Description: Aquifer hydraulic properties such as hydraulic conductivity ( K ) are ubiquitously heterogeneous and typically only a statistical characterization can be sought. Additionally statistical anisotropy at typical characterization scales is the rule. Thus, regardless of the processes governing solute transport at the local (pore) scale, transport becomes non-Fickian. Mass-transfer models provide an efficient tool that reproduces observed anomalous transport; in some cases though, these models lack predictability as model parameters cannot readily be connected to the physical properties of aquifers. In this study we focus on a multi-rate mass-transfer model (MRMT), and in particular the apparent capacity coefficient (β), which is a strong indicator of the potential of immobile zones to capture moving solute. We aim to find if the choice of an apparent β can be phenomenologically related to measures of statistical anisotropy. We analyzed an ensemble of random simulations of three-dimensional log-transformed multi-Gaussian permeability fields with stationary anisotropic correlation under convergent flow conditions. It was found that apparent β also displays an anisotropic behavior, physically controlled by the aquifer directional connectivity, which in turn is controlled by the anisotropic correlation model. A high hydraulic connectivity results in large β values. These results provide new insights into the practical use of mass-transfer models for predictive purposes.

Description: In this paper, an operational algorithm is proposed for the mapping of surface moisture over the northern and central parts of Tunisia, in North Africa. A change detection approach is applied, using 160 multi-incidence Envisat ASAR Wide Swath images acquired in the horizontal polarization over a 7-year period. Parameterization of this algorithm is considered for three classes of vegetation cover density (NDVI〈0.25, 0.25〈NDVI〈0.5 and NDVI〉0.5), retrieved from SPOT-VGT decadal images. A relative soil moisture index, ranging between 0 (for the driest surfaces) and 1 (for saturated soils), is proposed for each date, with a resolution of 1 km. The retrieved soil moistures are validated by means of ground measurements based on continuous thetaprobe measurements, as well as low resolution (25 km) ERS and ASCAT soil moisture products from the Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien). A qualitative relationship between spatio-temporal variations of moisture and precipitation is also discussed.

Description: [1]  Geodetic surveys now provide detailed time series maps of anthropogenic land subsidence and uplift due to injection and withdrawal of pore fluids from the subsurface. A coupled poroelastic model allows the integration of geodetic and hydraulic data in a joint inversion and has therefore the potential to improve the characterization of the subsurface and our ability to monitor pore pressure evolution. We formulate a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the lateral permeability variation in an aquifer from geodetic and hydraulic data, and from prior information. We compute the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the posterior permeability distribution, as well as a Gaussian approximation of the posterior. Computing the MAP estimate requires the solution of a large-scale minimization problem subject to the poroelastic equations, for which we propose an efficient Newton-conjugate gradient optimization algorithm. The covariance matrix of the Gaussian approximation of the posterior is given by the inverse Hessian of the log posterior, which we construct by exploiting low rank properties of the data misfit Hessian. First and second derivatives are computed using adjoints of the time dependent poroelastic equations, allowing us to fully exploit transient data. Using three increasingly complex model problems, we find the following general properties of poroelastic inversions: Augmenting standard hydraulic well data by surface deformation data improves the aquifer characterization. Surface deformation contributes the most in shallow aquifers, but provides useful information even for the characterization of aquifers down to 1 km. In general, it is more difficult to infer high permeability regions, and their characterization requires frequent measurement to resolve the associated short response time scales. In horizontal aquifers, the vertical component of the surface deformation provides a smoothed image of the pressure distribution in the aquifer. Provided that the mechanical properties are known, coupled poroelastic inversion is therefore a promising approach to detect flow barriers and to monitor pore pressure evolution.

