ALBERT

Description: The main objective of this study was evaluation and mapping of an average rate of phenological changes for example special plant s indicators as a result of climatic changes in Poland. Multi-year analysis clearly showed a tendency to earlier onset of spring events. The average advance of flowering/leafing was −1.4 days/decade and −2.4 days/1°C. Whereas the response of autumn phenophases was ambiguous. Phenological and climate data come from archives of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. Analysis covered the period of 1951–1992. The relation between temperature and date of phenophases was described with Pearson's linear regression model. Statistical significance of the model parameters was checked with Student's t-test at the following levels: 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001. The results were visualised on maps. ArcGIS 9.2 Geostatistical Analyst was used to examine the data and create prediction maps. Numerous tests were performed in order to find an appropriate method of spatial interpolation. Finally kriging was chosen as the most precise.

Description: Warning is a key issue to reduce flash floods impacts. But, despite many studies, local and national authorities still struggle to issue good flash floods warnings. We will argue that this failure results from a classical approach of warnings, based on a strict separation between the assessment world and the action world. We will go further than the previous criticisms (Pielke and Carbone, 2002) and show that forecasters, decision makers, emergency services and local population have quite similar practices during a flash-flood warning. Focusing on the use of meteorological information in the warning process, our case study shows that more research about the real practices of stakeholders would be another step towards integrated studies.

Description: At MeteoSwiss an integrated modelling system is used to simulate the dispersion of radioactive material in emergency situations. For the prediction of the atmospheric flow, the COSMO numerical weather prediction model is used. The model is run operationally at 6.6 and 2.2 km horizontal resolution, respectively and uses a 1.5 order turbulence closure with a prognostic equation for turbulent kinetic energy. Both versions of the COSMO model are coupled off-line with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM). The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the dispersion model to different interfacing approaches between LPDM and the COSMO model. The diagnosed turbulence variables are validated on an ideal convective case and two measurement campaigns. Simulations of hypothetical pollutant releases show that the different interfacing approaches can lead to substantial changes in the forecasted concentrations.

Description: The Satelite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring has implemented a new processing environment for AVHRR-based climate monitoring products. AVHRR measurements from NOAA-17, NOAA-18 and MetOp-A are utilized to generate daily and monthly means of several cloud parameters for Europe and the Inner Arctic: Cloud fraction, cloud types, cloud phase, cloud top height, cloud optical thickness and cloud liquid water path.

Description: The COST ES0602 action provides a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi-model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting and near real-time information services in Europe. The action includes approximately 30 participants from 19 countries, and its duration is from 2007 to 2011 (http://www.chemicalweather.eu/). Major efforts have been dedicated in other actions and projects to the development of infrastructures for data flow. We have therefore aimed for collaboration with ongoing actions towards developing near real-time exchange of input data for air quality forecasting. We have collected information on the operational air quality forecasting models on a regional and continental scale in a structured form, and inter-compared and evaluated the physical and chemical structure of these models. We have also constructed a European chemical weather forecasting portal that includes links to most of the available chemical weather forecasting systems in Europe. The collaboration also includes the examination of the case studies that have been organized within COST-728, in order to inter-compare and evaluate the models against experimental data. We have also constructed an operational model forecasting ensemble. Data from a representative set of regional background stations have been selected, and the operational forecasts for this set of sites will be inter-compared and evaluated. The Action has investigated, analysed and reviewed existing chemical weather information systems and services, and will provide recommendations on best practices concerning the presentation and dissemination of chemical weather information towards the public and decision makers.

