ALBERT

Description: As an important part of the smart grid, a wide-area measurement system (WAMS) provides the key technical support for power system monitoring, protection and control. But 20 uncertainties in system parameters and signal transmission time delay could worsen the damping effect and deteriorate the system stability. In the presented study, the subspace system identification technique (SIT) is used to firstly derive a low-order linear model of a power system from the measurements. Then, a novel adaptive wide-area damping control scheme for online tuning of the wide-area damping controller (WADC) parameters using the residue method is proposed. In order to eliminate the effects of the time delay to the signal transmission, a simple and practical time delay compensation algorithm is proposed to compensate the time delay in each wide-area control signal. Detailed examples, inspired by the IEEE test system under various disturbance scenarios, have been used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive wide-area damping control scheme.

Description: In this paper, a power supply system for hybrid renewable energy conversion is proposed, which can process PV (photovoltaic) power and wind-turbine energy simultaneously for step-down voltage and high current applications. It is a dual-input converter and mainly contains a PV energy source, a wind turbine energy source, a zero-voltage-switching (ZVS) forward converter, and a current-doubler rectifier. The proposed power supply system has the following advantages: (1) PV-arrays and wind-energy sources can alternatively deliver power to the load during climate or season alteration; (2) maximum power point tracking (MPPT) can be accomplished for both different kinds of renewable-energy sources; (3) ZVS and synchronous rectification techniques for the active switches of the forward converter are embedded so as to reduce switching and conducting losses; and (4) electricity isolation is naturally obtained. To achieve an optimally dynamic response and to increase control flexibility, a digital signal processor (DSP) is investigated and presented to implement MPPT algorithm and power regulating scheme. Finally, a 240 W prototype power supply system with ZVS and current-doubler features to deal with PV power and wind energy is built and implemented. Experimental results are presented to verify the performance and the feasibility of the proposed power supply system.

Description: High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF) neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS) installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

Description: Biodiesel produced from vegetable oils, animal fats and algae oil is a renewable, environmentally friendly and clean alternative fuel that reduces pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions in marine applications. This study investigates the influence of biodiesel blend on the characteristics of residual and distillate marine fuels. Adequate correlation equations are applied to calculate the fuel properties of the blended marine fuels with biodiesel. Residual marine fuel RMA has inferior fuel characteristics compared with distillate marine fuel DMA and biodiesel. The flash point of marine fuel RMA could be increased by 20% if blended with 20 vol% biodiesel. The sulfur content of residual marine fuel could meet the requirement of the 2008 MARPOL Annex VI Amendment by blending it with 23.0 vol% biodiesel. In addition, the kinematic viscosity of residual marine fuel could be reduced by 12.9% and the carbon residue by 23.6% if 20 vol% and 25 vol% biodiesel are used, respectively. Residual marine fuel blended with 20 vol% biodiesel decreases its lower heating value by 1.9%. Moreover, the fuel properties of residual marine fuel are found to improve more significantly with biodiesel blending than those of distillate marine fuel.

Description: The battery state of charge (SoC), whose estimation is one of the basic functions of battery management system (BMS), is a vital input parameter in the energy management and power distribution control of electric vehicles (EVs). In this paper, two methods based on an extended Kalman filter (EKF) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF), respectively, are proposed to estimate the SoC of a lithium-ion battery used in EVs. The lithium-ion battery is modeled with the Thevenin model and the model parameters are identified based on experimental data and validated with the Beijing Driving Cycle. Then space equations used for SoC estimation are established. The SoC estimation results with EKF and UKF are compared in aspects of accuracy and convergence. It is concluded that the two algorithms both perform well, while the UKF algorithm is much better with a faster convergence ability and a higher accuracy.

Description: Free convection is the most often used method in order to reduce solar load gains on a building with double glazed façades (DGFs). However, depending on the climate factors, the thermal performance of a DGF may not be satisfactory and extra energy costs are required to obtain suitable comfort conditions inside the building. Forced ventilation systems are a feasible alternative to improve the thermal performance of a DGF in Mediterranean climates where large solar gains are a permanent condition throughout the year. In this paper the feasibility of using diverse forced ventilation methods in DGF is evaluated. In addition, an economical comparison between different mechanical ventilation systems was performed in order to demonstrate the viability of DGF forced ventilation. Moreover, an environmental study was carried out to prove the positive energetic balance on cooling loads between free and forced convection in DGF for Mediterranean climates. For this investigation, a CFD model was used to simulate the thermal conditions in a DGF for the different ventilation systems. Results obtained for heat flux, temperature and reductions in solar load gains were analyzed and applied for the economic and environmental research.

Description: This paper presents a hydrogen powered hybrid solid oxide fuel cell-steam turbine (SOFC-ST) system and studies its optimal operating conditions. This type of installation can be very appropriate to complement the intermittent generation of renewable energies, such as wind generation. A dynamic model of an alternative hybrid SOFC-ST configuration that is especially suited to work with hydrogen is developed. The proposed system recuperates the waste heat of the high temperature fuel cell, to feed a bottoming cycle (BC) based on a steam turbine (ST). In order to optimize the behavior and performance of the system, a two-level control structure is proposed. Two controllers have been implemented for the stack temperature and fuel utilization factor. An upper supervisor generates optimal set-points in order to reach a maximal hydrogen efficiency. The simulation results obtained show that the proposed system allows one to reach high efficiencies at rated power levels.

Description: On 16 January 2013, all Boeing 787 Dreamliners were indefinitely grounded due to lithium-ion battery failures that had occurred in two planes. Subsequent investigations into the battery failures released through the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) factual report, the March 15th Boeing press conference in Japan, and the NTSB hearings in Washington D.C., never identified the root causes of the failures—a major concern for ensuring safety and meeting reliability expectations. This paper discusses the challenges to lithium-ion battery qualification, reliability assessment, and safety in light of the Boeing 787 battery failures. New assessment methods and control techniques that can improve battery reliability and safety in avionic systems are then presented.

Description: Measurement of the active, reactive, and apparent power is one of the most fundamental tasks of smart meters in energy systems. Recently, a number of studies have employed the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for power measurement in smart meters. The most common way to implement DWT is the pyramid algorithm; however, this is not feasible for practical DWT computation because it requires either a log N cascaded filter or O (N) word size memory storage for an input signal of the N-point. Both solutions are too expensive for practical applications of smart meters. It is proposed that the recursive pyramid algorithm is more suitable for smart meter implementation because it requires only word size storage of L × Log (N-L), where L is the length of filter. We also investigated the effect of varying different system parameters, such as the sampling rate, dc offset, phase offset, linearity error in current and voltage sensors, analog to digital converter resolution, and number of harmonics in a non-sinusoidal system, on the reactive energy measurement using DWT. The error analysis is depicted in the form of the absolute difference between the measured and the true value of the reactive energy.

Description: Biodiesel has gained a significant amount of attention over the past decade as an environmentally friendly fuel that is capable of being utilized by a conventional diesel engine. However, the biodiesel production process generates glycerol-containing waste streams which have become a disposal issue for biodiesel plants and generated a surplus of glycerol. A value-added opportunity is needed in order to compensate for disposal-associated costs. Microbial conversions from glycerol to valuable chemicals performed by various bacteria, yeast, fungi, and microalgae are discussed in this review paper, as well as the possibility of extending these conversions to microbial electrochemical technologies.

Description: Double rotor machine, an electronic continuously variable transmission, has great potential in application of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), wind power and marine propulsion. In this paper, an axial magnetic-field-modulated brushless double rotor machine (MFM-BDRM), which can realize the speed decoupling between the shaft of the modulating ring rotor and that of the permanent magnet rotor is proposed. Without brushes and slip rings, the axial MFM-BDRM offers significant advantages such as excellent reliability and high efficiency. Since the number of pole pairs of the stator is not equal to that of the permanent magnet rotor, which differs from the traditional permanent magnet synchronous machine, the operating principle of the MFM-BDRM is deduced. The relations of corresponding speed and toque transmission are analytically discussed. The cogging toque characteristics, especially the order of the cogging torque are mathematically formulated. Matching principle of the number of pole pairs of the stator, that of the permanent magnet rotor and the number of ferromagnetic pole pieces is inferred since it affects MFM-BDRM’s performance greatly, especially in the respect of the cogging torque and electromagnetic torque ripple. The above analyses are assessed with the three-dimensional (3D) finite-element method (FEM).

Description: Magnetite, Fe3O4, is a promising anode material for lithium ion batteries due to its high theoretical capacity (924 mA h g−1), high density, low cost and low toxicity. However, its application as high capacity anodes is still hampered by poor cycling performance. To stabilize the cycling performance of Fe3O4 nanoparticles, composites comprising Fe3O4 nanoparticles and graphene sheets (GS) were fabricated. The Fe3O4/GS composite disks of mm dimensions were prepared by electrostatic self-assembly between negatively charged graphene oxide (GO) sheets and positively charged Fe3O4-APTMS [Fe3O4 grafted with (3-aminopropyl)trimethoxysilane (APTMS)] in an acidic solution (pH = 2) followed by in situ chemical reduction. Thus prepared Fe3O4/GS composite showed an excellent rate capability as well as much enhanced cycling stability compared with Fe3O4 electrode. The superior electrochemical responses of Fe3O4/GS composite disks assure the advantages of: (1) electrostatic self-assembly between high storage-capacity materials with GO; and (2) incorporation of GS in the Fe3O4/GS composite for high capacity lithium-ion battery application.

Description: A low carbon, high efficiency and high quality power supply scheme for Distributed Generation (DG) in a micro-grid is presented. A three-phase, four-leg DG grid-interfacing converter based on the improved structure of a Unified Power Quality Conditioner (UPQC, including a series converter and a parallel converter) is adopted, and improved indirect and direct control strategies are proposed. It can be observed that these strategies effectively compensate for voltage sags, voltage swells and voltage distortion, as well as voltage power quality problems resulting from the nonlinear and unbalanced loads in a micro-grid. While solving the coupling interference from series–parallel, the grid-interfacing converter can achieve proper load power sharing in a micro-grid. In particular, an improved minimum-energy compensation method is proposed that can overcome the conventional compensation algorithm defects, ensure the load voltage’s phase angle stability, improve the voltage compensating ability and range, reduce the capacity and cost of converters, and reduce the shock of micro-grid switching between grid-connected mode and islanded mode. Moreover, the advantages/disadvantages and application situation of the two improved control strategies are analyzed. Finally, the performance of the proposed control strategies has been verified through a MATLAB/Simulink simulation under various operating conditions.