Description: We study the elastic wave speed structure of the crust and the uppermost mantle in western Tibet using P and S-wave arrival times from regional earthquakes recorded by a temporary seismic network. We relocate the earthquakes, and subsequently invert travel time residuals for 3D distributions of wave speed. Resolution tests with a variety of input structures are used to verify the reliability of our results. The crust beneath western Tibet has low P-wave speed (5.9 - 6.3 km/s) throughout its nearly 80 km thickness, with lower values in this range concentrated within the Lhasa block. Beneath the Himalaya wave speeds are higher. Southern and western limits of the slow material beneath the Tibetan Plateau correlate with the Karakoram fault, and dip beneath the plateau at ~40° angle. We find no evidence of a sub-horizontal low velocity zone in the crust. In the uppermost mantle we find a long and narrow region of fast (up to 8.4 km/s) P-wave speed extending from the Karakoram fault in NE direction, and crossing the Bangong-Nujiang suture. In a north-south cross-section, the distribution of relatively fast P-wave speed suggests a ramp-flat geometry consistent with India underthrusting the Tibetan Plateau at least as far as 32.5°N. A plausible interpretation of the upper mantle fast feature is the formation of eclogite from the mafic lower-crustal material of India after it is underthrust beneath Tibet. Notably, in western Tibet this process only takes place in a narrow region.

Description: [1]  Numerical simulation experiments give insight into the evolving energy partitioning during high strain torsion experiments of calcite. Our numerical experiments are designed to derive a generic macroscopic grain size sensitive flow law capable of describing the full evolution from the transient regime to steady state. The transient regime is crucial for understanding the importance of microstructural processes that may lead to strain localization phenomena in deforming materials. This is particularly important in geological and geodynamic applications where the phenomenon of strain localization happens outside the time frame that can be observed under controlled laboratory conditions. Our method is based on an extension of the paleowattmeter approach to the transient regime. We add an empirical hardening law using the Ramberg-Osgood approximation and assess the experiments by an evolution test function of stored over dissipated energy (lambda factor). Parameter studies of, strain hardening, dislocation creep parameter, strain rates, temperature and lambda factor as well as mesh sensitivity are presented to explore the sensitivity of the newly derived transient/steady state flow law on key quantities. Our analysis can be seen as one of the first steps in a hybrid computational-laboratory-field modeling workflow. The analysis could be improved through independent verifications by thermographic analysis in physical laboratory experiments to independently assess lambda factor evolution under laboratory conditions.

Description: [1]  Despite its importance, the temporal and spatial evolution of continental dynamic topography is poorly known. Australia's isolation from active plate boundaries and its rapid northward motion within a hotspot reference frame make it a useful place to investigate the interplay between mantle convection, topography and drainage. Offshore, dynamic topography is relatively well constrained and can be accounted for by Australia's translation over the mantle's convective circulation. To build a databaseof onshore constraints, we have analyzed an inventory of longitudinal river profiles, which is sensitive to uplift rate history. Using independently constrained erosional parameters, we determine uplift rates by minimizing the misfit between observed and calculated river profiles. Resultant fits are excellent and calculated uplift histories match independent geologic constraints. We infer that western and central Australia underwent regional uplift during the last 50 Myr and that theEastern Highlands have been uplifted in two stages. The first stage from 120–80 Ma, coincided with rifting along the eastern margin and its existence is supported by thermochronological measurements. A second stage occurred at 80–10 Ma, formed the Great Escarpment, and coincided with Cenozoic volcanism. The relationship between topography, gravity anomalies, and shear wave tomographic models suggest that regional elevation is supported by temperature anomalies within the lithosphere's thermal boundary layer. Morphology and stratigraphy of the Eastern Highlands imply that these anomalies have been coupled to the base of the plate during Australia's northward motion over the last 70 Myr.

