ALBERT

Description: This profile provides an overview of the projected climate parameters and related impacts on different sectors in Cameroon until 2080 under different climate change scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). RCP2.6 represents a low emissions scenario that aims to keep global warming likely below 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. RCP6.0 represents a medium to high emissions scenario that is likely to exceed 2 °C. Model projections do not account for effects of future socio-economic impacts unless indicated otherwise.

Description: This profile provides an overview of projected climate parameters and related impacts on different sectors in Senegal until 2080 under different climate change scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). RCP2.6 represents the low emissions scenario in line with the Paris Agreement; RCP6.0 represents a medium to high emissions scenario. Model projections do not account for effects of future socio-economic impacts.

Description: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.

Description: Niger has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Niger: (1) agroforestry and farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees, (2) integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), (3) irrigation and (4) improved fodder management for livestock. The impact assessment includes climate projections based on two future emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydrological modelling on water availability, modelling and comparison of future yields of four dominant crops (sorghum, millet, maize and cowpeas) and an as-sessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, the four adaptation strategies suggested by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, cost-effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is projected to increase further in Niger, up to +1.3 °C (SSP1-RCP2.6) and +4.2 °C (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, in reference to 2004. The mean annual precipitation sum is also projected to increase until 2050 under both emissions scenarios, with a slight decrease in the interannual variability. In the second half of the century, this trend in precipitation is likely to continue (SSP3-RCP7.0) or decrease slightly (SSP1-RCP2.6), while the year-to-year variability would increase. Greater annual rates of groundwater recharge due to increasing precipitation amounts and higher annual mean river discharge are expected until mid-century. Sorghum yields would decline in general, by 20-50% (SSP1-RCP2.6) or 40-75% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, compared to 2005. Crop models hinted at an increase in the suitability of sorghum and millet, and no significant change for maize and cowpeas in Niger under both emissions scenarios. In addition, the potential for multiple cropping would de-crease from mid-century, limiting farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, the grazing potential is likely to decrease in the south and increase in the central regions of Niger, under SSP1-RCP2.6, while it is expected to increase in the whole country under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, risk-independent, with a medium to high risk mitigation potential, and can bring about various co-benefits. FMNR practice can be highly recommended, as the upscaling potential is high and the climate resilience of local livelihoods will be strengthened. ISFM can help to improve water use efficiency and benefit from positive environmental and social outcomes. Irrigation has a medium potential to improve livelihoods of smallholder farmers but is also a support-intensive adaptation strategy that needs to be carefully implemented in order to avoid overexploitation of local water resources. Lastly, improved fodder management, especially al-falfa production, contributes to building up resilience of livestock farming systems and affects women and youth employment positively. Gener-ally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can yield additional benefits and active stake-holder engagement as well as participatory ap-proaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation as well as development planning and investments in order to strengthen the climate resilience of the Nigerien agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers.

Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.

Description: Cameroon has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of three potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Cameroon. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), assessing land cover changes, modelling and comparing future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (maize, cassava and cocoa) and an assessment of grassland productivity under future climate conditions. Further the study outlines gender-related challenges and opportunities in national adaptation planning. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, three different adaptation strategies ((1) Improved varieties, (2) Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and (3) Agroforestry), that were suggested and selected by different national stakeholders, were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-) effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literaturebased assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show, that by 2050 mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario and 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario compared to 2004. Some uncertainty exists for annual precipitation projections, the model ensemble projects an increase in precipitation, which is stronger under the high emissions scenario while also projecting an increase in precipitation intensity. Projected impacts of climate change on agricultural yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Maize yields will decrease in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone by up to 84 % by 2090 under SSP3-RCP7.0 and over 30 % of yield losses for cassava are projected for AEZ I and II by the end of the century under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. Significant positive cassava yield effects are projected in the (Guinean) High Savannah Zone, High Plateau (Western Highlands), and humid Mono- and Bimodal (Rain)forest Zones, respectively, under SSP1-RCP2.6. Crop models show that the areas suitable for maize and cocoa will decrease in Cameroon, especially under SSP3-RCP7.0, while the suitability for cassava will remain relatively stable. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All three adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, to have a high potential for risk mitigation and to entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended resulting in very positive effects for smallholder farmers, and the environment. Improving seeds has a high potential to improve livelihoods, but this adaptation strategy is also support-intensive. Lastly, agroforestry has a potential to reduce the impact of climate risks on cocoa production, but future climatic suitability needs to be considered. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Cameroon.

