ALBERT

Note: CONTENTS: PREFACE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 THE ANTARCTIC ENVIRONMENT AND THE GLOBAL SYSTEM 1.1 THE PHYSICAL SETTING 1.2 THE ANTARCTIC CRYOSPHERE 1.3 THE ROLE OF THE ANTARCTIC IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM 1.4 OBSERVATIONS FOR STUDIES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE ANTARCTIC 1.5 THE CLIMATE OF THE ANTARCTIC AND ITS VARIABILITY 1.6 BIOTA OF THE ANTARCTIC 1.6.1 Terrestrial 1.6.2 Marine 2 OBSERVATIONS, DATA ACCURACY AND TOOLS 2.1 OBSERVATIONS, DATA ACCURACY AND TOOLS 2.1.1 Introduction 2.1.2 Meteorological and ozone observing in the Antarctic 2.1.3 In-situ ocean observations 2.1.4 Sea ice observations 2.1.5 Observations of the ice sheet and permafrost 2.1.6 Sea level 2.1.7 Marine biology 2.1.8 Terrestrial biology 2.1.9 Models 2.2 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS AND RESEARCH NEEDS 3 ANTARCTIC CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT HISTORY IN THE PREINSTRUMENTAL PERIOD 3.1 INTRODUCTION 3.2 DEEP TIME 3.2.1 The Greenhouse world: from Gondwana breakup to 34 million years 3.2.2 Into the Icehouse world: the last 34 million years 3.3 THE LAST MILLION YEARS 3.3.1 Glacial interglacial cycles: the ice core record 3.3.2 The transition to Holocene interglacial conditions: the ice core record 3.3.3 Deglaciation of the continental shelf, coastal margin and continental interior 3.3.4 Antarctic deglaciation and its impact on global sea level 3.3.5 Sea ice and climate 3.4 THE HOLOCENE 3.4.1 Holocene climate change: regional to hemispheric perspectives 3.4.2 Changes in sea ice extent through the Holocene 3.4.3 Regional patterns of Holocene climate change in Antarctica 3.5 BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE 3.5.1 The terrestrial environment 3.5.2 The marine environment 3.4.3 Regional patterns of Holocene climate change in Antarctica 3.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS 4 THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.2 CHANGES OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION 4.2.1 Modes of variability ..? 4.2.2 Depression tracks 4.2.3 Teleconnections 4.3 TEMPERATURE 4.3.1 Surface temperature 4.3.2 Upper air temperature changes 4.3.3 Attribution 4.4 CHANGES IN ANTARCTIC SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS 4.4.1 General spatial and temporal characteristics of Antarctic snowfall 4.4.2 Long-term Antarctic snowfall accumulation estimates 4.4.3 Recent trends in Antarctic snowfall 4.5 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY 4.5.1 Antarctic stratospheric ozone in the instrumental period 4.5.2 Antarctic tropospheric chemistry 4.5.3 Aerosol, clouds and radiation 4.6 THE SOUTHERN OCEAN 4.6.1 Introduction 4.6.2 Australian sector 4.6.3 The Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas 4.6.4 Variability and change in Ross Sea shelf waters 4.6.5 The Weddell Sea sector 4.6.6 Small-scale processes in the Southern Ocean 4.6.7 Dynamics of the circulation and water masses of the ACC and the polar gyres from model results 4.7 . ANTARCTIC SEA ICE COVER DURING THE INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD 4.7.1 Introduction 4.7.2 Sea ice cover in the pre-satellite era 4.7.3 Variability and trends in sea ice using satellite data 4.8 THE ICE SHEET AND PERMAFROST 4.8.1 Introduction 4.8.2 The Antarctic Peninsula 4.8.3 West Antarctica 4.8.4 East Antarctica 4.8.5 Calving 4.8.6 Sub-glacial water movement 4.8.7 Other changes in the ice sheet 4.8.8 Attribution of changes to the ice sheet 4.8.9 Conclusions regarding the ice sheet 4.8.10 Changes in Antarctic permafrost and active layer over the last 50 years 4.9 LONG TERM SEA LEVEL CHANGE 4.10 MARINE BIOLOGY 4.10.1 The open ocean system 4.10.2 Sea ice ecosystems 4.10.3 ENSO links and teleconnections to vertebrate life histories and population 4.10.4 Invertebrate physiology 4.10.5 Seasonality effect on the high Antarctic benthic shelf communities? 4.10.6 Macroalgal physiology and ecology 4.10.7 Marine/terrestrial pollution 4.11 BIOGEOCHEMISTRY - SOUTHERN OCEAN CARBON CYCLE RESPONSE TO HISTORICAL CLIMATE CHANGE 4.11.1 Introduction 4.11.2 CO2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean 4.11.3 Historical change - observed response 4.11.4 Historical change - simulated view 4.11.5 Changes in CO2 inventories 4.11.6 Concluding remarks 4.12 TERRESTRIAL BIOLOGY 5 THE NEXT 100 YEARS 5.1 INTRODUCTION 5.2 CLIMATE CHANGE 5.2.1 IPCC scenarios 5.2.2 Climate models 5.2.3 Atmospheric circulation 5.2.4 Temperature change over the Twenty First Century 5.2.5 Precipitation change over the Twenty First Century 5.2.6 Antarctic stratospheric ozone over the next 100 years 5.3 OCEAN CIRCULATION AND WATER MASSES 5.3.1 Simulation of present-day conditions in the Southern Hemisphere 5.3.2 Projections for the Twenty First Century 5.3.3 Long-term evolution of the Southern Ocean 5.3.4 Conclusions 5.4 SEA ICE CHANGE OVER THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY 5.5 THE TERRESTRIAL CRYOSPHERE 5.5.1 Introduction 5.5.2 East Antarctic ice sheet 5.5.3 West Antarctic ice sheet 5.5.4 Antarctic Peninsula 5.5.5 Conclusions 5.5.6 Summary and needs for future research 5.6 EVOLUTION OF ANTARCTIC PERMAFROST 5.7 PROJECTIONS OF SEA LEVEL IN ANTARCTIC AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS BY 2100 5.7.1 Regional projections of mean sea-level rise 5.8 BIOGEOCHEMISTRY - RESPONSE OF THE SOUTHERN OCEAN CARBON CYCLE TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE 5.8.1 Background 5.8.2 Future Southern Ocean carbon response 5.8.3 Response to increased CO2 uptake 5.8.4 Concluding remarks 5.9 BIOLOGY 5.9.1 Terrestrial Biology 5.9.2 Marine Biology 5.9.3 The Antarctic marine ecosystem in the year 2100 6 RECOMMENDATIONS 7 REFERENCES.