Description: Microgrids can be considered as controllable units from the utility point of view because the entities of microgrids such as distributed energy resources and controllable loads can effectively control the amount of power consumption or generation. Therefore, microgrids can make various contracts with utility companies such as demand response program or ancillary services. Another advantage of microgrids is to integrate renewable energy resources to low-voltage distribution networks. Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) can effectively compensate the intermittent output of renewable energy resources. This paper presents intelligent control schemes for BESSs and autonomous energy management schemes of microgrids based on the concept of multi-agent systems. The proposed control scheme consists of two layers of decision-making procedures. In the bottom layer, intelligent agents decide the optimal operation strategies of individual microgrid entities such as BESSs, backup generators and loads. In the upper layer, the central microgrid coordinator (MGCC) coordinates multiple agents so that the overall microgrid can match the load reduction requested by the grid operator. The proposed control scheme is applied to Korea Power Exchange’s Intelligent Demand Response Program.

Description: In this paper, a six-phase fault-tolerant modular permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with a novel 24-slot/14-pole combination is proposed as a high-performance actuator for wheel-driving electric vehicle (EV) applications. Feasible slot/pole combinations of the fractional-slot concentrated winding six-phase PMSM are elicited and analyzed for scheme selection. The novel 24-slot/14-pole combination is derived from the analysis and suppression of the magnetomotive force (MMF) harmonics. By making use of alternate-teeth-wound concentrated winding configuration, two adjacent coils per phase and unequal teeth widths, the phase windings of the proposed machine is magnetically, thermally isolated, which offers potentials of modular design and fault tolerant capability. Taking advantage of the leakage component of winding inductance, 1.0 per unit short-circuit current is achieved endowing the machine with short-circuit proof capability. Optimal design of essential parameters aiming at low eddy current losses, high winding factor and short-circuit-proof ability are presented to pave the way for a high-quality system implementation.

Description: The paper presents the results of an experimental study identifying the response of a 1.5 MW Wave Dragon to extreme conditions typical of the DanWEC test center. The best strategies allowing for a reduction in the extreme mooring tension have also been investigated, showing that this is possible by increasing the surge natural period of the system. The most efficient strategy in doing this is to provide the mooring system with a large horizontal compliance (typically in the order of 100 s), which shall be therefore assumed as design configuration. If this is not possible, it can also be partly achieved by lowering the floating level to a minimum (survivability mode) and by adopting a negative trim position. The adoption of the design configuration would determine in a 100-year storm extreme mooring tensions in the order of 0.9 MN, 65% lower than the worst case experienced in the worst case configuration. At the same time it would lead to a reduction in the extreme motion response, resulting in heave and pitch oscillation heights of 7 m and 19° and surge excursion of 12 m. Future work will numerically identify mooring configurations that could provide the desired compliance.

Description: The accurate state of charge (SOC) estimation of the LiFePO4 battery packs used in robot applications is required for better battery life cycle, performance, reliability, and economic issues. In this paper, a new SOC estimation method, “Modified ECE + EKF”, is proposed. The method is the combination of the modified Equivalent Coulombic Efficiency (ECE) method and the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) method. It is based on the zero-state hysteresis battery model, and adopts the EKF method to correct the initial value used in the Ah counting method. Experimental results show that the proposed technique is superior to the traditional techniques, such as ECE + EKF and ECE + Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), and the accuracy of estimation is within 1%.

Description: This article proposes a simple and reliable damping strategy for wave powerfarm operation of small-scale point-absorber converters. The strategy is based on passiverectification onto a constant DC-link, making it very suitable for grid integration of the farm.A complete model of the system has been developed in Matlab Simulink, and uses real sitedata as input. The optimal constant DC-voltage is evaluated as a function of the significantwave height and energy period of the waves. The total energy output of the WEC is derivedfor one year of experimental site data. The energy output is compared for two cases, onewhere the optimal DC-voltage is determined and held constant at half-hour basis throughoutthe year, and one where a selected value of the DC-voltage is kept constant throughout theyear regardless of sea state.

Description: Carrot pomace, a major agricultural waste from the juice industry, was used as a feedstock for bioethanol production by fermentation with the thermotolerant yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus. Treatment of the carrot pomace with AccelleraseTM 1000 and pectinase at 50 °C for 84 h, resulted in conversion of 42% of its mass to fermentable sugars, mainly glucose, fructose, and sucrose. Simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) at 42 °C was performed on 10% (w/v) carrot pomace; the concentration of ethanol reached 18 g/L and the yield of ethanol from carrot pomace was 0.18 g/g. The highest ethanol concentration of 37 g/L was observed with an additional charge of 10% supplemented to the original 10% of carrot pomace after 12 h; the corresponding yield was 0.185 g/g. Our results clearly demonstrated the potential of combining a SSF process with thermotolerant yeast for the production of bioethanol using carrot pomace as a feedstock.

Description: Wind power causes fluctuations in power systems and introduces issues concerning system stability and power quality because of the lack of controllability of its discontinuous and intermittent resources. This paper presents a coordinated control strategy for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) to match the intermittent wind power generation and compensate for the rapid load changes. An optimal H∞ control method, where the weighting function selection is expressed as an optimization problem, is proposed to mitigate tie-line power fluctuations and the mixed-sensitivity approach is used to deal with the interference suppression. Simulation results show that the proposed method significantly improves the smoothing effect of wind power fluctuations. Compared with the conventional control method, the proposed method has better anti-interference performance in various operating situations.

Description: Sufficiently accurate and low-cost estimation of tidal velocities is of importance when evaluating a potential site for a tidal energy farm. Here we suggest and evaluate a model to calculate the tidal velocity in fjord entrances. The model is compared with tidal velocities from Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements in the tidal channel Skarpsundet in Norway. The calculated velocity value from the model corresponded well with the measured cross-sectional average velocity, but was shown to underestimate the velocity in the centre of the channel. The effect of this was quantified by calculating the kinetic energy of the flow for a 14-day period. A numerical simulation using TELEMAC-2D was performed and validated with ADCP measurements. Velocity data from the simulation was used as input for calculating the kinetic energy at various locations in the channel. It was concluded that the model presented here is not accurate enough for assessing the tidal energy resource. However, the simplicity of the model was considered promising in the use of finding sites where further analyses can be made.

Description: This note presents the Seabreath wave energy converter, basically a multi-chamber floating oscillating water column device, and the lumped model used to size its chambers, the ducts and the turbine. The model is based on extensive testing carried out in the wave flume of the University of Padova using fixed and floating models with a dummy power take off and indirect measurement of the produced power. A map with the available energy in the Mediterranean Sea is also proposed, showing possible ideal application sites. The Seabreath is finally dimensioned for a quarter scale test application in the Adriatic Sea, with a 3 kW turbine, and a capacity factor of 40%.

Description: This paper aims to explore a viable solution for a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind farm to meet the reactive support requirement of the low voltage ride-through (LVRT) grid code with safe grid-connected operation during asymmetrical grid faults. First, the control scheme for the DFIG-based wind energy conversion system (WECS) is designed. Then, the controllability issue is analyzed by means of an optimal method, and the derived controllable regions indicate that the DFIG-based WECS can only remain controllable under mild asymmetrical fault situations. Afterwards, the static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) is introduced as extra equipment to ensure that the DFIG-based wind farm remains controllable under severe asymmetrical fault situations. For this purpose, a voltage compensation control scheme and a corresponding capacity matching method for the STATCOM are proposed. The simulation results verify that, with the proposed coordinated control between the DFIG-based wind farm and the STATCOM, the required positive-sequence reactive current can be supplied to support the power grid. The oscillations on the electromagnetic torque and direct current (DC)-link voltage of the DFIG-based WECS can also be eliminated. Therefore, the control scheme can be helpful to improve the reliability of both the wind farm and the power system during grid faults.

Description: The small medium large system (SMLsystem) is a house built at the Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera (CEU-UCH) for participation in the Solar Decathlon 2013 competition. Several technologies have been integrated to reduce power consumption. One of these is a forecasting system based on artificial neural networks (ANNs), which is able to predict indoor temperature in the near future using captured data by a complex monitoring system as the input. A study of the impact on forecasting performance of different covariate combinations is presented in this paper. Additionally, a comparison of ANNs with the standard statistical forecasting methods is shown. The research in this paper has been focused on forecasting the indoor temperature of a house, as it is directly related to HVAC—heating, ventilation and air conditioning—system consumption. HVAC systems at the SMLsystem house represent 53:89% of the overall power consumption. The energy used to maintain temperature was measured to be 30%–38:9% of the energy needed to lower it. Hence, these forecasting measures allow the house to adapt itself to future temperature conditions by using home automation in an energy-efficient manner. Experimental results show a high forecasting accuracy and therefore, they might be used to efficiently control an HVAC system.

Description: A distribution system was designed and operated by considering unidirectional power flow from a utility source to end-use loads. The large penetrations of distributed generation (DG) into the existing distribution system causes a variety of technical problems, such as frequent tap changing problems of the on-load tap changer (OLTC) transformer, local voltage rise, protection coordination, exceeding short-circuit capacity, and harmonic distortion. In view of voltage regulation, the intermittent fluctuation of the DG output power results in frequent tap changing operations of the OLTC transformer. Thus, many utilities limit the penetration level of DG and are eager to find the reasonable penetration limits of DG in the distribution system. To overcome this technical problem, utilities have developed a new voltage regulation method in the distribution system with a large DG penetration level. In this paper, the impact of DG on the OLTC operations controlled by the line drop compensation (LDC) method is analyzed. In addition, a generalized determination methodology for the DG penetration limits in a distribution substation transformer is proposed. The proposed DG penetration limits could be adopted for a simplified interconnection process in DG interconnection guidelines.

Description: This article presents an analysis of the relationship between building energy usage and building control system operation and performance. A method is presented for estimating the energy saving potential of improvements in building and control system operation, including the relative impact of recommssioning and hardware and software upgrades, based on a subjective assessment of the level of energy efficient design and the energy usage of the building relative to similar buildings as indicated by the Energy Utilization Index for the building. The method introduces a Building Design Index and a Building Operating Index to evaluate building energy performance versus similar buildings, and uses these indices to estimate potential savings and effectiveness of control system improvements.

Description: A life-cycle analysis (LCA) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use was performed to study bio-jet fuel (BJF) production from micro-algae grown in open ponds under Chinese conditions using the Tsinghua University LCA Model (TLCAM). Attention was paid to energy recovery through biogas production and cogeneration of heat and power (CHP) from the residual biomass after oil extraction, including fugitive methane (CH4) emissions during the production of biogas and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions during the use of digestate (solid residue from anaerobic digestion) as agricultural fertilizer. Analyses were performed based on examination of process parameters, mass balance conditions, material requirement, energy consumptions and the realities of energy supply and transport in China (i.e., electricity generation and heat supply primarily based on coal, multiple transport modes). Our LCA result of the BJF pathway showed that, compared with the traditional petrochemical pathway, this new pathway will increase the overall fossil energy use and carbon emission by 39% and 70%, respectively, while decrease petroleum consumption by about 84%, based on the same units of energy service. Moreover, the energy conservation and emission reduction benefit of this new pathway may be accomplished by two sets of approaches: wider adoption of low-carbon process fuels and optimization of algae cultivation and harvest, and oil extraction processes.

