ALBERT

Description: Decadal trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent ultimately controlled by ice-ocean feedback The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4585-4632, 2013 Author(s): H. Goosse and V. Zunz The large natural variability of the Antarctic sea ice is a key characteristic of the system that might be responsible for the small positive trend in sea ice extent observed since 1979. In order to gain insight in the processes responsible for this variability, we have analysed in a control simulation performed with a coupled climate model a strong positive ice-ocean feedback that amplifies sea ice variations. When sea ice concentration increases in a region, in particular close to the ice edge, the mixed layer depth tends to decrease. This can be caused by a net inflow of ice and thus of freshwater that stabilizes the water column. Another stabilizing mechanism at interannual time scales that appears more widespread in our simulation is associated with the downward salt transport due to the seasonal cycle of ice formation: brine is released in winter when ice is formed and mixed over a deep layer while the freshwater flux caused by ice melting is included in a shallow layer, resulting in a net vertical transport of salt. Because of this stronger stratification due to the presence of sea ice, more heat is stored at depth in the ocean and the vertical oceanic heat flux is reduced, which contributes to maintain a higher ice extent. This positive feedback is not associated with a particular spatial pattern. Consequently, the spatial distribution of the trend in ice concentration is largely imposed by the wind changes that can provide the initial perturbation. A positive freshwater flux could alternatively be the initial trigger but the amplitude of the final response of the sea ice extent is finally set up by the amplification related to ice-ocean feedback. Initial conditions have also an influence as the chance to have a large increase in ice extent is higher if starting from a state characterized by a low value.

Description: This paper proposes a method to identify blocking onset and decay by means of two stability indicators: enstrophy advection and its integral. The key to this technique is the use of local Lyapunov exponents for the barotropic vorticity equation which can be approximated by the integral of enstrophy (IRE) over a fixed, finite, region. The IRE can then be viewed as a measure of stability. However, by differentiating the IRE with respect to time, two measures of stability can be derived to assess blocking onset and decay: (i) the integral of enstrophy advection (DIRE), for which a time series is used to assess stability; and (ii) enstrophy advection, for which contours are plotted in conjunction with 500 hPa heights to locate blocking. One year of Northern Hemisphere blocking events from July 2011-July 2012 are studied to demonstrate that the integral of enstrophy advection is a useful diagnostic. In particular, time series of IRE and DIRE for four of the blocking cases are presented, while contour plots of enstrophy advection for one case are presented. In all cases studied, the diagnostics were seen to detect the instability in an incipient blocking event and in its decay.

Description: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate the evolution of Tropical Storm Ivan (2004) in the southeast (SE) US using both the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjić (MYJ) boundary layer parameterizations. In contrast with tropical cyclone (TC) simulations over the ocean, the effect of surface layer becomes secondary for a dissipating hurricane along its terrestrial track. Although these two schemes can reproduce Ivan reasonably well, our results suggest that the mixing properties for damped mechanical turbulent conditions (weakly stable) are strongly underestimated by both parameterizations. This underestimation impacts the thermodynamic properties of the storm, leading to significant differences in the storm areal extent and the simulated precipitation fields. Suggestions for further improvements are provided. An evaluation of the impact of using or not using a convective parameterization, specifically the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme, at 3 km grid spacing shows marginal impact on storm coverage, intensity and precipitation, except for the presence of widespread light rainfall in the Piedmont east of the mountains when the KF is employed. Analysis of the thermal structure of the simulated storm indicates that, in the inner-storm region, the KF is either not activated or primarily produces ( parameterized ) shallow convection. As a result, the net heating tendency associated with adiabatic and diabatic processes is almost unaltered inside the storm, together with a nearly equivalent surface momentum sink, leading to similar storm areal extent and intensity. Light rainfall to the east of the mountains can be due to the trigger mechanism of KF, which depends on boundary layer convergence, forcing parameterized deep convection near the coast, where surface roughness changes enhance convergence.

Description: Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) affect the south-eastern area of France frequently during the months of September to November. Very high amounts of rain can fall during these events, with the ensuing flash-floods causing widespread damage. The cases of the 6th of September 2010 and the 1st to the 4th of November 2011 represent the different large-scale conditions in which these episodes can occur. These HPEs are forecast with differing levels of skill by the Méso-NH model at a 2.5 km resolution. The case of the 6th of September is used to test different methods of addressing cloud physics parameterisation uncertainties. Three ensembles are constructed, where the warm process microphysical time tendencies are perturbed by different methods. Results are compared by examining the spatio-temporal distribution of the precipitation field as well as looking at ensemble statistics. The ensemble methodology which induces the most dispersion in the rainfall field is deemed the most suitable. This method is then used to examine the sensitivity of four cases from November 2011 to errors in the microphysical and turbulent parameterisations. It appears that according to the model skill for the HPE, the sensitivity to microphysical perturbations varies. Events where the model skill is high (low) show low (moderate) sensitivity. These cases show a stronger sensitivity to perturbations performed upon the turbulent tendencies, while perturbing the microphysical and turbulent tendencies together produces even further dispersion. The results show the importance and the usefulness of ensembles with perturbed physical parameterisations in the forecasting of HPEs.

Description: This paper analyses the annual mean vertical and latitudinal structure of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the CMIP5 models. The strength of the tropical mass upwelling is found to increase at all altitudes throughout the stratosphere due to climate change. However, the width of the tropical upwelling region narrows below about 20hPa, and widens above 20hPa, suggesting different physical mechanisms may play a role in this change above and below 20hPa. In the lower stratosphere, an equatorward shift in the stationary wave critical line allows waves to propagate further into the tropics. However, in the upper stratosphere, where the behaviour is dominated by what happens during the winter, an increase in the extratropical zonal mean westerly jet leads to a reduced equatorward refraction of planetary waves. The seasonal cycle of the change in the Brewer-Dobson circulation is also considered, and differences are found in the latitudinal structure of the increased extratropical downwelling between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in winter.

Description: Sub-seasonal forecasts have been routinely produced at ECMWF since 2002 with re-forecasts produced "on the fly" to calibrate the real-time sub-seasonal forecasts. In this study, the skill of the re-forecasts from April 2002 to March 2012 and covering a common set of years (1995 to 2001) has been evaluated. Results indicate that the skill of the ECMWF re-forecasts to predict the Madden Julian Oscillation has improved significantly since 2002, with an average gain of about 1 day of prediction skill per year. The amplitude of the MJO has also become more realistic, although the model still tends to produce MJOs which are weaker than in the ECMWF re-analysis. As a consequence, the ability of the ECMWF model to simulate realistic MJO teleconnections over the northern and southern Extratropics has improved dramatically over the 10-year period. Forecast skill scores have also improved in the Extratropics. For instance, weekly mean forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are more skillful in recent years than ten years ago. A large part of this improvement seems to be linked to the improvements in the representation of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Skill to predict 2-metre temperature anomalies over the northern Extratropics has also improved almost continuously since 2002. Changes in the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the atmospheric model had only a small impact on the skill scores, suggesting that most of the improvements in the ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts were due to changes in model physics which were primarily designed to improve the model climate and medium-range forecasts. The impact of changes in the data assimilation system and in the observing data has not been considered in this study, since all the re-forecasts used for this study were initialized from the same re-analysis over a common set of years.

Description: Dual-polarisation radar measurements provide valuable information about the shapes and orientations of atmospheric ice particles. For quantitative interpretation of these data in the Rayleigh regime, common practice is to approximate the true ice crystal shape with that of a spheroid. Calculations using the discrete dipole approximation for a wide range of crystal aspect ratios demonstrate that approximating hexagonal plates as spheroids leads to significant errors in the predicted differential reflectivity, by as much as 1.5dB. An empirical modification of the shape factors in Gans's spheroid theory was made using the numerical data. The resulting simple expressions, like Gans's theory, can be applied to crystals in any desired orientation, illuminated by an arbitrarily polarised wave, but are much more accurate for hexagonal particles. Calculations of the scattering from more complex branched and dendritic crystals indicate that these may be accurately modelled using the new expression, but with a reduced permittivity dependent on the volume of ice relative to an enclosing hexagonal prism.

Description: The parameterisation of diabatic processes in numerical models is critical for the accuracy of weather forecasts and for climate projections. A novel approach to the evaluation of these processes in models is introduced in this contribution. The approach combines a suite of on-line tracer diagnostics with off-line trajectory calculations. Each tracer tracks accumulative changes in potential temperature associated with a particular parameterised diabatic process in the model. A comparison of tracers therefore allows the identification of the most active diabatic processes and their downstream impacts. The tracers are combined with trajectories computed using model-resolved winds, allowing the various diabatic contributions to be tracked back to their time and location of occurrence. We have used this approach to investigate diabatic processes within a simulated extratropical cyclone. We focus on the warm conveyor belt, in which the dominant diabatic contributions come from large-scale latent heating and parameterised convection. By contrasting two simulations, one with standard convection parameterisation settings and another with reduced parameterised convection, the effects of parameterised convection on the structure of the cyclone have been determined. Under reduced parameterised convection conditions, the large-scale latent heating is forced to release convective instability that would otherwise have been released by the convection parameterisation. Although the spatial distribution of precipitation depends on the details of the split between parameterised convection and large-scale latent heating, the total precipitation amount associated with the cyclone remains largely unchanged. For reduced parameterised convection, a more rapid and stronger latent heating episode takes place as air ascends within the warm conveyor belt.

Description: A data set of world-wide glacier length fluctuations The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4775-4811, 2013 Author(s): P. W. Leclercq, J. Oerlemans, H. J. Basagic, I. Bushueva, A. J. Cook, and R. Le Bris Glacier fluctuations contribute to variations in sea level and historical glacier length fluctuations are natural indicators of climate change. To study these subjects, long-term information of glacier change is needed. In this paper we present a~data set of global long-term glacier length fluctuations. The data set is a compilation of available information on changes in glacier length world-wide, including both measured and reconstructed glacier length fluctuations. All 471 length series start before 1950 and cover at least four decades. The longest record starts in 1534, but the majority of time series start after 1850. The number of available records decreases again after 1962. The data set has global coverage including records from all continents. However, the Canadian Arctic is not represented in the data set. The glacier length series show relatively small fluctuations until the mid-19th century followed by a global retreat that was strongest in the first half of the 20th century, although large variability in the length change of the different glaciers is observed. During the 20th century, calving glaciers retreated more than land terminating glaciers, but their relative length change was approximately equal. Besides calving, the glacier slope is the most important glacier property determining length change: steep glaciers have retreated less than glaciers with a gentle slope.

Description: Motivated by observations of the mean state of tropical precipitable water (PW), a moist, first baroclinic mode, shallow water system on an equatorial β -plane with a background saturation profile that depends on latitude and longitude is studied. In the presence of a latitudinal moisture gradient, linear analysis of the non-rotating problem reveals large-scale, symmetric, eastward and westward propagating unstable modes. The introduction of a zonal moisture gradient breaks the east–west symmetry of the unstable modes. The effects of rotation are then included by numerically solving the resulting eigenvalue problem on an equatorial β -plane. With a purely meridional moisture gradient, the system supports large-scale, low-frequency, eastward and westward moving neutral modes. Some of the similarities, and some of the discrepancies of these modes with intraseasonal tropical waves are pointed out. Finally, a zonal moisture gradient in the presence of rotation renders some of the aforementioned neutral modes unstable. In particular, as per observations of large-scale, low-frequency tropical variability, it is seen that regions where the background saturation profile increases (decreases) to the east favour eastward (westward) moving moist modes.

Description: In this study changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks during the 20th century are investigated based on the individual 56 ensemble-members of the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset. It is found that the 20th century trends in storm track activities exhibit large discrepancies between the upper and lower troposphere. In the upper troposphere, a substantial intensification is identified at the poleward and downstream regions of the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm track activities, indicating a large northeastward expansion of storm tracks in the late 20th century. However, in the lower troposphere the synoptic eddy activities, especially in terms of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and meridional eddy heat flux, tend to be significantly weakened over the high-latitudes of central-western North Pacific and the upstream regions of the North Atlantic storm tracks. Further inspections find that such strengthening (weakening) of storm tracks in the upper (lower) troposphere are mainly attributed to the increase (decrease) of the baroclinic instability, which is predominantly determined by the meridional temperature gradient changes. Moreover, from a local energetic perspective, the baroclinic generation and barotropic damping of the synoptic eddies are found to be substantially enhanced at the upstream and downstream regions of the two storm tracks in the upper troposphere, respectively, while in the lower troposphere the baroclinic energy conversion to eddies are generally decreased.

