ALBERT

Description: In this work we have performed a detailed study of vectors to ore to a representative volcanic-rock-hosted replacive volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit located in the northern Iberian Pyrite Belt (Spain), the Aguas Teñidas deposit. The investigated vectors include the following: (1) mineralogical zoning, (2) host sequence characterization and mineralized unit identification based on whole rock geochemistry discrimination diagrams, (3) study of the characteristics and behaviour of whole rock geochemical anomalies around the ore (e.g. alteration-related compositional changes, characteristics and extent of geochemical halos of indicative elements such as Cu, Zn, Pb, Sb, Tl, and Ba around the deposit), and (4) application of portable X-ray fluorescence (p-XRF) analysis to the detection of the previous vectors. In the footwall, a concentric cone-shaped hydrothermal alteration zone bearing the stockwork passes laterally, from core to edge, from quartz (only local) to chlorite–quartz, sericite–chlorite–quartz, and sericite–quartz alteration zones. The hydrothermal alteration is also found in the hanging wall despite being tectonically allochthonous to the orebody: a proximal sericite alteration zone is followed by a more distal albite-rich one. Whole rock major elements show an increase in alteration indexes (e.g. AI, CCPI) towards the mineralization, a general SiO2 enrichment, and FeO enrichment as well as K2O and Na2O depletion towards the centre of the hydrothermal system, with MgO showing a less systematic behaviour. K2O and Na2O leached from the centre of the system are transported and deposited in more external areas. Copper, Pb, and Zn produce proximal anomalies around mineralized areas, with the more mobile Sb, Tl, and Ba generating wider halos. Whereas Sb and Tl halos form around all mineralized areas, Ba anomalies are restricted to areas around the massive sulfide body. Our results show that proposed vectors, or adaptations designed to overcome p-XRF limitations, can be confidently used by analysing unprepared hand specimens, including the external rough curved surface of drill cores. The data presented in this work are not only applicable to VMS exploration in the Iberian Pyrite Belt, but on a broader scale they will also contribute to improving our general understanding of vectors to ore in replacive-type VMS deposits.

Description: The use of mass flow simulations in volcanic hazard zonation and mapping is often limited by model complexity (i.e. uncertainty in correct values of model parameters), a lack of model uncertainty quantification, and limited approaches to incorporate this uncertainty into hazard maps. When quantified, mass flow simulation errors are typically evaluated on a pixel-pair basis, using the difference between simulated and observed (“actual”) map-cell values to evaluate the performance of a model. However, these comparisons conflate location and quantification errors, neglecting possible spatial autocorrelation of evaluated errors. As a result, model performance assessments typically yield moderate accuracy values. In this paper, similarly moderate accuracy values were found in a performance assessment of three depth-averaged numerical models using the 2012 debris avalanche from the Upper Te Maari crater, Tongariro Volcano, as a benchmark. To provide a fairer assessment of performance and evaluate spatial covariance of errors, we use a fuzzy set approach to indicate the proximity of similarly valued map cells. This “fuzzification” of simulated results yields improvements in targeted performance metrics relative to a length scale parameter at the expense of decreases in opposing metrics (e.g. fewer false negatives result in more false positives) and a reduction in resolution. The use of this approach to generate hazard zones incorporating the identified uncertainty and associated trade-offs is demonstrated and indicates a potential use for informed stakeholders by reducing the complexity of uncertainty estimation and supporting decision-making from simulated data.

Description: The Phanerozoic tectonothermal evolution of the SW slope of the East European Platform (EEP) in Poland is reconstructed by means of thermal maturity, low-temperature thermochronometry, and thermal modelling. We provide a set of new thermochronometric data and integrate stratigraphic and thermal maturity information to constrain the burial and thermal history of sediments. Apatite fission track (AFT) analysis and zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) thermochronology have been carried out on samples of sandstones, bentonites, diabase, and crystalline basement rocks collected from 17 boreholes located in central and NE Poland. They penetrated sedimentary cover of the EEP subdivided from the north to south into the Baltic, Podlasie, and Lublin basins. The average ZHe ages from Proterozoic basement rocks as well as Ordovician to Silurian bentonites and Cambrian to lower Carboniferous sandstones range from 848 ± 81 to 255 ± 22 Ma with a single early Permian age of 288 Ma, corresponding to cooling after a thermal event. The remaining ZHe ages represent partial reset or source ages. The AFT ages of samples are dispersed in the range of 235.8 ± 17.3 Ma (Middle Triassic) to 42.1 ± 11.1 Ma (Paleogene) providing a record of Mesozoic and Cenozoic cooling. The highest frequency of the AFT ages is in the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous prior to Alpine basin inversion. Thermal maturity results are consistent with the SW-ward increase of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic sediments thickness. An important break in a thermal maturity profile exists across the base Permian–Mesozoic unconformity. Thermal modelling showed that significant heating of Ediacaran to Carboniferous sedimentary successions occurred before the Permian with maximum paleotemperatures in the earliest and latest Carboniferous for Baltic–Podlasie and Lublin basins, respectively. The results obtained suggest an important role of early Carboniferous uplift and exhumation at the SW margin of the EEP. The SW slope of the latter was afterward overridden in the Lublin Basin by the Variscan orogenic wedge. Its tectonic loading interrupted Carboniferous uplift and caused resumption of sedimentation in the late Viséan. Consequently, a thermal history of the Lublin Basin is different from that in the Podlasie and Baltic basins but similar to other sections of the Variscan foreland, characterized by maximum burial at the end of Carboniferous. The Mesozoic thermal history was characterized by gradual cooling from peak temperatures at the transition from Triassic to Jurassic due to decreasing heat flow. Burial caused maximum paleotemperatures in the SW part of the study area, where the EEP was covered by an extensive sedimentary pile. However, further NE, due to low temperatures caused by shallow burial, the impact of fluids can be detected by vitrinite reflectance, illite/smectite, and thermochronological data. Our new results emphasize the importance of using multiple low-temperature thermochronometers and thermal modelling in connection with thermal maturity analysis to elucidate the near-surface evolution of platform margins.

Description: Coincident wide-angle and multi-channel seismic data acquired within the scope of the PAMELA Moz3-5 project allow us to reconsider the formation mechanism of East African margins offshore of southern Mozambique. This study specifically focuses on the sedimentary and deep-crustal architecture of the Limpopo margin (LM) that fringes the eastern edge of the Mozambique’s Coastal Plain (MCP) and its offshore southern prolongation the North Natal Valley (NNV). It relies primarily on the MZ3 profile that runs obliquely from the northeastern NNV towards the Mozambique basin (MB) with additional inputs from a tectonostratigraphy analysis of industrial onshore–offshore seismic lines and nearby or crossing velocity models from companion studies. Over its entire N–S extension the LM appears segmented into (1) a western domain that shows the progressive eastward crustal thinning and termination of the MCP/NNV continental crust and its overlying pre-Neocomian volcano-sedimentary basement and (2) a central corridor of anomalous crust bounded to the east by the Mozambique fracture zone (MFZ) and the oceanic crust of the MB. A prominent basement high marks the boundary between these two domains. Its development was most probably controlled by a steep and deeply rooted fault, i.e., the Limpopo fault. We infer that strike-slip or slightly transtensional rifting occurred along the LM and was accommodated along this Limpopo fault. At depth we propose that ductile shearing was responsible for the thinning of the continental crust and an oceanward flow of lower crustal material. This process was accompanied by intense magmatism that extruded to form the volcanic basement and gave the corridor its peculiar structure and mixed nature. The whole region remained at a relative high level during the rifting period and a shallow marine environment dominated the pre-Neocomian period during the early phase of continent–ocean interaction. It is only some time after break-up in the MB and the initiation of the MFZ that decoupling occurred between the MCP/NNV and the corridor, allowing for the latter to subside and become covered by deep marine sediments. A scenario for the early evolution and formation of the LM is proposed taking into account both recent kinematic and geological constraints. It implies that no or little change in extensional direction occurred between the intra-continental rifting and subsequent phase of continent–ocean interaction.

Description: In four study areas within different lithological settings and rockfall activity, lidar data were applied for a morphometric analysis of block sizes, block shapes and talus cone characteristics. This information was used to investigate the dependencies between block size, block shape and lithology on the one hand and runout distances on the other hand. In our study, we were able to show that lithology seems to have an influence on block size and shape and that gravitational sorting did not occur on all of the studied debris cones but that other parameters apparently control the runout length of boulders. Such a parameter seems to be the block shape, as it plays the role of a moderating parameter in two of the four study sites, while we could not confirm this for our other study sites. We also investigated the influence of terrain parameters such as slope inclination, profile curvature and roughness. The derived roughness values show a clear difference between the four study sites and seem to be a good proxy for block size distribution on the talus cones and thus could be used in further studies to analyse a larger sample of block size distribution on talus cones with different lithologies.

Description: Recent seismicity in Alberta and north-east British Columbia has been attributed to ongoing oil and gas development in the area, due to its temporal and spatial correlation. Prior to such development, the area was seismically quiescent. Here, we show evidence that latent seismicity may occur in areas where previous operations have occurred, even during a shutdown in operations. The global COVID-19 pandemic furnished the unique opportunity to study seismicity during a long period of anthropogenic quiescence. Within the Kiskatinaw area of British Columbia, 389 events were detected from April to August 2020, which encompasses a period with very little hydraulic fracturing operations. This reduction in operations was the result of a government-imposed lockdown severely restricting the movement of people as well as a downturn in the economic market causing industry stock prices to collapse. Except for a reduction in the seismicity rate and a lack of temporal clustering that is often characteristic of hydraulic fracturing induced sequences, the general characteristics of the observed seismicity were similar to the preceding time period of active operations. During the period of relative quiescence, event magnitudes were observed between ML −0.7 and ML 1.2, which is consistent with previous event magnitudes in the area. Hypocentres occurred in a corridor orientated NW–SE, just as seismicity had done in previous years, and were located at depths associated with the target Montney formation or shallower (

Description: This study was performed in the framework of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment), which aimed to study the heavy precipitation that regularly affects the Mediterranean area. A reanalysis with a convective-scale model AROME-WMED (Application of Research to Operations at MEsoscale western Mediterranean) was performed, which assimilated most of the available data for a 2-month period corresponding to the first special observation period of the field campaign (Fourrié et al., 2019). Among them, observations related to the low-level humidity flow were assimilated. Such observations are important for the description of the feeding of the convective mesoscale systems with humidity (Duffourg and Ducrocq, 2011; Bresson et al., 2012; Ricard et al., 2012). Among them there were a dense reprocessed network of high-quality Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay (ZTD) observations, reprocessed data from wind profilers, lidar-derived vertical profiles of humidity (ground and airborne) and Spanish radar data. The aim of the paper is to assess the impact of the assimilation of these four observation types on the analyses and the forecasts from the 3 h forecast range (first guess) up to the 48 h forecast range. In order to assess this impact, several observing system experiments (OSEs) or so-called denial experiments, were carried out by removing one single data set from the observation data set assimilated in the reanalysis. Among the evaluated observations, it is found that the ground-based GNSS ZTD data set provides the largest impact on the analyses and the forecasts, as it represents an evenly spread and frequent data set providing information at each analysis time over the AROME-WMED domain. The impact of the reprocessing of GNSS ZTD data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant. The assimilation of the Spanish radar data improves the 3 h precipitation forecast quality as well as the short-term (30 h) precipitation forecasts, but this impact remains located over Spain. Moreover, marginal impact from wind profilers was observed on wind background quality. No impacts have been found regarding lidar data, as they represent a very small data set, mainly located over the sea.

Description: The case of the heavy precipitation event on 14 and 15 October 2018 which has led to severe flash flooding in the Aude watershed in south-western France is studied from a meteorological point of view using deterministic and probabilistic numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. This case features typical characteristics of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events such as its classic synoptic situation and its quasi-stationary convective precipitation that regenerates continuously, as well as some peculiarities such as the presence of a former hurricane and a pre-existing cold air mass close to the ground. Mediterranean Sea surface temperature and soil moisture anomalies are briefly reviewed, as they are known to play a role in this type of hydrometeorological events. A study of rainfall forecasts shows that the event had limited predictability, in particular given the small size of the watersheds involved. It is shown that the stationarity of precipitation, whose estimation benefits from data from personal stations, is linked to the presence near the ground of a trough and a strong potential virtual temperature gradient, the stationarity of both of which is highlighted by a combination of observations from standard and personal stations. The forecast that comes closest to the rainfall observations contains the warmest, wettest, and fastest low-level jet and also simulates near the ground a trough and a marked boundary between cold air in the west and warm air in the east, both of which are stationary.

Description: Seismometers have detected the social response to lockdown measures implemented following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in cities around the world. This long-lasting pandemic has been a particular challenge in countries such as Mexico, where the informal economy constitutes most of the working population. This context motivated the monitoring of the mobility of populations throughout the various phases of lockdown measures independently of people's access to the internet and mobile technology. Here we use the variation of anthropogenic seismic noise in the city of Querétaro (central Mexico) recorded by a network of low-cost Raspberry Shake seismic stations to study the spatial and temporal variation of human activity in the city throughout the pandemic and during sporting events. The results emphasize the importance of densifying urban seismic networks and of tracking human activities without the privacy concerns associated with mobile technology.

Description: The ongoing phenomenon of climate change is leading to an upsurge in the number of extreme events. Territories must adapt to these modifications in order to protect their populations and the properties present in coastal areas. The adaptation of coastal areas also aims to make them more resilient to future events. In this article, we examine two strategies for adapting to coastal risks: holding the coastal line through hard constructions such as seawalls or ripraps and the managed retreat of activities and populations to a part of the territory not exposed to hazards. In France, these approaches are financed by a solidarity insurance system at the national level as well as local taxes. These solidarity systems aim to compensate the affected populations and finance implementation of the strategies chosen by local authorities. However, the French mainland coast generally attracts affluent residents, the price of land being higher than inland. This situation induces the presence of inequalities in these territories, inequalities which can be maintained or reinforced in the short and medium term when a defense strategy based on hard constructions is implemented. In such a trajectory, it appears that these territories would be less resilient in the long term because of the maintenance costs of the structures and the uncertainties relating to the hazards (submersion, rising sea levels, erosion). Conversely, with a managed-retreat strategy, inequalities would instead be done away with since property and populations would no longer be exposed to hazards, which would cost society less and would lead these territories towards greater resilience in the long term. Only one social group would be strongly impacted by this strategy in the short term when they are subjected to a managed retreat to another part of the territory.