Description: We have employed shear wave splitting techniques to image anisotropy beneath the D'Entrecasteaux Islands, in southeastern Papua New Guinea. Our results provide a detailed picture of the extending continent that lies immediately ahead of a propagating mid-ocean ridge tip; we image the transition from continental to oceanic extension. A dense shear wave splitting dataset from a 2010-11 passive-source seismic deployment is analyzed using single- and multi-channel methods. Splitting delay times of 1-1.5 s are observed and fast axes of anisotropy trending N-S, parallel to rifting direction, predominate the results. This trend is linked to lattice-preferred orientation of olivine, primarily in the shallow convecting mantle, driven by up to 200 km of N-S continental extension ahead of the westward-propagating Woodlark Rift. This pattern differs from several other continental rifts that evince rift-strike-parallel fast axes and is evident despite the complex recent tectonic history. We contend that across most of this rift, the unusually high rate and magnitude of extension has been sufficient to produce a regime change to a mid-ocean-ridge-like mantle fabric. Stations in the south of our array show more complex splitting that might be related to melt or to complex inherited structure at the edge of the extended region.

Description: From April 2010 through February 2011, CO 2 flux surveys were performed on Lake Rotomahana, New Zealand. The area has been hydrothermally active with fumaroles and sublacustrine hydrothermal activity before and since the eruption of Mt Tarawera in 1886. The total CO 2 emission from the lake calculated by sequential Gaussian simulation is 549 ± 72 t day -1 . Two different mechanisms of degassing, diffusion through the water-air interface and bubbling, are distinguished using a graphical statistical approach. The carbon dioxide budget calculated for the lake confirms that the main source of CO 2 to the atmosphere is by diffusion covering 94.5 % of the lake area (mean CO 2 flux 25 g m -2 day -1 ) and to a lesser extent, bubbling (mean CO 2 flux 1297 g m -2 day -1 ). Mapping of the CO 2 flux over the entire lake, including over lakefloor vents detected during the survey, correlates with eruption craters formed during the 1886 eruption. These surveys also follow regional tectonic patterns present in the southeastern sector of Lake Rotomahana suggesting a deep magmatic source (~ 10 km) for CO 2 and different pathways for the gas to escape to the surface. The values of δ 13 C CO2 (-2.88 and -2.39 ‰) confirm the magmatic origin of CO 2 .

Description: This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset to systematically explore the connection between the flood frequency curve and mean annual water balance. Mean annual water balance is expressed in terms of two similarity measures: (i) the climatic aridity index, AI , which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; and (ii) the baseflow index, BFI , which is a measure of total runoff partitioning into surface and subsurface components at the annual time scale. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI , has a first order control on the shape of the flood frequency curve (also known as the growth curve), as expressed in terms of both the mean and coefficient of variation ( C v ) of the annual maximum floods, once normalized by catchment size (i.e., specific flood discharge) While the mean annual (specific) flood discharge decreases with increasing aridity, C v increases with increasing aridity. On the other hand, the BFI was found to be a second order control on the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI , meaning higher contributions of subsurface flow to total streamflow, leads to a decrease of the mean annual (specific) flood discharge, and vice versa. The statistically significant relationship between AI and the flood frequency curve and the consistent shift of the growth curves with AI support the use of AI as a similarity measure for regionalization of flood frequency.

Description: The performance of glacio-hydrological models which simulate catchment response to climate variability depends to a large degree on the data used to force the models. The forcing data become increasingly important in high elevation, glacierised catchments where the interplay between extreme topography, climate and the cryosphere is complex. It is challenging to generate a reliable forcing dataset that captures this spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we analyze the results of a one year field campaign focusing on air temperature and precipitation observations in the Langtang Valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. We use the observed time series to characterize both temperature lapse rates (LRs) and precipitation gradients (PGs). We study their spatial and temporal variability, and we attempt to identify possible controlling factors. We show that very clear LRs exist in the valley and that there are strong seasonal differences related to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. Results also show that the LRs are generally shallower than the commonly used environmental lapse rates. The analysis of the precipitation observations reveal that there is great variability in precipitation over short horizontal distances. A uniform valley wide PG cannot be established and several scale-dependent mechanisms may explain our observations. We complete our analysis by showing the impact of the observed LRs and PGs on the outputs of the TOPKAPI-ETH glacio-hydrological model. We conclude that LRs and PGs have a very large impact on the water balance composition and that short-term monitoring campaigns have the potential to improve model quality considerably.