Description: We derive a family of ideal (nondissipative) 3D sound-proof fluid models that includes both the Lipps-Hemler anelastic approximation (AA) and the Durran pseudo-incompressible approximation (PIA). This family of models arises in the Euler-Poincaré framework involving a constrained Hamilton's principle expressed in the Eulerian fluid description. The derivation in this framework establishes the following properties of each member of the entire family: the Kelvin-Noether circulation theorem, conservation of potential vorticity on fluid parcels, a Lie-Poisson Hamiltonian formulation possessing conserved Casimirs, a conserved domain integrated energy and an associated variational principle satisfied by the equilibrium solutions. Having set the stage with the derivations of 3D models using the constrained Hamilton's principle, we then derive the corresponding 2D vertical slice models for these sound-proof theories.

Description: Implementation and evaluation of prognostic representations of the optical diameter of snow in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4443-4500, 2013 Author(s): C. M. Carmagnola, S. Morin, M. Lafaysse, F. Domine, B. Lesaffre, Y. Lejeune, G. Picard, and L. Arnaud In the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus multi-layer snowpack model, the snow microstructure was up to now characterized by the grain size and by semi-empirical shape variables which cannot be measured easily in the field or linked to other relevant snow properties. In this work we introduce a new formulation of snow metamorphism directly based on equations describing the rate of change of the optical diameter ( d opt ). This variable is considered here to be equal to the equivalent sphere optical diameter, which is inversely proportional to the specific surface area (SSA). d opt thus represents quantitatively some of the geometric characteristics of a porous medium. Different prognostic rate equations of d opt , including a re-formulation of the original Crocus scheme and the parametrizations from Taillandier et al. (2007) and Flanner and Zender (2006), were evaluated by comparing their predictions to field measurements carried out at Summit Camp (Greenland) in May and June 2011 and at Col de Porte (French Alps) during the 2009/10 and 2011/12 winter seasons. We focused especially on results in terms of SSA. In addition, we tested the impact of the different formulations on the simulated density profile, the total snow height, the snow water equivalent (SWE) and the surface albedo. Results indicate that all formulations perform well, with median values of the RMSD between measured and simulated SSA lower than 10 m 2 kg −1 . Incorporating the optical diameter as a fully-fledged prognostic variable is an important step forward in the quantitative description of the snow microstructure within snowpack models, because it opens the way to data assimilation of various electromagnetic observations.

Description: Distribution and recent variations of supraglacial lakes on dendritic-type glaciers in the Khan Tengri-Tomur Mountains, Central Asia The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4545-4584, 2013 Author(s): Q. Liu, C. Mayer, and S. Liu Supraglacial lakes are widely distributed on glaciers in the Tomur-Khan Tengri Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. The existence and development of supraglacial lakes play an important role in the ice melting processes and also in the storage and release of glacial melt water. Here we mapped the supraglacial lakes of eight typical debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers around the Tomur-Khan Tengri peaks based on 9 Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in the summers of 1990 until 2011. With a lower area limit of 3600 m 2 for a conservative identification of glacial lakes, we mapped 775 supraglacial lakes and 38 marginal glacial lakes in total. Our results indicate that supraglacial lakes (area 〉 3600 m 2 ) in the study region never develop beyond an elevation of about 3850 m a.s.l., 800 m lower than the maximum upper boundary of debris cover (4650 m a.s.l.). The area-elevation distribution shows that lakes are predominantly occured close to the altitude of 3250 m a.s.l., where the clean ice simultaneously disappears. The majority of the supraglacial lakes are found on the Tomur Glacier and the South Inylchek Glacier, two strongly debris-covered dendritic-type glaciers in the region. As for the multi-year variation of lake area, the summer total and mean areas of supraglacial lakes show some variability from 1990 and 2005 but increased noticeably between 2005 and 2011. The mean area of the mapped lakes reached a maximum in 2010. We found that the area of supraglacial lakes is positively correlated to the total precipitation in summer (July to September) but negatively correlated to the mean spring air temperature (April to June). Pre-summer air temperature fluctuations likely have a stronger impact on the different evolution processes of glacial drainage, evolving from unconnected to connected systems, which may lead to the drainage of larger supraglacial lakes and results in shrinkage of the total and mean lake area during the summer.

Description: Fracture-induced softening for large-scale ice dynamics The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4501-4544, 2013 Author(s): T. Albrecht and A. Levermann Floating ice shelves can exert a retentive and hence stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet of Antarctica. However, this effect has been observed to diminish by fracture-coupled dynamic processes within the protective ice shelves leading to accelerated ice flow and hence to a sea-level contribution. In order to better understand the role of fractures in ice dynamics we apply a large-scale continuum representation of fractures and related fracture growth into the prognostic Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). To this end we introduce a higher-order accuracy advection scheme for the transport of the two-dimensional fracture density across the regular computational grid. Dynamic coupling of fractures and ice flow is attained by a reduction of effective ice viscosity proportional to the inferred fracture density. This formulation implies the possibility of a non-linear threshold behavior due to self-amplified fracturing in shear regions triggered by small variations in damage threshold. As a result of prognostic flow simulations, flow patterns with realistically large across-flow velocity gradients in fracture-weakened regions as seen in observations are reproduced. This model framework is expandable to grounded ice streams and accounts for climate-induced effects on fracturing and hence on the ice-flow dynamics. It further allows for an enhanced fracture-based calving parameterization.

Description: The surface wind response to SST and SST meridional gradient is investigated in the Gulf of Guinea by using daily observations and reanalyses in the 2000–2009 decade, with a focus on boreal spring and summer months (May to August), where quasi-biweekly fluctuations in the position of the northern front of the equatorial cold tongue induce quasi-biweekly equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Following a large-scale wind acceleration (deceleration), an equatorial SST cold (warm) anomaly is created within a few days. In order to explain the local atmospheric response to this SST anomaly, the two following mechanisms are invoked: first, a colder (warmer) ocean decreases (increases) the vertical stability in the marine atmospheric boundary layer, which favors a weaker (stronger) surface wind; and second, a negative (positive) anomaly of SST meridional gradient induces a positive (negative) anomaly of sea level pressure meridional gradient, which decelerate (accelerate) the surface wind. The first mechanism has an immediate effect in the equatorial belt between 1°S-1°N (and to a lesser extent between 3°S and 1°S), while the second takes one or two days to adjust and damps anomalous southeasterlies up to 800 hPa in the low troposphere between 7°S and 1°N, through reversed anomalies of meridional SST and pressure gradient. This negative feedback leads to weaker (stronger) winds in the southeastern Tropical Atlantic, which forces the opposite phase of the oscillation within about a week. Around the equator, where the amplitude of the oscillation is found maximal, both mechanisms combine to maximize the wind response to the front fluctuations. Between the equator and the coast, a low-level secondary atmospheric circulation takes control of the surface wind acceleration or deceleration around 3°N, which reduces the influence of the SST front fluctuations.

Description: The purpose of the operational-oriented system COALITION ( C ontext and Scale Oriented Thunderstorm Satellite Predictors Development) is to automatically detect severe thunderstorms early in their development and consequently help weather forecasters to increase lead time when issuing severe weather warnings. This new object-oriented system integrates data provided by different sources. Data from Meteosat Second Generation Rapid Scan Service, weather radar and numerical weather prediction, as well as climatology are utilized by the system. One of its primary purposes is to use all the best operationally available information about convective processes and to integrate it into a heuristic model. Furthermore the orographic forcing, which is often neglected in heuristic nowcasting models, is taken into account and included in the system as an additional convective triggering mechanism. This is particularly important for areas characterized by complex orography like the Alpine region. The COALITION algorithm merges evolving thunderstorm properties with selected predictors. The forecasted evolution of the storm is the result of the interaction between convective signatures and surrounding storm environment. Eight different "object-environment" interactions are analysed in eight modules, providing ensemble nowcasts of thunderstorm attributes (satellite- and radar-based) for the following 60 minutes. All ensemble nowcasts are then combined through a weighting and thresholding scheme and the results are summarized into a single graphical map in order to facilitate user interpretation. The COALITION nowcast system has an update frequency of 5 minutes. The output highlights the cells having a high probability of severe thunderstorm development within the next 30 minutes. Verification statistics confirm that COALITION is able to nowcast the intensity of developing convective cells with sufficient skill up to a lead time of about 20 minutes.

Description: Sea ice detection with space-based LIDAR The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4681-4701, 2013 Author(s): S. Rodier, Y. Hu, and M. Vaughan Monitoring long-term climate change in the Polar Regions relies on accurate, detailed and repeatable measurements of geophysical processes and states. These regions are among the Earth's most vulnerable ecosystems, and measurements there have shown rapid changes in the seasonality and the extent of snow and sea ice coverage. The authors have recently developed a promising new technique that uses lidar surface measurements from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission to infer ocean surface ice-water phase. CALIPSO's 532 nm depolarization ratio measurements of the ocean surface are uniquely capable of providing information about the ever-changing sea surface state within the Polar Regions. With the finer resolution of the CALIPSO footprint (90 m diameter, spaced 335 m apart) and its ability to acquire measurements during both daytime and nighttime orbit segments and in the presence of clouds, the CALIPSO sea ice product provides fine-scale information on mixed phase scenes and can be used to assess/validate the estimates of sea-ice concentration currently provided by passive sensors. This paper describes the fundamentals of the CALIPSO sea-ice detection and classification technique. We present retrieval results from a six-year study, which are compared to existing data sets obtained by satellite-based passive remote sensors.

Description: In late February 2010 the extraordinary windstorm Xynthia crossed over Southwestern and Central Europe and caused severe damage, affecting particularly the Spanish and French Atlantic coasts. The storm was embedded in uncommon large-scale atmospheric and boundary conditions prior to and during its development, namely enhanced sea surface temperatures (SST) within the low-level entrainment zone of air masses, an unusual southerly position of the polar jet stream, and a remarkable split jet structure in the upper troposphere. To analyse the processes that led to the rapid intensification of this exceptional storm originating close to the subtropics (30°N), the sensitivity of the cyclone intensification to latent heat release is determined using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced with ERA-Interim data. A control simulation with observed SST shows that moist and warm air masses originating from the subtropical North Atlantic were involved in the cyclogenesis process and led to the formation of a vertical tower with high values of potential vorticity (PV). Sensitivity studies with reduced SST or increased laminar boundary roughness for heat led to reduced surface latent heat fluxes. This induced both a weaker and partly retarded development of the cyclone and a weakening of the PV-tower together with reduced diabatic heating rates, particularly at lower and mid levels. We infer that diabatic processes played a crucial role during the phase of rapid deepening of Xynthia and thus to its intensity over the Southeastern North Atlantic. We suggest that windstorms like Xynthia may occur more frequently under future climate conditions due to the warming SSTs and potentially enhanced latent heat release, thus increasing the windstorm risk for Southwestern Europe.

Description: We present a series of idealized numerical model experiments to investigate aspects of deep convection in tropical depressions, including the effects of a boundary layer wind structure on storm structure, especially on vertical vorticity production and updraught splitting, and the combined effects of horizontal and vertical shear on vertical vorticity production, with and without background rotation. In warm-cored disturbances such as tropical depressions, the vertical shear and horizontal vorticity change sign at some level near the top of the boundary layer so that, unlike in the typical middle-latitude ‘supercell’ storm, the tilting of horizontal vorticity by a convective updraught leads not only to dipole patterns of vertical vorticity, but also to a reversal in sign of the updraught rotation with height. This finding has implications for understanding the merger of convectively-induced vorticity anomalies during vortex evolution. Ambient cyclonic horizontal shear and/or cyclonic vertical vorticity favour amplification of the cyclonically-rotating gyre of the dipole. Consistent with an earlier study, storm splitting occurs in environments with pure horizontal shear as well as pure vertical shear, but the morphology of splitting is different. In both situations, splitting is found to require a relatively unstable sounding and relatively strong wind shear.