Description: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of renewable and especially tidal energy through a political, economic, social, technology, legal and environmental (PESTLE) analysis approach and by reviewing the most up to date relevant literature. The study focuses on the United Kingdom given the favourable environmental resources for such technologies; the number of different design concepts that are currently under development as well as the research funding that has been invested over the last few years. Findings of the analysis identify the risks and multiple stakeholders involved at all stages of the tidal energy projects development from the conceptualization of the design, right through to decommissioning. Many of the stakeholders present benefits to the tidal developers through funding, incentives and knowledge sharing, but at the same time they also present potential risks to the future of projects. This is mostly down to different approaches of the most important aspect of tidal energy that needs to be considered, making it hard for technologists and developers to equally address all requirements. From this research it can be concluded that several of these risks can be mitigated early on providing that particular stakeholders are involved at the correct stage of a project.

Description: Notwithstanding the enforcement of ATEX EU Directives (94/9/EC of 23 March 1994) and safety management system application, explosions in the coal sector still claim lives and cause huge economic losses. Even a consolidated activity like coke dry distillation allows the opportunity of preventing explosion risk connected to fugitive emissions of coke oven gas. Considering accidental releases under semi-confined conditions, a simplified mathematical approach to the maximum allowed gaseous build-up is developed on the basis of the intrinsic hazards of the released compound. The results will help identifying and assessing low rate release consequences therefore to set-up appropriate prevention and control measures. The developed methodology was tested at the real-scale and validated by numerical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations showing the effectiveness of the methodology to evaluate and mitigate the risk connected to confined hazardous releases.

Description: We estimate the contamination risks from the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides released by severe nuclear power plant accidents using the ECHAM/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) atmospheric chemistry-general circulation model at high resolution (50 km). We present an overview of global risks and also a case study of nuclear power plants that are currently under construction, planned and proposed in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region prone to earthquakes. We implemented continuous emissions from each location, making the simplifying assumption that all potential accidents release the same amount of radioactivity. We simulated atmospheric transport and decay, focusing on 137Cs and 131I as proxies for particulate and gaseous radionuclides, respectively. We present risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations, deposition and doses to humans from the inhalation exposure of 131I. The estimated risks exhibit seasonal variability, with the highest surface level concentrations of gaseous radionuclides in the Northern Hemisphere during winter.

Description: Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) extract heat from underground hot dry rock (HDR) by first fracturing the HDR and then circulating a geofluid (typically water) into it and bringing the heated geofluid to a power plant to generate electricity. This study focuses on analysis, examination, and comparison of leading geothermal power plant configurations with a geofluid temperature from 200 to 800 °C, and also analyzes the embodied energy of EGS surface power plants. The power generation analysis is focused on flash type cycles for using subcritical geofluid (〈374 °C) and expansion type cycles for using supercritical geofluid (>374 °C). Key findings of this study include: (i) double-flash plants have 24.3%–29.0% higher geofluid effectiveness than single-flash ones, and 3%–10% lower specific embodied energy; (ii) the expansion type plants have geofluid effectiveness > 750 kJ/kg, significantly higher than flash type plants (geofluid effectiveness 〈 300 kJ/kg) and the specific embodied energy is lower; (iii) to increase the turbine outlet vapor fraction from 0.75 to 0.90, we include superheating by geofluid but that reduces the geofluid effectiveness by 28.3%; (iv) for geofluid temperatures above 650 °C, double-expansion plants have a 2% higher geofluid effectiveness and 5%–8% lower specific embodied energy than single-expansion ones.

Description: This paper proposes a polygeneration system based on a multi-input chemical looping combustion system, which generates methanol and electricity, through the use of natural gas and coal. In this system, the chemical looping hydrogen (CLH) production system and the coal-based methanol production system are integrated. A high quality fuel, natural gas, is used to improve the conversion ratio of coal. The Gibbs energy of the two kinds of fuels is fully used. Benefitting from the chemical looping process, 27% CO2 can be captured without energy penalty. With the same outputs of methanol and electricity, the energy savings ratio of the new system is about 12%. Based on the exergy analyses, it is disclosed that the integration of synthetic utilization of natural gas and coal plays a significant role in reducing the exergy destruction of the new system. The promising results obtained in this paper may lead to a clean coal technology that will utilize natural gas and coal more efficiently and economically.

Description: In order to meet the needs of wind speed prediction in wind farms, we consider the influence of random atmospheric disturbances on wind variations. Considering a simplified fluid convection mode, a Lorenz system can be employed as an atmospheric disturbance model. Here Lorenz disturbance is defined as the European norm of the solutions of the Lorenz equation. Grey generating and accumulated generating models are employed to explore the relationship between wind speed and its related disturbance series. We conclude that a linear or quadric polynomial generating model are optimal through the verification of short-term wind speed prediction in the Sotavento wind farm. The new proposed model not only greatly improves the precision of short-term wind speed prediction, but also has great significance for the maintenance and stability of wind power system operation.

Description: Global land acquisitions, often dubbed ‘land grabbing’ are increasingly becoming drivers of land change. We use the tools of network science to describe the connectivity of the global acquisition system. We find that 126 countries participate in this form of global land trade. Importers are concentrated in the Global North, the emerging economies of Asia, and the Middle East, while exporters are confined to the Global South and Eastern Europe. A small handful of countries account for the majority of land acquisitions (particularly China, the UK, and the US), the cumulative distribution of which is best described by a power law. We also find that countries with many land trading partners play a disproportionately central role in providing connectivity across the network with the shortest trading path between any two countries traversing either China, the US, or the UK over a third of the time. The land acquisition network is characterized by very few trading cliques and therefore ...

Description: H-type finned tube heat exchanger elements maintain a high capacity for heat transfer, possess superior self-cleaning properties and retain the ability to effect flue gas waste heat recovery in boiler renovations. In this paper, the heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics of H-type finned tube banks are studied via an experimental open high-temperature wind tunnel system. The effects of fin width, fin height, fin pitch and air velocity on fin efficiency, convective heat transfer coefficient, integrated heat transfer capacity and pressure drop are examined. The results indicate that as air velocity, fin height and fin width increase, fin efficiency decreases. Convective heat transfer coefficient is proportional to fin pitch, but inversely proportional to fin height and fin width. Integrated heat transfer capacity is related to fin efficiency, convective heat transfer coefficient and finned ratio. Pressure drop increases with the increase of fin height and fin width. Finally, predictive correlations of fin efficiency, Nusselt number and Euler Number are developed based on the experimental data.

Description: This paper is devoted to the analysis and design of high performance permanent-magnet synchronous wind generators (PSWGs). A systematic and sequential methodology for the design of PMSGs is proposed with a high performance wind generator as a design model. Aiming at high induced voltage, low harmonic distortion as well as high generator efficiency, optimal generator parameters such as pole-arc to pole-pitch ratio and stator-slot-shoes dimension, etc. are determined with the proposed technique using Maxwell 2-D, Matlab software and the Taguchi method. The proposed double three-phase and six-phase winding configurations, which consist of six windings in the stator, can provide evenly distributed current for versatile applications regarding the voltage and current demands for practical consideration. Specifically, windings are connected in series to increase the output voltage at low wind speed, and in parallel during high wind speed to generate electricity even when either one winding fails, thereby enhancing the reliability as well. A PMSG is designed and implemented based on the proposed method. When the simulation is performed with a 6 Ω load, the output power for the double three-phase winding and six-phase winding are correspondingly 10.64 and 11.13 kW. In addition, 24 Ω load experiments show that the efficiencies of double three-phase winding and six-phase winding are 96.56% and 98.54%, respectively, verifying the proposed high performance operation.

Description: To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels in order to access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver quality-controlled biomass feedstocks at preprocessing “depots”. Preprocessing depots densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The logistics of biomass commodity supply chains could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logistics within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. The first scenario sited four preprocessing depots evenly across the state of Kansas but within the vicinity of counties having high biomass supply density. The second scenario located five depots based on the shortest depot-to-biorefinery rail distance and biomass availability. The logistics supply chain consists of corn stover harvest, collection and storage, feedstock transport from field to biomass preprocessing depot, preprocessing depot operations, and commodity transport from the biomass preprocessing depot to the biorefinery. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the feedstock logistics gate-to-gate sequence. Within the logistics supply chain GHG emissions are most sensitive to the transport of the densified biomass, which introduces the highest variability (0.2–13 g CO2e/MJ) to life cycle GHG emissions. Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 g CO2e/MJ to 41 g CO2e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system.

Description: Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statisti...

Description: The 2012 drought in Northeast Brazil was the harshest in decades, with potentially significant impacts on the vegetation of the unique semi-arid caatinga biome and on local livelihoods. Here, we use a coupled climate–vegetation model (CCM3-IBIS) to: (1) investigate the role of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in the 2012 drought, and; (2) evaluate the response of the caatinga vegetation to the 2012 climate extreme. Our results indicate that anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean were the primary factor forcing the 2012 drought, with Pacific Ocean SST having a larger role in sustaining typical climatic conditions in the region. The drought strongly influenced net primary production in the caatinga, causing a reduction in annual net ecosystem exchange indicating a reduction in amount of CO 2 released to the atmosphere.

Description: Peatlands in Amazonian Peru are known to store large quantities of carbon, but there is high uncertainty in the spatial extent and total carbon stocks of these ecosystems. Here, we use a multi-sensor (Landsat, ALOS PALSAR and SRTM) remote sensing approach, together with field data including 24 forest census plots and 218 peat thickness measurements, to map the distribution of peatland vegetation types and calculate the combined above- and below-ground carbon stock of peatland ecosystems in the Pastaza-Marañon foreland basin in Peru. We find that peatlands cover 35 600 ± 2133 km 2 and contain 3.14 (0.44–8.15) Pg C. Variation in peat thickness and bulk density are the most important sources of uncertainty in these values. One particular ecosystem type, peatland pole forest, is found to be the most carbon-dense ecosystem yet identified in Amazonia (1391 ± 710 Mg C ha −1 ). The novel approach of combining optical and radar remote sensing with above- and below-groun...