Description: Regional-scale geologic structures characteristic of mantle lithosphere within cratons found in continent interiors are interpreted using geo-registered diverse data sets from the Slave craton of northwest Canada. We developed and applied a new method for mapping seismic discontinuities in three dimensions using multi-year observations at sparse, individual broadband receivers. New, fully 3-D conductivity models used all available magnetotelluric data. Discontinuity surfaces and conductivity models were geo-registered with previously published P-wave and surface wave velocity models to confirm first-order structures such as a mid-lithosphere discontinuity. Our 3-D model to 400 km depth was calibrated by ‘drill hole’ observations derived from xenolith suites extracted from kimberlites. A number of new structural discontinuities emerge from direct comparison of co-registered data sets and models. Importantly we distinguish primary mantle layers from secondary features related to younger metasomatism. Sub-horizontal Slave craton layers with tapered, wedge-shaped margins indicate construction of the craton core at 2.7 Ga by underthrusting and flat stacking of lithosphere. Mapping of conductivity and metasomatism in 3-D, the latter inferred via mineral recrystallization and resetting of isotopic ages in xenoliths, indicates overprinting of the primary layered structures. The observed distribution of relatively conductive mantle at 100–200 km depths is consistent with pervasive metasomatism; vertical ‘chimneys’ reaching to crustal depths in locations where kimberlites erupted or where Au mineralization is known.

Description: Many physically-based hydrological/hydrogeological models used for predicting groundwater seepage areas, including topography-based index models such as TOPMODEL, rely on the Dupuit assumption. To ensure the sound use of these simplified models, knowledge of the conditions under which they provide a reasonable approximation is critical. In this study, a Dupuit solution for the seepage length in hillslope cross-sections is tested against a full-depth solution of saturated groundwater flow. In homogeneous hillslopes with horizontal impervious base and constant-slope topography, the comparison reveals that the validity of the Dupuit solution depends not only on the ratio of depth to hillslope length d/L (as might be expected), but also on the ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge K/R and on the topographic slope s . The validity of the Dupuit solution is shown to be in fact a unique function of another ratio, the ratio of depth to seepage length d/L S . For d/L S 〈 0.2, the relative difference between the two solutions is quite small (〈 14% for the wide range of parameter values tested), whereas for d/L S 〉 0.2, it increases dramatically. In practice, this criterion can be used to test the validity of Dupuit solutions. When d/L S increases beyond that cut-off, the ratio of seepage length to hillslope length L S /L given by the full-depth solution tends towards a non-zero asymptotic value. This asymptotic value is shown to be controlled by (and in many cases equal to) the parameter R/sK . Generalization of the findings to cases featuring heterogeneity, non-horizontal impervious base and variable-slope topography is discussed.

Description: Isothermal compositional flow models require coupling transient compressible flows and advective transport systems of various chemical species in subsurface porous media. Building such numerical models is quite challenging and may be subject to many sources of uncertainties because of possible incomplete representation of some geological parameters that characterize the system's processes. Advanced data assimilation methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), can be used to calibrate these models by incorporating available data. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating reservoir permeability using information about phase pressure as well as the chemical properties of fluid components. We carry out state-parameter estimation experiments using joint and dual updating schemes in the context of the EnKF with a two-dimensional single-phase compositional flow model (CFM). Quantitative and statistical analyses are performed to evaluate and compare the performance of the assimilation schemes. Our results indicate that including chemical composition data significantly enhances the accuracy of the permeability estimates. In addition, composition data provide more information to estimate system states and parameters than do standard pressure data. The dual state-parameter estimation scheme provides about 10% more accurate permeability estimates on average than the joint scheme when implemented with the same ensemble members, at the cost of twice more forward model integrations. At similar computational cost, the dual approach becomes only beneficial after using large enough ensembles.