Description: Assessing the risk of a historical-level flood is essential for regional flood protection and resilience establishment. However, due to the limited spatiotemporal coverage of observations, the impact assessment relies on model simulations and is thus subject to uncertainties from cascade physical processes. This study assesses the flood hazard map with uncertainties subject to different combinations of runoff inputs, variables for flood frequency analysis and fitting distributions based on estimations by the CaMa-Flood global hydrodynamic model. Our results show that deviation in the runoff inputs is the most influential source of uncertainties in the estimated flooded water depth and inundation area, contributing more than 80 % of the total uncertainties investigated in this study. Global and regional inundation maps for floods with 1-in-100 year return periods show large uncertainty values but small uncertainty ratios for river channels and lakes, while the opposite results are found for dry zones and mountainous regions. This uncertainty is a result of increasing variation at tails among various fitting distributions. In addition, the uncertainty between selected variables is limited but increases from the regular period to the rarer floods, both for the water depth at points and for inundation area over regions. The uncertainties in inundation area also lead to uncertainties in estimating the population and economy exposure to the floods. In total, inundation accounts for 9.1 % [8.1 %–10.3 %] of the land area for a 1-in-100 year flood, leading to 13.4 % [12.1 %–15 %] of population exposure and 13.1 % [11.8 %–14.7 %] of economic exposure for the globe. The flood exposure and uncertainties vary by continent and the results in Africa have the largest uncertainty, probably due to the limited observations to constrain runoff simulations, indicating a necessity to improve the performance of different hydrological models especially for data-limited regions.

Description: In this study, we present an estimate of the gravity signal of the slabs beneath the Alpine mountain belt. Estimates of the gravity effect of the subducting slabs are often omitted or simplified in crustal-scale models. The related signal is calculated here for alternative slab configurations at near-surface height and at a satellite altitude of 225 km. We apply three different modelling approaches in order to estimate the gravity signal from the subducting slab segments: (i) direct conversion of upper mantle seismic velocities to density distribution, which are then forward calculated to obtain the gravity signal; (ii) definition of slab geometries based on seismic crustal thickness and high-resolution upper mantle tomography for two competing slab configurations – the geometries are then forward calculated by assigning a constant density contrast and slab thickness; (iii) accounting for compositional and thermal variations with depth within the predefined slab geometry. Forward calculations predict a gravity signal of up to 40 mGal for the Alpine slab configuration. Significant differences in the gravity anomaly patterns are visible for different slab geometries in the near-surface gravity field. However, different contributing slab segments are not easily separated, especially at satellite altitude. Our results demonstrate that future studies addressing the lithospheric structure of the Alps should have to account for the subducting slabs in order to provide a meaningful representation of the geodynamic complex Alpine area.

Description: Enhancing resilience is critical for coastal urban systems to cope with and minimize flood disaster risks. This issue is certainly more important in Africa, where the increase in flood frequency is a significant concern for many areas. In this context, urban planners need accurate approaches to set up a standard for measuring the resilience to floods. In Morocco, this issue is still not fully covered by the scientific community despite the obvious need for a new approach adapted to local conditions. This study applied a composite index and geographic-information-system approach to measure and map resilience to floods in three northern coastal municipalities. The approach is also based on a linear ranking of resilience parameters, offering a more optimal classification of spatial resilience variation. The results allowed us to identify specific areas with different resilience levels and revealed the relationship between urban dimensions and the flood resilience degree. This approach provides an efficient decision-support tool to facilitate flood risk management, especially in terms of prioritizing protective actions.

Description: In this study, the detection and characteristics of dry/wet spells (defined as episodes when precipitation is abnormally low or high compared to usual climatology) drawn from several datasets are compared for Senegal. Here, four datasets are based on satellite data (TRMM-3B42 V7, CMORPH V1.0, TAMSAT V3, and CHIRPS V2. 0), two on reanalysis products (NCEP-CFSR and ERA5), and three on rain gauge observations (CPC Unified V1.0/RT and a 65-rain-gauge network regridded by using two kriging methods, namely ordinary kriging, OK, and block kriging, BK). All datasets were converted to the same spatio-temporal resolution: daily cumulative rainfall on a regular 0.25∘ grid. The BK dataset was used as a reference. Despite strong agreement between the datasets on the spatial variability in cumulative seasonal rainfall (correlations ranging from 0.94 to 0.99), there were significant disparities in dry/wet spells. The occurrence of dry spells is less in products using infrared measurement techniques than in products coupling infrared and microwave, pointing to more frequent dry spell events. All datasets show that dry spells appear to be more frequent at the start and end of rainy seasons. Thus, dry spell occurrences have a major influence on the duration of the rainy season, in particular through the “false onset” or “early cessation” of seasons. The amplitude of wet spells shows the greatest variation between datasets. Indeed, these major wet spells appear more intense in the OK and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets than in the others. Lastly, the products indicate a similar wet spell frequency occurring at the height of the West African monsoon. Our findings provide guidance in choosing the most suitable datasets for implementing early warning systems (EWSs) using a multi-risk approach and integrating effective dry/wet spell indicators for monitoring and detecting extreme events.

Description: The origin of intraplate volcanism is not explained by plate tectonic theory, and several models have been put forward for explanation. One of these models involves edge-driven convection (EDC), in which cold and thick continental lithosphere is juxtaposed with warm and thin oceanic lithosphere to trigger convective instability. To test whether EDC can produce long-lived high-volume magmatism, we run numerical models of EDC for a wide range of mantle properties and edge (i.e., the oceanic–continental transition) geometries. We find that the most important parameters that govern EDC are the rheological parameters mantle viscosity η0 and activation energy Ea. However, even the maximum melting volumes predicted by our most extreme cases are insufficient to account for island-building volcanism on old seafloor, such as at the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Also, beneath old seafloor, localized EDC-related melting commonly transitions into widespread melting due to small-scale sublithospheric convection, inconsistent with the distribution of volcanism at these volcano chains. In turn, EDC is a good candidate to sustain the formation of small seamounts on young seafloor, as it is a highly transient phenomenon that occurs in all our models soon after initiation. In a companion paper, we investigate the implications of interaction of EDC with mantle plume activity (Manjón-Cabeza Córdoba and Ballmer, 2021).

Description: Rock salt has remarkable mechanical properties and high economic importance; however, the strength of salt compared to other rocks makes it a rather vulnerable material. Human activities could lead to acceleration of the dissolution of soluble rock salt and collapse of subsurface caverns. Although sinkhole development can be considered a local geological disaster regarding the characteristic size of surface depressions, the deformations can result in catastrophic events. In this study we report the spatiotemporal evolution of surface deformation in the Solotvyno salt mine area in Ukraine based on Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar measurements. Although the mining operations were finished in 2010, several sinkholes have been opened up since then. Our results show that despite the enormous risk management efforts, the sinkholes continue to expand with a maximum line-of-sight deformation rate of 5 cm/yr. The deformation time series show a rather linear feature, and unfortunately no slowdown of the processes can be recognized based on the investigated 4.5-year-long data set. We utilized both ascending and descending satellite passes to discriminate the horizontal and vertical deformations, and our results revealed that vertical deformation is much more pronounced in the area. Analytical source modeling confirmed that the complex deformation pattern observed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry has a direct connection to the former mining activity and is confined to the mining territory. With the 6 d repetition time of Sentinel-1 observations, the evolution of surface changes can be detected in quasi real time, which can facilitate disaster response and recovery.

Description: The continuum of behavior that emerges during fracture network development in crystalline rock may be categorized into three end-member modes: fracture nucleation, isolated fracture propagation, and fracture coalescence. These different modes of fracture growth produce fracture networks with distinctive geometric attributes, such as clustering and connectivity, that exert important controls on permeability and the extent of fluid–rock interactions. To track how these modes of fracture development vary in dominance throughout loading toward failure and thus how the geometric attributes of fracture networks may vary under these conditions, we perform in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on low-porosity crystalline rock (monzonite) under upper-crustal stress conditions. To examine the influence of pore fluid on the varying dominance of the three modes of growth, we perform two experiments under nominally dry conditions and one under water-saturated conditions with 5 MPa of pore fluid pressure. We impose a confining pressure of 20–35 MPa and then increase the differential stress in steps until the rock fails macroscopically. After each stress step of 1–5 MPa we acquire a three-dimensional (3D) X-ray adsorption coefficient field from which we extract the 3D fracture network. We develop a novel method of tracking individual fractures between subsequent tomographic scans that identifies whether fractures grow from the coalescence and linkage of several fractures or from the propagation of a single fracture. Throughout loading in all of the experiments, the volume of preexisting fractures is larger than that of nucleating fractures, indicating that the growth of preexisting fractures dominates the nucleation of new fractures. Throughout loading until close to macroscopic failure in all of the experiments, the volume of coalescing fractures is smaller than the volume of propagating fractures, indicating that fracture propagation dominates coalescence. Immediately preceding failure, however, the volume of coalescing fractures is at least double the volume of propagating fractures in the experiments performed at nominally dry conditions. In the water-saturated sample, in contrast, although the volume of coalescing fractures increases during the stage preceding failure, the volume of propagating fractures remains dominant. The influence of stress corrosion cracking associated with hydration reactions at fracture tips and/or dilatant hardening may explain the observed difference in fracture development under dry and water-saturated conditions.

Description: In this study we present a unique 10 year climatology of severe convective storm tracks for a large European area covering Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg. For the period 2005–2014, a high-resolution hail potential composite of 1×1 km2 is produced from two-dimensional radar reflectivity and lightning data. Individual hailstorm tracks as well as their physical properties, such as radar reflectivity along the tracks, were reconstructed for the entire time period using the Convective Cell Tracking Algorithm (CCTA2D). A sea-to-continent gradient in the number of hail days per year is found to be present over the whole domain. In addition, the highest number of severe storms is found on the leeward side of low mountain ranges such as the Massif Central in France and the Swabian Jura in southwest Germany. A latitude shift in the hail peak month is observed between the northern part of Germany, where hail occurs most frequently in August, and southern France, where the maximum amount of hail is 2 months earlier. The longest footprints with high reflectivity values occurred on 9 June 2014 and on 28 July 2013 with lengths reaching up to 500 km. Both events were associated with hailstones measuring up to 10 cm diameter, which caused damage in excess of EUR 2 billion.

Description: Volcanoes represent one of the most critical geological settings for hazard modelling due to their propensity to both unpredictably erupt and collapse, even in times of quiescence. Volcanoes are heterogeneous at multiple scales, from porosity, which is variably distributed and frequently anisotropic, to strata, which are laterally discontinuous and commonly pierced by fractures and faults. Due to variable and, at times, intense stress and strain conditions during and following emplacement, volcanic rocks span an exceptionally wide range of physical and mechanical properties. Understanding the constituent materials' attributes is key to improving the interpretation of the hazards posed by the diverse array of volcanic complexes. Here, we examine the spectrum of physical and mechanical properties presented by a single dome-forming eruption at a dacitic volcano, Mount Unzen (Japan), by testing a number of isotropic and anisotropic lavas in tension and compression with acoustic emission (AE) monitoring. The lava dome erupted as a series of 13 lobes between 1991 and 1995, and its ongoing instability means that much of the volcano and its surroundings remain within an exclusion zone today. During a field campaign in 2015, we selected four representative blocks as the focus of this study. The core samples from each block span a range in total porosity from 9.14 % to 42.81 % and a range in permeability from 1.65×10-15 to 1.88×10-9 m2 (from 1065 measurements). For a given porosity, sample permeability varies by 〉2 orders of magnitude and is typically lower for macroscopically anisotropic samples than for isotropic samples of similar porosity. An additional 379 permeability measurements on planar surfaces of both an isotropic and anisotropic sample block showed consistent minimum, maximum, and average permeabilities, and comparable standard deviations to measurements on core and disc samples; this indicated a negligible impact of sample size on recorded permeability across the range of sample sizes and absolute permeabilities tested. Permeability measured under confined conditions showed that the lowest permeability samples, whose porosity largely comprises microfractures, are most sensitive to effective pressure and that anisotropy of permeability is enhanced by confinement. The permeability measurements highlight the importance of the measurement approach, scale, and confinement conditions in the description of permeability. The uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) ranges from 13.48 to 47.80 MPa, and tensile strength (UTS) using the Brazilian disc method ranges from 1.30 to 3.70 MPa, with crack-dominated lavas being weaker than vesicle-dominated materials of equivalent porosity. UCS is lower in saturated conditions, whereas the impact of saturation on UTS is variable. UCS is between 6.8 and 17.3 times higher than UTS, with anisotropic samples forming each endmember. The Young's modulus of dry samples ranges from 4.49 to 21.59 GPa and is systematically reduced in water-saturated tests. The interrelation of porosity, UCS, UTS, and Young's modulus was modelled with good replication of the data, and empirical relationships are provided. Acceleration of monitored acoustic emission (AE) rates during deformation was assessed by fitting Poisson point process models in a Bayesian framework. An exponential acceleration model closely replicated the tensile strength tests, whilst compressive tests tended to have relatively high early rates of AEs, suggesting failure forecast may be more accurate in tensile regimes, though with shorter warning times. The Gutenberg–Richter b value has a negative correlation with connected porosity for both UCS and UTS tests which we attribute to different stress intensities caused by differing pore networks. The b value is higher for UTS than UCS, and it typically decreases (positive Δb) during tests, with the exception of cataclastic samples in compression. Δb correlates positively with connected porosity in compression and correlates negatively in tension. Δb using a fixed sampling length may be a more useful metric for monitoring changes in activity at volcanoes than the b value with an arbitrary starting point. Using coda wave interferometry (CWI), we identify velocity reductions during mechanical testing in compression and tension, the magnitude of which is greater in more porous samples in UTS but independent of porosity in UCS and which scales to both b value and Δb. Yet, saturation obscures velocity changes caused by evolving material properties, which could mask damage accrual or source migration in water-rich seismogenic environments such as volcanoes. The results of this study highlight that heterogeneity and anisotropy within a single system not only add variability but also have a defining role in the channelling of fluid flow and localisation of strain that dictate a volcano's hazards and the geophysical indicators we use to interpret them.