Description:    Natural hazard assessments are always subject to uncertainties due to missing knowledge about the complexity of hazardous processes as well as their natural variability. Decision-makers in the field of natural hazard management need to understand the concept, components, sources, and implications of existing uncertainties in order to reach informed and transparent decisions. Until now, however, only few hazard maps include uncertainty visualizations which would be much needed for an enhanced communication among experts and decision-makers in order to make informed decisions possible. In this paper, an analysis of how uncertainty is currently treated and communicated by Swiss natural hazards experts is presented. The conducted expert survey confirmed that the communication of uncertainty has to be enhanced, possibly with the help of uncertainty visualizations. However, in order to visualize the spatial characteristics of uncertainty, existing uncertainties need to be quantified. This challenge is addressed by the exemplary simulation of a snow avalanche event using a deterministic model and quantified uncertainties with a sensitivity analysis. Suitable visualization methods for the resulting spatial variability of the uncertainties are suggested, and the advantages and disadvantages of their implementation in an interactive cartographic information system are discussed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9864-y Authors Melanie Kunz, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Lorenz Hurni, Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The present work addresses the problem of lack of coordination between policies and actors with joint competence for risk management, i.e., civil protection, spatial planning, and sectoral planning (e.g., forest policy in the case of forest fire risk). Spatial planning in particular is assigned a minor or no role at all though it might perfectly operate as the coordinating policy platform; the reason is that spatially relevant analysis and policy guidance is an omnipresent component of the risk management cycle. However, disconnected risk relevant policies turning a blind eye to spatial planning might cause several adverse repercussions: Breaks in the response-preparedness-prevention-remediation chain (which should function as a continuum), minimal attention to prevention, risk expansion and growth instead of mitigation, lack of synergies between involved actors as well as duplicated or even diverging measures and funding. The authors bear witness to the above suggestions by examining three cases of European (regional and local) risk management systems faced with failures when confronting natural hazards (floods and forest fires). These three systems are embedded in different types of political-administrative structures, namely those of the city of Dortmund (Germany) facing floods, Eastern Attica region (Greece), and Lazio Region (Italy) facing forest fires. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-30 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9843-3 Authors Kalliopi Sapountzaki, Department of Geography, Harokopio University of Athens, Athens, Greece Sylvia Wanczura, Institute of Fire Service and Rescue Technologies, Fire Department of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gabriella Casertano, Regione Lazio, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, Italy Stefan Greiving, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Gavriil Xanthopoulos, National Agricultural Research Foundation, Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems and Forest Products Technology, Athens, Greece Floriana F. Ferrara, T6 Ecosystems srl, Rome, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE). The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9852-2 Authors Jinyoung Kim, Department of Urban Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan Yuji Kuwahara, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Manish Kumar, Tezpur University, Napaam, Assam 784 028, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Earthquake-induced landslides can cause a large number of casualties and great economic loss. Presently, research methods for studying landslides are largely based on a framework of solid mechanics. In this work, visualization software, known as Visual SPH, is developed in Visual Basic 6.0, and can be used to analyze the fluidized movement of landslides based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH). First, the accuracy of the software is verified through simulating a benchmark problem of a dam-break. Then, fluidized movement analysis of the Tangjiashan landslide is carried out using this software. The simulation derives plots of displacement versus time, reproduces the entire flow process of the Tangjiashan landslide, and determines the run-out, which coincides exactly with the characteristics of flow-like landslides observed in the field. All of these are essential in the design of supporting structures and site selection for reconstruction in earthquake-prone regions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9859-8 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Zili Dai, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, 200092 Shanghai, China Zhiyi Chen, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Marine overwash from the north a few centuries ago transported hundreds of angular cobbles and boulders tens to hundreds of meters southward from limestone outcrops in the interior of Anegada, 140 km east–northeast of Puerto Rico. We examined two of several cobble and boulder fields as part of an effort to interpret whether the overwash resulted from a tsunami or a storm in a location where both events are known to occur. One of the cobble and boulder field extends 200 m southward from limestone outcrops that are 300 m inland from the island’s north shore. The other field extends 100 m southward from a limestone knoll located 800 m from the nearest shore. In the two fields, we measured the size, orientation, and spatial distribution of a total of 161 clasts and determined their stratigraphic positions with respect to an overwash sand and shell sheet deposit. In both fields, we found the spacing between clasts increased southward and that clast long-axis orientations are consistent with a transport trending north–south. Almost half the clasts are partially buried in a landward thinning and fining overwash sand and none were found embedded in the shelly mud of a pre-overwash marine pond. The two cobble and boulder fields resemble modern tsunami deposits in which dispersed clasts extend inland as a single layer. The fields contrast with coarse clast storm deposits that often form wedge-shaped shore-parallel ridges. These comparisons suggest that the overwash resulted from a tsunami and not from a storm. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9848-y Authors Steve Watt, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Mark Buckley, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Bruce Jaffe, U.S. Geological Survey, 400 Natural Bridges Drive, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Improvements in hurricane forecasts allowing for more timely evacuations from storm-surge zones are credited with reducing lethality of US landfalling hurricanes. The deadly reach of a hurricane, however, is not limited to storm-surge zones. About 80% of direct US hurricane fatalities since 1970 occurred outside of landfall counties, with most of these fatalities caused by inland flooding. We construct a geographic information system database combining the location and cause of fatalities, estimated wind speeds, and rainfall amounts for the entire track of the storm for landfalling US hurricanes between 1970 and 2007. We analyze the determinants of total fatalities and deaths due to freshwater drowning and wind. Inclusion of inland fatalities results in no downward trend in lethality over the period, in contrast to prior research. Local storm conditions significantly affect lethality, as one-inch and one-knot increases in rainfall and wind increase total fatalities by 28 and 4%. Rainfall significantly increases freshwater-drowning deaths and is insignificant for wind deaths, while the opposite relation holds for wind speed. While coastal counties do not exhibit a significantly higher amount of lethality risk versus inland counties for total or wind-driven fatalities, freshwater-drowning fatalities occur most frequently in inland counties along the center of the storm path and its outer county tiers as we have defined them. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9849-x Authors Jeffrey Czajkowski, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Kevin Simmons, Department of Economics, Austin College, Sherman, TX, USA Daniel Sutter, Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas - Pan American, Edinburg, TX, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study explored demographic variations among victims injured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study analyzed records of 2,148 patients who were hospitalized with earthquake-related injuries in 14 hospitals between May 12 and May 21 of 2008. We tested the effects of gender and age on the incidence of fractures and amputations. Although more women than men were hospitalized as earthquake victims, the results indicated that a higher incidence of pelvic fracture in women was the only statistically significant injury with regard to gender. Age had a more complex effect on the rate and pattern of fractures. Children younger than 15 years old were the most likely to sustain skull fractures and amputations. The elderly were the most likely to be associated with limb fractures. Adult men were the most likely to suffer spine fractures and adult women rib fractures. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the results in the context of China’s rural conditions and discusses implications for post-disaster emergency operations and planning. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9836-2 Authors Ying Cao, College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, No. 24 South Section 1, Yihuan Road, Chengdu, 610065 China Nabil Kamel, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Coor Hall, 975 S. Myrtle Ave., Fifth Floor, P.O. Box 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287-5302, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9855-z Authors Mark W. Horner, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA Michael J. Widener, University at Buffalo, 105 Wilkeson Quad, Buffalo, NY 14261-0001, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9845-1 Authors Milou Kievik, Saxion, University for Applied Sciences, PO Box 70.000, 7500 KB Enschede, The Netherlands Jan M. Gutteling, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones—Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9839-z Authors D. V. Bhaskar Rao, TLGVRC, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS 39217, USA Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides interacting with large infrastructures represent a major problem for the economy, society as a whole, and the safety of workers. Continuous monitoring for 23 months using an integrated platform with a ground-based SAR interferometer (GB-InSAR), a weather station, and an automatic camera gave us the opportunity to analyze the response of an unstable slope to the different phases of work. The deformational behavior of both the natural slope and the man-made structures was recorded and interpreted in relation to the working stages and the rainfall conditions during the whole monitoring period. A typical pattern of displacement was identified for shallow landslides, debris produced by the excavation and gabions, metallic walls, and anchored bulkheads. Furthermore, insights into the dynamics and behavior of the slope and the man-made structures that interact with the landslide were obtained. Extreme rainfall is the main trigger of shallow landslides and gabion deformations, while anchored bulkheads are less influenced by rainfalls. Movement of debris that is produced by excavations and temporary metallic barrier deformation are closely related to each other. The herein proposed monitoring platform is very efficient in monitoring unstable slopes that are affected by human activities. Moreover, the recorded patterns of displacement in the slope and the man-made structures can be used as reference data for similar studies and engineering designs. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9840-6 Authors Francesca Bozzano, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Ivan Cipriani, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, “Sapienza” Università di Roma, P.le Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy Paolo Mazzanti, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Alberto Prestininzi, CERI, Research Centre on Prevention, Prediction and Control of Geological Risks, P.zza U. Pilozzi 9, 00038 Valmontone, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In the midst of the ever-increasing natural and human-induced disasters, where many of the preparedness and mitigation measures show inefficiencies, there is narrow margin for decision-makers to make mistakes by misallocating budgets, designing infeasible reconstruction plans, and in other terms, making decisions not in line with the public preferences. In particular, public participation in post-disaster measures seems undoubtedly necessary to reduce the possible economic, social, political, and cultural conflicts around the stressful community after a major disaster. This paper aims at evaluating the role of public participation in increasing the reconstruction phase efficiency through a case study of the reconstruction process in Bam, a southeastern Iranian city, after the 2003 earthquake. It is attempted to identify the major motivators of the public participation through a combination of quantitative and qualitative studies. Statistical data are generated through a set of questionnaires being filled by a number of 200 randomly selected survivors. The numerical results were then discussed through the Focus Group technique sessions to determine the main contributors to the public participation. It is later found that the answers are found among the performance of the reconstruction authorities, financial policies, emotional resiliency of the survivors, public information mechanisms, public satisfaction, the pace of reconstruction, and temporary housing policies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9842-4 Authors Babak Omidvar, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Hossein Zafari, Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, Tehran, Iran Mehdi Khakpour, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, P.O. Box 14155-6135, Tehran, Iran Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    After the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunamigenic earthquake, waters from the ocean moved upstream along rivers, bays, harbors, and lagoons and inundated many coastal and inland locations in the southern, eastern, and northern parts of Sri Lanka. The tsunami waters were observed to move upwards inland and then recede downwards to the ocean after varying inundation periods in different coastal areas. Subsequent massive tsunami waves came with the wave height varying from 3 to 8 m inland with speed of about 30–40 kmph. The oceanic waves carrying heterogeneous sediments with water deposited them in coastal as well as inland locations about 1 km from the present coastline. Given the chaotic nature of tsunami oceanic waves, pre-tsunami deposits, such as beach sands, debris from coral reefs and buildings, parts of vehicles and ships, and tree trunks are found incorporated in authentic tsunami sediments. Thus, the texture, structure, and composition of sediments deposited by tsunami waters differed from one location to another. Therefore, in identifying paleo-tsunami sediments, care was taken to compare them with diagnostic unmixed uncontaminated recent tsunami sediments having characteristic textures and marine microfossil assemblages, such as foraminifera, radiolarians, and diatoms where preserved in coastal depressions. The radiocarbon ages of the carbonate and the organic fractions of these sediments are stratigraphically inconsistent, indicating mixing of sediments by the tsunami waves. The concentrations of organic carbon and nitrogen and their isotopic signatures confirm marine origin of these sediments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9824-6 Authors Kapila Dahanayake, Department of Geology, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Nayomi Kulasena, Roughton International (UK), Southern Transport Development Project, Baddegama, Sri Lanka G. V. Ravi Prasad, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Koushik Dutta, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India D. K. Ray, AMS Radiocarbon Laboratory, Institute of Physics, Bhubaneswar, 751005 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Assessment and inventory on soil erosion hazard are essential for the formulation of successful hazard mitigation plans and sustainable development. The objective of this study was to assess and map soil erosion hazard in Lesser Himalaya with a case study. The Dabka watershed constitutes a part of the Kosi Basin in the Lesser Himalaya, India, in district Nainital has been selected for the case illustration. The average rate of erosion hazard is 0.68 mm/year or 224 tons/km 2 /year. Anthropogenic and geo-environmental factors have together significantly accelerated the rate of erosion. This reconnaissance study estimates the erosion rate over the period of 3 years (2006–2008) as 1.21 mm/year (398 tons/km 2 /year) in the barren land having geological background of diamictite, siltstone and shale rocks, 0.92 mm/year (302 tons/km 2 /year) in the agricultural land with lithology of diamictite, slates, siltstone, limestone rocks, while in the forest land, it varies between 0.20 mm/year (66 tons/km 2 /year) under dense forest land having the geology of quartzwacke and quartrenite rocks and 0.40 mm/year (132 tons/km 2 /year) under open forest/shrubs land having geological setup of shale, dolomite and gypsum rocks. Compared to the intensity of erosion in the least disturbed dense forest, the erosion rate is about 5–6 times higher in the most disturbed agricultural land and barren land, respectively. The erosion hazard zones delineated following scalogram modelling approach. Integrated scalogram modelling approach resulted in severe classes of soil erosion hazard in the study area with numerical values of Erosion Hazard Index (EHI) ranging between 01 (very low hazard) and 5 (very high hazard). Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9833-5 Authors Pradeep K. Rawat, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. C. Tiwari, Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India C. C. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India A. K. Sharama, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India P. D. Pant, Department of Geology, Kumaun University, Nainital, 263002 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem in Indravati catchment. It carries the highest amount of sediments compared with other catchments in India. This catchment spreading an area of 41,285 km 2 is drained by river Indravati, which is one of the northern tributaries of the river Godavari in its lower reach. In the present study, USLE is used to estimate potential soil erosion from river Indravati catchment. Both magnitude and spatial distribution of potential soil erosion in the catchment is determined. The derived soil loss map from USLE model is classified into six categories ranging from slight to very severe risk depending on the calculated soil erosion amount. The soil erosion map is linked to elevation and slope maps to identify the area for conservation practice in order to reduce the soil loss. From the model output predictions, it is found that average erosion rate predicted is 18.00 tons/ha/year and sediment yield at the out let of the catchment is 22.30 Million tons per annum. The predicted sediment yield verified with the observed data. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9832-6 Authors Sreenivasulu Vemu, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Udaya Bhaskar Pinnamaneni, Department of Civil Engineering, JNT University, Kakinada, 533003 AP, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper introduces a new metric for tropical cyclone track shape within the tropical South Pacific (TSP) basin, based on measurements of track sinuosity. A sinuosity index (SI) is developed by applying a simple cube-root transformation to original track sinuosity values. Based on the resulting near-normal SI distribution, an ordinal four-category (quartile) naming system is then proposed for track-type classification. Track sinuosity patterns are also investigated over the last four decades (1970–2008). Analytical findings suggest that cyclone track sinuosity is an important parameter influencing the potential vulnerability of island archipelagoes to cyclone hazard. Principally, sinuously moving cyclones show some tendency for greater longevity and intensity than straighter-tracking storms and make up a larger proportion of systems forming in the western tropical South Pacific than those generated farther east. Although no long-term statistical trend can be established, track sinuosity is highly variable through time, implying that the TSP basin and the islands therein will continue to experience large but irregular inter-annual fluctuations in cyclone track morphology. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9827-3 Authors James P. Terry, Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, AS2, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, 117570 Singapore Gennady Gienko, Department of Geomatics, School of Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508-4514, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9822-8 Authors Honghai Qi, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA M. S. Altinakar, National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering (NCCHE), The University of Mississippi, University, Oxford, MS 38677, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004 ). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco ( 2009 ), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9819-3 Authors Julio Mezcua, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Juan Rueda, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, General Ibáñez de Ibero 3, 28003 Madrid, Spain Rosa M. García Blanco, Departamento de Ingeniería Topográfica y Cartografía, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Campus Sur, Autovía de Valencia km 7.5, 28031 Madrid, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Earthquake-induced landslides are responsible worldwide for significant socioeconomic losses and historically have a prominent position in the list of natural hazards affecting the Iran plateau. As a step toward the development of tools for the assessment and the management of this kind of hazard at regional scale, an empirical estimator of coseismic displacements along potential sliding surfaces was obtained through a regression analysis for the Zagros region, a mountainous Iranian region subjected to earthquake-induced landslides. This estimator, based on the Newmark’s model, allows to evaluate the expected permanent displacement (named “Newmark displacement”) induced by seismic shaking of defined energy on potential sliding surface characterized by a given critical acceleration. To produce regression models for Newmark displacement estimators, a data set was constructed for different critical acceleration values on the basis of 108 accelerometric recordings from 80 Iranian earthquakes with moment magnitudes between 3.6 and 7. The empirical estimator has a general form, proposed by Jibson (Eng Geol 91:209–218, 2007 ), relating Newmark displacement to Arias intensity (as parameter representing the energy of the seismic forces) and to critical acceleration (as parameter representing the dynamic shear resistance of the sliding mass). As an example of application, this relation was employed to provide a basic document for earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment at regional scale, according to a method proposed by Del Gaudio et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 93:557–569, 2003 ), applied to the whole Iranian territory, including Zagros region. This method consists in evaluating the shear resistance required to slopes to limit the occurrence of seismically induced failures, on the basis of the Newmark’s model. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ~0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9829-1 Authors Ali M. Rajabi, Civil Engineering Department, Qom University, PO Box 14115-175, Qom, Iran Mohammad R. Mahdavifar, Geotechnical Engineering Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), PO Box 19395-3913, Tehran, Iran M. Khamehchiyan, Engineering Geology Department, Tarbiat Modares University, PO Box 14115-175, Tehran, Iran V. Del Gaudio, Dipartimento di Geologia e Geofisica, Universita` degli Studi di Bari, Campus, via E.Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused 150 billion dollars in damages , and in recent years , the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around 6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9817-5 Authors Sigridur Bjarnadottir, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Yue Li, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI, USA Mark G. Stewart, Center for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, the applicability of the Newmark method at regional, sub-regional and site scales has been investigated in the Lorca Basin (Murcia). This basin is located in one of the most seismically active regions of Spain. The area is very interesting for studying earthquake-induced slope instabilities as there are well-known cases associated with specific earthquakes. For the regional and sub-regional scales, a geographic information system has been used to develop an implementation of Newmark sliding rigid block method. Soil and topographic amplification effects have been particularly considered. Subsequently, ‘Newmark displacement’ maps for deterministic seismic scenarios have been produced. Some specific studies have also been performed using limit equilibrium methods to estimate the safety factor and the critical acceleration of certain slope instabilities at a site scale. These instabilities were the rock slides related to recent seismic series at the Lorca Basin: 2002 Bullas ( M w  = 5.0) and 2005 La Paca ( M w  = 4.8). Finally, the safety factor, critical acceleration and Newmark displacement values estimated at different scales have been compared to determine which scale is most suitable for the Newmark method. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9820-x Authors Martín Jesús Rodríguez-Peces, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain José Luis Pérez-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Julián García-Mayordomo, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España (IGME), C/La Calera, 1, 28760 Tres Cantos, Madrid, Spain José Miguel Azañón, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, C/Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada, Spain Juan Miguel Insua-Arévalo, Departamento de Geodinámica, Facultad de Ciencias Geológicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain Jorge Delgado-García, Departamento de Ingeniería Cartográfica, Geodésica y Fotogrametría, Universidad de Jaén, Campus de las Lagunillas, s/n. Edif. A3, 23071 Jaén, Spain Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The present study explored the effect of assimilation of Advanced TIROS Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) temperature and humidity profiles and Spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) total precipitable water (TPW) on the simulation of a monsoon depression which formed over the Arabian Sea during September 2005 using the Weather Research and Forecast model. The three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique has been employed for the purpose of assimilation of satellite observations. Statistical scores like “equitable threat score,” “bias score,” “forecast impact,” and “improvement parameter” have been used to examine the impact of the above-mentioned satellite observations on the numerical simulation of a monsoon depression. The diagnostics of this study include verification of the vertical structure of depression, in terms of temperature anomaly profiles and relative vorticity profiles with observations/analysis. Additional diagnostics of the study include the analysis of the heat budget and moisture budget. Such budget studies have been performed to provide information on the role of cumulus convection associated with the depression. The results of this study show direct and good evidence of the impact of the assimilation of the satellite observations using 3DVAR on the dynamical and thermodynamical features of a monsoon depression along with the effect of inclusion of satellite observation on the spatial pattern of the simulated precipitation associated with the depression. The “forecast impact” parameter calculated for the wind speed provides good evidence of the positive impact of the assimilation of ATOVS temperature and humidity profiles and SSM/I TPW on the model simulation, with the assimilation of the ATOVS profiles showing better impact in terms of a more positive value of the “forecast impact” parameter. The results of the study also indicate the improvement of the forecast skill in terms of “equitable threat score” and “bias score” due to the assimilation of satellite observation. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9857-x Authors M. Govindankutty, Department of Physics and Meteorology, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India A. Chandrasekar, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Thiruvananthapuram, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Highways and railroads situated within rugged terrain are often subjected to the hazard of rockfalls. The task of assessing roadside rockmasses for potential hazards typically involves an on-site visual investigation of the rockmass by an engineer or geologist. At that time, numerous parameters associated with discontinuity orientations and spacing, block size (volume) and shape distributions, slope geometry, and ditch profile are either measured or estimated. Measurements are typically tallied according to a formal hazard rating system, and a hazard level is determined for the site. This methodology often involves direct exposure of the evaluating engineer to the hazard and can also create a potentially non-unique record of the assessed slope based on the skill, knowledge and background of the evaluating engineer. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)–based technologies have the capability to produce spatially accurate, high-resolution digital models of physical objects, known as point clouds. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR equipment can collect, at traffic speed, roadside data along highways and rail lines, scanning continual distances of hundreds of kilometres per day. Through the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR, in conjunction with airborne and static systems for problem areas, rockfall hazard analysis workflows can be modified and optimized to produce minimally biased, repeatable results. Traditional rockfall hazard analysis inputs include two distinct, but related sets of variables related to geological or geometric control. Geologically controlled inputs to hazard rating systems include kinematic stability (joint identification/orientation) and rock block shape and size distributions. Geometrically controlled inputs include outcrop shape and size, road, ditch and outcrop profile, road curvature and vehicle line of sight. Inputs from both categories can be extracted or calculated from LiDAR data, although there are some limitations and special sampling and processing considerations related to structural character of the rockmass, as detailed in this paper. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-34 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9872-y Authors Matthew J. Lato, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway Mark S. Diederichs, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada D. Jean Hutchinson, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Rob Harrap, Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A rock slide on top of the clayey–silty–sandy–pebbly masses in the Gschliefgraben (Upper Austria province, Lake Traunsee) having occurred in 2006, together with the humid autumn of 2007, triggered a mudslide comprising a volume up to 4 million m³ and moving with a maximum displacement velocity of 5 m/day during the winter of 2007–2008. The possible damage was estimated up to 60 million € due to the possible destruction of houses and of a road to a settlement with intense tourism. The movement front ran ahead in the creek bed. Therefore, it was assumed that water played an important role. Inclinometer measurements showed that a less permeable layer was sliding on a thin, more permeable layer. During the last centuries, mudslides had already pushed farms into the lake, as reported by chronicles. Thus, the inhabitants of 46 houses had to be evacuated for safety reasons. They could return to their homes after displacement velocities had decreased. It was decided (a) to prevent soaking of water into the uppermost, less permeable layer by transversal drainages, (b) to lower the pore water pressures by longitudinal trenches filled with blocky material, (c) to pump water out of the more permeable layer by well drillings upslope of the houses in order to create a stable block below the houses and (d) to remove material thrust over the stable blocks in order to avoid damage to the houses. These mitigation measures costing 11.5 million € led to a deceleration of the process to displacement velocities of some cm/year up to now. The houses and the road were not damaged. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9865-x Authors R. Poisel, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria R. Hofmann, Geotechnical Engineering Hofmann, Perchtoldsdorf, Austria A. Preh, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria T. Sausgruber, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Geological Service, Innsbruck, Austria M. Schiffer, Austrian Service for Torrent, Erosion and Avalanche Control, Project Management Salzkammergut, Bad Ischl, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Based on an analysis of the working principles of the hydraulic variable pitch system of a wind turbine, a novel Petri net model and reliability evaluation method are proposed. First, Petri net theory is adopted to build a model for each discrete state of the operation of the hydraulic pitch system of the wind turbine and at the same time a fault Petri net model is established. Then through qualitative analysis and quantitative calculations based on the fault Petri net, the system reliability indexes are obtained. During the qualitative analysis process, in order to more conveniently find the minimal cut sets of the fault Petri net, a Visual C++ 6.0-based algorithm is compiled and the minimal cut sets are tested correctly with another method. During the quantitative calculation process, the fault probability has been obtained from the equations according to the fault probability of libraries and transitions between different states. Not only does the proposed Petri net describe the structure, function and operation of the hydraulic pitch system with a graphic language, but the fault Petri net model can also clearly express the logical relations among faults. The novel Petri net model offers simple calculations and the prospect of broad applicability and the new reliability evaluation method provides an important reference for the performance evaluation of these systems.