Description: Groundwater-fed irrigation has been shown to deplete groundwater storage, decrease surface water runoff and increase evapotranspiration. Here we simulate soil moisture dependent groundwater-fed irrigation with an integrated hydrologic model. This allows for direct consideration of feedbacks between irrigation demand and groundwater depth. Special attention is paid to system dynamics in order to characterized spatial variability in irrigation demand and response to increased irrigation stress. A total of 80 years of simulation are completed for the Little Washita Basin in Southwestern Oklahoma, USA spanning a range of agricultural development scenarios and management practices. Results show regionally aggregated irrigation impacts consistent with other studies. However, here a spectral analysis reveals that groundwater-fed irrigation is also shown to amplify the annual streamflow cycle while dampening longer-term cyclical behavior with increased irrigation during climatological dry periods. Feedbacks between the managed and natural system are clearly observed with respect to both irrigation demand and utilization when water table depths are within a critical range. Although the model domain is heterogeneous with respect to both surface and subsurface parameters, relationships between irrigation demand, water table depth and irrigation utilization are consistent across space and between scenarios. Still, significant local heterogeneities are observed both with respect to transient behavior and response to stress. Spatial analysis of transient behavior shows that farms with groundwater depths within a critical depth range are most sensitive to management changes. Differences in behavior highlight the importance of groundwater's role in system dynamics in addition to water availability.

Description: Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors ) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large time scales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semi-distributed hill-slope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that up-scaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors where found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.

Description: The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors ) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor ) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, . This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins?; i.e. making the attractor emerge . This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as . It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors.

Description: ABSTRACT A large-time analytical solution is proposed for the spatial variance and coefficient of variation of the depth-averaged concentration due to instantaneous, cross-sectionally uniform solute sources in pseudo-rectangular open channel flows. The mathematical approach is based on the use of the Green functions and on the Fourier decomposition of the depth-averaged velocities, coupled with the method of the images. The variance spatial trend is characterized by a minimum at the center of the mass and two mobile, decaying symmetrical peaks which, at very large times, are located at the inflexion points of the average Gaussian distribution. The coefficient of variation, which provides an estimate of the expected percentage deviation of the depth-averaged point concentrations about the section-average, exhibits a minimum at the center which decays like t -1 and only depends on the river diffusive time-scale. The defect of cross-sectional mixing quickly increases with the distance from the center, and almost linearly at large times. Accurate numerical Lagrangian simulations were performed to validate the analytical results in pre-asymptotic and asymptotic conditions, referring to a particularly representative sample case for which cross-sectional depth and velocity measurements were known from a field survey. In addition, in order to discuss the practical usefulness of computing large-time concentration spatial moments in river flows, and resorting to directly measured input data, the order of magnitude of section-averaged concentrations and corresponding coefficients of variation was estimated in field conditions and for hypothetical contamination scenarios, considering a unit normalized mass impulsively injected across the transverse section of 81 U.S. rivers.

Description: Understanding the nature of the crust has long been a goal for seismologists when imaging the Earth. This is particularly true in volcanic regions where imaging melt storage and migration can have important implications for the size and nature of an eruption. Receiver functions and the H- κ stacking (H κ ) technique are often used to constrain crustal thickness (H) and the ratio of P- to S-wave velocities ( κ ). In this paper I show that it is essential to consider anisotropy when performing H κ . I show that in a medium with horizontally transverse isotropy a strong variation in κ with back azimuth is present which characterises the anisotropic medium. In a vertically transverse isotropic medium no variation in κ with back azimuth is observed, but κ is increased across all back azimuths. Thus, estimates of κ are more difficult to relate to composition than previously thought. I extend these models to melt induced anisotropy and show that similar patterns are observed, but with more significant variations and increases in κ . Based on these observations I develop a new anisotropic H- κ stacking technique which inverts H κ data for melt fraction, aspect ratio and orientation of melt inclusions. I apply this to data for the Afar Depression and show that melt is stored in interconnected stacked sills in the lower crust, which likely supply the recent volcanic eruptions and dike intrusions. This new technique can be applied to any anisotropic medium where it can provide constraints on the average crustal anisotropy.