Description: Particularly in summer, thermal conditions in urban areas are influenced by solar radiation and human health can be strongly affected by the higher temperature regime increased by the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI). Many studies have been carried out to estimate the temperature distribution in urban areas and some of these use or are based on data collected by meteorological instruments placed within the cities. At microscale, temperature collected by sensors can be influenced by the underlying surface characteristics and the closeness to warm surfaces. The aim of this study is to investigate how different exposure to solar radiation can affect air temperature measurement in streets and gardens. The study was carried out on two different areas in Florence during summer 2007. Shielded air temperature sensors were placed in a street of a high density built-up area and in a green area. Each area was monitored by two sensors, sited in different solar radiation exposure: one in a sunny area and the other in a shaded one. A preliminary data analysis showed a difference in every site between the air temperature values collected by the two sensors especially from the morning to the afternoon. The relationship between air temperature differences and synoptic meteorological conditions were also analyzed. In conclusion, the solar radiation exposure of a monitoring station is an important parameter that must be considered both during the instruments siting and the analysis of data collected by sensors previously placed. The result of this study shows that during particular synoptic conditions, data collected by the two sensors of the same area can be different.

Description: We propose the height zi of the inversion in the vertical profile of potential temperature, on the top of a mixed layer or of a residual layer as a relevant parameter for retrieving information related to water vapour in the lower layers of the atmosphere, from currently available operational satellites information. We estimated zi using an algorithm where a set of threshold values in the vertical gradients of potential temperature are used to analyse the available profiles in order to find relevant inversions. Thresholds are derived from the subjective analysis of a set of high vertical resolution soundings from the coastal site of the Italian Meteorological Service of Pratica di Mare (WMO #16245, lat. 41.66° N, lon. 12.45° E). The sensitivity of the method to vertical sampling is tested comparing results obtained by applying the method to two sets of about 6500 raw and sampled radiosoundings during the period 2002–2008. Differences in average seasonal and six-hourly values of zi from the two datasets are found within the range 5–10%. The method was then applied to a larger set of soundings from coastal and continental Mediterranean sites collected in a standard archive. It was found that mean summer values of zi at coastal sites are lower than in winter, conversely to continental sites. Furthermore, values of zi found using the proposed algorithm show a systematically higher inversion if compared to height found using the Richardson Number method, although there are cases when both identify the inversion at the same height.

Description: During 2007-2009 the ADAGIO project (http://www.adagio-eu.org) is carried out to evaluate regional adaptation options in agriculture in most vulnerable European regions (mediterranean, central and eastern European regions). In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientific studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilities and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat are the main factors having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the Mediterranean region, but also in the Central and southern Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. Although dominating risks such as increasing drought and heat are similar in most regions, the vulnerabilities in the different regions are very much influenced by characteristics of the dominating agroecosystems and prevailing socio-economic conditions. This will be even be more significant for potential adaptation measures at the different levels, which have to reflect the regional conditions.

Description: Water management authorities need detailed information about each component of the hydrological balance. This document presents a method to estimate the evapotranspiration rate, initialized in order to obtain the reference crop evapotranspiration rate (ET0). By using an Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme, the hourly observations of several meteorological variables, measured by a high-resolution local meteorological network, are interpolated over a regular grid. The analysed meteorological fields, containing detailed meteorological information, enter a model for turbulent heat fluxes estimation based on Monin-Obukhov surface layer similarity theory. The obtained ET0 fields are then post-processed and disseminated to the users.

Description: One year of continuous wind and turbulence measurements at three levels (5, 9 and 25 m) on a mast located in the suburb of the city of Turin were collected. Those recorded during April 2007 are analyzed and their main characteristics are presented and discussed. The analysis includes, at each level, mean, standard deviation, Skewness, Kurtosis for the 3-D wind components and sonic temperature. The integral time scales for the 3-D wind components are also computed and friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length are determined as well. In particular, the wind standard deviation profiles as a function of stability are compared to the literature predictions for flat undisturbed terrain. It is found that, while the vertical component agrees reasonably well, the horizontal components deviate from the prescribed values, as expected considering the buildings and other obstacles effects and the high percentage of low-wind conditions. Also the integral time scales, estimated by the autocorrelation functions, are compared to the literature predictions, finding significant differences, again attributed to the low-wind speed occurrences.