Description: Simulating the role of gravel on the dynamics of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4703-4740, 2013 Author(s): S. Yi, J. Chen, Q. Wu, and Y. Ding Gravel (particle size ≥ 2 mm) is common in soil profiles of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). It has different thermal and hydrological properties than other fine mineral soils (particle size 〈 2 mm), which may have significant impacts on the thermal and hydrological processes of soil. However, few models have considered gravel. In this study, we implemented the thermal and hydraulic properties of gravel into the Dynamic Organic Soil-Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to develop new schemes to simulate the dynamics of permafrost on the QTP. Results showed that: (1) the widely used Farouki thermal scheme always simulated higher thermal conductivity of frozen soils than unfrozen soils with the same soil water content; therefore it tends to overestimate permafrost thickness strongly; (2) there exists a soil moisture threshold, below which the new set of schemes with gravel simulated smaller thermal conductivity of frozen soils than unfrozen soils; (3) soil with gravel has higher hydraulic conductivity and poorer water retention capability; and simulations with gravel were usually drier than those without gravel; and (4) the new schemes simulated faster upward degradation than downward degradation; and the simulated permafrost thicknesses were sensitive to the fraction of gravel, the gravel size, the thickness of soil with gravel, and the subsurface drainage. To reduce the uncertainties in the projection of permafrost degradation on the QTP, more effort should be made to: (1) developing robust relationships between soil thermal and hydraulic properties and gravel characteristics based on laboratory work; and (2) compiling spatial datasets of the vertical distribution of gravel content based on measurements during drilling or the digging of soil pits.

Description: Ice volume estimates for the Himalaya–Karakoram region: evaluating different methods The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4813-4854, 2013 Author(s): H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. A variety of different methodologies exist but there is a lack of systematic comparative analysis thereof. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. Here, three volume–area (V–A) relations, a slope-dependent estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a complete glacier inventory of the HK region. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the input glacier areas, and model approaches and parameters on the resulting total ice volumes. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 km 3 to 6455 km 3 , depending on the approach. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses while V–A relations show stronger deviations. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation. More ice-thickness measurements are needed to improve models and results in the future.

Description: Black carbon concentrations from a Tibetan Plateau ice core spanning 1843–1982: recent increases due to emissions and glacier melt The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4855-4880, 2013 Author(s): M. Jenkins, S. Kaspari, S. Kang, B. Grigholm, and P. A. Mayewski Black carbon (BC) deposited on snow and glacier surfaces can reduce albedo and lead to accelerated melt. An ice core recovered from Guoqu glacier on Mt. Geladaindong and analyzed using a Single Particle Soot Photometer provides the first long-term (1843–1982) record of BC concentrations from the Central Tibetan Plateau. The highest concentrations are observed from 1975–1982, which corresponds to a 2.0-fold and 2.4-fold increase in average and median values, respectively, relative to 1843–1940. BC concentrations post-1940 are also elevated relative to the earlier portion of the record. Causes for the higher BC concentrations include increased regional BC emissions and subsequent deposition, and melt induced enrichment of BC, with the melt potentially accelerated due to the presence of BC at the glacier surface. A qualitative comparison of the BC and Fe (used as a dust proxy) records suggests that if changes in the concentrations of absorbing impurities at the glacier surface have influenced recent glacial melt, the melt may be due to the presence of BC rather than dust. Guoqu glacier has received no net ice accumulation since the 1980s, and is a potential example of a glacier where an increase in the equilibrium line altitude is exposing buried high impurity layers. That BC concentrations in the uppermost layers of the Geladaindong ice core are not substantially higher relative to deeper in the ice core suggests that some of the BC that must have been deposited on Guoqu glacier via wet or dry deposition between 1983 and 2005 has been removed from the surface of the glacier, potentially via supraglacial or englacial meltwater.

Description: 3D-VAR multilayer assimilation of X-band SAR data into a detailed snowpack model The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4881-4912, 2013 Author(s): X. V. Phan, L. Ferro-Famil, M. Gay, Y. Durand, M. Dumont, S. Morin, S. Allain, G. D'Urso, and A. Girard We introduce a variational data assimilation scheme to assimilate X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data into a snowpack evolution model. The structure properties of a snowpack, such as snow density and grain optical diameter of each layer, are simulated over a period of time by the snow metamorphism model Crocus, fed by the local reanalysis SAFRAN at a French alpine location. These parameters are used as inputs of an Electromagnetic Backscattering Model (EBM) based on Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory, which calculates the simulated total backscattering coefficient. Next, 3D-VAR data assimilation is implemented in order to minimize the discrepancies between model simulations and observations obtained from SAR acquisitions, by modifying the parameters of a multilayer snowpack calculated by Crocus. The algorithm then reinitializes Crocus with the optimized snowpack structure properties, and therefore allows it to continue the simulation of snowpack evolution where adjustments based on remote sensing data has been taken into account. Results obtained using TerraSAR-X acquisitions on Argentière Glacier (Mont-Blanc massif, French Alps) show the high potential of this method for improving snow cover simulation.

Description: Observations have been obtained within an intense (precipitation rates 〉 50 mm hour -1 ) narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) embedded within a broader region of stratiform precipitation. In-situ data were obtained from an aircraft which flew near a steerable dual-polarisation Doppler radar. The observations were obtained to characterise the microphysical properties of cold frontal clouds, with an emphasis on ice and precipitation formation and development. Primary ice nucleation near cloud top (−55°C) appeared to be enhanced by convective features. However, ice multiplication led to the largest ice particle number concentrations being observed at relatively high temperatures (〉 −10°C). The multiplication process (most likely rime-splintering) occurs when stratiform precipitation interacts with supercooled water generated in the NCFR. Graupel was notably absent in the data obtained. Ice multiplication processes are known to have a strong impact in glaciating isolated convective clouds, but have rarely been studied within larger organised convective systems such as NCFRs. Secondary ice particles will impact on precipitation formation and cloud dynamics due to their relatively small size and high number density. Further modelling studies are required to quantify the effects of rime splintering on precipitation and dynamics in frontal rainbands. Available parameterizations used to diagnose the particle size distributions do not account for the influence of ice multiplication. This deficiency in parameterizations is likely to be important in some cases for modelling the evolution of cloud systems and the precipitation formation. Ice multiplication has significant impact on artefact removal from in-situ particle imaging probes.

Description: This paper proposes a selective ensemble mean technique for tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast based on the errors of ensemble prediction system (EPS) members at short lead times (SLTs, 12 h in this study). The means (SEAV) and weighted means (SEWE) of selected EPS members are applied to EPS products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and China Meteorological Administration for 35 TCs in the Western North Pacific in 2010 and 2011. Verification results show that SEAV behaves better than SEWE, with a skill of 5% to 30% over relevant ensemble means of EPS within 72 h. The SEAV method is the most effective for the JMA EPS, with a skill of 10% even at 96 h. SEAV predictions are compared with the high-resolution deterministic model predictions of ECMWF and several official forecasts, with special consideration given to the time delay associated with numerical model products in operation. The SEAV for the ECMWF EPS can overcome the high-resolution ECMWF deterministic model at 24 h. Case analyses and sensitivity tests on the error thresholds of member selection and SLT lead times are also presented in this paper.

Description: The predictive quality of an ensemble model of cirrus ice crystals to model passive and active measurements of ice cloud, from the ultraviolet (UV) to the microwave, is tested. The ensemble model predicts ice mass ∝ D 2 (m-D), where D is the maximum dimension of the ice crystal, and m is the mass. This predicted m-D relationship is applied to a moment estimation parametrization of the particle size distribution (PSD), to estimate the PSD shape, given ice water content (IWC) and in-cloud temperature. The same microphysics is applied across the electromagnetic spectrum to model UV, infrared, microwave and radar observations. The short-wave measurements consist of airborne UV backscatter lidar estimates of the volume extinction coefficient, total solar optical depth, and space-based multi-directional spherical albedo measurements, at 0.865 µm, between the scattering angles 85 o and 125 o . The airborne long-wave measurements consist of high-resolution interferometer upwelling brightness temperatures, obtained between the wavelengths of about 3.45 µm and 4.1 µm, and 8.0 µm to 12.0 µm. The low frequency measurements consist of ground-based Chilbolton 35 GHz radar reflectivity measurements and space-based upwelling 190 GHz brightness temperature measurements. The predictive quality of the ensemble model is demonstrated to be generally within the experimental uncertainty of the lidar backscatter estimates of the volume extinction coefficient and total solar optical depth. The ensemble model prediction of the high-resolution brightness temperature measurements is generally within ±2 K and ±1K, at solar and infrared wavelengths, respectively. The 35 GHz radar reflectivity and 190 GHz brightness temperatures are generally simulated to within ±2 dBZ e , and ±2 K, respectively. The directional spherical albedo observations suggest that the scattering phase function of the most randomized ensemble model gives the best fit to the measurements (generally within ±3%). This paper demonstrates that the ensemble model, assuming the same microphysics , is physically consistent across the electromagnetic spectrum.

Description: This paper investigates two schemes that perturb sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture content (SMC) in the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS), to address a known deficiency of a lack of ensemble spread near the surface. Results from a two-month long trial during the northern hemisphere summer show positive benefits from these schemes. These include a decrease in the spread deficit of surface temperature and improved probabilistic verification scores. SST perturbations exhibit a stronger impact than SMC perturbations, but when combined the increased spread from the two schemes is cumulative. A regional ensemble system driven by the global ensemble members largely reflects the same changes seen in the global ensemble but cycling fields, like SMC, between successive regional forecasts does show some benefit.

Description: The physical basis for gas transport through polar firn: a case study at Summit, Greenland The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2455-2487, 2013 Author(s): A. C. Adolph and M. R. Albert Compared to other natural porous materials, relatively little is known about the physical nature of polar firn. This intricate network of ice and pore space that comprises the top 60–100 m of the polar ice sheets is the framework that forms the natural archive of past climate information. Despite the many implications for ice core interpretation, direct measurements of physical properties throughout the firn column are limited. Models of gas transport through firn are used to interpret in-situ chemical data which is retrieved to analyze past atmospheric composition. These traditional models treat the firn as a "black box," with gas transport parameters tuned to match gas concentrations with depth to known atmospheric histories. Though this method has been largely successful and provided very useful insights, there are still many questions and uncertainties to be addressed. This work seeks to understand the impact of firn structure on gas transport in firn from a first principles standpoint through direct measurements of permeability, gas diffusivity and microstructure. The relationships between gas transport properties and microstructure will be characterized and compared to existing relationships for general porous media. Direct measurements of gas diffusivity are compared to diffusivities deduced from models based on firn air chemical sampling. Our comparison illuminates the primary importance of including microstructural parameters, beyond just porosity or density, in mass transport modeling, and it provides insights about the nature of gas transport throughout the firn column. Guidance is provided for development of next-generation firn air transport models.

Description: Solving Richards Equation for snow improves snowpack meltwater runoff estimations The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2373-2412, 2013 Author(s): N. Wever, C. Fierz, C. Mitterer, H. Hirashima, and M. Lehning The runoff from the snow cover during spring snow melt or rain-on-snow events is an important factor in the hydrological cycle. In this study, water transport schemes for a 1-dimensional physical based snowpack model are compared to 14 yr of lysimeter measurements at a high alpine site. The schemes include a simple bucket-type approach, an approximation of Richards Equation (RE), and the full RE. The results show that daily sums of runoff are strongly related to a positive energy balance of the snow cover and therefore, all water transport schemes show very similar performance in terms of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficients (around 0.59) and r 2 values (around 0.77). Timing of the arrival of meltwater in spring at the bottom of the snowpack showed differences between the schemes, where especially in the bucket-type and approximated RE approach, meltwater release is slower than in the measurements. Overall, solving RE for the snow cover yields the best agreement between modelled and measured runoff. On sub-daily time scales, the water transport schemes behave very differently. Also here, solving RE provides the highest agreement between modelled and measured runoff in terms of NSE coefficient (0.48), where other water transport schemes loose any predictive power. This appears to be mainly due to bad timing of meltwater release during the day. Accordingly, solving RE for the snow cover improves several aspects of modelling snow cover runoff. The additional computational cost was found to be in the order of a factor of 1.5.