Description: Tiếp cận điện năng là vô cùng cần thiết để thúc đẩy kinh tế và phát triển con người. Đây cũng là một động lực quan trọng cho phát triển kinh tế của mỗi quốc gia. Tiếp cận các dạng năng lượng hiện đại, đặc biệt là điện năng, thậm chí còn quan trọng hơn nữa đối với việc phát triển kinh tế-xã hội khu vực nông thôn (có trình độ phát triển cơ sở hạ tầng thấp hơn so với khu vực thành thị). “Điện khí hóa toàn diện” nhằm đạt được các mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế-xã hội (cũng như các mục tiêu phát triển bền vững (SDG)) của Việt Nam sẽ đòi hỏi mọi hộ dân, gia đình, cơ sở sản xuất nông nghiệp, doanh nghiệp địa phương và cộng đồng dân cư nông thôn đều được tiếp cận điện năng 24/7. Để đạt được mục tiêu này, Chính phủ Việt Nam đã tập trung chủ yếu vào việc tạo điều kiện tiếp cận điện năng cho người dân bằng cách mở rộng lưới điện quốc gia. Gần 98% hộ dân ở thành thị và nông thôn Việt Nam đều được điện khí hóa thông qua phương thức này. Tuy nhiên, việc tiếp cận điện năng của 2 % dân số còn lại, tập trung chủ yếu ở các khu vực có điều kiện địa hình không thuận lợi cho việc mở rộng lưới điện quốc gia vẫn còn là vấn đề kinh tế-kỹ thuật cần bàn luận. Để giải quyết vấn đề này, các cuộc thảo luận đã được tiến hành nhằm tìm hiểu xem liệu các giải pháp hệ thống năng lượng tái tạo độc lập có hiệu quả chi phí cao có thể hỗ trợ cho công cuộc điện khí hóa cho 2 % dân số còn lại hay không cũng như thúc đẩy phát triển kinh tế-xã hội hơn nữa cho nhóm người này.

Description: Việt Nam có cơ hội chuyển dịch sang lộ trình quy hoạch các-bon thấp của ngành điện trong đó nhấn mạnh vào phát triển công nghệ năng lượng tái tạo, đặc biệt là điện gió và điện mặt trời – các nguồn năng lượng có chi phí đang giảm mạnh tại Việt Nam cũng như toàn thế giới. Tuy nhiên, các bên liên quan và các nhà lãnh đạo trên cả nước cần hiểu rõ và chuẩn bị kỹ lưỡng cho những tác động đến việc làm đi kèm, không chỉ tính riêng trong ngành năng lượng mà rộng hơn cho cả nền kinh tế. Nghiên cứu đã phân tích những tác động việc làm của nhiều kịch bản phát triển điện tại Việt Nam; nghiên cứu được thực hiện trong khuôn khổ dự án COBENEFITS với mục tiêu đánh giá đồng lợi ích của chuyển dịch năng lượng các-bon thấp trên cả nước. Xét đến sự phát triển của ngành điện Việt Nam trong tương lai, bốn kịch bản đã được phân tích: Quy hoạch Điện VII điều chỉnh của Bộ Công thương (kịch bản QHĐ VII (đc)), Kịch bản Chính sách của Cơ quan Năng lượng Đan Mạch (kịch bản Chính sách DEA), kịch bản các-bon thấp từ Ngân hàng Phát triển Châu Á “Con đường phát triển cácbon thấp cho Việt Nam” (kịch bản Các-bon thấp ADB), và kịch bản Cơ sở và Năng lượng Tái tạo từ Trung tâm Phát triển Sáng tạo Xanh (GreenID) (kịch bản Cở sở & NLTT). Báo cáo này nêu ra những tác động tới việc làm, với giả định rằng ngành điện tập trung vào tất cả các công nghệ phát điện được sử dụng trong quy hoạch điện của Chính phủ. Báo cáo cũng đưa ra đánh giá sơ bộ về yêu cầu trình độ kỹ năng và đào tạo chuyên môn cần thiết cho quy hoạch ngành điện hiện tại và tầm nhìn phát triển các-bon thấp trong tương lai của Việt Nam. Bốn kịch bản đều có các mốc thời gian từ năm 2015 đến năm 2030, tương tự với kịch bản QHĐ VII (đc) của Bộ Công thương.

Description: The COBENEFITS Policy Report for Vietnam compiles key findings from the COBENEFITS Vietnam Assessment series, quantifying the co-benefi ts of decarbonising Vietnam’s power sector in view of future-oriented employment and skills development and energy access, unlocking development in rural areas related to a less carbon-intensive power sector. The COBENEFITS Vietnam Assessment series can be accessed through www.cobenefi ts.info. Building on the opportunities presented, the report formulates a set of policy actions to allow government institutions to create an enabling political environment to unlock the social and economic co-benefi ts of the new energy world of renewables for the people of Vietnam. The policy options were generated through a series of roundtable dialogues and government consultations with government institutions, industry associations, and expert and civil society organisations during 2019 and 2020.