Description: Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

Description: During the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, the city of Barcelona was covered by a dense seismic network consisting of up to 19 seismic sensors. This network has provided an excellent tool to investigate in detail the background seismic-noise variations associated with the lockdown measures. Permanent stations facilitate comparing the seismic noise recorded during the lockdown quieting with long-term variations due to holiday periods. On the other hand, the data acquired by the dense network show the differences between sites located near industrial areas, transportation hubs or residential areas. The results confirm that the quieting of human activity during lockdown has resulted in a reduction in seismic vibrations in the 2–20 Hz band that is clearly higher than during holiday seasons. This effect is observed throughout the city, but only those stations not affected by very proximal sources of vibration (construction sites, industries) are clearly correlated with the level of activity denoted by other indicators. Our contribution demonstrates that seismic amplitude variations can be used as a proxy for human activity in urban environments, providing details similar to those offered by other mobility indicators.

Description: To study high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs) is of crucial importance due to their extraordinary destructive potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust hazard assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with non-realised TC events in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. This event set contains more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set are consistent with the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ∼100 and ∼77 times more very severe typhoons and violent typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return-period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.

Description: Flood risk modelling aims to quantify the probability of flooding and the resulting consequences for exposed elements. The assessment of flood damage is a core task that requires the description of complex flood damage processes including the influences of flooding intensity and vulnerability characteristics. Multi-variable modelling approaches are better suited for this purpose than simple stage–damage functions. However, multi-variable flood vulnerability models require detailed input data and often have problems in predicting damage for regions other than those for which they have been developed. A transfer of vulnerability models usually results in a drop of model predictive performance. Here we investigate the questions as to whether data from the open-data source OpenStreetMap is suitable to model flood vulnerability of residential buildings and whether the underlying standardized data model is helpful for transferring models across regions. We develop a new data set by calculating numerical spatial measures for residential-building footprints and combining these variables with an empirical data set of observed flood damage. From this data set random forest regression models are learned using regional subsets and are tested for predicting flood damage in other regions. This regional split-sample validation approach reveals that the predictive performance of models based on OpenStreetMap building geometry data is comparable to alternative multi-variable models, which use comprehensive and detailed information about preparedness, socio-economic status and other aspects of residential-building vulnerability. The transfer of these models for application in other regions should include a test of model performance using independent local flood data. Including numerical spatial measures based on OpenStreetMap building footprints reduces model prediction errors (MAE – mean absolute error – by 20 % and MSE – mean squared error – by 25 %) and increases the reliability of model predictions by a factor of 1.4 in terms of the hit rate when compared to a model that uses only water depth as a predictor. This applies also when the models are transferred to other regions which have not been used for model learning. Further, our results show that using numerical spatial measures derived from OpenStreetMap building footprints does not resolve all problems of model transfer. Still, we conclude that these variables are useful proxies for flood vulnerability modelling because these data are consistent (i.e. input variables and underlying data model have the same definition, format, units, etc.) and openly accessible and thus make it easier and more cost-effective to transfer vulnerability models to other regions.

Description: The twofold aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the current state of resilience research with regard to climate change in the social sciences and propose a research agenda. Resilience research among social scientists is characterized by much more diversity today than a few decades ago. Different definitions and understandings of resilience appear in publications during the last 10 years. Resilience research increasingly bears the mark of social constructivism, a relative newcomer compared to the more long-standing tradition of naturalism. There are also approaches that are indebted to both “naturalism” and “constructivism”, which, of course, come in many varieties. Based on our overview of recent scholarship, which is far from being exhaustive, we have identified six research avenues that arguably deserve continued attention. They combine naturalist and constructivist insights and approaches so that human agency, reflexivity, and considerations of justice and equity are incorporated into systems thinking research or supplement such research. Ultimately, we believe that the overarching challenge for future research is to ensure that resilience to climate change does not compromise sustainability and considerations of justice (including environmental, climate, and energy justice).

Description: Over the past decade, Brazil has experienced severe droughts across its territory, with important implications for soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture variability has a direct impact on agriculture, water security and ecosystem services. Nevertheless, there is currently little information on how soil moisture across different biomes responds to drought. In this study, we used satellite soil moisture data from the European Space Agency, from 2009 to 2015, to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil: Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pampa and Pantanal. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 % yr−1 (p

Description: Hydrological extremes affect societies and ecosystems around the world in many ways, stressing the need to make reliable predictions using hydrological models. However, several different hydrological models can be selected to simulate extreme events. A difference in hydrological model structure results in a spread in the simulation of extreme runoff events. We investigated the impact of different model structures on the magnitude and timing of simulated extreme high- and low-flow events by combining two state-of-the-art approaches: a modular modelling framework (FUSE) and large ensemble meteorological simulations. This combination of methods created the opportunity to isolate the impact of specific hydrological process formulations at long return periods without relying on statistical models. We showed that the impact of hydrological model structure was larger for the simulation of low-flow compared to high-flow events and varied between the four evaluated climate zones. In cold and temperate climate zones, the magnitude and timing of extreme runoff events were significantly affected by different parameter sets and hydrological process formulations, such as evaporation. In the arid and tropical climate zones, the impact of hydrological model structures on extreme runoff events was smaller. This novel combination of approaches provided insights into the importance of specific hydrological process formulations in different climate zones, which can support adequate model selection for the simulation of extreme runoff events.

Description: Credible models of landslide runout are a critical component of hazard and risk analysis in the mountainous regions worldwide. Hazard analysis benefits enormously from the number of available landslide runout models that can recreate events and provide key insights into the nature of landsliding phenomena. Regional models that are easily employed, however, remain a rarity. For debris flows and debris avalanches, where the impacts may occur some distance from the source, there remains a need for a practical, predictive model that can be applied at the regional scale. We present, herein, an agent-based simulation for debris flows and debris avalanches called DebrisFlow Predictor. A fully predictive model, DebrisFlow Predictor employs autonomous subroutines, or agents, that act on an underlying digital elevation model (DEM) using a set of probabilistic rules for scour, deposition, path selection, and spreading behavior. Relying on observations of aggregate debris flow behavior, DebrisFlow Predictor predicts landslide runout, area, volume, and depth along the landslide path. The results can be analyzed within the program or exported in a variety of useful formats for further analysis. A key feature of DebrisFlow Predictor is that it requires minimal input data, relying primarily on a 5 m DEM and user-defined initiation zones, and yet appears to produce realistic results. We demonstrate the applicability of DebrisFlow Predictor using two very different case studies from distinct geologic, geomorphic, and climatic settings. The first case study considers sediment production from the steep slopes of Papua, the island province of Indonesia; the second considers landslide runout as it affects a community on Vancouver Island off the west coast of Canada. We show how DebrisFlow Predictor works, how it performs compared to real world examples, what kinds of problems it can solve, and how the outputs compare to historical studies. Finally, we discuss its limitations and its intended use as a predictive regional landslide runout tool. DebrisFlow Predictor is freely available for non-commercial use.

Description: Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large agricultural losses. However, the drought effect on agriculture varies largely on a local scale due to diverse factors such as climatological and hydrological conditions, sensitivity of crop yield to water stress, and crop phenological stage among others. To improve the knowledge of drought impact on agriculture, this study aims to classify drought severity using vegetation and land surface temperature data, analyse the relationship between drought and climate anomalies, and examine the spatio-temporal variability of drought using vegetation and climate data. Empirical data for drought assessment purposes in this area are scarce and spatially unevenly distributed. Due to these limitations we used vegetation, land surface temperature (LST), precipitation derived from satellite imagery, and gridded air temperature data products. Initially, we tested the performance of satellite precipitation and gridded air temperature data on a local level. Then, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST were used to classify drought events associated with past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. It was found that the most severe drought events generally occur during a positive ENSO phase (El Niño years). In addition, we found that a decrease in vegetation is mainly driven by low precipitation and high temperature, and we identified areas where agricultural losses will be most pronounced under such conditions. The results show that droughts can be monitored using satellite imagery data when ground data are scarce or of poor data quality. The results can be especially beneficial for emergency response operations and for enabling a proactive approach to disaster risk management against droughts.

Description: This paper presents a detailed description and evaluation of a multi-methodological petrophysical approach for the comprehensive multi-scale characterization of reservoir sandstones. The suggested methodology enables the identification of links between Darcy-scale permeability and an extensive set of geometrical, textural and topological rock descriptors quantified at the pore scale. This approach is applied to the study of samples from three consecutive sandstone layers of Lower Cretaceous age in northern Israel. These layers differ in features observed at the outcrop, hand specimen, petrographic microscope and micro-CT scales. Specifically, laboratory porosity and permeability measurements of several centimetre-sized samples show low variability in the quartz arenite (top and bottom) layers but high variability in the quartz wacke (middle) layer. The magnitudes of this variability are also confirmed by representative volume sizes and by anisotropy evaluations conducted on micro-CT-imaged 3-D pore geometries. Two scales of directional porosity variability are revealed in quartz arenite sandstone of the top layer: the pore size scale of ∼0.1 mm in all directions and ∼3.5 mm scale related to the occurrence of high- and low-porosity horizontal bands occluded by Fe oxide cementation. This millimetre-scale variability controls the laboratory-measured macroscopic rock permeability. More heterogeneous pore structures were revealed in the quartz wacke sandstone of the intermediate layer, which shows high inverse correlation between porosity and clay matrix in the vertical direction attributed to depositional processes and comprises an internal spatial irregularity. Quartz arenite sandstone of the bottom layer is homogenous and isotropic in the investigated domain, revealing porosity variability at a ∼0.1 mm scale, which is associated with the average pore size. Good agreement between the permeability upscaled from the pore-scale modelling and the estimates based on laboratory measurements is shown for the quartz arenite layers. The proposed multi-methodological approach leads to an accurate petrophysical characterization of reservoir sandstones with broad ranges of textural, topological and mineralogical characteristics and is particularly applicable for describing anisotropy and heterogeneity of sandstones on various rock scales. The results of this study also contribute to the geological interpretation of the studied stratigraphic units.

Description: River floods pose a significant threat to road transport infrastructure in Europe. This study presents a high-resolution object-based continental-scale assessment of direct flood risk of the European road network for the present climate, using high-resolution exposure data from OpenStreetMap. A new set of road-specific damage functions is developed. The expected annual direct damage from large river floods to road infrastructure in Europe is EUR 230 million per year. Compared to grid-based approaches, the object-based approach is more precise and provides more action perspective for road owners because it calculates damage directly for individual road segments while accounting for segment-specific attributes. This enables the identification of European hotspots, such as roads in the Alps and along the Sava River. A first comparison to a reference case shows that the new object-based method computes realistic damage estimates, paving the way for targeted risk reduction strategies.

Description: The city of Auckland, New Zealand (Tāmaki Makaurau, Aotearoa), sits on top of an active volcanic field. Seismic stations in and around the city monitor activity of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) and provide data to image its subsurface. The seismic sensors – some positioned at the surface and others in boreholes – are generally noisier during the day than during nighttime. For most stations, weekdays are noisier than weekends, proving human activity contributes to recordings of seismic noise, even on seismographs as deep as 384 m below the surface and as far as 15 km from Auckland's Central Business District. Lockdown measures in New Zealand to battle the spread of COVID-19 allow us to separate sources of seismic energy and evaluate both the quality of the monitoring network and the level of local seismicity. A matched-filtering scheme based on template matching with known earthquakes improved the existing catalogue of five known local earthquakes to 35 for the period between 1 November 2019 and 15 June 2020. However, the Level-4 lockdown from 25 March to 27 April – with its drop in anthropogenic seismic noise above 1 Hz – did not mark an enhanced detection level. Nevertheless, it may be that wind and ocean swell mask the presence of weak local seismicity, particularly near surface-mounted seismographs in the Hauraki Gulf that show much higher levels of noise than the rest of the local network.

Description: The influence of strain distribution inheritance within fault systems on repeated fault reactivation is far less understood than the process of repeated fault reactivation itself. By evaluating cross sections through a new 3D geological model, we demonstrate contrasts in strain distribution between different fault segments of the same fault system during its reverse reactivation and subsequent normal reactivation. The study object is the Roer Valley graben (RVG), a middle Mesozoic rift basin in western Europe that is bounded by large border fault systems. These border fault systems were reversely reactivated under Late Cretaceous compression (inversion) and reactivated as normal faults under Cenozoic extension. A careful evaluation of the new geological model of the western RVG border fault system – the Feldbiss fault system (FFS) – reveals the presence of two structural domains in the FFS with distinctly different strain distributions during both Late Cretaceous compression and Cenozoic extension. A southern domain is characterized by narrow (10 km) distributed faulting. The total normal and reverse throws in the two domains of the FFS were estimated to be similar during both tectonic phases. This shows that each domain accommodated a similar amount of compressional and extensional deformation but persistently distributed it differently. The faults in both structural domains of the FFS strike NW–SE, but the change in geometry between them takes place across the oblique WNW–ESE striking Grote Brogel fault. Also in other parts of the Roer Valley graben, WNW–ESE-striking faults are associated with major geometrical changes (left-stepping patterns) in its border fault system. At the contact between both structural domains, a major NNE–SSW-striking latest Carboniferous strike-slip fault is present, referred to as the Gruitrode Lineament. Across another latest Carboniferous strike-slip fault zone (Donderslag Lineament) nearby, changes in the geometry of Mesozoic fault populations were also noted. These observations demonstrate that Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic inherited changes in fault geometries as well as strain distributions were likely caused by the presence of pre-existing lineaments in the basement.

Description: Assessing landslide activity at large scales has historically been a challenging problem. Here, we present a different approach on radar coherence and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) analyses – metrics that are typically used to map landslides post-failure – and leverage a time series analysis to characterize the pre-failure activity of the Mud Creek landslide in California. Our method computes the ratio of mean interferometric coherence or NDVI on the unstable slope relative to that of the surrounding hillslope. This approach has the advantage that it eliminates the negative impacts of long temporal baselines that can interfere with the analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture (InSAR) data, as well as interferences from atmospheric and environmental factors. We show that the coherence ratio of the Mud Creek landslide dropped by 50 % when the slide began to accelerate 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure in 2017. Coincidentally, the NDVI ratio began a near-linear decline. A similar behavior is visible during an earlier acceleration of the landslide in 2016. This suggests that radar coherence and NDVI ratios may be useful for assessing landslide activity. Our study demonstrates that data from the ascending track provide the more reliable coherence ratios, despite being poorly suited to measure the slope's precursory deformation. Combined, these insights suggest that this type of analysis may complement traditional InSAR analysis in useful ways and provide an opportunity to assess landslide activity at regional scales.