Description: An upper-bound estimate for the accuracy of volume-area scaling The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2293-2331, 2013 Author(s): D. Farinotti and M. Huss Volume-area scaling is the most popular method for estimating the ice volume of large glacier samples. Here, a series of resampling experiments based on different sets of synthetic data are presented in order to derive an upper-bound estimate (i.e. a level achieved only with ideal conditions) for the accuracy of its application. We also quantify the maximum accuracy expected when scaling is used for determining the glacier volume change, and area change of a given glacier population. A comprehensive set of measured glacier areas, volumes, area and volume changes is evaluated to investigate the impact of real-world data quality on the so assessed accuracies. For populations larger than a few thousand glaciers, the total ice volume can be recovered within 30% if all measurements available worldwide are used for estimating the scaling coefficients. Assuming no systematic biases in ice volume measurements, their uncertainty is of secondary importance. Knowing the individual areas of a glacier sample for two points in time allows recovering the corresponding ice volume change within 40% for populations larger than a few hundred glaciers, both for steady-state and transient geometries. If ice volume changes can be estimated without bias, glacier area changes derived from volume-area scaling show similar uncertainties as for the volume changes. This paper does not aim at making a final judgement about the suitability of volume-area scaling, but provides the means for assessing the accuracy expected from its application.

Description: Evaluation of the snow regime in dynamic vegetation land surface models using field measurements The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2333-2372, 2013 Author(s): E. Kantzas, M. Lomas, S. Quegan, and E. Zakharova An increasing number of studies have demonstrated the significant climatic and ecological changes occurring in the northern latitudes over the past decades. As coupled, earth-system models attempt to describe and simulate the dynamics and complex feedbacks of the Arctic environment, it is important to reduce their uncertainties in short-term predictions by improving the description of both the systems processes and its initial state. This study focuses on snow-related variables and extensively utilizes a historical data set (1966–1996) of field snow measurements acquired across the extend of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) to evaluate a range of simulated snow metrics produced by a variety of land surface models, most of them embedded in IPCC-standard climate models. We reveal model-specific issues in simulating snow dynamics such as magnitude and timings of SWE as well as evolution of snow density. We further employ the field snow measurements alongside novel and model-independent methodologies to extract for the first time (i) a fresh snow density value (57–117 kg m –3 ) for the region and (ii) mean monthly snowpack sublimation estimates across a grassland-dominated western (November–February) [9.2, 6.1, 9.15, 15.25] mm and forested eastern sub-sector (November–March) [1.53, 1.52, 3.05, 3.80, 12.20] mm; we subsequently use the retrieved values to assess relevant model outputs. The discussion session consists of two parts. The first describes a sensitivity study where field data of snow depth and snow density are forced directly into the surface heat exchange formulation of a land surface model to evaluate how inaccuracies in simulating snow metrics affect important modeled variables and carbon fluxes such as soil temperature, thaw depth and soil carbon decomposition. The second part showcases how the field data can be assimilated with ready-available optimization techniques to pinpoint model issues and improve their performance.

Description: Two statistical downscaling models were developed for downscaling monthly GCM outputs to precipitation at a site in north-western Victoria, Australia. The first downscaling model was calibrated and validated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis outputs over the periods of 1950–1989 and 1990–2010 respectively. The projections of precipitation into future were produced by introducing the outputs of HadCM3, ECHAM5, GFDL2.0 and GFDL2.1, pertaining to A2 and B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios to this downscaling model. In this model, the input data used in the development and future projections are not homogeneous, as they originate from two different sources. As a solution to this issue, the second downscaling model was developed and precipitation projections into future were produced with a homogeneous set of inputs. To produce a homogeneous set of inputs to this model, regression relationships were formulated between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis outputs and the 20 th century climate experiment outputs corresponding to the variables used in the first downscaling model obtained from the ensemble consisted of HadCM3, ECHAM5 and GFDL2.0. The outputs of these relationships pertaining to the periods of 1950–1989 and 1990–1999, were used for the calibration and validation of this downscaling model respectively. Using the outputs of HadCM3, ECHAM5 and GFDL2.0 pertaining to A2 and B1 emission scenarios on these relationships, inputs for the second downscaling model pertaining to the period of 2000–2099 were generated. The first downscaling model with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis outputs, showed a high Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.75 over the period 1950–1999. When this downscaling model was run with the 20 th century climate experiment outputs of HadCM3, ECHAM5, GFDL2.0 and GFDL2.1, it exhibited limited performances over the period 1950–1999, which was indicated by relatively low NSEs of −0.62, -2.54, -0.40 and −0.48 respectively. The second downscaling model displayed a NSE of 0.35 over the period 1950–1999.

Description: The U.S. Navy's relocatable (RELO) ensemble prediction system is fully described and is examined in the Gulf of Mexico for 2010. After briefly describing the Ensemble Transfer (ET) method for the initial perturbation generation, we introduce a new time-deformation technique to generate the surface forcing perturbations from the atmospheric model fields. The extended forecast time (EFT) is introduced to quantify the advantages of the ensemble mean forecasts over a single deterministic forecast. The ensemble spread and its growth are investigated together with their relations with the ensemble forecast accuracy, reliability and skill. Similar to many other operational ensemble forecast systems at Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers, the initial analysis error is underestimated by the technique used in the data-assimilation (DA) system. Growth of the ocean ensemble spread is also found to lag the growth of the ensemble mean error, a tendency attributed to insufficiently accounting for model-related uncertainties. As an initial step, we randomly perturb the two most important parameters in the ocean model mixing parameterizations, namely the Smagorinsky horizontal and Mellor-Yamada vertical mixing schemes. We examine three different parameter perturbation schemes based on both uniform and Gaussian distributions. It is found that all three schemes improve the ensemble spread to a certain extent, particularly the scheme with Gaussian distribution of perturbations imposed on both the horizontal and vertical mixing parameters. The findings in this paper indicate that the RELO ensemble forecast demonstrates superior accuracy and skill relative to a single deterministic forecast for all the variables and over all the domains considered in this paper. The ensemble spread provides valuable estimate of forecast uncertainty. However, the RELO uncertainty forecast capability could be further improved by accounting for more model-related uncertainties, for example, by the development of an error parameterization that imposes stochastic forcing at each model grid point.

Description: The gamma family of probability densities has recently been used to model raindrop size. The traditional approach of using method of moments to estimate the gamma distribution parameters, however, is known to be biased and can have substantial errors. A recently-developed approach combining moment information and a weighted least squares analysis generally produces substantially better results. Other procedures superior to the method of moments approach include maximum likelihood. In particular, maximum likelihood estimates have been shown to outperform method of moments estimators both in the case in which the full range of drop sizes are observed as well as the case in which small drop sizes fail to be observed because of the inability of disdrometers to record observations below a threshold. The foregoing comments on maximum likelihood concern the situation in which drop sizes are measured on a continuous scale. In this work we consider drop sizes from gamma distributions which are classified into broad size bins, as would be the case with data obtained from many disdrometers; this requires some modification of the maximum likelihood procedure. We do also allow for the possibility of drop sizes below a threshold or above another threshold not being observed. Maximum likelihood performance in this case is investigated through simulation of volume sampling from gamma distributions with known parameters. We compare the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates with those of method of moments (only a truncated-data version is viable) and the recently developed weighted least squares procedure, and also apply the three estimation procedures to some experimental data. Since the experimental data are surface data we indicate how drop fall velocity may be incorporated to obtain parameters for the volume distributions from the surface data.

Description: Despite the availability of several atmospheric reanalyses (e.g. ERA-Interim) there exists both considerable uncertainty in surface forcing fields for ice/ocean modelling and sensitivity to the choice of product used. Here we introduce a relatively high-resolution alternative forcing data set for ice-ocean models derived from the Canadian Meteorological Centre's (CMC) Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS). A set of daily 30 hr reforecasts is produced using the GDPS 33 km resolution model providing hourly atmospheric forcing fields for the period 2002–2011. The CMC GDPS Reforecasts (CGRF) are compared to ERA-Interim and several observational datasets to evaluate their suitability for forcing ocean models. In particular, the CGRF surface temperature, humidity and winds show equivalent biases to those found in ERA-interim. Moreover, the higher resolution of the CGRFs permit a more detailed representation of atmospheric structures and topographic steering resulting in finer-scale coastal features and wind stress curl. While the CGRF dataset is not a reanalysis and thus is expected to be less well constrained by available observations, its higher resolution and small bias make it an attractive alternative for forcing ice/ocean models.

Description: Spatial debris-cover effect on the maritime glaciers of Mount Gongga, south-eastern Tibetan Plateau The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2413-2453, 2013 Author(s): Y. Zhang, Y. Hirabayashi, K. Fujita, S. Liu, and Q. Liu The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings contain a large number of debris-covered glaciers, on which debris cover affects glacier response to climate change by altering ice melting rates and spatial patterns of mass loss. Insufficient spatial distribution of debris thickness data makes it difficult to analyze regional debris-cover effects. Mount Gongga glaciers, maritime glaciers in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau, are characterized by a substantial reduction in glacier length and ice mass in recent decades. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER)-derived thermal property of the debris layer reveals that 68% of the glaciers have extensive mantles of supraglacial debris in their ablation zones, in which the proportion of debris cover to total glacier area varies from 1.74% to 53.0%. Using a surface energy-mass balance model accounting for the debris-cover effect applied at a regional scale, we find that although the presence of supraglacial debris has a significant insulating effect on heavily debris-covered glaciers, it accelerates ice melting on ~ 10.2% of the total ablation area and produces rapid wastage of ~ 25% of the debris-covered glaciers, resulting in the similar mass losses between debris-covered and debris-free glaciers. Widespread debris cover also facilitates the development of active terminus regions. Regional differences in the debris-cover effect are apparent, highlighting the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier status and hydrology in both the Tibetan Plateau and other mountain ranges around the world.

Description: Decadal changes from a multi-temporal glacier inventory of Svalbard The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 2489-2532, 2013 Author(s): C. Nuth, J. Kohler, M. König, A. von Deschwanden, J. O. Hagen, A. Kääb, G. Moholdt, and R. Pettersson We present a multi-temporal digital inventory of Svalbard glaciers with the most recent from the late 2000s containing 33 775 km 2 of glaciers, or 57% of the total land area of the archipelago. At present, 68% of the glaciated area of Svalbard drains through tidewater glaciers that have a summed terminus width of ~ 740 km. The glaciated area over the entire archipelago has decreased by an average of 80 km 2 a −1 over the past ~ 30 yr, representing a reduction of 7%. For a sample of ~ 400 glaciers (10 000 km 2 ) in the south and west of Spitsbergen, three digital inventories are available from 1930/60s, 1990 and 2007 from which we calculate average changes during 2 epochs. In the more recent epoch, the terminus retreat was larger than in the earlier epoch while area shrinkage was smaller. The contrasting pattern may be explained by the decreased lateral wastage of the glacier tongues. Temporal retreat rates for individual glaciers show a mix of accelerating and decelerating trends, reflecting the large spatial variability of glacier types and climatic/dynamic response times in Svalbard. Last, retreat rates estimated by dividing glacier area changes by the tongue width are larger than centerline retreat due to a more encompassing frontal change estimate with inclusion of lateral area loss.

Description: The effect of black carbon on reflectance of snow in the accumulation area of glaciers in the Baspa basin, Himachal Pradesh, India The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 1359-1382, 2013 Author(s): A. V. Kulkarni, G. Vinay Kumar, H. S. Negi, J. Srinivasan, and S. K. Satheesh Himalayan glaciers are being extensively debated in scientific and public forums, as changes in their distribution can significantly affect the availability of water in many rivers originating in the region. The distribution of glaciers can be influenced by mass balance, and most of the glaciers located in the Pir Panjal and Greater Himalayan mountain ranges are losing mass at the rate of almost a meter per year. The Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) has also shifted upward by 400 m in the last two decades. This upward migration of ELA and the loss in mass could have been influenced by changes in temperature, precipitation and by the deposition of black carbon in the accumulation area of glaciers. The deposition of black carbon can reduce the albedo of snow in the accumulation area leading to faster melting of snow and causing more negative mass balance. In this investigation, a change in reflectance in the accumulation area of the Baspa basin is analysed for the year 2009, as the region has experienced extensive forest fires along with northern Indian biomass burning. The investigation has shown that: (1) The number of forest fires in the summer of 2009 was substantially higher than in any other year between 2001 and 2010; (2) the drop in reflectance in the visible region from April to May in the accumulation area was significantly higher in the year 2009 than in any other year from 2000 to 2012; (3) the temperature of the region was substantially lower than the freezing point during the active fire period of 2009, indicating the small influence of liquid water and grain size; (4) the drop in reflectance was observed only in the visible region, indicating role of contamination; (5) in the visible region, a mean drop in reflectance of 21± 5% was observed during the active fire period in the accumulation area. At some places, the drop was as high as 50 ± 5%. This can only be explained by the deposition of black carbon. The study suggests that a change in snow albedo in the accumulation area due to the deposition of black carbon from anthropogenic and natural causes can influence the mass balance of the glaciers in the Baspa basin, Himachal Pradesh, India.