Description: The overall agricultural system in the Nile Delta region is considered as one of the highest intensive and complicated agriculture systems in the world. According to the recent studies, the Nile Delta region is one of the highly vulnerable regions in the world to climate change. Sea level rise, soil and water degradation, undiversified crop-pattern, yield reduction, pests and disease severity, and irrigation and drainage management were the main key factors that increased vulnerability of the agriculture sector in that region. The main objective of this study is to conduct a community-based multi-criteria adaptation assessment in the Nile Delta using a preset questionnaire. A list of possible adaptation measures for agriculture sector was evaluated. The results indicated that the Nile Delta growers have strong perceptions to act positively to reduce the impacts of climate change. They reflected the need to improve the their adaptive capacity based on clear scientific message with adequate governmental support to coop with the negative impacts of climate change.

Description: In recent years, the use of mesoscale meteorological network data has been growing. An Optimal Interpolation (OI) method is used to interpolate on a regular grid the hourly averaged values of temperature, relative humidity, wind vector, atmospheric pressure, and hourly cumulated precipitation. For all variables, except precipitation, the background (i.e. first guess) information is obtained by detrending the observations using the geographical parameters. For precipitation, the M. Lema radar-derived best estimate of precipitation rate at the ground is used. The characteristics of the OI schemes are shown in several test cases using data from ARPA Lombardia's mesoscale meteorological network. Finally, a quantitative diagnostics for temperature and relative humidity is carried out by using Cross Validation (CV) scores computed with large sets of data.

Description: Monthly Northern and Central Italy precipitation climatologies, obtained by means of a procedure aiming at capturing the local dependence of precipitation on elevation, are presented. The procedure consists in considering each cell of a high-resolution grid and in making use of the closest 15 stations in order to perform a weighted linear regression of precipitation versus elevation: the weights are determined by the distances of the stations from the grid point and by the level of similarity between the stations' cells and the considered grid cell in terms of elevation, slope steepness, slope orientation and distance from the sea. The study is based on a dataset of about 3200 1961–1990 monthly precipitation normals. The performance of the procedure is evaluated by reconstructing the monthly precipitation normals of each station and by comparing them with the corresponding observed values. Such comparisons are performed by means of five error estimators: the mean absolute error and the mean error, both evaluated in absolute and relative form, and the root mean squared error. The mean absolute error is slightly more than 10 mm for the monthly precipitation, which turns out to be between 10% and 14% of the monthly precipitation.

Description: EUROGRID is the vision of the European network of meteorological services (EUMETNET) about a European service for gridded climate monitoring information and products responding to the needs of users from a variety of domains. The EUMETNET project Showcase EUROGRID (S-EUROGRID) presented in this paper has the main objective to provide a better understanding of the EUROGRID idea and the way forward towards its realization. In addition to the identification of user requirements on gridded climate monitoring data and services S-EUROGRID aims to demonstrate example products and services building on existing shared gridded climate monitoring information available from European meteorological and hydrological services and other initiatives. The latter includes a harmonized visualization of data, the generation of example products/services and the dissemination of raw or processed data to the user community. For these purposes S-EUROGRID needed a simple and low-cost technical solution allowing for the seamless integration and dissemination of maps and data contributed by distributed resources, leading to Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC)-protocols as one promising option. In this concept, data providers can set up their own OGC-compliant services for climate data, which then can be viewed/accessed in a harmonized way, e.g. through the S-EUROGRID portal or by a user's specific client software (e.g. a GIS). Dynamic (i.e. real-time) generation of products is beyond the scope of S-EUROGRID, but the architectural choice of OGC-standards offers easy ways for client-side data processing, e.g., using the end user's GIS capacity. In addition, S-EUROGRID hosts a selection of pre-processed example products, illustrating the potential of combining gridded climate monitoring information with data and information sources from other thematic domains.

Description: The paper presents monthly 30-arc-second-resolution Northern and Central Italy temperature climatologies and discusses the procedure we adopt to superimpose the information of temperature secular records onto these climatologies. The climatologies are obtained by means of a step-wise linear regression method which aims at determining the temperature dependence on geographical and morphological variables. Such a method is applied to a database of about 800 monthly 1961–1990 temperature normals. In the first regression (temperature vs. elevation) the recorded data are considered; the further regressions concern the residuals obtained after taking into account the effect of each variable, in order of importance. An estimated secular anomaly record can be obtained for each point of the climatology grid by means of a distance-weighted average of the temperature anomaly records of the stations surrounding the grid point.