Description: A Fortran 90 program to visualize data on the Yin-Yang grid system is developed. The purpose of this study is to provide simulation researchers with a source code as a starting point of their own custom-made visualization tools. A basic but sufficiently diverse set of visualization methods are implemented using a Fortran 90 binding for OpenGL for scalar and vector fields defined or simulated on the Yin-Yang grid.

Description: We present an efficient numerical method for earthquake cycle simulations that employs a finite difference discretization of the off-fault material to accommodate spatially variable elastic properties. The method is developed for the two-dimensional antiplane shear problem of a vertical strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction. We compare earthquake cycles in a homogeneous half-space with those in which the upper portion of the fault cuts through a sedimentary basin. In both cases, we assume velocity-weakening behavior over the full seismogenic depth, even in the basin, to isolate the influence of elastic heterogeneity. In a homogeneous half-space, events rupturing the full seismogenic depth occur periodically. Event sequences are more complex in basin models, with one or several sub-basin events confined to the lower section of the fault followed by a much larger, surface-rupturing event that breaks through the basin. This phenomenology emerges only for sufficiently compliant and deepbasins. Predicted surface velocities are essentially identical before sub-basin events and surface-rupturing events, suggesting that geodetic observations would not be useful in predicting the rupture mode. The alternating sequence of sub-basin andsurface-rupturing events would complicate interpretation of paleoseismic data. Our results also offer one potential explanation for the shallow slip deficit that has been observed in many recent earthquakes, namely, that these events, which lack appreciable surface slip, are simply one style of rupture. Subsequent events on these faults might be larger, with slip extending all the way to the surface. The 1940 M w 7.0 and 1979 M w 6.5 Imperial Valley events might be considered as examples of these two rupture styles.

Description: The 290-km-long, Nayband strike-slip fault bounds the western margin of the Lut block and cuts across a region thought to have been quiescent during the last few millennia. Cl-36 cosmic ray exposure (CRE) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of cumulative geomorphic offsets are used to derive the long-term slip rate. The measured offsets at two sites along the fault range between 9 ± 1 m and 195 ± 15 m with ages from 6.8 ± 0.6 ka to ∼ 100 ka, yielding minimum and maximum bounds of late Pleistocene and Holocene slip rates of 1.08 and 2.45 mm yr -1 , respectively. This moderate slip rate of 1.8 ± 0.7 mm yr -1 , averaged over several earthquake cycles, is compared to the paleoseismic record retrieved from the first trench excavated across the fault. Combining the paleoseismic evidence with 18 OSL ages obtained from this trench site demonstrates the occurrence of at least four large (M w  ∼ 7) earthquakes during the last 17.4 ± 1.3 ka and of two older earthquakes, one before ∼ 23 ka and another before 70 ± 5 ka. The exposed sediment succession also indicates a significant gap at the end of MIS-2 and the beginning of MIS-1. The age of the most recent regional incision is accurately bracketed between 6.1 ka and 7.4 ka. Sediments from the last ∼ 7 ka contain evidence of the three younger earthquakes. Interestingly, the penultimate and antepenultimate events occurred between 6.5 ± 0.4 ka and 6.7 ± 0.4 ka within a time interval lasting at most 1 ka whereas the most recent earthquake occurred within the last millennium. Such an irregular earthquake occurrence suggests the seismic behavior of the Nayband fault is not strictly time dependent but possibly related to clustering. From this and taking into account the occurrence of the most recent earthquake within the last 800 years, the imminence of an earthquake along the Nayband fault cannot be discarded. Although the most recent surface-rupturing event seems to have occurred after AD 1200, this event went unnoticed in the historical records. This provides a marked illustration of the incompleteness of the historical seismic catalogs in Central Iran, challenging any assessment of regional seismic hazard without appropriate geologic and geochronological information. Large and infrequent earthquakes are characteristic of the seismic behavior of the slow-slipping strike-slip faults slicing Central and Eastern Iran. Also, the slip rates summed across Central and Eastern Iran from the Iran Plateau up to the Afghan lowlands appear in agreement with the most recent GPS data.