Description: Supercooled interfacial water in fine grained soils probed by dielectric spectroscopy The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 1441-1493, 2013 Author(s): A. Lorek and N. Wagner Water as thermodynamic state parameter affects nearly all physical, chemical and biological processes on the earth. Recent Mars observations as well as laboratory investigations suggest that water is also a key factor of current physical and chemical processes on the martian surface, e.g. rheological phenomena. Therefore it is of particular interest to get information about the liquid like state of water on martian analog soils in the temperature range below 0 °C. In this context, a parallel plate capacitor has been developed to obtain isothermal dielectric spectra of fine grained soils in the frequency range from 10 Hz to 1.1 MHz at martian like temperatures down to −70 °C. Two martian analogue soils have been investigated: a Ca-Bentonite (specific surface of 237 m 2 g −1 , up to 9.4% w/w gravimetric water content) and JSC Mars 1, a volcanic ash (specific surface of 146 m 2 g −1 , up to 7.4% w/w ). Three soil-specific relaxation processes are observed in the investigated frequency-temperature range: two weak high frequency processes (bound or hydrated water as well as ice) and a strong low frequency process due to counter ion relaxation and the Maxwell–Wagner effect. To characterize the dielectric relaxation behavior, a generalized fractional dielectric relaxation model is applied assuming three active relaxation processes with relaxation time of the i th process according to an Eyring equation. The real part of effective complex soil permittivity at 350 kHz was used to determine ice and liquid like water content by means of the Birchak or CRIM equation. There are evidence that Bentonite down to −70 °C has a liquid like water content of 1.17 monolayers and JSC Mars 1 a liquid like water content of 1.96 mono layers.

Description: We examine the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulation of the cold-point tropopause (CPT) temperatures. An analysis of approximately 5 decades (in most cases 1950s to near-present) of radiosonde data from eleven near-equatorial stations, distributed along the Equator, shows that the ENSO influence on the QBO is quite zonally symmetric. At all stations analyzed, the QBO has larger amplitude and longer period during La Niña conditions than during El Niño over this total period. We also show that, as a consequence of the ENSO influences on QBO periods and amplitudes, the differences between the warmer CPT temperatures during QBO westerly shear conditions and colder temperatures during QBO easterly shear conditions, are larger during La Niña than during El Niño for all stations considered for the entire period considered here. This strengthens earlier findings that the greatest dehydration of air entering the stratosphere from the troposphere occurs during the winter under La Niña and easterly QBO conditions. Also, stratosphere /troposphere wind and temperature profiles are derived to establish the degree of QBO downward penetration to influence zonal winds and temperatures in the upper troposphere.

Description: Influence of snow depth distribution on surface roughness in alpine terrain: a multi-scale approach The Cryosphere Discussions, 7, 4633-4680, 2013 Author(s): J. Veitinger, B. Sovilla, and R. S. Purves In alpine terrain, the snow covered winter surface deviates from its underlying summer terrain due to the progressive smoothing caused by snow accumulation. Terrain smoothing is believed to be an important factor in avalanche formation, avalanche dynamics and affects surface heat transfer, energy balance as well as snow depth distribution. To characterize the effect of snow on terrain we use the concept of roughness. Roughness is calculated for several snow surfaces and its corresponding underlying terrain for three alpine basins in the Swiss Alps characterized by low medium and high terrain roughness. To this end, elevation models of winter and summer terrain are derived from high-resolution (1 m) measurements performed by airborne and terrestrial LIDAR. We showed that on basin scale terrain smoothing not only depends on mean snow depth in the basin but also on its variability. Terrain smoothing can be modelled in function of mean snow depth and its standard deviation using a power law. However, a relationship between terrain smoothing and snow depth does not exist on a pixel scale. Further we demonstrated the high persistence of snow surface roughness even in between winter seasons. Those persistent patterns might be very useful to improve the representation of a winter terrain without modelling of the snow cover distribution. This can potentially improve avalanche release area definition and in the long term natural hazard management strategies.

Description: The variability of turbulent momentum flux in neutral and unstable atmospheric boundary layers is characterised by analysing surface-layer measurements and data from large-eddy simulations (LES). The method involves multiresolution (MR) decomposition of vertical wind and advected variables into eddy fluctuations on different scales. It provides a measure of the amount of flux variability that stems from same-scale correlations and from combinations of different scale eddy fluctuations. Combining two analysis methods enabled MR component cospectra to be introduced in order to study the contribution of downward and upward flux on different scales. These component cospectra were used to investigate at which scales most of the upward and downward momentum flux occurs. By using MR spectra, cospectra, and flow visualisation this investigation provides insights into turbulence structure and fluxes in neutral and unstable stratification. It is shown that most of the flux variability in the lower part of the boundary layer can be characterised as a combination of larger scale streamwise elongated horizontal wind streaks and smaller scale vertical wind fluctuations. These streaks are found to account for a large part of downward momentum flux at relatively large, energy-containing scales. Most of the upward momentum flux is found to occur at smaller scales. This can be interpreted as showing that upward momentum flux in these conditions is caused by the generation of smaller scale secondary motions when larger scale turbulence elements break down and dissipate. Differences in the height dependence of turbulence structure and momentum flux for neutral and unstably stratified conditions are also investigated and related to the existence of wind streaks and horizontal rolls in these different conditions.

Description: Idealized simulations on an f -plane of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall under a quiescent environment in the Southern Hemisphere are performed to investigate the effects of land-sea surface contrast on precipitation. In the control simulation with realistic roughness and moisture over land which is to the south of the TC, the simulated vortex moves toward land due to a land-induced steering flow. The abrupt decrease (increase) of tangential wind at the surface leads to convergence (divergence) on the onshore (offshore) flow side. Enhanced convergence at the top of the planetary boundary layer is found both in the onshore and offshore side, which is caused by the advection from the surface and the enhanced offshore radial wind. The boundary layer top convergence pattern is consistent with the rainfall distribution. Vertical wind shear develops during the landfall process associated with the low- and upper-level asymmetric flows across the model domain. The wavenumber-1-like low-level asymmetric flow is introduced by an asymmetric geopotential height field that is generated by the large area of frictionally-induced convergence at the onshore side and divergence at the offshore side. The upper-level asymmetric flow is attributed to asymmetric convection and associated diabatic heating after landfall. Most rainfall is found in the down-shear right quadrant, which is consistent with previous studies that focused on the effect of environmental shear. Although the existence of feedback from the vertical wind shear to rainfall remains an open question, the relation between maximum rainfall and vertical wind shear is robust especially when the shear magnitude is large after landfall.

Description: Air temperature variability over three glaciers in the Ortles-Cevedale (Italian Alps): effects of glacier disintegration, intercomparison of calculation methods, and impacts on mass balance modeling The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 6147-6192, 2014 Author(s): L. Carturan, F. Cazorzi, F. De Blasi, and G. Dalla Fontana Glacier mass balance models rely on accurate spatial calculation of input data, in particular air temperature. Lower temperatures (the so-called glacier cooling effect), and lower temperature variability (the so-called glacier damping effect) generally occur over glaciers, compared to ambient conditions. These effects, which depend on the geometric characteristics of glaciers and display a high spatial and temporal variability, have been mostly investigated on medium- to large-size glaciers so far, while observations on smaller ice bodies are scarce. Using a dataset from 8 on-glacier and 4 off-glacier weather stations, collected in summer 2010 and 2011, we analyzed the air temperature variability and wind regime over three different glaciers in the Ortles-Cevedale. The magnitude of the cooling effect and the occurrence of katabatic boundary layer (KBL) processes showed remarkable differences among the three ice bodies, suggesting the likely existence of important reinforcing mechanisms during glacier decay and disintegration. None of the methods proposed in the literature for calculating on-glacier temperature from off-glacier data fully reproduced our observations. Among them, the more physically-based procedure of Greuell and Böhm (1998) provided the best overall results where the KBL prevail, but it was not effective elsewhere (i.e. on smaller ice bodies and close to the glacier margins). The accuracy of air temperature estimations strongly impacted the results from a mass balance model which was applied to the three investigated glaciers. Most importantly, even small temperature deviations caused distortions in parameter calibration, thus compromising the model generalizability.

Description: Since 2007 a large decline in Arctic sea ice has been observed. The large-scale atmospheric circulation response to this decline is investigated in ERA-Interim reanalyses and HadGEM3 climate model experiments. In winter, post-2007 observed circulation anomalies over the Arctic, North Atlantic and Eurasia are small compared to interannual variability. In summer, the post-2007 observed circulation is dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly over Greenland which has a large signal-to-noise ratio. Climate model experiments driven by observed SST and sea ice anomalies are able to capture the summertime pattern of observed circulation anomalies, although the magnitude is a third of that observed. The experiments suggest warm SSTs and reduced sea ice in the Labrador Sea lead to warm temperature anomalies in lower troposphere which weaken the westerlies over North America through thermal wind balance. The experiments also capture cyclonic anomalies over north-western Europe, which are consistent with downstream Rossby wave propagation.

Description: Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA polar orbiting satellites measured infrared radiances in the 15 micron CO 2 band between late 1978 and mid-2006. From these radiances a time series of layer mean stratospheric temperatures has been derived by several groups. Discrepancies in these temperature analyses have been highlighted recently and efforts are now underway to resolve the differences between them. This paper is the Met Office response summarising the issues to be resolved in creating a climate data record from the different SSUs, including corrections for radiometric, spectroscopic and tidal differences. Calibration issues identified include the SSU space view anomaly and radiometric anomalies in the NOAA-9 observations. The spectroscopic correction required for changing pressures in the pressure modulator cells is also outlined. The most important correction for the time series is for the solar diurnal and semi-diurnal tides as the satellite overpass local times change. Comparisons with other stratospheric temperature trend analyses are made and the reasons for the differences discussed. The time series presented here show sustained drops in stratospheric temperatures at all levels after the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions but only small trends to lower temperatures between eruptions.

Description: A high-order global shallow water model on Yin-Yang grid has been developed by using the multi-moment constrained finite volume (MCV) method. Different from the traditional finite volume method, more degrees of freedom (DOFs) which are the values at the solution points within each mesh element are defined and updated in time. The time evolution equations for these point values are derived from a set constraint conditions in terms of the so-called multi-moment quantities, such as the point value (PV), the volume-integrated average (VIA) and derivative (DV). Different moments use different forms of equations which are all consistent with the shallow water equations, among which the VIA moment is computed from a finite volume formulation of flux form that guarantees the rigorous numerical conservation. A fourth-order formulation is devised with the third-order reconstruction built over each element using the DOFs locally available. A simple and orthogonal overset grid, the Yin-Yang grid, is used to represent the spherical geometry with quasi-uniform grid spacing. The resulting global shallow water model is attractive in algorithmic simplicity and computational efficiency. The model has been validated by widely used benchmark tests. The numerical results of the present model are competitive to most existing advanced models.

Description: Strategy of valid 14 C dates choice in syngenetic permafrost The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 5589-5621, 2014 Author(s): Y. K. Vasil'chuk and A. C. Vasil'chuk The main problem of radiocarbon dating within permafrost is the uncertain reliability of the 14 C dates. Syngenetic sediments contain allochthonous organic deposit that originated at a distance from its present position. Due to the very good preservation of organic materials in permafrost conditions and numerous re-burials of the fossils from ancient deposits into younger ones the dates could be both younger and older than the true age of dated material. The strategy for the most authentic radiocarbon date selection for dating of syncryogenic sediments is considered taking into account the fluvial origin of the syngenetic sediments. The re-deposition of organic material is discussed in terms of cyclic syncryogenic sedimentation and also the possible re-deposition of organic material in subaerial-subaqueous conditions. The advantages and the complications of dating organic micro-inclusions from ice wedges by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) method are discussed applying to true age of dated material search. Radiocarbon dates of different organic materials from the same samples are compared. The younger age of the yedoma from cross-sections of Duvanny Yar in Kolyma River and Mamontova Khayata in the mouth of Lena River is substantiated due to the principle of the choice of the youngest 14 C date from the set.