Description:    The rainfall events that occurred in the Cubatão do Norte River watershed, Santa Catarina State, Brazil, in 2008, were characterized by both high intensities and amounts and triggered landslides in this watershed. The objective of the present study was to analyze the influence of landslides on the turbidity and the total solid concentration (TS) in this river using turbidity, TS, and river discharge data obtained from March 23, 2008, to June 11, 2010. The comparison between turbidity and discharge patterns implies that the landslide process was not continuous and increased the turbidity intermittently and irregularly. The sediment yield during the landslide occurrence was approximately five times higher than without the landslide, even though the discharges were similar. The turbidity/discharge relationship during the landslide occurrence was markedly different from that before and after the occurrence. The correlation coefficients between turbidity and TS showed that the landslide significantly changed the sediment yield in this watershed. The result indicates that sediment yield estimations at the watershed level should be treated more carefully when landslides occur. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9818-4 Authors Masato Kobiyama, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Aline de Almeida Mota, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Fernando Grison, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Joana Nery Giglio, Departamento de Engenharia Sanitária e Ambiental, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This study describes a critical assessment of the risk control decision model from a methodological perspective and identifies major shortcomings with the employment of enhanced formal evaluation and decision-making methods. This in turn could have major applications for natural disaster risk control. The methodology follows the description of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), which is an interactive learning process in which a set of different and directly related elements is structured to form a comprehensive systemic model. The next step explores the potentials of different mathematical programming approaches in order to improve decision making, i.e., for the development of an economic utility constrained-maximization model that addresses the issue of optimal budget allocation under a trade-off framework. Several aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed within the context of an economic utility constrained-maximization model with a major focus on the importance of risk and uncertainty in research evaluation, and how the strategy determines the insurance and risk control plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9861-1 Authors Chun-Pin Tseng, Armaments Bureau, Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology, Taoyuan, Taiwan Cheng-Wu Chen, Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung, 80543 Taiwan Yu-Ping Tu, Department of Logistics Management, Shu-Te University, Kaohsiung, 82445 Taiwan, Republic of China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    District-wide drought climatology over India for the southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been examined using two simple drought indices; Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The season drought indices were computed using long times series (1901–2003) of southwest monsoon season rainfall data of 458 districts over the country. Identification of all India (nation-wide) drought incidences using both PNP and SPI yielded nearly similar results. However, the district-wide climatology based on PNP was biased by the aridity of the region. Whereas district-wide drought climatology based on SPI was not biased by aridity. This study shows that SPI is a better drought index than PNP for the district-wide drought monitoring over the country. SPI is also suitable for examining break and active events in the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country. The trend analysis of district-wide season (June–September) SPI series showed significant negative trends over several districts from Chattisgarh, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha etc., Whereas significant positive trends in the SPI series were observed over several districts from west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, South & north Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, East Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat etc. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9867-8 Authors D. S. Pai, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Latha Sridhar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Pulak Guhathakurta, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India H. R. Hatwar, India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9869-6 Authors Kumar Gaurav, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India R. Sinha, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India P. K. Panda, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur, UP 208016, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tropical cyclone is one of the most devastating weather phenomena all over the world. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has developed a sophisticated mesoscale model known as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for tropical cyclone studies. The state-of-the-art HWRF model (atmospheric component) has been used in simulating most of the features our present study of a very severe tropical cyclone “Mala”, which developed on April 26 over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar on April 29, 2006. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast fields of the NCEP, respectively. The performance of the model is evaluated with simulation of cyclone Mala with six different initial conditions at an interval of 12 h each from 00 UTC 25 April 2006 to 12 UTC 27 April 2006. The best result in terms of track and intensity forecast as obtained from different initial conditions is further investigated for large-scale fields and structure of the cyclone. For this purpose, a number of important predicted fields’ viz. central pressure/pressure drop, winds, precipitation, etc. are verified against observations/verification analysis. Also, some of the simulated diagnostic fields such as relative vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, heat fluxes, precipitation rate, and moisture convergences are investigated for understanding of the characteristics of the cyclone in more detail. The vector displacement errors in track forecasts are calculated with the estimated best track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results indicate that the model is able to capture most of the features of cyclone Mala with reasonable accuracy. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-25 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9863-z Authors Sujata Pattanayak, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Hurricane Research Division, NOAA, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Seasonal water scarcity in southern China has been an issue of concern for many years. The increased frequency of low precipitation in the growing season of rice created a flurry of discussions in the academic and policy arenas. These events severely disrupted the supply of irrigation water for agriculture in paddy field areas and posed a substantial threat to farmers’ livelihoods. Within a broader context of accessing farmers’ resilience to agricultural drought, this paper focuses on the response mechanisms and adaptive strategies adopted by farming households in three types of areas (Plain, Hill, Mountain) in Dingcheng, Hunan Province. With the increasing drought frequency and the pressure from the demand for livelihood improvement, farmers’ response mechanisms have evolved, expanding from short-term adjustments to long-term adaptations, and switching focus from securing reliable water sources to improving irrigation efficiency and diversifying both on- and off- farm productions. The three types of geographic units have different resilience profiles and have developed diverse patterns of adaptive processes that update the conceptual model of Disaster Resilience of “Loss-Response” of Location. It presents a temporal dimension to the study of resilience, which is largely missing from the current literature and provides insights into how to enhance farmers’ response capacities in the face of agricultural drought in southern China. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9873-x Authors Yehong Sun, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China Hongjian Zhou, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Jing’ai Wang, College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 China Yi Yuan, National Disaster Reduction Center of China (NDRCC), No. 6, Guangbaidonglu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100022 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo , based in Southampton and The News , based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9868-7 Authors Amy C. Ruocco, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Robert J. Nicholls, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Ivan D. Haigh, The School of Environment Systems Engineering and UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, M470, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Matthew P. Wadey, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Field survey report on the 11th March 2011 tsunami in Pacific coast of Mexico Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-6 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9871-z Authors M. P. Jonathan, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo (CIIEMAD), Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN), Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán, Del. Gustavo A. Madero, 07340 Mexico, DF, Mexico P. D. Roy, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico J. L. Sánchez-Zavala, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico S. Srinivasalu, Department of Geology, Anna University, Chennai, 600025 India M. C. Macías-Romo, Instituto de Geología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, DF, Mexico C. Lakshumanan, Centre for Remote Sensing, Bharathidasan University, Khajamalai Campus, Thiruchirappalli, 620023 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: :   In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9856-y Authors D. M. McClung, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A susceptibility map for an area, which is representative in terms of both geologic setting and slope instability phenomena of large sectors of the Sicilian Apennines, was produced using slope units and a multiparametric univariate model. The study area, extending for approximately 90 km 2 , was partitioned into 774 slope units, whose expected landslide occurrence was estimated by averaging seven susceptibility values, determined for the selected controlling factors: lithology, mean slope gradient, stream power index at the foot, mean topographic wetness index and profile curvature, slope unit length, and altitude range. Each of the recognized 490 landslides was represented by its centroid point. On the basis of conditional analysis, the susceptibility function here adopted is the density of landslides, computed for each class. Univariate susceptibility models were prepared for each of the controlling factors, and their predictive performance was estimated by prediction rate curves and effectiveness ratio applied to the susceptibility classes. This procedure allowed us to discriminate between effective and non-effective factors, so that only the former was subsequently combined in a multiparametric model, which was used to produce the final susceptibility map. The validation of this map latter enabled us to verify the reliability and predictive performance of the model. Slope unit altitude range and length, lithology and, subordinately, stream power index at the foot of the slope unit demonstrated to be the main controlling factors of landslides, while mean slope gradient, profile curvature, and topographic wetness index gave unsatisfactory results. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9846-0 Authors E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy V. Agnesi, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the results of applying the statistical index and the logistic regression methods for estimating landslide susceptibility in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. In order to do this, first, a landslide inventory map was constructed mainly based on investigated landslide locations from three projects conducted over the last 10 years. In addition, some recent landslide locations were identified from SPOT satellite images, fieldwork, and literature. Secondly, ten influencing factors for landslide occurrence were utilized. The slope gradient map, the slope curvature map, and the slope aspect map were derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) with resolution 20 × 20 m. The DEM was generated from topographic maps at a scale of 1:25,000. The lithology map and the distance to faults map were extracted from Geological and Mineral Resources maps. The soil type and the land use maps were extracted from National Pedology maps and National Land Use Status maps, respectively. Distance to rivers and distance to roads were computed based on river and road networks from topographic maps. In addition, a rainfall map was included in the models. Actual landslide locations were used to verify and to compare the results of landslide susceptibility maps. The accuracy of the results was evaluated by ROC analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the statistical index model was 0.946 and for the logistic regression model, 0.950, indicating an almost equal predicting capacity. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-32 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9844-2 Authors Dieu Tien Bui, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Owe Lofman, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Inge Revhaug, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Oystein Dick, Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003IMT, 1432 Ås, Norway Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Changing characteristics of hazardous weather-related events have been arousing considerable public interest in recent years. Guangdong is an economically developed province in China and is prone to natural hazards. Using monthly precipitation data covering a period of 1956–2008 from 127 rain gauge stations, the probabilistic behaviors of SPI-based droughts were investigated with copulas functions. Results indicated a higher risk of droughts along the coastal regions and the western Guangdong, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Joint probabilities of droughts with higher intensity and longer duration were found to have relatively even geographical distribution across Guangdong. The northern parts of Guangdong are higher in altitude and have a lower risk of droughts. Identification of regions characterized by droughts of different severity and durations across Guangdong is important for scientific management of water resource and agricultural activities and also the development of social resilience under the influence of climate changes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9850-4 Authors Chun-Ling Liu, Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou, 510611 China Qiang Zhang, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Vijay P. Singh, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, USA Ying Cui, Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The landslide studies can be categorized as pre- and postdisaster studies. The predisaster studies include spatial prediction of potential landslide zones known as landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) mapping to identify the areas/locales susceptible to landslide hazard. The LSZ maps provide an assessment of the safety of existing habitations and infrastructural/functional elements and help plan further developmental activities in the hilly regions. Landslides are one of the natural geohazards that affect at least 15% of land area of India. Different types of landslides occur frequently in geodynamical active domains of the Himalayas. In India, various techniques have been developed and adopted for LSZ mapping of different regions. However, the technique for LSZ mapping is not yet standardized. The present research is an attempt in this direction only. In our earlier work (Kanungo et al. 2006 ), a detailed study on conventional, artificial neural network (ANN)- black box-, fuzzy set-based and combined neural and fuzzy weighting techniques for LSZ mapping in Darjeeling Himalayas has been documented. In this paper, other techniques such as combined neural and certainty factor concept along with combined neural and likelihood ratio techniques have been assessed in comparison with combined neural and fuzzy technique for the preparation of LSZ maps of the same study area in parts of Darjeeling Himalayas. It is observed from the present study that the LSZ map produced using combined neural and fuzzy approach appears to be the most accurate one as in this case only 2.3% of the total area is found to be categorized as very high susceptibility zone and contains 30.1% of the existing landslide area. This approach can serve as one of the key objective approaches for spatial prediction of landslide hazards in hilly terrain. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9847-z Authors D. P. Kanungo, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India S. Sarkar, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Shaifaly Sharma, Geotechnical Engineering Division, CSIR-Central Building Research Institute, Roorkee, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Movement of seasonal eddies in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and its relation with cyclonic heat potential (CHP) and cyclogenesis points have been investigated in this study using 6 years (2002–2007) of global ocean monthly analysis datasets based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package (SODA v2.0.4) of Carton et al. ( 2005 ) and Indian Meteorological Department cyclogenesis points. The region dominated by anticyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 70 × 10 7  J/m 2 as well as good correlations (〉0.9) with sea surface height (SSH) and 26°C isothermal depth ( D 26 ) can be a potential region of cyclogenesis. The region dominated by cyclonic eddies with CHP greater than 50 × 10 7  J/m 2 and good correlation (〉0.9) with both SSH and D 26 can serve as a potential region of high-level depression. Potential cyclogenesis regions are the southern BOB (5°N–12°N) for the post-monsoon season and the head of BOB (north of 15°N) during southwest monsoon. Seven potential regions are identified for the eddy formation for different seasons, which are consistent with the cyclogenesis points. The CHP distributions alone are able to explain the cyclone tracks for the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but not for the monsoon season. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9858-9 Authors Bishnu Kumar, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Arun Chakraborty, Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    To overcome the disadvantages of traditional flow analysis methods for liquefied soils that exhibit fluidization and large deformation characteristics, Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is adopted in this study to analyze the flow processes of liquefied soils. Bingham model with the use of the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion, the concepts of equivalent Newtonian viscosity, and the Verlet neighbor list method are introduced into the framework of SPH to build an algorithm for the analysis of flowing liquefied soils. This modeling involves a simulation of physical model test of flowing liquefied soils that can be compared with numerical results. In addition, a shaking table test is selected from the literature for SPH analysis to verify the validation of the SPH method and extend its applications. The SPH simulation can reproduce the flow processes of liquefied soils and constrain estimates of the horizontal displacement, vertical displacement, and velocity of soils after liquefaction. According to the dynamic behaviors of the materials involved, designs can be implemented to improve the seismic safety of structures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9851-3 Authors Yu Huang, Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of the Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Weijie Zhang, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Wuwei Mao, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Chen Jin, Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9854-0 Authors S. Neetu, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India I. Suresh, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India R. Shankar, The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, 600113 India B. Nagarajan, Indian Institute of Surveying and Mapping, Survey of India, Hyderabad, 500039 India R. Sharma, Geodetic and Research Branch, Survey of India, Dehra Dun, 248001 India S. S. C. Shenoi, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, 500055 India A. S. Unnikrishnan, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India D. Sundar, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A very severe cyclonic storm “Aila” hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST = 31°C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43% due to this eddy, which is comparable with that (34%) obtained from a best fit line (derived from several numerical experiments over north-west Pacific Ocean). The shallow mixed layer of the large-scale ocean and deep mixed layer inside the eddy appear to be crucial parameters besides translation speed of the storm (Uh), ambient relative humidity and thermal stratification below mixed layer, in the storm intensification. From the eddy size and Uh, the eddy feedback factor is found to be about 0.4 (i.e. 40%), which is close to the above. Since there exists an inverse relationship between Uh and UOHC (upper ocean heat content), slow (fast) moving storms require high (low) UOHC. The warm ACE4 with a high UOHC of 149 kj/cm 2 (300% higher than the climatological value) and deep warm layer (D26 = 126 m) opposes the cooling induced by the storm and helps for the intensification of the storm through the supply of large enthalpy (latent + sensible) flux. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9837-1 Authors Y. Sadhuram, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India K. Maneesha, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India T. V. Ramana Murty, National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre (CSIR), 176, Lawsons Bay colony, Visakhapatnam, 530017 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9831-7 Authors Yi-Ru Chen, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Chao-Hsien Yeh, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Conservation, Feng Chia University, No. 100 Wenhwa Road, Seatwen, Taichung, 40724 Taiwan Bofu Yu, School of Engineering, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In the framework of a regional landslide susceptibility study in southern Sicily, a test has been carried out in the Tumarrano river basin (about 80 km 2 ) aimed at characterizing its landslide susceptibility conditions by exporting a “source model”, defined and trained inside a limited (about 20 km 2 ) representative sector (the “source area”). Also, the possibility of exploiting Google Earth ™ software and photo-images databank to produce the landslide archives has been checked. The susceptibility model was defined, according to a multivariate geostatistic approach based on the conditional analysis, using unique condition units (UCUs), which were obtained by combining four selected controlling factors: outcropping lithology, steepness, plan curvature and topographic wetness index. The prediction skill of the exported model, trained with 206 landslides, is compared with the one estimated for the whole studied area, by using a complete landslide archive (703 landslides), to see to what extent the largest time/money costs needed are accounted for. The investigated area stretches in the fore-deep sector of southern Sicily, where clayey rocks, mainly referring to the Numidian Flysch and the Terravecchia Formations, largely crop out. The results of the study confirm both the exploitability of Google Earth ™ to produce landslide archive and possibility to adopt in assessing the landslide susceptibility for large basin, a strategy based on the exportation of models trained in limited representative sectors. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-12 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9870-0 Authors D. Costanzo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Cappadonia, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy C. Conoscenti, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy E. Rotigliano, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Palermo, Italy Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13 hPa in CSLP and 11 m s −1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125 mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155 km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66 km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24 h (116 km error) and 72 h (166 km) but superior in 48-h (119 km) track forecast. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0 Authors Krishna K. Osuri, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India U. C. Mohanty, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India A. Routray, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Institutional Area, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India Makarand A. Kulkarni, Indian Institute of Technology, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016 India M. Mohapatra, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: This study integrates photovoltaic (PV) system, building structure, and heat flow mechanism to propose the notion of ventilated Building-Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) walls. The energy-saving potential of the ventilated BIPV walls was investigated via engineering considerations and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The results show that the heat removal rate and indoor heat gain of the proposed ventilated BIPV walls were dominantly affected by outdoor wind velocity and airflow channel width. Correlations for predicting the heat removal rate and indoor heat gain, the reduction ratio of the indoor heat gain, CO2 reduction, and induced indoor air exchange are introduced.