Description: The objective of this study is to present and analyse the spatial distribution of PM1 (particulate matter with diameter less than 1 μm) and PM10 (particulate matter with diameter less than 10 μm) within the greater area of Athens (GAA), Greece, during two extreme Saharan dust episodes in 2006 and 2008. Two portable detectors, based on light scattering method, were used to record the particulate matter concentrations. The samples were collected in the same morning hour of the day which coincided with the peak of vehicles traffic. We analysed the recorded data on normal days and on days with extreme Saharan dust events in order to find out the exceedances of the particulate matter concentrations. Using Kriging method, the spatial patterns of PM1 and PM10 concentrations were constructed for GAA. It is already known that particulate matter represent the main hazard in cardiovascular and respiratory syndromes within the most polluted cities of Europe, which confront high traffic problems, amplified by Saharan dust episodes, which are frequent especially in the Southern Europe, during spring time. The results of the performed analysis showed that during these episodes, PM concentrations over exceed the thresholds set by the European Union, exacerbating the human health in Athens.

Description: Modern supercomputers allow realising multi-scale systems for assessment and forecasting of urban meteorology, air pollution and emergency preparedness and considering nesting with obstacle-resolved models. A multi-scale modelling system with downscaling from regional to city-scale with the Environment – HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) and to micro-scale with the obstacle-resolved Micro-scale Model for Urban Environment (M2UE) is suggested and demonstrated. The M2UE validation results versus the Mock Urban Setting Trial (MUST) experiment indicate satisfactory quality of the model. Necessary conditions for the choice of nested models, building descriptions, areas and resolutions of nested models are analysed. Two-way nesting (up- and down-scaling), when scale effects both directions (from the meso-scale on the micro-scale and from the micro-scale on the meso-scale), is also discussed.

Description: This project will provide the European Commission (EC) with an overview of the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the European Union (EU), particularly within the Natura 2000 (N2K) network of protected areas, and indications of how the design and implementation of current policy might need to be adapted to ensure that the EU delivers its commitment to halt biodiversity loss by 2010 and beyond. The study will identify those species and associated habitats that are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change and the steps required to protect the integrity of the network from negative effects. The study will also assess the impacts of large-scale renewable energy schemes (wind parks, hydroelectric schemes and tidal barrages) on biodiversity and produce guidelines on the sorts of measures that might be used to maintain and protect N2K sites.

Description: The concentration fields calculated with three Gaussian models and one Lagrangian dispersion model are validated against a set of SF6 concentration data provided by the German environmental programme BWPLUS. The source was a pig fattening unit in fairly flat terrain. The results reveal that, in flat terrain with steady undisturbed flow, the use of Gauss models is still justified, whereas Lagrangian models should be used whenever the flow is modified by obstacles or topography.

Description: Scattering and absorption coefficients near the ground were measured in Évora, Portugal, in the period of 2006 to 2008. The average scattering coefficient, at the wavelength of 550 nm, for the whole period of measurements was found to be 40.3 Mm−1 and the absorption coefficient, at the wavelength of 670 nm, 8.6 Mm−1. These values are comparable to those measured in rural or background locations and reflect the small size of the city and relatively low magnitude of anthropogenic production at the site. A marked seasonal variation was found for the absorption coefficient, with a significant increase from 5.8 Mm−1, in summer, to 13.4 Mm−1, in winter. Regarding black carbon mass concentrations, this twofold increase, from 0.9 to 2.0 μgm−3, is mainly attributed to the wood combustion used for heating in conjunction with lower boundary layer mixing heights. The average scattering coefficient presented a more complex behaviour, although with a tendency for higher values in winter and lower values in spring.