Description: Simulating the Antarctic ice sheet in the Late-Pliocene warm period: PLISMIP-ANT, an ice-sheet model intercomparison project The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 5539-5588, 2014 Author(s): B. de Boer, A. M. Dolan, J. Bernales, E. Gasson, H. Goelzer, N. R. Golledge, J. Sutter, P. Huybrechts, G. Lohmann, I. Rogozhina, A. Abe-Ouchi, F. Saito, and R. S. W. van de Wal In the context of future climate change, understanding the nature and behaviour of ice sheets during warm intervals in Earth history is of fundamental importance. The Late-Pliocene warm period (also known as the PRISM interval: 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present) can serve as a potential analogue for projected future climates. Although Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained, a significant contribution to sea-level rise should be expected from both the Greenland ice sheet and the West and East Antarctic ice sheets based on palaeo sea-level reconstructions. Here, we present results from simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet by means of an international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP-ANT). For the experiments, ice-sheet models including the shallow ice and shelf approximations have been used to simulate the complete Antarctic domain (including grounded and floating ice). We compare the performance of six existing numerical ice-sheet models in simulating modern control and Pliocene ice sheets by a suite of four sensitivity experiments. Ice-sheet model forcing fields are taken from the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean climate model runs for the pre-industrial and the Pliocene. We include an overview of the different ice-sheet models used and how specific model configurations influence the resulting Pliocene Antarctic ice sheet. The six ice-sheet models simulate a comparable present-day ice sheet, although the models are setup with their own parameter settings. For the Pliocene simulations using the Bedmap1 bedrock topography, some models show a small retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, which is thought to have happened during the Pliocene for the Wilkes and Aurora basins. This can be ascribed to either the surface mass balance, as the HadCM3 Pliocene climate shows a significant increase over the Wilkes and Aurora basin, or the initial bedrock topography. For the latter, our simulations with the recently published Bedmap2 bedrock topography indicate a significantly larger contribution to Pliocene sea-level rise from the East Antarctic ice sheet for all six models relative to the simulations with Bedmap1.

Description: Snow mass decrease in the Northern Hemisphere (1979/80–2010/11) The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 5623-5644, 2014 Author(s): Z. Li, J. Liu, L. Huang, N. Wang, B. Tian, J. Zhou, Q. Chen, and P. Zhang Snow cover has a key effect on climate change and hydrological cycling, as well as water supply to a sixth of the world's population across the Northern Hemisphere. However, reliable data on trends in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is lacking. Snow water equivalent (SWE) is a common measure of the amount of equivalent water of the snow pack. Here we verify the accuracy of three existing global SWE products and merge the most accurate aspects of them to generate a new SWE product covering the last 32 years (1979/80–2010/11). Using this new SWE product, we show that there has been a significant decreasing trend in the total mass of snow in the Northern Hemisphere. The most notable changes in total snow mass are −16.45 ± 6.68 and −13.55 ± 7.80 Gt year −1 in January and February, respectively. These are followed by March and December, which have trends of −12.58 ± 6.88 and −10.70 ± 5.62 Gt year −1 , respectively, from 1979/80 to 2010/11. During the same period, the temperature in the study area raised 0.17 °C decade −1 , which is thought to be the main reason of SWE decline.

Description: Factors controlling Slope Environmental Lapse Rate (SELR) of temperature in the monsoon and cold-arid glacio-hydrological regimes of the Himalaya The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 5645-5686, 2014 Author(s): R. J. Thayyen and A. P. Dimri Moisture, temperature and precipitation interplay forced through the orographic processes sustains the Himalayan cryospheric system. However, factors controlling the Slope Environmental Lapse Rate (SELR) of temperature along the higher Himalayan mountain slopes across various glacio-hydrologic regimes remain as a key knowledge gap. Present study dwells on the orographic processes driving the moisture–temperature interplay in the monsoon and cold-arid glacio-hydrological regimes of the Himalaya. Systematic data collection at three altitudes between 2540 and 3763 m a.s.l. in the Garhwal Himalaya (hereafter called monsoon regime) and between 3500 and 5600 m a.s.l. in the Ladakh Himalaya (herefater called cold-arid regime) revealed moistrue control on temperature distribution at temporal and spatial scales. Observed daily SELR of temperature ranges between 9.0 to 1.9 °C km −1 and 17.0 to 2.8 °C km −1 in the monsoon and cold-arid regimes respectively highlighting strong regional variability. Moisture influx to the region, either from Indian summer monsoon (ISM) or from Indian winter monsoon (IWM) forced lowering of SELR. This phenophena of "monsoon lowering" of SELR is due to the release latent heat of condensation from orographically focred lifted air parcel. Seasonal response of SELR in the monsoon regime is found to be closly linked with the variations in the local lifting condensation levels (LCL). Contrary to this, cold-arid system is characterised by the extremely high values of daily SELR upto 17 °C km −1 signifying the extremely arid conditions prevailing in summer. Distinctly lower SELR devoid of monsoon lowering at higher altitude sections of monsoon and cold-arid regimes suggests sustained wetter high altitude regimes. We have proposed a SELR model for both glacio-hydrological regimes demostrating with two sections each using a derivative of the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship by deriving monthly SELR indices. It has been proposed that the manifestations of presence or absence of moisture is the single most important factor determining the temperature distribution along the higher Himalayan slopes driven by the orographic forcings. This work also suggests that the arbitary use of temperature lapse rate to extrapolate temperature to the higher Himalaya is extremely untenable.

Description: A model study of Abrahamsenbreen, a surging glacier in northern Spitsbergen The Cryosphere Discussions, 8, 5687-5726, 2014 Author(s): J. Oerlemans and W. J. J. van Pelt The climate sensitivity of Abrahamsenbreen, a 20 km long surge-type glacier in northern Spitsbergen, is studied with a simple glacier model. A scheme to describe the surges is included, which makes it possible to account for the effect of surges on the total mass budget of the glacier. A climate reconstruction back to AD 1300, based on ice-core data from Lomonosovfonna and climate records from Longyearbyen, is used to drive the model. The model is calibrated by requesting that it produces the correct Little Ice Age maximum glacier length and simulates the observed magnitude of the 1978-surge. Abrahamsenbreen is strongly out of balance with the current climate. If climatic conditions will remain as they were for the period 1989–2010, the glacier will ultimately shrink to a length of about 4 km (but this will take hundreds of years). For a climate change scenario involving a 2 m yr −1 rise of the equilibrium line from now onwards, we predict that in the year 2100 Abrahamsenbreen will be about 12 km long. The main effect of a surge is to lower the mean surface elevation and to increase the ablation area, thereby causing a negative perturbation of the mass budget. We found that the occurrence of surges leads to a somewhat stronger retreat of the glacier in a warming climate. Because of the very small bed slope, Abrahamsenbreen is sensitive to small perturbations in the equilibrium-line altitude E . For a decrease of E of only 160 m, the glacier would steadily grow into the Woodfjorddalen until after 2000 years it would reach the Woodfjord and calving could slow down the advance.

Description: Linear instability of warm core eddies of constant potential vorticity (PV) is studied in a two layer, finite depth, shallow water ocean. The basic state flow in the constant PV eddy that obeys the gradient balance cannot be described by explicit expressions and can only be solved numerically. The various cases of gradient balance are classified by constructing a canonical formulation that relates any PV value to a value of the angular velocity that has to prevail near the center of the constant PV eddy. The growth-rates of perturbations imposed on the basic state are calculated for a variety of values of the (constant) PV and the depth of the surrounding ocean. The growth-rates i.e. the eigenvalues are calculated numerically by employing a shooting to fitting point method that guarantees that the corresponding eigenfunctions are regular at all singular points. The maximal growth-rates are contoured as functions of PV and ocean depth for azimuthal wavenumber 2 and 3 and the maximum of these growth-rates is of the order of 1 day which is similar to that of a solidly rotating eddy. However, the range angular velocity and ocean depth where the constant PV eddy is unstable is greatly reduced compared to that of a solidly rotating eddy. The instabilities found here are classified in terms of wave-wave interactions by comparing our results in each PV value with the known instabilities of the solidly rotating eddy with the same angular velocity. In the constant PV eddy the Baroclinic instability is filtered out and the range of angular velocity where the Hybrid instability exists is significantly reduced. All instabilities decay monotonically with the increase in ocean depth.

Description: The impact of dust on a six-day pulsation of the West African heat low (WAHL) in summertime (14–20 July 2006) is investigated, with convective rainfall and dust bursts being observed over the Sahel at the beginning and end of the episode. Three Meso-NH simulations were designed which differed in their dust representation. All the simulations capture the variation in the WAHL intensity well, including the simulation without any dust effects. This shows the primary role of large-scale forcing on the WAHL pulsation. In spite of additional daytime heating and night-time cooling effects over the Sahara, the simulation with dust climatology resembles the simulation without any dust effects. In contrast, the simulation using a prognostic dust scheme enhances alternating northward advection of warm and dry air and southward advection of cold and wet air associated with the propagation of an African easterly wave, leading to a strengthening of the WAHL variabilities. This study highlights two effects of dust on the WAHL over the Sahara: a so-called direct effect associated with dust radiative heating, which increases the WAHL thickness, and a so-called indirect effect that intensifies both the African easterly jet and a related African easterly wave. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave radiation (GERBILS) was an observational field experiment over North Africa during June 2007. The campaign involved 10 flights by the FAAM BAe-146 research aircraft over southwestern parts of the Sahara Desert and coastal stretches of the Atlantic Ocean. Objectives of the GERBILS campaign included characterisation of mineral dust geographic distribution and physical and optical properties, assessment of the impact upon radiation, validation of satellite remote sensing retrievals, and validation of numerical weather prediction model forecasts of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and size distributions. We provide the motivation behind GERBILS and the experimental design and report the progress made in each of the objectives. We show that mineral dust in the region is relatively non-absorbing (mean single scattering albedo at 550 nm of 0.97) owing to the relatively small fraction of iron oxides present (1–3%), and that detailed spectral radiances are most accurately modelled using irregularly shaped particles. Satellite retrievals over bright desert surfaces are challenging owing to the lack of spectral contrast between the dust and the underlying surface. However, new techniques have been developed which are shown to be in relatively good agreement with AERONET estimates of AOD and with each other. This encouraging result enables relatively robust validation of numerical models which treat the production, transport, and deposition of mineral dust. The dust models themselves are able to represent large-scale synoptically driven dust events to a reasonable degree, but some deficiencies remain both in the Sahara and over the Sahelian region, where cold pool outflow from convective cells associated with the intertropical convergence zone can lead to significant dust production. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: We studied the use of IASI data to improve the forecasts of extreme weather events in the Arctic region. For this purpose, the HARMONIE/Norway regional model was used. A set of 366 IASI channels was initially chosen from the ECMWF archived database. Active channels showing the best fit with the analysis system were selected by applying a multi-step monitoring technique. The IASI data were assimilated together with most of the available conventional and operational satellite observations using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. Four experiments with cyclic assimilations and subsequent 48-hour forecasts were performed during the IPY-THORPEX campaign period to evaluate the impact of the IASI data and the campaign observations on the hydrostatic HARMONIE/Norway analyses and forecasts. The assessment of the degrees of freedom for signals on the analysis showed that incorporating the IASI data in the assimilation system improved the contribution of the other observations. The utilization of an energy norm-based approach proved the sensitivity of the forecasts to the IASI channels in cases dominated by dynamic instabilities leading to quickly developing weather systems like, for example, polar lows. Comparison of the HARMONIE/Norway forecasts against independent observations and the ECMWF analyses showed a clear positive impact of the IASI data on geopotential fields in mid-troposphere and in the troposphere in general, respectively. We found small but significant positive impact on the temperature and humidity in the lower troposphere. A case-study showed positive impact of IASI radiances on the analysis and forecasts of a polar low. The impact on the forecasts lasted up to 24 hours when extra in situ campaign data were excluded from the analysis, and up to 36 hours when the campaign data were assimilated together with the IASI radiances. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Extreme mesoscale weather in the Arctic region consists mainly of cases with shallow fronts that often form in the vicinity of the ice-edge and intense storms called polar lows. This article describes high-resolution numerical simulations of a severe weather event that occurred on 1 March 2008 over the Barents Sea. The event was recorded during the IPY–THORPEX field experiments carried out during February and March 2008. The numerical simulations indicated the formation of a low-pressure system over the Barents Sea on 29 February 2008 due to baroclinic instability. On 1 March, the surface low moved onto the sea-ice around Spitsbergen and decayed later on. The conditions that prevailed before the dissipation of the surface low were favourable for the formation of a polar low. Two experiments were performed to test the possibilities of triggering a polar low through certain modifications to the surface conditions. In the first experiment, the sea-ice around Spitsbergen was removed. No polar low developed in this case, since the static stability was too high. In the second experiment, an attempt to reduce the static stability was made by raising the sea-surface temperature by 5 K. The surface low persisted over the Barents Sea area due to the increased surface heating and led to a strong outbreak of Arctic air over the Norwegian Sea on 2 March. The Arctic-air outbreak formed a sharp baroclinic zone which was absent in the control simulation. A secondary mesoscale low was triggered near the baroclinic zone over the Norwegian Sea, which grew into an intense polar low with surface winds reaching hurricane force. Formation of the polar low was due to baroclinic instability, whereas convective instability was important during the growth of the low. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Brief communication "Snow profile associated measurements (SPAM) – a new instrument for quick snow profile measurements" The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1737-1748, 2011 Author(s): P. Lahtinen A new instrument concept (SPAM) for snow profile associated measurements is presented. The potential of the concept is demonstrated by presenting preliminary results obtained with the prototype instrument. With this concept it is possible to retrieve rapid snow profiles of e.g. light extinction, reflectance, temperature and snow layer structure with high vertical resolution. As a side-product, also snow depth is retrieved.