Description: Strong winds induced by extratropical storms cause a large number of power outages, especially in highly forested countries such as Finland. Thus, predicting the impact of the storms is one of the key challenges for power grid operators. This article introduces a novel method to predict the storm severity for the power grid employing ERA5 reanalysis data combined with forest inventory. We start by identifying storm objects from wind gust and pressure fields by using contour lines of 15 m s−1 and 1000 hPa, respectively. The storm objects are then tracked and characterized with features derived from surface weather parameters and forest vegetation information. Finally, objects are classified with a supervised machine-learning method based on how much damage to the power grid they are expected to cause. Random forest classifiers, support vector classifiers, naïve Bayes processes, Gaussian processes, and multilayer perceptrons were evaluated for the classification task, with support vector classifiers providing the best results.

Description: In the complex medium system of the sea area, the overlying seawater and the surface soft soil have a significant impact on the seafloor ground motion, which brings great seismic risk to the safety of offshore-engineering structures. In this paper, four sets of typical free-field models are constructed and established, comprising a land model, land model with surface soft soil, sea model and sea model with surface soft soil. The dynamic finite-difference method is used to carry out two-dimensional seismic response analysis of a typical free field based on the input forms of P and SV waves. By comparing the seismic response analysis results of four groups of calculation models, the effects of overlying seawater and soft soil on the peak acceleration and acceleration response spectrum are studied. The results show that when an SV wave is input, the peak acceleration and response spectrum of the surface of soft soil on the surface and the seabed surface can be amplified, while the overlying seawater can significantly reduce the ground motion. When the P wave is used, the effect of overlying seawater and soft soil on the peak acceleration and response spectrum of the surface and seabed can be ignored. The peak acceleration decreases first and then increases from the bottom to the surface, and the difference of peak acceleration calculated by four free-field models is not obvious. The results show that the overlying seawater and the surface soft soil layer have little effect on the peak acceleration of ground motion below the surface.

Description: Quartz has been replaced by magnesium silicate hydrate cement at the Feragen ultramafic body in south-east Norway. This occurs in deformed and recrystallized quartz grains deposited as glacial till covering part of the ultramafic body. Where the ultramafic body is exposed, weathering leads to high-pH (∼ 10), Mg-rich fluids. The dissolution rate of the quartz is about 3 orders of magnitude higher than experimentally derived rate equations suggest under the prevailing conditions. Quartz dissolution and cement precipitation start at intergranular grain boundaries that act as fluid pathways through the recrystallized quartz. Etch pits are also extensively present at the quartz surfaces as a result of preferential dissolution at dislocation sites. Transmission electron microscopy revealed an amorphous silica layer with a thickness of 100–200 nm around weathered quartz grains. We suggest that the amorphous silica is a product of interface-coupled dissolution–precipitation and that the amorphous silica subsequently reacts with the Mg-rich, high-pH bulk fluid to precipitate magnesium silicate hydrate cement, allowing for further quartz dissolution and locally a complete replacement of quartz by cement. The cement is the natural equivalent of magnesium silicate hydrate cement (M-S-H), which is currently of interest for nuclear waste encapsulation and for environmentally friendly building cement, but it has not yet been developed for commercial use. This study provides new insights that could potentially contribute to the further development of M-S-H cement.

Description: China is one of the most flood-prone countries, and development within floodplains is intensive. However, flood protection levels (FPLs) across the country are mostly unknown, hampering the present assertive efforts on flood risk management. Based on the flood-protection prescriptions contained in the national flood policies, this paper develops a dataset of likely FPLs for China and investigates the protection granted to different demographic groups. The new dataset corresponds to local flood protection designs in 91 (53.2 %) of the 171 validation counties, and in 154 counties (90.1 %) it is very close to the designed FPLs. This suggests that the policy-based FPLs could be a valuable proxy for designed FPLs in China. The FPLs are significantly higher than previously estimated in the FLOPROS (FLOod PROtection Standards) global dataset, suggesting that Chinese flood risk was probably overestimated. Relatively high FPLs (return period of ≥50 years) are seen in 282 or only 12.6 % of the evaluated 2237 counties, which host a majority (55.1 %) of the total exposed population. However, counties with low FPLs (return period of

Description: Deep persistent slab avalanches are capable of destroying infrastructure and are usually unsurvivable for those who are caught. Formation of a snowpack conducive to deep persistent slab avalanches is typically driven by meteorological conditions occurring in the beginning weeks to months of the winter season, and yet the avalanche event may not occur for several weeks to months later. While predicting the exact timing of the release of deep persistent slab avalanches is difficult, onset of avalanche activity is commonly preceded by rapid warming, heavy precipitation, or high winds. This work investigates the synoptic drivers of deep persistent slab avalanches at three sites in the western USA with long records: Bridger Bowl, Montana; Jackson, Wyoming; and Mammoth Mountain, California. We use self-organizing maps to generate 20 synoptic types that summarize 5899 daily 500 mbar geopotential height maps for the winters (November–March) of 1979/80–2017/18. For each of the three locations, we identify major and minor deep persistent slab avalanche seasons and analyze the number of days represented by each synoptic type during the beginning (November–January) of the major and minor seasons. We also examine the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during the 72 h preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity for both dry and wet slab events. Each of the three sites exhibits a unique distribution of the number of days assigned to each synoptic type during November–January of major and minor seasons and for the 72 h period preceding deep persistent slab avalanche activity. This work identifies the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns contributing to deep persistent slab instabilities and the patterns that commonly precede deep persistent slab avalanche activity. By identifying these patterns, we provide an improved understanding of deep persistent slab avalanches and an additional tool to anticipate the timing of these difficult-to-predict events.

Description: In experiments designed to understand deep shear zones, we show that periodic porous sheets emerge spontaneously during viscous creep and that they facilitate mass transfer. These findings challenge conventional expectations of how viscosity in solid rocks operates and provide quantitative data in favour of an alternative paradigm, that of the dynamic granular fluid pump model. On this basis, we argue that our results warrant a reappraisal of the community's perception of how viscous deformation in rocks proceeds with time and suggest that the general model for deep shear zones should be updated to include creep cavitation. Through our discussion we highlight how the integration of creep cavitation, and its Generalised Thermodynamic paradigm, would be consequential for a range of important solid Earth topics that involve viscosity in Earth materials like, for example, slow earthquakes.

Description: We collected drone data to quantify the kinematics at extensional fractures and normal faults, integrated this information with seismological data to reconstruct the stress field, and critically compared the results with previous fieldwork to assess the best practice. As a key site, we analyzed a sector of the northeast rift of Mt Etna, an area affected by continuous ground deformation linked to gravity sliding of the volcano's eastern flank and dike injections. The studied sector is characterized also by the existence of eruptive craters and fissures and lava flows. This work shows that this rift segment is affected by a series of NNE- to NE-striking, parallel extensional fractures characterized by an opening mode along an average N105.7∘ vector. The stress field is characterized by a σHmin trending northwest–southeast. Normal faults strike parallel to the extensional fractures. The extensional strain obtained by cumulating the net offset at extensional fractures with the fault heave gives a stretching ratio of 1.003 in the northeastern part of the study area and 1.005 in the southwestern part. Given a maximum age of 1614 CE for the offset lavas, we obtained an extension rate of 1.9 cm yr−1 for the last 406 years. This value is consistent with the slip along the Pernicana Fault system, confirming that the NE rift structures accommodate the sliding of the eastern flank of the volcano.

Description: The generation of a tsunami by a landslide is a complex phenomenon that involves landslide dynamics, wave dynamics and their interaction. Numerous lives and infrastructures around the world are threatened by this phenomenon. Predictive numerical models are a suitable tool to assess this natural hazard. However, the complexity of this phenomenon causes such models to be either computationally inefficient or unable to handle the overall process. Our model, which is based on shallow-water equations, has been developed to address these two problems. In our model, the two materials are treated as two different layers, and their interaction is resolved by momentum transfer inspired by elastic collision principles. The goal of this study is to demonstrate the validity of our model through benchmark tests based on physical experiments performed by Miller et al. (2017). A dry case is reproduced to validate the behaviour of the landslide propagation model using different rheological laws and to determine which law performs best. In addition, a wet case is reproduced to investigate the influence of different still-water levels on both the landslide deposit and the generated waves. The numerical results are in good agreement with the physical experiments, thereby confirming the validity of our model, particularly concerning the novel momentum transfer approach.

Description: Verification of forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather is needed by the meteorological centres, but how to perform it still presents many open questions, starting from which data are suitable as reference. This paper reviews new observations which can be considered for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. Two high-impact weather phenomena are considered: thunderstorm and fog. First, a framework for the verification of high-impact weather is proposed, including the definition of forecast and observations in this context and creation of a verification set. Then, new observations showing a potential for the detection and quantification of high-impact weather are reviewed, including remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and claim/damage reports from insurance companies. The observation characteristics which are relevant for their usage in forecast verification are also discussed. Examples of forecast evaluation and verification are then presented, highlighting the methods which can be adopted to address the issues posed by the usage of these non-conventional observations and objectively quantify the skill of a high-impact weather forecast.

Description: Analysis and prediction of water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea are difficult tasks because of the contribution of various drivers to the water level, the presence of outliers in time series, and possibly non-stationarity of the extremes. Non-stationary modeling of extremes was performed to the block maxima of water level derived from the time series at six locations in the Gulf of Riga and one location in the Baltic proper, Baltic Sea, during 1961–2018. Several parameters of the generalized-extreme-value (GEV) distribution of the measured water level maxima both in the Baltic proper and in the interior of the Gulf of Riga exhibit statistically significant changes over these years. The most considerable changes occur to the shape parameter ξ. All stations in the interior of the Gulf of Riga experienced a regime shift: a drastic abrupt drop in the shape parameter from ξ≈0.03±0.02 to ξ≈-0.36±0.04 around 1986 followed by an increase of a similar magnitude around 1990. This means a sudden switch from a Fréchet distribution to a three-parameter Weibull distribution and back. The period of an abrupt shift (1986–1990) in the shape parameters of GEV distribution in the interior of the Gulf of Riga coincides with the significant weakening of correlation between the water level extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The water level extremes at Kolka at the entrance to the Gulf of Riga reveal a significant linear trend in shape parameter following the ξ≈-0.44+0.01(t-1961) relation. There is evidence of a different course of the water level extremes in the Baltic proper and the interior of the Gulf of Riga. The described changes may lead to greatly different projections for long-term behavior of water level extremes and their return periods based on data from different intervals. Highlights. Water level extremes in the eastern Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Riga are analyzed for 1961–2018. Significant changes in parameters of generalized-extreme-value distribution are identified. Significant linear trend in shape parameter is established at Kolka. The shape parameter changes in a step-like manner. The shape parameter of GEV has regime shifts around 1986 and 1990 in the gulf.

Description: We demonstrate the capability of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) to record volcano-related dynamic strain at Etna (Italy). In summer 2019, we gathered DAS measurements from a 1.5 km long fibre in a shallow trench and seismic records from a conventional dense array comprised of 26 broadband sensors that was deployed in Piano delle Concazze close to the summit area. Etna activity during the acquisition period gives the extraordinary opportunity to record dynamic strain changes (∼ 10−8 strain) in correspondence with volcanic events. To validate the DAS strain measurements, we explore array-derived methods to estimate strain changes from the seismic signals and to compare with strain DAS signals. A general good agreement is found between array-derived strain and DAS measurements along the fibre optic cable. Short wavelength discrepancies correspond with fault zones, showing the potential of DAS for mapping local perturbations of the strain field and thus site effect due to small-scale heterogeneities in volcanic settings.

Description: The small island of Groix in southern Brittany, France, is well known for exceptionally well-preserved outcrops of Variscan blueschists, eclogites, and garnetiferous mica schists that mark a Late Devonian suture between Gondwana and Armorica. The kinematics of polyphase deformation in these rocks is reconstructed based on 3D microstructural analysis of inclusion trails within garnet and pseudomorphed lawsonite porphyroblasts using differently oriented thin sections and X-ray tomography. Three sets of inclusion trails striking NE–SW, NNW–SSE, and WNW–ESE are recognized and interpreted to witness a succession of different crustal shortening directions orthogonal to these strikes. The curvature sense of sigmoidal and spiral-shaped inclusion trails of the youngest set is shown to be consistent with northwest and northward subduction of Gondwana under Armorica, provided that these microstructures developed by overgrowth of actively forming crenulations without much porphyroblast rotation. Strongly non-cylindrical folds locally found on the island are reinterpreted as fold-interference structures instead of having formed by progressive shearing and fold-axis reorientation. Six samples of a lower-grade footwall unit of the Groix ophiolitic nappe (Pouldu schists) were also studied. Inclusion trails in these rocks strike E–W, similar to the youngest set recognized on Groix island. They record Carboniferous N–S shortening during continental collision. These new microstructural data from southern Brittany bear a strong resemblance to earlier measured in inclusion-trail orientations in the northwestern Iberia Massif. A best fit between both regions suggests not more than about 15∘ anticlockwise rotation of Iberia during the Cretaceous opening of the Gulf of Biscay.

Description: The southern Alpine regions were affected by several magmatic and volcanic events between the Paleozoic and the Tertiary. This activity undoubtedly had an important effect on the density distribution and structural setting at lithosphere scale. Here the gravity field has been used to create a 3D lithosphere density model on the basis of a high-resolution seismic tomography model. The results of the gravity modeling demonstrate a highly complex density distribution in good agreement with the different geological domains of the Alpine area represented by the European Plate, the Adriatic Plate and the Tyrrhenian basin. The Adriatic-derived terrains (Southalpine and Austroalpine) of the Alps are typically denser (2850 kg m−3), whilst the Alpine zone, composed of terrains of European provenance (Helvetic and Tauern Window), presents lower density values (2750 kg m−3). Inside the Southalpine, south of the Dolomites, a well-known positive gravity anomaly is present, and one of the aims of this work was to investigate the source of this anomaly that has not yet been explained. The modeled density suggests that the anomaly is related to two different sources; the first involves the middle crust below the gravity anomaly and is represented by localized mushroom-shaped bodies interpreted as magmatic intrusions, while a second wider density anomaly affects the lower crust of the southern Alpine realm and could correspond to a mafic and ultramafic magmatic underplating (gabbros and related cumulates) developed during Paleozoic extension.