Description: Quality control and homogenization has to be undertaken prior to any data analysis in order to eliminate any erroneous values and non climatic biases in time series. In this work we describe and then apply our own approach to data quality control, combining several methods: (i) by applying limits derived from interquartile ranges (ii) by analyzing difference series between candidate and neighbouring stations and (iii) by comparing the series values tested with "expected'' values – technical series created by means of statistical methods for spatial data (e.g. IDW, kriging). Because of the presence of noise in series, statistical homogeneity tests render results with some degree of uncertainty. In this work, the use of various statistical tests and reference series made it possible to increase considerably the number of homogeneity test results for each series and thus to assess homogeneity more reliably. Inhomogeneities were corrected on a daily scale. These methodological approaches are demonstrated by use of the daily data of air temperature and precipitation measured in the area of the Czech Republic. Series were processed by means of developed ProClimDB and AnClim software (http://www.climahom.eu).

Description: Vince was an unusual hurricane that developed over the North Atlantic Ocean in an unexpected area, on October 2005. In this work, the authors analyze its background and genesis over the ocean, making use of satellite imagery and numerical models. The impacts on sea state are investigated both numerically and observationally. Landfall over the Iberian Peninsula is monitored with surface observations and a radar system at Algarve (Portugal).

Description: COST – European COoperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research – is the oldest and widest intergovernmental European network for cooperation in research. COST Action 725 (running from 2004 to 2009) aimed at and succeeded in establishing a European data base of phenological observations, classifying the data according to one common system and using the data in scientific peer reviewed papers. COST725 organized many workshops and conferences that helped to bring together not only the European, but also the global, phenological community. One of the highlights of COST725 was the boxed entry "Phenological responses to climate in Europe: the COST725 project" in the AR4 of IPCC in 2007. And last, but not least, although the action ended in April 2009 a follow up will be launched in 2010 under EUMETNET/ECSN.

Description: In November 2005 an extratropical storm named Delta affected the Canary Islands (Spain). The high sustained wind and intense gusts experienced caused significant damage. A numerical sensitivity study of Delta was conducted using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW). A total of 27 simulations were performed. Non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic experiments were designed taking into account physical parameterizations and geometrical factors (size and position of the outer domain, definition or not of nested grids, horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels). The Factor Separation Method was applied in order to identify the major model sensitivity parameters under this unusual meteorological situation. Results associated to percentage changes relatives to a control run simulation demonstrated that boundary layer and surface layer schemes, horizontal resolutions, hydrostaticity option and nesting grid activation were the model configuration parameters with the greatest impact on the 48 h maximum 10 m horizontal wind speed solution.

Description: The development and verification of a probabilistic forecast system for winter thunderstorms around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol is described. We have used Model Output Statistics (MOS) to develop the probabilistic forecast equations. The MOS system consists of 32 logistic regression equations, i.e. for two forecast periods (0–6 h and 6–12 h), four 90×80 km2 regions around Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and four 6-h time periods. For the predictand quality-controlled Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférométrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR) total lightning data were used. The potential predictors were calculated from postprocessed output of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models – i.e. the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model – and from an ensemble of advected lightning and radar data (0–6 h projections only). The predictors that are selected most often are the HIRLAM Boyden index, the square root of the ECMWF 3-h and 6-h convective precipitation sum, the HIRLAM convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two radar advection predictors. An objective verification was done, from which it can be concluded that the MOS system is skilful. The forecast system runs at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on an experimental basis, with the primary objective to warn aircraft pilots for potential aircraft induced lightning (AIL) risk during winter.

Description: Soil moisture and ozone deposition velocity under continental climate conditions were estimated using a newly developed algorithm. The relationship between soil moisture and deposition velocity was investigated and analysed. These results emphasize the importance of a sophisticated parameterization of soil moisture in surface-atmosphere interaction processes.

Description: Analytical model of convection in a thick horizontal cloud layer with free upper and lower boundaries is constructed. The cloud layer is supposed to be subjected to the Coriolis force due to the cloud rotation, which is a typical condition for tornado formation. It is obtained that convection in such system can look as just one rotating cell in contrast to the usual many-cells Benard convection. The tornado-type vortex is different from spatially periodic convective cells because their amplitudes vanish with distance from the vortex axis. The lower boundary at this convection can substantially move out of the initially horizontal cloud layer forming a single vertical vortex with intense upward and downward flows. The results are also applicable to convection in water layer with negative temperature gradient.