Description: Modeling the impact of wintertime rain events on the thermal regime of permafrost The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1697-1736, 2011 Author(s): S. Westermann, J. Boike, M. Langer, T. V. Schuler, and B. Etzelmüller In this study, we present field measurements and numerical process modeling from Western Svalbard showing that the ground surface temperature below the snow is impacted by strong wintertime rain events. During such events, rain water percolates to the bottom of the snow pack, where it freezes and releases latent heat. In the winter season 2005/2006, on the order of 20 to 50 % of the wintertime precipitation fell as rain, thus confining the surface temperature to close to 0 °C for several weeks. The measured average ground surface temperature during the snow-covered period is −0.6 °C, despite of a snow surface temperature of on average −8.5 °C. For the considered period, the temperature threshold below which permafrost is sustainable on long timescales is exceeded. We present a simplified model of rain water infiltration in the snow coupled to a transient permafrost model. While small amounts of rain have only minor impact on the ground surface temperature, strong rain events have a long-lasting impact. We show that consecutively applying the conditions encountered in the winter season 2005/2006 results in the formation of an unfrozen zone in the soil after three to five years, depending on the prescribed soil properties. If water infiltration in the snow is disabled in the model, more time is required for the permafrost to reach a similar state of degradation.

Description: Ground-based radar observations at three distinct geographical locations in West Africa along a common latitudinal band (Niamey, Niger (continental), Kawsara, Senegal (coastal), and Praia, Republic of Cape Verde (maritime)) are analyzed to determine convective system characteristics in each domain during a 29-day period in 2006. Ancillary datasets provided by the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) and NASA-AMMA (NAMMA) field campaigns are also used to place the radar observations in context. Results show that the total precipitation is dominated by propagating mesoscale convective systems. Convective characteristics vary according to environmental properties, such as vertical shear, CAPE, and the degree of synoptic forcing. Data are bifurcated based on the presence or absence of African easterly waves. In general, African easterly waves appear to enhance mesoscale convective system strength characteristics (e.g. total precipitation and vertical reflectivity profiles) at the inland and maritime sites. The wave regime also resulted in an increased population of the largest observed mesoscale convective systems observed near the coast, which led to an increase in stratiform precipitation. Despite this increase, differentiation of convective strength characteristics was less obvious between wave and no-wave regimes at the coast. Owing to the propagating nature of these advecting mesoscale convective systems, interaction with the regional thermodynamic and dynamic environment appears to result in more variability than enhancements due to the wave regime, independent of location. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A wavelet formulation on the sphere is being considered for modelling heterogeneous background-error correlations for the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This approach is compared with the operational spectral formulation, which is horizontally homogeneous to a large extent. Diagnostic studies have been conducted to examine geographical variations of three-dimensional correlations over the whole globe. Results indicate that the contrast between relatively broad horizontal correlations in the Tropics and sharp ones in midlatitudes is well represented by the wavelet formulation. Heterogeneities in vertical correlations are also better captured in the wavelet approach than in the spectral one, with visible changes as functions of e.g. latitude and land/sea contrasts. In addition, wavelet-based correlation estimates are shown to be partly sensitive to the choice of the calibration period. The impact of the wavelet formulation on the forecast quality has been investigated during a three-week calibration period, and also during the following three weeks. While the impact of the wavelet formulation is globally positive during the two periods, it tends to be more spectacular during the calibration time interval, as expected. These results indicate that an on-line calibration should be considered in the future, in order to exploit fully the ability of wavelets to extract correlation heterogeneities from ensemble data. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: FY-3A, launched in May 2008, is the first in a series of seven polar-orbiting meteorological satellites due to be launched by China's Meteorological Administration in the period leading up to 2020. The FY-3A payload includes four instruments of particular interest for numerical weather prediction (NWP): microwave temperature and humidity sounders, a microwave imager, and an infrared sounder. The main features of these instruments are described. Data from the calibration–validation phase of the FY-3A mission were introduced into the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System in order to assess the data quality and the influence of the data on analyses and forecasts. An analysis of first-guess departures has shown the data to be of good quality overall. Several issues with instrument performance and ground segment processing have been identified. The most serious of these are: uncertainties in the temperature sounder passbands on-orbit, orbital biases in the infrared instrument affecting the highest peaking channels, and scan biases in the microwave humidity sounder. Variational bias correction partially corrects for these errors, but more work remains to be done to correct the problems before the full benefit of the data is realised. In observing system experiments, the FY-3A instruments, both individually and as a package, show considerable skill when added to observation depleted control experiments. When added to a full observing system, the impacts are neutral to slightly positive, as expected. These initial results are encouraging and build confidence that the following series of FY-3 instruments will be widely used in NWP data assimilation systems. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Snow particle size distributions (particle size 〉400 µm) in the western Arctic measured with in situ aircraft instrumentation during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic/First ISCCP Regional Experiment - Arctic Clouds Experiment and Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment are analysed. Three cases of shallow, precipitating mixed-phase boundary-layer clouds and two cases of deep, precipitating frontal clouds are examined. Overall, the shallow cases had much lower values of particle concentration and ice water content than the deep cases, indicating large differences in ice initiation and growth between these regimes. Within a given case for both the shallow and deep frontal systems, and for the dataset as a whole, crystal concentration had little correlation with temperature (height), despite an active aggregation process that was indicated by large aggregates (〉5 mm) observed in four out of the five cases. Exponential size distributions are fitted to the observations, allowing a direct comparison with the snow particle size distributions that are represented with exponential functions in many bulk microphysics schemes used in weather and climate models. Values of the fitted intercept parameter N 0 are generally 2–10 times smaller for the shallow compared to the deep frontal cases as a result of differences in crystal concentration between these regimes. Values of N 0 ∼ 10 7 m −4 specified for snow in many bulk microphysics schemes are broadly consistent with fitted N 0 for the deep cases but larger than values for the shallow cases. The deep frontal cases also exhibit a relationship between N 0 and temperature consistent with previous observations of midlatitude frontal systems. However, there are no consistent differences in N 0 between the shallow and deep cases when partitioned by ice water content. Fitted values of slope parameter λ for the shallow and deep cases are generally consistent with previous studies of lower-latitude cloud systems. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A bulk flux algorithm predicts the turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible and latent heat from mean measured or modelled meteorological variables. The bulk flux algorithm resulting from data collected over winter sea ice during SHEBA, the experiment to study the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean, failed, however, in its first trial to predict the turbulent momentum flux over sea ice in the Antarctic. This result suggests that the main parameter for predicting the momentum flux, the aerodynamics roughness length z 0 , does not respond just to the friction velocity, as in the SHEBA algorithm, but is closely related to the physical roughness of snow-covered sea ice and may need to be site-specific. I investigate this idea with simultaneous measurements of z 0 and the physical roughness of the surface, ξ , at Ice Station Weddell. The metric ξ derives from surveys of surface elevation and is related to but always less than the standard deviation in surface elevation. On combining the z 0 – ξ pairs from Ice Station Weddell with similar data obtained over Arctic sea ice, I show that the Arctic and Antarctic z 0 – ξ data lie along a continuum such that measuring ξ could provide a means for estimating a site-specific z 0 for any global sea ice surface. Backscatter data from satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar might provide a remotely sensed estimate of ξ . Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: During 3–4 March 2008, the Norwegian IPY-THORPEX field campaign successfully carried out three flight missions that observed the full life cycle of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea. Here the three-dimensional structure of the polar low has been investigated using dropsonde data from the three flights. The polar low developed in a cold air outbreak, with temperature differences between the sea surface and 500 hPa of about 45–50°C. Cross-sections show that the horizontal gradients of potential temperature weakened as the polar low matured, suggesting that baroclinic energy conversion took place. Dropsonde data of potential temperature and relative humidity show evidence of a tropopause fold, which is possibly a manifestation of upper-level forcing. This is corroborated by potential vorticity inversion, which shows a dominant role of upper-level forcing throughout the polar low's lifetime. During the cyclogenesis stage the polar low circulation was confined below 700 hPa, with a northerly low-level jet of 26 m s −1 . In the mature stage, its circulation reached up to the tropopause (∼450 hPa), with maximum wind speed between 700 and 900 hPa of about 26–28 m s −1 . At this stage the polar low warm core was about 3 K warmer than surrounding air masses. The deep moist towers at the eye-like structure of the polar low extended up to the tropopause with relative humidity values above 70%, indicating a possibly important role for condensational heating in the development. Estimates of surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat using temperature and moisture from the dropsonde data show latent heat fluxes west of the polar low increasing from 175 to 300 W m −2 as the low matured, while the sensible heat fluxes rose from 200 to 280 W m −2 , suggesting a gradually increasing contribution of surface fluxes to the energetics of the polar low with time. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: We present simulations of London's meteorology using the Met Office Unified Model with a new, sophisticated surface energy-balance scheme to represent the urban surfaces, called MORUSES. Simulations are performed with the urban surfaces represented and with the urban surfaces replaced with grass in order to calculate the urban increment on the local meteorology. The local urban effects were moderated to some extent by the passage of an onshore flow that propagated up the Thames estuary and across the city, cooling London slightly in the afternoon. Validations of screen-level temperature show encouraging agreement to within 1–2 K, when the urban increment is up to 5 K. The model results are then used to examine factors shaping the spatial and temporal structure of London's atmospheric boundary layer. The simulations reconcile the differences in the temporal evolution of the urban heat island (UHI) shown in various studies and demonstrate that the variation of UHI with time depends strongly on the urban fetch. The UHI at a location downwind of the city centre shows a decrease in UHI during the night, while the UHI at the city centre stays constant. Finally, the UHI at a location upwind of the city centre increases continuously. The magnitude of the UHI by the time of the evening transition increases with urban fetch. The urban increments are largest at night, when the boundary layer is shallow. The boundary layer experiences continued warming after sunset, as the heat from the urban fabric is released, and a weakly convective boundary layer develops across the city. The urban land-use fraction is the dominant control on the spatial structure in the sensible heat flux and the resulting urban increment, although even the weak advection present in this case study is sufficient to advect the peak temperature increments downwind of the most built-up areas. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, the Met Office