Description: Understanding the oceanic response to tropical cyclones (TCs) is of importance for studies on climate change. Although the oceanic effects induced by individual TCs have been extensively investigated, studies on the oceanic response to the passage of consecutive TCs are rare. In this work, we assess the upper-oceanic response to the passage of Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto over the western Sargasso Sea in 2019 using satellite remote sensing and modelled data. We found that the combined effects of these slow-moving TCs led to an increased oceanic response during the third and fourth post-storm weeks of Dorian (accounting for both Dorian and Humberto effects) because of the induced mixing and upwelling at this time. Overall, anomalies of sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and mean temperature from the sea surface to a depth of 100 m were 50 %, 63 %, and 57 % smaller (more negative) in the third–fourth post-storm weeks than in the first–second post-storm weeks of Dorian (accounting only for Dorian effects), respectively. For the biological response, we found that surface chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration anomalies, the mean chl a concentration in the euphotic zone, and the chl a concentration in the deep chlorophyll maximum were 16 %, 4 %, and 16 % higher in the third–fourth post-storm weeks than in the first–second post-storm weeks, respectively. The sea surface cooling and increased biological response induced by these TCs were significantly higher (Mann–Whitney test, p

Description: Pre-disaster planning and mitigation necessitate detailed spatial information about flood hazards and their associated risks. In the US, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) provides important information about areas subject to flooding during the 1 % riverine or coastal event. The binary nature of flood hazard maps obscures the distribution of property risk inside of the SFHA and the residual risk outside of the SFHA, which can undermine mitigation efforts. Machine learning techniques provide an alternative approach to estimating flood hazards across large spatial scales at low computational expense. This study presents a pilot study for the Texas Gulf Coast region using random forest classification to predict flood probability across a 30 523 km2 area. Using a record of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims dating back to 1976 and high-resolution geospatial data, we generate a continuous flood hazard map for 12 US Geological Survey (USGS) eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) watersheds. Results indicate that the random forest model predicts flooding with a high sensitivity (area under the curve, AUC: 0.895), especially compared to the existing FEMA regulatory floodplain. Our model identifies 649 000 structures with at least a 1 % annual chance of flooding, roughly 3 times more than are currently identified by FEMA as flood-prone.

Description: The design of coastal protection measures and the quantification of coastal risks at locations affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) are often based solely on the analysis of historical cyclone tracks. Due to data scarcity and the random nature of TCs, the assumption that a hypothetical TC could hit a neighboring area with equal likelihood to past events can potentially lead to over- and/or underestimations of extremes and associated risks. The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on (historical) data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed. The method has been implemented in the highly flexible open-source Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE uses an empirical track model based on Markov chains and can simulate thousands of synthetic TC tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any (historical) data source. Moreover, the tool can be used to determine the wind extremes, and the output can be used for the reliable assessment of coastal hazards. Validation results for the Gulf of Mexico show that TC patterns and extreme wind speeds are well reproduced by TCWiSE.

Description: Calcite and dolomite are the two most common minerals in carbonate-bearing faults and shear zones. Motivated by observations of exhumed seismogenic faults in the Italian Central Apennines, we used a rotary-shear apparatus to investigate the frictional and microstructural evolution of ca. 3 mm thick gouge layers consisting of 50 wt % calcite and 50 wt % dolomite. The gouges were sheared at a range of slip rates (30 µm s−1–1 m s−1), displacements (0.05–0.4 m), and a normal load of 17.5 MPa under both room-humidity and water-dampened conditions. The frictional behaviour and microstructural evolution of the gouges were strongly influenced by the presence of water. At room humidity, slip strengthening was observed up to slip rates of 0.01 m s−1, which was associated with gouge dilation and the development of a 500–900 µm wide slip zone cut by Y-, R-, and R1-shear bands. Above a slip rate of 0.1 m s−1, dynamic weakening accompanied the development of a localised 0.1 m s−1) and room humidity, supporting the notion that some foliated gouges and cataclasites may form during seismic slip in natural carbonate-bearing faults.

Description: Land subsidence caused by groundwater overpumping threatens the sustainable development in Beijing. Hazard assessments of land subsidence can provide early warning information to improve prevention measures. However, uncertainty and fuzziness are the major issues during hazard assessments of land subsidence. We propose a method that integrates fuzzy set theory and weighted Bayesian model (FWBM) to evaluate the hazard probability of land subsidence measured by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology. The model is structured as a directed acyclic graph. The hazard probability distribution of each factor triggering land subsidence is determined using Bayes' theorem. Fuzzification of the factor significance reduces the ambiguity of the relationship between the factors and subsidence. The probability of land subsidence hazard under multiple factors is then calculated with the FWBM. The subsidence time series obtained by InSAR is used to infer the updated posterior probability. The upper and middle parts of the Chaobai River alluvial fan are taken as a case-study site, which locates the first large-scale emergency groundwater resource region in the Beijing plain. The results show that rates of groundwater level decrease more than 1 m yr−1 in the confined and unconfined aquifers, with cumulative thicknesses of the compressible sediments between 160 and 170 m and Quaternary thicknesses between 400 and 500 m, yielding maximum hazard probabilities of 0.65, 0.68, 0.32, and 0.35, respectively. The overall hazard probability of land subsidence in the study area decreased from 51.3 % to 28.3 % between 2003 and 2017 due to lower rates of groundwater level decrease. This study provides useful insights for decision makers to select different approaches for land subsidence prevention.

Description: We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. The model derives statistical relations for TC behaviour (genesis rate and location, intensity, speed and direction of translation) from best-track datasets, then uses these relations to create a synthetic catalogue based on stochastic sampling, representing many thousands of years of activity. A parametric wind field, based on radial profiles and boundary layer models, is applied to each event in the catalogue that is then used to fit extreme-value distributions for evaluation of return period wind speeds. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments.

Description: Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards. In 2018, three flash-flood episodes resulted in 46 casualties in the deserts of Israel and Jordan alone. This paper presents the hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a substantial storm (25–27 April 2018) that hit an arid desert basin (Zin, ∼1400 km2, southern Israel) claiming 12 human lives. This paper aims to (a) spatially assess the severity of the storm, (b) quantify the timescale of the hydrological response, and (c) evaluate the available operational precipitation forecasting. Return periods of the storm's maximal rain intensities were derived locally at 1 km2 resolution using weather radar data and a novel statistical methodology. A high-resolution grid-based hydrological model was used to study the intra-basin flash-flood magnitudes which were consistent with direct information from witnesses. The model was further used to examine the hydrological response to different forecast scenarios. A small portion of the basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme precipitation intensities (75- to 100-year return period), resulting in a local hydrological response of a high magnitude (10- to 50-year return period). Hillslope runoff, initiated minutes after the intense rainfall occurred, reached the streams and resulted in peak discharge within tens of minutes. Available deterministic operational precipitation forecasts poorly predicted the hydrological response in the studied basins (tens to hundreds of square kilometers) mostly due to location inaccuracy. There was no gain from assimilating radar estimates in the numerical weather prediction model. Therefore, we suggest using deterministic forecasts with caution as it might lead to fatal decision making. To cope with such errors, a novel cost-effective methodology is applied by spatially shifting the forecasted precipitation fields. In this way, flash-flood occurrences were captured in most of the subbasins, resulting in few false alarms.

Description: During the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries put in place social interventions, restricting the mobility of citizens, to slow the spread of the epidemic. Italy, the first European country severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, applied a sequence of progressive restrictions to reduce human mobility from the end of February to mid-March 2020. Here, we analysed the seismic signatures of these lockdown measures in densely populated eastern Sicily, characterized by the presence of a permanent seismic network used for earthquake and volcanic monitoring. We emphasize how the anthropogenic seismic noise decrease is visible even at stations located in remote areas (Etna and Aeolian Islands) and that the amount of this reduction (reaching ∼ 50 %–60 %), its temporal pattern and spectral content are strongly station-dependent. Concerning the latter, we showed that on average the frequencies above 10 Hz are the most influenced by the anthropogenic seismic noise. We found similarities between the temporal patterns of anthropogenic seismic noise and human mobility, as quantified by the mobile-phone-derived data shared by Google, Facebook and Apple, as well as by ship traffic data. These results further confirm how seismic data, routinely acquired worldwide for seismic and volcanic surveillance, can be used to monitor human mobility too.

Description: The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damage due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for atmospheric forcing, sea-level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding of selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing the risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

Description: Five seismic interpretation experiments were conducted on an area of interest containing a fault relay in the Snøhvit field, Barents Sea, Norway, to understand how the interpretation method impacts the analysis of fault and horizon morphologies, fault lengths, and throw. The resulting horizon and fault interpretations from the least and most successful interpretation methods were further analysed to understand their impact on geological modelling and hydrocarbon volume calculation. Generally, the least dense manual interpretation method of horizons (32 inlines and 32 crosslines; 32 ILs × 32 XLs, 400 m) and faults (32 ILs, 400 m) resulted in inaccurate fault and horizon interpretations and underdeveloped relay morphologies and throw, which are inadequate for any detailed geological analysis. The densest fault interpretations (4 ILs, 50 m) and 3D auto-tracked horizons (all ILs and XLs spaced 12.5 m) provided the most detailed interpretations, most developed relay and fault morphologies, and geologically realistic throw distributions. Sparse interpretation grids generate significant issues in the model itself, which make it geologically inaccurate and lead to misunderstanding of the structural evolution of the relay. Despite significant differences between the two models, the calculated in-place petroleum reserves are broadly similar in the least and most dense experiments. However, when considered at field scale, the differences in volumes that are generated by the contrasting interpretation methodologies clearly demonstrate the importance of applying accurate interpretation strategies.

Description: Raman elastic thermobarometry has recently been applied in many petrological studies to recover the pressure and temperature (P–T) conditions of mineral inclusion entrapment. Existing modelling methods in petrology either adopt an assumption of a spherical, isotropic inclusion embedded in an isotropic, infinite host or use numerical techniques such as the finite-element method to simulate the residual stress and strain state preserved in the non-spherical anisotropic inclusions. Here, we use the Eshelby solution to develop an analytical framework for calculating the residual stress and strain state of an elastically anisotropic, ellipsoidal inclusion in an infinite, isotropic host. The analytical solution is applicable to any class of inclusion symmetry and an arbitrary inclusion aspect ratio. Explicit expressions are derived for some symmetry classes, including tetragonal, hexagonal, and trigonal. The effect of changing the aspect ratio on residual stress is investigated, including quartz, zircon, rutile, apatite, and diamond inclusions in garnet host. Quartz is demonstrated to be the least affected, while rutile is the most affected. For prolate quartz inclusion (c axis longer than a axis), the effect of varying the aspect ratio on Raman shift is demonstrated to be insignificant. When c/a=5, only ca. 0.3 cm−1 wavenumber variation is induced as compared to the spherical inclusion shape. For oblate quartz inclusions, the effect is more significant, when c/a=0.5, ca. 0.8 cm−1 wavenumber variation for the 464 cm−1 band is induced compared to the reference spherical inclusion case. We also show that it is possible to fit an effective ellipsoid to obtain a proxy for the averaged residual stress or strain within a faceted inclusion. The difference between the volumetrically averaged stress of a faceted inclusion and the analytically calculated stress from the best-fitted effective ellipsoid is calculated to obtain the root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) for quartz, zircon, rutile, apatite, and diamond inclusions in garnet host. Based on the results of 500 randomly generated (a wide range of aspect ratio and random crystallographic orientation) faceted inclusions, we show that the volumetrically averaged stress serves as an excellent stress measure and the associated RMSD is less than 2 %, except for diamond, which has a systematically higher RMSD (ca. 8 %). This expands the applicability of the analytical solution for any arbitrary inclusion shape in practical Raman measurements.

Description: The allochthonous complexes of Galicia–Trás-os-Montes Zone (NW Iberia) are part of a rootless tectonic stack which preserves part of a Variscan accretionary prism. They are formed by individual tectonic slices marked by specific tectonometamorphic evolutions, which were piled up in a piggy-back mode onto its relative autochthon, the Central Iberian Zone (CIZ). Allochthony decreases from the structurally upper thrust sheets towards the lower ones. The lowermost unit of the stack is known as the Parautochthon or Schistose Domain. It is characterized by a low metamorphic grade in contrast with higher temperatures and/or pressures estimated for the overlying allochthonous units and shares the stratigraphic sequence with the underlying autochthon. The Parautochthon is divided in two structural and stratigraphic sub-units: (i) the Lower Parautochthon (LPa) is made of synorogenic flysch-type sediments with varied turbiditic units and olistostrome bodies, showing Upper Devonian–lower Carboniferous age according to the youngest zircon populations and fossiliferous content; (ii) the Upper Parautochthon (UPa) is composed of highly deformed preorogenic upper Cambrian–Silurian volcano-sedimentary sequence comparable with the nearby autochthon and to some extent, also with the high-P and low-T Lower Allochthon laying structurally above. The UPa was emplaced onto the LPa along the Main-Trás-os-Montes Thrust, and the LPa became detached from the CIZ relative autochthon by a regional-scale structure, the Basal Lower Parautochthon Detachment, which follows a weak horizon of Silurian carbonaceous slates. A review on the detrital zircon studies on the synorogenic LPa complemented by zircon dating of 17 new samples is presented here. The results support the extension of the LPa underneath the NW Iberian allochthonous complexes, from Cabo Ortegal, to Bragança and Morais massifs. Its current exposure follows the lowermost tectonic boundary between the Galicia–Trás-os-Montes (allochthon) and Central Iberian (autochthon) zones. The youngest zircon age populations point to a maximum sedimentation age for the LPa formations ranging from Famennian to Serpukhovian and supports the piggy-back mode of emplacement of the Galicia–Trás-os-Montes Zone, of which it represents the latest imbricate. The zircon age populations in the LPa allow the sedimentary provenance areas to be constrained, showing the intervention of nearby sources (mostly the UPa) and/or multiply recycled and long-transport sediments with a typically north-central Gondwana age fingerprint, also found in the Lower Allochthon, UPa and Autochthon. Complementary geochronology of volcanic olistoliths trapped in the LPa sediments and of late Cambrian to Upper Ordovician rhyolites from the UPa is also presented. It shows a direct relationship between the major blocks source area (UPa) and the setting place (LPa). Old zircon age patterns show that the LPa sedimentary rocks were recycled from detrital rocks of the allochthon (advancing wedge) and the nearby autochthon (peripheral bulge).