Description: Yellowstone National Park (YNP) displays numerous and extensive hydrothermal features. Although hydrothermal alteration in YNP has been extensively studied, the volume, geometry, and type of rock alteration at depth remain poorly constrained. In this study, we use high-resolution airborne and ground magnetic surveys and measurements of remanent and induced magnetization of field and drill-hole samples to provide constraints on the geometry of hydrothermal alteration within the subsurface of three thermal areas in YNP (Firehole River, Smoke Jumper Hot Springs, and Norris Geyser Basin). We observe that hydrothermal zones from both liquid- and vapor-dominated systems coincide with magnetic lows observed in aeromagnetic surveys and with a decrease of the amplitude of short-wavelength anomalies seen in ground magnetic surveys. This suggests strong demagnetization of both the shallow and deep substratum within these areas associated with the removal or transformation of magnetic minerals by hydrothermal alteration processes. Such demagnetization is confirmed by measurements of rock samples from hydrothermal areas which display significantly decreased total magnetization. Measurements of rock samples from drill holes also suggest that the degree of demagnetization and therefore hydrothermal alteration of the substratum varies dramatically over short distances both vertically and horizontally. A pronounced negative anomaly is observed over the Lone Star Geyser and suggests a significant demagnetization of the substratum associated with areas displaying large-scale fluid flow. We use the damped short-wavelength signal over ground magnetic profiles to map hydrothermal alteration in the shallow substratum. Maximum values of the magnetic anomaly gradient measured along ground magnetic profiles are also used to estimate the thickness of a non-magnetic layer that is assumed to cover the volcanic unaltered substratum. Finally, the magnetic lows observed over ground and airborne magnetic surveys are used to invert the distribution of magnetization using two types of simplifying assumptions. First, the substratum magnetization is inverted assuming it is constant in the vertical direction and second, the topography of the base of a superficial non-magnetic layer is inverted assuming the underlying substratum has a constant magnetization. Both the magnetic gradient analysis and the topography inversion show that significant demagnetization occurs over a thickness of at least a few hundred meters in hydrothermal areas at YNP. We also show that the maximum degree or maximum thickness of demagnetization correlates closely with the location of hydrothermal activity and mapped alteration. Our results suggest that areas of hydrothermal alteration are composed of substrata with different degrees of alteration, with significant alteration occurring within narrow zones that may represent major conduits for hydrothermal fluid flow.

Description: The inverse problem of determining the flow at the Earth's Core Mantle Boundary according to an outer core magnetic field and secular variation model has been investigated through a Bayesian formalism. To circumvent the issue arising from the truncated nature of the available fields, we combined two modeling methods. In the first step, we applied a filter on the magnetic field to isolate its large scales by reducing the energy contained in its small scales, we then derived the dynamical equation, referred as filtered frozen flux equation, describing the spatio-temporal evolution of the filtered part of the field. In the second step, we proposed a statistical parametrization of the filtered magnetic field in order to account for both its remaining unresolved scales and its large scale uncertainties. These two modeling techniques were then included in the Bayesian formulation of the inverse problem. To explore the complex posterior distribution of the velocity field resulting from this development, we numerically implemented an algorithm based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. After evaluating our approach on synthetic data and comparing it to previously introduced methods, we applied it to a magnetic field model derived from satellite data for the single epoch 2005.0. We could confirm the existence of specific features already observed in previous studies. In particular we retrieved the planetary-scale eccentric gyre characteristic of flow evaluated under the compressible quasi-geostrophy assumption although this hypothesis was not considered in our study. In addition, through the sampling of the velocity field posterior distribution, we could evaluate the reliability, at any spatial location and at any scale, of the flow we calculated. The flow uncertainties we determined are nevertheless conditioned by the choice of the prior constraints we applied to the velocity field.