Description: Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are key flow structures associated with extratropical cyclones. They transport moist air from the cyclone's warm sector poleward and upward close to the tropopause level, leading to the formation of elongated cloud bands, intense latent heating and surface precipitation. In this study a comprehensive dataset of airborne lidar observations of moisture and wind from different campaigns has been investigated with a trajectory-based approach to identify ‘lucky encounters’ with WCBs. On 19 July 2007, an upstream flight over the Iberian Peninsula during the European THORPEX Regional Campaign (ETReC 2007) in Central Europe intersected two WCBs: one in the upper tropospheric outflow region about 3 days after starting the ascent, and the other one in the boundary layer inflow region over Spain just prior to the strong ascent. Comparison of the lidar humidity measurements with analysis fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reveals significant positive deviations, equivalent to an overestimation of the modelled humidity, in this low-tropospheric WCB inflow region (of about 1 g kg −1 (14%) on average and with peak deviations up to 7 g kg −1 ). It is noteworthy that this substantial bias occurs in a potentially dynamically highly relevant air mass that will be subsequently lifted within a WCB to the upper troposphere. A Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic reveals that these large moisture deviations occur within air masses that, according to the ECMWF analyses, are coherently transported from the western Mediterranean towards Spain and experience intense moisture uptake over the Ebro valley. It is suggested that inaccuracies in surface evapotranspiration, horizontal moisture advection, and turbulent vertical transport of moisture in the atmospheric boundary layer potentially contribute to the erroneous low-tropospheric humidity in the inflow region of this particular summertime WCB over Spain in the ECMWF analyses. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: The role of the representation of deep convection on key elements of the West African summer monsoon climate is addressed using the Regional Climate Model RegCM3. Two simulations in which a scheme of deep convection is activated and then turned off are performed and intercompared. Results show that the presence of deep convective heating along the intertropical convergence zone sustains increased lower-level baroclinicity favoring intensification of the jet core and leading to a more realistic African easterly jet. In addition, although the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) is lower when the convection scheme is switched off, African easterly waves (AEWs) are still generated and propagate westwards but they dissipate around the west coast. Substantial differences between the two simulations occur mainly at the 6- to 9-day time-scale over land, when much weaker activity is simulated in the absence of convection. This indicates that orographic friction and low-level large-scale moisture convergence, generating high values of latent heat and IPV, may play the dominant role in the genesis and growth of AEWs and that deep convection acts to strengthen the overall wave activity and to favor their west coast development. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: A unique airborne differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for water vapour observations was developed at the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR). Installed on board the DLR Falcon 20 aircraft, the system measured a dataset of about 3900 water vapour profiles during the T-PARC field campaign. These high-resolution humidity observations were assimilated into the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model using a version of the operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The assimilation system is able to extract the information for DIAL observations, and verification with independent dropsonde observations shows a reduction in the analysis error when DIAL water vapour observations are assimilated. The forecast influence of the humidity observations is found to be small in most cases, but the observations are able to affect the forecast considerably under certain conditions. Systematic errors are investigated by comparison between humidity model fields, DIAL and dropsonde observations. Overall, DIAL observations are roughly 7–10% drier than model fields throughout the troposphere. Comparison with dropsonde observations suggests that the DIAL observations are too dry in the lower troposphere but not above it. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In this paper we provide an overview of various satellite products over the Sahara Desert that were available during the GERBILS field campaign. Our results indicate that all mid-visible satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products match well with AERONET retrievals. For low AOD (AOD 〈 1), the satellite AODs compare well with aircraft AOD values but they tend to underestimate at high AOD values. We then assessed the satellite products in 0.5 × 0.5 degree grids for the entire study region (10–30°N and 20°W–10°E). If we use a multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) as a benchmark for AOD retrievals over bright targets, the estimated AOD derived from the ozone-monitoring instrument aerosol index–MISR relationship performs best when compared with MISR for the entire study region. Although differences exist among satellite products, the advancement in satellite retrieval techniques now provide AOD retrievals over bright targets such as deserts, which are useful for numerical modeling simulation comparisons and other studies. Furthermore, the in situ information from aircraft and the ground continue to provide valuable information for validating satellite products and for assessing their strengths and weaknesses. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown Copyright, theMet Office

Description: The impact of the high-frequency (HF, 〈90 days) variability on low-frequency (LF) interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by conducting a series of oceanic general circulation model experiments. Two nonlinear rectification mechanisms are examined. The first is the internal oceanic nonlinear dynamics and the second is the nonlinear rectification of the LF surface wind stress by the HF wind. Numerical simulations show that the latter is dominant in modulating the LF SST variability. The HF wind increases both the amplitude and skewness of the LF wind stress anomaly. As a result, it increases both the amplitude and skewness of the SST anomaly (SSTA) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. For strong El Niño events in 1982/83 and 1997/98, such a nonlinear rectification effect may result in a SSTA increase of 1°C. A mixed-layer heat budget analysis reveals that whereas meridional and vertical advections primarily contribute to the strengthening of the warm and cold episodes, the nonlinear zonal advection is responsible for the increase of the SSTA skewness. Including the nonlinear rectification of the HF wind on both the surface wind stress and heat flux anomalies leads to a positively (negatively) skewed SSTA in the eastern (central) Pacific. Thus the combined dynamic and thermodynamic effect reshapes the ENSO zonal structure in such a way that it makes the maximum SSTA confined further to the eastern equatorial Pacific. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: In situ , satellite and model analyses data in April–July 2006 are used to investigate the links between sea surface temperature (SST) and the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) in the Gulf of Guinea. The study region between 10°W and 6°E is divided into three areas with different characteristics: the North Area (4.5°N to 1°N) with the wettest atmosphere and the warmest SST, the Upwelling Area (1°N to 4°S) with the strongest SST decrease, and the South Area (4°S to 8°S) with a drier atmosphere and a more slowly decreasing SST than in the Upwelling Area. The key zone of the air-sea interactions in this region seems to be the SST front between North and Upwelling Areas. On the one hand, the study of the MABL on either side of the front shows a well-mixed layer between the surface and about 500 m high, sensitive to surface variations, which gets shallower (deeper) when the SST decreases (increases). The MABL height (about 1500 m) follows the same variations but is not exactly collocated with the SST variations. On the other hand, the observation of the MABL across the SST front shows a strengthening of southeasterlies in the South Area coinciding with a strong SST decrease in the Upwelling Area. In the latter, the wind weakens above the colder SST. Besides, in the North Area, the wind strengthens above the warmer SST. However, the wind acceleration spans from the equator to 2°N in April and as far as 4°N in June. A convergence zone is observed in the vicinity of 2°N in April, suggesting a convection activity there, favoured by the SST front. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This article presents and assesses an algorithm that constructs 3D distributions of cloud from passive satellite imagery and collocated 2D nadir profiles of cloud properties inferred synergistically from lidar, cloud radar and imager data. It effectively widens the active–passive retrieved cross-section (RXS) of cloud properties, thereby enabling computation of radiative fluxes and radiances that can be compared with measured values in an attempt to perform radiative closure experiments that aim to assess the RXS. For this introductory study, A-train data were used to verify the scene-construction algorithm and only 1D radiative transfer calculations were performed. The construction algorithm fills off-RXS recipient pixels by computing sums of squared differences (a cost function F ) between their spectral radiances and those of potential donor pixels/columns on the RXS. Of the RXS pixels with F lower than a certain value, the one with the smallest Euclidean distance to the recipient pixel is designated as the donor, and its retrieved cloud properties and other attributes such as 1D radiative heating rates are consigned to the recipient. It is shown that both the RXS itself and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery can be reconstructed extremely well using just visible and thermal infrared channels. Suitable donors usually lie within 10 km of the recipient. RXSs and their associated radiative heating profiles are reconstructed best for extensive planar clouds and less reliably for broken convective clouds. Domain-average 1D broadband radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for (21 km) 2 domains constructed from MODIS, CloudSat and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data agree well with coincidental values derived from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiances: differences between modelled and measured reflected shortwave fluxes are within ±10 W m −2 for ∼35% of the several hundred domains constructed for eight orbits. Correspondingly, for outgoing longwave radiation ∼65% are within ±10 W m −2 . Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown in the right of Canada

Description: Investigating changes in basal conditions of Variegated Glacier prior and during its 1982–1983 surge The Cryosphere Discussions, 5, 1461-1494, 2011 Author(s): M. Jay-Allemand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, O. Gagliardini, and M. Nodet The Variegated Glacier (Alaska) is known to surge periodically after a sufficient amount of cumulative mass balance is reached, but this observation is difficult to link with changes in the basal conditions. Here, using a 10-year dataset, consisting in surface topography and surface velocity observations along a flow line for 25 dates, we have reconstructed the evolution of the basal conditions prior and during the 1982–1983 surge. The model solves the full-Stokes problem along the central flow line using the finite element method. For the 25 dates of the dataset, the basal friction parameter distribution is inferred using the inverse method proposed by Arthern and Gudmundson (2010). This method is here slightly modified by incorporating a regularisation term in the cost function to avoid short wave length changes in the friction parameter. Our results indicate that dramatic changes in the basal conditions occurred between 1973 to 1983. Prior to the surge, periodical changes can be observed between winter and summer, with a regular increase of the sliding from 1973 to 1982. During the surge, the basal friction decreased dramatically and an area of very low friction moved from the upper part of the glacier to its terminus. Using a more complex friction law, these changes in basal sliding are then interpreted in terms of basal water pressure. It confirms that dramatic changes took place in the subglacial drainage system of Variegated Glacier, moving from a relatively efficient drainage system prior to the surge to an inefficient one during the surge. By reconstructing the water pressure evolution at the base of the glacier it is possible to infer realistic scenarios for the hydrological history leading to the occurrence of a surge.

Description: In geophysical data assimilation, the control space is by definition the set of parameters which are estimated through the assimilation of observations. It has recently been proposed to design the discretizations of control space in order to assimilate observations optimally. The present paper describes the embedding of that formalism in a consistent Bayesian framework. General background errors are now accounted for. Scale-dependent errors, such as aggregation errors (that lead to representativeness errors) are consistently introduced. The optimal adaptive discretizations of control space minimize a criterion on a dictionary of grids. New criteria are proposed: degrees of freedom for the signal (DFS) built on the averaging kernel operator, and an observation-dependent criterion. These concepts and results are applied to atmospheric transport of pollutants. The algorithms are tested on the European tracer experiment (ETEX), and on a prototype of CO 2 flux inversion over Europe using a simplified CarboEurope-IP network. New types of adaptive discretization of control space are tested such as quaternary trees or factorised trees. Quaternary trees are proven to be both economical, in terms of storage and CPU time, and efficient on the test cases. This sets the path for the application of this methodology to high-dimensional and noisy geophysical systems. Part II of this article will develop asymptotic solutions for the design of control space representations that are obtained analytically and are contenders to exact numerical optimizations. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Spatial and temporal characteristics of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) on the east side of the Western Ghat mountain range over India's west coast and processes leading to the formation of the jet are discussed. The boundary-layer jet has a regional scale extent, as revealed by high-resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model simulations, and contributes to the formation of ‘atmospheric streams’ of water vapor over the selected land regions. Simulations indicate that the formation of LLJ is mainly attributed to the baroclinicity of the valley atmosphere due to the gently rolling terrain, which is assisted by the persistence of an unstable residual layer above the developing stable boundary layer in the valley and cooling over the slopes. Prior to the formation of LLJ, the boundary layer is dominated by deep roll circulations. The LLJ followed a gust front zone associated with a mountain wave. The low-level flow below the jet is decoupled from the upper-level flow as a result of strong vorticity below the jet and suppression of turbulence at the jet core. A conceptual model for the boundary layer interactions, dynamics of the mountain wave, LLJ, etc. are proposed for Western Ghat region. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: This article examines the first-guess (FG) departures of microwave imager radiances assimilated in all-sky conditions (i.e. clear, cloudy and precipitating). Agreement between FG and observations is good in clear skies, with error standard deviations around 2 K, but in heavy cloud or precipitation errors increase to 20 K. The forecast model is not good at predicting cloud and precipitation with exactly the right intensity or location. This leads to apparently non-Gaussian behaviour, both heteroscedasticity, i.e. an increase in error with cloud amount, and boundedness, i.e. the size of errors is close to the geophysical range of the observations, which runs from clear to fully cloudy. However, the dependence of FG departure standard deviations on the mean cloud amount is predictable. Using this dependence to normalise the FG departures gives an error distribution that is close to Gaussian. Thus if errors are treated correctly, all-sky observations can be assimilated successfully under the assumption of Gaussianity on which assimilation systems are based. This ‘symmetric’ error model can be used to provide a robust threshold quality-control check and to determine the size of observation errors for all-sky assimilation. In practice, however, this ‘observation’ error is being used to account for the model's difficulty in forecasting cloud, which really comes from errors in the background and in the forecast model. Hence in future it will be necessary to improve the representation of background and model error. Separately, symmetric cloud amount is recommended as a predictor for bias correction schemes, avoiding the sampling problems associated with ‘asymmetric’ predictors like the FG cloud amount. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society