Description: Many metallic mineral deposits have sufficient physical property contrasts, particularly density, to be detectable using seismic methods. These deposits are sometimes significant for our society and economic growth and can help to accelerate the energy transition towards decarbonization. However, their exploration at depth requires high-resolution and sensitive methods. Following a series of 2D seismic trials, a sparse, narrow source–receiver azimuth, 3D seismic survey was conducted in the Blötberget mine, in central Sweden, covering an area of approximately 6 km2 for deep-targeting iron oxide deposits and their host rock structures. The survey benefited from a collaborative work by putting together 1266 seismic recorders and a 32 t vibrator, generating 1056 shot points in a fixed geometry setup. Shots were fired at every 10 m where possible, and receivers were placed at every 10–20 m. Notable quality data were acquired despite the area being dominated by swampy places as well as by built-up roads and historical tailings. The data processing had to overcome these challenges for the static corrections and strong surface waves in particular. A tailored for hardrock setting and processing workflow was developed for handling such a dataset, where the use of mixed 2D and 3D refraction static corrections was relevant. The resulting seismic volume is rich in terms of reflectivity, with clear southeast-dipping reflections originating from the iron oxide deposits extending vertically and laterally at least 300 m beyond what was known from available boreholes. As a result, we estimate potential additional resources from the 3D reflection seismic experiment on the order of 10 Mt to be worth drilling for detailed assessments. The mineralization is crosscut by at least two major sets of northwest-dipping reflections interpreted to dominantly be normal faults and to be responsible for much of the lowland in the Blötberget area. Moreover, these post-mineralization faults likely control the current 3D geometry of the deposits. Curved and submerged reflections interpreted from folds or later intrusions are also observed, showing the geological complexity of the study area. The seismic survey also delineates the near-surface expression of a historical tailing as a by-product of refraction static corrections, demonstrating why 3D seismic data are so valuable for both mineral exploration and mine planning applications.

Description: In an effort to improve our understanding of the seismic character of the crust beneath southeast Australia and how it relates to the tectonic evolution of the region, we analyse teleseismic earthquakes recorded by 24 temporary and 8 permanent broadband stations using the receiver function method. Due to the proximity of the temporary stations to Bass Strait, only 13 of these stations yielded usable receiver functions, whereas seven permanent stations produced receiver functions for subsequent analysis. Crustal thickness, bulk seismic velocity properties, and internal crustal structure of the southern Tasmanides – an assemblage of Palaeozoic accretionary orogens that occupy eastern Australia – are constrained by H–κ stacking and receiver function inversion, which point to the following: a ∼ 39.0 km thick crust; an intermediate–high Vp/Vs ratio (∼ 1.70–1.76), relative to ak135; and a broad (〉 10 km) crust–mantle transition beneath the Lachlan Fold Belt. These results are interpreted to represent magmatic underplating of mafic materials at the base of the crust. a complex crustal structure beneath VanDieland, a putative Precambrian continental fragment embedded in the southernmost Tasmanides, that features strong variability in the crustal thickness (23–37 km) and Vp/Vs ratio (1.65–193), the latter of which likely represents compositional variability and the presence of melt. The complex origins of VanDieland, which comprises multiple continental ribbons, coupled with recent failed rifting and intraplate volcanism, likely contributes to these observations. stations located in the East Tasmania Terrane and eastern Bass Strait (ETT + EB) collectively indicate a crust of uniform thickness (31–32 km), which clearly distinguishes it from VanDieland to the west. Moho depths are also compared with the continent-wide AusMoho model in southeast Australia and are shown to be largely consistent, except in regions where AusMoho has few constraints (e.g. Flinders Island). A joint interpretation of the new results with ambient noise, teleseismic tomography, and teleseismic shear wave splitting anisotropy helps provide new insight into the way that the crust has been shaped by recent events, including failed rifting during the break-up of Australia and Antarctica and recent intraplate volcanism.

Description: Sea-level rise due to anthropogenic climate change is projected not only to exacerbate extreme events such as cyclones and storms but also to cause more frequent chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions. Chronic flooding occasionally takes place today in the low-lying areas of the Petit Cul-de-sac marin (Guadeloupe, West Indies, French Antilles). This area includes critical industrial and harbor and major economic infrastructures for the islands. As sea level rises, concerns are growing regarding the possibility of repeated chronic flooding events, which would alter the operations at these critical coastal infrastructures without appropriate adaptation. Here, we use information on past and future sea levels, vertical ground motion, and tides to assess times of emergence of chronic flooding in the Petit Cul-de-sac marin. For RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; i.e., continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions), the number of flood days is projected to increase rapidly after the emergence of the process so that coastal sites will be flooded 180 d a year within 2 decades of the onset of chronic flooding. For coastal locations with the lowest altitude, we show that the reconstructed number of floods is consistent with observations known from a previous survey. Vertical ground motions are a key source of uncertainty in our projections. Yet, our satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar results show that the local variability in this subsidence is smaller than the uncertainties in the technique, which we estimate to be between 1 (standard deviation of measurements) and 5 mm/yr (upper theoretical bound). Despite these uncertainties, our results imply that adaptation pathways considering a rapid increase in recurrent chronic flooding are required for the critical port and industrial and commercial center of Guadeloupe. Similar processes are expected to take place in many low-elevation coastal zones worldwide, including on other tropical islands. The method used in this study can be applied to other locations, provided tide gauge records and local knowledge of vertical ground motions are available. We argue that identifying times of emergence of chronic flooding events is urgently needed in most low-lying coastal areas, because adaptation requires decades to be implemented, whereas chronic flooding hazards can worsen drastically within years of the first event being observed.

Description: After accretion and formation, terrestrial planets go through at least one magma ocean episode. As the magma ocean crystallises, it creates the first layer of solid rocky mantle. Two different scenarios of magma ocean crystallisation involve that the solid mantle either (1) first appears at the core–mantle boundary and grows upwards or (2) appears at mid-mantle depth and grows in both directions. Regardless of the magma ocean freezing scenario, the composition of the solid mantle and liquid reservoirs continuously change due to fractional crystallisation. This chemical fractionation has important implications for the long-term thermo-chemical evolution of the mantle as well as its present-day dynamics and composition. In this work, we use numerical models to study convection in a solid mantle bounded at one or both boundaries by magma ocean(s) and, in particular, the related consequences for large-scale chemical fractionation. We use a parameterisation of fractional crystallisation of the magma ocean(s) and (re)melting of solid material at the interface between these reservoirs. When these crystallisation and remelting processes are taken into account, convection in the solid mantle occurs readily and is dominated by large wavelengths. Related material transfer across the mantle–magma ocean boundaries promotes chemical equilibrium and prevents extreme enrichment of the last-stage magma ocean (as would otherwise occur due to pure fractional crystallisation). The timescale of equilibration depends on the convective vigour of mantle convection and on the efficiency of material transfer between the solid mantle and magma ocean(s). For Earth, this timescale is comparable to that of magma ocean crystallisation suggested in previous studies (Lebrun et al., 2013), which may explain why the Earth's mantle is rather homogeneous in composition, as supported by geophysical constraints.

Description: As an effective technique to improve the rainfall forecast, data assimilation plays an important role in meteorology and hydrology. The aim of this study is to explore the reasonable use of Doppler radar data assimilation to correct the initial and lateral boundary conditions of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is applied to simulate three typhoon storm events on the southeast coast of China. Radar data from a Doppler radar station in Changle, China, are assimilated with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3-DVar) model. Nine assimilation modes are designed by three kinds of radar data and at three assimilation time intervals. The rainfall simulations in a medium-scale catchment, Meixi, are evaluated by three indices, including relative error (RE), critical success index (CSI), and root mean square error (RMSE). Assimilating radial velocity at a time interval of 1 h can significantly improve the rainfall simulations, and it outperforms the other modes for all the three storm events. Shortening the assimilation time interval can improve the rainfall simulations in most cases, while assimilating radar reflectivity always leads to worse simulations as the time interval shortens. The rainfall simulations can be improved by data assimilation as a whole, especially for the heavy rainfall with strong convection. The findings provide references for improving the typhoon rainfall forecasts at catchment scale and have great significance on typhoon rainstorm warning.

Description: Karst water resources play an important role in drinking water supply but are highly vulnerable to even slight changes in climate. Thus, solid and spatially dense geological information is needed to model the response of karst hydrological systems to such changes. Additionally, environmental information archived in lake sediments can be used to understand past climate effects on karst water systems. In the present study, we carry out a multi-methodological geophysical survey to investigate the geological situation and sedimentary infill of two karst lakes (Metzabok and Tzibaná) of the Lacandon Forest in Chiapas, southern Mexico. Both lakes present large seasonal lake-level fluctuations and experienced an unusually sudden and strong lake-level decline in the first half of 2019, leaving Lake Metzabok (maximum depth ∼25 m) completely dry and Lake Tzibaná (depth ∼70 m) with a water level decreased by approx. 15 m. Before this event, during a lake-level high stand in March 2018, we collected water-borne seismic data with a sub-bottom profiler (SBP) and transient electromagnetic (TEM) data with a newly developed floating single-loop configuration. In October 2019, after the sudden drainage event, we took advantage of this unique situation and carried out complementary measurements directly on the exposed lake floor of Lakes Metzabok and Tzibaná. During this second campaign, we collected time-domain induced polarization (TDIP) and seismic refraction tomography (SRT) data. By integrating the multi-methodological data set, we (1) identify 5–6 m thick, likely undisturbed sediment sequences on the bottom of both lakes, which are suitable for future paleoenvironmental drilling campaigns, (2) develop a comprehensive geological model implying a strong interconnectivity between surface water and karst aquifer, and (3) evaluate the potential of the applied geophysical approach for the reconnaissance of the geological situation of karst lakes. This methodological evaluation reveals that under the given circumstances, (i) SBP and TDIP phase images consistently resolve the thickness of the fine-grained lacustrine sediments covering the lake floor, (ii) TEM and TDIP resistivity images consistently detect the upper limit of the limestone bedrock and the geometry of fluvial deposits of a river delta, and (iii) TDIP and SRT images suggest the existence of a layer that separates the lacustrine sediments from the limestone bedrock and consists of collapse debris mixed with lacustrine sediments. Our results show that the combination of seismic methods, which are most widely used for lake-bottom reconnaissance, with resistivity-based methods such as TEM and TDIP can significantly improve the interpretation by resolving geological units or bedrock heterogeneities, which are not visible from seismic data. Only the use of complementary methods provides sufficient information to develop comprehensive geological models of such complex karst environments

Description: The present study is to explore the potential relationship between debris flow and landslides by establishing susceptibility zoning maps (SZMs) separately with the use of random forest (RF). Lhünzê county, located in southeastern Tibet, was selected as the study area. The work was carried out with the following steps: (1) an inventory map consisting of 399 landslides and 49 debris flows was determined; (2) slope units and 11 conditioning factors were prepared for the susceptibility modeling of landslide while watershed units and 12 factors were prepared for debris flow; (3) SZMs were constructed for landslide and debris flow, respectively, with the use of RF; (4) the performance of two models was evaluated by 5-fold cross-validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the curve (AUC) and statistical measures; (5) the potential relationship between landslide and debris flow was explored by the superimposition of two zoning maps; (6) the Gini index was applied to determine the major factors and analyze the difference between debris flow and landslides; (7) a combined susceptibility map with two considered hazardous phenomena was obtained. Two used models had demonstrated great predictive capabilities, with an accuracy of 87.33 % and 85.17 % and AUC of 0.902 and 0.892, respectively. Comparing the overlap of different susceptibility classes for two obtained maps, it was concluded that there is no straightforward relationship between the occurrence of debris flow and landslides. Although most landslides can be converted into debris flow, the area prone to debris flow did not promote the occurrence of a landslide. A susceptibility zoning map composed of two or more hazardous phenomena is comprehensive and significant in this regard, which provides a valuable reference for research studies of disaster-chain and engineering applications.

Description: The versatility and cost efficiency of fibre-optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) technologies facilitate geophysical monitoring in environments that were previously inaccessible for instrumentation. Moreover, the spatio-temporal data density permitted by DAS naturally appeals to seismic array processing techniques, such as beamforming for source location. However, the measurement principle of DAS is inherently different from that of conventional seismometers, providing measurements of ground strain rather than ground motion, and so the suitability of traditional seismological methods requires in-depth evaluation. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a DAS array in the task of seismic beamforming, in comparison with a co-located nodal seismometer array. We find that, even though the nodal array achieves excellent performance in localising a regional ML 4.3 earthquake, the DAS array exhibits poor waveform coherence and consequently produces inadequate beamforming results that are dominated by the signatures of shallow scattered waves. We demonstrate that this behaviour is likely inherent to the DAS measurement principle, and so new strategies need to be adopted to tailor array processing techniques to this emerging measurement technology. One strategy demonstrated here is to convert the DAS strain rates to particle velocities by spatial integration using the nodal seismometer recordings as a reference, which dramatically improves waveform coherence and beamforming performance and warrants new types of “hybrid” array design that combine dense DAS arrays with sparse seismometer arrays.

Description: Lens-shaped slivers of Permian (Zechstein) amid Triassic units appearing along the master fault of the Sontra Graben in central Germany on the southern margin of the Central European Basin System (CEBS) were studied by means of detailed map analysis, a semi-quantitative forward model, and two balanced cross sections. We show how partial reactivation of the graben's main normal fault and shortcut thrusting in the footwall during inversion, combined with a specific fault geometry involving flats in low-shear-strength horizons, can produce the observed slivers of “exotic” Zechstein. This conceptual model implies that the Sontra Graben was created by about 1200 m of extension followed by some 1000 m of contraction, resulting in the few hundred meters of net extension observed today. Gentle dips and comparatively extensive exposure of some slivers suggest they are backthrust onto the reactivated normal fault's hanging wall, an interpretation corroborated in one location by shallow drilling. Backthrusting appears to have wedged some Zechstein slivers into incompetent Triassic units of the hanging wall. Based on regional correlation, extension most likely occurred in Late Triassic to Early Cretaceous time, while the contraction is almost certainly of Late Cretaceous age. The main aim of this paper is to describe an uncommon structural feature that we interpret to originate from inversion tectonics in an evaporite-bearing succession with multiple detachment horizons but without the presence of thick salt.