Description: Accurate electric load forecasting has become the most important issue in energy management; however, electric load demonstrates a seasonal/cyclic tendency from economic activities or the cyclic nature of climate. The applications of the support vector regression (SVR) model to deal with seasonal/cyclic electric load forecasting have not been widely explored. The purpose of this paper is to present a SVR model which combines the seasonal adjustment mechanism and a chaotic immune algorithm (namely SSVRCIA) to forecast monthly electric loads. Based on the operation procedure of the immune algorithm (IA), if the population diversity of an initial population cannot be maintained under selective pressure, then IA could only seek for the solutions in the narrow space and the solution is far from the global optimum (premature convergence). The proposed chaotic immune algorithm (CIA) based on the chaos optimization algorithm and IA, which diversifies the initial definition domain in stochastic optimization procedures, is used to overcome the premature local optimum issue in determining three parameters of a SVR model. A numerical example from an existing reference is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SSVRCIA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the ARIMA and TF-ε-SVR-SA models, and therefore the SSVRCIA model is a promising alternative for electric load forecasting.

Description:    Anytime that tornadoes interface with people, the results are often grim. The varied characteristics of tornado windfields and the diverse techniques of home construction complicate the expected outcomes of such interactions. Since it is now known that tornadoes do not produce unfathomable winds, engineers have developed techniques for increasing a home’s tornado resistance; thus, increasing the odds of survival of the inhabitants. Even considering these advances, tornadoes still wreak havoc and cause much causality every year. The story of tornado survival is partly chance, partly knowledge, and partly science. This essay utilizes analogies between a popular motion picture and the state of the art of tornado-resistant construction to illustrate the good, the bad, and the ugly facts of tornado survival. First examined are the positive aspects of tornado probability. The odds of experiencing a tornado are so low that massive expenditures are not necessarily cost effective. Next, various techniques of tornado-resistant construction practices are included for new and existing structures. Introduction of equations for predicting debris penetration are compared with various building techniques to describe the viability of tornado protection. The negative aspect of tornado/structure interfaces describes the fact that despite contemporary construction and prevention exercise, the unpredictability of the tornado windfield causes tremendous damage and loss of life. The final section examines the interface between tornadoes and mobile homes. This proves very ugly in every aspect of the word. Statistics and equations confirm the inherent dangers of such an interaction. Also, described is a novel approach to the design of a portable tornado shelter. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9875-8 Authors Bobby G. McPeak, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Atila Ertas, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Risk assessment of natural hazards is often based on the actual or forecast weather situation. For estimating such climate-related risks, it is important to obtain weather data as frequently as possible. One commonly used climate interpolation routine is DAYMET, which in its current form is not able to update its database for periods of less than a year. In this paper, we report the construction of a new climate database with a standard interface and implement a framework for providing daily updated weather data for online daily weather interpolations across regions. We re-implement the interpolation routines from DAYMET to be compliant with the data handling in the new framework. We determine the optimal number of stations used in two possible interpolation routines, assess the error bounds using an independent validation dataset and compare the results with a previous validation study based on the original DAYMET implementation. Mean absolute errors are 1°C for maximum and minimum temperature, 28 mm for precipitation, 3.2 MJ/m² for solar radiation and 1 hPa for vapour pressure deficit, which is in the range of the original DAYMET routine. Finally, we provide an example application of the methodology and derive a fire danger index for a 1 km grid over Austria. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-14 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9880-y Authors Richard Petritsch, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Hubert Hasenauer, Institute of Silviculture, BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Tropical cyclones are the most common natural disasters in coastal regions and are the most costly in terms of economic losses. Economic loss assessment is the basis for disaster prevention and alleviation and for insurance indemnification. We use data from 1970 to 2008 for Zhejiang Province, China, in this study evaluating economic losses. We convert direct economic losses from tropical cyclone disasters in Zhejiang Province into indices of direct economic losses. To establish our assessment model, we process disaster-inducing assessment factors, disaster-formative environments and disaster-affected bodies using the principal component analysis method, and we abstract the principal component as the input of a BP neural network model. We found in the actual assessments of five tropical cyclones affecting Zhejiang Province in 2007 and 2008 that the post-disaster loss assessment values of tropical cyclones were higher than the actual losses, but that for more severe storms, the gap was smaller. This reflects the beneficial effect of efforts toward disaster prevention and alleviation for severe tropical cyclones. Pre-assessments based on relatively accurate forecast values of wind and precipitation at the start of a tropical cyclone have been in accordance with the post-disaster assessment values, while the pre-assessment results using less accurate forecast values have been unsatisfactory. Therefore, this model can be applied in the actual assessment of direct economic loss from tropical cyclone damage, but increasingly accurate forecasting of wind and precipitation remains crucial to improving the accuracy of pre-assessments. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9881-x Authors Wei-ping Lou, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Hai-yan Chen, Zhejiang Weather Station, Hangzhou, China Xin-fa Qiu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China Qi-yi Tang, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China Feng Zheng, Wenzhou Weather Bureau, Wenzhou, China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    High winds are one of the nation’s leading damage-producing storm conditions. They do not include winds from tornadoes, winter storms, nor hurricanes, but are strong winds generated by deep low pressure centers, by thunderstorms, or by air flow over mountain ranges. The annual average property and crop losses in the United States from windstorms are $379 million and windstorms during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km 2 . In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between 10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses 〉$1 million, labeled catastrophes, during 1952–2006 totaled 176, an annual average of 3.2. Catastrophic windstorm losses were highest in the West and Northwest climate regions, the only form of severe weather in the United States with maximum losses on the West Coast. Most western storms occurred in the winter, a result of Pacific lows, and California has had 31 windstorm catastrophes, more than any other state. The national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952–2006 has a flat trend, but their losses display a distinct upward trend with time, peaking during 1996–2006. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-13 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9828-2 Authors Stanley A. Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey, University of Illinois, 801 E. Buckthorn, Mahomet, IL 61853, USA Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai, China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during 1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and necessary for local government and the public in the future. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9877-6 Authors Jun Shi, Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 200030 China Linli Cui, Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, Shanghai, 201100 China Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-24 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9860-2 Authors Tobias Bolch, Geographisches Institut, Universität Zürich, 8059 Zürich, Switzerland Juliane Peters, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Alexandr Yegorov, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Biswajeet Pradhan, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Manfred Buchroithner, Institut für Kartographie, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany Victor Blagoveshchensky, Institute of Geography of Ministry of Education and Sciences of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    Landslides cause heavy damage to property and infrastructure, in addition to being responsible for the loss of human lives in many parts of the Turkey. The paper presents GIS-based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the regions of the Sultan Mountains, West of Akşehir, and central part of Turkey. Landslides occur frequently in the area and seriously affect local living conditions. Therefore, spatial analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Sultan Mountains is important. The relationships between landslide distributions with the 19 landslide affecting parameters were analysed using a Bayesian model. In the study area, 90 landslides were observed. The landslides were randomly subdivided into 80 training landslides and 10 test landslides. A landslide susceptibility map was produced by using the training landslides. The test landslides were used in the accuracy control of the produced landslide susceptibility map. Approximately 9% of the study area was classified as high susceptibility zone. Medium, low and very low susceptibility zones covered 8, 23 and 60% of the study area, respectively. Most of the locations of the observed landslides actually fall into moderate (17.78%) and high (77.78. %) susceptibility zones of the produced landslide susceptibility map. This validates the applicability of proposed methods, approaches and the classification scheme. The high susceptibility zone is along both sides of the Akşehir Fault and at the north-eastern slope of the Sultan Mountains. It was determined that the surface area of the Harlak and Deresenek formations, which have attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base, and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,600 m, a slope gradient of 25°–35° and a slope aspect of 22.5°–157.5° facing slopes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-35 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9853-1 Authors Adnan Ozdemir, Department of Geological Engineering, Selcuk University, Konya, Turkey Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description: Editorial for the special issue: vulnerability to natural hazards—the challenge of integration Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9825-5 Authors Sven Fuchs, Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Wien, Austria Christian Kuhlicke, Department of Urban and Environmental Sociology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Volker Meyer, Department of Economics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A comparative analysis of six vulnerability models aims to identify differences and similarities between several approaches towards understanding vulnerability. The analysis yields a set of characteristics for explaining the condition of vulnerability (multiple contexts, multiple dimensions, temporal variability, multiple scales and scale-interdependency). In addition, ‘adaptation’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ are identified as key elements of vulnerability. The results of the analysis are put into a wider context not only of vulnerability but also of resilience and risk research. It is demonstrated that ‘adaptation’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ serve as hinges not only for conceptualising vulnerability but between ‘vulnerability’ and ‘resilience’ alike. Based on the results of the comparative analysis, a model of vulnerability focussing on the household and community scale is developed, which displays the key findings of this work. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9823-7 Authors Gabi Hufschmidt, Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity ( Z ), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9835-3 Authors Kuldeep Srivastava, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003 India Rashmi Bhardwaj, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Kashmere Gate, Delhi, 110403 India S. K. Roy Bhowmik, India Meteorological Department, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    This paper explores the advantages of applying the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER) and the related thinking in transdisciplinary research. The theoretical reflections are exemplified by transdisciplinary research experiences using the concept of SER as a bridging concept in the field of climate-change adaptation instead of developing a new and very context-specific conceptual bridge. The findings are based on ontological reflections concerning the complex and hybrid phenomenon of climate change and the need for transdisciplinary research as well as on reflections on the performed interdisciplinary research and the exploratory transdisciplinary research approach with practitioners from the German administration. The experiences so far have shown that it was more focused on the general ideas of social-ecological resilience thinking instead of using the concept of SER as an analytical tool. We conclude that the use of a common conceptual framework in general and of social-ecological resilience thinking in particular offers tangible advantages in transdisciplinary research dealing with climate change and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. In our case, social-ecological resilience thinking helped—after translation into practical terms—to open the field for further consideration from the very beginning as well as to open the space for common creative work; to define the problem; and to choose the relevant variables to look at. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9821-9 Authors Sonja Deppisch, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Sanin Hasibovic, HafenCity University Hamburg, Winterhuder Weg 31, 22085 Hamburg, Germany Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X