Description: Two major causes of salt marsh loss are vertical drowning, when sediment accumulation on the platform cannot keep vertical pace with sea level rise, and horizontal retreat, associated with wave-induced marsh boundary erosion. Despite these processes having been extensively documented and modeled, is unclear which loss modality dominates given a set of environmental parameters. A three-point dynamic model was developed to predict marsh loss as a function of sea level rise, allochthonous sediment supply, wind regime, tidal range, and marsh bank and mudflat erodability. Marsh horizontal and vertical evolution was found to respond in opposing ways to wave induced erosion processes. Marsh horizontal retreat was triggered by large mudflats, strong winds, high erodability of marsh bank and mudflat, whereas the opposite conditions acted to reduce the sediment supply to the marsh platform, promoting marsh loss to drowning. With low and moderate rates of sea level rise (~ 5 mm/yr), retreat was found to be a more likely marsh loss modality than drowning. However, conditions associated with marsh retreat also increase the system resilience by transferring sediment on the marsh platform and preventing drowning. Our results suggest the use of a modular strategy for short-term marsh management: selectively protect extensive salt marsh regions by maintaining healthy vegetation on the platform, while allowing other areas to retreat, leveraging the natural resilience embedded in the lateral loss of marsh extent.

Description: Observational data and the Princeton Urban Canopy Model, with its detailed representation of urban heterogeneity and hydrological processes, are combined to study evaporation and turbulent water vapor transport over urban areas. The analyses focus on periods before and after precipitation events, at two sites in the Northeastern United States. Our results indicate that while evaporation from concrete pavements, building rooftops and asphalt surfaces is discontinuous and intermittent, overall these surfaces accounted for nearly 18% of total latent heat fluxes (LE) during a relatively wet 10-day period. More importantly, these evaporative fluxes have a significant impact on the urban surface energy balance, particularly during the 48 hours following a rain event when impervious evaporation is the highest. Thus, their accurate representation in urban models is critical. Impervious evaporation after rainfall is also shown to correlate the sources of heat and water at the earth surface, resulting in a conditional scalar transport similarity over urban terrain following rain events.

Description: The spatial and temporal dynamics of seasonal snow covers play a critical role for many hydrological, ecological, and climatic processes. This paper presents a new, innovative approach to continuously monitor these dynamics using numerous low-cost, standalone snow monitoring stations (SnoMoS). These stations provide snow and related meteorological data with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Data collected by SnoMoS include: snow depth, surface temperature, air temperature and humidity, total precipitation, global radiation, wind speed, and barometric pressure. A total of 99 sensors were placed over the winters 2010/11 and 2011/12 at multiple locations within three 40 - 180 km² basins in the Black Forest region of Southern Germany. The locations were chosen to cover a wide range of slopes, elevations, and expositions in a stratified sampling design. Furthermore, “paired stations” located in close proximity to each other, one in the open and one underneath various forest canopies, were set up to investigate the influence of vegetation on snow dynamics. The results showed that considerable differences in snow depth and, therefore, snow water equivalent (SWE) are present within the study area despite its moderate temperatures and medium elevation range (400 - 1500 m). The relative impact of topographical factors like elevation, aspect, and of different types of forest vegetation were quantified continuously and were found to change considerably over the winter period. The recorded differences in SWE and snow cover duration were large enough that they should be considered in hydrologic and climate models.