Description: We use high-resolution (4.4 km) numerical simulations of tropical cyclones to produce exceedance probability estimates for extreme wind (gust) speeds over Bangladesh. For the first time, we estimate equivalent return periods up to and including a 1-in-200 year event, in a spatially coherent manner over all of Bangladesh, by using generalised additive models. We show that some northern provinces, up to 200 km inland, may experience conditions equal to or exceeding a very severe cyclonic storm event (maximum wind speeds in ≥64 kn) with a likelihood equal to coastal regions less than 50 km inland. For the most severe super cyclonic storm events (≥120 kn), event exceedance probabilities of 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 events remain limited to the coastlines of southern provinces only. We demonstrate how the Bayesian interpretation of the generalised additive model can facilitate a transparent decision-making framework for tropical cyclone warnings.

Description: With the global climate change and rapid urbanization, urban flood disasters spread and become increasingly serious in China. Urban rainstorms and waterlogging have become an urgent challenge that needs to be monitored in real time and further predicted for the improvement of urbanization construction. We trained a recurrent neural network (RNN) model to classify microblogging posts related to urban waterlogging and establish an online monitoring system of urban waterlogging caused by flood disasters. We manually curated more than 4400 waterlogging posts to train the RNN model so that it can precisely identify waterlogging-related posts of Sina Weibo to timely determine urban waterlogging. The RNN model has been thoroughly evaluated, and our experimental results showed that it achieved higher accuracy than traditional machine learning methods, such as the support vector machine (SVM) and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). Furthermore, we build a nationwide map of urban waterlogging based on recent 2-year microblogging data.

Description: This study was carried out in the Lom series in Cameroon, at the border with Central African Republic, located between the latitudes 5∘30′–6∘ N and the longitudes 13∘30′–14∘45′ E. A multi-scale analysis of aeromagnetic data combining tilt derivative, Euler deconvolution, upward continuation, and 2.75D modelling was used. The following conclusions were drawn. (1) Several major families of faults were mapped. Their orientations are ENE–WSW, E–W, NW–SE, and N–S with a NE–SW prevalence. The latter are predominantly sub-vertical with NW and SW dips and appear to be prospective for future mining investigations. (2) The evidence of compression, folding, and shearing axis was concluded from superposition of null contours of the tilt derivative and Euler deconvolution. The principal evidence of the local tectonics was due to several deformation episodes (D1, D2, and D4) associated with NE–SW, E–W, and NW–SE events, respectively. (3) Depths of interpreted faults range from 1000 to 3400 m. (4) Several linear structures correlating with known mylonitic veins were identified. These are associated with the Lom faults and represent the contacts between the Lom series and the granito-gneissic rocks; we concluded the intense folding was caused by senestral and dextral NE–SW and NW–SE stumps. (5) We propose a structural model of the top of the crust (schists, gneisses, granites) that delineates principal intrusions (porphyroid granite, garnet gneiss, syenites, micaschists, graphite, and garnet gneiss) responsible for the observed anomalies. The 2.75D modelling revealed many faults with a depth greater than 1200 m and confirmed the observations from reduced-to-Equator total magnetic intensity (RTE-TMI), tilt derivative, and Euler deconvolution. (6) We developed a lithologic profile of the Bétaré-Oya basin.

Description: As an essential component of drought risk, crop–drought vulnerability refers to the degree of the adverse response of a crop to a drought event. Different drought intensities and environments can cause significant differences in crop yield losses. Therefore, quantifying drought vulnerability and then identifying its spatial characteristics will help understand vulnerability and develop risk-reduction strategies. We select the European winter wheat growing area as the study area and 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ grids as the basic assessment units. Winter wheat drought vulnerability curves are established based on the erosion–productivity impact calculator model simulation. Their loss change and loss extent characteristics are quantitatively analysed by the key points and cumulative loss rate, respectively, and are then synthetically identified via K-means clustering. The results show the following. (1) The regional yield loss rate starts to rapidly increase from 0.13 when the drought index reaches 0.18 and then converts to a relatively stable stage with the value of 0.74 when the drought index reaches 0.66. (2) In contrast to the Pod Plain, the stage transitions of the vulnerability curve lags behind in the southern mountain area, indicating a stronger tolerance to drought. (3) According to the loss characteristics during the initial, development, and attenuation stages, the vulnerability curves can be divided into five clusters, namely low-low-low, low-low-medium, medium-medium-medium, high-high-high, and low-medium-high loss types, corresponding to the spatial distribution from low latitude to high latitude and from mountain to plain. The paper provides ideas for the study of the impact of environment on vulnerability and for the possible application of vulnerability curve in the context of climate change.

Description: Assessing the size of a former ocean of which only remnants are found in mountain belts is challenging but crucial to understanding subduction and exhumation processes. Here we present new constraints on the opening and width of the Piemont–Liguria (PL) Ocean, known as the Alpine Tethys together with the Valais Basin. We use a regional tectonic reconstruction of the Western Mediterranean–Alpine area, implemented into a global plate motion model with lithospheric deformation, and 2D thermo-mechanical modeling of the rifting phase to test our kinematic reconstructions for geodynamic consistency. Our model fits well with independent datasets (i.e., ages of syn-rift sediments, rift-related fault activity, and mafic rocks) and shows that, between Europe and northern Adria, the PL Basin opened in four stages: (1) rifting of the proximal continental margin in the Early Jurassic (200–180 Ma), (2) hyper-extension of the distal margin in the Early to Middle Jurassic (180–165 Ma), (3) ocean–continent transition (OCT) formation with mantle exhumation and MORB-type magmatism in the Middle–Late Jurassic (165–154 Ma), and (4) breakup and mature oceanic spreading mostly in the Late Jurassic (154–145 Ma). Spreading was slow to ultra-slow (max. 22 mm yr−1, full rate) and decreased to ∼51 mm yr−1 after 145 Ma while completely ceasing at about 130 Ma due to the motion of Iberia relative to Europe during the opening of the North Atlantic. The final width of the PL mature (“true”) oceanic crust reached a maximum of 250 km along a NW–SE transect between Europe and northwestern Adria. Plate convergence along that same transect has reached 680 km since 84 Ma (420 km between 84–35 Ma, 260 km between 35–0 Ma), which greatly exceeds the width of the ocean. We suggest that at least 63 % of the subducted and accreted material was highly thinned continental lithosphere and most of the Alpine Tethys units exhumed today derived from OCT zones. Our work highlights the significant proportion of distal rifted continental margins involved in subduction and exhumation processes and provides quantitative estimates for future geodynamic modeling and a better understanding of the Alpine Orogeny.

Description: Plane failure along inclined joints is a classical mechanism involved in rock slope movements. It is known that the number, size and position of rock bridges along the potential failure plane are of prime importance when assessing slope stability. However, the rock bridge failure phenomenology itself has not been comprehensively understood up to now. In this study, the propagation cascade effect of rock bridge failure leading to catastrophic block sliding is studied and the influence of rock bridge position in regard to the rockfall failure mode (shear or tension) is highlighted. Numerical modelling using the distinct element method (UDEC, Itasca) is undertaken in order to assess the stability of a 10 m3 rock block lying on an inclined joint with a dip angle of 40 or 80∘. The progressive failure of rock bridges is simulated assuming a Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion and considering stress transfers from a failed bridge to the surrounding ones. Two phases of the failure process are described: (1) a stable propagation of the rock bridge failures along the joint and (2) an unstable propagation (cascade effect) of rock bridge failures until the block slides down. Additionally, the most critical position of rock bridges has been identified. It corresponds to the top of the rock block for a dip angle of 40∘ and to its bottom for an angle of 80∘.

Description: We investigated the depth–duration relationship of maximum rainfall over all of Germany based on 16 years of radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (namely, RADKLIM-YW, German Meteorological Service) with a space–time resolution of 1 km2 and 5 min. Contrary to the long-term historic records that identified a smooth power law scaling behaviour between the maximum rainfall depth and duration, our analysis revealed three distinct scaling regimes of which boundaries are approximately 1 h and 1 d. A few extraordinary events dominated a wide range of durations and deviate to the usual power law. Furthermore, the shape of the depth–duration relationship varied with the sample size of randomly selected radar pixels. A smooth scaling behaviour was identified when the sample size was small (e.g. 10 to 100), but the original three distinct scaling regimes became more apparent as the sample size increases (e.g. 1000 to 10 000). Lastly, a pixel-wise classification of the depth–duration relationship of the maximum rainfall at all individual pixels in Germany revealed three distinguishable types of scaling behaviour, clearly determined by the temporal structure of the extreme rainfall events at a pixel. Thus, the relationship might change with longer time series and can be improved once available.

Description: Landslides whose slide surface is gentle near the toe and relatively steep in the middle and rear part are common in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. The mass that overlies the steep part of the slide surface is termed the “driving section”, and that which overlies the gentle part of the slide surface is termed the “resisting section”. A driving–resisting model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides of this type, as exemplified by Shuping landslide. More than 13 years of field observations that include rainfall, reservoir level, and deformation show that the displacement velocity of Shuping landslide depends strongly on the reservoir level but only slightly on rainfall. Seepage modeling shows that the landslide was destabilized shortly after the reservoir was first impounded to 135 m, which initiated a period of steady deformation from 2003 to 2006 that was driven by buoyancy forces on the resisting section. Cyclical water level fluctuations in subsequent years also affected slope stability, with annual “jumps” in displacement coinciding with drawdown periods that produce outward seepage forces. In contrast, the inward seepage force that results from rising reservoir levels stabilizes the slope, as indicated by decreased displacement velocity. Corrective transfer of earth mass from the driving section to the resisting section successfully reduced the deformation of Shuping landslide and is a feasible treatment for huge reservoir landslides in similar geological settings.

Description: Continental–global-scale flood hazard models simulate design floods, i.e. theoretical flood events of a given probability. Since they output phenomena unobservable in reality, large-scale models are typically compared to more localised engineering models to evidence their accuracy. However, both types of model may share the same biases and so not validly illustrate their predictive skill. Here, we adapt an existing continental-scale design flood framework of the contiguous US to simulate historical flood events. A total of 35 discrete events are modelled and compared to observations of flood extent, water level, and inundated buildings. Model performance was highly variable, depending on the flood event chosen and validation data used. While all events were accurately replicated in terms of flood extent, some modelled water levels deviated substantially from those measured in the field. Despite this, the model generally replicated the observed flood events in the context of terrain data vertical accuracy, extreme discharge measurement uncertainties, and observational field data errors. This analysis highlights the continually improving fidelity of large-scale flood hazard models, yet also evidences the need for considerable advances in the accuracy of routinely collected field and high-river flow data in order to interrogate flood inundation models more comprehensively.

Description: The success of geological carbon storage depends on the assurance of permanent containment for injected carbon dioxide (CO2) in the storage formation at depth. One of the critical elements of the safekeeping of CO2 is the sealing capacity of the caprock overlying the storage formation despite faults and/or fractures, which may occur in it. In this work, we present an ongoing injection experiment performed in a fault hosted in clay at the Mont Terri underground rock laboratory (NW Switzerland). The experiment aims to improve our understanding of the main physical and chemical mechanisms controlling (i) the migration of CO2 through a fault damage zone, (ii) the interaction of the CO2 with the neighboring intact rock, and (iii) the impact of the injection on the transmissivity in the fault. To this end, we inject CO2-saturated saline water in the top of a 3 m thick fault in the Opalinus Clay, a clay formation that is a good analog of common caprock for CO2 storage at depth. The mobility of the CO2 within the fault is studied at the decameter scale by using a comprehensive monitoring system. Our experiment aims to close the knowledge gap between laboratory and reservoir scales. Therefore, an important aspect of the experiment is the decameter scale and the prolonged duration of observations over many months. We collect observations and data from a wide range of monitoring systems, such as a seismic network, pressure temperature and electrical conductivity sensors, fiber optics, extensometers, and an in situ mass spectrometer for dissolved gas monitoring. The observations are complemented by laboratory data on collected fluids and rock samples. Here we show the details of the experimental concept and installed instrumentation, as well as the first results of the preliminary characterization. An analysis of borehole logging allows for identifying potential hydraulic transmissive structures within the fault zone. A preliminary analysis of the injection tests helped estimate the transmissivity of such structures within the fault zone and the pressure required to mechanically open such features. The preliminary tests did not record any induced microseismic events. Active seismic tomography enabled sharp imaging the fault zone.

Description: Snow avalanches affect transportation corridors and settlements worldwide. In many mountainous regions, robust records of avalanche frequency and magnitude are sparse or non-existent. However, dendrochronological methods can be used to fill this gap and infer historical avalanche patterns. In this study, we developed a tree-ring-based avalanche chronology for large magnitude avalanche events (size ≥∼D3) using dendrochronological techniques for a portion of the US northern Rocky Mountains. We used a strategic sampling design to examine avalanche activity through time and across nested spatial scales (i.e., from individual paths, four distinct subregions, and the region). We analyzed 673 samples in total from 647 suitable trees collected from 12 avalanche paths from which 2134 growth disturbances were identified over the years 1636 to 2017 CE. Using existing indexing approaches, we developed a regional avalanche activity index to discriminate avalanche events from noise in the tree-ring record. Large magnitude avalanches, common across the region, occurred in 30 individual years and exhibited a median return interval of approximately 3 years (mean = 5.21 years). The median large magnitude avalanche return interval (3–8 years) and the total number of avalanche years (12–18) varies throughout the four subregions, suggesting the important influence of local terrain and weather factors. We tested subsampling routines for regional representation, finding that sampling 8 random paths out of a total of 12 avalanche paths in the region captures up to 83 % of the regional chronology, whereas four paths capture only 43 % to 73 %. The greatest value probability of detection for any given path in our dataset is 40 %, suggesting that sampling a single path would capture no more than 40 % of the regional avalanche activity. Results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when attempting to derive a regional large magnitude avalanche event chronology from tree-ring records.