Description:    A 97-day-long record on waves and currents was obtained using wave rider buoy and current meter moored at 2.5 km off Gopalpur from 19 May to 23 August 2008 representing southwest monsoon months. A Valeport tide gauge was used to record water level at Gopalpur port. Simultaneously, beach profiles at 4 transects were monitored using real-time kinematic (RTK) global positioning system (GPS). A total of 636,167 waves were analyzed for the period; a range of 3,200–9,700 waves approach the coast in an individual day. During the study, unusual characteristics of wave were observed on July 29, 2008, with a magnitude of significant wave height, H s  = 2.85 m, maximum wave height, H max  = 5.22 m, and peak wave period, T p  = 10.2 s, and on August 11, 2008, with H s  = 2.28 m, H max  = 5.37 m, and T p  = 11.1 s. Significant beach loss was noticed during these periods, and severe erosion was recorded on August 1, 2008. Beach profile data indicates that 18–58 cu. m/m sediment was lost during the study period. The paper provides an overview of the statistical analysis of wave heights, periods, direction, and spectral energy density and explains the cause of coastal erosion and loss of sediment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-15 DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-9826-4 Authors P. Mishra, ICMAM Project Directorate, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India S. K. Patra, National Institute of Ocean Technology, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India M. V. Ramana Murthy, National Institute of Ocean Technology, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India P. K. Mohanty, Department of Marine Sciences, Berhampur University, Berhampur, Orissa, 760007 India U. S. Panda, ICMAM Project Directorate, NIOT Campus, Pallikaranai, Chennai, 600100 India Journal Natural Hazards Online ISSN 1573-0840 Print ISSN 0921-030X