Description: Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European Commission's European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index. The CDI conceptualizes drought as a cascade process, where a precipitation shortage (WATCH stage) develops into a soil water deficit (WARNING stage), which in turn leads to stress for vegetation (ALERT stage). The main goal of the revised CDI proposed here is to improve the indicator's performance for those events that are currently not reliably represented, without altering either the modelling conceptual framework or the required input datasets. This is achieved by means of two main modifications: (a) use of the previously occurring CDI value to improve the temporal consistency of the time series and (b) introduction of two temporary classes – namely TEMPORARY RECOVERY for soil moisture and vegetation greenness, respectively – to avoid brief discontinuities in a stage. The efficacy of the modifications is tested by comparing the performances of the revised and currently implemented versions of the indicator for actual drought events in Europe during the last 20 years. The revised CDI reliably reproduces the evolution of major droughts, outperforming the current version of the indicator, especially for long-lasting events, and reducing the overall temporal inconsistencies in stage sequencing of about 70 %. Since the revised CDI does not need supplementary input datasets, it is suitable for operational implementation within the EDO drought monitoring system.

Description: Flood disasters frequently threaten people and property all over the world. Therefore, an effective numerical model is required to predict the impacts of floods. In this study, a dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model (DBCM) is developed with the implementation of characteristic wave theory, in which the boundary between these two models can dynamically adapt according to local flow conditions. The proposed model accounts for both mass and momentum transfer on the coupling boundary and was validated via several benchmark tests. The results show that the DBCM can effectively reproduce the process of flood propagation and also account for surface flow interaction between non-inundation and inundation regions. The DBCM was implemented for the floods simulation that occurred at Helin Town located in Chongqing, China, which shows the capability of the model for flood risk early warning and future management.

Description: This paper is devoted to benchmarking the Multilayer-HySEA model using laboratory experimental data for landslide-generated tsunamis. This article deals with rigid slides, and the second part, in a companion paper, addresses granular slides. The US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) has proposed the experimental data used and established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). The first three benchmark problems proposed in this workshop deal with rigid slides. Rigid slides must be simulated as a moving bottom topography, and, therefore, they must be modeled as a prescribed boundary condition. These three benchmarks are used here to validate the Multilayer-HySEA model. This new HySEA model consists of an efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model. A brief description of model equations, dispersive properties, and the numerical scheme is included. The benchmarks are described and the numerical results compared against the lab-measured data for each of them. The specific aim is to validate this new code for tsunamis generated by rigid slides. Nevertheless, the overall objective of the current benchmarking effort is to produce a ready-to-use numerical tool for real-world landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. This tool has already been used to reproduce the Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and Stromboli, Italy, 2002 events.

Description: The final aim of the present work is to propose a NTHMP-benchmarked numerical tool for landslide-generated tsunami hazard assessment. To achieve this, the novel Multilayer-HySEA model is validated using laboratory experiment data for landslide-generated tsunamis. In particular, this second part of the work deals with granular slides, while the first part, in a companion paper, considers rigid slides. The experimental data used have been proposed by the US National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (NTHMP) and were established for the NTHMP Landslide Benchmark Workshop, held in January 2017 at Galveston (Texas). Three of the seven benchmark problems proposed in that workshop dealt with tsunamis generated by rigid slides and are collected in the companion paper (Macías et al., 2021). Another three benchmarks considered tsunamis generated by granular slides. They are the subject of the present study. The seventh benchmark problem proposed the field case of Port Valdez, Alaska, 1964 and can be found in Macías et al. (2017). In order to reproduce the laboratory experiments dealing with granular slides, two models need to be coupled: one for the granular slide and a second one for the water dynamics. The coupled model used consists of a new and efficient hybrid finite-volume–finite-difference implementation on GPU architectures of a non-hydrostatic multilayer model coupled with a Savage–Hutter model. To introduce the multilayer model more fluidly, we first present the equations of the one-layer model, Landslide-HySEA, with both strong and weak couplings between the fluid layer and the granular slide. Then, a brief description of the multilayer model equations and the numerical scheme used is included. The dispersive properties of the multilayer model can be found in the companion paper. Then, results for the three NTHMP benchmark problems dealing with tsunamis generated by granular slides are presented with a description of each benchmark problem.

Description: Piton de la Fournaise, situated on La Réunion island (France), is one of the most active hot spot basaltic shield volcanoes worldwide, experiencing at least two eruptions per year since the establishment of the volcanological observatory in 1979. Eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. About 95 % of some ∼ 250 historical events (since the first confidently dated eruption in 1708) have occurred inside an uninhabited horseshoe-shaped caldera (hereafter referred to as the Enclos), which is open to the ocean on its eastern side. Rarely (12 times since the 18th century), fissures have opened outside of the Enclos, where housing units, population centers, and infrastructure are at risk. In such a situation, lava flow hazard maps are a useful way of visualizing lava flow inundation probabilities over large areas. Here, we present the up-to-date lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise based on (i) vent distribution, (ii) lava flow recurrence times, (iii) statistics of lava flow lengths, and (iv) simulations of lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW stochastic numerical model. The map of the entire volcano highlights the spatial distribution probability of future lava flow invasion for the medium to long term (years to decades). It shows that the most probable location for future lava flow is within the Enclos (where there are areas with up to 12 % probability), a location visited by more than 100 000 visitors every year. Outside of the Enclos, probabilities reach 0.5 % along the active rift zones. Although lava flow hazard occurrence in inhabited areas is deemed to be very low (

Description: The contemporary stress state in the upper crust is of great interest for geotechnical applications and basic research alike. However, our knowledge of the crustal stress field from the data perspective is limited. For Germany basically two datasets are available: orientations of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) and the stress regime as part of the World Stress Map (WSM) database as well as a complementary compilation of stress magnitude data of Germany and adjacent regions. However, these datasets only provide pointwise, incomplete and heterogeneous information of the 3D stress tensor. Here, we present a geomechanical–numerical model that provides a continuous description of the contemporary 3D crustal stress state on a regional scale for Germany. The model covers an area of about 1000×1250 km2 and extends to a depth of 100 km containing seven units, with specific material properties (density and elastic rock properties) and laterally varying thicknesses: a sedimentary unit, four different units of the upper crust, the lower crust and the lithospheric mantle. The model is calibrated by the two datasets to achieve a best-fit regarding the SHmax orientations and the minimum horizontal stress magnitudes (Shmin). The modeled orientations of SHmax are almost entirely within the uncertainties of the WSM data used and the Shmin magnitudes fit to various datasets well. Only the SHmax magnitudes show locally significant deviations, primarily indicating values that are too low in the lower part of the model. The model is open for further refinements regarding model geometry, e.g., additional layers with laterally varying material properties, and incorporation of future stress measurements. In addition, it can provide the initial stress state for local geomechanical models with a higher resolution.

Description: Subduction and exhumation are key processes in the formation of orogenic systems across the world, for example, in the European Alps. For geophysical investigations of these orogens, it is essential to understand the petrophysical properties of the rocks involved. These are the result of a complex interaction of mineral composition and rock fabric including mineral textures (i.e., crystallographic preferred orientations). In this study we present texture-derived elastic anisotropy data for a representative set of different lithologies involved in the Alpine orogeny. Rock samples were collected in the Lago di Cignana area in Valtournenche, in the Italian northwestern Alps. At this locality a wide range of units of continental and oceanic origin with varying paleogeographic affiliations and tectono-metamorphic histories are accessible. Their mineral textures were determined by time-of-flight neutron diffraction. From these data the elastic properties of the samples were calculated. The data set includes representative lithologies from a subduction-exhumation setting. In subducted lithologies originating from the oceanic crust, the P-wave anisotropies (AVPs [%]) range from 1.4 % to 3.7 % with average P-wave velocities of 7.20–8.24 km/s and VP / VS ratios of 1.70–1.75. In the metasediments of the former accretionary prism the AVPs range from 3.7 % to 7.1 %, average P-wave velocities are 6.66–7.23 km/s and VP / VS ratios are 1.61–1.76. Continental crust which is incorporated in the collisional orogen shows AVP ranging from 1.4 % to 2.1 % with average P-wave velocities of 6.52–6.62 km/s and VP / VS ratios of 1.56–1.60. Our results suggest that mafic and felsic rocks in subduction zones at depth may be discriminated by a combination of seismic signatures: lower anisotropy and higher VP / VS ratio for mafic rocks, and higher anisotropy and lower VP / VS ratio for felsic rocks and metasediments.

Description: Theoretical approaches to earthquake instabilities propose shear-dominated source mechanisms. Here we take a fresh look at the role of possible volumetric instabilities preceding a shear instability. We investigate the phenomena that may prepare earthquake instabilities using the coupling of thermo-hydro-mechano-chemical reaction–diffusion equations in a THMC diffusion matrix. We show that the off-diagonal cross-diffusivities can give rise to a new class of waves known as cross-diffusion or quasi-soliton waves. Their unique property is that for critical conditions cross-diffusion waves can funnel wave energy into a stationary wave focus from large to small scale. We show that the rich solution space of the reaction–cross-diffusion approach to earthquake instabilities can recover classical Turing instabilities (periodic in space instabilities), Hopf bifurcations (spring-slider-like earthquake models), and a new class of quasi-soliton waves. Only the quasi-soliton waves can lead to extreme focussing of the wave energy into short-wavelength instabilities of short duration. The equivalent extreme event in ocean waves and optical fibres leads to the appearance of “rogue waves” and high energy pulses of light in photonics. In the context of hydromechanical coupling, a rogue wave would appear as a sudden fluid pressure spike. This spike is likely to cause unstable slip on a pre-existing (near-critically stressed) fault acting as a trigger for the ultimate (shear) seismic moment release.

Description: The dynamics of growing collisional orogens are mainly controlled by buoyancy and shear forces. However, the relative importance of these forces, their temporal evolution and their impact on the tectonic style of orogenic wedges remain elusive. Here, we quantify buoyancy and shear forces during collisional orogeny and investigate their impact on orogenic wedge formation and exhumation of crustal rocks. We leverage two-dimensional petrological–thermomechanical numerical simulations of a long-term (ca. 170 Myr) lithosphere deformation cycle involving subsequent hyperextension, cooling, convergence, subduction and collision. Hyperextension generates a basin with exhumed continental mantle bounded by asymmetric passive margins. Before convergence, we replace the top few kilometres of the exhumed mantle with serpentinite to investigate its role during subduction and collision. We study the impact of three parameters: (1) shear resistance, or strength, of serpentinites, controlling the strength of the evolving subduction interface; (2) strength of the continental upper crust; and (3) density structure of the subducted material. Densities are determined by linearized equations of state or by petrological-phase equilibria calculations. The three parameters control the evolution of the ratio of upward-directed buoyancy force to horizontal driving force, FB/FD=ArF, which controls the mode of orogenic wedge formation: ArF≈0.5 causes thrust-sheet-dominated wedges, ArF≈0.75 causes minor wedge formation due to relamination of subducted crust below the upper plate, and ArF≈1 causes buoyancy-flow- or diapir-dominated wedges involving exhumation of crustal material from great depth (〉80 km). Furthermore, employing phase equilibria density models reduces the average topography of wedges by several kilometres. We suggest that during the formation of the Pyrenees ArF⪅0.5 due to the absence of high-grade metamorphic rocks, whereas for the Alps ArF≈1 during exhumation of high-grade rocks and ArF⪅0.5 during the post-collisional stage. In the models, FD increases during wedge growth and subduction and eventually reaches magnitudes (≈18 TN m−1) which are required to initiate subduction. Such an increase in the horizontal force, required to continue driving subduction, might have “choked” the subduction of the European plate below the Adriatic one between 35 and 25 Ma and could have caused the reorganization of plate motion and subduction initiation of the Adriatic plate.

Description: We propose a multiscale approach for coupling multi-physics processes across the scales. The physics is based on discrete phenomena, triggered by local thermo-hydro-mechano-chemical (THMC) instabilities, that cause cross-diffusion (quasi-soliton) acceleration waves. These waves nucleate when the overall stress field is incompatible with accelerations from local feedbacks of generalized THMC thermodynamic forces that trigger generalized thermodynamic fluxes of another kind. Cross-diffusion terms in the 4×4 THMC diffusion matrix are shown to lead to multiple diffusional P and S wave equations as coupled THMC solutions. Uncertainties in the location of meso-scale material instabilities are captured by a wave-scale correlation of probability amplitudes. Cross-diffusional waves have unusual dispersion patterns and, although they assume a solitary state, do not behave like solitons but show complex interactions when they collide. Their characteristic wavenumber and constant speed define mesoscopic internal material time–space relations entirely defined by the coefficients of the coupled THMC reaction–cross-diffusion equations. A companion paper proposes an application of the theory to earthquakes showing that excitation waves triggered by local reactions can, through an extreme effect of a cross-diffusional wave operator, lead to an energy cascade connecting large and small scales and cause solid-state turbulence.

Description: Damage in Armenia, Colombia, for the 25 January 1999 (Mw=6.2, peak ground acceleration (PGA) 580 Gal) event was disproportionate. We analyze the damage report as a function of number of stories and construction age of buildings. We recovered two vulnerability evaluations made in Armenia in 1993 and in 2004. We compare the results of the 1993 evaluation with damage observed in 1999 and show that the vulnerability evaluation made in 1993 could have predicted the relative frequency of damage observed in 1999. Our results show that vulnerability of the building stock was the major factor behind damage observed in 1999. Moreover, it showed no significant reduction between 1999 and 2004.

Description: The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

Description: This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

Description: Venice is an iconic place and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural values at risk. The frequency of the flooding of the city centre has dramatically increased in recent decades, and this threat is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. This special issue is a collection of three review articles addressing different and complementary aspects of the hazards causing the floods of Venice, namely (1) the relative sea level rise, (2) the occurrence of extreme water heights, and (3) the prediction of extreme water heights and floods. It emerges that the effect of compound events poses critical challenges to the forecast of floods, particularly from the perspective of effectively operating the new mobile barriers (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico – MoSE) in Venice and that the relative sea level rise is the key factor determining the future growth of the flood hazard, so that the present defence strategy is likely to become inadequate within this century under a high-emission scenario. Two strands of research are needed in the future. First, there is a need to better understand and reduce the uncertainty of the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes at Venice. However, this uncertainty might not be substantially reduced in the near future, reflecting the uncertain anthropogenic emissions and structural model features. Hence, complementary adaptive planning strategies appropriate for conditions of uncertainty should be explored and developed in the future.

Description: Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.